Scan: Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-30	13%	14%	67%
2026-08-23	18%	24%	64%
2026-08-16	17%	18%	62%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct congress_bills congress_bills claude_news article_search gdelt_news kalshi_related polymarket_related wikipedia

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current legislative status of H.R.3633 on Congress.gov — has the Senate Banking Committee marked up and reported its market-structure bill, and is it attached to H.R.3633 or a separate Senate bill (e.g. the Responsible Financial Innovation Act)?
Has Senate Majority Leader Thune scheduled or signaled floor time for crypto market structure in 2026, and how many Democratic votes are committed to reach 60 for cloture?
What are the remaining substantive sticking points (stablecoin yield/rewards, DeFi treatment, ethics/Trump family conflict provisions, SEC vs CFTC jurisdiction) and have the parties (banks, Coinbase, Democrats like Gallego/Warner) reached a deal?
If the Senate passes an amended version, will the House accept it or require conference, and can that be completed before the 2026 midterm election recess and lame-duck session ends?
What is the historical base rate for House-passed major financial regulation bills passing the Senate and being signed in the second session of a Congress, particularly in midterm election years?
How are Kalshi and Polymarket pricing this and related markets (e.g. 'Senate passes Clarity Act by X date'), and do the venues disagree?

Planner reasoning

The Clarity Act passed the House in July 2025 and has been stalled in the Senate, where Banking Committee markup was repeatedly delayed over stablecoin yield and DeFi disputes; the key uncertainties are Senate floor timing, whether the Senate passes an identical text or a substitute that returns to the House, and whether it stays tethered to H.R.3633 as the vehicle. Polymarket's own price is the primary anchor, with Kalshi cross-market pricing and recent legislative news as key updates.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.1s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? - Current price (probability): 16.50% - 7-day price change: +3.00% - 30-day price change: -4.00% - Total volume: $14,118,778 (USD notional) - Price range: 13.50% - 53.00% - Data points: 90 days
congress_bills	OK	5.6s	9	Found 9 bills matching 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act'.
congress_bills	OK	5.0s	8	Found 8 bills matching 'Responsible Financial Innovation Act digital asset market structure'.
claude_news	OK	29.8s	20	## Key Findings: CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) Status - Senate Banking Committee markup completed: On May 14, 2026, the committee advanced the CLARITY Act by a vote of 15-9 , with all 13 Republicans joined by two Democrats, though they indicated that their committee votes did not guarantee support
article_search	OK	4.2s	16	Fetched 16 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=45d). 'Clarity Act Senate Banking Committee markup crypto market structure': 10 articles \| 'Senate crypto market structure bill stablecoin yield Democrats': 10 articles \| 'Thune floor vote crypto market structure 2026': 10 articles \| 'Clarity Act
gdelt_news	OK	114.6s	10	GDELT: 10 articles across 2 queries (lookback=30d). 'Clarity Act Senate crypto': 10 hits \| 'crypto market structure bill Senate Banking': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429)
kalshi_related	OK	3.6s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Clarity Act': ok \| keyword 'crypto market structure': ok \| keyword 'stablecoin': no matches
polymarket_related	OK	0.1s	1	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 1 matches. keyword 'Clarity Act': 1 markets \| keyword 'market structure': 0 markets \| keyword 'crypto bill': 0 markets
wikipedia	OK	0.2s	2	Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 6960 chars

