Scan: Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-09-10	17%	27%	62%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct claude_news article_search gdelt_news polymarket_related kalshi_related wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Polymarket YES price and how has it trended over the past 90 days?
Is there any active impeachment request against Moraes advancing in the Brazilian Senate, and has Senate President Alcolumbre (or successor) signaled willingness to process it?
Have US sanctions (Magnitsky Act, visa revocations) on Moraes escalated or been lifted, and is there any credible reporting that they are pushing him toward resignation?
Are there any reports about Moraes's health, age-related retirement plans, or interest in another position (e.g., running for office, TSE) that could trigger a departure before 2027?
How many STF justices have ever been removed or resigned under pressure historically, and what is the base rate of a sitting justice leaving in a given ~1-year window?
Is there a mechanism (Lula government or STF itself) that would practically allow removal, and does the current Senate composition come anywhere near the 2/3 majority needed?
Do related Kalshi/Polymarket markets on Brazilian politics (Bolsonaro, 2026 election, Lula) imply shifts in the political environment that affect Moraes's position?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket politics question about whether Alexandre de Moraes leaves Brazil's STF before end of 2026. Key drivers are impeachment efforts in the Brazilian Senate, US sanctions pressure (Magnitsky), health, and any voluntary resignation signals; the base rate for STF justices leaving involuntarily is essentially zero, so the market price and recent news are the primary anchors.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.4s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? - Current price (probability): 17.00% - 7-day price change: -20.00% - 30-day price change: +8.00% - Total volume: $87,593 (USD notional) - Price range: 5.50% - 37.50% - Data points: 90 days
claude_news	OK	22.6s	13	## Key Findings: Alexandre de Moraes — Status as STF Justice (2025-2026) Impeachment requests in Senate: - Moraes faces increased political pressure and 66 impeachment requests in the Senate as of September 2026 ([ndmais.com.br](https://ndmais.com.br/justica/moraes-nao-pensa-em-renunciar-segu
article_search	OK	46.6s	31	Fetched 31 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=60d). 'Alexandre de Moraes impeachment Senate': 10 articles \| 'Alexandre de Moraes Magnitsky sanctions': 10 articles \| 'Moraes resignation STF': 10 articles \| 'Alcolumbre impeachment Moraes': 10 articles
gdelt_news	OK	136.6s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=30d). 'Alexandre de Moraes': 10 hits \| 'Moraes impeachment Senado': 10 hits \| 'Moraes STF renúncia': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
polymarket_related	OK	1.1s	16	Polymarket search over 4 keyword(s), kept 16 matches. keyword 'Moraes': 1 markets \| keyword 'Brazil': 5 markets \| keyword 'Bolsonaro': 5 markets \| keyword 'Lula': 5 markets
kalshi_related	OK	11.6s	1	1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Brazil': ok \| keyword 'Moraes': no matches \| keyword 'Lula': no matches
wikipedia	OK	0.4s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (1 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	28.0s	0	## Base Rate Findings: STF Justice Involuntary Removal/Resignation - Historical exposure: ~170 justices since STF founding (1890) across ~135 years, with 0 Senate impeachment removals ever and an estimated 3–7 forced/pressured resignations (concentrated in the Estado Novo 1937–45 and mi

