How many county magistrates and city mayors will the KMT win in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

**Resolution source.** The final count will come from the CEC results for the 28 Nov 2026 vote. I treat the "current value" as the KMT's holdings going in and the nominations on the ballot. No result exists yet.

- [2026-10-16] The CEC cleared all 81 executive candidates: 23 in the six special municipalities and 58 in the other 16 counties and cities. 
The KMT and DPP each have 19 candidates.
 The KMT has no nominee in three places: 
Chiayi County, Hsinchu City and Chiayi City
. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-10-16] The KMT therefore has a ceiling of 19 of 22 seats. Its 19 nominees are in:
  - Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung
  - Keelung, Hsinchu County, Miaoli, Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin
  - Pingtung, Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen and Lienchiang
  
  https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-10-18] Baseline, from Wikipedia's election infobox: in 2022 the KMT won 14 seats (50.1% of the vote) and the DPP 5. 
Current seats are listed as KMT 14, DPP 5, TPP 1.
 The 14 includes Miaoli's Chung Tung-chin, who won as an independent. 
He rejoined the KMT on 14 Sep 2025.
 The "one year ago" value is also 14 (the infobox lists 14 current seats). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2026-10-18] Hsinchu City has no KMT nominee because the KMT deferred to the TPP-founded incumbent. 
Kao Hung-an now runs as an independent.
 In Chiayi City the KMT and TPP back TPP's Chang Chi-kai. Both seats are outside the KMT count under the fine print, which counts only KMT-nominated candidates. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202609045002.aspx
- [2026-08-27, via Templeman preview] Kharis Templeman's ratings: 
Likely KMT (3): Taipei, Taoyuan, Miaoli. Leans KMT (5): Taichung, Keelung, Hsinchu County, Yunlin, Hualien, Taitung. Toss-up (2): New Taipei, Penghu. Leans DPP (4): Yilan, Changhua, Chiayi City, Pingtung. Likely DPP (3): Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi County.
 The "Leans KMT (5)" label lists six places. Kinmen and Lienchiang are not in his tiers as shown. 
The KMT is defending 10 open seats.
 https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-10-15] Polling, mostly partisan-sponsored.
  - New Taipei: a Dai Li-an poll (6–8 Oct) has the DPP's Su Chiao-hui at 43.1% against the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan at 30.0%. 
Projected vote share has her ahead by only 4.1 points.
 https://theinitium.com/20261015-whatsnew-taiwan-local-elections-new-taipei-city-mayor/
  - New Taipei, Ujiaotian poll: 
Lee 45.74%, Su 45.18%.
 https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E9%80%99%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E8%97%8D%E7%B6%A0%E7%B7%8A%E5%92%AC%E5%83%85%E5%89%A94-6-%E5%B7%AE%E8%B7%9D-%E7%B6%A0%E7%87%9F%E9%81%B8%E5%B0%87%E5%96%8A%E8%A9%B1%E4%BA%86-051457600.html
- [2026-10-16 to 10-17] Other KMT-commissioned polls:
  - Keelung: 
Hsieh Kuo-liang 42.9%, Tung Tzu-wei 38.3%.
 https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9815763
  - Taichung: 
Johnny Chiang 39.8%, Ho Hsin-chun 28.7%.
 https://udn.com/vote2026/story/124652/9820824
  - Kaohsiung (Aug, Chujuan Tianxia): Lai Jui-lung 47.78%, Ko Chih-en 46.14%. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9681827
- [2026-10-18] Blue-white cooperation is partial. TPP ended its Hsinchu County partnership with the KMT in September. 
The KMT and TPP chose a joint New Taipei candidate in April.
 TPP is backing KMT's Su Ching-chuan in Pingtung. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20261017/3256506.htm
- [2026-10-17] Intra-KMT friction in Changhua: incumbent KMT magistrate Wang Hui-mei skipped the KMT rally for nominee Wei Ping-cheng. Chairperson Cheng Li-wen says winning these races is key to 2028. https://military.china.com/news/13004177/20261017/49799914.html
- [2026-07 forecast] The YouTube commentator Tsai Yu-chieh projected KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. This is one pundit's view, not a model. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/2026%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E8%A1%97%E9%A0%AD%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF-3%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E8%97%8D%E5%A4%A9%E8%AE%8A%E7%B6%A0%E5%9C%B0-032703050.html
- [Schedule] Ballot-order lotteries are on 23 Oct. 
Voting is on 28 Nov. Winners are announced on 4 Dec and take office on 25 Dec.
 The CEC's election-night count on 28 Nov is the next data point. https://www.thenewslens.com/article/266629

BOTTOM LINE: The KMT holds 14 of 22 seats and is fielding 19 nominees, so the plausible range is below the 19 ceiling. The highest-impact toss-ups are New Taipei, Keelung, Taichung, Kaohsiung and Penghu, plus open-seat defences such as Changhua and Yilan. Hsinchu City and Chiayi City will not count for the KMT.

NOT FOUND: The CEC election-results database, since the vote has not happened. I also found no independent, non-partisan polls for Penghu, Hualien, Taitung, Yilan or Changhua. I could not open the Focus Taiwan list or the Taipei Times pages in full.

- [2022-11-26] KMT won 14 of 22 county and city posts, counting Chiayi City, which was held on 2022-12-18. It held 14 before the election, so the net change was 0. 
The vote table lists the KMT at 14 seats and the DPP at 5 (−1).
 The "13 of 21" figure on election night excluded Chiayi City. 
The seats the KMT lost were in Miaoli, Kinmen and Penghu.
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2018-11-24] KMT won 15 seats, up from 6 in 2014 (+9). The DPP fell from 13 to 6. 
KMT gains were Yilan, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi City and Penghu from the DPP, and Kinmen and Hualien from independents.
 https://globaltaiwan.org/2018/11/2018-taiwan-local-elections-what-happened/
- [2014-11-29] KMT won only 6 seats. 
It had held 14 of 22 before the election.
 That is an −8 swing, the largest single-cycle loss in this series. 
The DPP won 13 seats.
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [Historical series] KMT seat counts in the cycles above, using each cycle's own denominator: 2005–06 15 of 25, 2009 12 of 17, 2014 6 of 22, 2018 15 of 22, 2022 14 of 22. 
The 2005–06 count was 15 of 25 seats.
 
In 2009 the KMT won 12 seats, up from 11.
 Cycle-to-cycle changes since 2014 have been +9, −1 and −8 (2014 vs. the prior cycle), so swings of 8–9 seats have happened in a single election. These come in midterm "wave" years against the incumbent president's party. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2022-11-26] The 2022 KMT result was close to the pre-election consensus of a strong KMT showing. The DPP lost every northern seat, including Taipei, Taoyuan and Keelung. 
The KMT won Taipei and Taoyuan, which it had lost in 2014.
 The largest surprises were minor-seat losses, Miaoli (to a KMT rebel running as an independent), Kinmen and Penghu. In 2018 the Kaohsiung loss was unexpected: 
the DPP lost Kaohsiung, which it had not lost in 20 years, and the KMT candidate won by 9.1%.
 https://taiwaninsight.org/2018/11/29/taiwan-elections-2018-the-new-referendum-law-and-the-rejection-of-the-dpp/
- [2026-10-16] The CEC approved all 81 executive candidates, which is 23 for the six special municipalities and 58 for counties and cities. 
The KMT and DPP each nominated 19 candidates for these posts.
 Taoyuan is a two-candidate race. Election day is 2026-11-28, with results certified by 2026-12-04, before the 2026-11-29 resolution date. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-09-04] KMT formally holds 13 seats from the 2022 election, plus Miaoli's Chung Tung-chin. 
UDN says the KMT's formally nominated 13 seats were joined by independent Chung, who rejoined the KMT on 2025-09-14.
 The KMT and TPP are running joint candidates in New Taipei (Lee Szu-chuan), Hsinchu City, Chiayi City and Yilan. In Hsinchu City the backed candidate is independent Ann Kao. In Chiayi City the joint candidate is Chang Chi-kai, who is TPP. Neither would count as KMT-nominated under the fine print. The count therefore depends on how "nominated" is applied to joint candidates. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9121921
- [2026-09-07] The TPOC model, an unofficial model, has the KMT ahead in 14 counties and cities, the DPP in 7 and an independent in 1. 
It shows New Taipei and Hsinchu County within 2 points.
 The DPP-leaning seats are Yilan, Changhua, Chiayi County, Chiayi City, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung. The 14 KMT-leaning seats include Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen and Lienchiang. I read this only as a search snippet because the page returned 403. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca
- [2026-07-30] YouTuber/street pollster Tsai Yu-chieh forecast KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. 
That is his own estimate and not a scientific poll.
 He had Yilan and Changhua flipping to the DPP. Yilan is affected by KMT incumbent Lin Zi-miao's court conviction. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20260730004987-260407
- [2026-10-17] Changhua is open because the incumbent is term-limited, and Wang Hui-mei has been absent from KMT rallies amid nomination disputes. KMT candidate Wei Ping-cheng faces DPP's Chen Su-yue. Independents Chiu Chien-fu and Chen Chung-chia are also running. 
The CommonWealth Magazine candidate list covers all 22 races.
 https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
- [2026-10-18] The KMT's current seats are 14 (Wikipedia). The seats are up for re-election in a midterm, where the president's party historically does badly (DPP lost seats in 2018 and 2022). That favours holding most of them, though there are open-seat risks in Changhua, Yilan and Hsinchu County. 
Wikipedia shows the KMT with 14 current seats, the DPP 5 and the TPP 1.
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [Forecast accuracy] I found no systematic record of how accurate prior seat-count forecasts were. The 2022 consensus of a KMT landslide was about right on the headline. Seat-count errors came from small, volatile races (Miaoli, Kinmen, Penghu). The 2026 forecasts above are an unofficial model and a pundit, with no published poll-aggregate seat count.

BOTTOM LINE: Historical KMT outcomes are 6, 15 and 14 seats in 2014, 2018 and 2022, and 2026 forecasts cluster around 13–14. The typical swing is ±1–2 seats when no wave is in play, but swings of 8–9 have happened. The main uncertainty is how joint KMT-TPP and independent-backed seats are counted under "officially nominated by the KMT".

NOT FOUND: An official CEC or KMT list of the exact number of KMT-nominated candidates, since the CEC figure of 19 may include non-county seats. A professional polling-based seat forecast from the last two weeks. A study of how accurate past seat forecasts were. A Wikipedia fetch of the 2026 page, which I did not do. The TPOC page could not be fetched.

- [2026-10-14] The Taipei race has moved since the earlier reports. Storm Media cites a TVBS poll with Chiang Wan-an (KMT) at 49% and Puma Shen (DPP) at 41%. The gap was 28 points in May. KMT officials say the "Yang Wave" is mostly energising the DPP base. They also say Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung and Taoyuan share a commuter belt, with about 700,000 New Taipei residents and about 100,000 Keelung residents commuting into Taipei. A Taipei loss would therefore raise risk in neighbouring seats too. https://world.storm.mg/articles/1171544
- [2026-10-18] Taipei Times editorial on the same TVBS series: the lead fell from 28 points to 8 this month. It says Chiang was widely expected to win easily a few months ago. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/10/18/2003866148
- [2026-09-22] The Taipei Trust in Democracy Association poll (pollster Tai Li-an, Sept 16–18, n=1,076) had Chiang at 41.7% and Shen at 40.5%. Other Taipei polls show a wide spread: Z.Media in June had Chiang +28 and TPOC in August had Chiang +15. Pollster house effects drive much of the disagreement. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6444322
- [2026-08-28] Templeman's structural argument (Aug 28 post): the KMT is defending 10 open seats and few incumbents, and incumbency is hard to beat without a national wave. He counts the KMT as holding 16 of 22 going in, which differs from the 14 used elsewhere. He assigns leaners and likely seats to give about 12 KMT and 7 DPP, with 1 independent. New Taipei and Penghu are coin flips. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-08-28] On blue-white coordination, Templeman says the TPP has stood down in every county-level race it lost in the joint polling primary, with no blue-white splits. The KMT yielded in Hsinchu City and, with the TPP, backed an independent in Chiayi County. In the other 19 localities the KMT runs a candidate with TPP backing. Cooperation is therefore a driver that mostly favours the KMT. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-10-12] TPOC's model has KMT's You Shu-chen (游淑貞) in Hualien at 54.35%. The two independents are at 23.55% and 22.10%. The pan-blue split is among independents, not against the KMT nominee. That leaves Hualien as a likely hold. https://ctinews.com/news/items/8knJqv0Yxo
- [2026-09-21] In Kinmen, a KMT-commissioned poll (Yu-Ching Indicator) has Chen Yu-chen at 45.4% against 10.7% for the runner-up independent. Six independents split the non-KMT vote. Kinmen is a likely gain or hold, although the poll is partisan. https://www.kmdn.gov.tw/1117/1271/1272/590324/
- [2026-08-03] Penghu is the likeliest flip toward the KMT. The DPP's Chen Kuang-fu did not run again, and the DPP nominated Wu Shu-chin. An ETtoday poll (Jul 14–Aug 3) shows KMT's Chen Chen-chung at 30.3%, DPP's Wu at 21.0% and independent Yeh Chu-lin at 17.8%. The Penghu field has six candidates. Source is the Chinese Wikipedia poll table (the poll page was last seen updated Oct 18). https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5
- [2026-10-17] Taichung is contested. A Trust Taiwan Friends poll (reported in LTN around Oct 13) had DPP's Ho Hsin-chun within 1.9 points of KMT's Johnny Chiang, with over 30% undecided. Yahoo reports a separate poll with Ho ahead by 1.6 points. The KMT caucus poll released today (Shih Hsin, Oct 15–16, n=1,070) shows Chiang +11.1. Taichung is no longer a safe "leans KMT" seat. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9820824 and https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5603302
- [2026-09-07] On Hsinchu County, TPOC's model has KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying at 50.91% against DPP's Cheng Chao-fang at 49.09%. Storm Media (Oct 14) reports that Cheng avoids showing a DPP identity in a KMT-leaning county. That suggests the "wave" is not winning over centrists there. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca
- [2026-05-04] Yilan: the blue-white polling primary found KMT's Wu Tsung-hsien at 27.6% against DPP's Lin Kuo-chang at 28.9% as a joint nominee. TPP's Chen Wan-hui would have polled 21.1%. The KMT nominee therefore started slightly behind. The KMT nominee also won a close internal primary (Feb 28) over Chang Sheng-te. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260504/3159772.htm
- [2026-10-16] Candidate lists confirm KMT-labelled nominees in Changhua (Wei Ping-cheng, who faces two independents plus DPP's Chen Su-yue) and Penghu, Kinmen and Pingtung (Su Ching-chuan against incumbent DPP Chou Chun-mi). PTS also lists independent Lin Chih-cheng in Taipei and independent Su Hui-huang in New Taipei. The KMT cannot field more than the 19 nominees, so every seat in the 12–16 range depends on about eight contested races. https://news.pts.org.tw/article/801606

BOTTOM LINE: The count turns on a short chain: Taipei and New Taipei resisting the "Ocean Wave" (the TVBS Taipei lead is now 8 points), Taichung and Keelung holding, open-seat defences in Changhua and Yilan, and gains in Penghu or Kinmen offsetting any losses. Structural analysis (Templeman) points to roughly 12, while party sources and the pundit give 13–14.

