Will the AfD's national polling average in the INSA Sonntagsfrage be at least 30% on November 14, 2026?

- **[2026-10-13]** The wahlrecht.de INSA page, the resolution source, shows AfD at 30% in its newest row. That poll is an online one with 2,006 respondents, fielded 9–12 Oct, with Union 18.5, Greens 14, SPD 13.5, Linke 10, FDP 4.5, BSW 3.5 and others 6. I did not find an INSA poll dated 14–17 Oct. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- **[2026-10-13]** The five most recent INSA polls on wahlrecht.de are 30 (13 Oct), 30 (11 Oct), 30.5 (5 Oct), 30 (3 Oct) and 29.5 (29 Sep). The median of those five is 30.0%, which meets the threshold exactly. Dawum's INSA chronicle matches these figures. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm and https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- **[2026-10-03]** The 3 Oct poll (Bild am Sonntag, 28 Sep–2 Oct, n=1,202) was reported as the first time INSA put AfD at 30%. T-online and WiWo reported AfD at 30 and Union at 18, a 12-point gap. WiWo noted the Union was last under 19 in INSA's series, and that some other pollsters showed AfD up to four points lower. https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_101464462/sonntagsfrage-afd-erreicht-30-prozent-cdu-und-csu-verlieren.html and https://www.wiwo.de/politik/deutschland/umfragewerte-der-parteien-insa-umfrage-afd-bei-30-prozent-union-faellt-auf-18/100259492.html
- **[2026-10-05]** The 5 Oct online poll was the AfD's INSA high at 30.5%, with Union at 17.5. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- **[2026-10-13]** Reports on 13 Oct said the Union gained for the first time in eleven weeks in INSA's series, rising to 18.5. The AfD-Union gap is now 11.5 points. The AfD slipped 0.5 point in the 13 Oct poll as reported there (the wahlrecht table shows 30 on 11 Oct and 30 on 13 Oct, so the reported drop looks like a comparison with the 5 Oct poll). https://suaragarut.id/de/union-gewinnt-insa-umfrage-oktober-2026
- **[2026-10-11]** The Bild am Sonntag poll (5–9 Oct, TOM, n=1,207) had AfD at 30, Union at 19, FDP at 4 and BSW at 3. Others rose to 7. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/sonntagsfrage-mini-plus-fuer-die-union-doch-der-afd-vorsprung-bleibt-riesig-zr-94536548.html
- **[2026-09-29]** Before that, AfD was at 29.5 on 29 Sep, 29 on 26 Sep, 29.5 on 22 Sep and 29 on 20 Sep. From mid-May to mid-September INSA had AfD at 28–29 throughout, with no reading of 30 or above. Early 2026 readings were 25–26. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- **[2026-09-21]** Time reported the AfD expanding its gains in the 20 Sep state elections as a "disaster" for Merz. I did not fetch the article. The Wiwo piece (3 Oct) also refers to an AfD election triumph in Sachsen-Anhalt that put Merz in crisis. https://time.com/article/2026/09/21/german-far-right-expands-gains-in-disaster-to-chancellor-merz/
- **[2026-10-16]** An INSA poll for Bild in NRW showed CDU at 26 (down 8 from the earlier survey), AfD at 21 (up 4), SPD at 18 and Greens at 16. This is consistent with continued CDU weakness, but it is a state poll, not federal. https://dawum.de/Nordrhein-Westfalen/INSA/2026-10-16
- **[2026-10-13]** INSA's potential analysis (max potential): AfD 37%, SPD 36.5%, Union 33.5%. AfD's potential is up 4 points since November 2025. Stated margin of error is about ±2.5 points. INSA publishes twice weekly, a Tuesday online poll and a Saturday/Sunday TOM poll. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/ and https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/umfrage-afd-verliert-union-holt-auf-doch-merz-kann-sich-nur-bedingt-freuen-zr-94538480.html
- **[2026-10-13]** Other pollsters are lower than INSA. ZDF Politbarometer (reported around 10 Oct) had AfD 28 and Union 21. YouGov had the Union at 18 in mid-September, and GMS had AfD at 30. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/sonntagsfrage-mini-plus-fuer-die-union-doch-der-afd-vorsprung-bleibt-riesig-zr-94536548.html
- **[2026-10-17]** The wahlrecht.de page notes that BSW was renamed "Bündnis Soziale Gerechtigkeit und Wirtschaftliche Vernunft" on 1 Oct 2026. This is a labelling change only. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- **Mechanics:** the resolution takes the median of the five latest polls published before 15 Nov. About 8–9 more INSA polls will be published between now and then, so the window will be entirely new polls. The median is 30.0 only if at least three of the last five are 30 or higher. Readings come in 0.5-point steps, and INSA has had AfD at exactly 30 in 3 of its last 5 polls.

BOTTOM LINE: As of 17 Oct the resolution source's five-poll median is exactly 30.0%, with INSA's AfD readings at 29.5–30.5 over the last 2.5 weeks and the Union only slightly rebounding. The outcome sits right on the threshold and will depend on whether AfD holds 30 or slips back to 29–29.5 over the next four weeks.

NOT FOUND: INSA polls published 14–17 Oct (the Saturday 17 Oct poll was not yet visible). The full text of the Time article. Any scheduled event before 14 Nov that would clearly move national numbers.

- [2026-10-13] The five most recent INSA polls on wahlrecht.de are AfD 30.0 (13.10), 30.0 (11.10), 30.5 (05.10), 30.0 (03.10) and 29.5 (29.09). Their median is 30.0, so the question currently sits exactly on the threshold. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] INSA publishes about twice a week: an online poll of about 2,000 people (Mon/Tue) and a phone/online mix of about 1,200 (Fri–Sun). Roughly 10 more releases are likely before Nov 15, so the "last 5" window will be wholly new data. The median needs at least 3 of those 5 readings at 30.0 or higher. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-13] INSA's AfD series was 25–26 in Jan–Mar 2026 and 26–28 in Apr–May. It reached 29 in mid-May and held at 28–29 from May to September. It was 29.0–29.5 from 8 Sept to 29 Sept. The first 30.0 came on 03.10, and the first 30.5 on 05.10. Before October the series never reached 30, and INSA's own 5-poll median has not been at or above 30 before. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-13] The latest reading (13.10) was AfD 30.0 and Union 18.5. The Union gained 0.5 for the first time in eleven weeks, while the AfD was flat on the previous poll. The 30.5 on 05.10 looks like a local peak, and the last three polls were 30.0 or just under. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/2026-10-13/
- [2026-10-17] INSA is the high-end pollster. Latest AfD figures by pollster: GMS 30 (14.09), YouGov 29 (15.09), Allensbach 28 (24.09), Verian 28 (25.09), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 28 (08.10), Infratest dimap 27 (01.10), Forsa 26 (13.10). INSA's house effect is therefore +2 to +4 against Forsa and Infratest, and INSA's level is not corroborated elsewhere. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
- [2026-10-17] Aggregators put the cross-pollster average at about 27.8–28.4% (bundestagwahlumfrage.de 27.8; wahl-umfragen.de 28.3; politische-stimmung.de 28.0). That is 2 points below INSA's level. This suggests INSA's 30 sits above the consensus and could drift back toward 29 if the Union stabilises. https://bundestagwahlumfrage.de/bundestag/
- [2026-10-06 to 2026-10-13] Forsa had the AfD at 26 for three straight weeks (29.09, 06.10, 13.10), with the Left up to 12. Other pollsters show no AfD breakout comparable to INSA's, so the late-September/October rise is not clearly visible outside INSA. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/Forsa/
- [2026-10-13] Past INSA behaviour (reference class): in the 5-month window from 16.05 to 26.09 the AfD sat in a 28.0–29.5 band with no reading above 29.5. Week-to-week moves are usually 0–1 point and rarely exceed 1.5. A one-month change in the 5-poll median of at least 1.0 happened a few times in 2026, for example 26 to 28 in April and 28 to 29 in May. The median has shown momentum, not mean reversion, since March: 25 (Mar), 28 (Apr–May), 29 (Jun–Sep), 30 (Oct). https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-03] Reports say the 30% reading on 03.10 (Bild am Sonntag) was the first national 30 in INSA, and the first in any national poll per the 20min.ch report. It is read as a milestone and a record low for the Union at 18. Context: the Union–SPD coalition has only about 32% and Merz's approval is poor (79% dissatisfied in the INSA/Bild report). https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_101464462/sonntagsfrage-afd-erreicht-30-prozent-cdu-und-csu-verlieren.html
- [2026-09-21] Backdrop: Time reports AfD gains in the September state elections. INSA polls put the AfD at 43% in Sachsen-Anhalt and 40% in Brandenburg. A fresh INSA NRW poll (16.10) has the CDU down 8 to 26 and the AfD up 4 to 21. Momentum is broadly in the AfD's favour. https://politmonitor.de/institut/insa
- [2026-10-17] I found no betting-market odds or expert forecasts on whether INSA will reach 30 by 14 November. Statistically, INSA's quoted average deviation from election results is ±1.56 points (dawum). https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/

BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is a poll series sitting exactly at the threshold, with a median of 30.0 on a short upward run that has persisted for about 2 weeks. INSA also runs 2–4 points above other pollsters, and the 5-poll median has never been at or above 30 before. The outcome is close to a coin flip on the numbers, with slight persistence in favour of Yes unless the Union keeps recovering from 18.5.

NOT FOUND: Betting or prediction-market odds for this specific threshold, expert forecasts for November, and an INSA poll published after 13.10.2026.

