Scan: Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-09-02	44%	42%	57%
2026-08-25	44%	48%	52%
2026-08-18	42%	46%	47%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related article_search claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current procedural status of State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson (preliminary hearing, arraignment, trial date), and is a trial realistically scheduled to conclude before July 31, 2027?
How long do Utah aggravated murder / capital cases typically take from charging to verdict, and what is the base rate of conviction on a homicide count in such cases?
Has the defense signaled a plea negotiation, and would any plea deal involve an admission of guilt to a homicide offense (Yes) versus a no-contest/Alford plea or dismissal (No)?
Is there any competency-to-stand-trial evaluation, insanity defense, or other legal issue that could delay or derail the case past the deadline?
How strong is the publicly reported evidence (DNA, confessions, texts, surveillance), and are there any suppression or evidentiary rulings that could weaken the state's case?
Has the death penalty being sought affected the timeline (e.g., extended discovery deadlines or continuances requested by defense)?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket market on whether Tyler Robinson is convicted of a criminal homicide offense by July 31, 2027. Key drivers are the trial timeline (Utah capital cases often take years, and the market has a hard deadline), the likelihood of a plea deal with admission of guilt (which counts as Yes), possible competency or mental-health defenses, and evidentiary strength. I will anchor on the Polymarket price, check Kalshi for cross-market signals, and gather news on the case's procedural status and scheduled dates.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.5s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? - Current price (probability): 23.00% - 7-day price change: -6.50% - 30-day price change: -17.50% - Total volume: $424,981 (USD notional) - Price range: 23.00% - 57.00% - Data points: 90 days
kalshi_related	OK	1.6s	1	1 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Tyler Robinson': no matches \| keyword 'Charlie Kirk': ok
polymarket_related	OK	0.1s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'Tyler Robinson': 0 markets \| keyword 'Charlie Kirk': 0 markets
article_search	OK	2.7s	16	Fetched 16 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=120d). 'Tyler Robinson trial date Charlie Kirk murder': 10 articles \| 'Tyler Robinson preliminary hearing Utah County': 10 articles \| 'Tyler Robinson plea deal death penalty': 10 articles \| 'Tyler Robinson competency evaluation defense': 10 artic
claude_news	OK	25.2s	13	Based on research into State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson: - Preliminary hearing held/concluded: A five-day preliminary hearing ran July 6–10, 2026, with closing arguments and a ruling on Sept. 1, 2026. The court also set an in-person pretrial conference for October 23 at 1 p.m. (https://w
gdelt_news	OK	103.9s	10	GDELT: 10 articles across 2 queries (lookback=60d). 'Tyler Robinson Utah court hearing': 10 hits \| 'Tyler Robinson trial Charlie Kirk': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
wikipedia	OK	0.2s	2	Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	37.8s	0	## Model Setup - Window: Charge (~Sept 15, 2025) to deadline (Jul 31, 2027) = 22.5 months. - Timeline model: Lognormal distribution for "time to resolution" (trial verdict or plea), median scenarios of 18/24/30/36 months, shape σ=0.5 (moderate uncertainty typical of capital-eligible mu

