Scan: Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

date	predicted	market price	confidence
2026-08-11	55%	63%	38%

1. Planner Opus 5 · Fermi decomposition + tool plan

Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news congress_bills gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

What is the current Polymarket YES price and recent price trend for 'Trump impeached before his term ends'?
What do prediction markets currently imply for Democrats winning control of the US House in the 2026 midterms?
Have any articles of impeachment against Trump been introduced in the 119th Congress, and how did any forced floor votes (e.g., motions to table) go?
What is the historical base rate of a House controlled by the opposition party impeaching a sitting president, and specifically Democratic leadership's stated appetite (Jeffries et al.) for impeachment in 2027?
Are there current scandals/investigations (Epstein files, emoluments, Venezuela strikes, deployment of troops) that could plausibly trigger impeachment proceedings?
What is the conditional probability estimate: P(Dem House 2027) x P(House passes articles | Dem House) and how does that compare to the market price?

Planner reasoning

This is a long-dated political market where the dominant driver is whether Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (impeachment requires a simple House majority), and then whether leadership would actually bring articles to a floor vote. The Polymarket price is the primary anchor; cross-venue and related markets (2026 House control, impeachment-by-date variants) give triangulation, and base rates from Trump's two prior impeachments inform the conditional probability.

2. Research Parallel tool calls

tool	status	time	items	summary
polymarket_direct	OK	0.4s	1	## This Market's Polymarket Data Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? - Current price (probability): 72.00% - 7-day price change: +8.00% - 30-day price change: +4.50% - Total volume: $90,953 (USD notional) - Price range: 48.50% - 72.00% - Data points: 131 days
polymarket_related	OK	3.3s	0	Scanned 100 active Polymarket markets, kept 0 matches. keyword 'impeach': 0 markets \| keyword 'House 2026 midterms': 0 markets \| keyword 'Democrats House control': 0 markets
kalshi_related	OK	3.2s	2	2 related markets / summaries. keyword 'impeachment': no matches \| keyword 'House control 2026': ok \| keyword 'Trump impeached': ok
claude_news	OK	29.3s	12	## Key Findings on Trump Impeachment Efforts (119th Congress) - Multiple impeachment resolutions filed in 2025: Rep. Shri Thanedar introduced seven long-shot articles of impeachment against President Trump in April 2025 , marking the first House Democrat impeachment attempt against Trump's sec
congress_bills	OK	1.2s	10	Found 10 bills matching 'impeachment of President Donald John Trump resolution'.
gdelt_news	OK	169.0s	10	GDELT: 10 articles across 2 queries (lookback=60d). 'Trump impeachment articles House vote': error GDELT rate-limited after retries (429) \| 'Democrats 2026 midterms House impeachment plans': 10 hits
wikipedia	OK	0.1s	3	Fetched 3 Wikipedia entries (0 missing pages).
code_execution	OK	31.2s	0	Decomposition Model: P(YES) = P(Dem House) × P(pass \| Dem control) + P(GOP House) × P(pass \| GOP control) Sensitivity Table (P(pass\|GOP)=0.01 fixed): \| P(Dem House) \| cond=0.20 \| cond=0.25 \| cond=0.30 \| cond=0.35 \| cond=0.40 \| cond=0.45 \| \|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\| \| 0.60 \| 0.124 \| 0.15