NOT FOUND: A neutral, post-Oct 10 poll for Changhua, Yilan, Pingtung, Penghu, Taitung or Yunlin. Also not found: an official KMT list that confirms the nominee count, and any published seat-count distribution.

- [2026-10-16] The Central Election Commission approved all 81 executive candidates, and the KMT and DPP each nominated 19 for the 22 posts. The KMT's ceiling under the "officially nominated" rule is therefore 19. It is not running in Hsinchu City (supporting TPP incumbent Kao Hung-an), Chiayi City (supporting TPP's Chang Chi-kai) or Chiayi County (backing independent Wu Pin-jui). Vote is 2026-11-28. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-10-18] Baseline: in 2022 the KMT won 14 of 22 seats (DPP 5, TPP 2, independents 2 in some counts). Wikipedia's 2022 table lists KMT 14, DPP 5, TPP 2. The KMT currently holds 14 seats, 4 of them special municipalities and 10 counties or cities. The KMT won 15 seats in both 2018 and 2005-06. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2026-09-07] Party self-estimate (media-reported, internal): KMT insiders expect 13–14 seats, and say repeating 2022 is "nearly unrealistic". Their assessment is that they hold 4 of the 6 special municipalities, with Changhua, Chiayi City and Yilan at roughly 50-50. They see a chance to regain Kinmen and Penghu. Chiayi City is a seat the KMT is not contesting, so it does not count toward its total. Reported via a 163.com repost of Taiwanese media, not a primary source. https://www.163.com/dy/article/L66FPFP20556CHBN.html
- [2026-09-07] DPP target is "hold 7, hope for 8, strive for 9", in the same report. Reaching 9 would require winning New Taipei. https://www.163.com/dy/article/L66FPFP20556CHBN.html
- [2026-07-30] Independent forecast (YouTuber/street pollster Tsai Yu-chieh, not a rigorous model): KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. He sees Yilan, Chiayi City and Changhua flipping to the DPP. He calls New Taipei and Penghu the hardest to call. https://ctinews.com/news/items/kYaDJgk4n9
- [2026-10-13/15] New Taipei polls conflict. One poll (Dai Li-an, 13 Oct) has DPP's Su Chiao-hui at 43.1% against KMT's Lee Szu-chuan at 30.0%. An earlier poll (Juwen Tianxia, about 15 Aug) had Lee at 45.74% and Su at 45.18%. This suggests the KMT's 14th seat is at risk. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E7%82%B8%E8%A3%82%E4%BA%86-%E6%88%B4%E7%AB%8B%E5%AE%89%E9%A9%9A%E7%88%86%E5%8F%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF-%E5%B0%87%E6%9C%89%E8%90%BD%E5%B7%AE-%E9%BB%9E%E5%90%8D-%E6%B4%8B%E6%B5%81%E6%95%88%E6%87%89-062945980.html
- [2026-10-17] KMT-commissioned polls (partisan): Taichung, Chiang Chi-chen 39.8% against DPP's Ho Hsin-chun 28.7%. Keelung (15 Oct, KMT party branch poll), incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang 42.9% against Tung Tzu-wei 38.3%. A TVBS poll before the Taipei debate reportedly had Chiang Wan-an behind Puma Shen by 11%. That is a headline fragment and I did not verify it. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E8%97%8D%E5%86%8D%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E6%B1%9F%E5%95%9F%E8%87%A3%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E9%A0%98%E5%85%88-%E7%B6%A0%E5%8F%8D%E8%AD%8F-%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E8%80%85%E5%BF%AB%E6%94%BE%E5%81%87%E5%8E%BB-071157554.html
- [2026-07-29] A Formosa Foundation poll found 34.5% of respondents wanted the DPP to win more seats, 31.2% the KMT and 12.8% the TPP. Among respondents with no party leaning, 47.3% were undecided. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E6%8F%AD%E8%97%8D%E7%B6%A0%E7%99%BD-%E6%81%90%E6%80%96%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%9B%A4-%E9%81%B8%E6%88%B0%E6%B1%BA%E5%8B%9D%E9%97%9C%E9%8D%B5%E7%AB%9F%E6%98%AF%E9%80%99%E7%BE%A4%E4%BA%BA-043348868.html
- [2026-10-10 approx.] Prediction market: Polymarket "Party Winner" (which party wins the most executive seats) prices the KMT at about 88%, the DPP at about 13% and the TPP below 1%. Volume is about $221k. It resolves on official CEC results and independents don't count for any party. It does not give a seat-count distribution. Earlier readings were 88% at open (Apr), 81–83% (2 Apr) and 84% (late Jun). A Polymarket dashboard snapshot shows 71% KMT, but its date is unclear. Taiwan has blocked Polymarket and Kalshi over election-betting rules. https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner/will-kuomintang-kmt-win-the-most-head-of-local-government-elections-in-the-2026-taiwan-local-elections
- [2026-09-21] Taipei market on Octagon AI: Chiang Wan-an (KMT) at 81% market and 75.4% model. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/international-elections/taipei-mayoral-election-winner/
- [2026-08 to 2026-10] KMT chair Cheng Li-wun said 2022 was a high mark and "maintaining" it would already be a strong result. She named Chiayi City and Changhua as the hardest of the KMT-held seats, and Hsinchu County and Yilan as "cautiously optimistic". She has not named a seat target in the sources I found. Note that Chiayi City is no longer a KMT-nominated seat. https://udn.com/news/story/6656/9652953
- [2026-10-17] Changhua is a specific risk: incumbent Wang Hui-mei (KMT member who was not renominated) skipped KMT rallies for nominee Wei Ping-cheng. The DPP's Chen Su-yue is running. Reported by Liberty Times and ETtoday. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
- Track record: pre-election seat estimates in Taiwan are usually party-sourced and polls are often party-commissioned. I found no assessment of how accurate such forecasts have been. The KMT's 2022 result (14) was close to its pre-election expectations as I remember them, but I did not verify that this cycle.

BOTTOM LINE: The consensus range is about 12–14 KMT-nominated seats. The KMT's own estimate is 13–14, the one independent forecaster says 13, and the KMT is not contesting Hsinchu City, Chiayi City or Chiayi County. Downside risks are New Taipei, Changhua, Yilan and possibly Taipei. The upside is Kinmen or Penghu, and the Polymarket party-winner market only shows the KMT as favorite (about 88%) for the most seats.

NOT FOUND: No published seat-count probability distribution, Polymarket or Metaculus market on the exact KMT seat count, official government projection, or academic or poll-aggregator seat model. I also did not find a documented accuracy review of past Taiwanese local-election seat forecasts.

- [2026-10-17] Most of the late-cycle public polling in the Wikipedia poll table (last edited 17 Oct) favours the KMT in the north and centre. Taipei: TVBS (3–7 Oct) has Chiang 49%, Shen 41%. Taoyuan: a September poll has Chang 47.0%, Huang 25.9%. Taichung: Shih Hsin (15–16 Oct) has Chiang 39.8%, Ho 28.7%, and TVBS (7–11 Sep) had 45.1% to 32.5%. A high case needs all three to hold and also needs New Taipei. The other New Taipei polls are not uniformly bad for the KMT: TVBS (29 Sep–2 Oct) has Lee 42.6%, Su 35.9%, and Juwen Tianxia has Lee ahead by 0.6 points. The 43.1–30.0 DPP lead came from the Hsin-min Association poll. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5
- [2026-08-28] Templeman's tiers, read as KMT-nominated seats, give a clean ceiling. Safe, Likely and Leans KMT total 12 (the "Leans KMT (5)" label actually lists six places). Adding the two toss-ups, New Taipei and Penghu, gives 14. Adding the two KMT-nominated "Leans DPP" seats, Yilan and Changhua, gives 16. Pingtung would be a 17th. Chiayi City is outside the KMT count. His own base case was 12 KMT to 7 DPP, with the toss-ups left to coin flips. So the high scenario is 15–16, and 17 or more would need a DPP-wave failure in the south. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-08-28] Templeman says the KMT–TPP cooperation is holding up "surprisingly well", with no blue-white splits in any county-level executive race except Hsinchu County's Jhubei city race. The TPP's nominees stood down after losing the joint polling primaries. The KMT is running a TPP-backed candidate in 19 localities. The high path depends on this holding. The TPP's Sept 2026 break in Hsinchu County is the one visible crack. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-09-17] Kinmen looks like a near-certain KMT gain-back: the KMT-commissioned poll has Chen Yu-chen at 45.4%. The runner-up, independent Li Wen-liang, is at 10.7%. Six independents split the rest, and none of the other five exceeds 3.5%. Local reporting says the other large clans, Li and Yang, are not fielding candidates, and Chen has clan backing. Kinmen is KMT-held in the tally, so it is a hold, not a gain, in the count of 14. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9761297
- [2026-10-12] Kinmen is described as "one blue versus six independents". Chen is still clearly ahead, and the contest is for second place. The pan-blue vote is not split there, so Kinmen is not a downside risk. https://vip.udn.com/vip/story/121160/9807702
- [2026-10-17] Penghu is the best flip candidate. The Wikipedia page lists the DPP nominee as Wu Shu-chin (incumbent Chen Kuang-fu is not on the ballot) against KMT's Chen Chen-chung. Independents Yeh Chu-lin and Chen Chin-chuan are also running, and the TSU has a candidate. The earlier March poll had the DPP at 30.4%, the KMT at 10.7% and Yeh at 17.8%. Those numbers pre-date the DPP nominee switch. A fragmented non-DPP field is a risk as well as a chance for the KMT. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89
- [2026-07-30] Pundit Tsai Yu-chieh's mid-range case is KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. The eastern seats he rates strongly KMT are Hualien (Yu Shu-chen 43%, with two independents splitting the non-KMT vote at 33% and 24%) and Taitung (Wu Hsiu-hua 55%, DPP 24%, independent 21%). Splits among non-KMT challengers are a mechanism that lifts the KMT floor in the east. https://www.ftvnews.com/news/detail/2026731W0271
- [2026-05-04] Yilan is the KMT's most plausible high-end flip against the lean-DPP rating, but evidence is thin. The joint blue-white primary poll showed Wu Tsung-hsien trailing the DPP's Lin Kuo-chang 27.6% to 28.9%. That is a 1.3-point gap, within the margin of error. TVBS (Mar) had Lin 33%, Wu 28%, and 53% of TPP supporters would shift to Wu in a two-way race. This is an old poll. I found no newer independent Yilan poll. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260504/3159772.htm
- [2026-10-12] Yunlin, Miaoli and Nantou look safe on current evidence. A Juwen Tianxia poll (May) had Chang Chia-chun 49.52%, ahead of the DPP's Liu Chien-kuo by 10.6 points. Nantou and Miaoli both have incumbents. The high case needs no surprise losses among these incumbent-held seats. Incumbents are rarely beaten without a national wave, which is Templeman's central structural point. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-10-17] The Changhua split is the main internal risk to the high path. Magistrate Wang Hui-mei again missed the KMT rally for Wei Ping-cheng, and the DPP's Chen Su-yue is the favourite among analysts. Two independents, Chiu Chien-fu and Chen Chung-chia, are also on the ballot, and they may draw votes from either side. The high case needs either an independent splitting the non-KMT vote or Wang's faction coming back, and neither is confirmed. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
- [2026-09-07] The TPOC model's 14 KMT-leading seats include New Taipei and Hsinchu County, both within 2 points. This is the only model-based seat count I found, and its ceiling is 14. No published model or poll aggregate puts the KMT above 14. A 15–16 result would therefore beat every available estimate and need the toss-ups and one lean-DPP seat (Changhua or Yilan) to go the KMT's way. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca
- [2026-10-12] A signal that would move toward the high end: late-campaign polls showing Su leading Lee by less than 2 points in New Taipei, a narrow Yilan result, and Wang Hui-mei joining Wei's events in Changhua. A statutory poll blackout starts on 18 Nov (10 days before the vote), so these signals have about 4 weeks to appear. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is 15–16 KMT-nominated seats. It needs Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, New Taipei and Penghu plus at least one of Yilan or Changhua. No source projects more than 14, and 17 or more would need the south's lean-DPP seats such as Pingtung to flip as well. It does not look likely, and the one-seat-higher outcomes (15) are the realistic upside.

NOT FOUND: Any non-partisan poll for Yilan or Changhua from the last 60 days. Any published seat model above 14 KMT seats. A Hualien or Taitung poll from October.

- [2026-10-14] Storm Media (English) reports a TVBS poll with Taipei's Chiang Wan-an (KMT) at 49% and Puma Shen (DPP) at 41%. The gap was 28 points in May. KMT officials told the outlet they are losing the online fight and that TPP supporters have gone quiet. This is the main low-scenario signal. The 2022 consensus was that Taipei was safe, and this poll makes it a real contest. The same article says about 700,000 New Taipei residents and about 100,000 Keelung residents commute into Taipei. Strategists therefore see a Shen effect spilling into New Taipei and Keelung, so a Taipei swing could pull those two seats down with it. https://world.storm.mg/articles/1171544

- [2026-10-14] Storm's KMT sources also say the "Yang Wave" is mostly mobilising DPP loyalists. They expect it to raise DPP turnout, not convert centrists. Younger KMT councilors call it "very dangerous" if backing Shen becomes seen as cool. That is a turnout mechanism that could hit several northern seats at once. https://world.storm.mg/articles/1171544

- [2026-10-15] Kalshi had Chiang at 64% to win Taipei and Shen at 38% (the two sum to over 100%). That is well below the Octagon market reading of 81% from Sept 20. The Yahoo online poll that drove the Sept 20 repricing drew 42,700 users, so it is a self-selected sample and not a scientific poll. The market has moved against the KMT in about four weeks. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtaipeimayor/taipei-mayoral-election-winner/kxtaipeimayor-26nov28

- [2026-06-01] The Global Views (Gvm) poll, fielded 2 Mar–14 Apr with 14,251 respondents, found the DPP ahead of the KMT in Yilan, 27.4% to 20.0%. Adding the TPP's 2.2% to the KMT still left it 5 points behind. The poll also showed Changhua with the KMT ahead by only 5.4 points (26.2% to 20.8%), Yunlin ahead by 5.9 points, and Penghu with the DPP ahead. In every case more than 45% were undecided. This is the only large-sample, non-partisan seat-by-seat poll I found. It shows Yilan as the most likely KMT-held seat to flip. https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/130553

- [2026-07-30] The Tsai Yu-chieh forecast (KMT 13) already includes losses in Yilan, Changhua and Chiayi City. Its Yilan figure is DPP's Lin Kuo-chang 53% to KMT's Wu Tsung-hsien 47%. It cites an internal poll showing Wu 1.3 points behind. It has Penghu as a three-way tie: DPP 35%, independent Yeh Chu-lin 33%, KMT's Chen Chen-chung 32%. So Penghu is an additional loss. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20260730004987-260407

- [2026-03-23] A TVBS poll in Yilan had the DPP's Lin at 33%, the KMT's Wu at 28% and the TPP's Chen Wan-hui at 8%. The KMT and TPP later chose Wu as their joint candidate through a poll in early May, per Chinese Wikipedia. Wu therefore carries the unified vote, but he has trailed in all three of the polls above. Incumbent Lin Tzu-miao's 12.5-year first-instance sentence is the drag. https://cc.tvbs.com.tw/portal/file/poll_center/2026/20260323/19c44cdc976c0baac442963d0f74e3bd.pdf

