How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?

The resolution source is the official Congress seat count after the 29 Nov 2026 vote, which hasn't happened. No official figure exists yet, so the closest "current value" is the polling-based projection. I did not read the Interior Ministry results page.

- [2026-10-18] Demócrata's average of the latest polls from 16 institutes (cut-off 15 Oct) puts PP at 31.7%, PSOE at 26.8% and Vox at 18.6%. It projects PP+Vox at 204 seats, 28 above the 176 majority threshold. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/the-average-of-democratic-polls-places-the-pp-almost-five-points-above-the-psoe-and-pp-and-vox-at-204-seats/
- [2026-10-16] Polling Forecast (model corrected for past polling error, last updated 16 Oct) projects PP 136 and Vox 64, so 200 seats combined. PSOE is on 110. It gives a 99% chance that PP+Vox reach a majority. Its range for PP+Vox is not shown on this page. https://www.pollingforecast.com/es
- [2026-10-17] Poliwave's simulation has PP at a median 139 (95% CI 119–158) and Vox at 65 (48–82), so about 204 combined. https://www.poliwave.com/es/gen/projection
- [2026-10-17] An average of 8 private October polls gives PP 135 and Vox 66, so about 201 combined. Individual PP+Vox sums run from 189–197 (GESOP) to about 208–212 (DYM, NC Report). https://cronicasdelaaxarquia.com/politica/pp-vox-sumarian-201-escanos-media-superarian-mayoria-absoluta-todas-encuestas-29-n
- [2026-10-12] GESOP/Prensa Ibérica is the low end of the range. It gives PP 121–125 seats (28.7%) and Vox 68–72 (18.9%), totalling 189–197. https://www.thespanisheye.com/2026/10/12/spain-election-poll-pp-and-vox-could-secure-big-majority-with-up-to-197-seats/
- [2026-10-11] Hamalgama/Vozpópuli is the high end. It gives PP 144 and Vox 68, so 212 combined, with 53% of the vote. The PP+Vox vote share is essentially flat since September (52.9% to 53%). https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/general-elections-survey-vox-surpasses-double-the-seats-of-23j-and-maintains-a-majority-of-212-with-the-pp-according-to-hamalgama/
- [2026-10-15] The RTVE poll average projects PP 136 and Vox 66, so 202 combined. https://www.mundiario.com/articulo/politica/quien-tiene-realmente-ventaja-29-n-espana/20261018024207447474.html
- [2026-10-14] The CIS barometer (fieldwork 1–6 Oct, before the election call) is the outlier. It has PSOE 34.0%, PP 22.2% and Vox 17.1%, with Vox up from 16.6% in September. The CIS publishes no seat projection. Electomanía's own conversion of it gives PP 94 and Vox 63, so 157 combined. PSOE would be on 152. https://electomania.es/barometro-del-cis-oct26-la-izquierda-se-dispara-con-el-psoe-en-el-34/
- [2026-10-17] A separate Opina 360 poll for El Plural has PP and PSOE tied at 28%, with PP on 119 seats and PSOE on 118. Its Vox figure was cut off in the item supplied, so it isn't known. https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/espana-10-escanos-penalti-hay-muchas-opciones-psoe-sea-primera-fuerza_801581102
- [2026-10-02] Trajectory before the call: eight polls gave PP+Vox 199–212, averaging about 205. Today's averages (200–204) are slightly lower, driven mostly by PP slipping, while Vox has risen. Sigma Dos showed Vox up for five consecutive polls. https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/10/02/spain-election-predictions-who-would-win/
- [2023-07-23, baseline] Last result: PP 137 and Vox 33, so 170 combined. Vox is now projected to roughly double. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/
- [2026-10-18] Next data points: more polls weekly. The campaign starts after candidacy filing (21–26 Oct). The final result comes on 29 Nov. A possible PP–Vox Senate arrangement is under study, but it concerns the Senate, not Congress. https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html

BOTTOM LINE: Aggregators centre PP+Vox at about 200–204 seats. The individual polls range from 189 to 212, and the CIS outlier implies about 157. Spanish final polls have missed by roughly 2 points on average, and PSOE has been understated in most past elections, so the downside risk is larger than the upside.

NOT FOUND: Official results, since the vote hasn't happened. A Congress seat-range from the Polling Forecast model. A PSOE-favourable independent poll after the call, other than the CIS. The El País/Llaneras average page.

- [2026-10-18] There is no prior-year equivalent window for this question, because Spanish general elections were not held in Oct–Nov in 2023–2025. The 2023 election was on 23 July, and the previous two were in April and November 2019. The relevant history is therefore how far final polls missed PP+Vox seat totals, plus the current poll spread. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election
- [2023-07-23] Official 2023 result: PP 137 seats (33.1%), Vox 33 (12.4%), so PP+Vox = 170. The Wikipedia summary says PP "fell short of opinion polling expectations", and Vox fell from 52 seats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election
- [2023-07-22] Final-week 2023 polls on the Wikipedia polling table overstated PP+Vox seats. Examples (PP / Vox, with the sum):
  - GAD3: 151–152 / 28–29, about 180.
  - Sigma Dos: 145–150 / 26–29.
  - NC Report: 153–156 / 26–28.
  - Target Point: 153–158 / 25–28.
  - 40dB: 122–136 / 38–42.
  - GESOP: 133–137 / 34–38, about 170, which was close.
  - Misses on the PP+Vox sum were about +10 to +15 for GAD3, Sigma Dos, NC Report and Target Point, about 0 to +5 for GESOP and 40dB, and about +0 for the SocioMétrica midpoint.
  - The PP overestimate was up to about 20 seats. Vox was generally underestimated by those pollsters that put it low and overestimated by about 5–10 by others. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Spanish_general_election
- [2023-07] Before 2023, the pre-election consensus put PP+Vox at roughly 168–183 seats, against an actual 170. 40dB put them at 168 and GAD3 at 175–183. The ranges for Vox alone were wide, at 25–43. https://thespainreport.substack.com/p/4-escenarios-para-despues-del-23
- [2026-10-15] The RTVE poll average (updated 15 Oct) is PP 136 and Vox 66, so PP+Vox = 202. Vote shares are PP 31.5%, Vox 18.7%. https://www.mundiario.com/articulo/politica/quien-tiene-realmente-ventaja-29-n-espana/20261018024207447474.html and https://elecciones29noviembre.com/encuestas/
- [2026-10-18] Individual 2026 poll projections of PP / Vox (sum), with fieldwork dates mostly early to mid October:
  - Hamalgama: 144 / 68 (212).
  - SocioMétrica: 141 / 64 (205).
  - DYM: 139–143 / 61–65.
  - GAD3: 133 / 65 (198).
  - IMOP: 130 / 70 (200).
  - 40dB: 123–140 / 63–74.
  - GESOP: 121–125 / 68–72 (189–197).
  - Sigma Dos, earlier: 140 / 63 (203).
  - The spread of the sum across pollsters is roughly 189–212. https://elecciones29noviembre.com/encuestas/ and https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/general-elections-survey-the-psoe-is-2-6-points-behind-the-pp-but-vox-holds-the-majority-of-the-right-according-to-gesop/
- [2026-10-17] The El Periódico average has PP at 133 seats and Vox at 68, so the sum is about 201. It also reports PP+Vox above 200. https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/encuestas-elecciones-generales-espana-sondeos-12274406
- [2026-10-18] PolitPro's trend model is an outlier at PP 125 and Vox 74 (199), with Sumar at 46. That Sumar figure looks anomalous against other polls, which put Sumar at about 6%. https://politpro.eu/en/spain
- [2026-10-18] The CIS October barometer is a major outlier. It has PSOE at 34%, PP at 22.2% and Vox at 17.1%. The private-poll average has PP at 32.2%. CIS did not show a PP+Vox seat count in the retrieved text. https://www.mundiario.com/articulo/politica/quien-tiene-realmente-ventaja-29-n-espana/20261018024207447474.html
- [2026-03-15] Recent regional results are mixed on poll accuracy. In Castilla y León, PP won 33 seats and Vox 14, and El País noted that polls "closed basically flat" despite Vox rising in February. In Aragón, Vox won 14 seats (+7) and PP 26 (−2), so Vox beat the old baseline by a lot. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Aragonese_regional_election and https://muckrack.com/kiko-llaneras/articles
- [2026-10-18] Tactical risk: PP and Vox are weighing a Senate-focused arrangement, with Vox possibly withdrawing candidates in some districts. Reports say this could reinforce the "useful vote" for PP in the Congress. This is unconfirmed. https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html

BOTTOM LINE: Current poll consensus for PP+Vox is about 198–205 seats (RTVE average 202), with individual polls spanning about 189–212. In 2023, final polls overshot PP+Vox by up to about 10–15 seats (actual 170), and the right underperformed polls. That suggests a downside-skewed error band of roughly ±10–15 seats around the consensus.

NOT FOUND: Any prior-year Oct 18–Nov 30 election window to copy. Official 2019 poll-vs-result seat tables for PP+Vox (not fetched). A CIS PP+Vox seat estimate for October 2026. A rigorous historical average of seat error per Spanish general election.

- [2026-10-17] El Margen Correcto's weekly model (aggregate of 560 polls) gives PP+Vox a median of 198 seats, with a 175–223 range. PP is at 132 (113–151) and Vox at 67 (53–81). The right reaches 176 in 94% of 5,000 simulations. The simulations add a shared bloc-level error of about 2.5 points for the six weeks remaining, because 2023 polls overstated PP and Vox together. This is the first published width for the sum, and it is wider than the pollster spread. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n

- [2026-10-17] The same model corrects for pollster house effects. CIS runs about 5 points below the average on PP and 3.7 above on PSOE. NC Report and DYM run about 1.5 points above on PP. Its averages are PP 31.5%, PSOE 26.9% and Vox 18.7%. The 4.6-point PP lead is up from about 3 a year ago. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n

- [2026-10-17] The Objective Votómetro (Redlines, 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over 52 districts) has PP+Vox at 198–216 seats. It gives a 98.9% chance of a PP-Vox government, five points higher than its previous edition. PP's best case is 145. Vox retains 86.3% of its 2023 voters, against 72% for PP, down from 80%. Only 40% of 2023 Sumar voters would repeat. Aggregators differ on how often the right misses 176, with 1%, 6% and 10% reported. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/

- [2026-10-16] elDiario.es's poll average (reported by Moncloa.com) has PP 135, Vox 66 and PSOE 106, so PP+Vox is 201. Sumar plus Podemos total 13, and its 10,000-run model gives the right a majority in about nine of ten runs. https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630

- [2026-10-09 to 10-10] Fresh 40dB, IMOP and DYM polls all had the right above 176. 40dB gave PP 132 and Vox 66, so 198. IMOP gave PP 130 and Vox 70, with UPN at 1. Sources say private polls put Vox at 61–74 seats. https://www.telemadrid.es/programas/buenos-dias-madrid/PP-y-Vox-rozan-los-200-escaños-en-las-encuestas-para-las-elecciones-del-29N-2-2933126666--20261009105650.html

- [2026-10-12] PP-Vox vote transfer is the main internal risk to the PP seat total. PP's internal study reportedly treats Vox at 22% as the danger line. GAD3 has Vox at 19.2%, 40dB at 18.9% and DYM at 18.2%. Moncloa reports that 20.8% of 2023 PP voters now say Vox. Because D'Hondt works within provinces, a PP-to-Vox shift can leave the combined seat total unchanged. In many small districts the last seat passes between the two right-wing parties. https://bilbaohiria.com/actualidad/feijoo-pp-fuga-votos-vox-abascal-precampana-29n/

- [2026-10-16] Seat conversion: Pollingforecast's seat-law page reproduces the 2023 result exactly in all 52 provinces. Vote-to-seat efficiency is the main structural driver. It models PP at 31.7% of the vote giving about 38.9% of seats, and Vox at 18.7% giving about 18.3%. In 2023, Vox's 12.4% gave only 9.4% of seats. That is a penalty for a mid-sized party, and it shrinks as Vox's vote share rises. https://www.pollingforecast.com/research/spain-seat-law-es?lang=es

- [2026-10-13] Many last seats are very close. ESdiario's district analysis finds that in small districts a few hundred to about 1,300 vote switches decide the last seat, including Palencia (about 300 PP→Vox), La Rioja, Cantabria and Valladolid. Provinces with three to four seats would typically give Vox one seat each. This is an uncertainty on the combined seat count. https://www.esdiario.com/nacional/261013/200153/aun-dudas-votar-provincias-ultimo-escano-29-n-decidirse-punado-votos.html

- [2026-10-18] Tactical coordination: Democrata reports that Abascal has so far rejected PP proposals for electoral coordination and has not announced any Senate withdrawal. He is only weighing pulling candidates where Vox has little chance. This affects the Senate, not Congress seats. https://democrata.es/elecciones-generales-espana/vox-estudia-no-presentarse-senado-en-algunas-provincias-favorecer-pp-29n

- [2026-10-14] Campaign tone: Vox is not attacking the PP and calls their differences "peccata minuta." Abascal urges voters not to trust polls and to vote in person, and he has stoked doubts about postal voting. Público reports Vox is annoyed that Feijóo is competing for Vox voters. The effect is a mobilisation message but a lower risk of a bloc collapse. https://www.eldebate.com/espana/20261014/claves-mensaje-abascal-campana-29n-jugamos-todo_469249.html and https://www.publico.es/politica/vox-molesto-feijoo-intento-competir-precampana-deberia-buscar-centro.html

- [2026-10-14] Left-side mobilisation is the main upside risk for PSOE. CIS fieldwork of 1–6 Oct has 55.7% naming housing as a top problem (up from 37.4% in September). Reuters notes CIS is at odds with most other polls. The housing issue is the mechanism Sánchez is betting on. If it works, a PSOE rebound would come mostly from PP's seats. https://www.thespanisheye.com/2026/10/14/major-rebound-for-pedro-sanchez-as-new-poll-gives-the-psoe-an-almost-12-point-lead/

- [2026-10-17] PolitPro's weighted average (as of Oct 17) is PP 31.9% and PSOE 26.6%, a 5.3-point gap. It gives PSOE a 2% chance of winning and no party a majority. PolitPro's seat total is an outlier, as the earlier reports noted. https://politpro.eu/en/spain/election/parliament/2026

BOTTOM LINE: Models centre PP+Vox near 198–204, but the full simulation range is wide (about 175–223). Realistic uncertainty comes from a shared bloc polling error (2023 overshoot), PP-Vox vote transfers within provinces, and left-side tactical consolidation; the final outcome is about the sum rather than the split.

