Tools chosen: polymarket_direct polymarket_related kalshi_related claude_news gdelt_news wikipedia code_execution

Sub-questions (Fermi decomposition)

Planner reasoning

This is a pure base-rate question: annual counts of M7.0+ quakes are roughly Poisson with mean ~14-15 (USGS long-term average ~15/yr, recent decades ~12-17), so the 11-13 bucket captures maybe 25-30% of outcomes. Key research is (a) the market's own price and the full bucket ladder on Polymarket for normalization, (b) the historical annual distribution of M7+ counts, and (c) the year-to-date 2026 count if the year is underway.

# Current state As of the latest research snapshot (news reporting through late July 2026), publicly available USGS-sourced tallies (via Wikipedia's "List of earthquakes in 2026") counted **5 earthquakes ≥M7.0** for 2026 (all M7.0–7.9, none ≥M8.0) through an April 2026 cutoff. Subsequent June–July 2026 news references significant/deadly earthquakes in Japan and the Philippines whose exact confirmed magnitudes (≥7.0 vs. sub-7.0) are not verified in the retrieved sources — actual YTD count may be modestly higher than 5. The market resolves on the USGS significant-earthquake catalog for the full 2026 calendar year; final tally not yet knowable, ~5 months of 2026 remain as of this snapshot. # Timeline of key events - 2026-03-24: M7.5 near Tonga (South Pacific) — strongest of 2026 to that point. (confirmed, AccuWeather/USGS) - 2026-03-30: M7.3 near Vanuatu (Sanma offshore, 121 km depth). (confirmed, Wikipedia/USGS) - 2026-04-01/02: Mw 7.3–7.4 Molucca Sea (Indonesia, North Maluku). (confirmed, USGS via Wikipedia) - 2026-04-20: Mw 7.4 Sanriku, Japan (thrust fault, 35 km depth). (confirmed, USGS via Wikipedia) - 2026-06-14 to 06-18: Multiple sub-M7 quakes reported (M6.3–6.8) in Indonesia, China, Philippines; Philippines quake death toll reached 65 with 36 missing — magnitude not confirmed as ≥7.0 in sources. (reported, unconfirmed magnitude) - 2026-07-21: Peru M5.5 quake, deadly but well below M7. (confirmed, sub-threshold) - 2026-07-28/30: Deadly Japan earthquake compared to 2016 Kumamoto (M7.0); mall collapse, 13 dead. Magnitude not explicitly confirmed ≥7.0 in retrieved text. (reported, unconfirmed magnitude — flagged as a gap) # Event Resolves YES if USGS records 11–13 earthquakes of M7.0+ worldwide in calendar year 2026 (No otherwise, per Kalshi's binary Yes/No framing of the 11–13 bucket). # Outcomes to forecast - Yes (11–13 M7.0+ quakes in 2026) - No (any other count) # Kalshi market anchor No direct Kalshi price returned for this ticker in tool output; Polymarket is the primary cross-venue proxy. **Polymarket current YES price: 18.5%**, down from a 30-day high of 36% (7d: -1.5pp, 30d: -6pp), on $414K volume — market has been trending down, suggesting fading confidence in a mid-range 2026 outcome (consistent with slower-than-average pace early in 2026). # Sub-question answers 1. **Polymarket 11-13 price / adjacent buckets** — Only the 11-13 bucket itself was retrieved (18.5% YES); no adjacent-bucket (≤10, 14-16, 17+) data was returned by tools. [polymarket_direct] 2. **Historical distribution 1990-2025** — Full-period (1990-2024) mean ≈14.97/yr (σ=3.69); ~31% of years (11/35) fell in 11-13. Last-10-yr mean ≈13.80/yr but only 20% (2/10) landed in 11-13, indicating increased variance/overdispersion in recent years. [code_execution; USGS/Wikipedia-derived] 3. **2026 YTD count** — At least 5 confirmed M7.0+ events through ~April 2026 (Tonga M7.5, Vanuatu M7.3, Molucca Sea M7.3-7.4, Sanriku Japan M7.4); possibly more from unconfirmed June-July events. Roughly 5-7 months of 2026 remain as of research snapshot. [claude_news/Wikipedia] 4. **Poisson P(11-13)** — Using λ=13.8 (10-yr mean): ~29.7%; λ=14.8 (20-yr mean): ~25.4%; λ=14.97 (full period): ~24.6%. Blended baseline estimate ~25-30%, likely understating true probability due to observed overdispersion. [code_execution] 5. **USGS catalog ambiguity** — USGS "significant earthquake" list and standard ≥M7.0 catalog searches are generally consistent, but magnitude revisions (e.g., initial 6.9 revised to 7.0, or vice versa) can shift borderline events into/out of the count; this is a known source of resolution ambiguity near thresholds. [inferred, no direct tool confirmation] 6. **Comparable Kalshi markets** — No exact Kalshi 2026 global count market found; related Kalshi markets are single-event/threshold quake bets (California ≥8.0 before 2028/2035: 14%/32%; Japan ≥8.0 before 2030: 40%), not directly comparable distributions. [kalshi_related] # Key facts (high-confidence, factual) 1. USGS long-term average (since ~1900): ~16 major quakes/year, ~15 in M7-range + ~1 M8+. [USGS FAQ] 2. 2015 had 19 M7+ quakes; USGS then cited long-term average ~18/yr. [USGS 2015 release] 3. 2010 was the peak year with 23-24 M7+ quakes; 1989 had only 6. [USGS FAQ] 4. 2025 had 16 major M7+ events including the Mw8.8 Kamchatka quake. [Wikipedia] 5. 2024 was unusually quiet: only 99 M6+ quakes total, lowest since 1982, and zero ≥M8 for third straight year. [Wikipedia] # Cross-market signals - Kalshi related: No matching 11-13 bucket market found; adjacent single-threshold markets (CA/Japan M8+) imply no direct arbitrage signal. - Polymarket: 18.5% YES, declining trend (36% high → 18.5%), consistent with market pricing a lower-than-mid-range 2026 outcome as the year progresses with a modest pace so far. - Sportsbook implied: N/A (not applicable to this category). # Analyst opinions and speculation - code_execution model flags recent-decade overdispersion (var/mean up to 1.57), implying fatter tails than pure Poisson — true P(11-13) may sit modestly above naive Poisson estimates but below the historical empirical average. - claude_news synthesis notes 2026 "tracking well below" the 16-18/yr historical average through its snapshot, though acknowledges much of the year remains. # Directional lean per outcome - **Yes (11-13)**: Supported by historical base rate (~20-31% of years) and current pace plausibly being on a below-average trajectory that could land in-range; opposed by Polymarket's declining price (18.5%) and possible undercount risk given unconfirmed additional 2026 events. - **No**: Supported by Polymarket pricing this outcome at only 18.5% (implying ~81.5% chance of falling outside 11-13); historically only ~1-in-3 years land in this specific 3-count band, and the "No" side spans a much wider count range (0-10, 14+), mechanically favoring No. # Gaps / unknowns - Exact confirmed 2026 YTD M7.0+ count beyond April is unclear; June-July Japan/Philippines quakes have uncertain confirmed magnitudes. - No adjacent Polymarket bucket prices (≤10, 14-16, 17+) retrieved to triangulate full distribution. - No live Kalshi YES price was returned for this specific ticker (only Polymarket data available as proxy). # Calibration anchors - Polymarket YES price (proxy anchor): 18.5%, trending down from 36% high. - Poisson/empirical blended base rate: ~25-30% (pre-conditioning on 2026 YTD data). - Precedent: over 1990-2025, only ~31% of years fell in the 11-13 band; most years cluster higher (14-19) or occasionally lower (single digits).

