How many US circuit court judges will be confirmed during November 2026?

- [2026-10-13] Three circuit nominees are pending and no circuit judge has been confirmed since 2026-07-23. The Senate Judiciary Committee's nominations page shows Domenico (10th Cir.) and St. John (5th Cir.) on the Executive Calendar, at Nos. 901 and 944. Rudofsky (8th Cir.) had a hearing on 2026-09-30 and has not been reported out. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law said Domenico was the only one of three pending appellate picks likely to be confirmed before the October recess. He was not confirmed. Bloomberg Law framed the Senate as squeezed by the midterms (Nov. 3), and noted that the pace of judicial confirmations had accelerated in June and July. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-09-30] Rudofsky's hearing was held on 2026-09-30, alongside district nominees Long, Mansfield and Osete. Nominations for him and the district nominees were received 2026-09-14. A committee vote typically follows 1–3 weeks after a hearing, and I found no markup date. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/committee-activity/hearings/nominations-09-30-2026
- [2026-09-24] The Judiciary Committee placed St. John on the Executive Calendar (No. 944). A Judiciary Committee release reported her 12-10 vote. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-advances-13-judicial-and-executive-nominees
- [2026-07-23] Domenico was reported 12-10 on 2026-07-23. He is still on the calendar (No. 901) after the Senate processed other district nominees in September. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-advances-circuit-judge-district-judge-and-us-attorney
- [2026-10-01] The Senate adjourned on 2026-09-30 or 2026-10-01 until after the election. It is scheduled to return the week of Nov. 9. UPI/The Hill report only 8 session days in November and 14 in December. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2026/10/01/senate-adjourns-november/8331790859878
- [2025-11-19] The original Senate calendar had the Senate back for two days the week of Nov. 9, before Veterans Day on Nov. 11. The Hill reports a Thanksgiving recess week (Thanksgiving is Nov. 26). That leaves roughly Nov. 9–20 as the realistic window for November floor votes. https://rollcall.com/2025/11/19/senate-calendar-2026-midterm-election/
- [2026-10-02] Pioneer Public Affairs reports that Thune "reportedly" set a Nov. 20 deadline for committees to process nominations. That would set up a large en bloc nominations package in the lame duck. This is a report, not confirmed, and en bloc packages have covered executive nominees. The August en bloc package had 74 nominations (S.Res.817). I did not verify whether judges can be included. https://pioneerpublicaffairs.substack.com/p/the-eye-of-the-storm
- [2026-10-01] The lame-duck agenda is crowded: government funding (a CR runs through Dec. 11), permitting reform, the farm bill, the NDAA, FISA, a possible budget resolution and reconciliation, and CRA votes. Thune also listed "another nominations package" as a priority. https://www.vinylinfo.org/news/legislative-update-senate-adjourns-until-after-midterm-elections/
- [2026-07-22] Recent circuit confirmations show that individual circuit votes are feasible with 51-46-type cloture margins. Flowers (6th Cir.) was confirmed 49-46 on 2026-07-22. Traynor (8th Cir.) was confirmed 48-47. Schwartz (2nd Cir.) was confirmed 50-45 on 2026-07-14. Smith (8th Cir.) was confirmed on 2026-06-15. https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_confc.htm
- [2026-10-13] The uscourts.gov confirmation listing, fetched today, shows "Total Confirmations: 57". It is a table of Article III confirmations in the 119th Congress, and the circuit-only count is not isolated in the fetched text. No November 2026 entries can exist yet. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing
- [2026-10-13] No Senate floor action is scheduled between now and Nov. 9, so the October count is zero. Any November confirmation would come from Domenico and St. John (both floor-ready) or Rudofsky (if the committee reports him in time). The practical maximum is therefore 3. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial

BOTTOM LINE: Two floor-ready circuit nominees (Domenico, St. John) and one more in committee (Rudofsky) could be confirmed only in the roughly two-week window of Nov. 9–20, in a lame duck with a crowded agenda. I found no announced floor schedule for these nominees, and the counted outcome is capped at about 3.

NOT FOUND: a published Senate floor schedule or cloture filings for Domenico or St. John for November. A Judiciary Committee markup date for Rudofsky. Confirmation that judicial nominees can ride in the reported en bloc package. Any circuit vacancies or nominations beyond these three (not checked in the vacancy table).

- [2026-10-09] The Senate is out until Nov. 9. It holds only pro forma sessions with no business through Nov. 5, and returns for business Monday, Nov. 9 at 3:00 pm. Its first order of business is the permitting-reform vehicle, H.R.2347. https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/
- [2026-10-01] The Senate adjourned for the midterms after confirming Keith Sonderling as Labor Secretary. The Hill said the lame-duck agenda is crowded (budget resolution/reconciliation, CRA resolutions, NDAA, FISA, funding). It reported Republicans are skeptical much will get done. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6121941-senate-adjourns-midterm-campaigns/
- [2026-07-23] Pending circuit nominees: Domenico (10th Cir.) was reported 12-10 on Jul 23. A Judiciary Committee "confirmed" listing shows him confirmed 51-47, but the page's own entries conflict about his status. Bloomberg Law (Sept) called him the one pending appellate pick likely to be confirmed before the recess, so he is probably already confirmed and not a November candidate. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/confirmed/?pagenum_rs=2
- [2026-09-30] Anna St. John (5th Cir., Louisiana) was reported 12-10 on Sept 24 and was on the Executive Calendar (No. 944) as of the committee's Sept 30 listing. I found no sign she was confirmed before the recess, so she is the likeliest circuit nominee for a November floor vote. Lee Rudofsky (8th Cir., Arkansas) had his hearing Sept 30. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-30] Committee rules require a one-week holdover after a hearing before a vote. Rudofsky's earliest committee vote is therefore after Oct 7. A committee vote would likely come in mid-November, once the Senate is back. https://legis1.com/news/senate-judiciary-committee-nominees-will-vote-on
- [2026-09-08] Ballsandstrikes' timetable (written before the Sept 30 hearing) shows nominees heard Sept 16 becoming floor-eligible Nov 30 and those heard Sept 30 on Dec 7. Rudofsky's floor timing is therefore most likely December, not November. The Senate is scheduled to end the year around Dec 18, with a Thanksgiving recess. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law said the Senate is making a final pre-midterm push on judges. Further-back nominees fall into the post-election calendar. It said lame-duck confirmations may be harder because of absences and competing priorities. Urgency would rise if Democrats win the Senate. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-10-13] The uscourts.gov confirmation listing shows 57 total Article III confirmations in the second term. Bloomberg reported 53 as of early August, and Wikipedia (undated) lists 3 circuit nominations awaiting Senate action and no current circuit vacancies. I did not isolate the 2026 circuit count from the page. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing
- [2026-08-11] Base rate: the Senate confirmed three appeals judges in July 2026 alone, and six circuit judges in all of 2025. Circuit vacancies have been scarce. Few GOP-appointed circuit judges have taken senior status, though several announced in 2026. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-senate-recess-put-squeeze-on-trump-judicial-nominees
- [2026-10-05] Demand Justice's tracker showed no scheduled confirmations or cloture votes for the week of Oct 5, with the Senate on recess until 11/9. https://demandjustice.org/senate-vote-tracker/
- [Historical] In past midterm lame ducks the Senate cleared the judicial calendar in the first weeks back. In Nov 2010 it was expected to clear 18 pending nominees, including one circuit nominee. Democrats pushed hard in the 2022 and 2024 lame ducks. https://www.foxnews.com/story/republicans-seek-judicial-confirmations.print

BOTTOM LINE: The only Senate session days in November are Nov 9 onward, about three weeks minus the Thanksgiving week, and Thune's floor time is contested. St. John (on the calendar, party-line 12-10) is the only circuit nominee clearly floor-ready. Rudofsky's timing points to December, so the outside view points to a low count, plausibly 0 or 1, with 2 unlikely.

NOT FOUND: Confirmation of the Domenico vote date and whether St. John was confirmed before the Oct 1 recess. Any prediction-market or expert odds on November circuit confirmations. A Senate floor schedule naming judges for the week of Nov 9. The uscourts.gov 2026 circuit-only count (the page's middle section was truncated).

- [2026-10-13] The Judiciary Committee's own listing, fetched today, shows Domenico (10th Cir.) still at "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar, No. 901". Colmenero (district) was confirmed 50-47 on 9/23, and Mitchell on 9/17. The Senate cleared the district nominees from the same May 12 package and skipped Domenico. This resolves the colleagues' doubt: Domenico is unconfirmed and is a live November candidate. The "confirmed 51-47" line on the committee's confirmed-page snippet conflicts with this and is not supported. Bloomberg's Sept 17 "likely before recess" call did not happen. St. John (5th Cir.) is at No. 944, and Rudofsky is at "Hearings held". https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-10-13] The Senate Daily Press page shows the Senate is adjourned except for pro forma sessions through Nov. 5. It returns Monday Nov. 9 at 3:00 pm with a single vote at 5:30 pm. The pro forma dates are Oct 13, 15, 19, 22, 26, 29, and Nov 2 and 5. No judicial confirmation is possible before Nov 9, and the first vote that evening is probably not a judge. The earlier report said H.R.2347 is the first order of business. https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/
- [2026-10-13] Three circuit-court nominees can plausibly count. Two are on the calendar: Domenico and St. John. One is in committee: Rudofsky, who was nominated 9/14 and heard 9/30. Congress.gov shows the Rudofsky nomination's last action as referral on 9/14. The committee page shows no markup. No other circuit nominee appears on the committee's first page, which is sorted newest first. The ceiling is therefore 3. https://www.congress.gov/nomination/119th-congress/1272/15
- [2026-09-30] Sequence needed for 3 confirmations: the committee must report Rudofsky, which can't happen before the one-week holdover and would need a markup after the Senate returns. Then Thune must file cloture on all three, and each needs a cloture vote plus a confirmation vote. Recent circuit margins were 48-47 to 52-45, so attendance matters. Rudofsky also faces opposition: Blumenthal declared against him, and Durbin attacked his 2022 Voting Rights Act ruling. Legis1 calls the floor timeline "the central open question". https://legis1.com/news/judicial-nominees-senate-panel-grills-four-before
- [2026-09-23] Sequence evidence on how Thune uses floor time: the Senate processed the district nominees from the May 12 batch (Mitchell 9/17, Colmenero 9/23, Byrne 9/15) before the recess, and Domenico, the circuit pick, waited. Circuit nominees are party-line, 12-10 in committee. The Senate has been voting on them one at a time with few absences allowed. Each circuit slot costs more floor time than a district slot. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-25] Louisiana press (The Advocate, around Sept 24) said the full Senate likely wouldn't take up St. John "until next week, at least, and possibly in November". The Senate then left without doing so, with the Labor Secretary vote the last item (per the earlier Oct 1 report). So St. John and Domenico both carried over, with no floor time. https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/national_politics/anna-st-john-trump-nominee-senate-confirmation/article_86d3b4ef-5043-56ee-a7cd-f3854af490a4.html
- [2026-09-14] Balls & Strikes' calendar, a partial snippet, had St. John and Cook (district) reaching the floor Sept 28. Later nominees would have a last hearing on Nov 18 and reach the floor Dec 14, the last scheduled week. That is the basis for Rudofsky's likely December timing. Nothing in the nominees' pipeline requires November action except Domenico and St. John, who are floor-ready now. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-10-06] Bloomberg Law (about Oct 6): Alito said he will stay on the Court. Thune told Punchbowl in July that a lame-duck Supreme Court confirmation "can be done". The Senate majority is "up for grabs" in the Nov. 3 election. Relevance: if Republicans fear losing the Senate, there is an incentive to clear the calendar, and that incentive does not depend on Alito. If they look likely to hold it, urgency falls and the nominees could slip into December or 2027. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-courts-alito-plans-to-stay-even-if-democrats-win-senate
- [2026-09-17] The Bloomberg Law source article has Thune citing "a big but limited opportunity". It quotes Fragoso, a former McConnell counsel, that leadership must manage the load. It also warned that the hearing for Rudofsky depended on the Senate staying in town, which it did. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [Historical] Grassley's 2012 floor statement said the Senate had confirmed judges in a presidential-year lame duck only a few times since 1940 (CRS: 1944, 1980, 2004). Those precedents are for presidential-election years and different contexts. In 2020, the GOP Senate under the same Thune-era leadership confirmed 18 judges in the lame duck, per an ABC summary. Both show that lame-duck clearing is possible when the majority wants it, though the 2020 case had a more comfortable schedule. https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/setting-record-straight-lame-duck-sessions-and-judicial-nominations

BOTTOM LINE: The count in November is bounded by floor time after Nov 9 and Thanksgiving, not by supply. Domenico and St. John are floor-ready and unconfirmed, with Rudofsky a stretch because of committee timing. The outcome therefore hinges on whether Thune spends cloture time on judges, rather than on the executive-nominations package and must-pass items, during Nov 9–20.

