How much in digital advertising revenues will the New York Times Company report in its Q3 2026 earnings release?

- [2026-08-05] The latest reported value is Q2 2026 digital advertising revenue of $113,961K (10-Q table). That is +20.7% against $94,422K in Q2 2025. Six-month 2026 digital advertising was $207,216K, up 25.4%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm
- [2026-08-05] The Q2 release's trailing table gives digital advertising ($M) as: Q2'25 94.4, Q3'25 98.1, Q4'25 147.2, Q1'26 93.3, Q2'26 114.0. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm
- [2026-08-05] The base for the question is Q3 2025 digital advertising of $98.1M, which was +20.3% year over year. Q3 2026 is the comparison quarter. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm
- [2026-05-06] Q1 2026 was $93.3M (the question cites $93,255K), +31.6% year over year. Growth by quarter: Q1'25 +12.4%, Q2'25 +18.7%, Q3'25 +20.3%, Q4'25 +24.9%, Q1'26 +31.6%, Q2'26 +20.7%. Growth slowed in Q2 2026 but beat the guided high-teens range. https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2026/05/Q1-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf
- [2026-08-05] Q3 2026 guidance is for digital advertising to rise "mid-to-high teens" year over year. Total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double digits. This is per secondary summaries of the release. https://247wallst.com/companies/nyt/earnings/
- [2026-08-05] Arithmetic on the $98.1M base, with my own rounding: +15% gives about $112.8M, +17% about $114.8M, +19% about $116.7M. Repeating the Q2 beat of about 2–3 points over guidance would give roughly $118–120M. For comparison, Q2 guidance was high-teens and the actual was 20.7%. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/
- [2026-08-05] Management attributed the Q2 growth to strong marketer demand and more ad supply, mainly audio and video. Display rose $10.4M and non-display rose $9.1M. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm
- [2026-10-13] The Q3 release date is not confirmed in the sources I found. Quartr lists Nov 4, 2026, TipRanks lists Nov 11 (marked "Confirmed"), and Public.com lists Nov 27. The Q3 2025 report was on Nov 5, 2025. A date of Nov 4–5 fits the question's Nov 5 resolution date. https://quartr.com/companies/the-new-york-times-company_6225

BOTTOM LINE: The base is Q3 2025 at $98.1M. Guidance of mid-to-high-teens growth implies about $113–117M, and a repeat of the recent beats would put it nearer $118–120M. The Q2 2026 level was $114.0M.
NOT FOUND: A confirmed Q3 2026 release date from the company's own announcement. A consensus estimate for Q3 2026 digital advertising revenue. Any Q3 2026 actual, since it has not been reported yet.

- [2026-08-05] Q2 2026 digital advertising was $113,961K, up 20.7% from $94,422K. Management had guided high-teens growth, so Q2 beat the guided range. Q1 2026 was $93.3M (+31.6%). H1 2026 was $207.2M (+25.4%). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm and https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-08-05] Q3 2026 guidance: digital advertising to rise "mid-to-high teens" year over year. Total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double digits. Management said it is lapping strong ad supply growth from the back half of 2025. Earnings call: Q3 2026 digital advertising up mid-to-high teens. Q3 2026 base (Q3 2025) is $98.1M. A 15–19% increase implies roughly $113M–$117M. This is my arithmetic, not a company figure. https://quartr.com/events/the-new-york-times-company-nyt-q2-2026_3PJgPbAV and https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-new-york-times-tops-q2-2026-eps-forecast-as-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4837648

- [2025-11-05] Same window last year (Q3 2025 release): digital advertising was $98.1M, "Digital advertising revenues increased 20.3 percent year-over-year primarily due to strong marketer demand and new advertising supply." Q3 2024 was $81.6M. Total advertising was $132.3M. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2025-11-05] Q3 2025 guidance was low-double-digit digital advertising growth (Zacks preview). Actual was +20.3%, a beat of roughly 8–10 points. Total advertising was guided low-to-mid single digits. Actual was +11.8%. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/assessing-york-times-company-ahead-145300831.html and https://finance.yahoo.com/news/york-times-q3-earnings-beat-131800766.html

- [2024-11-04] Q3 2024: digital advertising was $81.6M (+8.8%), against $75.0M in Q3 2023. CNBC called it the strongest growth in over two years. Total advertising was $118.4M (+1.1%). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169124000158/pressrelease09302024.htm and https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/new-york-times-nyt-q3-earnings-report.html

- [2023-11] Q3 2023 digital advertising was $75.0M. The Q4 2023 print and digital decline of -3.7% (to $107.7M) shows the series is not monotonic. Q4 2023 digital advertising fell partly because of five fewer days in the quarter. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169124000027/pressrelease12312023.htm

- [2026-08-05] Digital advertising year-over-year growth by quarter, from the company's own table: Q3'24 +8.8%, Q4'24 +9.5%, Q1'25 +12.4%, Q2'25 +18.7%, Q3'25 +20.3%, Q4'25 +24.9%, Q1'26 +31.6%, Q2'26 +20.7%. Dollar values were $81.6M, $117.9M, $70.9M, $94.4M, $98.1M, $147.2M, $93.3M and $114.0M. Growth has been at or above 18.7% for five straight quarters. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm

- [2025-08 to 2026-08] Pattern of beats against guidance: Q2 2026 guidance was high-teens and actual was 20.7%. Q3 2025 guidance was low-double-digit and actual was 20.3%. The company has been conservative, and recent quarters have exceeded the top of the guided range. The ppc.land piece reports the Q2 2026 beat, and the Yahoo/Zacks piece reports Q3 2025 guidance. I did not retrieve guidance for every quarter (Q4 2025, Q1 2026). https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2024-08-07] Q2 2024 digital advertising was $79.6M (+7.8%). The quarter-on-quarter pattern is that Q3 digital advertising was higher than Q2 in 2025 ($98.1M vs $94.4M, +3.9%) and 2024 ($81.6M vs $79.6M, +2.5%). In 2026, applying that seasonal step to Q2's $114.0M gives about $117M–$118M. That is my arithmetic. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169124000130/pressrelease06302024.htm

- [2026-08-05] Consensus for digital advertising: I found no published consensus. EPS consensus is about $0.64 for Q3 2026 (TipRanks), against $0.59 a year earlier. NYT has beaten consensus EPS for five straight quarters, and Q2 2026 adjusted EPS was $0.69 against $0.67 expected. Q2 2026 revenue was $762.5M against $751.9M expected. https://247wallst.com/companies/nyt/earnings/ and https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings

- [2026-10-13] Release date: Quartr and MarketBeat list an estimated Nov 4, 2026 release. TipRanks lists Nov 11 (labelled confirmed). The question resolves Nov 5. NYT has historically reported on the first Wednesday of November (Nov 5, 2025; Nov 4, 2024). I found no company announcement, so the date is unconfirmed. https://quartr.com/companies/the-new-york-times-company_6225 and https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings

- [2026-08-05] Reporting caveat: TheWrap cited Q2 2026 digital advertising as $111.4M. This conflicts with the SEC filing's $113,961K and appears to be an error. The SEC release is the resolution-relevant source. https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/new-york-times-q2-2026-earnings/

BOTTOM LINE: Guidance implies about $113M–$117M for Q3 2026 (mid-to-high-teens growth on $98.1M). NYT has beaten the top of its digital advertising guidance in recent quarters, by about 2–10 points. A 20% outcome would be about $118M, and a typical Q2-to-Q3 seasonal step also points to about $117M–$118M. Q3 2025 growth (+20.3%) is a tougher comparison than earlier periods.

NOT FOUND: Published analyst consensus for Q3 2026 digital advertising revenue. A company-confirmed Q3 2026 release date. Guidance figures for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 (needed for a full beat history). Q3 2023 guidance versus actual.

- [2025-11-05] The exact Q3 2025 base is $98,111K (Q3 2024: $81,564K). Rounded percentages on that base give: +15% = $112.8M; +17% = $114.8M; +19% = $116.8M; +20.7% (the Q2 2026 rate) = $118.4M; +25% = $122.6M. The release also shows Q4 2025 was guided with the same "mid-to-high-teens" digital ad wording as Q3 2026. Q4 2025 actual was +24.9% (per the earlier Q2 report's table). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2026-08-05] Driver 1, advertiser demand (controlled by marketers; the Times controls pricing and products). On the Q2 call, management said digital ad revenue exceeded the guidance range. It said marketer demand for its "high-performing ad products" beat expectations, and that growth was broad across news, games and sports. The CEO said campaigns renew because the ads perform. Management also called the Q3 outlook "healthy demand across the portfolio". https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-08-05] Driver 2, ad supply and a tougher comparison (controlled by the Times). The CEO reiterated the company is "lapping strong growth in supply" from the back half of 2025. Q3 2025 grew +20.3% on "new advertising supply", so the mid-to-high-teens guide is partly a comparison effect. In the Q&A, an analyst referred to "more difficult ad comps … over the next several quarters". https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-08-05] Driver 3, new sales capacity and video (controlled by the Times). A new middle-market ad sales team was staffed in 2026. The CEO said video plays a "relatively minor role" in ad growth so far, so Q3 upside from video is unlikely to be large. The CFO tied the cost overrun to ad COGS and incentive pay linked to ad outperformance, which confirms the Q2 beat was real revenue. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-05-06] Guidance-versus-actual history. For Q1 2026, the CFO had guided digital ad growth to the "high-teens to low-20%" range, and the actual was +31.6%. For Q2 2026 the guide was high-teens and the actual was +20.7%. For Q4 2025 the guide was mid-to-high-teens and the actual was +24.9%. Beats over the top of the range were roughly 1–10 points. Q1 guidance is from a MarketBeat call summary (a secondary source). The Q3 2026 guide of mid-to-high-teens is the same wording as Q4 2025, and it follows a quarter that beat. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/new-york-times-q4-earnings-call-highlights-2026-02-05/?.tsrc=rss

- [2026-08-05] Driver 4, traffic from big platforms (not controlled by the Times). The CEO said platform moves keep reducing referral traffic to publishers. She said the Times is "not immune", though Q2 ad results still beat. This is a downside risk to impressions, but the company is shifting toward direct engagement through apps and video. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-09-24] New idiosyncratic risk: a shareholder lawsuit alleging biased Israel-Hamas coverage was filed Sept 23, and the stock fell as much as 11.9% that week. The Times denies the claims. No evidence of advertiser pullbacks was reported. A Q3 revenue effect is unlikely, since the quarter ended Sept 30 and ad deals are booked in advance. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/24/why-the-new-york-times-company-plunged-this-week/

- [2026-10-13] Release timing (a resolution-mechanics factor). The company has not announced its Q3 date; I found no 8-K or press release yet. MarketBeat estimates Nov 4 "based on past reporting schedules". TipRanks labels Nov 11 "Confirmed" and Nov 4 is the pattern from 2024–2025. The Q1, Q2 and Q4 2025 releases each came on a Wednesday, with an 8:00 a.m. ET call. If the company reports Nov 11, the report would fall after the Nov 5 resolution date. The sequence needed is a company date announcement in October, then an 8-K and release at 7:00 a.m. ET on the day, then the figure in the "Digital advertising revenues" line of the footnote (b) table, reported in thousands. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NYT/earnings/

- [2026-10-13] The reported number will come from footnote (b) of the release's financial statements, in thousands, and the question's example uses that format ($93,255,000 for Q1). Digital ad revenue is reported to the nearest thousand, so the exact figure is not rounded. The Q3 2025 figure in the same table is $98,111K. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2026-08-05] Q3 total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double-digit growth. Print advertising was $35.2M in Q2, down 11.1%. That implies the digital share of total advertising is rising, which is consistent with digital growth well above the total. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-10-13] Mechanism for the number: Q3 2026 = $98.1M × (1 + g). The guide implies g of about 15–19%, and beats of 2+ points over the top of the range have been the norm. The Q2 2026 digital ad figure ($114.0M) is the floor-ish reference. Sequential Q2-to-Q3 seasonality was +3.9% in 2025, which would give about $118.4M from Q2's $114.0M. Both of these are my own arithmetic.