1. Both forecasters converge almost identically (23-24% Yes) despite claiming independent reasoning paths (gamma-Poisson update vs. general blending), suggesting insufficient diagnostic diversity and possible anchoring bias toward the Polymarket 18.5% figure rather than genuinely independent estimation. 2. Neither forecast adequately grapples with the reporting-lag confound: the brief notes YTD count "may be modestly higher than 5" due to unconfirmed June/July Japan and Philippines quakes, yet both treat the 5-7 confirmed count as a reliable signal of a genuine slowdown rather than partly an artifact of data-verification lag — this could bias both toward under-forecasting Yes. 3. The reference-class choice is inconsistently justified: the brief flags that the last-10-year empirical hit rate for 11-13 is only 20% (2/10) versus the full 35-year rate of 31% (11/35), reflecting "increased variance/overdispersion in recent years," but neither forecaster explicitly picks or blends these rates with a clear rationale, instead citing "20-31%" as a vague range. 4. Neither forecast addresses magnitude-threshold resolution ambiguity in a narrow 3-count bucket — the brief explicitly warns that "magnitude revisions... can shift borderline events into/out of the count," which is especially consequential for a tight band like 11-13 versus a mechanically simpler ≤10 or ≥14 outcome, yet this uncertainty isn't reflected in wider forecast variance or discussion. 5. Both forecasts uncritically treat Polymarket's 18.5% as a strong anchor for the Kalshi market despite the brief noting "No direct Kalshi price returned" and Polymarket's modest $414K volume with a sharp 36%→18.5% swing in 30 days — neither questions whether this volatile, thinly-traded proxy might be overreacting to noisy YTD news rather than reflecting a stable consensus. 6. Neither model explicitly considers the tail scenario where unconfirmed June-July events (Philippines 65 dead, Japan mall collapse compared to M7.0 Kumamoto) both get confirmed as ≥M7.0, which alone would push the YTD count to 7, materially raising the odds of landing in 11-13 or even exceeding it — this plausible upside path is underweighted in both rationales.

26% (low-medium confidence)

Yes: 26% No: 74%

The 11–13 band is a narrow 3-count window against a long-run rate of ~14–15/yr, so 'No' is mechanically favored (it spans both ≤10 and ≥14); empirical base rates give 20–31% and Poisson/gamma-Poisson baselines 25–30%. The critique's key point has merit: 5 confirmed M7.0+ through April is roughly a 15/yr pace, not a genuine slowdown, and unconfirmed June–July Japan/Philippines events could push YTD to ~7 — a Bayesian update on this evidence yields a posterior annual rate near 13–15 and P(11–13) ≈ 27–35%, above both forecasters' 23–24%. Offsetting this, the Polymarket proxy at 18.5% (down from 36%) reflects fresher YTD information than the brief and plausibly signals the count drifting out of the band on one side, and threshold/revision ambiguity adds noise that hurts a tight bucket more than the wide complement. Blending the proxy market anchor with the somewhat more favorable structural model, I settle modestly above both prior forecasts at 26% Yes.

Total pipeline time: 298.4s