Tools chosen: kalshi_direct kalshi_related polymarket_related congress_bills claude_news claude_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a long-horizon Kalshi political market whose probability is driven mainly by (a) whether Democrats win the House in Nov 2026 and (b) whether a House majority would actually bring articles to a floor vote against Trump (or a successor). The market price is the primary anchor, supplemented by base rates (Trump was impeached twice already, 3 of the last 5 presidents impeached) and current impeachment-resolution activity in the 119th Congress.

# Current state Trump has not yet been impeached in his second term (as of latest data, ~Aug 2026). Two privileged impeachment resolutions forced by Rep. Al Green have already been tabled by the House (June 2025, Dec 2025), the latter by a narrower 237-140 margin with 47 Democrats voting "present" (including leadership). The key remaining path to YES is a Democratic House majority after Nov 2026 midterms bringing articles to a successful floor vote before Jan 20, 2029. # Timeline of key events - 2025-01-09: Rep. M. Greene (R) introduces resolutions to expunge Trump's two prior impeachments — symbolic, no bearing on this contract (confirmed, congress.gov). - 2025-05-14/15: Reps. Thanedar and Al Green separately file articles of impeachment (H.Res.353, H.Res.415) (confirmed). - 2025-06-24: First Al Green privileged floor vote tabled; 128 Democrats join Republicans to kill it (confirmed, Bloomberg Gov). - 2025-12-11: Second Al Green privileged floor vote tabled 237-140, with 47 Democrats voting "present," including Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar — signaling softened but still non-supportive Dem leadership stance (confirmed, AP/Fox). - 2026-04-06: Rep. Larson introduces H.Res.1155 with articles drafted by Ralph Nader/Bruce Fein (confirmed, congress.gov). - 2026-05 to 2026-06: Jeffries repeatedly states impeachment is not a Democratic priority even if they win the House, but declines to rule it out (confirmed, CNBC, Fox News/AOL). - 2026-08 (ongoing): Generic ballot and House-control forecasts show Democrats strongly favored (~73-85%) to win House majority in Nov 2026 midterms (reported, multiple pollsters/models/Kalshi/Polymarket). # Event Will President Trump be impeached (House vote) before Jan 20, 2029? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (impeached before Jan 20, 2029) - No (not impeached) # Kalshi market anchor **KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 current YES price: 61%** — down 4 pts over 7 days, down 2 pts over 30 days; range 60-72% over 178 days of data; average daily volume ~1,457-1,704 contracts (solid liquidity). Price has drifted downward from a high of 72% but remains well above 50%, indicating the market sees impeachment as more-likely-than-not, likely driven by high odds of a 2026 Democratic House majority. # Sub-question answers 1. **Kalshi price/trend/volume** — 61% YES, softening slightly (-4% 7d, -2% 30d), liquid (~1,500+ contracts/day). [kalshi_direct] 2. **Comparable markets** — Kalshi's KXTRUMPREMOVE ("impeached AND removed") prices only 15%, reflecting the much harder Senate conviction bar; no active Polymarket equivalent found. [kalshi_related, polymarket_related] 3. **Resolutions/floor votes in 119th Congress** — At least 4 impeachment resolutions filed (Thanedar's H.Res.353, Green's H.Res.415/537/939, Larson's H.Res.1155); two forced privileged votes both tabled — June 2025 (tabled, ~128 Dems joined GOP) and Dec 2025 (237-140, 47 Dems "present"). [congress_bills, claude_news] 4. **Historical base rate** — 3 of last ~30 presidencies (Johnson, Clinton, Trump) saw a sitting president impeached (~10% per term); conditional on opposition controlling House, still not automatic (Biden-era GOP House never forced a vote despite control). [code_execution] 5. **2026 midterm House forecasts** — Polling averages show Dems leading generic ballot D+5 to D+8; forecast models give Dems 73-85% chance of winning House control; Kalshi/Polymarket both price ~85% Dem House win. [claude_news, wikipedia] 6. **Dem leadership stance** — Jeffries has repeatedly said impeachment is "not a priority" even with a majority, prioritizing affordability, but explicitly "haven't ruled anything in or out." No major new scandal identified as an imminent trigger. [claude_news] 7. **Trump leaving office early** — No specific data found on succession probability; not flagged as a material near-term risk in current research (gap). # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Kalshi] Two related contracts diverge sharply: impeachment alone at 61% vs. impeachment+removal at 15%. 2. [congress_bills/AP] Two floor votes already failed in 2025, both tabled with substantial/majority Democratic cooperation. 3. [claude_news] Dem leadership (Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar) shifted from "no" to "present" votes between June and Dec 2025 — softening opposition trend. 4. [claude_news/wikipedia] Prediction markets and pollster models converge on ~73-85% probability Democrats win House in Nov 2026. 5. [code_execution] Historical base rate of successful House impeachment in a 4-year term ≈ 10%, but Trump-specific dynamics (already two prior impeachments, sustained progressive pressure) elevate priors above average. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXTRUMPREMOVE at 15% (impeachment+removal, much lower); Kalshi House control market has Democrats at 85% to win majority; Polymarket Balance-of-Power gives 46% to a full Dem sweep. - Polymarket: No direct "Trump impeached" contract found (0 matches). - Sportsbook implied: N/A. # Analyst opinions and speculation - code_execution decomposition model estimates ~26% (range 14-41%) via Phase1(GOP control, ~2%) + Phase2(Dem majority ~55% × floor-pass conditional ~30-60%) — notably below Kalshi's 61%, suggesting the tool's naive decomposition underweights persistent grassroots/backbench pressure (Al Green-style repeat attempts) that could force additional votes regardless of leadership reluctance. - factually.co/CNBC framing: Dem leadership deprioritizing impeachment as messaging strategy, but not foreclosing it — consistent with keeping optionality if a major scandal emerges. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Elevated House Dem majority odds (~85%), persistent backbench filers (Green, Larson, Thanedar), softening leadership opposition (present votes), Kalshi pricing well above 50%. - **No**: Leadership (Jeffries) explicitly deprioritizing impeachment even with majority; Biden-era precedent shows opposition-controlled House doesn't automatically impeach; two attempts already tabled comfortably in 2025; historical base rate (~10%) far below current price. # Gaps / unknowns - No clear data on any new/emerging scandal that could catalyze leadership-backed impeachment push. - No analysis on Trump succession probability (health, 25th Amendment) altering the calculus. - Discrepancy between code_execution's assumed market price (5-10%) and actual observed Kalshi price (61%) — treat code_execution's "reconciled 12-18%" estimate as likely stale/miscalibrated against the real market anchor. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price: **61%** (primary anchor). - KXTRUMPREMOVE (harsher removal bar): 15%. - Historical unconditional base rate for impeachment in a presidential term: ~10%. - Naive Fermi decomposition (conditional on 2026 midterms): ~26% (14-41% range).

