How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?

- [2026-10-13] DPIC's Outcomes of Death Warrants page (last updated Oct 13) says 58 execution dates were set for 2026 by 9 states and the US Military. It shows 31 executions carried out and 19 warrants inactive. The DPIC execution database and upcoming-executions pages carry the same Oct 13 update stamp. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-13] Florida executed James Robertson, its 17th of 2026. Per EFE, DPIC counts 31 US executions so far. The question text puts the Oct 7 Texas execution (Jamaal Howard) at 30, so Robertson makes 31. https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
- [2026-10-13] DPIC lists 8 remaining 2026 executions. Oct 20 FL Reaves; Nov 5 IN Weisheit, AL Taylor, FL Guardado; Nov 12 TX Rubio, OK Pavatt; Nov 19 TX Dennes; Dec 3 Military Hasan. That would give a ceiling of 39 on current warrants. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-08/09] The question text says nine were scheduled from Oct 13 on. The ninth was Florida's William Lee Thompson (Oct 13). DeSantis withdrew his warrant, the first withdrawal of his tenure, citing no reason. The defense says Thompson has dementia. The AP did not say whether a new date will be sought. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/florida-execution-called-off-after-desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-the-first-time/
- [2026-09-30] Tennessee's Christa Pike survived two pentobarbital attempts. DPIC's header links to ongoing Pike updates. Gov. Lee ordered a third-party review and suspended executions. Tennessee has no further 2026 dates on DPIC's list. https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
- [2026-09-18/20] DeSantis signed his 18th warrant of 2026, for William Reaves (77), set for Oct 20. Florida has 17 executions this year (record is 19 in 2025). Reaves and Guardado would make 19. https://www.fox13news.com/news/florida-death-row-gov-desantis-signs-18th-death-warrant-2026
- [2026-10-14] Oklahoma's Pardon and Parole Board voted 3-2 against clemency for James Pavatt (Nov 12). Gov. Stitt cannot intervene after that vote. Oklahoma has 2 executions so far this year. https://www.kosu.org/james-pavatt-clemency-denied
- [2026-10-13] Military: Nidal Hasan's firing-squad execution is set for Dec 3 at Fort Hood. Hegseth said it will be live-streamed. This is a legally novel, high-profile event. DPIC lists it as scheduled. Per the question's fine print, military executions count even if DPIC omits them. https://www.brian-lehrer-show-summary (see AskNews item; DPIC list confirms date) https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia's scheduled-executions list shows 9 for 2026 as of Oct 7 (Texas 2, Florida 3 including Thompson, AL 1, IN 1, OK 1, Military 1). Oct 13 had Florida's 2 slated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-15] Texas has Rubio (Nov 12) and Dennes (Nov 19) left. I found no stay reports for either. Alabama's Taylor is Nov 5. Earlier in 2026 the Supreme Court blocked Alabama's nitrogen-gas method for Jeffery Lee (June 11), and Alabama sought lethal injection instead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-03-10] Alabama's governor commuted Charles Burton's sentence before his Mar 12 date. Of 58 dates set, 19 became inactive through reprieves, commutations or stays, a base rate of about one-third. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-15] No 2026 execution has occurred since Robertson on Oct 13. DPIC's count of 31 stands as of today. Florida's Reaves (Oct 20) is the next date.

BOTTOM LINE: The count stands at 31, with 8 executions scheduled and a ceiling of 39 on current warrants. Florida may add more warrants, though new warrants usually need about 30 days' notice, so any added after mid-November are unlikely to be carried out before Dec 31. The realistic range is 31 plus however many of the 8 go ahead.

NOT FOUND: DPIC's full execution-database list for 2026. Any reported stays for Reaves, Guardado, Weisheit, Taylor, Rubio or Dennes. Any new 2026 warrants beyond the 8. Any change in the Tennessee suspension beyond Oct 13.

- [2026-10-13] DPI shows 31 executions carried out in 2026 as of Oct 13. That figure appears to include Florida's James Robertson, executed Oct 13. Of 58 execution dates set by 9 states and the military for 2026, 19 are inactive and 8 remain active. The floor is therefore 31 and the ceiling is 39. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-13] The 8 remaining 2026 dates are: Oct 20 FL Reaves; Nov 5 IN Weisheit, AL Taylor and FL Guardado; Nov 12 TX Rubio and OK Pavatt; Nov 19 TX Dennes; Dec 3 military Hasan. Ohio warrants in 2027 and later are not expected to be carried out. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-13] The SMU pending-executions list marks all 8 remaining 2026 dates as "serious", meaning more likely to proceed. That list also warns that stays can come at the last moment. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [2026-10-13] Warrant conversion so far in 2026: 31 of 58 dates were executed. Most of the 19 inactive dates were Ohio (DeWine reprieves) and Pennsylvania (Shapiro reprieves). Others were an Alabama commutation (Burton) and Tennessee halts. So the conversion rate for dates in states that actually carry out executions is much higher than 31/58. The Wikipedia 2026 list also shows Florida's Hitchcock execution stayed on Mar 31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-13] Florida has done 17 executions in 2026, against 19 in 2025. DeSantis paused William Thompson (dementia claim) and one Oct 13 double execution became a single one. Reaves (age 77) lost in circuit court and has appealed to the Florida Supreme Court. Clemency was requested, and the execution stands unless a court or DeSantis intervenes. Guardado (Nov 5) is the other Florida date. https://www.wflx.com/2026/10/08/i-love-him-family-death-row-inmate-william-reaves-pleads-clemency-ahead-oct-20-execution/?outputType=amp
- [2026-10-01] Tennessee's governor halted the remaining 2026 Tennessee executions after the failed Pike lethal injection. Sutton's Dec 3 date is on hold, so Tennessee adds no more 2026 executions. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/01/nx-s1-5986822/tennessee-governor-halts-executions
- [2026-10-08] Texas executed Jamaal Howard on Oct 7 with the same pentobarbital protocol, despite the Pike failure. Texas has Rubio (Nov 12) and Dennes (Nov 19) scheduled; the TDCJ page lists both as of Oct 8. https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/death_row/scheduled_executions.html
- [2026-10-12] The Hasan date (Dec 3, firing squad) is the least certain. DPI notes he can seek civilian federal habeas review, which could delay the execution indefinitely. Reports say the administration was debating the livestream, and he has not said whether he will file. It would be the first military execution since 1961. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/nidal-hasan-may-be-executed-on-december-3-by-firing-squad-first-military-execution-in-65-years
- [2026-10-14] Prior-year anchors: 2025 had 47 executions (the most since 2009) and Florida had 19. 2023 had 24 and 1999 had 98. https://davisvanguard.org/2026/08/three-executions-scheduled-thursday/
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia counted 9 scheduled for 2026 as of Oct 7, and Robertson (now done) was one of them. No further 2026 warrants beyond the 8 above are listed. Late additions are possible but unlikely. Texas and Florida normally give 30 or more days' notice, and Florida's warrants have run about 30 days ahead (Reaves was signed Sep 18 for Oct 20). A Florida warrant signed by late October could still land in December. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States

BOTTOM LINE: The base rate points to a final total of 31 plus most of the 8 scheduled dates, probably 36 to 39. Florida, Texas, Alabama, Indiana and Oklahoma dates usually go ahead, with some risk of stays or clemency. The Hasan execution is the likeliest to slip. A last-minute Florida warrant could add one more, though none is listed yet.

NOT FOUND: Any published odds or forecast-market prices for the total. The Indiana (Weisheit), Alabama (Taylor) and Oklahoma (Pavatt) litigation or clemency status. Any new Florida warrant for December.

- [2026-10-14] The Florida Supreme Court unanimously affirmed denial of postconviction relief for William Reaves (77) and refused to stay his warrant. It held his clemency and lethal-injection claims barred or meritless. Remaining routes are a US Supreme Court stay request and DeSantis, who withdrew one warrant this year (the Thompson dementia case) and has not intervened in any other. Reaves (Oct 20) is the nearest date and the state-court route is exhausted. https://www.tampafp.com/no-way-out-florida-justices-greenlight-execution-for-1986-deputy-killer/
- [2026-10-05] Jesse Guardado's warrant (Nov 5) was issued on Oct 5. The Florida Supreme Court's standard schedule runs from circuit court on Oct 19 to a reply brief on Oct 24. That leaves about 11 days for a ruling before Nov 5, the same pace that cleared Reaves. A Florida substack tracker counts 20 warrants this year; with one withdrawn, 19 would match the record only if both remaining dates proceed. Florida's warrant-to-execution process is routinely fast and rarely fails. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-jesse-guardados-execution
- [2026-10-15] Weisheit (IN, Nov 5): the Indiana Supreme Court refused to delay the clemency hearings (interview Oct 16, testimony Oct 19). Their order does not decide the motion to move the execution to Nov 19. The delay request is for 14 days only and would stay inside 2026. A federal judge approved funding for brain scans but said she lacked power to order transport. Governor Braun decides clemency after the hearings; this is the main Indiana risk. https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/15/indiana-supreme-court-wont-delay-upcoming-clemency-hearings-death-row-inmate/
- [2026-10-13] Weisheit's lawyers described the requested postponement as "narrow", which suggests they are not seeking an open-ended stay. Indiana lawmakers have called for a pause after the Tennessee failure (per WTHR). Executions in Indiana depend on the governor and the DOC drug supply. https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/13/indiana-death-row-inmate-seeks-execution-delay-brain-scans-ahead-clemency-hearings/
- [2026-08-31] Alabama (Taylor, Nov 5): Ivey set a 30-hour window from Nov 5 to Nov 6 and said she has no plans for clemency. She commuted Burton in March. The Alabama Supreme Court order serves as the warrant. Taylor's conventional appeals ended in 2016. Open issue: advocates say Alabama switched him from nitrogen to lethal injection without his election, and that no court has ruled on the switch's lawfulness. This is a method litigation risk, not a clemency one. https://yellowhammernews.com/governor-ivey-sets-execution-date-for-michael-taylor-35-years-after-he-beat-an-elderly-gadsden-couple-to-death/
- [2026-10-13] Texas (Rubio Nov 12, Dennes Nov 19): the TDCJ/DPIC lists show both active. Both lost in the 5th Circuit and US Supreme Court per Chron (Oct 2). Rubio's pentobarbital supply suit was blocked by the TCCA at Paxton's request. Texas has only a one-time 30-day governor reprieve (Abbott did not use it for Howard). The TCCA remains the main stay risk. https://tcadp.org/stop-executions/
- [2026-10-12] Hasan (military, Dec 3): Trump approved on Oct 2 and the Army order followed. His civilian lawyer Galligan called a federal habeas petition "a distinct possibility" but said no decision had been made. Hasan was notified at night with no attorney present. Hasan's direct appeals ended with the Supreme Court's denial in March 2025. Habeas relief and a stay request are the only identified path to delay. Experts say it could delay the execution by years. The OHCHR criticised the livestream. This is the least certain of the 8 dates. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-13] DPIC's page (updated Oct 13) lists exactly 8 remaining 2026 dates and no 2026 dates beyond Dec 3. Its 2027 list is Ohio only. Ohio's governor has said none will be carried out. The page notes it is updated by 12pm ET on business days. Any new warrant for 2026 would need to be a Florida one. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-14] Dependencies in order: Reaves (Oct 20), then Weisheit, Taylor and Guardado (Nov 5), then Rubio and Pavatt (Nov 12), Dennes (Nov 19), Hasan (Dec 3). Each is independent except for a shared risk. A new botched-execution headline, like Pike's, or a US Supreme Court drug ruling could halt several at once. Nothing so far shows spillover beyond Tennessee. Texas executed Howard a week after Pike. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/texas-executes-jamaal-howard-pentobarbital-concerns-1824538
- [2026-10-14] The Pavatt vote (Oklahoma Pardon and Parole Board 3-2 against clemency) leaves courts as the remaining route. Oklahoma's June record gives no sign of a stay. https://www.kosu.org/james-pavatt-clemency-denied

BOTTOM LINE: The count is 31, so the outcome is 31 plus the number of the 8 dates that go ahead. Most of those dates (Reaves, Guardado, Taylor, Rubio, Dennes, Pavatt) face no identified live obstacle. The meaningful risks are Hasan (habeas), Weisheit (clemency or delay) and Taylor (method litigation), so the range of about 36 to 39 looks most likely.