- [2026-10-17] The wahlrecht.de INSA table, which I fetched, shows no row after 13.10. The five-poll median is still 30.0. It is built from 30 / 30 / 30.5 / 30 / 29.5, so it sits exactly on the threshold. The window will turn over fully. The table also shows that AfD has been at 29–29.5 in 6 of the 8 polls from 8.09 to 29.09. Driver 1 is therefore whether the early-October step-up of about +0.75 persists. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

- [2026-10-17] Most of the AfD's INSA movement comes from the Union's decline. INSA's Union series fell from 20 (12.09) to 17.5 (5.10), then recovered to 18.5–19. INSA's "Others" were 6–7. The AfD reading therefore tracks Union weakness. A Union recovery of about 1 point would plausibly cost the AfD about 0.5 point. That is the main route to No. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

- [2026-10-11] INSA chief Binkert attributed the Union's small gain to the SPD electorate's rejection of a red-green-red alliance led by Die Linke in Berlin. He also said AfD+Union would reach 49%. This points to a cause of Union movement that is not about Merz. Berlin coalition talks are a live driver the INSA head himself cites. https://nius.de/nachrichten/afd-haelt-30-19-abstand-zur-union-stabil

- [2026-10-13] Forsa's weekly poll had AfD at 26 for the third week in a row and Union at 19. Forsa reports 25% non-voters and undecideds (+1). Among 2025 Union voters who have left the party, 37% say they would not vote at all and only 18% name the AfD. The Union's losses are not all flowing to the AfD. That caps the AfD upside outside INSA's weighting, which lifts the AfD more than Forsa's does. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/politik/forsa-union-bleibt-mit-19-prozent-hinter-afd-zurueck/70314560

- [2026-10-13] The Forsa piece cites a ZDF report of 11.10 on a CDU leadership retreat after the "Wahl-Debakel" and "Merz in schwerer Krise". This is a possible mechanism for a leadership or course change, a Union-side shock that could rally or split the Union. Whether a leadership challenge is under way is not confirmed in these sources. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/politik/forsa-union-bleibt-mit-19-prozent-hinter-afd-zurueck/70314560

- [2026-10-05] Government drivers: the Union and SPD are in open dispute over the income-tax reform (first reading in the Bundestag the week of 5.10), the sugar levy, the 2027 budget, and pension decisions Merz wants by year-end. Merz publicly demanded the coalition "stay together". A coalition committee had no published agenda. Unresolved quarrels or a coalition crisis would keep the Union low. A visible deal could lift it. https://presse.online/2026/10/05/merz-koalition-streit-ueber-haushalt-und-steuerreform/

- [2026-10-13] The cross-institute mean of 8 institutes was AfD 28.2 and Union 19.9 (13.10). The October mean for AfD is 28.4 against 22.2 in March 2025. The Union's monthly mean fell 1.1 points against September. The AfD is rising in the broader polling average too, but about 2 points under INSA. INSA at 30 is a consistent house-effect high, not an outlier from a single poll. https://bundestagswahl-2029.com/umfragen/

- [2026-10-13] The INSA 13.10 poll was online with n=2,006. INSA's AfD figure came in 0.5 under the 5.10 poll of the same online type (30.5 to 30), so comparison across the two series is cleaner. The online series ran 29 (20.09), 29.5 (22.09), 29.5 (29.09), 30.5 (5.10) and 30 (13.10). The TOM series ran 29 (26.09), 30 (3.10) and 30 (11.10). Neither series has fallen below 30 since 3.10. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/

- [2026-10-17] Sequence needed for Yes: (1) the 18.10 TOM and 20.10 online polls hold AfD at 30 or above; (2) no Union rebound beyond about 19.5 and no SPD or Linke consolidation that pulls AfD to 29.5; (3) at least three of the five polls published through 14.11 (about 10 will appear by then) stay at 30 or higher. Nothing in the retrieved sources identifies a scheduled event before 14.11 that would force a break. The Berlin and coalition-reform news cycle is the main uncontrolled input. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

- [2026-10-13] The other drivers are named but not quantified. The Forsa competence scores had AfD at 14% and Union at 9%, with 55% trusting no party. This points to an anti-government mood with no obvious catalyst for a Union rebound. The structural signal is that dissatisfaction is broad and Union voters are going to non-voting, which INSA's weighting reduces. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/politik/forsa-union-bleibt-mit-19-prozent-hinter-afd-zurueck/70314560

BOTTOM LINE: The outcome depends mainly on the Union's trajectory (18.5–19 now, after a low of 17.5), which in INSA's series moves almost one-for-one against the AfD. Persistence of the 30 plateau is plausible given the broad anti-government mood, but the median has no cushion and the AfD was at 29–29.5 in 6 of 8 INSA polls before October.

NOT FOUND: Any INSA poll published after 13.10. The 14–17.10 Politbarometer or Deutschlandtrend, and the 17.10 Saturday INSA poll. A scheduled national event before 14.11 that would clearly shift numbers. Confirmation that a CDU leadership challenge is under way. The Time article's text.

Current state of the resolution source. The latest five INSA polls on wahlrecht.de are 13.10 (30), 11.10 (30), 05.10 (30.5), 03.10 (30) and 29.09 (29.5). Their median is 30.0, which is exactly on the threshold, so there is no cushion.

- [2026-10-13] wahlrecht.de, INSA page (fetched). INSA AfD readings: 13.10 = 30 (online, 2,006 respondents, field 9–12.10); 11.10 = 30 (T/O mix, 1,207); 05.10 = 30.5; 03.10 = 30; 29.09 = 29.5; 26.09 = 29; 22.09 = 29.5; 20.09 = 29. INSA's AfD figure was 28–29 from July to early September and 25–27 in March–April. The median of the last five is 30.0, so "≥30.0" currently holds. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] Apollo News. The 13.10 INSA poll gave the AfD 30 for the fourth time in a row, with the Union back at 18.5 after 19 on 11.10. A seat projection gives the AfD 220 of 630 seats. https://apollo-news.net/afd-bleibt-bei-30-prozent-union-sinkt-wieder-ab/
- [2026-10-03] dpa via 20min.ch (fetched). The AfD reached 30 in INSA for the first time on 3 Oct, with the Union at 18. INSA head Hermann Binkert, a former CDU politician, said Union and SPD "will not be able to turn this negative trend substantially". Binkert is the only named expert view I found. 79% are dissatisfied with the government. Other institutes had already shown similar levels: GMS had the AfD at 30 in mid-September, and YouGov had the Union at 18. https://www.20min.ch/story/bundesweite-zahlen-umfrage-zeigt-afd-ist-jetzt-volkspartei-cdu-auf-rekordtief-103643503
- [2026-10-03] TRT/dpa. INSA gives a maximum error margin of ±2.9 points. dpa notes that more recent polls from other institutes have the AfD up to four points lower and the Union up to five higher. https://www.trtdeutsch.com/article/534ab997cf9f
- [2026-10-13] Other pollsters, October 2026 (bundestagwahlumfrage.de, fetched). AfD: Forsa 26 (13.10, 06.10), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 28 (08.10), Ipsos 28 (08.10), Infratest dimap 27 (01.10), YouGov 29 (15.09). Their unweighted average is 27.8. INSA is the highest of the regular institutes (a house effect of about +2 to +4 points versus Forsa and Infratest). https://bundestagwahlumfrage.de/bundestag/
- [2026-10-13] Wikipedia dynamic average (Forsa, INSA and YouGov only) is 28.0 for the AfD, with the Union at 19.6. Wikipedia's poll table also lists Allensbach 28 (24.09), Verian 28 (22.09), GMS 30 (14.09) and pollytix 27 (16.09). https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_22._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen
- [2026-10-12] politpro.eu shows its latest national reading as INSA, AfD 30.0. It describes the ruling coalition as divided over pensions and inheritance tax, with record-low approval. https://politpro.eu/en/germany
- [2026-10-16] INSA NRW poll for Bild: AfD 21 (+4 versus May) and CDU 26 (−8). This is a supporting sign of momentum against the CDU, not a national figure. https://dawum.de/Nordrhein-Westfalen/INSA/2026-10-16
- [2026-09-21] State-level context. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the AfD doubled its vote to 38%. Time called the September state elections a "disaster" for Merz (the Time article itself was not fetched). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election
- [2026-10-13] A separate bundestagwahlumfrage.de page notes the AfD range across institutes is 26 to 30. https://bundestagwahlumfrage.de/bundestag/sonntagsfrage/
- [2026-10-08] Prediction markets. Polymarket's German elections hub lists only state-level contracts (Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, AfD in a state government). Earlier Kalshi and Polymarket markets covered Saxony-Anhalt state results. I found no market on the AfD's national INSA or federal poll level. https://polymarket.com/predictions/german-elections
- [2026-10-16] Press commentary, no forecast. The Ostsee-Zeitung piece describes AfD gains and notes that RND computes a daily average of ten surveys. No analyst forecast of the AfD's INSA level for 14 November was found. https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/politik/umfragen-zu-parteien-aktuelle-trends-fuer-spd-union-afd-gruene-und-co-16-10-2026-462SFUR3SNBCLN3ACXRFNANNSE.html

BOTTOM LINE: INSA's five-poll median for the AfD is exactly 30.0 today. INSA is the high outlier among institutes (other pollsters 26–29, average about 28). The only expert quote found, from INSA's chief, says the negative trend for the government parties will not reverse, but no market or published forecast covers this metric, and the 30 figure sits right on the threshold. Because INSA rounds to 0.5 and polls twice a week, a small dip (for example 29.5 in three of the last five) would flip the outcome.

NOT FOUND: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus markets on the national AfD or INSA poll level. Any published expert or analyst forecast for the AfD's INSA figure in November. The Time article was not opened, and no Politbarometer or Deutschlandtrend commentary was retrieved.

YES means: the median AfD figure across the 5 most recent INSA Sonntagsfrage polls published before 15 Nov 2026 on wahlrecht.de is ≥30.0%.

