Which month will have the highest officially reported TSMC consolidated net revenue among September, October, and November 2026?

- [2026-10-14] The official TSMC monthly-revenue page (investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026) returned HTTP 403 when I tried to open it. I used TSMC's own press releases and its SEC 6-K filings of the same figures instead. Neither Oct nor Nov 2026 revenue exists yet. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
- [2026-10-08] TSMC's release gives September 2026 consolidated revenue of NT$511,857M. That is down 0.6% from August and up 54.6% from September 2025 (NT$330,980M). Jan–Sep revenue was NT$3,898.73B, up 41.1%. https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343 ; 6-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm
- [2026-09-10] August 2026 revenue was NT$514,806M, up 10.1% from July (NT$467,580M) and up 53.3% year on year. This is the highest month on record. September (NT$511,857M) is about NT$2.95B, or 0.6%, below August. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000658/tsm-revenue20260910.htm
- [2026-08-10 / 2026-07-13] The monthly path before that was June NT$442,680M, July NT$467,580M, then August NT$514,806M. Press reports described August as the fourth straight monthly increase. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000471/tsm-revenue20260810.htm ; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/tsmc-august-revenue-chip-ai.html
- [2026-10-08] Q3 revenue totalled NT$1,494.24B, up about 51% year on year. Converted at TSMC's assumed rate of 32, that is about US$46.7B. The July guidance was US$44.6–45.8B, so the quarter came in about 2% above the top of the range. https://www.yxinsights.com/p/tsmc-tsm-stock-q3-2026-revenue-guidance ; guidance table: https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3
- [2026-10-08] CNBC corrected its story to say September did not set a monthly record. That fits the figures, since August is higher. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/tsmc-september-sales-hit-another-record-as-ai-boom-rolls-on.html
- [2026-10-15, scheduled] The Q3 earnings conference is at 14:00 Taiwan time. It will include Q4 2026 revenue guidance, the main available indicator for October–November. TSMC's quiet period runs Oct 5–14, so no Q4 guidance was public as of today. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3
- [2026-10-13] Taiwan's index fell more than 1,200 points intraday. UDN attributed this to weak US stocks and reports of Apple cutting orders. Asian equities saw outflows for a second week. This is sentiment, not TSMC revenue data. https://udn.com/news/story/7251/9811402
- [2026-10-12] A Taiwanese market article says the earnings call will focus on Q4 and next-year outlook, advanced packaging, capex and overseas fabs. Another preview (2026-10-13) says capex guidance for 2026 had already been raised to US$60–64B, but I did not confirm that on a primary page. https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/183025/post/202610120019/ ; https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/pratinjau-laba-tsmc-q3-2026-pertumbuhan-didorong-oleh-permintaan-ai
- [Schedule] Based on TSMC's usual pattern (July figures on Aug 10, August on Sep 10, September on Oct 8), the October figure should come around Nov 10 and the November figure around Dec 10. Both fall before the Dec 11 resolution. This timing is inferred from past releases, not confirmed.
- [2026-10-14] Reference levels for the three months: September is NT$511.86B. The earlier months to beat or fall short of are August at NT$514.81B and July at NT$467.58B.

BOTTOM LINE: September is already fixed at NT$511.86B, slightly below the August record. October or November needs to exceed that, and any Q4 guidance on Oct 15 will be the first real signal for them. The resolution page itself could not be opened, but the primary releases match.

NOT FOUND: TSMC's Q4 2026 revenue guidance and exchange-rate assumption (not released until Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 revenue figure. The rendered content of the official monthly-revenue page (403). Any primary-source confirmation of the US$60–64B capex outlook.

- [2026-10-08] September 2026 revenue is already reported at NT$511.857B (−0.6% MoM, +54.6% YoY). August, at NT$514.806B, remains the record month. Q3 total was NT$1,494.2B (+17.6% QoQ), above the top of guidance. Months to date in 2026: May 416.98, Jun 442.68, Jul 467.58, Aug 514.81, Sep 511.86 (NT$B). Sept is therefore the known benchmark that October and November must beat. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2026-10-14] The TSMC IR 2026 monthly revenue page (the resolution source) showed only a "Total" row of NT$3,898,727M (+41.1%) in its search snippet. The rendered page did not show the monthly rows. The page was last updated about 5 days earlier, so October is not yet reported. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
- [2026-10-14] Analyst consensus ahead of the Oct 15 earnings call is for Q4 USD revenue to rise about high-single digits to 10% QoQ (World Journal). China Times says up to 10–15%. Q3 guidance was US$44.6–45.8B at 32 NT$/US$. Q3 NT$ revenue came in above that range. These are expectations, not guidance; official Q4 guidance is not out yet. https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121347/9809069 ; https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20261014000517-260121
- [2026-10-08] Taiwan analysts expect October to rebound. They cite Apple new-device shipments and the consumer-electronics peak season. They attribute September's small dip to customer shipment timing, not weaker demand. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2025-11-10] Base rate, last year: October 2025 was NT$367.47B (+11.0% MoM, a then-record). November 2025 was NT$343.61B (−6.5% MoM). So October beat both September and November. https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3267 ; https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3275
- [2024-11-08] October 2024 was NT$314.24B, +24.8% over September 2024 (NT$251.87B). October was again the top of the Sep–Nov set. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617924000122/tsm-revenue20241108.htm
- [2023-11-10] October 2023 was NT$243.2B, +34.8% MoM and a record. Analysts then expected Nov and Dec to fall below October. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202311100124.aspx
- [2021-11-11] Counter-example: in 2021, October (NT$134.5B) was down 11.9% from September (NT$152.7B, a record) because of component shortages. September was the highest of the three months that year. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20211111000933-261507
- [2020-11-10] Counter-example: in 2020, October was NT$119.3B, −6.5% from a September inflated by rush shipments to Huawei. September was the highest of the three. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4540876
- [2016-11-10] In 2016, October (NT$91.1B) was +1.5% over September. It stayed below the August record. Analysts expected Nov/Dec to soften. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20161110003891-260511
- Base-rate tally from the cases I found: October was the top of Sep/Oct/Nov in 2016, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and September was the top in 2020 and 2021. I found no case where November was the top. I did not audit every year, and I did not collect November 2021, 2022 or 2023 data.
- [2026-10-14] Market context: Taiwan stocks fell more than 1,200 points intraday on Oct 13. Reports cited weak US stocks and Apple reducing orders. A fund manager still expects a positive October–November. https://udn.com/news/story/7251/9811402

BOTTOM LINE: Historically the winner is usually October, with September the winner when it is inflated by pull-ins or October is hit by supply problems; November has not won in the cases I found, because it is seasonally softer. For 2026 the key threshold is September's NT$511.86B (August's NT$514.81B is the record), and expected Q4 growth of about 10% QoQ points to October (or possibly November) topping September. The Oct 15 Q4 guidance and the exchange-rate assumption are the main swing factors.

NOT FOUND: Official Q4 2026 guidance (released Oct 15, after the question opened). October and November 2026 actuals. Any betting-market odds or formal polls on this question. Rendered monthly rows from the TSMC IR page. Any analyst per-month forecast for October or November 2026.

- [2026-10-12] Apple's reported iPhone 18 Pro cuts are the main downside risk to October. Morgan Stanley's Oct 8 note (fetched) says Apple's October component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were cut by at least 15%. The same note says it had not seen order or capacity cuts at TSMC or Hon Hai as of Oct 11. It keeps its Dec-quarter iPhone build at 76M units. The Nikkei report (Oct 9) puts the cut at 15–20%. Apple has not confirmed it. This offsets the Taiwan analysts' "Apple shipments lift October" argument (Oct 8). https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34502
- [2026-10-12] TSMC's long order visibility means iPhone-related wafer revenue is probably already locked for Q4. Morgan Stanley says Apple was trying to pull some 2nm wafer orders forward into Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. Pull-ins would help October or November, not hurt them. The risk is mainly to 2027. The same fetched page says that if the trend continues, "production faces increasing downward risk in Q3 2027 and beyond". https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34502
- [2026-10-14] The market sentiment shock of Oct 13 partly reversed. CTEE headlines for Oct 14 say TSMC's share price rose NT$45 and the Taiwan index rebounded nearly 600 points. This is price action, not revenue. It suggests investors are not treating the Apple cut as a TSMC revenue event. https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20251110701155-430503
- [2025-11-10] The Oct 15 guidance is the best predictor of the shape of Q4, and last year shows how to read it. After the Q3 2025 call, TSMC guided Q4 at US$32.2–33.4B at NT$30.6. October 2025 (NT$367.47B) was already 36.6% of the NT$-equivalent Q4 guidance (fetched). That meant Nov and Dec averaged below October. The same arithmetic applies in 2026. Divide the Q4 NT$ guidance midpoint by 3, then compare with September's NT$511.9B. If October exceeds one-third of the guide, November and December are probably lower, so October wins. https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20251110701155-430503
- [2024-11-08] When Q4 guidance implies a slowdown after October, October has won. Q4 2024 guidance was US$26.1–26.9B at NT$32, equal to NT$835–861B. October 2024 (NT$314.2B) alone was about 37% of that, so cnyes concluded Nov and Dec would fall back (fetched via search). November has not been the Sep–Nov peak in any 2016–2025 case my colleagues or I found. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5770275
- [2021-11-11] Counter-pattern: a weak October can precede a stronger Nov and Dec. In 2021 October fell 11.9% on shortages. Q4 guidance of NT$431.2–439.6B then implied Nov and Dec above October. Analysts said both months would beat October, but September still topped the three-month set. A 2026 repeat needs a supply or shipment-timing dip in October, plus a Q4 guide high enough that November rises above NT$511.9B. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4767056
- [2026-10-15, upcoming] The exchange-rate assumption in the Q4 guide matters for the NT$ ranking. Q3 guidance used NT$32 per US$ (July). A different Q4 rate shifts every month's NT$ revenue. The resolution page reports NT$, so monthly translation, not USD demand, decides the ranking. Q4 guidance will not itself fix the monthly split. TSMC does not publish monthly guidance. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000451/a2q26e_withguidancexfinal.htm
- [2026-10-12] Capacity supply rises through Q4. TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is estimated at 120–140k wafers in 2026 (TrendForce, June). The estimated demand-supply gap is narrowing from about 20% to about 10% by end-2026. Ramping capacity is a steady driver that favours later months, which supports November over September. Seasonal Apple and consumer shipments favour October. These two drivers pull in different directions. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/06/15/news-tsmc-cowos-supply-demand-gap-reportedly-seen-narrowing-from-20-to-10-by-end-2026-as-capacity-expands/
- [2026-10-08] September fell 0.6% from August, and analysts blamed customer shipment timing (Storm Media). If shipments slipped from September into October, October has a catch-up boost. This is an analyst explanation, not a TSMC statement. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2026-10-14] Analysts' Q4 expectation versus the hurdle. Morgan Stanley and BofA expect Q4 up 10–15% q/q (Admirals, TipRanks, per colleagues). My arithmetic: Q3 was NT$1,494B, so a 10% rise gives about NT$1,643B, or about NT$548B a month. That is about 7% above September. Even a flat Q4 would average only about NT$498B, below September. A Q4 guide that is merely flat to low-single-digit growth would put September back in contention. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview
- [Timing] The monthly rows for October and November are published around Nov 10 and Dec 10, before the Dec 11 resolution. I did not find a TSMC statement confirming the dates. The sequence for the outcome: (1) Q4 guidance on Oct 15 sets the quarterly NT$ total. (2) October is reported around Nov 10 and shows whether it beats NT$511.9B. (3) November is reported around Dec 10 and shows whether it beats both. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3

BOTTOM LINE: The result depends on the Oct 15 Q4 NT$ guide and on whether October holds up despite the Apple order-cut reports. The usual pattern is that October is the Q4 peak when the guide implies a taper afterwards. September wins only if the guide is flat or October slips. November wins only if October is weak, the guide is strong, and capacity ramps.