- [2026-06-01] In Changhua the Gvm poll flagged a possible four-way field. That has happened: independent Chiu Chien-fu has split from the DPP. The pan-green split may help the KMT, while the KMT's own nomination dispute, with Wang Hui-mei absent from rallies as of Oct 17, may hurt it. The net effect is unclear. The 2022 Miaoli loss to a KMT rebel shows how such splits cost the party seats. https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/130553

- [2026-10-18] The Hsinchu County race is close in the TPOC model. It shows KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying at about 50.9% against the DPP's Cheng Chao-fang. That is within one point and is a "strong contest" seat. The TPP broke its partnership with the KMT there in September. A DPP win in Hsinchu County would be a loss beyond the usual list of at-risk seats. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca

- [2026-10-18] The same TPOC model has New Taipei at KMT 50.58% to DPP 49.42%. It notes that online buzz favours the DPP's Su Chiao-hui. The model's 14 KMT seats include Penghu, Hsinchu County and New Taipei, which are all within a few points. A plausible low path therefore needs only the tightest seats to go the other way: New Taipei, Hsinchu County, Yilan, Changhua and Penghu. That would leave the KMT with about 9–11 seats if Taipei and Keelung held. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca

- [2026-09-21] Kinmen, the KMT's own commissioned poll, has Chen Yu-chen at 45.4% against 10.7% for the top independent. The poll is partisan. Its sample showed the six independents together at 17.0%. Kinmen and Lienchiang look safe, so the floor is limited by about 2 safe island seats plus Taipei, Taoyuan, Miaoli, Nantou, Taitung and Hualien. Hualien is a three-way contest, with KMT's You Shu-chen at 43% against two independents totalling 57% in Tsai's forecast. https://www.kmdn.gov.tw/1117/1271/1272/590324/

- [2026-10-11] Commentator Huang Wei-han said the KMT could lose "5+2" seats. He named Hsinchu County, Changhua, Chiayi, Yilan, New Taipei and Keelung as at risk, and said Tsai Ing-wen's role as DPP campaign head adds a co-occurrence effect. KMT vice chair Hsiao Hsu-tsen conceded the party is "fearful and cautious". That is a media-pundit view and an acknowledgement from the party, not data. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%9C%8B%E6%B0%91%E9%BB%A82026%E6%9C%80%E6%85%98%E6%81%90%E4%B8%9F5-2%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82-%E9%BB%83%E6%9A%90%E7%80%9A%E4%BC%B03%E6%88%B0%E5%8D%80%E5%B7%B2%E8%A2%AB%E7%BF%BB%E7%9B%A4-%E8%94%A1%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E6%93%8D%E7%9B%A4%E6%9C%89%E5%85%B1%E4%BC%B4%E6%95%88%E6%87%89-130800606.html

BOTTOM LINE: A low outcome of about 9–11 KMT seats needs the Taipei-led northern swing to pull in New Taipei, Keelung or Hsinchu County, on top of losing Yilan, Changhua and Penghu. Signals would be Taipei polls going to a tie, and the Kalshi Taipei price falling further. Independent polls after the Oct 23 ballot-order lottery would also show it.

NOT FOUND: Non-partisan polls from the last two weeks for Yilan, Changhua, Penghu and Hsinchu County. A quantitative estimate of how much a Taipei swing carries into New Taipei and Keelung. Kalshi and Polymarket prices on the KMT seat total. The TVBS poll sample details behind the 49–41 Taipei figure.

15 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-17] KMT Chair Cheng Li-wen Launches Major Changhua Campaign Rally for Wei Ping-cheng
中华网军事频道 — https://military.china.com/news/13004177/20261017/49799914.html
  - On October 17, 2026, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li-wen announced the launch of a major campaign rally in Changhua County, where she will serve as the head of the campaign headquarters for KMT candidate Wei Ping-cheng.
  - During an event attended by the newly formed '26 Township, Three Chiefs, and Elite County Policy Advisory Group', Cheng invited several former ministers from the Ma Ying-jeou administration to join Wei's advisory team, including former Premier Chen Chung and water expert Li Hung-yuan, with New Taipei City Deputy Mayor Liu Ho-jan serving as the group's convener.
  - Cheng stated that polling results in Changhua are favorable and urged all non-Green Party supporters to attend the first joint rally for central Taiwan counties scheduled for October 17.
  - The advisory team, which also includes former Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Chairman Chang Hsien-yao, has already prepared a policy white paper for Wei, who has not yet taken office.
  - Notably, incumbent Changhua County Magistrate Wang Hui-mei did not attend the event.
  - Cheng emphasized that winning the 2026 county and city elections is a crucial step toward victory in the 2028 presidential election.

[2026-10-17] Changhua County Magistrate Race Heats Up as DPP and KMT Hold Major Rallies
Liberty Times Net — https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
  - On October 17, 2026, the election for the position of Changhua County Magistrate in Taiwan intensified during the pre-election weekend, with both the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) holding major rallies.
  - The DPP candidate, Chen Su-yue, held a founding ceremony for four major support groups at her campaign headquarters, with DPP Secretary-General Xu Guoyong present to support her.
  - Meanwhile, the KMT held a joint rally in Yuanlin City focused on a referendum regarding AI and nuclear power.
  - KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen, Legislative Yuan President Han Kuo-yu, and Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiu-yan delivered speeches alongside KMT Changhua candidate Wei Ping-cheng, Taichung candidate Chiang Chi-chen, Nantou candidate Hsu Shu-hua, and Yunlin candidate Chang Chia-chun.
  - The KMT rally aimed to mobilize approximately 11,000 attendees.
  - The article describes the events as a heated contest between the two major political parties.

[2026-10-17] Nantou City Mayoral Race: Three-Way Contest Reshapes KMT-DPP Dynamic
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7325/9821388
  - In the upcoming October 2026 Nantou City mayoral election in Taiwan, three candidates are competing to reshape the traditional Kuomintang (KMT) vs.
  - Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) landscape.
  - Incumbent KMT candidate Zhang Jia-Zhe is seeking re-election, highlighting four years of achievements including smart roadside parking, timed garbage collection, 'Happy Bus' services, and birth subsidies, while proposing a blueprint for industry, youth, and tourism; he also pledges cooperation with Nantou County Magistrate Xu Shu-Hua.
  - The DPP has nominated County Councilor Shen Su-Zheng, who identifies population decline and youth outmigration as key issues, proposing a 'Nantou Trilogy' to improve labor conditions, enhance regional transportation, and revitalize the Maoluo Creek area to create local jobs.
  - Independent candidate Lin Fu-Shen, a former sanitation chief, campaigns on a non-partisan platform addressing roads, parking, traffic, and local industry.
  - In the 2022 election, Zhang Jia-Zhe won with approximately 54% of the vote against the DPP's 45%, but the addition of Lin Fu-Shen is expected to alter vote distribution.
  - Key battlegrounds include the future of the Nangang Industrial Park and strategies to retain youth.

[2026-10-17] KMT and TPP Leaders Unite for 2026 Pingtung County Election
ETtoday新聞雲 — https://www.ettoday.net/news/20261017/3256506.htm
  - On October 17, 2026, in Pingtung, Taiwan, KMT legislator Su Ching-chuan held the founding ceremony for his campaign headquarters for the 2026 Pingtung County magistrate election.
  - Lin Yu-hsien, Chairman of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) Pingtung County branch and a candidate for county councilor, led a TPP delegation to the event, advocating for a comprehensive 'Blue-White Alliance' (KMT-TPP cooperation).
  - Lin called for unified cooperation across all levels of the election, from village chiefs to the county magistrate race, with the goal of achieving a 'grand slam' victory.
  - TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang appeared in a pre-recorded video message, congratulating the launch and urging supporters to consolidate their votes for Pingtung.
  - The event concluded with Lin and the TPP team chanting the slogan 'Blue-White Alliance, Grand Slam' to the audience.

[2026-10-16] Taiwan CEC Approves All 81 Executive Candidates for 2026 Local Elections; 10 Council Candidates Disqualified
風傳媒 — https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
  - On October 16, 2026, the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Taiwan concluded its review of candidate qualifications for the upcoming 2026 local elections, scheduled to take place in 43 days.
  - The CEC approved all 81 candidates for executive positions, including 23 mayors for the six special municipalities and 58 county and city mayors.
  - The Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) each nominated 19 candidates for these positions.
  - The article notes that the competition is most intense in Kinmen County, where 7 candidates registered, followed by Penghu County with 6.
  - In the six special municipalities, Taipei City had the highest number of candidates with 6, while Taoyuan City had the least with 2, specifically KMT's Zhang Shan-zheng and DPP's Huang Shih-chieh.
  - The review also resulted in the disqualification of 10 candidates for the legislative seats (municipal and county/city councilors).
  - Specifically, one candidate for Taipei City Councilor, You Zhi-bin, was disqualified because he registered his household in Taiwan less than 10 years ago (on April 16, 2025) after holding a Mainland China household registration.
  - Additionally, four candidates were barred due to criminal convictions: Lin Cheng-feng (New Taipei City) for money laundering, Zheng Bo-qi (Taichung City) for fraud, Cao Wei-kuo (Tainan City) for gun control violations, and Xiao Xiang-han (Taoyuan City) for pending execution of a sentence related to obstruction of public service.
  - In the county/city councilor race, 887 out of 892 registrants were approved, with 5 disqualified.
  - The CEC will publish the property declarations of the approved candidates online for one year starting from the list's approval, and candidate ballot order lotteries are scheduled for October 23, 2026.

[2026-10-16] KMT's 10,000-Person Rally in Changhua: Wang Huimei Absent Again Amid Nomination Disputes
ETtoday新聞雲 — https://www.ettoday.net/news/20261016/3255915.htm
  - On October 17, 2026, the Kuomintang (KMT) will hold its first '10,000-person rally' in Yuanlin City, Changhua County, to unify grassroots morale, according to the article.
  - The event, scheduled for 15:30 at Changhua County Yuanlin Park, is expected to attract over 10,000 attendees and will feature key KMT figures including Party Chairperson Zheng Liwen, Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu, Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiu-yen, Nantou County Governor Xu Shu-hua, Yunlin County candidate Zhang Jiajun, and Changhua County candidate Wei Pingzheng.
  - However, current Changhua County Governor Wang Huimei will be absent due to a claimed official schedule, according to KMT Central Committee Chairman Xiao Jingtian.
  - This marks the second time Wang has missed a major rally organized by the party; she previously skipped the event due to internal nomination disputes, though she did campaign for local candidates.
  - The rally is part of a larger strategy announced by Zheng Liwen on October 14, 2026, to hold four major rallies across Taiwan, with the Changhua event serving as the opening.
  - Subsequent rallies are planned for the Taoyuan-Pingtung-Miaoli, Chiayi-Nantou-Gaoxiong-Pingtung, and Taipei-New Taipei-Keelung-Yilan regions, each expected to draw up to 20,000 supporters.
  - Wei Pingzheng's campaign slogan, 'Save the Great Taiwan Action,' emphasizes his platform for Changhua's upgrade to a 'Seventh City' status.
  - The article notes that Wang's repeated absences have caused anxiety among grassroots party members.

[2026-10-14] KMT Hsinchu County Launches 13-Township Organizational Drive Ahead of Election
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aloc/202610140177.aspx
  - On October 14, 2026, Hsinchu County Magistrate Yang Wen-ko, who also serves as the chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT) Hsinchu County Party Department, announced the launch of an organizational campaign across the county's 13 townships and cities to strengthen the party's election efforts.
  - During a director's meeting held the previous day, Yang, along with KMT-nominated candidates for Hsinchu County Magistrate (Xu Ying) and Zhubei City Mayor (Wu Xuzhi), reviewed grassroots organization work to prepare for the upcoming election.
  - Yang emphasized that while resources are limited, the party will support frontline cadres by integrating the efforts of county magistrates, township mayors, and county councilors to secure voter support.
  - He called for the party to unite behind all nominated candidates, setting aside differences from the primary process, and to translate meeting consensus into concrete actions to gain grassroots voter recognition.

[2026-09-28] 2026 Taiwan Local Elections: KMT and Allies Face Varied Prospects Across 22 Counties and Cities
ETtoday新聞雲 — https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260928/3244676.htm
  - As of September 28, 2026, the 2026 Taiwan 'Nine-in-One' local elections are entering the final stages, with the Kuomintang (KMT) and its allies facing varied prospects across 22 counties and cities.
  - According to ETtoday, the KMT is categorized into five zones: 'Safe Win' (80%+ win probability), 'Advantage', 'Hot Battle' (40-60%), 'Tight', and 'Difficult' (under 20%).
  - In the 'Safe Win' zone, KMT incumbents and allies include Taoyuan Mayor Chang Shan-cheng, Miaoli County Magistrate Chung Tung-chin, Nantou County Magistrate Hsu Shu-hua, Lienchiang County Magistrate Wang Chung-ming, and former New People's Party (NPP) candidate Gao Hung-an in Hsinchu City.
  - In the 'Advantage' zone, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an faces a challenge from DPP candidate Shen Po-yang, whose 'ocean current' campaign has reportedly increased KMT voter anxiety, potentially boosting Chiang's re-election chances.
  - In the 'Hot Battle' zone, New Taipei Mayor Li Sichuan faces a tough race against DPP's Su Chiao-hui due to perceived lack of personal charm and internal party conflicts, while Kaohsiung Mayor Ko Chih-en is seen as having a chance to flip the city against DPP's Lai Hui-lung, with polls showing a '55-45' split.
  - In the 'Tight' zone, Keelung Mayor Hsieh Kuo-chiang, Penghu County Magistrate Wu Shu-chin, and Hsinchu County Magistrate Xu Hsin-ying face close contests.
  - In the 'Difficult' zone, candidates in Changhua, Yilan, Chiayi, Tainan, and Pingtung face significant hurdles due to weak organization, internal divisions, or unfavorable political landscapes.

[2026-09-03] KMT Faces Defensive Struggle in Taiwan's Upcoming Local Elections
星島頭條網 — https://www.stheadline.com/realtime-china/3611108/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E8%A7%80%E5%AF%9F%E5%9C%8B%E6%B0%91%E9%BB%A8%E9%81%B8%E6%83%85%E9%99%B7%E5%AE%88%E5%8B%A2-%E6%96%B0%E5%8C%97%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E9%81%AD%E8%B6%85%E8%BB%8A
  - On November 28, Taiwan will hold its 'nine-in-one' local elections, where 22 mayors and county magistrates will be elected, and candidate registration begins this week.
  - Four years ago, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) won 14 seats while the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won 5, but the KMT now faces a difficult defensive campaign.
  - A major challenge for the KMT is that 9 of its 14 current seats are held by incumbents who have served two terms and cannot run again, including New Taipei, Taichung, Hsinchu County, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi City, Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung, which means the party loses the advantage of incumbency.
  - In New Taipei City, the largest voting bloc, KMT Mayor Hou Yu-ih must step down after two terms.
  - The KMT has nominated Li Sichuan, a 68-year-old with extensive administrative experience, to face DPP's Su Chiao-hui, a 50-year-old veteran politician and daughter of former DPP chairman Su Zhenchang.
  - Recent polls from the Taipei Citizens' Mainland Affairs Research Association show Su Chiao-hui leading with 35.2% compared to Li Sichuan's 34.7%.
  - The shift in the race is attributed to former Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen, who has agreed to serve as the chairman of Su's campaign headquarters.
  - KMT Vice Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen warned that Tsai still holds significant influence among swing voters, potentially offsetting dissatisfaction with DPP current leader Lai Ching-te.
  - With over 3.4 million registered voters, New Taipei represents approximately 17% to 25% of the total electorate.
  - Aside from New Taipei, Yilan, Changhua, and Chiayi City are also considered high-risk areas for the KMT.

