Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news congress_bills gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a long-horizon political market whose probability hinges almost entirely on (a) whether Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms and (b) whether a Democratic House majority would actually vote out articles of impeachment (leadership appetite, discharge petitions, existing filed resolutions). The Polymarket price is the primary anchor, cross-checked against Kalshi/Polymarket midterm-control markets and any related impeachment markets, plus base rates from Trump's two prior impeachments.

# Current state No articles of impeachment against Trump have passed the House in the 119th Congress; several have been filed and two have been forced to floor votes via privileged resolution, but both were tabled (killed) rather than passed — most recently 237-140 in December 2025, with Democratic leadership (Jeffries, Clark, Aguilar) voting "present" rather than backing impeachment. Resolution outcome hinges on whether Democrats win the House in Nov 2026 and, if so, whether leadership chooses to bring articles to a floor vote sometime before Jan 20, 2029. # Timeline of key events - 2025-01-09: Rep. M. Greene (R) files resolutions to expunge Trump's 2019/2021 impeachments — confirmed filing, symbolic. - 2025-04-29: Rep. Thanedar announces intent to impeach Trump — confirmed. - 2025-05-13/14: Thanedar files H.Res.353 (7 articles: abuse of DOGE power, tariffs, etc.); Green files H.Res.415 (05-15) — confirmed, referred to Judiciary, no floor action. - 2025-06: Green forces floor vote on revised resolution (Iran strikes/failure to consult Congress) — confirmed; tabled 344-79, with 128 Democrats joining all Republicans. - 2025-12-11: Green's H.Res.939 forced to floor vote — confirmed; GOP motion to table passed 237-140 (23 Dems voted against tabling, 47 voted present, incl. Jeffries/Clark/Aguilar). - 2026-03/04: Additional impeachment resolutions filed against cabinet officials (Bondi) and Trump (Larson H.Res.1155, 04-06) — confirmed filings, no floor votes reported. - 2026-04-23: Jeffries states impeachment "not a top priority" if Dems win House — confirmed (The Hill). - 2026-06-02: Jeffries (CNBC) says Democrats "haven't ruled anything in; we haven't ruled anything out" — confirmed. - 2026-06 (Meet the Press): Jeffries reiterates affordability-first strategy over impeachment despite AOC's calls — confirmed. - 2026-11-03 (future): 2026 midterms will determine House control for 120th Congress (2027-2029) — scheduled, not yet occurred. # Event Will the US House pass one or more articles of impeachment against Trump (simple majority) at any point before Jan 20, 2029 — Senate trial/conviction/removal NOT required. # Outcomes to forecast Yes / No # Kalshi market anchor **KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20 (this event's own ticker): 63% YES**, 90-day range 60-68%, 7d +1%, 30d -1%, avg daily volume ~1,807 contracts — the consensus anchor to beat. Polymarket mirrors this closely at 63% (7d -4%, 30d -3%, range 48.5-69%, $88.7k volume). # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket price/history**: 63% currently; ranged 48.5%-69% over 124 days, trending slightly down (-3% to -4% short-term). [polymarket_direct] 2. **Markets on Dem House control 2026**: No direct market found, but Kalshi's 2028 "Democratic Sweep" power market prices 60% (up sharply, +10pts/7d and 30d) and Speaker-Jeffries market prices 82% for Jeffries becoming next Speaker — both implying markets see Dem House control as likely. [kalshi_related] 3. **Articles filed/floor votes**: Yes — Thanedar (H.Res.353, 7 articles, May 2025) and Green (H.Res.415/537/939) filed articles; Green forced two floor votes. June 2025 vote tabled 344-79 (128 Dems joined GOP); Dec 2025 vote tabled 237-140 (only 23 Dems opposed tabling, 47 present, leadership present). No article has ever reached a clean up-or-down passage vote. [congress_bills, claude_news, wikipedia] 4. **Leadership stance**: Jeffries has repeatedly declined to commit, calling affordability/healthcare/ICE/war-powers the priority ("haven't ruled anything in; haven't ruled anything out," April-June 2026). Whip Clark explained the "present" vote as pragmatic acknowledgment Democrats are in the minority and can't force removal now, not a rejection of the case. [claude_news] 5. **Historical base rate**: Trump impeached twice (2019 Dem House, 2021 Dem House) — both times opposition-controlled House passed articles. Clinton impeached 1998 by GOP House. Nixon: House Judiciary approved articles but full House never voted (resignation preempted). So in 3 of last ~4 comparable opposition-House-vs-disliked-president situations, articles passed the House. [wikipedia] 6. **Active scandal momentum**: Iran/Venezuela strikes without congressional consultation, DOGE/executive overreach, National Guard deployments, Epstein files, and judiciary threats have all been cited in filed articles; none has yet generated majority support even among Democrats currently. No emoluments-specific push noted. [claude_news, congress_bills] 7. **Cross-venue markets**: Kalshi KXTRUMPREMOVE (impeach+removal) prices only 17% (16-22% range) — much lower than the House-passage-only market, correctly reflecting the added Senate-conviction hurdle. Cabinet impeachment market prices near 0.6%. [kalshi_related] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. [congress_bills] At least 4 distinct impeachment resolutions against Trump filed in 119th Congress (Thanedar, Green x2-3, Larson); none passed committee or full House vote. 2. [claude_news/thehill] Dec 2025 tabling vote: 237-140, Dem leadership voted "present." 3. [claude_news/nbcnews] June 2025 tabling vote: 344-79, 128 Democrats voted with Republicans to table. 4. [wikipedia] Trump was impeached twice previously (2019, 2021), both under Democratic House majorities. 5. [kalshi_related] GOP currently controls House (119th Congress); Democratic majority not guaranteed until Jan 2027 if won in Nov 2026 midterms. # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: KXTRUMPREMOVE 17% (impeach AND removal — much stricter bar); Speaker-Jeffries 82%; 2028 Dem Sweep 60% (rising sharply). - Polymarket: matches Kalshi anchor almost exactly at 63%; separate "Trump out as President by Aug 2026" market prices near 0% (0.55% YES), consistent with no removal expected soon but silent on House-only vote question. - Sportsbook implied: none found. # Analyst opinions and speculation - CNN/Hill/CNBC reporting frames Dem leadership as deliberately noncommittal, prioritizing affordability messaging over impeachment to avoid base-vs-moderate split ahead of 2026 midterms. - factually.co notes Senate conviction (67 votes) viewed as "unattainable" — irrelevant to this market's YES condition (House passage only). - code_execution decomposition model: base case ~27.6% (range 15.4-42%) for P(House passes articles), driven mainly by P(articles pass | Dem House) assumption (0.25-0.55), less by P(Dem House) itself (0.60-0.75). # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes**: Two prior impeachments under Dem majorities set precedent; strong grassroots pressure (Green, Thanedar, AOC, Tlaib) already forcing votes even in minority; Dem House majority seen as ~60-75% likely by related markets; ~2 years of runway remain after 2026 midterms. - **No**: Leadership (Jeffries) explicitly deprioritizing impeachment, citing minority status and strategic messaging; even forced votes with progressive backing failed by wide margins with leadership abstaining; GOP-controlled House pathway near-zero; market/model base case (27.6%) is well below the 63% Kalshi/Polymarket price, suggesting markets may be pricing high on 2026 Dem-takeover expectations translating directly into action. # Gaps / unknowns - No polling/forecast data on 2026 House control probability directly cited beyond Kalshi's indirect "Dem Sweep" (60%) and Speaker-Jeffries (82%) markets. - Unclear how a Dem majority's margin size would affect willingness to impeach (large vs. narrow majority). - No emoluments-specific developments found; Epstein files status unclear from this research. - GDELT tool failed (rate-limited), leaving a recent-news gap for the last ~60 days. # Calibration anchors - Kalshi current YES price (anchor): 63% (also matches Polymarket 63%). - Precedents: Trump impeached in both prior terms under Dem House control (2019, 2021); Clinton impeached 1998 under GOP House; base rate of "articles pass when opposition holds House" appears high (~75-100% historically) once majority is won — but current Dem leadership signaling is more reluctant than 2019 Pelosi-era buildup was at comparable stage.