NOT FOUND: Q4 2026 guidance and the exchange-rate assumption (not released before Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 revenue figure. A per-month analyst estimate for October versus November. The rendered TSMC monthly-revenue page (blocked).

- [2026-10-08] Confirmed, from TSMC's monthly reports as tabulated by Business Insider Taiwan and Storm Media. 2026 monthly revenue was Jul NT$467.58B, Aug NT$514.81B (record), Sep NT$511.86B (-0.6% m/m, +54.6% y/y). Q3 totalled NT$1,494.2B. September is already reported, so it is the baseline to beat. https://www.businessinsider.tw/article/8047
- [2026-10-12] Admirals Markets cites the same monthly series. It also says analysts had expected September at only NT$444.8–483.2B, so the actual figure was about 5.9% above the top of that range. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview
- [2026-10-08] Taiwan analysts cited by Yahoo/Storm attribute the September dip to customer shipment timing. They expect October to strengthen as Apple orders ship and the consumer-electronics peak season starts. They say the open question is whether Q4 holds above NT$500B a month. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%8F%B0%E7%A9%8D%E9%9B%BB9%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B65118%E5%84%84%E5%85%83%E5%AE%88%E4%BD%8F5000%E5%84%84%E5%A4%A7%E9%97%9C-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E5%AD%A3%E8%A1%9D1-49%E5%85%86%E5%85%83%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A%E8%B2%A1%E6%B8%AC%E9%AB%98%E6%A8%99-10%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B6%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E5%86%8D%E8%BD%89%E5%BC%B7-075925103.html
- [2026-10-06 to 2026-10-12] Morgan Stanley expects Q4 2026 revenue up 10–15% q/q. Admirals calculates that as about US$51.4–53.7B, against Q3 at about US$46.7B. BofA (Haas Liu, ranked most accurate on TSM over three months by TipRanks) also expects Q4 up 10–15% q/q. A Q4 about 10–15% above Q3 implies a quarterly total of roughly NT$1.64–1.72T, or about NT$550–570B a month on average, which is above September's NT$512B. This is my arithmetic, not a stated forecast. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview and https://www.tipranks.com/news/tsmc-q3-earnings-on-october-15-analysts-see-95-upside-in-tsm-stock
- [2026-07-16] Company Q3 guidance was US$44.6–45.8B at NT$32 per US$. Actual Q3 beat the top of that range by about 2%. Full-year 2026 growth guidance was "slightly above 40%" in USD terms. The Q4 guide has not been issued yet. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000451/a2q26e_withguidancexfinal.htm
- [2026-10-15, upcoming] TSMC's Q3 earnings call is at 14:00 Taipei time on 15 October, after the question opens. It will give Q4 USD guidance and an exchange-rate assumption, which sets a floor and ceiling for the quarterly NT$ total. Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan also expects full-year growth to be raised to the low-to-mid 40% range. https://investinglive.com/stocks/preview-tsmc-tipped-for-sixth-straight-record-quarter-with-profit-seen-up-65-on-ai-demand/
- [Historical seasonality, TSMC data via Taiwan media] October 2025 was NT$367.5B, +11.0% m/m over September. October 2024 was NT$314.2B, +24.8% m/m. October 2021 was -11.9% m/m, which Taiwan analysts blamed on shortages and delayed deliveries. October therefore often rises, but a dip is possible. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449 and https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4767056
- [Historical, 2025] After the Q3 2025 call, analysts calculated that Nov+Dec 2025 averaged below October, because guidance implied Q4 down 1% q/q at the midpoint. Monthly shape inside a quarter is guided by the quarterly guide, so the October guide matters for the Oct-versus-Nov ranking. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449
- [2026-10-12/13] Sentiment risk: the OpenAI revenue report on 8 October led to a 3.4% chip-sector fall and a TSM ADR drop. Taiwan's index fell more than 1,200 points intraday on 13 October on reports of Apple order cuts (UDN, per the already-retrieved summary). TSMC's options-implied move for the earnings reaction is about ±4.3%. These are equity-market signals, not monthly-revenue forecasts. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview
- [2026-10-14] Consensus for Q3: revenue US$45.54B, EPS US$4.43 (TipRanks). Q3 revenue is already known and beat the consensus. https://www.tipranks.com/news/tsmc-q3-earnings-on-october-15-analysts-see-95-upside-in-tsm-stock
- [2026-10-14] Prediction markets: I found no Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus market on TSMC monthly revenue. The search returned only general volume and fee articles. https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/prediction-markets/polymarket-and-kalshi-volume-monthly
- [2026-10-14] I could not open TSMC's official monthly-revenue page (HTTP 403). The monthly figures above come from TSMC's reports as relayed by secondary sources, and TSMC's own press release for September is cited by Admirals as https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

BOTTOM LINE: No source I found gives a month-by-month forecast for October–November. Analyst Q4 expectations (+10–15% q/q from Morgan Stanley and BofA) and Taiwan commentary on Apple shipments both imply Q4 monthly revenue above September's NT$511.9B, so September looks unlikely to be the highest of the three. Whether October or November is higher is undetermined, and TSMC's Q4 guidance on 15 October is the key near-term data point.

NOT FOUND: any prediction-market or Metaculus question on this; any analyst's explicit October versus November monthly estimate; TSMC's official page, which blocked access; Q4 2026 guidance, which was not yet published.

**Leader on this dimension: October 2026.** September is fixed at NT$511.86B, so October or November has to beat it. October is the likelier of the two, from seasonal shape and from where Q4 consensus sits. This is an inference from precedent and arithmetic. No source gives an October or November 2026 figure.

- [2026-10-14] The TSMC monthly-revenue page still shows only the cumulative total (NT$3,898,727M, +41.1%) in its search snippet. No October row exists yet. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
- [2026-10-08] Storm Media (fetched) lists the 2026 monthly run as May 416.98, Jun 442.68, Jul 467.58, Aug 514.81 and Sep 511.86 (NT$B). It says the string of four straight record months ended in September. Analysts attribute the 0.6% dip to customer shipment timing, not demand. They expect Apple-related shipments and the consumer-electronics peak season to lift October, and they frame the open question as whether Q4 holds above NT$500B a month. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2026-10-14] **Seasonal shape.** Through Q3 2026 the quarterly guidance has been beaten every time, and TSMC's own prior-quarter guides have come with Oct-heavy months. In 2024, October was NT$314.24B, about 36% of Q4 (NT$868.46B). November then fell 12.2% to NT$276.06B, and December was NT$278.16B. October 2024 was the top of the Sep–Nov set. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20241210PD219/tsmc-revenue-market-2024-demand.html ; https://www.macdailynews.com/2025/01/10/major-apple-supplier-tsmcs-revenue-handily-beats-estimates/
- [2025-11-10] October 2025 was NT$367.47B, about 35.1% of Q4 2025 (NT$1,046.09B). Q4 2025 guidance had implied a roughly 1% q/q decline at the midpoint. Taiwan's CNA and Economic Daily News therefore projected Nov–Dec at an average of only NT$309–327B, below October. November 2025 did come in at NT$343.6B, below October. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449 ; https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20251110701155-430503
- [2026-10-14] **Arithmetic: why September likely loses.** Two Oct share assumptions are used below. The first is Oct at about 35% of Q4 (the 2024 and 2025 pattern). The second is Nov at about 32% of Q4 (2024 and 2025 were 31.8% and 32.8%).
  - If Q4 NT$ revenue were merely flat on Q3 (NT$1,494B), October at 35% would be about NT$523B, already above September.
  - At the +10% q/q consensus (about NT$1.64T at roughly NT$32 per US$), October at 35% would be about NT$575B.
  - November at 32% of NT$1.64T would be about NT$525B. That is above September, but below the October estimate on the same shares.
  - For November to beat October, Nov would need a share above Oct's. That has not happened in the years I checked.
  - These are my calculations, not published forecasts. They also depend on the NT$/US$ rate: the Oct 14 UDN market ticker showed about NT$32.1, near the Q3 assumption of 32. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449
- [2026-10-12] **Q4 weighting is the key swing.** The shape of Q4 within the quarter is signalled by the Oct 15 guidance, which was not yet public. TSMC's Q4 2024 guide of US$26.1–26.9B (+11–14% q/q) preceded a front-loaded October. The Q4 2026 consensus (+10–15% q/q, already cited by colleagues) is similar in magnitude. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20241210PD219/tsmc-revenue-market-2024-demand.html
- [2026-10-09] Q3 2026 revenue of NT$1.49T beat the LSEG SmartEstimate (NT$1.46T, 19 analysts) and the company's own guidance. That is a pattern of upside surprises into Q4. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/10/09/2003865635 ; https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/08/news-tsmc-q3-revenue-beats-forecasts-at-record-nt1-49-trillion-net-profit-seen-surging-64/
- [2021-11-10] **Counter-case for September.** In 2021, October fell 11.9% from September (NT$134.5B vs NT$152.7B) because of component shortages and delayed deliveries. Analysts then expected Nov–Dec to exceed October. In that year Sep was the top month and Nov was next. https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20211111000728-260202 ; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20211111000933-261507
- [2020-11-10] In 2020, October (NT$119.3B) fell 6.5% from a September inflated by rush Huawei shipments. September was the top month. 2026's September has no comparable known rush (it dipped from August), which weakens this analogue. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4540876
- [2016-11-10] In 2016, October was +1.5% over September, so the Oct > Sep pattern also held in a mild year. It remained below the August record, but the question is only about Sep/Oct/Nov. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20161110003891-260410
- [2022-12-09] November can be strong when iPhone and Qualcomm high-end phone orders peak. November 2022 was NT$222.71B (+50.2% y/y), when Counterpoint credited the A16 for most of the seasonal strength. This is a possible November path, but I did not retrieve the Oct 2022 figure to compare. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/09/tsmc-revenue-jumps-50percent-in-november-helped-by-apple-iphone-orders.html
- [2026-10-13] Downside risk to October: UDN reported Apple reducing orders and a Taiwan index drop of more than 1,200 points intraday. Colleagues already covered this as equity sentiment. I found nothing tying it to October wafer shipments.
- [2026-12-10] Schedule: TSMC's financial calendar page lists "TSMC Monthly Sales – November 2026" and past November releases on about Dec 8–10. That leaves the November figure due before the Dec 11 resolution. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/financial-calendar

BOTTOM LINE: October is the favourite, with a Q4 that is merely flat on Q3 already enough for it to beat September at its historical ~35% share of the quarter. November is the second most likely winner, requiring Q4 near or above +10% q/q and an unusual share. September wins only if October is hit by a supply or shipment-timing problem, as in 2020–21.

NOT FOUND: Q4 2026 guidance and exchange-rate assumption (Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 figure. Any analyst's explicit October vs November estimate. Rendered monthly rows from the official TSMC page. A confirmed primary source for the Oct 2022 figure. The pages for the TSMC calendar and the Digitimes article both timed out when fetched directly, so those facts rest on search snippets.

Upset case: the best case against the expected winner (October, per colleagues) is that September stays the top month. November is the weaker option. The evidence for either upset is thin.