NOT FOUND: a post-recess floor schedule or cloture filing naming any judge. A Rudofsky markup date. Any Thune statement setting an order for the November judges. Whether the Senate's November session extends past the week of Nov 16 (the Thanksgiving recess dates are not confirmed on a primary page). The uscourts.gov circuit-only count. Any market or analyst odds.

I found no prediction-market or Metaculus listing for this question, and no analyst has published a number for circuit confirmations in November 2026. The evidence below is what experts and official sources say about the pipeline and calendar.

- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law (the question's source article) says the GOP Senate is making a final push before the midterms. Daniel Domenico (10th Cir.) was the only one of three pending appellate nominees likely to be confirmed before the October campaign recess. Nominees further back in the pipeline "will fall into the post-election" calendar. The article notes that lame-duck confirmations may be harder. The midterm is Nov 3. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-09-24] The Senate Judiciary Committee page shows Anna St. John (5th Cir., Louisiana) was placed on the Executive Calendar (No. 944) on 09/24. Her committee vote was 12-10, per legis1. She is a floor-ready circuit nominee. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-30] The same committee page shows Lee Rudofsky (8th Cir.) had his hearing on 09/30, with "Hearings held" as the last action. He was nominated 09/14. Committee rules require a one-week wait after a hearing before a committee vote. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-30] Chairman Grassley opened the Rudofsky hearing, which the committee site confirms. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/grassley-opens-senate-judiciary-committee-nominations-hearing-for-circuit-and-district-nominees
- [2026-10-07] Legis1 reports Sen. Blumenthal will vote against Rudofsky. It also cites Bloomberg Law's Sept. 17 framing of a final push followed by lame-duck pressure. https://legis1.com/news/judicial-nominees-senate-panel-grills-four-before
- [2026-09-14, via Balls & Strikes, about 34 days old; page blocked, snippet only] Balls & Strikes, a progressive outlet, says none of the August-announced nominees can be confirmed before the midterms. It says that if Democrats win the Senate, Republicans will have only the lame duck. One snippet says those nominees reach the floor around Dec 14, "the last week" of the scheduled session. That date may refer to district nominees, so treat it as unverified. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-08-11] Bloomberg Law reports the Senate cleared nearly all pending nominees before the August recess. It confirmed three appeals court judges in July. Lawmakers returned mid-September for three weeks, then break until after Nov 3. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-senate-recess-put-squeeze-on-trump-judicial-nominees
- [2026-08-12, approximate] Brookings says only 6 nominations were awaiting Senate action at the end of July 2026. It describes a dearth of vacancies, compared with 92 pending in the 2018–2020 period. Few vacancies means a small supply of circuit nominees. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-judicial-appointment-pace-is-unlikely-to-match-his-first-term-record/
- [2026-10-13] The uscourts.gov Confirmation Listing, which is the resolution source, was fetched and showed "Total Confirmations: 57". Any November circuit confirmations would appear there. The page snippet did not show a circuit-only breakdown. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing
- [2026-10-13] The committee page lists the 8th Cir. nominee Traynor as confirmed 48-47 (Vote 208). Domenico's last action there is "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar" (07/23). I could not confirm whether Domenico was confirmed in late September or remains pending. If he is still pending, he is a November candidate. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-10-13] The Senate is out until after Nov 3, per Bloomberg. The Senate's Nov–Dec session length and Thanksgiving week are not confirmed in any source I fetched. Historical comparison: in the 2020 lame duck, the Senate confirmed 13 district judges plus one circuit judge (Barrett's seat). It took them up over several weeks after the election. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bidens-lame-duck-judicial-confirmation-prospects

BOTTOM LINE: Experts describe a thin pipeline, with St. John (floor-ready), possibly Domenico (status unverified), and Rudofsky (post-hearing) as the realistic November circuit candidates. Nobody quantifies the odds, and the sources I found signal heavy lame-duck floor-time pressure. Plausible counts range from 0 up to about 3, and November is likely only part of a session that runs into December.

NOT FOUND: Any Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus market on this question. Any quantified expert forecast. The Domenico confirmation status as of October 13. The Senate's post-election schedule. Rudofsky's committee vote date. The Balls & Strikes full text, which returned 403.

- [2026-10-13] The Senate Daily Press page shows the Senate adjourned except for pro forma sessions. Those run through Thu Nov 5 with no business expected. The next vote is Mon Nov 9 at 5:30 pm. A November count therefore depends on roughly Nov 9–20 (the Thanksgiving week is a separate caveat from colleagues). https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/
- [2026-10-13] A rendered Judiciary Committee nominations page shows PN999-2 (Domenico, 10th Cir.) still "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar. Calendar No. 901". It does not show him confirmed. Colleagues flagged a conflicting "confirmed" listing, and this entry points to him still being pending. If so, he is a November candidate, and Bloomberg's September expectation that he would clear before the recess did not happen. PN1181-7 (St. John) is at Calendar No. 944. PN1181-1 is at No. 945, apparently a non-circuit nominee. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-10-13] The same page lists the recent 2026 confirmations. Their record votes are 50-47 (No. 241), 49-45 (No. 238), 52-45 (No. 233) and 48-47 (No. 208). Every recent contested confirmation passed on a near-party-line vote. Two floor-ready circuit nominees therefore need only floor time and attendance. Absence is the main vote risk, because the margins are thin. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-24] The Baton Rouge Advocate reported St. John's 12-10 committee vote and expected a floor vote "next week, at least, and possibly in November". The Senate did not take her up before it left. That makes November the default slot for her. https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/national_politics/anna-st-john-trump-nominee-senate-confirmation/article_86d3b4ef-5043-56ee-a7cd-f3854af490a4.html
- [2026-03-17] Precedent for St. John: as a district nominee she was confirmed 51-45, with 51 Republicans in favour. Cassidy and Kennedy, her home-state senators, both voted for her. The circuit vote should follow the same party-line pattern, with no home-state GOP defection risk. https://www.kennedy.senate.gov/2026/03/17/2026-3-u-s-senate-confirms-kennedy-backed-louisiana-district-judge-nominee-anna-st-john/
- [2026-06-30, Punchbowl, about 103 days old] Thune said he wanted to confirm "as many as possible before November". He cited chronic lame-duck absences among retiring or defeated senators. He also said a lame-duck confirmation "can be done", a SCOTUS-related remark. This shows leadership wants judges done early. The unfinished circuit nominees are the leftovers, which makes them early lame-duck priorities. It also signals that attendance is the risk. https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/judicial-blitz/
- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law confirmed that Domenico and the Texas district nominee Colmenero were "ripe for votes". It said Rudofsky's hearing would come later in September. It also said GOP urgency rises if Democrats win the Senate. A midterm loss would push the GOP to use every available day in Nov–Dec. Because the week of Nov 9 begins with only one 5:30 pm vote on permitting reform, nominations are the natural filler. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-10-07] Legis1 said Blumenthal opposes Rudofsky and called the floor timeline for the Sept 30 panel "the central open question". Rudofsky has a 2022 ruling that there is no private right of action under VRA §2. Democrats are opposed, and his committee vote is likely party-line 12-10. Rudofsky still needs the committee vote, which has a one-week holdover. His Nov confirmation requires a markup plus floor time within about two weeks, so he is the weak third. https://legis1.com/news/judicial-nominees-senate-panel-grills-four-before
- [2026-10-13] Rudofsky's own status: the committee page shows his last action as "Hearings held". The committee has not reported him. Grassley's Sept 30 statement noted he was a district judge in Arkansas since 2019. In 2019 the committee took 11 weeks from his district hearing to the vote, but that was not a rushed schedule. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/committee-activity/hearings/nominations-09-30-2026

BOTTOM LINE: The leading outcome is most likely 1 or 2. St. John, and Domenico if still pending, are floor-ready with party-line votes. Rudofsky is unlikely to finish in November. The risks are that leadership uses the first lame-duck weeks for permitting reform, funding and a nominations package, and that thin margins create absence risk. That would leave 0. The case for 2 rests on Domenico still being on the calendar.

NOT FOUND: Any Senate cloture filing or floor announcement for Domenico or St. John in November. A Rudofsky markup date. The post-Nov 9 floor schedule. Any market or expert forecast for this question. Whether the committee page's Domenico status is stale. The congress.gov nomination page returned 403.

**Case for an upset: the best alternative to a 0 or 1 leader is exactly 2** (Domenico and St. John both confirmed in Nov. 9–20). A 1 is the next alternative and a 0 is the downside risk. The evidence below is mine, and none of it comes from the colleague reports.

- [2026-10-13] **Domenico is confirmed still pending, which settles the open question in the colleague reports.** The Senate's own "Nominations Confirmed (Civilian)" page lists judicial confirmations in reverse order. Its newest circuit entries are Traynor (7/23), Flowers (7/22), Schwartz (7/14) and Smith (6/15). Domenico and St. John are absent. The only judicial confirmations after July are district judges Byrne (9/15), Mitchell (9/17) and Colmenero (9/23). So two circuit nominees were ripe on the floor at recess. The Judiciary Committee's "confirmed" page still shows Domenico as "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar" (07/23, Calendar No. 901). https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_confc.htm
- [2026-09-17] **Domenico was ripe for a vote in September and still wasn't taken up.** Bloomberg Law said he and Colmenero were ripe for full-Senate votes. Only district judges were processed, which is evidence of scarce floor time. That cuts against an upset. It also means the backlog is now two circuit judges, and each needs only a cloture vote plus a confirmation vote. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-10-12] **Thune's stated priority is to get nominees done before the lame duck, which makes November more likely than the colleagues' base rate implies.** Punchbowl reported in summer that Thune wants as many judges as possible confirmed before November because lame-duck attendance is unreliable. Since the pre-recess push missed Domenico and St. John, they are the obvious first items on return. The Senate returns Nov. 9 with permitting reform as the first business, but a cloture vote on a circuit nominee needs little time. https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/judicial-blitz/
- [2026-07-23] **Circuit nominees can be moved fast when prioritised.** The Senate confirmed three circuit judges in July (Schwartz 7/14, Flowers 7/22, Traynor 7/23). Two were confirmed on consecutive days. Both Domenico (12-10) and St. John (12-10) are party-line nominees, so the 51-vote Republican majority is enough. https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_confc.htm
- [2026-10-13] **Midterm results could raise the urgency.** Bloomberg Law reports polls show the Senate up for grabs. If Democrats win, the Republican majority would have only the lame duck. Bloomberg Law and Balls & Strikes both say there would be more GOP urgency to confirm nominees if Democrats prevail. That favours using the Nov. 9–20 window rather than waiting for December. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-courts-alito-plans-to-stay-even-if-democrats-win-senate
- [2026-09-08] **Rudofsky is the weak third, so 3 is the long-shot upset.** Balls & Strikes' timetable has nominees heard Sept. 30 reaching the floor Dec. 7. Rudofsky's hearing was Sept. 30, so a November confirmation would require breaking the usual sequencing. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-10-01] **A new circuit nominee, Butler, is not a November candidate.** Trump announced Todd Butler for the Fifth Circuit (Southwick's seat) on 10/1. He drew early conservative scrutiny on 10/13. He has not had a hearing and would be eighth Trump appointee on the court. His confirmation falls in December at the earliest. Southwick's seat only opens on confirmation of a successor, which is a separate matter from the November count. https://afj.org/nominee/todd-butler/
- [2026-10-13] **Butler is a risk to the leader only through an additional circuit seat.** Bloomberg Law's 10/13 piece says Butler "would be the president's eighth appointee if he and another pending nominee are confirmed". That wording counts Butler and one other pending nominee, which suggests the Fifth Circuit has only one other pending pick (St. John). It adds no extra November supply. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/trump-fifth-circuit-pick-met-with-early-conservative-scrutiny
- [2026-10-13] **The downside risk for the upset case is the single-seat vacancy supply and crowded agenda.** The colleague reports show a CR to Dec. 11, NDAA, FISA and permitting reform. There are also only about 8 session days in November. The Domenico bypass in September shows that Thune ranks district judges and executive packages ahead of a contested circuit vote. The 2020 lame duck produced only one circuit confirmation. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bidens-lame-duck-judicial-confirmation-prospects/

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest upset case is an outcome of 2 (Domenico and St. John), because both are floor-ready, party-line and were left behind only by recess timing, not by any obstacle. A 1 or 0 is still plausible if leadership spends Nov. 9–20 on permitting reform and funding. A 3 needs Rudofsky to skip the normal calendar.

