Scan: Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-09-07	32%	26%	46%
2026-08-28	30%	23%	44%
2026-08-19	22%	16%	42%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source claude_news article_search gdelt_news wikipedia kalshi_related polymarket_related code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the historical base rate of Category 1+ hurricane landfalls in the State of Hawaii per year (how many since 1950, and does the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands inclusion add cases)?
What is the ENSO forecast for the 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season (El Niño vs La Niña), and what does NOAA/CPHC's 2026 seasonal outlook predict for Central Pacific tropical cyclone activity?
Have any tropical cyclones in 2026 so far (since market creation ~July 21, 2026) approached or threatened Hawaii, and what is the current state of the Central Pacific basin per CPHC advisories?
How often do hurricanes pass within striking distance of Hawaii (e.g., Lane 2018, Douglas 2020, Dora 2023, Hone 2024) without making landfall at Cat 1+, and what fraction of close approaches historically resulted in a qualifying landfall?
What is the current Polymarket price and volume, and do related Kalshi/Polymarket hurricane markets imply a consistent probability?
Is there any ambiguity in how CPHC reports 'landfall' for Hawaii (e.g., Hone 2024 skirting the Big Island) that could make resolution more or less likely than the physical base rate?

Planner reasoning

This is a low-base-rate climatological question: only two hurricanes (Dot 1959, Iniki 1992) have made recorded landfall on Hawaii at hurricane strength, so the annual base rate is roughly 2-4% — though ENSO state (El Niño boosts Central Pacific activity) and the 2026 season outlook could shift that. The market resolves on CPHC advisories, so the current CPHC page state and the 2026 season status matter. Polymarket price is the primary anchor; Kalshi may have a correlated Hawaii/hurricane market.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.3s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? - Current price (probability): 15.00% - 7-day price change: -2.00% - 30-day price change: -1.50% - Total volume: $40,056 (USD notional) - Price range: 6.50% - 56.00% - Data points: 55 days
resolution_source	OK	4.4s	1	already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=False; last_updated=unknown. The fetched pages only provide general definitions (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale categories and NHC/CPHC glossary terms like 'landfall', 'hurricane', 'advisory') with no actual storm advisories, tropical cyclone activity
claude_news	OK	27.3s	12	Here are the key findings from research on the 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season and Hawaii landfall risk: Seasonal Outlook & ENSO - NOAA's 2026 Central Pacific outlook (issued ~May 2026) called for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% cha
article_search	OK	0.9s	19	Fetched 19 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=90d). 'Hawaii hurricane 2026': 10 articles \| 'Central Pacific hurricane season 2026 outlook': 10 articles \| 'tropical storm Hawaii landfall': 10 articles \| 'El Nino forecast 2026 hurricane season': 10 articles
gdelt_news	OK	147.8s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'Hawaii hurricane': 10 hits \| 'Central Pacific Hurricane Center': 10 hits \| 'hurricane Hawaii landfall': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
wikipedia	OK	0.6s	5	Fetched 5 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
kalshi_related	OK	2.8s	1	1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Hawaii hurricane': ok \| keyword 'hurricane landfall': no matches \| keyword 'hurricane': no matches
polymarket_related	OK	0.6s	10	Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 10 matches. keyword 'hurricane': 5 markets \| keyword 'Hawaii': 0 markets \| keyword 'landfall': 5 markets
code_execution	OK	27.8s	0	## Base Rate Calculations: Hawaii Hurricane Landfall Historical base rate (1950–2025, ~75 years) - 2 qualifying Cat 1+ landfalls (Dot 1959, Iniki 1992) → annual λ = 2/75 = 0.0267/yr - Implied annual probability of at least one landfall (Poisson): ~2.6%/year **El Niño–conditioned rate (