BOTTOM LINE: Guidance and the comparison base ($98,111K) set the range at about $113–117M. A repeat of the recent beat pattern and the Q2-to-Q3 seasonal step would put the figure nearer $117–121M. The main swing factors are the size of the beat against guidance and whether the release lands by Nov 5.

NOT FOUND: A company-confirmed Q3 2026 release date. A published analyst consensus for Q3 digital advertising revenue. Any Q3 2026 industry data showing advertiser pullbacks at the Times. Q1 2026 guidance from a primary source (I only found a secondary call summary).

- [2026-08-05] Company guidance for Q3 2026 is the main official projection. Digital advertising revenues are expected to rise "mid to high teens" year over year. Total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double digits. Digital-only subscriptions are guided to +12–15%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm (the guidance wording is confirmed via ppc.land and the Benzinga call transcript; I could not see the outlook section of the 8-K itself because it was truncated in the fetch.)
- [2026-08-05] The base period is Q3 2025 digital advertising of $98.1M (+20.3% y/y). Q2 2026 was $114.0M (+20.7%), Q1 2026 was $93.3M (+31.6%) and Q4 2025 was $147.2M (+24.9%). Source: the 8-K quarterly table. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm
- [2026-10-13] My arithmetic, not a published forecast: "mid-to-high teens" is roughly +15% to +19%. On the $98.1M base that implies about $112.8M to $116.7M, with a midpoint near $114.8M (+17%). The $98.1M base is rounded, so the range carries about ±$0.1M of uncertainty.
- [2026-08-05] Guidance track record: Q2 was guided to "high-teens" digital ad growth and came in at 20.7%, above the range. Management said marketer demand exceeded expectations. Q2 total advertising also beat, at +11.3% against a guide of high single digits. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/
- [2025-11-05] Earlier guidance record: Q3 2025 total advertising was guided to low-to-mid-single digits and came in at +11.8%. Digital advertising came in at +20.3% ($98.1M). Q4 2025 was then guided to mid-to-high-teens digital growth and delivered +24.9%. The pattern is a repeated beat of digital ad guidance, though the Q4 and Q3 2026 guide wordings are identical. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/york-times-q3-earnings-beat-131800766.html
- [2026-08-05] Digital ad growth over the last five quarters was 18.7%, 20.3%, 24.9%, 31.6% and 20.7%. The Q3 guide is a deceleration against a harder comparison. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/
- [2026-10-13] Yahoo Finance consensus for Q3 2026 total revenue is $766.87M from 6 analysts (low $763M, high $773.45M). Consensus EPS is $0.65, down from $0.67 seven days earlier. There is no public line-item consensus for digital advertising. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NYT/analysis/
- [2026-08-05] Analyst estimates have been beaten often. Adjusted EPS beat the estimate in each of the last four quarters: Q3 2025 $0.59 vs $0.53, Q4 2025 $0.89 vs $0.88, Q1 2026 $0.61 vs $0.47, Q2 2026 $0.69 vs about $0.66–0.67. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings
- [2026-08-05] Management said Q2 advertising growth was broad across news, games and sports. Video has so far played only a minor role. A new middle-market ad sales team launched in 2026. The company is also dealing with falling platform referral traffic. https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/york-times-q2-earnings-call-220352118.html
- [2026-10-09] Release timing is unconfirmed. TipRanks, Stock Events and ad-hoc-news list Nov 11, 2026. Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat list Nov 4, and Public.com lists Nov 27. The Q3 release was Nov 5 in 2025 and Nov 4 in 2024. An 11 Nov release would fall after the Nov 5 resolution date. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NYT/
- [2026-08-05] Data-quality warning: TheWrap's article gave $111.4M for Q2 digital advertising, which conflicts with the 8-K's $114.0M ($113,961K). Use the 8-K figure. https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/new-york-times-q2-2026-earnings/
- Prediction markets and community forecasts: I found none for this quantity.

BOTTOM LINE: Official guidance of mid-to-high-teens growth on the $98.1M base implies roughly $113–117M. The company has beaten its digital ad guidance in the last several quarters, so the upper end of the range or above is plausible. The release date is uncertain (Nov 4 vs Nov 11), and a date after Nov 5 would matter for resolution.

NOT FOUND: A published analyst consensus for Q3 2026 digital advertising revenue specifically. Any Polymarket, Metaculus or Kalshi market on this. The company's confirmed Q3 2026 release date. The exact Q3 2025 digital advertising figure in thousands.

- [2026-08-05] Q2 guidance was "high teens" and the actual was 20.7%. Q1 2026 guidance was also "high teens" (see the AMO comparison of prior-quarter guides), and Q1 actual was +31.6%. So Q1 beat the guided band by roughly 12 points and Q2 by roughly 2. The Q3 guide of mid-to-high teens is a wording step-down, and Q4 2025 used the same wording and delivered +24.9%. Beats of this size mean the high case is about +20–25%, or $118–123M on the $98.1M base. That range is my arithmetic. https://www.amediaoperator.com/news/new-york-times-q2-2026-shares-tumble-costs-video-ads/
- [2026-08-05] Management said Q2 marketer demand for its high-performing ad products exceeded expectations. Growth was broad across news, games and sports, with "real scale of engagement". Per the Benzinga call transcript (a search snippet only; the page returned 403 when fetched). https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62237709/full-transcript-new-york-times-q2-2026-earnings-call
- [2026-08-05] Mechanism for the high case: The Athletic set audience records during World Cup coverage, which added high-engagement ad inventory. World Cup 2026 ran June 11 – July 19, so part of the tournament fell in Q3. A new middle-market ad sales team has been staffed to reach previously underserved advertisers. Both are upside to the Q3 supply and demand picture, per BigGo's summary of the call. https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_NYT_2026-08-05
- [2026-08-05] Mechanism against the high case: management cautioned it is lapping strong supply growth from last year's back half. Platform referral traffic is declining. Video monetisation is still early. These factors explain the guide's deceleration. https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_NYT_2026-08-05
- [2026-09-xx] Market backdrop: Sensor Tower puts US digital ad spend at $201B for Aug 2025–Jul 2026, up 15% year on year. IAB data show US digital ad growth accelerated through 2025, from 12.2% in Q1 to 14.9% in Q3. The industry is therefore growing at about the same pace as NYT's guide, which does not argue for NYT falling short. https://optidigital.com/resources/press-release/digital-advertising-trends-publishers-2026/ and https://axis-intelligence.com/digital-advertising-statistics/
- [2026-09] Political spending for the midterms (about $11B, per Improvado) may constrain inventory for commercial advertisers in Q3 and Q4. This is a modest headwind to the high case, from a secondary source. https://improvado.io/blog/ads-spend-report-by-industry
- [2026-10-13] Consensus total revenue ($766.9M per the earlier Yahoo figure) versus Q3 2025 total revenue of $700.8M (MarketBeat history) implies about +9.4%. The Q2 beat on revenue was about $10M against consensus, and the Q3 2025 beat was about $9M. A similar beat on advertising alone would be the high-case route. MarketBeat's Q3 2025 revenue estimate of $692.0M versus the $700.8M actual is the source for that beat. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NYT/earnings/
- [2026-10-13] Release date risk: Quartr and MarketBeat list a Nov 4 estimate. TipRanks labels Nov 11 "Confirmed", but its own page says the date is estimated from past schedules, so the label is not reliable. No company announcement was found. Shutterstock (Oct 12) and others announced Nov 4–5 dates, but NYT is not among them. A Nov 11 release would fall after the Nov 5 resolution date. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings
- [2026-08-05] Seasonal arithmetic for the high case: Q3 has run 2.5–3.9% above Q2 in the last two years. In 2023, Q3 digital advertising was +6.7% year on year. A step of 5% or more over Q2's $114.0M would give about $120M or higher. This is my own arithmetic from the Q2 and Q3 figures already given above. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is $118–123M, a repeat of the 2–10 point beats NYT has delivered against its digital advertising guidance. Signals for it are World Cup inventory spillover, the new middle-market sales team and industry growth around 15%. Lapping strong supply growth, falling referral traffic and midterm political crowd-out limit it.

NOT FOUND: A company-confirmed Q3 2026 release date. A line-item consensus for Q3 digital advertising. Any Q3 2026 actual. A readable full transcript, because Benzinga returned 403. Any NYT mid-quarter commentary from the Sept 9 Citi conference on ad trends.

- [2026-08-05] Low-case mechanism: management named the Q3 comparison base as harder. On the Q2 call, the CEO said the company is "lapping strong growth in supply" from the back half of 2025. The ppc.land write-up reads the guide as a deliberate step down from the 20.7% just delivered. Q3 2025 also had the supply expansion built into its own +20.3% (up from +18.7% in Q2 2025). So the 2-point seasonal-step argument from the earlier reports could overstate Q3. If Q3 growth fell to 15%, revenue would be about $112.8M, slightly below Q2's $114.0M. That would be a sequential decline, the opposite of the 2024 and 2025 pattern. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-08-05] The Q2 beat was explicitly demand-driven ("marketer demand ... exceeded our expectations"). It also tied to a World Cup quarter (June 2026), which management cited for marketing spend. The World Cup sat in Q2, and Q3 has no comparable event, which is a possible source of fade. Management gave no breakdown of volume versus price. This is my inference, not a company statement. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-08-05] CEO said platform traffic to publishers keeps falling and "The Times isn't immune." Q2 net digital subscriber additions slowed to 280k from 310k in Q1. Video is only a "minor role" in ad revenue so far. Fewer visits could limit ad supply in Q3, though the company has so far grown ad revenue despite this. https://www.niemanlab.org/2026/08/even-the-new-york-times-isnt-immune-to-declining-search-traffic-one-reason-its-leaning-into-video/