- [2026-10-17] I re-fetched the wahlrecht.de INSA table. Its newest row is 13.10 (AfD 30), followed by 11.10 (30), 05.10 (30.5), 03.10 (30) and 29.09 (29.5). The median is 30.0, so the question already resolves YES on today's data. The table has no row dated 14–17 Oct. The AfD's INSA series before October ran 29.0–29.5 from 8 Sept to 29 Sept. Over those weeks every AfD reading was ≥29 and the last four readings were ≥29.5. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-17] The same table shows no INSA AfD reading below 28 since mid-May. The 5-poll median only needs three of five readings at 30 or more. The AfD gap to the Union is wide: 11.5 points at 18.5, against 8–9 points in mid-September. The Union fell from 20–20.5 in early September to 17.5–19 in October. The AfD has been at or above 29 in every INSA poll since 12 Sept. The table also shows the AfD at 28 in some Aug polls, with a 0.5–1 point step up since then. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-12] NZZ (fetched) describes a CDU leadership crisis after the Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern defeats. In MV the CDU missed the Landtag for the first time in its history. NZZ says ARD-Deutschlandtrend shows only about one in ten satisfied with Merz. It also says "first institutes" put the Union below 20 in October. Mechanism for YES: no near-term fix for the Union's standing. https://www.nzz.ch/deutschland/politik/cdu-im-stimmungstief-mit-entlastungen-sucht-merz-den-befreiungsschlag-ld.10031483
- [2026-10-12] Merz's relaunch package (cutting the electricity tax to the EU minimum) is conditional on growth forecasts coming true, so it will not produce relief before mid-November. The pension reform is still not launched. Labour minister Bas resigned on 12 Oct, an additional government shock. Successor Schweitzer is not expected to speed reforms. NZZ says the Union–SPD coalition is split on many disputes. Next real electoral test is NRW in April 2027, outside the window. https://www.nzz.ch/deutschland/politik/cdu-im-stimmungstief-mit-entlastungen-sucht-merz-den-befreiungsschlag-ld.10031483
- [2026-10-07] Webnachrichten/Merkur reports political scientist Lembcke saying the coalition is in a "downward spiral". He says the 7 Oct coalition committee was about whether SPD and Union can govern together at all. A coalition rupture or leadership fight before 14 Nov would likely keep the AfD at 30 or higher in INSA. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/krisengipfel-der-merz-koalition-kein-vertrauen-mehr-an-der-spitze-zr-94527586.html
- [2026-10-13] The Dawum record for the 13.10 poll shows AfD 30.0 (±0 vs 11.10). The Union was 18.5 (−0.5) in dawum's own comparison. The AfD vs 2025 result is +9.2. In the potential analysis, AfD is the highest of the parties. So the 30.0 is stable across two consecutive polls of different modes (TOM n=1,207 and online n=2,006), not a one-off. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-03] The Berliner Zeitung piece in the search shows the 3 Oct headline "AfD kratzt an der 30-Prozent-Marke". It reports the AfD at 29 with Union 19 in the 25 Sept TOM wave. Greens at 15, their best INSA result since Sept 2023. This shows the Union's collapse is not mainly flowing to one rival. The Greens, SPD and Left share the gains, which splits the anti-AfD vote. That lowers the chance of a consolidating rival. https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/insa-umfrage-union-rutscht-auf-19-prozent-10434825
- [2026-10-13] On the pollster side, INSA publishes twice weekly and uses the same Bild-commissioned method throughout. There is no sign of an INSA methodology change. wahlrecht.de's only note concerns the BSW renaming effective 1 Oct. That means INSA's higher AfD level versus other firms is a persistent house effect rather than noise. The 29.0–30.5 band since September can persist. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-16] The INSA NRW poll for Bild (fielded 6–13 Oct) has the CDU down 8 points to 26 and AfD up to 21, a first-time 20%+ result there. So the CDU slide is still visible in INSA's own newest fieldwork, from the same week as the national 30s. https://apollo-news.net/wst-cdu-bricht-ein-union-in-nrw-nur-noch-fnf-prozent-vor-der-afd/
- [2026-10-17] Most likely path to YES: the AfD stays at 30 (or within 29.5–30.5) in INSA through early November. The Union stays at about 18–19.5 with no new Merz crisis resolution. Three of the last five readings by 14 Nov are then ≥30. Prerequisite: no substantial Union rebound. The 13.10 Union gain of 0.5 was the first rise in eleven weeks, so a rebound is not yet a trend. The AfD would have to avoid more than 0.5 points of slippage in most polls. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

BOTTOM LINE: The resolution table already gives a 30.0 median, so YES is the status quo, and the AfD has held 30 or higher in four of the last five INSA polls. It needs only mild persistence through a government in visible trouble, since the lowest case is a median of 30.0 with no cushion. This is the strongest-YES reading and does not show a margin above the threshold.

NOT FOUND: any INSA poll published 14–17 Oct (the Saturday 17 Oct release was not yet visible); the full text of the Time article; any forecast or market on the INSA AfD level for 14 Nov; any scheduled event before 14 Nov that would clearly move national numbers.

YES means: the median AfD share of the five most recent INSA polls published before 15 Nov 2026 on wahlrecht.de is 30.0% or higher.

This is the case for NO only. The question sits on the threshold, so the NO case is mostly arithmetic.

- [2026-10-17] The median must reach 30.0 in a window made entirely of new polls. The wahlrecht.de table I fetched shows the current top five as 30, 30, 30.5, 30, 29.5. Because INSA publishes about twice a week, all five of those will have rolled off by 14 Nov. Today's median therefore carries almost no information about the window. The question is whether three or more of the last five polls, roughly those from 3–13 Nov, print 30 or higher. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-17] Every extra-threshold run is recent. Looking at the full fetched table, AfD sat at 28–29.5 on every INSA row from 12 May to 29 Sep (about 4.5 months). The first 30 came on 3 Oct. Three of the 30s are within 10 days, and one of those, the 30.5, is a single poll. The only comparable earlier peak was 28.5 on 11 Aug, which reverted to 28. Reverting to 29–29.5 would resolve NO. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] The 13 Oct poll shows the AfD flat at 30 while the Union, SPD, FDP and BSW all gained or held. Binkert, INSA's head, explained the Union's small rise on 11 Oct. He said SPD voters who dislike a left-led red-green-red Berlin Senate will move to CDU/CSU. If the Berlin coalition talks continue to dominate news, that mechanism could keep working against the AfD. This is a mechanism he offered, not a forecast. https://nius.de/nachrichten/afd-haelt-30-19-abstand-zur-union-stabil
- [2026-10-13] The AfD has not gained since 5 Oct. Its INSA readings have gone 30.5, then 30, 30 and 30, with the Union at 17.5, 18, 19 and 18.5. The drift in the leader's share is flat to slightly down, and the Union's recovery is its first in eleven weeks. A further half-point slip would put AfD readings at 29.5, which would resolve NO. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-13] Forsa had the AfD at 26 for the third week running (29 Sep, 6 Oct, 13 Oct), with the Union at 19 and the Left at 12. Forsa shows no AfD rise through the period when INSA rose from 29 to 30. The gap between Forsa and INSA is 4 points. The Forsa fieldwork was 6–12 Oct, which overlaps INSA's October peak. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/merz-verliert-so-viel-rueckhalt-in-der-union-wie-nie-zuvor-umfrage-zr-94540246.html
- [2026-10-17] The politpro weighted average across institutes is 27.9% for the AfD. Its 3-month gain is only +0.3, against the 1 point or more INSA shows over the same period. INSA is 2 points above the cross-institute consensus, so a convergence over the next four weeks pulls INSA down. A move up by the others would be needed for INSA to hold at 30. https://politpro.eu/de/deutschland
- [2026-10-17] The AfD's non-voter pool seems to be moving to others and the Left, not the AfD. In the 13 Oct poll, the Left sits at 10, Greens 14, and the potential analysis is unchanged in absolute terms. In Forsa, undecided and non-voters are 25%, up 1 point, and the Left gains to 12. Disaffected voters are going to the Left and Greens, and the AfD's gain is not accelerating. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/merz-verliert-so-viel-rueckhalt-in-der-union-wie-nie-zuvor-umfrage-zr-94540246.html
- [2026-10-17] There is a technical risk in how the figure is read. The resolution takes the displayed median of the last five rows. Half-point rounding means that a run of 29.5, 30, 29.5, 30, 29.5 gives a median of 29.5 and resolves NO. INSA moves in 0.5 steps, so a drift of just 0.5 in the central tendency decides it. There is no cushion at all. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] Merz's ratings are at record lows: 87% dissatisfied in the Forsa/RTL poll, 65% expecting him to leave office early. Yet this has not lifted INSA's AfD figure above 30.5. INSA's Union figure of 18–19 is also close to the Union's floor in other pollsters, where it is 19–21. That limits further AfD gains from Union losses, which supports a plateau, not a rise. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/merz-verliert-so-viel-rueckhalt-in-der-union-wie-nie-zuvor-umfrage-zr-94540246.html
- [2026-10-17] The Saturday 17 Oct INSA poll was not yet on the wahlrecht.de page I fetched, whose newest row is 13 Oct. I found no scheduled national event before 14 Nov that would clearly push the AfD up. A "status quo" outcome is therefore drift around 29.5–30, where small noise decides the result. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is that INSA's 30 is a two-week plateau after 4.5 months at 29.5 or below. INSA also sits 2–4 points above Forsa, Infratest and the cross-institute average, and the Union has just made its first INSA gain in eleven weeks. With no cushion and 0.5-point steps, even a small reversion to 29.5 in three of the five relevant polls resolves NO.

NOT FOUND: INSA polls published after 13 Oct, including the 17 Oct poll. The Time article text. Any market or expert forecast for INSA's November level. Any scheduled event before 14 Nov that would move national numbers.

10 AskNews articles (newest first; 4 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-16] German Federal Election Polls: Coalition Decline and Rise of AfD and BSW
OZ - Ostsee-Zeitung — https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/politik/umfragen-zu-parteien-aktuelle-trends-fuer-spd-union-afd-gruene-und-co-16-10-2026-462SFUR3SNBCLN3ACXRFNANNSE.html
  - Published on October 16, 2026, by OZ - Ostsee-Zeitung, the article analyzes German federal election polling trends ('Sonntagsfrage') conducted by institutes like Forsa and Infratest dimap.
  - The report details the trajectory of the 'Ampel' coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) following the 2021 election: the SPD initially led but was overtaken by the Union; the Greens' support peaked briefly before declining; and the FDP lost significant ground, failing to clear the 5% threshold in the 2025 Bundestag election.
  - The article identifies the AfD as the primary beneficiary of these losses, rising to become the second-strongest party in mid-2023 before losing some ground in early 2024.
  - Additionally, the new party BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) was polled for the first time during this period, narrowly missing the 5% mark.
  - The text notes that the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) calculates a daily average of the previous ten surveys.

[2026-10-16] NRW Polling Data Shows CDU Decline and AfD Rise Ahead of Spring 2027 Election
News.de — https://www.news.de/politik/860100388/nrw-umfrage-cdu-verliert-deutlich-afd-legt-zu-landtagswahl-news-der-dpa-aktuell-zu-wahl-landtag-und-partei/1/
  - According to a new Insa poll conducted between October 6 and 13, 2026, the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has dropped to 26 percent, a decrease of 8 points from a survey conducted six months ago.
  - The AfD has risen to 21 percent, an increase of 4 points.
  - The SPD remains stable at 18 percent, while the Greens have gained one point to reach 16 percent.
  - The Left party has increased to 10 percent, and the FDP remains at 4 percent, likely failing to meet the 5 percent threshold, as does the BSW at 3 percent.
  - The poll indicates that the current ruling coalition of CDU and Greens no longer holds a majority and would require an additional coalition partner.
  - A contrasting Forsa poll from late September, commissioned by the 'Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger', showed the CDU at 29 percent and the AfD at 22 percent, which is approximately four times their share in the 2022 state election.
  - The state election in NRW is scheduled for the spring of 2027.

