What will be the Port of Los Angeles's total container volume during October 2026?

- [2026-10-09] The Port of LA's September 2026 total was 1,042,652 TEUs, an all-time monthly record. It beat the July 2025 record by more than 20,000 TEUs. The port's own release is the primary source. 
The release says September was the busiest month in its 118-year history.
 https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo
- [2026-10-13] September breakdown: 
loaded imports of about 545,696 TEUs (+19% year over year), loaded exports of 125,751 (+10%), and empties of about 371,206, also a record.
 Year to date through September was 
nearly 8.1 million TEUs, more than 3% ahead of the same period last year.
 https://gcaptain.com/port-of-los-angeles-sets-all-time-cargo-record-as-imports-surge/
- [2025-11-18] The year-ago value is October 2025: 
848,424.25 TEUs, -6.25% year over year, on the port's 2025 statistics table.
 The news release rounded this to 
848,431 TEUs.
 October 2025 was 
down 3.9% from September 2025's 883,053.
 https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025
- [2026-10-09] Seroka's October guidance is about 900,000 TEUs. 
He said most holiday merchandise should be in the country by November.
 That would be roughly 6% above October 2025 and roughly 14% below September 2026. 
He cited typhoon-related schedule disruptions in Asia, cargo "roll pools" before China's national holiday, and continued holiday replenishment as reasons volumes should stay elevated.
 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-09] Maritime Executive reports the same guidance. 
The port expects about 900,000 TEUs in October. November and December are harder to predict because importers have already built inventories.
 https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus
- [2026 summer] Trajectory: May was 
840,165 TEUs, up 17% year over year.
 
The port passed 1 million TEUs in June, then had another strong July, and kept momentum through August and September.
 
July through September was nearly 3 million TEUs, the busiest quarter on record. June through September was nearly 4 million.
 https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/imports-flow-into-port-of-los-angeles-with-window-of-stability-open/823187/
- [2026-10-08] The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker expects a national slowdown. 
US imports are projected to ease from an estimated 2.28M TEUs in September to 2.25M in October and 2M in November.
 
September was forecast at +8.2% year over year, and October at +8.5%.
 https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026
- [2026-10-17, snippet only] The Port Optimizer Signal shows these weekly import volumes. Week 41 (Oct 11–17) is 132,935–134,324 TEU, up about 19–20% year over year. Week 42 (Oct 18–24) is about 117,710–119,952 TEU, up about 13–15%. Week 43 (Oct 25–31) is about 118,207 TEU. These are manifest-based loaded-import estimates, not total TEUs, and they are subject to change. The search-result metadata dated these pages oddly, so treat the figures as unconfirmed. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-15] Neighbouring Port of Long Beach had a record September of 997,177 TEUs, up 25% year over year. 
(The same FreightWaves item is in the prior retrieval.)
 The Vincent Thomas Bridge deck project starts November 7, after October, so it should not affect October volume. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers
- [Release timing] Past cargo releases came out mid-month: October 2025 data on 2025-11-18, November 2025 data on 2025-12-16, and September 2026 data on 2026-10-09. October 2026 data is therefore likely to come between about Nov 10 and Nov 18. That is close to the 2026-11-18 resolution date, so the number could post right at the deadline. https://portoflosangeles.org/news/latest-news
- [Caveat] The 2026 statistics page loaded, but its monthly table did not appear in the fetched or rendered text. The September and October 2025 figures above come from the 2025 table, the news release and press coverage. Treat the September 2026 figure as confirmed by the port's release, not the table.

BOTTOM LINE: The latest confirmed value is 1,042,652 TEUs for September 2026, and the year-ago October 2025 value is 848,424. The port's own October guidance of about 900,000 TEUs (+6% year over year, -14% month over month) is the anchor. Weekly import signals running 13–20% above last year's levels point to upside risk versus that guidance.

NOT FOUND: The October 2026 value, which is not yet published. The 2026 statistics table text with the monthly "Total TEUs" column. A confirmed official release date for the October 2026 data.

- **[2026-10-09]** September 2026 total was 1,042,652 TEUs, an all-time record. The port's own release is the starting point for the Sep→Oct change below. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo
- **[2026-10-09/13]** Seroka guided October 2026 to "about"/"in the range of" 900,000 TEUs. That is roughly –13.7% from September. He cited typhoon-delayed cargo, pre-China-holiday roll pools and holiday replenishment. He called Nov/Dec "harder to predict". https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus ; https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- **[2025-11-18]** October 2025 was 848,431 TEUs on the port's release. The release and the stats page differ by a few units (848,424 is quoted elsewhere). Components: loaded imports 429,283, exports 123,768, empties 295,380. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo
- **[2025-10-15 / 2025-11-18]** Same window in 2025: September 883,053 → October 848,424, a –3.9% sequential move. Year over year, October was –6.3% against 905,025 in October 2024. https://www.cbinsights.com/investor/port-of-oakland (secondary source; the Sept 2025 figure is also on https://portoflosangeles.org/news/latest-news)
- **[2024-10]** October 2024 was 905,025 TEUs (from the secondary source above). The Sept 2024 figure is not directly retrieved. Back-solving from "eased 7.5%" gives about 954,000, so the Sep→Oct 2024 move was about –5%. That is my derivation, not a published number.
- **[2023-10-23 / 2023-11-17]** Same window in 2023: September 748,440 → October 725,775 TEUs, a –3.0% sequential move. October was +7% year over year. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2023-news-releases/news_111723_oct_cargo ; https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2023-news-releases/news_102323_sept_cargo
- **[2023-10-23]** Seroka's forecast accuracy in 2023: he said "October looks flat versus last year". The actual result was +7%, a miss of about 7 points on the upside. https://www.ajot.com/insights/full/port-of-las-seroka-reports-5-volume-increase-in-september
- **[2026-10-09 / 2026-10-13]** The three-year Sep→Oct change was –3% to –5%. The implied 2026 guide of about –14% is much steeper, which suggests it is conservative or that front-loading is expected to reverse. Seroka's forecast of 900,000 would still be +6.1% year over year over 848,424. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-los-angeles-long-beach-cargo-panama-suez-canal-vietnam-1239346167/
- **[2026-10]** NRF Global Port Tracker (cited by gCaptain): October US imports are forecast at 2.25M TEUs, easing from September, with +8.5% year over year. https://gcaptain.com/port-of-los-angeles-sets-all-time-cargo-record-as-imports-surge/
- **[2026-10-12]** September 2026 components: loaded imports 545,696 (+19% year over year), exports 125,751 (+10%), and a record 371,206 empties. The high empties share is a volatility source. Year to date through September was nearly 8.1M, up more than 3%. https://container-news.com/port-of-los-angeles-sets-monthly-cargo-record/
- **[2026-10-17]** The 2026 stats page (the resolution source) fetched with no readable monthly table. The October 2026 figure is not yet published. Port releases came on Nov 17/18 in 2023 and 2025, which is just inside the Nov 18 resolution date. https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026

BOTTOM LINE: In the past three years, LA's October fell 3–5% from September and finished between 725,775 and 905,025 TEUs. In 2023, a "flat" forecast from Seroka missed by about +7 points on the upside. The 900,000 guide implies a –14% fall from September, far steeper than the usual seasonal drop. A repeat of the typical –3% to –5% seasonal drop from 1,042,652 would give roughly 990,000–1,010,000, so the guide looks conservative.

NOT FOUND: The monthly table values from the port's 2024–2026 statistics pages (the pages rendered without data). The exact Sept 2024 figure. October 2022 and earlier. Any official October 2026 interim count. Any published forecast record beyond the 2023 example.

- [2026-10-17] **Weekly manifest imports point to an October total near the ~900k guide, not well above it.** The Port Optimizer Signal (rendered) shows weekly loaded imports for 2026 against 2025.
  - Weeks 35–39 (late Aug to Sep) ran 111.8k, 116.0k, 94.0k, 123.0k and 141.0k.
  - Week 40 (Sep 28–Oct 4) was 104.8k, against 73.5k a year earlier.
  - Week 41 (Oct 11–17) was 132.8k, up 18.8% on 111.8k.
  - Week 42 is 101.8k (+2.5%) and week 43 is 167.8k (+83%). Earlier snapshots in the colleague report showed week 42 at about 118–120k and week 43 at about 118k.
  - Weeks 42–43 are still being filled in and are unstable. Treat the week 40 and week 41 figures as firmer.
  - My rough sum for Oct 1–31 is 415–480k loaded imports, against 429k in October 2025. With an import share of roughly 50–52% of total TEU, that implies about 820–940k total. The "+13–20% year over year" reading from the weekly data applies only to week 41, not to the whole month. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/

- [2026-10-17] **Import-to-total conversion.** Imports were 52.3% of total TEU in September 2026 (545,696 of 1,042,652) and 50.6% in October 2025 (429,283 of 848,424). Empties are the swing factor. They were a record 371k in September, against 295k in October 2025. If empties normalise, total TEU falls faster than imports do. This is my calculation from figures already in the reports above. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo

- [2026-10-01] **Trans-Pacific supply is the first driver (carriers and weather, not the port, control it).** C.H. Robinson's October update (fetched) says Golden Week (Oct 1–7) blank sailings keep effective capacity reduced through roughly mid-October.
  - Typhoons in Asia closed some large Chinese container ports and caused port omissions and vessel bunching.
  - Global congestion absorbs about 12% of vessel capacity, a four-year high.
  - Late and bunched arrivals can push discharge into late October and early November, which fits Seroka's "roll pool" reference.
  - If post-holiday departures clear quickly, space loosens in the second half of October. That would mean fewer ship arrivals in LA in November, not October. https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/oct-2026-freight-market-update/ocean/

- [2026-09 / 2026-10] **Blank sailings were lighter than normal.** Xeneta/eeSea data (search snippet; the page itself was not opened) show just under 13% of October Asia–US/Europe capacity blanked. That compares with nearly 18% of trans-Pacific capacity last Golden Week and about 24% in 2023. Planned Asia–US capacity for October is about 2.3M TEU, up from 2.28M in September. Blanked capacity there rises from 129k to 314k TEU in October. Drewry's tracker (about Oct 13) shows 34 void sailings across East-West trades for weeks 42–46, a 5% cancellation rate. Together this suggests supply is not a binding cap on LA arrivals. https://tbgfs.com/golden-week-blank-sailings-down-compared-to-recent-years/ ; https://www.indexbox.io/blog/post-golden-week-container-market-capacity-returns-rates-ease-2/

- [2026-10-13] **Routing diversion is the second driver.** FreightWaves, covering the Oct 9 briefing, reports Seroka saying carriers are shifting cargo to LA from Panama Canal routings. He cited drought constraints and higher fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Purchase orders in Asia were described as "solid", and November–December are hard to forecast. C.H. Robinson says the Oct 1 Neopanamax draft cut was cancelled, but daily transits fell from 34 to 32 on Sep 15. Diversion is therefore still supported but not intensifying. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk

- [2026-09-24] **Tariff and policy timing is the third driver (controlled by the US Treasury, USTR and China).** Bessent extended the Busan truce from Nov 10 to Jan 10, 2027. As of the latest Thomson Reuters analysis (~Oct 12), the extension is not formally documented. Separately, three US measures lapse on Nov 9–10. They include the pause on China-linked ship fees and Section 301 exclusions. Importers could front-load into late October to beat Nov 9–10. That is an upside risk to October arrivals, but it only counts if the cargo is already at sea. The Nov 9–10 lapse falls after October ends. Sources: https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/section-301-exclusions-expiration/ ; https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/092426-us-says-trade-truce-with-china-extended-till-jan-10-2027-ahead-of-trump-xi-meet

- [2026-10-15] **Demand and inventory is the fourth driver.** Wholesale inventory-to-sales has fallen from 1.30 to 1.20, and upstream warehouse utilisation is 36.8%, the lowest since March 2022. Those figures point to room for restocking, which supports holiday-replenishment imports. FreightWaves' Freightonomics also says the ongoing Iran conflict keeps diesel costs elevated. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers

- [2026-10-16] **Terminal capacity is not a constraint in October.** Port Optimizer shows average terminal times of about 61 minutes and turn times of about 73 minutes at LA. Long Beach's Vincent Thomas Bridge deck project starts Nov 7 (already noted by colleagues). It does not affect October.