- [2026-08-05] Q2 cost overshoot (adjusted costs +10.0% vs a guide of 8–9%) came from incentive pay tied to the ad beat. This shows the guide was set conservatively. It also means the low scenario needs a real demand miss, not just a normal outcome. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2025-11-05] The Q3 2025 base is confirmed on the company's own table as $98.1M. The release attributes the +20.3% to "strong marketer demand and new advertising supply". The Q4 2024 to Q3 2025 growth sequence (9.5%, 12.4%, 18.7%, 20.3%) shows the supply and demand tailwinds built through 2025, which is why the H2 2026 comparisons are harder. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2026-08-05] Floor arithmetic (mine). The bottom of "mid-teens" is +14%, about $111.8M. +13% is about $110.9M. Because the company has beaten its digital ad guide in each quarter I checked, a result below $112M would be a first miss. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-09-09] At Citi's TMT conference, management again attributed the Q3 slowdown to prior-year mix effects, with the long-term trajectory "positive". The summary I saw was about subscriptions, and I found no ad-specific warning. Quartr lists the Q3 report for Nov 4. https://quartr.com/companies/the-new-york-times-company_6225

- [2026-09/10] Macro backdrop is not weak. The IAB raised its 2026 US ad growth forecast to +12.3% in its September update (reported secondhand). Sensor Tower puts the 12 months to July 2026 at +15%. The same summary notes that about $11B of midterm political spending could crowd out commercial inventory in Q3 and Q4. Political crowd-out is a modest downside risk for a news publisher in October. This comes from a low-quality secondary source. https://www.webtonic.io/blog/online-advertising-statistics

- [2026-10-13] Release timing risk: TipRanks says Nov 11 "(Confirmed)", Yahoo and Quartr say Nov 4, and Public.com says Nov 27. The release for Q2 was on the first Wednesday of the month, and the Q3 2025 release was Nov 5, 2025. If the release came after Nov 5, the question could resolve without a figure inside the window. I did not find a company announcement. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings

BOTTOM LINE: The low scenario is a result in the high-$111M to $113M range (about +14–15%). It would need the supply lap and the lack of a World Cup-style event to pull growth to the low end of the guide, and the company has beaten its guide in recent quarters. Signals would be Q3 commentary on a demand slowdown, weaker midterm-season ad pricing, and a falling Q2-to-Q3 sequential change.

NOT FOUND: Any published consensus for Q3 digital advertising revenue. A company-confirmed Q3 release date. Any ad-specific warning from the Sept 9 Citi conference. Third-party data on NYT ad impressions or pricing in July to September 2026.

10 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 8 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-12] Applied Digital and Wolfspeed: Divergent Market Performance Amid AI Infrastructure Boom
Foreign Policy Journal — https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/10/12/applied-digital-nasdaq-apld-holds-36-billion-in-contracts-while-wolfspeed-nyse-wolf-wins-the-stock-market-battle/
  - As of October 12, 2026, a significant divergence exists in the AI infrastructure sector between Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) and Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF).
  - While Applied Digital holds approximately $36 billion in contracted revenue under 15-year lease agreements across five campuses with 1.41 gigawatts of reserved IT capacity as of August 31, 2026, its stock is down 15.8% year-to-date.
  - In contrast, Wolfspeed, which manufactures power semiconductors for these facilities, has surged 61.7% year-to-date.
  - Applied Digital's CEO, Wes Cummins, noted that fiscal Q1 2027 revenue reached $341.88 million, far exceeding the $124.57 million analyst estimate, though $183.5 million of this was one-time tenant fit-out work.
  - Despite this beat, the company remains unprofitable with trailing-12-month earnings per share of minus $1.65, $6.4 billion in debt, and $2.07 billion in quarterly capital spending.
  - Its immediate challenge is bringing over 600 megawatts into service within 12 months for projects including Polaris Forge 3 and Delta Forge 1 and 2.
  - Conversely, Wolfspeed emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September 2025 and saw AI data center revenue more than double in fiscal 2026.
  - However, its non-GAAP gross margin remains deeply negative at minus 19.9%, with management projecting a gross-margin breakeven point near an '800 million annual run rate.' Wolfspeed's Materials Products division fell to $43.3 million from $78.4 million as it transitions to 200 mm wafers.
  - Both companies remain cash-consuming, with investors advised to wait at least another quarter for clearer financial pictures.

[2026-10-12] Onto Innovation Reports Record Q2 2026 Results, Raises Full-Year Outlook
Benzinga — https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62296714/innovation-q2-2026-earnings-call-complete-transcript
  - On October 12, 2026, Onto Innovation (NYSE: ONTO) reported record Q2 2026 financial results during an earnings call, with revenue reaching $343 million, up 18% sequentially and 35% year-over-year.
  - CEO Michael Plisinski and CFO Brian Roberts highlighted that advanced nodes grew 50% quarter-over-quarter to approximately $120 million, while the inspection business, dominated by Dragonfly systems, grew 30%.
  - The company raised its second-half revenue growth outlook to 25% or more over the first half, with Q4 revenue expected to exceed Q3.
  - Advanced packaging growth is now projected to reach approximately 80% for the year, driven by strong demand from HBM manufacturers and OSAT partners for AI applications.
  - The company secured orders totaling over $200 million for Dragonfly technology from a single OSAT partner, with the majority of deliveries scheduled for 2027.
  - Additionally, Onto Innovation received over $50 million in orders for silicon photonics, with an estimated addressable market of over $500 million by 2030.
  - The company achieved a gross margin of 57% and an operating margin of 30%, benefiting from extended factories in Asia.
  - Future guidance includes Q3 revenue between $380 million and $400 million, with operating margins expected to increase to 32% in Q3 and 33% or higher in Q4.
  - Onto Innovation maintains nearly $1.9 billion in cash and short-term investments, having recently completed a $1.5 billion convertible debt offering.
  - The company also announced a partnership with Rigaku to develop new X-ray process control solutions for semiconductor applications.

[2026-10-12] Northland Upgrades C3.ai to Outperform on New C3 Code Platform Amid Mixed Financial Results
Investing.com Brasil — https://br.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/northland-eleva-recomendacao-da-c3ai-com-nova-plataforma-de-desenvolvimento-93CH-2089043
  - On Monday, October 12, 2026, Northland upgraded its recommendation for C3.ai (NYSE: AI) from 'Market Perform' to 'Outperform' and raised its price target from US$ 10 to US$ 16.
  - The stock is currently trading at US$ 11.53, with a market capitalization of US$ 1.85 billion, following a 39% return over the last six months.
  - Analyst Mike Latimore cited the company's new 'C3 Code' platform as a key growth driver, stating it can reduce the development time for agentic AI applications from months to days by allowing users to build apps via natural language with autonomous agents.
  - This platform leverages 15 years of C3.ai's infrastructure to ensure reliability.
  - Additionally, C3.ai launched an 'Accelerator' marketing program; the first event gathered 110 attendees and 46 companies, demonstrating the creation of ready-to-use corporate AI applications in days.
  - Following this success, three more events were added.
  - The company's founder and CEO returned in May 2026 after a period of challenges, including the loss of a major client and management changes.
  - In recent financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, C3.ai reported revenue of US$ 52.4 million, a 25% decline year-over-year, which fell within the company's guidance range of US$ 50.0 million to US$ 54.0 million and slightly exceeded the market estimate of US$ 52.1 million.
  - The non-GAAP loss per share (LPA) was negative US$ 0.20, beating the consensus of negative US$ 0.26.
  - Other firms provided mixed views: Yorkville Ives initiated coverage with an 'In Line' rating and a US$ 12.50 target, noting the completion of a 2026 tax restructuring; Needham maintained a 'Hold' rating citing the revenue drop; and JMP Securities reiterated a 'Market Perform' rating after visiting the headquarters, expressing concerns over revenue projections.

[2026-10-12] Vtex Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Misses Expectations Amid Strong Profitability and Cash Flow Growth
Benzinga — https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62294727/transcript-vtex-q2-2026-earnings-conference-call
  - Vtex (NYSE: VTEX) released its Q2 2026 financial results on Thursday, October 12, 2026, reporting that revenue fell short of internal expectations due to challenging macroeconomic conditions in Brazil and Argentina, though profitability and cash flow showed strong performance.
  - According to the company, non-GAAP operating income grew 62% year-over-year, reaching $13.8 million with a margin of 21.4%.
  - GMV reached $5.7 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year growth in US dollars and 7% on an FX-neutral basis.
  - Subscription revenue reached $63.8 million, growing 11% in US dollars but only 1.3% on an FX-neutral basis, driven by a customer mix shift toward larger enterprise accounts which carry lower take rates.
  - The company's four growth drivers—Global Expansion, B2B, Ads, and AI Collective—grew 20% on an FX-neutral basis and now represent 18% of subscription revenue.
  - Mariano Gomide de Faria, Founder and co-CEO, stated that the macro environment remained challenging with high interest rates in Brazil and softer consumer demand in Argentina, but the company is focused on its AI-native transformation.
  - Ricardo Camata Sodre, CFO, noted that free cash flow for the quarter was $12.7 million, growing 79% year-over-year.
  - The company repurchased 6.2 million Class A common shares at an average price of $3.76 per share for a total cost of $23.2 million.
  - Management updated its outlook for Q3 2026, targeting approximately flat FX-neutral subscription revenue growth and a non-GAAP operating margin in the low 20s.

[2026-10-12] IT Earnings and Market Outlook: Penguin Solutions, Applied Digital, Richardson Electronics Report Q4/Q1 Results Amid US and AI Policy Shifts
it.donga.com — https://it.donga.com/109680/
  - On October 12, 2026, IT Donga reported on key IT company earnings and market outlooks for the first week of October 2026.
  - Penguin Solutions (NASDAQ: PENG) reported Q4 fiscal 2026 total revenue of $566.69 million, an 18.4% increase from the previous quarter, driven by AI data center demand which accounted for 78% of revenue.
  - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.00.
  - The company forecast fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.43 billion, a 40% increase.
  - Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) announced Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $341.9 million, up 32.2%, led by a 29.4% rise in its high-performance computing hosting segment, though it reported a net loss of $22.1 million and $2.07 billion in capital expenditures.
  - Richardson Electronics (NASDAQ: RELL) posted Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $64.9 million, a 1.9% quarterly decline but an 18.9% year-over-year increase, with gross margin improving to 34.6% due to tariff refunds.
  - On October 8, the White House announced the 'Genesis Mission,' a $2.4 billion initiative supported by tech giants including NVIDIA ($1 billion), AMD ($500 million), OpenAI, and Google, to provide computing resources for federal scientific research.
  - Meanwhile, Reuters reported on October 9 that China's Communist Party and State Council issued new guidelines to boost AI infrastructure and industrial adoption.
  - The article notes market concerns regarding rising US 10-year Treasury yields, which hit 5.237% on October 9, increasing borrowing costs for capital-intensive AI infrastructure projects.

[2026-10-09] Financial Comparison: Charter Communications vs. New York Times (analysis)
transcriptdaily.com — https://transcriptdaily.com/2026/10/09/reviewing-charter-communications-nasdaqchtr-and-new-york-times-nysenyt.html
  - Published on October 09, 2026, by Transcript Daily, this analysis compares Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) and The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT) across 14 financial and operational factors.
  - According to MarketBeat.com data, Charter Communications has a beta of 0.7, making it 30% less volatile than the S&P 500, while The New York Times has a beta of 0.93, making it 7% less volatile.
  - Analyst recommendations show Charter with a rating score of 1.91 (7 Sell, 10 Hold, 5 Buy, 0 Strong Buy) and The New York Times with a score of 2.64 (0 Sell, 5 Hold, 5 Buy, 1 Strong Buy).
  - In terms of valuation, Charter reported $54.77 billion in gross revenue and $4.99 billion in net income, trading at a Price/Earnings ratio of 2.85, whereas The New York Times reported $2.82 billion in revenue and $343.98 million in net income, trading at a P/E ratio of 27.77.
  - The article notes that while Charter has higher revenue and earnings, The New York Times is more profitable on a margin basis, with a 13.19% net margin compared to Charter's 9.05%.
  - Institutional ownership is high for both, with 81.8% of Charter shares and 95.4% of New York Times shares held by institutions.
  - The summary concludes that The New York Times beats Charter Communications on 9 of the 14 factors compared.

