Scan: Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-28	30%	23%	44%
2026-08-19	22%	16%	42%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

How many tropical cyclones have made landfall in the State of Hawaii (main islands plus Northwestern Hawaiian Islands) at Category 1 or higher strength since 1950, and what is the implied per-season probability?
What is the current ENSO state (El Niño / La Niña / neutral) and NOAA's forecast for late 2026, given El Niño years produce more Central Pacific hurricane activity near Hawaii?
What did the CPHC/NOAA 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook predict for the number of tropical cyclones, and how active has the 2026 season been so far?
Are there any currently active or forecast tropical cyclones in the Central or Eastern Pacific with a track toward Hawaii, per CPHC/NHC advisories?
How much of the climatological peak of the Central Pacific hurricane season (August–October) remains before December 31, 2026?
What is the current Polymarket price for this market and how has it moved, and are there related Kalshi or Polymarket markets on Hawaii hurricanes or Pacific hurricane counts?

Planner reasoning

Hurricane landfalls at Cat 1+ in Hawaii are historically very rare (Dot 1959, Iniki 1992; Iwa 1982 arguably no landfall), so the key drivers are the historical base rate (including the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, which broadens the target), the 2026 ENSO state and CPHC seasonal outlook, how much of the Aug-Oct peak season remains, and whether any current storm is threatening. The Polymarket price is the primary anchor, cross-checked against related Kalshi/Polymarket weather markets.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.4s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? - Current price (probability): 25.50% - 7-day price change: +9.50% - 30-day price change: +1.50% - Total volume: $32,117 (USD notional) - Price range: 7.50% - 56.00% - Data points: 45 days
polymarket_related	OK	3.2s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'hurricane Hawaii': 0 markets \| keyword 'Pacific hurricane': 0 markets \| keyword 'hurricane landfall': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	3.1s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'hurricane Hawaii': ok \| keyword 'Pacific hurricane season': ok \| keyword 'hurricane landfall': no matches
article_search	OK	1.0s	30	Fetched 30 unique articles across 5 queries (lookback=45d). 'Hawaii hurricane 2026': 10 articles \| 'Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory': 10 articles \| 'tropical storm Hawaii forecast': 10 articles \| '2026 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook': 10 articles \| 'El Nino 2026 forecast NOAA': 1
claude_news	OK	20.7s	10	## Findings: 2026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season & Hawaii Landfall Risk - NOAA 2026 Central Pacific outlook: NOAA's outlook for the 2026 hurricane season predicts a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 20% chance of near-normal, and 10% chance of below-normal, forecasting 5-13 tropical cy
gdelt_news	OK	92.6s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=30d). 'Hawaii hurricane': 10 hits \| 'Central Pacific Hurricane Center': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429) \| 'hurricane Honolulu': 10 hits
wikipedia	OK	0.2s	4	Fetched 4 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	38.0s	0	## Base Rate Analysis: Cat 1+ Hurricane Landfall in Hawaii Historical data (1950–2025, ~76 seasons): - Only 2 qualifying landfalls: Hurricane Dot (1959, Kauai) and Hurricane Iniki (1992, Kauai). Iwa (1982) excluded as a near-miss, not an official landfall. No confirmed NW Hawaiian Islands c

