Scan: No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-21	92%	92%	75%
2026-08-14	86%	90%	67%

1. Planner Opus 5

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news claude_news fred gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Polymarket YES price (and its recent trajectory) for 'no change' at the September 2026 BoE meeting?
What is the Bank Rate level as of mid-2026, and what did the BoE decide at its most recent meetings (Feb/Mar/May/Jun/Aug 2026)?
What do OIS/market-implied UK rate expectations imply for a cut/hold at the September 17, 2026 meeting?
What is the historical base rate of 'no change' at BoE MPC meetings, and specifically at non-Monetary Policy Report (non-forecast-round) meetings such as September?
What are the latest UK CPI, wage growth, and unemployment readings, and are they trending in a direction that would force a September move?
Does Kalshi (or other venues) have a comparable BoE September 2026 market, and does its price disagree with Polymarket?

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket question on whether the BoE holds Bank Rate at its September 2026 MPC meeting. The primary anchor is the Polymarket price; secondary anchors are Kalshi's central-bank decision series and market pricing/OIS expectations for UK rates. Key drivers are UK inflation/labour data, the BoE's recent cut cadence (quarterly cuts pattern), and whether September is a 'live' meeting (historically the BoE has favoured acting at MPR meetings in Feb/May/Aug/Nov).

2. Research

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.3s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? - Current price (probability): 92.50% - 7-day price change: -0.50% - 30-day price change: +7.00% - Total volume: $101,560 (USD notional) - Price range: 51.50% - 95.50% - Data points: 65
polymarket_related	OK	2.1s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'Bank of England': 0 markets \| keyword 'Bank Rate': 0 markets \| keyword 'BoE interest rate': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	2.0s	2	2 related markets / summaries. series KXCBDECISION: 0 markets (skipped 0 no-signal) \| series KXBOE: 0 markets (skipped 0 no-signal) \| keyword 'Bank of England': ok \| keyword 'bank rate': ok
claude_news	OK	23.5s	17	Bank of England 2026 MPC meeting history & Bank Rate path - Bank Rate has held at 3.75% through every 2026 meeting so far (Feb, March, April, June, July), after being cut to that level in December 2025: that followed the previous cut in December 2025, when Bank Rate was reduced to 3.75% .
claude_news	OK	29.2s	15	## Key findings on UK macro data and BoE rate outlook (September 2026) Inflation (CPI/CPIH) - The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% in the 12 months to July 2026, up from 2.6% the previous month. ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflat
fred	OK	2.0s	0	no series_ids supplied and search_text resolved nothing
gdelt_news	OK	90.6s	20	GDELT: 20 articles across 3 queries (lookback=45d). 'Bank of England September 2026 rate decision': error HTTPSConnectionPool(host='api.gdeltproject.org', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=30) \| 'MPC vote Bank Rate cut 2026': 10 hits \| 'UK interest rate expectations 2026': 10 hits
wikipedia	OK	2.0s	2	Fetched 2 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	53.4s	0	## Key Findings - Full sample (all 45 MPC meetings, Feb 2021–Aug 2026 constructed series): 23 "no change" (hold) decisions → base rate ≈ 51.1%. This period is dominated by the 2022-23 hiking cycle, which pulls the all-meeting hold rate down. - **Non-MPR meetings only (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec — the

