How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?

- [2026-10-08] DPI's upcoming-executions page (last updated Oct 8) lists nine remaining 2026 executions: Robertson (FL, Oct 13), Reaves (FL, Oct 20), Weisheit (IN), Taylor (AL) and Guardado (FL) on Nov 5, Rubio (TX) and Pavatt (OK) on Nov 12, Dennes (TX) on Nov 19, and Hasan (military) on Dec 3. DPI says Ohio's warrants will not be carried out, since the governor has said there will be no executions without a new method. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-07] Jamaal Howard was executed in Texas and was widely reported as the 30th US execution of 2026. It was the first since Christa Pike's failed execution. Texas has executed seven this year and plans two more (Rubio, Dennes). Reports differ on Texas's count (ABC7 says six, The Hill says seven). https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/texas-man-executed-after-christa-pike/
- [2026-10-11] Florida withdrew the warrant for William Thompson (Oct 13, 6pm). His attorneys say dementia makes him incompetent, and the state has not released the competency evaluation. James Robertson remains set for noon Oct 13. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/newsletter/dpi-weekly-updates-2026-42
- [2026-10-01] Robertson pleaded guilty, waived his appeals, and says he killed his cellmate to get a death sentence. The Florida Supreme Court briefing schedule ran through Oct 11. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-james-robertsons-execution
- [2026-10-02] Florida had already executed 16 people in 2026, per a Yahoo report. William Reaves Jr. is set for Oct 20 at 6pm ET. DeSantis has signed 19 warrants this year, matching the 2025 record, and more could be added before year-end. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/desantis-signs-death-warrant-man-190413946.html
- [2026-09-30] Tennessee's execution of Christa Pike failed after two doses of pentobarbital. Gov. Lee halted Tennessee executions for the rest of 2026, so no Tennessee executions will count in 2026. He postponed the state's only other scheduled one this year. The prison commissioner resigned. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/01/nx-s1-5986822/tennessee-governor-halts-executions
- [2026-10-10] Tennessee's September failure followed Tony Carruthers' failed execution in May. Texas executed Howard with the same drug (pentobarbital) a week after Pike without incident, though his final minutes were reported as prolonged. Howard's lawyers' appeals to the Supreme Court failed. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/us/texas-tennessee-lethal-injection-execution-hnk
- [2026-10-06] The Army set Nidal Hasan's execution by firing squad for Dec 3, 2026, at 1pm CST. The Army order is dated Oct 6, and Trump approved it Oct 2. Reports differ on the site (Fort Hood vs Fort Leavenworth). DPI says Hasan can seek habeas review in civilian federal courts, which would delay it indefinitely. It would be the first military execution since 1961, and military executions count under the question's fine print even though DPI does not include them in its total. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/nidal-hasan-may-be-executed-on-december-3-by-firing-squad-first-military-execution-in-65-years
- [2026-10-07] KWTX quoted legal experts saying continued delay in the Hasan case is "very likely". As of Oct 9–10, PBS reported Hasan had not signaled whether he will contest the sentence. Hegseth announced a livestream, which drew bipartisan criticism (e.g. Sen. Tillis). https://www.kwtx.com/2026/10/07/very-likely-we-will-see-continued-delay-legal-challenges-may-stall-hasans-execution/
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia's schedule tracker also shows nine 2026 executions remaining: 3 Florida, 2 Texas, and one each for Alabama, Indiana, Oklahoma and the military. It was compiled before Thompson's withdrawal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-08] DPI's 2026 outcomes page shows 58 execution dates scheduled by nine states and the military this year. Many have ended inactive, for example through reprieves (Pennsylvania, Ohio) and clemency (Alabama's Burton, Mar 10). Alabama's June nitrogen execution was blocked by the Supreme Court, and Alabama sought lethal injection instead. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026

BOTTOM LINE: The count stands at 30 as of Oct 7, with nine dates remaining. Thompson's Oct 13 warrant has been withdrawn, but Robertson's execution is the same day, so the Oct 13 slot still holds one. The ceiling on current dates is 39, and the Hasan execution on Dec 3 is the least certain. Further Florida warrants (the late-year pace) could raise the total above 39, and stays, reprieves or other failures could lower it.

NOT FOUND: Any execution result after Oct 7; the live DPI 2026 count, because the DPI database is a JavaScript table that did not render; the outcome of Thompson's competency review; any filed Hasan habeas petition; and any new Florida warrants beyond Reaves.

- [2026-10-08] DPI counted 30 executions in 2026 as of its Oct 8 update. It lists 58 execution dates set by 9 states and the US military for 2026, with 19 warrants inactive. 30 executed plus 19 inactive leaves 9 active, which matches DPI's upcoming list. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-08] DPI's remaining 2026 schedule has 9 dates:
  - Oct 13: Robertson (FL).
  - Oct 20: Reaves (FL).
  - Nov 5: Weisheit (IN), Taylor (AL), Guardado (FL).
  - Nov 12: Rubio (TX), Pavatt (OK).
  - Nov 19: Dennes (TX).
  - Dec 3: Hasan (US military, firing squad).
  
