Scan: Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-30	9%	15%	67%
2026-08-23	12%	15%	65%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news article_search gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Has any bolide with CNEOS 'Impact Energy' >= 10 kt already been recorded between January 1, 2026 and today?
How many events with impact energy >= 10 kt appear in the CNEOS fireball database since 1988, and what is the implied annual rate (Poisson probability of at least one in a calendar year)?
How much of 2026 remains at the current date, and does the remaining-time-adjusted Poisson probability differ materially from the full-year base rate?
Are there reporting lags or classification issues (e.g., events initially unlisted, energy revisions, artificial-object exclusions) that affect whether a borderline 10kt event would count by the Feb 28, 2027 deadline?
What is the current Polymarket YES price and volume, and do any related Polymarket/Kalshi markets (asteroid, fireball, meteor) imply a different probability?
Have there been any recent large fireball reports in 2026 (news, IAWN, ESA) that CNEOS has not yet posted or has estimated near the 10kt threshold?

Planner reasoning

This is essentially a base-rate question: the CNEOS fireball database records roughly 8-10 events >=10kt over ~37 years, implying a Poisson annual probability around 20-25%, adjusted for any event already recorded in 2026 and for how much of the year remains. The key empirical work is (1) checking whether a qualifying bolide has already occurred in 2026, (2) pinning down the historical frequency of >=10kt entries in the CNEOS table, and (3) anchoring on the Polymarket price and any cross-venue signals.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.7s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? - Current price (probability): 9.00% - 7-day price change: -2.50% - 30-day price change: -2.50% - Total volume: $205,301 (USD notional) - Price range: 8.50% - 15.50% - Data points: 90 days
polymarket_related	OK	1.3s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'meteor': 0 markets \| keyword 'asteroid': 0 markets \| keyword 'fireball': 0 markets \| keyword 'bolide': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	1.2s	0	0 related markets / summaries. keyword 'meteor': no matches \| keyword 'asteroid': no matches \| keyword 'fireball': no matches
claude_news	OK	32.9s	10	Based on available search results (CNEOS, ESA/IAWN reporting, and credible news/prediction-market summaries), here are the key findings for the "10kt+ meteor strike in 2026" question: - No 10kt+ bolide confirmed in 2026 through early September. A related Polymarket market for a lower 5kt thresh
article_search	OK	46.6s	12	Fetched 12 unique articles across 3 queries (lookback=120d). 'large fireball bolide explosion 2026 kilotons NASA CNEOS': 10 articles \| 'meteor airburst 2026 impact energy': 10 articles \| 'bright fireball detected satellite 2026': 10 articles
gdelt_news	OK	118.5s	10	GDELT: 10 articles across 2 queries (lookback=90d). 'bolide fireball explosion kilotons': 10 hits \| 'meteor airburst NASA': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
wikipedia	OK	0.1s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (1 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	16.6s	0	Base rate calculation for ≥10kt bolide events (Poisson model, 1988–2025, ~38 years) - Annual rate (λ) by event count N: N=7→0.184/yr, N=8→0.211/yr, N=9→0.237/yr, N=10→0.263/yr, N=11→0.289/yr - Full-year probability P(≥1 event), f=1.0: ranges from 16.8% (N=7) to 25.1% (N=11), av