[2026-07-25] KMT Unites for Year-End Elections: Wang Zhong-ming Receives Victory Oar in Matsu Bid
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7325/9650982
  - On July 25, 2026, the Kuomintang (KMT) held its 22nd National Representative Conference at the Taipei Municipal Chenggong High School Gymnasium with the theme 'Care for Livelihood, Love the People, Strive for Peace, Taiwan Wins.' KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen presented symbolic victory oars to 18 mayoral candidates and 1 county magistrate candidate to rally party unity ahead of the year-end local elections.
  - Wang Zhong-ming, the KMT nominee for Lienchiang County (Matsu), received an oar from Chairperson Cheng Li-wen and stated, 'Matsu will definitely win.' Wang emphasized that 'only through unity and cooperation can we gather the greatest strength to win the recognition and support of our fellow villagers.' He was accompanied by Lienchiang County Council Speaker Zhang Yong-jiang, Deputy County Magistrate Chen Guan-ren, and local party representatives.
  - The event featured a 'Sailing Together to Victory' motif, with candidates raising oars bearing the KMT logo and chanting 'Dong Suan' (meaning 'win') in unison.
  - Wang described his nomination as both an honor and a heavy responsibility, vowing to serve the Matsu community with humility and dedication.

[2026-07-23] KMT Chair Cheng Li-wen identifies 4 counties with dangerous election prospects ahead of 2026 polls
風傳媒 — https://www.storm.mg/article/11151179
  - On July 22, 2026, KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen officially nominated six incumbent mayors and county magistrates, including Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, for re-election in the upcoming 2026 local elections.
  - During an interview on the 'Qian Qiu Wan Shi' radio program on July 23, 2026, Cheng Li-wen identified four KMT-held counties as having precarious election prospects: Changhua County, where nomination controversies have occurred; Hsinchu County, where the political landscape shifted after DPP candidate Cheng Chao-fang was nominated for mayor; and Yilan County, a traditional DPP stronghold.
  - She also acknowledged that DPP-governed areas like Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung remain difficult, though she expressed hope to flip these seats, noting the narrow margins in the previous election.
  - The KMT is pursuing 'Blue-White cooperation,' supporting DPP candidate Gao Hung-an in Hsinchu City and KMT's own candidates in Chiayi City and Chiayi County.
  - The article also notes a July 25 rally against toxic oil and the KMT's call for unity to win.

[2026-07-22] KMT Nominates 6 Incumbents for 2026 Re-election; Chair Cheng Li-wen Calls Them 'Golden Signboards'
NOWnews 今日新聞 — https://www.nownews.com/news/6859130
  - On July 22, 2026, the Kuomintang (KMT) officially nominated six incumbent mayors and county magistrates for re-election during its Central Standing Committee meeting.
  - KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen personally presented campaign ribbons to Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, Taoyuan Mayor Chang Shan-chen, Miaoli County Magistrate Chung Tung-chin, Nantou County Magistrate Hsu Shu-hua, and Lienchiang County Magistrate Wang Chung-ming.
  - Cheng stated that these officials are the 'golden signboard' of the party, whose performance demonstrates 'true gold does not fear fire' and lays the foundation for a 2026 election victory.
  - She emphasized the need for unity to secure a comprehensive victory in the 2026 local elections.
  - Additionally, the KMT announced its support for the 'Blue-White cooperation': full backing for Zhang Qi-kai in Chiayi City, full support for incumbent Gao Hung-an in Hsinchu City, and support for independent candidate Wu Pin-jui in Chiayi County.
  - The party declared that all nominations, concessions, and support lists for the 22 counties and cities are now complete, with the goal of a unified front to win the 2026 'Nine-in-One' local elections.

[2026-07-22] KMT Chair Zheng Liwen Nominates Six Incumbents for 2026 Elections in 'Home Run' Push
凤凰网（凤凰新媒体） — https://news.ifeng.com/c/8uy9CGMORr8
  - On July 22, 2026, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Zheng Liwen officially nominated six incumbent mayors and county magistrates at the KMT Central Standing Committee meeting, draping them in campaign sashes to complete the party's slate for the upcoming 2026 'Nine-in-One' local elections.
  - The newly nominated officials are Taipei Mayor Jiang Wan-an, Keelung Mayor Xie Guoliang, Taoyuan Mayor Zhang Shanzheng, Miaoli County Magistrate Zhong Dongjin, Nantou County Magistrate Xu Shuhua, and Lienchiang (Matsu) County Magistrate Wang Zhongming.
  - Zheng Liwen highlighted the strategic importance of 'blue-white cooperation' and 'opposition unity,' noting that the KMT will support People First Party legislator Zhang Qikai in Chiayi City and incumbent Mayor Gao Hong-an in Hsinchu City, while also backing independent candidate Wu Pin-rui in Chiayi County.
  - Zheng praised Taoyuan Mayor Zhang Shanzheng for his technological expertise and the establishment of the 'Bureau of Maternal and Child Development,' and lauded Taipei Mayor Jiang Wan-an for resolving the 'Big Dome' controversy and attracting Nvidia's investment to position Taipei as a global AI hub.
  - The other officials were recognized for specific achievements: Wang Zhongming for the New Taiwan-Matsu ferry service, Xu Shuhua for eliminating Nantou's debt and managing waste, Zhong Dongjin for achieving over 70% satisfaction and securing a 'Big Silicon Valley' investment, and Xie Guoliang for advancing the Keelung MRT and indoor park projects despite facing impeachment attempts.
  - The event marks the final piece of the KMT's electoral puzzle, with Zheng Liwen vowing to secure a 'home run' victory in the 2026 elections.

[… older articles omitted]

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: The election hasn't happened yet. Wikipedia lists the 2026 Taiwanese local elections for November 28, 2026, with 22 county magistrate and city mayor seats up. The KMT won 14 of them in 2022 and currently holds 14. Focus Taiwan (July 25, 2026) reported that the KMT has nominated candidates in 19 races and left Hsinchu City and Chiayi City to the TPP.
  Last updated: unknown (Focus Taiwan 2026-07-25; candidate list 2026-09-07) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The vote is on November 28, 2026, and no results exist yet. Only official KMT nominees count. Some candidates the KMT is backing may not count: in Chiayi City the joint KMT-TPP candidate is a TPP member (Chang Chi-kai), and in Chiayi County the KMT is backing an independent rather than its own nominee. Templeman rates Chiayi City as leaning DPP. NBR says the open-seat New Taipei race is close, with the DPP's Su modestly ahead of the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan. The nomination count is unclear: Focus Taiwan says 19 races out of 21, but the 22-unit total and the Chiayi County independent suggest the real number of KMT nominees may be lower.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3347357/taiwans-main-opposition-parties-join-forces-local-elections-foundation-2028-race (HTTP 403)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2026 Taiwanese local elections:
  Local elections will be held in Taiwan on 28 November 2026 to elect county magistrates and city mayors, county and city councilors, township mayors, township councilors and chiefs of villages and boroughs in six special municipalities and 16 counties and cities. Elected officials will serve a four-year term.

  2022 Taiwanese local elections:
  Local elections were held in Taiwan on 26 November and 18 December 2022 to elect county magistrates, county (city) councilors, township mayors, township councilors and chiefs of village (borough) in 6 municipalities and 16 counties (cities). Elected officials would serve a four-year term. The election was held alongside the 2022 Taiwanese constitutional referendum.

  2018 Taiwanese local elections:
  Local elections were held on 24 November 2018 in Taiwan, to elect county magistrates, county (city) councilors, township mayors, township councilors and chiefs of village (borough) in 6 municipalities and 16 counties (cities). Elected officials would serve a four-year term. Polling stations were open from 08:00 to 16:00 on the election day.

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
以下按三個查詢整理。搜尋結果頁面多半只標示「幾天前」,所以未註明確切發布日的地方,我用推算的大概時間。

---

## 查詢 1:2026 縣市長選舉 國民黨 提名 民調 22縣市

**選舉基本資訊**
- 
2026 九合一選舉於 11 月 28 日投票,22 縣市長共有 81 人登記參選。
(公視新聞網,約 9 月初)
- 
全台 22 縣市中有 13 縣市首長面臨任期屆滿交棒。
(TVBS,約 9 月初)
- 經理人月刊指出,
臺北市長辯論會訂於 10/31 登場。
(約 10 月中)

**國民黨提名過程**
- 
鄭麗文於 2025 年 10 月就任黨主席,11 月 27 日中常會通過提名特別辦法。12 月 25 日啟動第一波提名,徵召謝龍介(台南)、柯志恩(高雄),並提名蘇清泉(屏東)、吳秀華(台東)。

- 
第二波徵召陳玉珍(金門)、張嘉郡(雲林)、游淑貞(花蓮)。第三波提名李四川(新北)、吳宗憲(宜蘭)、翁壽良(嘉義市)。
(今周刊)
- 
截至 1 月 22 日,蔣萬安(台北)、張善政(桃園)尋求連任。
(壹蘋新聞網)

**正式登記名單(國民黨)**
- 六都:蔣萬安(台北)、李四川(新北)、張善政(桃園)、江啟臣(台中)、謝龍介(台南)、柯志恩(高雄)。
- 其他縣市:
  - 
基隆謝國樑、新竹縣徐欣瑩、苗栗鍾東錦、彰化魏平政、南投許淑華、雲林張嘉郡、澎湖陳振中。

  - 
屏東蘇清泉、宜蘭吳宗憲。

  - 
另有花蓮游淑貞、台東吳秀華(台東另見 3-1)。

- 新竹市與嘉義縣、嘉義市都沒有國民黨登記人選:
新竹市由高虹安(無黨籍)參選;嘉義市是民眾黨張啓楷。


**民調與預測**
- 街頭民調主持人蔡宇傑在 7 月 30 日的直播中,
預估國民黨當選 13 席、民進黨 8 席、無黨籍 1 席。
這是網路名嘴預測,不是正式民調。
- 
他提到宜蘭內參民調中吳宗憲落後林國漳 1.3 個百分點,可能受林姿妙判決影響。

- 
他預測國民黨在花蓮、台東仍領先。


**來源**
- https://news.pts.org.tw/article/801606
- https://www.managertoday.com.tw/articles/view/72722
- https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4017384
- https://news.nextapple.com/politics/20260312/C8F44D33314A498460CDA5AAA7903939
- https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/183027/post/202509150036/
- https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20260730004987-260407

---

## 查詢 2:KMT–TPP 藍白合 提名與民調

**整體架構**
- 
兩黨在 2026 年 3 月達成新的合作協議,為競選期間及之後訂下準則。
(東亞論壇,8 月 19 日)
- 
在台北、桃園、新竹等在野陣營已執政的地方,雙方同意互不扯後腿。

- 
議員選舉沒有正式合作,各黨獨立競爭。


**個案**

| 縣市 | 結果 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|
| 嘉義市 | 
兩黨公布前民眾黨立委張啟楷為共同候選人。
這是兩黨主席簽署協議後的首例藍白合作。
民調初選於 4 月 2 日至 4 日舉行。
 | 約 4 月 7 日 |
| 新北市 | 
李四川在兩黨共同民調中擊敗黃國昌。
兩項民調中,李四川也都領先民進黨蘇巧慧。
 | 4 月 28 日 |
| 宜蘭縣 | 
電話民調訪問 1,093 人。
吳宗憲對林國漳是 27.6% 比 28.9%。
若換成陳琬惠,則是 21.1% 比 27.5%。
吳宗憲表現較佳,勝出。 | 5 月 4 日 |
| 嘉義縣 | 
國民黨沒有提名人,支持無黨籍的朴子市長吳品叡。
民眾黨也支持吳品叡。
 | — |

注意:Templeman 的部落格寫國民黨在 5 月 4 日提名張啟楷,與 Taipei Times 的 4 月初共同宣布略有出入。可能是正式提名程序與公布時間不同,我無法確認。

**新竹合作破裂**
- 
黃國昌說,兩黨未簽正式協議,但雙方理解是民眾黨不提新竹縣長人選、支持徐欣瑩,民眾黨則自提竹北市長人選。
(Taipei Times,8 月 28 日)
- 
黃國昌說鄭麗文當面告訴他,國民黨「處理不了」竹北市長選舉。

- 
9 月 3 日,國民黨吳旭智與民眾黨邱臣遠都登記競選竹北市長。

- 
民眾黨 9 月宣布,新竹縣的合作關係結束。


**背景**
- 
2022 年在野陣營拿下 15 席縣市長,民進黨 5 席。

- 
2024 年大選協商破裂的陰影,仍讓外界懷疑聯盟能否持久。


**來源**
- https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202604280024
- https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202605040010
- https://www.taiwanplus.com/news/taiwan-news/politics/260407019/kmt-and-tpp-back-joint-nominee-for-chiayi-mayor
- https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/04/13/2003855480
- https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/08/28/2003863300
- https://taiwantang.substack.com/p/ten-open-seats-one-broken-promise
- https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/08/19/taiwans-2026-local-elections-test-the-opposition-alliance/
- https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-4-south-east-and-offshore-islands
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections

---

## 查詢 3:藍綠民調——宜蘭、彰化、嘉義、高雄、台南

**對戰組合(登記後)**
- 台南:
謝龍介(國)對陳亭妃(民),另有葉人文、蕭燐洪。

- 高雄:柯志恩對賴瑞隆,另有三名其他參選人。
- 彰化:
魏平政(國)、陳素月(民),無黨籍邱建富、陳重嘉。

- 宜蘭:吳宗憲對林國漳,
另有三位無黨籍。

- 嘉義縣:蔡易餘(民)對吳品叡(無)。
- 嘉義市:王美惠(民)對張啓楷(眾)。

**遠見民調(約

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
How many county magistrates and city mayors will the KMT win in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
SCMP[Taiwan’s opposition parties join forces for local elections with eye on 2028 race](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3347357/taiwans-main-opposition-parties-join-forces-local-elections-foundation-2028-race)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "faa70957fb1b9ce5", "sheet_id": "24"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the number of county magistrates and city mayors that the Kuomintang win in the 2026 Taiwanese local elections.

## Fine Print
This question will only consider candidates who are officially nominated by the KMT. Only leaders of the ROC's 22 local administration units (counties and cities) count.