- [2026-10-14] TSMC's financial calendar, fetched from the IR site, schedules the October 2026 sales release for Nov 10 and the November release for Dec 10. Both fall before the Dec 11 resolution, but the Dec 10 release leaves one day of slack. Last year's 2025 calendar also used Nov 10 and Dec 10, and TSMC has postponed a release before (June 2026 sales moved to Jul 13 because of a typhoon day-off). A delay would not change the ranking unless the November figure slipped past Dec 11. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/financial-calendar
- [2026-10-13] The NT$ fell more than 1% against the US$ to 32.237, a two-month low (GuruFocus, citing Bloomberg), with the Taiwan market down about 2% on foreign selling above NT$100B. The central bank's 2026/10/08 close was 31.875, against about 31.5 in early September. A weaker NT$ raises NT$ revenue, which favours Oct/Nov over September. It is not an upset argument. A TWD rebound in Nov would work the other way. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9120507/foreign-selling-pressure-hits-taiwan-stocks-tsmc-tsm-declines ; https://www.cbc.gov.tw/en/lp-700-2.html
- [2026-10-08] The bar September sets is low. Taiwan analysts attribute the 0.6% dip from August to customer shipment timing, and they expect Apple-related shipments to lift October. If the pushed-out shipments land in October, that supports October, not September. If the Apple order-cut reports from Oct 13 prove true, this is the upset mechanism: October stays at or below about NT$512B and September wins. That would repeat 2020 and 2021, when September was the top month. Those cases came from rush shipments or shortages, and neither is evident now. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%8F%B0%E7%A9%8D%E9%9B%BB9%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B65118%E5%84%84%E5%85%83%E5%AE%88%E4%BD%8F5000%E5%84%84%E5%A4%A7%E9%97%9C-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E5%AD%A3%E8%A1%9D1-49%E5%85%86%E5%85%83%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A%E8%B2%A1%E6%B8%AC%E9%AB%98%E6%A8%99-10%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B6%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E5%86%8D%E8%BD%89%E5%BC%B7-075925103.html
- [2025-11-10] The shape within a quarter follows guidance. For Q4 2025, October came in at NT$3,674.7B, +11% on September. Analysts then computed that Nov–Dec would average only NT$309–327B, about 11–16% below October, from guidance of Q4 -1% q/q. October beat November by that margin even in a growth year. A November win therefore needs guidance implying a back-loaded quarter. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449
- [2024-11-08] Taiwan press read the Q4 2024 guidance (US$26.1–26.9B at 32 NT$/US$, NT$835–861B) against October's NT$314B and concluded Nov/Dec would fall back. October led again that year. This points to Oct > Nov as the usual outcome. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5770275
- [2016-11-10] Counter-case for November: in 2016, TSMC's November revenue of NT$93.0B rose 2.1% on October's NT$91.1B. Analysts credited Apple A10 and Nvidia pull. Note that Q4 2016 guidance was for a 0.9–2.1% decline, yet November still beat October. A November win is not unheard of. It has been rare in the 2020–2025 cases my colleagues and I found. https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20161210000032-260202 ; https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20161111700011-439901
- [2017-11-11] In 2017, October reached a record NT$94.5B, +6.7% m/m. Analysts tied it to Apple iPhone X wafer shipments, which peaked from October. This is another year with an Apple-driven October peak. https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20171111700071-439901
- [2026-07-16] Capacity limits could produce a flat plateau. CoWoS is sold out, and TrendForce-cited reports (2026-06-15) put the supply gap at about 20% now, narrowing to about 10% by end-2026. Monthly CoWoS capacity is ramping toward 120–140k wafers. Capacity ramps through Q4, which favours later months (Nov/Dec) over October on the AI side. That is the strongest evidence-based route to a November win. It is offset by the usual Apple/consumer seasonality, which favours October. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/06/15/news-tsmc-cowos-supply-demand-gap-reportedly-seen-narrowing-from-20-to-10-by-end-2026-as-capacity-expands/
- [2026-10-12] Equity-market signals: TSM ADR closed at US$453.31 on Oct 9, about 7% below its Oct 5 high near US$487. The options-implied earnings move is ±4.3%. These reflect fear about memory and AI sentiment, not shipments. https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/tsmc-stock-price-slips-before-q3-report-october-12-2026/

BOTTOM LINE: The best upset case is September (NT$511.86B) staying on top if October shipments slip or Apple orders are cut. It would need October to come in below September, which happened in 2020 and 2021 but has few signs now. November has beaten October only in older years (e.g. 2016), and rarely recently. It becomes plausible only if the Q4 guide implies a back-loaded quarter, for example from a CoWoS ramp.

NOT FOUND: Q4 2026 guidance and its exchange-rate assumption (due Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 figure. Any analyst estimate of the monthly split. Primary confirmation of the Apple order-cut report. The rendered monthly rows on the TSMC IR page.

13 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-13] Taiwan Stock Market Plummets Over 1,200 Points Amid Regional Outflows and Tech Sector Focus
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7251/9811402
  - On October 13, 2026, Taiwan's weighted stock index plummeted by over 1,200 points intraday, reaching a low of 48,066 points, a drop of 1,235 points, driven by poor US stock performance and Apple reducing orders, according to UDN.
  - Bloomberg statistics indicate that Asian stocks have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks; South Korea recorded an outflow of $4.857 billion last week, while India saw $2.655 billion in outflows, with South Korea's year-to-date outflows exceeding $130 billion.
  - Despite the recent decline, Taiwan's stock market has surged 70.2% year-to-date, outperforming South Korea's 57.2% rise and leading Asian markets, though it failed to break the 50,000-point threshold last Friday.
  - Guo Ming-yu, the proposed manager of the E.SUN Taiwan Key Technology Active ETF (00413A), noted that the 50,000-point level has become a short-term resistance zone due to profit-taking before the National Day holiday.
  - However, Lin Zhe-yu, manager of the E.SUN Tech Island Fund, maintains a positive outlook for October and November, citing pre-election sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy window, with the P/E ratio holding around 18-19 times.
  - Lin highlighted that rising AI investment demand is driving up earnings forecasts, supporting the bull market.
  - The summary also notes that TSMC (2330) reported September revenue of NT$511.8 billion, a 54.6% year-over-year increase, marking its second consecutive month above NT$500 billion and setting a second-highest record, while Q3 cumulative revenue reached NT$1.4942 trillion, a new single-quarter high.
  - TSMC's upcoming earnings conference on October 15 will focus on Q4 and next-year outlooks, AI growth trends, advanced processes, advanced packaging, overseas factory progress, and capital expenditure plans.
  - Lin suggests maintaining high stock positions with range trading, focusing on upstream semiconductors, electronic components, ASIC custom chips, optical communications, and ABF substrates, noting that the optical communications sector has clear visibility and growth potential from 2027 to 2029.

[2026-10-12] TSMC September Revenue Hits Record High; Q3 Earnings Call Scheduled for October 15
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7255/9810110
  - According to UDN, TSMC (2330), the leading foundry, reported September revenue of 54.6% year-over-year growth and 0.6% month-over-month decline, while Q3 revenue rose 17.6% quarter-over-quarter and 50.9% year-over-year, setting a new single-quarter record.
  - High-performance computing and artificial intelligence demand continue to drive advanced process and advanced packaging growth.
  - TSMC is scheduled to hold its Q3 earnings call on October 15, 2026, where market focus will be on Q4 outlook, advanced process demand, and capital expenditure plans.
  - Foreign media reports that cloud providers are expanding AI infrastructure, sustaining strong demand for advanced AI chips and CoWoS advanced packaging.
  - However, as the company is in a pre-earnings silence period, management's comments on demand sustainability, capacity allocation, and global layout remain to be seen.
  - Technically, short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages (5, 10, 20, and 60-day) maintain a bullish alignment with upward slopes on the 20-day and 60-day lines, indicating medium-term momentum remains supported by fundamentals.
  - However, short-term price action shows consolidation near the 5-day moving average following a rapid rise, suggesting potential volatility ahead of the earnings call.
  - Overall, TSMC futures maintain a positive medium-term technical structure, though short-term risks around major events require monitoring of volume, moving averages, and management guidance.

[2026-10-12] Evergreen Marine Hits Limit Up on Record Revenue as Shipping Sector Rallies Despite Market Downturn
三立新聞 — https://www.setn.com/news/1921197
  - On October 12, 2026, the Taiwan stock market experienced volatility with the weighted index falling 94.81 points (0.19%) to close at 49,218.63, yet the shipping sector surged in a counter-trend rally led by Evergreen Marine (2603).
  - Evergreen Marine, the container shipping leader, hit its daily price limit (up 9.89% to 255.5 NTD) following its September consolidated revenue report of 49.711 billion NTD, which rose 65.04% year-over-year and marked its highest monthly total since September 2024.
  - Evergreen General Manager Wu Kuang-hui attributed the record-breaking performance to sustained high freight rates, stating that there is no pessimistic outlook for the US route through the Lunar New Year of the following year.
  - A local investment consultant upgraded Evergreen's investment rating to 'buy' with a target price of 283 NTD, based on an estimated 2027 year-end net asset value of 298.36 NTD per share and a price-to-book ratio of 0.95.
  - The analyst cited three key drivers: Q3 seasonal demand and freight rate increases outpacing fuel costs; Q4 support from pre-Lunar New Year inventory buildup in North America and growth in European and Asian routes; and effective capacity constraints caused by port congestion and Red Sea diversions offsetting new ship deliveries in 2027.
  - Consequently, other shipping stocks including Yang Ming (2609), Wan Hai (2615), and Hsin Chong (2605) also posted gains, while the broader market remained weak.

[2026-10-12] TSMC Earnings, Apple Smart Home Launch, and US Inflation Data This Week
businesstoday.com.tw — https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/183025/post/202610120019/
  - On October 12, 2026, key business events are scheduled for the week of October 13-15, 2026, focusing on TSMC, Apple, and US economic data.
  - TSMC (2330) is set to hold its Q3 2026 earnings conference on Thursday, October 15, at 2:00 PM.
  - The company reported Q3 2026 revenue of 149.42 billion New Taiwan Dollars, exceeding the high-end forecast, with cumulative revenue for the first three quarters reaching 389.87 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-over-year increase of over 40%.
  - The company has set a gross margin target of 65% to 67%.
  - Investors are focused on advanced packaging capacity and potential capital expenditure announcements.
  - President Donald Trump previously stated in an interview with Time magazine that a 'great Taiwanese chip company' plans to invest $500 billion in the US, widely interpreted as TSMC.
  - TSMC Chairman Morris Chang had previously announced a $100 billion increase in US investment, bringing the total US investment to $265 billion.
  - TSMC has also signed a five-year manufacturing agreement with GlobalFoundries to produce silicon interposers for its CoWoS advanced packaging at GlobalFoundries' Fab 8 in New York.
  - Separately, Apple is scheduled to hold its October product launch event on October 13, 2026, with the theme 'Welcome home,' signaling a focus on smart home products.
  - The event is expected to showcase updates to HomePod, HomePod mini, and Apple TV, and potentially introduce a new device called 'HomePad,' a touchscreen speaker intended to serve as a home hub powered by the newly matured Siri AI, now available with iOS 27 and macOS 27.