NOT FOUND: The El País/Llaneras seat percentiles (only a secondary summary, via El Margen Correcto). Any post-18 Oct poll. A PP-Vox Congress coordination deal. The official BOE decree text, which I did not open.

- [2026-10-12] The average of eight private polls (fieldwork 8–12 Oct) gives PP 135 and Vox 66 seats, so PP+Vox is about 201. By poll, the range is 189–212, and every poll is above 176. Vote shares are PP 31.9%, PSOE 26.5%, Vox 18.7%. PP ranges from 121 to 148 seats and Vox from 61 to 72. Individual polls:
  - GAD3: PP 133, Vox 65 (198).
  - 40dB: PP 132, Vox 66 (198).
  - Sigma Dos: PP 135, Vox 68 (203).
  - NC Report: PP 146–148, Vox 61–64 (about 207–212).
  - DYM: PP 139–143, Vox 61–65 (about 200–208).
  - GESOP: PP 121–125, Vox 68–72 (189–197).
  - IMOP: PP 130, Vox 70 (200).
  - SocioMétrica: PP 141, Vox 64 (205).
  - The 2023 baseline was PP 137 and Vox 33 (170). https://cronicasdelaaxarquia.com/politica/pp-vox-sumarian-201-escanos-media-superarian-mayoria-absoluta-todas-encuestas-29-n
- [2026-10-17] An El Periódico poll aggregate (reported, not fetched) has PP at 31.7% and Vox at 18.9% with 68 seats. The PP seat figure in the summary reads 133, but the same summary says the PP+Vox total exceeds 200. https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/encuestas-elecciones-generales-espana-sondeos-12274406
- [2026-10-17] Periodista Digital (a partisan outlet), citing The Objective/Votómetro, gives PP 202–212 seats on its own and Vox 63–71. The article's own "bloc 200–212" figure is inconsistent with that PP-alone range, so treat the PP number with caution. https://www.periodistadigital.com/politica/partidos-politicos/20261017/encuestas-6-semanas-29-n-psoe-aguanta-pesar-buitre-minguez-subida-vox-70-escanos-compensa-atonia-pp-noticia-689405257633/
- [2026-10-17] An Opina 360 poll for El Plural is a low outlier on the PP side. It shows PP and PSOE tied at 28%, with PP on 119 and PSOE on 118 seats. The Vox figure in the snippet is cut off. https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/espana-10-escanos-penalti-hay-muchas-opciones-psoe-sea-primera-fuerza_801581102
- [2026-10-14] The state CIS barometer (fieldwork 1–6 Oct, 5,025 interviews) puts PSOE at 34.0%, PP at 22.2% and Vox at 17.1%. The CIS publishes no seat projection. Electomanía translated it into PSOE 152, PP 94 and Vox 63 (PP+Vox 157, below 176). Electomanía rates the CIS 3.5/10 in its PollCheck. A La Review analysis says Tezanos-era CIS barometers have mostly overstated the left. https://electomania.es/barometro-del-cis-oct26-la-izquierda-se-dispara-con-el-psoe-en-el-34/
- [2026-10-06 to 10-08] A tweet of a polling aggregate, quoted by 99bitcoins, shows PP 31.3% (129 seats), PSOE 26.9% (106) and Vox 19.4% (69). Reuters reported a Sigma Dos/El Mundo projection of 203 combined PP+Vox seats. https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/spain-election-polymarket-odds/
- [2026-10-17] Prediction markets: Polymarket prices PP to win at about 85% and PSOE at about 17%. Total volume was $114k as of 17 Oct. Kalshi priced PP at 82% on 16 Oct and lists Vox third at about 93%. I found no market on the PP+Vox combined seat count, only winner, vote share and placing markets. The Kalshi page itself returned an error when fetched, so these Kalshi figures come from search snippets. https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-winner
- [2026-10-17] Polymarket's market description says private polling averages project PP+Vox "well above" 176 seats in nearly all simulations. https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-winner
- [2026-10-16] Kalshi lists a market titled "Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote", with no price visible in the snippet. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainparli/spain-election/kxspainparli-27
- [2026-10-12] Poll-blackout rules: publication of polls is banned 24–28 Nov. The campaign runs 13–27 Nov. https://cronicasdelaaxarquia.com/politica/pp-vox-sumarian-201-escanos-macia-superarian-mayoria-absoluta-todas-encuestas-29-n
- [2023 track record] In 2023, polls overstated the right. Pre-election 40dB gave PP+Vox 168 seats, GAD3 gave 175–183, and the range for PP was 125–154. The actual result was 170 (137+33). Statista noted that the polls' "enthusiastic" right-wing forecasts were not realised. Polymarket's 2023 market on Vox winning over 45 seats resolved No. https://es.statista.com/estadisticas/1401360/elecciones-generales-de-espana-2019-2023-porcentajede-votos-por-partido
- [2026-10-18] PP and Vox are reportedly weighing a Senate tactical deal, with Vox possibly standing down in some districts. This mainly affects the Senate, but could push a "useful vote" for PP in the Congress. https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html

BOTTOM LINE: Private-poll consensus as of mid-October puts PP+Vox at about 200 seats (individual polls 189–212, mean about 201). The CIS-based outlier is about 157. The 2023 polls overestimated PP+Vox by roughly 0–13 seats against the 170 actually won, so the realised total could land below the poll average.

NOT FOUND: A prediction-market or Metaculus community distribution for PP+Vox combined seats. A Kiko Llaneras/El País model with seat percentiles (the 10/3 piece was not retrieved). Any official CIS seat projection. Post-18 Oct polls.

- [2026-10-17] El Margen Correcto's weighted poll model (fetched) puts PP+Vox at a median of 198 seats, with a 5,000-simulation range of 175–223. That range is the best available measure of the high tail: the upper end is about 220+, roughly 25 seats above the median. PP is at a median of 132 (113–151) and Vox at 67 (53–81). The model gives PP+Vox a majority in 94% of runs. It adds a shared-bloc error because the 2023 polls overstated the right. It also adds a six-week drift margin of about 2.5 points per bloc. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-17] The Objective/Redlines Votómetro (fetched) gives PP+Vox 198–216 seats and a 98.9% chance that PP+Vox govern. It puts PP at 32.2%, with a best case of about 145 seats, and Vox at 18.3% (63–71 seats). Its high end of 216 is the highest published aggregator ceiling. It is a partisan-leaning outlet, but the method is disclosed: five-factor weighting and 10,000 Monte Carlo runs. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/
- [2026-10-17] The same Votómetro says Vox keeps 86.3% of its 2023 voters, the highest fidelity of any party. PP retains 72% (down from 80%) and PSOE 65.9%. Vox is the only party gaining in the Votómetro update, so a late Vox surge is the main upside mechanism. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/
- [2026-10-12] The Sigma Dos/El Mundo poll (2,017 interviews) has Vox at 19.1% and 68 seats, its series high. The El Independiente summary says the PP+Vox vote share is about 51%. That is in line with IMOP at 51.3%, DYM at 52.2% and 40dB at 50.8%. The PP+Vox seat total is 203. The seat total rose only because Vox gained as PP lost 5 seats since the earlier Sigma Dos poll. https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/12/una-nueva-encuesta-ratifica-el-crecimiento-meteorico-de-vox-la-solida-mayoria-de-la-derecha-y-el-hundimiento-del-psoe/
- [2026-10-12] The 40dB/El País poll (800 online interviews, fieldwork after the call) gives a joint PP+Vox seat range of 186–214, with 132 for PP and 66 for Vox. PP is at 31.9% (123–140 seats) and Vox at 18.9% (63–74). Its central estimate is about 198, with a top end of 214. https://www.elconstitucional.es/en/national/the-pp-and-vox-maintain-an-absolute-majority-after-sanchez-early-election-the-far-right-could-double-its-seats_8736_102.html
- [2026-10-17] Pollster house effects, per the model's own measurement: CIS puts PP about 5 points below other pollsters and PSOE 3.7 above. NC Report and DYM put PP about 1.5 points above the sector average. A high outcome of 210+ needs PP+Vox vote share to land around 53% or more. Hamalgama already shows this at 53%, with 212 seats. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-17] The same model records that the left cut 7 points from the call-date gap in 2023, and ended above the call-date polls in three of the last five general elections. This is the main case against a high outcome. It also means the high path needs the campaign gap to stay flat or widen. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-16] Kiko Llaneras (cited via bilbaohiria) says the CIS overstated the left in 44 of 45 elections since 2018. The September CIS gave PP+Vox 171 seats, which would be 31 below the polls' mean. If the CIS is treated as biased, the high scenario is more credible than the CIS's alternative. https://bilbaohiria.com/actualidad/kiko-llaneras-cis-sesgo-izquierda-44-de-45-elecciones/
- [2026-10-04] Sigma Dos's first October poll (fieldwork 22 Sep–1 Oct) had PP at 140 and Vox at 63, also 203 combined. The PP+Vox total has been steady near 203 even as the PP/Vox split moved. https://www.electografica.com/2026/10/encuesta-sigmados-261004.html
- [2026-10-02] The Olive Press average of eight pollsters (fieldwork 20 Aug–26 Sep) gave PP+Vox 205, with every poll at 199–212. That was the high point before the call. Reaching 205+ would mean returning to the pre-call level. https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/10/02/spain-election-predictions-who-would-win/
- [2026-10-17] Triggers that would signal a high outcome: the PP "Maricarmen" case damage stays contained, Vox keeps taking from the PP without PSOE gains, and a PP–Vox Senate arrangement or PP-favouring tactical voting concentrates votes. The Votómetro attributes PP's fidelity drop to the Maricarmen case. The Senate deal is unconfirmed. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is about 210–220 seats. It needs PP+Vox vote share of about 53%, Vox of 19–20%, and a flat campaign, and the model tail tops out near 223. Against that, the 2023 polling miss and the left's habit of recovering during campaigns weigh on the upside.

NOT FOUND: The El País/Llaneras seat percentile page. Post-18 Oct polls. Any market on PP+Vox combined seats. Official 2019 poll-versus-result seat tables.