## Range
The question's displayed range is [-0.5, 22.5] (units: magistrates/mayors).
The LOWER bound is CLOSED: the outcome cannot be below -0.5.
The UPPER bound is CLOSED: the outcome cannot be above 22.5.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: The election hasn't happened yet. Wikipedia lists the 2026 Taiwanese local elections for November 28, 2026, with 22 county magistrate and city mayor seats up. The KMT won 14 of them in 2022 and currently holds 14. Focus Taiwan (July 25, 2026) reported that the KMT has nominated candidates in 19 races and left Hsinchu City and Chiayi City to the TPP.
  Last updated: unknown (Focus Taiwan 2026-07-25; candidate list 2026-09-07) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The vote is on November 28, 2026, and no results exist yet. Only official KMT nominees count. Some candidates the KMT is backing may not count: in Chiayi City the joint KMT-TPP candidate is a TPP member (Chang Chi-kai), and in Chiayi County the KMT is backing an independent rather than its own nominee. Templeman rates Chiayi City as leaning DPP. NBR says the open-seat New Taipei race is close, with the DPP's Su modestly ahead of the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan. The nomination count is unclear: Focus Taiwan says 19 races out of 21, but the 22-unit total and the Chiayi County independent suggest the real number of KMT nominees may be lower.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3347357/taiwans-main-opposition-parties-join-forces-local-elections-foundation-2028-race (HTTP 403)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2026 Taiwanese local elections:
  Local elections will be held in Taiwan on 28 November 2026 to elect county magistrates and city mayors, county and city councilors, township mayors, township councilors and chiefs of villages and boroughs in six special municipalities and 16 counties and cities. Elected officials will serve a four-year term.

  2022 Taiwanese local elections:
  Local elections were held in Taiwan on 26 November and 18 December 2022 to elect county magistrates, county (city) councilors, township mayors, township councilors and chiefs of village (borough) in 6 municipalities and 16 counties (cities). Elected officials would serve a four-year term. The election was held alongside the 2022 Taiwanese constitutional referendum.

  2018 Taiwanese local elections:
  Local elections were held on 24 November 2018 in Taiwan, to elect county magistrates, county (city) councilors, township mayors, township councilors and chiefs of village (borough) in 6 municipalities and 16 counties (cities). Elected officials would serve a four-year term. Polling stations were open from 08:00 to 16:00 on the election day.

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
以下按三個查詢整理。搜尋結果頁面多半只標示「幾天前」,所以未註明確切發布日的地方,我用推算的大概時間。

---

## 查詢 1:2026 縣市長選舉 國民黨 提名 民調 22縣市

**選舉基本資訊**
- 
2026 九合一選舉於 11 月 28 日投票,22 縣市長共有 81 人登記參選。
(公視新聞網,約 9 月初)
- 
全台 22 縣市中有 13 縣市首長面臨任期屆滿交棒。
(TVBS,約 9 月初)
- 經理人月刊指出,
臺北市長辯論會訂於 10/31 登場。
(約 10 月中)

**國民黨提名過程**
- 
鄭麗文於 2025 年 10 月就任黨主席,11 月 27 日中常會通過提名特別辦法。12 月 25 日啟動第一波提名,徵召謝龍介(台南)、柯志恩(高雄),並提名蘇清泉(屏東)、吳秀華(台東)。

- 
第二波徵召陳玉珍(金門)、張嘉郡(雲林)、游淑貞(花蓮)。第三波提名李四川(新北)、吳宗憲(宜蘭)、翁壽良(嘉義市)。
(今周刊)
- 
截至 1 月 22 日,蔣萬安(台北)、張善政(桃園)尋求連任。
(壹蘋新聞網)

**正式登記名單(國民黨)**
- 六都:蔣萬安(台北)、李四川(新北)、張善政(桃園)、江啟臣(台中)、謝龍介(台南)、柯志恩(高雄)。
- 其他縣市:
  - 
基隆謝國樑、新竹縣徐欣瑩、苗栗鍾東錦、彰化魏平政、南投許淑華、雲林張嘉郡、澎湖陳振中。

  - 
屏東蘇清泉、宜蘭吳宗憲。

  - 
另有花蓮游淑貞、台東吳秀華(台東另見 3-1)。

- 新竹市與嘉義縣、嘉義市都沒有國民黨登記人選:
新竹市由高虹安(無黨籍)參選;嘉義市是民眾黨張啓楷。


**民調與預測**
- 街頭民調主持人蔡宇傑在 7 月 30 日的直播中,
預估國民黨當選 13 席、民進黨 8 席、無黨籍 1 席。
這是網路名嘴預測,不是正式民調。
- 
他提到宜蘭內參民調中吳宗憲落後林國漳 1.3 個百分點,可能受林姿妙判決影響。

- 
他預測國民黨在花蓮、台東仍領先。


**來源**
- https://news.pts.org.tw/article/801606
- https://www.managertoday.com.tw/articles/view/72722
- https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4017384
- https://news.nextapple.com/politics/20260312/C8F44D33314A498460CDA5AAA7903939
- https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/183027/post/202509150036/
- https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20260730004987-260407

---

## 查詢 2:KMT–TPP 藍白合 提名與民調

**整體架構**
- 
兩黨在 2026 年 3 月達成新的合作協議,為競選期間及之後訂下準則。
(東亞論壇,8 月 19 日)
- 
在台北、桃園、新竹等在野陣營已執政的地方,雙方同意互不扯後腿。

- 
議員選舉沒有正式合作,各黨獨立競爭。


**個案**

| 縣市 | 結果 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|
| 嘉義市 | 
兩黨公布前民眾黨立委張啟楷為共同候選人。
這是兩黨主席簽署協議後的首例藍白合作。
民調初選於 4 月 2 日至 4 日舉行。
 | 約 4 月 7 日 |
| 新北市 | 
李四川在兩黨共同民調中擊敗黃國昌。
兩項民調中,李四川也都領先民進黨蘇巧慧。
 | 4 月 28 日 |
| 宜蘭縣 | 
電話民調訪問 1,093 人。
吳宗憲對林國漳是 27.6% 比 28.9%。
若換成陳琬惠,則是 21.1% 比 27.5%。
吳宗憲表現較佳,勝出。 | 5 月 4 日 |
| 嘉義縣 | 
國民黨沒有提名人,支持無黨籍的朴子市長吳品叡。
民眾黨也支持吳品叡。
 | — |

注意:Templeman 的部落格寫國民黨在 5 月 4 日提名張啟楷,與 Taipei Times 的 4 月初共同宣布略有出入。可能是正式提名程序與公布時間不同,我無法確認。

**新竹合作破裂**
- 
黃國昌說,兩黨未簽正式協議,但雙方理解是民眾黨不提新竹縣長人選、支持徐欣瑩,民眾黨則自提竹北市長人選。
(Taipei Times,8 月 28 日)
- 
黃國昌說鄭麗文當面告訴他,國民黨「處理不了」竹北市長選舉。

- 
9 月 3 日,國民黨吳旭智與民眾黨邱臣遠都登記競選竹北市長。

- 
民眾黨 9 月宣布,新竹縣的合作關係結束。


**背景**
- 
2022 年在野陣營拿下 15 席縣市長,民進黨 5 席。

- 
2024 年大選協商破裂的陰影,仍讓外界懷疑聯盟能否持久。


**來源**
- https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202604280024
- https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202605040010
- https://www.taiwanplus.com/news/taiwan-news/politics/260407019/kmt-and-tpp-back-joint-nominee-for-chiayi-mayor
- https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/04/13/2003855480
- https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/08/28/2003863300
- https://taiwantang.substack.com/p/ten-open-seats-one-broken-promise
- https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/08/19/taiwans-2026-local-elections-test-the-opposition-alliance/
- https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-4-south-east-and-offshore-islands
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections

---

## 查詢 3:藍綠民調——宜蘭、彰化、嘉義、高雄、台南

**對戰組合(登記後)**
- 台南:
謝龍介(國)對陳亭妃(民),另有葉人文、蕭燐洪。

- 高雄:柯志恩對賴瑞隆,另有三名其他參選人。
- 彰化:
魏平政(國)、陳素月(民),無黨籍邱建富、陳重嘉。

- 宜蘭:吳宗憲對林國漳,
另有三位無黨籍。

- 嘉義縣:蔡易餘(民)對吳品叡(無)。
- 嘉義市:王美惠(民)對張啓楷(眾)。

**遠見民調(約

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-18; forecasting closes 2026-10-18; resolves 2026-11-29. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
15 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-17] KMT Chair Cheng Li-wen Launches Major Changhua Campaign Rally for Wei Ping-cheng
中华网军事频道 — https://military.china.com/news/13004177/20261017/49799914.html
  - On October 17, 2026, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li-wen announced the launch of a major campaign rally in Changhua County, where she will serve as the head of the campaign headquarters for KMT candidate Wei Ping-cheng.
  - During an event attended by the newly formed '26 Township, Three Chiefs, and Elite County Policy Advisory Group', Cheng invited several former ministers from the Ma Ying-jeou administration to join Wei's advisory team, including former Premier Chen Chung and water expert Li Hung-yuan, with New Taipei City Deputy Mayor Liu Ho-jan serving as the group's convener.
  - Cheng stated that polling results in Changhua are favorable and urged all non-Green Party supporters to attend the first joint rally for central Taiwan counties scheduled for October 17.
  - The advisory team, which also includes former Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Chairman Chang Hsien-yao, has already prepared a policy white paper for Wei, who has not yet taken office.
  - Notably, incumbent Changhua County Magistrate Wang Hui-mei did not attend the event.
  - Cheng emphasized that winning the 2026 county and city elections is a crucial step toward victory in the 2028 presidential election.

[2026-10-17] Changhua County Magistrate Race Heats Up as DPP and KMT Hold Major Rallies
Liberty Times Net — https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
  - On October 17, 2026, the election for the position of Changhua County Magistrate in Taiwan intensified during the pre-election weekend, with both the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) holding major rallies.
  - The DPP candidate, Chen Su-yue, held a founding ceremony for four major support groups at her campaign headquarters, with DPP Secretary-General Xu Guoyong present to support her.
  - Meanwhile, the KMT held a joint rally in Yuanlin City focused on a referendum regarding AI and nuclear power.
  - KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen, Legislative Yuan President Han Kuo-yu, and Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiu-yan delivered speeches alongside KMT Changhua candidate Wei Ping-cheng, Taichung candidate Chiang Chi-chen, Nantou candidate Hsu Shu-hua, and Yunlin candidate Chang Chia-chun.
  - The KMT rally aimed to mobilize approximately 11,000 attendees.
  - The article describes the events as a heated contest between the two major political parties.

[2026-10-17] Nantou City Mayoral Race: Three-Way Contest Reshapes KMT-DPP Dynamic
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7325/9821388
  - In the upcoming October 2026 Nantou City mayoral election in Taiwan, three candidates are competing to reshape the traditional Kuomintang (KMT) vs.
  - Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) landscape.
  - Incumbent KMT candidate Zhang Jia-Zhe is seeking re-election, highlighting four years of achievements including smart roadside parking, timed garbage collection, 'Happy Bus' services, and birth subsidies, while proposing a blueprint for industry, youth, and tourism; he also pledges cooperation with Nantou County Magistrate Xu Shu-Hua.
  - The DPP has nominated County Councilor Shen Su-Zheng, who identifies population decline and youth outmigration as key issues, proposing a 'Nantou Trilogy' to improve labor conditions, enhance regional transportation, and revitalize the Maoluo Creek area to create local jobs.
  - Independent candidate Lin Fu-Shen, a former sanitation chief, campaigns on a non-partisan platform addressing roads, parking, traffic, and local industry.
  - In the 2022 election, Zhang Jia-Zhe won with approximately 54% of the vote against the DPP's 45%, but the addition of Lin Fu-Shen is expected to alter vote distribution.
  - Key battlegrounds include the future of the Nangang Industrial Park and strategies to retain youth.

[2026-10-17] KMT and TPP Leaders Unite for 2026 Pingtung County Election
ETtoday新聞雲 — https://www.ettoday.net/news/20261017/3256506.htm
  - On October 17, 2026, in Pingtung, Taiwan, KMT legislator Su Ching-chuan held the founding ceremony for his campaign headquarters for the 2026 Pingtung County magistrate election.
  - Lin Yu-hsien, Chairman of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) Pingtung County branch and a candidate for county councilor, led a TPP delegation to the event, advocating for a comprehensive 'Blue-White Alliance' (KMT-TPP cooperation).
  - Lin called for unified cooperation across all levels of the election, from village chiefs to the county magistrate race, with the goal of achieving a 'grand slam' victory.
  - TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang appeared in a pre-recorded video message, congratulating the launch and urging supporters to consolidate their votes for Pingtung.
  - The event concluded with Lin and the TPP team chanting the slogan 'Blue-White Alliance, Grand Slam' to the audience.

[2026-10-16] Taiwan CEC Approves All 81 Executive Candidates for 2026 Local Elections; 10 Council Candidates Disqualified
風傳媒 — https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
  - On October 16, 2026, the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Taiwan concluded its review of candidate qualifications for the upcoming 2026 local elections, scheduled to take place in 43 days.
  - The CEC approved all 81 candidates for executive positions, including 23 mayors for the six special municipalities and 58 county and city mayors.
  - The Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) each nominated 19 candidates for these positions.
  - The article notes that the competition is most intense in Kinmen County, where 7 candidates registered, followed by Penghu County with 6.
  - In the six special municipalities, Taipei City had the highest number of candidates with 6, while Taoyuan City had the least with 2, specifically KMT's Zhang Shan-zheng and DPP's Huang Shih-chieh.
  - The review also resulted in the disqualification of 10 candidates for the legislative seats (municipal and county/city councilors).
  - Specifically, one candidate for Taipei City Councilor, You Zhi-bin, was disqualified because he registered his household in Taiwan less than 10 years ago (on April 16, 2025) after holding a Mainland China household registration.
  - Additionally, four candidates were barred due to criminal convictions: Lin Cheng-feng (New Taipei City) for money laundering, Zheng Bo-qi (Taichung City) for fraud, Cao Wei-kuo (Tainan City) for gun control violations, and Xiao Xiang-han (Taoyuan City) for pending execution of a sentence related to obstruction of public service.
  - In the county/city councilor race, 887 out of 892 registrants were approved, with 5 disqualified.
  - The CEC will publish the property declarations of the approved candidates online for one year starting from the list's approval, and candidate ballot order lotteries are scheduled for October 23, 2026.

[2026-10-16] KMT's 10,000-Person Rally in Changhua: Wang Huimei Absent Again Amid Nomination Disputes
ETtoday新聞雲 — https://www.ettoday.net/news/20261016/3255915.htm
  - On October 17, 2026, the Kuomintang (KMT) will hold its first '10,000-person rally' in Yuanlin City, Changhua County, to unify grassroots morale, according to the article.
  - The event, scheduled for 15:30 at Changhua County Yuanlin Park, is expected to attract over 10,000 attendees and will feature key KMT figures including Party Chairperson Zheng Liwen, Legislative Yuan Speaker Han Kuo-yu, Taichung Mayor Lu Hsiu-yen, Nantou County Governor Xu Shu-hua, Yunlin County candidate Zhang Jiajun, and Changhua County candidate Wei Pingzheng.
  - However, current Changhua County Governor Wang Huimei will be absent due to a claimed official schedule, according to KMT Central Committee Chairman Xiao Jingtian.
  - This marks the second time Wang has missed a major rally organized by the party; she previously skipped the event due to internal nomination disputes, though she did campaign for local candidates.
  - The rally is part of a larger strategy announced by Zheng Liwen on October 14, 2026, to hold four major rallies across Taiwan, with the Changhua event serving as the opening.
  - Subsequent rallies are planned for the Taoyuan-Pingtung-Miaoli, Chiayi-Nantou-Gaoxiong-Pingtung, and Taipei-New Taipei-Keelung-Yilan regions, each expected to draw up to 20,000 supporters.
  - Wei Pingzheng's campaign slogan, 'Save the Great Taiwan Action,' emphasizes his platform for Changhua's upgrade to a 'Seventh City' status.
  - The article notes that Wang's repeated absences have caused anxiety among grassroots party members.

