What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day during November 2026?

- [2026-10-16] The resolution sheet (PLATracker "Taiwan ADIZ Violations", tab "Daily Totals", column "Total Aircraft Tracked in ADIZ") was readable through its public CSV export. Its last row is 10/16/2026, with a value of 0 and cumulative day count 2229. The sheet's header block gives the all-time highest single-day total as 111. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g
- [2026-10-16] Sheet values for 6–15 Oct 2026 were 9, 1, 2, 13, 5, 4, 4, 9, 13 and 8. The October maximum so far is 13 (Oct 9 and Oct 14). The 10/16 entry of 0 looks incomplete. CNA reports that the MND's 6 a.m. Oct 16 to 6 a.m. Oct 17 window had 9 sorties, 5 of them across the median line. This is likely a lag or a date-convention difference. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g and https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx
- [2026-09-30] Sheet values for September 2026 include 24 on Sep 17, 17 on Sep 16, 16 on Sep 30 and 13 on Sep 18. The September maximum visible in the pulled rows is 24. I did not see the Sep 1–13 rows, and MND reported 20 sorties in a joint combat readiness patrol on Sep 5. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g and https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-heightened-chinese-military-activity-around-its-territory16020260905130516/
- [2025-11-30] **Value one year ago (Nov 2025):** the sheet's maximum was 31 on Nov 6 2025. The next highest days were 25 (Nov 29), 23 (Nov 28), 18 (Nov 13) and 17 (Nov 14, 15 and 20). Nov 2025 total was about 266. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g
- [2026-10-16] 2026 is a "pullback" year. The 2026 year-to-date total is 1,528 ADIZ aircraft, with a daily average of 5.3. The 2026 peak day is 32 on Feb 12. The 30-day total is 167, which is up 35% on the prior 30 days (124). The first seven months of 2026 were 52% below the same period of 2025. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/
- [2026-10-02] AEI/PLATracker put September 2026 at 181 incursions, lower than in 2024–25. Another aggregator, which carries the same MND data, gives 165–167 for rolling 30-day windows. https://political.org/china-taiwan-tracker/
- [2025-12-29] Recent tail risk: the Justice Mission-2025 drills on Dec 29, 2025 produced 90 ADIZ aircraft in a day (MND reported about 130 sorties in total). 2025 peak days by month ranged from 23 (Oct) to 47 (Aug), apart from the December spike. 2025 total was 3,762. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/adiz-violations/2025/
- [2026-07-23] The most recent named PLA drill found was two-day live-fire drills off Dongshan Island on 23–24 July 2026. I found no large 2026 encirclement exercise. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/
- [2026-10-18] MND's latest daily report (6 a.m. Oct 17 to 6 a.m. Oct 18) shows 2 sorties, both entering the ADIZ. The report for the previous day shows 9 sorties, 5 of them crossing the median line. https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory20261018065235/
- [2026-10-09] The Oct 9 report covered a joint combat readiness patrol with 19 aircraft detected, 13 of them crossing the median line. The Oct 6 patrol had 14 aircraft, 9 of them crossing. Joint combat readiness patrols are occurring about weekly or more often. https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/3064057/taiwan-deteta-19-aeronaves-militares-chinesas-nas-vesperas-do-dia-nacional
- [Release timing] MND publishes a report daily around 9 a.m. Taiwan time, covering 6 a.m. to 6 a.m. The sheet credits each report to the day the window began, per the aggregator's methodology note. The sheet lags by about 1–2 days. The November 2026 data will be complete after Dec 1 2026. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/

BOTTOM LINE: In 2026 the single-day maximum has been about 13–24 in recent months, with a 2026 peak of 32. Nov 2025 peaked at 31, and November 2026 would need an exercise-scale event to exceed the mid-20s to low-30s.

NOT FOUND: Monthly maximums for Jan–Aug 2026 from the sheet. The sheet's rows for Sep 1–13 2026. Any announced PLA exercise or trigger event scheduled for November 2026. A direct MND page fetch.

I could not open the PLATracker sheet (HTTP 401), so the figures below come from secondary trackers that say they compile PLATracker and MND data. I could not find Nov 2023 or Nov 2024 single-day peaks.

- [2026-10-18] **2026 is a low-activity year.** Jan 1–Aug 9, 2026 had 1,200 ADIZ aircraft, against 2,501 in the same window of 2025, a 52% drop. Monthly 2026 ADIZ totals ran 121–216, against 222–392 in 2025. The 2024 record of 111 in a day still stands. https://www.globalmilitary.net/news/pla-air-activity-around-taiwan-halved-in-2026/ (search snippet; page returned 403 on fetch)
- [2026-10-18] **2026 peak day to date is 32.** The 2026 phase has a daily average of 5.3, a peak of 32 on Feb 12, 2026, and 1,428 aircraft in total. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/ (search snippet)
- [2025-11-30] **Nov 2025: total 266, daily average 8.9, peak 31 on 6 Nov.** This was a quiet month with no exercise. The PLATracker-derived page lists the 2025 monthly peaks as Jan 27, Feb 34, Mar 43, Apr 37, May 34, Jun 46, Jul 45, Aug 47, Sep 26, Oct 23, Nov 31, Dec 90. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/adiz-violations/2025/
- [2025-12-05] **Nov 2025 was below trend.** ISW/AEI reported 266 ADIZ incursions in Nov 2025, against a post-May 2024 monthly average of 321. It suggested seasonal weather as a possible cause, since incursions were also low in the same period of 2024. https://www.aei.org/articles/china-taiwan-update-december-5-2025/
- [2025-12-29] **The largest surprise in the last 12 months was Dec 29, 2025, with 90 aircraft.** This was the Justice Mission-2025 blockade drill, which came after a November peak of only 31. Another ISW/AEI source puts 125 sorties in the two days of the drill. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/adiz-violations/2025/ ; https://www.aei.org/articles/china-taiwan-update-january-2-2026/
- [2024-10-14] **Record single day: 111 ADIZ aircraft** (153 detected around Taiwan) during Joint Sword-2024B. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-increased-military-activities-indo-pacific-2025/
- [2024-11] **Nov 2024 was reported as high.** Jamestown says Nov–Dec 2024 incursions were "significantly larger" than typical 2021–23 months. I could not find the Nov 2024 peak day. https://jamestown.org/military-implications-of-pla-aircraft-incursions-in-taiwans-airspace-2024/
- [2024-11-05] **Example Nov 2024 daily report: 20 aircraft detected, 16 crossed the median line.** https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20241105/4252781.html
- [2023-11] **Late Nov 2023 daily MND counts were low.** Aircraft detected around Taiwan were 6–14 per day (14 on Nov 29, with 5 in or crossing into the ADIZ). The Nov 2023 monthly peak is not shown. https://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/todays-missile-threat/taiwan-missile-updates/
- [2025-12 context] **Jamestown's seasonal view.** It says the PLA's annual training plans mostly finish by November, so scale and frequency are lower then. It defines a "peak incursion day" as 30 or more aircraft; there were 28 such days in 2023 and 32 in 2024. https://jamestown.org/military-implications-of-pla-aircraft-incursions-in-taiwans-airspace-2024/
- [2026-10-09 to 10-18] **October 2026 daily counts so far.** All figures are aircraft sorties detected around Taiwan, not the ADIZ-only column. Oct 9: 19 detected, 13 crossed the median line. Oct 15: 15 sorties, 13 across the median line. Oct 17: 9 sorties, 5 across. Oct 18: 2 sorties. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610150041.aspx ; https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx ; https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory20261018065235/
- [2026] **Historical high-days by phase** (secondary tracker): 56 on Oct 4, 2021; 54 on Apr 10, 2023 (the Wikipedia page puts the Dec 26, 2022 peak at a record 71 at that time); 111 on Oct 14, 2024. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/

BOTTOM LINE: The only November single-day maximum I could confirm is 31 in 2025 (6 Nov), and that was a quiet, no-exercise month. 2026 air activity is about half of 2025's, with a year-to-date peak of 32. A November 2026 maximum in the 20s to 30s looks like the baseline. Exercises, such as the Dec 2025 day of 90, are the main upside risk, and I found none announced for November.

NOT FOUND: The PLATracker sheet itself (HTTP 401). November daily maxima for 2023 and 2024. Any forecast-accuracy record for this metric. Any announced PLA exercise for November 2026.

- [2026-10-16] MND officials were asked on Oct 15 whether a large encirclement drill could come in the PLA's "November-to-December peak season." Their answer was non-committal: they are monitoring and on high alert. Taipei Times notes that at least one large drill was held every year from 2023 to 2025, and that the PLA has held none so far in 2026. So the "annual large drill" is overdue, and it is the main driver of any tail outcome. Whether it falls in November or December is the key unknown. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057
- [2026-10-16] The Liaoning carrier group began "routine" western Pacific drills on Oct 14. This is a possible precursor, but it is not a named Taiwan exercise. Same Taipei Times article. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057
- [2026-10-14] TSM weekly for Oct 5–11 shows 34 ADIZ aircraft for the week, against 56 detected in total. The 21-aircraft patrol day on Oct 9 is therefore a detection figure. The ADIZ column the question uses is lower than the headline detections; the sheet's value for that day was 13. China issued no-sail notices for live-fire drills from Oct 12 to 17, and no named exercise has followed. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october
- [2026-10-07] The Sept 30 patrol gave 23 detected aircraft, 16 of them in the ADIZ. TSM counts it as the third patrol in 11 days (Sep 30, Oct 6, Oct 9). Patrol cadence is rising into the new quarter. Typical patrol-day ADIZ counts are 13–17, not 25 or more. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september-f35
- [2025-11-15] Nov 2025 patrol benchmarks from MND releases: 20 sorties on Nov 6 (13 crossed the median line) and 26 on Nov 15 (17 crossed). The sheet's Nov 6 value of 31 is a full-day count that adds non-patrol aircraft. This shows how a routine-patrol November can reach about 30 without any drill. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2025/taiwan-251115-roc-mnd02.htm
- [2026-05-19] The 2026 patrol benchmarks are 22 sorties on May 19 (11 across the median line) and 20 on Sep 5 (12 across). Patrols in 2026 are therefore generally smaller than in 2025. Taking the Nov 2025 patrols at 20–26 sorties, the Nov 2026 patrol ceiling is probably similar or lower. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2026/taiwan-260519-roc-mnd02.htm
- [2026-09-29] TSM describes PLA air tempo as correlated with US–China summitry. Flights were paused before the Xi–Trump summit and did not rebound afterwards. The Nov 18–19 APEC meeting (from the colleague report) is a further dampener for roughly Nov 10–20. Late November, after APEC, is the more plausible window for a spike. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly
- [2026-10-16] The ISW/AEI update of Oct 16 flags the US–Japan "Keen Sword" exercise, with anti-ship missiles to be deployed to Yonaguni. It treats this as a PLA concern. Keen Sword is a possible trigger or cover for a PLA reaction. https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-october-16-2026/
- [2026-08-31] The Taiwan MND annual threat report (via Reuters) cites a "rising unpredictability" in Beijing's decisions after an unprecedented purge of senior officers. It says that all recent drills rehearse blockade of sea lanes. This raises the variance of outcomes, but it gives no date or trigger. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/taiwan-says-unpredictable-china-strengthens-124919731.html
- [2026-10-18] The Oct 16–17 and Oct 17–18 MND windows were 9 and 2 sorties, and all 2 on Oct 17–18 entered the ADIZ. Daily ADIZ counts swing between 0 and about 15 outside patrol days. The monthly maximum is therefore set by a single patrol day or a drill day, and it is not a smooth trend. https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory20261018065235/
- [2026-10-11] Taiwan political calendar: the local elections are in late Nov 2026, based on the mayoral race coverage. A named drill before the election is not signalled in any source I found. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057

BOTTOM LINE: The November maximum depends on two things. The first is whether a single patrol day reaches the high teens to mid-20s, which is the baseline. The second is whether the overdue 2026 large drill falls in November rather than December, with APEC on Nov 18–19 acting as a damper and late November as the riskier window. A drill would put the maximum at 40 to 100 or more, while the ADIZ-only count on ordinary patrol days sits well below detection totals.