- [2026-10-17] The EM-Analytics model (Santiago Calvo) puts PP+Vox at a median of 198 seats, with a 175–223 range. That range includes the 176-seat threshold. Medians are PP 132 (113–151) and Vox 67 (53–81). PP+Vox keep a majority in 94% of 5,000 simulations. A shared bloc-level error is built in because the 2023 polls overstated PP and Vox together. A further 2.5-point margin per bloc allows for the six weeks left. The low tail is therefore roughly 175–185. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-17] The same model gives a house-effect calibration for the low case. CIS runs about 5 points below the other pollsters on PP and 3.7 above on PSOE. NC Report and DYM put PP about 1.5 points above the sector average. GESOP and AtlasIntel missed by 2.7–3.3 points in 2023, while 40dB, Cluster17 and EM-Analytics missed by about 1.5. The high PP+Vox polls (NC Report, DYM, Hamalgama) come from the houses that lean right. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-13] Converses a Catalunya, a critical outlet, reports an El País (Llaneras/Andrino) model run with 20,000 simulations. It has PP+Vox near 200 and a majority in 92% of runs. If the left repeated the 2023 comeback of 7 points, the model still leaves PP+Vox about 186 seats. That is a useful "left rally" floor. A La Vanguardia scenario with a single united left plus 1 million extra left-wing voters brings PP+Vox down to 173–175. The source calls this "demoscopia ficción". https://conversesacatalunya.cat/es/encuestas-octubre-2026/
- [2026-10-13] Poll-quality weighting does not move the vote share much. PP+Vox are on 50.6% across 10 polls, 50.1% across the 7 with PollCheck above 5, and 50.7% across the 4 best (Sociométrica, 40dB, ElectoPanel, GAD3). None of the four puts PSOE ahead. Excluding weaker pollsters therefore does not produce a low case. https://conversesacatalunya.cat/es/encuestas-octubre-2026/
- [2026-10-16] The elDiario.es average, 10,000 simulations, puts PP+Vox at 201 seats (PP 135, Vox 66) with a majority in about 9 of 10 runs. The same model applied a week before the 2023 vote gave a PP+Vox majority in 5 of 10 runs, yet they got 170. A "CIS-based" recalculation gives PP 119 and PSOE 116. https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630
- [2026-10-14] The Reuters report on the CIS notes fieldwork ran in the first week of October. It was during the housing protests and before the death of eviction victim Maricarmen Abascal on 7 Oct. Housing was named top problem by 55.7%, up 20 points on the previous month. Immigration was second at 20.9%. Sánchez led Feijóo 39.3% to 14.7% as preferred PM. A salience shift from immigration to housing is the main mechanism for a low outcome. Private polls taken after the call show little movement so far. https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/10/14/spain-s-ruling-socialists-lead-in-state-run-poll-ahead-of-snap-election
- [2026-10-14] The 2023 miss in seats, per El Plural: GAD3 gave PP 150 and PSOE 112 against a result of 137 and 121. That is 13 too many for PP and 9 too few for PSOE. The RTVE average ahead of the 2023 vote had PP 142 and Vox 36, so 178 against 170 actual. The poll error was shared across the right bloc, not random. https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/decian-encuestas-2023-michavila-esconde-entre-ataques-tezanos_801441102
- [2026-10-13] D'Hondt works against a split right in small provinces. Esdiario's projection has Vox winning one seat in each three-seat province (Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Teruel) and in the four-seat ones (Albacete, Burgos, Cáceres, León, La Rioja, Salamanca). Those Vox seats are marginal and depend on Vox sustaining about 18–19%. A drop of 2–3 points would cost Vox many of them without moving PP much. A ForoCoches analysis, a forum post and not authoritative, puts the real threshold at 15–20% or more in small provinces. https://www.esdiario.com/nacional/261013/200153/aun-dudas-votar-provincias-ultimo-escano-29-n-decidirse-punado-votos.html
- [2026-10-17] PollingForecast's methodology page confirms the seat conversion. It uses D'Hondt across 52 provinces with a 3% provincial cutoff. It reproduces the 2023 result exactly, and also every election since 2004. Provinces with 2–5 seats hold about 30% of Congress. A tactical vote on the left, which the PSOE-Frente Amplio "Senate of Progress" and tactical-vote sites like stopderecha.es promote, would act through these small provinces. That is the seat-level mechanism for the low case. https://www.pollingforecast.com/research/spain-seat-law-es?lang=es
- [2026-10-17] The Eurasia Review op-ed cites polls at roughly PP 34% and PSOE 26%. It is an opinion piece and its numbers are higher than the current averages. It is not evidence of a new trend. https://eurasiareview.com/17102026-pm-sanchez-going-going-gone-oped
- [2026-10-12] Al Jazeera frames the call as an effort to rally the left on housing and to "confound the polls". It lists the corruption scandals, the Ceuta handling and the amnesty as counterweights. Sánchez's campaign bets on a late consolidation of left votes, as in 2023, when the PP lead shrank during the campaign. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/far-right-surges-as-crises-threaten-sanchez-could-vox-lead-spain

BOTTOM LINE: A plausible low scenario for PP+Vox is about 175–186 seats. It would need a repeat of the 2023 late left consolidation (El País model: about 186 after a 7-point recovery) together with a shared overstatement by the polls, and possibly a slide in Vox's marginal small-province seats. The low path is a minority risk, since every model keeps the median near 198–201 and a majority in 92–94% of runs. The signals to watch are post-call polls showing PSOE above 29–30%, PP+Vox vote share below 49%, and left unity such as Sumar/Podemos consolidating.

NOT FOUND: Post-18 Oct polls. The El País seat percentiles directly (only a secondhand 20,000-simulation description). Any 2019 poll-versus-result seat error for PP+Vox. An official CIS seat estimate. Any evidence that the PP–Vox Senate arrangement affects the Congress vote.

9 AskNews articles (newest first; 5 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-18] PP and Vox Consider Senate Alliance to Block Leftist 'Senate of Progress' Ahead of November 29 Elections
ElNacional.cat — https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html
  - In Spain, the People's Party (PP) and Vox are studying a strategic alliance for the upcoming general elections on November 29, 2026, to secure control of the Senate.
  - Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, is considering withdrawing Vox's own candidatures in certain districts to concentrate the right-wing vote behind PP candidates, a move designed to prevent the left from gaining control of the upper chamber.
  - This potential shift comes in response to the 'Senate of Progress' alliance, a joint candidacy registered by the PSOE and various 'Frente Amplio' formations (including Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid, and Los Comuns) aimed at concentrating progressive votes.
  - The PP and Vox are analyzing this strategy as the deadline to present candidatures opens from October 21 to October 26, 2026.
  - The importance of the Senate lies in its electoral system, where in peninsular provinces four senators are elected (with voters choosing up to three candidates), typically awarding three seats to the most-voted party and one to the second.
  - A divided vote between PP and Vox could allow the unified left to win more seats even in areas with significant right-wing support.
  - Furthermore, holding a qualified majority of three-fifths (161 out of 267 senators) is crucial for appointments to the Constitutional Court, the General Council of the Judiciary, and the Ombudsman.
  - The PSOE and its allies aim to block the right from reaching this threshold.
  - While PP and Vox have not yet confirmed a definitive agreement, Vox General Secretary Ignacio Garriga warned that 'difficult decisions' are required, and a party spokesperson stated 'all options are open.' Abascal has pledged to act with 'height of vision' to ensure a potential PP-Vox government does not depend on Pedro Sánchez.
  - However, the move carries risks, as asking voters to support the PP could reinforce the 'useful vote' for the popular party in the Congress of Deputies, potentially harming Vox's standing, especially given that Vox won no direct senators in the 2023 elections while the PP secured an absolute majority.

[2026-10-17] Spanish Election Forecast: PP Holds Lead but VOX Surge Threatens Majority
Periodista digital — https://www.periodistadigital.com/politica/partidos-politicos/20261017/encuestas-6-semanas-29-n-psoe-aguanta-pesar-buitre-minguez-subida-vox-70-escanos-compensa-atonia-pp-noticia-689405257633/
  - As of October 17, 2026, with the Spanish general election scheduled for November 29 (29-N), recent polling indicates a shifting political landscape where the Partido Popular (PP) remains the leading force but faces significant competition from the rise of VOX.
  - According to data from 'The Objective' (TO) and 'Votómetro', the PP is projected to secure between 202 and 212 seats with approximately 32.2% of the vote, while VOX is expected to surge to between 63 and 71 seats (18.3% of the vote), nearly doubling its 33 seats from the 2023 election.
  - The PSOE, led by Pedro Sánchez, is projected to hold between 101 and 110 seats (26.6% of the vote), maintaining its position as the second-largest party despite the article characterizing the party as 'corrupt' and 'dishonest'.
  - The combined PP and VOX bloc is projected to reach between 200 and 212 seats, comfortably surpassing the 176 seats required for an absolute majority.
  - This dynamic creates a paradox for the PP: while the alliance with VOX ensures a potential government majority, it increases the PP's dependence on VOX, which could exert significant pressure on policy areas such as immigration, security, and taxes.
  - The article notes that approximately 150,000 Moroccan citizens with Spanish DNI are expected to vote as a bloc for Sánchez, though it argues this may not be enough to overcome the right-wing shift.
  - Meanwhile, the broader left, including Sumar (6%) and Podemos (3%), faces a 'numerical challenge' as the PSOE struggles to maintain influence.

[2026-10-17] Spain's 2026 General Election Polls: PP and Vox Projected to Dominate
El Periódico — https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/encuestas-elecciones-generales-espana-sondeos-12274406
  - With the general elections in Spain scheduled for November 29, 2026, polls indicate a significant shift in the political landscape.
  - The election, announced on October 5, 2026, features a race between the PP led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the PSOE led by Pedro Sánchez, with the outcome critical for Sánchez's tenure at La Moncloa after over eight years and Feijóo's second bid for the presidency following the 2023 election.
  - Current averages for 2026 project the PP at 31.7% of the vote and the PSOE at 26.7%.
  - Compared to the 2023 results, this represents a 1.3-point drop for Feijóo and a 4.9-point drop for Sánchez.
  - In terms of seats, the PP is expected to win 133 deputies (down three from ten days ago and four fewer than in 2023), while the PSOE is projected to secure 111 seats (up seven from ten days ago but 10 fewer than in 2023).
  - The distance between the two major parties has widened to 5 points.
  - A right-wing bloc, combining the PP and Vox, is projected to hold a comfortable absolute majority, with combined seats exceeding 200.
  - Vox is experiencing significant growth, rising to 18.9% of the vote and 68 deputies, a 6.6-point increase and 35-seat gain compared to 2023, effectively doubling its representation.
  - Conversely, Sumar, led by Yolanda Díaz, has collapsed to 6.2% of the vote and 7 deputies, retaining only a third of its previous representation.
  - Podemos is projected to receive 2.9% of the vote and 2 seats.

[2026-10-17] Vox Consolidates Third Place Ahead of Spanish Elections with 18.9% Projection
El Periódico — https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/vox-vive-momento-tercer-puesto-135435058
  - In the upcoming Spanish general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026, Vox leader Santiago Abascal is projected to secure a third-place finish with approximately 18.9% of the vote, translating to an estimated 68 to 72 seats in the Congress of Deputies, according to a pre-electoral survey by GESOP for Prensa Ibérica.
  - This result represents a consolidation of the far-right party, marking a significant increase from the 33 seats obtained in previous elections and mirroring the 20% surge achieved by Podemos under Pablo Iglesias in December 2015.
  - While Abascal has hosted French far-right figure Jordan Bardella in Ceuta and Madrid, the article notes that Vox leadership remains cautious about defeating Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, with some insiders even predicting a potential surprise victory for the incumbent.
  - The report highlights that if the opposition coalition led by the PP and Alberto Núñez Feijóo fails to unite, Feijóo faces political retirement, whereas Abascal intends to continue leading Vox and his role in the European 'Patriots' group alongside Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán.

[2026-10-17] Spain's Election Race Tightens: PSOE and PP Tie at 28% Ahead of November 29 Vote
El Plural — https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/espana-10-escanos-penalti-hay-muchas-opciones-psoe-sea-primera-fuerza_801581102
  - According to an October 2026 estimate by Opina 360 for El Plural, Spain's general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026, are entering a volatile phase where the PSOE could emerge as the first political force.
  - The poll shows the Partido Popular (PP) and the PSOE tied at 28% of valid votes, translating to 119 seats for the PP and 118 for the PSOE.
  - Juan Francisco Caro, director of Opina 360, states there are 'many options' for the PSOE to lead, citing the disappearance of the PP's previous advantage, the growth of Vox, and a potential high-mobilization scenario.
  - Vox is projected to gain 8 tenths of a percentage point to reach 17.8% and 67 seats, while the PP drops to its lowest level since February.
  - Although the conservative bloc (PP, Vox, and UPN) would still hold 188 seats—12 more than the 176 needed for an absolute majority—the gap is narrowing to just 10 seats.
  - Pedro Sánchez leads the presidential preference with 25.8%, compared to 9.6% for PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo and 9.1% for Vox's Santiago Abascal.
  - The analysis highlights that 28 provinces are currently in a tie, making the election outcome depend on provincial mobilization and strategic decisions.

[2026-10-13] PP and Vox Projected to Win Spanish Election with Absolute Majority, According to GAD3 Poll
El Comercio — https://www.elcomercio.es/asturias/elecciones-generales-29-n-encuestas-asturias-20261012074807-nt.html
  - A GAD3 poll published by El Comercio on October 12, 2026, projects that the People's Party (PP) could win the upcoming Spanish general election on November 29, 2026, with 133 seats in the Congress of Deputies, four fewer than the current count.
  - The poll also forecasts that Vox would double its representation to 65 seats, giving the two parties a combined total of 198 seats—22 more than the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
  - The PP and Vox could form a government without regional nationalist support for the first time since the 2011-2015 legislature.
  - The Socialists (PSOE) are projected to lose 14 seats, dropping to 107, while Sumar is expected to fall from 31 to 10 seats.
  - Smaller regional parties like ERC, Bildu, PNV, Junts, and BNG are also projected to change their seat counts.
  - Narciso Michavila, president of GAD3, noted that the sample size for territorial parties is insufficient, so their estimates are based on historical trends. Álvaro Queipo, president of the PP in Asturias, welcomed the poll as confirmation of a political shift, citing that 68% of respondents believe the PP will win and that Alberto Núñez Feijóo is the most valued political leader.
  - In contrast, FSA (PSOE) Secretary Luis Ramón Fernández Huerga expressed confidence in a comeback, stating that 'we are used to overcoming polls' and that mobilization could change the outcome.
  - Vox spokesperson Carolina López warned against complacency, citing Pedro Sánchez's political tactics.
  - Other parties, including IU-Convocatoria, Foro Asturias, and Somos Asturies, offered mixed reactions, with some viewing the poll as a starting point and others as proof of a lost mandate under Sánchez.

[2026-10-06] PP and Vox Projected to Secure Majority in Spain's November 2026 Elections
Diario de Pontevedra — https://www.diariodepontevedra.es/articulo/espana/sondeos-reflejan-clara-ventaja-entre-pp-vox/202610060752241470911.html
  - According to most recent polls published in October 2026, the People's Party (PP) is projected to win the upcoming general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026.
  - A combined majority with Vox would result in an absolute majority of approximately 200 deputies.
  - Specific projections from El Mundo estimate 140 seats for the PP, 103 for the PSOE, and 63 for Vox, while Sumar and Podemos are expected to secure only 9 and 2 seats respectively.
  - The CIS poll is an outlier, predicting the PSOE as the leading party with a 5-point lead over the PP, though it notes difficulties in forming a government.
  - Another poll by the DYM Institute for El Grupo Progreso forecasts 144-148 seats for the PP, 102-105 for the PSOE, and 58-61 for Vox.
  - In Galicia, the PP is expected to maintain its hegemony with 13 deputies, while Sumar is projected to lose its representation, with its two seats potentially shifting to the BNG and PSOE.
  - The PP is also expected to win all senatorial seats in the region.

