Scan: Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-20	8%	10%	68%
2026-08-13	8%	11%	70%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Polymarket YES price and how has it trended over the past 90 days?
What is the status of Lee Jae-myung's pending criminal trials (election law, Daejang-dong, perjury, remittance cases) — have courts suspended them under Article 84 or could a conviction/detention plausibly occur in 2026?
Does the Democratic Party retain a National Assembly majority sufficient to block any impeachment motion (which needs 200 of 300 votes), and is there any active impeachment effort?
What are Lee's current approval ratings and is there any mass protest movement or elite/military pressure that could force resignation?
Are there any reports about Lee's health or any stated intention to resign or hold an early election?
What is the historical base rate of South Korean presidents ceasing to hold office in a given year of their term (excluding scheduled term end)?

Planner reasoning

Lee Jae-myung became South Korea's president in June 2025 after Yoon's removal; the question is whether he leaves office in 2026, roughly a year into a 5-year term. Key drivers are his ongoing criminal cases (and whether courts proceed against a sitting president under Article 84 immunity), impeachment risk given his party's National Assembly majority, health/age, and general base rates for premature exits. The Polymarket price is the primary anchor, supplemented by news on legal proceedings and approval ratings.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.5s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? - Current price (probability): 7.85% - 7-day price change: -1.05% - 30-day price change: -2.20% - Total volume: $281,639 (USD notional) - Price range: 6.90% - 11.50% - Data points: 90 days
polymarket_related	OK	0.5s	3	Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 3 matches. keyword 'Lee Jae-myung': 3 markets \| keyword 'South Korea president': 0 markets \| keyword 'South Korea impeachment': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	4.6s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Lee Jae-myung': ok \| keyword 'South Korea president': ok
article_search	OK	0.7s	26	Fetched 26 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=60d). 'Lee Jae-myung trial suspended Article 84 sitting president': 10 articles \| 'Lee Jae-myung impeachment motion National Assembly': 10 articles \| 'Lee Jae-myung approval rating': 10 articles \| 'Lee Jae-myung resign OR health OR early election
claude_news	OK	23.2s	18	## Findings on Lee Jae-myung's Risk of Leaving Office in 2026 - Trials suspended under Article 84 immunity: The Seoul High Court postponed President Lee Jae-myung's retrial on election law violation charges, saying the first hearing was postponed to an undetermined future date in accordance wi
gdelt_news	OK	159.6s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=30d). 'Lee Jae-myung impeachment': 10 hits \| 'Lee Jae-myung trial': 10 hits \| '이재명 탄핵': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
wikipedia	OK	0.2s	2	Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	51.9s	0	## Base-Rate Analysis: Premature Exit Risk for Lee Jae-myung in 2026 Historical sample (8 directly-elected presidents, 1988–present, single 5-year terms): - 6 of 8 (75%) served their full term: Roh Tae-woo, Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun, Lee Myung-bak, Moon Jae-in - **2 of 8 (25