[2026-10-12] Taiwan's Top Four Wafer Foundries Report Record Revenue Growth in 2026
三立新聞 — https://www.setn.com/news/1921493
  - According to the October 12 2026 report by Sanli News, Taiwan's semiconductor industry is experiencing a strong revenue surge, driven by leading wafer foundries TSMC (2330), UMC (2303), Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347), and Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing (6770).
  - TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.857 billion, up 54.7% year-over-year, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months reaching NT$3.898 trillion, a 41.1% increase.
  - The company's Q3 consolidated revenue hit NT$1.49 trillion, exceeding high-end forecasts, and is expected to maintain double-digit quarterly growth in Q4 due to the ramp-up of 2-nanometer capacity.
  - TSMC projects a full-year 2026 revenue growth rate exceeding 45%, with a CAGR of over 33% expected from 2026 to 2028, and confirmed construction continuity through 2032.
  - UMC reported September revenue of NT$25.35 billion, a 27.2% year-over-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months at NT$204.01 billion, up 16.1%.
  - Vanguard International Semiconductor reported September revenue of NT$5.904 billion, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months at NT$42.479 billion, up 18.0% year-over-year, achieving 102.2% of market expectations.
  - Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing reported September revenue of NT$7.665 billion, a 94.0% year-over-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months at NT$52.205 billion, up 52.5% year-over-year, achieving 111.5% of market expectations.
  - All four companies are expected to continue their growth momentum in Q4 2026, supported by increased advanced process capacity, higher utilization rates in mature processes, and rising foundry prices.

[2026-10-12] TSMC ADRs and U.S. Tech Stocks Weaken; Taiwan Market Expected to Consolidate Ahead of Oct 15 Earnings
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202610120017.aspx
  - On October 12, 2026, the Central News Agency reported that while major U.S. stock indices rebounded on October 9—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.83% to 51,654.95 points, the S&P 500 gaining 0.59%, and the Nasdaq up 0.64%—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.41%.
  - During the Taiwanese stock market holiday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had cumulatively dropped 3.77%, and TSMC ADRs fell approximately 4%, according to investment advisors.
  - On October 8, the Taiwan stock market opened lower and closed down 492.93 points at 49,313.44 points, with a trading volume of NT$869.696 billion; major institutions sold net NT$89.895 billion, with foreign investors selling net NT$75.852 billion.
  - Foreign investors' top seller was 'Active CITIC Taiwan Earnings' with 59,463 shares, while top buyers included 'Active Uni-Upgrade 50' and South Africa Semiconductor.
  - TSMC reported September consolidated revenue of NT$511.857 billion, a monthly decrease of 0.6% but a year-over-year increase of 54.6%, reaching a record high for the same period; cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2026 was NT$3.898727 trillion, up 41.1% year-over-year.
  - The market will focus on TSMC's investor relations meeting scheduled for October 15, where the company will present third-quarter financial results and fourth-quarter outlooks, with particular attention on artificial intelligence demand, advanced process technology, advanced packaging, and the impact of overseas expansion on costs and gross margins.
  - Additionally, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) announced on October 9 that it has voted to initiate a Section 337 investigation into certain vertical power transmission systems, components, and configuration systems for computing equipment, naming Taiwan-based companies Foxconn, Delta Electronics, and Quanta Computer as respondents; the companies stated they respect intellectual property rights and will respond according to legal procedures, asserting that their operations remain unaffected.

[2026-10-09] TSMC Revenue Surges 51% Yet Stock Dips as Investors Weigh Future Profitability and Expansion (analysis)
Aktien Check — https://www.aktiencheck.de/analysen/Artikel-TSMC_Aktienanalyse_Umsatzsprung_trifft_Kursrutsch_was_Anleger_jetzt_wissen_muessen-20158613
  - On October 8, 2026, TSMC reported a consolidated monthly revenue of approximately 511.86 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NT$) for September, representing a 54.6% year-over-year increase from 330.98 billion NT$ in September 2025, and a 51% increase in the third quarter to approximately 41.7 billion EUR, surpassing market expectations.
  - Despite this strong performance, TSMC's stock, traded in New York, fell by 14.21 USD (3.01%) to close at 457.99 USD on Thursday, October 8, 2026, before a minor after-hours rebound of 1.11 USD (0.24%) to 459.10 USD by 19:59 EDT.
  - The article notes that while the nine-month revenue from January to September reached 3,898.73 billion NT$ (a 41.1% increase compared to 2,762.96 billion NT$ in the prior year), the stock decline highlights the market's focus on future profitability, capital expenditure requirements, and the translation of revenue into sustainable earnings.
  - Key factors influencing investor sentiment include potential expansion plans beyond the existing US site in Arizona to Texas, where Elon Musk is planning the 'Terafab' project, though the article states that no concrete investment decisions regarding Texas have been made.
  - The report emphasizes that risks remain regarding demand shifts, execution delays, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations, concluding that while the September numbers are positive, the stock's valuation depends on future margins and cash flow rather than revenue alone.

[2026-10-09] Taiwan Tech and Trade Highlights: TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record, Evergreen Sees Strong Demand, Export Growth Streak Hits 35 Months
Anue鉅亨 — https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6626125
  - On October 8, 2026, TSMC (2330-TW) announced September revenue of 511.857 billion NTD, a 0.6% monthly decrease but a 54.6% year-over-year increase, marking its second consecutive month exceeding 500 billion NTD and setting a historical second-highest monthly record; its Q3 revenue reached 149.4244 billion NTD, a new single-quarter high that surpassed high-end forecasts, representing a 17.62% quarterly increase and a 50.94% year-over-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months totaling 389.8727 billion NTD, up 41.1% year-over-year.
  - Evergreen Marine (2603-TW) reported September consolidated revenue of 49.711 billion NTD, a 1.48% monthly increase and a 65.04% year-over-year increase, the highest since September 2024; General Manager Wu Kuang-hui stated that the peak season has not ended, with the US route remaining strong until the Chinese New Year next year, though he expressed concern that US inflation could weaken terminal demand after the second quarter of next year due to a 'lag period'.
  - The Ministry of Finance announced on October 8 that September import, export, and trade surplus figures all hit historical highs, extending export growth to 35 consecutive months, breaking the previous record for the longest streak of positive growth in Taiwan's export history.
  - Largan Precision (3008-TW) reported Q3 after-tax profit of 5.182 billion NTD, a 11% quarterly increase but a 26.8% year-over-year decrease, with earnings per share of 39.62 NTD; cumulative profit for the first three quarters was 15.976 billion NTD, up 9.76% year-over-year, with earnings per share of 121.98 NTD; Chairman Lin En-ping noted that the Fiber Array (FA) passed customer certification in September, with capacity discussions expected in October and completion by mid-2027, while Fiber Array Units (FAU) could ship by mid-2027 and multi-row FA remains in sampling for a 2028 project.
  - The Micron (MU-US) Taiwan strike continued, with the MTTW union announcing on October 7 that after 6 days of voting, they have officially obtained the right to strike and set up picket lines, drawing high attention from Micron employees in the US, Singapore, Japan, and India as Taiwan is Micron's largest manufacturing base.
  […]

[2026-10-08] TSMC and Vanguard International Semiconductor Report Record Q3 Revenues Driven by AI Demand
自由時報電子報 — https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1773789
  - TSMC (2330) and its subsidiary Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347) reported September revenues that exceeded market expectations.
  - TSMC's September revenue reached 511.857 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD), marking the second consecutive month exceeding the 500 billion NTD milestone and setting a historical second-highest monthly figure, just below August's 514.806 billion NTD.
  - For the third quarter (Q3), TSMC's revenue surged to 1.494244 trillion NTD, representing a 17.6% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 50.94% year-over-year increase, surpassing the company's previously forecasted high-end target of approximately 1.4656 trillion NTD (based on a 32 NTD per USD exchange rate).
  - Cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2026 stood at 3.898727 trillion NTD, a 41.1% increase from the same period last year.
  - Vanguard International Semiconductor reported September revenue of 5.904 billion NTD, a 15.9% monthly increase and 15.5% annual increase, also reaching a historical second-highest level.
  - Vanguard's Q3 revenue rose 10.27% quarter-over-quarter to 15.7 billion NTD.
  - The company's joint venture with NXP, VSMC in Singapore, has officially opened, with 99% yield on initial test wafers and full booking of capacity, scheduled for mass production in Q1 2027.
  - TSMC is scheduled to hold a financial briefing on October 15, 2026, where market attention will focus on AI growth drivers, advanced process capacity expansion, capital expenditure plans for next year, potential price adjustments, and future overseas expansion including a potential new facility in Texas, USA.

[2026-10-07] Farnell Q3 Revenue Hits Record High of 21.9 Billion NTD, Surpasses Full Year 2025
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7252/9800723
  - On October 7, 2026, semiconductor facility and equipment manufacturer Farnell (6196) reported consolidated revenue of 71.74 billion NTD for September, a 0.6% monthly decrease but an 88.5% year-over-year increase, marking a new record for the same period.
  - The third quarter consolidated revenue reached 219.1 billion NTD, a 3.4% quarterly increase and a 91.1% year-over-year increase, setting a new single-quarter record for two consecutive quarters.
  - Cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2026 totaled 574.21 billion NTD, a 55.5% year-over-year increase, surpassing the full-year 2025 revenue of 515.67 billion NTD by 11.4%.
  - Chairman Gao Xinming stated that the company's order backlog stands at 135.1 billion NTD, with visibility extending at least until 2028, and operational plans are already in place for 2029 and 2030.
  - Farnell is actively supporting overseas expansion projects, including work on TSMC's (2330) second factory in Japan and construction in Germany, utilizing local teams for the US and German projects.
  - The company is also capitalizing on advanced packaging expansion, with the highest demand this year focused on CoWoS-related equipment.

[… older articles omitted]

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343 (also SEC 6-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm)) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: TSMC's official September 2026 revenue report, dated October 8, 2026, puts consolidated net revenue at NT$511,857 million (about NT$511.86 billion). That is 0.6% below August's NT$514,806 million and 54.6% above September 2025. October 2026 revenue (normally released around November 10) and November 2026 revenue (around December 10) have not been published yet, so September's NT$511.86B is the only one of the three months reported so far.
  Last updated: 2026-10-08 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The figure comes from TSMC's own press release and SEC filing, which match what the monthly revenue page shows, but I could not see that page's table directly. Recent monthly figures (NT$ millions): July 467,580; August 514,806; September 511,857. September came in slightly below August. TSMC reports Q3 earnings in the week of about Oct 15, 2026, and its Q4 guidance there will give a hint about October and November. For context, a Q4 total of about NT$1.55T+ would average above NT$511.86B a month. If there is a tie, the earlier month wins.
  Fetched: fetch: https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 (HTTP 403)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/tsmc-revenue-surge-ai-chip-big-tech.html (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 (HTTP 200)

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

### earnings_data (SUCCESS)
Company financial data:
  TSM: Price=$445.12 | MCap=? | Revenue=?
  2330.TW: Price=$2525.0 | MCap=? | Revenue=?

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
Which month will have the highest officially reported TSMC consolidated net revenue among September, October, and November 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
CNBC: [World’s biggest chipmaker TSMC’s sales surge 45% amid buoyant AI demand](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/tsmc-revenue-surge-ai-chip-big-tech.html)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "20929550b1cfbfad", "sheet_id": "6"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves to the option whose month has the highest consolidated net revenue among September, October, and November 2026, using TSMC’s official 2026 Monthly Revenue page at https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026  In case of tie, the tiebreaker is the month occuring sooner.