NOT FOUND: Any stay or reprieve for Reaves, Guardado, Taylor, Rubio, Dennes or Pavatt. A ruling on Weisheit's delay motion. Any Hasan habeas filing as of Oct 15. Any new Florida 2026 warrant beyond Guardado. The DPIC execution database list itself (I read only the upcoming-executions page).

I found no prediction-market or Metaculus-community forecast for the 2026 US execution total. Searches for Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus returned only generic platform pages. The sources below are the best available proxies.

- [2026-10-13] DPIC reports 31 US executions so far in 2026, after Florida executed James Robertson. That was Florida's 17th of the year. 
DPIC lists 8 remaining executions for 2026
: Reaves (FL, Oct 20), Weisheit (IN), Taylor (AL) and Guardado (FL) on Nov 5, Rubio (TX) and Pavatt (OK) on Nov 12, Dennes (TX) on Nov 19, and Hasan (military, Dec 3). The ceiling is therefore 39, as the question states. Sources: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions and https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
- [2026-10-13] The Wikipedia scheduled-executions list shows 9 for 2026 as of Oct 7, which includes Robertson. Ohio's many future warrants carry no real forecast value. 
Ohio's governor has said no executions will occur unless the legislature adopts a new method.
 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-13] Rick Halperin's SMU tracker marks all 8 remaining 2026 dates with an asterisk ("serious"). He cautions that stays can come at the last minute. This is the only expert-curated seriousness signal I found, and it is not a forecast. Source: https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [2026-10-15] Weisheit (IN, Nov 5): his lawyers asked the Indiana Supreme Court on Oct 12 to delay the execution to Nov 19 for brain scans. 
The court is letting the clemency hearings proceed as scheduled.
 The motion to postpone the execution itself is still pending. 
Governor Braun denied clemency to Ritchie and Ward last year.
 
As of Oct 2, no drugs had been acquired for the execution, though DOC officials said they were confident in their procedures.
 A delay to Nov 19 would still fall inside 2026. Sources: https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/15/indiana-supreme-court-wont-delay-upcoming-clemency-hearings-death-row-inmate/ and https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/10/02/indiana-plans-to-proceed-with-execution-after-botched-tennessee-attempt/
- [2026-10-13] Hasan (military, Dec 3): Robin Maher, DPIC executive director, said Hasan could delay the execution by filing a federal habeas petition. She said approval by Trump "does not mean that his execution will be imminent." 
CBS reported administration officials were "leaning against" broadcasting the execution, and CNN said they were debating whether to call off the plans.
 The CBS and CNN reports concern the livestream, not necessarily the execution itself. DPIC also lists Hasan as a firing-squad military execution. Sources: https://www.npr.org/2026/10/07/nx-s1-5993539/firing-squad-execution-nidal-hasan-fort-hood and https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/article/nidal-malik-hasan-who-killed-13-in-fort-hood-shooting-set-to-be-executed-by-firing-squad-on-livestream-124824788.html
- [2026-10-13] Tennessee: Governor Lee suspended executions after Christa Pike's failed execution on Sep 30. 
Gary Sutton's Dec 3 execution was put on hold.
 Tennessee has no remaining 2026 dates on DPIC's list. Earlier, 
Tony Carruthers got a one-year reprieve after IV-line problems in May.
 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-13] Florida has scheduled two more executions, on Oct 20 (Reaves) and Nov 5 (Guardado). 
DPIC's warrant-outcomes page shows scheduled executions failing by reprieve or clemency in several states
, including PA, OH and AL (Burton clemency on Mar 10). DeSantis withdrew the Oct 13 warrant for William Lee Thompson, citing dementia claims. Sources: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026 and https://catholicsmobilizing.org/our-work/death-penalty/executions/
- [2026-10-13] Historical comparison: 2025 had 47 executions (Florida 19), the most in 16 years. 2024 had 25 and 2023 had 24. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2025
- [2026-10-13] Amnesty USA's Justin Mazzola cited 47 executions in 2025. The Brian Lehrer segment gave no 2026 projection. Source: the AskNews item on The Brian Lehrer Show, already retrieved. I did not independently fetch the audio.
- [2026-10-15] The Weisheit and Hasan motions and reports above are the main live risks to the 2026 count. No state has had a final-week stay reported yet for the Nov 5 to Nov 19 dates. Source: https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/

BOTTOM LINE: The count is 31 now, and the realistic range is 31 to 39. The upside is capped by the 8 scheduled dates, plus any new Florida warrant that could be signed and carried out before Dec 31. Florida has been moving on a roughly 30-day warrant cycle. Hasan's habeas risk and Weisheit's delay and clemency fight are the main identified downside uncertainties. No market or expert forecaster gives a number.

NOT FOUND: Any Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus community forecast for the 2026 total. Any named analyst or DPIC projection of the year-end total. Any news of new Florida warrants beyond Nov 5.

- [2026-10-15] DPIC's upcoming-executions page, read in full, still shows the same 8 remaining 2026 dates. It also says Ohio has warrants through 2030, but Gov. DeWine has said none will be carried out without a new execution method. The only 2027 dates are Ohio's, so none can be carried out in 2026. The count is 31 and the ceiling is 39. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions

- [2026-10-05] The leading outcome is that most of the 8 go ahead, giving about 37–39. DeSantis signed the Guardado warrant on Oct 5 for Nov 5, which is the 20th Florida warrant of 2026. Fox 13 and CBS Miami report that it would make Florida's 20th execution. Guardado pleaded guilty. His appeal is an ineffective-assistance claim about the penalty phase. Florida's warrant litigation runs on a standard compressed schedule. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record

- [2026-10-08] Reaves (Oct 20) lost in the Indian River County circuit court. He has appealed to the Florida Supreme Court, with a stay motion and an initial brief filed. He also raises lethal-injection protocol and clemency-process claims. The Oct 6 and Oct 8 reports cite no court action that stops the execution. The warrant designates a window from noon Oct 20 to noon Oct 27. https://www.wflx.com/2026/10/08/i-love-him-family-death-row-inmate-william-reaves-pleads-clemency-ahead-oct-20-execution/?outputType=amp

- [2026-09-17] Alabama executed Jeffery Lee by lethal injection after the nitrogen method was blocked. A federal judge rejected his 2018-settlement argument. This is a direct precedent for Taylor (Nov 5), whose date was switched from nitrogen to lethal injection the same way. Ivey has said she has no plans to grant clemency. Taylor's window runs from 12:00 a.m. Nov 5 to 6:00 a.m. Nov 6. Advocates say the Alabama Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of the method switch. https://alabamareflector.com/2026/09/17/alabama-executes-jeffery-lee-by-lethal-injection/

- [2026-08-31] Taylor's execution authority is an Alabama Supreme Court order dated June 4. Alabama's 30-hour window means a short delay would not cause the warrant to lapse. Alabama has now run two lethal-injection executions this year. https://abc3340.com/news/local/alabama-governor-sets-november-execution-window-for-michael-taylor-august-2026-1991-capital-murders-of-ivan-and-lucille-moore

- [2026-10-08] Hasan is the least certain date. His civilian lawyer John Galligan told ABC that a federal habeas petition is "a distinct possibility," but no decision has been made. The Supreme Court denied cert on his conviction in March 2025. Experts quoted by AP and Snopes say habeas could push the execution past the end of this administration. If he files, a stay before Dec 3 is plausible. Wikipedia's list of people who have exhausted their appeals shows him as having no appeals left. This is the main downside risk to 39, and the other seven are the more likely outcomes. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734

- [2026-10-08] Location conflict on Hasan: Hegseth and Army statements say Fort Hood, while one outlet (Latin Times) says Fort Leavenworth. This does not affect whether the execution counts. The fine print counts military executions even if DPIC leaves them out. The Latin Times piece says Trump approved it on Oct 2 and that this would be the first military execution since 1961. https://www.latintimes.com/fort-hood-shooter-hasan-set-die-firing-squad-december-3-one-legal-escape-hatch-that-could-599920

- [2026-10-15] Weisheit (Indiana, Nov 5): the Oct 12 motion asks to move the date to Nov 19 for brain scans. A move to Nov 19 would still count for 2026. This risk was reported in the Oct 15 21Alive and Indiana Capital Chronicle items summarised earlier. I did not re-fetch them. They give no sign of a court stay.

- [2026-10-05] Mechanism for upside: DeSantis has signed warrants roughly 2 to 4 weeks apart. The Sept 18/22 and Oct 5 signings gave 28–45 days of notice. A warrant signed by about Nov 5 could still land in early December. DPIC lists none beyond Nov 5. Florida's 17 executions against 20 warrants signed means 3 fell through. The Thompson withdrawal is one, which shows DeSantis will pull a warrant. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-jesse-guardado-execution

- [2026-10-15] Combining the above: Florida (Reaves, Guardado), Texas (Rubio, Dennes), Alabama (Taylor) and Oklahoma (Pavatt, after the Oct 14 clemency denial) are all procedurally on track. That is 7 of the 8 dates. Indiana's Weisheit is probable, and Hasan is the one clearly in doubt. The modal outcome is therefore 38 (all but Hasan) or 39. A realistic range is 36–39 with a small chance of 40 from a new Florida warrant.

BOTTOM LINE: The favourite is a final total near the top of the range, 38 or 39. Seven of the eight remaining dates sit in states with active executions and have no reported stay, and Hasan's habeas filing is the main way to lose one. Tennessee's halt after the Pike failure has not stopped Texas or Alabama, and Florida's pace shows no sign of slowing.

NOT FOUND: Any stay or ruling on Reaves from the Florida Supreme Court, whose docket I could not open. The Fort Leavenworth versus Fort Hood location conflict is unresolved. The Guardado substack URL I tried returned 404, so the Guardado details come from the Fox 13 and CBS Miami snippets. Any Texas stay for Rubio or Dennes. Any market or forecast odds. Any Florida warrant beyond Nov 5.

Upset case: the leading outcome is presumably 38–39 (all or nearly all of the 8 remaining dates carried out). The strongest alternative is **36–37**, with **35 or below** a less likely tail. The main driver is Hasan on Dec 3, with Weisheit (Indiana) and Taylor (Alabama) as secondary risks. This is a reading of the evidence, not a probability.

