Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related fred claude_news gdelt_news code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a Polymarket question on whether the FOMC delivers zero 25bp cuts during all of 2026, so the primary anchor is the Polymarket price plus the sibling markets in the same 'how many cuts' event ladder. Key drivers are the December 2025 SEP dot plot, current fed funds level, inflation/labor data, and the leadership change at the Fed (Powell's term as chair ends May 2026), all of which lean dovish and make 'zero cuts' a tail outcome. Kalshi has a parallel FOMC-decision series for cross-venue triangulation.

# Current state No FOMC rate cut has occurred in 2026 through the July 29, 2026 meeting; the target range has been held at 3.50%–3.75% since the December 2025 cut. New Chair Kevin Warsh (took office May 22, 2026) has overseen a hawkish shift, with the June 2026 dot plot showing 9 of 18 voting members projecting hikes rather than cuts. Resolution requires zero 25bp cuts across all FOMC decisions (including emergency ones) through Dec 31, 2026; the market resolves early to "No" if a cut becomes impossible to avoid — but as framed, "Yes" = no cuts in 2026. # Timeline of key events - 2025-12: FOMC cuts 25bp to 3.50–3.75% (3rd consecutive cut); Dec SEP median implies 1 cut in 2026, but dots split widely (hike-to-4-cuts). (confirmed, claude_news) - 2026-01-28: FOMC holds at 3.50–3.75%; Miran and Waller dissent for a cut. (confirmed, CNBC/JPM) - 2026-03-17/18: FOMC holds 11-1 (Miran dissents); March SEP median still shows 1 more cut for the year. (confirmed) - 2026-04 (date unspecified): FOMC holds with 4 dissents reflecting split on pace of easing. (confirmed, claude_news) - 2026-05-13: Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, 54–45. (confirmed, CNBC) - 2026-05-22: Warsh takes office as Fed Chair; Powell remains on Board as governor. (confirmed) - 2026-06 (meeting date unspecified): FOMC unanimous hold at 3.50–3.75% (Warsh's first meeting); June SEP shows sharp hawkish shift — 9/18 voters project ≥1 hike, evenly split on direction. (confirmed) - 2026-07-29: FOMC holds at 3.50–3.75% (5th consecutive hold in 2026). (confirmed, Yahoo/CNBC) - 2026-08 (ongoing): Warsh withholds forward guidance two meetings running; markets increasingly price a possible hike; CME FedWatch shows ~69% probability of hold at Sept 16, 2026 meeting (implying ~31% chance of a move, direction uncertain but framed as hike risk in press). (reported, fool.com/Forbes/investmentnews) # Event Will there be zero 25bp Fed rate cuts across all of calendar year 2026? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (no cuts in 2026) - No (at least one cut in 2026) # Kalshi market anchor No Kalshi-direct price was returned for this ticker in the raw research (only Polymarket data available under the identical ticker). Polymarket price for the same question: **85.15% YES** (no cuts), down 0.6% over 7 days, up 1.1% over 30 days, range 65.75%–89.35% over 89 days, $7.29M volume — a substantial and rising consensus favoring no cuts. Treat this as the best available cross-market proxy for the Kalshi consensus. # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket price/trend** — 85.15% currently; drifted up from ~66-89% range over 89 days, net +1.1% on 30d, essentially flat/slightly down on 7d — a stable, high-confidence "no cuts" consensus. (polymarket_direct) 2. **SEP dot plot / current rate** — Dec 2025 SEP: median 1 cut for 2026, but widely split dots. March 2026 SEP: still median 1 cut. June 2026 SEP (post-Warsh): 9/18 voters project ≥1 hike, split evenly between higher and unchanged/lower — hawkish reversal. Current target range 3.50–3.75% (DFF≈3.63%). (claude_news, FRED) 3. **Kalshi meeting-by-meeting markets** — Not directly retrieved; only unrelated long-dated Fed funds level markets found (2034–2036 strikes), no signal on 2026 meeting-specific cut odds. Proxy: CME FedWatch ~69% hold probability for Sept 16, 2026. (kalshi_related, claude_news) 4. **Inflation/labor data** — CPI rising steadily (326.6 Jan → 332.8 Jul 2026, ~+1.9% over 7mo, elevated); Core PCE index rising ~128.5→130.3 (Jan-Jun); unemployment rate stable/slightly declining 4.4%→4.1% (Jan-Jul 2026); payrolls roughly flat (~158.4M-158.9M). Combination of resilient labor market + sticky inflation supports continued holds, not cuts. (FRED) 5. **Fed Chair succession** — Kevin Warsh confirmed by Senate (54–45) and took office May 22, 2026, succeeding Powell. Warsh has been hawkish: unanimous holds, refused forward guidance twice, and June SEP under his tenure shifted toward hike risk, reducing near-term cut odds. (claude_news, CNBC, Yahoo) 6. **Cut already occurred / meetings remaining** — No cut has occurred in 2026 through July 29 (5 consecutive holds: Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul). Remaining scheduled 2026 meetings appear to include at least September 16 and further Oct/Dec dates per standard FOMC calendar (exact count not confirmed in research, but "5 straight meetings held" implies 2-3 remain). (claude_news, gdelt_news) 7. **Historical base rate** — Not directly answered by research; qualitatively, years with zero Fed cuts are common during hiking/holding cycles (e.g., 2005-2006, 2017-2018, 2022-2023) but rarer immediately following an active cutting cycle. No specific count provided in sources — treat as a gap. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [claude_news] Target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75% since Dec 2025; confirmed holds at every 2026 meeting through July 29. 2. [claude_news] Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair May 22, 2026; June SEP under his tenure shows hawkish dot shift (9/18 project hikes). 3. [FRED] DFF ≈3.63%, DFEDTARU=3.75% as of Aug 2026 — consistent with no cut since Dec 2025. 4. [FRED] CPI and core PCE both trending up through mid-2026; unemployment stable in low-4% range — mixed/hawkish-leaning data. 5. [polymarket_direct] 85.15% "Yes" (no cuts) priced with $7.29M volume, near multi-month highs. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No direct 2026-cut-count market found; only long-dated Fed funds level markets (2034-2036), price range 10-24% for high strikes — not directly informative. - Polymarket: 85.15% "no cuts in 2026," rising trend, high volume — strong signal. - Sportsbook implied: N/A (not applicable to Fed policy). - CME FedWatch (via claude_news): ~69% hold probability for Sept 16, 2026 meeting. # Analyst opinions and speculation - Multiple outlets (Fool, CNBC, InvestmentNews) frame 2026 as a "hawkish pivot" year, with commentary suggesting a hike—not a cut—is increasingly plausible before year-end under Warsh. - Analysts note Warsh's opacity (no forward guidance for two meetings) as adding uncertainty, but consensus commentary leans toward continued holds/possible hikes rather than cuts. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (no cuts)**: Strongly supported — 5 consecutive holds already in 2026, hawkish Warsh-era dot plot, resilient labor data, sticky inflation, 85% Polymarket price with upward momentum. - **No (≥1 cut)**: Weak support — only from residual dovish dissents (Miran, Waller) and earlier-year SEP medians (Dec/March) implying 1 cut; window narrowing as year progresses with few meetings left and hawkish shift entrenched. # Gaps / unknowns - No direct Kalshi-native pricing/volume data for this exact ticker (only Polymarket data with matching ticker was available). - Exact number/dates of remaining 2026 FOMC meetings not fully enumerated. - No explicit historical base-rate figure for zero-cut years computed. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket/Kalshi-proxy YES price: 85.15% (no cuts) — primary anchor. - Precedent: full-year holds are common post-hawkish-pivot (e.g., 2022-23 hiking cycle, 2017-18); five consecutive 2026 holds plus hawkish June SEP make additional cuts increasingly unlikely with the year over half over.

