Scan: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-09-07	16%	16%	64%
2026-08-30	13%	14%	67%
2026-08-23	18%	24%	64%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct congress_bills congress_bills article_search claude_news kalshi_related polymarket_related gdelt_news wikipedia

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current status of H.R.3633 on Congress.gov — has the Senate taken any committee or floor action, and what is the latest official action date?
Have the Senate Banking Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee held or scheduled markups on their crypto market-structure bills (e.g., Responsible Financial Innovation Act), and have they been merged into a single Senate vehicle?
How many Senate Democrats have publicly committed to supporting a market-structure bill, and are the sticking points (stablecoin yield, DeFi, ethics/Trump family crypto provisions) close to resolution?
Has Senate Majority Leader Thune or the White House stated a target timeline for floor consideration, and is floor time realistic given the 2026 midterm calendar?
Would a Senate-passed bill be enacted under the H.R.3633 bill number (via amendment to the House bill) versus a separate Senate bill number, which could affect resolution?
What is the historical base rate for major financial regulatory bills that pass the House in year one being enacted in the second year of a Congress, especially a midterm year?
What does the Polymarket price history show, and do related Kalshi/Polymarket markets on crypto legislation or Senate passage agree or disagree?

Planner reasoning

The Clarity Act (H.R.3633) passed the House in July 2025 and its fate hinges on Senate action, where the Banking and Agriculture committees must reconcile their own market-structure drafts, secure 60 votes, and then reconcile with the House text before Trump signs. Key uncertainties are Senate committee markup timing, Democratic support amid disputes over stablecoin yield and ethics provisions, and whether a midterm-year calendar allows floor time. Market price on Polymarket is the primary anchor; Kalshi may have a correlated market on crypto market-structure legislation.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? - Current price (probability): 27.50% - 7-day price change: +13.00% - 30-day price change: +9.00% - Total volume: $16,456,457 (USD notional) - Price range: 13.50% - 74.00% - Data points: 160 days
congress_bills	OK	6.0s	10	Found 10 bills matching 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act'.
congress_bills	OK	6.0s	9	Found 9 bills matching 'Responsible Financial Innovation Act digital asset market structure'.
article_search	OK	5.4s	19	Fetched 19 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=45d). 'Clarity Act Senate market structure bill markup': 10 articles \| 'Senate Banking Committee crypto market structure bill Democrats': 10 articles \| 'Thune crypto bill floor vote timeline': 10 articles \| 'stablecoin yield dispute market struct
claude_news	OK	28.8s	15	Current status of H.R.3633 (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) — as of mid-September 2026: - House passage: The House of Representatives passed H.R. 3633 on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 vote, with all 216 voting Republicans supported by 78 Democrats. (https://www.bitget.com/academy/clarity-
kalshi_related	OK	4.8s	3	3 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Clarity Act': ok \| keyword 'crypto market structure': ok \| keyword 'crypto bill': ok
polymarket_related	OK	0.1s	1	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 1 matches. keyword 'Clarity Act': 1 markets \| keyword 'market structure': 0 markets \| keyword 'crypto bill Senate': 0 markets
gdelt_news	OK	93.8s	10	GDELT: 10 articles across 2 queries (lookback=30d). 'Clarity Act Senate': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429) \| 'crypto market structure bill Senate vote': 10 hits
wikipedia	OK	0.1s	2	Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7487 chars