- [2026-10-08] Hasan's civilian attorney John Galligan told ABC that a federal habeas filing is "a distinct possibility" but that no decision has been made. He also said the Army set the date at nearly the earliest the rules allow, 60 days after approval. The Army has no modern firing-squad procedure and Hasan is paralyzed. The Army had prepared for lethal injection and switched to firing squad after Trump's approval. A habeas petition could stall the execution past this administration, per Yale's Eugene Fidell. This is the single largest identifiable shortfall risk, and the date is about seven weeks away. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-09] Snopes, Euronews and Jurist also report an OHCHR statement and legal-experts' view. They say the livestream plan itself may invite Eighth Amendment arguments. A livestream controversy gives a habeas petition an extra claim, which makes a stay more plausible than for a routine military execution. Hasan stopped contesting his case at trial, which cuts the other way. https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/10/09/nidal-hasan-execution-livestream-legal/
- [2026-10-15] Weisheit's emergency motion (filed Oct 12) asks the Indiana Supreme Court to move the execution from Nov 5 to Nov 19. It would also push the clemency dates back by 14 days. The court refused to delay the clemency hearings, which proceed Oct 16 and Oct 19. The AG response is due Friday and the defense reply Monday, so the delay request is still undecided. Even if granted, Nov 19 is still inside 2026, so a delay alone would not lower the count. https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/15/indiana-supreme-court-wont-delay-upcoming-clemency-hearings-death-row-inmate/
- [2026-10-12] The Weisheit motion itself says the state asked for a date only nine days after federal habeas ended. It says the brain-trauma evidence was never presented in any court. It states that the Indiana Supreme Court alone has authority to stay an execution. A federal judge approved funding for the scans but said she could not order transport. Indiana had not yet acquired its drugs as of early October. That is a logistics risk after the Pike failure with the same drug, pentobarbital. https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/JAW-2026.10.12-mtn.short_.stay_.pdf
- [2026-08-31] Alabama's Taylor warrant is a lethal-injection execution. Alabama originally obtained it on a nitrogen-hypoxia basis. A federal court then held the nitrogen protocol unconstitutional, and the state switched to lethal injection. Advocates say Taylor never elected that method and that the Alabama Supreme Court declined to rule on the switch. Alabama carried out the same switch for Jeffery Lee on Sept 17, which suggests it will probably work for Taylor too. Ivey says she has no current plan to grant clemency, but she commuted Burton in March. Window: Nov 5 12:00am to Nov 6 6:00am. https://alabamareflector.com/2026/09/17/alabama-executes-jeffery-lee-by-lethal-injection/ ; https://abc3340.com/news/local/alabama-governor-sets-november-execution-window-for-michael-taylor-august-2026-1991-capital-murders-of-ivan-and-lucille-moore
- [2026-10-09] DeSantis withdrew Thompson's warrant, the first withdrawal of his tenure, after an insanity-panel process. Thompson remains on death row and a new warrant could be signed later. This shows Florida's pace is not mechanical. Reaves is 77 and Guardado is 64; Reaves has appealed to the Florida Supreme Court. A similar competency intervention for Reaves would cut the total. https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-13/florida-to-execute-a-prisoner-who-killed-his-cellmate-in-hopes-of-getting-a-death-sentence
- [2026-10-05] Florida signed Guardado's warrant 31 days before Nov 5. Florida's warrants run about 30 days ahead. WUSF said four Florida executions were planned over about two weeks. Only Reaves and Guardado remain, because Thompson was withdrawn. No Florida warrant beyond Nov 5 has been reported. Any new Florida warrant would likely need to be signed by about Nov 20–25 to land in 2026. In Dec 2025 Florida did schedule executions on Dec 9 and Dec 18 (signed in Nov), so a December upside to 40 is possible, but only if one is signed soon. https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-05/desantis-signs-warrant-for-record-20th-execution-in-florida-this-year ; https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/miami/news/florida-man-mark-geralds-1989-murder-execution-set
- [2026-10-13] This one is not a mechanism for an upset. Nine of the 10 Florida, Texas, Alabama, Indiana and Oklahoma dates still running have no reported stay or reprieve. Oklahoma's Pavatt was denied clemency 3-2 (Oct 14, already noted). The upset case therefore rests on Hasan plus roughly one other slip, not on broad failure. A 36–37 result needs only two to three dates to fall out of the eight. https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-13/florida-to-execute-a-prisoner-who-killed-his-cellmate-in-hopes-of-getting-a-death-sentence
- [2026-10-09] The Pike-failure effect is limited to Tennessee so far. Pentobarbital states (Texas, Indiana) said they would proceed. Late-stage litigation from Pike's failure could still affect Indiana (drugs not yet acquired) and Texas (Rubio, Dennes) in November. I found no filings for Texas. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/2026/10/09/florida-execution-called-off-after-desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-the-first-time/

BOTTOM LINE: The best-supported alternative to the "all 8 go ahead" leader (39) is 38 if only Hasan slips, and 36–37 if Hasan plus one or two others slip (Weisheit, Taylor, Reaves). Hasan's habeas risk is the main driver. The upside tail to 40 requires a new Florida warrant signed by about late November.

NOT FOUND: DPIC's full 2026 execution list. Any stay filed for Texas's Rubio or Dennes, or for Oklahoma's Pavatt. Any decision on Weisheit's delay motion. Any Hasan habeas filing as of Oct 15. Any new Florida warrant beyond Nov 5. Any market price.

14 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-15] BBC Podcast Examines US Death Penalty Decline and Drug Supply Issues
BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001rgxf
  - According to the BBC, the podcast series 'Gangster - Killing Death Row - 1.
  - The Hunt for Lethal Drugs' features presenter Livvy Haydock investigating the US death penalty system.
  - The series notes that while support for the death penalty in the US remains above 50%, executions have declined from a modern era peak of 98 in 1999 to just 20 in 2023.
  - The article highlights that only five US states actively carried out executions in 2023, leaving approximately 2,400 Death Row prisoners in limbo.
  - A key focus is the difficulty executioners face in obtaining lethal injection drugs, which led to a story about a supplier in Acton, West London, providing drugs to US state penitentiaries.
  - The podcast includes interviews with inmates, wardens, and campaigners to examine the pressures on the system.

[2026-10-14] Trump Administration Proposes Public Executions in US (opinion)
Medium.com — https://medium.com/the-academic/the-camera-and-the-firing-squad-566e9c18c5db
  - According to the article published on October 14, 2026, the United States is described as the only nation in the Western Hemisphere that still carries out the death penalty, while Belarus is the only European country to practice it, with its last execution occurring in 2022.
  - The text claims that the only countries that executed as many people as the United States did last year are Iran, Saudi Arabia, and 'probably' China.
  - The article alleges that Donald Trump's administration has proposed that the United States become one of the few nations that conduct public executions, joining a group of regimes including Yemen and North Korea.
  - The piece also compares U.S. gun homicides per person to those in Brazil, Barbados, Guatemala, and Paraguay, and notes that the U.S. has the most guns per capita, with Yemen in second place.

[2026-10-14] HRW Reports 31 Executions by Eastern Libya Authorities Under Haftar
AFP — http://doc.afp.com/D3AB7ZQ
  - According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), military authorities in eastern Libya, under the control of military leader Khalifa Haftar and his clan, executed at least 31 people between late August and September 10, 2026.
  - This marks the first reported executions in Libya since 2010, shattering a moratorium that had lasted over 15 years.
  - HRW stated these executions followed 'grossly unfair military trials' where confessions were allegedly extracted through torture, and noted that courts in eastern Libya, which the country's Supreme Court has ruled should not try civilians, were used.
  - Bassam Khawaja, HRW's deputy Middle East and North Africa director, reported that an additional 50 detainees held in a military-controlled prison approximately 100 kilometers east of Benghazi are at 'imminent risk of execution'.
  - HRW called on the international community to pressure Haftar's forces to halt future executions.
  - The country remains divided between Haftar's forces in the east and a UN-recognised government in the west, following the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.
  - The death penalty remains in force for murder, terrorism, and offences against state security, though sentences had not been carried out in recent years.

[2026-10-13] U.S. Plans First Public Execution Since WWII: Debate Over Hasan Firing Squad and Death Penalty Trends
The Brian Lehrer Show — https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/14/pdst.fm/e/dts.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/waaa.wnyc.org/9ad3f75f-0bb4-4437-bf95-5e4140741c91/episodes/1725c3db-a6d7-493f-907c-1535e24e9c73/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=9ad3f75f-0bb4-4437-bf95-5e4140741c91&awEpisodeId=1725c3db-a6d7-493f-907c-1535e24e9c73&feed=C8a1jmw4
  - On October 13, 2026, The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC discussed the planned public firing-squad execution of Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter, scheduled for December 3, 2026, following an announcement by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the event will be live-streamed.
  - Hegseth, appearing on the right-wing network Real America's Voice, stated the public nature is intended to demonstrate 'serious consequences' for terrorist attacks, noting the U.S. has not held public executions since World War II.
  - Hasan, a former Army psychiatrist convicted in 2013 for killing 13 people and wounding 32 in a 2009 attack he described as a 'jihad' to support the Taliban, is the first U.S. prisoner to face a public execution since the 1940s.
  - Justin Mazzola, Deputy Director of Research at Amnesty International USA, joined the program to challenge the deterrent value of the death penalty, citing data that the Taliban and Iran were the only two governments to carry out public executions in 2025, using them as tools of repression rather than crime prevention.
  - Mazzola noted that while 11 U.S. states conducted 47 executions in 2025—the highest number since 2009, driven largely by Florida's 19 executions—global trends show a decline in capital punishment, with 113 countries having abolished it.
  - The discussion also covered the botched 2025 execution of Christa Pike in Tennessee and California Governor Gavin Newsom's potential commutation of 563 death sentences.
  - A retired Marine caller supported the death penalty in rare cases but condemned the livestreaming as undignified, comparing it to the Taliban's methods and ancient Roman spectacles.
  - The show highlighted legal uncertainties regarding the authorization of the livestream and the potential for the execution to create a 'martyr' for extremists, while Mazzola argued that capital cases are significantly more expensive than life imprisonment due to extended trials and appeals.

[2026-10-13] Florida Executes Inmate Who Sought Death Penalty in 2026
MVS Noticias — https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
  - On Tuesday, October 13, 2026, the state of Florida executed James Robertson, a 63-year-old inmate, by lethal injection at the Florida State Prison in Raiford, according to reports from EFE.
  - Robertson, who was declared dead at 12:32 local time (16:32 GMT), was the 17th person executed in Florida in 2026, bringing the state's total to 17 executions this year, which surpasses the combined total of the other five U.S. states that still use the death penalty, according to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC).
  - Robertson had confessed during his judicial process that he deliberately strangled his cellmate, Frank Hart, in 2008 with the specific intent of receiving the death penalty and being transferred to the death row.
  - The execution occurred amidst renewed national debate following a failed lethal injection attempt of Christa Pike in Tennessee on September 30, 2026, which prompted Tennessee Governor Bill Lee to suspend executions, whereas Florida Governor Ron DeSantis proceeded with Robertson's execution.
  - Originally, a double execution was planned, but DeSantis temporarily suspended the execution of 74-year-old William Lee Thompson, whose defense claimed he suffered from dementia.
  - The DPIC reports that the United States has conducted 31 executions so far in 2026.
  - Florida has scheduled two additional executions for October 20 and November 5, 2026, which, if carried out, would equal the state's historical record of 19 executions set in 2025.
  - The event sparked protests, with Hispanic evangelical leaders from the organization Mission Talk, backed by over 70 bishops and pastors, traveling to Tallahassee to deliver a letter demanding an immediate moratorium on the death penalty.

[2026-10-13] U.S. Announces Live Broadcast of Military Execution Amid Death Penalty Protests (opinion)
santegidio.org — https://www.santegidio.org/pageID/30284/langID/pl/itemID/65893/Oko-za-oko-z%C4%85b-za-z%C4%85b--w-ten-oto-spos%C3%B3b-w-erze-cyfrowej-kara-%C5%9Bmierci-staje-si%C4%99-widowiskiem.html
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty was observed, coinciding with an announcement by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth that a military execution will take place on December 3, 2026, and be broadcast live.
  - Hegseth, who was sworn in as the 29th Secretary of Defense on January 25, 2025, and whose department was renamed on September 5, 2025, confirmed the execution of Nidal Hasan, a former U.S. Army psychiatrist and major responsible for the 2009 Fort Hood massacre in Texas that killed 13 people and injured 32.
  - Hasan, a Muslim, carried out the attack in protest against U.S. wars in the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan.
  - The execution, scheduled to be carried out by firing squad at the same time and location as the original massacre, is described by Mario Marazziti in an opinion piece for Avvenire.it as a 'spectacle' and a 'pedagogy of blood' intended to spread terror, contrasting with the 1936 public execution in Kentucky, the last of its kind in the U.S. Marazziti argues this move represents a regression to a 'culture of death,' citing historical precedents like the 2001 live broadcast of Timothy McVeigh's execution and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing which killed 168 people, including 19 children, while noting that thousands of victims' families previously refused to watch such broadcasts.
  - The article also references the 2025 failed execution of Christy Pike in Tennessee, which resulted in torture rather than death due to a double administration of pentobarbital, and draws parallels to public executions in North Korea and Iran, asserting that such acts do not solve societal violence but rather glorify it.