## Options
  - September 2026
  - October 2026
  - November 2026

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — read through a secondary source (https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343 (also SEC 6-K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm)) that reports the same figure, not the page the criteria name; anchor on it with that caveat:
  Current state: TSMC's official September 2026 revenue report, dated October 8, 2026, puts consolidated net revenue at NT$511,857 million (about NT$511.86 billion). That is 0.6% below August's NT$514,806 million and 54.6% above September 2025. October 2026 revenue (normally released around November 10) and November 2026 revenue (around December 10) have not been published yet, so September's NT$511.86B is the only one of the three months reported so far.
  Last updated: 2026-10-08 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: The figure comes from TSMC's own press release and SEC filing, which match what the monthly revenue page shows, but I could not see that page's table directly. Recent monthly figures (NT$ millions): July 467,580; August 514,806; September 511,857. September came in slightly below August. TSMC reports Q3 earnings in the week of about Oct 15, 2026, and its Q4 guidance there will give a hint about October and November. For context, a Q4 total of about NT$1.55T+ would average above NT$511.86B a month. If there is a tie, the earlier month wins.
  Fetched: fetch: https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 (HTTP 403)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/tsmc-revenue-surge-ai-chip-big-tech.html (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026 (HTTP 200)

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

### earnings_data (SUCCESS)
Company financial data:
  TSM: Price=$445.12 | MCap=? | Revenue=?
  2330.TW: Price=$2525.0 | MCap=? | Revenue=?

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-14; forecasting closes 2026-10-14; resolves 2026-12-11. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
13 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-13] Taiwan Stock Market Plummets Over 1,200 Points Amid Regional Outflows and Tech Sector Focus
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7251/9811402
  - On October 13, 2026, Taiwan's weighted stock index plummeted by over 1,200 points intraday, reaching a low of 48,066 points, a drop of 1,235 points, driven by poor US stock performance and Apple reducing orders, according to UDN.
  - Bloomberg statistics indicate that Asian stocks have seen net outflows for two consecutive weeks; South Korea recorded an outflow of $4.857 billion last week, while India saw $2.655 billion in outflows, with South Korea's year-to-date outflows exceeding $130 billion.
  - Despite the recent decline, Taiwan's stock market has surged 70.2% year-to-date, outperforming South Korea's 57.2% rise and leading Asian markets, though it failed to break the 50,000-point threshold last Friday.
  - Guo Ming-yu, the proposed manager of the E.SUN Taiwan Key Technology Active ETF (00413A), noted that the 50,000-point level has become a short-term resistance zone due to profit-taking before the National Day holiday.
  - However, Lin Zhe-yu, manager of the E.SUN Tech Island Fund, maintains a positive outlook for October and November, citing pre-election sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy window, with the P/E ratio holding around 18-19 times.
  - Lin highlighted that rising AI investment demand is driving up earnings forecasts, supporting the bull market.
  - The summary also notes that TSMC (2330) reported September revenue of NT$511.8 billion, a 54.6% year-over-year increase, marking its second consecutive month above NT$500 billion and setting a second-highest record, while Q3 cumulative revenue reached NT$1.4942 trillion, a new single-quarter high.
  - TSMC's upcoming earnings conference on October 15 will focus on Q4 and next-year outlooks, AI growth trends, advanced processes, advanced packaging, overseas factory progress, and capital expenditure plans.
  - Lin suggests maintaining high stock positions with range trading, focusing on upstream semiconductors, electronic components, ASIC custom chips, optical communications, and ABF substrates, noting that the optical communications sector has clear visibility and growth potential from 2027 to 2029.

[2026-10-12] TSMC September Revenue Hits Record High; Q3 Earnings Call Scheduled for October 15
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7255/9810110
  - According to UDN, TSMC (2330), the leading foundry, reported September revenue of 54.6% year-over-year growth and 0.6% month-over-month decline, while Q3 revenue rose 17.6% quarter-over-quarter and 50.9% year-over-year, setting a new single-quarter record.
  - High-performance computing and artificial intelligence demand continue to drive advanced process and advanced packaging growth.
  - TSMC is scheduled to hold its Q3 earnings call on October 15, 2026, where market focus will be on Q4 outlook, advanced process demand, and capital expenditure plans.
  - Foreign media reports that cloud providers are expanding AI infrastructure, sustaining strong demand for advanced AI chips and CoWoS advanced packaging.
  - However, as the company is in a pre-earnings silence period, management's comments on demand sustainability, capacity allocation, and global layout remain to be seen.
  - Technically, short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages (5, 10, 20, and 60-day) maintain a bullish alignment with upward slopes on the 20-day and 60-day lines, indicating medium-term momentum remains supported by fundamentals.
  - However, short-term price action shows consolidation near the 5-day moving average following a rapid rise, suggesting potential volatility ahead of the earnings call.
  - Overall, TSMC futures maintain a positive medium-term technical structure, though short-term risks around major events require monitoring of volume, moving averages, and management guidance.

[2026-10-12] Evergreen Marine Hits Limit Up on Record Revenue as Shipping Sector Rallies Despite Market Downturn
三立新聞 — https://www.setn.com/news/1921197
  - On October 12, 2026, the Taiwan stock market experienced volatility with the weighted index falling 94.81 points (0.19%) to close at 49,218.63, yet the shipping sector surged in a counter-trend rally led by Evergreen Marine (2603).
  - Evergreen Marine, the container shipping leader, hit its daily price limit (up 9.89% to 255.5 NTD) following its September consolidated revenue report of 49.711 billion NTD, which rose 65.04% year-over-year and marked its highest monthly total since September 2024.
  - Evergreen General Manager Wu Kuang-hui attributed the record-breaking performance to sustained high freight rates, stating that there is no pessimistic outlook for the US route through the Lunar New Year of the following year.
  - A local investment consultant upgraded Evergreen's investment rating to 'buy' with a target price of 283 NTD, based on an estimated 2027 year-end net asset value of 298.36 NTD per share and a price-to-book ratio of 0.95.
  - The analyst cited three key drivers: Q3 seasonal demand and freight rate increases outpacing fuel costs; Q4 support from pre-Lunar New Year inventory buildup in North America and growth in European and Asian routes; and effective capacity constraints caused by port congestion and Red Sea diversions offsetting new ship deliveries in 2027.
  - Consequently, other shipping stocks including Yang Ming (2609), Wan Hai (2615), and Hsin Chong (2605) also posted gains, while the broader market remained weak.

[2026-10-12] TSMC Earnings, Apple Smart Home Launch, and US Inflation Data This Week
businesstoday.com.tw — https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/183025/post/202610120019/
  - On October 12, 2026, key business events are scheduled for the week of October 13-15, 2026, focusing on TSMC, Apple, and US economic data.
  - TSMC (2330) is set to hold its Q3 2026 earnings conference on Thursday, October 15, at 2:00 PM.
  - The company reported Q3 2026 revenue of 149.42 billion New Taiwan Dollars, exceeding the high-end forecast, with cumulative revenue for the first three quarters reaching 389.87 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-over-year increase of over 40%.
  - The company has set a gross margin target of 65% to 67%.
  - Investors are focused on advanced packaging capacity and potential capital expenditure announcements.
  - President Donald Trump previously stated in an interview with Time magazine that a 'great Taiwanese chip company' plans to invest $500 billion in the US, widely interpreted as TSMC.
  - TSMC Chairman Morris Chang had previously announced a $100 billion increase in US investment, bringing the total US investment to $265 billion.
  - TSMC has also signed a five-year manufacturing agreement with GlobalFoundries to produce silicon interposers for its CoWoS advanced packaging at GlobalFoundries' Fab 8 in New York.
  - Separately, Apple is scheduled to hold its October product launch event on October 13, 2026, with the theme 'Welcome home,' signaling a focus on smart home products.
  - The event is expected to showcase updates to HomePod, HomePod mini, and Apple TV, and potentially introduce a new device called 'HomePad,' a touchscreen speaker intended to serve as a home hub powered by the newly matured Siri AI, now available with iOS 27 and macOS 27.

[2026-10-12] Taiwan's Top Four Wafer Foundries Report Record Revenue Growth in 2026
三立新聞 — https://www.setn.com/news/1921493
  - According to the October 12 2026 report by Sanli News, Taiwan's semiconductor industry is experiencing a strong revenue surge, driven by leading wafer foundries TSMC (2330), UMC (2303), Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347), and Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing (6770).
  - TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.857 billion, up 54.7% year-over-year, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months reaching NT$3.898 trillion, a 41.1% increase.
  - The company's Q3 consolidated revenue hit NT$1.49 trillion, exceeding high-end forecasts, and is expected to maintain double-digit quarterly growth in Q4 due to the ramp-up of 2-nanometer capacity.
  - TSMC projects a full-year 2026 revenue growth rate exceeding 45%, with a CAGR of over 33% expected from 2026 to 2028, and confirmed construction continuity through 2032.
  - UMC reported September revenue of NT$25.35 billion, a 27.2% year-over-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months at NT$204.01 billion, up 16.1%.
  - Vanguard International Semiconductor reported September revenue of NT$5.904 billion, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months at NT$42.479 billion, up 18.0% year-over-year, achieving 102.2% of market expectations.
  - Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing reported September revenue of NT$7.665 billion, a 94.0% year-over-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months at NT$52.205 billion, up 52.5% year-over-year, achieving 111.5% of market expectations.
  - All four companies are expected to continue their growth momentum in Q4 2026, supported by increased advanced process capacity, higher utilization rates in mature processes, and rising foundry prices.

[2026-10-12] TSMC ADRs and U.S. Tech Stocks Weaken; Taiwan Market Expected to Consolidate Ahead of Oct 15 Earnings
Central News Agency — https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202610120017.aspx
  - On October 12, 2026, the Central News Agency reported that while major U.S. stock indices rebounded on October 9—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.83% to 51,654.95 points, the S&P 500 gaining 0.59%, and the Nasdaq up 0.64%—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.41%.
  - During the Taiwanese stock market holiday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had cumulatively dropped 3.77%, and TSMC ADRs fell approximately 4%, according to investment advisors.
  - On October 8, the Taiwan stock market opened lower and closed down 492.93 points at 49,313.44 points, with a trading volume of NT$869.696 billion; major institutions sold net NT$89.895 billion, with foreign investors selling net NT$75.852 billion.
  - Foreign investors' top seller was 'Active CITIC Taiwan Earnings' with 59,463 shares, while top buyers included 'Active Uni-Upgrade 50' and South Africa Semiconductor.
  - TSMC reported September consolidated revenue of NT$511.857 billion, a monthly decrease of 0.6% but a year-over-year increase of 54.6%, reaching a record high for the same period; cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2026 was NT$3.898727 trillion, up 41.1% year-over-year.
  - The market will focus on TSMC's investor relations meeting scheduled for October 15, where the company will present third-quarter financial results and fourth-quarter outlooks, with particular attention on artificial intelligence demand, advanced process technology, advanced packaging, and the impact of overseas expansion on costs and gross margins.
  - Additionally, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) announced on October 9 that it has voted to initiate a Section 337 investigation into certain vertical power transmission systems, components, and configuration systems for computing equipment, naming Taiwan-based companies Foxconn, Delta Electronics, and Quanta Computer as respondents; the companies stated they respect intellectual property rights and will respond according to legal procedures, asserting that their operations remain unaffected.