[2026-08-31] PP and Vox Could Secure 204 Seats in New Spanish Election Poll
ElNacional.cat — https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-superarian-200-escanos-psoe-resiste-pese-crisis-ceuta-segun-encuesta_1688005_102.html
  - According to a new poll conducted by Sigma Dos and published by El Mundo on Monday, August 31, 2026, the People's Party (PP) and Vox could secure a parliamentary majority of 204 seats if early general elections were held.
  - The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would win 143 seats with 33.1% of the vote, while Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, would gain 61 seats with 17.9% of the vote.
  - This represents a significant increase for Vox compared to their 2023 results of 33 seats and 12.38% of the vote.
  - The PSOE, led by Pedro Sánchez, would see a decline to 101 seats with 25.4% of the vote, down from 121 seats in 2023, though it remains above the 100-seat threshold despite the impact of the Ceuta migration crisis.
  - The current coalition government would be impossible to revalidate as Sumar would drop to 10 seats with 6.6% of the vote, and Podemos would fall to just one seat with 2.8%.
  - Regional parties show varied results: Esquerra Republicana (ERC) would gain 8 seats, while Junts would drop to 4 seats.
  - In the Basque Country, Bildu would match the PNV with 6 seats each.
  - The projections suggest the PP would need to form a coalition with Vox to reach the 176 seats required for an absolute majority.

[2026-06-01] PP and Vox Projected to Win Spanish Election with Over 200 Seats in New Polls
ElNacional.cat — https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/dos-encuestas-situan-pp-vox-por-encima-200-escanos-con-psoe-baja_1648291_102.html
  - According to two new polls published on Monday by GAD3 (in ABC) and SocioMétrica (in El Español), the conservative PP and Vox could secure a parliamentary majority of over 200 seats in Spain, surpassing the 176-seat threshold needed for absolute majority.
  - The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is projected to win the election with 33.1% of the vote (141 seats) per GAD3, or 33.9% (147 seats) per SocioMétrica, compared to the 33.06% and 137 seats achieved in 2023.
  - Vox is projected to grow significantly, reaching 17.1% of the vote (60 seats) and 17.4% (60 seats) respectively, up from 12.38% and 33 seats in 2023.
  - The combined total of PP and Vox could reach between 201 and 207 seats.
  - Conversely, the ruling PSOE is projected to fall to around 26.8% (107 seats) or 25.9% (105 seats), a significant drop from the 31.68% and 121 seats obtained in 2023.
  - The left-wing space, led by Sumar, is projected to collapse to approximately 5.7-5.9% of the vote and 6-7 seats, down from 12.33% and 31 seats in 2023.
  - The article attributes the decline of the PSOE and Sumar to corruption scandals involving figures such as Santos Cerdán, José Luis Ábalos, and the recent indictment of former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, as well as the party's dependence on Catalan and Basque separatist partners.
  - The sovereignist space shows a shift where ERC (8 seats) and Bildu (8 seats) are projected to outperform Junts (5-7 seats) and PNV (5 seats).

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: The election is set for 29 November 2026 and has not happened yet, so there are no results. The Wikipedia election page lists only current seats: PP 138 and Vox 32, which adds up to 170. The newest poll on Wikipedia's opinion-polling page, EM-Analytics/Electomanía (fieldwork 15–17 Oct), projects PP 134 and Vox 62, a total of 196. Other early-October seat projections fall between about 186 (CIS/Opina 360: 119+67) and about 207–212 (NC Report: 146/148+61/64), and most land around 195–205 (for example SocioMétrica 10–11 Oct: 141+64=205; GAD3: 133+65=198; Sigma Dos: 135+68=203).
  Last updated: unknown (newest poll listed has fieldwork 15–17 Oct 2026) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The election takes place 29 Nov 2026, and the question resolves on official results. The poll seat numbers are projections, not results. I read the polling table as PP, PSOE, Vox in that order, based on the vote shares and on the infobox. Polls point to a combined PP+Vox total above the 176 majority line in most cases, but the October spread is wide (about 186 to 212). The named election page currently shows Vox with 32 current seats, versus 33 won in 2023.
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Opinion polling for the 2026 Spanish general election:
  


In the run up to the 2026 Spanish general election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 15th Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 23 July 2023, to the present day.

  2010 Brazilian general election:
  General elections were held in Brazil on 3 October 2010 to elect the president, National Congress and state governors. As no presidential candidate received more than 50% in the first round of voting, a second round was held on 31 October to choose a successor to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT), who was constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term as he had already served two terms after winning the elections in 2002 and being re-elected in 2006.

  2026 Ceuta migrant crisis:
  In late July 2026, an estimated 80,000 people, mainly young men originating from Morocco, illegally breached and crossed the border from Morocco into the Spanish autonomous city of Ceuta in North Africa, with smaller numbers attempting to cross to Melilla, another Spanish autonomous city about 400 kilometres (250 mi) away along the Mediterranean coastline. This overwhelmed local reception facilities, and also prompted the government of Ceuta to request that the Spanish government declare a national emergency. Most entered by swimming around the breakwaters of Tarajal and Benzú or by crossing on foot along the shoreline.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)
Claude web search findings:
- **Election context:** 
The election is on 29 November 2026 for all 350 Congress seats.
 
Sánchez announced it on 5 October.
 The majority threshold is 176. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election)

- **Latest aggregates (about 16–17 Oct):**
  - elDiario.es poll average: 
PP + Vox at 201 seats (PP 135, Vox 66, PSOE 106, Sumar + Podemos 13).
 Dated 16 Oct. (https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630)
  - Brújula29N weighted average: 
PP + Vox at 204 seats, with a reference date of 11 Oct.
 (https://brujula29n.com/encuestas/)
  - Politpro "Election Trend": 
PP 125 + Vox 74 = 199, as of 18 Oct.
 This is a low-PP outlier on the split, but the combined total is similar. (https://politpro.eu/en/spain)
  - The Objective's Votómetro (17 Oct): 
PP could reach 145 seats at best.
 
It puts the left bloc at 148 seats.
 It gave no PP + Vox total in the snippet. (https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda)

- **Individual pollsters after 5 Oct:**
  - GAD3/ABC, published 12 Oct: 
PP 133 + Vox 65 = 198.

  - Sigma Dos/El Mundo, published 12 Oct: 
PP 135 + Vox 68 = 203.
 (https://caceresdiario.com/noticias/otros/encuestas-del-29n-gad3-da-198-escanos-a-pp-y-vox-y-sigma-dos-eleva-la-suma-a-203)
  - Hamalgama Métrica/Vozpópuli: 
212 seats for PP + Vox, the highest of the group.
 (https://enpapel.es/elecciones-29n/encuesta-gad3-sigma-dos-pp-vox-29n/)
  - 40dB (about 5–8 Oct): 
40dB and IMOP show PP at roughly 130–132 and Vox at 66–70
, which gives about 196–202. The same article reports 
PP + Vox at 50.8% of the vote in 40dB.
 (https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/09/las-primeras-encuestas-tras-la-convocatoria-de-generales-deja-a-pp-y-vox-en-una-mayoria-absoluta-de-202-escanos/)
  - Electomanía ElectoPanel, 11 Oct: 
PP 131 + Vox 67 = 198.
 (https://electomania.es/electopanel-11-oct-sumar-se-descalabra-a-la-espera-del-frente-amplio/)

- **Pre-call baseline (to 5 Oct):**
  - Sigma Dos (1 Oct fieldwork) and SocioMétrica (4 Oct): 
SocioMétrica gave PP 143 + Vox 62 = 205, and Sigma Dos gave 203.

  - NC Report/La Razón's pre-call poll was also cited among the four first post-call polls. (https://www.noticiasdegipuzkoa.eus/politica/2026/10/05/parte-ventaja-elecciones-29-n-11618337.html)
  - Olive Press average of eight polls, fieldwork 20 Aug–26 Sep: 
about 205 seats, with none of the eight polls below 199.
 (https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/10/05/who-will-win-spains-snap-election-on-november-29-and-what-do-the-five-main-parties-stand-for/)

- **CIS is the outlier.** It has PSOE ahead. 
One alternative calculation on CIS data gives PP 119 and PSOE 116 (technical tie).
 A Wikipedia table entry for "CIS (Ateneo del Dato)" shows 
PP 127 + Vox 65 = 192.
 I could not confirm the date of that entry or whether CIS itself published seat figures. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election)

- **El País/Kiko Llaneras:** I found no current model figure for the 2026 election, so I can't report one.

- **Summary of PP + Vox:**
  - The median of the post-5 Oct projections is about 201–203.
  - The range across pollsters is about 192 (CIS-derived) to 212 (Hamalgama). Mainstream polls fall between 196 and 205.
  - All sources place the bloc well above 176.

- **Shifts since 5 Oct:**
  - ElectoPanel's PP + Vox total was 198 on 11 Oct, against 199–200 in September. Its 4 Oct reading was 198 (129 + 69).
  - Vox is generally up, in the high 60s in some polls. PP has slipped from about 140 to about 130–135.
  - PSOE has recovered a little: 
ElectoPanel 4 Oct showed PSOE up five seats.
 Aggregates are stable at about 198–205, with no collapse or surge in the combined total.
  - The Objective reports PP wear from the "caso Maricarmen", offset by Vox gains.
  - The 5 Oct–11 Oct Brújula average is 204, and the elDiario.es average on 16 Oct is 201, so the bloc may have drifted down about 2–3 seats.
Sources cited:
  - 2026 Spanish general election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election)
  - Spain’s Pedro Sanchez announces snap election amid housing crisis (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-announces-snap-election)
  - Sánchez encara el 29-N con las encuestas en contra: PP y Vox suman 201 escaños y el CIS ve empate técnico (https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630)
  - Encuestas elecciones generales 29N 2026: media y proyección de escaños · Brújula 29N (https://brujula29n.com/encuestas/)
  - Spain Election Polls (https://politpro.eu/en/spain)
  - El PSOE sube, pero Vox compensa el desgaste del PP por el caso Maricarmen (https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda)
  - Encuestas del 29N: GAD3 da 198 escaños a PP y Vox y Sigma Dos eleva la suma a 203 (https://caceresdiario.com/noticias/otros/encuestas-del-29n-gad3-da-198-escanos-a-pp-y-vox-y-sigma-dos-eleva-la-suma-a-203)
  - Encuesta GAD3: PP y Vox suman 198 escaños a 48 días del 29N - Enpapel - Tu periódico en Majadahonda (https://enpapel.es/elecciones-29n/encuesta-gad3-sigma-dos-pp-vox-29n/)
  - Las primeras encuestas tras la convocatoria de generales deja a PP y Vox en una mayoría absoluta de 202 escaños (https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/09/las-primeras-encuestas-tras-la-convocatoria-de-generales-deja-a-pp-y-vox-en-una-mayoria-absoluta-de-202-escanos/)
  - ElectoPanel (11 oct): Sumar se descalabra (https://electomania.es/electopanel-11-oct-sumar-se-descalabra-a-la-espera-del-frente-amplio/)

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
[Pedro Sánchez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez), head of the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), has been Prime Minister of Spain since 2018, when a vote of no confidence toppled the government of the conservative People's Party (PP). He has maintained his position as Prime Minister through three general elections since then, including two in 2019 and one in 2023.

In the [2023 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election), the PSOE did not win the most seats in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies, as it fell behind the surging PP 137 seats to 121. (The far-right Vox party came in third, with 33 seats.) Ultimately, however, the PP were unable to form a government, and Sánchez continued on as PM, with the support of the Sumar party and other smaller parties in coalition.

By law, the next Spanish election could occur no later than July 2027. On October 5, 2026, however, Sánchez [called a snap election](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/05/pedro-sanchez-gamble-snap-general-election-spain-explainer), to take place on November 29, 2026. This decision follows weeks of [popular protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_housing_protests) around the issue of affordable housing, an issue on which [the PSOE is comfortable running](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/10/05/world/spain-elections-sanchez). Meanwhile, the right-wing parties, focused on issues of immigration in the wake of the July 2026 [Ceuta migrant crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ceuta_migrant_crisis), are seeing [strong support in the polls](https://elpais.com/actualidad/newsletter-kiko-llaneras/2026-10-03/que-dicen-las-encuestas-si-hay-elecciones-la-ventaja-pp-vox-y-las-opciones-de-sanchez.html).

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the total number of seats in the Congress of Deputies won by either the People's Party or Vox in the [2026 Spanish general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election), scheduled to be held on November 29, 2026. The question resolves according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). 