  The DPI Oct 8 page predates the Oct 12 Florida notice below. Ohio dates are non-operative under DeWine's stated policy. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-12] The Florida Supreme Court-watch (FADP) release says Thompson's Oct 13 warrant was withdrawn (stayed for a competency review on Sept 17). Robertson's execution at noon Oct 13 remains on. It would be Florida's 17th of 2026. Robertson waived his appeals. https://www.fadp.org/florida-set-to-execute-man-who-said-he-killed-to-reach-death-row-challenging-misconception-that-death-penalty-deters-crime/
- [2026-10-08] The Wikipedia 2026 list shows 30 executions: FL 16, TX 7, OK 3, AL 2, AZ 1, TN 1, all by lethal injection. September had 6, which is the monthly high. The 30th was Howard (TX) on Oct 7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-01] Tennessee Gov. Lee paused all executions for the rest of 2026 after the failed Pike execution (Sept 30), so Sutton's Dec 3 date is inactive. Tennessee has had two failed executions in 2026 (Carruthers in May, Pike). The state has completed one execution (Hines). https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/10/01/tennessee-governor-orders-third-party-review-pause-all-executions-for-the-rest-of-the-year/
- [2026-10-07] Hasan (military): Trump approved the sentence on Oct 2, and the Army set Dec 3 for the firing squad. The last US military execution was in 1961. DPI's director says Hasan could delay it with a federal habeas petition, and Army Lawyer says that could take years. It is the least certain of the 9 dates. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/07/nx-s1-5993539/firing-squad-execution-nidal-hasan-fort-hood
- [2025 base rate] 2025 finished with 47 executions, the highest in over a decade. Florida had 19, and 7 of those fell in October. October to December 2025 had 7, 3 and 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2025
- [2026 attrition] Of the dates that ran their course so far in 2026, roughly 30 of 49 were executed (about 61%). Many inactive ones were Ohio reprieves (a structural non-event), Pennsylvania reprieves and gubernatorial clemency (AL Burton), and the Tennessee failures. Among warrants in states that actually carry out executions (FL, TX, OK, AL, IN), nearly all proceeded, with exceptions such as the Thompson stay. This is my own calculation from the DPI table. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-12] Florida: DeSantis has signed 19 warrants in 2026 (matching the 2025 record), and Florida has completed 16 executions so far. Florida shows a short warrant-to-execution window (Robertson's was 12 days). New Florida warrants could be signed for dates before Dec 31, which would add executions beyond the current list. Warrants have typically been issued about 30 days or less before execution. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/2026/10/02/oct-2/
- [2026-10-07] The SMU pending list (Oct 8) marks all 2026 dates except Tennessee's as "serious" (*). Wikipedia also lists 13 pending requests for execution dates in four states, so additional late-2026 dates are possible but none are confirmed. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [Historical context] Annual US executions were 11 (2021), 18 (2022), 24 (2023), and 47 (2025). 2026's 30 through Oct 7 is on pace to land well below 2025 unless Florida adds more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2022

BOTTOM LINE: The outside view gives a floor of 30. The most likely total is 30 plus the executions that go ahead from the 8 non-Tennessee dates. Of these, FL/TX/OK/AL/IN dates usually proceed but with occasional stays, and Hasan's is the main uncertainty. Florida could add warrants, so totals above 39 are possible but would need new warrants. No bookmaker or forecaster odds were found.

NOT FOUND: Any published odds or expert forecast for the 2026 total. DPI's year-to-date tally was not confirmed after Oct 8. Outcome of Robertson's Oct 13 execution. Any new Florida or Texas warrants dated for Dec 2026. Info on whether Hasan has filed a federal habeas petition. DPI's stay and attrition rates for 2025 warrants.

- [2026-10-08] Hasan is the swing entry. His civilian lawyer John Galligan told ABC that a federal habeas petition is "a distinct possibility" but no decision has been made. Army rules require a date 60–150 days after presidential approval, and Dec 3 is near the earliest allowed. Army officials are still writing a new firing-squad procedure. The existing 1959 procedure has not been updated, and the Army had planned for lethal injection until Trump chose a firing squad. So Hasan's date depends on three things in order: no habeas filing or stay, the Army finishing a protocol, and the execution going ahead on Dec 3. A habeas filing is the main thing that could stop it. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734

- [2026-10-09] Hasan has litigation routes beyond habeas. Experts quoted by Snopes say the defense could argue that a livestreamed execution is cruel and unusual punishment. Any civilian-court stay would halt both the execution and the stream. The Hasan execution is therefore the date most exposed to a court. https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/10/09/nidal-hasan-execution-livestream-legal/

- [2026-10-09] Thompson's warrant was withdrawn after a Sept 15 neuropsychologist found him unable to understand his execution. The Florida Supreme Court denied his stay hours before DeSantis rescinded the warrant. A three-member panel appointed under Executive Order 26-192 examined him on Oct 1. The state hasn't said whether it will seek a new date, and Thompson's lawyers have filed a separate federal suit over his medical care. A Thompson execution in 2026 is unlikely. Florida attributed no other withdrawal to the Tennessee failures, but advocates raised the compromised-veins risk. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-cancels-execution-florida-inmate-claiming-dementia

