Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related claude_news congress_bills gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a long-horizon political market on whether the sitting President (Trump) is impeached by the House before the end of the current term. The dominant drivers are (a) partisan control of the House after the 2026 midterms, since impeachment requires only a simple House majority, and (b) whether Democratic leadership would actually bring articles to a floor vote. The Kalshi price is the primary anchor, cross-checked against Polymarket and historical base rates (Trump was impeached twice in a Republican-era House minority scenario, so control matters enormously).

# Current state No new impeachment of Trump has occurred in his second term; the House is GOP-controlled and has repeatedly tabled backbench Democrat Al Green's impeachment resolutions by wide margins. The Kalshi contract (65% YES) is pricing in an expectation that a future Democratic House majority (2026 midterms, seated Jan 2027) would pursue and pass impeachment articles before Jan 20, 2029 — a distinct, higher bar than "impeachment efforts introduced" or "polling favorability." # Timeline of key events - 2025-05-15 (confirmed): Rep. Al Green files H.Res. 415 (impeachment articles vs. Trump), one of several such filings in 2025. - 2025-06-24 (confirmed): House votes to table Green's impeachment motion (H.Res. 537), 344–79 (Clerk vote 175) — overwhelming rejection including many Democrats. - 2025-12-11 (confirmed): House votes to table Green's H.Res. 939, 237–140 with 47 Present — a narrower margin than June, signaling erosion of the tabling coalition but still comfortably defeated. - 2026-04 (confirmed/reported): Jeffries states impeachment "of course not" a top priority if Democrats retake the House; focus is cost-of-living messaging (The Hill). - 2026-08-24 (confirmed): Green files fifth impeachment resolution, H.Res. 1486, citing ICE/CBP abuses (algreen.house.gov, Congress.gov); referred to Judiciary Committee, no floor vote yet. - 2026-08-26 (reported): Jeffries softens stance slightly — "we haven't ruled anything in and we haven't ruled anything out" (Axios), tying any action to "moments of accountability." - 2026-08-23/24 (rumored): Reports of secret Kushner–Jeffries meetings amid Trumpworld "bracing" for possible GOP midterm defeat (Raw Story, IBTimes, Townhall) — unconfirmed strategic speculation, not policy signal. # Event Will the President (Trump) be impeached by the House before Jan 20, 2029? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 current YES price: **65%**. 7-day change +2pp, 30-day change +1pp, range 60–68% over 90 days, avg daily volume ~1,691 contracts — a liquid, moderately trending-up market. Notably, this is far above the related Kalshi market "Trump impeached AND removed" (14%, -4pp/30d), reflecting that removal (Senate conviction) is priced much lower than House impeachment alone. # Sub-question answers 1. **Current Kalshi price/trend** — 65% YES, up modestly (+1–2pp) over past week/month, range 60-68% over 90 days; steady volume ~1,700/day. [kalshi_direct] 2. **Dem House majority odds (2026)** — No direct Kalshi/Polymarket line found; related market "Democratic Sweep" (House+Senate+Presidency 2028) trades at 49%. Jeffries claims Dems are "only three seats short" and will "definitely" win the House [Yahoo/claude_news]. Code-execution model assumes ~55-75% range for Dem House. 3. **Articles introduced / floor votes** — Yes: Al Green has filed 5 impeachment resolutions (2017, 2019, 3x in 2025-26, latest Aug 2026 H.Res.1486). Two recorded tabling votes: June 2025 (344-79, tabled easily) and Dec 2025 (237-140-47P, narrower). [congress_bills, claude_news, clerk.house.gov] 4. **Historical base rate** — Only 2 of 45 presidents impeached historically (Andrew Johnson pre-1900, Clinton, Trump twice) — roughly 3-in-45 presidencies (~7%), but conditional on opposition control of House, rate rises sharply (Clinton 1998, Trump 2019 both under opposition House). Code model estimates ~26.7% base rate given current dynamics (mean of Monte Carlo simulation). 5. **Jeffries' stance** — Explicitly downplayed impeachment as a priority (April 2026: "not a top priority," focus on affordability) but later hedged ("haven't ruled anything in/out," Aug 2026), tying action to future "accountability moments." No firm commitment either way. [thehill.com, axios.com] 6. **Active scandals/predicates** — ICE/CBP abuse and civilian deaths (Aug 2026 Green articles); Iran war-powers vote flagged as a potential flashpoint if Trump defies Congress. No emoluments-specific renewed effort found. [algreen.house.gov, modeldiplomat.com] 7. **Resolution scope** — Contract description says "impeached" (House vote only, not conviction/removal); separate Kalshi market exists for "impeached AND removed" (14%), confirming this market only requires House passage. Language covers "the President" generically through Jan 2029, likely covering Trump only barring succession. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Kalshi] YES=65%, uptrending slightly, 90-day range 60-68%. 2. [Kalshi related] "Impeached AND removed" market at just 14%, down 4pp/30d — removal seen as much less likely than House impeachment. 3. [congress.gov/clerk] Two tabling votes: June 2025 (344-79) and Dec 2025 (237-140-47P) — margin narrowing. 4. [Wikipedia] Trump previously impeached twice in first term (2019, 2021); Democrats hold historical precedent of using House majority to impeach. 5. [claude_news/Yahoo] Jeffries: Dems "only three seats short" of House majority, expresses confidence in 2026 win. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXTRUMPREMOVE (removal) 14%, KXIMPEACHCABINET 0.6%, KXNEXTSPEAKER-HJEF (Jeffries as Speaker) 86% — implies market strongly expects Dem House takeover. - Polymarket: "Trump out as President by Aug 31 2026" priced at 0.1% YES — irrelevant timeframe/mechanism (near-term removal), not comparable to impeachment-only question. - Sportsbook implied: none found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Model Diplomat commentary: Iran war-powers defiance could be a hardening trigger for impeachment push. - Raw Story/IBTimes/Townhall (speculative): "Trumpworld" allegedly bracing for GOP midterm loss and secret Kushner-Jeffries talks — unconfirmed, may reflect anticipatory anxiety rather than fact. - Code-execution Monte Carlo: central estimate ~26.7% (90% CI 17.5–37%), driven almost entirely by P(Dem House 2027) × P(pass floor | Dem majority ~25-55%). # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (65% Kalshi)**: Supported by strong Dem midterm favorability (Jeffries "definitely" win), narrowing tabling votes (237-140 vs 344-79), persistent scandal predicates (ICE/CBP, potential Iran war-powers). Opposed by Jeffries' explicit deprioritization of impeachment and lack of any indication leadership would whip votes for it even with majority; base-rate models cluster around 20-35%, well below market's 65%. - **No (implied 35%)**: Supported by leadership caution, historical difficulty of impeachment even with unified opposition control (Clinton impeached only via GOP House with independent counsel referral, not spontaneous), and code-model base rate is far below current market price. # Gaps / unknowns - No direct market/poll data quantifying P(Dem House 2027) — only qualitative claims and one adjacent Kalshi sweep market (49%) covering a different combined outcome. - No confirmation whether Jeffries or caucus leadership has committed to whip votes for impeachment post-election. - Uncertain whether new predicate events (Iran strikes, ICE fallout) will escalate before 2027 sufficient to shift Democratic strategy. - GDELT news tool partially failed (timeouts), limiting fresh headline coverage. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price (anchor): **65%** - Related Kalshi "impeached AND removed": 14% — shows market differentiates House vs. Senate action. - Historical precedent: 2 of last ~6 presidents facing opposition-controlled House (1998, 2019) were impeached — supports elevated conditional probability, but code-model base rate (~27%) suggests current 65% may be overpriced relative to mechanics-only estimate.