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6788 chars

# Current state The market is still open (Polymarket price 15% YES, not resolved to 0/100), implying the market consensus is that no qualifying Category 1+ CPHC-confirmed landfall has yet occurred despite two close calls (Lala, Lowell) in 2026. Reporting on Hurricane Lala is contradictory: some outlets (Wikipedia, CNN pre-storm coverage) describe it as "the first hurricane to directly hit the Big Island since 1871," while post-storm CNBC reporting says Lala's "eyewall skirted Hawaii without making landfall" as it weakened to a tropical storm. No CPHC advisory data was found via direct resolution-source fetch to adjudicate this. # Timeline of key events - 1959-08-06: Hurricane Dot makes landfall on Kauai as minimal hurricane (confirmed, historical). - 1992-09-11: Hurricane Iniki makes Cat 4 landfall on Kauai — last confirmed Hawaii hurricane landfall pre-2026 (confirmed, historical). - 2018: Tropical Storm Olivia makes landfall on Maui, but as tropical storm (sub-hurricane), not a qualifying event (confirmed, historical). - 2026-07-20/21: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Fausto forms in East Pacific, forecast to strengthen toward Central Pacific (reported). - 2026-07-28: Hurricane Genevieve reaches Cat 5; Fausto weakens to tropical storm near Hawaii, no landfall (reported). - 2026-08-13/16: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Lala threatens Big Island; state of emergency declared; storm reaches Cat 1 (~75mph) near/at the Big Island on 2026-08-15; CNBC (post-event) reports eyewall "skirted Hawaii without making landfall," while Wikipedia's season summary calls it "the first hurricane to directly hit the Big Island... since 1871" (conflicting/rumored — unresolved per market price). - 2026-08-29 to 09-06: Tropical Storm/Hurricane Lowell forms, becomes 2nd Cat 5 of season, tracks to pass north/west or south of Hawaii; tropical storm warnings issued for Kauai/Niʻihau; no landfall reported (reported). - 2026-09-04: "Triple threat" — three simultaneous Pacific hurricanes reported (reported). - 2026-09 (ongoing): NOAA CPC reports El Niño strengthening, >90% chance of very strong event fall/winter 2026-27 (confirmed forecast product). # Event Will any storm make landfall in Hawaii at Category 1+ strength (per CPHC advisories) between market creation (~2026-07-21) and 2026-12-31? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi price returned (only unrelated stadium market via keyword search). Anchor instead on Polymarket for same event: **YES = 15%** as of latest data, down 2pts (7d) and 1.5pts (30d), off a season-high of 56% (likely during Lala's peak threat) and low of 6.5%. Volume $40K over 55 days — thin but directionally informative. # Resolution source CPHC advisory page (nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/) returned no content (0 chars); only static definition pages (Saffir-Simpson scale, glossary) were retrievable. No actual 2026 advisory/landfall data was accessible via direct fetch. Status: unresolved/unclear from primary source; cannot confirm or deny Lala/Lowell landfall status directly from CPHC. # Sub-question answers 1. **Historical base rate**: ~2 confirmed Cat 1+ Hawaii landfalls in ~75 years (Dot 1959, Iniki 1992) → ~2.7%/yr base rate (Wikipedia, code_execution). NWI inclusion adds no known additional cases. 2. **2026 ENSO/CPHC outlook**: NOAA's May 2026 outlook gave 70% chance above-normal season (5-13 CPac cyclones), driven by expected El Niño; as of Sept 2026, CPC reports El Niño strengthening toward possibly "very strong" (>90% confidence) — historically correlates with elevated CPac activity (weather.gov, cpc.ncep.noaa.gov). 3. **2026 storms to date**: Fausto (late July, weakened before Hawaii), Genevieve (Cat 5, no Hawaii threat), Lala (mid-Aug, reached Cat 1 near/at Big Island — landfall status disputed), Lowell (early Sept, Cat 5, passed near but not confirmed landfall) (claude_news, article_search, gdelt_news). 4. **Close-approach base rate**: ~8 close approaches in 75 years vs. 2 landfalls → ~25% conditional landfall rate given a close approach (code_execution); Lane 2018, Douglas 2020, Dora 2023, Hone 2024 all skirted without qualifying landfall. 5. **Cross-market pricing**: Polymarket YES=15%, consistent in shape with other landfall-style state markets (TX 14.5%, LA 14.5%, MS 2%, AL 6.5%) — suggests market treats Hawaii similarly to a moderate-risk Gulf state late in season, not as "already resolved." 6. **Ambiguity in landfall reporting**: Yes — Hurricane Lala is the key ambiguity. Wikipedia calls it a direct hit; CNBC (post-storm) says eyewall "skirted... without making landfall." This exact type of ambiguity (cf. Hone 2024 near-miss) is central to resolution risk. # Key facts 1. [Wikipedia] Only 2 confirmed Cat 1+ Hawaii hurricane landfalls since 1950 (Dot 1959, Iniki 1992). 2. [CNBC 2026-08-16] Lala reached Cat 1 (75mph) near Hawaii but "eyewall skirted Hawaii without making landfall." 3. [Wikipedia 2026 season page] Describes Lala as "first hurricane to directly hit the Big Island... since 1871" — contradicts #2. 4. [NOAA CPC] El Niño strengthening, >90% chance very strong event fall/winter 2026-27 — favors above-normal CPac activity. 5. [Polymarket] Current YES 15%, down from 56% high (likely Lala peak) — market believes landfall has NOT yet been confirmed. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no direct/relevant match found. - Polymarket: YES 15%, declining trend, thin volume ($40K). - Sportsbook implied: n/a. # Analyst opinions and speculation - code_execution model: strict-landfall fair value ~3-7% for remaining season (Aug-Dec) under El Niño enhancement; broader "close approach" interpretation could imply 15-25%. - Historical framing (howtoliveinhawaii.com): reiterates rarity of direct landfalls even in active/El Niño years. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: El Niño-driven above-normal season, two hurricane-strength systems already grazed Hawaii (Lala, Lowell), Wikipedia's ambiguous "direct hit" framing, season continues through Nov 30. - **No**: Post-storm CNBC reporting explicitly denies Lala landfall; Polymarket price only 15% (not resolved/near-100%); historical base rate is very low (~2.7%/yr); Lowell and other storms passed without landfall; CPHC primary source inaccessible/unconfirmed. # Gaps / unknowns - No verified CPHC advisory confirms or denies Lala's landfall status — core resolution ambiguity. - Unclear whether market already priced in a Lala "No" determination or is still awaiting CPHC clarification/correction. - Remaining season (through Nov 30) storm activity beyond Lowell not covered in research. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price: 15% (primary anchor, declining). - Historical annual base rate: ~2.6-2.7%; El Niño-adjusted range 4-7% for partial season; broader near-miss inclusive range 15-25%.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