NOT FOUND: Any announced PLA named exercise or NOTAM for November 2026. Daily sheet values for Nov 2023 and Nov 2024. The exact date of the Taiwan local elections. The sheet itself, which I did not open.

I found no formal consensus forecast, prediction-market contract or community percentile for the November 2026 single-day maximum. The closest evidence is monthly peak-day data from analysts, plus context on the November calendar. Note that the resolution column counts aircraft *in the ADIZ*, which is lower than the total sorties detected on the same day.

- [2026-10-18] **Recent days.** MND counted 2 sorties in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on Oct 18, and 9 sorties on the preceding day (5 crossed the median line). Oct 14–15 saw 15 sorties (13 crossed). Oct 9 saw 19 aircraft (13 crossed). Oct 7 saw 14. All were joint-readiness-patrol-type days. The Oct 9 report did not give an ADIZ-entry figure. https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20261018/4512290.html
- [2026-10-17] CNA, citing MND, confirms 9 aircraft sorties for Oct 16 to Oct 17, with 5 crossing the median line. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx
- [2026-10-02] **September total.** ISW/AEI report 181 ADIZ incursions in September. They call this "similar to the average monthly volume for 2026" and well below 2024 and 2025. They assess the decline as likely a strategy adjustment rather than seasonal. https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-october-2-2026/
- [2026-09-16] **Peak-day pattern, TSM data.** The Taiwan Security Monitor (TSM, George Mason University) lists the largest single-day total of detected aircraft in each month of 2026. These are all-aircraft figures, so ADIZ counts would be somewhat lower.
  - January: 34.
  - March: 36.
  - May: 29.
  - June: 32.
  - August: 21.
  - March and August were the lowest-volume months (173 and 171 sorties). The 2026 peak-day range so far is about 21–36 aircraft. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update
- [2026-09-16] **August detail.** The August 4 patrol had 21 aircraft with 17 ADIZ entries. The August 18 day had 20 aircraft with 15 ADIZ entries. TSM wrote that August's patrols were "smaller than any JCRP earlier in 2026". https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update/
- [2026-09-29] **Late-September lull.** TSM weekly: 36 aircraft for Sept 21–27, down from 99 the week before. Daily detections peaked at 10 and fell to 2 on the day of the Xi–Trump summit. TSM wrote that the "anticipated post-summit rebound" did not materialize. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly
- [2026-09-29] **Mid-September.** TSM weekly: Sept 16 saw 20 aircraft, and Sept 17–19 saw 17, 18 and 19 aircraft. TSM describes a "pre-summit stand-down pattern": Beijing raises air activity around major events and lowers it when managing diplomacy. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september
- [2026-10-14] **November calendar.** Trump and Xi are due to meet Nov 18–19 at APEC in Shenzhen, and a trade truce expires Jan 10. In May, PLA air activity fell to zero during the Beijing summit (TSM). Diplomatic events have therefore damped activity. https://ncuscr.substack.com/p/shenzhen-apec-planning-continues
- [2026-09-28] **Tail risk.** The single-day record is 111 aircraft inside the ADIZ (Oct 14, 2024, Joint Sword-2024B). Justice Mission-2025 on Dec 29, 2025 produced about 130 sorties. The ADIZ-only count is probably lower. The capability for such surges "is intact", per Global Military's summary of MND data. No large named drill has occurred in 2026 in the sources I found. https://www.globalmilitary.net/news/pla-air-activity-around-taiwan-halved-in-2026/
- [2026-09-28] **Weekly baseline.** The Global Military tracker had 18 ADIZ aircraft in the seven days to Sept 28. That puts the week in the 28th percentile since 2020. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/
- [2026-08-17] **Markets.** The only market data I found concerns invasion or blockade, not ADIZ counts. Polymarket "China invades Taiwan by end-2026" was about 4% Yes in mid-August. This is consistent with no large-scale operation being expected. https://predictiongenius.io/markets/geo-invade-china-taiwan-eoy-2026
- [2026-10-18] **Maritime escalation.** Coast Guard data show 244 Chinese vessels around Taiwan last month, versus 55 in June. Pressure is shifting toward maritime and civilian-ship activity while air tempo is subdued. https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/world-news-taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory-7648643.html

BOTTOM LINE: Analyst data show 2026 peak days of roughly 20–36 aircraft per month, with ADIZ-only counts somewhat lower. Activity is subdued, and the APEC summit on Nov 18–19 is a probable damper, so a typical November maximum looks like the low-to-mid 20s. A rare surge to 60–130 would require an unforeshadowed named exercise, and I found no forecast or market pricing one.

NOT FOUND: any prediction-market or Metaculus community forecast on the November maximum; any analyst point estimate for the November peak; a TSM or other tally of past forecast accuracy; the PLATracker spreadsheet's daily "Total Aircraft Tracked in ADIZ" values (the sheet was not opened); November 2025's daily maximum; and the Reuters Aug 31 article, which was blocked.

- [2026-10-15] MND said it is watching for a large-scale encirclement drill as the PLA's "November–December peak season" nears. It said the PLA has not staged one in 2026. CNA notes at least one was held each year from 2023 to 2025, so a 2026 drill is overdue by that pattern. This is the main route to a high outcome. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610150010
- [2026-10-16] Taipei Times, citing the MND briefing: the Liaoning carrier group began "routine drills" in the western Pacific on Oct 14. Carrier activity can come with extra air sorties, but ADIZ counts usually stay modest. It is a possible precursor, not a confirmed trigger. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057
- [2026-10-14] TSM weekly for Oct 5–11: 34 aircraft entered the ADIZ in the week, up 26% on the 27 the week before. Three joint combat readiness patrols fell within 11 days (Sep 30, Oct 6, Oct 9). TSM gives 21 aircraft for Oct 9, against 19 in the earlier report, and 16 ADIZ entries on Sep 30. Patrol tempo is rising from the September lull. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october
- [2026-10-14] After Lai's Oct 10 speech, Beijing responded only verbally (TAO, defence ministry). Live-fire no-sail notices (Oct 12–20) cover the Bohai, Yellow, East China and South China Seas, none around Taiwan. Defence Minister Koo's preliminary view is coastal artillery drills. No named exercise followed Lai's speech. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10/12/asia-pacific/taiwan-monitoring-china-drills/ and https://hongkongfp.com/2026/10/12/taiwan-preparing-for-the-worst-as-china-begins-live-fire-drills/
- [2026-08-31] Taiwan's MND annual threat report, via Reuters, says Beijing is increasingly "unpredictable" because of an "unprecedented" purge of senior officers. It says China is "strengthening its control" of the air and sea through combat readiness patrols. Unpredictability widens the tail, though it is not a trigger. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/taiwan-says-unpredictable-china-strengthens-124919731.html
- [2026-01-0x] Justice Mission-2025 numbers behind the Dec 29, 2025 headline: 130 sorties on day 1, of which 90 crossed the centerline. Day 2 had 71 sorties, of which 35 crossed. So a named drill gives roughly 35–90+ ADIZ aircraft on its peak day, far above any non-drill day in 2026 (peak 32). Dotson's piece says the exercise was a response to a US arms package, though it had been planned. https://globaltaiwan.org/2026/01/pla-justice-mission-2025/
- [2026-10-14] Possible triggers: the roughly $14B US arms package is frozen, and nothing has been notified to Congress, so an arms-sale trigger is currently absent. The Trump–Xi APEC meeting on Nov 18–19 is another reason for Beijing to hold back. Lai has no US transit planned. The CRS notes he has not yet transited the continental US as president. If the freeze lifted or the APEC meeting collapsed, risk would rise. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october and https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12371
- [2026-10-07] Joint combat readiness patrol peaks are drifting up. Sep 30 had 23 aircraft detected (16 in the ADIZ), and Oct 9 had 21. TSM says the PLA's pattern is to pause flights before a summit and resume afterwards. A post-APEC rebound, from Nov 20 onward, could produce a patrol day in the high 20s to 30s. The ADIZ-column maximum would likely be in the 20s. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september-f35
- [2026-10-18] Local elections in Taiwan are close (candidates are campaigning). Maritime pressure is escalating while air activity is held down. Together with the MND report, this suggests Beijing is choosing non-air tools. A high-air scenario needs a deliberate switch back. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610150010

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is a named encirclement drill in the Nov–Dec "peak season". One has been held every year since 2023 and none has happened in 2026. If it occurs in November, ADIZ-column counts of about 35–90+ are plausible. Without one, the maximum stays in the 20s to low 30s. The Nov 18–19 APEC summit and the frozen arms package both reduce the near-term trigger risk.

NOT FOUND: any announced or leaked PLA exercise for November; the Reuters article body (only the summary was visible); a Nov 2024 single-day peak; the TSM full post text (paywalled).

- [2026-09-16] TSM's August 2026 snapshot (fetched) gives the low-end analogue. August's largest day was 21 aircraft detected, with 17 in the ADIZ. The month had 171 sorties, 125 of them in the ADIZ, and it tied March as the lowest month of 2026. After the first week, the tempo collapsed, and four days had zero aircraft. The biggest patrol was the smallest of 2026. The ADIZ-only maximum can therefore sit well below the all-aircraft figure. https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update/
- [2026-07 to 2026-09] Joint combat readiness patrol (JCRP) ADIZ entries in 2026 tend to run at about 7–25. They were 20, 17 and 22 in July (TSM), 17 and 7 in August, and 25 on June 3. Sept 30 had 16 in the ADIZ (23 detected). A November without an exercise would plausibly peak at about 15–25 in the ADIZ column. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-july-2026-update ; https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september-f35
- [2026-10-14] TSM's week of Oct 5–11 had 56 aircraft detected, with 34 in the ADIZ. Patrol days had 14 aircraft (Oct 6) and 21 (Oct 9). The week's activity days were uneven, and Oct 3–5 had zero aircraft. Taiwan's air activity has a bimodal pattern: zero-to-single-digit days punctuated by one or two patrol days. The monthly maximum therefore depends on one patrol, and a smaller patrol brings it down. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october
- [2026-09-29] After the Sept 24 Xi–Trump meeting, TSM reported a pre-summit stand-down pattern. Aircraft detections reached only 10 per day during Sept 21–27, and the expected rebound did not happen. Two more leader meetings are set: APEC Shenzhen on Nov 18–19 and the G20 in Miami in December. Beijing may again suppress activity before and around Nov 18–19. That removes about a week from the usable window. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly ; https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/what-actually-happened-xi-trump-summit
- [2026-06-04] Analyst K. Tristan Tang notes that each January–May 2026 monthly sortie total was the lowest for that month since January 2023, and that no single day in May recorded a high figure. The truncated post is a lead only, and I could not open it. Ratio logic: August 2026 sorties were 69% below August 2025, which suggests the Nov 2025 peak of 31 is a high comparator. https://x.com/KTristanTang/status/2072614046051049675
- [2026-06 to 2026-08] Typhoon and weather effects can suppress days. Typhoon Bavi cut July 9–14 to 11 aircraft in total. November has northeast-monsoon weather, and ISW/AEI had cited seasonality for the low Nov 2025. Both are mild downward factors. https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-july-2026-update/
- [2026-10-14] The most recent primary MND report fetched (Oct 13–14) showed 9 aircraft, all 9 in the ADIZ. A 9-sortie day had a 100% ADIZ share, so on lower-tempo days the ADIZ and total columns converge. The all-aircraft figures from the prior reports are therefore a reasonable proxy, and the ADIZ discount applies mainly to patrol days. https://air.mnd.gov.tw/en/News/News_Detail.aspx?CID=214&ID=59309
- [2026-10-18] The Chinese shift to maritime and government-ship pressure (244 vessels in September) reduces the need for a large air show. The Oct 16 AEI/ISW update shows no announced PLA exercise. Its main new item is the US–Japan Keen Sword deployment of anti-ship missiles to Yonaguni, which is a possible trigger but not one tied to November. https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-october-16-2026/
- [2026-10-11] The CFR tracker's latest items are sanctions on Latin American ministers over Taiwan ties and a US-China détente framing. They show no escalation trigger for a large exercise. The tracker also says US officials see an invasion as unlikely before 2028. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-over-taiwan
- [2026-10-18] The Oct 16 and 17 reports (9 and 2 sorties) show a post-National-Day decline already under way. The sheet's maximum so far in October is 13, per the colleagues' report. October's TSM-style patrol maximum (21 detected, about 13 in the ADIZ) is below the 2026 patrol norm. A downward trend from Sept 16–17 (24 in the ADIZ) through October is consistent with a November peak in the high teens. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx

BOTTOM LINE: The low path is a November with no named drill, a pre-APEC stand-down and small patrols like August's. That would give an ADIZ-column maximum of about 13–20, possibly the low teens. I found nothing that is likely to push the maximum below about 10, because JCRPs have occurred about weekly.

NOT FOUND: The PLATracker sheet itself was not opened by me. I found no November 2026 ADIZ data, no announced exercise, and no forecast for November. The Tang X post was truncated. I could not find the daily ADIZ values for Nov 2023 or Nov 2024.

12 AskNews articles (newest first; 4 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-18] Taiwan Detects PLA Aircraft and Vessels Breaching Air Defence Identification Zone
LatestLY — https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/world-news-taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory-7648643.html
  - On October 18, 2026, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defence confirmed that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military operations near Taiwan's territory.
  - Defence officials reported that 2 PLA aircraft sorties and 5 People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels crossed the traditional buffer zone and entered Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the northern and central sectors up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) on Sunday.
  - In response, the Republic of China Armed Forces (ROCA) deployed joint combat air patrols, naval ships, and land-based missile systems to track the operations.
  - This followed a significant increase in activity on Saturday, where 9 PLA aircraft sorties, 6 PLAN vessels, and 8 official ships were detected, with 5 aircraft crossing the median line into the northern, central, and southwestern ADIZ sectors.
  - According to data from Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration, 244 Chinese vessels were detected in the waters around Taiwan last month, a sharp rise from 55 in June and 30 in May.
  - Ryan D.
  - Martinson of the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute noted that the increasing involvement of civilian research vessels, which can share data with the military, represents an unprecedented scale of operations aimed at asserting jurisdiction and placing pressure on Taiwan's leadership.

[2026-10-18] Taiwan Detects PLA Aircraft and Vessels Crossing ADIZ Amid Escalating Maritime Activity
Webindia123.com — https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20261018/4512290.html
  - On October 18, 2026, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported that the People's Republic of China (PLA) conducted 2 sorties of aircraft and deployed 5 People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels, along with 9 official ships, operating around Taiwan's territory up to 6 a.m. (UTC+8) on Sunday.
  - Defense officials confirmed that both aircraft sorties crossed the traditional median line and entered Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over its northern and central regions.
  - In response, the Republic of China (ROC) Armed Forces deployed joint combat air patrols, naval ships, and land-based missile systems to track the operations.
  - This follows a significant escalation reported on Saturday, where 9 PLA aircraft sorties, 6 PLAN vessels, and 8 official ships were detected, with 5 aircraft penetrating the northern, central, and southwestern ADIZ sectors.
  - According to data from Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA), 244 Chinese vessels were detected in waters around Taiwan last month, compared to 55 in June and 30 in May.
  - Ryan D.
  - Martinson of the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute noted that while the tactic of using civilian research vessels is not new, the current scale is unprecedented, serving to assert jurisdiction and place pressure on Taiwan's leadership.

[2026-10-17] Taiwan Military Detects 23 Chinese Assets in Taiwan Strait Amidst Increased Activity
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx
  - According to Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, from 6:00 AM yesterday (October 16) to 6:00 AM today (October 17, 2026), the Taiwanese military detected a total of 23 Chinese aircraft, warships, and government vessels operating around the Taiwan Strait.
  - This total includes 9 aircraft sorties (5 of which crossed the median line into northern, central, and southwestern airspace), 6 warships, and 8 government vessels.
  - Specifically, between 9:10 AM and 5:45 PM on October 16, the military detected 5 Chinese combat aircraft and helicopters in the Taiwan Strait airspace, with 1 crossing the median line.
  - Additionally, 3 auxiliary aircraft were detected in the southwestern airspace between 8:45 AM and 7:40 PM on October 16, and 1 helicopter was detected in the northern airspace within the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) between 4:40 PM and 6:30 PM on October 16.
  - The Ministry of Defense stated that the Taiwanese military is utilizing mission aircraft, naval vessels, and shore-based missile systems to monitor and respond to these activities.

[2026-10-15] Taiwan Ministry of Defense Reports 32 PLA Assets Detected in Taiwan Strait Activities
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610150041.aspx
  - According to the Taiwan Ministry of Defense (國防部), from 6:00 AM yesterday (October 14, 2026) to 6:00 AM today (October 15, 2026), the Taiwanese military detected a total of 32 PLA assets operating around the Taiwan Strait, comprising 15 aircraft sorties and 17 vessels (10 warships and 7 public service vessels).
  - Specifically, 13 of the 15 aircraft sorties crossed the median line into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern airspace.
  - The Ministry of Defense stated that starting at 9:30 AM yesterday, 13 PLA aircraft were detected, with 11 crossing the median line in coordination with ships under the guise of 'joint readiness patrols' to harass Taiwan's surrounding airspace and waters.
  - Detailed tracking data shows that between 7:45 AM and 7:00 PM yesterday, 11 PLA aircraft (including main/auxiliary combat aircraft, drones, and helicopters) were detected in the Taiwan Strait airspace, with 9 crossing the median line.
  - Additionally, 3 auxiliary combat aircraft were detected in the southwestern airspace between 8:45 AM and 9:30 PM yesterday, and 1 drone was detected in the northern airspace outside the Taiwanese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) from 7:55 AM to 4:35 PM yesterday, with its flight path extending from the north to the east and southwest.
  - The Taiwanese military (國軍) reported using joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) means, tasking mission aircraft, ships, and shore-based missile systems to monitor and respond appropriately.

[2026-10-09] Taiwan Detects 19 Chinese Military Aircraft Ahead of National Day
Notícias ao Minuto — https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/3064057/taiwan-deteta-19-aeronaves-militares-chinesas-nas-vesperas-do-dia-nacional
  - On October 9, 2026, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reported that 19 Chinese military aircraft were detected near the island, with 13 crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
  - The detected fleet included J-16, J-11, and Su-30 fighter jets, JH-7 fighter-bombers, KJ-500 early warning aircraft, Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft, and drones.
  - These aircraft entered the northern, central, and southwestern regions of Taiwan's self-proclaimed Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) to conduct a 'joint combat readiness patrol' alongside Chinese Navy ships.
  - This marks the second such patrol detected by Taipei this week, following an incident on Tuesday where 14 aircraft were spotted, 9 of which crossed the median line.
  - Additionally, four Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the 'restricted waters' of Kinmen at 09:10 local time.
  - The Taiwan Coast Guard mobilized patrol boats to monitor the vessels one-by-one and issue warnings in Chinese and English until the ships departed at 11:13 local time.
  - These military mobilizations occurred on the eve of October 10, the National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan), during which President William Lai is expected to deliver a speech regarding relations with Beijing.
  - The article notes a similar escalation occurred last year, with 23 Chinese aircraft detected three days prior to the holiday, 17 of which crossed the median line.
  - The report concludes by stating that China has intensified military pressure around Taiwan in recent years, a territory it claims sovereignty over and for which it does not rule out the use of force.

[2026-09-05] Taiwan Reports 12 Chinese Jets Cross Median Line in Joint Drill
Asianet News Network Pvt Ltd — https://newsable.asianetnews.com/world/12-chinese-jets-cross-median-line-in-joint-drill-says-taiwan-articleshow-0w2b37n
  - On September 5, 2026, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence (MND) reported that 12 out of 20 PLA aircraft sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) during 'Joint Combat Readiness Patrol' and 'Air-Sea Joint Drill' exercises.
  - The detected aircraft included J-11, Su-30, H-6, Y-8 EW, and KJ-500 models.
  - Additionally, the MND detected six PLAN vessels and five official ships around Taiwan's territory, with two sorties entering the eastern ADIZ by 6 a.m. (UTC+8).
  - Maritime security experts, including Ryan D.
  - Martinson of the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute, described the scale of Chinese vessel activity as 'unprecedented,' noting that civilian research vessels may support military operations by gathering data for submarine and anti-submarine warfare.

[2026-08-17] China Conducts Military Incursions Near Taiwan as Tensions Persist
Economic Times — https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/taiwan-detects-one-chinese-military-aircraft-16-ships-around-island/articleshow/133284457.cms
  - On Monday, August 17, 2026, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence detected one Chinese military aircraft sortie entering its northern Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), alongside nine People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels and seven official ships operating around the island.
  - This follows Sunday's activities, where 11 PLA aircraft sorties were detected, with seven crossing the Taiwan Strait's median line into Taiwan's northern and central ADIZ, accompanied by eight PLAN vessels and two official ships.
  - Taiwan's armed forces monitored and responded to these incursions, which underscore ongoing tensions regarding China's territorial claims over the island, a dispute rooted in historical arguments dating back to the Qing Dynasty's 1683 annexation.

[2026-07-31] China Launches Rocket Through Taiwan ADIZ; Military Detects 38 Aircraft and Ships in Taiwan Strait
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202607310050.aspx
  - On July 30, 2026, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched a carrier rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, which flew towards the west Pacific Ocean and passed through Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), according to the Taiwan Ministry of Defense.
  - The Ministry also reported that between 6:00 AM and 6:00 AM the following day (July 30 to July 31), the Taiwanese military detected 27 CCP aircraft sorties, with 22 crossing the median line into the northern, central, southwestern, and eastern airspaces.
  - Additionally, 9 CCP warships and 2 public service vessels were detected, totaling 38 aircraft and ships operating around the Taiwan Strait.
  - Specifically, between 6:00 AM and 3:45 PM on July 30, 15 CCP main and auxiliary combat aircraft and drones were detected in the Taiwan Strait airspace, 11 of which crossed the median line.
  - Between 7:20 AM and 8:30 PM, 9 aircraft were detected east of the median line in the southwestern Taiwan airspace.
  - One auxiliary aircraft was detected in the northern Taiwan airspace outside the ADIZ between 8:20 AM and 12:00 PM.
  - Furthermore, two drones and helicopters were detected in the eastern Taiwan airspace within the ADIZ between 6:45 AM and 8:35 PM.
  - The Taiwanese military stated they are closely monitoring and responding to these activities using mission aircraft, ships, and岸置 missile systems.

