Scan: GDP growth in 2035? — 1.6% to 2.0%

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-22	13%	14%	62%
2026-07-31	10%	9%	50%

1. Planner Opus 5

Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related fred code_execution claude_news polymarket_related

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Kalshi YES price for KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.8 and what do the other buckets in the KXGDPYEAR-35 ladder imply about the market's full probability distribution for 2035 real GDP growth?
Historically, what fraction of calendar years since 1950 (and since 1990) had US annual real GDP growth between 1.6% and 2.0%, i.e. the unconditional base rate for this 0.4pp bin?
What is the standard deviation / dispersion of annual US real GDP growth, and given a central forecast near 1.8%, what probability mass falls in a 0.4pp-wide bin around it?
What are CBO's long-term economic projections and the Fed SEP longer-run real GDP growth estimate for the mid-2030s, and where do they place the central expectation for 2035?
How exactly does Kalshi define/resolve 'real GDP growth' for the year (annual average vs Q4/Q4, which BEA vintage), and does that change the bucket probability?
Does Polymarket or another venue price any comparable long-horizon US GDP growth market that disagrees with Kalshi?

Planner reasoning

This is a very long-horizon macro question (2035 annual US real GDP growth in a 0.4pp-wide bucket around the CBO's long-run trend of ~1.8%). The key inputs are the Kalshi market's own price and the full bucket ladder for KXGDPYEAR-35, the historical base rate of annual real GDP growth landing in 1.6-2.0%, and official long-run projections (CBO/Fed SEP longer-run) that anchor the central tendency. Since no near-term news can move a 2035 outcome, the work is mostly base-rate and distribution math.

2. Research

tool	status	time	items	summary
kalshi_direct	OK	0.2s	1	## This Market's Kalshi Data 1.6% to 2.0% (KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.8) - Current price (probability): 14.00% - 7-day price change: +1.00% - 30-day price change: +6.00% - Average daily volume: 983 contracts - Price range: 8.00% - 15.00% - Data points: 15 days
kalshi_related	OK	4.2s	2	2 related markets / summaries. series KXGDPYEAR: 0 markets (skipped 100 no-signal) \| series KXGDP: 0 markets (skipped 36 no-signal) \| keyword 'GDP growth 2035': ok \| keyword 'GDP growth year': ok
fred	OK	7.1s	5	Fetched 5 FRED series (lookback=3650d) (via search 'real gross domestic product annual percent change').
code_execution	OK	34.5s	0	US Real GDP Growth (%, annual avg, BEA NIPA Table 1.1.1) — hardcoded 1948‑2024 series analysis - Full sample (1948‑2024, n=77): mean = 3.13%, sd = 2.33 pp; only 7.8% of years (6/77) fell in the narrow [1.6%, 2.0%] band — post‑war growth was historically much higher/more volatile than to
claude_news	OK	28.3s	12	## Key Findings CBO Long-Term Projections (most recent: Feb 2026 "Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036") - Real GDP growth slows to 1.8 percent from 2027 on, reflecting several factors that roughly offset each other in CBO's newest baseline — this directly covers 2035. Source: https://ww
polymarket_related	OK	4.0s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'GDP growth': 0 markets \| keyword 'US GDP': 0 markets \| keyword 'recession': 0 markets