NOT FOUND: Any cloture filing, Thune floor statement or schedule naming Domenico or St. John for the week of Nov. 9. A Rudofsky markup date. Whether judges can be included in a lame-duck en bloc package. Any odds from a market or analyst. I found no circuit nominee beyond Domenico, St. John, Rudofsky and Butler.

14 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 9 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-13] Spain Approves 700 New Judicial and Prosecutor Posts Amid Electoral Advance
20 minutos — https://www.20minutos.es/nacional/directo-rueda-prensa-posterior-consejo-ministros-que-aprueba-700-nuevas-plazas-jueces-fiscales_7047945_0.html
  - On October 13, 2026, the Spanish Council of Ministers, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, approved the creation of 700 new judicial and prosecutorial positions via two emergency decree-laws, representing a 7.8% increase in the judicial staff and a 6.6% increase in the public prosecutor's office, according to Ministry of Justice sources.
  - The new roles are distributed as 500 judges (172 civil, 109 social, 69 criminal, plus 87 mixed organs, 42 territorial, 11 for violence against women, 6 for violence against children, 8 new court presidencies, and 4 in the National Court) and 200 prosecutors.
  - Geographically, Andalusia and Catalonia will receive the most new judicial posts (94 each), followed by Madrid (74) and the Valencian Community (53), while Catalonia will receive 47 new prosecutor positions, Andalusia 31, and Madrid 26.
  - The government aims to fill these positions in 2027, despite the electoral advance to November 29, 2026, though the texts must first pass through the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) before final approval.
  - Additionally, the Council approved a real decree allocating 4.8 million euros in direct subsidies to agro-food and fishing entities to support strategic activities including food security, fishery resource protection, innovation, aquaculture commercialization, and environmental research.

[2026-10-13] Election Scholar Justin Levitt Predicts Normal November 2026 Midterms Despite Fears of Chaos (opinion)
Idaho Press — https://www.idahopress.com/opinion/conversation/i-ve-been-studying-election-integrity-for-26-years-and-here-s-why-i-expect/article_7b789816-7ece-5039-964c-93dd30833729.html
  - In an interview with The Conversation's Naomi Schalit, Justin Levitt, a Professor of Law at Loyola Law School Los Angeles and election law scholar with 26 years of study, argues that widespread election chaos in the November 2026 U.S. midterms is 'extremely unlikely' despite growing public anxiety.
  - Levitt attributes this confidence to the fact that 'almost 100,000 polling places' across the country have 'never been as prepared' as they are now, with officials creating plans for scenarios involving intimidation or ballot seizure.
  - Regarding voter intimidation, Levitt notes that while 'keyboard warriors' exist online, it is 'harder to recruit a group of people to show up and look for fraud' or 'actively intimidate voters' due to the risk of jail or removal.
  - He predicts that if federal interference occurs, it will likely be limited to 'a dozen goons' at 'a suburban polling place' filmed for social media to create a viral scare, rather than a nationwide operation.
  - On the issue of ballot seizure, Levitt distinguishes past incidents—'6 years old' ballots in Fulton County, Georgia, and a '2026 seizure for the 2025 elections' in Riverside, California—from the current situation, noting that seizing ballots while results are pending is 'flatly unconstitutional.' He cites a recent California Supreme Court ruling that declared such seizures 'absolutely, flatly illegal' and notes that judges rarely approve warrants for election materials while results are pending.
  - Levitt concludes that while election officials are 'stressed out, underpaid, and overworked,' the system has 'belts and suspenders' redundancy, and the election 'depends on us' rather than the president.

[2026-10-12] Egan and Ellis to Contest Boone County Circuit Judge Seat
Columbia Missourian — https://www.columbiamissourian.com/news/elections/boone-county/circuit-judge-race-focuses-on-juvenile-criminal-cases/article_d637c10a-3d79-4304-95c5-bad6e264ba37.html
  - In the November 3, 2026, general election for Boone County voters, a contested race for the Division IX associate circuit judge position is set to feature Republican James Egan facing off against Democrat Bill Ellis.
  - The candidates are running to replace Tracy Gonzalez, who is retiring from the position she has held since her election in 2018.
  - This election is noted as a rare contested judicial race, as many other judicial positions remain uncontested.

[2026-10-12] Panel Warns of Future ATF Reversals Following Third Circuit Victory
Show Archives – Armed American Radio | — https://media.blubrry.com/armed_american_radio/mc.blubrry.com/armed_american_radio/Armed_American_Radio-261011-HR3.mp3?awCollectionId=14346&awEpisodeId=12271425&aw_0_azn.pgenre=Government&aw_0_1st.ri=blubrry&aw_0_azn.pcountry=US&aw_0_azn.planguage=en-us&cat_exclude=IAB1-8%2CIAB1-9%2CIAB7-41%2CIAB8-5%2CIAB8-18%2CIAB11-4%2CIAB23%2CIAB24%2CIAB25%2CIAB26&aw_0_cnt.rss=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armedamericanradio.org%2Ffeed%2Fpodcast
  - In a broadcast from the Rod of Iron Festival in the Pocono Mountains, Pennsylvania, on October 11, 2026, Armed American Radio host Mark Walters and a roundtable panel—including Justin Moon (CEO of Carr Arms), Jared Yanis (Guns and Gadgets), Tate Adamiak, and Ryan Petty—discussed the fragility of recent Second Amendment victories.
  - The panel focused on the risk that a future administration could reverse current ATF enforcement changes, with Tate Adamiak questioning what would happen if a future ATF director like 'Ettelbach' re-imposed regulations on suppressors and short-barrel rifles.
  - The group expressed concern that administrative changes can be undone instantly by the next administration, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming November 3rd elections.
  - Mark Walters and Jared Yanis highlighted a major Third Circuit Court ruling that overturned New Jersey's gun ban, noting it was written by a Biden-appointed judge and supported by all 15 judges on the panel, including two Obama appointees.
  - However, the panel warned that liberal Supreme Court justices like Sotomayor, Kagan, and Brown might still attempt to bypass the 'Bruen' precedent.
  - The discussion concluded with the assertion that judicial appointments are critical, as a loss in the 2028 election could reset progress made over the last 10 to 15 years.

[2026-10-12] Spanish Supreme Court Maintains Voting Ban for 163,020 Naturalized Citizens Ahead of November Elections
Agencia EFE — https://efe.com/espana/2026-10-12/supremo-suspension-votos-ley-de-nietos/
  - On Monday, October 12, 2026, Spain's Supreme Court (Tribunal Supremo) upheld the suspension of voting rights for 163,020 individuals naturalized under the 'grandchildren law' (ley de nietos), preventing them from voting in the general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026.
  - The Fourth Section of the Contentious-Administrative Chamber rejected a motion by the State Attorney's Office (Abogacía del Estado) and the Public Prosecutor's Office (Fiscalía) to lift the suspension, citing the 'material impossibility' of reviewing nearly 170,000 files as insufficient grounds.
  - The court, acting on petitions from Iustitia Europa and Vox, maintained the measure to ensure the integrity of the electoral roll (CERA), which is based on data from August 1, 2026.
  - The judges criticized the State Attorney's Office for failing to provide even approximate data on the progress of the required file reviews, stating that 'the level of compliance with the order is non-existent.' The court ruled that the general interest in preserving the purity of the electoral process outweighs the voting rights of those whose naturalization conditions have not been fully verified.
  - The court ordered the immediate publication of the rulings and granted affected individuals five days to file objections.

[2026-10-09] Circuito Penedo de Cinema 2026 Announces 1,255 Film Entries and Selected Roster for November Festival
boainformacao.com.br — https://boainformacao.com.br/2026/10/circuito-penedo-de-cinema-divulga-lista-dos-filmes-selecionados-para-as-quatro-mostras-da-edicao-2026/
  - The 2026 Circuito Penedo de Cinema, organized by the Universidade Federal de Alagoas (Ufal), the Government of Alagoas (via Secult-AL), and the Instituto de Estudos Culturais, Políticos e Sociais do Homem Contemporâneo (IECPS), has selected films from 1,255 total entries for its 16th edition, scheduled to take place between November 9 and November 15, 2026, at the Cine Penedo in Penedo, Brazil.
  - The event features four categories: the 19th Festival do Cinema Brasileiro de Penedo (852 entries), the 16th Festival de Cinema Universitário de Alagoas (114 entries), the 13th Mostra Velho Chico de Cinema Ambiental (152 entries), and the non-competitive 16th Mostra de Cinema Infantil (137 entries).
  - According to Sérgio Onofre, the general coordinator, the significant number of submissions reinforces the event's status as a major reference for national cinema and a key driver for local tourism and the economy.
  - The selected films, hailing from various Brazilian states including Alagoas (AL), São Paulo (SP), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), and others, will compete in the three competitive showcases, while the children's category will be non-competitive.
  - The event is sponsored by the Penedo City Hall, Sebrae, and IMA.

[2026-10-09] Judge Orders Count of 37 Absentee Ballots in Tight Hamtramck Mayoral Race
CBS News — https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/judge-orders-counting-37-absentee-ballots-hamtramck-mayoral-race/
  - A Wayne County Third Circuit Court judge, Kathleen M.
  - McCarthy, has ordered the review and counting of 37 absentee ballots from the November 2025 Hamtramck, Michigan mayoral election no later than October 16, 2026.
  - The uncounted votes are critical because the election result was decided by only 11 votes, with Adam Alharbi defeating former councilman and candidate Muhith Mahmood.
  - Alharbi was inaugurated on January 4, 2026, but the outcome remains subject to litigation.
  - Judge McCarthy stated that if the tabulation reveals Muhith Mahmood as the winner, the Board shall not certify the result until further court order.
  - The exclusion of the ballots stemmed from a break in the chain of custody noticed by then-City Clerk Rana Faraj.
  - Mahmood filed an appeal in December 2025 after the Board of Canvassers voted to exclude them.
  - The Michigan Supreme Court declined to hear arguments in January 2026, directing the case to the Michigan Court of Appeals, which ruled in March 2026 that the 37 ballots must be reviewed and added to official counts.
  - As of noon on Friday, October 9, 2026, the Wayne County Election Commission had not posted a date for its next meeting.

[2026-09-20] Mississippi Voters to Decide Contested Judicial Races in November
HubCitySPOKES — https://www.hubcityspokes.com/few-contested-judicial-races-mississippi-voters-decide-november-6aaff935d84a3
  - Mississippi voters will decide several contested judicial races on November 3, 2026, alongside federal midterm elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives.
  - According to the HubCitySPOKES article, while many judicial seats feature a single unopposed candidate, specific numbers of races are contested: 1 out of 5 Court of Appeals seats, 14 out of 57 Chancery Court seats, and 11 out of 63 Circuit Court seats.
  - The article notes that judicial races typically do not draw a crowded field.