- [2026-10-17] **Sequence needed for each outcome.**
  - For a total at or above 900k, ships delayed by typhoons and Golden Week must arrive in weeks 42–43 as manifests suggest. Empties must stay elevated, at least about 330k or more.
  - For a total near 1.0M, the Panama diversion and tariff front-loading must hold up through Oct 31, and week 43 must reach the 168k that one snapshot shows.
  - A fall to about 830–870k would need weeks 42–43 to land near the earlier 118k snapshots, or empties to normalise.
  - Publication has to come by Nov 18. Port releases came on Nov 17/18 in 2023 and 2025, so the number can post right at the deadline.

BOTTOM LINE: Weekly import manifests and the lighter-than-usual blank sailings put October near Seroka's ~900k, with a plausible band of about 820–950k. That is narrower and lower than the "+13–20% year over year" reading, because only week 41 shows that gain. The main swing factors are timing of delayed typhoon and Golden Week arrivals, empties, and Panama diversion. Policy events fall mostly after October.

NOT FOUND: A stable week 42–43 manifest count (the snapshots disagree). Readable 2026 monthly "Total TEUs" table text. Any official October interim count. A confirmed release date for the October 2026 data. Whether the Xeneta/eeSea page text matches its snippet, since I could not open the page in full.

- [2026-10-09] The Port of LA's own forecast for October is about 900,000 TEU. Executive Director Gene Seroka gave it at the monthly briefing, which is the main expert estimate for this quantity. Reuters, FreightWaves and Sourcing Journal all repeat the figure; the briefing was a "range of 900,000" in Maritime Executive's wording. Reasons Seroka gave for volumes staying elevated: typhoon schedule disruptions, China pre-holiday "roll pools", and holiday replenishment. He called November and December hard to forecast. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-12] Sourcing Journal calls 900,000 TEU the minimum implied outcome. That would be +6.1% on October 2025's 848,424 TEU. Its wording suggests Seroka's "around 900,000" may be a floor, but the port itself did not say so. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-los-angeles-long-beach-cargo-panama-suez-canal-vietnam-1239346167/
- [2026-10-09] Confirmed baseline from the port's release: September was a record 1,042,652 TEU. Loaded imports were 545,696, loaded exports 125,751 and empties about 371,206 (a record). Year to date through September is nearly 8.1M TEU, up more than 3%. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo
- [2026-10-08] The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker, which covers all U.S. ports and not LA alone, forecasts October imports at 2.25M TEU (+8.5% YoY), up from 2.11M in its September report. It sees November at 2.0M (-1%) and December at 2.02M. NRF says "we're likely past the busiest part of the year". https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-is-wrapping-up (search-result text; I did not fetch the page: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up)
- [2026-10-13] A mid-October Port Optimizer snapshot (not a forecast) shows the Oct 11–17 import week (wk 41) at 132,935 TEU, with 21 scheduled vessels. Weekly import-only data is the best near-term check on the 900k figure. A cached page shows 298,343 TEU of planned containers. Treat the snapshot as unverified, since the page was not fetched. https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-12] How accurate Seroka's guidance has been recently: in early September he guided to "exceed 900,000" TEU for September, and the outcome was 1,042,652, about 16% above. For August, the actual was 955,907 (-0.3% YoY). Recent guidance has therefore run low in a surging market. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/september-peak-shipping-season-import-volumes-nrf-global-port-tracker-1239207519/
- [2026-10-08] How accurate the NRF tracker has been: its August report put September at 2.16M, then 2.31M in September's report, then 2.28M in October's report. Its October forecast moved 2.13M → 2.11M → 2.25M across successive reports. NRF has revised repeatedly and in the wrong direction (too low) while the peak extended. https://sgbonline.com/nrf-u-s-container-imports-slows-as-expected-in-october/
- [2026-10-09] Reuters/gCaptain: Seroka cited Panama Canal draft restrictions, high fuel costs and lower tariffs as drivers. He expects roughly a 5% additional diversion to LA/Long Beach, and later said it is "probably a little bit more". https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/
- [2026-10-16] Peer signal: Long Beach set a record 997,177 TEU in September (+25% YoY). https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers
- [2026-10-09] The "7% decline" headline in the question is the port's FY2026/27 budget assumption, not an October forecast. The $3.4B budget was approved in June and assumes a 7% cargo decline. It is a conservative planning figure that sits well below current run-rates. https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026
- [2026-10-17] The port's official 2026 statistics page loaded but returned no readable monthly table in the fetch. I could not confirm that an October figure exists; it is not yet published and is expected after the early-November briefing. https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026

BOTTOM LINE: The only direct expert point estimate is Seroka's ~900,000 TEU for October, which would be +6% YoY and about 14% below September's record. His September guidance came in about 16% too low and NRF's national numbers have been revised up, so the risk to that figure looks skewed upward, though NRF and Seroka both expect a post-peak slowdown. I found no prediction-market or community percentiles.

NOT FOUND: prediction-market or community forecasts for October LA TEU; any third-party (non-port) LA-specific October forecast; an October 2026 actual in the port table; a readable monthly table on the statistics page; a fuller Port Optimizer October-to-date total.

- [2026-10-17] A Port Optimizer render (manifest-based loaded imports, subject to change) gives these weekly TEU for 2026. Wk39 was 140,979 (Sep 27–Oct 3, vs 93,572 in 2025). Wk40 was 104,761 (vs 73,533). Wk41 (Oct 11–17) was 132,821 (+18.8% YoY, vs 111,762). The wk42 and wk43 estimates swing a lot between snapshots, so they are low-confidence. Wk42 reads 101,843 in this render and about 118–120k in earlier snippets. Wk43 reads 167,818 here and 118–152k elsewhere. Wk40 and wk41 alone are about 238k, and a 4.4-week October at 105–135k per week implies roughly 480–560k loaded imports, against 429,283 in Oct 2025. That is a high-side signal, since Seroka's 900k would need only about 470k imports with typical exports and empties. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-17] Port Optimizer shows planned inbound containers of 309,236 across 135 planned vessels. An earlier snapshot showed 298,343 across 126 vessels. Scheduled vessels run 21–24 per week, so there is no sign of the schedule thinning out in the second half of October. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-13] Fetched FreightWaves piece: Seroka said Asia purchase orders "remain solid", with the uncertainty confined to November and December. Importers are also shifting cargo to LA from Panama Canal routings because of drought and higher Middle East-related fuel costs. This is a structural diversion, not just a one-month pull-forward. The article's "1.42 million TEUs" for September is a typo for 1,042,652. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-08/09] NRF/Hackett raised its October US import forecast by 6.6% in one report, from 2.11M to 2.25M TEU (+8.5% YoY). Its earlier path was 2.13M, then 2.11M, then 2.25M. Gold said month-to-month differences are "little more than a rounding error". That reads as a plateau, not a cliff. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/nrf-peak-shipping-season-global-port-tracker-descartes-imports-cargo-1239335219/
- [2026-10-08] The NRF tracker's 2.25M for October is only about 1.3% below its 2.28M estimate for September. LA's implied 900k is 14% below September, so LA's guide is much steeper than the national forecast. If LA fell only 1–5% from September, October would be about 990k–1.03M. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up
- [2026-10-16] Cyprus Shipping News, citing Sea-Intelligence, says carriers scheduled Asia–North Europe capacity 27% above last year across the Golden Week weeks, with congestion producing double sailings. It expects late blank sailings and rolled cargo in mid-to-late October. Bunched delayed ships and rolled cargo point to lumpy late-October arrivals, which is consistent with a large week 43 estimate. This is a Europe-lane data point and indirect for LA. https://cyprusshippingnews.com/2026/10/16/sogese-report-deliveries-are-still-being-delayed-as-container-freight-rates-fluctuate/
- [2026-10-02] Xeneta/eeSea data show Asia-to-US planned capacity for October of about 2.3M TEU, slightly above September's 2.28M. Blanked capacity rises to 314k TEU in October, from 129k in September. Only about 13% of October capacity was blanked at that point, versus nearly 18% in last year's Golden Week. Only 39% of transpacific services were affected, versus 56% last year. Supply into the US in October is therefore not shrinking. https://tbgfs.com/golden-week-blank-sailings-down-compared-to-recent-years/
- [2026-10-01] Drewry's Shanghai–LA rate was $7,835 per 40-ft and flat on the week. Rates stayed elevated through Golden Week, which suggests demand and space were still tight. https://www.exfreight.com/transpacific-rates-golden-week-booking/
- [2026-10-16] Congestion is tying up capacity. Industry estimates put about 3M TEU (8.5% of the global fleet) tied up before Golden Week, with an average late-vessel delay of 6.8 days. Typhoon-delayed vessels (Saudel, Dujuan) and the resulting backlog can push September-scheduled cargo into October arrivals. This supports Seroka's "typhoon" reason for upside. https://www.global-freight.co.uk/three-million-teu-caught-up-in-delays-ahead-of-golden-week/
- [2026-10-16] Long Beach's September empties were 396,040 TEU (+22.1%), with imports up 31.3%. LA's empties were a record. If carriers keep repositioning boxes to Asia, empties alone could run 330–370k in October, against 295,380 in October 2025. That lifts the total by 40–75k above a simple imports-plus-exports build. https://gcaptain.com/southern-california-ports-shatter-cargo-records-as-imports-surge/
- [2026-10-15] The US–China truce was extended for two months from September 23, holding tariffs at reduced levels. The extension runs to about late November, so there is no tariff-deadline cliff inside October, and importers have little reason to cut orders now. https://www.latintimes.com/tariff-truce-all-time-record-how-l-became-essential-gateway-chinese-goods-600218
- [2026-10-09] Seroka's September guide ("exceed 900,000") came in 16% too low, so the high path is to repeat that error. A build for October: imports about 500–540k, exports about 120–125k, empties about 330–370k, which sums to about 950k–1.035M. A total near or above 1.0M would require imports to hold near September's pace. The weekly data suggests imports are slowing from about 546k, but not by as much as the 900k guide implies. https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is about 950k–1.03M TEU. It rests on weekly manifest imports running 13–27% above year-ago, scheduled vessels holding at 21–24 a week, empties still elevated, and the diversion away from the Panama Canal. A total above 1.04M, a new record, would need late-October arrivals (the wk43 estimate) to come in at the high end and empties to stay near the September record.

NOT FOUND: The October 2026 value and a readable 2026 statistics table. A stable Port Optimizer total for weeks 42–43, since snapshots conflict. Any LA-specific third-party October forecast. I could not fetch the FreightWaves "extra week" article.