3. Evidence Brief Sonnet · 7248 chars

# Current state The market resolves YES if the (GOP-controlled) 119th Congress or a future Congress' House passes articles of impeachment against Trump by simple majority before Jan 20, 2029 — Senate trial/conviction not required. As of now, three Al Green/Thanedar-led impeachment pushes have all failed via bipartisan tabling votes in the current GOP House; the pivotal open question is whether Democrats retake the House in Nov 2026 and, if so, whether leadership prioritizes impeachment. # Timeline of key events - 2025-04-28/05-14: Rep. Thanedar introduces 7 articles of impeachment; referred to Judiciary Committee, no floor vote forced (confirmed — Axios). - 2025-05-15: Rep. Al Green files H.Res.415 impeachment articles; referred to committee (confirmed — Congress.gov). - 2025-06-24: House votes 344–79 to table Green's privileged impeachment resolution (H.Res.537, re: Iran strikes/war powers) (confirmed — KHOU). - 2025-12-11: House votes 237–140 to table Green's H.Res.939 (re: threats against lawmakers/judges); Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar and 47 Dems vote "present," 23 Dems vote to table (confirmed — The Hill, Fox News, Congress.gov). - 2026-03/04: Additional Trump-adjacent impeachment resolutions filed (e.g., AG Bondi by Thanedar, Chief Justice Roberts by Cohen) — pattern of continued resolution filings, not votes on Trump himself (confirmed — Congress.gov). - 2026-04-06: Rep. Larson (D-CT) files new Trump impeachment resolution H.Res.1155; referred to committee, no vote yet (confirmed — Congress.gov). - 2026-04 (Fox News Sunday): Jeffries says impeachment "of course not" a priority if Dems win House (reported). - 2026-06-14 (Meet the Press): Jeffries says Dems "haven't ruled anything in or out," pivots to affordability (reported). - 2026-06-29: Wilbur Ross warns impeachment "likely" if Dems win midterms (rumored/opinion). - 2026-07 to 2026-08: Renewed impeachment calls after election-integrity speech; Trump warns of a "third impeachment" (reported/rumored, multiple outlets). - 2026-11-03: Scheduled 2026 midterm elections determine House control for 120th Congress (confirmed, future). # Event Will the US House pass articles of impeachment against Trump (simple majority, no Senate action needed) before Jan 20, 2029? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No direct kalshi_direct pull returned; the supplied ticker exactly matches the **Polymarket** market "Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?" — current price **72%**, up sharply from a 48.5% low, +8% (7d), +4.5% (30d), on $91K volume over 131 days (Polymarket direct). The closest true Kalshi analog, **KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20** ("impeached before Jan 20, 2029," same resolution logic), trades at **61%** (-2% 7d, -1% 30d, ~1745 avg daily contracts) — a separate Kalshi market, "Trump impeached and removed" (KXTRUMPREMOVE), sits far lower at 15%, confirming removal odds are much lower than House-passage odds. Treat 61-72% range as the market consensus to beat. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket price/trend** — 72% currently, rising from 48.5% low over 131 days; +8% in the last week (Polymarket direct). 2. **Dem House 2026 odds implied by markets** — No direct Kalshi House-control market found; proxy "Next Speaker — Hakeem Jeffries" at 86% implies markets see Dem House control as highly likely (Kalshi related). 3. **Articles introduced/floor votes** — Yes: Thanedar (7 articles, Apr-May 2025, no vote), Green (H.Res.415 no vote; H.Res.537 tabled 344-79 Jun 2025; H.Res.939 tabled 237-140 Dec 2025), Larson (H.Res.1155, Apr 2026, no vote yet). All forced votes failed with bipartisan tabling; Dem leadership voted "present," not backing the effort (Congress.gov, The Hill, KHOU, Fox News). 4. **Base rate & Jeffries appetite** — Trump was impeached in both prior Dem-controlled Houses (2019, 2021) — a 2-for-2 historical rate. Current Jeffries stance is inconsistent: "of course not" a priority (Apr 2026) vs. "haven't ruled anything out" (Jun 2026), suggesting tempered appetite prioritizing affordability messaging (Washington Times, EURweb). 5. **Live scandal triggers** — Yes: Venezuela strikes/war powers (basis of Jun 2025 resolution), threats against lawmakers/judges (Dec 2025 resolution), ongoing Epstein-files-adjacent coverage, and continued "secrets" exposés (Daily Beast, Aug 2026) keep supplying nominal grounds (GDELT, claude_news). 6. **Conditional decomposition vs market** — Model: P(Dem House)≈0.675 × P(pass|Dem)≈0.30 ≈ **20.6%** central estimate (range 12-34% across sensitivity grid); GOP-House branch contributes <1pt. This sits far below both Polymarket (72%) and Kalshi analog (61%) (code_execution). # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Congress.gov] Three Trump impeachment resolutions forced floor action in 119th Congress; two tabled decisively (344-79; 237-140). 2. [The Hill/Fox News] Dem leadership (Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar) voted "present"; 23 Dems voted to table in Dec 2025. 3. [Wikipedia] Trump impeached in both prior instances (2019, 2021) when Dems controlled House. 4. [Kalshi related] Jeffries-as-Speaker market at 86% signals high implied odds of Dem House takeover. 5. [Congress.gov] New Trump impeachment resolution (Larson) filed Apr 2026, underscoring continued Democratic interest even before midterms. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 = 61% (closest analog); KXTRUMPREMOVE = 15% (removal, much lower); Speaker-Jeffries = 86%; 2028 Dem Sweep = 55%. - Polymarket: this exact market = 72%, uptrending. - Sportsbook implied: none found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Wilbur Ross (Jun 2026): impeachment "likely" if Dems win midterms (partisan speculation, not a factual predictor). - claude_news synthesis: "low probability absent a major new triggering scandal," even with Dem House, given leadership's affordability focus. - code_execution model flags market (61-72%) as plausibly overpricing relative to structural decomposition (~20%), though acknowledges 2-for-2 historical base rate argues for weighting the higher end of conditional-pass estimates. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Rising Polymarket trend, perfect historical precedent under Dem control, active scandal pipeline (Venezuela, Epstein, troop deployments), multiple resolutions already pre-filed for 2027 session. - **No**: GOP House already tabled 2 attempts decisively; Jeffries repeatedly downplays impeachment as priority; moderate Dems crossed lines to table; Dem House control still uncertain (~65-75%); decomposition model implies fair value near 20%, well below current market prices. # Gaps / unknowns - True Kalshi-native price for this exact ticker unavailable (only Polymarket direct match found; ticker format ambiguous). - No hard polling/market data isolating "Dem House 2026" probability beyond Speaker-market proxy. - Unclear how post-election Dem caucus dynamics (moderates vs. progressives) would resolve if House flips. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket (this market): 72% YES, uptrending. - Kalshi analog (KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20): 61% YES. - Decomposition model central estimate: ~20-21% (range 12-34%). - Historical precedent: 2/2 impeachments occurred under Dem House control; 0/3 attempts succeeded under GOP House control (2025).

