Scan: Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? — For tax year 2026

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-29	83%	82%	64%
2026-08-22	90%	89%	70%
2026-06-09	85%	83%	65%

1. Planner Fable 5.1 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related fred article_search claude_news code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What exact data source and definition (IRS Data Book gross collections, Monthly Treasury Statement receipts, fiscal vs calendar year, gross vs net of refunds) does the Kalshi market use to resolve, and does it include CBP-collected tariffs?
What is the historical base rate of IRS gross collections (or federal receipts) rising year-over-year since 1960, and in which years did they fall (recessions, 2001-2003 tax cuts, 2009, 2018)?
How large is the CBO/JCT/Treasury estimated revenue reduction from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in FY2026/CY2026, especially from retroactive 2025 provisions refunded in spring 2026 and reduced 2026 withholding?
What were total IRS collections / federal receipts in 2025, and what is the year-to-date 2026 trend in Monthly Treasury Statement receipts (individual withheld, corporate, refunds issued) versus the same months of 2025?
What is the expected nominal GDP, wage, and employment growth for 2026, and is there meaningful recession risk that would depress income and payroll tax receipts?
Have IRS staffing reductions measurably reduced enforcement/collections revenue or refund processing speed in 2025-2026?
How did the 2025 stock-market and asset-price performance affect 2026 capital gains realizations and non-withheld tax payments (April 2026 filing season)?

Planner reasoning

Federal tax receipts rise year-over-year in the vast majority of years, but 2026 is unusual: the OBBBA tax cuts (larger standard deduction, no tax on tips/overtime, expanded SALT cap, retroactive refunds in early 2026) reduce withholding and boost refunds, while IRS workforce cuts may impair enforcement collections. Key uncertainties are the exact resolution source/definition (IRS Data Book gross collections vs Treasury receipts, calendar vs fiscal year, whether tariffs count), the size of the OBBBA revenue hit relative to nominal GDP growth, and whether a recession or capital-gains slump materializes.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
kalshi_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Kalshi Data For tax year 2026 (KXIRSCOLLECT-26) - Current price (probability): 82.00% - 7-day price change: -1.00% - 30-day price change: +1.00% - Average daily volume: 66 contracts - Price range: 75.00% - 90.00% - Data points: 37 days
kalshi_related	OK	6.9s	3	3 related markets / summaries. series KXIRSCOLLECT: 0 markets (skipped 1 no-signal) \| keyword 'IRS collect': ok \| keyword 'tax revenue': ok \| keyword 'federal receipts': ok
polymarket_related	OK	6.9s	5	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 5 matches. keyword 'IRS': 5 markets \| keyword 'tax revenue': 0 markets \| keyword 'federal deficit': 0 markets \| keyword 'recession 2026': 0 markets
fred	OK	9.2s	6	Fetched 6 FRED series (lookback=730d) (via search 'federal government current receipts individual income taxes monthly').
article_search	OK	7.4s	24	Fetched 24 unique articles across 4 queries (lookback=120d). 'IRS tax collections 2026 versus 2025 Monthly Treasury Statement receipts': 10 articles \| 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act revenue loss 2026 withholding refunds': 10 articles \| 'IRS staffing cuts collections enforcement revenue decline': 10 art
claude_news	OK	22.4s	11	Based on research, here are the key findings for this forecasting question: - YTD FY2026 receipts are running well ahead of FY2025: As of November 2025 (FY2026), net receipts total in the current fiscal year to date period is 17.80 percent higher than in the same period last fiscal year , with
code_execution	OK	43.4s	0	Base-rate analysis (FY1960–2025, n=65 YoY comparisons): - Overall base rate of a YoY increase in federal receipts: ~89% (7 decline years identified: 1971, 1983, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2009, 2020). - Conditional on a major tax cut taking effect that year (ERTA 1983, Bush cuts 2002-03, TCJA 201