[2026-09-16] Trump Rushes Judicial Appointments Ahead of November 2026 Midterms
صحيفة الشرق الأوسط — https://aawsat.com/node/5319049
  - With less than seven weeks until the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, US President Donald Trump is accelerating the appointment of federal judges to secure his judicial legacy before potential Democratic control of the Senate begins in January 2027.
  - According to Reuters, Trump nominated 13 new judges in just nine days during August while the Senate was in recess.
  - Currently, six candidates are facing the Senate Judiciary Committee, while others await a full Senate vote.
  - The Republican Party currently holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate, requiring a simple majority to confirm judges.
  - Robert Luther, a law professor at George Mason University who worked on judicial nominations during Trump's first term, told Reuters that administrations always factor in the fear of losing the Senate at this stage.
  - Recent polls indicate a potential 'blue wave' for Democrats, driven by declining Trump popularity and voter dissatisfaction with the economy, making the rush to confirm judges more urgent.
  - Since returning to power in January 2025, Trump has confirmed 54 judges, adding to the 234 confirmed during his first term; these appointments now represent approximately one-third of all federal judges, who serve for life.
  - On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Conservative Judge Matthew Byrne to the Southern District of Ohio by a vote of 52-45; Byrne is known for conservative stances on abortion and LGBTQ+ issues.
  - This week, the White House also sent nominations for judges in eight states: Tennessee, North Dakota, Kentucky, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Oklahoma, and Alaska, plus a nomination to promote Judge Lee Rudofsky to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals.
  - If confirmed, Trump appointees would form a majority in the Eighth Circuit, covering seven central states, making it the first of 13 federal appellate courts dominated by Trump's appointments.

[2026-09-16] 48 Nebraska Judges Face Retention Vote in November 2026
Nebraska Examiner — https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/09/16/48-nebraska-judges-face-an-up-or-down-vote-to-stay-in-office-after-2026/
  - In Nebraska, 48 judges face an up-or-down retention vote on November 3, 2026, to determine if they can remain in office through January 2033.
  - The vote includes two Workers’ Compensation Court judges (Thomas E.
  - Stine and Dirk V.
  - Block), 23 district court judges, two separate juvenile court judges (in Douglas and Sarpy counties), and 20 county court judges.
  - Voters in Douglas County (Judicial District 4) will see the most judges on their ballots, with as many as 15, while voters in Judicial District 7 will see only the two Workers’ Compensation judges.
  - No Supreme Court justices are up for retention this cycle; only Court of Appeals Judge Michael W.
  - Pirtle of Omaha faces retention.
  - Eighteen of the 48 judges are facing their first retention vote, including 15 appointed by former Gov.
  - Pete Ricketts and one appointed by current Gov.
  - Jim Pillen.

[2026-08-28] Judge Blocks USPS Mail Voting Rules for November 2026 Midterms
HNGN — https://www.hngn.com/articles/272947/20260827/judge-blocks-usps-mail-voting-rules-november-midterms-new-restraining-order.htm
  - US District Judge Indira Talwani of Boston issued a temporary restraining order on Thursday night blocking the US Postal Service (USPS) from implementing newly finalized mail-in voting rules ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.
  - The ruling came less than 24 hours after Judge Talwani lifted a prior nationwide block, creating a rapid legal reversal that leaves election officials struggling to determine applicable rules with fewer than ten weeks remaining.
  - Judge Talwani concluded that states lack the time and resources to comply with the new requirements, which include submitting voter lists and adopting new ballot envelopes with unique barcodes subject to federal approval.
  - She noted that approximately 30% of voters cast ballots by mail in the 2024 elections, meaning the rules affect tens of millions of Americans.
  - The rule, finalized on Wednesday, was developed following a March executive order signed by President Trump directing the USPS to restrict mail-in ballot delivery.
  - The Trump administration, defended by White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis, argues the rules are necessary for election security and fraud prevention.
  - However, Judge Talwani stated the challengers are likely to prevail on claims that the rule is unconstitutional and exceeds USPS authority.
  - The League of Women Voters, a plaintiff in the case, stated the order reinforces that the president cannot use the USPS to disenfranchise voters.
  - The USPS has indicated it would not apply the rule to the 2026 elections unless prior injunctions were lifted, a condition that briefly appeared met before Thursday's new order.
  - The Trump administration is expected to challenge the new ruling quickly, potentially appealing to the First US Circuit Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court.

[2026-08-19] Missouri Court Upholds Trump-Backed Redistricting for November 2026 Election
AP — https://apnews.com/article/redistricting-congress-missouri-trump-gerrymandering-45b51672b78081dc7609e763a0416534
  - Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green ruled on Wednesday that new U.S. House districts backed by President Donald Trump will be used in the November 2026 elections in Missouri, rejecting a bid to place the map on a statewide referendum.
  - Secretary of State Denny Hoskins had previously rejected a petition with thousands of signatures, asserting that Missouri's Constitution does not allow a referendum on congressional redistricting, a view the judge upheld.
  - The ruling is a victory for Republicans seeking to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House, though opponents, including Richard von Glahn of People Not Politicians, have announced an appeal to the Missouri Supreme Court.
  - The new map specifically targets Democratic U.S. Rep.
  - Emanuel Cleaver by reassigning portions of Kansas City and stretching his 5th Congressional District into Republican-heavy rural areas, with an Associated Press estimate indicating that about 59% of its voters are new to the district.
  - State Sen.
  - Rick Brattin won the Republican primary in the reshaped district in early August, while Cleaver was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
  - Republican Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and the Republican Party argued that changing districts after the August primaries would cause 'widespread voter confusion' and violate federal law, a point the judge agreed with.
  - This Missouri case is part of a broader national effort, with Republicans hoping to gain up to 16 additional seats from new maps in eight states including Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama, while Democrats hope to gain up to six seats in California and Utah.
  - The article notes that it remains to be seen if the redistricting works as intended, citing historical midterm losses for the president's party and Trump's poor approval ratings as potential hurdles.

[… older articles omitted]

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: As of Oct 13, 2026, the uscourts.gov Confirmation Listing shows 'Total Confirmations: 57' for the current Congress, with district and circuit judges combined. The latest confirmation dates I could see are in July 2026 (for example, Westercamp on 07/21/2026). November 2026 has not started, so there are no November confirmations yet.
  Last updated: 2026-10-13 (page published-time header) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The resolution month has not begun. According to Bloomberg (Sept 17, 2026), three appellate nominees were pending, and only Daniel Domenico (10th Circuit) was likely to be confirmed before the Senate left for October campaigning. The midterm election is Nov 3, so any November circuit confirmations would come in the lame-duck session, roughly mid- to late November. Those confirmations could include the remaining pending circuit nominees, such as Rudofsky. The listing groups rows by circuit number and court code, so to count November circuit confirmations, filter for court-of-appeals rows (for example '09 - CCA') with a confirmation date in 11/2026.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  List of federal judges appointed by Donald Trump:
  This is a comprehensive list of all Article III and Article IV United States federal judges appointed by President Donald Trump, as well as a partial list of Article I federal judicial appointments, excluding appointments to the District of Columbia judiciary.
  Detail: This is a comprehensive list of all Article III and Article IV United States federal judges appointed by President Donald Trump, as well as a partial list of Article I federal judicial appointments, excluding appointments to the District of Columbia judiciary.
As of October 2, 2026, the United States Senate has confirmed 290 Article III judges nominated by Trump: three associate justices of the Supreme Court of the United States, 64 judges for the United States courts of appeals, 219 judges for the United States district courts, and four judges for the United States Court of International Trade. There are 16 nominations awaiting Senate action: Three for the courts of appeals, 13 for the district courts and none for the Trade Court. There are no vacancies on the U.S. courts of appeals, 25 vacancies on the U.S. district courts, and no vacancies on the U.S. Court of International Trade, as well as fifteen announced vacancies that may occur before the end of Trump's term (three for the courts of appeals and twelve for the district courts). Trump has not made any recess appointments to the federal courts.
In terms of Article I courts, Trump has made 43 appointments: 18 for the United States...

  Second presidency of Donald Trump:
  Donald Trump's second and current tenure as the president of the United States began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. Trump, a Republican, previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021. He lost re-election to Democratic nominee Joe Biden in 2020, and then won against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. Trump is the second former U.S. president to return to office. Alongside Trump's second presidency, the Republican Party also currently holds simple majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, thereby attaining an overall federal government trifecta.

  List of federal judges appointed by Donald Trump:
  This is a comprehensive list of all Article III and Article IV United States federal judges appointed by President Donald Trump, as well as a partial list of Article I federal judicial appointments, excluding appointments to the District of Columbia judiciary.

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
I found no cloture filings on circuit nominees in October 2026. The Senate has been in recess since about Oct. 1 and isn't due back until the week of Nov. 9. Several of the results below are stale or garbled, and I flag those.

## 1. Executive Calendar and circuit nominees reported by Judiciary (Oct. 2026)

- **Anna St. John, Fifth Circuit:** 
On Sept. 24, 2026 the Judiciary Committee advanced her nomination by a vote of 12-10.
 The same markup advanced several U.S. attorney, U.S. marshal and Sentencing Commission nominees. Source: https://www.einpresswire.com/article/944954002/senate-judiciary-committee-advances-13-judicial-and-executive-nominees
- **Lee Philip Rudofsky, Eighth Circuit:** 
The committee held a hearing on his nomination on Sept. 30, 2026
, along with a district nominee for the Middle District of Florida. Source: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-09-30/pdf/CREC-2026-09-30-pt1-PgD959-4.pdf. 
The Judiciary Committee's nominations page lists him as received Sept. 14, 2026, with the last action "Hearings held."
 He therefore hasn't been reported yet. I found no October markup that reported him.
- **Daniel Domenico, Tenth Circuit:** 
The committee advanced him by a vote of 12-10.
 
His nomination is listed as placed on the Senate Executive Calendar as Calendar No. 901.
 
The Senate's executive calendar page shows a date added of 2026-07-23.
 Sources: https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial and https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_cal_civ.htm. I couldn't confirm whether he has since received a floor vote. The cached pages may be out of date, and one is flagged as 454 days old.
- **Daniel Traynor, Eighth Circuit:** 
He is listed as confirmed 48-47.
 That means he is no longer pending.
- **Vacancy snapshot:** 
As of Oct. 6, 2026, the U.S. Courts table shows 0 current circuit vacancies, 0 circuit nominees pending, and 3 circuit nominees pending for future vacancies.
 Source: https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/archive-judicial-vacancies/2026/10/summary
- **Bad results:** Several hits were from the Biden-era Judiciary Committee (Durbin, Mangi, Bloomekatz) and are irrelevant.

## 2. Senate schedule and return after the midterms

- **Return date:** 
Senators aren't scheduled to return to the Capitol until the week of Nov. 9, after the Nov. 3 election.
 
Both chambers will return from the midterm recess on Nov. 9.
 Sources: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6121941-senate-adjourns-midterm-campaigns/ and https://nlihc.org/resource/house-leaves-session-early-campaign-ahead-november-elections
- **Departure:** 
The Senate adjourned on a Wednesday night (apparently Sept. 30) after confirming Keith Sonderling as Labor Secretary, leaving a pile of unfinished business.
 
The Senate had been scheduled to stay in session until Oct. 2.

- **Remaining time:** 
The Senate is scheduled to be in regular session only eight days in November and 14 days in December.
 
It is

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
How many US circuit court judges will be confirmed during November 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Bloomberg: [Midterm Crush, Looming Lame Duck Pressure Judicial Nominations](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "7f4aa719a3f37728", "sheet_id": "20"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the number of United States circuit court judges confirmed by the US Senate during November 2026 according to [uscourts.gov](https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing).

