Scan: Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related congress_bills congress_bills article_search claude_news wikipedia

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Kalshi YES price and how has it trended over the past 90 days?
Have any impeachment resolutions been introduced in the 119th Congress against cabinet-level officials, and have any been brought to the floor via privileged motion (and what happened to them — tabled, referred, or voted on)?
What is the current House partisan margin, how many vacancies exist, and is there any realistic path for Democrats to control the floor before Jan 3, 2027?
Have any House Republicans publicly stated they would vote to impeach a specific cabinet member (e.g., Hegseth over Signal/Pentagon controversies, Noem over DHS/ICE actions, Bondi over Epstein files, RFK Jr. over HHS)?
Are there active scandals or investigations involving cabinet members that have escalated to bipartisan calls for removal rather than just Democratic messaging?
What is the historical base rate of House impeachment of cabinet officers per Congress, and how many attempts (e.g., Mayorkas 2024, which succeeded under a GOP House against a Democratic administration) have occurred in the modern era?
Do related Kalshi/Polymarket markets (Trump impeachment, specific official impeachment, House control) imply a consistent probability?

Planner reasoning

This is a low-base-rate structural question: only one cabinet member (Belknap, 1876) has ever been impeached, and the House is Republican-controlled through the entire window (119th Congress ends Jan 3, 2027), so impeaching a Trump cabinet official would require majority-party defections or a forced privileged vote that survives tabling. Research should anchor on the Kalshi price, check for any pending impeachment resolutions against cabinet members (Hegseth, Noem, Bondi, RFK Jr., Vance, etc.), gauge whether any Republicans have signaled support, and confirm House margin/vacancy dynamics.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
kalshi_direct	OK	0.8s	1	## This Market's Kalshi Data Before 2027 (KXIMPEACHCABINET-27JAN01) - Current price (probability): 5.80% - 7-day price change: +1.30% - 30-day price change: -0.20% - Average daily volume: 288 contracts - Price range: 1.40% - 8.50% - Data points: 40 days
kalshi_related	OK	9.6s	1	1 related markets / summaries. series KXIMPEACH: 0 markets (skipped 4 no-signal) \| series KXIMPEACHCABINET: 0 markets (skipped 3 no-signal) \| keyword 'impeach': ok \| keyword 'Hegseth': no matches \| keyword 'Noem': no matches
polymarket_related	OK	9.6s	1	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 1 matches. keyword 'impeach': 1 markets \| keyword 'impeachment': 0 markets \| keyword 'Hegseth': 0 markets \| keyword 'Noem': 0 markets \| keyword 'Bondi': 0 markets
congress_bills	OK	13.4s	11	Found 11 bills matching 'impeaching Secretary'.
congress_bills	OK	13.4s	10	Found 10 bills matching 'articles of impeachment'.
article_search	OK	9.9s	19	Fetched 19 unique articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'impeachment resolution cabinet secretary House vote tabled': 10 articles \| 'House Republicans impeach Hegseth Noem Bondi Kennedy': 10 articles \| 'articles of impeachment Vance Secretary privileged resolution': 10 articles
claude_news	OK	21.9s	7	Based on research into the 119th Congress (2025-2026): - Multiple impeachment resolutions filed against cabinet members but none against Trump himself have reached a floor vote for cabinet officials specifically — Democrats introduced impeachment articles against several secretaries, but these
wikipedia	OK	9.5s	4	Fetched 4 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7495 chars