[2026-10-16] NRW CDU Polls Plummet: Wüst Faces Pressure Ahead of 2027 Election
Der Westen — https://www.derwesten.de/region/wuest-nrw-umfrage-afd-cdu-id302181674.html
  - According to a new INSA survey for 'Bild' published on October 16 2026, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) Minister President Armin Laschet (Wüst) of the CDU faces mounting pressure ahead of the April 25, 2027 state election.
  - The CDU's lead has shrunk significantly, dropping from 36 percent in November 2025 to 26 percent in the current poll, representing a loss of ten percentage points.
  - The far-right AfD has surged to 21 percent, while the SPD and Greens are locked in a close race for third place with 18 percent and 16 percent respectively.
  - The Left party has re-entered the polls at 10 percent, while the FDP is projected to fall below the threshold with 4 percent.
  - The article notes that a potential 'red-green-red' coalition (SPD, Greens, and The Left) could reach 44 percent, which is still short of a majority, as a CDU-AfD combination would theoretically hold 47 percent.
  - Despite this, the article suggests that a re-election for Wüst is no longer guaranteed.
  - The CDU is advised to campaign as a 'force of the center' against both the AfD and a potential left-wing alliance.
  - The text also speculates on Wüst's future, noting that without a 2027 victory, his potential rise to national leadership as a successor to Friedrich Merz would be unlikely.

[2026-10-03] AfD Reaches 30 Percent in Latest INSA Poll, Surpasses Union by 12 Points
Opposition 24 — https://opposition24.com/politik/afd-30-prozent-insa-union-18-prozent/
  - According to a new INSA Sunday survey published on October 3, 2026, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) has reached 30 percent, marking the first time the party has achieved this level of support.
  - The survey, conducted between September 28 and October 2, 2026, interviewed 1,202 individuals via telephone and online panel.
  - The CDU and CSU have fallen to 18 percent, creating a twelve-point gap between the two parties.
  - The SPD and the Greens each hold 14 percent, totaling 28 percent when combined, which is still below the AfD's 30 percent.
  - The Left party (Die Linke) stands at 10 percent, while the FDP and BSW each have 4 percent, falling short of the 5 percent threshold for Bundestag entry.
  - The remaining 6 percent is distributed among other parties.
  - The article describes this as a political slap for the current coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD, which together command only 32 percent, just two points ahead of the AfD alone.
  - This represents a significant shift from mid-April, when the AfD was at 26 percent and the Union at 25 percent, indicating a four-point gain for the AfD and a seven-point loss for the Union over the past six months.

[2026-10-03] AfD Surges to 30% in German Polling; Union Slumps to 18%
philosophia-perennis.com — https://philosophia-perennis.com/2026/10/03/afd-erstmals-bei-30-prozent-union-stuerzt-auf-18-prozent-ab/
  - According to a polling survey conducted by INSA for 'Bild am Sonntag' and published on October 3, 2026, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party reached 30% support in the 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) for the first time, coinciding with the German Day of Unity.
  - The Union (CDU/CSU) dropped to 18%, creating a 12-point gap.
  - This represents a significant shift from the 2025 Bundestag election results, where the Union secured 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%.
  - The article notes that the Union's current standing is more than 10 percentage points below their 2025 election result, while the AfD is nearly 9 points higher.
  - The report attributes the Union's decline to the unpopularity of Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, describing him as 'unbelievable like no chancellor before him.' The text frames the AfD's rise as a trend that has developed over months, occurring despite campaigns by NGOs, media, unions, and church representatives against the party.

[2026-10-03] AfD Hits 30 Percent for First Time as Union Drops to 18 Percent in New Poll
T-online.de — https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_101464462/sonntagsfrage-afd-erreicht-30-prozent-cdu-und-csu-verlieren.html
  - According to a new 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday question) survey conducted by Insa for 'Bild am Sonntag' between September 28 and October 2, 2026, the AfD has reached 30 percent for the first time, while the Union (CDU and CSU) has dropped to 18 percent.
  - The survey, which interviewed 1,202 people, found that the SPD and the Greens each received 14 percent, the Left Party received 10 percent, and both the BSW and FDP received 4 percent, narrowly missing the parliamentary threshold.
  - Consequently, the current federal government coalition of Union and SPD holds only 32 percent of the vote, whereas a 'Red-Red-Green' coalition would command 38 percent.

[2026-09-19] Polls Show Tight SPD vs. AfD Race Ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Election
Augsburger Allgemeine — https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/politik/umfragen-zur-landtagswahl-2026-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-aktuelle-umfrageergebnisse-24-115077275
  - The Landtag election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026, a date set by the state government on July 29, 2025.
  - According to the Augsburger Allgemeine, the state is divided into 36 electoral districts, and voters will use two votes: one for a direct candidate and one for a party list, with the latter determining seat distribution.
  - A distinctive feature of this election is that 16- and 17-year-olds are eligible to vote, a right Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shares with only seven other German states.
  - Multiple polling institutes have released recent survey results indicating a tight race between the SPD and AfD.
  - The most recent poll, conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF on September 17, 2026, shows the SPD at 37 percent and the AfD at 36 percent.
  - Other polls from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forsa between July and September 2026 consistently place the SPD between 28 and 37 percent and the AfD between 35 and 38 percent.
  - Die Linke is projected to receive between 9 and 12 percent of the vote, while the CDU ranges from 6 to 10 percent.
  - The newly founded BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), established in 2024, is projected to receive between 3 and 5 percent.
  - A total of 19 parties are contesting the election, including the six parties currently in the Landtag: SPD, AfD, CDU, Die Linke, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, and FDP.

[2026-08-30] Poll: One in Five Germans Would Leave if AfD Forms Government
watson.ch/ — https://www.watson.ch/!960941303
  - According to an Insa survey commissioned by 'Bild am Sonntag' and published on August 30, 2026, 47% of Germans believe it would be harmful if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came to power in Berlin, while 36% disagree.
  - The poll, conducted on August 27 and 28 among 1,001 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, found that 22% (approximately one in five) stated they would leave Germany if the AfD formed a government.
  - Although the AfD currently leads in voter preference, no other parliamentary party has offered a coalition with them.
  - The article notes that while several state branches of the AfD are classified by authorities as 'securely right-wing extremist,' the party has sued to block a similar classification for the federal party, with a decision pending.
  - The next federal election is scheduled for spring 2029.

[2026-08-15] Union Polling at 20% in Germany, Lowest Since October 2021
Wöchentlich — https://wochentlich.de/union-bei-insa-so-schwach-wie-seit-herbst-2021-nicht-mehr/
  - According to a weekly Insa survey conducted for 'Bild am Sonntag' and published on August 15, 2026, the CDU/CSU union (Union) is polling at 20% nationwide, its lowest level since October 2021 and a drop of one percentage point from the previous week.
  - This survey, which interviewed 1,203 people between August 10 and August 14, 2026, indicates a difficult outlook for the Union in a hypothetical federal election, despite hopes for better results in three upcoming state elections in September.
  - The Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the strongest party with 28%, followed by the Greens at 13%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Left (Linke) each at 12%, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) at 5%, which would be enough to enter the Bundestag.
  - The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is projected to miss the 5% threshold with 3%.
  - The three state elections are scheduled for September 6 in Saxony-Anhalt, and September 20 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin.

[2026-08-04] Insa Poll Predicts AfD Lead in Saxony-Anhalt Ahead of 2026 Election
Wöchentlich — https://wochentlich.de/wahlumfrage-gibt-prognose-ab-vier-parteien-zittern/
  - According to an Insa survey conducted on July 3, 2026, for the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election, the AfD leads with 41 percent, followed by the CDU with 23 percent and The Left with 13 percent.
  - The SPD is projected at six percent and the BSW at five percent, both clearing the five percent threshold, while the Greens, FDP, and other parties are tied at four percent and risk falling below the threshold.
  - Based on these figures, the CDU and SPD would only secure 27 seats combined, falling short of the 42 seats required for a majority according to the Dawum statistics portal.
  - While the AfD cannot achieve an absolute majority alone, it could form a coalition with any other party that clears the threshold.
  - The article notes that the survey was commissioned by the right-wing portal 'Nius' and cites the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, which warns that 'Sonntagsfrage' results reflect current sentiment rather than guaranteed voting outcomes.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The wahlrecht.de INSA table's newest entry is dated 13.10.2026. The five most recent INSA polls give AfD 30% (13.10), 30% (11.10), 30.5% (05.10), 30% (03.10) and 29.5% (29.09). The median of those five is 30.0%, which meets the ≥30.0% threshold as of now.
  Last updated: 13.10.2026 (latest poll publication date shown) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The question resolves on the 5 most recent polls published before Nov 15, 2026. INSA puts out about two polls a week, so the five that count will be roughly Nov 3–14, and none of them exist yet. AfD has risen steadily, from about 26% in early April to 29–30.5% since late September. The current median sits exactly on the 30.0% line, so the outcome is a knife-edge: if three of the last five polls come in at 29.5% or lower, it resolves No.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://time.com/article/2026/09/21/german-far-right-expands-gains-in-disaster-to-chancellor-merz/ (HTTP 200)

### code_execution (SUCCESS)
Code execution (Median of the 5 most recent INSA AfD readings and recent drift, computed only from values returned by resolution_source.):
  Output:
  no data

You are an elite superforecaster. Read ALL the research below — the raw tool outputs, the news bundle and the six research reports — and give one calibrated probability for this Metaculus binary question.

