Will Haiti hold the first round of its presidential election before December 14, 2026?

- [2026-10-06] The CEP postponed the official campaign, which was due to start Oct 5. It extended candidate registration from Oct 9 to Oct 31. Its statement dropped any mention of an election date and promised a revised calendar "as soon as possible". Voter registration continues. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-07] An anonymous CEP member told AFP that the Dec 13 date "no longer stands" and that a new timetable is being drafted. AFP and Le Devoir/La 1ère describe the vote as postponed "sine die". The council's written statement did not formally cancel Dec 13. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Wire reports (UPI, Breitbart) say the first round is suspended or postponed indefinitely, with no new date. The original schedule was a first round on Dec 13 and a runoff on Feb 21, 2027. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/10/07/latam-haiti-election-postponement/4031791391542
- [2026-10-11] The Council of Ministers amended the June 2 electoral decree on Oct 5, and it was published Oct 6. This was the third rewrite in four months. Candidate fees were cut, but the presidential fee stays at 2 million gourdes. Thresholds of 30,000 members for parties and 150,000 supporters for independents remain. The Haitian Times says the timetable "remains uncertain". https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/11/haiti-lowers-candidate-registration-fees-upcoming-elections/
- [2026-10-13] Interim PM Fils-Aimé visited the CEP with police (PNH) and army (FAd'H) chiefs, exactly two months before Dec 13. Rezo Nòdwès says the date is "strongly compromised". The CEP's provisional tally that morning was 15 presidential candidacies, 293 for the Senate and 989 for the Chamber. No new date had been announced. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/
- [2026-10-07] Voter registration stood at about 769,000 as of Oct 6, up from 628,755 in the CEP's September tally. That is roughly 10% of the electorate. Registration began July 20 and initially excluded the West Department (Port-au-Prince). https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Several gang-held municipalities have no registration centres. Road closures have blocked delivery of electoral materials. The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force is being deployed only slowly. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-07-27] The CEP's calendar of July 26–27 set the first round for Dec 13, conditional on adequate security and funding. That calendar is the baseline now being revised. https://deultimominuto.net/en/uncategorized/haiti-postpones-the-first-round-of-presidential-and-legislative-elections-to-december-13/
- [2026-10-12] The Miami Herald reports that Dec 13 "is expected to be postponed". It also reports France urging credible elections after the financial eligibility rules were eased. A UN Security Council sanctions discussion is due Thursday (Oct 15). A UN briefing by Carlos Ruiz Massieu is set for Oct 22. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
- [2026-10-12] UN rights chief Türk reports at least 5,800 people killed or injured in 2026. About 1.5 million people are displaced. https://www.repubblica.it/solidarieta/emergenza/2026/10/12/news/haiti_gang_violenza_elezioni_presidenziali-425643500/
- [2026-10-06] The Haïti Policy House tracker (updated Oct 6) says dates after Oct 31 are from the old schedule and unconfirmed until the CEP publishes a revised calendar. https://www.haitipolicyhouse.org/haiti-election-tracker
- Upcoming before Dec 14: the candidate registration deadline on Oct 31, and the CEP's revised calendar (undated). Any candidate-list validation and campaign period must also fit before a vote.

BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 14, the CEP has dropped Dec 13 from its official communications, and a council member says it no longer stands. No replacement date has been published, and candidate registration runs to Oct 31. Voter registration is about 10% of the electorate, and gangs still control much of the capital. This points strongly against a first-round vote before Dec 14.

NOT FOUND: A published revised CEP calendar or new first-round date. An official CEP statement formally cancelling Dec 13. Any CEP primary page (cepha.ht or similar), which I did not fetch directly. Any scheduled voting event before Dec 14.

- [2026-10-07] The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) postponed the campaign period and removed any mention of a vote date. A council member told AFP that "the December 13 date no longer stands", and that a new timetable is being drafted. The written statement did not formally cancel the date. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia now says the elections were "postponed indefinitely on 7 October 2026". It lists the election date as TBD, and says the elections have been repeatedly delayed since 2019. Haiti has held no national election since 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Haitian_general_election
- [2026-10-06] The campaign was originally due to start Oct 5, and the July calendar had it running to Dec 12. Candidate registration was extended to Oct 31. A revised calendar is promised, and the CEP has not said whether it will move the first round into 2027. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-11] The Haitian Times says the electoral calendar "remains unsettled", and that the CEP has not clarified whether the first round will slip into next year. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/11/haiti-lowers-candidate-registration-fees-upcoming-elections
- [2026-10-12] The Miami Herald (via the AskNews summary) says the Dec 13 date is "expected to be postponed". It also reports that the electoral rules were revised for the third time in four months. I could not open the page itself. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
- [2026-10-07] Only 769,000 voters had registered since July 20. Some gang-held municipalities have no registration centres, and road closures have blocked delivery of electoral materials. About 1.5 million of Haiti's 11 million people are displaced. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force has about 1,500 of its planned 5,500 personnel. The UN Security Council extended its mandate by six months. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-07-27] Outside view, the CEP's own calendar was conditional on security and funding: it set Dec 13 for round one and Feb 21, 2027 for round two. https://www.riotimesonline.com/haiti-election-13-december-us-travellers-2026/
- [2026-03-28] Earlier in 2026 the government paused the process after rejecting the CEP's budget. The Aug 30 first-round date was already moved to Dec 13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Haitian_general_election
- [2025-11-17] Base rate: every date set since 2019 has been missed. Elections were set for Oct 2019, Sep 2021 and Nov 7, 2021. Henry then dissolved the CEP in Sep 2021, and 2022–23 targets lapsed. Targets of Nov 2025 and Feb 7, 2026 failed, and the Aug 30, 2026 date was replaced by Dec 13. That is roughly 6 or more consecutive misses and no national vote in about 10 years. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prochaine_%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_ha%C3%AFtienne
- [2026-09-03] The NYT headline says officials set Dec 13 but "many experts say" violence is likely to force a postponement. I found no betting-market or poll odds. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/americas/haiti-election-gangs.html
- [2016] Historical precedent: Haiti's 2015–16 cycle was repeatedly rescheduled. The Dec 2015 runoff was postponed, and the rerun was held on Oct 9, 2016 (later moved by Hurricane Matthew). Delays of weeks to months are normal even in better conditions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Haitian_presidential_election

BOTTOM LINE: The outside view points strongly to NO. Haiti has missed every election date since 2019, and the CEP itself says Dec 13 "no longer stands" while candidate registration runs to Oct 31. A first round before Dec 14 would need a reversal within days of the official postponement.

NOT FOUND: Any betting-market or forecasting-platform odds. A published revised CEP calendar. A formal statement that Dec 13 is cancelled. The full text of the NYT article, because the Haitian Times and Miami Herald pages could not be fetched.

- [2026-07-27] The CEP's primary calendar note (fetched via HaitiDocs) shows how much of the schedule lay ahead of a Dec 13 vote.
  - Candidate registration was due to close Oct 2. It is now Oct 31, a slip of 29 days.
  - The campaign was to run Oct 5–Dec 12. It is now postponed with no dates.
  - Rolls were to be published Nov 13 (D-30).
  - Polling-station staff were being recruited until Nov 21.
  - Sensitive materials were to be procured and distributed before the vote.
  - Dec 13 was already conditional on security and funding.
  - The Oct 31 filing close plus an unscheduled candidate-vetting step leaves roughly 6 weeks. The July plan had the campaign alone running about 10 weeks. https://www.haitidocs.org/doc/cep-calendrier-2026-07-publication-officielle

- [2026-10-06] The official CEP/HaitiLibre text (fetched) is the primary statement.
  - It reschedules the campaign and says the "new dates" will be communicated later.
  - It says an updated calendar reflecting the amended decree and the "technical and operational requirements" is being finalised.
  - It does not mention Dec 13, so no source has formally cancelled or reaffirmed that date.
  - The government, via the Council of Ministers, controls the decree. The CEP controls the calendar. https://www.haitilibre.com/article-48599-haiti-flash-nouvelles-modifications-du-decret-electoral-ce-que-l-on-sait.html

- [2026-09-16] Driver 1 is the legal and administrative sequence. The CEP had already extended candidate registration once (to Oct 9) at the "insistent" request of parties. It said then it was discussing changes to the decree. The decree rewrite on Oct 5–6 came after that, so the calendar has been rebuilt twice in 3 weeks. Parties and the transitional government control this process. https://www.juno7.ht/cep-prolonge-inscription-candidats-9-octobre-2026/

- [2026-10-13] Driver 2 is the government's security push. Fils-Aimé went to the CEP with the police and army chiefs, which Rezo Nòdwès read as Dec 13 "fortement compromises". The outlet also notes growing calls from parties for his removal. This is a sign of coordination, not a new date. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/

- [2026-10-09] Driver 3 is the Gang Suppression Force. The FRG/GSF "operational launch" ceremony was Oct 8 at Vertières (Tabarre).
  - UNSC Res. 2829 (Sept 29) extended its authorisation to Mar 31, 2027. About 1,500 personnel were deployed by late September, per Reuters.
  - The 5,500-troop ceiling was a goal for October, and the August plan aimed for 2,000–2,500 by August. That target was clearly missed.
  - The force is the main external control over whether polling is feasible. https://lunionsuite.com/haiti-officially-launches-gang-repression-force-as-government-pushes-to-regain-control-of-gang-held-areas and https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-48232-haiti-flash-deployment-schedule-for-the-gang-supression-force-gsf.html

- [2026-05-11] Fils-Aimé himself said in May that the August vote had to be postponed because of insecurity. The draft decree submitted Apr 24 was not approved by ministers until the June 2 decree. Government approval has been a repeated bottleneck. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_parlementaires_ha%C3%AFtiennes_de_2026

- [2026-10-13] Driver 4 is the candidate pool, which is still provisional. The CEP's board shows 15 presidential filings, up from 7 on Sept 21, with the window open to Oct 31. The Oct 6 decree cut fees but kept the party and independent support thresholds. Vetting and challenges have no published timeline. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/

- [2026-10-14] Driver 5 is funding and the external environment. The July calendar made the vote conditional on both security and funding. France's embassy (Oct 12) is pressing on candidate integrity, and the UN Panel of Experts report (Oct 2025–Jul 2026) alleges politician links to gangs. The Oct 15 UNSC discussion and the Oct 22 Ruiz Massieu briefing are the next external checkpoints. Those events are not control points for the date.

