Scan: Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-27	12%	13%	66%
2026-08-15	26%	30%	50%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related congress_bills congress_bills article_search claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the exact sunset date of Section 702 under RISAA (P.L. 118-49) and has any reauthorization bill (e.g., H.R. 22 or successor) been introduced or advanced in the 119th Congress as of now?
What is the Trump administration's (DOJ/ODNI/FBI) stated position on 702 reauthorization in 2026, and is the President expected to sign a clean reauthorization or demand reforms?
How large and firm is the House coalition (Freedom Caucus + progressive Democrats) demanding a warrant requirement, and could it block passage as it nearly did in April 2024?
Is Congress likely to pass a short-term extension (e.g., months) or a different-length reauthorization (e.g., 4-8 years or permanent) rather than exactly two years, and how would the market resolve in those cases?
How often has Congress let Section 702 lapse historically (e.g., Jan 2018, April 2024 near-misses), and did those lapses persist past year-end or get resolved within the same calendar year?
Is 702 reauthorization likely to be attached to a must-pass vehicle (NDAA, appropriations, CR) in 2026, increasing odds of enactment before Dec 31?
What do Kalshi or other Polymarket markets on FISA/702 or on 2026 legislation imply about probability of enactment?

Planner reasoning

Section 702 was last reauthorized by RISAA (P.L. 118-49) in April 2024 for two years, so it sunsets around April 19-20, 2026, creating strong forcing pressure for Congress to act in 2026. Key uncertainties are whether the Trump administration/House Freedom Caucus-privacy coalition demands (warrant requirement, backdoor searches) derail passage, whether Congress opts for a short-term extension or a different duration than the 'two years' the market description specifies, and whether a lapse simply gets tolerated via FISC certifications. Market price is the primary anchor, supplemented by congressional tracking and news on negotiations.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.6s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? - Current price (probability): 12.50% - 7-day price change: +1.50% - 30-day price change: -1.00% - Total volume: $105,755 (USD notional) - Price range: 9.50% - 44.50% - Data points: 90 days
polymarket_related	OK	1.9s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'FISA': 0 markets \| keyword 'Section 702': 0 markets \| keyword 'surveillance reauthorization': 0 markets \| keyword 'become law 2026': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	1.7s	0	0 related markets / summaries. keyword 'FISA': no matches \| keyword '702': no matches \| keyword 'surveillance': no matches
congress_bills	OK	1.3s	5	Found 5 bills matching 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization'.
congress_bills	OK	1.2s	10	Found 10 bills matching 'Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act Title VII'.
article_search	OK	0.7s	22	Fetched 22 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=120d). 'FISA Section 702 reauthorization 2026': 10 articles \| 'Section 702 sunset April 2026 Congress': 10 articles \| 'Trump administration FISA 702 warrant requirement': 10 articles \| 'House Judiciary Intelligence Committee 702 bill': 10 article
claude_news	OK	34.6s	14	Key findings on FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2026): - Sunset deadline & baseline authority: Section 702 was reauthorized in April 2024 via RISAA for only two years — the last time Congress reauthorized Section 702 was on April 20, 2024, via the Reforming Intelligence and Securing Amer
gdelt_news	OK	173.3s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'FISA 702 reauthorization': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429) \| 'Section 702 Congress vote': 10 hits \| 'RISAA sunset': 10 hits
wikipedia	OK	0.2s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (2 missing pages).

