Scan: Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-29	74%	80%	58%
2026-08-22	73%	78%	63%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related article_search claude_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Polymarket and Kalshi implied probability of a Democratic win in the 2026 Wisconsin governor race, and how has it trended?
Who are the Democratic and Republican nominees (or leading primary candidates) for Wisconsin governor in 2026, and what do recent head-to-head polls show?
What is the national political environment (generic congressional ballot, presidential approval) heading into the 2026 midterms, and how does it historically translate to gubernatorial results in swing states?
What is the base rate for the president's opposing party winning open-seat governor races in swing states during midterm years?
How did Democrats perform in the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election and other recent Wisconsin statewide races, and what does that signal about turnout and partisan lean?
Are there significant third-party or independent candidates who could split the vote, and are there any major scandals or fundraising disparities affecting either nominee?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket election market on the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial race, an open seat since Tony Evers announced he would not seek a third term. The key drivers are the national environment (midterm under a Republican president typically favors Democrats), candidate quality on both sides post-primary (August 2026 primary), polling, and Wisconsin's recent record of narrow statewide margins. Market prices on Polymarket and Kalshi are the primary anchors, with polls and news filling in fundamentals.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.4s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? - Current price (probability): 83.50% - 7-day price change: +0.00% - 30-day price change: +7.00% - Total volume: $314,593 (USD notional) - Price range: 39.50% - 83.50% - Data points: 90 days
kalshi_related	OK	0.9s	1	1 related markets / summaries. series KXGOVWI: 0 markets (skipped 0 no-signal) \| series KXGOVPARTYWI: 0 markets (skipped 0 no-signal) \| keyword 'Wisconsin governor': ok
polymarket_related	OK	0.1s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'Wisconsin governor': 0 markets \| keyword 'Wisconsin gubernatorial': 0 markets \| keyword 'governor 2026': 0 markets
article_search	OK	46.6s	18	Fetched 18 unique articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'Wisconsin governor race 2026 poll': 10 articles \| 'Wisconsin gubernatorial nominee Democrat Republican 2026': 10 articles \| 'Wisconsin governor primary results': 10 articles
claude_news	OK	20.6s	19	## Key Findings: 2026 Wisconsin Governor Race - Nominees set: Democratic Milwaukee County executive David Crowley and Republican U.S. representative Tom Tiffany are the nominees for their respective parties, after incumbent Democratic governor Tony Evers declined to seek re-election to a third
wikipedia	OK	0.9s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	64.4s	0	## Key Findings Base rate — open-seat swing-state governor races in midterm years (since 1994): - Across WI, MI, PA, AZ, GA, NV (NC excluded — it elects governors only in presidential years, never midterms), there were 18 open-seat gubernatorial races in midterm cycles since 1994. - **13 of

