Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related claude_news claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia kalshi_related code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This resolves on Google's Year in Search 2026 Global "Actors" list, released ~December 2026. The key drivers are Tom Holland's 2026 profile (Spider-Man: Brand New Day, released July 31, 2026, plus The Odyssey) versus rival actors with major 2026 events, and the base rate of repeat #1 finishers in that list. Market price on Polymarket is the primary anchor, supplemented by news on 2026 film slates and historical Year in Search actor rankings.

# Current state The market resolves based on Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global "Actors" list, which has not yet been published (expected ~December 2026). Two of Tom Holland's three major 2026 films (The Odyssey, Spider-Man: Brand New Day) have already released and performed strongly at the box office; Avengers: Doomsday releases Dec 18, 2026, just before the compilation window closes. Polymarket currently prices Holland at ~19%, down sharply from a 42% high a month ago — market sentiment has cooled even as his films have released. # Timeline of key events - 2022-12: Johnny Depp named #1 global actor, driven by Depp v. Heard trial (confirmed – CBS News). - 2023-12: Jeremy Renner named #1 global actor following his near-fatal snowplow accident (confirmed – IMDb/NME). - 2024-12: Katt Williams named #1 global actor amid career resurgence (confirmed – AP/Goodreads). - 2025-12: Mikey Madison named #1 global actor (Oscar win surprise) per Google's official list (Deadline/SEJ); Pedro Pascal topped the separate US list; Tom Holland absent from global top 10. A conflicting non-Google ranking (VegasInsider, avg. monthly search volume) names Sydney Sweeney as most-searched actor — different methodology, not Google's official list (reconciliation: Deadline/Google's own list is the authoritative source for this market). - 2026-03 (reported): Brand New Day first trailer draws 718M views in 24 hours, reportedly the biggest trailer launch ever. - 2026-06-16 (reported): Holland & Zendaya begin global BND promotional tour (Madrid). - 2026-07-06/07-17 (confirmed): The Odyssey premieres in London, releases in US/UK; ensemble led by Matt Damon, with Holland in a supporting role (Telemachus). Grossed $1.177B worldwide (per Wikipedia, post-release data). - 2026-07-27/07-31 (confirmed): Spider-Man: Brand New Day premieres and releases; Holland stars as lead. Grossed $1.824B worldwide, highest-grossing film of 2026 (per Wikipedia). - 2026-12-18 (scheduled/confirmed): Avengers: Doomsday releases, led by Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom — a major ensemble event likely to spike searches for RDJ specifically. - Year-end 2026: Google Year in Search list not yet published as of research cutoff. # Event Will Tom Holland top Google's official 2026 Year in Search Global "Actors" list? # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (Tom Holland is #1) - No (someone else is #1) # Kalshi market anchor Polymarket-derived price (same event, ticker-matched): **18.95% YES**, down from a 42% high; -1.2% over 7 days, -23.05% over 30 days. Volume is thin (~$18.9K total), so price is not highly liquid/robust. Trend suggests fading conviction despite Holland's films already releasing. # Sub-question answers 1. **Historical #1s (2022-2025):** Johnny Depp (2022), Jeremy Renner (2023), Katt Williams (2024), Mikey Madison (2025) — all global actors list. No actor has repeated as #1 in consecutive years across this sample (claude_news, code_execution base-rate analysis: repeat rate ~12-20%). 2. **Holland's 2026 slate:** Unprecedented three major releases — The Odyssey (Nolan, released July 17), Spider-Man: Brand New Day (lead role, released July 31, highest-grossing 2026 film, $1.824B gross), Avengers: Doomsday (Dec 18, ensemble). Trailer for BND reportedly set an all-time viewing record (claude_news, Wikipedia). 3. **Competing 2026 draws:** Robert Downey Jr. (Doctor Doom reveal in Doomsday) is a major search-driver; Matt Damon leads The Odyssey; Zendaya appears across multiple Holland films and could compete for search share. Historical pattern favors scandal/breakout actors (Depp, Renner, Williams, Madison) over established franchise leads. 4. **Non-US skew:** Global list has included Korean/international entries (e.g., Song Ji Woo in 2025), suggesting real possibility of a non-Western breakout actor topping the 2026 list unexpectedly — not specifically identified for 2026 in research. 5. **Polymarket price:** 18.95% for Holland; no other actor-specific competing markets found in the Polymarket dataset (polymarket_related returned zero matches). 6. **List discontinuation risk:** No evidence found that Google plans to alter/discontinue the Actors sub-list for 2026; research found no relevant signal either way. # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [Deadline/SEJ] Mikey Madison was Google's official #1 global actor for 2025; Holland did not appear in the global top 10. 2. [Wikipedia] The Odyssey and Brand New Day have already released (July 2026) and grossed $1.177B and $1.824B respectively. 3. [Wikipedia] Avengers: Doomsday releases Dec 18, 2026, led by Robert Downey Jr. 4. [claude_news] Historical #1s were driven by scandal/accident/breakout (Depp, Renner, Williams, Madison), not sustained A-list stardom. 5. [Polymarket] Current YES price 18.95%, down from 42% peak within the last month. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No direct duplicate Kalshi market found; unrelated markets (polio, Bond casting) surfaced with no arbitrage signal. A Kalshi market on "Tom Holland cast as Q in Bond" prices at just 2%, indicating low market confidence in Holland-related speculative outcomes generally. - Polymarket: 18.95% YES, thin volume, declining trend. - Sportsbook implied: None found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - claude_news notes Holland's 3-film slate is a "strong structural advantage" but flags RDJ's Doctor Doom reveal and Damon's Odyssey lead as strong rival draws. - code_execution base-rate model: central estimate ~17% (range 10.3%-23.8%), suggesting Polymarket's ~19% is roughly fair, marginally below the blended estimate. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes:** Unprecedented 3-film slate, two blockbusters already released with record-breaking trailer engagement and box office; sustained Zendaya-linked publicity. - **No:** Never topped list in 4 years of data; historical winners driven by novelty/scandal, not franchise leads; RDJ's Doomsday role and Doomsday's December release (close to compilation cutoff) could dominate late-year search spike; Polymarket price falling despite films already releasing. # Gaps / unknowns - Actual google search volume data for mid/late 2026 not available in research. - No visibility into Avengers: Doomsday's post-release search impact (releases 2 weeks before window close). - Conflicting 2025 "most googled" methodologies (official Google list vs. third-party aggregators) create some noise in precedent-setting. # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price: 18.95% (down from 42% high) — primary anchor. - Base-rate model central estimate: ~17% (range 10-24%). - Precedent: 0/4 years Holland has topped list; repeat-winner base rate for this category ~12-20%.