- [2026-10-14] Sequence needed for YES:
  - (1) The CEP publishes a revised calendar that keeps a first round on or before Dec 13.
  - (2) Candidate filing closes Oct 31 and vetting finishes within days.
  - (3) A campaign is compressed into November–early December.
  - (4) Rolls are published and materials are delivered, including to gang-adjacent areas.
  - (5) The GSF and police secure the polling places.
  - Step 1 has not happened. A CEP member told AFP on Oct 7 that Dec 13 "no longer stands". Any date earlier than Dec 13 is not plausible.
  - Only a vote starting on Dec 13 or earlier counts, so the Dec 13 date would have to be reinstated.

BOTTOM LINE: Every causal driver — decree, candidate vetting, voter rolls, security force and funding — is behind its July schedule. The CEP's Oct 6 statement dropped Dec 13 and the calendar is being rebuilt. Resolving YES would require the CEP to reverse that and meet a compressed timetable with no published steps.

NOT FOUND: A revised CEP calendar or any new first-round date. A formal CEP statement cancelling or reaffirming Dec 13. The CEP's own Oct 6 statement on cephaiti.ht (I only read the HaitiLibre reproduction). The full text of the Oct 6 amended decree. A funding figure or gap for the election. Any current official voter-registration number later than Oct 6.

- [2026-10-07] The CEP (Haiti's electoral council) postponed the campaign period and published no new vote date. 
A CEP member told AFP "the December 13 date no longer stands" and that a new timetable is being drafted.
 
Only 769,000 voters had registered as of Oct 6.
 I confirmed this on the fetched France 24 page. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Breitbart, citing AFP, reports that a CEP member said 3–4 million registered voters would be needed for a reasonably comprehensive vote. The CEP also moved the candidate filing deadline from Oct 9 to Oct 31. https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2026/10/07/haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-amid-political-instability-and-gang-violence/
- [2026-10-12] The Miami Herald (fetched) reports the transitional authorities loosened candidate eligibility rules. Its AskNews summary says the Dec 13 date "is expected to be postponed". The article text I could read did not state that line directly. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
- [2026-10-13] Caribbean Life says few observers were surprised by the postponement. It notes only about 800,000 people, roughly 10% of eligible voters, had registered. https://www.caribbeanlife.com/haiti-postpones-first-elections-decade/
- [2026-10-07] Caribbean Life (Oct 7) says the Dec 13 vote is postponed. It adds that the Feb 2027 runoff is also in doubt. https://www.caribbeanlife.com/haiti-postpones-buildup-to-troubled-december-elections/
- [2026-09-03] The NYT, in the question's own description, says experts expect extreme violence to force a postponement. That was before the CEP's Oct 6 move. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/americas/haiti-election-gangs.html
- [2026-09-09] Metaculus, a sister question ("before Sept 1, 2026"), resolved No. It had 19 forecasters and its last community figure shown was 30%. That question was overtaken by the Dec 13 date, so it tells us little about this one. I found no live Metaculus page for the Dec 14 question. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43496/will-haiti-hold-the-1st-round-of-its-presidential-election-before-sept-1-2026/
- [2026-10-14] Polymarket lists a market titled "Haiti elections delayed again?" with about $14.5K volume. Its price did not appear in the page text, and it is thin. https://polymarket.com/predictions/haiti
- [2026-07-23] Track record: Haiti's first-round date has slipped repeatedly. The CEP set Aug 30, 2026 in Nov–Dec 2025, then Dec 13 in July 2026. The CEP president tied the calendar to an acceptable security climate and to timely funding. https://canada-haiti.ca/content/haiti-elections-cep-proposes-december-13-2026-first-round-and-february-21-2027-runoff
- [2026-09-23] Before the postponement, the CEP still said it was working toward Dec 13. It reported 7 presidential candidates registered and 628,755 voters on the roll as of Sept 21. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/09/23/haiti-elections-candidate-voter-registration-updates/
- [2026-10-14] IFES Election Guide still lists Dec 13, 2026 as "Confirmed". Wikipedia also still shows Dec 13. Both are stale relative to the CEP's Oct 6 statement. https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/4663/
- [2026-10-12] Security backdrop: the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force has about 1,500 of a planned 5,500 personnel. About 1.5 million people are displaced. Gang-controlled municipalities lack registration centres. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations

BOTTOM LINE: The CEP itself says Dec 13 "no longer stands", the registration shortfall is large, and the press consensus is that the vote is delayed. I found no source forecasting a presidential first round before Dec 14. Any new date would have to be earlier than Dec 14, which is very unlikely given the Oct 31 candidate filing deadline.

NOT FOUND: Polymarket's current price (the page showed volume only). Kalshi and Manifold Haiti markets. A live Metaculus question for the Dec 14 deadline. Any new CEP calendar. Named expert quotes from the NYT piece, because I could not fetch it.

YES means: official popular voting begins in Haiti's 2026 presidential first round on or before Dec 13, 2026, which is before Dec 14, 2026.

- [2026-10-06] The only formal CEP act on Oct 5–6 postponed the campaign and extended candidate registration. The CEP's note did not cancel Dec 13. It said new campaign dates would follow once the calendar was updated, and that the calendar would integrate the decree changes and the "technical and operational constraints" of the polls. The Haitian Times subheadline said the CEP was "maintaining the Dec. 13 first-round vote for now". The Haitian Times blocked my fetch, so that framing comes from its search snippet. The Rezo Nòdwès text confirms the campaign postponement. This is the thinnest YES hook: Dec 13 is not legally repealed, and the "no longer stands" line comes from an anonymous council member. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-le-cep-prolonge-linscription-des-candidats-et-reporte-la-campagne-electorale/
- [2026-10-13] A Latin Post piece dated the same day still described Dec 13 as "locked in" and the campaign as running Oct 5 to Dec 12. This reflects the stale official calendar, not a new decision, so it is weak evidence. It also reported that only 21 of 105 parties had cleared the 30,000-member bar as of Sept 3, and that registration was about 12%. https://www.latinpost.com/articles/167616/20261013/haitis-new-election-law-could-wipe-out-most-its-316-political-parties-before-anyone-casts-vote.htm
- [2026-08-17] The PM said the elections will take place this year "no matter what". The pledge is to 2026, not to Dec 13 specifically, so a slip into late December would still satisfy it. Dec 14–31 would still resolve NO. Fetched. https://www.caribbeannationalweekly.com/posts/haiti-prime-minister-vows-elections-will-take-place-this-year
- [2026-08-17] Operational steps ran in parallel on the Dec 13 calendar: 17 of 18 political groups approved, and 36 new registration centres added in the West Department alongside 29 existing ones. A CEP delegation was to tour diaspora countries. The calendar also had preliminary results on Dec 19. The machinery was built for Dec 13 and has not been formally dismantled. Fetched. https://www.caribbeannationalweekly.com/posts/haiti-prime-minister-vows-elections-will-take-place-this-year
- [2026-10-08] Security hook: the GSF's operational launch ceremony was held on Oct 8 at Vertières, led by the PM. It is authorised to grow to about 5,500 personnel, and about 1,500 were deployed in late September. UNSC Resolution 2829 extended the mandate to Mar 31, 2027. This is a positive signal for security, but the force is far below strength. https://lunionsuite.com/haiti-officially-launches-gang-repression-force-as-government-pushes-to-regain-control-of-gang-held-areas
- [2026-09-29] CFR notes the GSF began operations in June 2026. It says gangs still hold three of ten provinces, which implies that seven are not gang-held. A partial-territory vote is conceivable in principle. The CFR page also logs the Oct 7 indefinite postponement, so it is not supportive of YES. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-haiti
- [2026-07-27] UN Security Council members (Latvia and others) pressed for "a clear and realistic electoral calendar". The UN line that security challenges must not become a reason to delay the political process is the international pressure that could push officials to hold a thin vote. No funder has been reported demanding Dec 13 specifically. https://press.un.org/en/2026/sc16417.doc.htm
- [2026-07-27] The calendar itself was conditional on "an acceptable security climate" and funds. The Dec 13 date is therefore contingent by design, not a firm commitment. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260727-haiti-sets-december-presidential-election-despite-security-concerns
- [2026-10-13] Single most likely path to YES: the CEP publishes its revised calendar and keeps Dec 13, or moves the first round to a nearby date before Dec 14. It would have to do so while:
  - candidate filing closes Oct 31;
  - candidate lists are validated and ballots printed within about 6 weeks;
  - the PM's government, with police and army chiefs, backs a symbolic or partial vote.
  Fils-Aimé's Oct 13 visit to the CEP with security chiefs is consistent with this path. I found no source reporting that the CEP reaffirmed Dec 13. That is an inference, not a confirmed fact. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/
- [2026-10-14] Counter-evidence: IFES still lists Dec 13 as "Confirmed", but the page was not updated after the Oct 6 CEP statement. https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/4663/

BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on the fact that Dec 13 was never formally repealed and on the PM's "no matter what" pledge. The path requires the CEP to reverse its Oct 6 signals and finish candidate validation, ballots and logistics in under 6 weeks after the Oct 31 filing close. I found no source showing that reversal.

NOT FOUND: A CEP statement reaffirming Dec 13. A published revised calendar. A fetchable Haitian Times, NYT or Miami Herald full text. Any official source naming an earlier or alternative pre-Dec 14 date. Current Polymarket odds.

YES means: Official popular voting begins in Haiti for the presidential first round on or before Dec 13, 2026 (i.e., before Dec 14, 2026).