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet 5, 6347 chars

# Current state Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% since the December 2025 cut, through five consecutive 2026 meetings (Feb–Jul), with MPC dissent shifting from dovish (wanting cuts) early in the year to hawkish (wanting hikes) by mid-2026 amid Middle East-driven energy inflation. The September 17, 2026 decision is not yet made; markets and economists heavily favor another hold, but this is a forecast, not yet a resolved fact. # Timeline of key events - 2025-12: Bank Rate cut to 3.75% (confirmed, BoE). - 2026-02-04: Held at 3.75%, MPC voted 5–4 (4 wanted a cut to 3.5%) — dovish dissent (confirmed, BoE). - 2026-03: Held at 3.75%, unanimous vote; Middle East conflict cited as raising energy/commodity prices (confirmed, BoE). - 2026-04: Held at 3.75%, MPC voted 8–1 (1 wanted a hike to 4%) — dissent flips hawkish (confirmed, BoE). - 2026-06: Held at 3.75%, MPC voted 7–2 (2 wanted a hike); OIS curve briefly eased on a Middle East peace-deal announcement (confirmed, BoE). - 2026-07-30: Held at 3.75%, MPC voted 6–3 (3 wanted a hike to 4%) — dubbed a "hawkish hold" by analysts; Bailey did not signal imminent hike (confirmed, BoE/HOA). - 2026-08 (data for July): CPI rose to 2.9% (from 2.6%), first reacceleration since March 2026; services CPI 3.4% (down from 3.6% in June); wage growth 3.5% regular/4.1% total; unemployment rose to 5.0% (confirmed, ONS). - 2026-08-13/18: Economist survey (56/64, ~90%) expects hold through year-end; OIS pricing (as of 8/17) implies ~72–76% probability of hold at Sept 17 meeting, with residual skew toward a hike (+7bp implied move) (reported, HOA/centralbank.watch/bluegamma.io). - 2026-09-17: Scheduled MPC decision (pending — not yet occurred). # Event Will the Bank of England leave Bank Rate unchanged at its September 17, 2026 MPC meeting (relative to the pre-meeting level)? # Outcomes to forecast Yes (no change) / No (any change, up or down) # Kalshi market anchor No kalshi_direct data was returned for this ticker; the market data available under this exact ticker is from **Polymarket**: current YES ("No change") price = **92.5%**, 7-day change –0.5%, 30-day change +7.0% (price range 51.5–95.5% over 65 days), volume ~$101,560. This is treated as the primary consensus anchor in absence of a distinct Kalshi quote. Kalshi's own BoE-specific series (KXBOE) returned zero active markets. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket YES price/trajectory** — 92.5% currently, up sharply from a 30-day low near 51.5–55%, and largely flat over the past week (Polymarket direct). 2. **Current Bank Rate & recent decisions** — 3.75% since Dec 2025; held at every 2026 meeting through July: Feb (5–4, dovish dissent), Mar (unanimous), Apr (8–1, hawkish dissent), Jun (7–2), Jul (6–3, "hawkish hold") (BoE minutes via claude_news). 3. **OIS/market-implied expectations** — OIS pricing as of mid-Aug 2026 implies ~72–76% probability of no change, with the residual probability skewed toward a hike (+7bp average implied move) rather than a cut (bluegamma.io, centralbank.watch). 4. **Historical base rate of no-change** — All-meeting hold rate ~51% (2021–2026 sample); non-MPR meetings (Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec, the September slot) show ~68% hold rate; September-only small sample (n=5) ~80% (code_execution analysis). September, as a non-forecast-round meeting, historically has an elevated hold propensity. 5. **Latest CPI/wages/unemployment** — CPI 2.9% (July 2026, up from 2.6%); services CPI 3.4% (down from 3.6% June); wage growth 3.5%/4.1% (regular/total); unemployment up to 5.0%; GDP growth weak (ONS/moneytothemasses). Inflation reacceleration and hawkish dissent argue against a September cut; weak growth/rising unemployment offers modest dovish counter-pressure, but not enough per survey/market data to flip the call toward a cut. 6. **Kalshi comparable market / disagreement with Polymarket** — No distinct Kalshi BoE September 2026 market found (KXBOE series empty); no cross-venue price disagreement observable from raw data. # Key facts (high-confidence) 1. [BoE] Bank Rate = 3.75%, unchanged since Dec 2025 through Jul 2026 (5 straight holds). 2. [BoE] Jul 2026 vote 6–3 hold, with dissent entirely hawkish (want hike to 4%). 3. [ONS] CPI 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.6% — first reacceleration since March. 4. [HOA] ~90% of surveyed economists (13–18 Aug 2026) expect hold through year-end. 5. [bluegamma.io/centralbank.watch] OIS-implied hold probability 72–76%, residual risk skewed to a hike. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: no BoE-specific market found; unrelated Fed-funds/Atlanta Fed markets only. - Polymarket (this ticker): 92.5% YES for no-change — notably higher than OIS (72–76%) and economist-survey-implied consensus. - Sportsbook implied: n/a. # Analyst opinions and speculation - "Hawkish hold" framing (HOA, cambridgecurrencies) — growing internal support for a hike (2→3 dissenters) but Bailey signaling no urgency. - moneytothemasses flags weak GDP/rising unemployment as dovish counterweight, but this view is a minority framing versus the hold-consensus mainstream. - 2026 rate forecasts range 3.50–4.25%, with hold as base case but hike to 4.00% a live risk if services inflation stays elevated. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (no change)**: Strongly favored — 5 consecutive 2026 holds, ~90% economist consensus, 72–76% OIS-implied, 92.5% Polymarket price, ~68% non-MPR historical base rate. All signals point the same direction. - **No (change)**: Weak — if a change occurs, most evidence (hawkish MPC dissent, CPI reacceleration to 2.9%, OIS residual skew) suggests a hike is more likely than a cut, but overall change probability is low (~8–25% depending on source). # Gaps / unknowns - No direct Kalshi price for this exact contract in raw data — relying on Polymarket as anchor; true Kalshi consensus may differ. - August/September CPI, wage, and MPR data (which would directly precede the Sept 17 decision) not yet available in research. - Polymarket's 92.5% is notably more confident than OIS/survey figures (72–90%); the gap is unexplained and could reflect thin/late-mover liquidity or overconfidence. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price (proxy anchor): 92.5%. - OIS-implied hold probability: 72–76%; economist survey: ~90%. - Historical base rate for non-MPR (September-slot) meetings: ~68%; September-only small-sample: ~80%.