- [2026-10-17] Low-scenario anchor: Seroka's October guide of about 900,000 TEU was given at the Oct 9 briefing. He tied it to typhoon-delayed cargo, pre-Golden Week roll pools and holiday restocking. He also said Asian purchase orders are "solid" but Nov/Dec are hard to forecast. A result below 900k would need those backlogs to clear faster than he expects. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-01] C.H. Robinson (fetched) says the Golden Week blanks keep effective Transpacific capacity reduced through roughly mid-October. It says global port congestion absorbs about 12% of vessel capacity, a four-year high. It calls the first post-holiday sailings the key signal. Rollovers on them mean cargo is queued and arrives late. A quick clearance means the backlog has already been counted. For LA, a slow factory restart after Oct 7 would push arrivals from late October into November. https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/oct-2026-freight-market-update/ocean/
- [2026-08-27] MSC (fetched Loadstar) blanked its Week 40 Orient and Week 41 Pearl sailings. It cited an "anticipated slowdown in demand during and after" Golden Week. Freightos' Levine said NRF expected imports to decline in October. Both MSC services call at Long Beach, not LA, so the direct hit to LA is not shown. This is carrier-side evidence for a post-holiday air pocket. https://theloadstar.com/msc-blanks-transpac-sailings-as-golden-week-puts-brake-on-demand/
- [2026-09-27] Mid-September timing: Chinese factories front-loaded shipping into the window before the Sept 25–27 Mid-Autumn holiday and Oct 1–7 Golden Week. Transpacific transit is about 14–18 days. Pre-holiday departures therefore mostly landed in late September and early October, and the post-holiday cargo lands in mid-to-late October. That supports a soft late-October trough. It is my inference, not a published LA figure. https://panvaya.com/blog/golden-week-blank-sailings-double-holiday-2026
- [2026-10-17] Port Optimizer, a manifest-based import estimate, is mixed. One snapshot shows wk 41 at 134,324 TEU and wk 42 at 119,952 TEU. wk 43 shows 118,207 in one snapshot and 151,816 in an older cached one. The snapshots conflict, and the later weeks are forecasts subject to change. Weeks 41–43 total roughly 370k–405k imports. Add about 120k for the final week-40 days, plus exports and empties. September had 545,696 imports, so the implied October import total is well below that. Total TEU in the low 900ks is plausible. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-08] Downside from NRF: October imports are forecast at 2.25M TEU nationally, and November at 2.0M. NRF says the peak is wrapping up. The tracker is national and has been revised upward repeatedly, so it is not an LA-specific floor. https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026
- [2026-10-09] Seroka said September's volume was "the major retailers frontloading ahead of tariffs." Front-loading pulls demand forward, and inventory depletion would then show up as a weak Q4. Rogers (Oct 15 podcast, in the AskNews block) cited wholesale destocking. The mechanism is that early arrival of holiday goods leaves little to bring in during October. https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/
- [2026-10-09] The 371k empties in September were a record. Seroka called empties a "tealeaf" on future demand. Empties run about 35% of total TEU, so a normalization swing is a volatility source. In October 2025, empties were 295,380. If they fall back toward about 300–320k and imports ease to about 450–480k, a total near 900k or below is feasible. https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/
- [2026-09-24] Policy risk to the downside sits mostly in November, not October. The truce was extended to Jan 10, 2027. But 178 Section 301 exclusions and the pause on China-linked ship fees lapse Nov 9–10, with no extension announced. That could pull cargo into early November, and importers may hold back October orders. Any October effect is small because cargo is already at sea. https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/section-301-exclusions-expiration/
- [2026-10-17] Operational cap: Seroka flagged rail dwell as a watch item on Oct 9, and vessels turn in about four days. A bunched-vessel backlog at the berth would delay discharge into November. Terminal counts follow discharge. If some vessels' cargo is processed after Oct 31, October TEU would be lower. I found no reported LA congestion or labor disruption as of Oct 17. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/despite-record-port-la-chief-193000957.html
- [2026-10-17] A separate negative: Xeneta (cited by Source Alliance) reports announced October blank sailings of at least 13% of Far East–North America capacity. At the time of writing that was the live count. It supports fewer vessel calls, but carriers cover port coverage with inducement calls, so the volume effect is smaller than the headline percentage. https://sourcealliance.net/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices/

BOTTOM LINE: The evidence-backed low path is a post-Golden Week gap, a September that front-loaded holiday goods, and empties normalizing. That would put October at or slightly below Seroka's ~900k, perhaps in the 850–900k range. Calendar and capacity signals support it. Direct LA data (Port Optimizer weekly imports running 13–20% above last year) argue against going much below that.

NOT FOUND: Any October-to-date LA total TEU figure. Any LA-specific third-party forecast. A readable 2026 monthly table on the port's statistics page. Any reported disruption at the port (labor, congestion) for October. Evidence that post-Golden Week sailings were rolled, since the CHR page predates the holiday's end.

8 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 5 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-16] Long Beach Port Sets Record Volume Amidst Global Trade Shifts
FreightWaves — https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers
  - The Port of Long Beach set a new record in September 2026, moving 997,177 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs), marking its busiest month in 115 years and a 25% increase from September 2025.
  - This surpassed the previous monthly record of 987,191 TEUs set in October 2024.
  - Port CEO Noel Hacegaba attributed the surge to shippers adjusting to high diesel costs, Panama Canal restrictions, and the prospect of a new U.S.-China trade agreement.
  - The port handled 509,390 TEUs in loaded imports (up 31.3% year-over-year), 91,747 TEUs in exports (up 7.8%), and 396,040 TEUs in empty container moves (up 22.1%).
  - Through the first nine months of 2026, total volume reached 7,675,255 TEUs, a 3.9% increase from the same period in 2025.
  - Total Terminals International set a monthly rail record with 59,410 moves in September.
  - To accommodate a planned 16-month deck-replacement project on the Vincent Thomas Bridge starting November 7, the port will offer additional evening and Saturday gates from late October for six weeks, excluding Thanksgiving week.
  - The port expects to remain fully open during the project at the neighboring Port of Los Angeles.

[2026-10-16] Frank Holmes: Soaring Freight Rates Signal Shipyard Boom and Future Capacity Risks (analysis)
Proactive Investors — https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1100252/frank-talk-why-freight-rates-are-soaring-and-what-the-shipyard-boom-means-for-investors-1100252.html
  - Global shipping rates are surging due to threats to key maritime routes, longer voyages, and strong demand for goods, according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ:GROW).
  - The Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index stood at 7,444 last Tuesday, more than six times its level a year ago and the highest since 2010.
  - Bloomberg Intelligence reports the benchmark rate for VLCCs hit a record $907,635 a day on October 6 and could cross $1 million before the month ends.
  - A supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal at $1.16 million.
  - Inefficiency is driving the boom: the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain under threat, forcing vessels to detour around Africa or shuttle via smaller tankers.
  - C.H.
  - Robinson estimates roughly 12% of global container ship capacity is tied up by port congestion.
  - Demand is also strong; the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 last month, its highest since February 2022.
  - Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years apart from the post-Covid rebound, per DHL.
  - The Port of Los Angeles recorded its busiest three-month stretch in history, with import volume to Long Beach running roughly 50% above year-ago levels.

[2026-10-16] US Ports Set September Records Amid Panama Canal Restrictions
mundomaritimo.cl — http://www.mundomaritimo.cl/noticias/puertos-de-los-angeles-y-long-beach-restricciones-en-el-canal-de-panama-impulsan-volumenes-record
  - In September 2026, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the United States set historical records, collectively moving over 2 million TEUs.
  - The Port of Los Angeles, led by CEO Gene Seroka, moved 1,042,652 TEUs, surpassing its previous July 2025 record by over 20,000 TEUs.
  - This brought the port's first nine months of 2026 to approximately 8.1 million TEUs, a 3% increase over the same period in 2025.
  - Seroka attributed the surge to sustained consumer demand, inventory replenishment, and the diversion of cargo away from constrained routes like the Panama Canal.
  - Meanwhile, the Port of Long Beach, under CEO Noel Hacegaba, moved 997,177 TEUs, breaking its 115-year-old record set in October 2024.
  - Long Beach saw a 25% year-over-year growth, with full import containers rising 31.3% to 509,390 TEUs.
  - Hacegaba noted that shippers are utilizing the port to mitigate costs associated with high diesel prices and Panama Canal restrictions, while anticipating potential new trade agreements between the US and China.

[2026-10-15] Port of Los Angeles Sets All-Time Record in September 2026 Amid Rising Trade Tensions
Latin Times — https://www.latintimes.com/tariff-truce-all-time-record-how-l-became-essential-gateway-chinese-goods-600218
  - The Port of Los Angeles broke its all-time monthly cargo record in September 2026, processing 1,042,652 TEUs — the highest single-month total in its 118-year history, surpassing the previous mark from July 2025 by more than 20,000 units.
  - Despite six years of supply chain diversification, China still accounts for approximately 40% of the Port of Los Angeles cargo and roughly 60% of the Port of Long Beach's total trade.
  - Container freight rates from East Asia to the U.S. West Coast have surged approximately 344% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026.
  - A two-month U.S.-China trade truce extension announced on September 23 by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has kept tariffs at current reduced levels and suspended a federal investigation into maritime fees on Chinese-linked vessels.
  - Port Executive Director Gene Seroka stated that China represents 'approximately 40 percent of our business, more than two and a half times our next largest trading partner.' Vietnam has become the Port of Los Angeles' second-largest trading partner in 2026, with volume quadrupling over the past decade, though experts note that both Vietnam and Mexico remain heavily reliant on Chinese-sourced components.
  - The Port of Los Angeles approved a $3.4 billion annual budget for fiscal 2026-2027 — a 25% increase — to absorb continued growth, even as the port's own volume forecast assumes a 7% decline to 9.3 million TEUs should the current tariff environment tighten again.

[2026-10-15] Freightonomics: Record Port Activity, Tight Capacity, and Inventory Destocking in October 2026
FreightCasts — https://chtbl.com/track/894889/traffic.megaphone.fm/FREIGHT5301781625.mp3
  - On October 15, 2026, the Freightonomics podcast, hosted by Zach Strickland of FreightWaves, analyzed the complex state of the US freight market, featuring an interview with Dr. Zach Rogers regarding the latest Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) results.
  - The discussion highlighted that the Port of Los Angeles recorded a record-breaking month of TEU throughput in September 2026, with domestic container volumes reaching an all-time high, driven by import surges and a shift in shipping behavior.
  - Strickland reported that the Sonar Tender Rejection Index (STRI) has flatlined at approximately 14%, indicating tight trucking capacity despite demand-side conditions (STVI) showing only modest 6% to 8% year-over-year growth.
  - Dr. Rogers explained that smaller fleets (10 trucks or less) are not returning to the market due to high barriers to entry, including the spread between retail and wholesale diesel prices, which disadvantages small operators who cannot purchase fuel at wholesale rates.
  - Rogers noted that wholesale inventory-to-sales ratios have dropped from $1.30 in 2025 to $1.20 in 2026, signaling aggressive destocking, while upstream warehouse capacity utilization has hit its lowest point since March 2022 at 36.8%, creating a bottleneck ahead of the holiday season.
  - The conversation also addressed persistent inflation, with the PPI showing large numbers, and the impact of the ongoing conflict in Iran on diesel prices, which are keeping costs elevated and forcing shippers to accept higher costs as the 'new normal' rather than making long-term planning decisions.

[2026-10-15] Port of Long Beach Breaks 115-Year Record with Nearly 1 Million Containers
Patch — https://patch.com/california/longbeach-ca/port-long-beach-breaks-115-year-cargo-record-nearly-1-million-containers
  - During the October 2026 edition of the Supply Chain Insight program, Port of Long Beach CEO Noel Hacegaba announced that the port broke an 115-year cargo record with nearly 1 million containers.
  - Hacegaba stated that officials are preparing a financial incentive program to help marine terminal operators maintain cargo movements during the construction of the bridge connecting San Pedro and Terminal Island, a critical link serving the Port of Los Angeles.
  - Although details of the incentive program remain unestablished, its inclusion highlights the importance of freight efficiency during anticipated disruption.
  - Hacegaba also noted international shipping challenges, including drought-related restrictions at the Panama Canal causing longer waiting times and prompting some shipping companies to reconsider routes, with West Coast ports benefiting from redirected cargo.
  - Additionally, weather-related disruptions in Asia have delayed Pacific shipments, raising concerns about potential complications ahead of the seasonal increase associated with the Lunar New Year in February 2027.
  - Despite these challenges, Hacegaba expressed confidence that cargo traffic would remain strong through the end of 2026.
  - Regarding future growth, Hacegaba discussed rail infrastructure with Anne Reinke, president and CEO of the Intermodal Association of North America, focusing on improving container movement between ships, trains, and inland destinations as the port works toward its goal of handling 20 million TEUs annually by 2050.

