Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket AI-benchmark question, so the Polymarket price is the primary anchor, and related markets on other HLE thresholds (e.g., 40%, 50%, 60%) plus Kalshi AI-benchmark markets give a probability curve to triangulate. The key empirical inputs are the current HLE leaderboard values on agi.safe.ai (which reports no-tools scores), the best OpenAI score to date, the historical rate of progress on HLE during 2025, and whether tool-augmented scores count.

# Current state The resolution source (agi.safe.ai → Scale AI/CAIS HLE leaderboard) currently shows OpenAI's best confirmed score as GPT-5.4 Pro at 44.32% (no-tools, ~March 2026), trailing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (46.44%) for the overall #1 spot. Third-party aggregators (pricepertoken, llm-stats) report much higher, unverified figures for newer/rumored models (GPT-5.6 Sol ~49.5%, Claude Fable 5 55.5%, Claude Opus 5 54.9–64.7%), but these are NOT confirmed on the official CAIS/Scale leaderboard that governs resolution. # Timeline of key events - 2025-01: HLE launches; SOTA in single digits — o1 8.0%, GPT-4o 2.7%, Claude 3.5 Sonnet 4.1% (confirmed, intuitionlabs/Wikipedia). - 2025-02: OpenAI Deep Research hits 26%, more than doubling prior best (confirmed, Medium/HLE review). - 2025-08-07: GPT-5 launches (confirmed, Wikipedia); mid-2025 HLE score ~25.3% (no-tools), later reports show GPT-5 Pro ~31.6% no-tools / 42.0% with tools (reported). - 2025-08: Grok 4 (xAI) reaches 41–44.4% with tools, briefly framed as tool-assisted leader (reported). - 2025-11: Gemini 3 Pro launches at 37.5% no-tools, becomes new SOTA, surpassing GPT-5 Pro (confirmed, Google blog/press). - 2026-03-05: GPT-5.4 Pro scores 44.32% no-tools, OpenAI's current official-leaderboard best, #2 overall behind Gemini 3.1 Pro at 46.44% (reported, Wikipedia/Scale leaderboard). - 2026-04: GPT-5.5 released; strong on FrontierMath/Terminal-Bench but no confirmed HLE score topping rivals (reported). - 2026-07: GPT-5.6 "Sol" reported at ~49.5% HLE per third-party tracker pricepertoken (reported, low-confidence source). - 2026-08: Third-party trackers show Claude Fable 5 (55.5%) and Claude Opus 5 (54.9–64.7%) as new overall leaders; commentators flag conflict-of-interest concerns re: Meta Muse Spark benchmark claims (rumored/reported, non-official sources). - 2026-08-01: OpenAI unveils "Astra" as its "next major model," undecided whether it will be branded GPT-6 or GPT-5.7; no HLE score published for it (confirmed announcement, no benchmark data). # Event Will any OpenAI model reach ≥55% HLE accuracy on the official agi.safe.ai (Scale AI/CAIS) leaderboard by Dec 31, 2026? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct price was returned in research (tool output missing/empty). Best available cross-market anchor: **Polymarket price 50.5% YES** (up +3% over 7d, +5.5% over 30d; range 29.5–65% over 39 days; volume ~$20.5k) — treat as the closest available consensus proxy pending direct Kalshi confirmation. # Sub-question answers 1. **Current highest OpenAI HLE score on official leaderboard**: GPT-5.4 Pro at 44.32% (no-tools), as of ~March 2026 per Wikipedia's tracking of the Scale AI leaderboard [claude_news]. 2. **SOTA across labs / no-tools vs tools**: Official leaderboard is no-tools; Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview leads at 46.44%, ahead of GPT-5.4 Pro (44.32%) [claude_news]. Tool-augmented scores run higher (GPT-5 Pro 42% with tools, Grok 4 Heavy 44.4%) but the official board reports no-tools figures. 3. **2025 rate of improvement**: SOTA rose from ~8-9% (Jan 2025, o1) to ~37.5% (Nov 2025, Gemini 3 Pro no-tools) to ~44-46% (Mar 2026) — roughly 2.4-2.8 points/month sustained, per code_execution trend fit [code_execution]. 4. **Leaderboard update cadence**: Actively updated; new frontier releases (GPT-5.4, GPT-5.5, GPT-5.6, Gemini 3.1) appear within weeks-to-months of launch, per Wikipedia/Scale tracking [claude_news]. 5. **2026 OpenAI roadmap**: GPT-5.5 (Apr 2026, strong on other benchmarks, no clear HLE leadership); GPT-5.6 "Sol" (Jul 2026, ~49.5% per third-party, unconfirmed officially); "Astra" announced Aug 2026 as next major model, undecided GPT-6 vs GPT-5.7 branding, no HLE score disclosed [claude_news]. 6. **Cross-market implied odds**: Polymarket prices this exact contract at 50.5% YES, trending up. No Kalshi-specific data or other threshold markets (40/50/60/70%) were found in research [polymarket_direct, kalshi_related]. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [claude_news/Wikipedia] Official leaderboard best OpenAI score: GPT-5.4 Pro, 44.32% no-tools (~Mar 2026), ~10.7pts below threshold. 2. [claude_news] Overall official-leaderboard leader is Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 46.44%, not OpenAI. 3. [claude_news] Third-party (non-official) trackers report OpenAI's newest model (GPT-5.6 Sol) at ~49.5% and rival models (Claude Fable 5, Claude Opus 5) at 54.9–64.7% by Aug 2026 — unverified against the resolution source. 4. [Wikipedia/OpenAI] No GPT-6 confirmed as of Aug 2026; "Astra" announced as next major model with no published HLE score. 5. [code_execution] Historical monthly HLE gains ~2.4-2.8 pts/month across 2025-early 2026 (no-tools). # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No direct HLE market found besides this ticker itself; adjacent OpenAI markets (IPO race, US stake) show no HLE-relevant signal. - Polymarket: This exact market prices 50.5% YES, uptrending (+5.5% 30d), moderate volume ($20.5k) — direct proxy since same question. - Sportsbook implied: None available. # Analyst opinions and speculation - code_execution trend-extrapolation model projects Dec-2026 no-tools SOTA of 52-72% depending on deceleration assumption, implying P(≥55%)≈82-95% for "best available" score — but this doesn't isolate OpenAI-specific attainment, and assumes continued linear/logistic growth that official data (GPT-5.4→GPT-5.5→5.6 OpenAI gains) shows may be slowing relative to Google/Anthropic. - claude_news synthesis is more skeptical: OpenAI trails the frontrunner (Anthropic/Google) on official numbers and would need to close a real gap in the remaining months of 2026. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Rapid 2025 growth trajectory (8%→44% in ~14 months); OpenAI has monthly release cadence (5.4→5.5→5.6→Astra) with each step gaining ground; extrapolation models lean toward eventual ≥55% crossing somewhere in the ecosystem by year-end. - **No**: OpenAI's *own* official-leaderboard best (44.32%) currently trails the overall leader; unverified third-party scores near/above 55% belong to Anthropic (Claude Fable 5/Opus 5), not OpenAI; gap to close for OpenAI specifically is ~10+ points in a market where growth appears to be slowing (5.4%→5.5%→5.6% releases yielding smaller absolute HLE gains); no GPT-6/Astra HLE score exists yet. # Gaps / unknowns - No genuine Kalshi YES price was retrieved for this ticker — brief anchors on Polymarket (50.5%) as substitute; must confirm actual Kalshi price before finalizing. - Third-party tracker figures (pricepertoken, llm-stats) conflict with each other (54.9% vs 64.7% for same model) and aren't validated against the actual agi.safe.ai/Scale leaderboard — high uncertainty on true current OpenAI SOTA post-March 2026. - No confirmed HLE score exists yet for Astra/potential GPT-6, the biggest wildcard for H2 2026. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price (proxy anchor): 50.5%, range 29.5-65% over past ~39 days, trending up. - Precedent: HLE SOTA rose from single digits to ~44-46% in ~14 months (Jan 2025-Mar 2026); reaching 55%+ specifically for OpenAI requires either accelerating past recent deceleration or a major Astra/GPT-6 leap within remaining 2026 window.