## Fine Print
If election results are not available before January 1, 2027, this question will be **annulled**.

## Range
The question's displayed range is [164.5, 215.5] (units: Seats).
The LOWER bound is OPEN: outcomes below 164.5 are possible and resolve as "below range".
The UPPER bound is OPEN: outcomes above 215.5 are possible and resolve as "above range".
Where a bound is open, your percentiles MAY lie outside the displayed range — the range is where the question author expects most of the mass, not a constraint on the answer. Do not compress your distribution to fit inside it.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: The election is set for 29 November 2026 and has not happened yet, so there are no results. The Wikipedia election page lists only current seats: PP 138 and Vox 32, which adds up to 170. The newest poll on Wikipedia's opinion-polling page, EM-Analytics/Electomanía (fieldwork 15–17 Oct), projects PP 134 and Vox 62, a total of 196. Other early-October seat projections fall between about 186 (CIS/Opina 360: 119+67) and about 207–212 (NC Report: 146/148+61/64), and most land around 195–205 (for example SocioMétrica 10–11 Oct: 141+64=205; GAD3: 133+65=198; Sigma Dos: 135+68=203).
  Last updated: unknown (newest poll listed has fieldwork 15–17 Oct 2026) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The election takes place 29 Nov 2026, and the question resolves on official results. The poll seat numbers are projections, not results. I read the polling table as PP, PSOE, Vox in that order, based on the vote shares and on the infobox. Polls point to a combined PP+Vox total above the 176 majority line in most cases, but the October spread is wide (about 186 to 212). The named election page currently shows Vox with 32 current seats, versus 33 won in 2023.
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Opinion polling for the 2026 Spanish general election:
  


In the run up to the 2026 Spanish general election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 15th Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 23 July 2023, to the present day.

  2010 Brazilian general election:
  General elections were held in Brazil on 3 October 2010 to elect the president, National Congress and state governors. As no presidential candidate received more than 50% in the first round of voting, a second round was held on 31 October to choose a successor to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT), who was constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term as he had already served two terms after winning the elections in 2002 and being re-elected in 2006.

  2026 Ceuta migrant crisis:
  In late July 2026, an estimated 80,000 people, mainly young men originating from Morocco, illegally breached and crossed the border from Morocco into the Spanish autonomous city of Ceuta in North Africa, with smaller numbers attempting to cross to Melilla, another Spanish autonomous city about 400 kilometres (250 mi) away along the Mediterranean coastline. This overwhelmed local reception facilities, and also prompted the government of Ceuta to request that the Spanish government declare a national emergency. Most entered by swimming around the breakwaters of Tarajal and Benzú or by crossing on foot along the shoreline.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)
Claude web search findings:
- **Election context:** 
The election is on 29 November 2026 for all 350 Congress seats.
 
Sánchez announced it on 5 October.
 The majority threshold is 176. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election)

- **Latest aggregates (about 16–17 Oct):**
  - elDiario.es poll average: 
PP + Vox at 201 seats (PP 135, Vox 66, PSOE 106, Sumar + Podemos 13).
 Dated 16 Oct. (https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630)
  - Brújula29N weighted average: 
PP + Vox at 204 seats, with a reference date of 11 Oct.
 (https://brujula29n.com/encuestas/)
  - Politpro "Election Trend": 
PP 125 + Vox 74 = 199, as of 18 Oct.
 This is a low-PP outlier on the split, but the combined total is similar. (https://politpro.eu/en/spain)
  - The Objective's Votómetro (17 Oct): 
PP could reach 145 seats at best.
 
It puts the left bloc at 148 seats.
 It gave no PP + Vox total in the snippet. (https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda)

- **Individual pollsters after 5 Oct:**
  - GAD3/ABC, published 12 Oct: 
PP 133 + Vox 65 = 198.

  - Sigma Dos/El Mundo, published 12 Oct: 
PP 135 + Vox 68 = 203.
 (https://caceresdiario.com/noticias/otros/encuestas-del-29n-gad3-da-198-escanos-a-pp-y-vox-y-sigma-dos-eleva-la-suma-a-203)
  - Hamalgama Métrica/Vozpópuli: 
212 seats for PP + Vox, the highest of the group.
 (https://enpapel.es/elecciones-29n/encuesta-gad3-sigma-dos-pp-vox-29n/)
  - 40dB (about 5–8 Oct): 
40dB and IMOP show PP at roughly 130–132 and Vox at 66–70
, which gives about 196–202. The same article reports 
PP + Vox at 50.8% of the vote in 40dB.
 (https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/09/las-primeras-encuestas-tras-la-convocatoria-de-generales-deja-a-pp-y-vox-en-una-mayoria-absoluta-de-202-escanos/)
  - Electomanía ElectoPanel, 11 Oct: 
PP 131 + Vox 67 = 198.
 (https://electomania.es/electopanel-11-oct-sumar-se-descalabra-a-la-espera-del-frente-amplio/)

- **Pre-call baseline (to 5 Oct):**
  - Sigma Dos (1 Oct fieldwork) and SocioMétrica (4 Oct): 
SocioMétrica gave PP 143 + Vox 62 = 205, and Sigma Dos gave 203.

  - NC Report/La Razón's pre-call poll was also cited among the four first post-call polls. (https://www.noticiasdegipuzkoa.eus/politica/2026/10/05/parte-ventaja-elecciones-29-n-11618337.html)
  - Olive Press average of eight polls, fieldwork 20 Aug–26 Sep: 
about 205 seats, with none of the eight polls below 199.
 (https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/10/05/who-will-win-spains-snap-election-on-november-29-and-what-do-the-five-main-parties-stand-for/)

- **CIS is the outlier.** It has PSOE ahead. 
One alternative calculation on CIS data gives PP 119 and PSOE 116 (technical tie).
 A Wikipedia table entry for "CIS (Ateneo del Dato)" shows 
PP 127 + Vox 65 = 192.
 I could not confirm the date of that entry or whether CIS itself published seat figures. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election)

- **El País/Kiko Llaneras:** I found no current model figure for the 2026 election, so I can't report one.

- **Summary of PP + Vox:**
  - The median of the post-5 Oct projections is about 201–203.
  - The range across pollsters is about 192 (CIS-derived) to 212 (Hamalgama). Mainstream polls fall between 196 and 205.
  - All sources place the bloc well above 176.

- **Shifts since 5 Oct:**
  - ElectoPanel's PP + Vox total was 198 on 11 Oct, against 199–200 in September. Its 4 Oct reading was 198 (129 + 69).
  - Vox is generally up, in the high 60s in some polls. PP has slipped from about 140 to about 130–135.
  - PSOE has recovered a little: 
ElectoPanel 4 Oct showed PSOE up five seats.
 Aggregates are stable at about 198–205, with no collapse or surge in the combined total.
  - The Objective reports PP wear from the "caso Maricarmen", offset by Vox gains.
  - The 5 Oct–11 Oct Brújula average is 204, and the elDiario.es average on 16 Oct is 201, so the bloc may have drifted down about 2–3 seats.
Sources cited:
  - 2026 Spanish general election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election)
  - Spain’s Pedro Sanchez announces snap election amid housing crisis (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-announces-snap-election)
  - Sánchez encara el 29-N con las encuestas en contra: PP y Vox suman 201 escaños y el CIS ve empate técnico (https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630)
  - Encuestas elecciones generales 29N 2026: media y proyección de escaños · Brújula 29N (https://brujula29n.com/encuestas/)
  - Spain Election Polls (https://politpro.eu/en/spain)
  - El PSOE sube, pero Vox compensa el desgaste del PP por el caso Maricarmen (https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda)
  - Encuestas del 29N: GAD3 da 198 escaños a PP y Vox y Sigma Dos eleva la suma a 203 (https://caceresdiario.com/noticias/otros/encuestas-del-29n-gad3-da-198-escanos-a-pp-y-vox-y-sigma-dos-eleva-la-suma-a-203)
  - Encuesta GAD3: PP y Vox suman 198 escaños a 48 días del 29N - Enpapel - Tu periódico en Majadahonda (https://enpapel.es/elecciones-29n/encuesta-gad3-sigma-dos-pp-vox-29n/)
  - Las primeras encuestas tras la convocatoria de generales deja a PP y Vox en una mayoría absoluta de 202 escaños (https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/09/las-primeras-encuestas-tras-la-convocatoria-de-generales-deja-a-pp-y-vox-en-una-mayoria-absoluta-de-202-escanos/)
  - ElectoPanel (11 oct): Sumar se descalabra (https://electomania.es/electopanel-11-oct-sumar-se-descalabra-a-la-espera-del-frente-amplio/)

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-18; forecasting closes 2026-11-29; resolves 2026-11-30. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
9 AskNews articles (newest first; 5 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-18] PP and Vox Consider Senate Alliance to Block Leftist 'Senate of Progress' Ahead of November 29 Elections
ElNacional.cat — https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html
  - In Spain, the People's Party (PP) and Vox are studying a strategic alliance for the upcoming general elections on November 29, 2026, to secure control of the Senate.
  - Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, is considering withdrawing Vox's own candidatures in certain districts to concentrate the right-wing vote behind PP candidates, a move designed to prevent the left from gaining control of the upper chamber.
  - This potential shift comes in response to the 'Senate of Progress' alliance, a joint candidacy registered by the PSOE and various 'Frente Amplio' formations (including Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid, and Los Comuns) aimed at concentrating progressive votes.
  - The PP and Vox are analyzing this strategy as the deadline to present candidatures opens from October 21 to October 26, 2026.
  - The importance of the Senate lies in its electoral system, where in peninsular provinces four senators are elected (with voters choosing up to three candidates), typically awarding three seats to the most-voted party and one to the second.
  - A divided vote between PP and Vox could allow the unified left to win more seats even in areas with significant right-wing support.
  - Furthermore, holding a qualified majority of three-fifths (161 out of 267 senators) is crucial for appointments to the Constitutional Court, the General Council of the Judiciary, and the Ombudsman.
  - The PSOE and its allies aim to block the right from reaching this threshold.
  - While PP and Vox have not yet confirmed a definitive agreement, Vox General Secretary Ignacio Garriga warned that 'difficult decisions' are required, and a party spokesperson stated 'all options are open.' Abascal has pledged to act with 'height of vision' to ensure a potential PP-Vox government does not depend on Pedro Sánchez.
  - However, the move carries risks, as asking voters to support the PP could reinforce the 'useful vote' for the popular party in the Congress of Deputies, potentially harming Vox's standing, especially given that Vox won no direct senators in the 2023 elections while the PP secured an absolute majority.

[2026-10-17] Spanish Election Forecast: PP Holds Lead but VOX Surge Threatens Majority
Periodista digital — https://www.periodistadigital.com/politica/partidos-politicos/20261017/encuestas-6-semanas-29-n-psoe-aguanta-pesar-buitre-minguez-subida-vox-70-escanos-compensa-atonia-pp-noticia-689405257633/
  - As of October 17, 2026, with the Spanish general election scheduled for November 29 (29-N), recent polling indicates a shifting political landscape where the Partido Popular (PP) remains the leading force but faces significant competition from the rise of VOX.
  - According to data from 'The Objective' (TO) and 'Votómetro', the PP is projected to secure between 202 and 212 seats with approximately 32.2% of the vote, while VOX is expected to surge to between 63 and 71 seats (18.3% of the vote), nearly doubling its 33 seats from the 2023 election.
  - The PSOE, led by Pedro Sánchez, is projected to hold between 101 and 110 seats (26.6% of the vote), maintaining its position as the second-largest party despite the article characterizing the party as 'corrupt' and 'dishonest'.
  - The combined PP and VOX bloc is projected to reach between 200 and 212 seats, comfortably surpassing the 176 seats required for an absolute majority.
  - This dynamic creates a paradox for the PP: while the alliance with VOX ensures a potential government majority, it increases the PP's dependence on VOX, which could exert significant pressure on policy areas such as immigration, security, and taxes.
  - The article notes that approximately 150,000 Moroccan citizens with Spanish DNI are expected to vote as a bloc for Sánchez, though it argues this may not be enough to overcome the right-wing shift.
  - Meanwhile, the broader left, including Sumar (6%) and Podemos (3%), faces a 'numerical challenge' as the PSOE struggles to maintain influence.

[2026-10-17] Spain's 2026 General Election Polls: PP and Vox Projected to Dominate
El Periódico — https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/encuestas-elecciones-generales-espana-sondeos-12274406
  - With the general elections in Spain scheduled for November 29, 2026, polls indicate a significant shift in the political landscape.
  - The election, announced on October 5, 2026, features a race between the PP led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the PSOE led by Pedro Sánchez, with the outcome critical for Sánchez's tenure at La Moncloa after over eight years and Feijóo's second bid for the presidency following the 2023 election.
  - Current averages for 2026 project the PP at 31.7% of the vote and the PSOE at 26.7%.
  - Compared to the 2023 results, this represents a 1.3-point drop for Feijóo and a 4.9-point drop for Sánchez.
  - In terms of seats, the PP is expected to win 133 deputies (down three from ten days ago and four fewer than in 2023), while the PSOE is projected to secure 111 seats (up seven from ten days ago but 10 fewer than in 2023).
  - The distance between the two major parties has widened to 5 points.
  - A right-wing bloc, combining the PP and Vox, is projected to hold a comfortable absolute majority, with combined seats exceeding 200.
  - Vox is experiencing significant growth, rising to 18.9% of the vote and 68 deputies, a 6.6-point increase and 35-seat gain compared to 2023, effectively doubling its representation.
  - Conversely, Sumar, led by Yolanda Díaz, has collapsed to 6.2% of the vote and 7 deputies, retaining only a third of its previous representation.
  - Podemos is projected to receive 2.9% of the vote and 2 seats.