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5, 6150 chars

# Event Kalshi market KXGDPYEAR-35-B1.8: resolves YES if US real GDP growth in 2035 falls in the 1.6%–2.0% bucket. # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (2035 real GDP growth 1.6%–2.0%) - No (growth outside that band) # Kalshi market anchor **Current YES price: 14¢** (probability 14%). 7-day change: +1pt; 30-day change: +6pt (up from 8% a month ago to 15% peak, now 14%). Avg daily volume ~983 contracts — decent liquidity for a decade-out niche market. Trend is upward, suggesting market is converging toward CBO/Fed consensus view that ~1.8% is the most likely single point estimate. [kalshi_direct] # Sub-question answers 1. **Kalshi YES price / ladder** — B1.8 bucket priced at 14%. Adjacent series data show KXGDPYEAR-36-B2.8 (2036, 2.6–3.0% bucket) at 10%, implying the ladder spreads probability across multiple buckets with no single bucket dominating; full distribution not directly visible but 14% for the CBO/Fed consensus-centered bucket is plausible if unremarkable. [kalshi_related] 2. **Historical base rate** — 1948–2024 full sample: 7.8% of years in band; 1990–2024: 17.1%; 2000–2024 (most relevant): 20.0% (5/25 years). [code_execution] 3. **Dispersion around 1.8% central forecast** — Historical sd (2000-2024) ≈1.76pp. Normal-model estimates centered at 1.8%: sd=1.5→10.6%, sd=2.0→8.0%, sd=2.5→6.4%. Empirical base rate (~20%) is 2-3x higher than parametric-normal estimates, implying realized growth clusters more tightly than a symmetric normal assumption suggests. [code_execution] 4. **CBO/Fed projections for 2035** — CBO's Feb 2026 baseline: growth "slows to 1.8%... from 2027 on," directly covering 2035; prior Jan 2025 baseline: "averages roughly 1.8% a year from 2027 to 2035." Fed SEP longer-run median stable at 1.8% through Dec 2025. AI productivity boost (~0.1pp/yr per CBO) offsets weaker immigration-driven labor growth, keeping 1.8% central estimate intact. [claude_news/CBO/Fed] 5. **Resolution definition (annual avg vs Q4/Q4, BEA vintage)** — Not specified in rules text; no research found clarifying which measure/vintage Kalshi uses. This is a genuine gap — could matter since Q4/Q4 growth has historically higher variance than annual-average growth. 6. **Polymarket/other venues** — No comparable long-horizon US GDP growth market found; scan of 100 active Polymarket markets returned zero matches for GDP/recession keywords. [polymarket_related] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [claude_news/CBO] CBO Feb 2026 and Jan 2025 baselines both project ~1.8% average real GDP growth for the mid-2030s including 2035. 2. [claude_news/Fed] Fed SEP longer-run real GDP growth median stable at 1.8% across March–Dec 2025 releases. 3. [code_execution] 2000-2024 empirical base rate for a year landing in [1.6%,2.0%] is 20% (5/25 years); sd of annual growth ≈1.76-2.33pp depending on sample window. 4. [kalshi_direct] Current YES price 14%, up 6pts over 30 days, avg volume 983 contracts. 5. [fred] Recent realized annual growth rates (A191RL1A225NBEA): 2023=2.9%, 2024=2.8%, 2025=2.1% — all above the 1.6-2.0% band recently, though Q-over-Q data (A191RO1Q156NBEA) show 2025 quarters near 2.0-2.4%. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXGDPYEAR-36-B2.8 (2036, 2.6-3.0% band) priced at 10%; KXNOMGDPGROWTH nominal-growth markets (Above 5%/6% thresholds) priced 36-37%, rising sharply (+9pt in 7 days) — suggests some repricing of nominal growth/inflation expectations upward, indirectly relevant to real growth path. - Polymarket: No comparable market exists. - Sportsbook implied: N/A (not applicable to economic data). # Analyst opinions and speculation - CBO and Fed consensus strongly converge on ~1.8% as central estimate for 2035 growth — this is the strongest structural anchor and sits at the midpoint of the Yes band. - White House has floated 3.0% annual growth (WSJ), far above CBO/Fed — an outlier, low-credibility view given no methodological backing cited, more political messaging than a base-rate-consistent forecast. - Penn Wharton estimates AI cumulative level effect of +1.5% GDP by 2035 (not annual growth rate) — modest impact, unlikely to push single-year 2035 growth materially outside the 1.6-2.0% band on its own. - code_execution synthesis: fair value likely 10-15%, bracketing the current 14% Kalshi price — market appears reasonably calibrated, perhaps slightly rich vs. normal-model estimates but conservative vs. empirical 20% recency base rate. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (1.6-2.0%)**: Supported by CBO/Fed 1.8% central point estimate sitting inside band; supported by 2000-2024 empirical base rate (20%) implying decent chance any given year lands here. Opposed by: narrow 0.4pp width mechanically caps probability under any dispersion model (6-11% normal-model range); recent actual years (2023-2025) have all printed above 2.0%, showing realized growth often overshoots trend. - **No**: Supported by inherent difficulty of any single year landing in a narrow band a decade out — GDP growth is volatile (sd 1.5-2.3pp) and single-year outcomes frequently fall outside a tight 0.4pp target even when centered correctly; supported by recent 3 years all >2.0%. Base case: No is more likely (~85-86%) simply due to band narrowness vs. distribution width. # Gaps / unknowns - Exact Kalshi resolution methodology (annual-average vs Q4/Q4 BEA measure, data vintage) not confirmed — could shift effective volatility/base rate. - No visibility into full KXGDPYEAR-35 ladder (all buckets) to cross-check implied total probability sums to ~100%. - No independent forecaster (e.g., Blue Chip, IMF) point estimates gathered for 2035 specifically beyond CBO/Fed. - 2035 is 9+ years out — no market/analyst has published a de novo probabilistic distribution specific to that year beyond trend extrapolation. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: **14%** (primary anchor, uptrending). - 2000-2024 empirical base rate for band: ~20%. - Full-sample (1948-2024) base rate: ~8%. - Normal-model estimates centered at 1.8% (CBO/Fed consensus): 6-11% depending on assumed sd. - Blended "fair value" estimate from research: ~10-15%, closely bracketing current Kalshi price.