# Current state No cabinet member has been impeached by the House in the 119th Congress. Several Democratic-sponsored impeachment resolutions exist against cabinet officials (Hegseth, RFK Jr., McMahon; formerly Noem and Bondi before their ouster by Trump), but all remain stalled in the House Judiciary Committee — none has been forced to a floor vote via privileged motion, and the Republican-controlled House (slim ~3-seat majority) has no incentive to advance them against its own administration. Resolution requires House impeachment by 2027-01-01. # Timeline of key events - 2025-01-03: 119th Congress convenes; GOP holds slim ~3-seat House majority (confirmed, Wikipedia). - 2025-12-09: H.Res.935 introduced (Rep. Thanedar) impeaching Hegseth; referred to Judiciary (confirmed, congress.gov). - 2025-12-10: H.Res.944 introduced (Rep. Stevens) impeaching RFK Jr.; referred to Judiciary (confirmed). - 2026-01-14: H.Res.996 introduced (Rep. Kelly) impeaching Noem, 3 articles, ~140 cosponsors reported (confirmed intro, reported cosponsor count). - 2026-04-06/04-15: Additional Hegseth impeachment push (H.Res.1177, 6 articles) over Signal leaks/Iran war strikes; reported as Democrats' "top target" but "virtually no chance of passing" (reported, Axios/Time). - ~2026 (date unspecified in research, "recent months"): Noem and Bondi removed from office by Trump directly, mooting their impeachment resolutions (reported, Axios/claude_news synthesis). - 2026-06-25: H.Res.1391 introduced (Rep. Bonamici) impeaching Education Secretary McMahon; referred to Judiciary (confirmed). - 2026-07-23: House passes non-binding Iran war-powers rebuke 214-208 with 4 GOP defections (confirmed) — shows some bipartisan crossover exists on Iran/Hegseth-adjacent issues, but not on impeachment specifically. - No floor vote on any cabinet impeachment resolution has occurred as of latest data (mid-to-late 2026). # Event Will any Cabinet-level official (per defined list) be impeached by the U.S. House before Jan 1, 2027? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (impeached before 2027-01-01) - No # Kalshi market anchor **Current YES price: 5.80%** (KXIMPEACHCABINET-27JAN01). 7-day change: +1.30%; 30-day change: -0.20%. Range over 40 days: 1.40%–8.50%. Avg daily volume: 288 contracts (thin market). Trend is flat-to-slightly-rising but stays low single digits. # Sub-question answers 1. **Kalshi price/trend** — Current 5.80%, up 1.3pts in 7 days, down 0.2pts in 30 days; range 1.4%-8.5% over 40 days — low and range-bound (kalshi_direct). 2. **Impeachment resolutions introduced/floor action** — At least 6+ cabinet impeachment resolutions filed in 119th Congress (Noem H.Res.996, RFK Jr. H.Res.944, Hegseth H.Res.935 & H.Res.1177, McMahon H.Res.1391, Bondi H.Res.1105/1119); all referred to Judiciary Committee with no floor votes; none brought via privileged motion (congress_bills, claude_news). Contrast: Trump impeachment resolutions (H.Res.415, 939) WERE forced to floor via privileged motion and tabled 344-79/237-140 (claude_news). 3. **House partisan margin/Dem floor control** — GOP holds slim ~3-seat majority (Wikipedia); no realistic Democratic floor control before Jan 3, 2027 (next Congress starts after resolution window closes). 4. **GOP members supporting impeachment** — No evidence found of any House Republican publicly stating support for impeaching a specific cabinet member; GOP uniformly voted to table Trump impeachment measures (claude_news/factually.co). 5. **Bipartisan removal calls** — None found rising to bipartisan impeachment calls; Noem and Bondi were removed by Trump directly (executive action), not impeached, mooting those pushes (claude_news/Axios). 6. **Historical base rate** — Only 2 cabinet secretaries impeached in US history: Belknap (1876, same-party GOP Congress under Grant) and Mayorkas (2024, GOP House vs. Dem administration, succeeded 214-213 on 2nd attempt with full GOP unity) (Wikipedia). Zero instances of minority party impeaching same-party administration's cabinet official. 7. **Related markets implied probability** — KXTRUMPREMOVE (impeach+remove Trump) = 16%; KXIMPEACH (Trump impeached at all, by 2029) = 65%; Polymarket "Trump out by Sept 30" ≈ 0.95% (near-certain No). Cabinet impeachment (5.8%) prices meaningfully lower than Trump impeachment-only markets, consistent with cabinet officials being lower-profile/harder to force floor votes on than the president himself. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [kalshi_direct] Current YES = 5.80%, thin volume (~288/day). 2. [congress_bills] 6+ impeachment resolutions filed against cabinet members in 119th Congress, all stuck in Judiciary Committee. 3. [Wikipedia] GOP holds slim House majority (~3 seats); trifecta with Trump admin. 4. [Wikipedia] Only 2 cabinet impeachments in US history (Belknap 1876, Mayorkas 2024); both required same-party House majority acting against/within the executive of that era's circumstances — Mayorkas required full GOP unity against opposing-party administration. 5. [claude_news] Noem and Bondi removed by Trump before impeachment could proceed, mooting those specific resolutions. 6. [article_search] House GOP has shown occasional defections (4 members) on Iran war-powers votes, but not on impeachment matters. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXTRUMPREMOVE (impeach+remove Trump) = 16%; KXIMPEACH (Trump impeached, term) = 65% — both notably higher than cabinet market, reflecting Trump's higher political salience. - Polymarket: "Trump out as President by Sept 30" ≈ 0.95% Yes (near-certain No) — different scope (removal, not impeachment) but signals markets see near-zero near-term executive branch disruption. - Sportsbook: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Time/Axios (reported): Hegseth impeachment articles have "virtually no chance of passing this Congress" but signal Democratic messaging focus. - claude_news synthesis: "Bottom line" assessment is low probability absent major new scandal + GOP defections, consistent with base rates and current GOP unity. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Supporting — active multi-target Democratic effort, real scandals (Signal leaks, Epstein files, Iran war), precedent exists (Mayorkas) showing impeachment is possible under aligned majority. Opposing — no GOP crossover, House GOP has majority and no incentive, resolutions stuck in committee for over a year, targets with most momentum (Noem/Bondi) already mooted via removal not impeachment, only ~4 months remain to close. - **No**: Supporting — GOP trifecta, zero floor votes advanced, no historical precedent of minority impeaching same-party cabinet official, market itself prices only 5.8%. Opposing — a sudden new scandal or GOP defection remains a low but nonzero tail risk given documented occasional bipartisan votes on Trump policy issues. # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmed instance of any privileged motion attempt specifically for a cabinet impeachment (unlike Trump's). - Unclear if any pending scandal could escalate before Jan 1, 2027 (e.g., Epstein files fallout, new Hegseth revelations). - No polling data on GOP base attitudes toward specific cabinet officials found. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: 5.80% (primary anchor). - Historical precedent: cabinet impeachment is rare (2 instances in 150+ years), and never by a minority party against a same-party administration's cabinet — suggests true probability likely at or below market's 5.8%, absent unusual new developments.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