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7093 chars

# Current state Moraes remains a sitting STF justice as of the latest research (mid-September 2026). No impeachment process has been formally opened (Senate President Alcolumbre has not ruled any of the 66–109 filed requests admissible), no resignation has been announced, and sources close to Moraes say he does not intend to resign. Polymarket prices the "Yes" (departure) outcome at 17%, down sharply from a recent peak near 37.5% but up from a 30-day-ago low. # Timeline of key events - 2025-07: US State Dept entry ban + OFAC Magnitsky sanctions imposed on Moraes over Bolsonaro prosecution (confirmed, per Wikipedia). - 2025-12-12: OFAC removes Moraes, his wife, and Lex Institute from Magnitsky list (confirmed, Agência Brasil). - 2026-08-04: Trump admin revokes visa of Brazilian ambassador nominee amid broader US-Brazil friction (confirmed, CNN). - 2026-08-16: FT reports US government discussed new sanctions on Moraes; no decision made (reported, Rio Times). - 2026-09-01: Senate President Alcolumbre states 109 impeachment requests filed against 10 STF ministers, calls it abnormal; no admissibility ruling issued (confirmed, Senado.leg.br). - 2026-09-02/04: Reports emerge of Moraes's alleged ties to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro (Banco Master scandal); STF justices publicly clash over handling of probe (confirmed, multiple wire outlets). - 2026-09-05: New impeachment request filed by Sen. Alessandro Vieira (20 co-signers) centered on Moraes/wife/Vorcaro (confirmed, Rio Times). - 2026-09-10: Resignation rumors "gain force" in Brasília ahead of STF plenary session (rumored, Gazeta Carajás). - 2026-09-11: STF cancels a session amid deepening crisis (confirmed, AP/ABC). - 2026-09-12: Eduardo Bolsonaro pushes for renewed US sanctions on Moraes during Washington visit (reported, Yahoo/GDELT). - 2026-09-15: STF President Fachin scheduled plenary to decide whether to open formal investigation into Moraes over Vorcaro ties (confirmed date; outcome not in research). - 2026-09-16: Sen. Damares Alves states impeachment cannot realistically conclude in 2026, expects push to resume Feb 2027 (reported, Brasil em Folhas). - Early Sept 2026 (ongoing): Sources close to Moraes deny resignation intent ("ele não é do tipo que larga") (reported, ND Mais). # Event Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be an STF justice (resignation, removal, or any cessation) between market creation and 2026-12-31? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct data returned in this research pass (tool not present in raw output; only an unrelated Kalshi "Brazil presidential election advance" market surfaced via kalshi_related, at 2% and irrelevant). **Best available anchor: Polymarket YES price = 17%**, down 20 pts over 7 days (from a ~37.5% high) but up 8 pts over 30 days; range 5.5%–37.5% over 90 days; volume $87.6k — moderate size, showing this is a live, actively-traded speculative event. # Resolution source Not run in this pass — no dedicated resolution_source fetch present. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket 90-day trend** — Currently 17%, having spiked to 37.5% (likely around the Vorcaro scandal/resignation rumors in early September) then retraced; 30-day change +8pts, 7-day change -20pts. [polymarket_direct] 2. **Active impeachment progress** — 66–109 impeachment requests filed against Moraes/STF ministers, but Senate President Alcolumbre has issued no admissibility ruling on any of them — the critical procedural gate remains closed. [claude_news, Senado.leg.br, Rio Times] 3. **US sanctions status** — Magnitsky sanctions were lifted Dec 2025; new sanctions were "discussed" per FT (Aug 2026) but not imposed; Eduardo Bolsonaro lobbying in DC (Sept 2026) for renewed sanctions, but no escalation confirmed. No credible reporting links sanctions to any resignation push. [claude_news, gdelt_news] 4. **Health/retirement/other office plans** — No health issues reported. Moraes (b. 1968) hits mandatory retirement age 75 only in 2043 — not a 2026 factor. Resignation rumors are speculative, driven by the Vorcaro/Banco Master scandal and a possible "honorable exit" framing, not health or career ambition. Sources close to him deny any resignation intent. [Wikipedia, claude_news, code_execution] 5. **Historical base rate** — Zero Senate impeachment removals in STF's ~135-year history; ~3-7 forced resignations, all during authoritarian-era breakdowns (1937-45, 1964-85), not comparable to today. Blended annual base rate for a sitting justice's forced departure ≈0.2-0.3%. [code_execution] 6. **Removal mechanism / Senate math** — Impeachment requires Senate president's admissibility ruling (blocked) plus a 2/3 Senate supermajority — no evidence current Senate composition is near that threshold; Damares Alves (opposition ally) herself concedes 2026 conclusion is implausible. [claude_news] 7. **Related markets signal** — Polymarket Bolsonaro-family election markets (Tarcisio 0.05%, Bolsonaro 0.05%, Michelle 0.05%) show opposition has essentially no electoral path in 2026, reducing near-term political leverage against Moraes; Lula at 44.5% suggests contested but not collapsing government position. No Kalshi market directly tracks Moraes. [polymarket_related, kalshi_related] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Senado.leg.br] 109 impeachment requests exist across 10 STF ministers as of Sept 1, 2026; none ruled admissible. 2. [Agência Brasil] Moraes's Magnitsky sanctions were lifted Dec 12, 2025. 3. [Wikipedia] Moraes born 1968; mandatory retirement not until 2043. 4. [code_execution] Zero STF justices ever removed by Senate impeachment in 135 years. 5. [ND Mais] Moraes's own camp denies resignation intent (Sept 2026). # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: only an unrelated Brazil election market found; no direct Moraes proxy. - Polymarket: 17% YES, volatile (5.5%-37.5% range), recent pullback from crisis-driven spike. - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - CNN Brasil analyst floats an "honorable exit" narrative for Moraes amid the Vorcaro scandal. - Damares Alves (opposition) downgrades 2026 impeachment odds, pushing timeline to 2027. - Rumors (unconfirmed, previously fact-checked false once) periodically claim resignation is imminent. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (out)**: Elevated but unconfirmed — scandal-driven crisis, high impeachment-request volume, US pressure narrative, recurring resignation rumors. - **No (stays)**: Strong — procedural block by Alcolumbre, denial from Moraes's camp, no 2/3 Senate majority visible, near-zero historical base rate, market itself only at 17%. # Gaps / unknowns - Outcome of Sept 15 STF plenary on Vorcaro investigation unknown. - No direct Kalshi price fetched this pass. - Unclear if Alcolumbre faces political pressure to act before year-end. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES 17% (best available anchor; Kalshi direct unavailable). - Historical base rate ~0.2-0.3%/year for forced STF departure — situational risk clearly elevated above this baseline but far from a coin-flip given procedural blockers.

