Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news congress_bills gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a long-dated political market where the dominant driver is whether Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (impeachment requires a simple House majority), and then whether leadership would actually bring articles to a floor vote. The Polymarket price is the primary anchor; cross-venue and related markets (2026 House control, impeachment-by-date variants) give triangulation, and base rates from Trump's two prior impeachments inform the conditional probability.

# Current state The market resolves YES if the (GOP-controlled) 119th Congress or a future Congress' House passes articles of impeachment against Trump by simple majority before Jan 20, 2029 — Senate trial/conviction not required. As of now, three Al Green/Thanedar-led impeachment pushes have all failed via bipartisan tabling votes in the current GOP House; the pivotal open question is whether Democrats retake the House in Nov 2026 and, if so, whether leadership prioritizes impeachment. # Timeline of key events - 2025-04-28/05-14: Rep. Thanedar introduces 7 articles of impeachment; referred to Judiciary Committee, no floor vote forced (confirmed — Axios). - 2025-05-15: Rep. Al Green files H.Res.415 impeachment articles; referred to committee (confirmed — Congress.gov). - 2025-06-24: House votes 344–79 to table Green's privileged impeachment resolution (H.Res.537, re: Iran strikes/war powers) (confirmed — KHOU). - 2025-12-11: House votes 237–140 to table Green's H.Res.939 (re: threats against lawmakers/judges); Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar and 47 Dems vote "present," 23 Dems vote to table (confirmed — The Hill, Fox News, Congress.gov). - 2026-03/04: Additional Trump-adjacent impeachment resolutions filed (e.g., AG Bondi by Thanedar, Chief Justice Roberts by Cohen) — pattern of continued resolution filings, not votes on Trump himself (confirmed — Congress.gov). - 2026-04-06: Rep. Larson (D-CT) files new Trump impeachment resolution H.Res.1155; referred to committee, no vote yet (confirmed — Congress.gov). - 2026-04 (Fox News Sunday): Jeffries says impeachment "of course not" a priority if Dems win House (reported). - 2026-06-14 (Meet the Press): Jeffries says Dems "haven't ruled anything in or out," pivots to affordability (reported). - 2026-06-29: Wilbur Ross warns impeachment "likely" if Dems win midterms (rumored/opinion). - 2026-07 to 2026-08: Renewed impeachment calls after election-integrity speech; Trump warns of a "third impeachment" (reported/rumored, multiple outlets). - 2026-11-03: Scheduled 2026 midterm elections determine House control for 120th Congress (confirmed, future). # Event Will the US House pass articles of impeachment against Trump (simple majority, no Senate action needed) before Jan 20, 2029? # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor No direct kalshi_direct pull returned; the supplied ticker exactly matches the **Polymarket** market "Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?" — current price **72%**, up sharply from a 48.5% low, +8% (7d), +4.5% (30d), on $91K volume over 131 days (Polymarket direct). The closest true Kalshi analog, **KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20** ("impeached before Jan 20, 2029," same resolution logic), trades at **61%** (-2% 7d, -1% 30d, ~1745 avg daily contracts) — a separate Kalshi market, "Trump impeached and removed" (KXTRUMPREMOVE), sits far lower at 15%, confirming removal odds are much lower than House-passage odds. Treat 61-72% range as the market consensus to beat. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket price/trend** — 72% currently, rising from 48.5% low over 131 days; +8% in the last week (Polymarket direct). 2. **Dem House 2026 odds implied by markets** — No direct Kalshi House-control market found; proxy "Next Speaker — Hakeem Jeffries" at 86% implies markets see Dem House control as highly likely (Kalshi related). 3. **Articles introduced/floor votes** — Yes: Thanedar (7 articles, Apr-May 2025, no vote), Green (H.Res.415 no vote; H.Res.537 tabled 344-79 Jun 2025; H.Res.939 tabled 237-140 Dec 2025), Larson (H.Res.1155, Apr 2026, no vote yet). All forced votes failed with bipartisan tabling; Dem leadership voted "present," not backing the effort (Congress.gov, The Hill, KHOU, Fox News). 4. **Base rate & Jeffries appetite** — Trump was impeached in both prior Dem-controlled Houses (2019, 2021) — a 2-for-2 historical rate. Current Jeffries stance is inconsistent: "of course not" a priority (Apr 2026) vs. "haven't ruled anything out" (Jun 2026), suggesting tempered appetite prioritizing affordability messaging (Washington Times, EURweb). 5. **Live scandal triggers** — Yes: Venezuela strikes/war powers (basis of Jun 2025 resolution), threats against lawmakers/judges (Dec 2025 resolution), ongoing Epstein-files-adjacent coverage, and continued "secrets" exposés (Daily Beast, Aug 2026) keep supplying nominal grounds (GDELT, claude_news). 6. **Conditional decomposition vs market** — Model: P(Dem House)≈0.675 × P(pass|Dem)≈0.30 ≈ **20.6%** central estimate (range 12-34% across sensitivity grid); GOP-House branch contributes <1pt. This sits far below both Polymarket (72%) and Kalshi analog (61%) (code_execution). # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Congress.gov] Three Trump impeachment resolutions forced floor action in 119th Congress; two tabled decisively (344-79; 237-140). 2. [The Hill/Fox News] Dem leadership (Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar) voted "present"; 23 Dems voted to table in Dec 2025. 3. [Wikipedia] Trump impeached in both prior instances (2019, 2021) when Dems controlled House. 4. [Kalshi related] Jeffries-as-Speaker market at 86% signals high implied odds of Dem House takeover. 5. [Congress.gov] New Trump impeachment resolution (Larson) filed Apr 2026, underscoring continued Democratic interest even before midterms. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 = 61% (closest analog); KXTRUMPREMOVE = 15% (removal, much lower); Speaker-Jeffries = 86%; 2028 Dem Sweep = 55%. - Polymarket: this exact market = 72%, uptrending. - Sportsbook implied: none found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Wilbur Ross (Jun 2026): impeachment "likely" if Dems win midterms (partisan speculation, not a factual predictor). - claude_news synthesis: "low probability absent a major new triggering scandal," even with Dem House, given leadership's affordability focus. - code_execution model flags market (61-72%) as plausibly overpricing relative to structural decomposition (~20%), though acknowledges 2-for-2 historical base rate argues for weighting the higher end of conditional-pass estimates. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Rising Polymarket trend, perfect historical precedent under Dem control, active scandal pipeline (Venezuela, Epstein, troop deployments), multiple resolutions already pre-filed for 2027 session. - **No**: GOP House already tabled 2 attempts decisively; Jeffries repeatedly downplays impeachment as priority; moderate Dems crossed lines to table; Dem House control still uncertain (~65-75%); decomposition model implies fair value near 20%, well below current market prices. # Gaps / unknowns - True Kalshi-native price for this exact ticker unavailable (only Polymarket direct match found; ticker format ambiguous). - No hard polling/market data isolating "Dem House 2026" probability beyond Speaker-market proxy. - Unclear how post-election Dem caucus dynamics (moderates vs. progressives) would resolve if House flips. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket (this market): 72% YES, uptrending. - Kalshi analog (KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20): 61% YES. - Decomposition model central estimate: ~20-21% (range 12-34%). - Historical precedent: 2/2 impeachments occurred under Dem House control; 0/3 attempts succeeded under GOP House control (2025).