## Options
  - 0
  - 1
  - 2
  - 3
  - 4
  - 5+

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: As of Oct 13, 2026, the uscourts.gov Confirmation Listing shows 'Total Confirmations: 57' for the current Congress, with district and circuit judges combined. The latest confirmation dates I could see are in July 2026 (for example, Westercamp on 07/21/2026). November 2026 has not started, so there are no November confirmations yet.
  Last updated: 2026-10-13 (page published-time header) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The resolution month has not begun. According to Bloomberg (Sept 17, 2026), three appellate nominees were pending, and only Daniel Domenico (10th Circuit) was likely to be confirmed before the Senate left for October campaigning. The midterm election is Nov 3, so any November circuit confirmations would come in the lame-duck session, roughly mid- to late November. Those confirmations could include the remaining pending circuit nominees, such as Rudofsky. The listing groups rows by circuit number and court code, so to count November circuit confirmations, filter for court-of-appeals rows (for example '09 - CCA') with a confirmation date in 11/2026.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  List of federal judges appointed by Donald Trump:
  This is a comprehensive list of all Article III and Article IV United States federal judges appointed by President Donald Trump, as well as a partial list of Article I federal judicial appointments, excluding appointments to the District of Columbia judiciary.
  Detail: This is a comprehensive list of all Article III and Article IV United States federal judges appointed by President Donald Trump, as well as a partial list of Article I federal judicial appointments, excluding appointments to the District of Columbia judiciary.
As of October 2, 2026, the United States Senate has confirmed 290 Article III judges nominated by Trump: three associate justices of the Supreme Court of the United States, 64 judges for the United States courts of appeals, 219 judges for the United States district courts, and four judges for the United States Court of International Trade. There are 16 nominations awaiting Senate action: Three for the courts of appeals, 13 for the district courts and none for the Trade Court. There are no vacancies on the U.S. courts of appeals, 25 vacancies on the U.S. district courts, and no vacancies on the U.S. Court of International Trade, as well as fifteen announced vacancies that may occur before the end of Trump's term (three for the courts of appeals and twelve for the district courts). Trump has not made any recess appointments to the federal courts.
In terms of Article I courts, Trump has made 43 appointments: 18 for the United States...

  Second presidency of Donald Trump:
  Donald Trump's second and current tenure as the president of the United States began upon his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. Trump, a Republican, previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021. He lost re-election to Democratic nominee Joe Biden in 2020, and then won against Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. Trump is the second former U.S. president to return to office. Alongside Trump's second presidency, the Republican Party also currently holds simple majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, thereby attaining an overall federal government trifecta.

  List of federal judges appointed by Donald Trump:
  This is a comprehensive list of all Article III and Article IV United States federal judges appointed by President Donald Trump, as well as a partial list of Article I federal judicial appointments, excluding appointments to the District of Columbia judiciary.

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
I found no cloture filings on circuit nominees in October 2026. The Senate has been in recess since about Oct. 1 and isn't due back until the week of Nov. 9. Several of the results below are stale or garbled, and I flag those.

## 1. Executive Calendar and circuit nominees reported by Judiciary (Oct. 2026)

- **Anna St. John, Fifth Circuit:** 
On Sept. 24, 2026 the Judiciary Committee advanced her nomination by a vote of 12-10.
 The same markup advanced several U.S. attorney, U.S. marshal and Sentencing Commission nominees. Source: https://www.einpresswire.com/article/944954002/senate-judiciary-committee-advances-13-judicial-and-executive-nominees
- **Lee Philip Rudofsky, Eighth Circuit:** 
The committee held a hearing on his nomination on Sept. 30, 2026
, along with a district nominee for the Middle District of Florida. Source: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-09-30/pdf/CREC-2026-09-30-pt1-PgD959-4.pdf. 
The Judiciary Committee's nominations page lists him as received Sept. 14, 2026, with the last action "Hearings held."
 He therefore hasn't been reported yet. I found no October markup that reported him.
- **Daniel Domenico, Tenth Circuit:** 
The committee advanced him by a vote of 12-10.
 
His nomination is listed as placed on the Senate Executive Calendar as Calendar No. 901.
 
The Senate's executive calendar page shows a date added of 2026-07-23.
 Sources: https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial and https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_cal_civ.htm. I couldn't confirm whether he has since received a floor vote. The cached pages may be out of date, and one is flagged as 454 days old.
- **Daniel Traynor, Eighth Circuit:** 
He is listed as confirmed 48-47.
 That means he is no longer pending.
- **Vacancy snapshot:** 
As of Oct. 6, 2026, the U.S. Courts table shows 0 current circuit vacancies, 0 circuit nominees pending, and 3 circuit nominees pending for future vacancies.
 Source: https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/archive-judicial-vacancies/2026/10/summary
- **Bad results:** Several hits were from the Biden-era Judiciary Committee (Durbin, Mangi, Bloomekatz) and are irrelevant.

## 2. Senate schedule and return after the midterms

- **Return date:** 
Senators aren't scheduled to return to the Capitol until the week of Nov. 9, after the Nov. 3 election.
 
Both chambers will return from the midterm recess on Nov. 9.
 Sources: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6121941-senate-adjourns-midterm-campaigns/ and https://nlihc.org/resource/house-leaves-session-early-campaign-ahead-november-elections
- **Departure:** 
The Senate adjourned on a Wednesday night (apparently Sept. 30) after confirming Keith Sonderling as Labor Secretary, leaving a pile of unfinished business.
 
The Senate had been scheduled to stay in session until Oct. 2.

- **Remaining time:** 
The Senate is scheduled to be in regular session only eight days in November and 14 days in December.
 
It is

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-13; forecasting closes 2026-10-13; resolves 2026-12-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
14 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 9 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-13] Spain Approves 700 New Judicial and Prosecutor Posts Amid Electoral Advance
20 minutos — https://www.20minutos.es/nacional/directo-rueda-prensa-posterior-consejo-ministros-que-aprueba-700-nuevas-plazas-jueces-fiscales_7047945_0.html
  - On October 13, 2026, the Spanish Council of Ministers, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, approved the creation of 700 new judicial and prosecutorial positions via two emergency decree-laws, representing a 7.8% increase in the judicial staff and a 6.6% increase in the public prosecutor's office, according to Ministry of Justice sources.
  - The new roles are distributed as 500 judges (172 civil, 109 social, 69 criminal, plus 87 mixed organs, 42 territorial, 11 for violence against women, 6 for violence against children, 8 new court presidencies, and 4 in the National Court) and 200 prosecutors.
  - Geographically, Andalusia and Catalonia will receive the most new judicial posts (94 each), followed by Madrid (74) and the Valencian Community (53), while Catalonia will receive 47 new prosecutor positions, Andalusia 31, and Madrid 26.
  - The government aims to fill these positions in 2027, despite the electoral advance to November 29, 2026, though the texts must first pass through the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) before final approval.
  - Additionally, the Council approved a real decree allocating 4.8 million euros in direct subsidies to agro-food and fishing entities to support strategic activities including food security, fishery resource protection, innovation, aquaculture commercialization, and environmental research.

[2026-10-13] Election Scholar Justin Levitt Predicts Normal November 2026 Midterms Despite Fears of Chaos (opinion)
Idaho Press — https://www.idahopress.com/opinion/conversation/i-ve-been-studying-election-integrity-for-26-years-and-here-s-why-i-expect/article_7b789816-7ece-5039-964c-93dd30833729.html
  - In an interview with The Conversation's Naomi Schalit, Justin Levitt, a Professor of Law at Loyola Law School Los Angeles and election law scholar with 26 years of study, argues that widespread election chaos in the November 2026 U.S. midterms is 'extremely unlikely' despite growing public anxiety.
  - Levitt attributes this confidence to the fact that 'almost 100,000 polling places' across the country have 'never been as prepared' as they are now, with officials creating plans for scenarios involving intimidation or ballot seizure.
  - Regarding voter intimidation, Levitt notes that while 'keyboard warriors' exist online, it is 'harder to recruit a group of people to show up and look for fraud' or 'actively intimidate voters' due to the risk of jail or removal.
  - He predicts that if federal interference occurs, it will likely be limited to 'a dozen goons' at 'a suburban polling place' filmed for social media to create a viral scare, rather than a nationwide operation.
  - On the issue of ballot seizure, Levitt distinguishes past incidents—'6 years old' ballots in Fulton County, Georgia, and a '2026 seizure for the 2025 elections' in Riverside, California—from the current situation, noting that seizing ballots while results are pending is 'flatly unconstitutional.' He cites a recent California Supreme Court ruling that declared such seizures 'absolutely, flatly illegal' and notes that judges rarely approve warrants for election materials while results are pending.
  - Levitt concludes that while election officials are 'stressed out, underpaid, and overworked,' the system has 'belts and suspenders' redundancy, and the election 'depends on us' rather than the president.

[2026-10-12] Egan and Ellis to Contest Boone County Circuit Judge Seat
Columbia Missourian — https://www.columbiamissourian.com/news/elections/boone-county/circuit-judge-race-focuses-on-juvenile-criminal-cases/article_d637c10a-3d79-4304-95c5-bad6e264ba37.html
  - In the November 3, 2026, general election for Boone County voters, a contested race for the Division IX associate circuit judge position is set to feature Republican James Egan facing off against Democrat Bill Ellis.
  - The candidates are running to replace Tracy Gonzalez, who is retiring from the position she has held since her election in 2018.
  - This election is noted as a rare contested judicial race, as many other judicial positions remain uncontested.

[2026-10-12] Panel Warns of Future ATF Reversals Following Third Circuit Victory
Show Archives – Armed American Radio | — https://media.blubrry.com/armed_american_radio/mc.blubrry.com/armed_american_radio/Armed_American_Radio-261011-HR3.mp3?awCollectionId=14346&awEpisodeId=12271425&aw_0_azn.pgenre=Government&aw_0_1st.ri=blubrry&aw_0_azn.pcountry=US&aw_0_azn.planguage=en-us&cat_exclude=IAB1-8%2CIAB1-9%2CIAB7-41%2CIAB8-5%2CIAB8-18%2CIAB11-4%2CIAB23%2CIAB24%2CIAB25%2CIAB26&aw_0_cnt.rss=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.armedamericanradio.org%2Ffeed%2Fpodcast
  - In a broadcast from the Rod of Iron Festival in the Pocono Mountains, Pennsylvania, on October 11, 2026, Armed American Radio host Mark Walters and a roundtable panel—including Justin Moon (CEO of Carr Arms), Jared Yanis (Guns and Gadgets), Tate Adamiak, and Ryan Petty—discussed the fragility of recent Second Amendment victories.
  - The panel focused on the risk that a future administration could reverse current ATF enforcement changes, with Tate Adamiak questioning what would happen if a future ATF director like 'Ettelbach' re-imposed regulations on suppressors and short-barrel rifles.
  - The group expressed concern that administrative changes can be undone instantly by the next administration, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming November 3rd elections.
  - Mark Walters and Jared Yanis highlighted a major Third Circuit Court ruling that overturned New Jersey's gun ban, noting it was written by a Biden-appointed judge and supported by all 15 judges on the panel, including two Obama appointees.
  - However, the panel warned that liberal Supreme Court justices like Sotomayor, Kagan, and Brown might still attempt to bypass the 'Bruen' precedent.
  - The discussion concluded with the assertion that judicial appointments are critical, as a loss in the 2028 election could reset progress made over the last 10 to 15 years.

[2026-10-12] Spanish Supreme Court Maintains Voting Ban for 163,020 Naturalized Citizens Ahead of November Elections
Agencia EFE — https://efe.com/espana/2026-10-12/supremo-suspension-votos-ley-de-nietos/
  - On Monday, October 12, 2026, Spain's Supreme Court (Tribunal Supremo) upheld the suspension of voting rights for 163,020 individuals naturalized under the 'grandchildren law' (ley de nietos), preventing them from voting in the general elections scheduled for November 29, 2026.
  - The Fourth Section of the Contentious-Administrative Chamber rejected a motion by the State Attorney's Office (Abogacía del Estado) and the Public Prosecutor's Office (Fiscalía) to lift the suspension, citing the 'material impossibility' of reviewing nearly 170,000 files as insufficient grounds.
  - The court, acting on petitions from Iustitia Europa and Vox, maintained the measure to ensure the integrity of the electoral roll (CERA), which is based on data from August 1, 2026.
  - The judges criticized the State Attorney's Office for failing to provide even approximate data on the progress of the required file reviews, stating that 'the level of compliance with the order is non-existent.' The court ruled that the general interest in preserving the purity of the electoral process outweighs the voting rights of those whose naturalization conditions have not been fully verified.
  - The court ordered the immediate publication of the rulings and granted affected individuals five days to file objections.