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7739 chars

# Current state Lee Jae-myung remains sitting President of South Korea; the resolution criterion is any cessation of office (resignation, removal, incapacitation) between market creation and Dec 31, 2026. As of Sept 2026, no impeachment motion is active, no resignation has been announced, and his four pending criminal cases remain frozen under Article 84 presidential immunity — none of these currently threaten his tenure, though approval ratings have been sliding to record lows. # Timeline of key events - 2025-06-04: Lee inaugurated as president following Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment/removal (confirmed, Wikipedia). - 2026-02 (approx): Seoul High Court indefinitely postpones Lee's election-law retrial, citing Article 84 constitutional immunity for a sitting president (confirmed, koreaherald.com). - 2026-08 (mid): 105 DP lawmakers form group pushing to drop all charges against Lee, calling them "fabricated"; National Assembly passes Criminal Procedure Act revision (175-2, PPP boycott) curbing prosecutorial powers; Lee signs rather than vetoes (confirmed, koreaherald.com/koreajoongangdaily.com). - 2026-08-24: Justice minister resigns; Lee accepts resignation (confirmed, koreatimes.co.kr). - 2026-09-01: Top policy adviser Kim Yong-beom resigns (confirmed, koreaherald.com). - 2026-09-03/04: New justice minister nominee Kim Seung-won states he will NOT seek to drop charges against Lee — cases remain formally pending (confirmed, en.sedaily.com). - 2026-09-04 to 09-15: Approval polls show steady decline — Gallup 40%→38%, Hani/other poll 43%, Realmeter 33.8% (record low, 9th consecutive weekly decline) — driven by Cabinet nominee controversies, housing prices, constitutional reform debate, prosecution reform (confirmed multi-source, koreaherald/khan/sbs/joongang). - 2026-09-08/10: Lee conducts state visit to France, meets Macron; states publicly his presidential term is "clearly limited by constitution" (confirmed, KBS/Korea.net) — signals no early-election intent, addresses reform debate not personal tenure. - 2026-09-17/18 (reported): Lee to hold press conference addressing Cabinet controversies, criminal charges, constitutional revision (reported, koreajoongangdaily.com). # Event Will Lee Jae-myung cease to be President of South Korea (resign, be removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from serving) at any point between market creation and Dec 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct price returned in this research pull. Closest same-platform proxy: Kalshi's related market "Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? — Yes" (KXFULLTERMSKPRES-29) trades at 54% (down 3pts/7d, down 16pts/30d, range 5.8%-82%, thin volume ~182 contracts/day). Note this market spans the full 5-year term (through ~2030), not just 2026, so it is not directly comparable — implied "not full term" (~46%) overstates 2026-specific risk. # Resolution source Not run — no resolution_source tool result provided. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket YES price/trend** — 7.85% currently, down from a 90-day range high of 11.5%/low of 6.9%; 7d -1.05pp, 30d -2.2pp; $281.6K volume — trending down, i.e., market sees falling removal risk (polymarket_direct). 2. **Trial status/Article 84** — All four criminal cases (election law, Daejang-dong, perjury, remittances) suspended per Article 84 immunity for sitting presidents (exempted except insurrection/treason); Seoul High Court indefinitely postponed retrial (koreaherald.com). No plausible 2026 conviction/detention path while immunity holds; justice ministry has explicitly ruled out dropping charges but also isn't pursuing them (en.sedaily.com). 3. **National Assembly majority/impeachment** — DP-aligned bloc (including the 105-member pro-Lee group) holds a size comparable to or larger than the 107-seat opposition PPP, giving DP a working majority far short of PPP being able to reach the 200/300 threshold needed for impeachment; no impeachment motion exists (claude_news synthesis). 4. **Approval ratings/protest** — Approval falling steadily: Gallup 40%→38%, Realmeter record-low 33.8% (9th straight weekly decline), Hani poll 43%; disapproval up to 51-63%. Declines driven by Cabinet nominee controversies, housing policy, constitutional reform debate — no mass protest movement or elite/military pressure for resignation identified in any source. 5. **Health/resignation/early election** — No health issues found (only pre-presidency 2024 assassination attempt cited). Lee explicitly stated his term is "clearly limited by constitution," implying no early election intent; he is actively managing controversies via press conferences, not signaling resignation (KBS, koreajoongangdaily.com). 6. **Historical base rate** — Of 8 directly-elected presidents since 1988, 2 (25%) were removed early (Park Geun-hye yr4, Yoon Suk Yeol yr3), both via impeachment/Constitutional Court; zero were removed in years 1-2 of term. Smoothed estimate for Lee's year-1/2 (2026) ≈ 10-24%/year after adjusting for his unusual multi-case legal exposure (code_execution analysis). # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [koreaherald.com] All Lee's criminal trials suspended under Article 84 immunity since Feb 2026. 2. [koreajoongangdaily.com] DP-aligned bloc size rivals/exceeds PPP's 107 seats — impeachment threshold (200/300) unreachable. 3. [Realmeter/Gallup/Hani, Sept 2026] Approval sliding to record lows (33.8%-43% depending on pollster), disapproval majority. 4. [KBS, 2026-09-10] Lee affirms his term is constitutionally limited — no early-exit signaling. 5. [Wikipedia] Historical precedent: only 2/14 SK presidents removed early, both via impeachment (Park Geun-hye, Yoon Suk Yeol), never in year 1-2. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: "Serve full term" market at 54% YES (implying ~46% risk over full 5-yr term, not 2026-specific) — down sharply 30d, suggesting rising broader concern but longer horizon. - Polymarket (same event): 7.85% YES, drifting down over 90 days. - No sportsbook data available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Editorial commentary (Korea Herald "[Editorial] Unchecked party") frames DP's dominance and prosecution-law changes as concerning for checks-and-balances, but doesn't suggest removal risk to Lee himself. - No credible analyst source predicts resignation/removal in 2026; discourse centers on approval decline and constitutional reform for future terms, not current tenure risk. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (out in 2026)**: Weak support — falling approval ratings, unprecedented scale of pending legal cases (even if frozen), some Kalshi 30d downward momentum on the "full term" proxy market. - **No (stays in office)**: Strong support — Article 84 immunity blocks legal jeopardy; DP controls Assembly, no impeachment motion; no resignation/health signals; historical base rate near-zero for years 1-2; Polymarket pricing trending toward lower risk (7.85%, falling). # Gaps / unknowns - No live Kalshi YES price for this specific ticker was returned. - No polling on whether public wants Lee to resign specifically (only general approval). - Unclear how Kalshi's "full term" market's 16pt 30-day drop reconciles with Polymarket's declining Yes price for the same underlying risk — possible mispricing/arbitrage opportunity or reflects different time horizons. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES for identical question: 7.85% (primary reference given no kalshi_direct). - Kalshi related "full-term" market implies ~46% risk over 5 years (not 2026-specific; likely overstates near-term risk). - Historical base rate for SK president removal in term-years 1-2: 0% (n=8), smoothed to ~10-24%/year with legal-case adjustment.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