1. Both forecasts converge in the 43-56% range, essentially splitting the difference between the market anchors (61-72%) and the decomposition model (~20%), but neither justifies why the decomposition's key parameter—P(pass|Dem House)—should be so much higher than the ~30% implied by the brief's own sensitivity grid (12-34%); Forecast 1 explicitly uses 0.4-0.5 for this term with no direct evidential support, nearly doubling the brief's central estimate. 2. Neither forecaster grapples with the crucial asymmetry in the historical base rate: the "2/2 impeached under Dem House" precedent involved genuinely novel scandals (Ukraine call, Jan 6) that triggered broad caucus consensus, whereas the current tabled votes (344-79, 237-140) show the *opposite* dynamic — leadership and moderates actively suppressing premature action — a structural difference that should lower P(pass|Dem) rather than anchor near historical rates. 3. Both forecasters treat Jeffries' "haven't ruled anything in or out" (Jun 2026) as meaningfully bullish, but this is boilerplate non-committal language, not a signal shift from "of course not" (Apr 2026); over-weighting this pivot may inflate Yes probability without new evidence of leadership intent. 4. Neither forecast addresses the compounding conditional structure explicitly: even if Dems win the House (~70-75%) AND leadership eventually supports impeachment, the timing matters — a scandal-driven vote would need to occur before Jan 20, 2029, giving only ~2 years (120th Congress) for triggers to materialize and for caucus dynamics to shift from current suppression to active support, a temporal constraint that neither rationale quantifies. 5. Both anchor on the Kalshi/Polymarket range (61-72%) as the effective ceiling for shading down, but neither seriously entertains that retail/prediction markets on politically salient impeachment topics are known to overprice "high-salience, low-follow-through" events (annual "will X be impeached" markets historically overshoot), meaning the decomposition model's ~20% may deserve more weight than a 15-20 point discount from market price. 6. Neither forecast explicitly addresses the scenario where Dems win the House but by a narrow margin, making moderates (the same 23 who voted to table in Dec 2025) pivotal gatekeepers against impeachment — a specific, evidence-backed swing-vote bloc that could suppress passage even under nominal Dem control, which would push P(pass|Dem) toward the lower end of the sensitivity range rather than the 40-50% both estimates implicitly assume.

45% (50% confidence)

Yes: 45% No: 55%

The resolution bar is low (House simple majority only), Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House (Jeffries-as-Speaker proxy 86%), and Trump was impeached in both prior Democratic Houses, so the pathway is real and articles are already pre-filed. But the critique's core point holds: the decisive bipartisan tabling votes (344-79; 237-140), with leadership voting 'present' and 23 Democrats voting to table, show active suppression rather than latent consensus, and a narrow Democratic majority would leave those same swing-district moderates as gatekeepers — any forced privileged resolution could still be tabled with GOP votes plus a handful of Democrats. Jeffries' 'haven't ruled anything out' is boilerplate, not a shift from 'of course not,' and a lame-duck Trump ahead of 2028 gives Democrats strategic reasons to prefer oversight/investigations over impeachment. Weighting P(Dem House)≈0.78-0.80 against P(pass|Dem)≈0.40-0.50 (above the brief's 0.30 because two full years of a Trump presidency with subpoena-empowered committees and live triggers like Venezuela strikes make an eventual scandal-driven vote plausible) yields roughly 0.33-0.40; I nudge up modestly toward the 61-72% market range while discounting it for the known tendency of prediction markets to overprice high-salience, low-follow-through impeachment questions.

Total pipeline time: 306.6s