47% conf

Yes	16%
No	84%

The Polymarket anchor of 15% YES (down from a 56% peak during Lala's threat) indicates the market believes Hurricane Lala did not produce a qualifying CPHC landfall, consistent with CNBC's post-storm report that the eyewall 'skirted Hawaii without making landfall.' The historical base rate of Cat 1+ Hawaii landfalls is ~2.7%/yr, and even with a strengthening El Niño boosting Central Pacific activity, the remaining season (through Nov 30) implies only ~4-7% strict-landfall probability. However, residual resolution ambiguity around Lala (Wikipedia's 'direct hit' framing) and the unusually active season justify staying near the market price rather than the pure base rate. I land slightly above the market to reflect the unresolved Lala dispute and possible late-season El Niño storms.

claude-fable-5-1

52% conf

Yes	13%
No	87%

The Polymarket anchor is 15% YES and declining from a 56% peak during Hurricane Lala's approach, indicating the market judged that Lala (CNBC: 'eyewall skirted Hawaii without making landfall') and Lowell did not produce a qualifying Cat 1+ CPHC landfall. The historical strict-landfall base rate is ~2.7%/yr (only Dot 1959 and Iniki 1992), and even with a strengthening El Niño the remaining Sept-Nov window implies roughly 4-7% fair value for a new landfall. Residual YES probability comes from the unresolved Lala ambiguity (Wikipedia's 'direct hit' framing, possible CPHC post-season reanalysis) plus tail risk of a late-season El Niño-enhanced storm. Netting these, I sit slightly below the thin-volume market price at 13%.

claude-fable-5-1

46% conf

Yes	14%
No	86%

The Polymarket anchor sits at 15% YES and has drifted down from a 56% peak during Hurricane Lala's approach, indicating the market does not believe a qualifying CPHC-confirmed Cat 1+ landfall has occurred; post-storm CNBC reporting explicitly says Lala's eyewall skirted the Big Island without landfall, though Wikipedia's 'direct hit' framing leaves residual adjudication risk (e.g., a CPHC post-season report). The historical base rate is extremely low (~2 landfalls in 75 years, ~2.7%/yr), and even El Niño-enhanced seasons like 2018 and 2024 produced only near-misses. With roughly 2.5 months of season left under a strengthening El Niño, remaining-season strict-landfall risk is perhaps 4-7%, and adding a modest probability that Lala is retroactively classified as a landfall yields something near the market price. I stay close to the anchor at ~14% YES.

gpt-5.6-sol

58% conf

Yes	14%
No	86%

The 15% Polymarket YES price is the primary anchor and indicates traders do not regard Lala as a confirmed qualifying landfall. Historical evidence strongly favors No—only two Category 1+ Hawaii landfalls occurred in roughly 75 years—and CNBC specifically reported that Lala’s eyewall skirted Hawaii without making landfall. Strengthening El Niño and an above-normal season elevate the residual risk above the historical base rate, while Wikipedia’s contradictory description creates additional resolution uncertainty. I shade YES slightly below the market to 14% because the post-event reporting and declining market price both favor a near miss rather than an already-satisfied condition.

gpt-5.6-sol

56% conf

Yes	15%
No	85%

The 15% Polymarket YES price is the best available consensus anchor and indicates Lala has not been treated as a confirmed qualifying landfall. The historical rate of roughly two hurricane landfalls in 75 years points toward No, while the strengthening El Niño and above-normal Central Pacific activity modestly elevate the remaining-season risk. Lala creates material resolution uncertainty because Wikipedia describes a direct hit, but post-storm CNBC reporting explicitly says its eyewall skirted Hawaii without landfall; Lowell was likewise only a close approach. With CPHC advisory data unavailable, there is not enough source-specific evidence to move materially away from the 15% anchor.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

14% (52% confidence)

Yes: 14% No: 86%

Mean of 5 draws (0.16, 0.13, 0.14, 0.14, 0.15). The Polymarket anchor of 15% YES (down from a 56% peak during Lala's threat) indicates the market believes Hurricane Lala did not produce a qualifying CPHC landfall, consistent with CNBC's post-storm report that the eyewall 'skirted Hawaii without making landfall.' The historical base rate of Cat 1+ Hawaii landfalls is ~2.7%/yr, and even with a strengthening El Niño boosting Central Pacific activity, the remaining season (through Nov 30) implies only ~4-7% strict-landfall probability. However, residual resolution ambiguity around Lala (Wikipedia's 'direct hit' framing) and the unusually active season justify staying near the market price rather than the pure base rate. I land slightly above the market to reflect the unresolved Lala dispute and possible late-season El Niño storms.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 226.9s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.