72% conf

Yes	4%
No	96%

With roughly 3.5 months remaining in 2026, every plausible exit path is structurally blocked: all four criminal cases are frozen under Article 84 immunity (Seoul High Court indefinitely postponed the retrial), the DP-aligned bloc controls the Assembly making the 200/300 impeachment threshold unreachable, no impeachment motion exists, and Lee has explicitly affirmed his constitutionally limited term with no resignation or health signals. Falling approval (Realmeter 33.8%) is a political headache but has no mechanism to remove a president absent legislative or judicial action in this window. No direct Kalshi price was available; Polymarket's 7.85% YES (trending down) is the closest anchor, and the Kalshi 'full term' proxy at 54% spans five years so overstates 2026 risk. Given the short remaining horizon and the historical 0% base rate for removal in years 1-2, I discount somewhat below Polymarket, which likely carries longshot premium, leaving ~4% for tail events (sudden health incident, unforeseen scandal cascade).

claude-fable-5-1

72% conf

Yes	5%
No	95%

With roughly 3.5 months left in 2026, every mechanism for removal is structurally blocked: Article 84 immunity has frozen all four criminal cases (Seoul High Court indefinitely postponed the retrial), the DP-aligned bloc controls the Assembly so the 200/300 impeachment threshold is unreachable and no motion exists, and Lee explicitly affirmed his constitutionally limited term with no resignation or health signals. Falling approval (Realmeter 33.8%) is a political headache but historically has never removed a Korean president in years 1-2, and both prior removals took months-long impeachment/Constitutional Court processes that could not plausibly complete by Dec 31. No Kalshi-direct price was available; the Polymarket price of 7.85% (trending down) is the closest anchor, and the Kalshi 'full term' proxy at 54% covers a 5-year horizon so it overstates 2026 risk. I shade below Polymarket given longshot bias and the short remaining window, leaving a small residual for black-swan events (health, sudden scandal-driven resignation).

claude-fable-5-1

72% conf

Yes	4%
No	96%

With roughly 3.5 months left in 2026, every plausible removal channel is blocked: Article 84 immunity has frozen all four criminal cases (Seoul High Court indefinitely postponed the retrial), the DP-aligned bloc controls the Assembly so the 200/300 impeachment threshold is unreachable and no motion exists, and Lee has explicitly affirmed his term is 'constitutionally limited' while actively managing controversies rather than signaling resignation. Sliding approval (Realmeter 33.8%) is a headwind but historically no Korean president has been removed in years 1-2, and both prior removals took many months of impeachment/Constitutional Court process that cannot fit in the remaining window. No Kalshi direct price was available; the Polymarket price of 7.85% (trending down) is the primary anchor, and I shade below it given typical long-shot inflation and the short horizon, leaving residual mass mainly for health/incapacitation or an unforeseen shock. The Kalshi 'full term' proxy at 54% covers a 5-year horizon and is not informative for 2026-specific risk.

gpt-5.6-sol

79% conf

Yes	6%
No	94%

With no direct Kalshi price, the closest event-specific anchor is Polymarket’s 7.85% YES, while Kalshi’s 46% implied risk concerns the much longer full-term horizon. Article 84 has frozen all four criminal cases, eliminating the most immediate conviction or detention path during 2026. Lee’s DP-aligned legislative majority makes impeachment effectively unreachable, and there is no active motion, resignation signal, health crisis, or mass protest campaign. Falling approval ratings leave some tail risk, but the short remaining horizon and declining Polymarket price support a modest move below the 7.85% anchor.

gpt-5.6-sol

82% conf

Yes	6%
No	94%

The closest direct anchor is Polymarket's 7.85% YES price, which has been trending downward; Kalshi's 46% implied risk concerns the much longer full-term horizon and therefore overstates 2026 risk. Article 84 has frozen all four criminal cases, while the DP-aligned legislative majority makes the 200-vote impeachment threshold unreachable absent a major political rupture. Although approval has fallen as low as 33.8%, there is no impeachment motion, mass resignation campaign, health problem, or indication that Lee intends to leave office. With only several months remaining in 2026 and no established removal mechanism, I place YES slightly below the direct market anchor.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

5% (75% confidence)

Yes: 5% No: 95%

Mean of 5 draws (0.04, 0.05, 0.04, 0.07, 0.07). With roughly 3.5 months remaining in 2026, every plausible exit path is structurally blocked: all four criminal cases are frozen under Article 84 immunity (Seoul High Court indefinitely postponed the retrial), the DP-aligned bloc controls the Assembly making the 200/300 impeachment threshold unreachable, no impeachment motion exists, and Lee has explicitly affirmed his constitutionally limited term with no resignation or health signals. Falling approval (Realmeter 33.8%) is a political headache but has no mechanism to remove a president absent legislative or judicial action in this window. No direct Kalshi price was available; Polymarket's 7.85% YES (trending down) is the closest anchor, and the Kalshi 'full term' proxy at 54% spans five years so overstates 2026 risk. Given the short remaining horizon and the historical 0% base rate for removal in years 1-2, I discount somewhat below Polymarket, which likely carries longshot premium, leaving ~4% for tail events (sudden health incident, unforeseen scandal cascade).

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 231.4s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.