[2026-08-12] NYT Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Grows 11.2% to $762.5M as Digital Subscriptions and Ad Revenue Surge
The Motley Fool — https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/
  - The New York Times Company (NYT) reported second quarter 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, with Total Revenue reaching $762.5 million, an 11.2% increase driven by strong performance across digital subscriptions and advertising.
  - Digital-only Subscription Revenue grew 16.4% to $407.9 million, supported by 280,000 net new subscribers, bringing the digital-only base to 12.8 million and raising the Digital-only ARPU to $9.94.
  - Digital Advertising Revenue rose 20.7% to $114.0 million, exceeding management expectations due to strong marketer demand.
  - Total Advertising Revenue increased 11.3% to $149.1 million.
  - Adjusted Operating Profit (AOP) grew 16.1% to $155.3 million, with the AOP Margin expanding to 20.4%.
  - Adjusted Diluted EPS was $0.69, a 19.0% increase.
  - The company reported $265.7 million in Free Cash Flow for the first half of 2026 and returned $160.8 million to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends.
  - CEO Meredith Kopit Levien highlighted the company's resilience against headwinds from big tech companies reducing publisher traffic, citing four enduring advantages including original independent reporting and a multi-revenue stream model.
  - The Athletic reached its largest audience ever during the World Cup.
  - Management provided Q3 guidance projecting 12-15% growth in Digital-only Subscription Revenue and mid-to-high teens growth in Digital Advertising Revenue.

[2026-08-07] NYT Q2 2026 Earnings: Digital Revenue Surges as Subscriber Growth Moderates
NASDAQ Stock Market — https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nyt-earnings-show-digital-growth-subscriber-momentum-moderates
  - The New York Times Company (NYT) reported second-quarter 2026 results showing robust digital growth, with total revenue rising 11.2% year over year to $762.5 million and adjusted operating profit climbing 16.1% to $155.3 million.
  - Digital-only subscription revenues increased 16.4% to $407.9 million, while digital advertising revenues surged 20.7% to $114 million.
  - Despite these gains, subscriber momentum moderated; digital-only net additions fell to 280,000 in Q2 from 310,000 in Q1, down from 460,000 in Q4 2025.
  - The company ended the quarter with 13.35 million total subscribers (12.80 million digital-only), aiming for a milestone of 15 million.
  - To offset slower growth, digital-only average revenue per user rose 3.1% to $9.94.
  - The company is investing in video production and a multi-product strategy (News, The Athletic, Cooking, Games, Wirecutter) to deepen engagement.
  - Management expects third-quarter digital advertising revenues to grow in the mid-to-high teens, though adjusted operating costs are projected to rise 8-9% in Q3.
  - According to Zacks Investment Research, which published the analysis on August 07, 2026, NYT holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) despite having A grades in Growth and Momentum.

[2026-08-06] New York Times Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Estimates Driven by Digital Subscription and Ad Growth
Zacks Investment Research — https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2970148/the-new-york-times-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-as-digital-ads-rise
  - The New York Times Company (NYT) reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 69 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents by 2.99%, while year-over-year adjusted earnings increased 19% from 58 cents.
  - Quarterly revenues rose 11.2% to $762.5 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $748 million by 1.94%.
  - This performance was driven by a subscription-first strategy, with total subscription revenues up 11.7% to $537.9 million; digital-only subscription revenues grew 16.4% to $407.9 million, while print subscription revenues declined 0.8% to $130 million.
  - The company ended the quarter with approximately 13.35 million total subscribers, including 12.80 million digital-only subscribers, adding 280,000 net digital-only subscribers in the quarter.
  - Digital-only average revenue per user (ARPU) increased 3.1% to $9.94.
  - Digital advertising revenues jumped 20.7% to $114 million, while print advertising revenues fell 11.1% to $35.2 million.
  - Adjusted operating profit rose 16.1% to $155.3 million, with an operating margin expanding to 20.4%.
  - The company remains debt-free with $1.22 billion in cash and marketable securities as of the quarter's end, having repurchased 473,691 shares for $35.4 million.
  - Management projects third-quarter digital-only subscription revenue growth of 12-15% and total subscription revenue growth of 9-11%.

[2026-08-05] New York Times Shares Drop 6% Despite Beating Earnings Expectations
Investing.com Brasil — https://br.investing.com/news/earnings/acoes-do-new-york-times-caem-6-apesar-de-resultados-acima-do-esperado-93CH-2027086
  - Shares of The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) fell 6% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, despite the company reporting second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations.
  - According to Investing.com, the media company posted an adjusted earnings per share of $0.69, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.67, while total revenue reached $762.5 million against a consensus of $752.1 million.
  - Subscription revenue totaled $537.9 million (estimate: $532.4 million), with digital subscriptions at 12.80 million (estimate: 12.72 million) and print subscriptions at 550,000 (estimate: 547,801).
  - Digital advertising revenue was $114.0 million (estimate: $112.4 million), and print advertising revenue was $35.2 million (estimate: $34.3 million), bringing total advertising revenue to $149.1 million.
  - Adjusted operating profit was $155.3 million, beating the estimate of $151.9 million.
  - Despite these positive figures across all key metrics, the stock decline signals that investors harbor concerns beyond the quarterly results.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The Q3 2026 results haven't been released yet. Today is October 13, 2026, and the newest release is the Q2 2026 one dated August 5, 2026. It shows digital advertising revenues of $114.0M in Q2 2026, $93.3M in Q1 2026, and $98.1M in Q3 2025, which is the year-ago comparison quarter. For Q3 2026, the company guided digital advertising growth in the 'mid-to-high teens' year over year. On the $98.1M base, that works out to about $112M–$117M.
  Last updated: 2026-08-05 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: Sources disagree on when the Q3 2026 release comes out. Yahoo and Quartr put it around November 4, 2026, TipRanks lists November 11, 2026 as 'Confirmed', and Public.com says November 27. The resolution value will be the full-dollar figure in the release tables; for comparison, the fine print gives Q1 as $93,255,000. Several reports say Q2 digital advertising (+20.7%) beat the company's own guidance, and management warned that Q3 is up against strong ad-supply growth from the second half of 2025. The guidance figures came from secondary reports, not from the release text itself, because that part was cut off when I fetched it.
  Fetched: fetch: https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2026/05/Q1-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/business/media/new-york-times-earnings-q2.html (HTTP 403)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2026/08/Q2-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm (HTTP 200)

### earnings_data (SUCCESS)
Company financial data:
  NYT: Price=$66.08 | MCap=? | Revenue=?

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
# NYT digital advertising: Q2 2026 results and Q3 2026 outlook, plus Q3 2025 results

## 1. Q2 2026 digital advertising results and the Q3 2026 outlook

**Key facts**
- **Reporting date:** 
The company presented its second-quarter 2026 results on August 5, 2026.

- **Q2 2026 results:** 
Total advertising revenues rose 11.3% to $149.1 million from $134.0 million in Q2 2025. Digital advertising revenues rose 20.7% to $114.0 million.

- **Print advertising:** 
Print advertising was $35.2 million, down 11.1% year over year.

- **Why digital ads grew:** 
The company cited strong marketer demand and growth in advertising supply.

- **Q3 2026 outlook:** The company did not give a single percentage. 
It expects digital advertising revenue to rise in the mid- to high-teens percentage range. It expects total advertising revenue to rise in the high single digits to low double digits.

- **Other Q3 guidance:** 
Digital-only subscription revenues are expected to rise 12%–15% and total subscription revenues 9%–11%. Affiliate, licensing and other revenues are expected to grow low- to mid-single digits. Adjusted operating costs are expected to rise 8%–9%.

- **Next report:** 
TipRanks lists the Q3 2026 report for Nov 11, 2026.


**Sources**
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm (10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026)
- https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/new-york-times-q2-2026-slides-digital-growth-drives-profit-beat-93CH-4837703
- https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-new-york-times-tops-q2-2026-eps-forecast-as-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4837648
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings/q2-2026-report

## 2. Q3 2025 digital advertising results (earnings release)

**Key facts**
- **Release date:** 
The release is dated November 5, 2025.

- **Digital advertising:** 
Digital advertising revenues increased 20.3% year over year, primarily due to strong marketer demand and new advertising supply.
 
That was $98.1 million, up from $81.6 million in Q3 2024.

- **Total advertising:** 
Total advertising revenues rose 11.8% to $132.3 million. Print advertising fell 7.1% to $34.2 million.

- **Wider results:** 
Total revenues rose 9.5% to $700.8 million.
 
The company added about 460,000 net digital-only subscribers, bringing total subscribers to 12.33 million.

- **Versus guidance:** Before the report, 
management had anticipated low-double-digit growth in digital advertising revenues.
 The actual 20.3% was well above that.
- **Why it matters for 2026:** The Q3 2025 base is the comparison for the Q3 2026 guidance above.

**Sources**
- https://s23.q4cdn.com/152113917/files/doc_news/2025/11/05/B/Q3-2025-Earnings-Release-Final-For-Distribution-WURCS9BZX.pdf (official release)
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000126/nyt-20250930.htm (10-Q)
- https://ppc.land/new-york-times-adds-460-000-subscribers-in-q3-2025-earnings/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asse

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
How much in digital advertising revenues will the New York Times Company report in its Q3 2026 earnings release?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
NY Times August 2026: [The New York Times’s Revenue Rises 11% as Costs Increase](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/business/media/new-york-times-earnings-q2.html)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "58f0e42934f4cbde", "sheet_id": "16"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the amount of digital advertising reported by the New York Times Company for the 3rd quarter of 2026.