[2026-06-27] Russian and Chinese Aircraft Overfly South Korea's Air Defense Zone Without Violating Sovereignty
Portal de notícias Brasil em Folhas — https://www.brasilemfolhas.com.br/2026/06/avioes-russos-e-chineses-sobrevoam-zona-de-defesa-da-coreia-do-sul/
  - On Saturday, June 27, 2026, approximately 10 military aircraft from Russia and China flew over the South Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), according to the South Korean military.
  - While the aircraft approached the area, the South Korean army confirmed that the planes did not violate South Korea's sovereign airspace.
  - In response to the incursion, South Korean fighter jets executed 'preventive tactical maneuvers,' as reported by the military.
  - The South Korean military issued a statement confirming that no incidents occurred as a result of the incursion.
  - The report notes that Air Defense Identification Zones are established by various countries as part of their national defense systems.

[2026-06-21] 21 Chinese Aircraft Enter Taiwan ADIZ; Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz; Crimea Drone Attacks Kill Four; US-Italy Diplomatic Row Escalates
Взгляд — https://vz.ru/news/2026/6/21/1428916.html
  - On June 21, 2026, the Taiwan Ministry of Defense reported that 21 aircraft of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), including J-16, KJ-500, and YY-20 models, flew near the island, with 19 crossing the 'median line' of the Taiwan Strait and entering Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to an official statement on X.
  - Beijing considers Taiwan an inseparable part of the PRC, a stance rooted in the 'One China' principle, with formal ties severed in 1949.
  - In related regional developments, Ukrainian drones struck the Kerch ferry 'Panagia' on the night of June 21, killing one person and injuring another at the Kerch ferry crossing, while Crimean head Sergey Aksyonov reported a total of four deaths and 28 injuries from drone attacks across the peninsula, including a fire at the Chushka oil terminal.
  - Meanwhile, Iran's 'Khatam al-Anbia' command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping as a response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and US violations of a ceasefire memorandum.
  - In diplomatic news, former Ukrainian presidents Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yushchenko, and Petro Poroshenko renounced Polish 'White Eagle' orders following Poland's decision to strip current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of the award due to his involvement in honoring UPA members, an organization banned in Russia.
  - Additionally, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni publicly clashed with US President Donald Trump over criticism of her refusal to allow US military bases during the Iran conflict, with the Italian government canceling participation in US Independence Day celebrations.
  - In a separate report, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent allegedly advised Trump against meeting Zelenskyy, describing him with derogatory terms in a book review by The Guardian, citing a disastrous February 28, 2025, meeting.
  - Finally, a previously lost song by Soviet rock icon Viktor Tsoi, 'Children of the Minutes', was discovered in archives and is set to premiere on June 21, 2026, on his birthday, based on a 1988 recording by the daughter of the Swedish consul.

[2026-06-15] Japanese Fighters Intercept Chinese Drone and Spy Plane Near Okinawa
il Giornale.it — https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/difesa/velivoli-cinesi-intercettati-dai-caccia-drone-e-l-aereo-spia-2679116.html
  - On June 12, 2026, the Japanese government ordered the immediate takeoff of fighter jets to intercept and identify two Chinese military aircraft operating near Okinawa.
  - The incident involved a TB-001 reconnaissance and attack drone and a Shaanxi Y-9 electronic intelligence aircraft, both of which operated within Tokyo's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without violating Japanese airspace.
  - According to reports cited by Defence Security Asia, the mission highlighted the increasing integration of unmanned platforms and specialized electronic information gathering aircraft by the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
  - Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi noted that this marked the first publicly disclosed mission of the TB-001 in the current fiscal year, emphasizing the drone's capability to remain airborne for many hours and cover vast maritime areas.
  - The Japanese authorities interpret these operations not merely as demonstrations, but as active preparation for potential regional crisis scenarios, aimed at gathering data on Japanese response procedures, interception times, and air defense network operations.

[2026-06-09] China's Military Activity Detected Near Taiwan: 1 Aircraft and 15 Ships Reported
Patrika News — https://www.patrika.com/world-news/taiwan-china-tension-chinese-aircraft-and-15-ships-detected-near-taiwan-20651947
  - On Tuesday, June 9, 2026, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense reported renewed military activity by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China near Taiwan, involving one aircraft and 15 vessels (six naval ships and nine government ships).
  - According to the Ministry, the aircraft entered Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), prompting the Taiwan military to monitor the situation closely and take appropriate countermeasures.
  - The Ministry emphasized that all movements in the region are being closely monitored to ensure regional security.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The PLATracker 'Daily Totals' tab (CSV export) has data through 10/16/2026. No November 2026 rows exist yet. Recent 'Total Aircraft Tracked in ADIZ' values are low: from 10/1 to 10/16/2026 the daily figures were 4, 2, 0, 0, 0, 9, 1, 2, 13, 5, 4, 4, 9, 13, 8 and 0, so the October maximum so far is 13. In the late-September rows I could see, the highest was 24 on 9/17/2026, followed by 16 on 9/30. The sheet's all-time 'Highest Single-day Total' is 111.
  Last updated: 2026-10-15 (the 'Last Updated' date on the sheet); data rows run through 10/16/2026 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The November 2026 window hasn't started yet (today is 2026-10-18), so the outcome is still open. The 'no' above is an error: by the rules it should read 'unclear', because no outcome is decided. Recent activity is low (daily maximum of 13 in October so far and 24 in the September rows I saw), but the series sometimes spikes during PLA exercises (record 111). The middle of the CSV was cut off in the fetch, so I didn't see earlier 2026 months in full.
  Fetched: fetch: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.platracker.com/trackers (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF (HTTP None)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/gviz/tq?tqx=out:csv&sheet=Daily%20Totals (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
# Summary of findings (as of October 18, 2026)

## 1. Taiwan ADIZ: monthly maximum single-day Chinese aircraft counts and records, 2026

**No new single-day record in 2026.** Activity has run well below 2024–2025 levels.

**Current record holder**
- The record is the Justice Mission-2025 exercise on December 29, 2025. 
It produced 130 aircraft in a single day, the largest single-day operation around Taiwan since comprehensive daily reporting began.
 That is a Taiwan Security Monitor (TSM) finding, and it counts all aircraft detected, not only ADIZ entries.
- Older ADIZ-entry records are different measures. 
56 aircraft entered the ADIZ on October 4, 2021.
 
A record 71 warplanes were reported on December 25, 2022
, which Radio Free Asia described as the largest single-day ADIZ number at that time.

**2026 monthly peaks (single-day maximum), from TSM and other sources**

| Month | Peak day | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 
34 aircraft on Jan 15 (a joint combat readiness patrol, or JCRP)
 | [TSM Jan update](https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-january-2026-update) |
| Mar | 
36 aircraft on Mar 17 (JCRP)
 | [TSM Mar update](https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-march-2026-update) |
| May | 
29 aircraft on both May 1 and May 25
 | [TSM May update](https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-may-2026-update/) |
| Aug | 
21 aircraft on Aug 4 (17 ADIZ entries)
 | [TSM Aug update](https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update/) |

- Of these, the March 17 count of 36 is the highest I found for 2026. I did not find a full-year ranking, so I can't confirm it is the year's peak. TSM calls May 25 
the second-highest single-day total of 2026
, which is consistent with 36 being the top.
- Monthly totals trended down. 
Totals fell from 270 to 190 to 173 across January–March.
 
May recorded 274 sorties
, which is 
40 percent below the 458 in May 2025.

- Other context:
  - 
By early March, 460 aircraft had entered the ADIZ in 2026, down 46.5% from last year.
 ([Defense Post, Mar 9](https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/09/china-aircraft-resume-taiwan/))
  - There was an unusual lull: 
no PLA aircraft were reported in the ADIZ from Feb 27 until March 7.

  - 
Air activity fell to zero during the May 14–15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

  - 
2025 was a record annual year, with 3,764 ADIZ incursions, up 22.4% from 2024
 ([Daily Caller citing CSIS ChinaPower, Sep 14](https://dailycaller.com/2026/09/14/taiwan-strait-china-drills-heating-up/)).
- I did not find a source for the monthly maximums for February, April, June, July or September. A tweet from K. Tristan Tang says 
June 2026 had 214 aircraft sorties and 134 median line crossings
, but it does not give the peak day ([X post](https://x.com/KTristanTang/status/2072614046051049675)).

## 2. PLA joint combat readiness patrols, October 2026

- **Oct 6 and Oct 9 patrols.** 
The PLA ran two JCRPs on October 6 and October 9, the second on the eve of Taiwan's Natio

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2022 Chinese military exercises around Taiwan:
  The 2022 Chinese military exercises around Taiwan were a series of large-scale live-fire military exercises that lasted from 4–11 August 2022 by the People's Republic of China (PRC) that encircled the island Taiwan, ruled independently by the government of the Republic of China (ROC). The military exercises involved naval deployments, air sorties and ballistic missile launches by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The exercises started in response to then-United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

  Joint Sword-2024A:
  The Joint Sword-2024A was a military exercise organized by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to organize the land, sea, air, and rocket forces of the theatre of operations in the vicinity of Kinmen, Matsu Islands, and the Island of Taiwan.

  Strait Thunder-2025A:
  The Strait Thunder–2025A was a military exercise organized by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China from 1–2 April 2025, involving the command's land, sea, air, and rocket forces. The exercise was conducted in the vicinity of the Matsu Islands and the main island of Taiwan. The drill on 2 April was held in the central and southern parts of the Taiwan Strait. This was China's seventh major military drill targeting Taiwan since August 2022.

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day during November 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Reuters:[Taiwan says 'unpredictable' China strengthens air and sea control nearby](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/taiwan-says-unpredictable-china-strengthens-air-sea-control-nearby-2026-08-31/)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "5711b0e649120d78", "sheet_id": "39"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the maximum number of aircraft that Taiwan reports having violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day during November 2026. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, T[aiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g).

## Fine Print
Specifically, the column "Total Aircraft Tracked in ADIZ" will be used on the "Daily Totals" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.
If the tracker has not been updated to include data through November 2026, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.

