Scan: Will Boeing Company (The) report Above 620 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-29	80%	82%	69%
2026-08-22	86%	81%	70%
2026-06-22	82%	88%	50%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related claude_news article_search gdelt_news earnings_data wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

How many commercial airplanes did Boeing deliver in 2025, and what is the monthly run-rate in the most recent months (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026)?
Has the FAA approved Boeing increasing 737 MAX production above 38/month to 42/month (and beyond to 47/month), and when did or will those rate breaks take effect?
What is Boeing's official 2026 delivery guidance or analyst consensus for 2026 deliveries, and what production rates are targeted for the 787 (7 -> 8 -> 10/month) and 777X in 2026?
Are there supply-chain or labor constraints (Spirit AeroSystems fuselage quality, CFM LEAP engine supply, seat/interior shortages, machinist strikes) that could cap 2026 deliveries?
Will 777X (777-9) certification and first deliveries occur in 2026, and how many could contribute to the total?
How many completed-but-undelivered aircraft (inventory, e.g., China-bound 737s) does Boeing hold that could be delivered in 2026 to boost the count?
What is the base rate for Boeing hitting or missing its own annual delivery targets historically (2018-2025)?

Planner reasoning

This is a Kalshi question about whether Boeing's full-year 2026 commercial deliveries exceed 620, which would require a substantial ramp from 2025 levels (~600 range) driven by 737 MAX rate increases to 42+/month and 787 rate increases. Key drivers are FAA rate approvals, supplier constraints (Spirit AeroSystems integration, engine supply), 777X certification timing, and Boeing's own guidance. I anchor on the Kalshi price first, then triangulate with news on monthly delivery counts and production rate approvals.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
kalshi_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Kalshi Data Above 620 (KXBAA-28JANDELIV-620) - Current price (probability): 77.00% - 7-day price change: -5.00% - 30-day price change: +14.00% - Average daily volume: 1570 contracts - Price range: 63.00% - 90.00% - Data points: 20 days
kalshi_related	OK	0.7s	0	0 related markets / summaries. series KXBAA: 0 markets (skipped 8 no-signal) \| keyword 'Boeing deliveries': no matches
polymarket_related	OK	0.6s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'Boeing': 0 markets \| keyword 'Boeing deliveries': 0 markets
claude_news	OK	43.8s	21	Here are the key findings on Boeing's 2026 commercial delivery trajectory: - 2025 full-year baseline: For the full year 2025, Boeing delivered 600 commercial aircraft, including 447 737s, 88 787s, 35 777s, and 30 767s. (flightplan.forecastinternational.com) - Q1 2026 pace: Boeing commer
article_search	OK	1.0s	20	Fetched 20 unique articles across 6 queries (lookback=120d). 'Boeing 2026 delivery guidance commercial airplanes': 10 articles \| 'Boeing 737 MAX production rate FAA approval 42 per month': 10 articles \| 'Boeing monthly deliveries 2026': 10 articles \| 'Boeing 787 production rate increase 2026': 10 ar
gdelt_news	OK	128.0s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=60d). 'Boeing deliveries': 10 hits \| 'Boeing 737 MAX production rate': 10 hits \| 'Boeing 777X certification': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
earnings_data	OK	0.7s	1	Fetched FMP data for 1 ticker(s).
wikipedia	OK	0.5s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	50.1s	0	Quantitative findings – Boeing 2026 commercial deliveries >620 - Run-rate threshold: To exceed 620 in 2026, Boeing needs ≥621 deliveries → an average of >51.75/month (~52/month) sustained across all programs — well above every year since 2019 except roughly the 2018 peak (806, i.e. ~67/