1. Both forecasters anchor tightly to the 85.15% Polymarket proxy and nudge only slightly upward, but neither addresses that this is explicitly flagged as a proxy, not the actual Kalshi price — the brief notes "No Kalshi-direct price was returned," yet both treat it as near-equivalent to Kalshi consensus without discounting for potential platform/liquidity divergence. 2. Neither forecast seriously engages with the CME FedWatch ~69% hold figure for a single meeting (Sept) as a base rate that, compounded across 2-3 remaining meetings even at high hold probability per meeting, could meaningfully raise cumulative "at least one move" odds — e.g., 0.69^3 ≈ 33% chance of at least one non-hold across three meetings, which is in tension with an 87-88% "no cut" estimate given some of that residual probability could be a cut rather than a hike. 3. Both forecasters lump "hike risk" and "cut risk" together as if hawkish framing purely supports the Yes (no-cut) outcome, but a hike is irrelevant to this question's resolution — the real relevant tail risk is a recession/labor-shock-driven cut, which neither forecast quantifies distinctly (they mention it only vaguely as "~12-13%" residual). 4. Neither addresses the resolution mechanics note that the market "resolves early to No if a cut becomes impossible to avoid" — this asymmetric early-resolution rule could matter for timing/liquidity but isn't discussed by either forecaster. 5. The historical base-rate gap flagged in the brief ("no specific count provided... treat as a gap") is not filled by either forecaster; both simply assert zero-cut years are "common post-hawkish-pivot" without checking whether a rate-cut cycle that reverses to zero-cuts-for-the-year within the same year (as opposed to a sustained hiking regime like 2022-23) is actually a common pattern, which is a weaker analogy than implied. 6. Both forecasters converge almost identically (88% vs 87%) without meaningfully differentiating their reasoning or independently stress-testing the anchor, suggesting potential correlated bias/anchoring rather than two truly independent estimates — worth flagging as a sanity check rather than confirmation.

88% (76% confidence)

Yes: 88% No: 12%

Five consecutive holds through July 29 leave only ~3 meetings (Sept/Oct/Dec) for a cut, and the policy regime under Chair Warsh has shifted hawkish (June SEP: 9/18 voters projecting hikes, no forward guidance, unanimous holds), while sticky CPI/core PCE and a firming labor market (unemployment 4.4%→4.1%) remove the obvious dovish trigger. The critique is right that hike risk is irrelevant to resolution and that only a genuine growth/labor shock produces a cut; however, that decomposition actually strengthens Yes, since most of the ~31% implied Sept move probability is hike-directional, not cut-directional. The Polymarket 85.15% proxy ($7.29M volume, near multi-month highs) is the best anchor available; I sit modestly above it because the calendar has since narrowed and the hawkish tilt is entrenched, while reserving ~12% for a rapid labor-market deterioration or the dovish bloc (Miran, Waller) prevailing by December — a real tail given how quickly the Fed has pivoted in both directions recently. The weak historical analogy and proxy-vs-Kalshi uncertainty argue against pushing much past ~0.90.

Total pipeline time: 333.1s