## Range
The question's displayed range is [4.5, 45.5] (units: violations).
The LOWER bound is OPEN: outcomes below 4.5 are possible and resolve as "below range".
The UPPER bound is OPEN: outcomes above 45.5 are possible and resolve as "above range".
Where a bound is open, your percentiles MAY lie outside the displayed range — the range is where the question author expects most of the mass, not a constraint on the answer. Do not compress your distribution to fit inside it.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The PLATracker 'Daily Totals' tab (CSV export) has data through 10/16/2026. No November 2026 rows exist yet. Recent 'Total Aircraft Tracked in ADIZ' values are low: from 10/1 to 10/16/2026 the daily figures were 4, 2, 0, 0, 0, 9, 1, 2, 13, 5, 4, 4, 9, 13, 8 and 0, so the October maximum so far is 13. In the late-September rows I could see, the highest was 24 on 9/17/2026, followed by 16 on 9/30. The sheet's all-time 'Highest Single-day Total' is 111.
  Last updated: 2026-10-15 (the 'Last Updated' date on the sheet); data rows run through 10/16/2026 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The November 2026 window hasn't started yet (today is 2026-10-18), so the outcome is still open. The 'no' above is an error: by the rules it should read 'unclear', because no outcome is decided. Recent activity is low (daily maximum of 13 in October so far and 24 in the September rows I saw), but the series sometimes spikes during PLA exercises (record 111). The middle of the CSV was cut off in the fetch, so I didn't see earlier 2026 months in full.
  Fetched: fetch: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.platracker.com/trackers (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF (HTTP None)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/gviz/tq?tqx=out:csv&sheet=Daily%20Totals (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
# Summary of findings (as of October 18, 2026)

## 1. Taiwan ADIZ: monthly maximum single-day Chinese aircraft counts and records, 2026

**No new single-day record in 2026.** Activity has run well below 2024–2025 levels.

**Current record holder**
- The record is the Justice Mission-2025 exercise on December 29, 2025. 
It produced 130 aircraft in a single day, the largest single-day operation around Taiwan since comprehensive daily reporting began.
 That is a Taiwan Security Monitor (TSM) finding, and it counts all aircraft detected, not only ADIZ entries.
- Older ADIZ-entry records are different measures. 
56 aircraft entered the ADIZ on October 4, 2021.
 
A record 71 warplanes were reported on December 25, 2022
, which Radio Free Asia described as the largest single-day ADIZ number at that time.

**2026 monthly peaks (single-day maximum), from TSM and other sources**

| Month | Peak day | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 
34 aircraft on Jan 15 (a joint combat readiness patrol, or JCRP)
 | [TSM Jan update](https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-january-2026-update) |
| Mar | 
36 aircraft on Mar 17 (JCRP)
 | [TSM Mar update](https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-march-2026-update) |
| May | 
29 aircraft on both May 1 and May 25
 | [TSM May update](https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-may-2026-update/) |
| Aug | 
21 aircraft on Aug 4 (17 ADIZ entries)
 | [TSM Aug update](https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update/) |

- Of these, the March 17 count of 36 is the highest I found for 2026. I did not find a full-year ranking, so I can't confirm it is the year's peak. TSM calls May 25 
the second-highest single-day total of 2026
, which is consistent with 36 being the top.
- Monthly totals trended down. 
Totals fell from 270 to 190 to 173 across January–March.
 
May recorded 274 sorties
, which is 
40 percent below the 458 in May 2025.

- Other context:
  - 
By early March, 460 aircraft had entered the ADIZ in 2026, down 46.5% from last year.
 ([Defense Post, Mar 9](https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/09/china-aircraft-resume-taiwan/))
  - There was an unusual lull: 
no PLA aircraft were reported in the ADIZ from Feb 27 until March 7.

  - 
Air activity fell to zero during the May 14–15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

  - 
2025 was a record annual year, with 3,764 ADIZ incursions, up 22.4% from 2024
 ([Daily Caller citing CSIS ChinaPower, Sep 14](https://dailycaller.com/2026/09/14/taiwan-strait-china-drills-heating-up/)).
- I did not find a source for the monthly maximums for February, April, June, July or September. A tweet from K. Tristan Tang says 
June 2026 had 214 aircraft sorties and 134 median line crossings
, but it does not give the peak day ([X post](https://x.com/KTristanTang/status/2072614046051049675)).

## 2. PLA joint combat readiness patrols, October 2026

- **Oct 6 and Oct 9 patrols.** 
The PLA ran two JCRPs on October 6 and October 9, the second on the eve of Taiwan's Natio

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2022 Chinese military exercises around Taiwan:
  The 2022 Chinese military exercises around Taiwan were a series of large-scale live-fire military exercises that lasted from 4–11 August 2022 by the People's Republic of China (PRC) that encircled the island Taiwan, ruled independently by the government of the Republic of China (ROC). The military exercises involved naval deployments, air sorties and ballistic missile launches by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The exercises started in response to then-United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

  Joint Sword-2024A:
  The Joint Sword-2024A was a military exercise organized by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to organize the land, sea, air, and rocket forces of the theatre of operations in the vicinity of Kinmen, Matsu Islands, and the Island of Taiwan.

  Strait Thunder-2025A:
  The Strait Thunder–2025A was a military exercise organized by the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China from 1–2 April 2025, involving the command's land, sea, air, and rocket forces. The exercise was conducted in the vicinity of the Matsu Islands and the main island of Taiwan. The drill on 2 April was held in the central and southern parts of the Taiwan Strait. This was China's seventh major military drill targeting Taiwan since August 2022.

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-18; forecasting closes 2026-10-19; resolves 2026-12-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
12 AskNews articles (newest first; 4 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-18] Taiwan Detects PLA Aircraft and Vessels Breaching Air Defence Identification Zone
LatestLY — https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/world-news-taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory-7648643.html
  - On October 18, 2026, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defence confirmed that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted military operations near Taiwan's territory.
  - Defence officials reported that 2 PLA aircraft sorties and 5 People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels crossed the traditional buffer zone and entered Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the northern and central sectors up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) on Sunday.
  - In response, the Republic of China Armed Forces (ROCA) deployed joint combat air patrols, naval ships, and land-based missile systems to track the operations.
  - This followed a significant increase in activity on Saturday, where 9 PLA aircraft sorties, 6 PLAN vessels, and 8 official ships were detected, with 5 aircraft crossing the median line into the northern, central, and southwestern ADIZ sectors.
  - According to data from Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration, 244 Chinese vessels were detected in the waters around Taiwan last month, a sharp rise from 55 in June and 30 in May.
  - Ryan D.
  - Martinson of the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute noted that the increasing involvement of civilian research vessels, which can share data with the military, represents an unprecedented scale of operations aimed at asserting jurisdiction and placing pressure on Taiwan's leadership.

[2026-10-18] Taiwan Detects PLA Aircraft and Vessels Crossing ADIZ Amid Escalating Maritime Activity
Webindia123.com — https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20261018/4512290.html
  - On October 18, 2026, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported that the People's Republic of China (PLA) conducted 2 sorties of aircraft and deployed 5 People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels, along with 9 official ships, operating around Taiwan's territory up to 6 a.m. (UTC+8) on Sunday.
  - Defense officials confirmed that both aircraft sorties crossed the traditional median line and entered Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over its northern and central regions.
  - In response, the Republic of China (ROC) Armed Forces deployed joint combat air patrols, naval ships, and land-based missile systems to track the operations.
  - This follows a significant escalation reported on Saturday, where 9 PLA aircraft sorties, 6 PLAN vessels, and 8 official ships were detected, with 5 aircraft penetrating the northern, central, and southwestern ADIZ sectors.
  - According to data from Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA), 244 Chinese vessels were detected in waters around Taiwan last month, compared to 55 in June and 30 in May.
  - Ryan D.
  - Martinson of the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute noted that while the tactic of using civilian research vessels is not new, the current scale is unprecedented, serving to assert jurisdiction and place pressure on Taiwan's leadership.

[2026-10-17] Taiwan Military Detects 23 Chinese Assets in Taiwan Strait Amidst Increased Activity
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx
  - According to Taiwan's Ministry of Defense, from 6:00 AM yesterday (October 16) to 6:00 AM today (October 17, 2026), the Taiwanese military detected a total of 23 Chinese aircraft, warships, and government vessels operating around the Taiwan Strait.
  - This total includes 9 aircraft sorties (5 of which crossed the median line into northern, central, and southwestern airspace), 6 warships, and 8 government vessels.
  - Specifically, between 9:10 AM and 5:45 PM on October 16, the military detected 5 Chinese combat aircraft and helicopters in the Taiwan Strait airspace, with 1 crossing the median line.
  - Additionally, 3 auxiliary aircraft were detected in the southwestern airspace between 8:45 AM and 7:40 PM on October 16, and 1 helicopter was detected in the northern airspace within the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) between 4:40 PM and 6:30 PM on October 16.
  - The Ministry of Defense stated that the Taiwanese military is utilizing mission aircraft, naval vessels, and shore-based missile systems to monitor and respond to these activities.

[2026-10-15] Taiwan Ministry of Defense Reports 32 PLA Assets Detected in Taiwan Strait Activities
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610150041.aspx
  - According to the Taiwan Ministry of Defense (國防部), from 6:00 AM yesterday (October 14, 2026) to 6:00 AM today (October 15, 2026), the Taiwanese military detected a total of 32 PLA assets operating around the Taiwan Strait, comprising 15 aircraft sorties and 17 vessels (10 warships and 7 public service vessels).
  - Specifically, 13 of the 15 aircraft sorties crossed the median line into northern, central, southwestern, and eastern airspace.
  - The Ministry of Defense stated that starting at 9:30 AM yesterday, 13 PLA aircraft were detected, with 11 crossing the median line in coordination with ships under the guise of 'joint readiness patrols' to harass Taiwan's surrounding airspace and waters.
  - Detailed tracking data shows that between 7:45 AM and 7:00 PM yesterday, 11 PLA aircraft (including main/auxiliary combat aircraft, drones, and helicopters) were detected in the Taiwan Strait airspace, with 9 crossing the median line.
  - Additionally, 3 auxiliary combat aircraft were detected in the southwestern airspace between 8:45 AM and 9:30 PM yesterday, and 1 drone was detected in the northern airspace outside the Taiwanese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) from 7:55 AM to 4:35 PM yesterday, with its flight path extending from the north to the east and southwest.
  - The Taiwanese military (國軍) reported using joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) means, tasking mission aircraft, ships, and shore-based missile systems to monitor and respond appropriately.

[2026-10-09] Taiwan Detects 19 Chinese Military Aircraft Ahead of National Day
Notícias ao Minuto — https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/3064057/taiwan-deteta-19-aeronaves-militares-chinesas-nas-vesperas-do-dia-nacional
  - On October 9, 2026, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reported that 19 Chinese military aircraft were detected near the island, with 13 crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
  - The detected fleet included J-16, J-11, and Su-30 fighter jets, JH-7 fighter-bombers, KJ-500 early warning aircraft, Y-8 electronic warfare aircraft, and drones.
  - These aircraft entered the northern, central, and southwestern regions of Taiwan's self-proclaimed Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) to conduct a 'joint combat readiness patrol' alongside Chinese Navy ships.
  - This marks the second such patrol detected by Taipei this week, following an incident on Tuesday where 14 aircraft were spotted, 9 of which crossed the median line.
  - Additionally, four Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the 'restricted waters' of Kinmen at 09:10 local time.
  - The Taiwan Coast Guard mobilized patrol boats to monitor the vessels one-by-one and issue warnings in Chinese and English until the ships departed at 11:13 local time.
  - These military mobilizations occurred on the eve of October 10, the National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan), during which President William Lai is expected to deliver a speech regarding relations with Beijing.
  - The article notes a similar escalation occurred last year, with 23 Chinese aircraft detected three days prior to the holiday, 17 of which crossed the median line.
  - The report concludes by stating that China has intensified military pressure around Taiwan in recent years, a territory it claims sovereignty over and for which it does not rule out the use of force.