[2026-10-12] Failed Execution of Christa Pike Reignites Death Penalty Debate
Vanity Fair Italia — https://www.vanityfair.it/article/il-caso-di-christa-pike-riapre-il-dibattito-sulla-pena-di-morte-esecuzioni-usa
  - The failed execution of Christa Pike on September 30, 2026, in Tennessee has reignited the debate on the death penalty.
  - Pike, who was 18 when she killed her classmate Colleen Slemmer in 1995, was sentenced to death and has spent her adult life in prison.
  - The execution attempt using pentobarbital failed after two doses, leaving Pike unconscious and critically ill before she was transferred to a hospital.
  - Her lawyers reported that she has since regained consciousness and is walking with assistance, though experts suggest the failure may have been due to an intravenous access issue causing the drug to leak into surrounding tissues, potentially leading to burns and neurological damage from oxygen deprivation.
  - Tennessee Governor Bill Lee has suspended executions for the rest of 2026 following this and a previous failed execution of Tony Carruthers in May.
  - The article highlights a history of botched executions, citing William Kemmler's 1890 electric chair execution in New York, John Evans III's 1983 execution in Alabama, and Jesse Tafero's 1990 execution in Florida.
  - It notes that while lethal injection was introduced in 1982 to appear more humane, it has also resulted in failures, including cases involving Doyle Hamm (2018), John Grant (2021), Joe Nathan James (2022), and Thomas Creech (2024).
  - The article also discusses the introduction of nitrogen hypoxia in Alabama in 2024, used on Kenneth Smith, Alan Miller, and Anthony Boyd, which witnesses described as violent and prolonged despite state claims of success.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, between 1890 and 2010, 3.15% of 8,776 documented executions were classified as failed, with lethal injection having a failure rate of 7.2%.
  - Additionally, the article mentions the planned execution of Nidal Hasan for the Fort Hood massacre on December 3, 2026, which will be streamed, a move supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth but criticized as potentially turning justice into a spectacle.

[2026-10-10] Rise in US Executions and Firing Squad Use in 2025-2026
de Volkskrant — https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/toename-executies-in-de-vs-vuurpeloton-in-2025-drie-keer-ingezet~be970076/
  - As of October 10, 2026, 30 death row inmates have been executed in the United States in 2026, according to de Volkskrant.
  - On December 3, 2026, the first public execution in the US since 1936 is scheduled to take place, where Nidal Hasan will be executed by firing squad, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
  - The use of a firing squad for military executions has not occurred since 1945, but states are permitted to use it; in South Carolina, inmates have been allowed to choose this method since 2021, and three inmates chose it in 2025, with two reportedly fearing the 'torture' of other methods.
  - During his first term, the federal government carried out 13 executions, the highest number in 50 years, all in the last half of the term.
  - President Biden commuted the death sentences of 37 of the 40 federal death row inmates to life imprisonment.
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty is observed, an event organized since 2003 by the World Coalition Against the Death Penalty, which considers the death penalty inhumane.
  - According to Amnesty International, at least 2,707 executions occurred globally in 2025, the highest number since 1981, with over 2,000 in Iran.
  - China's execution numbers remain state secrets, though Amnesty International suspects thousands of executions there.

[2026-10-01] Florida Leads U.S. in Executions in 2026 with 16, Surpassing All Other States Combined
Men's Journal — https://www.mensjournal.com/news/florida-has-carried-out-more-executions-than-every-other-state-combined-in-2026
  - As of October 1, 2026, Florida has carried out 16 executions in 2026, a total that exceeds the combined number of executions in all other U.S. states this year, according to a Men's Journal article.
  - This marks a sharp increase from the 19 executions Florida conducted in 2025 and just one in 2024.
  - Over the past two years, 35 prisoners have been executed in the state, with a consistent rate maintained for 18 months.
  - The article suggests President Trump may be a contributing factor, noting he signed an executive order titled 'Restoring the Death Penalty and Protecting Public Safety' in January 2025.
  - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, during his second term, has overseen several lethal injections, including that of James Duckett, a former police officer convicted of murdering an 11-year-old girl in the 1980s.
  - Notably, Florida executed two men in July 2026, one of whom was the second octogenarian to receive the death penalty in 50 years.
  - In contrast, Texas has executed 602 prisoners since 1976 but has seen its annual numbers decline to six in 2026.
  - Oklahoma executed three inmates in 2026, and Alabama executed at least one, according to the Death Penalty Information Center.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Hit 15-Year High in 2025 with Florida Leading Surge
euronews — https://tr.euronews.com/2026/09/03/abdde-idamlar-son-15-yilin-en-yuksek-seviyesine-cikti
  - According to data reported by euronews, the United States executed 47 people in 2025, marking the highest annual number of executions since 2009.
  - This represents a significant increase from the 25 executions carried out in 2024.
  - The primary driver of this surge was Florida, which conducted 19 executions, accounting for 40% of the national total.
  - The executions in 2025 were distributed across 11 states.
  - The high tempo continued into 2026; as of September 1, 2026, 24 executions had taken place nationwide, with Florida alone responsible for 14 of them.
  - Additionally, on August 13, 2026, executions were carried out simultaneously in three states—Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma—for the first time since 2010.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Surge in 2026 with Florida Leading Under Trump Administration
RT en Español — https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/625775-nueva-ola-ejecuciones-recorre-eeuu
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC), the United States has carried out 24 executions so far in 2026, with Florida leading the nation by conducting 14 of them.
  - On Tuesday, Florida executed Harold Lucas, a 74-year-old man convicted of a 1976 homicide, marking the state's 14th execution of the year.
  - In 2025, the U.S. recorded 47 executions, the highest number since 2009.
  - Robin Maher, executive director of the DPIC, told Axios that this increase reflects the Trump Administration's enthusiasm and insistence on more frequent use of the death penalty.
  - The Trump Administration officially reinstated the federal death penalty in 2025 after a four-year moratorium under the Joe Biden administration, having previously restored it in 2019 during its first term.
  - Despite the rise in executions, 2026 figures remain lower than the late 1990s, when 98 executions occurred in 1999.
  - Maher noted that most juries in death penalty cases now impose life imprisonment rather than the death penalty, and public awareness that 'the system makes mistakes' is affecting support for capital punishment.

[2026-08-14] Three Executions on Same Day Spark US Death Penalty Debate
Brasil 247 — https://www.brasil247.com/mundo/tres-execucoes-no-mesmo-dia-ampliam-debate-sobre-pena-de-morte-nos-eua/
  - Three executions scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2026, in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Alabama have reignited the debate over the death penalty in the United States, according to the news outlet Brasil 247.
  - This marks the first time since 2010 that three executions are scheduled for the same day.
  - If carried out, the total number of executions in 2026 will reach 22.
  - In 2025, 47 executions were recorded, the highest number in 17 years, with 19 already executed in 2026.
  - The executions are concentrated in a few states, including Florida, where Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has driven the policy.
  - In Tennessee, Anthony Darrell Hines is scheduled to be executed for the 1985 murder of Catherine Jean Jenkins, a 54-year-old hotel maid.
  - In Alabama, 42-year-old Jeremy Williams will receive a lethal injection for the 2021 rape and murder of a five-year-old girl; he pleaded guilty, filed no appeals, and requested execution.
  - In Oklahoma, 70-year-old Carlos Cuesta-Rodriguez will be executed for the 2003 shooting death of his girlfriend, Olimpia Fisher; he will be the third person executed in the state in 2026 and the 20th under Republican Governor Kevin Stitt.
  - By 2026, six states are expected to have carried out executions, up from 11 states in 2025.

[… older articles omitted]

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: DPIC's 'Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2026' page, last updated October 13, 2026, says 58 execution dates have been scheduled by 9 states and the U.S. Military for 2026, 31 executions have been carried out, and 19 death warrants are inactive. The Upcoming Executions page, also updated October 13, lists 8 executions still scheduled for 2026: Oct 20 FL Reaves; Nov 5 IN Weisheit, AL Taylor and FL Guardado; Nov 12 TX Rubio and OK Pavatt; Nov 19 TX Dennes; and Dec 3 Military Nidal Hasan.
  Last updated: 2026-10-13 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The running total as of Oct 13, 2026 is 31, so the 31st execution happened after the Oct 7 Texas execution that the question calls the 30th. If all 8 remaining 2026 dates go ahead, the total would be 39, which matches the question's figure. One of the 8 is a U.S. Military execution (Nidal Hasan, Dec 3). The fine print says military executions count even if DPIC leaves them out of its total, so check that it is counted. The CSV export of the Execution Database was not fetched to check this count row by row.
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026 (HTTP 200)

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (2 lookups):

  List of people executed in the United States in 2025:
  


Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
  Detail: Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
The state of South Carolina carried out the executions of three inmates by firing squad, marking the first three executions by firing squad since 2010, when Ronnie Lee Gardner was executed in Utah by firing squad (all three inmates chose the method).
The state of Louisiana conducted its first execution in 15 years since 2010; the person executed, Jessie Hoffman Jr., was additionally the first to be executed by nitrogen gas in Louisiana, which became the second state after Alabama to conduct nitrogen gas executions. Arizona carried out the first executions in a state with a Democratic governor in office since 2017. The state of Mississippi carried out the execution of the state's longest-serving death row inmate Richard Gerald Jordan after he spent 49 years on death row. Edward Zakrzewski II was the ninth person put to death in Florida, marking a post-Furman record year of executions for the state since 2014; while the...

  List of people executed in the United States in 2026:
  To date, thirty-one people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
  Detail: To date, thirty-one people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
Harold Gene Lucas, one of Florida's longest-serving prisoners on death row, was executed nearly 50 years after he was convicted of the 1976 murder of his 16-year-old ex-girlfriend Jill Piper. 
James Aren Duckett and Dominick Anthony Occhicone were executed five hours apart on the same date of July 28, 2026. This was the first double execution carried out in a single day in a U.S. death penalty state since Arkansas executed Jack Harold Jones and Marcel Wayne Williams in 2017 and the first in Florida since 1964. At the same time, Occhicone became the oldest person to be executed in Florida at the age of 80.
Charles Lee Burton was originally scheduled to be executed in Alabama by nitrogen hypoxia on March 12, 2026. His death sentence was commuted to life without parole by Governor Kay Ivey just two days before his scheduled execution. 
Tony Von Carruthers, who was originally scheduled to be executed in Tennessee on May 21, 2026, received a one-year reprieve from Governor Bill Lee after complications with setting IV lines prior to the execution. Another Tennessee inmate, Christa Gail...

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The US death-row population has declined for 20 consecutive years, with around 2,100 [prisoners currently facing execution](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/death-row/overview). However, capital punishment remains in the headlines, in part due to [Florida's increasing numbers of executions](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/magazine/florida-death-penalty.html). In mid August, [Florida executed its 13th death row prisoner of the year](https://apnews.com/article/florida-execution-william-silvia-9ece9e5bba0484cdd83e53fd0918145a). Texas remains the state with the most executions since the reinstatement of the death penalty in the 1970s.

Not all executions that are planned go ahead [on schedule](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026), either due to reprieves, appeals, executive orders, or in the case of [Christa Pike in Tennessee](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/tag/christa-pike), a failed execution. A review was called for by the Governor and [the Department of Correction Commissioner resigned](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/us/tennessee-prison-commissioner-resigns-christa-pike.html). However, [the 30th person executed of the year](https://www.local10.com/news/2026/10/07/texas-carries-out-nations-first-execution-since-christa-pikes-failed-lethal-injection/) occurred a week later in Texas. 

[Nine more executions are scheduled](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions) to take place between October 13 and December 31, 2026. If they all go ahead, the total for the nation in 2026 would be 39.