4. Forecasters 5 draws · Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol

claude-fable-5-1

55% conf

Yes	12%
No	88%

Moraes remains seated with no impeachment request ruled admissible by Senate President Alcolumbre, and even opposition Sen. Damares Alves concedes a 2026 impeachment conclusion is implausible; the Senate 2/3 removal path is effectively closed for this window. The only realistic route is voluntary resignation under Vorcaro/Banco Master scandal pressure, which his camp explicitly denies and which would break with a 135-year zero-removal history outside authoritarian breakdowns. The best available anchor is Polymarket YES at 17%, which has retraced sharply from a crisis-driven 37.5% spike and likely still carries speculative premium; I shade below it given the procedural blockers and ~3.5 months remaining, while keeping meaningful tail weight for a scandal-forced 'honorable exit' or an adverse Sept 15 plenary outcome not captured in the brief.

claude-fable-5-1

52% conf

Yes	14%
No	86%

No Kalshi direct price was available, so the best anchor is Polymarket YES at 17%, which has retraced sharply from a ~37.5% spike around the Vorcaro/Banco Master scandal and resignation rumors. The formal removal path is effectively closed for 2026: Senate President Alcolumbre has ruled none of the 109 impeachment requests admissible, a 2/3 Senate supermajority is not visible, and even opposition Sen. Damares Alves concedes impeachment cannot conclude before 2027. That leaves voluntary resignation as the only realistic route in ~3.5 months, and Moraes's camp explicitly denies any intent to step down, with a 135-year base rate of zero Senate removals and forced exits only under authoritarian breakdowns. I shade slightly below the Polymarket price because the market spike appears rumor-driven and has been fact-checked false before, but keep meaningful weight on Yes given the live scandal, the unknown outcome of the Sept 15 STF plenary, and the 'honorable exit' narrative circulating in Brasília.

claude-fable-5-1

55% conf

Yes	12%
No	88%

The only removal mechanism (Senate impeachment) is procedurally blocked — Alcolumbre has ruled none of the 109 requests admissible, a 2/3 supermajority is nowhere in sight, and even opposition Sen. Damares Alves concedes nothing can conclude in 2026. The realistic 'Yes' path is a scandal-driven resignation over the Vorcaro/Banco Master affair, but Moraes's camp explicitly denies any intent to step down, prior resignation rumors have been fact-checked false, and the historical base rate for forced STF departures is ~0.2-0.3%/year with zero Senate removals ever. Polymarket's 17% (down from a 37.5% spike as rumors faded) is the best anchor; I shade slightly below it because prediction markets tend to overprice dramatic low-probability political exits with ~3.5 months left, while keeping meaningful weight for an 'honorable exit' if the STF probe escalates.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	13%
No	87%

The best market anchor is Polymarket at 17% YES, but its sharp retreat from 37.5% suggests the early-September scandal and resignation rumors were initially over-weighted. The procedural evidence favors No: no impeachment request has passed the Senate president’s gate, no two-thirds majority is visible, an opposition senator says removal cannot conclude in 2026, and no STF justice has ever been removed by Senate impeachment. Other departure routes also look unlikely because Moraes has no health or retirement trigger, his camp denies resignation intent, and renewed US sanctions remain only under discussion. I move modestly below the market to 13% while retaining a meaningful tail for an adverse Vorcaro investigation development or an abrupt scandal-driven resignation.

gpt-5.6-sol

70% conf

Yes	14%
No	86%

The best available market anchor is Polymarket at 17% YES, but its sharp retreat from 37.5% suggests the scandal-driven resignation rumors have weakened. The critical impeachment gate remains closed, no two-thirds Senate majority is evident, and even opposition senator Damares Alves says removal cannot realistically conclude in 2026. Resignation is also disfavored by denials from Moraes's camp, while health and mandatory retirement provide no alternative departure route. I retain a meaningful 14% YES probability because the Vorcaro investigation outcome is unknown and the political crisis could still trigger a voluntary exit before year-end.

6. Final plain mean of 5 draws

13% (61% confidence)

Yes: 13% No: 87%

Mean of 5 draws (0.12, 0.14, 0.12, 0.13, 0.14). Moraes remains seated with no impeachment request ruled admissible by Senate President Alcolumbre, and even opposition Sen. Damares Alves concedes a 2026 impeachment conclusion is implausible; the Senate 2/3 removal path is effectively closed for this window. The only realistic route is voluntary resignation under Vorcaro/Banco Master scandal pressure, which his camp explicitly denies and which would break with a 135-year zero-removal history outside authoritarian breakdowns. The best available anchor is Polymarket YES at 17%, which has retraced sharply from a crisis-driven 37.5% spike and likely still carries speculative premium; I shade below it given the procedural blockers and ~3.5 months remaining, while keeping meaningful tail weight for a scandal-forced 'honorable exit' or an adverse Sept 15 plenary outcome not captured in the brief.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 205.2s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.