1. Both forecasters converge tightly (0.58/0.57) near the Kalshi anchor but never seriously engage with the code_execution decomposition's ~26% (14-41%) estimate — they mention it only to dismiss it as "stale," but its Phase2 conditional (30-60% chance of floor passage given Dem majority) is arguably better grounded in the actual evidence (two tabled votes, explicit leadership deprioritization) than their own 60-70% conditional, which leans heavily on the 2019 Pelosi precedent without adjusting for how that case differed (Mueller Report, Ukraine call — concrete new scandals) versus the current absence of any comparable trigger ("No major new scandal identified as an imminent trigger"). 2. Both forecasts cite the Biden-era GOP House precedent (controlled House, never forced a vote despite control) as a "No" consideration but don't quantitatively translate it into their conditional-probability estimate — if that precedent is the best analogous base rate for "opposition controls House but leadership doesn't want impeachment," the 60-70% conditional looks too high and should be pulled toward the Fermi model's 30-60% range. 3. Neither forecaster addresses the asymmetry in comparable-market pricing rigorously: KXTRUMPREMOVE at 15% implies markets see removal as very unlikely, but neither explains why impeachment-only should be 4x higher than removal when historically (Clinton, Trump 2019/2021) every impeachment led to acquittal, suggesting traders may be more confident in "impeachment without removal" as a class than the underlying floor-vote math supports — this cross-market consistency check is underexplored. 4. Both treat the 47 Democrats voting "present" in Dec 2025 as clear evidence of "softening opposition," but an alternative reading is that "present" (rather than "yes") signals continued leadership reluctance to formally endorse impeachment while avoiding optics of blocking it — this ambiguity is glossed over and could cut the conditional probability of an actual future affirmative floor vote passing. 5. Neither forecast meaningfully engages sub-question 7 (Trump leaving office early via succession/25th Amendment) or how that would resolve the contract (No, since impeachment requires him still being in office) — a low-probability tail scenario that could modestly reduce YES probability is entirely omitted from both rationales. 6. Both forecasts stay very close to the Kalshi price (57-58% vs 61%) with only cursory justification for shading below it, but given the multiple evidence points suggesting the market may be overpricing (base rate ~10%, Fermi decomposition ~26%, Biden-precedent of no vote despite control, explicit leadership deprioritization), a larger downward adjustment from 61% seems warranted rather than the ~3-4 point token discount both applied.

53% (58% confidence)

Yes: 53% No: 47%

The Kalshi anchor (61%, drifting down from 72%) is the primary signal, but several structural and evidentiary considerations justify a larger discount than the ~3-point token shading both forecasters applied. Long-dated contracts resolving in Jan 2029 systematically overprice YES because NO-side capital is locked for 2.5 years, and Trump-adjacent retail flow skews bullish on dramatic outcomes. Fundamentally, the path is ~85% Dem House × a conditional floor-passage probability that the evidence (two tabled votes with heavy Dem cooperation, Jeffries explicitly deprioritizing, the Biden-era GOP precedent of control-without-a-vote, likely narrow majority with frontline members, no current scandal trigger) puts closer to 50-60% than the 60-70% both forecasters assumed — yielding ~45%. The 'present' votes are genuinely ambiguous (avoiding blame for blocking, not endorsing), and small tails (Trump leaving office early, GOP holding the House) further trim YES. I therefore land at 53%, meaningfully below market but well above the naive ~26% Fermi and ~10% historical base rate, since two years of a Democratic majority plus persistent backbench filers make a triggering event and successful vote quite plausible.

Total pipeline time: 161.9s