`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 45255, "question_id": 45444}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the total number of people in the United States who were executed by state and federal governmental authorities in 2026, according to the [Death Penalty Information Center](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/executions) (DPIC). 

## Fine Print
This question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). Please note that US military executions count even if they are not included in the DPIC total.

***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45255) which opened on 2026-10-12 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.

## Options
  - Fewer than 39
  - 39
  - 40
  - 41
  - More than 41

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: DPIC's 'Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2026' page, last updated October 13, 2026, says 58 execution dates have been scheduled by 9 states and the U.S. Military for 2026, 31 executions have been carried out, and 19 death warrants are inactive. The Upcoming Executions page, also updated October 13, lists 8 executions still scheduled for 2026: Oct 20 FL Reaves; Nov 5 IN Weisheit, AL Taylor and FL Guardado; Nov 12 TX Rubio and OK Pavatt; Nov 19 TX Dennes; and Dec 3 Military Nidal Hasan.
  Last updated: 2026-10-13 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The running total as of Oct 13, 2026 is 31, so the 31st execution happened after the Oct 7 Texas execution that the question calls the 30th. If all 8 remaining 2026 dates go ahead, the total would be 39, which matches the question's figure. One of the 8 is a U.S. Military execution (Nidal Hasan, Dec 3). The fine print says military executions count even if DPIC leaves them out of its total, so check that it is counted. The CSV export of the Execution Database was not fetched to check this count row by row.
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026 (HTTP 200)

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (2 lookups):

  List of people executed in the United States in 2025:
  


Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
  Detail: Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
The state of South Carolina carried out the executions of three inmates by firing squad, marking the first three executions by firing squad since 2010, when Ronnie Lee Gardner was executed in Utah by firing squad (all three inmates chose the method).
The state of Louisiana conducted its first execution in 15 years since 2010; the person executed, Jessie Hoffman Jr., was additionally the first to be executed by nitrogen gas in Louisiana, which became the second state after Alabama to conduct nitrogen gas executions. Arizona carried out the first executions in a state with a Democratic governor in office since 2017. The state of Mississippi carried out the execution of the state's longest-serving death row inmate Richard Gerald Jordan after he spent 49 years on death row. Edward Zakrzewski II was the ninth person put to death in Florida, marking a post-Furman record year of executions for the state since 2014; while the...

  List of people executed in the United States in 2026:
  To date, thirty-one people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
  Detail: To date, thirty-one people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
Harold Gene Lucas, one of Florida's longest-serving prisoners on death row, was executed nearly 50 years after he was convicted of the 1976 murder of his 16-year-old ex-girlfriend Jill Piper. 
James Aren Duckett and Dominick Anthony Occhicone were executed five hours apart on the same date of July 28, 2026. This was the first double execution carried out in a single day in a U.S. death penalty state since Arkansas executed Jack Harold Jones and Marcel Wayne Williams in 2017 and the first in Florida since 1964. At the same time, Occhicone became the oldest person to be executed in Florida at the age of 80.
Charles Lee Burton was originally scheduled to be executed in Alabama by nitrogen hypoxia on March 12, 2026. His death sentence was commuted to life without parole by Governor Kay Ivey just two days before his scheduled execution. 
Tony Von Carruthers, who was originally scheduled to be executed in Tennessee on May 21, 2026, received a one-year reprieve from Governor Bill Lee after complications with setting IV lines prior to the execution. Another Tennessee inmate, Christa Gail...

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-15; forecasting closes 2026-10-15; resolves 2027-01-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
14 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-15] BBC Podcast Examines US Death Penalty Decline and Drug Supply Issues
BBC — https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001rgxf
  - According to the BBC, the podcast series 'Gangster - Killing Death Row - 1.
  - The Hunt for Lethal Drugs' features presenter Livvy Haydock investigating the US death penalty system.
  - The series notes that while support for the death penalty in the US remains above 50%, executions have declined from a modern era peak of 98 in 1999 to just 20 in 2023.
  - The article highlights that only five US states actively carried out executions in 2023, leaving approximately 2,400 Death Row prisoners in limbo.
  - A key focus is the difficulty executioners face in obtaining lethal injection drugs, which led to a story about a supplier in Acton, West London, providing drugs to US state penitentiaries.
  - The podcast includes interviews with inmates, wardens, and campaigners to examine the pressures on the system.

[2026-10-14] Trump Administration Proposes Public Executions in US (opinion)
Medium.com — https://medium.com/the-academic/the-camera-and-the-firing-squad-566e9c18c5db
  - According to the article published on October 14, 2026, the United States is described as the only nation in the Western Hemisphere that still carries out the death penalty, while Belarus is the only European country to practice it, with its last execution occurring in 2022.
  - The text claims that the only countries that executed as many people as the United States did last year are Iran, Saudi Arabia, and 'probably' China.
  - The article alleges that Donald Trump's administration has proposed that the United States become one of the few nations that conduct public executions, joining a group of regimes including Yemen and North Korea.
  - The piece also compares U.S. gun homicides per person to those in Brazil, Barbados, Guatemala, and Paraguay, and notes that the U.S. has the most guns per capita, with Yemen in second place.

[2026-10-14] HRW Reports 31 Executions by Eastern Libya Authorities Under Haftar
AFP — http://doc.afp.com/D3AB7ZQ
  - According to Human Rights Watch (HRW), military authorities in eastern Libya, under the control of military leader Khalifa Haftar and his clan, executed at least 31 people between late August and September 10, 2026.
  - This marks the first reported executions in Libya since 2010, shattering a moratorium that had lasted over 15 years.
  - HRW stated these executions followed 'grossly unfair military trials' where confessions were allegedly extracted through torture, and noted that courts in eastern Libya, which the country's Supreme Court has ruled should not try civilians, were used.
  - Bassam Khawaja, HRW's deputy Middle East and North Africa director, reported that an additional 50 detainees held in a military-controlled prison approximately 100 kilometers east of Benghazi are at 'imminent risk of execution'.
  - HRW called on the international community to pressure Haftar's forces to halt future executions.
  - The country remains divided between Haftar's forces in the east and a UN-recognised government in the west, following the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.
  - The death penalty remains in force for murder, terrorism, and offences against state security, though sentences had not been carried out in recent years.

[2026-10-13] U.S. Plans First Public Execution Since WWII: Debate Over Hasan Firing Squad and Death Penalty Trends
The Brian Lehrer Show — https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/14/pdst.fm/e/dts.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/waaa.wnyc.org/9ad3f75f-0bb4-4437-bf95-5e4140741c91/episodes/1725c3db-a6d7-493f-907c-1535e24e9c73/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=9ad3f75f-0bb4-4437-bf95-5e4140741c91&awEpisodeId=1725c3db-a6d7-493f-907c-1535e24e9c73&feed=C8a1jmw4
  - On October 13, 2026, The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC discussed the planned public firing-squad execution of Nidal Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter, scheduled for December 3, 2026, following an announcement by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the event will be live-streamed.
  - Hegseth, appearing on the right-wing network Real America's Voice, stated the public nature is intended to demonstrate 'serious consequences' for terrorist attacks, noting the U.S. has not held public executions since World War II.
  - Hasan, a former Army psychiatrist convicted in 2013 for killing 13 people and wounding 32 in a 2009 attack he described as a 'jihad' to support the Taliban, is the first U.S. prisoner to face a public execution since the 1940s.
  - Justin Mazzola, Deputy Director of Research at Amnesty International USA, joined the program to challenge the deterrent value of the death penalty, citing data that the Taliban and Iran were the only two governments to carry out public executions in 2025, using them as tools of repression rather than crime prevention.
  - Mazzola noted that while 11 U.S. states conducted 47 executions in 2025—the highest number since 2009, driven largely by Florida's 19 executions—global trends show a decline in capital punishment, with 113 countries having abolished it.
  - The discussion also covered the botched 2025 execution of Christa Pike in Tennessee and California Governor Gavin Newsom's potential commutation of 563 death sentences.
  - A retired Marine caller supported the death penalty in rare cases but condemned the livestreaming as undignified, comparing it to the Taliban's methods and ancient Roman spectacles.
  - The show highlighted legal uncertainties regarding the authorization of the livestream and the potential for the execution to create a 'martyr' for extremists, while Mazzola argued that capital cases are significantly more expensive than life imprisonment due to extended trials and appeals.

[2026-10-13] Florida Executes Inmate Who Sought Death Penalty in 2026
MVS Noticias — https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
  - On Tuesday, October 13, 2026, the state of Florida executed James Robertson, a 63-year-old inmate, by lethal injection at the Florida State Prison in Raiford, according to reports from EFE.
  - Robertson, who was declared dead at 12:32 local time (16:32 GMT), was the 17th person executed in Florida in 2026, bringing the state's total to 17 executions this year, which surpasses the combined total of the other five U.S. states that still use the death penalty, according to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC).
  - Robertson had confessed during his judicial process that he deliberately strangled his cellmate, Frank Hart, in 2008 with the specific intent of receiving the death penalty and being transferred to the death row.
  - The execution occurred amidst renewed national debate following a failed lethal injection attempt of Christa Pike in Tennessee on September 30, 2026, which prompted Tennessee Governor Bill Lee to suspend executions, whereas Florida Governor Ron DeSantis proceeded with Robertson's execution.
  - Originally, a double execution was planned, but DeSantis temporarily suspended the execution of 74-year-old William Lee Thompson, whose defense claimed he suffered from dementia.
  - The DPIC reports that the United States has conducted 31 executions so far in 2026.
  - Florida has scheduled two additional executions for October 20 and November 5, 2026, which, if carried out, would equal the state's historical record of 19 executions set in 2025.
  - The event sparked protests, with Hispanic evangelical leaders from the organization Mission Talk, backed by over 70 bishops and pastors, traveling to Tallahassee to deliver a letter demanding an immediate moratorium on the death penalty.

[2026-10-13] U.S. Announces Live Broadcast of Military Execution Amid Death Penalty Protests (opinion)
santegidio.org — https://www.santegidio.org/pageID/30284/langID/pl/itemID/65893/Oko-za-oko-z%C4%85b-za-z%C4%85b--w-ten-oto-spos%C3%B3b-w-erze-cyfrowej-kara-%C5%9Bmierci-staje-si%C4%99-widowiskiem.html
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty was observed, coinciding with an announcement by U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth that a military execution will take place on December 3, 2026, and be broadcast live.
  - Hegseth, who was sworn in as the 29th Secretary of Defense on January 25, 2025, and whose department was renamed on September 5, 2025, confirmed the execution of Nidal Hasan, a former U.S. Army psychiatrist and major responsible for the 2009 Fort Hood massacre in Texas that killed 13 people and injured 32.
  - Hasan, a Muslim, carried out the attack in protest against U.S. wars in the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan.
  - The execution, scheduled to be carried out by firing squad at the same time and location as the original massacre, is described by Mario Marazziti in an opinion piece for Avvenire.it as a 'spectacle' and a 'pedagogy of blood' intended to spread terror, contrasting with the 1936 public execution in Kentucky, the last of its kind in the U.S. Marazziti argues this move represents a regression to a 'culture of death,' citing historical precedents like the 2001 live broadcast of Timothy McVeigh's execution and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing which killed 168 people, including 19 children, while noting that thousands of victims' families previously refused to watch such broadcasts.
  - The article also references the 2025 failed execution of Christy Pike in Tennessee, which resulted in torture rather than death due to a double administration of pentobarbital, and draws parallels to public executions in North Korea and Iran, asserting that such acts do not solve societal violence but rather glorify it.