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7904 chars

# Current state Wisconsin held its primaries on 2026-08-11 (confirmed). Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated progressive Francesca Hong for the Democratic nomination (39.8% in a chaotic field); Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany won the GOP nomination unopposed. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) is not seeking a third term. The general election (Crowley vs. Tiffany) is set for 2026-11-03; resolution requires AP/Fox/NBC to all call the race for the same candidate, or official certification. # Timeline of key events - 2025-04-01 (confirmed): Wisconsin Supreme Court election — liberal Susan Crawford beat conservative Brad Schimel by ~10 pts, in a race with turnout resembling a midterm; signals Democratic-aligned enthusiasm/turnout edge in WI. - 2026 (date TBD, prior to primary) (confirmed): Evers announces he will not seek a third term, opening the seat for the first time since 2010. - Pre-2026-08-11 (confirmed): Democratic primary field narrows chaotically — Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez exits amid campaign-finance scandal; Mandela Barnes drops out; Crowley briefly withdraws then re-enters; Hong (democratic socialist) leads pre-primary polls by double digits. - 2026-08-11 (confirmed): Primary held. Tiffany wins GOP nomination easily; Crowley wins Democratic nomination (39.8%), upsetting frontrunner Hong. CNN/AP call the Democratic race for Crowley. - 2026-08-12 (reported): Marquette Law School poll and Washington Post coverage frame Crowley as establishment-backed pick; Wisconsin Dems hope for full "trifecta" (governor + both legislative chambers). - 2026-08-12/13 (reported): Badger Battleground Poll shows Crowley leading Tiffany 48%-44% statewide, 42%-30% among independents. - Mid-to-late Aug 2026 (reported): Marquette poll shows Crowley leading Tiffany 51%-48% among likely voters (narrower among all registered voters — "modest advantage or dead tie" per pollster Charles Franklin). - 2026-09-12 (confirmed): Tiffany involved in an emergency small-plane landing on Lake Wausau; minor injuries, no clear polling impact reported yet. - As of brief compilation (reported): Pollsmax aggregate has Crowley +0.4 (46.9%-46.5%), forecast model gives Crowley 54.3% win probability, rated "Tilt Democratic." # Event Will the Democratic nominee (David Crowley) win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (Democrat wins) - No (Republican wins) # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi price returned for this ticker in raw data. Related Kalshi markets (West Virginia/Missouri 2028 governor, both R-favored 87-91%) provide no direct signal. **Primary cross-market anchor is Polymarket: 83.5% YES (Democrat), flat over 7 days, +7pts over 30 days, range 39.5%-83.5% over 90 days, $314,593 volume** — this is the best available consensus proxy. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket/Kalshi implied probability** — Polymarket: 83.5% YES, up from a 90-day low of 39.5%, +7pts in last 30 days, flat last 7 days [polymarket_direct]. No Kalshi-specific price found for this ticker. 2. **Nominees & polls** — Democrat David Crowley (Milwaukee County Executive) vs. Republican Tom Tiffany (US Rep) [Wikipedia, claude_news]. Polls show Crowley ahead by 0.4-5 points depending on poll: Marquette 51-48 (likely voters, narrower among all registered), Badger Battleground 48-44, Pollsmax aggregate 46.9-46.5 [claude_news]. 3. **National environment** — Trump approval is historically low; midterms typically favor the out-party; Dems have national generic-ballot advantage, though Democratic Party brand itself is unpopular (74% net favorability among WI Dems vs 85% for WI Republicans among their own base) [claude_news]. 4. **Base rate for opposing party in open-seat swing-state midterm races** — 13 of 18 (72.2%) since 1994 went to the party not holding the White House; WI itself is 1-for-1 in this pattern [code_execution]. Applies directly to 2026 WI (open seat, GOP holds White House). 5. **2025 WI Supreme Court & other statewide races** — Liberal Crawford won April 2025 WI Supreme Court race by ~10pts with midterm-level turnout skewing Democratic [Wikipedia]. Broader 2018-2024 partisan-race average is D+2.2 (stdev 3.8), while supreme court races average D+10.5 (likely overstating true partisan lean) [code_execution]. 6. **Third-party/scandals** — No major third-party candidates identified in research. Democratic primary saw scandal-driven exits (Rodriguez campaign-finance issue, Barnes dropout) but general-election matchup is a clean two-way race. Tiffany survived a minor plane-crash incident (2026-09-12) with no reported political fallout yet [Wikipedia, claude_news]. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia] Crowley (D) and Tiffany (R) are the confirmed nominees; Evers not seeking re-election. 2. [Wikipedia] Trump won WI by <1pt in 2024; WI has split Senate delegation. 3. [code_execution] Historical base rate: 72% of open-seat swing-state governor races in midterms go to the president's opposing party since 1994. 4. [code_execution] WI partisan-race lean 2018-2024: D+2.2 avg (stdev 3.8), true toss-up with slight D tilt. 5. [Wikipedia] April 2025 WI Supreme Court: liberal candidate won by ~10pts with midterm-like turnout. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No direct WI governor Kalshi price found; unrelated GOP-favored markets in WV/MO 2028 offer no transferable signal. - Polymarket: 83.5% YES for Democrat, up sharply from 39.5% low (likely reflecting primary chaos resolving favorably + Crowley's polling leads), flat last week. - Sportsbook implied: None found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Pollsmax model: Crowley 54.3% win probability, "Tilt Democratic," projected 50.5%-49.6% [claude_news] — notably far more conservative than Polymarket's 83.5%. - Marquette pollster Charles Franklin characterizes race as "modest Crowley advantage… or a dead tie" [claude_news]. - CNN/NPR: Democrats see Tiffany as vulnerable given 100% Trump voting record and Trump's sagging approval [claude_news]. - Washington Post: Democratic establishment relieved Hong (democratic socialist) didn't win nomination, viewing Crowley as more electable [article_search]. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (Democrat/Crowley)**: Favorable midterm environment, 72% historical base rate for out-party in open-seat swing states, consistent (if narrow) polling leads (0.4-5pts across polls), 2025 WI Supreme Court blowout for liberals, Tiffany's full Trump alignment amid low approval. Polymarket at 83.5% appears to price this heavily. - **No (Republican/Tiffany)**: Polling margins are within/near error margins (as low as 0.4-0.9pts in aggregate), WI's history of razor-thin races, GOP has higher in-party favorability than Democrats statewide, Georgia's base-rate exception urges caution on the 72% figure, Crowley emerged from a chaotic/scandal-touched primary that may leave lingering intra-party friction. # Gaps / unknowns - No direct Kalshi YES price retrieved for this specific ticker — Polymarket used as best proxy, but the ~30-point gap between Polymarket (83.5%) and polling-model forecasts (Pollsmax ~54%) is a major unresolved divergence. - No fundraising/cash-on-hand comparison data between Crowley and Tiffany. - No post-Labor Day or October polling included; race dynamics could shift substantially in final two months. - Impact (if any) of Tiffany's September plane incident on his standing unknown. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES (proxy anchor): 83.5%, +7pts/30d, flat/7d. - Polling-model (Pollsmax) probability: ~54.3% Crowley win — much closer to toss-up than Polymarket price. - Historical base rate: ~72% for out-party (Democrat) in open-seat swing-state midterm races since 1994. - 2022 WI precedent: Evers (D, incumbent) won by ~3.4pts despite polls showing Republican Michels ahead late in the race — cautionary tale that WI polls can underestimate Democratic performance.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