## Fine Print
For example, for Q1 2026, the amount of digital advertising revenues [was reported](https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2026/05/Q1-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf) as $93,255,000

## Range
The question's displayed range is [110000000, 125000000] (units: $).
The LOWER bound is OPEN: outcomes below 110000000 are possible and resolve as "below range".
The UPPER bound is OPEN: outcomes above 125000000 are possible and resolve as "above range".
Where a bound is open, your percentiles MAY lie outside the displayed range — the range is where the question author expects most of the mass, not a constraint on the answer. Do not compress your distribution to fit inside it.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The Q3 2026 results haven't been released yet. Today is October 13, 2026, and the newest release is the Q2 2026 one dated August 5, 2026. It shows digital advertising revenues of $114.0M in Q2 2026, $93.3M in Q1 2026, and $98.1M in Q3 2025, which is the year-ago comparison quarter. For Q3 2026, the company guided digital advertising growth in the 'mid-to-high teens' year over year. On the $98.1M base, that works out to about $112M–$117M.
  Last updated: 2026-08-05 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: Sources disagree on when the Q3 2026 release comes out. Yahoo and Quartr put it around November 4, 2026, TipRanks lists November 11, 2026 as 'Confirmed', and Public.com says November 27. The resolution value will be the full-dollar figure in the release tables; for comparison, the fine print gives Q1 as $93,255,000. Several reports say Q2 digital advertising (+20.7%) beat the company's own guidance, and management warned that Q3 is up against strong ad-supply growth from the second half of 2025. The guidance figures came from secondary reports, not from the release text itself, because that part was cut off when I fetched it.
  Fetched: fetch: https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2026/05/Q1-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/business/media/new-york-times-earnings-q2.html (HTTP 403)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2026/08/Q2-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch_url: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm (HTTP 200)

### earnings_data (SUCCESS)
Company financial data:
  NYT: Price=$66.08 | MCap=? | Revenue=?

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
# NYT digital advertising: Q2 2026 results and Q3 2026 outlook, plus Q3 2025 results

## 1. Q2 2026 digital advertising results and the Q3 2026 outlook

**Key facts**
- **Reporting date:** 
The company presented its second-quarter 2026 results on August 5, 2026.

- **Q2 2026 results:** 
Total advertising revenues rose 11.3% to $149.1 million from $134.0 million in Q2 2025. Digital advertising revenues rose 20.7% to $114.0 million.

- **Print advertising:** 
Print advertising was $35.2 million, down 11.1% year over year.

- **Why digital ads grew:** 
The company cited strong marketer demand and growth in advertising supply.

- **Q3 2026 outlook:** The company did not give a single percentage. 
It expects digital advertising revenue to rise in the mid- to high-teens percentage range. It expects total advertising revenue to rise in the high single digits to low double digits.

- **Other Q3 guidance:** 
Digital-only subscription revenues are expected to rise 12%–15% and total subscription revenues 9%–11%. Affiliate, licensing and other revenues are expected to grow low- to mid-single digits. Adjusted operating costs are expected to rise 8%–9%.

- **Next report:** 
TipRanks lists the Q3 2026 report for Nov 11, 2026.


**Sources**
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm (10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2026)
- https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/new-york-times-q2-2026-slides-digital-growth-drives-profit-beat-93CH-4837703
- https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-new-york-times-tops-q2-2026-eps-forecast-as-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4837648
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings/q2-2026-report

## 2. Q3 2025 digital advertising results (earnings release)

**Key facts**
- **Release date:** 
The release is dated November 5, 2025.

- **Digital advertising:** 
Digital advertising revenues increased 20.3% year over year, primarily due to strong marketer demand and new advertising supply.
 
That was $98.1 million, up from $81.6 million in Q3 2024.

- **Total advertising:** 
Total advertising revenues rose 11.8% to $132.3 million. Print advertising fell 7.1% to $34.2 million.

- **Wider results:** 
Total revenues rose 9.5% to $700.8 million.
 
The company added about 460,000 net digital-only subscribers, bringing total subscribers to 12.33 million.

- **Versus guidance:** Before the report, 
management had anticipated low-double-digit growth in digital advertising revenues.
 The actual 20.3% was well above that.
- **Why it matters for 2026:** The Q3 2025 base is the comparison for the Q3 2026 guidance above.

**Sources**
- https://s23.q4cdn.com/152113917/files/doc_news/2025/11/05/B/Q3-2025-Earnings-Release-Final-For-Distribution-WURCS9BZX.pdf (official release)
- https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000126/nyt-20250930.htm (10-Q)
- https://ppc.land/new-york-times-adds-460-000-subscribers-in-q3-2025-earnings/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asse

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-13; forecasting closes 2026-10-13; resolves 2026-11-05. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
10 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 8 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-12] Applied Digital and Wolfspeed: Divergent Market Performance Amid AI Infrastructure Boom
Foreign Policy Journal — https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/10/12/applied-digital-nasdaq-apld-holds-36-billion-in-contracts-while-wolfspeed-nyse-wolf-wins-the-stock-market-battle/
  - As of October 12, 2026, a significant divergence exists in the AI infrastructure sector between Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) and Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF).
  - While Applied Digital holds approximately $36 billion in contracted revenue under 15-year lease agreements across five campuses with 1.41 gigawatts of reserved IT capacity as of August 31, 2026, its stock is down 15.8% year-to-date.
  - In contrast, Wolfspeed, which manufactures power semiconductors for these facilities, has surged 61.7% year-to-date.
  - Applied Digital's CEO, Wes Cummins, noted that fiscal Q1 2027 revenue reached $341.88 million, far exceeding the $124.57 million analyst estimate, though $183.5 million of this was one-time tenant fit-out work.
  - Despite this beat, the company remains unprofitable with trailing-12-month earnings per share of minus $1.65, $6.4 billion in debt, and $2.07 billion in quarterly capital spending.
  - Its immediate challenge is bringing over 600 megawatts into service within 12 months for projects including Polaris Forge 3 and Delta Forge 1 and 2.
  - Conversely, Wolfspeed emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in September 2025 and saw AI data center revenue more than double in fiscal 2026.
  - However, its non-GAAP gross margin remains deeply negative at minus 19.9%, with management projecting a gross-margin breakeven point near an '800 million annual run rate.' Wolfspeed's Materials Products division fell to $43.3 million from $78.4 million as it transitions to 200 mm wafers.
  - Both companies remain cash-consuming, with investors advised to wait at least another quarter for clearer financial pictures.

[2026-10-12] Onto Innovation Reports Record Q2 2026 Results, Raises Full-Year Outlook
Benzinga — https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62296714/innovation-q2-2026-earnings-call-complete-transcript
  - On October 12, 2026, Onto Innovation (NYSE: ONTO) reported record Q2 2026 financial results during an earnings call, with revenue reaching $343 million, up 18% sequentially and 35% year-over-year.
  - CEO Michael Plisinski and CFO Brian Roberts highlighted that advanced nodes grew 50% quarter-over-quarter to approximately $120 million, while the inspection business, dominated by Dragonfly systems, grew 30%.
  - The company raised its second-half revenue growth outlook to 25% or more over the first half, with Q4 revenue expected to exceed Q3.
  - Advanced packaging growth is now projected to reach approximately 80% for the year, driven by strong demand from HBM manufacturers and OSAT partners for AI applications.
  - The company secured orders totaling over $200 million for Dragonfly technology from a single OSAT partner, with the majority of deliveries scheduled for 2027.
  - Additionally, Onto Innovation received over $50 million in orders for silicon photonics, with an estimated addressable market of over $500 million by 2030.
  - The company achieved a gross margin of 57% and an operating margin of 30%, benefiting from extended factories in Asia.
  - Future guidance includes Q3 revenue between $380 million and $400 million, with operating margins expected to increase to 32% in Q3 and 33% or higher in Q4.
  - Onto Innovation maintains nearly $1.9 billion in cash and short-term investments, having recently completed a $1.5 billion convertible debt offering.
  - The company also announced a partnership with Rigaku to develop new X-ray process control solutions for semiconductor applications.

[2026-10-12] Northland Upgrades C3.ai to Outperform on New C3 Code Platform Amid Mixed Financial Results
Investing.com Brasil — https://br.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/northland-eleva-recomendacao-da-c3ai-com-nova-plataforma-de-desenvolvimento-93CH-2089043
  - On Monday, October 12, 2026, Northland upgraded its recommendation for C3.ai (NYSE: AI) from 'Market Perform' to 'Outperform' and raised its price target from US$ 10 to US$ 16.
  - The stock is currently trading at US$ 11.53, with a market capitalization of US$ 1.85 billion, following a 39% return over the last six months.
  - Analyst Mike Latimore cited the company's new 'C3 Code' platform as a key growth driver, stating it can reduce the development time for agentic AI applications from months to days by allowing users to build apps via natural language with autonomous agents.
  - This platform leverages 15 years of C3.ai's infrastructure to ensure reliability.
  - Additionally, C3.ai launched an 'Accelerator' marketing program; the first event gathered 110 attendees and 46 companies, demonstrating the creation of ready-to-use corporate AI applications in days.
  - Following this success, three more events were added.
  - The company's founder and CEO returned in May 2026 after a period of challenges, including the loss of a major client and management changes.
  - In recent financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027, C3.ai reported revenue of US$ 52.4 million, a 25% decline year-over-year, which fell within the company's guidance range of US$ 50.0 million to US$ 54.0 million and slightly exceeded the market estimate of US$ 52.1 million.
  - The non-GAAP loss per share (LPA) was negative US$ 0.20, beating the consensus of negative US$ 0.26.
  - Other firms provided mixed views: Yorkville Ives initiated coverage with an 'In Line' rating and a US$ 12.50 target, noting the completion of a 2026 tax restructuring; Needham maintained a 'Hold' rating citing the revenue drop; and JMP Securities reiterated a 'Market Perform' rating after visiting the headquarters, expressing concerns over revenue projections.

[2026-10-12] Vtex Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Misses Expectations Amid Strong Profitability and Cash Flow Growth
Benzinga — https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62294727/transcript-vtex-q2-2026-earnings-conference-call
  - Vtex (NYSE: VTEX) released its Q2 2026 financial results on Thursday, October 12, 2026, reporting that revenue fell short of internal expectations due to challenging macroeconomic conditions in Brazil and Argentina, though profitability and cash flow showed strong performance.
  - According to the company, non-GAAP operating income grew 62% year-over-year, reaching $13.8 million with a margin of 21.4%.
  - GMV reached $5.7 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year growth in US dollars and 7% on an FX-neutral basis.
  - Subscription revenue reached $63.8 million, growing 11% in US dollars but only 1.3% on an FX-neutral basis, driven by a customer mix shift toward larger enterprise accounts which carry lower take rates.
  - The company's four growth drivers—Global Expansion, B2B, Ads, and AI Collective—grew 20% on an FX-neutral basis and now represent 18% of subscription revenue.
  - Mariano Gomide de Faria, Founder and co-CEO, stated that the macro environment remained challenging with high interest rates in Brazil and softer consumer demand in Argentina, but the company is focused on its AI-native transformation.
  - Ricardo Camata Sodre, CFO, noted that free cash flow for the quarter was $12.7 million, growing 79% year-over-year.
  - The company repurchased 6.2 million Class A common shares at an average price of $3.76 per share for a total cost of $23.2 million.
  - Management updated its outlook for Q3 2026, targeting approximately flat FX-neutral subscription revenue growth and a non-GAAP operating margin in the low 20s.