## Question
Will the AfD's national polling average in the INSA Sonntagsfrage be at least 30% on November 14, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Time Magazine: [German Far-Right Expands Gains in ‘Disaster’ State Elections for Chancellor Merz](https://time.com/article/2026/09/21/german-far-right-expands-gains-in-disaster-to-chancellor-merz/)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "7ab8e84440958419", "sheet_id": "30"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if the median of the most recent 5 polls of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) national polling share in the INSA Sonntagsfrage published before November 15, 2026 is greater than or equal to 30.0%, at the following link: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

## Fine Print
No other resolution source will be used, and this question will resolve exactly according to what is displayed by the resolution source.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The wahlrecht.de INSA table's newest entry is dated 13.10.2026. The five most recent INSA polls give AfD 30% (13.10), 30% (11.10), 30.5% (05.10), 30% (03.10) and 29.5% (29.09). The median of those five is 30.0%, which meets the ≥30.0% threshold as of now.
  Last updated: 13.10.2026 (latest poll publication date shown) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The question resolves on the 5 most recent polls published before Nov 15, 2026. INSA puts out about two polls a week, so the five that count will be roughly Nov 3–14, and none of them exist yet. AfD has risen steadily, from about 26% in early April to 29–30.5% since late September. The current median sits exactly on the 30.0% line, so the outcome is a knife-edge: if three of the last five polls come in at 29.5% or lower, it resolves No.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://time.com/article/2026/09/21/german-far-right-expands-gains-in-disaster-to-chancellor-merz/ (HTTP 200)

### code_execution (SUCCESS)
Code execution (Median of the 5 most recent INSA AfD readings and recent drift, computed only from values returned by resolution_source.):
  Output:
  no data

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-17; forecasting closes 2026-10-17; resolves 2026-11-16. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
10 AskNews articles (newest first; 4 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-16] German Federal Election Polls: Coalition Decline and Rise of AfD and BSW
OZ - Ostsee-Zeitung — https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/politik/umfragen-zu-parteien-aktuelle-trends-fuer-spd-union-afd-gruene-und-co-16-10-2026-462SFUR3SNBCLN3ACXRFNANNSE.html
  - Published on October 16, 2026, by OZ - Ostsee-Zeitung, the article analyzes German federal election polling trends ('Sonntagsfrage') conducted by institutes like Forsa and Infratest dimap.
  - The report details the trajectory of the 'Ampel' coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) following the 2021 election: the SPD initially led but was overtaken by the Union; the Greens' support peaked briefly before declining; and the FDP lost significant ground, failing to clear the 5% threshold in the 2025 Bundestag election.
  - The article identifies the AfD as the primary beneficiary of these losses, rising to become the second-strongest party in mid-2023 before losing some ground in early 2024.
  - Additionally, the new party BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) was polled for the first time during this period, narrowly missing the 5% mark.
  - The text notes that the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND) calculates a daily average of the previous ten surveys.

[2026-10-16] NRW Polling Data Shows CDU Decline and AfD Rise Ahead of Spring 2027 Election
News.de — https://www.news.de/politik/860100388/nrw-umfrage-cdu-verliert-deutlich-afd-legt-zu-landtagswahl-news-der-dpa-aktuell-zu-wahl-landtag-und-partei/1/
  - According to a new Insa poll conducted between October 6 and 13, 2026, the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has dropped to 26 percent, a decrease of 8 points from a survey conducted six months ago.
  - The AfD has risen to 21 percent, an increase of 4 points.
  - The SPD remains stable at 18 percent, while the Greens have gained one point to reach 16 percent.
  - The Left party has increased to 10 percent, and the FDP remains at 4 percent, likely failing to meet the 5 percent threshold, as does the BSW at 3 percent.
  - The poll indicates that the current ruling coalition of CDU and Greens no longer holds a majority and would require an additional coalition partner.
  - A contrasting Forsa poll from late September, commissioned by the 'Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger', showed the CDU at 29 percent and the AfD at 22 percent, which is approximately four times their share in the 2022 state election.
  - The state election in NRW is scheduled for the spring of 2027.

[2026-10-16] NRW CDU Polls Plummet: Wüst Faces Pressure Ahead of 2027 Election
Der Westen — https://www.derwesten.de/region/wuest-nrw-umfrage-afd-cdu-id302181674.html
  - According to a new INSA survey for 'Bild' published on October 16 2026, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) Minister President Armin Laschet (Wüst) of the CDU faces mounting pressure ahead of the April 25, 2027 state election.
  - The CDU's lead has shrunk significantly, dropping from 36 percent in November 2025 to 26 percent in the current poll, representing a loss of ten percentage points.
  - The far-right AfD has surged to 21 percent, while the SPD and Greens are locked in a close race for third place with 18 percent and 16 percent respectively.
  - The Left party has re-entered the polls at 10 percent, while the FDP is projected to fall below the threshold with 4 percent.
  - The article notes that a potential 'red-green-red' coalition (SPD, Greens, and The Left) could reach 44 percent, which is still short of a majority, as a CDU-AfD combination would theoretically hold 47 percent.
  - Despite this, the article suggests that a re-election for Wüst is no longer guaranteed.
  - The CDU is advised to campaign as a 'force of the center' against both the AfD and a potential left-wing alliance.
  - The text also speculates on Wüst's future, noting that without a 2027 victory, his potential rise to national leadership as a successor to Friedrich Merz would be unlikely.

[2026-10-03] AfD Reaches 30 Percent in Latest INSA Poll, Surpasses Union by 12 Points
Opposition 24 — https://opposition24.com/politik/afd-30-prozent-insa-union-18-prozent/
  - According to a new INSA Sunday survey published on October 3, 2026, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) has reached 30 percent, marking the first time the party has achieved this level of support.
  - The survey, conducted between September 28 and October 2, 2026, interviewed 1,202 individuals via telephone and online panel.
  - The CDU and CSU have fallen to 18 percent, creating a twelve-point gap between the two parties.
  - The SPD and the Greens each hold 14 percent, totaling 28 percent when combined, which is still below the AfD's 30 percent.
  - The Left party (Die Linke) stands at 10 percent, while the FDP and BSW each have 4 percent, falling short of the 5 percent threshold for Bundestag entry.
  - The remaining 6 percent is distributed among other parties.
  - The article describes this as a political slap for the current coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD, which together command only 32 percent, just two points ahead of the AfD alone.
  - This represents a significant shift from mid-April, when the AfD was at 26 percent and the Union at 25 percent, indicating a four-point gain for the AfD and a seven-point loss for the Union over the past six months.

[2026-10-03] AfD Surges to 30% in German Polling; Union Slumps to 18%
philosophia-perennis.com — https://philosophia-perennis.com/2026/10/03/afd-erstmals-bei-30-prozent-union-stuerzt-auf-18-prozent-ab/
  - According to a polling survey conducted by INSA for 'Bild am Sonntag' and published on October 3, 2026, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party reached 30% support in the 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday Question) for the first time, coinciding with the German Day of Unity.
  - The Union (CDU/CSU) dropped to 18%, creating a 12-point gap.
  - This represents a significant shift from the 2025 Bundestag election results, where the Union secured 28.5% and the AfD 20.8%.
  - The article notes that the Union's current standing is more than 10 percentage points below their 2025 election result, while the AfD is nearly 9 points higher.
  - The report attributes the Union's decline to the unpopularity of Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, describing him as 'unbelievable like no chancellor before him.' The text frames the AfD's rise as a trend that has developed over months, occurring despite campaigns by NGOs, media, unions, and church representatives against the party.

[2026-10-03] AfD Hits 30 Percent for First Time as Union Drops to 18 Percent in New Poll
T-online.de — https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_101464462/sonntagsfrage-afd-erreicht-30-prozent-cdu-und-csu-verlieren.html
  - According to a new 'Sonntagsfrage' (Sunday question) survey conducted by Insa for 'Bild am Sonntag' between September 28 and October 2, 2026, the AfD has reached 30 percent for the first time, while the Union (CDU and CSU) has dropped to 18 percent.
  - The survey, which interviewed 1,202 people, found that the SPD and the Greens each received 14 percent, the Left Party received 10 percent, and both the BSW and FDP received 4 percent, narrowly missing the parliamentary threshold.
  - Consequently, the current federal government coalition of Union and SPD holds only 32 percent of the vote, whereas a 'Red-Red-Green' coalition would command 38 percent.

[2026-09-19] Polls Show Tight SPD vs. AfD Race Ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Election
Augsburger Allgemeine — https://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/politik/umfragen-zur-landtagswahl-2026-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-aktuelle-umfrageergebnisse-24-115077275
  - The Landtag election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is scheduled for Sunday, September 20, 2026, a date set by the state government on July 29, 2025.
  - According to the Augsburger Allgemeine, the state is divided into 36 electoral districts, and voters will use two votes: one for a direct candidate and one for a party list, with the latter determining seat distribution.
  - A distinctive feature of this election is that 16- and 17-year-olds are eligible to vote, a right Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shares with only seven other German states.
  - Multiple polling institutes have released recent survey results indicating a tight race between the SPD and AfD.
  - The most recent poll, conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF on September 17, 2026, shows the SPD at 37 percent and the AfD at 36 percent.
  - Other polls from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forsa between July and September 2026 consistently place the SPD between 28 and 37 percent and the AfD between 35 and 38 percent.
  - Die Linke is projected to receive between 9 and 12 percent of the vote, while the CDU ranges from 6 to 10 percent.
  - The newly founded BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht), established in 2024, is projected to receive between 3 and 5 percent.
  - A total of 19 parties are contesting the election, including the six parties currently in the Landtag: SPD, AfD, CDU, Die Linke, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, and FDP.

[2026-08-30] Poll: One in Five Germans Would Leave if AfD Forms Government
watson.ch/ — https://www.watson.ch/!960941303
  - According to an Insa survey commissioned by 'Bild am Sonntag' and published on August 30, 2026, 47% of Germans believe it would be harmful if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came to power in Berlin, while 36% disagree.
  - The poll, conducted on August 27 and 28 among 1,001 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, found that 22% (approximately one in five) stated they would leave Germany if the AfD formed a government.
  - Although the AfD currently leads in voter preference, no other parliamentary party has offered a coalition with them.
  - The article notes that while several state branches of the AfD are classified by authorities as 'securely right-wing extremist,' the party has sued to block a similar classification for the federal party, with a decision pending.
  - The next federal election is scheduled for spring 2029.

[2026-08-15] Union Polling at 20% in Germany, Lowest Since October 2021
Wöchentlich — https://wochentlich.de/union-bei-insa-so-schwach-wie-seit-herbst-2021-nicht-mehr/
  - According to a weekly Insa survey conducted for 'Bild am Sonntag' and published on August 15, 2026, the CDU/CSU union (Union) is polling at 20% nationwide, its lowest level since October 2021 and a drop of one percentage point from the previous week.
  - This survey, which interviewed 1,203 people between August 10 and August 14, 2026, indicates a difficult outlook for the Union in a hypothetical federal election, despite hopes for better results in three upcoming state elections in September.
  - The Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the strongest party with 28%, followed by the Greens at 13%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Left (Linke) each at 12%, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) at 5%, which would be enough to enter the Bundestag.
  - The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is projected to miss the 5% threshold with 3%.
  - The three state elections are scheduled for September 6 in Saxony-Anhalt, and September 20 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin.