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6109 chars

# Current state As of the research cutoff (~mid-September 2026), no bolide event in 2026 has been confirmed by CNEOS, ESA, or IAWN with impact energy ≥10 kt TNT-equivalent; the largest 2026 event identified is the Boston fireball (~1.1 kt, 2026-05-30). The market resolves YES only if a natural (non-artificial) bolide reaches ≥10kt sometime in the Jan 1–Dec 31, 2026 window, as tracked by CNEOS. # Timeline of key events - 2026-03-08: Koblenz, Germany daytime bolide, small (few-meter object), no kt-scale energy reported (confirmed, Wikipedia/en.wikipedia.org). - 2026-03-17: Ohio/Lake Erie fireball (~7-ton object), sonic booms, well below kiloton energy (confirmed, opticflux.com). - 2026-04-01: "Polar-IM" possible interstellar meteor, ~0.086 kt, high altitude (confirmed, avi-loeb.medium.com). - 2026-05-30: Boston-area fireball, ~1.1 kt — largest confirmed 2026 event to date (confirmed, avi-loeb.medium.com / CBS Boston). - 2026 Q1: AMS logs 2,046 fireball events — highest Q1 count in 15-year AMS series, but predominantly small/non-kiloton events (confirmed, ufouap.com). - Through early September 2026: No ≥5kt (and thus no ≥10kt) event confirmed; related Polymarket 5kt market implies 76% "No" (reported, polymarket.com/event/5kt-meteor-strike-in-2026). - 2026-08-16 to 09-12: Several fireball sightings (Washington, Manitoba, Mediterranean) reported in news/GDELT with no energy data suggesting kiloton scale (reported, local news/sott.net). # Event Will a natural bolide (fireball/meteor airburst) with total impact energy ≥10 kilotons TNT-equivalent be recorded by CNEOS (or ESA/IAWN/DoD consensus) as occurring anywhere on Earth during calendar year 2026? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes - No # Kalshi market anchor Kalshi-direct pricing not separately returned; Polymarket (same event, mirrored ticker) shows current YES price **9.00%**, down from a 30-day high of 15.5%, with 7d/30d trend both -2.5%. Total volume $205,301 over 90 days — moderate liquidity, declining probability trend consistent with an uneventful year so far. # Sub-question answers 1. **Has any ≥10kt bolide been recorded in 2026 to date?** No. Largest confirmed 2026 event is Boston (~1.1kt, 2026-05-30); no CNEOS/ESA/IAWN-confirmed event has approached 10kt (claude_news, avi-loeb.medium.com). 2. **Historical CNEOS ≥10kt event count since 1988 and implied annual rate?** Estimated N=7–11 qualifying events over ~38 years, giving λ≈0.18–0.29/yr; central estimate λ≈0.237/yr → full-year Poisson P(≥1)≈21% (code_execution calc). 3. **Remaining-2026-adjusted probability?** With ~3.5 months left (f≈0.25–0.3), Poisson-adjusted probability falls to roughly **6–8%** (interpolating code_execution table: f=0.25→5.7%, f=0.5→11.2%), closely matching the Polymarket 9% price. 4. **Reporting lags/classification issues?** Resolution rules allow using ESA/IAWN/DoD consensus if CNEOS is delayed past Feb 28, 2027, mitigating lag risk; energy revisions near threshold (e.g., 2020 China bolide revised to 9.5kt, just under 10kt) show real risk of borderline reclassification either direction (claude_news). 5. **Polymarket/Kalshi cross-market signals?** No related Kalshi markets found (0 matches for meteor/asteroid/fireball). Related Polymarket 5kt market implies 76% "No" (24% "Yes") for the lower threshold; 1-megaton market implies 98.5% "No" — consistent monotonic threshold scaling. 6. **Recent unlisted/near-threshold 2026 events?** None found near 10kt; all identified 2026 events (Boston 1.1kt, Koblenz, Ohio, Polar-IM 0.086kt) are well below threshold; elevated 2026 fireball sighting frequency (record AMS Q1 count) has not translated into higher-energy events. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Polymarket] Current YES price 9.0%, volume $205k, downward trend last 30 days. 2. [avi-loeb.medium.com] Largest 2026 fireball to date: Boston, ~1.1kt (2026-05-30). 3. [code_execution] Poisson base rate for full year ≈21% (λ≈0.237/yr, N=9 central). 4. [claude_news] 2020 China bolide (9.5kt) and 2016 South Atlantic (~13kt) are recent near/above-threshold precedents; last confirmed ≥10kt event was 2016. 5. [ufouap.com] AMS recorded highest Q1 fireball count (2,046) in 15-year record in 2026, but not correlated with high-energy events. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: none found (0 matches). - Polymarket: main market 9% YES; 5kt-threshold sibling market ~24% YES; 1-megaton sibling market ~1.5% YES — coherent threshold-scaled curve. - Sportsbook implied: N/A (not applicable to this event type). # Analyst opinions and speculation - Avi Loeb (astronomer) blog coverage treats 2026 fireballs (Polar-IM, Boston) as scientifically interesting but explicitly sub-kiloton to low-kiloton, not threat-level. - News commentary (opticflux, ufouap) frames 2026 as a "fireball surge" year in sighting frequency but not energy magnitude — media attention may inflate public perception of risk beyond actual base rate. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Historical base rate (~21%/yr) and elevated fireball sighting frequency in 2026 provide some tail risk; borderline energy revisions (as with 2020 China bolide) could push a currently sub-threshold event over 10kt post-hoc. - **No**: No qualifying event in ~8.5 months elapsed; remaining-year Poisson-adjusted probability (~6-8%) closely matches market price of 9%; all 2026-to-date events are far below threshold (max ~1.1kt, ~9x below threshold). # Gaps / unknowns - Exact current date/research cutoff not explicitly stated (assumed ~mid-September 2026 based on article recency), affecting precise remaining-time fraction. - Exact historical N (7–11) for ≥10kt CNEOS events is an estimate, not a verified count from raw CNEOS data. - No visibility into non-public DoD sensor detections that might not yet be public. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket current YES price: 9% (primary anchor). - Poisson base-rate model (remaining ~3-4 months of 2026): ~6-11% depending on N assumption — well aligned with market price. - Sibling threshold markets: 5kt≈24% YES, 1-megaton≈1.5% YES, forming a consistent monotonic curve around the 10kt≈9% estimate.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