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 7475 chars

# Current state As of the most recent research (~Sept 6-7, 2026), Category 5 Hurricane Lowell is active in the Central Pacific with a Hurricane Warning in effect for Kauai County and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument (NWHI, Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals), with its forecast track passing "just west of the main Hawaiian Islands" — potentially through NWHI territory, which counts as "Hawaii" under this market's rules. Whether Lowell's surface center actually intersected any Hawaiian coastline (main islands or NWHI) at Category 1+ strength is NOT yet confirmed in available research — this is the pivotal open question. Separately, Hurricane Lala (Aug 2026) reached Cat1 strength near the Big Island but reporting is split on whether it technically made landfall. # Timeline of key events - **1959** — Hurricane Dot makes landfall on Kauai (Cat1+). *(confirmed, historical)* - **1982** — Hurricane Iwa passes near Hawaii; treated as a near-miss, not an official landfall. *(confirmed, historical)* - **1992-09** — Hurricane Iniki, Cat4, makes landfall on Kauai — the last confirmed Cat1+ Hawaii landfall on record; $3.1B damage, 7 deaths. *(confirmed, historical — Wikipedia)* - **2018** — Tropical Storm Olivia makes landfall on Maui at tropical-storm strength only (not a qualifying Cat1+ event). *(confirmed, historical)* - **2026-08-13** — Tropical Storm Lala forms near Hawaii; forecast to strengthen into a hurricane approaching the Big Island; state of emergency declared by Gov. Green. *(confirmed — CBS/CNN)* - **2026-08-14** — Hurricane Warning issued for the Big Island as Lala nears. *(confirmed)* - **2026-08-15** — Lala strengthens to Category 1 hurricane near the Big Island; some outlets frame it as poised to be "the first recorded hurricane landfall on the Big Island." *(reported, pre-event framing — CNN)* - **2026-08-16** — Lala weakens back to tropical storm; CNBC explicitly reports its "eyewall skirted Hawaii without making landfall," though it produced hurricane-force gusts, ~3 ft rain totals, flooding, 1 death, 100k+ power outages. *(reported — CNBC)* - **2026-08-16 (later)** — Wikipedia's "2026 Pacific hurricane season" article states Lala "became the first hurricane to directly hit the Big Island of Hawaii since 1871" — this conflicts with the CNBC "no landfall" reporting; likely reflects imprecise "direct hit" (proximity/impact) language rather than the technical center-crossing-coastline landfall definition. *(reported, unresolved conflict)* - **2026-09-03/04** — Hurricane Lowell forms/intensifies in the basin, threatens Hawaii alongside other Pacific systems. *(confirmed — KCRA, iHeart)* - **2026-09-06/07** — Lowell reaches Category 5; Hurricane Warning issued for Kauai County and NWHI (Nihoa–French Frigate Shoals); forecast track shows center crossing NWHI territory just west of the main islands. Landfall outcome NOT yet confirmed by research. *(confirmed advisory issuance; landfall itself unconfirmed/rumored)* # Event Will any storm make landfall in the State of Hawaii (main islands + NWHI) at Category 1+ strength per CPHC advisories, before Dec 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi price returned for this ticker in raw research; only unrelated Hawaii-tagged Kalshi markets found (stadium construction, Senate race — not useful comparables). **Polymarket serves as the best available cross-market anchor: current YES price 25.5%**, up +9.5% over 7 days (likely reflecting Lowell's emergence), roughly flat over 30 days (+1.5%). Price has ranged 7.5%–56% over 45 days of data (peak likely coinciding with Lala's Aug 15 approach or Lowell's Cat5 status), volume modest (~$32K total). # Sub-question answers 1. **Historical Cat1+ landfalls since 1950** — Only 2 confirmed qualifying events: Hurricane Dot (1959, Kauai) and Hurricane Iniki (1992, Kauai). Raw rate ≈2.6%/season; Bayesian-smoothed ≈3.25% (90% CI 0.76%–7.09%). [code_execution] 2. **ENSO state 2026** — El Niño conditions were forecast/expected for the 2026 hurricane season per NOAA CPC, with moderate-to-strong El Niño odds elevated; La Niña was declining as of Feb 2026, El Niño probability >58% from May-Jul onward. [claude_news, iri.columbia.edu] 3. **2026 CPHC outlook** — 70% chance above-normal season, 5–13 tropical cyclones forecast for Central Pacific. [weather.gov/hfo/hurricaneOutlook2026]. Season has been highly active: Lala (first Cat1 direct approach on Big Island since 1871), Genevieve (Cat5), Lowell (Cat5) — an unusually intense year. 4. **Active/forecast storms as of research cutoff** — Hurricane Lowell (Cat5) active with Hurricane Warning for Kauai County and NWHI monument; track passing just west of main islands as of Sept 6-7, 2026. [nhc.noaa.gov, claude_news] 5. **Season timing remaining** — September is historically the peak month for Hawaii impacts; activity typically tapers through October/November. As of the research window (~early Sept), roughly half of peak season (Aug–Oct) still lies ahead. [howtoliveinhawaii.com] 6. **Polymarket price** — 25.5% current, +9.5% 7d, +1.5% 30d; no other Kalshi/Polymarket markets specifically on this topic found. [polymarket_direct, kalshi_related, polymarket_related] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Wikipedia] Only 2 confirmed Cat1+ Hawaii landfalls since 1950s recordkeeping (Dot 1959, Iniki 1992). 2. [CNBC] Lala reached Cat1 (75 mph) near Big Island Aug 16, 2026, but its eyewall reportedly skirted the island "without making landfall." 3. [nhc.noaa.gov] Hurricane Lowell, Cat5, prompted Hurricane Warnings for Kauai County and NWHI monument as of Sept 6-7, 2026. 4. [weather.gov] NOAA forecast 70% chance of above-normal 2026 Central Pacific season (5-13 storms). # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no directly comparable Hawaii-hurricane markets found. - Polymarket: 25.5% YES, volatile (7.5%-56% range), recent uptick tied to Lowell. - Sportsbook implied: none available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - claude_news synthesis flags Lowell's NWHI track as "very close to qualifying" — outcome hinges on exact center-crossing. - Star-Advertiser (Aug 24) commentary on catastrophic Oahu hurricane risk reflects heightened seasonal anxiety, not new data. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Extraordinarily active 2026 season (El Niño-boosted, 2 Cat5s already), two separate near-landfall systems (Lala, Lowell) already occurred with Lowell's NWHI track ambiguous but plausible; season not yet over (Sept-Nov remaining). - **No**: Technical "landfall" (center crossing coastline) reportedly did NOT occur for Lala per CNBC; historical base rate for actual Cat1+ landfall is very low (~3%/season) even in active seasons; Polymarket at 25.5% suggests market skepticism that Lowell/Lala qualifies or that another storm will hit before year-end. # Gaps / unknowns - No confirmation whether Lowell's center actually crossed any NWHI landmass (Nihoa, French Frigate Shoals, Midway) at Cat1+ strength — this is the single most decision-relevant missing fact. - No official CPHC final/best-track determination on Lala's landfall status. - No visibility into Sept-Dec 2026 storm activity beyond Lowell. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price: 25.5% (current anchor). - Historical base rate: ~2.6%-3.25% per full season, but 2026 is a demonstrably outlier-active season with two Cat1+ near-misses already logged before Sept, suggesting probability well above climatological baseline.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