[2026-08-04] Insa Poll Predicts AfD Lead in Saxony-Anhalt Ahead of 2026 Election
Wöchentlich — https://wochentlich.de/wahlumfrage-gibt-prognose-ab-vier-parteien-zittern/
  - According to an Insa survey conducted on July 3, 2026, for the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election, the AfD leads with 41 percent, followed by the CDU with 23 percent and The Left with 13 percent.
  - The SPD is projected at six percent and the BSW at five percent, both clearing the five percent threshold, while the Greens, FDP, and other parties are tied at four percent and risk falling below the threshold.
  - Based on these figures, the CDU and SPD would only secure 27 seats combined, falling short of the 42 seats required for a majority according to the Dawum statistics portal.
  - While the AfD cannot achieve an absolute majority alone, it could form a coalition with any other party that clears the threshold.
  - The article notes that the survey was commissioned by the right-wing portal 'Nius' and cites the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, which warns that 'Sonntagsfrage' results reflect current sentiment rather than guaranteed voting outcomes.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- **[2026-10-13]** The wahlrecht.de INSA page, the resolution source, shows AfD at 30% in its newest row. That poll is an online one with 2,006 respondents, fielded 9–12 Oct, with Union 18.5, Greens 14, SPD 13.5, Linke 10, FDP 4.5, BSW 3.5 and others 6. I did not find an INSA poll dated 14–17 Oct. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- **[2026-10-13]** The five most recent INSA polls on wahlrecht.de are 30 (13 Oct), 30 (11 Oct), 30.5 (5 Oct), 30 (3 Oct) and 29.5 (29 Sep). The median of those five is 30.0%, which meets the threshold exactly. Dawum's INSA chronicle matches these figures. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm and https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- **[2026-10-03]** The 3 Oct poll (Bild am Sonntag, 28 Sep–2 Oct, n=1,202) was reported as the first time INSA put AfD at 30%. T-online and WiWo reported AfD at 30 and Union at 18, a 12-point gap. WiWo noted the Union was last under 19 in INSA's series, and that some other pollsters showed AfD up to four points lower. https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_101464462/sonntagsfrage-afd-erreicht-30-prozent-cdu-und-csu-verlieren.html and https://www.wiwo.de/politik/deutschland/umfragewerte-der-parteien-insa-umfrage-afd-bei-30-prozent-union-faellt-auf-18/100259492.html
- **[2026-10-05]** The 5 Oct online poll was the AfD's INSA high at 30.5%, with Union at 17.5. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- **[2026-10-13]** Reports on 13 Oct said the Union gained for the first time in eleven weeks in INSA's series, rising to 18.5. The AfD-Union gap is now 11.5 points. The AfD slipped 0.5 point in the 13 Oct poll as reported there (the wahlrecht table shows 30 on 11 Oct and 30 on 13 Oct, so the reported drop looks like a comparison with the 5 Oct poll). https://suaragarut.id/de/union-gewinnt-insa-umfrage-oktober-2026
- **[2026-10-11]** The Bild am Sonntag poll (5–9 Oct, TOM, n=1,207) had AfD at 30, Union at 19, FDP at 4 and BSW at 3. Others rose to 7. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/sonntagsfrage-mini-plus-fuer-die-union-doch-der-afd-vorsprung-bleibt-riesig-zr-94536548.html
- **[2026-09-29]** Before that, AfD was at 29.5 on 29 Sep, 29 on 26 Sep, 29.5 on 22 Sep and 29 on 20 Sep. From mid-May to mid-September INSA had AfD at 28–29 throughout, with no reading of 30 or above. Early 2026 readings were 25–26. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- **[2026-09-21]** Time reported the AfD expanding its gains in the 20 Sep state elections as a "disaster" for Merz. I did not fetch the article. The Wiwo piece (3 Oct) also refers to an AfD election triumph in Sachsen-Anhalt that put Merz in crisis. https://time.com/article/2026/09/21/german-far-right-expands-gains-in-disaster-to-chancellor-merz/
- **[2026-10-16]** An INSA poll for Bild in NRW showed CDU at 26 (down 8 from the earlier survey), AfD at 21 (up 4), SPD at 18 and Greens at 16. This is consistent with continued CDU weakness, but it is a state poll, not federal. https://dawum.de/Nordrhein-Westfalen/INSA/2026-10-16
- **[2026-10-13]** INSA's potential analysis (max potential): AfD 37%, SPD 36.5%, Union 33.5%. AfD's potential is up 4 points since November 2025. Stated margin of error is about ±2.5 points. INSA publishes twice weekly, a Tuesday online poll and a Saturday/Sunday TOM poll. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/ and https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/umfrage-afd-verliert-union-holt-auf-doch-merz-kann-sich-nur-bedingt-freuen-zr-94538480.html
- **[2026-10-13]** Other pollsters are lower than INSA. ZDF Politbarometer (reported around 10 Oct) had AfD 28 and Union 21. YouGov had the Union at 18 in mid-September, and GMS had AfD at 30. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/sonntagsfrage-mini-plus-fuer-die-union-doch-der-afd-vorsprung-bleibt-riesig-zr-94536548.html
- **[2026-10-17]** The wahlrecht.de page notes that BSW was renamed "Bündnis Soziale Gerechtigkeit und Wirtschaftliche Vernunft" on 1 Oct 2026. This is a labelling change only. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- **Mechanics:** the resolution takes the median of the five latest polls published before 15 Nov. About 8–9 more INSA polls will be published between now and then, so the window will be entirely new polls. The median is 30.0 only if at least three of the last five are 30 or higher. Readings come in 0.5-point steps, and INSA has had AfD at exactly 30 in 3 of its last 5 polls.

BOTTOM LINE: As of 17 Oct the resolution source's five-poll median is exactly 30.0%, with INSA's AfD readings at 29.5–30.5 over the last 2.5 weeks and the Union only slightly rebounding. The outcome sits right on the threshold and will depend on whether AfD holds 30 or slips back to 29–29.5 over the next four weeks.

NOT FOUND: INSA polls published 14–17 Oct (the Saturday 17 Oct poll was not yet visible). The full text of the Time article. Any scheduled event before 14 Nov that would clearly move national numbers.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-13] The five most recent INSA polls on wahlrecht.de are AfD 30.0 (13.10), 30.0 (11.10), 30.5 (05.10), 30.0 (03.10) and 29.5 (29.09). Their median is 30.0, so the question currently sits exactly on the threshold. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] INSA publishes about twice a week: an online poll of about 2,000 people (Mon/Tue) and a phone/online mix of about 1,200 (Fri–Sun). Roughly 10 more releases are likely before Nov 15, so the "last 5" window will be wholly new data. The median needs at least 3 of those 5 readings at 30.0 or higher. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-13] INSA's AfD series was 25–26 in Jan–Mar 2026 and 26–28 in Apr–May. It reached 29 in mid-May and held at 28–29 from May to September. It was 29.0–29.5 from 8 Sept to 29 Sept. The first 30.0 came on 03.10, and the first 30.5 on 05.10. Before October the series never reached 30, and INSA's own 5-poll median has not been at or above 30 before. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-13] The latest reading (13.10) was AfD 30.0 and Union 18.5. The Union gained 0.5 for the first time in eleven weeks, while the AfD was flat on the previous poll. The 30.5 on 05.10 looks like a local peak, and the last three polls were 30.0 or just under. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/2026-10-13/
- [2026-10-17] INSA is the high-end pollster. Latest AfD figures by pollster: GMS 30 (14.09), YouGov 29 (15.09), Allensbach 28 (24.09), Verian 28 (25.09), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 28 (08.10), Infratest dimap 27 (01.10), Forsa 26 (13.10). INSA's house effect is therefore +2 to +4 against Forsa and Infratest, and INSA's level is not corroborated elsewhere. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
- [2026-10-17] Aggregators put the cross-pollster average at about 27.8–28.4% (bundestagwahlumfrage.de 27.8; wahl-umfragen.de 28.3; politische-stimmung.de 28.0). That is 2 points below INSA's level. This suggests INSA's 30 sits above the consensus and could drift back toward 29 if the Union stabilises. https://bundestagwahlumfrage.de/bundestag/
- [2026-10-06 to 2026-10-13] Forsa had the AfD at 26 for three straight weeks (29.09, 06.10, 13.10), with the Left up to 12. Other pollsters show no AfD breakout comparable to INSA's, so the late-September/October rise is not clearly visible outside INSA. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/Forsa/
- [2026-10-13] Past INSA behaviour (reference class): in the 5-month window from 16.05 to 26.09 the AfD sat in a 28.0–29.5 band with no reading above 29.5. Week-to-week moves are usually 0–1 point and rarely exceed 1.5. A one-month change in the 5-poll median of at least 1.0 happened a few times in 2026, for example 26 to 28 in April and 28 to 29 in May. The median has shown momentum, not mean reversion, since March: 25 (Mar), 28 (Apr–May), 29 (Jun–Sep), 30 (Oct). https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-03] Reports say the 30% reading on 03.10 (Bild am Sonntag) was the first national 30 in INSA, and the first in any national poll per the 20min.ch report. It is read as a milestone and a record low for the Union at 18. Context: the Union–SPD coalition has only about 32% and Merz's approval is poor (79% dissatisfied in the INSA/Bild report). https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_101464462/sonntagsfrage-afd-erreicht-30-prozent-cdu-und-csu-verlieren.html
- [2026-09-21] Backdrop: Time reports AfD gains in the September state elections. INSA polls put the AfD at 43% in Sachsen-Anhalt and 40% in Brandenburg. A fresh INSA NRW poll (16.10) has the CDU down 8 to 26 and the AfD up 4 to 21. Momentum is broadly in the AfD's favour. https://politmonitor.de/institut/insa
- [2026-10-17] I found no betting-market odds or expert forecasts on whether INSA will reach 30 by 14 November. Statistically, INSA's quoted average deviation from election results is ±1.56 points (dawum). https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/

BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is a poll series sitting exactly at the threshold, with a median of 30.0 on a short upward run that has persisted for about 2 weeks. INSA also runs 2–4 points above other pollsters, and the 5-poll median has never been at or above 30 before. The outcome is close to a coin flip on the numbers, with slight persistence in favour of Yes unless the Union keeps recovering from 18.5.