# Current state H.R.3633 passed the House on 2025-07-17 (294-134) and has been pending in the Senate since. As of the research cutoff (~mid-September 2026), the Senate has a merged Banking/Agriculture Committee text with a controversial ethics title, and a cloture vote on the motion to proceed was scheduled for 2026-09-15 — a make-or-break procedural hurdle requiring 60 votes (7+ Democrats) that has not yet been confirmed as passed or failed in the research provided. Congress.gov's latest tracked action (2026-08-08) is the filing of the cloture motion, not a completed vote. # Timeline of key events - 2025-07-17: House passes H.R.3633 294-134, with 78 Democrats joining all Republicans (confirmed, congress.gov/CNBC). - 2026-01 (Jan 2026): Senate Agriculture Committee approves companion market-structure bill (confirmed, bitcoinfoundation.org). - 2026-05-14: Senate Banking Committee votes 15-9 to advance compromise text; only Gallego (AZ) and Alsobrooks (MD) cross over as Democratic "yes" votes; Warren files 44 amendments, mostly rejected (confirmed, hodder.law/eco.com). - 2026-07-22: Senate Republicans release merged 616-page text combining Banking/Agriculture bills plus a new ethics title (bars officials/spouses from issuing digital assets, DOJ-only enforcement, 2029 sunset); seven Democratic negotiators say it "falls short" (confirmed, Paul Hastings/sumsub). - 2026-08-06/08: Senate advances procedurally before recess; Thune files cloture motion; Senate adjourns for August recess without a vote (confirmed, Coindesk/Troutman; congress.gov shows 2026-08-08 action). - 2026-08-17: Reports emerge that crypto negotiators sign onto language banning a "Trump-backed trust" as part of ethics compromise (reported, American Banker). - 2026-08-19/20: Trump and crypto executives (Armstrong, others) mount a last-ditch public push; White House hosts crypto leaders; bitcoin rallies ~12-20% on optimism (confirmed price action, reported causation, CNBC/CBS). - 2026-08-25: CNBC reports Kalshi traders price <25% odds of enactment by year-end 2026, <50% by April 2027 (confirmed market read). - 2026-09-01: SALT's John Darsie and others voice skepticism given midterm-year legislative calendar (opinion, CNBC). - 2026-09-09/12: Reports of a fresh ethics-related hurdle threatening the bill; Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly urges Senate passage (reported, AOL/NaturalNews). - 2026-09-15 (scheduled, outcome unconfirmed in data): Senate cloture vote on motion to proceed — the pivotal near-term event. # Event Will H.R.3633 (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) be signed into law by December 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor This ticker is tracked via Polymarket-sourced data in the research (no distinct Kalshi orderbook price returned): current YES ≈ 27.5%, up +13pts over 7 days and +9pts over 30 days, trading range 13.5%–74% over 160 days, volume $16.5M. Separately, CNBC reports Kalshi traders pricing <25% for enactment by year-end 2026. These two independent reads (Polymarket ~27.5%, Kalshi <25%) are closely aligned. # Sub-question answers 1. **Congress.gov status/Senate action** — Latest tracked action (2026-08-08): cloture motion on motion to proceed filed in Senate (CR S4557); no floor passage yet. A cloture vote was scheduled for 2026-09-15 [claude_news/congress_bills]. 2. **Committee markups/merger** — Senate Banking approved compromise text 15-9 (2026-05-14); Senate Agriculture approved companion bill (Jan 2026); texts merged into a single 616-page Senate vehicle released 2026-07-22 [claude_news]. 3. **Democratic support** — Only 2 Democrats (Gallego, Alsobrooks) backed the bill in committee; ~7 Democratic negotiators call the ethics title inadequate. Cloture needs 7+ Democrats with all 53 Republicans; sticking points (stablecoin yield, DeFi, Trump-family ethics/DOJ-only enforcement, 2029 sunset) remain unresolved as of Sept 2026 [claude_news, CNBC]. 4. **Thune/White House timeline** — Thune filed cloture for a 2026-09-15 vote; White House (Trump, Bessent) actively pushing for passage, but analysts (SALT's Darsie) note midterm-year floor time is scarce [CNBC, NaturalNews]. 5. **Bill vehicle** — Research does not clarify whether a Senate-passed version would proceed as an amendment to H.R.3633 or a separate bill; given the Senate is proceeding on H.R.3633 itself (motion to proceed to "the measure"), amendment-based passage under the same bill number appears likely, avoiding a separate reconciliation vehicle — but conference/reconciliation with House text would still be needed if amended. Not explicitly confirmed. 6. **Historical base rate** — Not directly answered by research; general context (Wikipedia: 119th Congress had lowest non-election-year House vote count in decades) plus multiple analyst comments suggest midterm-year passage of major regulatory bills is historically difficult. 7. **Polymarket/Kalshi agreement** — Polymarket 27.5% YES (up sharply recently); CNBC-reported Kalshi trader sentiment <25% by year-end. Both sources agree directionally: modest-minority probability, recently rising off a low base (30-day low 13.5%). # Key facts (high-confidence) 1. [congress.gov] House passed H.R.3633 7/17/2025, 294-134. 2. [claude_news] Senate Banking Committee advanced merged text 15-9 on 5/14/2026. 3. [claude_news] Merged 616-page ethics-inclusive text released 7/22/2026. 4. [CNBC] Senate adjourned for August recess without a vote; cloture vote set 9/15/2026. 5. [CNBC] Bill needs 60 votes; GOP holds 53 seats — needs 7+ Democrats. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no direct orderbook for this ticker returned; CNBC-reported Kalshi trader pricing <25% for 2026 enactment, <50% by April 2027. - Polymarket: 27.5% YES, +13pts/7d, +9pts/30d, high volume ($16.5M), extreme historical range (13.5%–74%) reflecting volatile sentiment around House passage/committee votes/recess delays. - No sportsbook data available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - SALT CEO John Darsie: skeptical, notes midterm years rarely see major legislation pass (CNBC, 9/1/2026). - BlackRock digital assets head Mitchnick: sees Clarity Act as less critical to bitcoin, "not banking on it" as base case (CNBC, 8/26/2026). - Coinbase's Armstrong, Trump, Bessent: actively lobbying for passage, framing bill as near-term priority. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Active White House push, scheduled cloture vote, merged Senate text exists, bipartisan committee crossover precedent (GENIUS Act 2025 enacted). Momentum (Polymarket +13pts/7d) suggests some real chance building into Sept 15 vote. - **No**: Missed August window, unresolved ethics/stablecoin/DeFi disputes, only 2 confirmed Democratic votes vs. 7+ needed, midterm-year calendar pressure, need for House-Senate reconciliation even if cloture succeeds, analyst skepticism, low Kalshi/Polymarket pricing (all <30%). # Gaps / unknowns - Outcome of the 2026-09-15 cloture vote not confirmed in data (event research cutoff appears to precede or coincide with it). - Unclear whether a Senate-passed bill would retain the H.R.3633 number or require conference. - No explicit historical base-rate statistic provided for midterm-year enactment of House-passed regulatory bills. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket/Kalshi-adjacent current pricing: ~25-27.5% YES. - Precedent: GENIUS Act (stablecoins) passed and enacted in 2025 (non-midterm year), showing crypto legislation can pass but under more favorable calendar conditions.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