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7520 chars

# Current state Section 702 sunset per RISAA on 2026-04-20; a short-term extension (P.L. 119-87, enacted 2026-04-30) bridged the gap, but that expired and Section 702 has been statutorily lapsed since mid-June 2026 (operational surveillance continues under FISA Court recertification through March 2027). As of the latest research (late July 2026), no full reauthorization bill has passed both chambers and been signed — talks stalled over a warrant-requirement fight and turmoil around DNI nominee Bill Pulte, and only resumed traction after Jay Clayton's Senate confirmation as DNI (2026-07-29). # Timeline of key events - 2024-04-20: RISAA (P.L. 118-49) signed, reauthorizing §702 for exactly 2 years, sunset set for 2026-04-20 (confirmed). - 2026-03 (early): House GOP leadership announces plan for an 18-month "clean" extension; thin 218-214 majority (reported, Holland & Knight). - 2026-03-05/12: Reform bills introduced — HR 7816 (Biggs), HR 7901/S.4082 (Davidson/Wyden Government Surveillance Reform Act) (confirmed introductions, no floor action). - 2026-04-17: House adopts rule (H.Res.1175) to consider HR 8035, a 3-year+ extension option (confirmed). - 2026-04-29: House passes a 3-year extension, 235-191 (confirmed, multiple sources). - 2026-04-30: Short-term bridge extension enacted as P.L. 119-87 (confirmed via congress.gov); Senate fails to finalize a longer deal. - 2026-06 (~12-15): 45-day bridge extension lapses; §702 statutorily expires; FISA Court's March 2026 recertification (valid to March 2027) cited as providing operational cover (confirmed, CBS/NPR/Brennan Center). - 2026-06-08 to 06-21: Senate floor stalemate; Grassley urges passage; Graham/Warner clash over Pulte DNI nomination blocking momentum (reported, CBS transcripts). - 2026-06-11: Cotton introduces S.4760/S.4764 to extend Title VII authorities, referred to Senate Intel Committee (reported, not enacted). - 2026-07-21/29: Jay Clayton confirmed as DNI; described as potentially "reviving" the path to a §702 vote (confirmed multiple outlets, e.g., Independent, Fox, Daily Caller). - 2026-07-31: Reporting states Clayton's confirmation "sets up a possible vote," but no vote confirmed yet (reported). - No later data available confirming final passage/signature through the most recent search cutoff (~Aug-Sept 2026, non-FISA-related news dominates GDELT feed). # Event Will legislation reauthorizing FISA Section 702 (for two years, or otherwise qualifying per rules) pass both chambers and be signed into law by 2026-12-31? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct data returned (kalshi_related found zero matching markets). Best available same-ticker cross-market price: **Polymarket YES = 12.5%**, +1.5% (7d), -1.0% (30d), range 9.5%-44.5% over 90 days, volume ~$106K. Treat this as the working consensus anchor in absence of kalshi_direct data. # Sub-question answers 1. **Sunset date/bill status**: §702 sunset 2026-04-20 under RISAA; bridge extensions (P.L. 119-87, 2026-04-30) kept it alive until ~mid-June 2026, when it lapsed. Multiple bills (HR 7816, HR 7901/S.4082, S.4280, S.4764/4760) remain pending, none enacted as full reauthorization (congress_bills, claude_news). 2. **Administration position**: Trump administration/DOJ/ODNI pushed hard for reauthorization, warning of "dire" security consequences (Rubio, Cotton); no evidence Trump has demanded reforms beyond what's in RISAA — instead the process was disrupted by his DNI pick (Pulte) controversy, not policy demands (CBS/WaPo). 3. **House coalition on warrant requirement**: Persistent — Freedom Caucus/Biggs and progressive Democrats (via reform bills) continue pushing warrant requirements; thin House GOP majority (218-214) limits leadership's margin, similar to April 2024 near-miss dynamics (Holland & Knight, congress_bills). 4. **Extension length ambiguity**: House passed a 3-year extension (not 2 years) in April 2026; Senate has floated various durations (18-month, extensions "through Oct 2027"). Market text specifies "two years," creating resolution ambiguity if Congress ultimately passes a different-length bill — a key structural risk (sub-Q4, unresolved). 5. **Historical lapses**: Jan 2018 lapse resolved within days; 2023 sunset resolved via RISAA in April 2024 (~4 months late, same calendar year not applicable since sunset was Dec 2023). No precedent of a lapse extending past year-end once negotiations were active (claude_news, Lawfare). 6. **Must-pass vehicle attachment**: No confirmed evidence in research of §702 being attached to NDAA/appropriations/CR in 2026; process has proceeded via standalone bills/extensions only. 7. **Cross-market signals**: Polymarket at 12.5% YES, having fallen from a 44.5% high, reflecting the mid-2026 lapse and stalled negotiations (polymarket_direct). No Kalshi-specific or sportsbook data found. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [congress.gov/claude_news] RISAA sunset was 2026-04-20; two-year duration was Speaker Johnson's deliberate concession in 2024. 2. [congress_bills] S.4465 (Cotton) became P.L. 119-87 on 2026-04-30 — a short bridge extension, not a full reauthorization. 3. [CBS/NPR] §702 lapsed statutorily by mid-June 2026; FISA Court recertification (through March 2027) sustains operational collection despite lapse. 4. [5calls.org/claude_news] House passed a 3-year extension 235-191 on 2026-04-29; Senate did not concur. 5. [Independent/Fox/Daily Caller] Jay Clayton confirmed DNI 2026-07-29, seen as unlocking stalled Senate action. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: none found for FISA/702/surveillance keywords. - Polymarket: same-ticker price 12.5% YES, down sharply from 44.5% high, reflecting realized lapse and stalled talks. - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Sen. Graham (R-SC) claims "enough votes" exist per Sen. Warner if DNI dispute resolves (reported, CBS transcript, speculative). - Brennan Center argues lapse is not catastrophic ("will not go dark"), reducing urgency pressure on Congress (opinion). - Some GOP figures (Jordan) view 2024 RISAA reforms as sufficient, suggesting openness to a cleaner re-pass now that Clayton is confirmed (reported). # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Bipartisan statements of support (Graham, Warner, Grassley), DNI vacancy resolved (Clayton confirmed), strong administration/IC push, historical pattern of eventual resolution — supports possible passage before year-end. - **No**: §702 already lapsed for months with no enacted full reauthorization by measurement cutoff (Aug 2026); persistent warrant-requirement standoff; thin House majority; duration mismatch risk (3-year vs. required "two years" language); market pricing sharply favors No (87.5%). # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed passage after July 2026; unclear if talks resumed post-Clayton confirmation. - Resolution ambiguity if Congress passes non-2-year duration (3-year, 18-month, or permanent) — unclear if this satisfies market rules despite literal "two years" wording. - No kalshi_direct price obtained; relying on Polymarket cross-market data as proxy anchor. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price (proxy anchor): 12.5%, downtrend from 44.5% high. - Precedent: 2023-24 sunset was resolved via RISAA ~4 months after expiration threat, within legislative session but after initial lapse pressure; suggests eventual resolution is likely but timing uncertain — modest chance remains before Dec 31, 2026 given ~5 months of runway left as of research cutoff.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