[2026-10-13] Port of Los Angeles Hits Record Volumes Amidst Panama Canal Drought and Rising Fuel Costs
supplychaindive.com — https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/panama-canal-challenges-drive-shippers-to-port-of-los-angeles/832748/
  - The Port of Los Angeles reported record-breaking activity in September 2026, handling 1.04 million TEUs, its busiest month in 118 years, according to Port Director Gene Seroka.
  - Loaded imports reached 545,696 TEUs (up 19% year-over-year), while loaded exports rose 10% to 125,751 TEUs.
  - Empty containers hit a historic monthly high of 371,206 TEUs.
  - Shippers are diverting cargo from the Panama Canal due to El Niño-related drought concerns, with wait times having spiked in April and climbing from July due to draft cuts.
  - MarineTraffic data indicates wait times have improved, but concerns persist as El Niño is expected to peak between October and December 2026, followed by the 2027 dry season.
  - Additionally, rising fuel costs, which Seroka noted have doubled over the last eight months due to the Iran war, are pushing shippers toward shorter routes.
  - Experts anticipate these volumes will remain elevated due to the confluence of these events.

[2026-10-09] Port of Los Angeles Hits Historic Peak in September 2026 with Record Cargo Volume
Press Telegram — https://www.presstelegram.com/2026/10/09/l-a-port-hits-historic-peak-in-september-as-cargo-surge-continues/
  - The Port of Los Angeles set a historic record in September 2026, handling 1,042,652 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs), surpassing the previous monthly record of 1,022,652 TEUs set in July 2025 by more than 20,000 units, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka.
  - This surge capped the busiest quarter in the port's 118-year history, with nearly 3 million TEUs moved between July and September, and a four-month stretch (June to September) totaling nearly 4 million TEUs.
  - The port processed a record 546,000 loaded imports, up 19% from September 2025, while loaded exports reached 125,751 TEUs (up 10%), and empty containers totaled a historic high of 371,206 TEUs.
  - Seroka attributed the growth to resilient consumer demand, inventory replenishment, lower tariff windows, and cargo diversions from global routes facing security risks, such as the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
  - Harvard Business School professor Willy Shih noted that companies are shifting from cost-optimization to flexibility in sourcing and manufacturing due to trade policy uncertainty.
  - Vietnam has emerged as the port's second-largest trade partner after China.
  - Looking ahead, Seroka expects October to see 900,000-1,000,000 TEUs, with momentum continuing into the end of 2026.
  - During the first nine months of 2026, the port handled nearly 8.1 million TEUs, a 3% increase over the same period in 2025.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: October 2026 hasn't ended, so the port has not published a figure for it yet. The latest month reported is September 2026, when the port handled a record 1,042,652 TEUs (545,696 loaded imports, 125,751 loaded exports and about 371,206 empties). Year-to-date volume through September was nearly 8.1 million TEUs, more than 3% above the same period of 2025.
  Last updated: 2026-10-09 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The figure comes from the port's own news release, not from the 'Total TEUs' column on the named statistics page, whose table could not be read. The port usually releases a month's figures in the middle of the following month, so October 2026 should appear around mid-November 2026. Context: June–September 2026 set records (nearly 3 million TEUs in Q3, nearly 4 million over June–September), helped by lower tariffs and front-loading. The port's June 2026 budget forecast of 9.3 million TEUs for fiscal 2026-27 implies lower volumes ahead. One outlet (IndexBox) gave September as 1.42 million TEUs, which looks like an error; the official figure is 1,042,652.
  Fetched: fetch: https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026 (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025 (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/port-of-los-angeles-forecasts-7-container-volume-decline (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026 (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
I ran three searches. Here are the findings for each.

## 1. Port Optimizer: October 2026 import forecast (TEU)

**Port Optimizer Control Tower (Signal).** The page's own text says its data comes from ocean carrier manifest records and is subject to change. One snapshot shows these weekly import volumes:
- 
Oct 11–17 (wk 41): 134,324 TEU, with 22 scheduled vessels.

- 
Oct 18–24 (wk 42): 119,952 TEU, with 22 scheduled vessels.

- 
Oct 25–31 (wk 43): 118,207 TEU.

- 
Total planned vessels were 135 and total planned containers were 309,236.

- Source: https://signal.portoptimizer.com/

**Port Optimizer volumes page.** A second snapshot has different numbers:
- 
Wk 41: 132,935 TEU, wk 42: 117,710 TEU, and wk 43: 151,816 TEU, with 126 total planned vessels and 298,343 planned containers.

- Source: https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/

**Caveats:**
- The two snapshots disagree, most of all for week 43 (118,207 vs. 151,816 TEU). That is expected for a live feed, but you should check the live dashboard for current figures.
- Both pages carry a "520 days ago" age tag in the search metadata, so I couldn't confirm when each snapshot was taken. The dates in the text are October 2026.
- I found no published month-total Port Optimizer forecast for October. Adding the first snapshot's three weeks gives roughly 372,000 loaded import TEU. That is my own sum, and it leaves out the first ten days of October.

**Related October outlook for the whole U.S. (NRF Global Port Tracker):**
- 
National imports are projected to ease from an estimated 2.28 million TEUs in September to 2.25 million in October and 2 million in November.

- The October 8 report was covered at https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026.
- Another report said 
NRF raised its October forecast 6.6 percent from the previous month's projection
 (https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-la-container-volumes-trade-tariffs-trump-roller-coaster-2025-1238862215/).

## 2. Gene Seroka: October 2026 container volume projection

- **Projection:** Seroka expects about 900,000 TEUs in October. This came out of the October 9, 2026 media briefing. 
He added that most holiday merchandise should be in the country by November.

- **Year-over-year:** 
900,000 TEUs would be at least a 6.1 percent increase over last year's 848,424 TEUs.
 (https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-los-angeles-long-beach-cargo-panama-suez-canal-vietnam-1239346167/)
- **Drivers:** 
He cited typhoon-related schedule disruptions in Asia, cargo "roll pools" before China's national holiday, and continued holiday-season replenishment.
 (https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk)
- **Panama Canal diversion:** In August, Seroka projected that Panama Canal congestion and Middle East uncertainty could divert an extra 5% of volume to Los Angeles. 
This month he said it's "probably going to be a little bit more th

### claude_news (SUCCESS)
Claude web search findings:
- **NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker (Oct 8, 2026 release):** 
October is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 8.5% year over year.
 The forecast covers national imports across the tracked ports, not POLA alone. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up
- **Forecast revisions:** 
That is up 6.6% from the 2.11 million TEU forecast for October in September's report.
 Earlier vintages for October were:
  - 2.13M in the August report (https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-early-peak-season-is-winding-down).
  - 1.99M in the July report (https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-expected-to-set-new-record-ahead-of-potential-august-tariffs).
  - https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/nrf-peak-shipping-season-global-port-tracker-descartes-imports-cargo-1239335219/
- **POLA's own October guidance:** 
Seroka said the port will process about 900,000 TEUs in October, and most holiday merchandise should be in the country by November.
 https://www.933thedrive.com/2026/10/09/port-of-los-angeles-sets-september-volume-record-executive-director-says/
- **Reasons Seroka gave:** 
He cited typhoon-related schedule disruptions in Asia, cargo "roll pools" before China's national holiday, and continued holiday-season replenishment.
 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- **Seroka on November and December:** 
He said these months are harder to predict, because shippers respond quickly to global situations and importers have already built inventories.
 https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus
- **October 2025 POLA baseline:** 
POLA processed 848,431 TEUs in October 2025.
 The port's statistics page lists 
848,424.25 TEU, -6.25% year over year
. Two sources put the October 2025 loaded imports figure at about 429,283 TEU. A ~900,000 TEU October 2026 would be about 6% above October 2025. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo and https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025
- **September 2026 context:** 
POLA handled 1,042,652 TEU in September 2026, the busiest month in its history.
 
Loaded imports were 545,696 TEU, up 19% year on year.
 The September 2025 comparison was 883,053 TEU (https://portoflosangeles.org/news/latest-news). https://container-mag.com/update/port-of-los-angeles-handles-record-1-04-million-teu-in-septe-mv1a88sx
- **Source discrepancy:** FreightWaves and IndexBox report September as 1.42 million TEU. That conflicts with the port's official 1,042,652 figure, so treat 1.42M as a likely typo or error.
- **Year-to-date:** 
POLA handled nearly 8.1 million TEU from January to September 2026, more than 3% ahead of the same period in 2025.
 https://container-mag.com/update/port-of-los-angeles-handles-record-1-04-million-teu-in-septe-mv1a88sx
- **Forecasting note:** Seroka's ~900K is an approximate guide. The September-to-October step-down it implies is about 14%, from 1.04M to 0.9M. NRF's national October forecast is only about 1% below September's 2.28M. That gap suggests upside risk to 900K if the peak-season strength persists. This is my inference, not a sourced statement.
Sources cited:
  - Import Cargo’s Extended Peak Season Wrapping Up (https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up)
  - NRF Raises October Import Forecast as Peak Shipping Season Lingers (https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/nrf-peak-shipping-season-global-port-tracker-descartes-imports-cargo-1239335219/)
  - Port of Los Angeles sets September volume record, executive director says (https://www.933thedrive.com/2026/10/09/port-of-los-angeles-sets-september-volume-record-executive-director-says/)
  - Despite new record, Port of LA chief warns of tariff-driven planning risk - FreightWaves (https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk)
  - Port of Los Angeles Has Best Month Ever, Capping Four-Month Surge in TEUs (https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus)
  - Solid October Volume at Port of Los Angeles Puts 10 Million Container Unit-Mark Within Reach for 2025 (https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo)
  - 2025 Port of Los Angeles Container Statistics (https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025)
  - Port of Los Angeles handles record 1.04 million teu in September (https://container-mag.com/update/port-of-los-angeles-handles-record-1-04-million-teu-in-septe-mv1a88sx)

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
What will be the Port of Los Angeles's total container volume during October 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
FreightWaves: [Port of Los Angeles forecasts 7% container volume decline](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/port-of-los-angeles-forecasts-7-container-volume-decline)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "73c6162dd023e260", "sheet_id": "40"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the reported Port of Los Angeles total container volume during October 2026.

## Fine Print
The primary source for this question will be the [Port of Los Angeles website](https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026), specifically the "Total TEUs" column for October 2026.

## Range
The question's displayed range is [700000, 1000000] (units: TEUs).
The LOWER bound is OPEN: outcomes below 700000 are possible and resolve as "below range".
The UPPER bound is OPEN: outcomes above 1000000 are possible and resolve as "above range".
Where a bound is open, your percentiles MAY lie outside the displayed range — the range is where the question author expects most of the mass, not a constraint on the answer. Do not compress your distribution to fit inside it.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: October 2026 hasn't ended, so the port has not published a figure for it yet. The latest month reported is September 2026, when the port handled a record 1,042,652 TEUs (545,696 loaded imports, 125,751 loaded exports and about 371,206 empties). Year-to-date volume through September was nearly 8.1 million TEUs, more than 3% above the same period of 2025.
  Last updated: 2026-10-09 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The figure comes from the port's own news release, not from the 'Total TEUs' column on the named statistics page, whose table could not be read. The port usually releases a month's figures in the middle of the following month, so October 2026 should appear around mid-November 2026. Context: June–September 2026 set records (nearly 3 million TEUs in Q3, nearly 4 million over June–September), helped by lower tariffs and front-loading. The port's June 2026 budget forecast of 9.3 million TEUs for fiscal 2026-27 implies lower volumes ahead. One outlet (IndexBox) gave September as 1.42 million TEUs, which looks like an error; the official figure is 1,042,652.
  Fetched: fetch: https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026 (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025 (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/port-of-los-angeles-forecasts-7-container-volume-decline (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026 (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
I ran three searches. Here are the findings for each.