[2026-10-09] TSMC Revenue Surges 51% Yet Stock Dips as Investors Weigh Future Profitability and Expansion (analysis)
Aktien Check — https://www.aktiencheck.de/analysen/Artikel-TSMC_Aktienanalyse_Umsatzsprung_trifft_Kursrutsch_was_Anleger_jetzt_wissen_muessen-20158613
  - On October 8, 2026, TSMC reported a consolidated monthly revenue of approximately 511.86 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NT$) for September, representing a 54.6% year-over-year increase from 330.98 billion NT$ in September 2025, and a 51% increase in the third quarter to approximately 41.7 billion EUR, surpassing market expectations.
  - Despite this strong performance, TSMC's stock, traded in New York, fell by 14.21 USD (3.01%) to close at 457.99 USD on Thursday, October 8, 2026, before a minor after-hours rebound of 1.11 USD (0.24%) to 459.10 USD by 19:59 EDT.
  - The article notes that while the nine-month revenue from January to September reached 3,898.73 billion NT$ (a 41.1% increase compared to 2,762.96 billion NT$ in the prior year), the stock decline highlights the market's focus on future profitability, capital expenditure requirements, and the translation of revenue into sustainable earnings.
  - Key factors influencing investor sentiment include potential expansion plans beyond the existing US site in Arizona to Texas, where Elon Musk is planning the 'Terafab' project, though the article states that no concrete investment decisions regarding Texas have been made.
  - The report emphasizes that risks remain regarding demand shifts, execution delays, geopolitical tensions, and currency fluctuations, concluding that while the September numbers are positive, the stock's valuation depends on future margins and cash flow rather than revenue alone.

[2026-10-09] Taiwan Tech and Trade Highlights: TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record, Evergreen Sees Strong Demand, Export Growth Streak Hits 35 Months
Anue鉅亨 — https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6626125
  - On October 8, 2026, TSMC (2330-TW) announced September revenue of 511.857 billion NTD, a 0.6% monthly decrease but a 54.6% year-over-year increase, marking its second consecutive month exceeding 500 billion NTD and setting a historical second-highest monthly record; its Q3 revenue reached 149.4244 billion NTD, a new single-quarter high that surpassed high-end forecasts, representing a 17.62% quarterly increase and a 50.94% year-over-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first nine months totaling 389.8727 billion NTD, up 41.1% year-over-year.
  - Evergreen Marine (2603-TW) reported September consolidated revenue of 49.711 billion NTD, a 1.48% monthly increase and a 65.04% year-over-year increase, the highest since September 2024; General Manager Wu Kuang-hui stated that the peak season has not ended, with the US route remaining strong until the Chinese New Year next year, though he expressed concern that US inflation could weaken terminal demand after the second quarter of next year due to a 'lag period'.
  - The Ministry of Finance announced on October 8 that September import, export, and trade surplus figures all hit historical highs, extending export growth to 35 consecutive months, breaking the previous record for the longest streak of positive growth in Taiwan's export history.
  - Largan Precision (3008-TW) reported Q3 after-tax profit of 5.182 billion NTD, a 11% quarterly increase but a 26.8% year-over-year decrease, with earnings per share of 39.62 NTD; cumulative profit for the first three quarters was 15.976 billion NTD, up 9.76% year-over-year, with earnings per share of 121.98 NTD; Chairman Lin En-ping noted that the Fiber Array (FA) passed customer certification in September, with capacity discussions expected in October and completion by mid-2027, while Fiber Array Units (FAU) could ship by mid-2027 and multi-row FA remains in sampling for a 2028 project.
  - The Micron (MU-US) Taiwan strike continued, with the MTTW union announcing on October 7 that after 6 days of voting, they have officially obtained the right to strike and set up picket lines, drawing high attention from Micron employees in the US, Singapore, Japan, and India as Taiwan is Micron's largest manufacturing base.
  […]

[2026-10-08] TSMC and Vanguard International Semiconductor Report Record Q3 Revenues Driven by AI Demand
自由時報電子報 — https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/paper/1773789
  - TSMC (2330) and its subsidiary Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347) reported September revenues that exceeded market expectations.
  - TSMC's September revenue reached 511.857 billion New Taiwan Dollars (NTD), marking the second consecutive month exceeding the 500 billion NTD milestone and setting a historical second-highest monthly figure, just below August's 514.806 billion NTD.
  - For the third quarter (Q3), TSMC's revenue surged to 1.494244 trillion NTD, representing a 17.6% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 50.94% year-over-year increase, surpassing the company's previously forecasted high-end target of approximately 1.4656 trillion NTD (based on a 32 NTD per USD exchange rate).
  - Cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2026 stood at 3.898727 trillion NTD, a 41.1% increase from the same period last year.
  - Vanguard International Semiconductor reported September revenue of 5.904 billion NTD, a 15.9% monthly increase and 15.5% annual increase, also reaching a historical second-highest level.
  - Vanguard's Q3 revenue rose 10.27% quarter-over-quarter to 15.7 billion NTD.
  - The company's joint venture with NXP, VSMC in Singapore, has officially opened, with 99% yield on initial test wafers and full booking of capacity, scheduled for mass production in Q1 2027.
  - TSMC is scheduled to hold a financial briefing on October 15, 2026, where market attention will focus on AI growth drivers, advanced process capacity expansion, capital expenditure plans for next year, potential price adjustments, and future overseas expansion including a potential new facility in Texas, USA.

[2026-10-07] Farnell Q3 Revenue Hits Record High of 21.9 Billion NTD, Surpasses Full Year 2025
UDN — https://udn.com/news/story/7252/9800723
  - On October 7, 2026, semiconductor facility and equipment manufacturer Farnell (6196) reported consolidated revenue of 71.74 billion NTD for September, a 0.6% monthly decrease but an 88.5% year-over-year increase, marking a new record for the same period.
  - The third quarter consolidated revenue reached 219.1 billion NTD, a 3.4% quarterly increase and a 91.1% year-over-year increase, setting a new single-quarter record for two consecutive quarters.
  - Cumulative revenue for the first nine months of 2026 totaled 574.21 billion NTD, a 55.5% year-over-year increase, surpassing the full-year 2025 revenue of 515.67 billion NTD by 11.4%.
  - Chairman Gao Xinming stated that the company's order backlog stands at 135.1 billion NTD, with visibility extending at least until 2028, and operational plans are already in place for 2029 and 2030.
  - Farnell is actively supporting overseas expansion projects, including work on TSMC's (2330) second factory in Japan and construction in Germany, utilizing local teams for the US and German projects.
  - The company is also capitalizing on advanced packaging expansion, with the highest demand this year focused on CoWoS-related equipment.

[… older articles omitted]

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-14] The official TSMC monthly-revenue page (investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026) returned HTTP 403 when I tried to open it. I used TSMC's own press releases and its SEC 6-K filings of the same figures instead. Neither Oct nor Nov 2026 revenue exists yet. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
- [2026-10-08] TSMC's release gives September 2026 consolidated revenue of NT$511,857M. That is down 0.6% from August and up 54.6% from September 2025 (NT$330,980M). Jan–Sep revenue was NT$3,898.73B, up 41.1%. https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343 ; 6-K: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm
- [2026-09-10] August 2026 revenue was NT$514,806M, up 10.1% from July (NT$467,580M) and up 53.3% year on year. This is the highest month on record. September (NT$511,857M) is about NT$2.95B, or 0.6%, below August. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000658/tsm-revenue20260910.htm
- [2026-08-10 / 2026-07-13] The monthly path before that was June NT$442,680M, July NT$467,580M, then August NT$514,806M. Press reports described August as the fourth straight monthly increase. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000471/tsm-revenue20260810.htm ; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/10/tsmc-august-revenue-chip-ai.html
- [2026-10-08] Q3 revenue totalled NT$1,494.24B, up about 51% year on year. Converted at TSMC's assumed rate of 32, that is about US$46.7B. The July guidance was US$44.6–45.8B, so the quarter came in about 2% above the top of the range. https://www.yxinsights.com/p/tsmc-tsm-stock-q3-2026-revenue-guidance ; guidance table: https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3
- [2026-10-08] CNBC corrected its story to say September did not set a monthly record. That fits the figures, since August is higher. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/tsmc-september-sales-hit-another-record-as-ai-boom-rolls-on.html
- [2026-10-15, scheduled] The Q3 earnings conference is at 14:00 Taiwan time. It will include Q4 2026 revenue guidance, the main available indicator for October–November. TSMC's quiet period runs Oct 5–14, so no Q4 guidance was public as of today. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3
- [2026-10-13] Taiwan's index fell more than 1,200 points intraday. UDN attributed this to weak US stocks and reports of Apple cutting orders. Asian equities saw outflows for a second week. This is sentiment, not TSMC revenue data. https://udn.com/news/story/7251/9811402
- [2026-10-12] A Taiwanese market article says the earnings call will focus on Q4 and next-year outlook, advanced packaging, capex and overseas fabs. Another preview (2026-10-13) says capex guidance for 2026 had already been raised to US$60–64B, but I did not confirm that on a primary page. https://www.businesstoday.com.tw/article/category/183025/post/202610120019/ ; https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/pratinjau-laba-tsmc-q3-2026-pertumbuhan-didorong-oleh-permintaan-ai
- [Schedule] Based on TSMC's usual pattern (July figures on Aug 10, August on Sep 10, September on Oct 8), the October figure should come around Nov 10 and the November figure around Dec 10. Both fall before the Dec 11 resolution. This timing is inferred from past releases, not confirmed.
- [2026-10-14] Reference levels for the three months: September is NT$511.86B. The earlier months to beat or fall short of are August at NT$514.81B and July at NT$467.58B.

BOTTOM LINE: September is already fixed at NT$511.86B, slightly below the August record. October or November needs to exceed that, and any Q4 guidance on Oct 15 will be the first real signal for them. The resolution page itself could not be opened, but the primary releases match.

NOT FOUND: TSMC's Q4 2026 revenue guidance and exchange-rate assumption (not released until Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 revenue figure. The rendered content of the official monthly-revenue page (403). Any primary-source confirmation of the US$60–64B capex outlook.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-08] September 2026 revenue is already reported at NT$511.857B (−0.6% MoM, +54.6% YoY). August, at NT$514.806B, remains the record month. Q3 total was NT$1,494.2B (+17.6% QoQ), above the top of guidance. Months to date in 2026: May 416.98, Jun 442.68, Jul 467.58, Aug 514.81, Sep 511.86 (NT$B). Sept is therefore the known benchmark that October and November must beat. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2026-10-14] The TSMC IR 2026 monthly revenue page (the resolution source) showed only a "Total" row of NT$3,898,727M (+41.1%) in its search snippet. The rendered page did not show the monthly rows. The page was last updated about 5 days earlier, so October is not yet reported. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
- [2026-10-14] Analyst consensus ahead of the Oct 15 earnings call is for Q4 USD revenue to rise about high-single digits to 10% QoQ (World Journal). China Times says up to 10–15%. Q3 guidance was US$44.6–45.8B at 32 NT$/US$. Q3 NT$ revenue came in above that range. These are expectations, not guidance; official Q4 guidance is not out yet. https://www.worldjournal.com/wj/story/121347/9809069 ; https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20261014000517-260121
- [2026-10-08] Taiwan analysts expect October to rebound. They cite Apple new-device shipments and the consumer-electronics peak season. They attribute September's small dip to customer shipment timing, not weaker demand. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2025-11-10] Base rate, last year: October 2025 was NT$367.47B (+11.0% MoM, a then-record). November 2025 was NT$343.61B (−6.5% MoM). So October beat both September and November. https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3267 ; https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3275
- [2024-11-08] October 2024 was NT$314.24B, +24.8% over September 2024 (NT$251.87B). October was again the top of the Sep–Nov set. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617924000122/tsm-revenue20241108.htm
- [2023-11-10] October 2023 was NT$243.2B, +34.8% MoM and a record. Analysts then expected Nov and Dec to fall below October. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202311100124.aspx
- [2021-11-11] Counter-example: in 2021, October (NT$134.5B) was down 11.9% from September (NT$152.7B, a record) because of component shortages. September was the highest of the three months that year. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20211111000933-261507
- [2020-11-10] Counter-example: in 2020, October was NT$119.3B, −6.5% from a September inflated by rush shipments to Huawei. September was the highest of the three. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4540876
- [2016-11-10] In 2016, October (NT$91.1B) was +1.5% over September. It stayed below the August record. Analysts expected Nov/Dec to soften. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20161110003891-260511
- Base-rate tally from the cases I found: October was the top of Sep/Oct/Nov in 2016, 2023, 2024 and 2025, and September was the top in 2020 and 2021. I found no case where November was the top. I did not audit every year, and I did not collect November 2021, 2022 or 2023 data.
- [2026-10-14] Market context: Taiwan stocks fell more than 1,200 points intraday on Oct 13. Reports cited weak US stocks and Apple reducing orders. A fund manager still expects a positive October–November. https://udn.com/news/story/7251/9811402

BOTTOM LINE: Historically the winner is usually October, with September the winner when it is inflated by pull-ins or October is hit by supply problems; November has not won in the cases I found, because it is seasonally softer. For 2026 the key threshold is September's NT$511.86B (August's NT$514.81B is the record), and expected Q4 growth of about 10% QoQ points to October (or possibly November) topping September. The Oct 15 Q4 guidance and the exchange-rate assumption are the main swing factors.

