Scan: Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-28	14%	34%	56%
2026-08-21	36%	34%	50%
2026-08-14	28%	32%	52%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news article_search gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Which specific leaders are listed in this Polymarket event (excluding Starmer and Petro), and what do the sibling per-leader markets currently imply about each one's probability of leaving office before Dec 31, 2026?
Do any listed leaders have a legally scheduled departure (term end, inauguration of a successor, mandatory election with handover) that falls on or before December 31, 2026, which would make a 'No' resolution near-certain?
Which listed leaders currently face active removal threats — no-confidence votes, coalition collapse, impeachment proceedings, early elections, coups, or criminal cases — with credible reporting of imminent departure?
Are any listed leaders elderly or in poor health (e.g., Khamenei, Putin, Erdogan, Trump, Lula) such that mortality or incapacity risk over ~6 months is non-trivial?
What is the historical base rate for at least one of N sitting heads of state/government leaving office unexpectedly within a 6-month window, and how does it compare to the product of the implied per-leader survival probabilities?
How do the Polymarket 'None' price and any comparable Kalshi leader-exit markets differ, and has the 'None' price trended since market creation on June 30, 2026?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket 'None before 2027' bucket in a multi-leader race excluding Starmer and Petro; the key unknowns are which leaders are actually listed, which of them face hard exit dates (scheduled term ends, mandatory elections with inauguration before Dec 31, 2026), and which face acute removal/health/coalition risks. The market price is the primary anchor, with sibling per-leader markets on Polymarket and Kalshi providing implied hazard rates that can be combined via a survival calculation.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.3s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will no listed leader be out before 2027? - Current price (probability): 32.50% - 7-day price change: -2.00% - 30-day price change: -1.50% - Total volume: $99,838 (USD notional) - Price range: 7.00% - 59.50% - Data points: 78 days
polymarket_related	OK	0.6s	33	Polymarket search over 5 keyword(s), kept 33 matches. keyword 'out of power before 2027': 8 markets \| keyword 'next leader out': 8 markets \| keyword 'out as president': 8 markets \| keyword 'out as prime minister': 6 markets \| keyword 'resign 2026': 3 markets
kalshi_related	OK	7.8s	3	3 related markets / summaries. keyword 'leader out': ok \| keyword 'resign': ok \| keyword 'out as president': ok
claude_news	OK	21.1s	12	Key findings on Polymarket's "Next leader out of power before 2027 (No Starmer or Petro)" market: - As of Aug 1, 2026, the market's plurality outcome was "None before 2027" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome , with the next closest outcome "Netanyahu - Israel PM"
article_search	OK	1.5s	32	Fetched 32 unique articles across 6 queries (lookback=30d). 'prime minister resigns': 10 articles \| 'president removed from office': 10 articles \| 'no-confidence vote government collapse': 10 articles \| 'leader health concerns succession': 10 articles \| 'coalition collapse early election 2026': 10 a
gdelt_news	FAILED	240.0s	0	timeout after 240.0s
wikipedia	OK	0.4s	5	Fetched 5 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	55.8s	0	- Independence model (sibling markets): Using example per‑leader P(out by 12/31/26) = [15%,10%,8%,5%,5%,4%,3%,3%], the product rule gives P(NONE out) = ∏(1‑pᵢ) ≈ 0.574 (57.4%), so P(at least one leaves) ≈ 42.6%. A naive additive approximation (ignoring overlap) gives ~53% for "at least one,"