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6932 chars

# Current state As of the most recent reported data (August 2026), Boeing's cumulative 2026 commercial deliveries stand at roughly 367-424 (sources conflict; monthly build-up reconciles to ~424 through August). The market resolves on whether full-year 2026 deliveries exceed 620 — Boeing needs to average ~49/month for the remaining four months (Sep-Dec), a bar it has already exceeded in 3 of the last 5 reported months (60, 64, 57). # Timeline of key events - 2025-12-31 (confirmed): FY2025 total = 600 deliveries (447 737, 88 787, 35 777, 30 767) — forecastinternational.com. - 2026-01–03 (confirmed): Q1 2026 = 143 deliveries, +10% YoY vs Q1 2025's 130 — flightsmilesandpoints.com. - 2026-04 (confirmed): 47 deliveries — CNBC. - 2026-05 (confirmed): 60 deliveries, strongest month of year to date; H1 pace tracking ahead of 2025 — CNBC. - 2026-05-27 (reported): CEO Ortberg says Boeing met FAA requirements to raise 737 MAX rate to 47/month; currently producing 42/month — CNBC. - 2026-06 (confirmed): 64 deliveries; H1 total = 314, highest H1 since 2018 — CNBC/aerotime. - 2026-06-05 (confirmed): New 737 MAX assembly line (Everett) begins production July 6, targeting MAX 10 — CNBC. - 2026-07 (confirmed): 53 deliveries; 737 MAX output only 37/month, missing the 42/month target — aerotime/forecastinternational. - 2026-07-28 (reported, possibly stale): Q2 earnings call — Boeing "reiterated" guidance of 500 deliveries for 2026 (conflicts sharply with actual run-rate already at 367+ through July); also confirmed no 777X delivery/timeline change (still 2027) — CNBC. - 2026-07-28 (confirmed): GE9X engine shipments (for 777X) paused over durability issue, expected to resume October — flightglobal.com. - 2026-08 (confirmed, with data conflict): August deliveries = 57; YTD reported as either 424 (internally consistent from monthly sums) or 385 (tipranks) — reconciliation favors ~424. - 2026-08-04 (confirmed): 737 MAX 7 receives FAA certification (first deliveries not until 2027). # Event Will Boeing report Above 620 commercial airplane deliveries in 2026 (KXBAA-28JANDELIV-620)? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (>620 deliveries in 2026) - No (≤620 deliveries in 2026) # Kalshi market anchor **Current YES price: 77%** (Above 620). 7-day change: -5pp (pullback, likely reflecting the July MAX rate miss). 30-day change: +14pp (reflecting strong May/June delivery beats). Avg daily volume: 1,570 contracts over 20 days; range 63-90%. Market is pricing this as likely but not certain, consistent with actual delivery momentum. # Sub-question answers 1. **2025 total / recent run-rate**: 2025 = 600 deliveries. 2026 monthly: Jan-Mar 143, Apr 47, May 60, Jun 64, Jul 53, Aug 57 → YTD Aug ≈ 424 (forecastinternational, CNBC, aerotime; note tipranks reports conflicting lower YTD figure of 385). 2. **FAA rate approval**: FAA replaced the 2024 hard 38/month cap with performance-based oversight; Ortberg says Boeing met requirements for 47/month, producing 42/month as of May 2026, though July actual output was only 37/month, missing target (CNBC, airinsight, aerotime). 3. **Guidance/targets**: One CNBC report cites Boeing "reiterating" 500-delivery guidance for 2026 — this conflicts with actual YTD pace already exceeding that trajectory and should be treated with caution (possibly a stale/misreported figure). 787 target rate is 8/month, with capacity potentially up to 120/yr; 777X targets no 2026 deliveries (first delivery 2027 per SEC 8-K, Wikipedia). 4. **Constraints**: GE9X (777X) engine shipments paused Jul-Oct 2026; cabin interior and LEAP engine supply bottlenecks persist; stored inventory drawdown largely exhausted by August, tying totals more directly to live production (forecastinternational); FAA proposed inspections on hundreds of 737s for seat installation issues (Jul 2026). 5. **777X in 2026**: No 2026 deliveries expected; TIA3 certification flight testing ongoing; first delivery still targeted 2027 (SEC 8-K, Wikipedia) — contributes 0 to 2026 total. 6. **Undelivered inventory**: 787 program still working down stored inventory (aiding deliveries), though largely depleted by mid-2026. China confirmed a 200-plane order (May 2026), which may include previously stored China-bound jets, though delivery timing unclear. 7. **Historical base rate**: 2018 ~806 (only year exceeding 620 in past 8 years); 2019-2024 all well below 620 (MAX grounding, COVID, strikes); 2025 = 600. Boeing has a strong recent history of missing self-set annual targets, though 2025-2026 shows a genuine recovery trend. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [forecastinternational] 2025 FY deliveries = 600. 2. [CNBC] H1 2026 deliveries = 314, best H1 since 2018. 3. [CNBC/aerotime] July 2026 = 53 deliveries; cumulative Jan-Jul ≈ 367. 4. [tipranks] August 2026 = 57 deliveries (YTD figure conflicts across sources: 424 vs 385). 5. [SEC 8-K, Wikipedia] 777X first delivery still expected 2027; zero 2026 contribution. 6. [flightglobal] GE9X shipment pause Jul-Oct 2026 (777X-specific, limited 2026 impact). # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no other KXBAA series markets returned signal. - Polymarket: no matching markets found. - Sportsbook implied: n/a. # Analyst opinions and speculation - CNBC Investing Club (Jeff Marks) bullish on delivery trajectory tied to FCF turnaround; upgraded Boeing rating July 28, 2026 citing delivery momentum. - code_execution Monte Carlo model (using conservative/possibly stale assumption of only 50% chance of reaching 47/month, and a 38/month cap baseline) estimates ~26% probability of >620 — this likely understates actual momentum, since real data already shows monthly output (53-64) well above the ~49/month pace needed for Q4, and Ortberg confirmed 47/month approval already granted in May. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (>620)**: Supported by strong actual 2026 run-rate (424 through August, needing only ~49/month for remainder vs. recent 53-64/month actuals), FAA rate-cap easing, and record backlog pressure to deliver. Recent pullback (July MAX output miss, GE9X pause) and possible stale "500 guidance" report are headwinds. - **No (≤620)**: Supported by Boeing's poor historical track record hitting targets (2019-2024), July MAX shortfall (37 vs 42 target), inventory drawdown removing a cushion, and 777X contributing zero. # Gaps / unknowns - Reconciliation needed for conflicting July/August YTD delivery totals (367 vs 424 vs 385). - No confirmed September onward 2026 monthly data. - Unclear whether "500 delivery guidance" is a genuine current Boeing figure or misreport. - No official Boeing full-year 2026 delivery target found beyond disputed 500 figure. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: 77% (anchor). - Precedent: 2025 delivered 600 (missed 620 threshold); 2018 delivered ~806 (only recent year clearing 620); actual 2026 trajectory through August (~424) is meaningfully ahead of 2025's pace at the same point.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