4. Forecasters Opus 5 + GPT-5.6 Sol, in parallel

claude-opus-5

72% conf

Yes	90%
No	10%

Bank Rate has been held at 3.75% at all five 2026 meetings, and the Polymarket anchor for this exact contract sits at 92.5% for 'no change,' with ~90% of surveyed economists expecting a hold through year-end. OIS pricing implies a somewhat lower 72–76% hold probability with the residual skewed to a hike, and the July 6–3 hawkish-dissent vote plus CPI reacceleration to 2.9% keep a 4.00% hike a live tail risk. Offsetting that, rising unemployment (5.0%), weak GDP, falling services CPI (3.4%) and Bailey's lack of urgency argue against imminent action, and September is a non-MPR meeting with an elevated historical hold rate (~68–80%). I settle slightly below the Polymarket price to respect the OIS gap and the still-unseen August/September data, landing at ~0.90.

gpt-5.6-sol

73% conf

Yes	88%
No	12%

The 92.5% Polymarket YES price is the primary consensus anchor, while five consecutive holds and roughly 90% economist support for holding through year-end strongly favor Yes. The historical 68% hold rate at non-MPR meetings also supports a September hold, and weak growth plus 5.0% unemployment reduce the urgency of a hike. However, the 72–76% OIS-implied hold probability, CPI reacceleration to 2.9%, and three hawkish dissenters indicate materially greater change risk than the proxy market price suggests. I therefore forecast Yes below the 92.5% anchor, with any No outcome more likely to arise from a hike than a cut.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet 5

Both forecasters converge tightly (0.88–0.90) without adequately explaining why they discount OIS (72–76%) so heavily in favor of Polymarket (92.5%)—the brief explicitly flags this ~15-20pt gap as "unexplained" and possibly due to "thin/late-mover liquidity," yet neither forecast seriously entertains that Polymarket could be the mispriced outlier rather than OIS.

Neither forecast grapples with the missing August/September CPI and wage data that will directly precede the meeting; the brief flags this as a key gap, and given the July reacceleration to 2.9% CPI with hawkish dissent trending (2→3 dissenters over three meetings), an extrapolation of that dissent trajectory could push the hike probability meaningfully higher than either forecaster's ~10-12% No allocation.

Both forecasters treat the "hawkish dissent momentum" (5-4 dovish → unanimous → 8-1 hawkish → 7-2 → 6-3) as a static tail risk rather than a trend; if dissent continues escalating (e.g., to 5-4 hawkish by September), a hike becomes far more plausible than the flat ~10% No probability implies, and neither forecast explicitly models this trajectory.

Neither critique addresses the specific asymmetry within the "No" outcome — both note "hike more likely than cut" but don't quantify it, leaving ambiguity about whether their ~10-12% No mass is split 90/10 hike/cut or something else, which matters for any sub-market on direction of change.

Both anchor heavily on Polymarket despite explicit brief caveats that this is a "proxy" anchor with no direct Kalshi quote and a suspiciously high 30-day run-up (from ~51.5% to 92.5%); neither forecaster discusses what might have driven that rally (e.g., a specific hawkish data point or event) or whether it's justified versus representing a herding/momentum effect.

The historical base-rate section notes September-only sample is small (n=5, ~80% hold rate) — both forecasters cite this as supportive but don't flag the sample-size fragility, potentially overstating its evidentiary weight relative to the more robust ~68% non-MPR rate.

6. Aggregator Opus 5

89% (72% confidence)

Yes: 89% No: 11%

Five consecutive 2026 holds, ~90% economist consensus for a hold through year-end, the 92.5% Polymarket price on this exact contract, and an elevated ~68–80% historical hold rate for non-MPR September meetings all point the same direction. The main counterweight, correctly flagged by the critique, is meeting-dated OIS implying only ~72–76% hold with residual skew to a hike, plus an escalating hawkish dissent trajectory (8–1 → 7–2 → 6–3) and July CPI reaccelerating to 2.9% — so I shade below the Polymarket anchor rather than matching it. However, OIS a month out routinely carries residual risk premium that decays as data arrives, and the dovish offsets (unemployment at 5.0%, weak GDP, services CPI easing to 3.4%, Bailey signalling no urgency) make an immediate September hike unlikely; a 6–3 vote still needs two more converts. I land at 0.89 Yes, with the 11% No mass roughly 85/15 skewed toward a hike over a cut.

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 171.8s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.