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5 · 5963 chars

# Current state FY2026 (Oct 2025–Sep 2026) federal/Treasury receipts are running measurably ahead of FY2025 on a year-to-date basis, driven largely by new tariff revenue that more than offsets income-tax reductions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA); CBO's official FY2026 baseline forecasts total receipts of ~$5.58T vs FY2025's ~$5.235T actual (+~6.6%). Kalshi currently prices YES at 82%, consistent with realized YTD Treasury data rather than a standalone Fermi model that (using only GDP-growth vs. OBBBA-cost assumptions, without real 2026 data) implied a much lower ~20-30% probability. # Timeline of key events - 2025 (mid-year): OBBBA enacted; estimated to cut 2025 individual income taxes by ~$129B and to raise 2026 refunds by up to ~$100B, with lower 2026 withholding tables (Tax Foundation) — confirmed. - 2025-09-30: FY2025 closes with total federal receipts ≈$5.235T (CBO/JEC) — confirmed. - 2025 (through Jan 2026): IRS enforcement/collections staffing falls ~27% (from ~102,000 to ~74,000 employees); audit revenue drops 35% FY2025 ($10B→$6.5B) per TIGTA — confirmed (report published 2026-08-26, reported widely 2026-09-01/02). - 2025-12: JEC Senate report shows FY2026 YTD (through Nov) net receipts +17.8% vs same FY2025 period ($740.4B cumulative) — confirmed. - 2026 (through Feb): Bipartisan Policy Center deficit tracker shows cumulative FY2026 receipts $174B (5%) above same FY2025 period — confirmed. - 2026-02: CBO's updated 10-year baseline projects FY2026 receipts $5.58T, with tariffs ~7.5% of receipts (up from historical ~1.4%) — confirmed. - 2026-05 to 07-10: Kwong v. United States ruling opens possible additional refund claims tied to COVID-era penalties — reported, minor/uncertain fiscal impact. # Event Will IRS/federal tax collections in 2026 exceed those in 2025 (Kalshi ticker KXIRSCOLLECT-26)? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor YES trading at **82%** (7-day: -1pt, 30-day: +1pt); 30-day range 75-90%; thin liquidity (~66 contracts/day avg over 37 days). Market has been stably high, suggesting consensus leans strongly toward YES. # Sub-question answers 1. **Resolution source/definition** — Not documented in rules; likely Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement or IRS Data Book gross collections, but FY vs CY and tariff (CBP-collected) inclusion is unconfirmed. Gap — a key structural uncertainty. 2. **Historical base rate** — ~89% of years since 1960 saw receipts rise YoY; declines occurred in 1971, 1983, 2001-03, 2009, 2020 (code_execution model). Conditional on a major tax cut, P(increase) drops to ~40%; conditional on no recession, P(increase) ~92%. 3. **OBBBA revenue impact** — Estimated to cut 2025 individual income taxes ~$129B and could add up to $100B in 2026 refunds; withholding tables lowered for 2026 (Tax Foundation). Modeled net drag estimates range $150B-$500B (code_execution), but actual YTD data show total receipts still rising due to tariffs. 4. **2025 collections & 2026 YTD trend** — FY2025 total receipts ≈$5.235T (CBO). FY2026 YTD receipts +17.8% through November 2025, and +5% ($174B) cumulative through February 2026 (JEC, BPC) — real-time data supports growth, not decline. 5. **Growth/recession risk** — Nominal GDP rose from $30.04T (Q1 2025) to $32.49T (Q2 2026, FRED GDP), payrolls grew modestly (158.4M→159.1M, PAYEMS), unemployment steady 4.1-4.4% (UNRATE) — no recession signal; supports revenue growth. 6. **IRS staffing effects** — Confirmed: 27% staffing cut, audit revenue down 35% in FY2025 ($10B→$6.5B, TIGTA), tax liens up 9% YoY. This reduces enforcement-driven collections but is a small fraction of total receipts versus tariff gains. 7. **2025 asset markets/capital gains** — No specific research found on 2026 filing-season capital gains realizations; gap. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [JEC/Treasury] FY2026 YTD receipts +17.8% through Nov 2025 vs FY2025. 2. [BPC] Cumulative FY2026 receipts +5% ($174B) through Feb 2026. 3. [CBO] FY2026 receipts forecast $5.58T vs FY2025 actual $5.235T (+6.6%). 4. [TIGTA/NPR/CBS] IRS audit revenue fell 35% in FY2025; enforcement staff down ~27%. 5. [Tax Foundation] OBBBA cut 2025 individual income taxes ~$129B; may raise 2026 refunds up to $100B. 6. [FRED] Nominal GDP up ~8% cumulative Q1 2025→Q2 2026; unemployment stable ~4.1-4.4%. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no directly comparable fiscal markets found; unrelated IPO/political markets returned as noise. - Polymarket: no relevant IRS/tax-revenue markets found (keyword matches were sports/geopolitics). - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Code-execution Fermi model (GDP growth vs. OBBBA cost only) implied P(YES)≈20-30%, conflicting with actual Treasury/CBO data showing growth — likely underweighted tariff revenue, a major real driver. - Claude/news synthesis concludes weight of evidence favors YES given tariffs and CBO forecasts. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Real YTD Treasury data (+5–18%), CBO full-year forecast (+6.6%), tariff windfall, stable macro backdrop (GDP/employment growth, no recession) — strong support; aligns with Kalshi 82%. - **No**: OBBBA-driven refund increases/withholding cuts, IRS enforcement staffing collapse (audit revenue -35%), historical tax-cut-year underperformance (~40% base rate) — moderate but outweighed by tariff revenue in observed data. # Gaps / unknowns - Exact Kalshi resolution data source/definition (FY vs CY, gross vs net, tariff inclusion) unconfirmed. - No FY2025 monthly data provided in same dataset for exact YoY monthly reconciliation. - No direct evidence on 2026 capital gains realization from 2025 asset performance. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: 82% (anchor). - Historical base rate of YoY receipt growth: ~89% overall; ~92% absent recession; ~40% in major tax-cut years. - Real 2026 YTD data (+5–18%) and CBO forecast (+6.6%) both support YES, reinforcing market price near 80-85%.