[2026-10-12] IT Earnings and Market Outlook: Penguin Solutions, Applied Digital, Richardson Electronics Report Q4/Q1 Results Amid US and AI Policy Shifts
it.donga.com — https://it.donga.com/109680/
  - On October 12, 2026, IT Donga reported on key IT company earnings and market outlooks for the first week of October 2026.
  - Penguin Solutions (NASDAQ: PENG) reported Q4 fiscal 2026 total revenue of $566.69 million, an 18.4% increase from the previous quarter, driven by AI data center demand which accounted for 78% of revenue.
  - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.00.
  - The company forecast fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.43 billion, a 40% increase.
  - Applied Digital (NASDAQ: APLD) announced Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $341.9 million, up 32.2%, led by a 29.4% rise in its high-performance computing hosting segment, though it reported a net loss of $22.1 million and $2.07 billion in capital expenditures.
  - Richardson Electronics (NASDAQ: RELL) posted Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $64.9 million, a 1.9% quarterly decline but an 18.9% year-over-year increase, with gross margin improving to 34.6% due to tariff refunds.
  - On October 8, the White House announced the 'Genesis Mission,' a $2.4 billion initiative supported by tech giants including NVIDIA ($1 billion), AMD ($500 million), OpenAI, and Google, to provide computing resources for federal scientific research.
  - Meanwhile, Reuters reported on October 9 that China's Communist Party and State Council issued new guidelines to boost AI infrastructure and industrial adoption.
  - The article notes market concerns regarding rising US 10-year Treasury yields, which hit 5.237% on October 9, increasing borrowing costs for capital-intensive AI infrastructure projects.

[2026-10-09] Financial Comparison: Charter Communications vs. New York Times (analysis)
transcriptdaily.com — https://transcriptdaily.com/2026/10/09/reviewing-charter-communications-nasdaqchtr-and-new-york-times-nysenyt.html
  - Published on October 09, 2026, by Transcript Daily, this analysis compares Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) and The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT) across 14 financial and operational factors.
  - According to MarketBeat.com data, Charter Communications has a beta of 0.7, making it 30% less volatile than the S&P 500, while The New York Times has a beta of 0.93, making it 7% less volatile.
  - Analyst recommendations show Charter with a rating score of 1.91 (7 Sell, 10 Hold, 5 Buy, 0 Strong Buy) and The New York Times with a score of 2.64 (0 Sell, 5 Hold, 5 Buy, 1 Strong Buy).
  - In terms of valuation, Charter reported $54.77 billion in gross revenue and $4.99 billion in net income, trading at a Price/Earnings ratio of 2.85, whereas The New York Times reported $2.82 billion in revenue and $343.98 million in net income, trading at a P/E ratio of 27.77.
  - The article notes that while Charter has higher revenue and earnings, The New York Times is more profitable on a margin basis, with a 13.19% net margin compared to Charter's 9.05%.
  - Institutional ownership is high for both, with 81.8% of Charter shares and 95.4% of New York Times shares held by institutions.
  - The summary concludes that The New York Times beats Charter Communications on 9 of the 14 factors compared.

[2026-08-12] NYT Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue Grows 11.2% to $762.5M as Digital Subscriptions and Ad Revenue Surge
The Motley Fool — https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/
  - The New York Times Company (NYT) reported second quarter 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, with Total Revenue reaching $762.5 million, an 11.2% increase driven by strong performance across digital subscriptions and advertising.
  - Digital-only Subscription Revenue grew 16.4% to $407.9 million, supported by 280,000 net new subscribers, bringing the digital-only base to 12.8 million and raising the Digital-only ARPU to $9.94.
  - Digital Advertising Revenue rose 20.7% to $114.0 million, exceeding management expectations due to strong marketer demand.
  - Total Advertising Revenue increased 11.3% to $149.1 million.
  - Adjusted Operating Profit (AOP) grew 16.1% to $155.3 million, with the AOP Margin expanding to 20.4%.
  - Adjusted Diluted EPS was $0.69, a 19.0% increase.
  - The company reported $265.7 million in Free Cash Flow for the first half of 2026 and returned $160.8 million to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends.
  - CEO Meredith Kopit Levien highlighted the company's resilience against headwinds from big tech companies reducing publisher traffic, citing four enduring advantages including original independent reporting and a multi-revenue stream model.
  - The Athletic reached its largest audience ever during the World Cup.
  - Management provided Q3 guidance projecting 12-15% growth in Digital-only Subscription Revenue and mid-to-high teens growth in Digital Advertising Revenue.

[2026-08-07] NYT Q2 2026 Earnings: Digital Revenue Surges as Subscriber Growth Moderates
NASDAQ Stock Market — https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nyt-earnings-show-digital-growth-subscriber-momentum-moderates
  - The New York Times Company (NYT) reported second-quarter 2026 results showing robust digital growth, with total revenue rising 11.2% year over year to $762.5 million and adjusted operating profit climbing 16.1% to $155.3 million.
  - Digital-only subscription revenues increased 16.4% to $407.9 million, while digital advertising revenues surged 20.7% to $114 million.
  - Despite these gains, subscriber momentum moderated; digital-only net additions fell to 280,000 in Q2 from 310,000 in Q1, down from 460,000 in Q4 2025.
  - The company ended the quarter with 13.35 million total subscribers (12.80 million digital-only), aiming for a milestone of 15 million.
  - To offset slower growth, digital-only average revenue per user rose 3.1% to $9.94.
  - The company is investing in video production and a multi-product strategy (News, The Athletic, Cooking, Games, Wirecutter) to deepen engagement.
  - Management expects third-quarter digital advertising revenues to grow in the mid-to-high teens, though adjusted operating costs are projected to rise 8-9% in Q3.
  - According to Zacks Investment Research, which published the analysis on August 07, 2026, NYT holds a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) despite having A grades in Growth and Momentum.

[2026-08-06] New York Times Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Estimates Driven by Digital Subscription and Ad Growth
Zacks Investment Research — https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2970148/the-new-york-times-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-as-digital-ads-rise
  - The New York Times Company (NYT) reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 69 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents by 2.99%, while year-over-year adjusted earnings increased 19% from 58 cents.
  - Quarterly revenues rose 11.2% to $762.5 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $748 million by 1.94%.
  - This performance was driven by a subscription-first strategy, with total subscription revenues up 11.7% to $537.9 million; digital-only subscription revenues grew 16.4% to $407.9 million, while print subscription revenues declined 0.8% to $130 million.
  - The company ended the quarter with approximately 13.35 million total subscribers, including 12.80 million digital-only subscribers, adding 280,000 net digital-only subscribers in the quarter.
  - Digital-only average revenue per user (ARPU) increased 3.1% to $9.94.
  - Digital advertising revenues jumped 20.7% to $114 million, while print advertising revenues fell 11.1% to $35.2 million.
  - Adjusted operating profit rose 16.1% to $155.3 million, with an operating margin expanding to 20.4%.
  - The company remains debt-free with $1.22 billion in cash and marketable securities as of the quarter's end, having repurchased 473,691 shares for $35.4 million.
  - Management projects third-quarter digital-only subscription revenue growth of 12-15% and total subscription revenue growth of 9-11%.

[2026-08-05] New York Times Shares Drop 6% Despite Beating Earnings Expectations
Investing.com Brasil — https://br.investing.com/news/earnings/acoes-do-new-york-times-caem-6-apesar-de-resultados-acima-do-esperado-93CH-2027086
  - Shares of The New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT) fell 6% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, despite the company reporting second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations.
  - According to Investing.com, the media company posted an adjusted earnings per share of $0.69, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.67, while total revenue reached $762.5 million against a consensus of $752.1 million.
  - Subscription revenue totaled $537.9 million (estimate: $532.4 million), with digital subscriptions at 12.80 million (estimate: 12.72 million) and print subscriptions at 550,000 (estimate: 547,801).
  - Digital advertising revenue was $114.0 million (estimate: $112.4 million), and print advertising revenue was $35.2 million (estimate: $34.3 million), bringing total advertising revenue to $149.1 million.
  - Adjusted operating profit was $155.3 million, beating the estimate of $151.9 million.
  - Despite these positive figures across all key metrics, the stock decline signals that investors harbor concerns beyond the quarterly results.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-08-05] The latest reported value is Q2 2026 digital advertising revenue of $113,961K (10-Q table). That is +20.7% against $94,422K in Q2 2025. Six-month 2026 digital advertising was $207,216K, up 25.4%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm
- [2026-08-05] The Q2 release's trailing table gives digital advertising ($M) as: Q2'25 94.4, Q3'25 98.1, Q4'25 147.2, Q1'26 93.3, Q2'26 114.0. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm
- [2026-08-05] The base for the question is Q3 2025 digital advertising of $98.1M, which was +20.3% year over year. Q3 2026 is the comparison quarter. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm
- [2026-05-06] Q1 2026 was $93.3M (the question cites $93,255K), +31.6% year over year. Growth by quarter: Q1'25 +12.4%, Q2'25 +18.7%, Q3'25 +20.3%, Q4'25 +24.9%, Q1'26 +31.6%, Q2'26 +20.7%. Growth slowed in Q2 2026 but beat the guided high-teens range. https://nytco-assets.nytimes.com/2026/05/Q1-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf
- [2026-08-05] Q3 2026 guidance is for digital advertising to rise "mid-to-high teens" year over year. Total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double digits. This is per secondary summaries of the release. https://247wallst.com/companies/nyt/earnings/
- [2026-08-05] Arithmetic on the $98.1M base, with my own rounding: +15% gives about $112.8M, +17% about $114.8M, +19% about $116.7M. Repeating the Q2 beat of about 2–3 points over guidance would give roughly $118–120M. For comparison, Q2 guidance was high-teens and the actual was 20.7%. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/
- [2026-08-05] Management attributed the Q2 growth to strong marketer demand and more ad supply, mainly audio and video. Display rose $10.4M and non-display rose $9.1M. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm
- [2026-10-13] The Q3 release date is not confirmed in the sources I found. Quartr lists Nov 4, 2026, TipRanks lists Nov 11 (marked "Confirmed"), and Public.com lists Nov 27. The Q3 2025 report was on Nov 5, 2025. A date of Nov 4–5 fits the question's Nov 5 resolution date. https://quartr.com/companies/the-new-york-times-company_6225

BOTTOM LINE: The base is Q3 2025 at $98.1M. Guidance of mid-to-high-teens growth implies about $113–117M, and a repeat of the recent beats would put it nearer $118–120M. The Q2 2026 level was $114.0M.
NOT FOUND: A confirmed Q3 2026 release date from the company's own announcement. A consensus estimate for Q3 2026 digital advertising revenue. Any Q3 2026 actual, since it has not been reported yet.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-08-05] Q2 2026 digital advertising was $113,961K, up 20.7% from $94,422K. Management had guided high-teens growth, so Q2 beat the guided range. Q1 2026 was $93.3M (+31.6%). H1 2026 was $207.2M (+25.4%). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000034/nyt-20260630.htm and https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-08-05] Q3 2026 guidance: digital advertising to rise "mid-to-high teens" year over year. Total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double digits. Management said it is lapping strong ad supply growth from the back half of 2025. Earnings call: Q3 2026 digital advertising up mid-to-high teens. Q3 2026 base (Q3 2025) is $98.1M. A 15–19% increase implies roughly $113M–$117M. This is my arithmetic, not a company figure. https://quartr.com/events/the-new-york-times-company-nyt-q2-2026_3PJgPbAV and https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-new-york-times-tops-q2-2026-eps-forecast-as-shares-fall-premarket-93CH-4837648