[2026-10-17] Vox Consolidates Third Place Ahead of Spanish Elections with 18.9% Projection
El Periódico — https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/vox-vive-momento-tercer-puesto-135435058
  - In the upcoming Spanish general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026, Vox leader Santiago Abascal is projected to secure a third-place finish with approximately 18.9% of the vote, translating to an estimated 68 to 72 seats in the Congress of Deputies, according to a pre-electoral survey by GESOP for Prensa Ibérica.
  - This result represents a consolidation of the far-right party, marking a significant increase from the 33 seats obtained in previous elections and mirroring the 20% surge achieved by Podemos under Pablo Iglesias in December 2015.
  - While Abascal has hosted French far-right figure Jordan Bardella in Ceuta and Madrid, the article notes that Vox leadership remains cautious about defeating Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, with some insiders even predicting a potential surprise victory for the incumbent.
  - The report highlights that if the opposition coalition led by the PP and Alberto Núñez Feijóo fails to unite, Feijóo faces political retirement, whereas Abascal intends to continue leading Vox and his role in the European 'Patriots' group alongside Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán.

[2026-10-17] Spain's Election Race Tightens: PSOE and PP Tie at 28% Ahead of November 29 Vote
El Plural — https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/espana-10-escanos-penalti-hay-muchas-opciones-psoe-sea-primera-fuerza_801581102
  - According to an October 2026 estimate by Opina 360 for El Plural, Spain's general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026, are entering a volatile phase where the PSOE could emerge as the first political force.
  - The poll shows the Partido Popular (PP) and the PSOE tied at 28% of valid votes, translating to 119 seats for the PP and 118 for the PSOE.
  - Juan Francisco Caro, director of Opina 360, states there are 'many options' for the PSOE to lead, citing the disappearance of the PP's previous advantage, the growth of Vox, and a potential high-mobilization scenario.
  - Vox is projected to gain 8 tenths of a percentage point to reach 17.8% and 67 seats, while the PP drops to its lowest level since February.
  - Although the conservative bloc (PP, Vox, and UPN) would still hold 188 seats—12 more than the 176 needed for an absolute majority—the gap is narrowing to just 10 seats.
  - Pedro Sánchez leads the presidential preference with 25.8%, compared to 9.6% for PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo and 9.1% for Vox's Santiago Abascal.
  - The analysis highlights that 28 provinces are currently in a tie, making the election outcome depend on provincial mobilization and strategic decisions.

[2026-10-13] PP and Vox Projected to Win Spanish Election with Absolute Majority, According to GAD3 Poll
El Comercio — https://www.elcomercio.es/asturias/elecciones-generales-29-n-encuestas-asturias-20261012074807-nt.html
  - A GAD3 poll published by El Comercio on October 12, 2026, projects that the People's Party (PP) could win the upcoming Spanish general election on November 29, 2026, with 133 seats in the Congress of Deputies, four fewer than the current count.
  - The poll also forecasts that Vox would double its representation to 65 seats, giving the two parties a combined total of 198 seats—22 more than the 176 needed for an absolute majority.
  - The PP and Vox could form a government without regional nationalist support for the first time since the 2011-2015 legislature.
  - The Socialists (PSOE) are projected to lose 14 seats, dropping to 107, while Sumar is expected to fall from 31 to 10 seats.
  - Smaller regional parties like ERC, Bildu, PNV, Junts, and BNG are also projected to change their seat counts.
  - Narciso Michavila, president of GAD3, noted that the sample size for territorial parties is insufficient, so their estimates are based on historical trends. Álvaro Queipo, president of the PP in Asturias, welcomed the poll as confirmation of a political shift, citing that 68% of respondents believe the PP will win and that Alberto Núñez Feijóo is the most valued political leader.
  - In contrast, FSA (PSOE) Secretary Luis Ramón Fernández Huerga expressed confidence in a comeback, stating that 'we are used to overcoming polls' and that mobilization could change the outcome.
  - Vox spokesperson Carolina López warned against complacency, citing Pedro Sánchez's political tactics.
  - Other parties, including IU-Convocatoria, Foro Asturias, and Somos Asturies, offered mixed reactions, with some viewing the poll as a starting point and others as proof of a lost mandate under Sánchez.

[2026-10-06] PP and Vox Projected to Secure Majority in Spain's November 2026 Elections
Diario de Pontevedra — https://www.diariodepontevedra.es/articulo/espana/sondeos-reflejan-clara-ventaja-entre-pp-vox/202610060752241470911.html
  - According to most recent polls published in October 2026, the People's Party (PP) is projected to win the upcoming general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026.
  - A combined majority with Vox would result in an absolute majority of approximately 200 deputies.
  - Specific projections from El Mundo estimate 140 seats for the PP, 103 for the PSOE, and 63 for Vox, while Sumar and Podemos are expected to secure only 9 and 2 seats respectively.
  - The CIS poll is an outlier, predicting the PSOE as the leading party with a 5-point lead over the PP, though it notes difficulties in forming a government.
  - Another poll by the DYM Institute for El Grupo Progreso forecasts 144-148 seats for the PP, 102-105 for the PSOE, and 58-61 for Vox.
  - In Galicia, the PP is expected to maintain its hegemony with 13 deputies, while Sumar is projected to lose its representation, with its two seats potentially shifting to the BNG and PSOE.
  - The PP is also expected to win all senatorial seats in the region.

[2026-08-31] PP and Vox Could Secure 204 Seats in New Spanish Election Poll
ElNacional.cat — https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-superarian-200-escanos-psoe-resiste-pese-crisis-ceuta-segun-encuesta_1688005_102.html
  - According to a new poll conducted by Sigma Dos and published by El Mundo on Monday, August 31, 2026, the People's Party (PP) and Vox could secure a parliamentary majority of 204 seats if early general elections were held.
  - The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would win 143 seats with 33.1% of the vote, while Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, would gain 61 seats with 17.9% of the vote.
  - This represents a significant increase for Vox compared to their 2023 results of 33 seats and 12.38% of the vote.
  - The PSOE, led by Pedro Sánchez, would see a decline to 101 seats with 25.4% of the vote, down from 121 seats in 2023, though it remains above the 100-seat threshold despite the impact of the Ceuta migration crisis.
  - The current coalition government would be impossible to revalidate as Sumar would drop to 10 seats with 6.6% of the vote, and Podemos would fall to just one seat with 2.8%.
  - Regional parties show varied results: Esquerra Republicana (ERC) would gain 8 seats, while Junts would drop to 4 seats.
  - In the Basque Country, Bildu would match the PNV with 6 seats each.
  - The projections suggest the PP would need to form a coalition with Vox to reach the 176 seats required for an absolute majority.

[2026-06-01] PP and Vox Projected to Win Spanish Election with Over 200 Seats in New Polls
ElNacional.cat — https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/dos-encuestas-situan-pp-vox-por-encima-200-escanos-con-psoe-baja_1648291_102.html
  - According to two new polls published on Monday by GAD3 (in ABC) and SocioMétrica (in El Español), the conservative PP and Vox could secure a parliamentary majority of over 200 seats in Spain, surpassing the 176-seat threshold needed for absolute majority.
  - The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is projected to win the election with 33.1% of the vote (141 seats) per GAD3, or 33.9% (147 seats) per SocioMétrica, compared to the 33.06% and 137 seats achieved in 2023.
  - Vox is projected to grow significantly, reaching 17.1% of the vote (60 seats) and 17.4% (60 seats) respectively, up from 12.38% and 33 seats in 2023.
  - The combined total of PP and Vox could reach between 201 and 207 seats.
  - Conversely, the ruling PSOE is projected to fall to around 26.8% (107 seats) or 25.9% (105 seats), a significant drop from the 31.68% and 121 seats obtained in 2023.
  - The left-wing space, led by Sumar, is projected to collapse to approximately 5.7-5.9% of the vote and 6-7 seats, down from 12.33% and 31 seats in 2023.
  - The article attributes the decline of the PSOE and Sumar to corruption scandals involving figures such as Santos Cerdán, José Luis Ábalos, and the recent indictment of former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, as well as the party's dependence on Catalan and Basque separatist partners.
  - The sovereignist space shows a shift where ERC (8 seats) and Bildu (8 seats) are projected to outperform Junts (5-7 seats) and PNV (5 seats).

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
The resolution source is the official Congress seat count after the 29 Nov 2026 vote, which hasn't happened. No official figure exists yet, so the closest "current value" is the polling-based projection. I did not read the Interior Ministry results page.

- [2026-10-18] Demócrata's average of the latest polls from 16 institutes (cut-off 15 Oct) puts PP at 31.7%, PSOE at 26.8% and Vox at 18.6%. It projects PP+Vox at 204 seats, 28 above the 176 majority threshold. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/the-average-of-democratic-polls-places-the-pp-almost-five-points-above-the-psoe-and-pp-and-vox-at-204-seats/
- [2026-10-16] Polling Forecast (model corrected for past polling error, last updated 16 Oct) projects PP 136 and Vox 64, so 200 seats combined. PSOE is on 110. It gives a 99% chance that PP+Vox reach a majority. Its range for PP+Vox is not shown on this page. https://www.pollingforecast.com/es
- [2026-10-17] Poliwave's simulation has PP at a median 139 (95% CI 119–158) and Vox at 65 (48–82), so about 204 combined. https://www.poliwave.com/es/gen/projection
- [2026-10-17] An average of 8 private October polls gives PP 135 and Vox 66, so about 201 combined. Individual PP+Vox sums run from 189–197 (GESOP) to about 208–212 (DYM, NC Report). https://cronicasdelaaxarquia.com/politica/pp-vox-sumarian-201-escanos-media-superarian-mayoria-absoluta-todas-encuestas-29-n
- [2026-10-12] GESOP/Prensa Ibérica is the low end of the range. It gives PP 121–125 seats (28.7%) and Vox 68–72 (18.9%), totalling 189–197. https://www.thespanisheye.com/2026/10/12/spain-election-poll-pp-and-vox-could-secure-big-majority-with-up-to-197-seats/
- [2026-10-11] Hamalgama/Vozpópuli is the high end. It gives PP 144 and Vox 68, so 212 combined, with 53% of the vote. The PP+Vox vote share is essentially flat since September (52.9% to 53%). https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/general-elections-survey-vox-surpasses-double-the-seats-of-23j-and-maintains-a-majority-of-212-with-the-pp-according-to-hamalgama/
- [2026-10-15] The RTVE poll average projects PP 136 and Vox 66, so 202 combined. https://www.mundiario.com/articulo/politica/quien-tiene-realmente-ventaja-29-n-espana/20261018024207447474.html
- [2026-10-14] The CIS barometer (fieldwork 1–6 Oct, before the election call) is the outlier. It has PSOE 34.0%, PP 22.2% and Vox 17.1%, with Vox up from 16.6% in September. The CIS publishes no seat projection. Electomanía's own conversion of it gives PP 94 and Vox 63, so 157 combined. PSOE would be on 152. https://electomania.es/barometro-del-cis-oct26-la-izquierda-se-dispara-con-el-psoe-en-el-34/
- [2026-10-17] A separate Opina 360 poll for El Plural has PP and PSOE tied at 28%, with PP on 119 seats and PSOE on 118. Its Vox figure was cut off in the item supplied, so it isn't known. https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/espana-10-escanos-penalti-hay-muchas-opciones-psoe-sea-primera-fuerza_801581102
- [2026-10-02] Trajectory before the call: eight polls gave PP+Vox 199–212, averaging about 205. Today's averages (200–204) are slightly lower, driven mostly by PP slipping, while Vox has risen. Sigma Dos showed Vox up for five consecutive polls. https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/10/02/spain-election-predictions-who-would-win/
- [2023-07-23, baseline] Last result: PP 137 and Vox 33, so 170 combined. Vox is now projected to roughly double. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/
- [2026-10-18] Next data points: more polls weekly. The campaign starts after candidacy filing (21–26 Oct). The final result comes on 29 Nov. A possible PP–Vox Senate arrangement is under study, but it concerns the Senate, not Congress. https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html

BOTTOM LINE: Aggregators centre PP+Vox at about 200–204 seats. The individual polls range from 189 to 212, and the CIS outlier implies about 157. Spanish final polls have missed by roughly 2 points on average, and PSOE has been understated in most past elections, so the downside risk is larger than the upside.