- [2026-07-27] The CEP's own calendar table (fetched) shows the arithmetic. Electoral rolls were due to be published Nov 13 (D-30). Polling-station staff recruitment ran to Nov 21. Sensitive and non-sensitive materials were to be distributed before the vote. A 5 Oct–12 Dec campaign was built in. Candidate registration was due to close Oct 2, which is 72 days before Dec 13. Candidate filing now runs to Oct 31, which leaves 43 days. The CEP has not said whether the validation, challenge and ballot-printing steps fit into that window. https://www.haitidocs.org/doc/cep-calendrier-2026-07-publication-officielle
- [2026-07-27] The calendar's own conditions on security and funding were never certified as met. The calendar and the CEP note (ref. CEP/DC/028-2526) say the dates depend on them. The Oct 6 statement then dropped all mention of a vote date. This is a formal exit from the schedule, not only a rumour. https://www.haitidocs.org/doc/cep-calendrier-2026-07-publication-officielle
- [2026-10-06] Fetched Haitian Times page: the CEP "has not officially replaced" Dec 13. It says the previously published timetable "is no longer being followed in full". The campaign, which has to precede any vote, has no dates. A revised calendar is the "next major marker". That calendar must come first. Any new date would very likely fall after Dec 13, since a 43-day gap between candidate filing and the vote is already very tight. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-06] The same page says candidate filing was already extended once, to Oct 9 in September, and then to Oct 31. Each slip cuts into the downstream steps. Political actors are still contesting the process: one coalition leader attacked the Oct 5 government neutrality resolution. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-07] CFR's conflict tracker lists the event as "Haiti Indefinitely Postpones Elections". It says gangs control about 90% of Port-au-Prince and three of ten provinces. The Gang Suppression Force only began operating in June 2026. Its mandate runs to Mar 31, 2027. The security precondition therefore cannot plausibly be met by mid-December. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-haiti
- [2026-10-06] AFP, via the Jamaica Observer, says the vote was "indefinitely postponed". The GSF has about 1,500 of 5,500 planned personnel. The UN Security Council's late-September resolution stresses security "conducive" to elections, which suggests the conditions had not yet been met. https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2026/10/06/crisis-stricken-haiti-postpones-elections/
- [2026-10-13] Resolution technicality: a Yes needs actual voting to begin before Dec 14. Announcements, candidate lists or a campaign do not count. Stale sources do not change this. Latin Post (Oct 13) still says Dec 13 is "locked in" and the campaign "underway as of October 5". That contradicts the CEP's Oct 6 postponement, so it is wrong. Stale pages such as IFES, Wikipedia and Latin Post should not be read as evidence for a Dec 13 vote. https://www.latinpost.com/articles/167616/20261013/haitis-new-election-law-could-wipe-out-most-its-316-political-parties-before-anyone-casts-vote.htm
- [2026-10-13] Latin Post's own figures: only 21 of 105 approved political organizations had cleared the 30,000-endorser threshold as of Sept 3, and verification was due Oct 14. Registration was about 12% of voters. Parties are being filtered out before candidate lists even exist. https://www.latinpost.com/articles/167616/20261013/haitis-new-election-law-could-wipe-out-most-its-316-political-parties-before-anyone-casts-vote.htm
- [2026-10-07] Voter registration runs on. The CEP said it is continuing, which is incompatible with a roll that is final by Nov 13. A vote on Dec 13 would need 3–4 million registrants (per the colleague report) and cannot be reached from roughly 0.77–0.8 million. Registration was only opened in the West Department after July 20. https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-amid-gang-violence
- [2026-07-27] The pattern of misses is in the official record. The calendar of Nov 2025 and its Dec 23 revision fixed Aug 30. The government paused the process in March and then moved the date to Dec 13. Each previous deadline was dropped within weeks of the CEP reaffirming it. The Haitian Times of Jan 6, 2026 said authorities "repeatedly failed" to meet deadlines. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/01/06/haiti-cep-maintains-elections-august-30-2026/
- [2026-10-12] Status-quo inertia favours NO. The interim government's stated aim is an elected president installed by Feb 7, 2027. That aim is a political reason to hold the vote, but it can be met by a vote in Jan–Feb with a round-two timeline compressed. Nothing found shows any actor pushing for a vote earlier than Dec 14. No scheduled event before Dec 14 would let voting begin earlier.

BOTTOM LINE: A Yes would need the CEP to reverse its Oct 6 postponement and run an unusually compressed schedule. The roll, the candidate list, the campaign and security would all have to be finished in under 9 weeks, while candidate filing stays open to Oct 31. Every prior Haitian date since 2019 has been missed, so status quo and deadline arithmetic both point to NO.

NOT FOUND: A published revised CEP calendar or new first-round date. A formal CEP statement cancelling Dec 13. The NYT article text. Any official source or credible forecaster expecting a vote before Dec 14. Current Polymarket pricing.

10 AskNews articles (newest first; 5 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-13] Four Nations Urge Palestine to Reconsider Election Delay
沖縄タイムス＋プラス — https://www.okinawatimes.co.jp/articles/-/1944028
  - On October 13, 2026, the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia issued a joint statement expressing 'deep regret' over the Palestinian Authority's decision to postpone its Council elections.
  - According to the statement, the postponement, which delays the first elections since 2006 (a 20-year gap), risks undermining public trust in democratic institutions as a generation reaches adulthood without the opportunity to elect their representatives.
  - The four foreign ministers argued that strengthening the Palestinian Authority's governance is a necessary foundation for achieving future 'two-state coexistence' with Israel.
  - The postponement was announced by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on October 10, 2026, via a presidential decree shifting the Council elections from November 2026 to September 2027, while simultaneously scheduling presidential elections.

[2026-10-12] Haiti Gang Violence Intensifies Ahead of December 2026 Elections
La Repubblica.it — https://www.repubblica.it/solidarieta/emergenza/2026/10/12/news/haiti_gang_violenza_elezioni_presidenziali-425643500/
  - As Haiti prepares for presidential elections scheduled for December 13, 2026, the country is experiencing intensifying violence driven by approximately 300 armed criminal groups, with 70-75% concentrated in the capital, Port-au-Prince.
  - According to Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 5,800 people have been killed or seriously injured since the beginning of 2026 due to gang brutality.
  - These groups, estimated to have between 10,000 and 15,000 members with roughly 50% being minors, control significant territory through violent conflicts.
  - Major coalitions include the G9 Famila, led by former police officer Jimmy 'Barbecue' Chérizier, and its rival G-Pèp, along with the Viv Ansanm alliance.
  - Reports indicate that since January 2026, gangs have kidnapped over 230 people and raped approximately 1,000 women.
  - Investigations by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reveal that the majority of weapons, including AK-47s and AR-15s, enter Haiti from the United States, specifically Florida, via commercial shipping and air routes, often concealed in legitimate cargo.
  - This flow continues despite an embargo, facilitated by a network involving US front buyers, Haitian political and economic elites who fund gangs for power and profit, and corrupt customs officials.
  - Additionally, diverted National Police munitions and private security contractors contribute to the arms supply.

[2026-10-12] France Calls for Credible Elections in Haiti After Financial Rules Eased
miamiherald.com — https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
  - Following the elimination of strict financial requirements for candidates in Haiti's upcoming elections, France has called for a credible electoral process.
  - The Embassy of France in Haiti, represented by Ambassador Lekens, stated that previous rules requiring proof of no insolvency or five years of tax compliance have been removed, leaving only a requirement to be current on taxes.
  - Lekens, who arrived in Haiti three weeks ago, emphasized that candidates must meet integrity standards to ensure a free and democratic election.
  - This move follows a scathing U.N.
  - Panel of Experts report (covering October 2025 to July 2026) alleging that former parliamentarians and a mayor facilitated gang attacks.
  - While the EU has sanctioned nine individuals, including former President Michel Martelly and former senators Youri Latortue and Rony Célestin, the U.N. sanctions list currently includes only one politician.
  - Despite the U.N.
  - Security Council meeting on Thursday in New York to discuss sanctions renewal, and a scheduled briefing by U.N.
  - Special Representative Carlos Ruiz Massieu on October 22, the Trump administration has remained publicly silent on the decree changes.
  - Haiti has scheduled its general election for December 13, though the date is expected to be postponed after the Provisional Electoral Council extended deadlines.

[2026-10-12] Experts Warn of Fragmentation Risks from Latin America's Second-Round Voting System
almomento.mx — https://almomento.mx/observan-especialistas-de-la-unam-desventajas-en-segunda-vuelta-electoral-en-al/
  - Experts from the UNAM and other institutions warn that the second-round voting system (balotaje) in Latin America tends to fragment political parties and hinder governability.
  - Diego Valadés Ríos, a researcher at the UNAM's Institute of Legal Research, stated that the dispersion of parties in Congress makes coalition-building difficult.
  - The discussion, held on October 12, 2026, in Mexico City, highlighted that while the goal of the second round is to ensure the winner has broad legitimacy and an absolute majority, the system may create 'the illusion of the runoff' because it does not address legislative fragmentation.
  - Fernando Tuesta Soldevilla from the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru noted that the Latin American model imports only parts of the French design, which originally included sequential voting for president and parliament to encourage strategic voting.
  - In contrast, Latin America applies the second round only to the presidency, leaving the parliament fragmented, which is particularly problematic in presidential systems.
  - Cinthya McClintock from George Washington University pointed out that in countries like Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Paraguay, the relative majority system (plurality) has allowed leaders like Daniel Ortega, Hugo Chávez, and Santiago Peña to win without an absolute majority.
  - She also noted that in El Salvador, Nayib Bukele seeks a relative majority to lead with 30-40% of the vote, relying on a divided opposition.
  - Fernando Barrientos del Monte from the University of Guanajuato added that while the second round was intended to ensure presidential legitimacy, it often fragments the party system, as seen in Brazil, where the Congress remains divided.
  - He emphasized that since the 1980s, the candidate with the most votes in the first round has typically won the second round in the region.