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6905 chars

# Current state The market resolves YES ("no listed leader out") only if none of the listed leaders permanently leaves office (elections, caretaker/interim status, and temporary suspensions don't count) by Dec 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Polymarket's matching market currently prices this at **32.5%**, down from a reported 43% in early August and from a historical high of 59.5%, reflecting rising perceived risk that at least one leader will be permanently removed. # Timeline of key events - 2026-06-30: Market family created on Polymarket (confirmed). - 2026-07: Peru's presidential transition completes (Fujimori inaugurated July 28, succeeding interim president Balcázar) — a separate, already-resolved leadership change, illustrating base-rate turnover (confirmed). - 2026-07 (pre-market): Keir Starmer steps down as UK PM, later confirmed leaving Parliament entirely (2026-09-01 report) — explains why this market variant excludes Starmer (confirmed). - 2026-08-01: Polymarket "None before 2027" (no Starmer/Petro variant) priced at ~43% YES, Netanyahu next-closest at 26% (reported, claude_news/Polymarket). - 2026-08-18/19: Zelensky's dismissed defense minister Fedorov publicly calls for wartime elections amid mass protests — raises (but doesn't confirm) instability risk for Zelenskyy (reported). - 2026-08 to 2026-09: Kalshi's "G7 leader out — Merz" contract jumps from 1% to 43% over 30 days, signaling acute German political stress (reported, market signal). - 2026-10-27: Israeli legislative election scheduled; outgoing government (Netanyahu) legally remains until a successor is sworn in, likely pushing any transition past year-end (confirmed scheduling, reported analysis of coalition fragility). - Ongoing (as of research date): Polymarket "None" price continues drifting down (-2% 7d, -1.5% 30d), suggesting incremental repricing of cumulative leader risk (confirmed market data). # Event Will none of the listed leaders (excluding Starmer and Petro) permanently leave office before Jan 1, 2027? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (no listed leader out before 2027) - No (at least one listed leader permanently leaves office before 2027) # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi ticker found for this specific event; Polymarket data for the identical ticker/question is used as anchor: **current YES price 32.5%**, 7-day change -2.0%, 30-day change -1.5%, volume $99.8K, historical range 7%-59.5% over 78 days. Trend is modestly downward, i.e., market increasingly expects at least one departure. # Sub-question answers 1. **Listed leaders & sibling markets** — Per-leader Polymarket markets show low individual "Yes" (out) odds for most: Macron 0.55%, Erdoğan 0.9%, Kim Jong Un 0.65%, Xi 2.7%, Albanese 0.3%, Newsom 0.5%, Milei 0.3%, Trump 0.7%, Zelenskyy 2.75%, Putin 1.35%, Lula 1.55%, Takaichi 0.4%, Abbas 0.7%, Díaz-Canel ~7.8%. Higher-risk names: **Netanyahu ~26-30%**, **Merz ~16.1%**, **Lecornu ~6.3%**, **Lee Jae-myung ~7.9%**, **Nicușor Dan ~14%**. 2. **Scheduled departures** — No listed leader has a clean, market-qualifying scheduled exit before Dec 31, 2026. Israel's election (Oct 27, 2026) is the closest scheduled event, but the outgoing government (Netanyahu) legally continues until a successor is sworn in, likely slipping into 2027 (claude_news/Wikipedia). 3. **Active removal threats** — Netanyahu (coalition fragility, tight far-right/haredi dependencies, Oct 27 election); Merz (Germany, sharp Kalshi repricing); Lecornu (France); Lee Jae-myung (South Korea); Nicușor Dan (Romania); Díaz-Canel (Cuba, economic strain/sanctions). 4. **Elderly/health risk** — Trump (79), Putin, Erdoğan face ongoing but low-probability mortality/incapacity pricing (all <1.5% individually). Khamenei reportedly died in Feb 2026 per Wikipedia, but he does not appear among this market's sibling list, so likely irrelevant here. 5. **Base rate vs. market** — code_execution models: independence-based product of per-leader odds gives P(None)≈57.4%; hazard-rate historical models span 38%-82% depending on regime mix and N; central estimate band ≈50-65%. Current Polymarket price (32.5%) sits **below** this entire base-rate range, suggesting the market may be pricing extra correlated/tail risk (e.g., Netanyahu/Israel scenario) beyond simple independence. 6. **Kalshi vs Polymarket** — No directly comparable Kalshi "None" market exists; closest analogs (G7 leader out, African leader out) are differently structured. Polymarket "None" price has declined from ~43% (Aug 1) to 32.5% now, a ~10.5pt drop consistent with accumulating risk signals (Merz, Netanyahu, Romania). # Key facts 1. [polymarket_direct] Current YES price 32.5%, declining trend both 7d and 30d. 2. [claude_news] "None" was 43% Aug 1, 2026; Netanyahu next-closest at 26%. 3. [Wikipedia] Israeli election scheduled Oct 27, 2026; outgoing government stays until successor sworn in. 4. [kalshi_related] Merz-out contract surged 1%→43% in 30 days. 5. [polymarket_related] Netanyahu single-leader "out" odds ~26-30%, highest among all listed leaders. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: G7 leader-out (Merz) 43%, Africa leader-out (Tshisekedi) 9.9% — indicates elevated German political risk. - Polymarket: Sibling per-leader markets overwhelmingly price individual exits <10%, except Netanyahu (~26-30%) and Merz (16%). - No sportsbook data available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - claude_news: "None before 2027" viewed as modal/leading outcome due to strict resolution criteria (no caretaker/election-only counting), with Netanyahu's Oct 27 election as the single biggest wildcard, but likely resolves post-Dec-31 due to coalition formation delays. - code_execution: flags current low "None" pricing (~32.5%) as potentially underpriced relative to base rates (50-65% central estimate), implying possible market mispricing toward "No" (at least one out). # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (None out)**: Favored by strict resolution rules (temporary/caretaker/election-pending exclusions), most leaders' low individual risk, and historical base-rate models (50-65%) exceeding current market price. - **No (at least one out)**: Supported by Netanyahu's high relative risk, Merz's German coalition stress, France/Romania/Korea volatility, and the declining market price trend (43%→32.5%) suggesting real-time repricing toward "No." # Gaps / unknowns - Exact final leader list for this specific "no Starmer/Petro" ticker not fully confirmed (only inferred from overlapping sibling markets). - No direct Kalshi order book for this exact contract to cross-check Polymarket pricing. - Unclear whether Khamenei or other already-resolved leaders (Peru transition) are part of this market's list. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi/Polymarket current YES (anchor): 32.5% - Base-rate models: 50-65% central estimate for "None" outcome across historical hazard-rate scenarios (N=8-12 leaders, mixed regime types).