NOT FOUND: Official Q4 2026 guidance (released Oct 15, after the question opened). October and November 2026 actuals. Any betting-market odds or formal polls on this question. Rendered monthly rows from the TSMC IR page. Any analyst per-month forecast for October or November 2026.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-12] Apple's reported iPhone 18 Pro cuts are the main downside risk to October. Morgan Stanley's Oct 8 note (fetched) says Apple's October component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were cut by at least 15%. The same note says it had not seen order or capacity cuts at TSMC or Hon Hai as of Oct 11. It keeps its Dec-quarter iPhone build at 76M units. The Nikkei report (Oct 9) puts the cut at 15–20%. Apple has not confirmed it. This offsets the Taiwan analysts' "Apple shipments lift October" argument (Oct 8). https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34502
- [2026-10-12] TSMC's long order visibility means iPhone-related wafer revenue is probably already locked for Q4. Morgan Stanley says Apple was trying to pull some 2nm wafer orders forward into Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. Pull-ins would help October or November, not hurt them. The risk is mainly to 2027. The same fetched page says that if the trend continues, "production faces increasing downward risk in Q3 2027 and beyond". https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34502
- [2026-10-14] The market sentiment shock of Oct 13 partly reversed. CTEE headlines for Oct 14 say TSMC's share price rose NT$45 and the Taiwan index rebounded nearly 600 points. This is price action, not revenue. It suggests investors are not treating the Apple cut as a TSMC revenue event. https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20251110701155-430503
- [2025-11-10] The Oct 15 guidance is the best predictor of the shape of Q4, and last year shows how to read it. After the Q3 2025 call, TSMC guided Q4 at US$32.2–33.4B at NT$30.6. October 2025 (NT$367.47B) was already 36.6% of the NT$-equivalent Q4 guidance (fetched). That meant Nov and Dec averaged below October. The same arithmetic applies in 2026. Divide the Q4 NT$ guidance midpoint by 3, then compare with September's NT$511.9B. If October exceeds one-third of the guide, November and December are probably lower, so October wins. https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20251110701155-430503
- [2024-11-08] When Q4 guidance implies a slowdown after October, October has won. Q4 2024 guidance was US$26.1–26.9B at NT$32, equal to NT$835–861B. October 2024 (NT$314.2B) alone was about 37% of that, so cnyes concluded Nov and Dec would fall back (fetched via search). November has not been the Sep–Nov peak in any 2016–2025 case my colleagues or I found. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5770275
- [2021-11-11] Counter-pattern: a weak October can precede a stronger Nov and Dec. In 2021 October fell 11.9% on shortages. Q4 guidance of NT$431.2–439.6B then implied Nov and Dec above October. Analysts said both months would beat October, but September still topped the three-month set. A 2026 repeat needs a supply or shipment-timing dip in October, plus a Q4 guide high enough that November rises above NT$511.9B. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4767056
- [2026-10-15, upcoming] The exchange-rate assumption in the Q4 guide matters for the NT$ ranking. Q3 guidance used NT$32 per US$ (July). A different Q4 rate shifts every month's NT$ revenue. The resolution page reports NT$, so monthly translation, not USD demand, decides the ranking. Q4 guidance will not itself fix the monthly split. TSMC does not publish monthly guidance. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000451/a2q26e_withguidancexfinal.htm
- [2026-10-12] Capacity supply rises through Q4. TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is estimated at 120–140k wafers in 2026 (TrendForce, June). The estimated demand-supply gap is narrowing from about 20% to about 10% by end-2026. Ramping capacity is a steady driver that favours later months, which supports November over September. Seasonal Apple and consumer shipments favour October. These two drivers pull in different directions. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/06/15/news-tsmc-cowos-supply-demand-gap-reportedly-seen-narrowing-from-20-to-10-by-end-2026-as-capacity-expands/
- [2026-10-08] September fell 0.6% from August, and analysts blamed customer shipment timing (Storm Media). If shipments slipped from September into October, October has a catch-up boost. This is an analyst explanation, not a TSMC statement. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2026-10-14] Analysts' Q4 expectation versus the hurdle. Morgan Stanley and BofA expect Q4 up 10–15% q/q (Admirals, TipRanks, per colleagues). My arithmetic: Q3 was NT$1,494B, so a 10% rise gives about NT$1,643B, or about NT$548B a month. That is about 7% above September. Even a flat Q4 would average only about NT$498B, below September. A Q4 guide that is merely flat to low-single-digit growth would put September back in contention. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview
- [Timing] The monthly rows for October and November are published around Nov 10 and Dec 10, before the Dec 11 resolution. I did not find a TSMC statement confirming the dates. The sequence for the outcome: (1) Q4 guidance on Oct 15 sets the quarterly NT$ total. (2) October is reported around Nov 10 and shows whether it beats NT$511.9B. (3) November is reported around Dec 10 and shows whether it beats both. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q3

BOTTOM LINE: The result depends on the Oct 15 Q4 NT$ guide and on whether October holds up despite the Apple order-cut reports. The usual pattern is that October is the Q4 peak when the guide implies a taper afterwards. September wins only if the guide is flat or October slips. November wins only if October is weak, the guide is strong, and capacity ramps.

NOT FOUND: Q4 2026 guidance and the exchange-rate assumption (not released before Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 revenue figure. A per-month analyst estimate for October versus November. The rendered TSMC monthly-revenue page (blocked).

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-08] Confirmed, from TSMC's monthly reports as tabulated by Business Insider Taiwan and Storm Media. 2026 monthly revenue was Jul NT$467.58B, Aug NT$514.81B (record), Sep NT$511.86B (-0.6% m/m, +54.6% y/y). Q3 totalled NT$1,494.2B. September is already reported, so it is the baseline to beat. https://www.businessinsider.tw/article/8047
- [2026-10-12] Admirals Markets cites the same monthly series. It also says analysts had expected September at only NT$444.8–483.2B, so the actual figure was about 5.9% above the top of that range. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview
- [2026-10-08] Taiwan analysts cited by Yahoo/Storm attribute the September dip to customer shipment timing. They expect October to strengthen as Apple orders ship and the consumer-electronics peak season starts. They say the open question is whether Q4 holds above NT$500B a month. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%8F%B0%E7%A9%8D%E9%9B%BB9%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B65118%E5%84%84%E5%85%83%E5%AE%88%E4%BD%8F5000%E5%84%84%E5%A4%A7%E9%97%9C-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E5%AD%A3%E8%A1%9D1-49%E5%85%86%E5%85%83%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A%E8%B2%A1%E6%B8%AC%E9%AB%98%E6%A8%99-10%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B6%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E5%86%8D%E8%BD%89%E5%BC%B7-075925103.html
- [2026-10-06 to 2026-10-12] Morgan Stanley expects Q4 2026 revenue up 10–15% q/q. Admirals calculates that as about US$51.4–53.7B, against Q3 at about US$46.7B. BofA (Haas Liu, ranked most accurate on TSM over three months by TipRanks) also expects Q4 up 10–15% q/q. A Q4 about 10–15% above Q3 implies a quarterly total of roughly NT$1.64–1.72T, or about NT$550–570B a month on average, which is above September's NT$512B. This is my arithmetic, not a stated forecast. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview and https://www.tipranks.com/news/tsmc-q3-earnings-on-october-15-analysts-see-95-upside-in-tsm-stock
- [2026-07-16] Company Q3 guidance was US$44.6–45.8B at NT$32 per US$. Actual Q3 beat the top of that range by about 2%. Full-year 2026 growth guidance was "slightly above 40%" in USD terms. The Q4 guide has not been issued yet. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000451/a2q26e_withguidancexfinal.htm
- [2026-10-15, upcoming] TSMC's Q3 earnings call is at 14:00 Taipei time on 15 October, after the question opens. It will give Q4 USD guidance and an exchange-rate assumption, which sets a floor and ceiling for the quarterly NT$ total. Morgan Stanley's Charlie Chan also expects full-year growth to be raised to the low-to-mid 40% range. https://investinglive.com/stocks/preview-tsmc-tipped-for-sixth-straight-record-quarter-with-profit-seen-up-65-on-ai-demand/
- [Historical seasonality, TSMC data via Taiwan media] October 2025 was NT$367.5B, +11.0% m/m over September. October 2024 was NT$314.2B, +24.8% m/m. October 2021 was -11.9% m/m, which Taiwan analysts blamed on shortages and delayed deliveries. October therefore often rises, but a dip is possible. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449 and https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4767056
- [Historical, 2025] After the Q3 2025 call, analysts calculated that Nov+Dec 2025 averaged below October, because guidance implied Q4 down 1% q/q at the midpoint. Monthly shape inside a quarter is guided by the quarterly guide, so the October guide matters for the Oct-versus-Nov ranking. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449
- [2026-10-12/13] Sentiment risk: the OpenAI revenue report on 8 October led to a 3.4% chip-sector fall and a TSM ADR drop. Taiwan's index fell more than 1,200 points intraday on 13 October on reports of Apple order cuts (UDN, per the already-retrieved summary). TSMC's options-implied move for the earnings reaction is about ±4.3%. These are equity-market signals, not monthly-revenue forecasts. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/tsmc-earnings-q3-2026-preview
- [2026-10-14] Consensus for Q3: revenue US$45.54B, EPS US$4.43 (TipRanks). Q3 revenue is already known and beat the consensus. https://www.tipranks.com/news/tsmc-q3-earnings-on-october-15-analysts-see-95-upside-in-tsm-stock
- [2026-10-14] Prediction markets: I found no Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus market on TSMC monthly revenue. The search returned only general volume and fee articles. https://www.theblock.co/data/decentralized-finance/prediction-markets/polymarket-and-kalshi-volume-monthly
- [2026-10-14] I could not open TSMC's official monthly-revenue page (HTTP 403). The monthly figures above come from TSMC's reports as relayed by secondary sources, and TSMC's own press release for September is cited by Admirals as https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

BOTTOM LINE: No source I found gives a month-by-month forecast for October–November. Analyst Q4 expectations (+10–15% q/q from Morgan Stanley and BofA) and Taiwan commentary on Apple shipments both imply Q4 monthly revenue above September's NT$511.9B, so September looks unlikely to be the highest of the three. Whether October or November is higher is undetermined, and TSMC's Q4 guidance on 15 October is the key near-term data point.