4. Forecasters Opus 5 + GPT-5.5 · in parallel

claude-opus-5

47% conf

Yes	56%
No	44%

The resolution bar is low — only a simple-majority House vote on articles is needed, no Senate action — and Trump was impeached 2-for-2 in prior Democratic Houses, including after Pelosi initially resisted. Markets imply Dem House control is very likely (Jeffries-as-Speaker proxy at 86%), and an active trigger pipeline (Venezuela strikes/war powers, threats-against-judges resolution, Epstein-adjacent coverage) plus already-filed resolutions (Green, Thanedar, Larson H.Res.1155) mean articles would be immediately available in the 120th Congress. Against that: all three forced votes in the GOP House were tabled decisively (344-79; 237-140), 23 Democrats voted to table and leadership voted 'present,' and Jeffries has repeatedly framed impeachment as not a priority versus affordability messaging — a structural decomposition (P(Dem House)~0.70 × P(pass|Dem)~0.4-0.5) lands nearer 30-40%. I anchor on the Kalshi analog KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 at 61% (Polymarket 72% looks retail-inflated, and KXTRUMPREMOVE at 15% confirms only House passage is in play), shading modestly below it toward the decomposition.

gpt-5.5

52% conf

Yes	43%
No	57%

The market anchor is high: the closest Kalshi analog is 61% YES and Polymarket is 72% YES, which points toward Yes because traders expect a Democratic House and possible impeachment pressure. The Jeffries-as-Speaker proxy at 86% and Trump’s 2-for-2 impeachment history under Democratic Houses also point toward Yes, but the current evidence of House behavior points toward No: multiple Trump impeachment pushes have been decisively tabled, with Democratic leadership voting present and some Democrats voting to table. Jeffries’ public stance that impeachment is not a priority, plus a decomposition estimate near 20%, suggests the market may be overpricing the conditional probability that a Democratic House actually passes articles absent a major new trigger. I still leave substantial Yes probability because scandals and pre-filed resolutions create an available pathway if Democrats win the House and political incentives shift.

5. Devil's Advocate Sonnet · red-team critique

Both forecasts converge in the 43-56% range, essentially splitting the difference between the market anchors (61-72%) and the decomposition model (~20%), but neither justifies why the decomposition's key parameter—P(pass|Dem House)—should be so much higher than the ~30% implied by the brief's own sensitivity grid (12-34%); Forecast 1 explicitly uses 0.4-0.5 for this term with no direct evidential support, nearly doubling the brief's central estimate.

Neither forecaster grapples with the crucial asymmetry in the historical base rate: the "2/2 impeached under Dem House" precedent involved genuinely novel scandals (Ukraine call, Jan 6) that triggered broad caucus consensus, whereas the current tabled votes (344-79, 237-140) show the *opposite* dynamic — leadership and moderates actively suppressing premature action — a structural difference that should lower P(pass|Dem) rather than anchor near historical rates.