[2026-10-12] Caribbean News Roundup: Electoral Shifts, Tourism Investments, and Regional Developments
Caribbean News RoundUp — https://www.buzzsprout.com/1633408/episodes/19944850-457-caribbean-news-round-up-episode-2-october-2026.mp3
  - In the October 12, 2026, episode of 'Pulse of the Caribbean News Roundup', host Keisha Bliden covers major regional developments.
  - In Haiti, transitional authorities revised electoral rules for the third time in four months, extending the candidate registration deadline to October 31st, while the first round of voting is scheduled for December 13th.
  - The Provisional Electoral Council notes that only 769,000 voters have been registered as of October 6th amidst violence that has displaced 1.5 million of the country's 11 million residents.
  - In Grenada, Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell declared a general election for November 5th, a year ahead of the 2027 constitutional deadline, with Emmeline Pierre expected to lead the opposition New National Party.
  - In Antigua and Barbuda, Foreign Minister E.
  - P.
  - Chet Green was elected vice president of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) during its 41st session in Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic.
  - Nevis Island Assembly enacted four bills on October 6th to strengthen financial services oversight, with Premier Mark Brantley emphasizing the need for international standards.
  - Guyana's President Dr. Irfaan Ali urged regional governments and investors to invest in infrastructure, resilience, and technology, warning that the Caribbean must diversify beyond natural beauty to compete with Gulf states, Brazil, and Mexico.
  - Meanwhile, Carnival Corporation plans to shift more fleet to Europe, with a projected 50-50 split between Caribbean and European deployments by 2027-2028 due to oversupply in the Caribbean.

[2026-10-11] Haiti Elections Postponed for Third Time Amidst Violence and Political Uncertainty
Le Monde.fr — https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/10/11/apres-le-report-des-elections-en-haiti-sur-fond-de-violence-la-transition-politique-bascule-dans-l-incertitude_6791785_3210.html
  - In Haiti, the presidential and legislative elections, with the first round originally scheduled for December 13, 2026, have been postponed for the third time in one year.
  - According to Le Monde.fr, the period initially set for the electoral campaign has also been delayed.
  - The report notes that the political transition in Haiti is now moving into a state of uncertainty against a backdrop of violence.

[2026-10-09] Haiti Indefinitely Postpones Elections Amidst Gang Violence and Political Instability
Deutsche Welle — https://www.dw.com/pt-br/h%C3%A1-10-anos-sem-elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-haiti-cancela-pleito-e-vive-transi%C3%A7%C3%A3o-sem-fim/a-79620352
  - Haiti, the poorest country in the Americas, has indefinitely postponed its presidential and legislative elections originally scheduled for December 2026, marking the end of a decade without national votes.
  - The country has been governed by a transitional Presidential Council since the resignation of Ariel Henry in 2024, with Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé currently leading the administration.
  - The election delay is attributed to severe gang violence, a lack of security, and insufficient electoral preparation.
  - According to the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP), a new electoral calendar will be released as soon as possible, pending the resolution of 'technical and operational requirements.' Experts emphasize the severity of the crisis: Eduardo Gamarra, a political science professor at Florida International University (FIU), stated that 'Haiti does not have the necessary conditions to hold elections,' noting that the government effectively controls only Pétion-Ville, an upscale area of the capital, Port-au-Prince.
  - Diego da Rin, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), added that the ambitious schedule published in July was 'clearly unfulfillable.' The humanitarian toll is significant; UN data indicates that at least 5,700 people have been killed or injured by gangs or counter-gang operations this year, while nearly 1.5 million people have been displaced.
  - Furthermore, the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force, intended to comprise 5,500 members, currently operates with less than one-third of its authorized strength.
  - Gangs are reported to control the coastal strip, ports, roads, and fuel supplies, collecting illegal tolls.
  - Additionally, the electoral voter registry remains incomplete, having excluded the Ouest Department (where Port-au-Prince is located) due to security concerns.
  - Experts warn that without a concrete security plan, the country risks remaining in a 'transition without end.'.

[2026-07-28] Haiti Postpones Presidential and Legislative Elections to December 13
France 24 — https://www.france24.com/es/video/20260728-aland-cadet-las-personas-en-hait%C3%AD-est%C3%A1n-esperando-un-alivio-a-su-situaci%C3%B3n-socioecon%C3%B3mica
  - According to the Provisional Electoral Council of Haiti, the first round of presidential and legislative elections will be held on December 13, marking the first such elections in a decade.
  - Originally scheduled for August 30 alongside a constitutional referendum, the postponement was attributed to a lack of security guarantees in the country.
  - The second round is set for February 21, 2027, with final results expected by March 12.
  - France 24 spoke with Aland Cadet, a Haitian university professor, political analyst, and social activist based in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, regarding the country's political and social situation, the feasibility of the new electoral calendar, and the primary challenges facing Haiti.

[2026-07-28] Haiti Presidential Election Scheduled for December Amid Security Concerns
東方網 馬來西亞東方日報 — https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/international/2026/07/28/836320
  - According to the Haitian Interim Electoral Commission, the first round of presidential and legislative elections in Haiti will be held on December 13, pending the establishment of an 'acceptable security environment.' This will be the country's first election in 10 years, following the assassination of former President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 and a decade of political instability.
  - The second round is scheduled for February 21, 2027, with final results to be announced by March 7.
  - The Interim Electoral Commission noted that the timeline depends on security conditions and available financial resources.
  - Voter registration begins on July 20, with the candidate registration deadline set for October 2.
  - The Caribbean Community welcomed the announcement, urging international support for the UN-authorized 'anti-gang unit' to deploy personnel before the first round.
  - The country currently faces a severe security crisis, with powerful criminal gangs controlling large areas, including most of the capital, Port-au-Prince.
  - A UN-authorized international force, led by Kenya, has been deployed but has struggled to curb violence.
  - Additionally, the UN's 2026 humanitarian aid plan for Haiti, valued at $880 million, has received less than 25% of its funding.
  - According to UN data, nearly 1.5 million people are displaced, and over 5 million face severe food insecurity in the nation of approximately 11 million people.

[2026-07-27] Haiti to Hold First Presidential Election in 10 Years in December 2026
Poder360 — https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-internacional/haiti-tera-1a-eleicao-presidencial-em-10-anos-em-dezembro/
  - Haiti is scheduled to hold its first presidential election in 10 years on December 13, 2026, according to the country's Electoral Council.
  - The first round of voting will be followed by a second round on February 21, 2027, with final results expected to be announced by March 7, 2027.
  - The decision was announced on Monday, July 27, 2026, and reported by Reuters.
  - The election will also include local representatives and constitutional amendments.
  - The 10-year gap since the last election in 2016 was caused by the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, leading to a series of transitional governments that cited gang violence as a barrier to holding elections.
  - In early July 2026, the council began voter registration, security agent training, and approved over 300 political parties.
  - However, experts warn that ongoing gang violence and economic instability may still jeopardize the safety and freedom of the upcoming vote.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: As of October 14, 2026, the Wikipedia page named in the criteria says Haiti's general elections 'were scheduled to be held in Haiti on 13 December 2026, but were postponed indefinitely on 7 October 2026 due to gang violence disrupting preparations,' and lists the presidential election date as 'TBD'. France 24 (Oct 7, 2026) reports that a member of the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) said 'the December 13 date no longer stands.' The CEP gave no new date, and voter registration is still going on, with about 769,000 voters registered.
  Last updated: unknown (the page cites sources dated up to 25 September 2026 and describes the 7 October 2026 postponement) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: No voting has taken place, and the Dec 13 first round has been postponed indefinitely with no new date. The CEP says a new timetable will be published 'as soon as possible.' A Yes would require the CEP to reschedule the first round to Dec 13 or earlier and actually hold it, which looks very unlikely given that only about 10% of eligible voters are registered and gangs still control large areas. The question is not formally decided because the deadline (before Dec 14, 2026) has not passed. Sources disagree slightly on the announcement date: Rio Times says Tuesday 6 October, while Wikipedia, CFR and Breitbart say 7 October.
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Haitian_general_election (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/americas/haiti-election-gangs.html (HTTP 403)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Next Haitian general election:
  General elections were scheduled to be held in Haiti on 13 December 2026, but were postponed indefinitely on 7 October 2026 due to gang violence disrupting preparations. The presidency, all seats in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, all seats in departmental assemblies, and municipal offices will be contested.

  2015 Haitian presidential election:
  Presidential elections were held in Haiti on 25 October 2015, alongside local elections and the second round of the legislative elections. Incumbent President Michel Martelly was constitutionally barred from running. As no candidate received a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff was to be held on 27 December 2015. On 22 December the Conseil Electoral Provisoire (CEP) announced that the runoff has been postponed indefinitely. However, on 1 January 2016 President Michel Martelly announced that the runoff would be held on 17 January, but on 7 January the President changed the date to 24 January. On 20 January, Jude Célestin issued a statement that calls "whatever the person who will participate in this January 24 [runoff], is a traitor to the Nation". Because of rioting and elec

  History of Haiti:
  The recorded history of Haiti began in 1492, when the European captain and explorer Christopher Columbus landed on a large island in the region of the western Atlantic Ocean that later came to be known as the Caribbean Sea. The western portion of the island of Hispaniola, where Haiti is situated, was inhabited by Indigenous peoples, who called their island Ayiti. The island was promptly claimed for the Spanish Crown, where it was named La Isla Española, later Latinized to Hispaniola. By the early 17th century, the French had built a settlement on the west of Hispaniola and called it Saint-Domingue. Prior to the Seven Years' War (1756–1763), the economy of Saint-Domingue gradually expanded, with sugar and, later, coffee becoming important export crops. After the war which had disrupted mari

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

You are an elite superforecaster. Read ALL the research below — the raw tool outputs, the news bundle and the six research reports — and give one calibrated probability for this Metaculus binary question.

## Question
Will Haiti hold the first round of its presidential election before December 14, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
NY Times (September 3, 2026): [Can a Country Really Hold an Election in the Middle of a Gang War?](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/americas/haiti-election-gangs.html) "Haitian officials have set elections for Dec. 13, but many experts say extreme violence is likely to force a postponement."