- [2025-11-05] Same window last year (Q3 2025 release): digital advertising was $98.1M, "Digital advertising revenues increased 20.3 percent year-over-year primarily due to strong marketer demand and new advertising supply." Q3 2024 was $81.6M. Total advertising was $132.3M. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2025-11-05] Q3 2025 guidance was low-double-digit digital advertising growth (Zacks preview). Actual was +20.3%, a beat of roughly 8–10 points. Total advertising was guided low-to-mid single digits. Actual was +11.8%. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/assessing-york-times-company-ahead-145300831.html and https://finance.yahoo.com/news/york-times-q3-earnings-beat-131800766.html

- [2024-11-04] Q3 2024: digital advertising was $81.6M (+8.8%), against $75.0M in Q3 2023. CNBC called it the strongest growth in over two years. Total advertising was $118.4M (+1.1%). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169124000158/pressrelease09302024.htm and https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/new-york-times-nyt-q3-earnings-report.html

- [2023-11] Q3 2023 digital advertising was $75.0M. The Q4 2023 print and digital decline of -3.7% (to $107.7M) shows the series is not monotonic. Q4 2023 digital advertising fell partly because of five fewer days in the quarter. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169124000027/pressrelease12312023.htm

- [2026-08-05] Digital advertising year-over-year growth by quarter, from the company's own table: Q3'24 +8.8%, Q4'24 +9.5%, Q1'25 +12.4%, Q2'25 +18.7%, Q3'25 +20.3%, Q4'25 +24.9%, Q1'26 +31.6%, Q2'26 +20.7%. Dollar values were $81.6M, $117.9M, $70.9M, $94.4M, $98.1M, $147.2M, $93.3M and $114.0M. Growth has been at or above 18.7% for five straight quarters. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm

- [2025-08 to 2026-08] Pattern of beats against guidance: Q2 2026 guidance was high-teens and actual was 20.7%. Q3 2025 guidance was low-double-digit and actual was 20.3%. The company has been conservative, and recent quarters have exceeded the top of the guided range. The ppc.land piece reports the Q2 2026 beat, and the Yahoo/Zacks piece reports Q3 2025 guidance. I did not retrieve guidance for every quarter (Q4 2025, Q1 2026). https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2024-08-07] Q2 2024 digital advertising was $79.6M (+7.8%). The quarter-on-quarter pattern is that Q3 digital advertising was higher than Q2 in 2025 ($98.1M vs $94.4M, +3.9%) and 2024 ($81.6M vs $79.6M, +2.5%). In 2026, applying that seasonal step to Q2's $114.0M gives about $117M–$118M. That is my arithmetic. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169124000130/pressrelease06302024.htm

- [2026-08-05] Consensus for digital advertising: I found no published consensus. EPS consensus is about $0.64 for Q3 2026 (TipRanks), against $0.59 a year earlier. NYT has beaten consensus EPS for five straight quarters, and Q2 2026 adjusted EPS was $0.69 against $0.67 expected. Q2 2026 revenue was $762.5M against $751.9M expected. https://247wallst.com/companies/nyt/earnings/ and https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings

- [2026-10-13] Release date: Quartr and MarketBeat list an estimated Nov 4, 2026 release. TipRanks lists Nov 11 (labelled confirmed). The question resolves Nov 5. NYT has historically reported on the first Wednesday of November (Nov 5, 2025; Nov 4, 2024). I found no company announcement, so the date is unconfirmed. https://quartr.com/companies/the-new-york-times-company_6225 and https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings

- [2026-08-05] Reporting caveat: TheWrap cited Q2 2026 digital advertising as $111.4M. This conflicts with the SEC filing's $113,961K and appears to be an error. The SEC release is the resolution-relevant source. https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/new-york-times-q2-2026-earnings/

BOTTOM LINE: Guidance implies about $113M–$117M for Q3 2026 (mid-to-high-teens growth on $98.1M). NYT has beaten the top of its digital advertising guidance in recent quarters, by about 2–10 points. A 20% outcome would be about $118M, and a typical Q2-to-Q3 seasonal step also points to about $117M–$118M. Q3 2025 growth (+20.3%) is a tougher comparison than earlier periods.

NOT FOUND: Published analyst consensus for Q3 2026 digital advertising revenue. A company-confirmed Q3 2026 release date. Guidance figures for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 (needed for a full beat history). Q3 2023 guidance versus actual.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2025-11-05] The exact Q3 2025 base is $98,111K (Q3 2024: $81,564K). Rounded percentages on that base give: +15% = $112.8M; +17% = $114.8M; +19% = $116.8M; +20.7% (the Q2 2026 rate) = $118.4M; +25% = $122.6M. The release also shows Q4 2025 was guided with the same "mid-to-high-teens" digital ad wording as Q3 2026. Q4 2025 actual was +24.9% (per the earlier Q2 report's table). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2026-08-05] Driver 1, advertiser demand (controlled by marketers; the Times controls pricing and products). On the Q2 call, management said digital ad revenue exceeded the guidance range. It said marketer demand for its "high-performing ad products" beat expectations, and that growth was broad across news, games and sports. The CEO said campaigns renew because the ads perform. Management also called the Q3 outlook "healthy demand across the portfolio". https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-08-05] Driver 2, ad supply and a tougher comparison (controlled by the Times). The CEO reiterated the company is "lapping strong growth in supply" from the back half of 2025. Q3 2025 grew +20.3% on "new advertising supply", so the mid-to-high-teens guide is partly a comparison effect. In the Q&A, an analyst referred to "more difficult ad comps … over the next several quarters". https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-08-05] Driver 3, new sales capacity and video (controlled by the Times). A new middle-market ad sales team was staffed in 2026. The CEO said video plays a "relatively minor role" in ad growth so far, so Q3 upside from video is unlikely to be large. The CFO tied the cost overrun to ad COGS and incentive pay linked to ad outperformance, which confirms the Q2 beat was real revenue. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-05-06] Guidance-versus-actual history. For Q1 2026, the CFO had guided digital ad growth to the "high-teens to low-20%" range, and the actual was +31.6%. For Q2 2026 the guide was high-teens and the actual was +20.7%. For Q4 2025 the guide was mid-to-high-teens and the actual was +24.9%. Beats over the top of the range were roughly 1–10 points. Q1 guidance is from a MarketBeat call summary (a secondary source). The Q3 2026 guide of mid-to-high-teens is the same wording as Q4 2025, and it follows a quarter that beat. https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/new-york-times-q4-earnings-call-highlights-2026-02-05/?.tsrc=rss

- [2026-08-05] Driver 4, traffic from big platforms (not controlled by the Times). The CEO said platform moves keep reducing referral traffic to publishers. She said the Times is "not immune", though Q2 ad results still beat. This is a downside risk to impressions, but the company is shifting toward direct engagement through apps and video. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-09-24] New idiosyncratic risk: a shareholder lawsuit alleging biased Israel-Hamas coverage was filed Sept 23, and the stock fell as much as 11.9% that week. The Times denies the claims. No evidence of advertiser pullbacks was reported. A Q3 revenue effect is unlikely, since the quarter ended Sept 30 and ad deals are booked in advance. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/24/why-the-new-york-times-company-plunged-this-week/

- [2026-10-13] Release timing (a resolution-mechanics factor). The company has not announced its Q3 date; I found no 8-K or press release yet. MarketBeat estimates Nov 4 "based on past reporting schedules". TipRanks labels Nov 11 "Confirmed" and Nov 4 is the pattern from 2024–2025. The Q1, Q2 and Q4 2025 releases each came on a Wednesday, with an 8:00 a.m. ET call. If the company reports Nov 11, the report would fall after the Nov 5 resolution date. The sequence needed is a company date announcement in October, then an 8-K and release at 7:00 a.m. ET on the day, then the figure in the "Digital advertising revenues" line of the footnote (b) table, reported in thousands. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NYT/earnings/

- [2026-10-13] The reported number will come from footnote (b) of the release's financial statements, in thousands, and the question's example uses that format ($93,255,000 for Q1). Digital ad revenue is reported to the nearest thousand, so the exact figure is not rounded. The Q3 2025 figure in the same table is $98,111K. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2026-08-05] Q3 total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double-digit growth. Print advertising was $35.2M in Q2, down 11.1%. That implies the digital share of total advertising is rising, which is consistent with digital growth well above the total. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/12/nyt-nyt-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/

- [2026-10-13] Mechanism for the number: Q3 2026 = $98.1M × (1 + g). The guide implies g of about 15–19%, and beats of 2+ points over the top of the range have been the norm. The Q2 2026 digital ad figure ($114.0M) is the floor-ish reference. Sequential Q2-to-Q3 seasonality was +3.9% in 2025, which would give about $118.4M from Q2's $114.0M. Both of these are my own arithmetic.

BOTTOM LINE: Guidance and the comparison base ($98,111K) set the range at about $113–117M. A repeat of the recent beat pattern and the Q2-to-Q3 seasonal step would put the figure nearer $117–121M. The main swing factors are the size of the beat against guidance and whether the release lands by Nov 5.

NOT FOUND: A company-confirmed Q3 2026 release date. A published analyst consensus for Q3 digital advertising revenue. Any Q3 2026 industry data showing advertiser pullbacks at the Times. Q1 2026 guidance from a primary source (I only found a secondary call summary).

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-08-05] Company guidance for Q3 2026 is the main official projection. Digital advertising revenues are expected to rise "mid to high teens" year over year. Total advertising is guided to high-single to low-double digits. Digital-only subscriptions are guided to +12–15%. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm (the guidance wording is confirmed via ppc.land and the Benzinga call transcript; I could not see the outlook section of the 8-K itself because it was truncated in the fetch.)
- [2026-08-05] The base period is Q3 2025 digital advertising of $98.1M (+20.3% y/y). Q2 2026 was $114.0M (+20.7%), Q1 2026 was $93.3M (+31.6%) and Q4 2025 was $147.2M (+24.9%). Source: the 8-K quarterly table. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm
- [2026-10-13] My arithmetic, not a published forecast: "mid-to-high teens" is roughly +15% to +19%. On the $98.1M base that implies about $112.8M to $116.7M, with a midpoint near $114.8M (+17%). The $98.1M base is rounded, so the range carries about ±$0.1M of uncertainty.
- [2026-08-05] Guidance track record: Q2 was guided to "high-teens" digital ad growth and came in at 20.7%, above the range. Management said marketer demand exceeded expectations. Q2 total advertising also beat, at +11.3% against a guide of high single digits. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/
- [2025-11-05] Earlier guidance record: Q3 2025 total advertising was guided to low-to-mid-single digits and came in at +11.8%. Digital advertising came in at +20.3% ($98.1M). Q4 2025 was then guided to mid-to-high-teens digital growth and delivered +24.9%. The pattern is a repeated beat of digital ad guidance, though the Q4 and Q3 2026 guide wordings are identical. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/york-times-q3-earnings-beat-131800766.html
- [2026-08-05] Digital ad growth over the last five quarters was 18.7%, 20.3%, 24.9%, 31.6% and 20.7%. The Q3 guide is a deceleration against a harder comparison. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/
- [2026-10-13] Yahoo Finance consensus for Q3 2026 total revenue is $766.87M from 6 analysts (low $763M, high $773.45M). Consensus EPS is $0.65, down from $0.67 seven days earlier. There is no public line-item consensus for digital advertising. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NYT/analysis/
- [2026-08-05] Analyst estimates have been beaten often. Adjusted EPS beat the estimate in each of the last four quarters: Q3 2025 $0.59 vs $0.53, Q4 2025 $0.89 vs $0.88, Q1 2026 $0.61 vs $0.47, Q2 2026 $0.69 vs about $0.66–0.67. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings
- [2026-08-05] Management said Q2 advertising growth was broad across news, games and sports. Video has so far played only a minor role. A new middle-market ad sales team launched in 2026. The company is also dealing with falling platform referral traffic. https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/york-times-q2-earnings-call-220352118.html
- [2026-10-09] Release timing is unconfirmed. TipRanks, Stock Events and ad-hoc-news list Nov 11, 2026. Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat list Nov 4, and Public.com lists Nov 27. The Q3 release was Nov 5 in 2025 and Nov 4 in 2024. An 11 Nov release would fall after the Nov 5 resolution date. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NYT/
- [2026-08-05] Data-quality warning: TheWrap's article gave $111.4M for Q2 digital advertising, which conflicts with the 8-K's $114.0M ($113,961K). Use the 8-K figure. https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/new-york-times-q2-2026-earnings/
- Prediction markets and community forecasts: I found none for this quantity.