1. Both forecasters split the difference between the 65% Kalshi anchor and the ~27% mechanics-based Monte Carlo without rigorously reconciling why the two diverge so sharply — neither explicitly interrogates whether the Kalshi price itself might be inflated by "enthusiasm bias" among partisan retail traders (a well-documented phenomenon on political prediction markets), which would justify weighting the model-based estimate more heavily rather than anchoring near the midpoint. 2. Neither forecast adequately incorporates the compounding/conjunctive nature of the outcome: it requires (a) Dem House majority AND (b) leadership willingness to schedule a floor vote AND (c) sufficient caucus votes to pass articles — treating this as a single "erosion of tabling coalition" trend obscures that P(Dem majority)×P(leadership schedules vote | majority)×P(passes | scheduled) could easily multiply down well below 50% even if each individual component seems plausible. 3. Both cite the narrowing tabling vote (344-79 → 237-140-47P) as evidence of "eroding" opposition to impeachment, but neither notes the 47 "Present" votes could reflect strategic abstention (avoiding a politically costly vote before midterms) rather than genuine softening on impeachment merits — this alternative explanation would weaken the "coalition eroding" narrative both forecasts lean on. 4. The 2019 precedent (impeachment within 11 months of Dem majority) is cited by Forecast 1 as supportive, but that impeachment followed a discrete triggering scandal (Ukraine call/whistleblower) — neither forecast addresses whether a comparable single "smoking gun" predicate is likely to emerge by 2027, versus the current diffuse set of grievances (ICE/CBP, Iran war-powers) which may not coalesce as cleanly. 5. Neither forecaster addresses the scenario where Democrats retake the House but deliberately choose NOT to impeach for strategic reasons (e.g., fear of 2028 backlash, per Jeffries' affordability-first messaging) even if they have the votes — this "elect not to act despite capability" pathway is a distinct failure mode from "don't get the majority" and deserves separate probability weight, especially given explicit leadership statements deprioritizing it. 6. Both treat the Kalshi 65% as a legitimate anchor to discount modestly (to 56-60%), but neither seriously entertains that the market could be systematically mispriced high due to lower liquidity/informed trading relative to more mechanically-grounded models — given the stated base rate analysis and Monte Carlo CI (17.5-37%) sits entirely below both forecasts' final answers, more skepticism toward the anchor seems warranted rather than converging near 56-60%.

54% (54% confidence)

Yes: 54% No: 46%

The contract requires only House passage, and the path is essentially conjunctive: P(Dem House seated Jan 2027, ~70-80% given the 86% Jeffries-Speaker market) × P(leadership schedules and passes articles before Jan 2029). The critique's strongest points hold: Jeffries has explicitly deprioritized impeachment, the 47 'Present' votes plausibly reflect pre-midterm strategic abstention rather than genuine conversion, and the 2019 precedent hinged on a discrete smoking-gun trigger (Ukraine) that may not recur cleanly from diffuse ICE/war-powers grievances. That said, the mechanics-only Monte Carlo (~27%) likely understates the conditional rate given Trump's unique record of two prior impeachments, two full years of runway, and intense base pressure that overwhelmed Pelosi's similar caution in 2019 — so a conditional pass rate near 55-60% is reasonable, implying ~45%. Balancing the liquid 65% market anchor (which may carry partisan enthusiasm bias on this specific contract) against that structural estimate, I settle modestly below both forecasters at 54%.

Total pipeline time: 196.0s