4. Forecasters Fable 5.1 + GPT-5.6 Sol · in parallel

claude-fable-5-1

55% conf

Yes	82%
No	18%

Realized FY2026 YTD Treasury receipts are running ahead of FY2025 (+17.8% through Nov 2025, +5%/$174B through Feb 2026) and CBO's baseline projects FY2026 receipts of ~$5.58T vs $5.235T (+6.6%), with a stable macro backdrop (nominal GDP up ~8%, unemployment 4.1-4.4%, no recession signal). The main risk to YES is definitional: if resolution uses IRS Data Book gross collections, tariff revenue (collected by CBP) would be excluded, and OBBBA's lower withholding tables and larger 2026 refunds plus a 27% IRS enforcement staffing cut compress the non-tariff margin—though even ex-tariffs, CBO's numbers imply modest growth and gross collections are unaffected by refunds. Historical tax-cut years show only ~40% base rate of increases, tempering confidence. I anchor on the Kalshi YES price of 82%, which appears consistent with the evidence.

gpt-5.6-sol

70% conf

Yes	83%
No	17%

The 82% Kalshi YES price is the appropriate anchor, despite thin liquidity. FY2026 receipts were already 5% ahead through February, while CBO forecasts $5.58T versus FY2025's $5.235T, and stable employment plus nominal GDP growth reduce recession-related downside. OBBBA tax cuts, larger refunds, and reduced IRS enforcement point toward No, but observed tariff revenue has so far more than offset those drags. I move slightly above Kalshi to 83%, while retaining substantial uncertainty because the resolution source, fiscal-versus-calendar-year treatment, and inclusion of CBP-collected tariffs are not documented.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5 · red-team critique

Both forecasts flag the resolution-definition ambiguity (FY vs CY, gross vs net, tariff inclusion by CBP vs IRS) but neither actually adjusts probability for it—Forecast 1 even argues it away ("gross collections are unaffected by refunds") without acknowledging that if tariffs are excluded, the entire bullish case (+17.8%, +5%, CBO's +6.6%) partially collapses since tariffs are explicitly ~7.5% of CBO's receipts figure, a material chunk of the projected growth. This is a real tail scenario (definitional NO despite economy growing) that deserves more explicit probability mass, not just narrative caveats.

Neither forecaster weighs the ticker's own name "IRS COLLECT" — which linguistically suggests IRS Data Book/agency collections rather than whole-of-government Treasury receipts, yet both anchor heavily on Treasury/CBO aggregate data that includes CBP tariffs; this is a meaningful reference-class mismatch that could push resolution toward the ~$150-500B OBBBA-drag scenario where non-tariff IRS collections could actually decline.

The historical base-rate conditioning is underused: "conditional on a major tax cut, P(increase) drops to ~40%" is a strong prior that both forecasts mention only in passing as a "tempering" factor, without reconciling why current YTD data should be trusted to fully override this base rate given it's only ~5 months of FY2026 data (through Feb) against a full-year resolution window extending to Dec 2027.

Neither analyst addresses the gap on 2025 capital-gains realizations (explicitly flagged as unknown in the brief) which could be a swing factor for 2026 filing-season individual income tax collections, especially relevant if markets pulled back in late 2025/2026 — this tail risk is omitted entirely from both rationales.

Both converge very close to the Kalshi price (82%, 83%) with little independent variance, which is reasonable given thin liquidity, but neither considers that thin liquidity (~66 contracts/day) could mean the market price hasn't fully priced in the TIGTA report (published 2026-08-26, after most of the YTD data) or the definitional risk — an information-lag argument that could justify a larger independent deviation in either direction.

Forecast 2's confidence (0.70) is notably higher than Forecast 1's (0.55) despite nearly identical probability estimates and reasoning; this inconsistency in confidence calibration isn't explained by any additional analytical rigor in Forecast 2's rationale, suggesting an unjustified confidence bump.

6. Aggregator Fable 5.1 · final calibrated forecast

79% (62% confidence)

Yes: 79% No: 21%

Realized FY2026 receipts are running ahead of FY2025 (+17.8% through Nov, +5% through Feb), CBO projects +6.6% for the full year, and the macro backdrop (nominal GDP +8%, unemployment ~4.1-4.4%) shows no recession, so the fundamental case for YES is strong and the 82% Kalshi price is a reasonable anchor. The critique's strongest point is definitional: the ticker 'IRS COLLECT' plausibly maps to IRS Data Book gross collections, which exclude CBP-collected tariffs (~7.5% of CBO's receipts), removing much of the growth cushion; however, even ex-tariff CBO figures imply modest growth (~2%+), and gross collections are not reduced by larger OBBBA refunds, so this scenario lowers but does not flip the odds. The ~40% base rate for major tax-cut years and the enforcement staffing collapse deserve some weight against only partial-year data, and thin liquidity means the market may not fully price the definitional tail. I therefore shade slightly below the market and both forecasts to 79% YES.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 173.7s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.