1. Both forecasts converge almost exactly on the Polymarket anchor (17% and 19%) with no independent adjustment, essentially adding no alpha beyond the market price itself — worth flagging as herding rather than genuine synthesis of the evidence (e.g., the 718M-view trailer record and $1.824B BND gross, the highest-grossing film of 2026, are cited but never actually moved either forecast above the anchor). 2. Neither forecast interrogates *why* Polymarket fell from 42% to 19% after two Holland films already released and performed spectacularly — this is a striking anomaly (thin $18.9K volume, -23% in 30 days) that could reflect noise/manipulation in an illiquid market rather than genuine informed repricing, yet both treat it as a hard anchor rather than a weak signal warranting a wider confidence interval. 3. The historical base rate (Depp/Renner/Williams/Madison, all scandal/novelty-driven) may be a reference-class mismatch: those spikes were sudden, single-event driven near the compilation window, whereas Holland's search volume is being generated by three separate blockbuster release cycles spread across the year — neither forecaster explicitly tests whether "sustained franchise search volume" is comparable to "single scandal spike" for the purposes of Google's ranking methodology. 4. Zendaya's parallel presence across Holland's promotional campaigns (BND tour, likely Odyssey/Doomsday press) could split or cannibalize search share attributed to Holland specifically — this competing-search-share risk is mentioned in the brief but not incorporated quantitatively by either forecaster. 5. Neither forecast decomposes the Dec 18 Doomsday risk into a probability estimate for RDJ specifically beating Holland (vs. other ensemble members or unexpected breakouts) — they treat it as a generic "counterweight" without addressing that Doomsday's ensemble cast (RDJ, plus dozens of MCU actors) could just as easily dilute search attention away from any single actor, including RDJ. 6. Both forecasts near-identically ignore the "non-Western breakout" risk noted in the brief (e.g., 2025's Song Ji Woo precedent) as a real probability mass that should reduce Holland's ceiling independent of RDJ/Damon, yet this isn't reflected in any differentiated tail-risk allocation between the two forecasts.

18% (60% confidence)

Yes: 18% No: 82%

Google's official global Actors #1 has for four straight years gone to novelty/scandal/breakout figures (Depp, Renner, Katt Williams, Mikey Madison) rather than franchise leads, and Holland was absent from the 2025 global top 10 despite prior Spider-Man success — sustained blockbuster search volume spread across the year is a poor fit for a list that rewards sudden search spikes. The devil's advocate is right that the Polymarket drop from 42% to 19% on $18.9K volume is a weak, noisy signal rather than hard information, but it coincides with an independent base-rate model at ~17%, so the two converge for genuinely different reasons. Offsetting upside (record 718M-view trailer, $1.824B highest-grossing 2026 film, three release cycles) is real but is partly diluted by Zendaya splitting search share and by the global list's habit of surfacing non-Western breakouts that no forecaster can anticipate. RDJ's Doomsday spike is a modest additional threat but is diluted across a huge ensemble, so it shouldn't be weighted heavily either way. I settle essentially at the anchor, 18% Yes.

Total pipeline time: 198.3s