Both forecasters treat Jeffries' "haven't ruled anything in or out" (Jun 2026) as meaningfully bullish, but this is boilerplate non-committal language, not a signal shift from "of course not" (Apr 2026); over-weighting this pivot may inflate Yes probability without new evidence of leadership intent.

Neither forecast addresses the compounding conditional structure explicitly: even if Dems win the House (~70-75%) AND leadership eventually supports impeachment, the timing matters — a scandal-driven vote would need to occur before Jan 20, 2029, giving only ~2 years (120th Congress) for triggers to materialize and for caucus dynamics to shift from current suppression to active support, a temporal constraint that neither rationale quantifies.

Both anchor on the Kalshi/Polymarket range (61-72%) as the effective ceiling for shading down, but neither seriously entertains that retail/prediction markets on politically salient impeachment topics are known to overprice "high-salience, low-follow-through" events (annual "will X be impeached" markets historically overshoot), meaning the decomposition model's ~20% may deserve more weight than a 15-20 point discount from market price.

Neither forecast explicitly addresses the scenario where Dems win the House but by a narrow margin, making moderates (the same 23 who voted to table in Dec 2025) pivotal gatekeepers against impeachment — a specific, evidence-backed swing-vote bloc that could suppress passage even under nominal Dem control, which would push P(pass|Dem) toward the lower end of the sensitivity range rather than the 40-50% both estimates implicitly assume.

6. Aggregator Opus 5 · final calibrated forecast

45% (50% confidence)

Yes: 45% No: 55%

The resolution bar is low (House simple majority only), Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House (Jeffries-as-Speaker proxy 86%), and Trump was impeached in both prior Democratic Houses, so the pathway is real and articles are already pre-filed. But the critique's core point holds: the decisive bipartisan tabling votes (344-79; 237-140), with leadership voting 'present' and 23 Democrats voting to table, show active suppression rather than latent consensus, and a narrow Democratic majority would leave those same swing-district moderates as gatekeepers — any forced privileged resolution could still be tabled with GOP votes plus a handful of Democrats. Jeffries' 'haven't ruled anything out' is boilerplate, not a shift from 'of course not,' and a lame-duck Trump ahead of 2028 gives Democrats strategic reasons to prefer oversight/investigations over impeachment. Weighting P(Dem House)≈0.78-0.80 against P(pass|Dem)≈0.40-0.50 (above the brief's 0.30 because two full years of a Trump presidency with subpoena-empowered committees and live triggers like Venezuela strikes make an eventual scandal-driven vote plausible) yields roughly 0.33-0.40; I nudge up modestly toward the 61-72% market range while discounting it for the known tendency of prediction markets to overprice high-salience, low-follow-through impeachment questions.

7. Entry Decision Opus 5 trader

Side

no

Position Size

$1,200

Contracts

4000

Trader Confidence

50%

Trade rationale

This is a direction-disagreement setup: the market prices YES at 72% (impeachment more likely than not) while the ensemble lands at 45% — opposite sides of 50% with a 27pp edge, historically the cleanest signal class. The substantive case for NO is concrete rather than hand-wavy: the two 2026 tabling votes (344-79 and 237-140, with 23 Democrats voting to table and leadership voting 'present') show active suppression rather than latent caucus consensus, and even a narrow Democratic House leaves swing-district moderates as gatekeepers with only ~2 years for a new trigger to materialize. Prediction markets also have a documented tendency to overprice high-salience, low-follow-through impeachment questions. Countervailing: forecaster confidence is a middling 0.49, the ensemble spread is 13pp with claude-opus-5 at 56% (i.e., one member actually agrees with the market's direction), and the Devil's Advocate is right that P(pass|Dem) of 0.40-0.50 is asserted rather than derived — so I size below the max for a 27pp edge.

Allocation logic

Above baseline because of the large direction-disagreement edge, but capped at $1200 rather than $2000 given the 885-day horizon (capital tied up, many unknown triggers), the 13pp ensemble split with one member on the market's side, and mild correlation with the existing 2026 Democratic-control position in the book.

Entry price: $0.30

Current: $0.24

Status: OPEN

P&L: -$273.60

Pipeline Timing

Total pipeline time: 306.6s

Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.