[2026-09-05] Taiwan Reports 12 Chinese Jets Cross Median Line in Joint Drill
Asianet News Network Pvt Ltd — https://newsable.asianetnews.com/world/12-chinese-jets-cross-median-line-in-joint-drill-says-taiwan-articleshow-0w2b37n
  - On September 5, 2026, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence (MND) reported that 12 out of 20 PLA aircraft sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan's Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) during 'Joint Combat Readiness Patrol' and 'Air-Sea Joint Drill' exercises.
  - The detected aircraft included J-11, Su-30, H-6, Y-8 EW, and KJ-500 models.
  - Additionally, the MND detected six PLAN vessels and five official ships around Taiwan's territory, with two sorties entering the eastern ADIZ by 6 a.m. (UTC+8).
  - Maritime security experts, including Ryan D.
  - Martinson of the US Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute, described the scale of Chinese vessel activity as 'unprecedented,' noting that civilian research vessels may support military operations by gathering data for submarine and anti-submarine warfare.

[2026-08-17] China Conducts Military Incursions Near Taiwan as Tensions Persist
Economic Times — https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/taiwan-detects-one-chinese-military-aircraft-16-ships-around-island/articleshow/133284457.cms
  - On Monday, August 17, 2026, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence detected one Chinese military aircraft sortie entering its northern Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), alongside nine People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels and seven official ships operating around the island.
  - This follows Sunday's activities, where 11 PLA aircraft sorties were detected, with seven crossing the Taiwan Strait's median line into Taiwan's northern and central ADIZ, accompanied by eight PLAN vessels and two official ships.
  - Taiwan's armed forces monitored and responded to these incursions, which underscore ongoing tensions regarding China's territorial claims over the island, a dispute rooted in historical arguments dating back to the Qing Dynasty's 1683 annexation.

[2026-07-31] China Launches Rocket Through Taiwan ADIZ; Military Detects 38 Aircraft and Ships in Taiwan Strait
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202607310050.aspx
  - On July 30, 2026, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched a carrier rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, which flew towards the west Pacific Ocean and passed through Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), according to the Taiwan Ministry of Defense.
  - The Ministry also reported that between 6:00 AM and 6:00 AM the following day (July 30 to July 31), the Taiwanese military detected 27 CCP aircraft sorties, with 22 crossing the median line into the northern, central, southwestern, and eastern airspaces.
  - Additionally, 9 CCP warships and 2 public service vessels were detected, totaling 38 aircraft and ships operating around the Taiwan Strait.
  - Specifically, between 6:00 AM and 3:45 PM on July 30, 15 CCP main and auxiliary combat aircraft and drones were detected in the Taiwan Strait airspace, 11 of which crossed the median line.
  - Between 7:20 AM and 8:30 PM, 9 aircraft were detected east of the median line in the southwestern Taiwan airspace.
  - One auxiliary aircraft was detected in the northern Taiwan airspace outside the ADIZ between 8:20 AM and 12:00 PM.
  - Furthermore, two drones and helicopters were detected in the eastern Taiwan airspace within the ADIZ between 6:45 AM and 8:35 PM.
  - The Taiwanese military stated they are closely monitoring and responding to these activities using mission aircraft, ships, and岸置 missile systems.

[2026-06-27] Russian and Chinese Aircraft Overfly South Korea's Air Defense Zone Without Violating Sovereignty
Portal de notícias Brasil em Folhas — https://www.brasilemfolhas.com.br/2026/06/avioes-russos-e-chineses-sobrevoam-zona-de-defesa-da-coreia-do-sul/
  - On Saturday, June 27, 2026, approximately 10 military aircraft from Russia and China flew over the South Korean Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), according to the South Korean military.
  - While the aircraft approached the area, the South Korean army confirmed that the planes did not violate South Korea's sovereign airspace.
  - In response to the incursion, South Korean fighter jets executed 'preventive tactical maneuvers,' as reported by the military.
  - The South Korean military issued a statement confirming that no incidents occurred as a result of the incursion.
  - The report notes that Air Defense Identification Zones are established by various countries as part of their national defense systems.

[2026-06-21] 21 Chinese Aircraft Enter Taiwan ADIZ; Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz; Crimea Drone Attacks Kill Four; US-Italy Diplomatic Row Escalates
Взгляд — https://vz.ru/news/2026/6/21/1428916.html
  - On June 21, 2026, the Taiwan Ministry of Defense reported that 21 aircraft of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), including J-16, KJ-500, and YY-20 models, flew near the island, with 19 crossing the 'median line' of the Taiwan Strait and entering Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to an official statement on X.
  - Beijing considers Taiwan an inseparable part of the PRC, a stance rooted in the 'One China' principle, with formal ties severed in 1949.
  - In related regional developments, Ukrainian drones struck the Kerch ferry 'Panagia' on the night of June 21, killing one person and injuring another at the Kerch ferry crossing, while Crimean head Sergey Aksyonov reported a total of four deaths and 28 injuries from drone attacks across the peninsula, including a fire at the Chushka oil terminal.
  - Meanwhile, Iran's 'Khatam al-Anbia' command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping as a response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon and US violations of a ceasefire memorandum.
  - In diplomatic news, former Ukrainian presidents Leonid Kuchma, Viktor Yushchenko, and Petro Poroshenko renounced Polish 'White Eagle' orders following Poland's decision to strip current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of the award due to his involvement in honoring UPA members, an organization banned in Russia.
  - Additionally, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni publicly clashed with US President Donald Trump over criticism of her refusal to allow US military bases during the Iran conflict, with the Italian government canceling participation in US Independence Day celebrations.
  - In a separate report, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent allegedly advised Trump against meeting Zelenskyy, describing him with derogatory terms in a book review by The Guardian, citing a disastrous February 28, 2025, meeting.
  - Finally, a previously lost song by Soviet rock icon Viktor Tsoi, 'Children of the Minutes', was discovered in archives and is set to premiere on June 21, 2026, on his birthday, based on a 1988 recording by the daughter of the Swedish consul.

[2026-06-15] Japanese Fighters Intercept Chinese Drone and Spy Plane Near Okinawa
il Giornale.it — https://www.ilgiornale.it/news/difesa/velivoli-cinesi-intercettati-dai-caccia-drone-e-l-aereo-spia-2679116.html
  - On June 12, 2026, the Japanese government ordered the immediate takeoff of fighter jets to intercept and identify two Chinese military aircraft operating near Okinawa.
  - The incident involved a TB-001 reconnaissance and attack drone and a Shaanxi Y-9 electronic intelligence aircraft, both of which operated within Tokyo's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) without violating Japanese airspace.
  - According to reports cited by Defence Security Asia, the mission highlighted the increasing integration of unmanned platforms and specialized electronic information gathering aircraft by the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
  - Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi noted that this marked the first publicly disclosed mission of the TB-001 in the current fiscal year, emphasizing the drone's capability to remain airborne for many hours and cover vast maritime areas.
  - The Japanese authorities interpret these operations not merely as demonstrations, but as active preparation for potential regional crisis scenarios, aimed at gathering data on Japanese response procedures, interception times, and air defense network operations.

[2026-06-09] China's Military Activity Detected Near Taiwan: 1 Aircraft and 15 Ships Reported
Patrika News — https://www.patrika.com/world-news/taiwan-china-tension-chinese-aircraft-and-15-ships-detected-near-taiwan-20651947
  - On Tuesday, June 9, 2026, the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense reported renewed military activity by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China near Taiwan, involving one aircraft and 15 vessels (six naval ships and nine government ships).
  - According to the Ministry, the aircraft entered Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), prompting the Taiwan military to monitor the situation closely and take appropriate countermeasures.
  - The Ministry emphasized that all movements in the region are being closely monitored to ensure regional security.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-16] The resolution sheet (PLATracker "Taiwan ADIZ Violations", tab "Daily Totals", column "Total Aircraft Tracked in ADIZ") was readable through its public CSV export. Its last row is 10/16/2026, with a value of 0 and cumulative day count 2229. The sheet's header block gives the all-time highest single-day total as 111. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g
- [2026-10-16] Sheet values for 6–15 Oct 2026 were 9, 1, 2, 13, 5, 4, 4, 9, 13 and 8. The October maximum so far is 13 (Oct 9 and Oct 14). The 10/16 entry of 0 looks incomplete. CNA reports that the MND's 6 a.m. Oct 16 to 6 a.m. Oct 17 window had 9 sorties, 5 of them across the median line. This is likely a lag or a date-convention difference. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g and https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx
- [2026-09-30] Sheet values for September 2026 include 24 on Sep 17, 17 on Sep 16, 16 on Sep 30 and 13 on Sep 18. The September maximum visible in the pulled rows is 24. I did not see the Sep 1–13 rows, and MND reported 20 sorties in a joint combat readiness patrol on Sep 5. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g and https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-heightened-chinese-military-activity-around-its-territory16020260905130516/
- [2025-11-30] **Value one year ago (Nov 2025):** the sheet's maximum was 31 on Nov 6 2025. The next highest days were 25 (Nov 29), 23 (Nov 28), 18 (Nov 13) and 17 (Nov 14, 15 and 20). Nov 2025 total was about 266. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g
- [2026-10-16] 2026 is a "pullback" year. The 2026 year-to-date total is 1,528 ADIZ aircraft, with a daily average of 5.3. The 2026 peak day is 32 on Feb 12. The 30-day total is 167, which is up 35% on the prior 30 days (124). The first seven months of 2026 were 52% below the same period of 2025. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/
- [2026-10-02] AEI/PLATracker put September 2026 at 181 incursions, lower than in 2024–25. Another aggregator, which carries the same MND data, gives 165–167 for rolling 30-day windows. https://political.org/china-taiwan-tracker/
- [2025-12-29] Recent tail risk: the Justice Mission-2025 drills on Dec 29, 2025 produced 90 ADIZ aircraft in a day (MND reported about 130 sorties in total). 2025 peak days by month ranged from 23 (Oct) to 47 (Aug), apart from the December spike. 2025 total was 3,762. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/adiz-violations/2025/
- [2026-07-23] The most recent named PLA drill found was two-day live-fire drills off Dongshan Island on 23–24 July 2026. I found no large 2026 encirclement exercise. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/
- [2026-10-18] MND's latest daily report (6 a.m. Oct 17 to 6 a.m. Oct 18) shows 2 sorties, both entering the ADIZ. The report for the previous day shows 9 sorties, 5 of them crossing the median line. https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory20261018065235/
- [2026-10-09] The Oct 9 report covered a joint combat readiness patrol with 19 aircraft detected, 13 of them crossing the median line. The Oct 6 patrol had 14 aircraft, 9 of them crossing. Joint combat readiness patrols are occurring about weekly or more often. https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/3064057/taiwan-deteta-19-aeronaves-militares-chinesas-nas-vesperas-do-dia-nacional
- [Release timing] MND publishes a report daily around 9 a.m. Taiwan time, covering 6 a.m. to 6 a.m. The sheet credits each report to the day the window began, per the aggregator's methodology note. The sheet lags by about 1–2 days. The November 2026 data will be complete after Dec 1 2026. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/

BOTTOM LINE: In 2026 the single-day maximum has been about 13–24 in recent months, with a 2026 peak of 32. Nov 2025 peaked at 31, and November 2026 would need an exercise-scale event to exceed the mid-20s to low-30s.

NOT FOUND: Monthly maximums for Jan–Aug 2026 from the sheet. The sheet's rows for Sep 1–13 2026. Any announced PLA exercise or trigger event scheduled for November 2026. A direct MND page fetch.

### BASE RATE
I could not open the PLATracker sheet (HTTP 401), so the figures below come from secondary trackers that say they compile PLATracker and MND data. I could not find Nov 2023 or Nov 2024 single-day peaks.