## 1. Port Optimizer: October 2026 import forecast (TEU)

**Port Optimizer Control Tower (Signal).** The page's own text says its data comes from ocean carrier manifest records and is subject to change. One snapshot shows these weekly import volumes:
- 
Oct 11–17 (wk 41): 134,324 TEU, with 22 scheduled vessels.

- 
Oct 18–24 (wk 42): 119,952 TEU, with 22 scheduled vessels.

- 
Oct 25–31 (wk 43): 118,207 TEU.

- 
Total planned vessels were 135 and total planned containers were 309,236.

- Source: https://signal.portoptimizer.com/

**Port Optimizer volumes page.** A second snapshot has different numbers:
- 
Wk 41: 132,935 TEU, wk 42: 117,710 TEU, and wk 43: 151,816 TEU, with 126 total planned vessels and 298,343 planned containers.

- Source: https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/

**Caveats:**
- The two snapshots disagree, most of all for week 43 (118,207 vs. 151,816 TEU). That is expected for a live feed, but you should check the live dashboard for current figures.
- Both pages carry a "520 days ago" age tag in the search metadata, so I couldn't confirm when each snapshot was taken. The dates in the text are October 2026.
- I found no published month-total Port Optimizer forecast for October. Adding the first snapshot's three weeks gives roughly 372,000 loaded import TEU. That is my own sum, and it leaves out the first ten days of October.

**Related October outlook for the whole U.S. (NRF Global Port Tracker):**
- 
National imports are projected to ease from an estimated 2.28 million TEUs in September to 2.25 million in October and 2 million in November.

- The October 8 report was covered at https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026.
- Another report said 
NRF raised its October forecast 6.6 percent from the previous month's projection
 (https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-la-container-volumes-trade-tariffs-trump-roller-coaster-2025-1238862215/).

## 2. Gene Seroka: October 2026 container volume projection

- **Projection:** Seroka expects about 900,000 TEUs in October. This came out of the October 9, 2026 media briefing. 
He added that most holiday merchandise should be in the country by November.

- **Year-over-year:** 
900,000 TEUs would be at least a 6.1 percent increase over last year's 848,424 TEUs.
 (https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-los-angeles-long-beach-cargo-panama-suez-canal-vietnam-1239346167/)
- **Drivers:** 
He cited typhoon-related schedule disruptions in Asia, cargo "roll pools" before China's national holiday, and continued holiday-season replenishment.
 (https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk)
- **Panama Canal diversion:** In August, Seroka projected that Panama Canal congestion and Middle East uncertainty could divert an extra 5% of volume to Los Angeles. 
This month he said it's "probably going to be a little bit more th

### claude_news (SUCCESS)
Claude web search findings:
- **NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker (Oct 8, 2026 release):** 
October is forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 8.5% year over year.
 The forecast covers national imports across the tracked ports, not POLA alone. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up
- **Forecast revisions:** 
That is up 6.6% from the 2.11 million TEU forecast for October in September's report.
 Earlier vintages for October were:
  - 2.13M in the August report (https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-early-peak-season-is-winding-down).
  - 1.99M in the July report (https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-expected-to-set-new-record-ahead-of-potential-august-tariffs).
  - https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/nrf-peak-shipping-season-global-port-tracker-descartes-imports-cargo-1239335219/
- **POLA's own October guidance:** 
Seroka said the port will process about 900,000 TEUs in October, and most holiday merchandise should be in the country by November.
 https://www.933thedrive.com/2026/10/09/port-of-los-angeles-sets-september-volume-record-executive-director-says/
- **Reasons Seroka gave:** 
He cited typhoon-related schedule disruptions in Asia, cargo "roll pools" before China's national holiday, and continued holiday-season replenishment.
 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- **Seroka on November and December:** 
He said these months are harder to predict, because shippers respond quickly to global situations and importers have already built inventories.
 https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus
- **October 2025 POLA baseline:** 
POLA processed 848,431 TEUs in October 2025.
 The port's statistics page lists 
848,424.25 TEU, -6.25% year over year
. Two sources put the October 2025 loaded imports figure at about 429,283 TEU. A ~900,000 TEU October 2026 would be about 6% above October 2025. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo and https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025
- **September 2026 context:** 
POLA handled 1,042,652 TEU in September 2026, the busiest month in its history.
 
Loaded imports were 545,696 TEU, up 19% year on year.
 The September 2025 comparison was 883,053 TEU (https://portoflosangeles.org/news/latest-news). https://container-mag.com/update/port-of-los-angeles-handles-record-1-04-million-teu-in-septe-mv1a88sx
- **Source discrepancy:** FreightWaves and IndexBox report September as 1.42 million TEU. That conflicts with the port's official 1,042,652 figure, so treat 1.42M as a likely typo or error.
- **Year-to-date:** 
POLA handled nearly 8.1 million TEU from January to September 2026, more than 3% ahead of the same period in 2025.
 https://container-mag.com/update/port-of-los-angeles-handles-record-1-04-million-teu-in-septe-mv1a88sx
- **Forecasting note:** Seroka's ~900K is an approximate guide. The September-to-October step-down it implies is about 14%, from 1.04M to 0.9M. NRF's national October forecast is only about 1% below September's 2.28M. That gap suggests upside risk to 900K if the peak-season strength persists. This is my inference, not a sourced statement.
Sources cited:
  - Import Cargo’s Extended Peak Season Wrapping Up (https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up)
  - NRF Raises October Import Forecast as Peak Shipping Season Lingers (https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/nrf-peak-shipping-season-global-port-tracker-descartes-imports-cargo-1239335219/)
  - Port of Los Angeles sets September volume record, executive director says (https://www.933thedrive.com/2026/10/09/port-of-los-angeles-sets-september-volume-record-executive-director-says/)
  - Despite new record, Port of LA chief warns of tariff-driven planning risk - FreightWaves (https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk)
  - Port of Los Angeles Has Best Month Ever, Capping Four-Month Surge in TEUs (https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus)
  - Solid October Volume at Port of Los Angeles Puts 10 Million Container Unit-Mark Within Reach for 2025 (https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo)
  - 2025 Port of Los Angeles Container Statistics (https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025)
  - Port of Los Angeles handles record 1.04 million teu in September (https://container-mag.com/update/port-of-los-angeles-handles-record-1-04-million-teu-in-septe-mv1a88sx)

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-17; forecasting closes 2026-10-17; resolves 2026-11-18. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
8 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 5 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-16] Long Beach Port Sets Record Volume Amidst Global Trade Shifts
FreightWaves — https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers
  - The Port of Long Beach set a new record in September 2026, moving 997,177 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs), marking its busiest month in 115 years and a 25% increase from September 2025.
  - This surpassed the previous monthly record of 987,191 TEUs set in October 2024.
  - Port CEO Noel Hacegaba attributed the surge to shippers adjusting to high diesel costs, Panama Canal restrictions, and the prospect of a new U.S.-China trade agreement.
  - The port handled 509,390 TEUs in loaded imports (up 31.3% year-over-year), 91,747 TEUs in exports (up 7.8%), and 396,040 TEUs in empty container moves (up 22.1%).
  - Through the first nine months of 2026, total volume reached 7,675,255 TEUs, a 3.9% increase from the same period in 2025.
  - Total Terminals International set a monthly rail record with 59,410 moves in September.
  - To accommodate a planned 16-month deck-replacement project on the Vincent Thomas Bridge starting November 7, the port will offer additional evening and Saturday gates from late October for six weeks, excluding Thanksgiving week.
  - The port expects to remain fully open during the project at the neighboring Port of Los Angeles.

[2026-10-16] Frank Holmes: Soaring Freight Rates Signal Shipyard Boom and Future Capacity Risks (analysis)
Proactive Investors — https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1100252/frank-talk-why-freight-rates-are-soaring-and-what-the-shipyard-boom-means-for-investors-1100252.html
  - Global shipping rates are surging due to threats to key maritime routes, longer voyages, and strong demand for goods, according to Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors (NASDAQ:GROW).
  - The Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index stood at 7,444 last Tuesday, more than six times its level a year ago and the highest since 2010.
  - Bloomberg Intelligence reports the benchmark rate for VLCCs hit a record $907,635 a day on October 6 and could cross $1 million before the month ends.
  - A supertanker loading crude in the Gulf of Oman was fixed at $1.01 million a day for a voyage to Asia, with another deal at $1.16 million.
  - Inefficiency is driving the boom: the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain under threat, forcing vessels to detour around Africa or shuttle via smaller tankers.
  - C.H.
  - Robinson estimates roughly 12% of global container ship capacity is tied up by port congestion.
  - Demand is also strong; the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 last month, its highest since February 2022.
  - Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years apart from the post-Covid rebound, per DHL.
  - The Port of Los Angeles recorded its busiest three-month stretch in history, with import volume to Long Beach running roughly 50% above year-ago levels.

[2026-10-16] US Ports Set September Records Amid Panama Canal Restrictions
mundomaritimo.cl — http://www.mundomaritimo.cl/noticias/puertos-de-los-angeles-y-long-beach-restricciones-en-el-canal-de-panama-impulsan-volumenes-record
  - In September 2026, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the United States set historical records, collectively moving over 2 million TEUs.
  - The Port of Los Angeles, led by CEO Gene Seroka, moved 1,042,652 TEUs, surpassing its previous July 2025 record by over 20,000 TEUs.
  - This brought the port's first nine months of 2026 to approximately 8.1 million TEUs, a 3% increase over the same period in 2025.
  - Seroka attributed the surge to sustained consumer demand, inventory replenishment, and the diversion of cargo away from constrained routes like the Panama Canal.
  - Meanwhile, the Port of Long Beach, under CEO Noel Hacegaba, moved 997,177 TEUs, breaking its 115-year-old record set in October 2024.
  - Long Beach saw a 25% year-over-year growth, with full import containers rising 31.3% to 509,390 TEUs.
  - Hacegaba noted that shippers are utilizing the port to mitigate costs associated with high diesel prices and Panama Canal restrictions, while anticipating potential new trade agreements between the US and China.

[2026-10-15] Port of Los Angeles Sets All-Time Record in September 2026 Amid Rising Trade Tensions
Latin Times — https://www.latintimes.com/tariff-truce-all-time-record-how-l-became-essential-gateway-chinese-goods-600218
  - The Port of Los Angeles broke its all-time monthly cargo record in September 2026, processing 1,042,652 TEUs — the highest single-month total in its 118-year history, surpassing the previous mark from July 2025 by more than 20,000 units.
  - Despite six years of supply chain diversification, China still accounts for approximately 40% of the Port of Los Angeles cargo and roughly 60% of the Port of Long Beach's total trade.
  - Container freight rates from East Asia to the U.S. West Coast have surged approximately 344% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026.
  - A two-month U.S.-China trade truce extension announced on September 23 by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has kept tariffs at current reduced levels and suspended a federal investigation into maritime fees on Chinese-linked vessels.
  - Port Executive Director Gene Seroka stated that China represents 'approximately 40 percent of our business, more than two and a half times our next largest trading partner.' Vietnam has become the Port of Los Angeles' second-largest trading partner in 2026, with volume quadrupling over the past decade, though experts note that both Vietnam and Mexico remain heavily reliant on Chinese-sourced components.
  - The Port of Los Angeles approved a $3.4 billion annual budget for fiscal 2026-2027 — a 25% increase — to absorb continued growth, even as the port's own volume forecast assumes a 7% decline to 9.3 million TEUs should the current tariff environment tighten again.