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "5267400ed7343a57", "sheet_id": "13"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, before December 14, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) official popular voting begins in Haiti for the [2026 Haitian presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Haitian_general_election) 

## Fine Print
Please note that non-presidential elections such as for the Senate or the Chamber of Deputies do not count.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: As of October 14, 2026, the Wikipedia page named in the criteria says Haiti's general elections 'were scheduled to be held in Haiti on 13 December 2026, but were postponed indefinitely on 7 October 2026 due to gang violence disrupting preparations,' and lists the presidential election date as 'TBD'. France 24 (Oct 7, 2026) reports that a member of the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) said 'the December 13 date no longer stands.' The CEP gave no new date, and voter registration is still going on, with about 769,000 voters registered.
  Last updated: unknown (the page cites sources dated up to 25 September 2026 and describes the 7 October 2026 postponement) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: No voting has taken place, and the Dec 13 first round has been postponed indefinitely with no new date. The CEP says a new timetable will be published 'as soon as possible.' A Yes would require the CEP to reschedule the first round to Dec 13 or earlier and actually hold it, which looks very unlikely given that only about 10% of eligible voters are registered and gangs still control large areas. The question is not formally decided because the deadline (before Dec 14, 2026) has not passed. Sources disagree slightly on the announcement date: Rio Times says Tuesday 6 October, while Wikipedia, CFR and Breitbart say 7 October.
  Fetched: fetch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Haitian_general_election (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/americas/haiti-election-gangs.html (HTTP 403)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Next Haitian general election:
  General elections were scheduled to be held in Haiti on 13 December 2026, but were postponed indefinitely on 7 October 2026 due to gang violence disrupting preparations. The presidency, all seats in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, all seats in departmental assemblies, and municipal offices will be contested.

  2015 Haitian presidential election:
  Presidential elections were held in Haiti on 25 October 2015, alongside local elections and the second round of the legislative elections. Incumbent President Michel Martelly was constitutionally barred from running. As no candidate received a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff was to be held on 27 December 2015. On 22 December the Conseil Electoral Provisoire (CEP) announced that the runoff has been postponed indefinitely. However, on 1 January 2016 President Michel Martelly announced that the runoff would be held on 17 January, but on 7 January the President changed the date to 24 January. On 20 January, Jude Célestin issued a statement that calls "whatever the person who will participate in this January 24 [runoff], is a traitor to the Nation". Because of rioting and elec

  History of Haiti:
  The recorded history of Haiti began in 1492, when the European captain and explorer Christopher Columbus landed on a large island in the region of the western Atlantic Ocean that later came to be known as the Caribbean Sea. The western portion of the island of Hispaniola, where Haiti is situated, was inhabited by Indigenous peoples, who called their island Ayiti. The island was promptly claimed for the Spanish Crown, where it was named La Isla Española, later Latinized to Hispaniola. By the early 17th century, the French had built a settlement on the west of Hispaniola and called it Saint-Domingue. Prior to the Seven Years' War (1756–1763), the economy of Saint-Domingue gradually expanded, with sugar and, later, coffee becoming important export crops. After the war which had disrupted mari

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-14; forecasting closes 2026-10-14; resolves 2026-12-14. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
10 AskNews articles (newest first; 5 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-13] Four Nations Urge Palestine to Reconsider Election Delay
沖縄タイムス＋プラス — https://www.okinawatimes.co.jp/articles/-/1944028
  - On October 13, 2026, the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia issued a joint statement expressing 'deep regret' over the Palestinian Authority's decision to postpone its Council elections.
  - According to the statement, the postponement, which delays the first elections since 2006 (a 20-year gap), risks undermining public trust in democratic institutions as a generation reaches adulthood without the opportunity to elect their representatives.
  - The four foreign ministers argued that strengthening the Palestinian Authority's governance is a necessary foundation for achieving future 'two-state coexistence' with Israel.
  - The postponement was announced by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on October 10, 2026, via a presidential decree shifting the Council elections from November 2026 to September 2027, while simultaneously scheduling presidential elections.

[2026-10-12] Haiti Gang Violence Intensifies Ahead of December 2026 Elections
La Repubblica.it — https://www.repubblica.it/solidarieta/emergenza/2026/10/12/news/haiti_gang_violenza_elezioni_presidenziali-425643500/
  - As Haiti prepares for presidential elections scheduled for December 13, 2026, the country is experiencing intensifying violence driven by approximately 300 armed criminal groups, with 70-75% concentrated in the capital, Port-au-Prince.
  - According to Volker Türk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 5,800 people have been killed or seriously injured since the beginning of 2026 due to gang brutality.
  - These groups, estimated to have between 10,000 and 15,000 members with roughly 50% being minors, control significant territory through violent conflicts.
  - Major coalitions include the G9 Famila, led by former police officer Jimmy 'Barbecue' Chérizier, and its rival G-Pèp, along with the Viv Ansanm alliance.
  - Reports indicate that since January 2026, gangs have kidnapped over 230 people and raped approximately 1,000 women.
  - Investigations by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) reveal that the majority of weapons, including AK-47s and AR-15s, enter Haiti from the United States, specifically Florida, via commercial shipping and air routes, often concealed in legitimate cargo.
  - This flow continues despite an embargo, facilitated by a network involving US front buyers, Haitian political and economic elites who fund gangs for power and profit, and corrupt customs officials.
  - Additionally, diverted National Police munitions and private security contractors contribute to the arms supply.

[2026-10-12] France Calls for Credible Elections in Haiti After Financial Rules Eased
miamiherald.com — https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
  - Following the elimination of strict financial requirements for candidates in Haiti's upcoming elections, France has called for a credible electoral process.
  - The Embassy of France in Haiti, represented by Ambassador Lekens, stated that previous rules requiring proof of no insolvency or five years of tax compliance have been removed, leaving only a requirement to be current on taxes.
  - Lekens, who arrived in Haiti three weeks ago, emphasized that candidates must meet integrity standards to ensure a free and democratic election.
  - This move follows a scathing U.N.
  - Panel of Experts report (covering October 2025 to July 2026) alleging that former parliamentarians and a mayor facilitated gang attacks.
  - While the EU has sanctioned nine individuals, including former President Michel Martelly and former senators Youri Latortue and Rony Célestin, the U.N. sanctions list currently includes only one politician.
  - Despite the U.N.
  - Security Council meeting on Thursday in New York to discuss sanctions renewal, and a scheduled briefing by U.N.
  - Special Representative Carlos Ruiz Massieu on October 22, the Trump administration has remained publicly silent on the decree changes.
  - Haiti has scheduled its general election for December 13, though the date is expected to be postponed after the Provisional Electoral Council extended deadlines.

[2026-10-12] Experts Warn of Fragmentation Risks from Latin America's Second-Round Voting System
almomento.mx — https://almomento.mx/observan-especialistas-de-la-unam-desventajas-en-segunda-vuelta-electoral-en-al/
  - Experts from the UNAM and other institutions warn that the second-round voting system (balotaje) in Latin America tends to fragment political parties and hinder governability.
  - Diego Valadés Ríos, a researcher at the UNAM's Institute of Legal Research, stated that the dispersion of parties in Congress makes coalition-building difficult.
  - The discussion, held on October 12, 2026, in Mexico City, highlighted that while the goal of the second round is to ensure the winner has broad legitimacy and an absolute majority, the system may create 'the illusion of the runoff' because it does not address legislative fragmentation.
  - Fernando Tuesta Soldevilla from the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru noted that the Latin American model imports only parts of the French design, which originally included sequential voting for president and parliament to encourage strategic voting.
  - In contrast, Latin America applies the second round only to the presidency, leaving the parliament fragmented, which is particularly problematic in presidential systems.
  - Cinthya McClintock from George Washington University pointed out that in countries like Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Paraguay, the relative majority system (plurality) has allowed leaders like Daniel Ortega, Hugo Chávez, and Santiago Peña to win without an absolute majority.
  - She also noted that in El Salvador, Nayib Bukele seeks a relative majority to lead with 30-40% of the vote, relying on a divided opposition.
  - Fernando Barrientos del Monte from the University of Guanajuato added that while the second round was intended to ensure presidential legitimacy, it often fragments the party system, as seen in Brazil, where the Congress remains divided.
  - He emphasized that since the 1980s, the candidate with the most votes in the first round has typically won the second round in the region.

[2026-10-12] Caribbean News Roundup: Electoral Shifts, Tourism Investments, and Regional Developments
Caribbean News RoundUp — https://www.buzzsprout.com/1633408/episodes/19944850-457-caribbean-news-round-up-episode-2-october-2026.mp3
  - In the October 12, 2026, episode of 'Pulse of the Caribbean News Roundup', host Keisha Bliden covers major regional developments.
  - In Haiti, transitional authorities revised electoral rules for the third time in four months, extending the candidate registration deadline to October 31st, while the first round of voting is scheduled for December 13th.
  - The Provisional Electoral Council notes that only 769,000 voters have been registered as of October 6th amidst violence that has displaced 1.5 million of the country's 11 million residents.
  - In Grenada, Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell declared a general election for November 5th, a year ahead of the 2027 constitutional deadline, with Emmeline Pierre expected to lead the opposition New National Party.
  - In Antigua and Barbuda, Foreign Minister E.
  - P.
  - Chet Green was elected vice president of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) during its 41st session in Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic.
  - Nevis Island Assembly enacted four bills on October 6th to strengthen financial services oversight, with Premier Mark Brantley emphasizing the need for international standards.
  - Guyana's President Dr. Irfaan Ali urged regional governments and investors to invest in infrastructure, resilience, and technology, warning that the Caribbean must diversify beyond natural beauty to compete with Gulf states, Brazil, and Mexico.
  - Meanwhile, Carnival Corporation plans to shift more fleet to Europe, with a projected 50-50 split between Caribbean and European deployments by 2027-2028 due to oversupply in the Caribbean.

[2026-10-11] Haiti Elections Postponed for Third Time Amidst Violence and Political Uncertainty
Le Monde.fr — https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2026/10/11/apres-le-report-des-elections-en-haiti-sur-fond-de-violence-la-transition-politique-bascule-dans-l-incertitude_6791785_3210.html
  - In Haiti, the presidential and legislative elections, with the first round originally scheduled for December 13, 2026, have been postponed for the third time in one year.
  - According to Le Monde.fr, the period initially set for the electoral campaign has also been delayed.
  - The report notes that the political transition in Haiti is now moving into a state of uncertainty against a backdrop of violence.