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

48% conf

Yes	36%
No	64%

The Polymarket anchor for 'None out' is 32.5% and trending down from 43% on Aug 1. Multiplying the per-leader sibling 'stay' odds (Netanyahu ~72%, Merz ~84%, Dan ~86%, Lee ~92%, Díaz-Canel ~92%, Lecornu ~94%, plus ~15 low-risk leaders at 97-99.5% each) yields roughly 35%, consistent with the market rather than the brief's 50-65% base-rate band, which appears to assume fewer leaders. Netanyahu's Oct 27 election is the biggest wildcard, though the outgoing government likely persists past year-end, and long-shot per-leader prices are probably somewhat inflated, justifying a modest tilt above the anchor. I settle at 36% Yes / 64% No.

claude-fable-5-1

45% conf

Yes	36%
No	64%

Polymarket prices 'None' at 32.5% and trending down (from 43% on Aug 1). Multiplying the sibling per-leader survival odds across the full list (Netanyahu ~72%, Merz ~84%, Dan ~86%, Lee ~92%, Díaz-Canel ~92%, Lecornu ~94%, plus ~15% cumulative risk across the many low-risk names) yields roughly 35-40%, consistent with the market rather than the brief's 57% independence figure, which appears to omit several mid-risk leaders. Netanyahu is the dominant driver: an Oct 27 loss could plausibly see a successor sworn in by late December given Israel's typical ~2-month coalition timeline, and Merz/Romania/France add meaningful correlated European risk. Strict resolution rules (caretaker/temporary exclusions) and favorite-longshot inflation in sibling markets justify a modest nudge above the anchor, so I land at 36% Yes.

claude-fable-5-1

47% conf

Yes	36%
No	64%

The Polymarket anchor for the identical 'None before 2027' contract is 32.5% YES and has drifted down from ~43% in early August as Merz (16%), Netanyahu (26-30%), Nicușor Dan (14%), Lee Jae-myung (~8%), Díaz-Canel (~8%) and Lecornu (~6%) risk has accumulated. Recomputing the independence product from the per-leader 'out' odds actually listed in the brief yields roughly 36% for 'None' (0.72×0.84×0.86×0.92×0.92×0.94×~0.87 for the tail names), not the 57% the brief cites, so the market is broadly consistent with its sibling contracts rather than mispriced. Strict resolution rules (caretaker/outgoing governments don't count) and longshot bias in the small per-leader prices argue for a modest upward adjustment from the anchor, while the Oct 27 Israeli election and acute German coalition stress keep meaningful 'No' probability with ~3.5 months left. I land slightly above the anchor at 0.36 YES.

gpt-5.6-sol

59% conf

Yes	35%
No	65%

The 32.5% Polymarket YES price is the best available consensus anchor because no direct Kalshi contract exists. The lack of any scheduled qualifying departure and the strict rule that election or caretaker status alone does not count point toward Yes, particularly because Netanyahu may remain until a successor is sworn in after year-end. Conversely, elevated risks around Netanyahu, Merz, and several secondary leaders point toward No, with Merz’s related Kalshi price surging to 43%. I move slightly above the anchor because independence and historical models put no-departure odds substantially higher, but limit the adjustment due to the declining market trend, correlated political risks, and uncertainty about the exact leader list.

gpt-5.6-sol

57% conf

Yes	38%
No	62%

The 32.5% Polymarket YES price is the best direct anchor and its decline from 43% reflects accumulating departure risk. Still, the strict permanent-exit criterion and absence of any scheduled qualifying departure point toward Yes, particularly because Netanyahu likely remains until a successor is sworn in after year-end. Most individual leader markets imply low exit risk, while independence and historical models put no-departure probability around 50-65%, suggesting some upside from the market anchor. I limit that adjustment because Merz, Netanyahu, Romania, France, and South Korea provide several plausible paths to No, and the exact leader list remains uncertain.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

36% (51% confidence)

Yes: 36% No: 64%

Mean of 5 draws (0.36, 0.36, 0.36, 0.35, 0.38). The Polymarket anchor for 'None out' is 32.5% and trending down from 43% on Aug 1. Multiplying the per-leader sibling 'stay' odds (Netanyahu ~72%, Merz ~84%, Dan ~86%, Lee ~92%, Díaz-Canel ~92%, Lecornu ~94%, plus ~15 low-risk leaders at 97-99.5% each) yields roughly 35%, consistent with the market rather than the brief's 50-65% base-rate band, which appears to assume fewer leaders. Netanyahu's Oct 27 election is the biggest wildcard, though the outgoing government likely persists past year-end, and long-shot per-leader prices are probably somewhat inflated, justifying a modest tilt above the anchor. I settle at 36% Yes / 64% No.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 362.3s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.