NOT FOUND: Betting or prediction-market odds for this specific threshold, expert forecasts for November, and an INSA poll published after 13.10.2026.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-17] The wahlrecht.de INSA table, which I fetched, shows no row after 13.10. The five-poll median is still 30.0. It is built from 30 / 30 / 30.5 / 30 / 29.5, so it sits exactly on the threshold. The window will turn over fully. The table also shows that AfD has been at 29–29.5 in 6 of the 8 polls from 8.09 to 29.09. Driver 1 is therefore whether the early-October step-up of about +0.75 persists. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

- [2026-10-17] Most of the AfD's INSA movement comes from the Union's decline. INSA's Union series fell from 20 (12.09) to 17.5 (5.10), then recovered to 18.5–19. INSA's "Others" were 6–7. The AfD reading therefore tracks Union weakness. A Union recovery of about 1 point would plausibly cost the AfD about 0.5 point. That is the main route to No. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

- [2026-10-11] INSA chief Binkert attributed the Union's small gain to the SPD electorate's rejection of a red-green-red alliance led by Die Linke in Berlin. He also said AfD+Union would reach 49%. This points to a cause of Union movement that is not about Merz. Berlin coalition talks are a live driver the INSA head himself cites. https://nius.de/nachrichten/afd-haelt-30-19-abstand-zur-union-stabil

- [2026-10-13] Forsa's weekly poll had AfD at 26 for the third week in a row and Union at 19. Forsa reports 25% non-voters and undecideds (+1). Among 2025 Union voters who have left the party, 37% say they would not vote at all and only 18% name the AfD. The Union's losses are not all flowing to the AfD. That caps the AfD upside outside INSA's weighting, which lifts the AfD more than Forsa's does. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/politik/forsa-union-bleibt-mit-19-prozent-hinter-afd-zurueck/70314560

- [2026-10-13] The Forsa piece cites a ZDF report of 11.10 on a CDU leadership retreat after the "Wahl-Debakel" and "Merz in schwerer Krise". This is a possible mechanism for a leadership or course change, a Union-side shock that could rally or split the Union. Whether a leadership challenge is under way is not confirmed in these sources. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/politik/forsa-union-bleibt-mit-19-prozent-hinter-afd-zurueck/70314560

- [2026-10-05] Government drivers: the Union and SPD are in open dispute over the income-tax reform (first reading in the Bundestag the week of 5.10), the sugar levy, the 2027 budget, and pension decisions Merz wants by year-end. Merz publicly demanded the coalition "stay together". A coalition committee had no published agenda. Unresolved quarrels or a coalition crisis would keep the Union low. A visible deal could lift it. https://presse.online/2026/10/05/merz-koalition-streit-ueber-haushalt-und-steuerreform/

- [2026-10-13] The cross-institute mean of 8 institutes was AfD 28.2 and Union 19.9 (13.10). The October mean for AfD is 28.4 against 22.2 in March 2025. The Union's monthly mean fell 1.1 points against September. The AfD is rising in the broader polling average too, but about 2 points under INSA. INSA at 30 is a consistent house-effect high, not an outlier from a single poll. https://bundestagswahl-2029.com/umfragen/

- [2026-10-13] The INSA 13.10 poll was online with n=2,006. INSA's AfD figure came in 0.5 under the 5.10 poll of the same online type (30.5 to 30), so comparison across the two series is cleaner. The online series ran 29 (20.09), 29.5 (22.09), 29.5 (29.09), 30.5 (5.10) and 30 (13.10). The TOM series ran 29 (26.09), 30 (3.10) and 30 (11.10). Neither series has fallen below 30 since 3.10. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/

- [2026-10-17] Sequence needed for Yes: (1) the 18.10 TOM and 20.10 online polls hold AfD at 30 or above; (2) no Union rebound beyond about 19.5 and no SPD or Linke consolidation that pulls AfD to 29.5; (3) at least three of the five polls published through 14.11 (about 10 will appear by then) stay at 30 or higher. Nothing in the retrieved sources identifies a scheduled event before 14.11 that would force a break. The Berlin and coalition-reform news cycle is the main uncontrolled input. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

- [2026-10-13] The other drivers are named but not quantified. The Forsa competence scores had AfD at 14% and Union at 9%, with 55% trusting no party. This points to an anti-government mood with no obvious catalyst for a Union rebound. The structural signal is that dissatisfaction is broad and Union voters are going to non-voting, which INSA's weighting reduces. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/politik/forsa-union-bleibt-mit-19-prozent-hinter-afd-zurueck/70314560

BOTTOM LINE: The outcome depends mainly on the Union's trajectory (18.5–19 now, after a low of 17.5), which in INSA's series moves almost one-for-one against the AfD. Persistence of the 30 plateau is plausible given the broad anti-government mood, but the median has no cushion and the AfD was at 29–29.5 in 6 of 8 INSA polls before October.

NOT FOUND: Any INSA poll published after 13.10. The 14–17.10 Politbarometer or Deutschlandtrend, and the 17.10 Saturday INSA poll. A scheduled national event before 14.11 that would clearly shift numbers. Confirmation that a CDU leadership challenge is under way. The Time article's text.

### EXPERT VIEW
Current state of the resolution source. The latest five INSA polls on wahlrecht.de are 13.10 (30), 11.10 (30), 05.10 (30.5), 03.10 (30) and 29.09 (29.5). Their median is 30.0, which is exactly on the threshold, so there is no cushion.

- [2026-10-13] wahlrecht.de, INSA page (fetched). INSA AfD readings: 13.10 = 30 (online, 2,006 respondents, field 9–12.10); 11.10 = 30 (T/O mix, 1,207); 05.10 = 30.5; 03.10 = 30; 29.09 = 29.5; 26.09 = 29; 22.09 = 29.5; 20.09 = 29. INSA's AfD figure was 28–29 from July to early September and 25–27 in March–April. The median of the last five is 30.0, so "≥30.0" currently holds. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] Apollo News. The 13.10 INSA poll gave the AfD 30 for the fourth time in a row, with the Union back at 18.5 after 19 on 11.10. A seat projection gives the AfD 220 of 630 seats. https://apollo-news.net/afd-bleibt-bei-30-prozent-union-sinkt-wieder-ab/
- [2026-10-03] dpa via 20min.ch (fetched). The AfD reached 30 in INSA for the first time on 3 Oct, with the Union at 18. INSA head Hermann Binkert, a former CDU politician, said Union and SPD "will not be able to turn this negative trend substantially". Binkert is the only named expert view I found. 79% are dissatisfied with the government. Other institutes had already shown similar levels: GMS had the AfD at 30 in mid-September, and YouGov had the Union at 18. https://www.20min.ch/story/bundesweite-zahlen-umfrage-zeigt-afd-ist-jetzt-volkspartei-cdu-auf-rekordtief-103643503
- [2026-10-03] TRT/dpa. INSA gives a maximum error margin of ±2.9 points. dpa notes that more recent polls from other institutes have the AfD up to four points lower and the Union up to five higher. https://www.trtdeutsch.com/article/534ab997cf9f
- [2026-10-13] Other pollsters, October 2026 (bundestagwahlumfrage.de, fetched). AfD: Forsa 26 (13.10, 06.10), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 28 (08.10), Ipsos 28 (08.10), Infratest dimap 27 (01.10), YouGov 29 (15.09). Their unweighted average is 27.8. INSA is the highest of the regular institutes (a house effect of about +2 to +4 points versus Forsa and Infratest). https://bundestagwahlumfrage.de/bundestag/
- [2026-10-13] Wikipedia dynamic average (Forsa, INSA and YouGov only) is 28.0 for the AfD, with the Union at 19.6. Wikipedia's poll table also lists Allensbach 28 (24.09), Verian 28 (22.09), GMS 30 (14.09) and pollytix 27 (16.09). https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_22._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen
- [2026-10-12] politpro.eu shows its latest national reading as INSA, AfD 30.0. It describes the ruling coalition as divided over pensions and inheritance tax, with record-low approval. https://politpro.eu/en/germany
- [2026-10-16] INSA NRW poll for Bild: AfD 21 (+4 versus May) and CDU 26 (−8). This is a supporting sign of momentum against the CDU, not a national figure. https://dawum.de/Nordrhein-Westfalen/INSA/2026-10-16
- [2026-09-21] State-level context. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the AfD doubled its vote to 38%. Time called the September state elections a "disaster" for Merz (the Time article itself was not fetched). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election
- [2026-10-13] A separate bundestagwahlumfrage.de page notes the AfD range across institutes is 26 to 30. https://bundestagwahlumfrage.de/bundestag/sonntagsfrage/
- [2026-10-08] Prediction markets. Polymarket's German elections hub lists only state-level contracts (Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, AfD in a state government). Earlier Kalshi and Polymarket markets covered Saxony-Anhalt state results. I found no market on the AfD's national INSA or federal poll level. https://polymarket.com/predictions/german-elections
- [2026-10-16] Press commentary, no forecast. The Ostsee-Zeitung piece describes AfD gains and notes that RND computes a daily average of ten surveys. No analyst forecast of the AfD's INSA level for 14 November was found. https://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/politik/umfragen-zu-parteien-aktuelle-trends-fuer-spd-union-afd-gruene-und-co-16-10-2026-462SFUR3SNBCLN3ACXRFNANNSE.html

BOTTOM LINE: INSA's five-poll median for the AfD is exactly 30.0 today. INSA is the high outlier among institutes (other pollsters 26–29, average about 28). The only expert quote found, from INSA's chief, says the negative trend for the government parties will not reverse, but no market or published forecast covers this metric, and the 30 figure sits right on the threshold. Because INSA rounds to 0.5 and polls twice a week, a small dip (for example 29.5 in three of the last five) would flip the outcome.

NOT FOUND: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus markets on the national AfD or INSA poll level. Any published expert or analyst forecast for the AfD's INSA figure in November. The Time article was not opened, and no Politbarometer or Deutschlandtrend commentary was retrieved.

### YES CASE
YES means: the median AfD figure across the 5 most recent INSA Sonntagsfrage polls published before 15 Nov 2026 on wahlrecht.de is ≥30.0%.