78% conf

Yes	4%
No	96%

Kalshi prices YES at 5.8% in a thin market; the brief shows all 6+ cabinet impeachment resolutions stuck in Judiciary with no floor votes, a GOP ~3-seat majority with zero Republicans publicly supporting any cabinet impeachment, and the most momentum-bearing targets (Noem, Bondi) already mooted by Trump's own removal. Historically no minority party has impeached a same-party administration's cabinet official, and only ~4 months remain before the window closes, with the next (potentially Democratic) Congress convening after Jan 1, 2027. A sudden scandal plus multiple GOP defections is the only path, and even a Democratic privileged motion would almost certainly be tabled as the Trump resolutions were. I shade slightly below the market given thin liquidity and the structural near-impossibility, while leaving a small tail for an unforeseen blow-up.

gpt-5.6-sol

79% conf

Yes	5%
No	95%

The 5.80% Kalshi YES price is the primary anchor, though thin volume limits its reliability. The six-plus resolutions stalled in Judiciary with no privileged floor motion point toward No, especially with only months remaining. The roughly three-seat GOP majority and absence of any Republican publicly supporting cabinet impeachment make passage unlikely; occasional GOP defections on war powers do not establish impeachment support. The extreme historical rarity of cabinet impeachment and the removal of Noem and Bondi further justify moving YES slightly below the market, while preserving a 5% tail for a sudden scandal and GOP defections.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasts undershoot the Kalshi anchor (5.8%) with 3.5% and 5.0% respectively, but neither adequately justifies why the "true" probability should be below market rather than at or slightly above it — the brief's calibration anchor explicitly says "likely at or below market's 5.8%," yet Forecast 1's 3.5% is a 40% relative discount from market with only thin-liquidity as justification, which is a weak reason to diverge so much from a live pricing signal.

Neither forecaster explicitly addresses the mechanism gap highlighted in the brief: Democratic resolutions could theoretically be forced via a discharge petition or privileged motion even without committee action (as Trump's resolutions were, albeit by the majority party) — the brief notes "none has been forced to a floor vote via privileged motion" specifically because House rules typically let any member force a privileged resolution to the floor within 2 legislative days, which is a live procedural tool Democrats haven't yet used but could still deploy in the remaining months, understating tail risk.

Both treat the Mayorkas precedent as merely "historical base rate" context, but it's a highly relevant analog they underweight: it shows a floor vote CAN succeed on the second attempt after initial failure, meaning procedural persistence matters — with multiple resolutions already introduced (Hegseth twice), there's underappreciated compounding risk from repeated attempts rather than treating each resolution as independent low-probability events.

Neither addresses the "Gaps/unknowns" section's explicit flag about the Epstein files fallout or new Hegseth revelations as an unresolved wildcard that could shift GOP defections — both forecasts gesture at "sudden scandal" as the tail risk but don't engage with the fact that Epstein-related fallout is already an active, named ongoing story rather than a purely hypothetical black swan.

Both forecasters lean on the same evidence and converge tightly (3.5%-5.0%), but neither models scenario variance or discusses why their confidence levels (0.78, 0.79) are so high given a thin, volatile market (range 1.4%-8.5% over 40 days, +1.3pt in just 7 days) — this volatility itself suggests more uncertainty in the "true" probability than the tight forecast spread implies.

Neither forecast discusses whether a change in Republican calculus could occur specifically around Hegseth given the escalating multi-resolution pattern (H.Res.935 then the more severe 6-article H.Res.1177) and the war-powers rebuke vote showing 4 GOP defections on Iran/Hegseth-adjacent issues — this specific crossover data point is dismissed too quickly as "not on impeachment specifically" without weighing that Hegseth is clearly the most vulnerable target with rising GOP unease.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

4% (78% confidence)

Yes: 4% No: 96%

The Kalshi anchor is 5.8% in a thin market, and both forecasters landed just below it; the critique correctly notes that a 40% discount is aggressive, but low-probability YES contracts in thin markets typically carry longshot bias, so a modest shade below market is defensible. Structurally, no minority party has ever impeached a same-party administration's cabinet official, every resolution has sat in Judiciary for months, no House Republican has endorsed any cabinet impeachment, and a Democratic privileged motion would almost certainly be tabled like the Trump resolutions were. The Hegseth path (Signal/Iran fallout, 4 GOP war-powers defections, possible lame-duck dynamics after the midterms) is the only real tail, and it still requires several Republicans to cross on impeachment itself within roughly four months. I settle at 4.5% YES, between the two forecasts and slightly below market.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 113.0s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.