[2026-10-15] Freightonomics: Record Port Activity, Tight Capacity, and Inventory Destocking in October 2026
FreightCasts — https://chtbl.com/track/894889/traffic.megaphone.fm/FREIGHT5301781625.mp3
  - On October 15, 2026, the Freightonomics podcast, hosted by Zach Strickland of FreightWaves, analyzed the complex state of the US freight market, featuring an interview with Dr. Zach Rogers regarding the latest Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) results.
  - The discussion highlighted that the Port of Los Angeles recorded a record-breaking month of TEU throughput in September 2026, with domestic container volumes reaching an all-time high, driven by import surges and a shift in shipping behavior.
  - Strickland reported that the Sonar Tender Rejection Index (STRI) has flatlined at approximately 14%, indicating tight trucking capacity despite demand-side conditions (STVI) showing only modest 6% to 8% year-over-year growth.
  - Dr. Rogers explained that smaller fleets (10 trucks or less) are not returning to the market due to high barriers to entry, including the spread between retail and wholesale diesel prices, which disadvantages small operators who cannot purchase fuel at wholesale rates.
  - Rogers noted that wholesale inventory-to-sales ratios have dropped from $1.30 in 2025 to $1.20 in 2026, signaling aggressive destocking, while upstream warehouse capacity utilization has hit its lowest point since March 2022 at 36.8%, creating a bottleneck ahead of the holiday season.
  - The conversation also addressed persistent inflation, with the PPI showing large numbers, and the impact of the ongoing conflict in Iran on diesel prices, which are keeping costs elevated and forcing shippers to accept higher costs as the 'new normal' rather than making long-term planning decisions.

[2026-10-15] Port of Long Beach Breaks 115-Year Record with Nearly 1 Million Containers
Patch — https://patch.com/california/longbeach-ca/port-long-beach-breaks-115-year-cargo-record-nearly-1-million-containers
  - During the October 2026 edition of the Supply Chain Insight program, Port of Long Beach CEO Noel Hacegaba announced that the port broke an 115-year cargo record with nearly 1 million containers.
  - Hacegaba stated that officials are preparing a financial incentive program to help marine terminal operators maintain cargo movements during the construction of the bridge connecting San Pedro and Terminal Island, a critical link serving the Port of Los Angeles.
  - Although details of the incentive program remain unestablished, its inclusion highlights the importance of freight efficiency during anticipated disruption.
  - Hacegaba also noted international shipping challenges, including drought-related restrictions at the Panama Canal causing longer waiting times and prompting some shipping companies to reconsider routes, with West Coast ports benefiting from redirected cargo.
  - Additionally, weather-related disruptions in Asia have delayed Pacific shipments, raising concerns about potential complications ahead of the seasonal increase associated with the Lunar New Year in February 2027.
  - Despite these challenges, Hacegaba expressed confidence that cargo traffic would remain strong through the end of 2026.
  - Regarding future growth, Hacegaba discussed rail infrastructure with Anne Reinke, president and CEO of the Intermodal Association of North America, focusing on improving container movement between ships, trains, and inland destinations as the port works toward its goal of handling 20 million TEUs annually by 2050.

[2026-10-13] Port of Los Angeles Hits Record Volumes Amidst Panama Canal Drought and Rising Fuel Costs
supplychaindive.com — https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/panama-canal-challenges-drive-shippers-to-port-of-los-angeles/832748/
  - The Port of Los Angeles reported record-breaking activity in September 2026, handling 1.04 million TEUs, its busiest month in 118 years, according to Port Director Gene Seroka.
  - Loaded imports reached 545,696 TEUs (up 19% year-over-year), while loaded exports rose 10% to 125,751 TEUs.
  - Empty containers hit a historic monthly high of 371,206 TEUs.
  - Shippers are diverting cargo from the Panama Canal due to El Niño-related drought concerns, with wait times having spiked in April and climbing from July due to draft cuts.
  - MarineTraffic data indicates wait times have improved, but concerns persist as El Niño is expected to peak between October and December 2026, followed by the 2027 dry season.
  - Additionally, rising fuel costs, which Seroka noted have doubled over the last eight months due to the Iran war, are pushing shippers toward shorter routes.
  - Experts anticipate these volumes will remain elevated due to the confluence of these events.

[2026-10-09] Port of Los Angeles Hits Historic Peak in September 2026 with Record Cargo Volume
Press Telegram — https://www.presstelegram.com/2026/10/09/l-a-port-hits-historic-peak-in-september-as-cargo-surge-continues/
  - The Port of Los Angeles set a historic record in September 2026, handling 1,042,652 twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs), surpassing the previous monthly record of 1,022,652 TEUs set in July 2025 by more than 20,000 units, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka.
  - This surge capped the busiest quarter in the port's 118-year history, with nearly 3 million TEUs moved between July and September, and a four-month stretch (June to September) totaling nearly 4 million TEUs.
  - The port processed a record 546,000 loaded imports, up 19% from September 2025, while loaded exports reached 125,751 TEUs (up 10%), and empty containers totaled a historic high of 371,206 TEUs.
  - Seroka attributed the growth to resilient consumer demand, inventory replenishment, lower tariff windows, and cargo diversions from global routes facing security risks, such as the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
  - Harvard Business School professor Willy Shih noted that companies are shifting from cost-optimization to flexibility in sourcing and manufacturing due to trade policy uncertainty.
  - Vietnam has emerged as the port's second-largest trade partner after China.
  - Looking ahead, Seroka expects October to see 900,000-1,000,000 TEUs, with momentum continuing into the end of 2026.
  - During the first nine months of 2026, the port handled nearly 8.1 million TEUs, a 3% increase over the same period in 2025.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-09] The Port of LA's September 2026 total was 1,042,652 TEUs, an all-time monthly record. It beat the July 2025 record by more than 20,000 TEUs. The port's own release is the primary source. 
The release says September was the busiest month in its 118-year history.
 https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo
- [2026-10-13] September breakdown: 
loaded imports of about 545,696 TEUs (+19% year over year), loaded exports of 125,751 (+10%), and empties of about 371,206, also a record.
 Year to date through September was 
nearly 8.1 million TEUs, more than 3% ahead of the same period last year.
 https://gcaptain.com/port-of-los-angeles-sets-all-time-cargo-record-as-imports-surge/
- [2025-11-18] The year-ago value is October 2025: 
848,424.25 TEUs, -6.25% year over year, on the port's 2025 statistics table.
 The news release rounded this to 
848,431 TEUs.
 October 2025 was 
down 3.9% from September 2025's 883,053.
 https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2025
- [2026-10-09] Seroka's October guidance is about 900,000 TEUs. 
He said most holiday merchandise should be in the country by November.
 That would be roughly 6% above October 2025 and roughly 14% below September 2026. 
He cited typhoon-related schedule disruptions in Asia, cargo "roll pools" before China's national holiday, and continued holiday replenishment as reasons volumes should stay elevated.
 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-09] Maritime Executive reports the same guidance. 
The port expects about 900,000 TEUs in October. November and December are harder to predict because importers have already built inventories.
 https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus
- [2026 summer] Trajectory: May was 
840,165 TEUs, up 17% year over year.
 
The port passed 1 million TEUs in June, then had another strong July, and kept momentum through August and September.
 
July through September was nearly 3 million TEUs, the busiest quarter on record. June through September was nearly 4 million.
 https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/imports-flow-into-port-of-los-angeles-with-window-of-stability-open/823187/
- [2026-10-08] The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker expects a national slowdown. 
US imports are projected to ease from an estimated 2.28M TEUs in September to 2.25M in October and 2M in November.
 
September was forecast at +8.2% year over year, and October at +8.5%.
 https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026
- [2026-10-17, snippet only] The Port Optimizer Signal shows these weekly import volumes. Week 41 (Oct 11–17) is 132,935–134,324 TEU, up about 19–20% year over year. Week 42 (Oct 18–24) is about 117,710–119,952 TEU, up about 13–15%. Week 43 (Oct 25–31) is about 118,207 TEU. These are manifest-based loaded-import estimates, not total TEUs, and they are subject to change. The search-result metadata dated these pages oddly, so treat the figures as unconfirmed. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-15] Neighbouring Port of Long Beach had a record September of 997,177 TEUs, up 25% year over year. 
(The same FreightWaves item is in the prior retrieval.)
 The Vincent Thomas Bridge deck project starts November 7, after October, so it should not affect October volume. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers
- [Release timing] Past cargo releases came out mid-month: October 2025 data on 2025-11-18, November 2025 data on 2025-12-16, and September 2026 data on 2026-10-09. October 2026 data is therefore likely to come between about Nov 10 and Nov 18. That is close to the 2026-11-18 resolution date, so the number could post right at the deadline. https://portoflosangeles.org/news/latest-news
- [Caveat] The 2026 statistics page loaded, but its monthly table did not appear in the fetched or rendered text. The September and October 2025 figures above come from the 2025 table, the news release and press coverage. Treat the September 2026 figure as confirmed by the port's release, not the table.

BOTTOM LINE: The latest confirmed value is 1,042,652 TEUs for September 2026, and the year-ago October 2025 value is 848,424. The port's own October guidance of about 900,000 TEUs (+6% year over year, -14% month over month) is the anchor. Weekly import signals running 13–20% above last year's levels point to upside risk versus that guidance.

NOT FOUND: The October 2026 value, which is not yet published. The 2026 statistics table text with the monthly "Total TEUs" column. A confirmed official release date for the October 2026 data.

### BASE RATE
- **[2026-10-09]** September 2026 total was 1,042,652 TEUs, an all-time record. The port's own release is the starting point for the Sep→Oct change below. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo
- **[2026-10-09/13]** Seroka guided October 2026 to "about"/"in the range of" 900,000 TEUs. That is roughly –13.7% from September. He cited typhoon-delayed cargo, pre-China-holiday roll pools and holiday replenishment. He called Nov/Dec "harder to predict". https://maritime-executive.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-has-best-month-ever-capping-four-month-surge-in-teus ; https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- **[2025-11-18]** October 2025 was 848,431 TEUs on the port's release. The release and the stats page differ by a few units (848,424 is quoted elsewhere). Components: loaded imports 429,283, exports 123,768, empties 295,380. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo
- **[2025-10-15 / 2025-11-18]** Same window in 2025: September 883,053 → October 848,424, a –3.9% sequential move. Year over year, October was –6.3% against 905,025 in October 2024. https://www.cbinsights.com/investor/port-of-oakland (secondary source; the Sept 2025 figure is also on https://portoflosangeles.org/news/latest-news)
- **[2024-10]** October 2024 was 905,025 TEUs (from the secondary source above). The Sept 2024 figure is not directly retrieved. Back-solving from "eased 7.5%" gives about 954,000, so the Sep→Oct 2024 move was about –5%. That is my derivation, not a published number.
- **[2023-10-23 / 2023-11-17]** Same window in 2023: September 748,440 → October 725,775 TEUs, a –3.0% sequential move. October was +7% year over year. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2023-news-releases/news_111723_oct_cargo ; https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2023-news-releases/news_102323_sept_cargo
- **[2023-10-23]** Seroka's forecast accuracy in 2023: he said "October looks flat versus last year". The actual result was +7%, a miss of about 7 points on the upside. https://www.ajot.com/insights/full/port-of-las-seroka-reports-5-volume-increase-in-september
- **[2026-10-09 / 2026-10-13]** The three-year Sep→Oct change was –3% to –5%. The implied 2026 guide of about –14% is much steeper, which suggests it is conservative or that front-loading is expected to reverse. Seroka's forecast of 900,000 would still be +6.1% year over year over 848,424. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-los-angeles-long-beach-cargo-panama-suez-canal-vietnam-1239346167/
- **[2026-10]** NRF Global Port Tracker (cited by gCaptain): October US imports are forecast at 2.25M TEUs, easing from September, with +8.5% year over year. https://gcaptain.com/port-of-los-angeles-sets-all-time-cargo-record-as-imports-surge/
- **[2026-10-12]** September 2026 components: loaded imports 545,696 (+19% year over year), exports 125,751 (+10%), and a record 371,206 empties. The high empties share is a volatility source. Year to date through September was nearly 8.1M, up more than 3%. https://container-news.com/port-of-los-angeles-sets-monthly-cargo-record/
- **[2026-10-17]** The 2026 stats page (the resolution source) fetched with no readable monthly table. The October 2026 figure is not yet published. Port releases came on Nov 17/18 in 2023 and 2025, which is just inside the Nov 18 resolution date. https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026

BOTTOM LINE: In the past three years, LA's October fell 3–5% from September and finished between 725,775 and 905,025 TEUs. In 2023, a "flat" forecast from Seroka missed by about +7 points on the upside. The 900,000 guide implies a –14% fall from September, far steeper than the usual seasonal drop. A repeat of the typical –3% to –5% seasonal drop from 1,042,652 would give roughly 990,000–1,010,000, so the guide looks conservative.