45% conf

Yes	17%
No	83%

Section 702 has been statutorily lapsed since mid-June 2026 with no full reauthorization enacted as of the research cutoff, and the FISA Court's recertification running through March 2027 removes the operational deadline pressure that historically forces action (in 2023-24 Congress waited until the certification expiry in April 2024 to pass RISAA, suggesting a similar wait until early 2027 here). Against that, the DNI vacancy that blocked Senate movement was resolved with Clayton's confirmation, key senators (Graham, Warner, Grassley) claim the votes exist, the House already passed a 3-year bill 235-191, and a lame-duck NDAA/appropriations vehicle offers a plausible path before Dec 31. The Polymarket proxy anchor sits at 12.5% YES (no Kalshi-direct data); I nudge modestly above it for the lame-duck vehicle scenario and eventual-resolution history, but the 'two years' wording adds resolution risk even if a bill passes. Net ~17% Yes.

gpt-5.6-sol

59% conf

Yes	15%
No	85%

The 12.5% Polymarket YES price is the best available consensus anchor, and the prolonged statutory lapse plus absence of an enacted full reauthorization strongly support No. Administration backing, bipartisan Senate support, House passage of a three-year extension, and Jay Clayton's confirmation provide a plausible route to late-year passage, modestly raising my estimate above the anchor. However, operational authority lasting through March 2027 reduces urgency, while the warrant dispute, thin House majority, lack of a confirmed must-pass vehicle, and ambiguity over qualifying extension length remain substantial obstacles.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasters converge tightly around the Polymarket anchor (12.5%) with only modest upward adjustments (15-17%), but neither seriously grapples with the "two years" resolution ambiguity flagged in sub-Q4 — if the House's already-passed 3-year bill (235-191) becomes the vehicle, this could either resolve YES easily (if judged "qualifying") or introduce a contentious NO/ambiguous outcome; this binary risk should create more variance in their estimates, not just a footnote.

Neither forecast weighs the lame-duck/NDAA attachment scenario with real probability mass despite explicitly citing it (Forecast 1) as a "plausible path" — historically, stalled security legislation often rides on NDAA in December, and the brief's "no confirmed evidence of attachment" is not the same as "no future attachment," which both treat too dismissively given ~5 months of runway remain.

Both forecasters underweight the specific mechanism change since the Polymarket price was set: Clayton's confirmation (2026-07-29) is the single most concrete catalyst in the timeline, occurring after the Polymarket 12.5% price was likely already reflecting the DNI-stalled Senate, yet neither forecaster meaningfully updates for this being a genuinely new information event rather than already-priced.

The brief's historical precedent cuts both ways but is applied asymmetrically: the 2023-24 RISAA precedent shows resolution took ~4 months post-expiration and occurred within the same congressional term under similar recertification cover — Forecast 1 uses this to justify waiting until "early 2027," but this reasoning implies the analogous window (mid-June 2026 lapse + 4 months ≈ mid-October 2026) falls squarely within the Dec 31, 2026 cutoff, which should push probability higher, not lower.

Neither forecast explicitly addresses the thin House majority (218-214) as a live risk to renegotiation — if the Senate insists on a different duration/warrant provision than the House's 3-year bill, the House would need to re-vote under the same fragile margin, a nontrivial failure mode that could keep pushing timelines past Dec 31 that isn't separately modeled.

Both forecasts treat the Polymarket 12.5% as essentially unchallengeable ("best available consensus anchor"), but the brief notes it fell from a 44.5% high on thin ~$106K volume — a market this size and volatile is a weak anchor for a binary political event with a specific "Jay Clayton confirmation" catalyst that postdates much of that price history, warranting more independent reasoning rather than anchoring adjustments of only +2.5-4.5 points.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

19% (52% confidence)

Yes: 19% No: 81%

Section 702 has been statutorily lapsed since mid-June 2026 with no full reauthorization enacted through the research cutoff, and the FISA Court recertification running to March 2027 removes the operational deadline that historically forces action—in 2024 Congress passed RISAA only at the certification expiry, which here points to early 2027 rather than 2026. The critique correctly notes that Clayton's confirmation is a genuine catalyst, the House already passed a 3-year bill 235-191, and a lame-duck NDAA/omnibus vehicle is a real path that both forecasters underweighted; the event text's 'or otherwise qualifying' language also reduces the two-year-duration resolution risk. However, the thin 218-214 House margin, the Senate 60-vote warrant-requirement standoff, midterm-election disruption, and the absence of any confirmed vehicle attachment keep the base case at No. I move modestly above both forecasts and the thin, volatile Polymarket anchor (12.5%) to reflect the lame-duck scenario, landing at ~19% Yes.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 313.9s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.