[2026-10-09] Haiti Indefinitely Postpones Elections Amidst Gang Violence and Political Instability
Deutsche Welle — https://www.dw.com/pt-br/h%C3%A1-10-anos-sem-elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-haiti-cancela-pleito-e-vive-transi%C3%A7%C3%A3o-sem-fim/a-79620352
  - Haiti, the poorest country in the Americas, has indefinitely postponed its presidential and legislative elections originally scheduled for December 2026, marking the end of a decade without national votes.
  - The country has been governed by a transitional Presidential Council since the resignation of Ariel Henry in 2024, with Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé currently leading the administration.
  - The election delay is attributed to severe gang violence, a lack of security, and insufficient electoral preparation.
  - According to the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP), a new electoral calendar will be released as soon as possible, pending the resolution of 'technical and operational requirements.' Experts emphasize the severity of the crisis: Eduardo Gamarra, a political science professor at Florida International University (FIU), stated that 'Haiti does not have the necessary conditions to hold elections,' noting that the government effectively controls only Pétion-Ville, an upscale area of the capital, Port-au-Prince.
  - Diego da Rin, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), added that the ambitious schedule published in July was 'clearly unfulfillable.' The humanitarian toll is significant; UN data indicates that at least 5,700 people have been killed or injured by gangs or counter-gang operations this year, while nearly 1.5 million people have been displaced.
  - Furthermore, the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force, intended to comprise 5,500 members, currently operates with less than one-third of its authorized strength.
  - Gangs are reported to control the coastal strip, ports, roads, and fuel supplies, collecting illegal tolls.
  - Additionally, the electoral voter registry remains incomplete, having excluded the Ouest Department (where Port-au-Prince is located) due to security concerns.
  - Experts warn that without a concrete security plan, the country risks remaining in a 'transition without end.'.

[2026-07-28] Haiti Postpones Presidential and Legislative Elections to December 13
France 24 — https://www.france24.com/es/video/20260728-aland-cadet-las-personas-en-hait%C3%AD-est%C3%A1n-esperando-un-alivio-a-su-situaci%C3%B3n-socioecon%C3%B3mica
  - According to the Provisional Electoral Council of Haiti, the first round of presidential and legislative elections will be held on December 13, marking the first such elections in a decade.
  - Originally scheduled for August 30 alongside a constitutional referendum, the postponement was attributed to a lack of security guarantees in the country.
  - The second round is set for February 21, 2027, with final results expected by March 12.
  - France 24 spoke with Aland Cadet, a Haitian university professor, political analyst, and social activist based in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, regarding the country's political and social situation, the feasibility of the new electoral calendar, and the primary challenges facing Haiti.

[2026-07-28] Haiti Presidential Election Scheduled for December Amid Security Concerns
東方網 馬來西亞東方日報 — https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/international/2026/07/28/836320
  - According to the Haitian Interim Electoral Commission, the first round of presidential and legislative elections in Haiti will be held on December 13, pending the establishment of an 'acceptable security environment.' This will be the country's first election in 10 years, following the assassination of former President Jovenel Moïse in 2021 and a decade of political instability.
  - The second round is scheduled for February 21, 2027, with final results to be announced by March 7.
  - The Interim Electoral Commission noted that the timeline depends on security conditions and available financial resources.
  - Voter registration begins on July 20, with the candidate registration deadline set for October 2.
  - The Caribbean Community welcomed the announcement, urging international support for the UN-authorized 'anti-gang unit' to deploy personnel before the first round.
  - The country currently faces a severe security crisis, with powerful criminal gangs controlling large areas, including most of the capital, Port-au-Prince.
  - A UN-authorized international force, led by Kenya, has been deployed but has struggled to curb violence.
  - Additionally, the UN's 2026 humanitarian aid plan for Haiti, valued at $880 million, has received less than 25% of its funding.
  - According to UN data, nearly 1.5 million people are displaced, and over 5 million face severe food insecurity in the nation of approximately 11 million people.

[2026-07-27] Haiti to Hold First Presidential Election in 10 Years in December 2026
Poder360 — https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-internacional/haiti-tera-1a-eleicao-presidencial-em-10-anos-em-dezembro/
  - Haiti is scheduled to hold its first presidential election in 10 years on December 13, 2026, according to the country's Electoral Council.
  - The first round of voting will be followed by a second round on February 21, 2027, with final results expected to be announced by March 7, 2027.
  - The decision was announced on Monday, July 27, 2026, and reported by Reuters.
  - The election will also include local representatives and constitutional amendments.
  - The 10-year gap since the last election in 2016 was caused by the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, leading to a series of transitional governments that cited gang violence as a barrier to holding elections.
  - In early July 2026, the council began voter registration, security agent training, and approved over 300 political parties.
  - However, experts warn that ongoing gang violence and economic instability may still jeopardize the safety and freedom of the upcoming vote.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-06] The CEP postponed the official campaign, which was due to start Oct 5. It extended candidate registration from Oct 9 to Oct 31. Its statement dropped any mention of an election date and promised a revised calendar "as soon as possible". Voter registration continues. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-07] An anonymous CEP member told AFP that the Dec 13 date "no longer stands" and that a new timetable is being drafted. AFP and Le Devoir/La 1ère describe the vote as postponed "sine die". The council's written statement did not formally cancel Dec 13. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Wire reports (UPI, Breitbart) say the first round is suspended or postponed indefinitely, with no new date. The original schedule was a first round on Dec 13 and a runoff on Feb 21, 2027. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/10/07/latam-haiti-election-postponement/4031791391542
- [2026-10-11] The Council of Ministers amended the June 2 electoral decree on Oct 5, and it was published Oct 6. This was the third rewrite in four months. Candidate fees were cut, but the presidential fee stays at 2 million gourdes. Thresholds of 30,000 members for parties and 150,000 supporters for independents remain. The Haitian Times says the timetable "remains uncertain". https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/11/haiti-lowers-candidate-registration-fees-upcoming-elections/
- [2026-10-13] Interim PM Fils-Aimé visited the CEP with police (PNH) and army (FAd'H) chiefs, exactly two months before Dec 13. Rezo Nòdwès says the date is "strongly compromised". The CEP's provisional tally that morning was 15 presidential candidacies, 293 for the Senate and 989 for the Chamber. No new date had been announced. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/
- [2026-10-07] Voter registration stood at about 769,000 as of Oct 6, up from 628,755 in the CEP's September tally. That is roughly 10% of the electorate. Registration began July 20 and initially excluded the West Department (Port-au-Prince). https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Several gang-held municipalities have no registration centres. Road closures have blocked delivery of electoral materials. The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force is being deployed only slowly. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-07-27] The CEP's calendar of July 26–27 set the first round for Dec 13, conditional on adequate security and funding. That calendar is the baseline now being revised. https://deultimominuto.net/en/uncategorized/haiti-postpones-the-first-round-of-presidential-and-legislative-elections-to-december-13/
- [2026-10-12] The Miami Herald reports that Dec 13 "is expected to be postponed". It also reports France urging credible elections after the financial eligibility rules were eased. A UN Security Council sanctions discussion is due Thursday (Oct 15). A UN briefing by Carlos Ruiz Massieu is set for Oct 22. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
- [2026-10-12] UN rights chief Türk reports at least 5,800 people killed or injured in 2026. About 1.5 million people are displaced. https://www.repubblica.it/solidarieta/emergenza/2026/10/12/news/haiti_gang_violenza_elezioni_presidenziali-425643500/
- [2026-10-06] The Haïti Policy House tracker (updated Oct 6) says dates after Oct 31 are from the old schedule and unconfirmed until the CEP publishes a revised calendar. https://www.haitipolicyhouse.org/haiti-election-tracker
- Upcoming before Dec 14: the candidate registration deadline on Oct 31, and the CEP's revised calendar (undated). Any candidate-list validation and campaign period must also fit before a vote.

BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 14, the CEP has dropped Dec 13 from its official communications, and a council member says it no longer stands. No replacement date has been published, and candidate registration runs to Oct 31. Voter registration is about 10% of the electorate, and gangs still control much of the capital. This points strongly against a first-round vote before Dec 14.

NOT FOUND: A published revised CEP calendar or new first-round date. An official CEP statement formally cancelling Dec 13. Any CEP primary page (cepha.ht or similar), which I did not fetch directly. Any scheduled voting event before Dec 14.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-07] The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) postponed the campaign period and removed any mention of a vote date. A council member told AFP that "the December 13 date no longer stands", and that a new timetable is being drafted. The written statement did not formally cancel the date. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia now says the elections were "postponed indefinitely on 7 October 2026". It lists the election date as TBD, and says the elections have been repeatedly delayed since 2019. Haiti has held no national election since 2016. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Haitian_general_election
- [2026-10-06] The campaign was originally due to start Oct 5, and the July calendar had it running to Dec 12. Candidate registration was extended to Oct 31. A revised calendar is promised, and the CEP has not said whether it will move the first round into 2027. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-11] The Haitian Times says the electoral calendar "remains unsettled", and that the CEP has not clarified whether the first round will slip into next year. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/11/haiti-lowers-candidate-registration-fees-upcoming-elections
- [2026-10-12] The Miami Herald (via the AskNews summary) says the Dec 13 date is "expected to be postponed". It also reports that the electoral rules were revised for the third time in four months. I could not open the page itself. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
- [2026-10-07] Only 769,000 voters had registered since July 20. Some gang-held municipalities have no registration centres, and road closures have blocked delivery of electoral materials. About 1.5 million of Haiti's 11 million people are displaced. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force has about 1,500 of its planned 5,500 personnel. The UN Security Council extended its mandate by six months. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-07-27] Outside view, the CEP's own calendar was conditional on security and funding: it set Dec 13 for round one and Feb 21, 2027 for round two. https://www.riotimesonline.com/haiti-election-13-december-us-travellers-2026/
- [2026-03-28] Earlier in 2026 the government paused the process after rejecting the CEP's budget. The Aug 30 first-round date was already moved to Dec 13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Haitian_general_election
- [2025-11-17] Base rate: every date set since 2019 has been missed. Elections were set for Oct 2019, Sep 2021 and Nov 7, 2021. Henry then dissolved the CEP in Sep 2021, and 2022–23 targets lapsed. Targets of Nov 2025 and Feb 7, 2026 failed, and the Aug 30, 2026 date was replaced by Dec 13. That is roughly 6 or more consecutive misses and no national vote in about 10 years. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prochaine_%C3%A9lection_pr%C3%A9sidentielle_ha%C3%AFtienne
- [2026-09-03] The NYT headline says officials set Dec 13 but "many experts say" violence is likely to force a postponement. I found no betting-market or poll odds. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/americas/haiti-election-gangs.html
- [2016] Historical precedent: Haiti's 2015–16 cycle was repeatedly rescheduled. The Dec 2015 runoff was postponed, and the rerun was held on Oct 9, 2016 (later moved by Hurricane Matthew). Delays of weeks to months are normal even in better conditions. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Haitian_presidential_election

BOTTOM LINE: The outside view points strongly to NO. Haiti has missed every election date since 2019, and the CEP itself says Dec 13 "no longer stands" while candidate registration runs to Oct 31. A first round before Dec 14 would need a reversal within days of the official postponement.