1. Both forecasts converge on ~56-57%, nearly identical to each other despite claiming independent reasoning, and both shade only modestly (~6-7pts) below the 63% anchor even though the brief's explicit decomposition model (base case 27.6%, range 15.4-42%) is dramatically lower — neither forecaster explains why they weight the market anchor so much more heavily than their own cited quantitative model, which represents a significant unaddressed inconsistency. 2. Neither forecast grapples with the mechanistic gap highlighted in the brief: P(Dem House) at 60-75% is not the binding constraint — P(articles pass | Dem House) at only 0.25-0.55 is what drags the composite estimate down, yet both rationales cite the "long runway" and precedent without quantifying how leadership reluctance specifically discounts that conditional probability multiple times over two years. 3. Both forecasts treat the 2019/2021 precedents as strongly pro-YES base-rate evidence, but understate a key disanalogy: those impeachments followed extended committee investigations building momentum toward a vote leadership actively wanted, whereas here leadership is *already* on record suppressing forced votes with "present" abstentions — the current stage looks more like a leadership veto than a Pelosi-2019-style buildup, which the brief itself flags ("more reluctant than 2019 Pelosi-era buildup was at comparable stage"). 4. Neither forecaster addresses margin-of-majority risk explicitly flagged in the brief's gaps section — a narrow Dem majority (plausible given close 2026 midterm odds) would make leadership even more cautious about forcing a risky floor vote, especially with swing-district members exposed in 2028, yet this scenario isn't modeled or discounted. 5. Both forecasts anchor almost entirely on Kalshi/Polymarket agreement as validation, but this is circular reasoning since Polymarket "mirrors" Kalshi's own price rather than being a truly independent market signal — neither forecaster flags that the two venues may share the same crowd/information rather than representing two confirmations. 6. Neither considers that a full two-year runway (2027-2029) allows for multiple attempts and evolving scandal dynamics (e.g., further Epstein files developments, DOGE/executive overreach escalation) that could shift leadership's calculus over time — the static "leadership currently reluctant" framing may understate how second-term controversies typically compound, which could push probability higher than their current ~56-57% consensus.

55% (low-medium confidence)

Yes: 55% No: 46%

The path to YES requires two conjunctive steps: Democrats winning the House in Nov 2026 (~65-75% per related Kalshi markets) and leadership actually allowing/advancing articles to a passage vote over 2027-2028 (~55-65% given strong historical precedent of opposition Houses impeaching Trump twice, but tempered by Jeffries' explicit deprioritization and the 'present' votes that killed forced resolutions in 2025). That multiplies to roughly 42-48%, well below the 63% market anchor but above the brief's 27.6% decomposition base case, whose conditional term (0.25-0.55) understates how a two-year runway with escalating controversies and privileged-resolution mechanics tends to force the issue. I discount the market anchor more than either forecaster because Polymarket mirrors rather than independently confirms Kalshi, and because the internal inconsistency across Kalshi's own family (63% House passage vs. 17% removal implies an implausible 27% Senate-conviction conditional) suggests systematic retail YES bias in impeachment contracts. I therefore land at ~54.5% YES, below both forecasts and further below the market, while still respecting that the structural base rate favors passage once the opposition controls the chamber.

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