NOT FOUND: Official results, since the vote hasn't happened. A Congress seat-range from the Polling Forecast model. A PSOE-favourable independent poll after the call, other than the CIS. The El País/Llaneras average page.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-18] There is no prior-year equivalent window for this question, because Spanish general elections were not held in Oct–Nov in 2023–2025. The 2023 election was on 23 July, and the previous two were in April and November 2019. The relevant history is therefore how far final polls missed PP+Vox seat totals, plus the current poll spread. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election
- [2023-07-23] Official 2023 result: PP 137 seats (33.1%), Vox 33 (12.4%), so PP+Vox = 170. The Wikipedia summary says PP "fell short of opinion polling expectations", and Vox fell from 52 seats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election
- [2023-07-22] Final-week 2023 polls on the Wikipedia polling table overstated PP+Vox seats. Examples (PP / Vox, with the sum):
  - GAD3: 151–152 / 28–29, about 180.
  - Sigma Dos: 145–150 / 26–29.
  - NC Report: 153–156 / 26–28.
  - Target Point: 153–158 / 25–28.
  - 40dB: 122–136 / 38–42.
  - GESOP: 133–137 / 34–38, about 170, which was close.
  - Misses on the PP+Vox sum were about +10 to +15 for GAD3, Sigma Dos, NC Report and Target Point, about 0 to +5 for GESOP and 40dB, and about +0 for the SocioMétrica midpoint.
  - The PP overestimate was up to about 20 seats. Vox was generally underestimated by those pollsters that put it low and overestimated by about 5–10 by others. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Spanish_general_election
- [2023-07] Before 2023, the pre-election consensus put PP+Vox at roughly 168–183 seats, against an actual 170. 40dB put them at 168 and GAD3 at 175–183. The ranges for Vox alone were wide, at 25–43. https://thespainreport.substack.com/p/4-escenarios-para-despues-del-23
- [2026-10-15] The RTVE poll average (updated 15 Oct) is PP 136 and Vox 66, so PP+Vox = 202. Vote shares are PP 31.5%, Vox 18.7%. https://www.mundiario.com/articulo/politica/quien-tiene-realmente-ventaja-29-n-espana/20261018024207447474.html and https://elecciones29noviembre.com/encuestas/
- [2026-10-18] Individual 2026 poll projections of PP / Vox (sum), with fieldwork dates mostly early to mid October:
  - Hamalgama: 144 / 68 (212).
  - SocioMétrica: 141 / 64 (205).
  - DYM: 139–143 / 61–65.
  - GAD3: 133 / 65 (198).
  - IMOP: 130 / 70 (200).
  - 40dB: 123–140 / 63–74.
  - GESOP: 121–125 / 68–72 (189–197).
  - Sigma Dos, earlier: 140 / 63 (203).
  - The spread of the sum across pollsters is roughly 189–212. https://elecciones29noviembre.com/encuestas/ and https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/general-elections-survey-the-psoe-is-2-6-points-behind-the-pp-but-vox-holds-the-majority-of-the-right-according-to-gesop/
- [2026-10-17] The El Periódico average has PP at 133 seats and Vox at 68, so the sum is about 201. It also reports PP+Vox above 200. https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/encuestas-elecciones-generales-espana-sondeos-12274406
- [2026-10-18] PolitPro's trend model is an outlier at PP 125 and Vox 74 (199), with Sumar at 46. That Sumar figure looks anomalous against other polls, which put Sumar at about 6%. https://politpro.eu/en/spain
- [2026-10-18] The CIS October barometer is a major outlier. It has PSOE at 34%, PP at 22.2% and Vox at 17.1%. The private-poll average has PP at 32.2%. CIS did not show a PP+Vox seat count in the retrieved text. https://www.mundiario.com/articulo/politica/quien-tiene-realmente-ventaja-29-n-espana/20261018024207447474.html
- [2026-03-15] Recent regional results are mixed on poll accuracy. In Castilla y León, PP won 33 seats and Vox 14, and El País noted that polls "closed basically flat" despite Vox rising in February. In Aragón, Vox won 14 seats (+7) and PP 26 (−2), so Vox beat the old baseline by a lot. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Aragonese_regional_election and https://muckrack.com/kiko-llaneras/articles
- [2026-10-18] Tactical risk: PP and Vox are weighing a Senate-focused arrangement, with Vox possibly withdrawing candidates in some districts. Reports say this could reinforce the "useful vote" for PP in the Congress. This is unconfirmed. https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html

BOTTOM LINE: Current poll consensus for PP+Vox is about 198–205 seats (RTVE average 202), with individual polls spanning about 189–212. In 2023, final polls overshot PP+Vox by up to about 10–15 seats (actual 170), and the right underperformed polls. That suggests a downside-skewed error band of roughly ±10–15 seats around the consensus.

NOT FOUND: Any prior-year Oct 18–Nov 30 election window to copy. Official 2019 poll-vs-result seat tables for PP+Vox (not fetched). A CIS PP+Vox seat estimate for October 2026. A rigorous historical average of seat error per Spanish general election.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-17] El Margen Correcto's weekly model (aggregate of 560 polls) gives PP+Vox a median of 198 seats, with a 175–223 range. PP is at 132 (113–151) and Vox at 67 (53–81). The right reaches 176 in 94% of 5,000 simulations. The simulations add a shared bloc-level error of about 2.5 points for the six weeks remaining, because 2023 polls overstated PP and Vox together. This is the first published width for the sum, and it is wider than the pollster spread. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n

- [2026-10-17] The same model corrects for pollster house effects. CIS runs about 5 points below the average on PP and 3.7 above on PSOE. NC Report and DYM run about 1.5 points above on PP. Its averages are PP 31.5%, PSOE 26.9% and Vox 18.7%. The 4.6-point PP lead is up from about 3 a year ago. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n

- [2026-10-17] The Objective Votómetro (Redlines, 10,000 Monte Carlo runs over 52 districts) has PP+Vox at 198–216 seats. It gives a 98.9% chance of a PP-Vox government, five points higher than its previous edition. PP's best case is 145. Vox retains 86.3% of its 2023 voters, against 72% for PP, down from 80%. Only 40% of 2023 Sumar voters would repeat. Aggregators differ on how often the right misses 176, with 1%, 6% and 10% reported. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/

- [2026-10-16] elDiario.es's poll average (reported by Moncloa.com) has PP 135, Vox 66 and PSOE 106, so PP+Vox is 201. Sumar plus Podemos total 13, and its 10,000-run model gives the right a majority in about nine of ten runs. https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630

- [2026-10-09 to 10-10] Fresh 40dB, IMOP and DYM polls all had the right above 176. 40dB gave PP 132 and Vox 66, so 198. IMOP gave PP 130 and Vox 70, with UPN at 1. Sources say private polls put Vox at 61–74 seats. https://www.telemadrid.es/programas/buenos-dias-madrid/PP-y-Vox-rozan-los-200-escaños-en-las-encuestas-para-las-elecciones-del-29N-2-2933126666--20261009105650.html

- [2026-10-12] PP-Vox vote transfer is the main internal risk to the PP seat total. PP's internal study reportedly treats Vox at 22% as the danger line. GAD3 has Vox at 19.2%, 40dB at 18.9% and DYM at 18.2%. Moncloa reports that 20.8% of 2023 PP voters now say Vox. Because D'Hondt works within provinces, a PP-to-Vox shift can leave the combined seat total unchanged. In many small districts the last seat passes between the two right-wing parties. https://bilbaohiria.com/actualidad/feijoo-pp-fuga-votos-vox-abascal-precampana-29n/

- [2026-10-16] Seat conversion: Pollingforecast's seat-law page reproduces the 2023 result exactly in all 52 provinces. Vote-to-seat efficiency is the main structural driver. It models PP at 31.7% of the vote giving about 38.9% of seats, and Vox at 18.7% giving about 18.3%. In 2023, Vox's 12.4% gave only 9.4% of seats. That is a penalty for a mid-sized party, and it shrinks as Vox's vote share rises. https://www.pollingforecast.com/research/spain-seat-law-es?lang=es

- [2026-10-13] Many last seats are very close. ESdiario's district analysis finds that in small districts a few hundred to about 1,300 vote switches decide the last seat, including Palencia (about 300 PP→Vox), La Rioja, Cantabria and Valladolid. Provinces with three to four seats would typically give Vox one seat each. This is an uncertainty on the combined seat count. https://www.esdiario.com/nacional/261013/200153/aun-dudas-votar-provincias-ultimo-escano-29-n-decidirse-punado-votos.html

- [2026-10-18] Tactical coordination: Democrata reports that Abascal has so far rejected PP proposals for electoral coordination and has not announced any Senate withdrawal. He is only weighing pulling candidates where Vox has little chance. This affects the Senate, not Congress seats. https://democrata.es/elecciones-generales-espana/vox-estudia-no-presentarse-senado-en-algunas-provincias-favorecer-pp-29n

- [2026-10-14] Campaign tone: Vox is not attacking the PP and calls their differences "peccata minuta." Abascal urges voters not to trust polls and to vote in person, and he has stoked doubts about postal voting. Público reports Vox is annoyed that Feijóo is competing for Vox voters. The effect is a mobilisation message but a lower risk of a bloc collapse. https://www.eldebate.com/espana/20261014/claves-mensaje-abascal-campana-29n-jugamos-todo_469249.html and https://www.publico.es/politica/vox-molesto-feijoo-intento-competir-precampana-deberia-buscar-centro.html

- [2026-10-14] Left-side mobilisation is the main upside risk for PSOE. CIS fieldwork of 1–6 Oct has 55.7% naming housing as a top problem (up from 37.4% in September). Reuters notes CIS is at odds with most other polls. The housing issue is the mechanism Sánchez is betting on. If it works, a PSOE rebound would come mostly from PP's seats. https://www.thespanisheye.com/2026/10/14/major-rebound-for-pedro-sanchez-as-new-poll-gives-the-psoe-an-almost-12-point-lead/

- [2026-10-17] PolitPro's weighted average (as of Oct 17) is PP 31.9% and PSOE 26.6%, a 5.3-point gap. It gives PSOE a 2% chance of winning and no party a majority. PolitPro's seat total is an outlier, as the earlier reports noted. https://politpro.eu/en/spain/election/parliament/2026

BOTTOM LINE: Models centre PP+Vox near 198–204, but the full simulation range is wide (about 175–223). Realistic uncertainty comes from a shared bloc polling error (2023 overshoot), PP-Vox vote transfers within provinces, and left-side tactical consolidation; the final outcome is about the sum rather than the split.

NOT FOUND: The El País/Llaneras seat percentiles (only a secondary summary, via El Margen Correcto). Any post-18 Oct poll. A PP-Vox Congress coordination deal. The official BOE decree text, which I did not open.

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-12] The average of eight private polls (fieldwork 8–12 Oct) gives PP 135 and Vox 66 seats, so PP+Vox is about 201. By poll, the range is 189–212, and every poll is above 176. Vote shares are PP 31.9%, PSOE 26.5%, Vox 18.7%. PP ranges from 121 to 148 seats and Vox from 61 to 72. Individual polls:
  - GAD3: PP 133, Vox 65 (198).
  - 40dB: PP 132, Vox 66 (198).
  - Sigma Dos: PP 135, Vox 68 (203).
  - NC Report: PP 146–148, Vox 61–64 (about 207–212).
  - DYM: PP 139–143, Vox 61–65 (about 200–208).
  - GESOP: PP 121–125, Vox 68–72 (189–197).
  - IMOP: PP 130, Vox 70 (200).
  - SocioMétrica: PP 141, Vox 64 (205).
  - The 2023 baseline was PP 137 and Vox 33 (170). https://cronicasdelaaxarquia.com/politica/pp-vox-sumarian-201-escanos-media-superarian-mayoria-absoluta-todas-encuestas-29-n
- [2026-10-17] An El Periódico poll aggregate (reported, not fetched) has PP at 31.7% and Vox at 18.9% with 68 seats. The PP seat figure in the summary reads 133, but the same summary says the PP+Vox total exceeds 200. https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20261017/encuestas-elecciones-generales-espana-sondeos-12274406
- [2026-10-17] Periodista Digital (a partisan outlet), citing The Objective/Votómetro, gives PP 202–212 seats on its own and Vox 63–71. The article's own "bloc 200–212" figure is inconsistent with that PP-alone range, so treat the PP number with caution. https://www.periodistadigital.com/politica/partidos-politicos/20261017/encuestas-6-semanas-29-n-psoe-aguanta-pesar-buitre-minguez-subida-vox-70-escanos-compensa-atonia-pp-noticia-689405257633/
- [2026-10-17] An Opina 360 poll for El Plural is a low outlier on the PP side. It shows PP and PSOE tied at 28%, with PP on 119 and PSOE on 118 seats. The Vox figure in the snippet is cut off. https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/espana-10-escanos-penalti-hay-muchas-opciones-psoe-sea-primera-fuerza_801581102
- [2026-10-14] The state CIS barometer (fieldwork 1–6 Oct, 5,025 interviews) puts PSOE at 34.0%, PP at 22.2% and Vox at 17.1%. The CIS publishes no seat projection. Electomanía translated it into PSOE 152, PP 94 and Vox 63 (PP+Vox 157, below 176). Electomanía rates the CIS 3.5/10 in its PollCheck. A La Review analysis says Tezanos-era CIS barometers have mostly overstated the left. https://electomania.es/barometro-del-cis-oct26-la-izquierda-se-dispara-con-el-psoe-en-el-34/
- [2026-10-06 to 10-08] A tweet of a polling aggregate, quoted by 99bitcoins, shows PP 31.3% (129 seats), PSOE 26.9% (106) and Vox 19.4% (69). Reuters reported a Sigma Dos/El Mundo projection of 203 combined PP+Vox seats. https://99bitcoins.com/news/altcoins/spain-election-polymarket-odds/
- [2026-10-17] Prediction markets: Polymarket prices PP to win at about 85% and PSOE at about 17%. Total volume was $114k as of 17 Oct. Kalshi priced PP at 82% on 16 Oct and lists Vox third at about 93%. I found no market on the PP+Vox combined seat count, only winner, vote share and placing markets. The Kalshi page itself returned an error when fetched, so these Kalshi figures come from search snippets. https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-winner
- [2026-10-17] Polymarket's market description says private polling averages project PP+Vox "well above" 176 seats in nearly all simulations. https://polymarket.com/event/spain-general-election-winner
- [2026-10-16] Kalshi lists a market titled "Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote", with no price visible in the snippet. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspainparli/spain-election/kxspainparli-27
- [2026-10-12] Poll-blackout rules: publication of polls is banned 24–28 Nov. The campaign runs 13–27 Nov. https://cronicasdelaaxarquia.com/politica/pp-vox-sumarian-201-escanos-macia-superarian-mayoria-absoluta-todas-encuestas-29-n
- [2023 track record] In 2023, polls overstated the right. Pre-election 40dB gave PP+Vox 168 seats, GAD3 gave 175–183, and the range for PP was 125–154. The actual result was 170 (137+33). Statista noted that the polls' "enthusiastic" right-wing forecasts were not realised. Polymarket's 2023 market on Vox winning over 45 seats resolved No. https://es.statista.com/estadisticas/1401360/elecciones-generales-de-espana-2019-2023-porcentajede-votos-por-partido
- [2026-10-18] PP and Vox are reportedly weighing a Senate tactical deal, with Vox possibly standing down in some districts. This mainly affects the Senate, but could push a "useful vote" for PP in the Congress. https://www.elnacional.cat/es/politica/pp-vox-estudian-unir-fuerzas-en-senado-abascal-podria-retirar-candidaturas-frenar-izquierda-por-que_1711195_102.html

BOTTOM LINE: Private-poll consensus as of mid-October puts PP+Vox at about 200 seats (individual polls 189–212, mean about 201). The CIS-based outlier is about 157. The 2023 polls overestimated PP+Vox by roughly 0–13 seats against the 170 actually won, so the realised total could land below the poll average.