- [2026-10-17] I re-fetched the wahlrecht.de INSA table. Its newest row is 13.10 (AfD 30), followed by 11.10 (30), 05.10 (30.5), 03.10 (30) and 29.09 (29.5). The median is 30.0, so the question already resolves YES on today's data. The table has no row dated 14–17 Oct. The AfD's INSA series before October ran 29.0–29.5 from 8 Sept to 29 Sept. Over those weeks every AfD reading was ≥29 and the last four readings were ≥29.5. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-17] The same table shows no INSA AfD reading below 28 since mid-May. The 5-poll median only needs three of five readings at 30 or more. The AfD gap to the Union is wide: 11.5 points at 18.5, against 8–9 points in mid-September. The Union fell from 20–20.5 in early September to 17.5–19 in October. The AfD has been at or above 29 in every INSA poll since 12 Sept. The table also shows the AfD at 28 in some Aug polls, with a 0.5–1 point step up since then. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-12] NZZ (fetched) describes a CDU leadership crisis after the Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern defeats. In MV the CDU missed the Landtag for the first time in its history. NZZ says ARD-Deutschlandtrend shows only about one in ten satisfied with Merz. It also says "first institutes" put the Union below 20 in October. Mechanism for YES: no near-term fix for the Union's standing. https://www.nzz.ch/deutschland/politik/cdu-im-stimmungstief-mit-entlastungen-sucht-merz-den-befreiungsschlag-ld.10031483
- [2026-10-12] Merz's relaunch package (cutting the electricity tax to the EU minimum) is conditional on growth forecasts coming true, so it will not produce relief before mid-November. The pension reform is still not launched. Labour minister Bas resigned on 12 Oct, an additional government shock. Successor Schweitzer is not expected to speed reforms. NZZ says the Union–SPD coalition is split on many disputes. Next real electoral test is NRW in April 2027, outside the window. https://www.nzz.ch/deutschland/politik/cdu-im-stimmungstief-mit-entlastungen-sucht-merz-den-befreiungsschlag-ld.10031483
- [2026-10-07] Webnachrichten/Merkur reports political scientist Lembcke saying the coalition is in a "downward spiral". He says the 7 Oct coalition committee was about whether SPD and Union can govern together at all. A coalition rupture or leadership fight before 14 Nov would likely keep the AfD at 30 or higher in INSA. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/krisengipfel-der-merz-koalition-kein-vertrauen-mehr-an-der-spitze-zr-94527586.html
- [2026-10-13] The Dawum record for the 13.10 poll shows AfD 30.0 (±0 vs 11.10). The Union was 18.5 (−0.5) in dawum's own comparison. The AfD vs 2025 result is +9.2. In the potential analysis, AfD is the highest of the parties. So the 30.0 is stable across two consecutive polls of different modes (TOM n=1,207 and online n=2,006), not a one-off. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-03] The Berliner Zeitung piece in the search shows the 3 Oct headline "AfD kratzt an der 30-Prozent-Marke". It reports the AfD at 29 with Union 19 in the 25 Sept TOM wave. Greens at 15, their best INSA result since Sept 2023. This shows the Union's collapse is not mainly flowing to one rival. The Greens, SPD and Left share the gains, which splits the anti-AfD vote. That lowers the chance of a consolidating rival. https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/article/insa-umfrage-union-rutscht-auf-19-prozent-10434825
- [2026-10-13] On the pollster side, INSA publishes twice weekly and uses the same Bild-commissioned method throughout. There is no sign of an INSA methodology change. wahlrecht.de's only note concerns the BSW renaming effective 1 Oct. That means INSA's higher AfD level versus other firms is a persistent house effect rather than noise. The 29.0–30.5 band since September can persist. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-16] The INSA NRW poll for Bild (fielded 6–13 Oct) has the CDU down 8 points to 26 and AfD up to 21, a first-time 20%+ result there. So the CDU slide is still visible in INSA's own newest fieldwork, from the same week as the national 30s. https://apollo-news.net/wst-cdu-bricht-ein-union-in-nrw-nur-noch-fnf-prozent-vor-der-afd/
- [2026-10-17] Most likely path to YES: the AfD stays at 30 (or within 29.5–30.5) in INSA through early November. The Union stays at about 18–19.5 with no new Merz crisis resolution. Three of the last five readings by 14 Nov are then ≥30. Prerequisite: no substantial Union rebound. The 13.10 Union gain of 0.5 was the first rise in eleven weeks, so a rebound is not yet a trend. The AfD would have to avoid more than 0.5 points of slippage in most polls. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

BOTTOM LINE: The resolution table already gives a 30.0 median, so YES is the status quo, and the AfD has held 30 or higher in four of the last five INSA polls. It needs only mild persistence through a government in visible trouble, since the lowest case is a median of 30.0 with no cushion. This is the strongest-YES reading and does not show a margin above the threshold.

NOT FOUND: any INSA poll published 14–17 Oct (the Saturday 17 Oct release was not yet visible); the full text of the Time article; any forecast or market on the INSA AfD level for 14 Nov; any scheduled event before 14 Nov that would clearly move national numbers.

### NO CASE
YES means: the median AfD share of the five most recent INSA polls published before 15 Nov 2026 on wahlrecht.de is 30.0% or higher.

This is the case for NO only. The question sits on the threshold, so the NO case is mostly arithmetic.

- [2026-10-17] The median must reach 30.0 in a window made entirely of new polls. The wahlrecht.de table I fetched shows the current top five as 30, 30, 30.5, 30, 29.5. Because INSA publishes about twice a week, all five of those will have rolled off by 14 Nov. Today's median therefore carries almost no information about the window. The question is whether three or more of the last five polls, roughly those from 3–13 Nov, print 30 or higher. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-17] Every extra-threshold run is recent. Looking at the full fetched table, AfD sat at 28–29.5 on every INSA row from 12 May to 29 Sep (about 4.5 months). The first 30 came on 3 Oct. Three of the 30s are within 10 days, and one of those, the 30.5, is a single poll. The only comparable earlier peak was 28.5 on 11 Aug, which reverted to 28. Reverting to 29–29.5 would resolve NO. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] The 13 Oct poll shows the AfD flat at 30 while the Union, SPD, FDP and BSW all gained or held. Binkert, INSA's head, explained the Union's small rise on 11 Oct. He said SPD voters who dislike a left-led red-green-red Berlin Senate will move to CDU/CSU. If the Berlin coalition talks continue to dominate news, that mechanism could keep working against the AfD. This is a mechanism he offered, not a forecast. https://nius.de/nachrichten/afd-haelt-30-19-abstand-zur-union-stabil
- [2026-10-13] The AfD has not gained since 5 Oct. Its INSA readings have gone 30.5, then 30, 30 and 30, with the Union at 17.5, 18, 19 and 18.5. The drift in the leader's share is flat to slightly down, and the Union's recovery is its first in eleven weeks. A further half-point slip would put AfD readings at 29.5, which would resolve NO. https://dawum.de/Bundestag/INSA/
- [2026-10-13] Forsa had the AfD at 26 for the third week running (29 Sep, 6 Oct, 13 Oct), with the Union at 19 and the Left at 12. Forsa shows no AfD rise through the period when INSA rose from 29 to 30. The gap between Forsa and INSA is 4 points. The Forsa fieldwork was 6–12 Oct, which overlaps INSA's October peak. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/merz-verliert-so-viel-rueckhalt-in-der-union-wie-nie-zuvor-umfrage-zr-94540246.html
- [2026-10-17] The politpro weighted average across institutes is 27.9% for the AfD. Its 3-month gain is only +0.3, against the 1 point or more INSA shows over the same period. INSA is 2 points above the cross-institute consensus, so a convergence over the next four weeks pulls INSA down. A move up by the others would be needed for INSA to hold at 30. https://politpro.eu/de/deutschland
- [2026-10-17] The AfD's non-voter pool seems to be moving to others and the Left, not the AfD. In the 13 Oct poll, the Left sits at 10, Greens 14, and the potential analysis is unchanged in absolute terms. In Forsa, undecided and non-voters are 25%, up 1 point, and the Left gains to 12. Disaffected voters are going to the Left and Greens, and the AfD's gain is not accelerating. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/merz-verliert-so-viel-rueckhalt-in-der-union-wie-nie-zuvor-umfrage-zr-94540246.html
- [2026-10-17] There is a technical risk in how the figure is read. The resolution takes the displayed median of the last five rows. Half-point rounding means that a run of 29.5, 30, 29.5, 30, 29.5 gives a median of 29.5 and resolves NO. INSA moves in 0.5 steps, so a drift of just 0.5 in the central tendency decides it. There is no cushion at all. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm
- [2026-10-13] Merz's ratings are at record lows: 87% dissatisfied in the Forsa/RTL poll, 65% expecting him to leave office early. Yet this has not lifted INSA's AfD figure above 30.5. INSA's Union figure of 18–19 is also close to the Union's floor in other pollsters, where it is 19–21. That limits further AfD gains from Union losses, which supports a plateau, not a rise. https://www.webnachrichten.de/politik/merz-verliert-so-viel-rueckhalt-in-der-union-wie-nie-zuvor-umfrage-zr-94540246.html
- [2026-10-17] The Saturday 17 Oct INSA poll was not yet on the wahlrecht.de page I fetched, whose newest row is 13 Oct. I found no scheduled national event before 14 Nov that would clearly push the AfD up. A "status quo" outcome is therefore drift around 29.5–30, where small noise decides the result. https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is that INSA's 30 is a two-week plateau after 4.5 months at 29.5 or below. INSA also sits 2–4 points above Forsa, Infratest and the cross-institute average, and the Union has just made its first INSA gain in eleven weeks. With no cushion and 0.5-point steps, even a small reversion to 29.5 in three of the five relevant polls resolves NO.

NOT FOUND: INSA polls published after 13 Oct, including the 17 Oct poll. The Time article text. Any market or expert forecast for INSA's November level. Any scheduled event before 14 Nov that would move national numbers.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources above show the resolving condition ALREADY met (or already impossible) as of today? If so, say which source and price it at the cap. Otherwise, name what would still have to happen and by when (the RESOLUTION date).
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market, treat its price as a strong, well-calibrated prior and name the specific evidence the market lacks whenever you land more than ~15 percentage points from it. A RELATED market (different deadline, threshold or resolution) is context only — do not anchor on it. If no market is listed, there is none on this question; do not assume one.
- **Anchor on the resolution source.** If the evidence includes a RESOLUTION SOURCE block, the question resolves on what THAT page shows, not on what the world does. If it says the resolving condition is already met, the correct probability is at the cap (0.97-0.98); if definitively unmet with no path left, 0.02-0.03. Otherwise its current state is your status quo, and the gap between the source and reality (lagging updates, different metric, classification rules) is a first-class risk to price explicitly, not a footnote at 5%.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, list it in unverified_claims (it will be checked) and keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (0) (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>",
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move p_yes by 10+ points if false; [] if none>"]
}