[2026-10-14] KMT Hsinchu County Launches 13-Township Organizational Drive Ahead of Election
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aloc/202610140177.aspx
  - On October 14, 2026, Hsinchu County Magistrate Yang Wen-ko, who also serves as the chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT) Hsinchu County Party Department, announced the launch of an organizational campaign across the county's 13 townships and cities to strengthen the party's election efforts.
  - During a director's meeting held the previous day, Yang, along with KMT-nominated candidates for Hsinchu County Magistrate (Xu Ying) and Zhubei City Mayor (Wu Xuzhi), reviewed grassroots organization work to prepare for the upcoming election.
  - Yang emphasized that while resources are limited, the party will support frontline cadres by integrating the efforts of county magistrates, township mayors, and county councilors to secure voter support.
  - He called for the party to unite behind all nominated candidates, setting aside differences from the primary process, and to translate meeting consensus into concrete actions to gain grassroots voter recognition.

[2026-09-28] 2026 Taiwan Local Elections: KMT and Allies Face Varied Prospects Across 22 Counties and Cities
ETtoday新聞雲 — https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260928/3244676.htm
  - As of September 28, 2026, the 2026 Taiwan 'Nine-in-One' local elections are entering the final stages, with the Kuomintang (KMT) and its allies facing varied prospects across 22 counties and cities.
  - According to ETtoday, the KMT is categorized into five zones: 'Safe Win' (80%+ win probability), 'Advantage', 'Hot Battle' (40-60%), 'Tight', and 'Difficult' (under 20%).
  - In the 'Safe Win' zone, KMT incumbents and allies include Taoyuan Mayor Chang Shan-cheng, Miaoli County Magistrate Chung Tung-chin, Nantou County Magistrate Hsu Shu-hua, Lienchiang County Magistrate Wang Chung-ming, and former New People's Party (NPP) candidate Gao Hung-an in Hsinchu City.
  - In the 'Advantage' zone, Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an faces a challenge from DPP candidate Shen Po-yang, whose 'ocean current' campaign has reportedly increased KMT voter anxiety, potentially boosting Chiang's re-election chances.
  - In the 'Hot Battle' zone, New Taipei Mayor Li Sichuan faces a tough race against DPP's Su Chiao-hui due to perceived lack of personal charm and internal party conflicts, while Kaohsiung Mayor Ko Chih-en is seen as having a chance to flip the city against DPP's Lai Hui-lung, with polls showing a '55-45' split.
  - In the 'Tight' zone, Keelung Mayor Hsieh Kuo-chiang, Penghu County Magistrate Wu Shu-chin, and Hsinchu County Magistrate Xu Hsin-ying face close contests.
  - In the 'Difficult' zone, candidates in Changhua, Yilan, Chiayi, Tainan, and Pingtung face significant hurdles due to weak organization, internal divisions, or unfavorable political landscapes.

[2026-09-03] KMT Faces Defensive Struggle in Taiwan's Upcoming Local Elections
星島頭條網 — https://www.stheadline.com/realtime-china/3611108/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E8%A7%80%E5%AF%9F%E5%9C%8B%E6%B0%91%E9%BB%A8%E9%81%B8%E6%83%85%E9%99%B7%E5%AE%88%E5%8B%A2-%E6%96%B0%E5%8C%97%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E9%81%AD%E8%B6%85%E8%BB%8A
  - On November 28, Taiwan will hold its 'nine-in-one' local elections, where 22 mayors and county magistrates will be elected, and candidate registration begins this week.
  - Four years ago, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) won 14 seats while the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won 5, but the KMT now faces a difficult defensive campaign.
  - A major challenge for the KMT is that 9 of its 14 current seats are held by incumbents who have served two terms and cannot run again, including New Taipei, Taichung, Hsinchu County, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi City, Yilan, Hualien, and Taitung, which means the party loses the advantage of incumbency.
  - In New Taipei City, the largest voting bloc, KMT Mayor Hou Yu-ih must step down after two terms.
  - The KMT has nominated Li Sichuan, a 68-year-old with extensive administrative experience, to face DPP's Su Chiao-hui, a 50-year-old veteran politician and daughter of former DPP chairman Su Zhenchang.
  - Recent polls from the Taipei Citizens' Mainland Affairs Research Association show Su Chiao-hui leading with 35.2% compared to Li Sichuan's 34.7%.
  - The shift in the race is attributed to former Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen, who has agreed to serve as the chairman of Su's campaign headquarters.
  - KMT Vice Chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen warned that Tsai still holds significant influence among swing voters, potentially offsetting dissatisfaction with DPP current leader Lai Ching-te.
  - With over 3.4 million registered voters, New Taipei represents approximately 17% to 25% of the total electorate.
  - Aside from New Taipei, Yilan, Changhua, and Chiayi City are also considered high-risk areas for the KMT.

[2026-07-25] KMT Unites for Year-End Elections: Wang Zhong-ming Receives Victory Oar in Matsu Bid
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7325/9650982
  - On July 25, 2026, the Kuomintang (KMT) held its 22nd National Representative Conference at the Taipei Municipal Chenggong High School Gymnasium with the theme 'Care for Livelihood, Love the People, Strive for Peace, Taiwan Wins.' KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen presented symbolic victory oars to 18 mayoral candidates and 1 county magistrate candidate to rally party unity ahead of the year-end local elections.
  - Wang Zhong-ming, the KMT nominee for Lienchiang County (Matsu), received an oar from Chairperson Cheng Li-wen and stated, 'Matsu will definitely win.' Wang emphasized that 'only through unity and cooperation can we gather the greatest strength to win the recognition and support of our fellow villagers.' He was accompanied by Lienchiang County Council Speaker Zhang Yong-jiang, Deputy County Magistrate Chen Guan-ren, and local party representatives.
  - The event featured a 'Sailing Together to Victory' motif, with candidates raising oars bearing the KMT logo and chanting 'Dong Suan' (meaning 'win') in unison.
  - Wang described his nomination as both an honor and a heavy responsibility, vowing to serve the Matsu community with humility and dedication.

[2026-07-23] KMT Chair Cheng Li-wen identifies 4 counties with dangerous election prospects ahead of 2026 polls
風傳媒 — https://www.storm.mg/article/11151179
  - On July 22, 2026, KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen officially nominated six incumbent mayors and county magistrates, including Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, for re-election in the upcoming 2026 local elections.
  - During an interview on the 'Qian Qiu Wan Shi' radio program on July 23, 2026, Cheng Li-wen identified four KMT-held counties as having precarious election prospects: Changhua County, where nomination controversies have occurred; Hsinchu County, where the political landscape shifted after DPP candidate Cheng Chao-fang was nominated for mayor; and Yilan County, a traditional DPP stronghold.
  - She also acknowledged that DPP-governed areas like Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung remain difficult, though she expressed hope to flip these seats, noting the narrow margins in the previous election.
  - The KMT is pursuing 'Blue-White cooperation,' supporting DPP candidate Gao Hung-an in Hsinchu City and KMT's own candidates in Chiayi City and Chiayi County.
  - The article also notes a July 25 rally against toxic oil and the KMT's call for unity to win.

[2026-07-22] KMT Nominates 6 Incumbents for 2026 Re-election; Chair Cheng Li-wen Calls Them 'Golden Signboards'
NOWnews 今日新聞 — https://www.nownews.com/news/6859130
  - On July 22, 2026, the Kuomintang (KMT) officially nominated six incumbent mayors and county magistrates for re-election during its Central Standing Committee meeting.
  - KMT Chairperson Cheng Li-wen personally presented campaign ribbons to Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, Taoyuan Mayor Chang Shan-chen, Miaoli County Magistrate Chung Tung-chin, Nantou County Magistrate Hsu Shu-hua, and Lienchiang County Magistrate Wang Chung-ming.
  - Cheng stated that these officials are the 'golden signboard' of the party, whose performance demonstrates 'true gold does not fear fire' and lays the foundation for a 2026 election victory.
  - She emphasized the need for unity to secure a comprehensive victory in the 2026 local elections.
  - Additionally, the KMT announced its support for the 'Blue-White cooperation': full backing for Zhang Qi-kai in Chiayi City, full support for incumbent Gao Hung-an in Hsinchu City, and support for independent candidate Wu Pin-jui in Chiayi County.
  - The party declared that all nominations, concessions, and support lists for the 22 counties and cities are now complete, with the goal of a unified front to win the 2026 'Nine-in-One' local elections.

[2026-07-22] KMT Chair Zheng Liwen Nominates Six Incumbents for 2026 Elections in 'Home Run' Push
凤凰网（凤凰新媒体） — https://news.ifeng.com/c/8uy9CGMORr8
  - On July 22, 2026, Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Zheng Liwen officially nominated six incumbent mayors and county magistrates at the KMT Central Standing Committee meeting, draping them in campaign sashes to complete the party's slate for the upcoming 2026 'Nine-in-One' local elections.
  - The newly nominated officials are Taipei Mayor Jiang Wan-an, Keelung Mayor Xie Guoliang, Taoyuan Mayor Zhang Shanzheng, Miaoli County Magistrate Zhong Dongjin, Nantou County Magistrate Xu Shuhua, and Lienchiang (Matsu) County Magistrate Wang Zhongming.
  - Zheng Liwen highlighted the strategic importance of 'blue-white cooperation' and 'opposition unity,' noting that the KMT will support People First Party legislator Zhang Qikai in Chiayi City and incumbent Mayor Gao Hong-an in Hsinchu City, while also backing independent candidate Wu Pin-rui in Chiayi County.
  - Zheng praised Taoyuan Mayor Zhang Shanzheng for his technological expertise and the establishment of the 'Bureau of Maternal and Child Development,' and lauded Taipei Mayor Jiang Wan-an for resolving the 'Big Dome' controversy and attracting Nvidia's investment to position Taipei as a global AI hub.
  - The other officials were recognized for specific achievements: Wang Zhongming for the New Taiwan-Matsu ferry service, Xu Shuhua for eliminating Nantou's debt and managing waste, Zhong Dongjin for achieving over 70% satisfaction and securing a 'Big Silicon Valley' investment, and Xie Guoliang for advancing the Keelung MRT and indoor park projects despite facing impeachment attempts.
  - The event marks the final piece of the KMT's electoral puzzle, with Zheng Liwen vowing to secure a 'home run' victory in the 2026 elections.

[… older articles omitted]

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
**Resolution source.** The final count will come from the CEC results for the 28 Nov 2026 vote. I treat the "current value" as the KMT's holdings going in and the nominations on the ballot. No result exists yet.

- [2026-10-16] The CEC cleared all 81 executive candidates: 23 in the six special municipalities and 58 in the other 16 counties and cities. 
The KMT and DPP each have 19 candidates.
 The KMT has no nominee in three places: 
Chiayi County, Hsinchu City and Chiayi City
. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-10-16] The KMT therefore has a ceiling of 19 of 22 seats. Its 19 nominees are in:
  - Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung
  - Keelung, Hsinchu County, Miaoli, Changhua, Nantou and Yunlin
  - Pingtung, Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen and Lienchiang
  
  https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-10-18] Baseline, from Wikipedia's election infobox: in 2022 the KMT won 14 seats (50.1% of the vote) and the DPP 5. 
Current seats are listed as KMT 14, DPP 5, TPP 1.
 The 14 includes Miaoli's Chung Tung-chin, who won as an independent. 
He rejoined the KMT on 14 Sep 2025.
 The "one year ago" value is also 14 (the infobox lists 14 current seats). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2026-10-18] Hsinchu City has no KMT nominee because the KMT deferred to the TPP-founded incumbent. 
Kao Hung-an now runs as an independent.
 In Chiayi City the KMT and TPP back TPP's Chang Chi-kai. Both seats are outside the KMT count under the fine print, which counts only KMT-nominated candidates. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202609045002.aspx
- [2026-08-27, via Templeman preview] Kharis Templeman's ratings: 
Likely KMT (3): Taipei, Taoyuan, Miaoli. Leans KMT (5): Taichung, Keelung, Hsinchu County, Yunlin, Hualien, Taitung. Toss-up (2): New Taipei, Penghu. Leans DPP (4): Yilan, Changhua, Chiayi City, Pingtung. Likely DPP (3): Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi County.
 The "Leans KMT (5)" label lists six places. Kinmen and Lienchiang are not in his tiers as shown. 
The KMT is defending 10 open seats.
 https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-10-15] Polling, mostly partisan-sponsored.
  - New Taipei: a Dai Li-an poll (6–8 Oct) has the DPP's Su Chiao-hui at 43.1% against the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan at 30.0%. 
Projected vote share has her ahead by only 4.1 points.
 https://theinitium.com/20261015-whatsnew-taiwan-local-elections-new-taipei-city-mayor/
  - New Taipei, Ujiaotian poll: 
Lee 45.74%, Su 45.18%.
 https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E9%80%99%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E8%97%8D%E7%B6%A0%E7%B7%8A%E5%92%AC%E5%83%85%E5%89%A94-6-%E5%B7%AE%E8%B7%9D-%E7%B6%A0%E7%87%9F%E9%81%B8%E5%B0%87%E5%96%8A%E8%A9%B1%E4%BA%86-051457600.html
- [2026-10-16 to 10-17] Other KMT-commissioned polls:
  - Keelung: 
Hsieh Kuo-liang 42.9%, Tung Tzu-wei 38.3%.
 https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9815763
  - Taichung: 
Johnny Chiang 39.8%, Ho Hsin-chun 28.7%.
 https://udn.com/vote2026/story/124652/9820824
  - Kaohsiung (Aug, Chujuan Tianxia): Lai Jui-lung 47.78%, Ko Chih-en 46.14%. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9681827
- [2026-10-18] Blue-white cooperation is partial. TPP ended its Hsinchu County partnership with the KMT in September. 
The KMT and TPP chose a joint New Taipei candidate in April.
 TPP is backing KMT's Su Ching-chuan in Pingtung. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20261017/3256506.htm
- [2026-10-17] Intra-KMT friction in Changhua: incumbent KMT magistrate Wang Hui-mei skipped the KMT rally for nominee Wei Ping-cheng. Chairperson Cheng Li-wen says winning these races is key to 2028. https://military.china.com/news/13004177/20261017/49799914.html
- [2026-07 forecast] The YouTube commentator Tsai Yu-chieh projected KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. This is one pundit's view, not a model. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/2026%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E8%A1%97%E9%A0%AD%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF-3%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E8%97%8D%E5%A4%A9%E8%AE%8A%E7%B6%A0%E5%9C%B0-032703050.html
- [Schedule] Ballot-order lotteries are on 23 Oct. 
Voting is on 28 Nov. Winners are announced on 4 Dec and take office on 25 Dec.
 The CEC's election-night count on 28 Nov is the next data point. https://www.thenewslens.com/article/266629

BOTTOM LINE: The KMT holds 14 of 22 seats and is fielding 19 nominees, so the plausible range is below the 19 ceiling. The highest-impact toss-ups are New Taipei, Keelung, Taichung, Kaohsiung and Penghu, plus open-seat defences such as Changhua and Yilan. Hsinchu City and Chiayi City will not count for the KMT.