# Current state As of Sept 2026, H.R.3633 passed the House 294-134 (July 2025) and cleared Senate Banking Committee 15-9 (May 2026), but the Senate has not passed any version. A cloture motion on the motion to proceed was pending for a Sept 15, 2026 procedural vote — a 60-vote hurdle needed just to begin floor debate, not final passage. Ethics (Trump family conflicts), stablecoin yield, and DeFi treatment remain unresolved; no bipartisan deal confirmed. Market pricing has crashed from ~80%+ earlier in 2026 to ~15-22% now. # Timeline of key events - 2025-07: House passes H.R.3633 294-134 (confirmed, claude_news/CNBC). - 2026-05-14: Senate Banking Committee advances CLARITY Act 15-9, with Democrats Gallego (AZ) and Alsobrooks (MD) crossing over; ethics provision flagged as unresolved (confirmed, Elliptic/Hodder Law). - 2026-08-08: Senate departs for August recess without floor vote; cloture motion on motion to proceed filed for after recess (confirmed, CNBC/congress.gov CR S4557). - 2026-08-19/20: Trump and crypto executives (Coinbase CEO) publicly push for passage; Bitcoin rallies ~12% on optimism; Warren criticizes ethics provisions as insufficient (confirmed, CNBC/CBS/CNN). - 2026-08-25: CNBC reports Kalshi traders pricing <25% chance of 2026 enactment, <50% by April 2027 (reported). - 2026-09-01: CNBC reports pessimism deepening; Thune schedules Sept 15 procedural cloture vote; Gallego working on ethics compromise (reported). - 2026-09-02: Prediction market analysis (predictionhunt) cites Senate odds falling to ~24% with 60-vote hurdle still unmet (reported). - 2026-09-05: Gizmodo reports "major setback" for CLARITY Act (reported). - Congress.gov latest action (as retrieved): "Cloture motion on the motion to proceed... presented in Senate" dated 2026-08-08 (confirmed, congress.gov). # Event Will H.R.3633 (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) be passed by both chambers and signed into law by Dec 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (signed into law by Dec 31, 2026) - No # Kalshi market anchor No direct kalshi_direct price was returned for this ticker; cross-referenced reporting (CNBC 8/25) states Kalshi order books implied <25% chance of 2026 enactment and <50% by April 2027. Polymarket's own matching market prices YES at 16.5% (down from a 30-day high of 53%, range 13.5–53%, $14.1M volume, +3% 7-day/-4% 30-day trend) — treat this as the primary consensus anchor given no fresher Kalshi-direct figure. # Sub-question answers 1. **Senate Banking status/attachment**: Senate Banking Committee reported its own market-structure bill (advanced 15-9, May 2026); it is not simply H.R.3633 but a Senate companion effort intertwined with Senate Agriculture Committee work and prior bills (S.4064/S.3755 Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act). Congress.gov shows H.R.3633 itself now subject to a Senate cloture motion (8/8/2026) [congress_bills, claude_news]. 2. **Thune scheduling/60 votes**: Thune filed cloture on motion to proceed, teeing up a Sept 15, 2026 procedural vote; Republicans (53 seats) need 7-8 Democratic votes for cloture — not yet secured [CNBC, claude_news, predictionhunt]. 3. **Sticking points/deal status**: Ethics/Trump-family conflict provisions, stablecoin yield rules, and DeFi treatment remain unresolved as of Sept 2026; Gallego reportedly negotiating a bipartisan ethics compromise, but no finalized deal reported [CNBC 9/1, Hodder Law]. 4. **House/conference feasibility**: Not yet reached — Senate hasn't even passed its version; if amended, reconciliation with House-passed text and Senate Agriculture Committee's parallel bill would be required before any signature, with a shrinking calendar (~14 working days before Oct recess) [claude_news/qz.com]. 5. **Historical base rate**: No explicit base-rate stat provided in research; qualitatively, major financial regulation rarely passes in a midterm-election second session absent bipartisan consensus (SALT executive quote: "leading into the midterms, you don't often pass legislation of this magnitude") [CNBC 9/1]. 6. **Kalshi vs Polymarket**: Both venues show similar low odds (~15-25%) with a wide recent range (Polymarket high of 53% earlier in 2026); no material divergence reported, though CNBC notes some nuance (Kalshi <25% for 2026, <50% by April 2027) [CNBC 8/25, Polymarket direct]. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [congress.gov] H.R.3633 passed House 294-134 (July 2025); latest Senate action is a cloture motion on motion to proceed (8/8/2026). 2. [Elliptic/Hodder Law] Senate Banking Committee advanced its bill 15-9 (5/14/2026), only 2 Democrats (Gallego, Alsobrooks) crossed over. 3. [CNBC] Senate left for August recess without a floor vote; cloture vote set for Sept 15, 2026. 4. [CNBC] Republicans hold 53 Senate seats; need 7-8 Democrats for 60-vote cloture — not secured. 5. [claude_news] Unresolved: ethics/Trump-family provisions, stablecoin yield, DeFi framework. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no direct ticker price returned; secondary reporting cites <25% (2026) / <50% (Apr 2027) [CNBC 8/25]. - Polymarket: 16.5% YES, down from 53% high, $14.1M volume, softening 30-day trend (-4%) but a mild 7-day bounce (+3%) possibly tied to Sept 15 vote anticipation. - Sportsbook implied: none available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - SALT CEO Darsie: pessimistic, cites midterm-year difficulty passing major legislation. - Sen. Lummis: "Death by 1,000 cuts is just as fatal as a bullet" — pessimistic. - SEC Chair Atkins: optimistic outlier, expects eventual passage. - Predictionhunt/CCN: note volatility — a single credible whip-count leak could swing odds sharply either direction; $818K wallet bet against passage. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Trump/industry lobbying pressure, Bitcoin rally on optimism, SEC Chair's public confidence, possible late ethics compromise (Gallego). - **No** (favored): No 60-vote cloture secured; unresolved substantive disputes; shrinking legislative calendar before midterms; consensus market pricing (~15-24%) and lobbyist/lawmaker pessimism; even Senate passage would still require conference with House and Senate Agriculture Committee text. # Gaps / unknowns - Outcome of the Sept 15, 2026 cloture vote (not resolved in research). - Whether Gallego's ethics compromise gains enough Democratic support. - No confirmed Kalshi-direct current YES price for this specific ticker (relying on secondary reporting + Polymarket parity). - No hard historical base-rate stat for midterm-year major fin-reg passage. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES: 16.5% (current), down from 53% peak, $14.1M volume — primary quantitative anchor. - Reported Kalshi-adjacent estimate: <25% for 2026 passage, <50% by April 2027. - Precedent: GENIUS Act (stablecoins) passed in 2025 under similar GOP trifecta — shows viability of crypto legislation, but CLARITY Act is more contentious (ethics, DeFi, SEC/CFTC turf) and now faces midterm-year time pressure.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