NOT FOUND: A prediction-market or Metaculus community distribution for PP+Vox combined seats. A Kiko Llaneras/El País model with seat percentiles (the 10/3 piece was not retrieved). Any official CIS seat projection. Post-18 Oct polls.

### HIGH CASE
- [2026-10-17] El Margen Correcto's weighted poll model (fetched) puts PP+Vox at a median of 198 seats, with a 5,000-simulation range of 175–223. That range is the best available measure of the high tail: the upper end is about 220+, roughly 25 seats above the median. PP is at a median of 132 (113–151) and Vox at 67 (53–81). The model gives PP+Vox a majority in 94% of runs. It adds a shared-bloc error because the 2023 polls overstated the right. It also adds a six-week drift margin of about 2.5 points per bloc. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-17] The Objective/Redlines Votómetro (fetched) gives PP+Vox 198–216 seats and a 98.9% chance that PP+Vox govern. It puts PP at 32.2%, with a best case of about 145 seats, and Vox at 18.3% (63–71 seats). Its high end of 216 is the highest published aggregator ceiling. It is a partisan-leaning outlet, but the method is disclosed: five-factor weighting and 10,000 Monte Carlo runs. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/
- [2026-10-17] The same Votómetro says Vox keeps 86.3% of its 2023 voters, the highest fidelity of any party. PP retains 72% (down from 80%) and PSOE 65.9%. Vox is the only party gaining in the Votómetro update, so a late Vox surge is the main upside mechanism. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/
- [2026-10-12] The Sigma Dos/El Mundo poll (2,017 interviews) has Vox at 19.1% and 68 seats, its series high. The El Independiente summary says the PP+Vox vote share is about 51%. That is in line with IMOP at 51.3%, DYM at 52.2% and 40dB at 50.8%. The PP+Vox seat total is 203. The seat total rose only because Vox gained as PP lost 5 seats since the earlier Sigma Dos poll. https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/12/una-nueva-encuesta-ratifica-el-crecimiento-meteorico-de-vox-la-solida-mayoria-de-la-derecha-y-el-hundimiento-del-psoe/
- [2026-10-12] The 40dB/El País poll (800 online interviews, fieldwork after the call) gives a joint PP+Vox seat range of 186–214, with 132 for PP and 66 for Vox. PP is at 31.9% (123–140 seats) and Vox at 18.9% (63–74). Its central estimate is about 198, with a top end of 214. https://www.elconstitucional.es/en/national/the-pp-and-vox-maintain-an-absolute-majority-after-sanchez-early-election-the-far-right-could-double-its-seats_8736_102.html
- [2026-10-17] Pollster house effects, per the model's own measurement: CIS puts PP about 5 points below other pollsters and PSOE 3.7 above. NC Report and DYM put PP about 1.5 points above the sector average. A high outcome of 210+ needs PP+Vox vote share to land around 53% or more. Hamalgama already shows this at 53%, with 212 seats. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-17] The same model records that the left cut 7 points from the call-date gap in 2023, and ended above the call-date polls in three of the last five general elections. This is the main case against a high outcome. It also means the high path needs the campaign gap to stay flat or widen. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-16] Kiko Llaneras (cited via bilbaohiria) says the CIS overstated the left in 44 of 45 elections since 2018. The September CIS gave PP+Vox 171 seats, which would be 31 below the polls' mean. If the CIS is treated as biased, the high scenario is more credible than the CIS's alternative. https://bilbaohiria.com/actualidad/kiko-llaneras-cis-sesgo-izquierda-44-de-45-elecciones/
- [2026-10-04] Sigma Dos's first October poll (fieldwork 22 Sep–1 Oct) had PP at 140 and Vox at 63, also 203 combined. The PP+Vox total has been steady near 203 even as the PP/Vox split moved. https://www.electografica.com/2026/10/encuesta-sigmados-261004.html
- [2026-10-02] The Olive Press average of eight pollsters (fieldwork 20 Aug–26 Sep) gave PP+Vox 205, with every poll at 199–212. That was the high point before the call. Reaching 205+ would mean returning to the pre-call level. https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/10/02/spain-election-predictions-who-would-win/
- [2026-10-17] Triggers that would signal a high outcome: the PP "Maricarmen" case damage stays contained, Vox keeps taking from the PP without PSOE gains, and a PP–Vox Senate arrangement or PP-favouring tactical voting concentrates votes. The Votómetro attributes PP's fidelity drop to the Maricarmen case. The Senate deal is unconfirmed. https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-17/votometro-pp-vox-mayoria-absoluta-psoe-izquierda/

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is about 210–220 seats. It needs PP+Vox vote share of about 53%, Vox of 19–20%, and a flat campaign, and the model tail tops out near 223. Against that, the 2023 polling miss and the left's habit of recovering during campaigns weigh on the upside.

NOT FOUND: The El País/Llaneras seat percentile page. Post-18 Oct polls. Any market on PP+Vox combined seats. Official 2019 poll-versus-result seat tables.

### LOW CASE
- [2026-10-17] The EM-Analytics model (Santiago Calvo) puts PP+Vox at a median of 198 seats, with a 175–223 range. That range includes the 176-seat threshold. Medians are PP 132 (113–151) and Vox 67 (53–81). PP+Vox keep a majority in 94% of 5,000 simulations. A shared bloc-level error is built in because the 2023 polls overstated PP and Vox together. A further 2.5-point margin per bloc allows for the six weeks left. The low tail is therefore roughly 175–185. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-17] The same model gives a house-effect calibration for the low case. CIS runs about 5 points below the other pollsters on PP and 3.7 above on PSOE. NC Report and DYM put PP about 1.5 points above the sector average. GESOP and AtlasIntel missed by 2.7–3.3 points in 2023, while 40dB, Cluster17 and EM-Analytics missed by about 1.5. The high PP+Vox polls (NC Report, DYM, Hamalgama) come from the houses that lean right. https://elmargencorrecto.substack.com/p/hay-partido-el-29n
- [2026-10-13] Converses a Catalunya, a critical outlet, reports an El País (Llaneras/Andrino) model run with 20,000 simulations. It has PP+Vox near 200 and a majority in 92% of runs. If the left repeated the 2023 comeback of 7 points, the model still leaves PP+Vox about 186 seats. That is a useful "left rally" floor. A La Vanguardia scenario with a single united left plus 1 million extra left-wing voters brings PP+Vox down to 173–175. The source calls this "demoscopia ficción". https://conversesacatalunya.cat/es/encuestas-octubre-2026/
- [2026-10-13] Poll-quality weighting does not move the vote share much. PP+Vox are on 50.6% across 10 polls, 50.1% across the 7 with PollCheck above 5, and 50.7% across the 4 best (Sociométrica, 40dB, ElectoPanel, GAD3). None of the four puts PSOE ahead. Excluding weaker pollsters therefore does not produce a low case. https://conversesacatalunya.cat/es/encuestas-octubre-2026/
- [2026-10-16] The elDiario.es average, 10,000 simulations, puts PP+Vox at 201 seats (PP 135, Vox 66) with a majority in about 9 of 10 runs. The same model applied a week before the 2023 vote gave a PP+Vox majority in 5 of 10 runs, yet they got 170. A "CIS-based" recalculation gives PP 119 and PSOE 116. https://moncloa.com/2026/10/16/encuestas-29n-psoe-pp-vox-cis-3449630
- [2026-10-14] The Reuters report on the CIS notes fieldwork ran in the first week of October. It was during the housing protests and before the death of eviction victim Maricarmen Abascal on 7 Oct. Housing was named top problem by 55.7%, up 20 points on the previous month. Immigration was second at 20.9%. Sánchez led Feijóo 39.3% to 14.7% as preferred PM. A salience shift from immigration to housing is the main mechanism for a low outcome. Private polls taken after the call show little movement so far. https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/10/14/spain-s-ruling-socialists-lead-in-state-run-poll-ahead-of-snap-election
- [2026-10-14] The 2023 miss in seats, per El Plural: GAD3 gave PP 150 and PSOE 112 against a result of 137 and 121. That is 13 too many for PP and 9 too few for PSOE. The RTVE average ahead of the 2023 vote had PP 142 and Vox 36, so 178 against 170 actual. The poll error was shared across the right bloc, not random. https://www.elplural.com/politica/espana/decian-encuestas-2023-michavila-esconde-entre-ataques-tezanos_801441102
- [2026-10-13] D'Hondt works against a split right in small provinces. Esdiario's projection has Vox winning one seat in each three-seat province (Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Teruel) and in the four-seat ones (Albacete, Burgos, Cáceres, León, La Rioja, Salamanca). Those Vox seats are marginal and depend on Vox sustaining about 18–19%. A drop of 2–3 points would cost Vox many of them without moving PP much. A ForoCoches analysis, a forum post and not authoritative, puts the real threshold at 15–20% or more in small provinces. https://www.esdiario.com/nacional/261013/200153/aun-dudas-votar-provincias-ultimo-escano-29-n-decidirse-punado-votos.html
- [2026-10-17] PollingForecast's methodology page confirms the seat conversion. It uses D'Hondt across 52 provinces with a 3% provincial cutoff. It reproduces the 2023 result exactly, and also every election since 2004. Provinces with 2–5 seats hold about 30% of Congress. A tactical vote on the left, which the PSOE-Frente Amplio "Senate of Progress" and tactical-vote sites like stopderecha.es promote, would act through these small provinces. That is the seat-level mechanism for the low case. https://www.pollingforecast.com/research/spain-seat-law-es?lang=es
- [2026-10-17] The Eurasia Review op-ed cites polls at roughly PP 34% and PSOE 26%. It is an opinion piece and its numbers are higher than the current averages. It is not evidence of a new trend. https://eurasiareview.com/17102026-pm-sanchez-going-going-gone-oped
- [2026-10-12] Al Jazeera frames the call as an effort to rally the left on housing and to "confound the polls". It lists the corruption scandals, the Ceuta handling and the amnesty as counterweights. Sánchez's campaign bets on a late consolidation of left votes, as in 2023, when the PP lead shrank during the campaign. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/far-right-surges-as-crises-threaten-sanchez-could-vox-lead-spain

BOTTOM LINE: A plausible low scenario for PP+Vox is about 175–186 seats. It would need a repeat of the 2023 late left consolidation (El País model: about 186 after a 7-point recovery) together with a shared overstatement by the polls, and possibly a slide in Vox's marginal small-province seats. The low path is a minority risk, since every model keeps the median near 198–201 and a majority in 92–94% of runs. The signals to watch are post-call polls showing PSOE above 29–30%, PP+Vox vote share below 49%, and left unity such as Sumar/Podemos consolidating.

NOT FOUND: Post-18 Oct polls. The El País seat percentiles directly (only a secondhand 20,000-simulation description). Any 2019 poll-versus-result seat error for PP+Vox. An official CIS seat estimate. Any evidence that the PP–Vox Senate arrangement affects the Congress vote.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: what the resolution source currently shows, and whether the value is already known or fixed as of today.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).

## Calibration guidance

- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Markets and experts are priors, not anchors.** If a SAME QUESTION market, analyst consensus, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior — centre near them and widen — and name the specific evidence they lack whenever you move away. RELATED markets are context only.
- **Open bounds carry real mass.** Where a bound is OPEN, the outcome can land beyond it and the question then resolves "below range" / "above range". Put honest probability there (p_below_min / p_above_max in the output) instead of squeezing the distribution inside the displayed range; the season's worst losses were outcomes that landed where the distribution had ~2%.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
  "p10": <number>,
  "p25": <number>,
  "p50": <number>,
  "p75": <number>,
  "p90": <number>,
  "p_below_min": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is BELOW 164.5>,
  "p_above_max": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is ABOVE 215.5>,
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move your p50 by a quarter of your p10-p90 width if false; [] if none>"]
}

Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90). p_below_min is P(outcome < 164.5); p_above_max is P(outcome > 215.5). These must agree with your percentiles: a p10 below the lower bound implies p_below_min > 0.10, a p90 above the upper bound implies p_above_max > 0.10. A mass below ~0.05 on an open side needs a specific reason.