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7128 chars

# Current state Tyler Robinson was bound over for trial on all counts (including aggravated murder) on 2026-09-01, entered a not-guilty plea, and the case is now in pretrial stages with no trial date yet set. The Kalshi/Polymarket question resolves YES only if he is actually convicted of a homicide offense (trial verdict or guilty plea admitting homicide) by 2027-07-31 — being "bound over for trial" or "facing charges" is NOT conviction, and the case timeline remains the key uncertainty. # Timeline of key events - 2025-09-10: Charlie Kirk shot and killed at Utah Valley University; Robinson identified via surveillance/manhunt (confirmed, Wikipedia/multiple). - 2025-09-11 (approx): Robinson surrenders after parents allegedly convince him following a confession (confirmed, Wikipedia). - ~2025-09-2025: Charged with aggravated murder plus 9 other counts; prosecutors announce intent to seek death penalty (confirmed). - 2026-07-06 to 2026-07-10: Five-day preliminary hearing held in Provo, UT (confirmed, KUER/CBS/CNN). - 2026-09-01: Judge Tony Graf rules sufficient evidence exists; orders Robinson to stand trial on all counts; Robinson enters not-guilty plea (confirmed, multiple: CNN, WaPo, KUER, NBC). - 2026-10-23 (scheduled): In-person pretrial conference where a trial date may first be set; Kirk family representative requested date be set then (confirmed scheduled, per ABC4). - ~Early November 2026: Formal death-penalty notice due (60 days post-arraignment per Utah law) (reported/legal-inference, WaPo/FindLaw). - No trial date confirmed as of latest research (mid-Sept 2026 cutoff). # Event Will Tyler Robinson be convicted of any criminal homicide offense in State of Utah v. Tyler James Robinson by July 31, 2027 (per court judgment; plea w/ guilt admission counts; dismissal/no-judgment/charge-drop = No; mistrial stays open until deadline)? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi price returned (kalshi_direct not present in raw research; kalshi_related found no matching ticker). **Polymarket** — the closest cross-market proxy — shows current price 23% (down from a 90-day high of 57%, -6.5% in 7 days, -17.5% in 30 days), volume $425K. Treat 23% as the best available consensus anchor. # Sub-question answers 1. **Procedural status/trial timing** — Bound over for trial 2026-09-01; not-guilty plea entered; no trial date set yet; pretrial conference scheduled 2026-10-23 where a date may be set (KUER/CNN/ABC4). A verdict by 2027-07-31 (~10 months post-bindover) is possible but tight given capital-case norms. 2. **Base rate/typical duration** — No Utah-specific aggravated-murder base rate found; DPIC notes capital cases are far more resource-intensive (Utah 2017 study: +$1.5M cost vs. non-capital), implying extended pretrial timelines (claude_news synthesis). Code-execution model estimates median capital-case-to-verdict timelines of 18-36 months from charging. 3. **Plea negotiation signals** — No confirmed active plea talks; not-guilty plea entered 2026-09-01. Legal analysts speculate any plea deal would likely require removing death penalty from the table (Fox News, unconfirmed/speculative). 4. **Competency/insanity/delay risk** — No public reporting of competency evaluation ordered or insanity defense raised (claude_news). Defense has focused on evidentiary/aggravator challenges, not mental-state defenses. 5. **Evidence strength** — Prosecution presented surveillance video, testimony on post-shooting surveillance, and reportedly digital/testimonial evidence over 5-day prelim hearing; judge found probable cause on all counts including the political-targeting aggravator (KUER, NBC, CBS). Defense argues "two fatal flaws" in the state's case (Newsweek, unconfirmed specifics) and contests aggravator applicability, but did not defeat bindover. 6. **Death penalty impact on timeline** — Death penalty being pursued; formal notice due ~60 days post-arraignment (~Nov 2026). Capital-track cases historically add significant time (expert/mitigation review, extended discovery) per DPIC (claude_news synthesis) — this is the primary drag on hitting the July 2027 deadline. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [KUER/CNN/WaPo] Judge Graf ordered Robinson to stand trial on all counts 2026-09-01; not-guilty plea entered. 2. [ABC4] Pretrial conference set for 2026-10-23; trial date not yet fixed as of latest reporting. 3. [Wikipedia] Robinson faces 10 criminal counts total, including aggravated murder; death penalty sought. 4. [Polymarket] Market priced 23% as of latest data, down sharply from a 57% high over 90 days, signaling declining confidence in timely conviction. 5. [code_execution model] Base modeling suggests P(convicted by deadline) ≈ 30-40%, highly sensitive to case-pace assumption, with conditional P(convicted|resolved) stable near ~90%. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No matching ticker found for "Tyler Robinson"; only tangential "Kirk Cousins retirement" market surfaced (irrelevant). - Polymarket: 23% current, trending down (-17.5% 30-day), suggesting market has priced in delay risk since case bindover. - Sportsbook implied: None available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Legal analysts (Fox News) speculate a plea deal is possible but would likely require dropping death penalty; no active negotiations confirmed. - DPIC/legal commentary suggests capital cases in Utah routinely extend well past a year due to mitigation investigation and heightened due-process requirements. - Code-execution model treats 24-month median case pace as "most plausible base case," yielding ~41% conviction probability by deadline; weighted-scenario estimate ~36%. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (convicted by 7/31/27)**: Strong evidence at prelim hearing (surveillance, bindover on all counts) supports eventual conviction if case reaches resolution; conditional conviction probability ~90% once resolved. Opposing: no trial date set, capital-case complexity, death penalty litigation likely to push timeline past deadline; Polymarket trending down. - **No**: Favored by procedural pace — capital cases in Utah historically take 2-3+ years; no trial date yet 10 months post-bindover leaves little room before deadline; market pricing (23%) and downward trend support No as more likely outcome. # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed trial date as of most recent research (mid-to-late Sept 2026). - No Kalshi-direct YES price was returned in raw research — anchor relies on Polymarket proxy only. - Unknown whether October 23, 2026 conference set a trial date (post-dates research cutoff). - No competency/insanity issues reported, but this could still emerge in capital mitigation phase. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES proxy: 23% (down from 57% high), used as cross-market anchor absent direct Kalshi price. - Code-execution model base rate: ~30-40% (range 15-64% across scenarios). - Precedent: High-profile US capital murder cases (e.g., Parkland shooter, Boston Marathon bomber) typically took 2-5+ years from charge to verdict, supporting skepticism of resolution within ~22 months of charging.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