[2026-10-09] Circuito Penedo de Cinema 2026 Announces 1,255 Film Entries and Selected Roster for November Festival
boainformacao.com.br — https://boainformacao.com.br/2026/10/circuito-penedo-de-cinema-divulga-lista-dos-filmes-selecionados-para-as-quatro-mostras-da-edicao-2026/
  - The 2026 Circuito Penedo de Cinema, organized by the Universidade Federal de Alagoas (Ufal), the Government of Alagoas (via Secult-AL), and the Instituto de Estudos Culturais, Políticos e Sociais do Homem Contemporâneo (IECPS), has selected films from 1,255 total entries for its 16th edition, scheduled to take place between November 9 and November 15, 2026, at the Cine Penedo in Penedo, Brazil.
  - The event features four categories: the 19th Festival do Cinema Brasileiro de Penedo (852 entries), the 16th Festival de Cinema Universitário de Alagoas (114 entries), the 13th Mostra Velho Chico de Cinema Ambiental (152 entries), and the non-competitive 16th Mostra de Cinema Infantil (137 entries).
  - According to Sérgio Onofre, the general coordinator, the significant number of submissions reinforces the event's status as a major reference for national cinema and a key driver for local tourism and the economy.
  - The selected films, hailing from various Brazilian states including Alagoas (AL), São Paulo (SP), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), and others, will compete in the three competitive showcases, while the children's category will be non-competitive.
  - The event is sponsored by the Penedo City Hall, Sebrae, and IMA.

[2026-10-09] Judge Orders Count of 37 Absentee Ballots in Tight Hamtramck Mayoral Race
CBS News — https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/judge-orders-counting-37-absentee-ballots-hamtramck-mayoral-race/
  - A Wayne County Third Circuit Court judge, Kathleen M.
  - McCarthy, has ordered the review and counting of 37 absentee ballots from the November 2025 Hamtramck, Michigan mayoral election no later than October 16, 2026.
  - The uncounted votes are critical because the election result was decided by only 11 votes, with Adam Alharbi defeating former councilman and candidate Muhith Mahmood.
  - Alharbi was inaugurated on January 4, 2026, but the outcome remains subject to litigation.
  - Judge McCarthy stated that if the tabulation reveals Muhith Mahmood as the winner, the Board shall not certify the result until further court order.
  - The exclusion of the ballots stemmed from a break in the chain of custody noticed by then-City Clerk Rana Faraj.
  - Mahmood filed an appeal in December 2025 after the Board of Canvassers voted to exclude them.
  - The Michigan Supreme Court declined to hear arguments in January 2026, directing the case to the Michigan Court of Appeals, which ruled in March 2026 that the 37 ballots must be reviewed and added to official counts.
  - As of noon on Friday, October 9, 2026, the Wayne County Election Commission had not posted a date for its next meeting.

[2026-09-20] Mississippi Voters to Decide Contested Judicial Races in November
HubCitySPOKES — https://www.hubcityspokes.com/few-contested-judicial-races-mississippi-voters-decide-november-6aaff935d84a3
  - Mississippi voters will decide several contested judicial races on November 3, 2026, alongside federal midterm elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives.
  - According to the HubCitySPOKES article, while many judicial seats feature a single unopposed candidate, specific numbers of races are contested: 1 out of 5 Court of Appeals seats, 14 out of 57 Chancery Court seats, and 11 out of 63 Circuit Court seats.
  - The article notes that judicial races typically do not draw a crowded field.

[2026-09-16] Trump Rushes Judicial Appointments Ahead of November 2026 Midterms
صحيفة الشرق الأوسط — https://aawsat.com/node/5319049
  - With less than seven weeks until the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, US President Donald Trump is accelerating the appointment of federal judges to secure his judicial legacy before potential Democratic control of the Senate begins in January 2027.
  - According to Reuters, Trump nominated 13 new judges in just nine days during August while the Senate was in recess.
  - Currently, six candidates are facing the Senate Judiciary Committee, while others await a full Senate vote.
  - The Republican Party currently holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate, requiring a simple majority to confirm judges.
  - Robert Luther, a law professor at George Mason University who worked on judicial nominations during Trump's first term, told Reuters that administrations always factor in the fear of losing the Senate at this stage.
  - Recent polls indicate a potential 'blue wave' for Democrats, driven by declining Trump popularity and voter dissatisfaction with the economy, making the rush to confirm judges more urgent.
  - Since returning to power in January 2025, Trump has confirmed 54 judges, adding to the 234 confirmed during his first term; these appointments now represent approximately one-third of all federal judges, who serve for life.
  - On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Conservative Judge Matthew Byrne to the Southern District of Ohio by a vote of 52-45; Byrne is known for conservative stances on abortion and LGBTQ+ issues.
  - This week, the White House also sent nominations for judges in eight states: Tennessee, North Dakota, Kentucky, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Oklahoma, and Alaska, plus a nomination to promote Judge Lee Rudofsky to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals.
  - If confirmed, Trump appointees would form a majority in the Eighth Circuit, covering seven central states, making it the first of 13 federal appellate courts dominated by Trump's appointments.

[2026-09-16] 48 Nebraska Judges Face Retention Vote in November 2026
Nebraska Examiner — https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2026/09/16/48-nebraska-judges-face-an-up-or-down-vote-to-stay-in-office-after-2026/
  - In Nebraska, 48 judges face an up-or-down retention vote on November 3, 2026, to determine if they can remain in office through January 2033.
  - The vote includes two Workers’ Compensation Court judges (Thomas E.
  - Stine and Dirk V.
  - Block), 23 district court judges, two separate juvenile court judges (in Douglas and Sarpy counties), and 20 county court judges.
  - Voters in Douglas County (Judicial District 4) will see the most judges on their ballots, with as many as 15, while voters in Judicial District 7 will see only the two Workers’ Compensation judges.
  - No Supreme Court justices are up for retention this cycle; only Court of Appeals Judge Michael W.
  - Pirtle of Omaha faces retention.
  - Eighteen of the 48 judges are facing their first retention vote, including 15 appointed by former Gov.
  - Pete Ricketts and one appointed by current Gov.
  - Jim Pillen.

[2026-08-28] Judge Blocks USPS Mail Voting Rules for November 2026 Midterms
HNGN — https://www.hngn.com/articles/272947/20260827/judge-blocks-usps-mail-voting-rules-november-midterms-new-restraining-order.htm
  - US District Judge Indira Talwani of Boston issued a temporary restraining order on Thursday night blocking the US Postal Service (USPS) from implementing newly finalized mail-in voting rules ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.
  - The ruling came less than 24 hours after Judge Talwani lifted a prior nationwide block, creating a rapid legal reversal that leaves election officials struggling to determine applicable rules with fewer than ten weeks remaining.
  - Judge Talwani concluded that states lack the time and resources to comply with the new requirements, which include submitting voter lists and adopting new ballot envelopes with unique barcodes subject to federal approval.
  - She noted that approximately 30% of voters cast ballots by mail in the 2024 elections, meaning the rules affect tens of millions of Americans.
  - The rule, finalized on Wednesday, was developed following a March executive order signed by President Trump directing the USPS to restrict mail-in ballot delivery.
  - The Trump administration, defended by White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis, argues the rules are necessary for election security and fraud prevention.
  - However, Judge Talwani stated the challengers are likely to prevail on claims that the rule is unconstitutional and exceeds USPS authority.
  - The League of Women Voters, a plaintiff in the case, stated the order reinforces that the president cannot use the USPS to disenfranchise voters.
  - The USPS has indicated it would not apply the rule to the 2026 elections unless prior injunctions were lifted, a condition that briefly appeared met before Thursday's new order.
  - The Trump administration is expected to challenge the new ruling quickly, potentially appealing to the First US Circuit Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court.

[2026-08-19] Missouri Court Upholds Trump-Backed Redistricting for November 2026 Election
AP — https://apnews.com/article/redistricting-congress-missouri-trump-gerrymandering-45b51672b78081dc7609e763a0416534
  - Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green ruled on Wednesday that new U.S. House districts backed by President Donald Trump will be used in the November 2026 elections in Missouri, rejecting a bid to place the map on a statewide referendum.
  - Secretary of State Denny Hoskins had previously rejected a petition with thousands of signatures, asserting that Missouri's Constitution does not allow a referendum on congressional redistricting, a view the judge upheld.
  - The ruling is a victory for Republicans seeking to maintain their slim majority in the U.S. House, though opponents, including Richard von Glahn of People Not Politicians, have announced an appeal to the Missouri Supreme Court.
  - The new map specifically targets Democratic U.S. Rep.
  - Emanuel Cleaver by reassigning portions of Kansas City and stretching his 5th Congressional District into Republican-heavy rural areas, with an Associated Press estimate indicating that about 59% of its voters are new to the district.
  - State Sen.
  - Rick Brattin won the Republican primary in the reshaped district in early August, while Cleaver was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
  - Republican Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and the Republican Party argued that changing districts after the August primaries would cause 'widespread voter confusion' and violate federal law, a point the judge agreed with.
  - This Missouri case is part of a broader national effort, with Republicans hoping to gain up to 16 additional seats from new maps in eight states including Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama, while Democrats hope to gain up to six seats in California and Utah.
  - The article notes that it remains to be seen if the redistricting works as intended, citing historical midterm losses for the president's party and Trump's poor approval ratings as potential hurdles.

[… older articles omitted]

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-13] Three circuit nominees are pending and no circuit judge has been confirmed since 2026-07-23. The Senate Judiciary Committee's nominations page shows Domenico (10th Cir.) and St. John (5th Cir.) on the Executive Calendar, at Nos. 901 and 944. Rudofsky (8th Cir.) had a hearing on 2026-09-30 and has not been reported out. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law said Domenico was the only one of three pending appellate picks likely to be confirmed before the October recess. He was not confirmed. Bloomberg Law framed the Senate as squeezed by the midterms (Nov. 3), and noted that the pace of judicial confirmations had accelerated in June and July. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-09-30] Rudofsky's hearing was held on 2026-09-30, alongside district nominees Long, Mansfield and Osete. Nominations for him and the district nominees were received 2026-09-14. A committee vote typically follows 1–3 weeks after a hearing, and I found no markup date. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/committee-activity/hearings/nominations-09-30-2026
- [2026-09-24] The Judiciary Committee placed St. John on the Executive Calendar (No. 944). A Judiciary Committee release reported her 12-10 vote. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-advances-13-judicial-and-executive-nominees
- [2026-07-23] Domenico was reported 12-10 on 2026-07-23. He is still on the calendar (No. 901) after the Senate processed other district nominees in September. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/senate-judiciary-committee-advances-circuit-judge-district-judge-and-us-attorney
- [2026-10-01] The Senate adjourned on 2026-09-30 or 2026-10-01 until after the election. It is scheduled to return the week of Nov. 9. UPI/The Hill report only 8 session days in November and 14 in December. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2026/10/01/senate-adjourns-november/8331790859878
- [2025-11-19] The original Senate calendar had the Senate back for two days the week of Nov. 9, before Veterans Day on Nov. 11. The Hill reports a Thanksgiving recess week (Thanksgiving is Nov. 26). That leaves roughly Nov. 9–20 as the realistic window for November floor votes. https://rollcall.com/2025/11/19/senate-calendar-2026-midterm-election/
- [2026-10-02] Pioneer Public Affairs reports that Thune "reportedly" set a Nov. 20 deadline for committees to process nominations. That would set up a large en bloc nominations package in the lame duck. This is a report, not confirmed, and en bloc packages have covered executive nominees. The August en bloc package had 74 nominations (S.Res.817). I did not verify whether judges can be included. https://pioneerpublicaffairs.substack.com/p/the-eye-of-the-storm
- [2026-10-01] The lame-duck agenda is crowded: government funding (a CR runs through Dec. 11), permitting reform, the farm bill, the NDAA, FISA, a possible budget resolution and reconciliation, and CRA votes. Thune also listed "another nominations package" as a priority. https://www.vinylinfo.org/news/legislative-update-senate-adjourns-until-after-midterm-elections/
- [2026-07-22] Recent circuit confirmations show that individual circuit votes are feasible with 51-46-type cloture margins. Flowers (6th Cir.) was confirmed 49-46 on 2026-07-22. Traynor (8th Cir.) was confirmed 48-47. Schwartz (2nd Cir.) was confirmed 50-45 on 2026-07-14. Smith (8th Cir.) was confirmed on 2026-06-15. https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_confc.htm
- [2026-10-13] The uscourts.gov confirmation listing, fetched today, shows "Total Confirmations: 57". It is a table of Article III confirmations in the 119th Congress, and the circuit-only count is not isolated in the fetched text. No November 2026 entries can exist yet. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing
- [2026-10-13] No Senate floor action is scheduled between now and Nov. 9, so the October count is zero. Any November confirmation would come from Domenico and St. John (both floor-ready) or Rudofsky (if the committee reports him in time). The practical maximum is therefore 3. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial

BOTTOM LINE: Two floor-ready circuit nominees (Domenico, St. John) and one more in committee (Rudofsky) could be confirmed only in the roughly two-week window of Nov. 9–20, in a lame duck with a crowded agenda. I found no announced floor schedule for these nominees, and the counted outcome is capped at about 3.