46% conf

Yes	74%
No	26%

No direct Kalshi price exists; the Polymarket proxy sits at 83.5% for the Democrat, but the Pollsmax polling model gives Crowley only ~54% with an aggregate lead of just 0.4 pts, a ~30-point divergence. Structural factors favor Crowley: the 72% historical base rate for the out-party in open-seat swing-state midterm governor races, a poor national environment for Republicans under low Trump approval, the April 2025 Supreme Court blowout showing a Democratic midterm-turnout edge, and consistent (if narrow) polling leads across Marquette and Badger Battleground. Against this, Wisconsin's razor-thin statewide history, Tiffany's unopposed nomination versus Crowley's chaotic primary, and margins within polling error keep meaningful GOP upside. I split the difference between the market and the polling model, leaning toward the market and base rate at roughly 74% for a Democratic win.

gpt-5.6-sol

68% conf

Yes	72%
No	28%

The 83.5% Polymarket YES proxy is the consensus anchor, but it appears overconfident relative to Pollsmax's 54.3% forecast and an aggregate margin of only Crowley +0.4. Crowley's consistent polling leads, including 48%-44% and 51%-48% results, point toward Yes, while their narrowness leaves substantial upset risk in a closely divided state. The 72% historical rate for the presidential out-party in comparable open-seat midterm races, Trump's low approval, and Democrats' 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court victory reinforce a Democratic lean. With no major third-party candidate or current scandal disrupting Crowley, I place the race near that historical base rate rather than the much higher market proxy.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasters converge suspiciously close (0.74 vs 0.72) despite claiming to weight the Polymarket anchor (83.5%) and Pollsmax (54.3%) differently — neither shows clear math for how they arrived at their blend, making the reasoning feel post-hoc rather than derived from stated weights.

Neither forecast adequately grapples with the "Polymarket flat over 7 days" signal — a stale, thin-volume ($314K) market that jumped from 39.5% to 83.5% over 30 days may reflect primary-resolution relief rather than genuine electoral information, yet both treat it as a serious anchor worth "splitting the difference" against.

Both under-weight the explicit 2022 cautionary precedent in the brief: "WI polls can underestimate Democratic performance" (Evers won by 3.4pts despite trailing late polls) — this argues for shading toward Yes beyond the raw polling average, but neither forecaster explicitly incorporates this asymmetric polling-error consideration.

Neither addresses the intra-party friction risk flagged in the brief — Crowley won with only 39.8% in a fractured primary, and progressive Hong supporters (democratic socialist base) may not fully consolidate behind an "establishment" pick, which is a specific downside scenario for Yes that's mentioned in evidence but not modeled.

Neither considers Georgia's explicit "base-rate exception" mentioned in the brief when applying the 72% out-party historical rate; both cite the base rate as reinforcing but skip why WI might behave more like an exception given the tightening 2022 environment and the state's history of razor-thin margins.

Both forecasts land far closer to Pollsmax's model (54.3%) than to Polymarket (83.5%) while calling Polymarket the "primary cross-market anchor" — this is an inconsistency in how much weight is actually being placed on the stated anchor versus the polling-model fundamentals, and neither explains why a 30-point anchor discount is justified rather than, say, a 15-point or 45-point one.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

74% (57% confidence)

Yes: 74% No: 26%

Both forecasters landed near 0.72-0.74, blending the Polymarket proxy (83.5%, thin volume, no direct Kalshi price) with the poll-only Pollsmax model (~54%). The critique cuts both ways: the market is thin and may reflect primary-resolution relief (argues for a discount), but the 2022 precedent of WI polls underestimating Democrats and a strong out-party midterm environment (72% base rate, low Trump approval, 2025 Supreme Court blowout) argue the poll-only model understates Crowley. Consistent if narrow Crowley leads across Marquette, Badger Battleground, and the aggregate, with no third party and no active Crowley scandal, support a clear Democratic lean, while Wisconsin's razor-thin history and possible progressive consolidation issues keep meaningful GOP upside. I settle at 74% Yes, roughly midway between the market and a fundamentals-adjusted polling view.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 162.9s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.