52% conf

Yes	22%
No	78%

Robinson was only bound over for trial on 2026-09-01 with a not-guilty plea and no trial date set, leaving roughly 11 months before the 2027-07-31 deadline in a capital case where the death-penalty notice isn't even due until ~November 2026; comparable high-profile capital cases (Parkland, Boston Marathon) took 2-5+ years from charge to verdict. The main path to YES is a plea deal (strong prosecution evidence and an alleged confession make eventual conviction ~90% likely once resolved), but no active negotiations are reported and the defense is contesting evidence rather than signaling a plea. The closest market anchor, Polymarket at 23% and trending down sharply from a 57% high, aligns with the procedural-delay view, and the brief's own scenario model (~30-40%) appears optimistic about case pace. I stay near the market consensus with a slight lean to No.

gpt-5.6-sol

68% conf

Yes	27%
No	73%

The 23% Polymarket YES price is the best available consensus anchor, as no direct Kalshi price was found. Strong surveillance and testimonial evidence, together with bindover on every count, makes conviction likely if the case resolves, while the absence of reported competency issues removes one potential delay. However, no trial date has been set, no active plea negotiations are confirmed, and capital-case discovery and mitigation work commonly take years, making conviction by July 31, 2027 unlikely. I place YES modestly above the market because the evidence could motivate a timely guilty plea or unusually fast trial, but timeline risk still clearly favors No.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasts anchor heavily on Polymarket's 23%, but the brief flags this as a noisy cross-market proxy (only $425K volume, no direct Kalshi ticker) — neither forecaster discounts for the possibility that Polymarket itself misprices a low-liquidity, high-profile political event, or notes that Kalshi's actual market (which is what's being asked about) could diverge meaningfully from Polymarket.

Neither forecast adequately engages with the code-execution model's ~30-40% base-rate estimate (with a range up to 64%), which is notably higher than both their final answers; they cite it only to dismiss it as "optimistic" without justifying why the market-anchored 23% should dominate a model-based estimate built specifically for this case's parameters.

Both treat the guilty-plea pathway as the primary route to YES but underweight the specific timeline mechanics: Utah requires the death-penalty notice ~60 days post-arraignment (~Nov 2026), and neither forecaster discusses how removal/confirmation of the death penalty at that point could sharply shift plea incentives before mid-2027 — this is a concrete, dated catalyst that could move probability more than generic "no active negotiations reported" language suggests.

Neither forecast explores the tail scenario where the Oct 23, 2026 pretrial conference sets an aggressively early trial date (some capital cases with overwhelming, uncontested evidence and confession-adjacent facts do move faster than the Parkland/Boston reference class) — the reference class of "high-profile capital shooter with alleged confession and no contested identity" may differ from cases with contested guilt like Boston Marathon.

Both forecasts converge tightly (0.22 vs 0.27) despite acknowledging a wide model range (15-64%), suggesting anchoring-induced overconfidence in the market price rather than independent synthesis of the sub-question evidence; the narrow spread doesn't reflect the genuine uncertainty flagged in the brief's own gaps section (no confirmed trial date, no Kalshi-direct price, post-cutoff conference outcome unknown).

Neither forecaster addresses the "mistrial stays open until deadline" resolution nuance from the question text — a mistrial followed by rapid retrial and conviction before 7/31/27 is a plausible path to YES that isn't discussed in either rationale.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

24% (60% confidence)

Yes: 24% No: 76%

Both forecasters drew the same inference from the sub-questions: conviction is very likely (~90%) if the case resolves, but the binding constraint is timing — bound over only in September 2026, no trial date set, death-penalty notice not due until ~November 2026, and capital cases in Utah and nationally typically take 2-5 years to verdict. The critique correctly notes the Polymarket anchor is a low-liquidity proxy and that a plea catalyst (death-penalty notice, alleged confession) could accelerate resolution, so I give modest weight to the model's 30-40% estimate rather than fully dismissing it. However, no active plea talks are reported, the defense is contesting evidence rather than signaling a deal, and the 30-day downward market trend post-bindover reflects real delay pricing. I land near the market and between the two forecasts, slightly favoring No given ~10 months remaining in a capital case with no trial date.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 197.7s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.