NOT FOUND: Any betting-market or forecasting-platform odds. A published revised CEP calendar. A formal statement that Dec 13 is cancelled. The full text of the NYT article, because the Haitian Times and Miami Herald pages could not be fetched.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-07-27] The CEP's primary calendar note (fetched via HaitiDocs) shows how much of the schedule lay ahead of a Dec 13 vote.
  - Candidate registration was due to close Oct 2. It is now Oct 31, a slip of 29 days.
  - The campaign was to run Oct 5–Dec 12. It is now postponed with no dates.
  - Rolls were to be published Nov 13 (D-30).
  - Polling-station staff were being recruited until Nov 21.
  - Sensitive materials were to be procured and distributed before the vote.
  - Dec 13 was already conditional on security and funding.
  - The Oct 31 filing close plus an unscheduled candidate-vetting step leaves roughly 6 weeks. The July plan had the campaign alone running about 10 weeks. https://www.haitidocs.org/doc/cep-calendrier-2026-07-publication-officielle

- [2026-10-06] The official CEP/HaitiLibre text (fetched) is the primary statement.
  - It reschedules the campaign and says the "new dates" will be communicated later.
  - It says an updated calendar reflecting the amended decree and the "technical and operational requirements" is being finalised.
  - It does not mention Dec 13, so no source has formally cancelled or reaffirmed that date.
  - The government, via the Council of Ministers, controls the decree. The CEP controls the calendar. https://www.haitilibre.com/article-48599-haiti-flash-nouvelles-modifications-du-decret-electoral-ce-que-l-on-sait.html

- [2026-09-16] Driver 1 is the legal and administrative sequence. The CEP had already extended candidate registration once (to Oct 9) at the "insistent" request of parties. It said then it was discussing changes to the decree. The decree rewrite on Oct 5–6 came after that, so the calendar has been rebuilt twice in 3 weeks. Parties and the transitional government control this process. https://www.juno7.ht/cep-prolonge-inscription-candidats-9-octobre-2026/

- [2026-10-13] Driver 2 is the government's security push. Fils-Aimé went to the CEP with the police and army chiefs, which Rezo Nòdwès read as Dec 13 "fortement compromises". The outlet also notes growing calls from parties for his removal. This is a sign of coordination, not a new date. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/

- [2026-10-09] Driver 3 is the Gang Suppression Force. The FRG/GSF "operational launch" ceremony was Oct 8 at Vertières (Tabarre).
  - UNSC Res. 2829 (Sept 29) extended its authorisation to Mar 31, 2027. About 1,500 personnel were deployed by late September, per Reuters.
  - The 5,500-troop ceiling was a goal for October, and the August plan aimed for 2,000–2,500 by August. That target was clearly missed.
  - The force is the main external control over whether polling is feasible. https://lunionsuite.com/haiti-officially-launches-gang-repression-force-as-government-pushes-to-regain-control-of-gang-held-areas and https://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-48232-haiti-flash-deployment-schedule-for-the-gang-supression-force-gsf.html

- [2026-05-11] Fils-Aimé himself said in May that the August vote had to be postponed because of insecurity. The draft decree submitted Apr 24 was not approved by ministers until the June 2 decree. Government approval has been a repeated bottleneck. https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_parlementaires_ha%C3%AFtiennes_de_2026

- [2026-10-13] Driver 4 is the candidate pool, which is still provisional. The CEP's board shows 15 presidential filings, up from 7 on Sept 21, with the window open to Oct 31. The Oct 6 decree cut fees but kept the party and independent support thresholds. Vetting and challenges have no published timeline. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/

- [2026-10-14] Driver 5 is funding and the external environment. The July calendar made the vote conditional on both security and funding. France's embassy (Oct 12) is pressing on candidate integrity, and the UN Panel of Experts report (Oct 2025–Jul 2026) alleges politician links to gangs. The Oct 15 UNSC discussion and the Oct 22 Ruiz Massieu briefing are the next external checkpoints. Those events are not control points for the date.

- [2026-10-14] Sequence needed for YES:
  - (1) The CEP publishes a revised calendar that keeps a first round on or before Dec 13.
  - (2) Candidate filing closes Oct 31 and vetting finishes within days.
  - (3) A campaign is compressed into November–early December.
  - (4) Rolls are published and materials are delivered, including to gang-adjacent areas.
  - (5) The GSF and police secure the polling places.
  - Step 1 has not happened. A CEP member told AFP on Oct 7 that Dec 13 "no longer stands". Any date earlier than Dec 13 is not plausible.
  - Only a vote starting on Dec 13 or earlier counts, so the Dec 13 date would have to be reinstated.

BOTTOM LINE: Every causal driver — decree, candidate vetting, voter rolls, security force and funding — is behind its July schedule. The CEP's Oct 6 statement dropped Dec 13 and the calendar is being rebuilt. Resolving YES would require the CEP to reverse that and meet a compressed timetable with no published steps.

NOT FOUND: A revised CEP calendar or any new first-round date. A formal CEP statement cancelling or reaffirming Dec 13. The CEP's own Oct 6 statement on cephaiti.ht (I only read the HaitiLibre reproduction). The full text of the Oct 6 amended decree. A funding figure or gap for the election. Any current official voter-registration number later than Oct 6.

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-07] The CEP (Haiti's electoral council) postponed the campaign period and published no new vote date. 
A CEP member told AFP "the December 13 date no longer stands" and that a new timetable is being drafted.
 
Only 769,000 voters had registered as of Oct 6.
 I confirmed this on the fetched France 24 page. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations
- [2026-10-07] Breitbart, citing AFP, reports that a CEP member said 3–4 million registered voters would be needed for a reasonably comprehensive vote. The CEP also moved the candidate filing deadline from Oct 9 to Oct 31. https://www.breitbart.com/latin-america/2026/10/07/haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-amid-political-instability-and-gang-violence/
- [2026-10-12] The Miami Herald (fetched) reports the transitional authorities loosened candidate eligibility rules. Its AskNews summary says the Dec 13 date "is expected to be postponed". The article text I could read did not state that line directly. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article317594088.html
- [2026-10-13] Caribbean Life says few observers were surprised by the postponement. It notes only about 800,000 people, roughly 10% of eligible voters, had registered. https://www.caribbeanlife.com/haiti-postpones-first-elections-decade/
- [2026-10-07] Caribbean Life (Oct 7) says the Dec 13 vote is postponed. It adds that the Feb 2027 runoff is also in doubt. https://www.caribbeanlife.com/haiti-postpones-buildup-to-troubled-december-elections/
- [2026-09-03] The NYT, in the question's own description, says experts expect extreme violence to force a postponement. That was before the CEP's Oct 6 move. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/world/americas/haiti-election-gangs.html
- [2026-09-09] Metaculus, a sister question ("before Sept 1, 2026"), resolved No. It had 19 forecasters and its last community figure shown was 30%. That question was overtaken by the Dec 13 date, so it tells us little about this one. I found no live Metaculus page for the Dec 14 question. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/43496/will-haiti-hold-the-1st-round-of-its-presidential-election-before-sept-1-2026/
- [2026-10-14] Polymarket lists a market titled "Haiti elections delayed again?" with about $14.5K volume. Its price did not appear in the page text, and it is thin. https://polymarket.com/predictions/haiti
- [2026-07-23] Track record: Haiti's first-round date has slipped repeatedly. The CEP set Aug 30, 2026 in Nov–Dec 2025, then Dec 13 in July 2026. The CEP president tied the calendar to an acceptable security climate and to timely funding. https://canada-haiti.ca/content/haiti-elections-cep-proposes-december-13-2026-first-round-and-february-21-2027-runoff
- [2026-09-23] Before the postponement, the CEP still said it was working toward Dec 13. It reported 7 presidential candidates registered and 628,755 voters on the roll as of Sept 21. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/09/23/haiti-elections-candidate-voter-registration-updates/
- [2026-10-14] IFES Election Guide still lists Dec 13, 2026 as "Confirmed". Wikipedia also still shows Dec 13. Both are stale relative to the CEP's Oct 6 statement. https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/4663/
- [2026-10-12] Security backdrop: the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force has about 1,500 of a planned 5,500 personnel. About 1.5 million people are displaced. Gang-controlled municipalities lack registration centres. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261007-haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-as-gang-violence-hampers-preparations

BOTTOM LINE: The CEP itself says Dec 13 "no longer stands", the registration shortfall is large, and the press consensus is that the vote is delayed. I found no source forecasting a presidential first round before Dec 14. Any new date would have to be earlier than Dec 14, which is very unlikely given the Oct 31 candidate filing deadline.

NOT FOUND: Polymarket's current price (the page showed volume only). Kalshi and Manifold Haiti markets. A live Metaculus question for the Dec 14 deadline. Any new CEP calendar. Named expert quotes from the NYT piece, because I could not fetch it.

### YES CASE
YES means: official popular voting begins in Haiti's 2026 presidential first round on or before Dec 13, 2026, which is before Dec 14, 2026.