NOT FOUND: The monthly table values from the port's 2024–2026 statistics pages (the pages rendered without data). The exact Sept 2024 figure. October 2022 and earlier. Any official October 2026 interim count. Any published forecast record beyond the 2023 example.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-17] **Weekly manifest imports point to an October total near the ~900k guide, not well above it.** The Port Optimizer Signal (rendered) shows weekly loaded imports for 2026 against 2025.
  - Weeks 35–39 (late Aug to Sep) ran 111.8k, 116.0k, 94.0k, 123.0k and 141.0k.
  - Week 40 (Sep 28–Oct 4) was 104.8k, against 73.5k a year earlier.
  - Week 41 (Oct 11–17) was 132.8k, up 18.8% on 111.8k.
  - Week 42 is 101.8k (+2.5%) and week 43 is 167.8k (+83%). Earlier snapshots in the colleague report showed week 42 at about 118–120k and week 43 at about 118k.
  - Weeks 42–43 are still being filled in and are unstable. Treat the week 40 and week 41 figures as firmer.
  - My rough sum for Oct 1–31 is 415–480k loaded imports, against 429k in October 2025. With an import share of roughly 50–52% of total TEU, that implies about 820–940k total. The "+13–20% year over year" reading from the weekly data applies only to week 41, not to the whole month. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/

- [2026-10-17] **Import-to-total conversion.** Imports were 52.3% of total TEU in September 2026 (545,696 of 1,042,652) and 50.6% in October 2025 (429,283 of 848,424). Empties are the swing factor. They were a record 371k in September, against 295k in October 2025. If empties normalise, total TEU falls faster than imports do. This is my calculation from figures already in the reports above. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2025-news-releases/news_111825_oct_cargo

- [2026-10-01] **Trans-Pacific supply is the first driver (carriers and weather, not the port, control it).** C.H. Robinson's October update (fetched) says Golden Week (Oct 1–7) blank sailings keep effective capacity reduced through roughly mid-October.
  - Typhoons in Asia closed some large Chinese container ports and caused port omissions and vessel bunching.
  - Global congestion absorbs about 12% of vessel capacity, a four-year high.
  - Late and bunched arrivals can push discharge into late October and early November, which fits Seroka's "roll pool" reference.
  - If post-holiday departures clear quickly, space loosens in the second half of October. That would mean fewer ship arrivals in LA in November, not October. https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/oct-2026-freight-market-update/ocean/

- [2026-09 / 2026-10] **Blank sailings were lighter than normal.** Xeneta/eeSea data (search snippet; the page itself was not opened) show just under 13% of October Asia–US/Europe capacity blanked. That compares with nearly 18% of trans-Pacific capacity last Golden Week and about 24% in 2023. Planned Asia–US capacity for October is about 2.3M TEU, up from 2.28M in September. Blanked capacity there rises from 129k to 314k TEU in October. Drewry's tracker (about Oct 13) shows 34 void sailings across East-West trades for weeks 42–46, a 5% cancellation rate. Together this suggests supply is not a binding cap on LA arrivals. https://tbgfs.com/golden-week-blank-sailings-down-compared-to-recent-years/ ; https://www.indexbox.io/blog/post-golden-week-container-market-capacity-returns-rates-ease-2/

- [2026-10-13] **Routing diversion is the second driver.** FreightWaves, covering the Oct 9 briefing, reports Seroka saying carriers are shifting cargo to LA from Panama Canal routings. He cited drought constraints and higher fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Purchase orders in Asia were described as "solid", and November–December are hard to forecast. C.H. Robinson says the Oct 1 Neopanamax draft cut was cancelled, but daily transits fell from 34 to 32 on Sep 15. Diversion is therefore still supported but not intensifying. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk

- [2026-09-24] **Tariff and policy timing is the third driver (controlled by the US Treasury, USTR and China).** Bessent extended the Busan truce from Nov 10 to Jan 10, 2027. As of the latest Thomson Reuters analysis (~Oct 12), the extension is not formally documented. Separately, three US measures lapse on Nov 9–10. They include the pause on China-linked ship fees and Section 301 exclusions. Importers could front-load into late October to beat Nov 9–10. That is an upside risk to October arrivals, but it only counts if the cargo is already at sea. The Nov 9–10 lapse falls after October ends. Sources: https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/section-301-exclusions-expiration/ ; https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/092426-us-says-trade-truce-with-china-extended-till-jan-10-2027-ahead-of-trump-xi-meet

- [2026-10-15] **Demand and inventory is the fourth driver.** Wholesale inventory-to-sales has fallen from 1.30 to 1.20, and upstream warehouse utilisation is 36.8%, the lowest since March 2022. Those figures point to room for restocking, which supports holiday-replenishment imports. FreightWaves' Freightonomics also says the ongoing Iran conflict keeps diesel costs elevated. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers

- [2026-10-16] **Terminal capacity is not a constraint in October.** Port Optimizer shows average terminal times of about 61 minutes and turn times of about 73 minutes at LA. Long Beach's Vincent Thomas Bridge deck project starts Nov 7 (already noted by colleagues). It does not affect October.

- [2026-10-17] **Sequence needed for each outcome.**
  - For a total at or above 900k, ships delayed by typhoons and Golden Week must arrive in weeks 42–43 as manifests suggest. Empties must stay elevated, at least about 330k or more.
  - For a total near 1.0M, the Panama diversion and tariff front-loading must hold up through Oct 31, and week 43 must reach the 168k that one snapshot shows.
  - A fall to about 830–870k would need weeks 42–43 to land near the earlier 118k snapshots, or empties to normalise.
  - Publication has to come by Nov 18. Port releases came on Nov 17/18 in 2023 and 2025, so the number can post right at the deadline.

BOTTOM LINE: Weekly import manifests and the lighter-than-usual blank sailings put October near Seroka's ~900k, with a plausible band of about 820–950k. That is narrower and lower than the "+13–20% year over year" reading, because only week 41 shows that gain. The main swing factors are timing of delayed typhoon and Golden Week arrivals, empties, and Panama diversion. Policy events fall mostly after October.

NOT FOUND: A stable week 42–43 manifest count (the snapshots disagree). Readable 2026 monthly "Total TEUs" table text. Any official October interim count. A confirmed release date for the October 2026 data. Whether the Xeneta/eeSea page text matches its snippet, since I could not open the page in full.

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-09] The Port of LA's own forecast for October is about 900,000 TEU. Executive Director Gene Seroka gave it at the monthly briefing, which is the main expert estimate for this quantity. Reuters, FreightWaves and Sourcing Journal all repeat the figure; the briefing was a "range of 900,000" in Maritime Executive's wording. Reasons Seroka gave for volumes staying elevated: typhoon schedule disruptions, China pre-holiday "roll pools", and holiday replenishment. He called November and December hard to forecast. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-12] Sourcing Journal calls 900,000 TEU the minimum implied outcome. That would be +6.1% on October 2025's 848,424 TEU. Its wording suggests Seroka's "around 900,000" may be a floor, but the port itself did not say so. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/port-of-los-angeles-long-beach-cargo-panama-suez-canal-vietnam-1239346167/
- [2026-10-09] Confirmed baseline from the port's release: September was a record 1,042,652 TEU. Loaded imports were 545,696, loaded exports 125,751 and empties about 371,206 (a record). Year to date through September is nearly 8.1M TEU, up more than 3%. https://portoflosangeles.org/references/2026-news-releases/news_100926_sept_cargo
- [2026-10-08] The NRF/Hackett Global Port Tracker, which covers all U.S. ports and not LA alone, forecasts October imports at 2.25M TEU (+8.5% YoY), up from 2.11M in its September report. It sees November at 2.0M (-1%) and December at 2.02M. NRF says "we're likely past the busiest part of the year". https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-is-wrapping-up (search-result text; I did not fetch the page: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up)
- [2026-10-13] A mid-October Port Optimizer snapshot (not a forecast) shows the Oct 11–17 import week (wk 41) at 132,935 TEU, with 21 scheduled vessels. Weekly import-only data is the best near-term check on the 900k figure. A cached page shows 298,343 TEU of planned containers. Treat the snapshot as unverified, since the page was not fetched. https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-12] How accurate Seroka's guidance has been recently: in early September he guided to "exceed 900,000" TEU for September, and the outcome was 1,042,652, about 16% above. For August, the actual was 955,907 (-0.3% YoY). Recent guidance has therefore run low in a surging market. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/september-peak-shipping-season-import-volumes-nrf-global-port-tracker-1239207519/
- [2026-10-08] How accurate the NRF tracker has been: its August report put September at 2.16M, then 2.31M in September's report, then 2.28M in October's report. Its October forecast moved 2.13M → 2.11M → 2.25M across successive reports. NRF has revised repeatedly and in the wrong direction (too low) while the peak extended. https://sgbonline.com/nrf-u-s-container-imports-slows-as-expected-in-october/
- [2026-10-09] Reuters/gCaptain: Seroka cited Panama Canal draft restrictions, high fuel costs and lower tariffs as drivers. He expects roughly a 5% additional diversion to LA/Long Beach, and later said it is "probably a little bit more". https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/
- [2026-10-16] Peer signal: Long Beach set a record 997,177 TEU in September (+25% YoY). https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-long-beach-record-as-volume-nears-1m-containers
- [2026-10-09] The "7% decline" headline in the question is the port's FY2026/27 budget assumption, not an October forecast. The $3.4B budget was approved in June and assumes a 7% cargo decline. It is a conservative planning figure that sits well below current run-rates. https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026
- [2026-10-17] The port's official 2026 statistics page loaded but returned no readable monthly table in the fetch. I could not confirm that an October figure exists; it is not yet published and is expected after the early-November briefing. https://portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics/historical-teu-statistics-2026

BOTTOM LINE: The only direct expert point estimate is Seroka's ~900,000 TEU for October, which would be +6% YoY and about 14% below September's record. His September guidance came in about 16% too low and NRF's national numbers have been revised up, so the risk to that figure looks skewed upward, though NRF and Seroka both expect a post-peak slowdown. I found no prediction-market or community percentiles.

NOT FOUND: prediction-market or community forecasts for October LA TEU; any third-party (non-port) LA-specific October forecast; an October 2026 actual in the port table; a readable monthly table on the statistics page; a fuller Port Optimizer October-to-date total.