NOT FOUND: a published Senate floor schedule or cloture filings for Domenico or St. John for November. A Judiciary Committee markup date for Rudofsky. Confirmation that judicial nominees can ride in the reported en bloc package. Any circuit vacancies or nominations beyond these three (not checked in the vacancy table).

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-09] The Senate is out until Nov. 9. It holds only pro forma sessions with no business through Nov. 5, and returns for business Monday, Nov. 9 at 3:00 pm. Its first order of business is the permitting-reform vehicle, H.R.2347. https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/
- [2026-10-01] The Senate adjourned for the midterms after confirming Keith Sonderling as Labor Secretary. The Hill said the lame-duck agenda is crowded (budget resolution/reconciliation, CRA resolutions, NDAA, FISA, funding). It reported Republicans are skeptical much will get done. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6121941-senate-adjourns-midterm-campaigns/
- [2026-07-23] Pending circuit nominees: Domenico (10th Cir.) was reported 12-10 on Jul 23. A Judiciary Committee "confirmed" listing shows him confirmed 51-47, but the page's own entries conflict about his status. Bloomberg Law (Sept) called him the one pending appellate pick likely to be confirmed before the recess, so he is probably already confirmed and not a November candidate. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/confirmed/?pagenum_rs=2
- [2026-09-30] Anna St. John (5th Cir., Louisiana) was reported 12-10 on Sept 24 and was on the Executive Calendar (No. 944) as of the committee's Sept 30 listing. I found no sign she was confirmed before the recess, so she is the likeliest circuit nominee for a November floor vote. Lee Rudofsky (8th Cir., Arkansas) had his hearing Sept 30. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-30] Committee rules require a one-week holdover after a hearing before a vote. Rudofsky's earliest committee vote is therefore after Oct 7. A committee vote would likely come in mid-November, once the Senate is back. https://legis1.com/news/senate-judiciary-committee-nominees-will-vote-on
- [2026-09-08] Ballsandstrikes' timetable (written before the Sept 30 hearing) shows nominees heard Sept 16 becoming floor-eligible Nov 30 and those heard Sept 30 on Dec 7. Rudofsky's floor timing is therefore most likely December, not November. The Senate is scheduled to end the year around Dec 18, with a Thanksgiving recess. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law said the Senate is making a final pre-midterm push on judges. Further-back nominees fall into the post-election calendar. It said lame-duck confirmations may be harder because of absences and competing priorities. Urgency would rise if Democrats win the Senate. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-10-13] The uscourts.gov confirmation listing shows 57 total Article III confirmations in the second term. Bloomberg reported 53 as of early August, and Wikipedia (undated) lists 3 circuit nominations awaiting Senate action and no current circuit vacancies. I did not isolate the 2026 circuit count from the page. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing
- [2026-08-11] Base rate: the Senate confirmed three appeals judges in July 2026 alone, and six circuit judges in all of 2025. Circuit vacancies have been scarce. Few GOP-appointed circuit judges have taken senior status, though several announced in 2026. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-senate-recess-put-squeeze-on-trump-judicial-nominees
- [2026-10-05] Demand Justice's tracker showed no scheduled confirmations or cloture votes for the week of Oct 5, with the Senate on recess until 11/9. https://demandjustice.org/senate-vote-tracker/
- [Historical] In past midterm lame ducks the Senate cleared the judicial calendar in the first weeks back. In Nov 2010 it was expected to clear 18 pending nominees, including one circuit nominee. Democrats pushed hard in the 2022 and 2024 lame ducks. https://www.foxnews.com/story/republicans-seek-judicial-confirmations.print

BOTTOM LINE: The only Senate session days in November are Nov 9 onward, about three weeks minus the Thanksgiving week, and Thune's floor time is contested. St. John (on the calendar, party-line 12-10) is the only circuit nominee clearly floor-ready. Rudofsky's timing points to December, so the outside view points to a low count, plausibly 0 or 1, with 2 unlikely.

NOT FOUND: Confirmation of the Domenico vote date and whether St. John was confirmed before the Oct 1 recess. Any prediction-market or expert odds on November circuit confirmations. A Senate floor schedule naming judges for the week of Nov 9. The uscourts.gov 2026 circuit-only count (the page's middle section was truncated).

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-13] The Judiciary Committee's own listing, fetched today, shows Domenico (10th Cir.) still at "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar, No. 901". Colmenero (district) was confirmed 50-47 on 9/23, and Mitchell on 9/17. The Senate cleared the district nominees from the same May 12 package and skipped Domenico. This resolves the colleagues' doubt: Domenico is unconfirmed and is a live November candidate. The "confirmed 51-47" line on the committee's confirmed-page snippet conflicts with this and is not supported. Bloomberg's Sept 17 "likely before recess" call did not happen. St. John (5th Cir.) is at No. 944, and Rudofsky is at "Hearings held". https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-10-13] The Senate Daily Press page shows the Senate is adjourned except for pro forma sessions through Nov. 5. It returns Monday Nov. 9 at 3:00 pm with a single vote at 5:30 pm. The pro forma dates are Oct 13, 15, 19, 22, 26, 29, and Nov 2 and 5. No judicial confirmation is possible before Nov 9, and the first vote that evening is probably not a judge. The earlier report said H.R.2347 is the first order of business. https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/
- [2026-10-13] Three circuit-court nominees can plausibly count. Two are on the calendar: Domenico and St. John. One is in committee: Rudofsky, who was nominated 9/14 and heard 9/30. Congress.gov shows the Rudofsky nomination's last action as referral on 9/14. The committee page shows no markup. No other circuit nominee appears on the committee's first page, which is sorted newest first. The ceiling is therefore 3. https://www.congress.gov/nomination/119th-congress/1272/15
- [2026-09-30] Sequence needed for 3 confirmations: the committee must report Rudofsky, which can't happen before the one-week holdover and would need a markup after the Senate returns. Then Thune must file cloture on all three, and each needs a cloture vote plus a confirmation vote. Recent circuit margins were 48-47 to 52-45, so attendance matters. Rudofsky also faces opposition: Blumenthal declared against him, and Durbin attacked his 2022 Voting Rights Act ruling. Legis1 calls the floor timeline "the central open question". https://legis1.com/news/judicial-nominees-senate-panel-grills-four-before
- [2026-09-23] Sequence evidence on how Thune uses floor time: the Senate processed the district nominees from the May 12 batch (Mitchell 9/17, Colmenero 9/23, Byrne 9/15) before the recess, and Domenico, the circuit pick, waited. Circuit nominees are party-line, 12-10 in committee. The Senate has been voting on them one at a time with few absences allowed. Each circuit slot costs more floor time than a district slot. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-25] Louisiana press (The Advocate, around Sept 24) said the full Senate likely wouldn't take up St. John "until next week, at least, and possibly in November". The Senate then left without doing so, with the Labor Secretary vote the last item (per the earlier Oct 1 report). So St. John and Domenico both carried over, with no floor time. https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/national_politics/anna-st-john-trump-nominee-senate-confirmation/article_86d3b4ef-5043-56ee-a7cd-f3854af490a4.html
- [2026-09-14] Balls & Strikes' calendar, a partial snippet, had St. John and Cook (district) reaching the floor Sept 28. Later nominees would have a last hearing on Nov 18 and reach the floor Dec 14, the last scheduled week. That is the basis for Rudofsky's likely December timing. Nothing in the nominees' pipeline requires November action except Domenico and St. John, who are floor-ready now. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-10-06] Bloomberg Law (about Oct 6): Alito said he will stay on the Court. Thune told Punchbowl in July that a lame-duck Supreme Court confirmation "can be done". The Senate majority is "up for grabs" in the Nov. 3 election. Relevance: if Republicans fear losing the Senate, there is an incentive to clear the calendar, and that incentive does not depend on Alito. If they look likely to hold it, urgency falls and the nominees could slip into December or 2027. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-courts-alito-plans-to-stay-even-if-democrats-win-senate
- [2026-09-17] The Bloomberg Law source article has Thune citing "a big but limited opportunity". It quotes Fragoso, a former McConnell counsel, that leadership must manage the load. It also warned that the hearing for Rudofsky depended on the Senate staying in town, which it did. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [Historical] Grassley's 2012 floor statement said the Senate had confirmed judges in a presidential-year lame duck only a few times since 1940 (CRS: 1944, 1980, 2004). Those precedents are for presidential-election years and different contexts. In 2020, the GOP Senate under the same Thune-era leadership confirmed 18 judges in the lame duck, per an ABC summary. Both show that lame-duck clearing is possible when the majority wants it, though the 2020 case had a more comfortable schedule. https://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/setting-record-straight-lame-duck-sessions-and-judicial-nominations

BOTTOM LINE: The count in November is bounded by floor time after Nov 9 and Thanksgiving, not by supply. Domenico and St. John are floor-ready and unconfirmed, with Rudofsky a stretch because of committee timing. The outcome therefore hinges on whether Thune spends cloture time on judges, rather than on the executive-nominations package and must-pass items, during Nov 9–20.

NOT FOUND: a post-recess floor schedule or cloture filing naming any judge. A Rudofsky markup date. Any Thune statement setting an order for the November judges. Whether the Senate's November session extends past the week of Nov 16 (the Thanksgiving recess dates are not confirmed on a primary page). The uscourts.gov circuit-only count. Any market or analyst odds.

### EXPERT VIEW
I found no prediction-market or Metaculus listing for this question, and no analyst has published a number for circuit confirmations in November 2026. The evidence below is what experts and official sources say about the pipeline and calendar.

- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law (the question's source article) says the GOP Senate is making a final push before the midterms. Daniel Domenico (10th Cir.) was the only one of three pending appellate nominees likely to be confirmed before the October campaign recess. Nominees further back in the pipeline "will fall into the post-election" calendar. The article notes that lame-duck confirmations may be harder. The midterm is Nov 3. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-09-24] The Senate Judiciary Committee page shows Anna St. John (5th Cir., Louisiana) was placed on the Executive Calendar (No. 944) on 09/24. Her committee vote was 12-10, per legis1. She is a floor-ready circuit nominee. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-30] The same committee page shows Lee Rudofsky (8th Cir.) had his hearing on 09/30, with "Hearings held" as the last action. He was nominated 09/14. Committee rules require a one-week wait after a hearing before a committee vote. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-30] Chairman Grassley opened the Rudofsky hearing, which the committee site confirms. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/rep/releases/grassley-opens-senate-judiciary-committee-nominations-hearing-for-circuit-and-district-nominees
- [2026-10-07] Legis1 reports Sen. Blumenthal will vote against Rudofsky. It also cites Bloomberg Law's Sept. 17 framing of a final push followed by lame-duck pressure. https://legis1.com/news/judicial-nominees-senate-panel-grills-four-before
- [2026-09-14, via Balls & Strikes, about 34 days old; page blocked, snippet only] Balls & Strikes, a progressive outlet, says none of the August-announced nominees can be confirmed before the midterms. It says that if Democrats win the Senate, Republicans will have only the lame duck. One snippet says those nominees reach the floor around Dec 14, "the last week" of the scheduled session. That date may refer to district nominees, so treat it as unverified. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-08-11] Bloomberg Law reports the Senate cleared nearly all pending nominees before the August recess. It confirmed three appeals court judges in July. Lawmakers returned mid-September for three weeks, then break until after Nov 3. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-senate-recess-put-squeeze-on-trump-judicial-nominees
- [2026-08-12, approximate] Brookings says only 6 nominations were awaiting Senate action at the end of July 2026. It describes a dearth of vacancies, compared with 92 pending in the 2018–2020 period. Few vacancies means a small supply of circuit nominees. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-judicial-appointment-pace-is-unlikely-to-match-his-first-term-record/
- [2026-10-13] The uscourts.gov Confirmation Listing, which is the resolution source, was fetched and showed "Total Confirmations: 57". Any November circuit confirmations would appear there. The page snippet did not show a circuit-only breakdown. https://www.uscourts.gov/data-news/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing
- [2026-10-13] The committee page lists the 8th Cir. nominee Traynor as confirmed 48-47 (Vote 208). Domenico's last action there is "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar" (07/23). I could not confirm whether Domenico was confirmed in late September or remains pending. If he is still pending, he is a November candidate. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-10-13] The Senate is out until after Nov 3, per Bloomberg. The Senate's Nov–Dec session length and Thanksgiving week are not confirmed in any source I fetched. Historical comparison: in the 2020 lame duck, the Senate confirmed 13 district judges plus one circuit judge (Barrett's seat). It took them up over several weeks after the election. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bidens-lame-duck-judicial-confirmation-prospects

BOTTOM LINE: Experts describe a thin pipeline, with St. John (floor-ready), possibly Domenico (status unverified), and Rudofsky (post-hearing) as the realistic November circuit candidates. Nobody quantifies the odds, and the sources I found signal heavy lame-duck floor-time pressure. Plausible counts range from 0 up to about 3, and November is likely only part of a session that runs into December.

NOT FOUND: Any Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus market on this question. Any quantified expert forecast. The Domenico confirmation status as of October 13. The Senate's post-election schedule. Rudofsky's committee vote date. The Balls & Strikes full text, which returned 403.

### FAVORITE CASE
- [2026-10-13] The Senate Daily Press page shows the Senate adjourned except for pro forma sessions. Those run through Thu Nov 5 with no business expected. The next vote is Mon Nov 9 at 5:30 pm. A November count therefore depends on roughly Nov 9–20 (the Thanksgiving week is a separate caveat from colleagues). https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/
- [2026-10-13] A rendered Judiciary Committee nominations page shows PN999-2 (Domenico, 10th Cir.) still "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar. Calendar No. 901". It does not show him confirmed. Colleagues flagged a conflicting "confirmed" listing, and this entry points to him still being pending. If so, he is a November candidate, and Bloomberg's September expectation that he would clear before the recess did not happen. PN1181-7 (St. John) is at Calendar No. 944. PN1181-1 is at No. 945, apparently a non-circuit nominee. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-10-13] The same page lists the recent 2026 confirmations. Their record votes are 50-47 (No. 241), 49-45 (No. 238), 52-45 (No. 233) and 48-47 (No. 208). Every recent contested confirmation passed on a near-party-line vote. Two floor-ready circuit nominees therefore need only floor time and attendance. Absence is the main vote risk, because the margins are thin. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/nominations/judicial
- [2026-09-24] The Baton Rouge Advocate reported St. John's 12-10 committee vote and expected a floor vote "next week, at least, and possibly in November". The Senate did not take her up before it left. That makes November the default slot for her. https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/national_politics/anna-st-john-trump-nominee-senate-confirmation/article_86d3b4ef-5043-56ee-a7cd-f3854af490a4.html
- [2026-03-17] Precedent for St. John: as a district nominee she was confirmed 51-45, with 51 Republicans in favour. Cassidy and Kennedy, her home-state senators, both voted for her. The circuit vote should follow the same party-line pattern, with no home-state GOP defection risk. https://www.kennedy.senate.gov/2026/03/17/2026-3-u-s-senate-confirms-kennedy-backed-louisiana-district-judge-nominee-anna-st-john/
- [2026-06-30, Punchbowl, about 103 days old] Thune said he wanted to confirm "as many as possible before November". He cited chronic lame-duck absences among retiring or defeated senators. He also said a lame-duck confirmation "can be done", a SCOTUS-related remark. This shows leadership wants judges done early. The unfinished circuit nominees are the leftovers, which makes them early lame-duck priorities. It also signals that attendance is the risk. https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/judicial-blitz/
- [2026-09-17] Bloomberg Law confirmed that Domenico and the Texas district nominee Colmenero were "ripe for votes". It said Rudofsky's hearing would come later in September. It also said GOP urgency rises if Democrats win the Senate. A midterm loss would push the GOP to use every available day in Nov–Dec. Because the week of Nov 9 begins with only one 5:30 pm vote on permitting reform, nominations are the natural filler. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-10-07] Legis1 said Blumenthal opposes Rudofsky and called the floor timeline for the Sept 30 panel "the central open question". Rudofsky has a 2022 ruling that there is no private right of action under VRA §2. Democrats are opposed, and his committee vote is likely party-line 12-10. Rudofsky still needs the committee vote, which has a one-week holdover. His Nov confirmation requires a markup plus floor time within about two weeks, so he is the weak third. https://legis1.com/news/judicial-nominees-senate-panel-grills-four-before
- [2026-10-13] Rudofsky's own status: the committee page shows his last action as "Hearings held". The committee has not reported him. Grassley's Sept 30 statement noted he was a district judge in Arkansas since 2019. In 2019 the committee took 11 weeks from his district hearing to the vote, but that was not a rushed schedule. https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/committee-activity/hearings/nominations-09-30-2026

BOTTOM LINE: The leading outcome is most likely 1 or 2. St. John, and Domenico if still pending, are floor-ready with party-line votes. Rudofsky is unlikely to finish in November. The risks are that leadership uses the first lame-duck weeks for permitting reform, funding and a nominations package, and that thin margins create absence risk. That would leave 0. The case for 2 rests on Domenico still being on the calendar.

NOT FOUND: Any Senate cloture filing or floor announcement for Domenico or St. John in November. A Rudofsky markup date. The post-Nov 9 floor schedule. Any market or expert forecast for this question. Whether the committee page's Domenico status is stale. The congress.gov nomination page returned 403.

### UPSET CASE
**Case for an upset: the best alternative to a 0 or 1 leader is exactly 2** (Domenico and St. John both confirmed in Nov. 9–20). A 1 is the next alternative and a 0 is the downside risk. The evidence below is mine, and none of it comes from the colleague reports.

- [2026-10-13] **Domenico is confirmed still pending, which settles the open question in the colleague reports.** The Senate's own "Nominations Confirmed (Civilian)" page lists judicial confirmations in reverse order. Its newest circuit entries are Traynor (7/23), Flowers (7/22), Schwartz (7/14) and Smith (6/15). Domenico and St. John are absent. The only judicial confirmations after July are district judges Byrne (9/15), Mitchell (9/17) and Colmenero (9/23). So two circuit nominees were ripe on the floor at recess. The Judiciary Committee's "confirmed" page still shows Domenico as "Placed on Senate Executive Calendar" (07/23, Calendar No. 901). https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_confc.htm
- [2026-09-17] **Domenico was ripe for a vote in September and still wasn't taken up.** Bloomberg Law said he and Colmenero were ripe for full-Senate votes. Only district judges were processed, which is evidence of scarce floor time. That cuts against an upset. It also means the backlog is now two circuit judges, and each needs only a cloture vote plus a confirmation vote. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/midterm-crush-looming-lame-duck-pressure-judicial-nominations
- [2026-10-12] **Thune's stated priority is to get nominees done before the lame duck, which makes November more likely than the colleagues' base rate implies.** Punchbowl reported in summer that Thune wants as many judges as possible confirmed before November because lame-duck attendance is unreliable. Since the pre-recess push missed Domenico and St. John, they are the obvious first items on return. The Senate returns Nov. 9 with permitting reform as the first business, but a cloture vote on a circuit nominee needs little time. https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/judicial-blitz/
- [2026-07-23] **Circuit nominees can be moved fast when prioritised.** The Senate confirmed three circuit judges in July (Schwartz 7/14, Flowers 7/22, Traynor 7/23). Two were confirmed on consecutive days. Both Domenico (12-10) and St. John (12-10) are party-line nominees, so the 51-vote Republican majority is enough. https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/nom_confc.htm
- [2026-10-13] **Midterm results could raise the urgency.** Bloomberg Law reports polls show the Senate up for grabs. If Democrats win, the Republican majority would have only the lame duck. Bloomberg Law and Balls & Strikes both say there would be more GOP urgency to confirm nominees if Democrats prevail. That favours using the Nov. 9–20 window rather than waiting for December. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-courts-alito-plans-to-stay-even-if-democrats-win-senate
- [2026-09-08] **Rudofsky is the weak third, so 3 is the long-shot upset.** Balls & Strikes' timetable has nominees heard Sept. 30 reaching the floor Dec. 7. Rudofsky's hearing was Sept. 30, so a November confirmation would require breaking the usual sequencing. https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/trump-nominees-midterms-federal-judges/
- [2026-10-01] **A new circuit nominee, Butler, is not a November candidate.** Trump announced Todd Butler for the Fifth Circuit (Southwick's seat) on 10/1. He drew early conservative scrutiny on 10/13. He has not had a hearing and would be eighth Trump appointee on the court. His confirmation falls in December at the earliest. Southwick's seat only opens on confirmation of a successor, which is a separate matter from the November count. https://afj.org/nominee/todd-butler/
- [2026-10-13] **Butler is a risk to the leader only through an additional circuit seat.** Bloomberg Law's 10/13 piece says Butler "would be the president's eighth appointee if he and another pending nominee are confirmed". That wording counts Butler and one other pending nominee, which suggests the Fifth Circuit has only one other pending pick (St. John). It adds no extra November supply. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/trump-fifth-circuit-pick-met-with-early-conservative-scrutiny
- [2026-10-13] **The downside risk for the upset case is the single-seat vacancy supply and crowded agenda.** The colleague reports show a CR to Dec. 11, NDAA, FISA and permitting reform. There are also only about 8 session days in November. The Domenico bypass in September shows that Thune ranks district judges and executive packages ahead of a contested circuit vote. The 2020 lame duck produced only one circuit confirmation. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bidens-lame-duck-judicial-confirmation-prospects/

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest upset case is an outcome of 2 (Domenico and St. John), because both are floor-ready, party-line and were left behind only by recess timing, not by any obstacle. A 1 or 0 is still plausible if leadership spends Nov. 9–20 on permitting reform and funding. A 3 needs Rudofsky to skip the normal calendar.

NOT FOUND: Any cloture filing, Thune floor statement or schedule naming Domenico or St. John for the week of Nov. 9. A Rudofsky markup date. Whether judges can be included in a lame-duck en bloc package. Any odds from a market or analyst. I found no circuit nominee beyond Domenico, St. John, Rudofsky and Butler.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources show the outcome already decided as of today? If so, which option and by which source.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market for these options, treat its prices as a strong prior and name the specific evidence it lacks whenever you move away from it. A RELATED market is context only. If no market is listed, there is none — do not assume one.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "0": <prob>,
        "1": <prob>,
        "2": <prob>,
        "3": <prob>,
        "4": <prob>,
        "5+": <prob>
  },
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would change your leading option or move it by 10+ points if false; [] if none>"]
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).