NOT FOUND: The CEC election-results database, since the vote has not happened. I also found no independent, non-partisan polls for Penghu, Hualien, Taitung, Yilan or Changhua. I could not open the Focus Taiwan list or the Taipei Times pages in full.

### BASE RATE
- [2022-11-26] KMT won 14 of 22 county and city posts, counting Chiayi City, which was held on 2022-12-18. It held 14 before the election, so the net change was 0. 
The vote table lists the KMT at 14 seats and the DPP at 5 (−1).
 The "13 of 21" figure on election night excluded Chiayi City. 
The seats the KMT lost were in Miaoli, Kinmen and Penghu.
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2018-11-24] KMT won 15 seats, up from 6 in 2014 (+9). The DPP fell from 13 to 6. 
KMT gains were Yilan, Changhua, Yunlin, Chiayi City and Penghu from the DPP, and Kinmen and Hualien from independents.
 https://globaltaiwan.org/2018/11/2018-taiwan-local-elections-what-happened/
- [2014-11-29] KMT won only 6 seats. 
It had held 14 of 22 before the election.
 That is an −8 swing, the largest single-cycle loss in this series. 
The DPP won 13 seats.
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [Historical series] KMT seat counts in the cycles above, using each cycle's own denominator: 2005–06 15 of 25, 2009 12 of 17, 2014 6 of 22, 2018 15 of 22, 2022 14 of 22. 
The 2005–06 count was 15 of 25 seats.
 
In 2009 the KMT won 12 seats, up from 11.
 Cycle-to-cycle changes since 2014 have been +9, −1 and −8 (2014 vs. the prior cycle), so swings of 8–9 seats have happened in a single election. These come in midterm "wave" years against the incumbent president's party. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2022-11-26] The 2022 KMT result was close to the pre-election consensus of a strong KMT showing. The DPP lost every northern seat, including Taipei, Taoyuan and Keelung. 
The KMT won Taipei and Taoyuan, which it had lost in 2014.
 The largest surprises were minor-seat losses, Miaoli (to a KMT rebel running as an independent), Kinmen and Penghu. In 2018 the Kaohsiung loss was unexpected: 
the DPP lost Kaohsiung, which it had not lost in 20 years, and the KMT candidate won by 9.1%.
 https://taiwaninsight.org/2018/11/29/taiwan-elections-2018-the-new-referendum-law-and-the-rejection-of-the-dpp/
- [2026-10-16] The CEC approved all 81 executive candidates, which is 23 for the six special municipalities and 58 for counties and cities. 
The KMT and DPP each nominated 19 candidates for these posts.
 Taoyuan is a two-candidate race. Election day is 2026-11-28, with results certified by 2026-12-04, before the 2026-11-29 resolution date. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-09-04] KMT formally holds 13 seats from the 2022 election, plus Miaoli's Chung Tung-chin. 
UDN says the KMT's formally nominated 13 seats were joined by independent Chung, who rejoined the KMT on 2025-09-14.
 The KMT and TPP are running joint candidates in New Taipei (Lee Szu-chuan), Hsinchu City, Chiayi City and Yilan. In Hsinchu City the backed candidate is independent Ann Kao. In Chiayi City the joint candidate is Chang Chi-kai, who is TPP. Neither would count as KMT-nominated under the fine print. The count therefore depends on how "nominated" is applied to joint candidates. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9121921
- [2026-09-07] The TPOC model, an unofficial model, has the KMT ahead in 14 counties and cities, the DPP in 7 and an independent in 1. 
It shows New Taipei and Hsinchu County within 2 points.
 The DPP-leaning seats are Yilan, Changhua, Chiayi County, Chiayi City, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung. The 14 KMT-leaning seats include Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, Kinmen and Lienchiang. I read this only as a search snippet because the page returned 403. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca
- [2026-07-30] YouTuber/street pollster Tsai Yu-chieh forecast KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. 
That is his own estimate and not a scientific poll.
 He had Yilan and Changhua flipping to the DPP. Yilan is affected by KMT incumbent Lin Zi-miao's court conviction. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20260730004987-260407
- [2026-10-17] Changhua is open because the incumbent is term-limited, and Wang Hui-mei has been absent from KMT rallies amid nomination disputes. KMT candidate Wei Ping-cheng faces DPP's Chen Su-yue. Independents Chiu Chien-fu and Chen Chung-chia are also running. 
The CommonWealth Magazine candidate list covers all 22 races.
 https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
- [2026-10-18] The KMT's current seats are 14 (Wikipedia). The seats are up for re-election in a midterm, where the president's party historically does badly (DPP lost seats in 2018 and 2022). That favours holding most of them, though there are open-seat risks in Changhua, Yilan and Hsinchu County. 
Wikipedia shows the KMT with 14 current seats, the DPP 5 and the TPP 1.
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [Forecast accuracy] I found no systematic record of how accurate prior seat-count forecasts were. The 2022 consensus of a KMT landslide was about right on the headline. Seat-count errors came from small, volatile races (Miaoli, Kinmen, Penghu). The 2026 forecasts above are an unofficial model and a pundit, with no published poll-aggregate seat count.

BOTTOM LINE: Historical KMT outcomes are 6, 15 and 14 seats in 2014, 2018 and 2022, and 2026 forecasts cluster around 13–14. The typical swing is ±1–2 seats when no wave is in play, but swings of 8–9 have happened. The main uncertainty is how joint KMT-TPP and independent-backed seats are counted under "officially nominated by the KMT".

NOT FOUND: An official CEC or KMT list of the exact number of KMT-nominated candidates, since the CEC figure of 19 may include non-county seats. A professional polling-based seat forecast from the last two weeks. A study of how accurate past seat forecasts were. A Wikipedia fetch of the 2026 page, which I did not do. The TPOC page could not be fetched.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-14] The Taipei race has moved since the earlier reports. Storm Media cites a TVBS poll with Chiang Wan-an (KMT) at 49% and Puma Shen (DPP) at 41%. The gap was 28 points in May. KMT officials say the "Yang Wave" is mostly energising the DPP base. They also say Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung and Taoyuan share a commuter belt, with about 700,000 New Taipei residents and about 100,000 Keelung residents commuting into Taipei. A Taipei loss would therefore raise risk in neighbouring seats too. https://world.storm.mg/articles/1171544
- [2026-10-18] Taipei Times editorial on the same TVBS series: the lead fell from 28 points to 8 this month. It says Chiang was widely expected to win easily a few months ago. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2026/10/18/2003866148
- [2026-09-22] The Taipei Trust in Democracy Association poll (pollster Tai Li-an, Sept 16–18, n=1,076) had Chiang at 41.7% and Shen at 40.5%. Other Taipei polls show a wide spread: Z.Media in June had Chiang +28 and TPOC in August had Chiang +15. Pollster house effects drive much of the disagreement. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6444322
- [2026-08-28] Templeman's structural argument (Aug 28 post): the KMT is defending 10 open seats and few incumbents, and incumbency is hard to beat without a national wave. He counts the KMT as holding 16 of 22 going in, which differs from the 14 used elsewhere. He assigns leaners and likely seats to give about 12 KMT and 7 DPP, with 1 independent. New Taipei and Penghu are coin flips. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-08-28] On blue-white coordination, Templeman says the TPP has stood down in every county-level race it lost in the joint polling primary, with no blue-white splits. The KMT yielded in Hsinchu City and, with the TPP, backed an independent in Chiayi County. In the other 19 localities the KMT runs a candidate with TPP backing. Cooperation is therefore a driver that mostly favours the KMT. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-10-12] TPOC's model has KMT's You Shu-chen (游淑貞) in Hualien at 54.35%. The two independents are at 23.55% and 22.10%. The pan-blue split is among independents, not against the KMT nominee. That leaves Hualien as a likely hold. https://ctinews.com/news/items/8knJqv0Yxo
- [2026-09-21] In Kinmen, a KMT-commissioned poll (Yu-Ching Indicator) has Chen Yu-chen at 45.4% against 10.7% for the runner-up independent. Six independents split the non-KMT vote. Kinmen is a likely gain or hold, although the poll is partisan. https://www.kmdn.gov.tw/1117/1271/1272/590324/
- [2026-08-03] Penghu is the likeliest flip toward the KMT. The DPP's Chen Kuang-fu did not run again, and the DPP nominated Wu Shu-chin. An ETtoday poll (Jul 14–Aug 3) shows KMT's Chen Chen-chung at 30.3%, DPP's Wu at 21.0% and independent Yeh Chu-lin at 17.8%. The Penghu field has six candidates. Source is the Chinese Wikipedia poll table (the poll page was last seen updated Oct 18). https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5
- [2026-10-17] Taichung is contested. A Trust Taiwan Friends poll (reported in LTN around Oct 13) had DPP's Ho Hsin-chun within 1.9 points of KMT's Johnny Chiang, with over 30% undecided. Yahoo reports a separate poll with Ho ahead by 1.6 points. The KMT caucus poll released today (Shih Hsin, Oct 15–16, n=1,070) shows Chiang +11.1. Taichung is no longer a safe "leans KMT" seat. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9820824 and https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5603302
- [2026-09-07] On Hsinchu County, TPOC's model has KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying at 50.91% against DPP's Cheng Chao-fang at 49.09%. Storm Media (Oct 14) reports that Cheng avoids showing a DPP identity in a KMT-leaning county. That suggests the "wave" is not winning over centrists there. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca
- [2026-05-04] Yilan: the blue-white polling primary found KMT's Wu Tsung-hsien at 27.6% against DPP's Lin Kuo-chang at 28.9% as a joint nominee. TPP's Chen Wan-hui would have polled 21.1%. The KMT nominee therefore started slightly behind. The KMT nominee also won a close internal primary (Feb 28) over Chang Sheng-te. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260504/3159772.htm
- [2026-10-16] Candidate lists confirm KMT-labelled nominees in Changhua (Wei Ping-cheng, who faces two independents plus DPP's Chen Su-yue) and Penghu, Kinmen and Pingtung (Su Ching-chuan against incumbent DPP Chou Chun-mi). PTS also lists independent Lin Chih-cheng in Taipei and independent Su Hui-huang in New Taipei. The KMT cannot field more than the 19 nominees, so every seat in the 12–16 range depends on about eight contested races. https://news.pts.org.tw/article/801606

BOTTOM LINE: The count turns on a short chain: Taipei and New Taipei resisting the "Ocean Wave" (the TVBS Taipei lead is now 8 points), Taichung and Keelung holding, open-seat defences in Changhua and Yilan, and gains in Penghu or Kinmen offsetting any losses. Structural analysis (Templeman) points to roughly 12, while party sources and the pundit give 13–14.

NOT FOUND: A neutral, post-Oct 10 poll for Changhua, Yilan, Pingtung, Penghu, Taitung or Yunlin. Also not found: an official KMT list that confirms the nominee count, and any published seat-count distribution.

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-16] The Central Election Commission approved all 81 executive candidates, and the KMT and DPP each nominated 19 for the 22 posts. The KMT's ceiling under the "officially nominated" rule is therefore 19. It is not running in Hsinchu City (supporting TPP incumbent Kao Hung-an), Chiayi City (supporting TPP's Chang Chi-kai) or Chiayi County (backing independent Wu Pin-jui). Vote is 2026-11-28. https://www.storm.mg/lifestyle/11173103
- [2026-10-18] Baseline: in 2022 the KMT won 14 of 22 seats (DPP 5, TPP 2, independents 2 in some counts). Wikipedia's 2022 table lists KMT 14, DPP 5, TPP 2. The KMT currently holds 14 seats, 4 of them special municipalities and 10 counties or cities. The KMT won 15 seats in both 2018 and 2005-06. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Taiwanese_local_elections
- [2026-09-07] Party self-estimate (media-reported, internal): KMT insiders expect 13–14 seats, and say repeating 2022 is "nearly unrealistic". Their assessment is that they hold 4 of the 6 special municipalities, with Changhua, Chiayi City and Yilan at roughly 50-50. They see a chance to regain Kinmen and Penghu. Chiayi City is a seat the KMT is not contesting, so it does not count toward its total. Reported via a 163.com repost of Taiwanese media, not a primary source. https://www.163.com/dy/article/L66FPFP20556CHBN.html
- [2026-09-07] DPP target is "hold 7, hope for 8, strive for 9", in the same report. Reaching 9 would require winning New Taipei. https://www.163.com/dy/article/L66FPFP20556CHBN.html
- [2026-07-30] Independent forecast (YouTuber/street pollster Tsai Yu-chieh, not a rigorous model): KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. He sees Yilan, Chiayi City and Changhua flipping to the DPP. He calls New Taipei and Penghu the hardest to call. https://ctinews.com/news/items/kYaDJgk4n9
- [2026-10-13/15] New Taipei polls conflict. One poll (Dai Li-an, 13 Oct) has DPP's Su Chiao-hui at 43.1% against KMT's Lee Szu-chuan at 30.0%. An earlier poll (Juwen Tianxia, about 15 Aug) had Lee at 45.74% and Su at 45.18%. This suggests the KMT's 14th seat is at risk. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E7%82%B8%E8%A3%82%E4%BA%86-%E6%88%B4%E7%AB%8B%E5%AE%89%E9%A9%9A%E7%88%86%E5%8F%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF-%E5%B0%87%E6%9C%89%E8%90%BD%E5%B7%AE-%E9%BB%9E%E5%90%8D-%E6%B4%8B%E6%B5%81%E6%95%88%E6%87%89-062945980.html
- [2026-10-17] KMT-commissioned polls (partisan): Taichung, Chiang Chi-chen 39.8% against DPP's Ho Hsin-chun 28.7%. Keelung (15 Oct, KMT party branch poll), incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang 42.9% against Tung Tzu-wei 38.3%. A TVBS poll before the Taipei debate reportedly had Chiang Wan-an behind Puma Shen by 11%. That is a headline fragment and I did not verify it. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E8%97%8D%E5%86%8D%E5%85%AC%E5%B8%83%E6%B1%9F%E5%95%9F%E8%87%A3%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E9%A0%98%E5%85%88-%E7%B6%A0%E5%8F%8D%E8%AD%8F-%E6%94%AF%E6%8C%81%E8%80%85%E5%BF%AB%E6%94%BE%E5%81%87%E5%8E%BB-071157554.html
- [2026-07-29] A Formosa Foundation poll found 34.5% of respondents wanted the DPP to win more seats, 31.2% the KMT and 12.8% the TPP. Among respondents with no party leaning, 47.3% were undecided. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF%E6%8F%AD%E8%97%8D%E7%B6%A0%E7%99%BD-%E6%81%90%E6%80%96%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%9B%A4-%E9%81%B8%E6%88%B0%E6%B1%BA%E5%8B%9D%E9%97%9C%E9%8D%B5%E7%AB%9F%E6%98%AF%E9%80%99%E7%BE%A4%E4%BA%BA-043348868.html
- [2026-10-10 approx.] Prediction market: Polymarket "Party Winner" (which party wins the most executive seats) prices the KMT at about 88%, the DPP at about 13% and the TPP below 1%. Volume is about $221k. It resolves on official CEC results and independents don't count for any party. It does not give a seat-count distribution. Earlier readings were 88% at open (Apr), 81–83% (2 Apr) and 84% (late Jun). A Polymarket dashboard snapshot shows 71% KMT, but its date is unclear. Taiwan has blocked Polymarket and Kalshi over election-betting rules. https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner/will-kuomintang-kmt-win-the-most-head-of-local-government-elections-in-the-2026-taiwan-local-elections
- [2026-09-21] Taipei market on Octagon AI: Chiang Wan-an (KMT) at 81% market and 75.4% model. https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/international-elections/taipei-mayoral-election-winner/
- [2026-08 to 2026-10] KMT chair Cheng Li-wun said 2022 was a high mark and "maintaining" it would already be a strong result. She named Chiayi City and Changhua as the hardest of the KMT-held seats, and Hsinchu County and Yilan as "cautiously optimistic". She has not named a seat target in the sources I found. Note that Chiayi City is no longer a KMT-nominated seat. https://udn.com/news/story/6656/9652953
- [2026-10-17] Changhua is a specific risk: incumbent Wang Hui-mei (KMT member who was not renominated) skipped KMT rallies for nominee Wei Ping-cheng. The DPP's Chen Su-yue is running. Reported by Liberty Times and ETtoday. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
- Track record: pre-election seat estimates in Taiwan are usually party-sourced and polls are often party-commissioned. I found no assessment of how accurate such forecasts have been. The KMT's 2022 result (14) was close to its pre-election expectations as I remember them, but I did not verify that this cycle.