55% conf

Yes	17%
No	83%

The bill passed the House 294-134 and cleared Senate Banking 15-9, but as of Sept 2026 the Senate has not even invoked cloture on the motion to proceed, with Republicans still short of the 7-8 Democratic votes needed for the Sept 15 procedural vote. Ethics/Trump-family, stablecoin-yield, and DeFi disputes remain unresolved, and even Senate passage would require reconciling with House text and Senate Agriculture's parallel bill in a compressed midterm-year calendar. Polymarket prices YES at 16.5% and CNBC-reported Kalshi order books imply <25% for 2026, with lawmaker and lobbyist sentiment (Lummis, SALT) pessimistic. A lame-duck deal driven by Trump/industry pressure and a Gallego ethics compromise keeps meaningful tail probability, so I anchor near consensus at ~17%.

gpt-5.6-sol

72% conf

Yes	15%
No	85%

The primary consensus anchor is Polymarket’s 16.5% YES price, consistent with secondary reporting that Kalshi implied less than 25%. The Senate must first clear a 60-vote procedural hurdle despite Republicans holding only 53 seats, and only two Democrats supported the Banking Committee bill. Ethics, stablecoin-yield, and DeFi disputes remain unresolved, while an amended Senate version would still need reconciliation with the House and parallel Agriculture Committee work. These additional sequencing and calendar risks justify a modest discount from the 16.5% anchor.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasts converge tightly (0.15-0.17) essentially replicating the Polymarket anchor without independently stress-testing whether that anchor itself might be stale or thin — the brief notes Polymarket has swung from 53% high to 16.5% with only a mild 7-day bounce (+3%), suggesting real volatility that neither forecaster incorporates into wider uncertainty bands or scenario planning around the Sept 15 vote outcome.

Neither forecaster explicitly addresses the compressed timeline mechanics: even if cloture succeeds Sept 15, the brief notes "~14 working days before Oct recess" and then conference reconciliation with House text plus Senate Agriculture's parallel bill — this multi-stage sequencing risk deserves more explicit modeling rather than a single blended discount, since each stage (cloture pass, floor passage, conference, House re-vote, signature) has its own failure probability that should compound rather than be treated as one lump discount.

Both forecasters cite "Gallego ethics compromise" as an upside scenario but neither quantifies how a successful whip-count leak (mentioned in the brief: "a single credible whip-count leak could swing odds sharply either direction") could rapidly re-rate the market, meaning their point estimates may understate the true variance/fat-tailedness of this event over the next three months.

The GENIUS Act precedent (stablecoins passed 2025 under similar GOP trifecta) is mentioned in the brief but neither forecaster discusses why CLARITY's added complexity (DeFi, SEC/CFTC turf, ethics) makes it meaningfully harder — this comparison could have been used to sanity-check whether 15-17% is too pessimistic given a recent successful crypto-bill passage, or conversely to justify why this bill is different.

Neither rationale explicitly weighs the lame-duck/post-midterm session possibility separately — the Dec 31, 2026 close date means only a narrow pre-midterm window plus a potential lame-duck session in Nov-Dec matters, and legislative dynamics (retiring members, election outcomes affecting leverage) in a lame-duck could differ substantially from the pre-recess dynamics currently described, yet this scenario isn't disaggregated from the general "Yes" pathway.

Both forecasters cite Kalshi's "<25% for 2026" as corroborating evidence, but the brief explicitly states no direct Kalshi price was retrieved for this ticker — treating secondary reporting as equally authoritative to Polymarket's live $14.1M-volume market may overstate confidence in the anchor's precision, and neither forecaster flags this data-quality gap as a source of residual uncertainty.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

16% (64% confidence)

Yes: 16% No: 84%

Both forecasters landed near the Polymarket anchor (16.5%) and the secondary Kalshi report (<25%), and the critique, while raising valid points about compounding stage risks and lame-duck dynamics, does not identify a directional flaw that would justify moving materially away from that anchor. The sub-questions uniformly point to 'No': cloture on the motion to proceed is unsecured with only two Democrats having supported the committee bill, three substantive disputes remain open, and even Senate passage would require reconciliation with House text and Senate Agriculture's parallel bill in a midterm-year calendar. The multi-stage sequencing (cloture, floor passage, conference, House re-vote, signature) compounds against Yes, but a lame-duck session driven by Trump/industry pressure and a possible Gallego ethics deal preserves a real tail, consistent with the GENIUS Act showing crypto legislation can move under this trifecta. I settle at 16% Yes, essentially the market consensus, since the brief offers no information beyond what traders have priced.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 195.7s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.