42% conf

Yes	25%
No	75%

Markets are closely aligned at ~25-27.5% YES (Polymarket 27.5%, CNBC-reported Kalshi <25%), and the brief surfaces nothing unpriced. The bill has cleared the House and Senate committees, with a merged text and a scheduled 9/15 cloture vote plus heavy White House/Bessent/Armstrong lobbying, but it still needs 7+ Democrats when only Gallego and Alsobrooks have crossed over and seven Democratic negotiators say the ethics title 'falls short.' Even if cloture succeeds, Senate passage, House concurrence on an amended text, and signature must all fit into a midterm-year calendar with campaign recess and a compressed lame duck. I therefore land near the market consensus at ~25%, slightly discounting the recent Polymarket momentum given unresolved sticking points and structural calendar risk.

gpt-5.6-sol

69% conf

Yes	25%
No	75%

The 25% YES forecast closely follows the Kalshi-reported sub-25% price and Polymarket's 27.5% consensus. Senate committee action and a merged text create a viable path, while the White House push and scheduled September 15 cloture vote provide some momentum. However, only two Democrats supported the bill in committee versus at least seven needed for cloture, with ethics, stablecoin-yield, and DeFi disputes still unresolved. Even after successful cloture, limited midterm-year floor time and likely House-Senate reconciliation make enactment by December 31 difficult.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasters anchor almost mechanically on the Polymarket/Kalshi ~25-27.5% figure without independently stress-testing it against the sequential-probability chain (cloture pass → floor passage → House concurrence/conference → signature within a compressed midterm calendar); given how many discrete hurdles remain unresolved (ethics title, Trump-trust ban, DeFi/stablecoin yield disputes), a bottom-up multiplication of conditional probabilities might justify a lower number than the market consensus, yet neither forecast attempts this decomposition.

Neither forecast grapples with the critical unknown flagged in the brief: "Research cutoff appears to precede or coincide with" the 9/15 cloture vote — meaning the actual outcome of the single most decision-relevant event is unknown, and both forecasts treat this as background noise rather than the dominant source of uncertainty/variance.

Both forecasts underweight the "Bill vehicle" ambiguity (item 5): even a successful Senate vote likely requires reconciliation with the House-passed version rather than simple concurrence, adding a non-trivial additional hurdle within an already compressed year-end timeline that neither rationale explicitly prices in as a discount factor.

The forecasts don't address the momentum divergence puzzle: Polymarket is up +13pts/7d specifically ahead of 9/15, suggesting the market may already be pricing in an anticipated cloture success — if cloture does pass on 9/15, the "No" case rationale (only 2 of 7+ needed Democrats) becomes stale, yet neither forecaster flags how much their probability should update conditional on that one event, making the 25% figure oddly static for a binary catalyst sitting essentially at the forecast horizon.

Neither analyst weighs the countervailing bullish signal from the GENIUS Act precedent enough — a comparable crypto bill did pass in 2025 with bipartisan support, and active Trump/Bessent/Armstrong lobbying plus a 12-20% bitcoin rally on optimism could indicate stronger elite coordination than typical failed cloture attempts, yet both treat this precedent as a minor aside rather than testing whether it implies upside tail risk being underpriced.

Both forecasters converge suspiciously close to identical numbers (0.250/0.750) despite very different stated confidence levels (0.42 vs 0.69), which is itself worth flagging: high confidence in an outcome that hinges on an unresolved, imminent procedural vote with no confirmed result seems miscalibrated, and neither forecaster explains why their confidence differs so much despite reaching the same probability.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

26% (55% confidence)

Yes: 26% No: 74%

Both forecasters and both prediction markets (Polymarket ~27.5%, Kalshi <25%) converge on roughly a one-in-four chance, and the brief contains no information beyond what the market has priced. The critique's concerns pull in opposite directions: a bottom-up chain (cloture with only 2 confirmed Democrats vs. 7+ needed → Senate floor passage → House concurrence or conference → signature in a compressed midterm/lame-duck calendar) argues for a somewhat lower number, while the sharp +13pt Polymarket move into the 9/15 cloture vote, active Trump/Bessent/Armstrong lobbying, and the GENIUS Act precedent argue that a live path exists. Since the pivotal cloture outcome is unconfirmed, the appropriate stance is to stay near the well-informed market consensus rather than lean either way. I settle at 26% YES, nudged marginally toward the higher-volume Polymarket read.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 191.5s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.