- [2026-10-18] **2026 is a low-activity year.** Jan 1–Aug 9, 2026 had 1,200 ADIZ aircraft, against 2,501 in the same window of 2025, a 52% drop. Monthly 2026 ADIZ totals ran 121–216, against 222–392 in 2025. The 2024 record of 111 in a day still stands. https://www.globalmilitary.net/news/pla-air-activity-around-taiwan-halved-in-2026/ (search snippet; page returned 403 on fetch)
- [2026-10-18] **2026 peak day to date is 32.** The 2026 phase has a daily average of 5.3, a peak of 32 on Feb 12, 2026, and 1,428 aircraft in total. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/ (search snippet)
- [2025-11-30] **Nov 2025: total 266, daily average 8.9, peak 31 on 6 Nov.** This was a quiet month with no exercise. The PLATracker-derived page lists the 2025 monthly peaks as Jan 27, Feb 34, Mar 43, Apr 37, May 34, Jun 46, Jul 45, Aug 47, Sep 26, Oct 23, Nov 31, Dec 90. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/adiz-violations/2025/
- [2025-12-05] **Nov 2025 was below trend.** ISW/AEI reported 266 ADIZ incursions in Nov 2025, against a post-May 2024 monthly average of 321. It suggested seasonal weather as a possible cause, since incursions were also low in the same period of 2024. https://www.aei.org/articles/china-taiwan-update-december-5-2025/
- [2025-12-29] **The largest surprise in the last 12 months was Dec 29, 2025, with 90 aircraft.** This was the Justice Mission-2025 blockade drill, which came after a November peak of only 31. Another ISW/AEI source puts 125 sorties in the two days of the drill. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/adiz-violations/2025/ ; https://www.aei.org/articles/china-taiwan-update-january-2-2026/
- [2024-10-14] **Record single day: 111 ADIZ aircraft** (153 detected around Taiwan) during Joint Sword-2024B. https://chinapower.csis.org/china-increased-military-activities-indo-pacific-2025/
- [2024-11] **Nov 2024 was reported as high.** Jamestown says Nov–Dec 2024 incursions were "significantly larger" than typical 2021–23 months. I could not find the Nov 2024 peak day. https://jamestown.org/military-implications-of-pla-aircraft-incursions-in-taiwans-airspace-2024/
- [2024-11-05] **Example Nov 2024 daily report: 20 aircraft detected, 16 crossed the median line.** https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20241105/4252781.html
- [2023-11] **Late Nov 2023 daily MND counts were low.** Aircraft detected around Taiwan were 6–14 per day (14 on Nov 29, with 5 in or crossing into the ADIZ). The Nov 2023 monthly peak is not shown. https://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/missile-threat-and-proliferation/todays-missile-threat/taiwan-missile-updates/
- [2025-12 context] **Jamestown's seasonal view.** It says the PLA's annual training plans mostly finish by November, so scale and frequency are lower then. It defines a "peak incursion day" as 30 or more aircraft; there were 28 such days in 2023 and 32 in 2024. https://jamestown.org/military-implications-of-pla-aircraft-incursions-in-taiwans-airspace-2024/
- [2026-10-09 to 10-18] **October 2026 daily counts so far.** All figures are aircraft sorties detected around Taiwan, not the ADIZ-only column. Oct 9: 19 detected, 13 crossed the median line. Oct 15: 15 sorties, 13 across the median line. Oct 17: 9 sorties, 5 across. Oct 18: 2 sorties. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610150041.aspx ; https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx ; https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory20261018065235/
- [2026] **Historical high-days by phase** (secondary tracker): 56 on Oct 4, 2021; 54 on Apr 10, 2023 (the Wikipedia page puts the Dec 26, 2022 peak at a record 71 at that time); 111 on Oct 14, 2024. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/

BOTTOM LINE: The only November single-day maximum I could confirm is 31 in 2025 (6 Nov), and that was a quiet, no-exercise month. 2026 air activity is about half of 2025's, with a year-to-date peak of 32. A November 2026 maximum in the 20s to 30s looks like the baseline. Exercises, such as the Dec 2025 day of 90, are the main upside risk, and I found none announced for November.

NOT FOUND: The PLATracker sheet itself (HTTP 401). November daily maxima for 2023 and 2024. Any forecast-accuracy record for this metric. Any announced PLA exercise for November 2026.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-16] MND officials were asked on Oct 15 whether a large encirclement drill could come in the PLA's "November-to-December peak season." Their answer was non-committal: they are monitoring and on high alert. Taipei Times notes that at least one large drill was held every year from 2023 to 2025, and that the PLA has held none so far in 2026. So the "annual large drill" is overdue, and it is the main driver of any tail outcome. Whether it falls in November or December is the key unknown. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057
- [2026-10-16] The Liaoning carrier group began "routine" western Pacific drills on Oct 14. This is a possible precursor, but it is not a named Taiwan exercise. Same Taipei Times article. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057
- [2026-10-14] TSM weekly for Oct 5–11 shows 34 ADIZ aircraft for the week, against 56 detected in total. The 21-aircraft patrol day on Oct 9 is therefore a detection figure. The ADIZ column the question uses is lower than the headline detections; the sheet's value for that day was 13. China issued no-sail notices for live-fire drills from Oct 12 to 17, and no named exercise has followed. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october
- [2026-10-07] The Sept 30 patrol gave 23 detected aircraft, 16 of them in the ADIZ. TSM counts it as the third patrol in 11 days (Sep 30, Oct 6, Oct 9). Patrol cadence is rising into the new quarter. Typical patrol-day ADIZ counts are 13–17, not 25 or more. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september-f35
- [2025-11-15] Nov 2025 patrol benchmarks from MND releases: 20 sorties on Nov 6 (13 crossed the median line) and 26 on Nov 15 (17 crossed). The sheet's Nov 6 value of 31 is a full-day count that adds non-patrol aircraft. This shows how a routine-patrol November can reach about 30 without any drill. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2025/taiwan-251115-roc-mnd02.htm
- [2026-05-19] The 2026 patrol benchmarks are 22 sorties on May 19 (11 across the median line) and 20 on Sep 5 (12 across). Patrols in 2026 are therefore generally smaller than in 2025. Taking the Nov 2025 patrols at 20–26 sorties, the Nov 2026 patrol ceiling is probably similar or lower. https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2026/taiwan-260519-roc-mnd02.htm
- [2026-09-29] TSM describes PLA air tempo as correlated with US–China summitry. Flights were paused before the Xi–Trump summit and did not rebound afterwards. The Nov 18–19 APEC meeting (from the colleague report) is a further dampener for roughly Nov 10–20. Late November, after APEC, is the more plausible window for a spike. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly
- [2026-10-16] The ISW/AEI update of Oct 16 flags the US–Japan "Keen Sword" exercise, with anti-ship missiles to be deployed to Yonaguni. It treats this as a PLA concern. Keen Sword is a possible trigger or cover for a PLA reaction. https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-october-16-2026/
- [2026-08-31] The Taiwan MND annual threat report (via Reuters) cites a "rising unpredictability" in Beijing's decisions after an unprecedented purge of senior officers. It says that all recent drills rehearse blockade of sea lanes. This raises the variance of outcomes, but it gives no date or trigger. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/taiwan-says-unpredictable-china-strengthens-124919731.html
- [2026-10-18] The Oct 16–17 and Oct 17–18 MND windows were 9 and 2 sorties, and all 2 on Oct 17–18 entered the ADIZ. Daily ADIZ counts swing between 0 and about 15 outside patrol days. The monthly maximum is therefore set by a single patrol day or a drill day, and it is not a smooth trend. https://aninews.in/news/world/asia/taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory20261018065235/
- [2026-10-11] Taiwan political calendar: the local elections are in late Nov 2026, based on the mayoral race coverage. A named drill before the election is not signalled in any source I found. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057

BOTTOM LINE: The November maximum depends on two things. The first is whether a single patrol day reaches the high teens to mid-20s, which is the baseline. The second is whether the overdue 2026 large drill falls in November rather than December, with APEC on Nov 18–19 acting as a damper and late November as the riskier window. A drill would put the maximum at 40 to 100 or more, while the ADIZ-only count on ordinary patrol days sits well below detection totals.

NOT FOUND: Any announced PLA named exercise or NOTAM for November 2026. Daily sheet values for Nov 2023 and Nov 2024. The exact date of the Taiwan local elections. The sheet itself, which I did not open.

### EXPERT VIEW
I found no formal consensus forecast, prediction-market contract or community percentile for the November 2026 single-day maximum. The closest evidence is monthly peak-day data from analysts, plus context on the November calendar. Note that the resolution column counts aircraft *in the ADIZ*, which is lower than the total sorties detected on the same day.

- [2026-10-18] **Recent days.** MND counted 2 sorties in the 24 hours to 6 a.m. on Oct 18, and 9 sorties on the preceding day (5 crossed the median line). Oct 14–15 saw 15 sorties (13 crossed). Oct 9 saw 19 aircraft (13 crossed). Oct 7 saw 14. All were joint-readiness-patrol-type days. The Oct 9 report did not give an ADIZ-entry figure. https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20261018/4512290.html
- [2026-10-17] CNA, citing MND, confirms 9 aircraft sorties for Oct 16 to Oct 17, with 5 crossing the median line. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx
- [2026-10-02] **September total.** ISW/AEI report 181 ADIZ incursions in September. They call this "similar to the average monthly volume for 2026" and well below 2024 and 2025. They assess the decline as likely a strategy adjustment rather than seasonal. https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-october-2-2026/
- [2026-09-16] **Peak-day pattern, TSM data.** The Taiwan Security Monitor (TSM, George Mason University) lists the largest single-day total of detected aircraft in each month of 2026. These are all-aircraft figures, so ADIZ counts would be somewhat lower.
  - January: 34.
  - March: 36.
  - May: 29.
  - June: 32.
  - August: 21.
  - March and August were the lowest-volume months (173 and 171 sorties). The 2026 peak-day range so far is about 21–36 aircraft. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update
- [2026-09-16] **August detail.** The August 4 patrol had 21 aircraft with 17 ADIZ entries. The August 18 day had 20 aircraft with 15 ADIZ entries. TSM wrote that August's patrols were "smaller than any JCRP earlier in 2026". https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update/
- [2026-09-29] **Late-September lull.** TSM weekly: 36 aircraft for Sept 21–27, down from 99 the week before. Daily detections peaked at 10 and fell to 2 on the day of the Xi–Trump summit. TSM wrote that the "anticipated post-summit rebound" did not materialize. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly
- [2026-09-29] **Mid-September.** TSM weekly: Sept 16 saw 20 aircraft, and Sept 17–19 saw 17, 18 and 19 aircraft. TSM describes a "pre-summit stand-down pattern": Beijing raises air activity around major events and lowers it when managing diplomacy. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september
- [2026-10-14] **November calendar.** Trump and Xi are due to meet Nov 18–19 at APEC in Shenzhen, and a trade truce expires Jan 10. In May, PLA air activity fell to zero during the Beijing summit (TSM). Diplomatic events have therefore damped activity. https://ncuscr.substack.com/p/shenzhen-apec-planning-continues
- [2026-09-28] **Tail risk.** The single-day record is 111 aircraft inside the ADIZ (Oct 14, 2024, Joint Sword-2024B). Justice Mission-2025 on Dec 29, 2025 produced about 130 sorties. The ADIZ-only count is probably lower. The capability for such surges "is intact", per Global Military's summary of MND data. No large named drill has occurred in 2026 in the sources I found. https://www.globalmilitary.net/news/pla-air-activity-around-taiwan-halved-in-2026/
- [2026-09-28] **Weekly baseline.** The Global Military tracker had 18 ADIZ aircraft in the seven days to Sept 28. That puts the week in the 28th percentile since 2020. https://www.globalmilitary.net/conflicts/china-taiwan/
- [2026-08-17] **Markets.** The only market data I found concerns invasion or blockade, not ADIZ counts. Polymarket "China invades Taiwan by end-2026" was about 4% Yes in mid-August. This is consistent with no large-scale operation being expected. https://predictiongenius.io/markets/geo-invade-china-taiwan-eoy-2026
- [2026-10-18] **Maritime escalation.** Coast Guard data show 244 Chinese vessels around Taiwan last month, versus 55 in June. Pressure is shifting toward maritime and civilian-ship activity while air tempo is subdued. https://www.latestly.com/agency-news/world-news-taiwan-detects-2-pla-aircraft-5-plan-vessels-operating-near-territory-7648643.html

BOTTOM LINE: Analyst data show 2026 peak days of roughly 20–36 aircraft per month, with ADIZ-only counts somewhat lower. Activity is subdued, and the APEC summit on Nov 18–19 is a probable damper, so a typical November maximum looks like the low-to-mid 20s. A rare surge to 60–130 would require an unforeshadowed named exercise, and I found no forecast or market pricing one.