[2026-10-12] Failed Execution of Christa Pike Reignites Death Penalty Debate
Vanity Fair Italia — https://www.vanityfair.it/article/il-caso-di-christa-pike-riapre-il-dibattito-sulla-pena-di-morte-esecuzioni-usa
  - The failed execution of Christa Pike on September 30, 2026, in Tennessee has reignited the debate on the death penalty.
  - Pike, who was 18 when she killed her classmate Colleen Slemmer in 1995, was sentenced to death and has spent her adult life in prison.
  - The execution attempt using pentobarbital failed after two doses, leaving Pike unconscious and critically ill before she was transferred to a hospital.
  - Her lawyers reported that she has since regained consciousness and is walking with assistance, though experts suggest the failure may have been due to an intravenous access issue causing the drug to leak into surrounding tissues, potentially leading to burns and neurological damage from oxygen deprivation.
  - Tennessee Governor Bill Lee has suspended executions for the rest of 2026 following this and a previous failed execution of Tony Carruthers in May.
  - The article highlights a history of botched executions, citing William Kemmler's 1890 electric chair execution in New York, John Evans III's 1983 execution in Alabama, and Jesse Tafero's 1990 execution in Florida.
  - It notes that while lethal injection was introduced in 1982 to appear more humane, it has also resulted in failures, including cases involving Doyle Hamm (2018), John Grant (2021), Joe Nathan James (2022), and Thomas Creech (2024).
  - The article also discusses the introduction of nitrogen hypoxia in Alabama in 2024, used on Kenneth Smith, Alan Miller, and Anthony Boyd, which witnesses described as violent and prolonged despite state claims of success.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, between 1890 and 2010, 3.15% of 8,776 documented executions were classified as failed, with lethal injection having a failure rate of 7.2%.
  - Additionally, the article mentions the planned execution of Nidal Hasan for the Fort Hood massacre on December 3, 2026, which will be streamed, a move supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth but criticized as potentially turning justice into a spectacle.

[2026-10-10] Rise in US Executions and Firing Squad Use in 2025-2026
de Volkskrant — https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/toename-executies-in-de-vs-vuurpeloton-in-2025-drie-keer-ingezet~be970076/
  - As of October 10, 2026, 30 death row inmates have been executed in the United States in 2026, according to de Volkskrant.
  - On December 3, 2026, the first public execution in the US since 1936 is scheduled to take place, where Nidal Hasan will be executed by firing squad, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
  - The use of a firing squad for military executions has not occurred since 1945, but states are permitted to use it; in South Carolina, inmates have been allowed to choose this method since 2021, and three inmates chose it in 2025, with two reportedly fearing the 'torture' of other methods.
  - During his first term, the federal government carried out 13 executions, the highest number in 50 years, all in the last half of the term.
  - President Biden commuted the death sentences of 37 of the 40 federal death row inmates to life imprisonment.
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty is observed, an event organized since 2003 by the World Coalition Against the Death Penalty, which considers the death penalty inhumane.
  - According to Amnesty International, at least 2,707 executions occurred globally in 2025, the highest number since 1981, with over 2,000 in Iran.
  - China's execution numbers remain state secrets, though Amnesty International suspects thousands of executions there.

[2026-10-01] Florida Leads U.S. in Executions in 2026 with 16, Surpassing All Other States Combined
Men's Journal — https://www.mensjournal.com/news/florida-has-carried-out-more-executions-than-every-other-state-combined-in-2026
  - As of October 1, 2026, Florida has carried out 16 executions in 2026, a total that exceeds the combined number of executions in all other U.S. states this year, according to a Men's Journal article.
  - This marks a sharp increase from the 19 executions Florida conducted in 2025 and just one in 2024.
  - Over the past two years, 35 prisoners have been executed in the state, with a consistent rate maintained for 18 months.
  - The article suggests President Trump may be a contributing factor, noting he signed an executive order titled 'Restoring the Death Penalty and Protecting Public Safety' in January 2025.
  - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, during his second term, has overseen several lethal injections, including that of James Duckett, a former police officer convicted of murdering an 11-year-old girl in the 1980s.
  - Notably, Florida executed two men in July 2026, one of whom was the second octogenarian to receive the death penalty in 50 years.
  - In contrast, Texas has executed 602 prisoners since 1976 but has seen its annual numbers decline to six in 2026.
  - Oklahoma executed three inmates in 2026, and Alabama executed at least one, according to the Death Penalty Information Center.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Hit 15-Year High in 2025 with Florida Leading Surge
euronews — https://tr.euronews.com/2026/09/03/abdde-idamlar-son-15-yilin-en-yuksek-seviyesine-cikti
  - According to data reported by euronews, the United States executed 47 people in 2025, marking the highest annual number of executions since 2009.
  - This represents a significant increase from the 25 executions carried out in 2024.
  - The primary driver of this surge was Florida, which conducted 19 executions, accounting for 40% of the national total.
  - The executions in 2025 were distributed across 11 states.
  - The high tempo continued into 2026; as of September 1, 2026, 24 executions had taken place nationwide, with Florida alone responsible for 14 of them.
  - Additionally, on August 13, 2026, executions were carried out simultaneously in three states—Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma—for the first time since 2010.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Surge in 2026 with Florida Leading Under Trump Administration
RT en Español — https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/625775-nueva-ola-ejecuciones-recorre-eeuu
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC), the United States has carried out 24 executions so far in 2026, with Florida leading the nation by conducting 14 of them.
  - On Tuesday, Florida executed Harold Lucas, a 74-year-old man convicted of a 1976 homicide, marking the state's 14th execution of the year.
  - In 2025, the U.S. recorded 47 executions, the highest number since 2009.
  - Robin Maher, executive director of the DPIC, told Axios that this increase reflects the Trump Administration's enthusiasm and insistence on more frequent use of the death penalty.
  - The Trump Administration officially reinstated the federal death penalty in 2025 after a four-year moratorium under the Joe Biden administration, having previously restored it in 2019 during its first term.
  - Despite the rise in executions, 2026 figures remain lower than the late 1990s, when 98 executions occurred in 1999.
  - Maher noted that most juries in death penalty cases now impose life imprisonment rather than the death penalty, and public awareness that 'the system makes mistakes' is affecting support for capital punishment.

[2026-08-14] Three Executions on Same Day Spark US Death Penalty Debate
Brasil 247 — https://www.brasil247.com/mundo/tres-execucoes-no-mesmo-dia-ampliam-debate-sobre-pena-de-morte-nos-eua/
  - Three executions scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2026, in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Alabama have reignited the debate over the death penalty in the United States, according to the news outlet Brasil 247.
  - This marks the first time since 2010 that three executions are scheduled for the same day.
  - If carried out, the total number of executions in 2026 will reach 22.
  - In 2025, 47 executions were recorded, the highest number in 17 years, with 19 already executed in 2026.
  - The executions are concentrated in a few states, including Florida, where Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has driven the policy.
  - In Tennessee, Anthony Darrell Hines is scheduled to be executed for the 1985 murder of Catherine Jean Jenkins, a 54-year-old hotel maid.
  - In Alabama, 42-year-old Jeremy Williams will receive a lethal injection for the 2021 rape and murder of a five-year-old girl; he pleaded guilty, filed no appeals, and requested execution.
  - In Oklahoma, 70-year-old Carlos Cuesta-Rodriguez will be executed for the 2003 shooting death of his girlfriend, Olimpia Fisher; he will be the third person executed in the state in 2026 and the 20th under Republican Governor Kevin Stitt.
  - By 2026, six states are expected to have carried out executions, up from 11 states in 2025.

[… older articles omitted]

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-13] DPIC's Outcomes of Death Warrants page (last updated Oct 13) says 58 execution dates were set for 2026 by 9 states and the US Military. It shows 31 executions carried out and 19 warrants inactive. The DPIC execution database and upcoming-executions pages carry the same Oct 13 update stamp. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-13] Florida executed James Robertson, its 17th of 2026. Per EFE, DPIC counts 31 US executions so far. The question text puts the Oct 7 Texas execution (Jamaal Howard) at 30, so Robertson makes 31. https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
- [2026-10-13] DPIC lists 8 remaining 2026 executions. Oct 20 FL Reaves; Nov 5 IN Weisheit, AL Taylor, FL Guardado; Nov 12 TX Rubio, OK Pavatt; Nov 19 TX Dennes; Dec 3 Military Hasan. That would give a ceiling of 39 on current warrants. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-08/09] The question text says nine were scheduled from Oct 13 on. The ninth was Florida's William Lee Thompson (Oct 13). DeSantis withdrew his warrant, the first withdrawal of his tenure, citing no reason. The defense says Thompson has dementia. The AP did not say whether a new date will be sought. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/article/florida-execution-called-off-after-desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-the-first-time/
- [2026-09-30] Tennessee's Christa Pike survived two pentobarbital attempts. DPIC's header links to ongoing Pike updates. Gov. Lee ordered a third-party review and suspended executions. Tennessee has no further 2026 dates on DPIC's list. https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
- [2026-09-18/20] DeSantis signed his 18th warrant of 2026, for William Reaves (77), set for Oct 20. Florida has 17 executions this year (record is 19 in 2025). Reaves and Guardado would make 19. https://www.fox13news.com/news/florida-death-row-gov-desantis-signs-18th-death-warrant-2026
- [2026-10-14] Oklahoma's Pardon and Parole Board voted 3-2 against clemency for James Pavatt (Nov 12). Gov. Stitt cannot intervene after that vote. Oklahoma has 2 executions so far this year. https://www.kosu.org/james-pavatt-clemency-denied
- [2026-10-13] Military: Nidal Hasan's firing-squad execution is set for Dec 3 at Fort Hood. Hegseth said it will be live-streamed. This is a legally novel, high-profile event. DPIC lists it as scheduled. Per the question's fine print, military executions count even if DPIC omits them. https://www.brian-lehrer-show-summary (see AskNews item; DPIC list confirms date) https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia's scheduled-executions list shows 9 for 2026 as of Oct 7 (Texas 2, Florida 3 including Thompson, AL 1, IN 1, OK 1, Military 1). Oct 13 had Florida's 2 slated. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-15] Texas has Rubio (Nov 12) and Dennes (Nov 19) left. I found no stay reports for either. Alabama's Taylor is Nov 5. Earlier in 2026 the Supreme Court blocked Alabama's nitrogen-gas method for Jeffery Lee (June 11), and Alabama sought lethal injection instead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-03-10] Alabama's governor commuted Charles Burton's sentence before his Mar 12 date. Of 58 dates set, 19 became inactive through reprieves, commutations or stays, a base rate of about one-third. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-15] No 2026 execution has occurred since Robertson on Oct 13. DPIC's count of 31 stands as of today. Florida's Reaves (Oct 20) is the next date.

BOTTOM LINE: The count stands at 31, with 8 executions scheduled and a ceiling of 39 on current warrants. Florida may add more warrants, though new warrants usually need about 30 days' notice, so any added after mid-November are unlikely to be carried out before Dec 31. The realistic range is 31 plus however many of the 8 go ahead.