### HIGH CASE
- [2026-10-17] A Port Optimizer render (manifest-based loaded imports, subject to change) gives these weekly TEU for 2026. Wk39 was 140,979 (Sep 27–Oct 3, vs 93,572 in 2025). Wk40 was 104,761 (vs 73,533). Wk41 (Oct 11–17) was 132,821 (+18.8% YoY, vs 111,762). The wk42 and wk43 estimates swing a lot between snapshots, so they are low-confidence. Wk42 reads 101,843 in this render and about 118–120k in earlier snippets. Wk43 reads 167,818 here and 118–152k elsewhere. Wk40 and wk41 alone are about 238k, and a 4.4-week October at 105–135k per week implies roughly 480–560k loaded imports, against 429,283 in Oct 2025. That is a high-side signal, since Seroka's 900k would need only about 470k imports with typical exports and empties. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-17] Port Optimizer shows planned inbound containers of 309,236 across 135 planned vessels. An earlier snapshot showed 298,343 across 126 vessels. Scheduled vessels run 21–24 per week, so there is no sign of the schedule thinning out in the second half of October. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-13] Fetched FreightWaves piece: Seroka said Asia purchase orders "remain solid", with the uncertainty confined to November and December. Importers are also shifting cargo to LA from Panama Canal routings because of drought and higher Middle East-related fuel costs. This is a structural diversion, not just a one-month pull-forward. The article's "1.42 million TEUs" for September is a typo for 1,042,652. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-08/09] NRF/Hackett raised its October US import forecast by 6.6% in one report, from 2.11M to 2.25M TEU (+8.5% YoY). Its earlier path was 2.13M, then 2.11M, then 2.25M. Gold said month-to-month differences are "little more than a rounding error". That reads as a plateau, not a cliff. https://wwd.com/sourcing-journal/logistics/nrf-peak-shipping-season-global-port-tracker-descartes-imports-cargo-1239335219/
- [2026-10-08] The NRF tracker's 2.25M for October is only about 1.3% below its 2.28M estimate for September. LA's implied 900k is 14% below September, so LA's guide is much steeper than the national forecast. If LA fell only 1–5% from September, October would be about 990k–1.03M. https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-s-extended-peak-season-wrapping-up
- [2026-10-16] Cyprus Shipping News, citing Sea-Intelligence, says carriers scheduled Asia–North Europe capacity 27% above last year across the Golden Week weeks, with congestion producing double sailings. It expects late blank sailings and rolled cargo in mid-to-late October. Bunched delayed ships and rolled cargo point to lumpy late-October arrivals, which is consistent with a large week 43 estimate. This is a Europe-lane data point and indirect for LA. https://cyprusshippingnews.com/2026/10/16/sogese-report-deliveries-are-still-being-delayed-as-container-freight-rates-fluctuate/
- [2026-10-02] Xeneta/eeSea data show Asia-to-US planned capacity for October of about 2.3M TEU, slightly above September's 2.28M. Blanked capacity rises to 314k TEU in October, from 129k in September. Only about 13% of October capacity was blanked at that point, versus nearly 18% in last year's Golden Week. Only 39% of transpacific services were affected, versus 56% last year. Supply into the US in October is therefore not shrinking. https://tbgfs.com/golden-week-blank-sailings-down-compared-to-recent-years/
- [2026-10-01] Drewry's Shanghai–LA rate was $7,835 per 40-ft and flat on the week. Rates stayed elevated through Golden Week, which suggests demand and space were still tight. https://www.exfreight.com/transpacific-rates-golden-week-booking/
- [2026-10-16] Congestion is tying up capacity. Industry estimates put about 3M TEU (8.5% of the global fleet) tied up before Golden Week, with an average late-vessel delay of 6.8 days. Typhoon-delayed vessels (Saudel, Dujuan) and the resulting backlog can push September-scheduled cargo into October arrivals. This supports Seroka's "typhoon" reason for upside. https://www.global-freight.co.uk/three-million-teu-caught-up-in-delays-ahead-of-golden-week/
- [2026-10-16] Long Beach's September empties were 396,040 TEU (+22.1%), with imports up 31.3%. LA's empties were a record. If carriers keep repositioning boxes to Asia, empties alone could run 330–370k in October, against 295,380 in October 2025. That lifts the total by 40–75k above a simple imports-plus-exports build. https://gcaptain.com/southern-california-ports-shatter-cargo-records-as-imports-surge/
- [2026-10-15] The US–China truce was extended for two months from September 23, holding tariffs at reduced levels. The extension runs to about late November, so there is no tariff-deadline cliff inside October, and importers have little reason to cut orders now. https://www.latintimes.com/tariff-truce-all-time-record-how-l-became-essential-gateway-chinese-goods-600218
- [2026-10-09] Seroka's September guide ("exceed 900,000") came in 16% too low, so the high path is to repeat that error. A build for October: imports about 500–540k, exports about 120–125k, empties about 330–370k, which sums to about 950k–1.035M. A total near or above 1.0M would require imports to hold near September's pace. The weekly data suggests imports are slowing from about 546k, but not by as much as the 900k guide implies. https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is about 950k–1.03M TEU. It rests on weekly manifest imports running 13–27% above year-ago, scheduled vessels holding at 21–24 a week, empties still elevated, and the diversion away from the Panama Canal. A total above 1.04M, a new record, would need late-October arrivals (the wk43 estimate) to come in at the high end and empties to stay near the September record.

NOT FOUND: The October 2026 value and a readable 2026 statistics table. A stable Port Optimizer total for weeks 42–43, since snapshots conflict. Any LA-specific third-party October forecast. I could not fetch the FreightWaves "extra week" article.

### LOW CASE
- [2026-10-17] Low-scenario anchor: Seroka's October guide of about 900,000 TEU was given at the Oct 9 briefing. He tied it to typhoon-delayed cargo, pre-Golden Week roll pools and holiday restocking. He also said Asian purchase orders are "solid" but Nov/Dec are hard to forecast. A result below 900k would need those backlogs to clear faster than he expects. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/despite-new-record-port-of-la-chief-warns-of-tariff-driven-planning-risk
- [2026-10-01] C.H. Robinson (fetched) says the Golden Week blanks keep effective Transpacific capacity reduced through roughly mid-October. It says global port congestion absorbs about 12% of vessel capacity, a four-year high. It calls the first post-holiday sailings the key signal. Rollovers on them mean cargo is queued and arrives late. A quick clearance means the backlog has already been counted. For LA, a slow factory restart after Oct 7 would push arrivals from late October into November. https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/north-america-freight-insights/oct-2026-freight-market-update/ocean/
- [2026-08-27] MSC (fetched Loadstar) blanked its Week 40 Orient and Week 41 Pearl sailings. It cited an "anticipated slowdown in demand during and after" Golden Week. Freightos' Levine said NRF expected imports to decline in October. Both MSC services call at Long Beach, not LA, so the direct hit to LA is not shown. This is carrier-side evidence for a post-holiday air pocket. https://theloadstar.com/msc-blanks-transpac-sailings-as-golden-week-puts-brake-on-demand/
- [2026-09-27] Mid-September timing: Chinese factories front-loaded shipping into the window before the Sept 25–27 Mid-Autumn holiday and Oct 1–7 Golden Week. Transpacific transit is about 14–18 days. Pre-holiday departures therefore mostly landed in late September and early October, and the post-holiday cargo lands in mid-to-late October. That supports a soft late-October trough. It is my inference, not a published LA figure. https://panvaya.com/blog/golden-week-blank-sailings-double-holiday-2026
- [2026-10-17] Port Optimizer, a manifest-based import estimate, is mixed. One snapshot shows wk 41 at 134,324 TEU and wk 42 at 119,952 TEU. wk 43 shows 118,207 in one snapshot and 151,816 in an older cached one. The snapshots conflict, and the later weeks are forecasts subject to change. Weeks 41–43 total roughly 370k–405k imports. Add about 120k for the final week-40 days, plus exports and empties. September had 545,696 imports, so the implied October import total is well below that. Total TEU in the low 900ks is plausible. https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
- [2026-10-08] Downside from NRF: October imports are forecast at 2.25M TEU nationally, and November at 2.0M. NRF says the peak is wrapping up. The tracker is national and has been revised upward repeatedly, so it is not an LA-specific floor. https://www.roic.ai/news/port-of-los-angeles-reports-record-september-container-volume-10-09-2026
- [2026-10-09] Seroka said September's volume was "the major retailers frontloading ahead of tariffs." Front-loading pulls demand forward, and inventory depletion would then show up as a weak Q4. Rogers (Oct 15 podcast, in the AskNews block) cited wholesale destocking. The mechanism is that early arrival of holiday goods leaves little to bring in during October. https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/
- [2026-10-09] The 371k empties in September were a record. Seroka called empties a "tealeaf" on future demand. Empties run about 35% of total TEU, so a normalization swing is a volatility source. In October 2025, empties were 295,380. If they fall back toward about 300–320k and imports ease to about 450–480k, a total near 900k or below is feasible. https://gcaptain.com/container-surge-continues-at-the-port-of-los-angeles/
- [2026-09-24] Policy risk to the downside sits mostly in November, not October. The truce was extended to Jan 10, 2027. But 178 Section 301 exclusions and the pause on China-linked ship fees lapse Nov 9–10, with no extension announced. That could pull cargo into early November, and importers may hold back October orders. Any October effect is small because cargo is already at sea. https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/blog/section-301-exclusions-expiration/
- [2026-10-17] Operational cap: Seroka flagged rail dwell as a watch item on Oct 9, and vessels turn in about four days. A bunched-vessel backlog at the berth would delay discharge into November. Terminal counts follow discharge. If some vessels' cargo is processed after Oct 31, October TEU would be lower. I found no reported LA congestion or labor disruption as of Oct 17. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/despite-record-port-la-chief-193000957.html
- [2026-10-17] A separate negative: Xeneta (cited by Source Alliance) reports announced October blank sailings of at least 13% of Far East–North America capacity. At the time of writing that was the live count. It supports fewer vessel calls, but carriers cover port coverage with inducement calls, so the volume effect is smaller than the headline percentage. https://sourcealliance.net/russian-diesel-deal-having-limited-impact-if-any-on-prices/

BOTTOM LINE: The evidence-backed low path is a post-Golden Week gap, a September that front-loaded holiday goods, and empties normalizing. That would put October at or slightly below Seroka's ~900k, perhaps in the 850–900k range. Calendar and capacity signals support it. Direct LA data (Port Optimizer weekly imports running 13–20% above last year) argue against going much below that.

NOT FOUND: Any October-to-date LA total TEU figure. Any LA-specific third-party forecast. A readable 2026 monthly table on the port's statistics page. Any reported disruption at the port (labor, congestion) for October. Evidence that post-Golden Week sailings were rolled, since the CHR page predates the holiday's end.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: what the resolution source currently shows, and whether the value is already known or fixed as of today.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).

## Calibration guidance

- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Markets and experts are priors, not anchors.** If a SAME QUESTION market, analyst consensus, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior — centre near them and widen — and name the specific evidence they lack whenever you move away. RELATED markets are context only.
- **Open bounds carry real mass.** Where a bound is OPEN, the outcome can land beyond it and the question then resolves "below range" / "above range". Put honest probability there (p_below_min / p_above_max in the output) instead of squeezing the distribution inside the displayed range; the season's worst losses were outcomes that landed where the distribution had ~2%.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
  "p10": <number>,
  "p25": <number>,
  "p50": <number>,
  "p75": <number>,
  "p90": <number>,
  "p_below_min": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is BELOW 700000>,
  "p_above_max": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is ABOVE 1000000>,
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move your p50 by a quarter of your p10-p90 width if false; [] if none>"]
}

Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90). p_below_min is P(outcome < 700000); p_above_max is P(outcome > 1000000). These must agree with your percentiles: a p10 below the lower bound implies p_below_min > 0.10, a p90 above the upper bound implies p_above_max > 0.10. A mass below ~0.05 on an open side needs a specific reason.