BOTTOM LINE: The consensus range is about 12–14 KMT-nominated seats. The KMT's own estimate is 13–14, the one independent forecaster says 13, and the KMT is not contesting Hsinchu City, Chiayi City or Chiayi County. Downside risks are New Taipei, Changhua, Yilan and possibly Taipei. The upside is Kinmen or Penghu, and the Polymarket party-winner market only shows the KMT as favorite (about 88%) for the most seats.

NOT FOUND: No published seat-count probability distribution, Polymarket or Metaculus market on the exact KMT seat count, official government projection, or academic or poll-aggregator seat model. I also did not find a documented accuracy review of past Taiwanese local-election seat forecasts.

### HIGH CASE
- [2026-10-17] Most of the late-cycle public polling in the Wikipedia poll table (last edited 17 Oct) favours the KMT in the north and centre. Taipei: TVBS (3–7 Oct) has Chiang 49%, Shen 41%. Taoyuan: a September poll has Chang 47.0%, Huang 25.9%. Taichung: Shih Hsin (15–16 Oct) has Chiang 39.8%, Ho 28.7%, and TVBS (7–11 Sep) had 45.1% to 32.5%. A high case needs all three to hold and also needs New Taipei. The other New Taipei polls are not uniformly bad for the KMT: TVBS (29 Sep–2 Oct) has Lee 42.6%, Su 35.9%, and Juwen Tianxia has Lee ahead by 0.6 points. The 43.1–30.0 DPP lead came from the Hsin-min Association poll. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5
- [2026-08-28] Templeman's tiers, read as KMT-nominated seats, give a clean ceiling. Safe, Likely and Leans KMT total 12 (the "Leans KMT (5)" label actually lists six places). Adding the two toss-ups, New Taipei and Penghu, gives 14. Adding the two KMT-nominated "Leans DPP" seats, Yilan and Changhua, gives 16. Pingtung would be a 17th. Chiayi City is outside the KMT count. His own base case was 12 KMT to 7 DPP, with the toss-ups left to coin flips. So the high scenario is 15–16, and 17 or more would need a DPP-wave failure in the south. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-08-28] Templeman says the KMT–TPP cooperation is holding up "surprisingly well", with no blue-white splits in any county-level executive race except Hsinchu County's Jhubei city race. The TPP's nominees stood down after losing the joint polling primaries. The KMT is running a TPP-backed candidate in 19 localities. The high path depends on this holding. The TPP's Sept 2026 break in Hsinchu County is the one visible crack. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-09-17] Kinmen looks like a near-certain KMT gain-back: the KMT-commissioned poll has Chen Yu-chen at 45.4%. The runner-up, independent Li Wen-liang, is at 10.7%. Six independents split the rest, and none of the other five exceeds 3.5%. Local reporting says the other large clans, Li and Yang, are not fielding candidates, and Chen has clan backing. Kinmen is KMT-held in the tally, so it is a hold, not a gain, in the count of 14. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9761297
- [2026-10-12] Kinmen is described as "one blue versus six independents". Chen is still clearly ahead, and the contest is for second place. The pan-blue vote is not split there, so Kinmen is not a downside risk. https://vip.udn.com/vip/story/121160/9807702
- [2026-10-17] Penghu is the best flip candidate. The Wikipedia page lists the DPP nominee as Wu Shu-chin (incumbent Chen Kuang-fu is not on the ballot) against KMT's Chen Chen-chung. Independents Yeh Chu-lin and Chen Chin-chuan are also running, and the TSU has a candidate. The earlier March poll had the DPP at 30.4%, the KMT at 10.7% and Yeh at 17.8%. Those numbers pre-date the DPP nominee switch. A fragmented non-DPP field is a risk as well as a chance for the KMT. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89
- [2026-07-30] Pundit Tsai Yu-chieh's mid-range case is KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. The eastern seats he rates strongly KMT are Hualien (Yu Shu-chen 43%, with two independents splitting the non-KMT vote at 33% and 24%) and Taitung (Wu Hsiu-hua 55%, DPP 24%, independent 21%). Splits among non-KMT challengers are a mechanism that lifts the KMT floor in the east. https://www.ftvnews.com/news/detail/2026731W0271
- [2026-05-04] Yilan is the KMT's most plausible high-end flip against the lean-DPP rating, but evidence is thin. The joint blue-white primary poll showed Wu Tsung-hsien trailing the DPP's Lin Kuo-chang 27.6% to 28.9%. That is a 1.3-point gap, within the margin of error. TVBS (Mar) had Lin 33%, Wu 28%, and 53% of TPP supporters would shift to Wu in a two-way race. This is an old poll. I found no newer independent Yilan poll. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260504/3159772.htm
- [2026-10-12] Yunlin, Miaoli and Nantou look safe on current evidence. A Juwen Tianxia poll (May) had Chang Chia-chun 49.52%, ahead of the DPP's Liu Chien-kuo by 10.6 points. Nantou and Miaoli both have incumbents. The high case needs no surprise losses among these incumbent-held seats. Incumbents are rarely beaten without a national wave, which is Templeman's central structural point. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up
- [2026-10-17] The Changhua split is the main internal risk to the high path. Magistrate Wang Hui-mei again missed the KMT rally for Wei Ping-cheng, and the DPP's Chen Su-yue is the favourite among analysts. Two independents, Chiu Chien-fu and Chen Chung-chia, are also on the ballot, and they may draw votes from either side. The high case needs either an independent splitting the non-KMT vote or Wang's faction coming back, and neither is confirmed. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/Changhua/breakingnews/5609245
- [2026-09-07] The TPOC model's 14 KMT-leading seats include New Taipei and Hsinchu County, both within 2 points. This is the only model-based seat count I found, and its ceiling is 14. No published model or poll aggregate puts the KMT above 14. A 15–16 result would therefore beat every available estimate and need the toss-ups and one lean-DPP seat (Changhua or Yilan) to go the KMT's way. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca
- [2026-10-12] A signal that would move toward the high end: late-campaign polls showing Su leading Lee by less than 2 points in New Taipei, a narrow Yilan result, and Wang Hui-mei joining Wei's events in Changhua. A statutory poll blackout starts on 18 Nov (10 days before the vote), so these signals have about 4 weeks to appear. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is 15–16 KMT-nominated seats. It needs Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, New Taipei and Penghu plus at least one of Yilan or Changhua. No source projects more than 14, and 17 or more would need the south's lean-DPP seats such as Pingtung to flip as well. It does not look likely, and the one-seat-higher outcomes (15) are the realistic upside.

NOT FOUND: Any non-partisan poll for Yilan or Changhua from the last 60 days. Any published seat model above 14 KMT seats. A Hualien or Taitung poll from October.

### LOW CASE
- [2026-10-14] Storm Media (English) reports a TVBS poll with Taipei's Chiang Wan-an (KMT) at 49% and Puma Shen (DPP) at 41%. The gap was 28 points in May. KMT officials told the outlet they are losing the online fight and that TPP supporters have gone quiet. This is the main low-scenario signal. The 2022 consensus was that Taipei was safe, and this poll makes it a real contest. The same article says about 700,000 New Taipei residents and about 100,000 Keelung residents commute into Taipei. Strategists therefore see a Shen effect spilling into New Taipei and Keelung, so a Taipei swing could pull those two seats down with it. https://world.storm.mg/articles/1171544

- [2026-10-14] Storm's KMT sources also say the "Yang Wave" is mostly mobilising DPP loyalists. They expect it to raise DPP turnout, not convert centrists. Younger KMT councilors call it "very dangerous" if backing Shen becomes seen as cool. That is a turnout mechanism that could hit several northern seats at once. https://world.storm.mg/articles/1171544

- [2026-10-15] Kalshi had Chiang at 64% to win Taipei and Shen at 38% (the two sum to over 100%). That is well below the Octagon market reading of 81% from Sept 20. The Yahoo online poll that drove the Sept 20 repricing drew 42,700 users, so it is a self-selected sample and not a scientific poll. The market has moved against the KMT in about four weeks. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtaipeimayor/taipei-mayoral-election-winner/kxtaipeimayor-26nov28

- [2026-06-01] The Global Views (Gvm) poll, fielded 2 Mar–14 Apr with 14,251 respondents, found the DPP ahead of the KMT in Yilan, 27.4% to 20.0%. Adding the TPP's 2.2% to the KMT still left it 5 points behind. The poll also showed Changhua with the KMT ahead by only 5.4 points (26.2% to 20.8%), Yunlin ahead by 5.9 points, and Penghu with the DPP ahead. In every case more than 45% were undecided. This is the only large-sample, non-partisan seat-by-seat poll I found. It shows Yilan as the most likely KMT-held seat to flip. https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/130553

- [2026-07-30] The Tsai Yu-chieh forecast (KMT 13) already includes losses in Yilan, Changhua and Chiayi City. Its Yilan figure is DPP's Lin Kuo-chang 53% to KMT's Wu Tsung-hsien 47%. It cites an internal poll showing Wu 1.3 points behind. It has Penghu as a three-way tie: DPP 35%, independent Yeh Chu-lin 33%, KMT's Chen Chen-chung 32%. So Penghu is an additional loss. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20260730004987-260407

- [2026-03-23] A TVBS poll in Yilan had the DPP's Lin at 33%, the KMT's Wu at 28% and the TPP's Chen Wan-hui at 8%. The KMT and TPP later chose Wu as their joint candidate through a poll in early May, per Chinese Wikipedia. Wu therefore carries the unified vote, but he has trailed in all three of the polls above. Incumbent Lin Tzu-miao's 12.5-year first-instance sentence is the drag. https://cc.tvbs.com.tw/portal/file/poll_center/2026/20260323/19c44cdc976c0baac442963d0f74e3bd.pdf

- [2026-06-01] In Changhua the Gvm poll flagged a possible four-way field. That has happened: independent Chiu Chien-fu has split from the DPP. The pan-green split may help the KMT, while the KMT's own nomination dispute, with Wang Hui-mei absent from rallies as of Oct 17, may hurt it. The net effect is unclear. The 2022 Miaoli loss to a KMT rebel shows how such splits cost the party seats. https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/130553

- [2026-10-18] The Hsinchu County race is close in the TPOC model. It shows KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying at about 50.9% against the DPP's Cheng Chao-fang. That is within one point and is a "strong contest" seat. The TPP broke its partnership with the KMT there in September. A DPP win in Hsinchu County would be a loss beyond the usual list of at-risk seats. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca

- [2026-10-18] The same TPOC model has New Taipei at KMT 50.58% to DPP 49.42%. It notes that online buzz favours the DPP's Su Chiao-hui. The model's 14 KMT seats include Penghu, Hsinchu County and New Taipei, which are all within a few points. A plausible low path therefore needs only the tightest seats to go the other way: New Taipei, Hsinchu County, Yilan, Changhua and Penghu. That would leave the KMT with about 9–11 seats if Taipei and Keelung held. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca

- [2026-09-21] Kinmen, the KMT's own commissioned poll, has Chen Yu-chen at 45.4% against 10.7% for the top independent. The poll is partisan. Its sample showed the six independents together at 17.0%. Kinmen and Lienchiang look safe, so the floor is limited by about 2 safe island seats plus Taipei, Taoyuan, Miaoli, Nantou, Taitung and Hualien. Hualien is a three-way contest, with KMT's You Shu-chen at 43% against two independents totalling 57% in Tsai's forecast. https://www.kmdn.gov.tw/1117/1271/1272/590324/

- [2026-10-11] Commentator Huang Wei-han said the KMT could lose "5+2" seats. He named Hsinchu County, Changhua, Chiayi, Yilan, New Taipei and Keelung as at risk, and said Tsai Ing-wen's role as DPP campaign head adds a co-occurrence effect. KMT vice chair Hsiao Hsu-tsen conceded the party is "fearful and cautious". That is a media-pundit view and an acknowledgement from the party, not data. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%9C%8B%E6%B0%91%E9%BB%A82026%E6%9C%80%E6%85%98%E6%81%90%E4%B8%9F5-2%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82-%E9%BB%83%E6%9A%90%E7%80%9A%E4%BC%B03%E6%88%B0%E5%8D%80%E5%B7%B2%E8%A2%AB%E7%BF%BB%E7%9B%A4-%E8%94%A1%E8%8B%B1%E6%96%87%E6%93%8D%E7%9B%A4%E6%9C%89%E5%85%B1%E4%BC%B4%E6%95%88%E6%87%89-130800606.html

BOTTOM LINE: A low outcome of about 9–11 KMT seats needs the Taipei-led northern swing to pull in New Taipei, Keelung or Hsinchu County, on top of losing Yilan, Changhua and Penghu. Signals would be Taipei polls going to a tie, and the Kalshi Taipei price falling further. Independent polls after the Oct 23 ballot-order lottery would also show it.

NOT FOUND: Non-partisan polls from the last two weeks for Yilan, Changhua, Penghu and Hsinchu County. A quantitative estimate of how much a Taipei swing carries into New Taipei and Keelung. Kalshi and Polymarket prices on the KMT seat total. The TVBS poll sample details behind the 49–41 Taipei figure.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: what the resolution source currently shows, and whether the value is already known or fixed as of today.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).

## Calibration guidance

- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Markets and experts are priors, not anchors.** If a SAME QUESTION market, analyst consensus, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior — centre near them and widen — and name the specific evidence they lack whenever you move away. RELATED markets are context only.
- **Open bounds carry real mass.** Where a bound is OPEN, the outcome can land beyond it and the question then resolves "below range" / "above range". Put honest probability there (p_below_min / p_above_max in the output) instead of squeezing the distribution inside the displayed range; the season's worst losses were outcomes that landed where the distribution had ~2%.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
  "p10": <number>,
  "p25": <number>,
  "p50": <number>,
  "p75": <number>,
  "p90": <number>,
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move your p50 by a quarter of your p10-p90 width if false; [] if none>"]
}

Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).