NOT FOUND: DPIC's full execution-database list for 2026. Any reported stays for Reaves, Guardado, Weisheit, Taylor, Rubio or Dennes. Any new 2026 warrants beyond the 8. Any change in the Tennessee suspension beyond Oct 13.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-13] DPI shows 31 executions carried out in 2026 as of Oct 13. That figure appears to include Florida's James Robertson, executed Oct 13. Of 58 execution dates set by 9 states and the military for 2026, 19 are inactive and 8 remain active. The floor is therefore 31 and the ceiling is 39. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-13] The 8 remaining 2026 dates are: Oct 20 FL Reaves; Nov 5 IN Weisheit, AL Taylor and FL Guardado; Nov 12 TX Rubio and OK Pavatt; Nov 19 TX Dennes; Dec 3 military Hasan. Ohio warrants in 2027 and later are not expected to be carried out. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-13] The SMU pending-executions list marks all 8 remaining 2026 dates as "serious", meaning more likely to proceed. That list also warns that stays can come at the last moment. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [2026-10-13] Warrant conversion so far in 2026: 31 of 58 dates were executed. Most of the 19 inactive dates were Ohio (DeWine reprieves) and Pennsylvania (Shapiro reprieves). Others were an Alabama commutation (Burton) and Tennessee halts. So the conversion rate for dates in states that actually carry out executions is much higher than 31/58. The Wikipedia 2026 list also shows Florida's Hitchcock execution stayed on Mar 31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-13] Florida has done 17 executions in 2026, against 19 in 2025. DeSantis paused William Thompson (dementia claim) and one Oct 13 double execution became a single one. Reaves (age 77) lost in circuit court and has appealed to the Florida Supreme Court. Clemency was requested, and the execution stands unless a court or DeSantis intervenes. Guardado (Nov 5) is the other Florida date. https://www.wflx.com/2026/10/08/i-love-him-family-death-row-inmate-william-reaves-pleads-clemency-ahead-oct-20-execution/?outputType=amp
- [2026-10-01] Tennessee's governor halted the remaining 2026 Tennessee executions after the failed Pike lethal injection. Sutton's Dec 3 date is on hold, so Tennessee adds no more 2026 executions. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/01/nx-s1-5986822/tennessee-governor-halts-executions
- [2026-10-08] Texas executed Jamaal Howard on Oct 7 with the same pentobarbital protocol, despite the Pike failure. Texas has Rubio (Nov 12) and Dennes (Nov 19) scheduled; the TDCJ page lists both as of Oct 8. https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/death_row/scheduled_executions.html
- [2026-10-12] The Hasan date (Dec 3, firing squad) is the least certain. DPI notes he can seek civilian federal habeas review, which could delay the execution indefinitely. Reports say the administration was debating the livestream, and he has not said whether he will file. It would be the first military execution since 1961. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/nidal-hasan-may-be-executed-on-december-3-by-firing-squad-first-military-execution-in-65-years
- [2026-10-14] Prior-year anchors: 2025 had 47 executions (the most since 2009) and Florida had 19. 2023 had 24 and 1999 had 98. https://davisvanguard.org/2026/08/three-executions-scheduled-thursday/
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia counted 9 scheduled for 2026 as of Oct 7, and Robertson (now done) was one of them. No further 2026 warrants beyond the 8 above are listed. Late additions are possible but unlikely. Texas and Florida normally give 30 or more days' notice, and Florida's warrants have run about 30 days ahead (Reaves was signed Sep 18 for Oct 20). A Florida warrant signed by late October could still land in December. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States

BOTTOM LINE: The base rate points to a final total of 31 plus most of the 8 scheduled dates, probably 36 to 39. Florida, Texas, Alabama, Indiana and Oklahoma dates usually go ahead, with some risk of stays or clemency. The Hasan execution is the likeliest to slip. A last-minute Florida warrant could add one more, though none is listed yet.

NOT FOUND: Any published odds or forecast-market prices for the total. The Indiana (Weisheit), Alabama (Taylor) and Oklahoma (Pavatt) litigation or clemency status. Any new Florida warrant for December.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-14] The Florida Supreme Court unanimously affirmed denial of postconviction relief for William Reaves (77) and refused to stay his warrant. It held his clemency and lethal-injection claims barred or meritless. Remaining routes are a US Supreme Court stay request and DeSantis, who withdrew one warrant this year (the Thompson dementia case) and has not intervened in any other. Reaves (Oct 20) is the nearest date and the state-court route is exhausted. https://www.tampafp.com/no-way-out-florida-justices-greenlight-execution-for-1986-deputy-killer/
- [2026-10-05] Jesse Guardado's warrant (Nov 5) was issued on Oct 5. The Florida Supreme Court's standard schedule runs from circuit court on Oct 19 to a reply brief on Oct 24. That leaves about 11 days for a ruling before Nov 5, the same pace that cleared Reaves. A Florida substack tracker counts 20 warrants this year; with one withdrawn, 19 would match the record only if both remaining dates proceed. Florida's warrant-to-execution process is routinely fast and rarely fails. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-jesse-guardados-execution
- [2026-10-15] Weisheit (IN, Nov 5): the Indiana Supreme Court refused to delay the clemency hearings (interview Oct 16, testimony Oct 19). Their order does not decide the motion to move the execution to Nov 19. The delay request is for 14 days only and would stay inside 2026. A federal judge approved funding for brain scans but said she lacked power to order transport. Governor Braun decides clemency after the hearings; this is the main Indiana risk. https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/15/indiana-supreme-court-wont-delay-upcoming-clemency-hearings-death-row-inmate/
- [2026-10-13] Weisheit's lawyers described the requested postponement as "narrow", which suggests they are not seeking an open-ended stay. Indiana lawmakers have called for a pause after the Tennessee failure (per WTHR). Executions in Indiana depend on the governor and the DOC drug supply. https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/13/indiana-death-row-inmate-seeks-execution-delay-brain-scans-ahead-clemency-hearings/
- [2026-08-31] Alabama (Taylor, Nov 5): Ivey set a 30-hour window from Nov 5 to Nov 6 and said she has no plans for clemency. She commuted Burton in March. The Alabama Supreme Court order serves as the warrant. Taylor's conventional appeals ended in 2016. Open issue: advocates say Alabama switched him from nitrogen to lethal injection without his election, and that no court has ruled on the switch's lawfulness. This is a method litigation risk, not a clemency one. https://yellowhammernews.com/governor-ivey-sets-execution-date-for-michael-taylor-35-years-after-he-beat-an-elderly-gadsden-couple-to-death/
- [2026-10-13] Texas (Rubio Nov 12, Dennes Nov 19): the TDCJ/DPIC lists show both active. Both lost in the 5th Circuit and US Supreme Court per Chron (Oct 2). Rubio's pentobarbital supply suit was blocked by the TCCA at Paxton's request. Texas has only a one-time 30-day governor reprieve (Abbott did not use it for Howard). The TCCA remains the main stay risk. https://tcadp.org/stop-executions/
- [2026-10-12] Hasan (military, Dec 3): Trump approved on Oct 2 and the Army order followed. His civilian lawyer Galligan called a federal habeas petition "a distinct possibility" but said no decision had been made. Hasan was notified at night with no attorney present. Hasan's direct appeals ended with the Supreme Court's denial in March 2025. Habeas relief and a stay request are the only identified path to delay. Experts say it could delay the execution by years. The OHCHR criticised the livestream. This is the least certain of the 8 dates. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-13] DPIC's page (updated Oct 13) lists exactly 8 remaining 2026 dates and no 2026 dates beyond Dec 3. Its 2027 list is Ohio only. Ohio's governor has said none will be carried out. The page notes it is updated by 12pm ET on business days. Any new warrant for 2026 would need to be a Florida one. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-14] Dependencies in order: Reaves (Oct 20), then Weisheit, Taylor and Guardado (Nov 5), then Rubio and Pavatt (Nov 12), Dennes (Nov 19), Hasan (Dec 3). Each is independent except for a shared risk. A new botched-execution headline, like Pike's, or a US Supreme Court drug ruling could halt several at once. Nothing so far shows spillover beyond Tennessee. Texas executed Howard a week after Pike. https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/texas-executes-jamaal-howard-pentobarbital-concerns-1824538
- [2026-10-14] The Pavatt vote (Oklahoma Pardon and Parole Board 3-2 against clemency) leaves courts as the remaining route. Oklahoma's June record gives no sign of a stay. https://www.kosu.org/james-pavatt-clemency-denied

BOTTOM LINE: The count is 31, so the outcome is 31 plus the number of the 8 dates that go ahead. Most of those dates (Reaves, Guardado, Taylor, Rubio, Dennes, Pavatt) face no identified live obstacle. The meaningful risks are Hasan (habeas), Weisheit (clemency or delay) and Taylor (method litigation), so the range of about 36 to 39 looks most likely.

NOT FOUND: Any stay or reprieve for Reaves, Guardado, Taylor, Rubio, Dennes or Pavatt. A ruling on Weisheit's delay motion. Any Hasan habeas filing as of Oct 15. Any new Florida 2026 warrant beyond Guardado. The DPIC execution database list itself (I read only the upcoming-executions page).

### EXPERT VIEW
I found no prediction-market or Metaculus-community forecast for the 2026 US execution total. Searches for Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus returned only generic platform pages. The sources below are the best available proxies.

- [2026-10-13] DPIC reports 31 US executions so far in 2026, after Florida executed James Robertson. That was Florida's 17th of the year. 
DPIC lists 8 remaining executions for 2026
: Reaves (FL, Oct 20), Weisheit (IN), Taylor (AL) and Guardado (FL) on Nov 5, Rubio (TX) and Pavatt (OK) on Nov 12, Dennes (TX) on Nov 19, and Hasan (military, Dec 3). The ceiling is therefore 39, as the question states. Sources: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions and https://mvsnoticias.com/mundo/2026/10/13/florida-ejecuta-a-reo-que-buscaba-la-pena-capital-749677.html
- [2026-10-13] The Wikipedia scheduled-executions list shows 9 for 2026 as of Oct 7, which includes Robertson. Ohio's many future warrants carry no real forecast value. 
Ohio's governor has said no executions will occur unless the legislature adopts a new method.
 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-13] Rick Halperin's SMU tracker marks all 8 remaining 2026 dates with an asterisk ("serious"). He cautions that stays can come at the last minute. This is the only expert-curated seriousness signal I found, and it is not a forecast. Source: https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [2026-10-15] Weisheit (IN, Nov 5): his lawyers asked the Indiana Supreme Court on Oct 12 to delay the execution to Nov 19 for brain scans. 
The court is letting the clemency hearings proceed as scheduled.
 The motion to postpone the execution itself is still pending. 
Governor Braun denied clemency to Ritchie and Ward last year.
 
As of Oct 2, no drugs had been acquired for the execution, though DOC officials said they were confident in their procedures.
 A delay to Nov 19 would still fall inside 2026. Sources: https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/15/indiana-supreme-court-wont-delay-upcoming-clemency-hearings-death-row-inmate/ and https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/10/02/indiana-plans-to-proceed-with-execution-after-botched-tennessee-attempt/
- [2026-10-13] Hasan (military, Dec 3): Robin Maher, DPIC executive director, said Hasan could delay the execution by filing a federal habeas petition. She said approval by Trump "does not mean that his execution will be imminent." 
CBS reported administration officials were "leaning against" broadcasting the execution, and CNN said they were debating whether to call off the plans.
 The CBS and CNN reports concern the livestream, not necessarily the execution itself. DPIC also lists Hasan as a firing-squad military execution. Sources: https://www.npr.org/2026/10/07/nx-s1-5993539/firing-squad-execution-nidal-hasan-fort-hood and https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/article/nidal-malik-hasan-who-killed-13-in-fort-hood-shooting-set-to-be-executed-by-firing-squad-on-livestream-124824788.html
- [2026-10-13] Tennessee: Governor Lee suspended executions after Christa Pike's failed execution on Sep 30. 
Gary Sutton's Dec 3 execution was put on hold.
 Tennessee has no remaining 2026 dates on DPIC's list. Earlier, 
Tony Carruthers got a one-year reprieve after IV-line problems in May.
 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-13] Florida has scheduled two more executions, on Oct 20 (Reaves) and Nov 5 (Guardado). 
DPIC's warrant-outcomes page shows scheduled executions failing by reprieve or clemency in several states
, including PA, OH and AL (Burton clemency on Mar 10). DeSantis withdrew the Oct 13 warrant for William Lee Thompson, citing dementia claims. Sources: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026 and https://catholicsmobilizing.org/our-work/death-penalty/executions/
- [2026-10-13] Historical comparison: 2025 had 47 executions (Florida 19), the most in 16 years. 2024 had 25 and 2023 had 24. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2025
- [2026-10-13] Amnesty USA's Justin Mazzola cited 47 executions in 2025. The Brian Lehrer segment gave no 2026 projection. Source: the AskNews item on The Brian Lehrer Show, already retrieved. I did not independently fetch the audio.
- [2026-10-15] The Weisheit and Hasan motions and reports above are the main live risks to the 2026 count. No state has had a final-week stay reported yet for the Nov 5 to Nov 19 dates. Source: https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/

BOTTOM LINE: The count is 31 now, and the realistic range is 31 to 39. The upside is capped by the 8 scheduled dates, plus any new Florida warrant that could be signed and carried out before Dec 31. Florida has been moving on a roughly 30-day warrant cycle. Hasan's habeas risk and Weisheit's delay and clemency fight are the main identified downside uncertainties. No market or expert forecaster gives a number.