- [2026-10-06] The only formal CEP act on Oct 5–6 postponed the campaign and extended candidate registration. The CEP's note did not cancel Dec 13. It said new campaign dates would follow once the calendar was updated, and that the calendar would integrate the decree changes and the "technical and operational constraints" of the polls. The Haitian Times subheadline said the CEP was "maintaining the Dec. 13 first-round vote for now". The Haitian Times blocked my fetch, so that framing comes from its search snippet. The Rezo Nòdwès text confirms the campaign postponement. This is the thinnest YES hook: Dec 13 is not legally repealed, and the "no longer stands" line comes from an anonymous council member. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-le-cep-prolonge-linscription-des-candidats-et-reporte-la-campagne-electorale/
- [2026-10-13] A Latin Post piece dated the same day still described Dec 13 as "locked in" and the campaign as running Oct 5 to Dec 12. This reflects the stale official calendar, not a new decision, so it is weak evidence. It also reported that only 21 of 105 parties had cleared the 30,000-member bar as of Sept 3, and that registration was about 12%. https://www.latinpost.com/articles/167616/20261013/haitis-new-election-law-could-wipe-out-most-its-316-political-parties-before-anyone-casts-vote.htm
- [2026-08-17] The PM said the elections will take place this year "no matter what". The pledge is to 2026, not to Dec 13 specifically, so a slip into late December would still satisfy it. Dec 14–31 would still resolve NO. Fetched. https://www.caribbeannationalweekly.com/posts/haiti-prime-minister-vows-elections-will-take-place-this-year
- [2026-08-17] Operational steps ran in parallel on the Dec 13 calendar: 17 of 18 political groups approved, and 36 new registration centres added in the West Department alongside 29 existing ones. A CEP delegation was to tour diaspora countries. The calendar also had preliminary results on Dec 19. The machinery was built for Dec 13 and has not been formally dismantled. Fetched. https://www.caribbeannationalweekly.com/posts/haiti-prime-minister-vows-elections-will-take-place-this-year
- [2026-10-08] Security hook: the GSF's operational launch ceremony was held on Oct 8 at Vertières, led by the PM. It is authorised to grow to about 5,500 personnel, and about 1,500 were deployed in late September. UNSC Resolution 2829 extended the mandate to Mar 31, 2027. This is a positive signal for security, but the force is far below strength. https://lunionsuite.com/haiti-officially-launches-gang-repression-force-as-government-pushes-to-regain-control-of-gang-held-areas
- [2026-09-29] CFR notes the GSF began operations in June 2026. It says gangs still hold three of ten provinces, which implies that seven are not gang-held. A partial-territory vote is conceivable in principle. The CFR page also logs the Oct 7 indefinite postponement, so it is not supportive of YES. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-haiti
- [2026-07-27] UN Security Council members (Latvia and others) pressed for "a clear and realistic electoral calendar". The UN line that security challenges must not become a reason to delay the political process is the international pressure that could push officials to hold a thin vote. No funder has been reported demanding Dec 13 specifically. https://press.un.org/en/2026/sc16417.doc.htm
- [2026-07-27] The calendar itself was conditional on "an acceptable security climate" and funds. The Dec 13 date is therefore contingent by design, not a firm commitment. https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260727-haiti-sets-december-presidential-election-despite-security-concerns
- [2026-10-13] Single most likely path to YES: the CEP publishes its revised calendar and keeps Dec 13, or moves the first round to a nearby date before Dec 14. It would have to do so while:
  - candidate filing closes Oct 31;
  - candidate lists are validated and ballots printed within about 6 weeks;
  - the PM's government, with police and army chiefs, backs a symbolic or partial vote.
  Fils-Aimé's Oct 13 visit to the CEP with security chiefs is consistent with this path. I found no source reporting that the CEP reaffirmed Dec 13. That is an inference, not a confirmed fact. https://rezonodwes.com/2026/10/haiti-fils-aime-debarque-au-cep-avec-une-imposante-delegation-le-13-decembre-seloigne-les-promesses-electorales-continuent/
- [2026-10-14] Counter-evidence: IFES still lists Dec 13 as "Confirmed", but the page was not updated after the Oct 6 CEP statement. https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/4663/

BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on the fact that Dec 13 was never formally repealed and on the PM's "no matter what" pledge. The path requires the CEP to reverse its Oct 6 signals and finish candidate validation, ballots and logistics in under 6 weeks after the Oct 31 filing close. I found no source showing that reversal.

NOT FOUND: A CEP statement reaffirming Dec 13. A published revised calendar. A fetchable Haitian Times, NYT or Miami Herald full text. Any official source naming an earlier or alternative pre-Dec 14 date. Current Polymarket odds.

### NO CASE
YES means: Official popular voting begins in Haiti for the presidential first round on or before Dec 13, 2026 (i.e., before Dec 14, 2026).

- [2026-07-27] The CEP's own calendar table (fetched) shows the arithmetic. Electoral rolls were due to be published Nov 13 (D-30). Polling-station staff recruitment ran to Nov 21. Sensitive and non-sensitive materials were to be distributed before the vote. A 5 Oct–12 Dec campaign was built in. Candidate registration was due to close Oct 2, which is 72 days before Dec 13. Candidate filing now runs to Oct 31, which leaves 43 days. The CEP has not said whether the validation, challenge and ballot-printing steps fit into that window. https://www.haitidocs.org/doc/cep-calendrier-2026-07-publication-officielle
- [2026-07-27] The calendar's own conditions on security and funding were never certified as met. The calendar and the CEP note (ref. CEP/DC/028-2526) say the dates depend on them. The Oct 6 statement then dropped all mention of a vote date. This is a formal exit from the schedule, not only a rumour. https://www.haitidocs.org/doc/cep-calendrier-2026-07-publication-officielle
- [2026-10-06] Fetched Haitian Times page: the CEP "has not officially replaced" Dec 13. It says the previously published timetable "is no longer being followed in full". The campaign, which has to precede any vote, has no dates. A revised calendar is the "next major marker". That calendar must come first. Any new date would very likely fall after Dec 13, since a 43-day gap between candidate filing and the vote is already very tight. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-06] The same page says candidate filing was already extended once, to Oct 9 in September, and then to Oct 31. Each slip cuts into the downstream steps. Political actors are still contesting the process: one coalition leader attacked the Oct 5 government neutrality resolution. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/10/06/haiti-delays-election-campaign-extends-candidate-registration-to-oct-31/
- [2026-10-07] CFR's conflict tracker lists the event as "Haiti Indefinitely Postpones Elections". It says gangs control about 90% of Port-au-Prince and three of ten provinces. The Gang Suppression Force only began operating in June 2026. Its mandate runs to Mar 31, 2027. The security precondition therefore cannot plausibly be met by mid-December. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-haiti
- [2026-10-06] AFP, via the Jamaica Observer, says the vote was "indefinitely postponed". The GSF has about 1,500 of 5,500 planned personnel. The UN Security Council's late-September resolution stresses security "conducive" to elections, which suggests the conditions had not yet been met. https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2026/10/06/crisis-stricken-haiti-postpones-elections/
- [2026-10-13] Resolution technicality: a Yes needs actual voting to begin before Dec 14. Announcements, candidate lists or a campaign do not count. Stale sources do not change this. Latin Post (Oct 13) still says Dec 13 is "locked in" and the campaign "underway as of October 5". That contradicts the CEP's Oct 6 postponement, so it is wrong. Stale pages such as IFES, Wikipedia and Latin Post should not be read as evidence for a Dec 13 vote. https://www.latinpost.com/articles/167616/20261013/haitis-new-election-law-could-wipe-out-most-its-316-political-parties-before-anyone-casts-vote.htm
- [2026-10-13] Latin Post's own figures: only 21 of 105 approved political organizations had cleared the 30,000-endorser threshold as of Sept 3, and verification was due Oct 14. Registration was about 12% of voters. Parties are being filtered out before candidate lists even exist. https://www.latinpost.com/articles/167616/20261013/haitis-new-election-law-could-wipe-out-most-its-316-political-parties-before-anyone-casts-vote.htm
- [2026-10-07] Voter registration runs on. The CEP said it is continuing, which is incompatible with a roll that is final by Nov 13. A vote on Dec 13 would need 3–4 million registrants (per the colleague report) and cannot be reached from roughly 0.77–0.8 million. Registration was only opened in the West Department after July 20. https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/haiti-postpones-elections-indefinitely-amid-gang-violence
- [2026-07-27] The pattern of misses is in the official record. The calendar of Nov 2025 and its Dec 23 revision fixed Aug 30. The government paused the process in March and then moved the date to Dec 13. Each previous deadline was dropped within weeks of the CEP reaffirming it. The Haitian Times of Jan 6, 2026 said authorities "repeatedly failed" to meet deadlines. https://haitiantimes.com/2026/01/06/haiti-cep-maintains-elections-august-30-2026/
- [2026-10-12] Status-quo inertia favours NO. The interim government's stated aim is an elected president installed by Feb 7, 2027. That aim is a political reason to hold the vote, but it can be met by a vote in Jan–Feb with a round-two timeline compressed. Nothing found shows any actor pushing for a vote earlier than Dec 14. No scheduled event before Dec 14 would let voting begin earlier.

BOTTOM LINE: A Yes would need the CEP to reverse its Oct 6 postponement and run an unusually compressed schedule. The roll, the candidate list, the campaign and security would all have to be finished in under 9 weeks, while candidate filing stays open to Oct 31. Every prior Haitian date since 2019 has been missed, so status quo and deadline arithmetic both point to NO.

NOT FOUND: A published revised CEP calendar or new first-round date. A formal CEP statement cancelling Dec 13. The NYT article text. Any official source or credible forecaster expecting a vote before Dec 14. Current Polymarket pricing.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources above show the resolving condition ALREADY met (or already impossible) as of today? If so, say which source and price it at the cap. Otherwise, name what would still have to happen and by when (the RESOLUTION date).
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market, treat its price as a strong, well-calibrated prior and name the specific evidence the market lacks whenever you land more than ~15 percentage points from it. A RELATED market (different deadline, threshold or resolution) is context only — do not anchor on it. If no market is listed, there is none on this question; do not assume one.
- **Anchor on the resolution source.** If the evidence includes a RESOLUTION SOURCE block, the question resolves on what THAT page shows, not on what the world does. If it says the resolving condition is already met, the correct probability is at the cap (0.97-0.98); if definitively unmet with no path left, 0.02-0.03. Otherwise its current state is your status quo, and the gap between the source and reality (lagging updates, different metric, classification rules) is a first-class risk to price explicitly, not a footnote at 5%.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, list it in unverified_claims (it will be checked) and keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (0) (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>",
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move p_yes by 10+ points if false; [] if none>"]
}