35% conf

Yes	30%
No	70%

The Polymarket anchor sits at 25.5% YES, up sharply on Cat5 Hurricane Lowell's approach with Hurricane Warnings for Kauai County and the NWHI, but the forecast track passes 'just west of the main islands' and NWHI landmasses (Nihoa, French Frigate Shoals) are tiny, making a technical center-crossing landfall a low-probability geometric event even with a nearby track. Lala's Aug 16 pass reportedly skirted the Big Island without a technical landfall per CNBC, though Wikipedia's 'direct hit' language creates some resolution ambiguity that adds a little YES probability. Remaining Sept–Nov season in an El Niño-boosted, hyperactive year (two Cat5s already) adds meaningful residual chance versus the ~3% climatological base rate. Netting these, I lean slightly above the market at ~30% YES.

gpt-5.6-sol

56% conf

Yes	28%
No	72%

The 25.5% Polymarket YES price is the best available consensus anchor, and Lowell’s Category 5 strength plus its forecast path through or near the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands supports a modest upward adjustment. The unusually active, El Niño-favored season and substantial peak-season time remaining also put the risk well above Hawaii’s roughly 3% historical annual landfall rate. However, Lala reportedly did not technically make landfall, Lowell’s center-crossing remains unconfirmed, and Hawaii hurricane landfalls are exceptionally rare even in active seasons. I therefore assign 28% to a qualifying landfall before 2027.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasts converge tightly around 28-30%, essentially anchoring on Polymarket without independently stress-testing whether that price itself is stale or mispriced given the 7.5%-56% range noted in the brief—neither explains why they trust the current 25.5% snapshot over the volatile history, which suggests herding on the anchor rather than independent synthesis.

Neither forecast adequately grapples with the possibility that Lowell's landfall question may already be resolved (YES) by the time the market closes given the advisory language "forecast track passing just west of the main islands—potentially through NWHI territory"; both treat this as a modest probability bump rather than seriously quantifying the geometric odds of a Cat5's exact cone crossing tiny NWHI islets (Nihoa, French Frigate Shoals are literally in the warned path), which could be a much larger conditional probability than 5-10%.

Both forecasters underweight the "resolution ambiguity" risk itself as a distinct scenario: if Wikipedia and CNBC already conflict on whether Lala made landfall, the market may resolve YES on looser sourcing/interpretation regardless of the technical CPHC best-track determination — this ambiguity could push toward YES resolution even without a clean center-crossing, and neither forecast models a scenario where the resolution criteria get interpreted loosely.

Neither forecast explicitly addresses the double-jeopardy structure of this question: TWO separate near-miss systems (Lala and Lowell) already occurred before September, and there are still 3+ months of peak-to-late season remaining (Sept-Nov) — multiplying two already-close-call events by residual season activity arguably justifies a probability closer to 35-40%, not a slight decrease from the Polymarket anchor.

Both treat the ~3% historical base rate as still highly relevant context, but this is a base rate for an entire "average" season, whereas 2026 has already produced two Cat5 storms and two threatening approaches — the brief's own "Bayesian-smoothed" 90% CI upper bound (7.09%) is for a generic season, not one already exhibiting this level of activity, so anchoring partly on stale climatology may create anchoring bias toward No.

Neither forecast considers whether Kalshi's specific contract (vs. Polymarket) might have different resolution sourcing (e.g., official NHC/CPHC best-track only, no Wikipedia-style loose language), which materially changes the probability of YES resolution — this is a critical unstated assumption both sides share without flagging the uncertainty.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

32% (46% confidence)

Yes: 32% No: 68%

Both forecasts sit near the 25.5% Polymarket anchor, but the anchor is thin (~$32K volume) and may not fully price a Category 5 with Hurricane Warnings covering Kauai County (including Niihau) and the NWHI from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals — a center-crossing of Niihau or an NWHI islet is geometrically unlikely but far from negligible for a track 'just west of the main islands.' Lala's Cat1 pass reportedly did not produce a technical landfall per CNBC, so it contributes only modest resolution-ambiguity risk. The remaining Sept–Nov window in an El Niño-boosted season with two Cat5s already adds several percentage points above climatology. Netting Lowell's conditional landfall odds (~15-20%), Lala ambiguity (~3-5%), and residual-season risk (~8-10%), I land slightly above both forecasts at 32% YES.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 226.6s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.