NOT FOUND: any prediction-market or Metaculus community forecast on the November maximum; any analyst point estimate for the November peak; a TSM or other tally of past forecast accuracy; the PLATracker spreadsheet's daily "Total Aircraft Tracked in ADIZ" values (the sheet was not opened); November 2025's daily maximum; and the Reuters Aug 31 article, which was blocked.

### HIGH CASE
- [2026-10-15] MND said it is watching for a large-scale encirclement drill as the PLA's "November–December peak season" nears. It said the PLA has not staged one in 2026. CNA notes at least one was held each year from 2023 to 2025, so a 2026 drill is overdue by that pattern. This is the main route to a high outcome. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610150010
- [2026-10-16] Taipei Times, citing the MND briefing: the Liaoning carrier group began "routine drills" in the western Pacific on Oct 14. Carrier activity can come with extra air sorties, but ADIZ counts usually stay modest. It is a possible precursor, not a confirmed trigger. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/16/2003866057
- [2026-10-14] TSM weekly for Oct 5–11: 34 aircraft entered the ADIZ in the week, up 26% on the 27 the week before. Three joint combat readiness patrols fell within 11 days (Sep 30, Oct 6, Oct 9). TSM gives 21 aircraft for Oct 9, against 19 in the earlier report, and 16 ADIZ entries on Sep 30. Patrol tempo is rising from the September lull. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october
- [2026-10-14] After Lai's Oct 10 speech, Beijing responded only verbally (TAO, defence ministry). Live-fire no-sail notices (Oct 12–20) cover the Bohai, Yellow, East China and South China Seas, none around Taiwan. Defence Minister Koo's preliminary view is coastal artillery drills. No named exercise followed Lai's speech. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10/12/asia-pacific/taiwan-monitoring-china-drills/ and https://hongkongfp.com/2026/10/12/taiwan-preparing-for-the-worst-as-china-begins-live-fire-drills/
- [2026-08-31] Taiwan's MND annual threat report, via Reuters, says Beijing is increasingly "unpredictable" because of an "unprecedented" purge of senior officers. It says China is "strengthening its control" of the air and sea through combat readiness patrols. Unpredictability widens the tail, though it is not a trigger. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/taiwan-says-unpredictable-china-strengthens-124919731.html
- [2026-01-0x] Justice Mission-2025 numbers behind the Dec 29, 2025 headline: 130 sorties on day 1, of which 90 crossed the centerline. Day 2 had 71 sorties, of which 35 crossed. So a named drill gives roughly 35–90+ ADIZ aircraft on its peak day, far above any non-drill day in 2026 (peak 32). Dotson's piece says the exercise was a response to a US arms package, though it had been planned. https://globaltaiwan.org/2026/01/pla-justice-mission-2025/
- [2026-10-14] Possible triggers: the roughly $14B US arms package is frozen, and nothing has been notified to Congress, so an arms-sale trigger is currently absent. The Trump–Xi APEC meeting on Nov 18–19 is another reason for Beijing to hold back. Lai has no US transit planned. The CRS notes he has not yet transited the continental US as president. If the freeze lifted or the APEC meeting collapsed, risk would rise. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october and https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12371
- [2026-10-07] Joint combat readiness patrol peaks are drifting up. Sep 30 had 23 aircraft detected (16 in the ADIZ), and Oct 9 had 21. TSM says the PLA's pattern is to pause flights before a summit and resume afterwards. A post-APEC rebound, from Nov 20 onward, could produce a patrol day in the high 20s to 30s. The ADIZ-column maximum would likely be in the 20s. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september-f35
- [2026-10-18] Local elections in Taiwan are close (candidates are campaigning). Maritime pressure is escalating while air activity is held down. Together with the MND report, this suggests Beijing is choosing non-air tools. A high-air scenario needs a deliberate switch back. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202610150010

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is a named encirclement drill in the Nov–Dec "peak season". One has been held every year since 2023 and none has happened in 2026. If it occurs in November, ADIZ-column counts of about 35–90+ are plausible. Without one, the maximum stays in the 20s to low 30s. The Nov 18–19 APEC summit and the frozen arms package both reduce the near-term trigger risk.

NOT FOUND: any announced or leaked PLA exercise for November; the Reuters article body (only the summary was visible); a Nov 2024 single-day peak; the TSM full post text (paywalled).

### LOW CASE
- [2026-09-16] TSM's August 2026 snapshot (fetched) gives the low-end analogue. August's largest day was 21 aircraft detected, with 17 in the ADIZ. The month had 171 sorties, 125 of them in the ADIZ, and it tied March as the lowest month of 2026. After the first week, the tempo collapsed, and four days had zero aircraft. The biggest patrol was the smallest of 2026. The ADIZ-only maximum can therefore sit well below the all-aircraft figure. https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-august-2026-update/
- [2026-07 to 2026-09] Joint combat readiness patrol (JCRP) ADIZ entries in 2026 tend to run at about 7–25. They were 20, 17 and 22 in July (TSM), 17 and 7 in August, and 25 on June 3. Sept 30 had 16 in the ADIZ (23 detected). A November without an exercise would plausibly peak at about 15–25 in the ADIZ column. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/strait-snapshot-july-2026-update ; https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-september-f35
- [2026-10-14] TSM's week of Oct 5–11 had 56 aircraft detected, with 34 in the ADIZ. Patrol days had 14 aircraft (Oct 6) and 21 (Oct 9). The week's activity days were uneven, and Oct 3–5 had zero aircraft. Taiwan's air activity has a bimodal pattern: zero-to-single-digit days punctuated by one or two patrol days. The monthly maximum therefore depends on one patrol, and a smaller patrol brings it down. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly-october
- [2026-09-29] After the Sept 24 Xi–Trump meeting, TSM reported a pre-summit stand-down pattern. Aircraft detections reached only 10 per day during Sept 21–27, and the expected rebound did not happen. Two more leader meetings are set: APEC Shenzhen on Nov 18–19 and the G20 in Miami in December. Beijing may again suppress activity before and around Nov 18–19. That removes about a week from the usable window. https://taiwansecuritymonitor.substack.com/p/taiwan-security-monitor-weekly ; https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/what-actually-happened-xi-trump-summit
- [2026-06-04] Analyst K. Tristan Tang notes that each January–May 2026 monthly sortie total was the lowest for that month since January 2023, and that no single day in May recorded a high figure. The truncated post is a lead only, and I could not open it. Ratio logic: August 2026 sorties were 69% below August 2025, which suggests the Nov 2025 peak of 31 is a high comparator. https://x.com/KTristanTang/status/2072614046051049675
- [2026-06 to 2026-08] Typhoon and weather effects can suppress days. Typhoon Bavi cut July 9–14 to 11 aircraft in total. November has northeast-monsoon weather, and ISW/AEI had cited seasonality for the low Nov 2025. Both are mild downward factors. https://tsm.schar.gmu.edu/strait-snapshot-july-2026-update/
- [2026-10-14] The most recent primary MND report fetched (Oct 13–14) showed 9 aircraft, all 9 in the ADIZ. A 9-sortie day had a 100% ADIZ share, so on lower-tempo days the ADIZ and total columns converge. The all-aircraft figures from the prior reports are therefore a reasonable proxy, and the ADIZ discount applies mainly to patrol days. https://air.mnd.gov.tw/en/News/News_Detail.aspx?CID=214&ID=59309
- [2026-10-18] The Chinese shift to maritime and government-ship pressure (244 vessels in September) reduces the need for a large air show. The Oct 16 AEI/ISW update shows no announced PLA exercise. Its main new item is the US–Japan Keen Sword deployment of anti-ship missiles to Yonaguni, which is a possible trigger but not one tied to November. https://www.aei.org/commentary/china-taiwan-update-october-16-2026/
- [2026-10-11] The CFR tracker's latest items are sanctions on Latin American ministers over Taiwan ties and a US-China détente framing. They show no escalation trigger for a large exercise. The tracker also says US officials see an invasion as unlikely before 2028. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-over-taiwan
- [2026-10-18] The Oct 16 and 17 reports (9 and 2 sorties) show a post-National-Day decline already under way. The sheet's maximum so far in October is 13, per the colleagues' report. October's TSM-style patrol maximum (21 detected, about 13 in the ADIZ) is below the 2026 patrol norm. A downward trend from Sept 16–17 (24 in the ADIZ) through October is consistent with a November peak in the high teens. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202610170026.aspx

BOTTOM LINE: The low path is a November with no named drill, a pre-APEC stand-down and small patrols like August's. That would give an ADIZ-column maximum of about 13–20, possibly the low teens. I found nothing that is likely to push the maximum below about 10, because JCRPs have occurred about weekly.

NOT FOUND: The PLATracker sheet itself was not opened by me. I found no November 2026 ADIZ data, no announced exercise, and no forecast for November. The Tang X post was truncated. I could not find the daily ADIZ values for Nov 2023 or Nov 2024.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: what the resolution source currently shows, and whether the value is already known or fixed as of today.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).

## Calibration guidance

- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Markets and experts are priors, not anchors.** If a SAME QUESTION market, analyst consensus, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior — centre near them and widen — and name the specific evidence they lack whenever you move away. RELATED markets are context only.
- **Open bounds carry real mass.** Where a bound is OPEN, the outcome can land beyond it and the question then resolves "below range" / "above range". Put honest probability there (p_below_min / p_above_max in the output) instead of squeezing the distribution inside the displayed range; the season's worst losses were outcomes that landed where the distribution had ~2%.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
  "p10": <number>,
  "p25": <number>,
  "p50": <number>,
  "p75": <number>,
  "p90": <number>,
  "p_below_min": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is BELOW 4.5>,
  "p_above_max": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is ABOVE 45.5>,
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move your p50 by a quarter of your p10-p90 width if false; [] if none>"]
}

Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90). p_below_min is P(outcome < 4.5); p_above_max is P(outcome > 45.5). These must agree with your percentiles: a p10 below the lower bound implies p_below_min > 0.10, a p90 above the upper bound implies p_above_max > 0.10. A mass below ~0.05 on an open side needs a specific reason.