NOT FOUND: any prediction-market or Metaculus question on this; any analyst's explicit October versus November monthly estimate; TSMC's official page, which blocked access; Q4 2026 guidance, which was not yet published.

### FAVORITE CASE
**Leader on this dimension: October 2026.** September is fixed at NT$511.86B, so October or November has to beat it. October is the likelier of the two, from seasonal shape and from where Q4 consensus sits. This is an inference from precedent and arithmetic. No source gives an October or November 2026 figure.

- [2026-10-14] The TSMC monthly-revenue page still shows only the cumulative total (NT$3,898,727M, +41.1%) in its search snippet. No October row exists yet. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
- [2026-10-08] Storm Media (fetched) lists the 2026 monthly run as May 416.98, Jun 442.68, Jul 467.58, Aug 514.81 and Sep 511.86 (NT$B). It says the string of four straight record months ended in September. Analysts attribute the 0.6% dip to customer shipment timing, not demand. They expect Apple-related shipments and the consumer-electronics peak season to lift October, and they frame the open question as whether Q4 holds above NT$500B a month. https://www.storm.mg/article/11170882
- [2026-10-14] **Seasonal shape.** Through Q3 2026 the quarterly guidance has been beaten every time, and TSMC's own prior-quarter guides have come with Oct-heavy months. In 2024, October was NT$314.24B, about 36% of Q4 (NT$868.46B). November then fell 12.2% to NT$276.06B, and December was NT$278.16B. October 2024 was the top of the Sep–Nov set. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20241210PD219/tsmc-revenue-market-2024-demand.html ; https://www.macdailynews.com/2025/01/10/major-apple-supplier-tsmcs-revenue-handily-beats-estimates/
- [2025-11-10] October 2025 was NT$367.47B, about 35.1% of Q4 2025 (NT$1,046.09B). Q4 2025 guidance had implied a roughly 1% q/q decline at the midpoint. Taiwan's CNA and Economic Daily News therefore projected Nov–Dec at an average of only NT$309–327B, below October. November 2025 did come in at NT$343.6B, below October. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449 ; https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20251110701155-430503
- [2026-10-14] **Arithmetic: why September likely loses.** Two Oct share assumptions are used below. The first is Oct at about 35% of Q4 (the 2024 and 2025 pattern). The second is Nov at about 32% of Q4 (2024 and 2025 were 31.8% and 32.8%).
  - If Q4 NT$ revenue were merely flat on Q3 (NT$1,494B), October at 35% would be about NT$523B, already above September.
  - At the +10% q/q consensus (about NT$1.64T at roughly NT$32 per US$), October at 35% would be about NT$575B.
  - November at 32% of NT$1.64T would be about NT$525B. That is above September, but below the October estimate on the same shares.
  - For November to beat October, Nov would need a share above Oct's. That has not happened in the years I checked.
  - These are my calculations, not published forecasts. They also depend on the NT$/US$ rate: the Oct 14 UDN market ticker showed about NT$32.1, near the Q3 assumption of 32. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449
- [2026-10-12] **Q4 weighting is the key swing.** The shape of Q4 within the quarter is signalled by the Oct 15 guidance, which was not yet public. TSMC's Q4 2024 guide of US$26.1–26.9B (+11–14% q/q) preceded a front-loaded October. The Q4 2026 consensus (+10–15% q/q, already cited by colleagues) is similar in magnitude. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20241210PD219/tsmc-revenue-market-2024-demand.html
- [2026-10-09] Q3 2026 revenue of NT$1.49T beat the LSEG SmartEstimate (NT$1.46T, 19 analysts) and the company's own guidance. That is a pattern of upside surprises into Q4. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2026/10/09/2003865635 ; https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/10/08/news-tsmc-q3-revenue-beats-forecasts-at-record-nt1-49-trillion-net-profit-seen-surging-64/
- [2021-11-10] **Counter-case for September.** In 2021, October fell 11.9% from September (NT$134.5B vs NT$152.7B) because of component shortages and delayed deliveries. Analysts then expected Nov–Dec to exceed October. In that year Sep was the top month and Nov was next. https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20211111000728-260202 ; https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20211111000933-261507
- [2020-11-10] In 2020, October (NT$119.3B) fell 6.5% from a September inflated by rush Huawei shipments. September was the top month. 2026's September has no comparable known rush (it dipped from August), which weakens this analogue. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4540876
- [2016-11-10] In 2016, October was +1.5% over September, so the Oct > Sep pattern also held in a mild year. It remained below the August record, but the question is only about Sep/Oct/Nov. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20161110003891-260410
- [2022-12-09] November can be strong when iPhone and Qualcomm high-end phone orders peak. November 2022 was NT$222.71B (+50.2% y/y), when Counterpoint credited the A16 for most of the seasonal strength. This is a possible November path, but I did not retrieve the Oct 2022 figure to compare. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/09/tsmc-revenue-jumps-50percent-in-november-helped-by-apple-iphone-orders.html
- [2026-10-13] Downside risk to October: UDN reported Apple reducing orders and a Taiwan index drop of more than 1,200 points intraday. Colleagues already covered this as equity sentiment. I found nothing tying it to October wafer shipments.
- [2026-12-10] Schedule: TSMC's financial calendar page lists "TSMC Monthly Sales – November 2026" and past November releases on about Dec 8–10. That leaves the November figure due before the Dec 11 resolution. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/financial-calendar

BOTTOM LINE: October is the favourite, with a Q4 that is merely flat on Q3 already enough for it to beat September at its historical ~35% share of the quarter. November is the second most likely winner, requiring Q4 near or above +10% q/q and an unusual share. September wins only if October is hit by a supply or shipment-timing problem, as in 2020–21.

NOT FOUND: Q4 2026 guidance and exchange-rate assumption (Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 figure. Any analyst's explicit October vs November estimate. Rendered monthly rows from the official TSMC page. A confirmed primary source for the Oct 2022 figure. The pages for the TSMC calendar and the Digitimes article both timed out when fetched directly, so those facts rest on search snippets.

### UPSET CASE
Upset case: the best case against the expected winner (October, per colleagues) is that September stays the top month. November is the weaker option. The evidence for either upset is thin.

- [2026-10-14] TSMC's financial calendar, fetched from the IR site, schedules the October 2026 sales release for Nov 10 and the November release for Dec 10. Both fall before the Dec 11 resolution, but the Dec 10 release leaves one day of slack. Last year's 2025 calendar also used Nov 10 and Dec 10, and TSMC has postponed a release before (June 2026 sales moved to Jul 13 because of a typhoon day-off). A delay would not change the ranking unless the November figure slipped past Dec 11. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/financial-calendar
- [2026-10-13] The NT$ fell more than 1% against the US$ to 32.237, a two-month low (GuruFocus, citing Bloomberg), with the Taiwan market down about 2% on foreign selling above NT$100B. The central bank's 2026/10/08 close was 31.875, against about 31.5 in early September. A weaker NT$ raises NT$ revenue, which favours Oct/Nov over September. It is not an upset argument. A TWD rebound in Nov would work the other way. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9120507/foreign-selling-pressure-hits-taiwan-stocks-tsmc-tsm-declines ; https://www.cbc.gov.tw/en/lp-700-2.html
- [2026-10-08] The bar September sets is low. Taiwan analysts attribute the 0.6% dip from August to customer shipment timing, and they expect Apple-related shipments to lift October. If the pushed-out shipments land in October, that supports October, not September. If the Apple order-cut reports from Oct 13 prove true, this is the upset mechanism: October stays at or below about NT$512B and September wins. That would repeat 2020 and 2021, when September was the top month. Those cases came from rush shipments or shortages, and neither is evident now. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E5%8F%B0%E7%A9%8D%E9%9B%BB9%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B65118%E5%84%84%E5%85%83%E5%AE%88%E4%BD%8F5000%E5%84%84%E5%A4%A7%E9%97%9C-%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E5%AD%A3%E8%A1%9D1-49%E5%85%86%E5%85%83%E8%B6%85%E8%B6%8A%E8%B2%A1%E6%B8%AC%E9%AB%98%E6%A8%99-10%E6%9C%88%E7%87%9F%E6%94%B6%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E5%86%8D%E8%BD%89%E5%BC%B7-075925103.html
- [2025-11-10] The shape within a quarter follows guidance. For Q4 2025, October came in at NT$3,674.7B, +11% on September. Analysts then computed that Nov–Dec would average only NT$309–327B, about 11–16% below October, from guidance of Q4 -1% q/q. October beat November by that margin even in a growth year. A November win therefore needs guidance implying a back-loaded quarter. https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/9129449
- [2024-11-08] Taiwan press read the Q4 2024 guidance (US$26.1–26.9B at 32 NT$/US$, NT$835–861B) against October's NT$314B and concluded Nov/Dec would fall back. October led again that year. This points to Oct > Nov as the usual outcome. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/5770275
- [2016-11-10] Counter-case for November: in 2016, TSMC's November revenue of NT$93.0B rose 2.1% on October's NT$91.1B. Analysts credited Apple A10 and Nvidia pull. Note that Q4 2016 guidance was for a 0.9–2.1% decline, yet November still beat October. A November win is not unheard of. It has been rare in the 2020–2025 cases my colleagues and I found. https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20161210000032-260202 ; https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20161111700011-439901
- [2017-11-11] In 2017, October reached a record NT$94.5B, +6.7% m/m. Analysts tied it to Apple iPhone X wafer shipments, which peaked from October. This is another year with an Apple-driven October peak. https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20171111700071-439901
- [2026-07-16] Capacity limits could produce a flat plateau. CoWoS is sold out, and TrendForce-cited reports (2026-06-15) put the supply gap at about 20% now, narrowing to about 10% by end-2026. Monthly CoWoS capacity is ramping toward 120–140k wafers. Capacity ramps through Q4, which favours later months (Nov/Dec) over October on the AI side. That is the strongest evidence-based route to a November win. It is offset by the usual Apple/consumer seasonality, which favours October. https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/06/15/news-tsmc-cowos-supply-demand-gap-reportedly-seen-narrowing-from-20-to-10-by-end-2026-as-capacity-expands/
- [2026-10-12] Equity-market signals: TSM ADR closed at US$453.31 on Oct 9, about 7% below its Oct 5 high near US$487. The options-implied earnings move is ±4.3%. These reflect fear about memory and AI sentiment, not shipments. https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/tsmc-stock-price-slips-before-q3-report-october-12-2026/

BOTTOM LINE: The best upset case is September (NT$511.86B) staying on top if October shipments slip or Apple orders are cut. It would need October to come in below September, which happened in 2020 and 2021 but has few signs now. November has beaten October only in older years (e.g. 2016), and rarely recently. It becomes plausible only if the Q4 guide implies a back-loaded quarter, for example from a CoWoS ramp.

NOT FOUND: Q4 2026 guidance and its exchange-rate assumption (due Oct 15). Any October or November 2026 figure. Any analyst estimate of the monthly split. Primary confirmation of the Apple order-cut report. The rendered monthly rows on the TSMC IR page.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources show the outcome already decided as of today? If so, which option and by which source.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market for these options, treat its prices as a strong prior and name the specific evidence it lacks whenever you move away from it. A RELATED market is context only. If no market is listed, there is none — do not assume one.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "September 2026": <prob>,
        "October 2026": <prob>,
        "November 2026": <prob>
  },
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would change your leading option or move it by 10+ points if false; [] if none>"]
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).