NOT FOUND: Any Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus community forecast for the 2026 total. Any named analyst or DPIC projection of the year-end total. Any news of new Florida warrants beyond Nov 5.

### FAVORITE CASE
- [2026-10-15] DPIC's upcoming-executions page, read in full, still shows the same 8 remaining 2026 dates. It also says Ohio has warrants through 2030, but Gov. DeWine has said none will be carried out without a new execution method. The only 2027 dates are Ohio's, so none can be carried out in 2026. The count is 31 and the ceiling is 39. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions

- [2026-10-05] The leading outcome is that most of the 8 go ahead, giving about 37–39. DeSantis signed the Guardado warrant on Oct 5 for Nov 5, which is the 20th Florida warrant of 2026. Fox 13 and CBS Miami report that it would make Florida's 20th execution. Guardado pleaded guilty. His appeal is an ineffective-assistance claim about the penalty phase. Florida's warrant litigation runs on a standard compressed schedule. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record

- [2026-10-08] Reaves (Oct 20) lost in the Indian River County circuit court. He has appealed to the Florida Supreme Court, with a stay motion and an initial brief filed. He also raises lethal-injection protocol and clemency-process claims. The Oct 6 and Oct 8 reports cite no court action that stops the execution. The warrant designates a window from noon Oct 20 to noon Oct 27. https://www.wflx.com/2026/10/08/i-love-him-family-death-row-inmate-william-reaves-pleads-clemency-ahead-oct-20-execution/?outputType=amp

- [2026-09-17] Alabama executed Jeffery Lee by lethal injection after the nitrogen method was blocked. A federal judge rejected his 2018-settlement argument. This is a direct precedent for Taylor (Nov 5), whose date was switched from nitrogen to lethal injection the same way. Ivey has said she has no plans to grant clemency. Taylor's window runs from 12:00 a.m. Nov 5 to 6:00 a.m. Nov 6. Advocates say the Alabama Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of the method switch. https://alabamareflector.com/2026/09/17/alabama-executes-jeffery-lee-by-lethal-injection/

- [2026-08-31] Taylor's execution authority is an Alabama Supreme Court order dated June 4. Alabama's 30-hour window means a short delay would not cause the warrant to lapse. Alabama has now run two lethal-injection executions this year. https://abc3340.com/news/local/alabama-governor-sets-november-execution-window-for-michael-taylor-august-2026-1991-capital-murders-of-ivan-and-lucille-moore

- [2026-10-08] Hasan is the least certain date. His civilian lawyer John Galligan told ABC that a federal habeas petition is "a distinct possibility," but no decision has been made. The Supreme Court denied cert on his conviction in March 2025. Experts quoted by AP and Snopes say habeas could push the execution past the end of this administration. If he files, a stay before Dec 3 is plausible. Wikipedia's list of people who have exhausted their appeals shows him as having no appeals left. This is the main downside risk to 39, and the other seven are the more likely outcomes. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734

- [2026-10-08] Location conflict on Hasan: Hegseth and Army statements say Fort Hood, while one outlet (Latin Times) says Fort Leavenworth. This does not affect whether the execution counts. The fine print counts military executions even if DPIC leaves them out. The Latin Times piece says Trump approved it on Oct 2 and that this would be the first military execution since 1961. https://www.latintimes.com/fort-hood-shooter-hasan-set-die-firing-squad-december-3-one-legal-escape-hatch-that-could-599920

- [2026-10-15] Weisheit (Indiana, Nov 5): the Oct 12 motion asks to move the date to Nov 19 for brain scans. A move to Nov 19 would still count for 2026. This risk was reported in the Oct 15 21Alive and Indiana Capital Chronicle items summarised earlier. I did not re-fetch them. They give no sign of a court stay.

- [2026-10-05] Mechanism for upside: DeSantis has signed warrants roughly 2 to 4 weeks apart. The Sept 18/22 and Oct 5 signings gave 28–45 days of notice. A warrant signed by about Nov 5 could still land in early December. DPIC lists none beyond Nov 5. Florida's 17 executions against 20 warrants signed means 3 fell through. The Thompson withdrawal is one, which shows DeSantis will pull a warrant. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-jesse-guardado-execution

- [2026-10-15] Combining the above: Florida (Reaves, Guardado), Texas (Rubio, Dennes), Alabama (Taylor) and Oklahoma (Pavatt, after the Oct 14 clemency denial) are all procedurally on track. That is 7 of the 8 dates. Indiana's Weisheit is probable, and Hasan is the one clearly in doubt. The modal outcome is therefore 38 (all but Hasan) or 39. A realistic range is 36–39 with a small chance of 40 from a new Florida warrant.

BOTTOM LINE: The favourite is a final total near the top of the range, 38 or 39. Seven of the eight remaining dates sit in states with active executions and have no reported stay, and Hasan's habeas filing is the main way to lose one. Tennessee's halt after the Pike failure has not stopped Texas or Alabama, and Florida's pace shows no sign of slowing.

NOT FOUND: Any stay or ruling on Reaves from the Florida Supreme Court, whose docket I could not open. The Fort Leavenworth versus Fort Hood location conflict is unresolved. The Guardado substack URL I tried returned 404, so the Guardado details come from the Fox 13 and CBS Miami snippets. Any Texas stay for Rubio or Dennes. Any market or forecast odds. Any Florida warrant beyond Nov 5.

### UPSET CASE
Upset case: the leading outcome is presumably 38–39 (all or nearly all of the 8 remaining dates carried out). The strongest alternative is **36–37**, with **35 or below** a less likely tail. The main driver is Hasan on Dec 3, with Weisheit (Indiana) and Taylor (Alabama) as secondary risks. This is a reading of the evidence, not a probability.

- [2026-10-08] Hasan's civilian attorney John Galligan told ABC that a federal habeas filing is "a distinct possibility" but that no decision has been made. He also said the Army set the date at nearly the earliest the rules allow, 60 days after approval. The Army has no modern firing-squad procedure and Hasan is paralyzed. The Army had prepared for lethal injection and switched to firing squad after Trump's approval. A habeas petition could stall the execution past this administration, per Yale's Eugene Fidell. This is the single largest identifiable shortfall risk, and the date is about seven weeks away. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-09] Snopes, Euronews and Jurist also report an OHCHR statement and legal-experts' view. They say the livestream plan itself may invite Eighth Amendment arguments. A livestream controversy gives a habeas petition an extra claim, which makes a stay more plausible than for a routine military execution. Hasan stopped contesting his case at trial, which cuts the other way. https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/10/09/nidal-hasan-execution-livestream-legal/
- [2026-10-15] Weisheit's emergency motion (filed Oct 12) asks the Indiana Supreme Court to move the execution from Nov 5 to Nov 19. It would also push the clemency dates back by 14 days. The court refused to delay the clemency hearings, which proceed Oct 16 and Oct 19. The AG response is due Friday and the defense reply Monday, so the delay request is still undecided. Even if granted, Nov 19 is still inside 2026, so a delay alone would not lower the count. https://www.21alivenews.com/2026/10/15/indiana-supreme-court-wont-delay-upcoming-clemency-hearings-death-row-inmate/
- [2026-10-12] The Weisheit motion itself says the state asked for a date only nine days after federal habeas ended. It says the brain-trauma evidence was never presented in any court. It states that the Indiana Supreme Court alone has authority to stay an execution. A federal judge approved funding for the scans but said she could not order transport. Indiana had not yet acquired its drugs as of early October. That is a logistics risk after the Pike failure with the same drug, pentobarbital. https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/JAW-2026.10.12-mtn.short_.stay_.pdf
- [2026-08-31] Alabama's Taylor warrant is a lethal-injection execution. Alabama originally obtained it on a nitrogen-hypoxia basis. A federal court then held the nitrogen protocol unconstitutional, and the state switched to lethal injection. Advocates say Taylor never elected that method and that the Alabama Supreme Court declined to rule on the switch. Alabama carried out the same switch for Jeffery Lee on Sept 17, which suggests it will probably work for Taylor too. Ivey says she has no current plan to grant clemency, but she commuted Burton in March. Window: Nov 5 12:00am to Nov 6 6:00am. https://alabamareflector.com/2026/09/17/alabama-executes-jeffery-lee-by-lethal-injection/ ; https://abc3340.com/news/local/alabama-governor-sets-november-execution-window-for-michael-taylor-august-2026-1991-capital-murders-of-ivan-and-lucille-moore
- [2026-10-09] DeSantis withdrew Thompson's warrant, the first withdrawal of his tenure, after an insanity-panel process. Thompson remains on death row and a new warrant could be signed later. This shows Florida's pace is not mechanical. Reaves is 77 and Guardado is 64; Reaves has appealed to the Florida Supreme Court. A similar competency intervention for Reaves would cut the total. https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-13/florida-to-execute-a-prisoner-who-killed-his-cellmate-in-hopes-of-getting-a-death-sentence
- [2026-10-05] Florida signed Guardado's warrant 31 days before Nov 5. Florida's warrants run about 30 days ahead. WUSF said four Florida executions were planned over about two weeks. Only Reaves and Guardado remain, because Thompson was withdrawn. No Florida warrant beyond Nov 5 has been reported. Any new Florida warrant would likely need to be signed by about Nov 20–25 to land in 2026. In Dec 2025 Florida did schedule executions on Dec 9 and Dec 18 (signed in Nov), so a December upside to 40 is possible, but only if one is signed soon. https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-05/desantis-signs-warrant-for-record-20th-execution-in-florida-this-year ; https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/miami/news/florida-man-mark-geralds-1989-murder-execution-set
- [2026-10-13] This one is not a mechanism for an upset. Nine of the 10 Florida, Texas, Alabama, Indiana and Oklahoma dates still running have no reported stay or reprieve. Oklahoma's Pavatt was denied clemency 3-2 (Oct 14, already noted). The upset case therefore rests on Hasan plus roughly one other slip, not on broad failure. A 36–37 result needs only two to three dates to fall out of the eight. https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-13/florida-to-execute-a-prisoner-who-killed-his-cellmate-in-hopes-of-getting-a-death-sentence
- [2026-10-09] The Pike-failure effect is limited to Tennessee so far. Pentobarbital states (Texas, Indiana) said they would proceed. Late-stage litigation from Pike's failure could still affect Indiana (drugs not yet acquired) and Texas (Rubio, Dennes) in November. I found no filings for Texas. https://www.clickorlando.com/news/2026/10/09/florida-execution-called-off-after-desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-the-first-time/

BOTTOM LINE: The best-supported alternative to the "all 8 go ahead" leader (39) is 38 if only Hasan slips, and 36–37 if Hasan plus one or two others slip (Weisheit, Taylor, Reaves). Hasan's habeas risk is the main driver. The upside tail to 40 requires a new Florida warrant signed by about late November.

NOT FOUND: DPIC's full 2026 execution list. Any stay filed for Texas's Rubio or Dennes, or for Oklahoma's Pavatt. Any decision on Weisheit's delay motion. Any Hasan habeas filing as of Oct 15. Any new Florida warrant beyond Nov 5. Any market price.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources show the outcome already decided as of today? If so, which option and by which source.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market for these options, treat its prices as a strong prior and name the specific evidence it lacks whenever you move away from it. A RELATED market is context only. If no market is listed, there is none — do not assume one.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "Fewer than 39": <prob>,
        "39": <prob>,
        "40": <prob>,
        "41": <prob>,
        "More than 41": <prob>
  },
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would change your leading option or move it by 10+ points if false; [] if none>"]
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).