1. Both forecasts anchor heavily on Polymarket's 50.5%, but that market itself may be poorly calibrated given thin volume (~$20.5k) and a wide 39-day range (29.5–65%), so treating it as a strong consensus anchor rather than a noisy, low-liquidity proxy risks over-reliance on an unreliable signal. 2. Neither forecast adequately grapples with the "official leaderboard vs. third-party tracker" distinction: the brief explicitly notes GPT-5.6 Sol's ~49.5% is unconfirmed on agi.safe.ai and that resolution requires the *official* board to post ≥55%, yet both nudge probabilities up based on unverified numbers as if they were near-certain to be ratified. 3. Both largely ignore the deceleration signal in the evidence — HLE gains for OpenAI specifically appear to be slowing (5.4→5.5→5.6 yielding diminishing absolute gains) even as the brief's own trend-extrapolation model (52-72%) conflates "best available score across all labs" with "OpenAI's specific score," which the brief explicitly flags as a flaw neither forecaster corrects for. 4. Neither forecast considers the branding/timing risk with Astra: it's "undecided whether it will be branded GPT-6 or GPT-5.7" as of Aug 2026 with "no HLE score published," meaning there's a real chance Astra doesn't launch or get benchmarked before the Dec 31, 2026 close, which should pull probability toward No rather than treating it as a likely catalyst. 5. Both forecasts converge to near-identical probabilities (0.56/0.44 and 0.52/0.48) despite ostensibly independent reasoning, suggesting anchoring bias on the same Polymarket number rather than genuinely stress-testing the OpenAI-specific gap (currently trailing the leader by 2+ points and needing +10.7 points with no confirmed pathway). 6. Neither forecaster addresses the asymmetry that even if Anthropic/Google cross 55% first, this is irrelevant to resolution (question is OpenAI-specific), yet the third-party Claude Fable 5/Opus 5 scores of 54.9–64.7% are used as generic "competitive pressure" evidence for OpenAI's YES case rather than being properly discounted as evidence for a rival, not OpenAI.

47% (50% confidence)

Yes: 47% No: 53%

The governing agi.safe.ai/Scale board shows OpenAI's confirmed best at 44.32% (GPT-5.4 Pro, Mar 2026), ~10.7 points short, and OpenAI is not even the overall leader (Gemini 3.1 Pro, 46.44%). The bullish case rests on unverified third-party figures (GPT-5.6 'Sol' ~49.5%) and on Astra, which as of Aug 2026 has no branding decision, no release, and no published HLE score — a genuine catalyst but far from assured to be benchmarked on the official board before Dec 31. The 55%+ scores circulating belong to Anthropic models, which is evidence of ecosystem progress but not of OpenAI-specific attainment, and OpenAI's own increment pace (44.3→~49.5 over four months, ~1.3 pts/mo) implies roughly landing near, not comfortably above, 55% by year-end. Adding official-verification/lag friction, I sit slightly below the noisy, thin-volume Polymarket proxy of 50.5% rather than above it, unlike both forecasters.

Total pipeline time: 186.8s