62% conf

Yes	78%
No	22%

Monthly build-up (Q1 143, Apr 47, May 60, Jun 64, Jul 53, Aug 57) reconciles to ~424 YTD through August, leaving ~197 needed over Sep-Dec, or ~49/month — below the average of the last four reported months (~58) and below 2025's own Sep-Dec pace (~220 total). Boeing seasonally delivers strongly in Q4, and FAA approval for 47/month MAX output plus 787 at ~8/month gives underlying production of roughly 50+/month even without stored-inventory help. Headwinds are real: July MAX output was only 37/month, the stored-inventory cushion is largely gone, and Boeing has a history of missing targets, so a couple of weak months could leave the total near 600-620. The Kalshi anchor of 77% aligns well with this fundamentals picture; I stay close to it with a slight upward tilt given the run-rate math.

gpt-5.6-sol

67% conf

Yes	79%
No	21%

The 77% Kalshi YES price is the primary anchor. The internally consistent monthly series totals about 424 deliveries through August, implying Boeing needs roughly 49 per month over September–December, below each of the last four reported delivery months except April. FAA approval for higher 737 MAX production and residual 787 inventory support that pace, while the July production miss, supply constraints, depleted stored inventory, and zero 777X deliveries create downside risk. The conflicting 385 YTD figure and disputed 500-delivery guidance prevent a larger move above the market consensus, but the reconciled run-rate supports a modest increase to 79%.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasts converge tightly around 78-79%, essentially just hugging the Kalshi anchor with minimal independent reasoning — neither stress-tests how sensitive the outcome is to the July MAX shortfall (37 vs 42 target) persisting into Q4, which would meaningfully lower the required run-rate cushion.

Neither forecast explicitly addresses the GE9X pause "expected to resume October" — if it slips further, this is a 777X-specific issue with "limited 2026 impact" per the brier, but neither confirms this assumption is safe rather than just asserting it.

Both treat the 385 vs 424 YTD discrepancy as resolved in favor of 424, but neither quantifies the probability that the lower 385 figure (or the "reiterated 500 guidance") reflects real internal Boeing data — if guidance really is 500, that's a meaningful red flag about undisclosed headwinds (e.g., a production slowdown not yet reflected in monthly deliveries) that neither model incorporates into their downside case.

Neither forecaster discusses the FAA's proposed inspections on hundreds of 737s for seat installation issues (Jul 2026), which is a tail-risk disruption to delivery cadence that could abruptly interrupt the assumed steady 50+/month pace — this is a plausible source of a sharp negative surprise that's absent from both rationales.

Both cite "Boeing's history of missing targets" as a headwind but don't weight how much less relevant that base rate is now that stored-inventory cushion is depleted and deliveries are more directly tied to live production — arguably the 2019-2024 miss history (driven by MAX grounding/COVID/strikes) is a weaker analog for 2026's environment, so leaning on it as a symmetric risk may be overly conservative.

Neither model gives an explicit numeric distribution or scenario analysis (e.g., P(Sep-Dec avg ≥49) under a continued 37/month MAX rate) — both jump straight to a point estimate near 78-79% without showing the sensitivity of that number to the specific monthly split needed, making it hard to assess whether the confidence is justified versus just anchoring.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

78% (64% confidence)

Yes: 78% No: 22%

The monthly series (Q1 143, Apr 47, May 60, Jun 64, Jul 53, Aug 57) is internally consistent with the confirmed H1=314 and Jan-Jul=367 checkpoints, so ~424 YTD through August is the reliable figure and the 385/'500 guidance' numbers are almost certainly stale or misreported. Boeing needs ~197 over Sep-Dec (~49/month), below the ~58/month average of the last four months, below 2025's own Sep-Dec pace (~220), and roughly at underlying live production even if MAX output stays near 37/month (37 MAX + ~8 787 + ~5 777/767 ≈ 50). The critique's downside points — July MAX shortfall persisting, depleted stored inventory, the 737 seat-inspection tail risk, and Boeing's execution history — are real and justify meaningful No mass, since a couple of weak months could land the total in the 600-620 range; the GE9X pause is 777X-only and irrelevant to 2026 totals. The market at 77% already prices this reasonably well, so I stay close to both forecasters and the anchor at 78%.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 249.3s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.