4. Forecasters Opus 5 + GPT-5.6 Sol, in parallel

claude-opus-5

62% conf

Yes	14%
No	86%

The 1.6–2.0% band is centered exactly on the CBO/Fed consensus long-run estimate of 1.8% for 2035, which is the strongest structural anchor, but the band is only 0.4pp wide against an annual-growth standard deviation of ~1.5–2.3pp. Parametric normal models centered at 1.8% imply only 6–11%, while the 2000–2024 empirical base rate of landing in this band is ~20%; blended fair value is ~10–15%. Recent prints (2023: 2.9%, 2024: 2.8%, 2025: 2.1%) all sit above the band, and no unique information contradicts the market. The Kalshi YES price of 14¢ (up 6pts in 30 days on decent volume) sits squarely inside the fair-value range, so I anchor there.

gpt-5.6-sol

62% conf

Yes	14%
No	86%

The 14% Kalshi YES price is the strongest anchor and falls within the brief's estimated 10%–15% fair-value range. CBO and Fed projections center 2035 growth at 1.8%, supporting Yes, while the 2000–2024 empirical frequency of 20% suggests meaningful clustering in the band. However, the band is only 0.4 percentage points wide, and dispersion-based models assign it just 6%–11%, strongly favoring No despite the centered forecast. Uncertainty about the resolution measure and the decade-long horizon does not justify moving materially from the market consensus.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5

Both forecasts converge identically on 14% with near-identical reasoning, essentially just restating the brief's blended estimate rather than independently stress-testing it—this suggests herding on the Kalshi anchor rather than genuine independent analysis, and neither explores why they didn't lean toward the empirical 20% base rate given CBO/Fed's strong point-estimate confidence.

Neither forecast addresses the resolution-definition gap (sub-question 5: annual avg vs Q4/Q4, BEA vintage) with any probabilistic adjustment—if Q4/Q4 is used, variance is higher, mechanically favoring No more strongly, yet both simply treat this as a non-issue rather than a source of tail risk or asymmetric adjustment.

Both ignore the recency signal buried in the evidence: 2023-2025 all printed above 2.0% (2.9%, 2.8%, 2.1%), suggesting a possible regime of structurally higher realized growth than the 1.8% CBO trend-line assumes, which should arguably pull the distribution's mode rightward and reduce Yes probability below 14%, not just be footnoted.

Neither forecast grapples with the 9-year forecasting horizon uncertainty explicitly—no analyst has produced a de novo 2035-specific distribution, and CBO/Fed "1.8%" is a baseline projection method inherited from trend extrapolation, not a probabilistic forecast with quantified confidence intervals for a single year, so treating it as a hard anchor may overstate certainty.

The cross-market signal that nominal GDP growth markets (KXNOMGDPGROWTH) are repricing sharply upward (+9pt in 7 days, now 36-37% for Above 5%/6%) is not incorporated at all—if nominal growth expectations are rising (likely inflation-driven but possibly real-growth-driven too), this could be a leading indicator worth a small downward adjustment to Yes that neither forecaster discusses.

Both forecasts stop at reciting the 10-15% "blended fair value" without independently deriving or challenging it—for instance, neither notes that the parametric normal-model range (6-11%) and empirical base rate (20%) disagree by nearly 2x, and simply splitting the difference at 14% (matching the market) may be an anchoring bias rather than a resolved analytical judgment.

6. Aggregator Opus 5

13% (62% confidence)

Yes: 13% No: 87%

The 1.6–2.0% band is centered exactly on the CBO/Fed 1.8% consensus, but it is only 0.4pp wide against annual real GDP growth dispersion of ~1.5–2.3pp, so parametric models give 6–11% while the 2000–2024 empirical frequency gives ~20%; the blended 10–15% range brackets the 14¢ market price. The critique's strongest points — potential Q4/Q4 resolution (higher variance), recent prints all above 2.0% (2023–2025), and rising nominal-growth pricing — are mildly asymmetric toward No, while the overstated precision of a decade-out trend-extrapolated baseline argues against treating 1.8% as a hard anchor. I therefore stay close to the market anchor but shade slightly below it to 13%, which remains well inside the fair-value band. No is heavily favored purely on band-narrowness mechanics.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 104.6s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.