72% conf

Yes	8%
No	92%

No ≥10kt bolide has been recorded in 2026 through ~mid-September; the largest event (Boston, ~1.1kt) is roughly 9x below threshold. The historical CNEOS base rate (~0.24 events/yr) implies only ~6–8% probability of a qualifying event in the remaining ~3.5 months, closely matching the Polymarket anchor of 9% (no Kalshi-direct price available). Sibling threshold markets (5kt≈24%, 1Mt≈1.5%) form a coherent curve consistent with ~8–9% at 10kt. Small residual upside from borderline energy revisions and reporting lag keeps YES from being pushed to the floor.

gpt-5.6-sol

78% conf

Yes	8%
No	92%

No qualifying event has been recorded through roughly mid-September, and the largest confirmed 2026 bolide was only about 1.1 kt, far below the 10 kt threshold. The historical rate of approximately 0.18–0.29 qualifying events per year implies only about a 6–8% chance over the remaining 3.5 months. Reporting and borderline reclassification create modest additional uncertainty, but no known 2026 event is currently near the threshold. I therefore stay close to the 9% Polymarket anchor while moving slightly lower to 8% YES.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasters converge almost exactly on the Polymarket anchor (8% vs 9%) without independently stress-testing the Poisson model's key assumption—the historical N=7–11 count since 1988 is explicitly flagged as "an estimate, not a verified count from raw CNEOS data," yet neither forecast widens uncertainty bands to reflect this data-quality gap.

Neither forecast explicitly grapples with the fact that "last confirmed ≥10kt event was 2016," meaning the tail has already run 10 years without a hit—this could support either a "we're overdue" argument or a "rate may be lower than λ≈0.237 suggests" argument, but the brief's own precedents (2016 South Atlantic ~13kt, 2020 China 9.5kt) show two near-threshold events in a 4-year span, which is inconsistent with the smoothed annual rate and deserves explicit discussion.

Both forecasts treat "reporting lag/reclassification risk" as a minor upward nudge, but the brief notes the 2020 China bolide was revised to 9.5kt (just under threshold)—this cuts both ways (could also revise DOWN a currently-unlisted event that's already ≥10kt but unreported due to classified DoD sensors), a scenario neither forecaster mentions despite the brief's explicit "Gaps/unknowns: No visibility into non-public DoD sensor detections."

The record-high AMS Q1 fireball count (2,046, highest in 15-year series) is dismissed by both forecasters as "not correlated with energy," but neither considers whether this could indicate a genuine uptick in bolide flux (e.g., a meteor stream or debris field) that might elevate tail risk for a large event later in the year, rather than being pure noise.

Neither forecaster addresses the specific asymmetry that a single missed/delayed classification near year-end (impacting Feb 28, 2027 CNEOS reporting deadline) could shift resolution outcomes in ways not captured by the smooth Poisson model, especially given only 3.5 months remain and detection-to-confirmation lag for kiloton-scale airbursts can itself take weeks.

Both forecasts round to identical 8-9% figures with high stated confidence (0.72, 0.78), but given the small-N historical base (7-11 events over 38 years) and explicit acknowledgment of estimation uncertainty, this confidence level may be overstated relative to the genuine model uncertainty in λ.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

8% (75% confidence)

Yes: 8% No: 92%

Both forecasters and the sub-question decomposition agree: no ≥10kt event through mid-September 2026, largest event ~1.1kt, and a Poisson remaining-year estimate of ~6–8% that aligns with the 9% Polymarket anchor and coherent sibling threshold markets (5kt≈24%, 1Mt≈1.5%). The critique raises valid points about small-N uncertainty in λ and unlisted DoD detections, but these mostly widen uncertainty symmetrically rather than shift the central estimate; a genuine ≥10kt airburst would almost certainly have surfaced in fireball/news coverage even if CNEOS listing lagged. The record AMS fireball count reflects sighting/reporting growth, not large-body flux, so it adds negligible tail risk. I land between the forecasters' 8% and the market's 9%, slightly favoring the market given the acknowledged λ uncertainty and possible upward revisions.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 205.1s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.