BOTTOM LINE: Official guidance of mid-to-high-teens growth on the $98.1M base implies roughly $113–117M. The company has beaten its digital ad guidance in the last several quarters, so the upper end of the range or above is plausible. The release date is uncertain (Nov 4 vs Nov 11), and a date after Nov 5 would matter for resolution.

NOT FOUND: A published analyst consensus for Q3 2026 digital advertising revenue specifically. Any Polymarket, Metaculus or Kalshi market on this. The company's confirmed Q3 2026 release date. The exact Q3 2025 digital advertising figure in thousands.

### HIGH CASE
- [2026-08-05] Q2 guidance was "high teens" and the actual was 20.7%. Q1 2026 guidance was also "high teens" (see the AMO comparison of prior-quarter guides), and Q1 actual was +31.6%. So Q1 beat the guided band by roughly 12 points and Q2 by roughly 2. The Q3 guide of mid-to-high teens is a wording step-down, and Q4 2025 used the same wording and delivered +24.9%. Beats of this size mean the high case is about +20–25%, or $118–123M on the $98.1M base. That range is my arithmetic. https://www.amediaoperator.com/news/new-york-times-q2-2026-shares-tumble-costs-video-ads/
- [2026-08-05] Management said Q2 marketer demand for its high-performing ad products exceeded expectations. Growth was broad across news, games and sports, with "real scale of engagement". Per the Benzinga call transcript (a search snippet only; the page returned 403 when fetched). https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/10/62237709/full-transcript-new-york-times-q2-2026-earnings-call
- [2026-08-05] Mechanism for the high case: The Athletic set audience records during World Cup coverage, which added high-engagement ad inventory. World Cup 2026 ran June 11 – July 19, so part of the tournament fell in Q3. A new middle-market ad sales team has been staffed to reach previously underserved advertisers. Both are upside to the Q3 supply and demand picture, per BigGo's summary of the call. https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_NYT_2026-08-05
- [2026-08-05] Mechanism against the high case: management cautioned it is lapping strong supply growth from last year's back half. Platform referral traffic is declining. Video monetisation is still early. These factors explain the guide's deceleration. https://finance.biggo.com/news/US_NYT_2026-08-05
- [2026-09-xx] Market backdrop: Sensor Tower puts US digital ad spend at $201B for Aug 2025–Jul 2026, up 15% year on year. IAB data show US digital ad growth accelerated through 2025, from 12.2% in Q1 to 14.9% in Q3. The industry is therefore growing at about the same pace as NYT's guide, which does not argue for NYT falling short. https://optidigital.com/resources/press-release/digital-advertising-trends-publishers-2026/ and https://axis-intelligence.com/digital-advertising-statistics/
- [2026-09] Political spending for the midterms (about $11B, per Improvado) may constrain inventory for commercial advertisers in Q3 and Q4. This is a modest headwind to the high case, from a secondary source. https://improvado.io/blog/ads-spend-report-by-industry
- [2026-10-13] Consensus total revenue ($766.9M per the earlier Yahoo figure) versus Q3 2025 total revenue of $700.8M (MarketBeat history) implies about +9.4%. The Q2 beat on revenue was about $10M against consensus, and the Q3 2025 beat was about $9M. A similar beat on advertising alone would be the high-case route. MarketBeat's Q3 2025 revenue estimate of $692.0M versus the $700.8M actual is the source for that beat. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NYT/earnings/
- [2026-10-13] Release date risk: Quartr and MarketBeat list a Nov 4 estimate. TipRanks labels Nov 11 "Confirmed", but its own page says the date is estimated from past schedules, so the label is not reliable. No company announcement was found. Shutterstock (Oct 12) and others announced Nov 4–5 dates, but NYT is not among them. A Nov 11 release would fall after the Nov 5 resolution date. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings
- [2026-08-05] Seasonal arithmetic for the high case: Q3 has run 2.5–3.9% above Q2 in the last two years. In 2023, Q3 digital advertising was +6.7% year on year. A step of 5% or more over Q2's $114.0M would give about $120M or higher. This is my own arithmetic from the Q2 and Q3 figures already given above. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000071691/000007169126000032/pressrelease6302026.htm

BOTTOM LINE: The high scenario is $118–123M, a repeat of the 2–10 point beats NYT has delivered against its digital advertising guidance. Signals for it are World Cup inventory spillover, the new middle-market sales team and industry growth around 15%. Lapping strong supply growth, falling referral traffic and midterm political crowd-out limit it.

NOT FOUND: A company-confirmed Q3 2026 release date. A line-item consensus for Q3 digital advertising. Any Q3 2026 actual. A readable full transcript, because Benzinga returned 403. Any NYT mid-quarter commentary from the Sept 9 Citi conference on ad trends.

### LOW CASE
- [2026-08-05] Low-case mechanism: management named the Q3 comparison base as harder. On the Q2 call, the CEO said the company is "lapping strong growth in supply" from the back half of 2025. The ppc.land write-up reads the guide as a deliberate step down from the 20.7% just delivered. Q3 2025 also had the supply expansion built into its own +20.3% (up from +18.7% in Q2 2025). So the 2-point seasonal-step argument from the earlier reports could overstate Q3. If Q3 growth fell to 15%, revenue would be about $112.8M, slightly below Q2's $114.0M. That would be a sequential decline, the opposite of the 2024 and 2025 pattern. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-08-05] The Q2 beat was explicitly demand-driven ("marketer demand ... exceeded our expectations"). It also tied to a World Cup quarter (June 2026), which management cited for marketing spend. The World Cup sat in Q2, and Q3 has no comparable event, which is a possible source of fade. Management gave no breakdown of volume versus price. This is my inference, not a company statement. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-08-05] CEO said platform traffic to publishers keeps falling and "The Times isn't immune." Q2 net digital subscriber additions slowed to 280k from 310k in Q1. Video is only a "minor role" in ad revenue so far. Fewer visits could limit ad supply in Q3, though the company has so far grown ad revenue despite this. https://www.niemanlab.org/2026/08/even-the-new-york-times-isnt-immune-to-declining-search-traffic-one-reason-its-leaning-into-video/

- [2026-08-05] Q2 cost overshoot (adjusted costs +10.0% vs a guide of 8–9%) came from incentive pay tied to the ad beat. This shows the guide was set conservatively. It also means the low scenario needs a real demand miss, not just a normal outcome. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2025-11-05] The Q3 2025 base is confirmed on the company's own table as $98.1M. The release attributes the +20.3% to "strong marketer demand and new advertising supply". The Q4 2024 to Q3 2025 growth sequence (9.5%, 12.4%, 18.7%, 20.3%) shows the supply and demand tailwinds built through 2025, which is why the H2 2026 comparisons are harder. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/71691/000007169125000124/pressrelease09302025.htm

- [2026-08-05] Floor arithmetic (mine). The bottom of "mid-teens" is +14%, about $111.8M. +13% is about $110.9M. Because the company has beaten its digital ad guide in each quarter I checked, a result below $112M would be a first miss. https://ppc.land/new-york-times-digital-ad-revenue-gains-20-7-to-114-million-in-q2/

- [2026-09-09] At Citi's TMT conference, management again attributed the Q3 slowdown to prior-year mix effects, with the long-term trajectory "positive". The summary I saw was about subscriptions, and I found no ad-specific warning. Quartr lists the Q3 report for Nov 4. https://quartr.com/companies/the-new-york-times-company_6225

- [2026-09/10] Macro backdrop is not weak. The IAB raised its 2026 US ad growth forecast to +12.3% in its September update (reported secondhand). Sensor Tower puts the 12 months to July 2026 at +15%. The same summary notes that about $11B of midterm political spending could crowd out commercial inventory in Q3 and Q4. Political crowd-out is a modest downside risk for a news publisher in October. This comes from a low-quality secondary source. https://www.webtonic.io/blog/online-advertising-statistics

- [2026-10-13] Release timing risk: TipRanks says Nov 11 "(Confirmed)", Yahoo and Quartr say Nov 4, and Public.com says Nov 27. The release for Q2 was on the first Wednesday of the month, and the Q3 2025 release was Nov 5, 2025. If the release came after Nov 5, the question could resolve without a figure inside the window. I did not find a company announcement. https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/nyt/earnings

BOTTOM LINE: The low scenario is a result in the high-$111M to $113M range (about +14–15%). It would need the supply lap and the lack of a World Cup-style event to pull growth to the low end of the guide, and the company has beaten its guide in recent quarters. Signals would be Q3 commentary on a demand slowdown, weaker midterm-season ad pricing, and a falling Q2-to-Q3 sequential change.

NOT FOUND: Any published consensus for Q3 digital advertising revenue. A company-confirmed Q3 release date. Any ad-specific warning from the Sept 9 Citi conference. Third-party data on NYT ad impressions or pricing in July to September 2026.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: what the resolution source currently shows, and whether the value is already known or fixed as of today.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
  (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
  (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
  (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
  (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).

## Calibration guidance

- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Markets and experts are priors, not anchors.** If a SAME QUESTION market, analyst consensus, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior — centre near them and widen — and name the specific evidence they lack whenever you move away. RELATED markets are context only.
- **Open bounds carry real mass.** Where a bound is OPEN, the outcome can land beyond it and the question then resolves "below range" / "above range". Put honest probability there (p_below_min / p_above_max in the output) instead of squeezing the distribution inside the displayed range; the season's worst losses were outcomes that landed where the distribution had ~2%.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
  "p10": <number>,
  "p25": <number>,
  "p50": <number>,
  "p75": <number>,
  "p90": <number>,
  "p_below_min": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is BELOW 110000000>,
  "p_above_max": <probability in [0, 1] that the outcome is ABOVE 125000000>,
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would move your p50 by a quarter of your p10-p90 width if false; [] if none>"]
}

Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90). p_below_min is P(outcome < 110000000); p_above_max is P(outcome > 125000000). These must agree with your percentiles: a p10 below the lower bound implies p_below_min > 0.10, a p90 above the upper bound implies p_above_max > 0.10. A mass below ~0.05 on an open side needs a specific reason.