- [2026-10-05] Florida upside driver: Guardado's Nov 5 warrant was DeSantis's second in a week. After Guardado, no Florida date after Nov 5 is on the schedule. Florida's Dec 2025 date (Geralds, Dec 9) was signed on Nov 7, 2025, about 32 days ahead. So a new warrant signed in early-to-mid November could still land in 2026. Florida's 2026 execution total could pass 20 only if all Oct–Nov dates run and more warrants follow. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-20th-death-warrant-jesse-guardado-florida-2026-execution-record/ ; https://www.wctv.tv/2025/11/07/gov-desantis-signs-death-warrant-18th-execution-this-year/

- [2026-10-02] Robertson's warrant gave the shortest warrant window since Florida resumed executions in 2017, only 12 days. He waived all postconviction claims, and the Florida Supreme Court issued its scheduling order the same day. This makes Oct 13 the most certain remaining date. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-james-robertsons-execution

- [2026-09-19] Texas has a pending method challenge. Rubio and the already-executed Norman sued over expired or compounded pentobarbital. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, at Paxton's urging, blocked a Travis County judge from halting executions. That blocks the route most likely to stop Rubio on Nov 12. Dennes on Nov 19 faces the same pentobarbital questions. Texas has since executed Ramey and Howard. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/09/19/mvav-s19.html

- [2026-08-31] Indiana's Weisheit (Nov 5) was ordered by the Indiana Supreme Court. State attorneys say he has exhausted all appeals and has no active stay. Indiana would be carrying out its fourth execution since resuming. https://www.wwbl.com/2026/08/31/indiana-supreme-court-sets-jeffrey-weisheits-execution-for-november-5th/

- [2026-09-17] Alabama precedent: Jeffery Lee's June 11 date was stayed after a nitrogen-method lawsuit. The state then got a new warrant specifying lethal injection, and he was executed Sept 17. So an Alabama stay is not necessarily final within the year, but Taylor's Nov 5 date has no known similar challenge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026

- [2026-10-12] Death Penalty Action (Oct 8 snapshot) lists Weisheit, Taylor, Pavatt, Rubio and Dennes as active, and marks Roberts (AL), Ryder (OK), Speer (TX) and Sutton (TN) as postponed. Postponements happen months ahead, so none of these dates is a late surprise. https://deathpenaltyaction.org/take-action/execution-petitions/

- [2026-10-12] Wikipedia's schedule count of 36 includes 27 Ohio dates that will not run. The remaining nine are the same nine as DPI. This confirms no unlisted late-2026 date exists, other than possible new Florida warrants. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States

BOTTOM LINE: After the Oct 7 count of 30, the arithmetic is 30 plus the executions that go ahead from 8 live dates (Thompson is out), with Robertson, Reaves, and the Texas, Oklahoma, Indiana and Alabama dates the most routine. Hasan on Dec 3 is the main downside risk, and new Florida warrants signed by about early December are the main upside, so a final total in the mid-to-high 30s is plausible.

NOT FOUND: Any result of Robertson's Oct 13 execution. Any Hasan habeas filing or stay. Whether Florida will re-warrant Thompson. Any Florida warrant for a date after Nov 5. Any new Texas, Oklahoma or Alabama stay. DPI's live 2026 count after Oct 8.

- [2026-10-12] I found no prediction-market or forecaster pricing for this exact question. I searched Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus and saw no 2026 US execution-count contract or question. The numbers below come from official schedules and news, not from forecasters. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39805/us-executive-in-contempt-for-not-obeying-a-court-ruling-in-these-years/ (unrelated Metaculus page; nothing on executions)
- [2026-10-08] DPI's primary outcomes-of-warrants page says 58 execution dates were set for 2026 by 9 states and the US military. 30 executions have been carried out and 19 warrants are inactive. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-08] DPI's "Remaining Executions Scheduled for 2026" lists 9 dates: FL Robertson (Oct 13), FL Reaves (Oct 20), IN Weisheit, AL Taylor and FL Guardado (all Nov 5), TX Rubio and OK Pavatt (Nov 12), TX Dennes (Nov 19), and military Hasan (Dec 3). On that list the maximum is 39. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-09] The first schedule change since DPI's update: DeSantis withdrew the death warrant for William Lee Thompson, who was due Oct 13. This was the first warrant withdrawal of his tenure. Robertson's execution remains set. That puts the ceiling at 38 unless a new warrant is added. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/9/florida-execution-called-ron-desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-first/
- [2026-10-12] Florida advocacy group FADP describes Robertson's execution as scheduled for noon on Oct 13, and as Florida's 17th of 2026 if carried out. That is consistent with Florida's 16 executions through Oct 7 per Wikipedia. https://fadp.org/florida-set-to-execute-man-who-said-he-killed-to-reach-death-row-challenging-misconception-that-death-penalty-deters-crime
- [2026-10-06] Florida has issued 20 warrants this year, the most recent for Guardado (Nov 5). DeSantis can sign more warrants with roughly 30 days' lead time. Florida carried out 19 executions in 2025, a modern record. This is the main upside risk to the DPI list. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia's list of 2026 executions shows 30 carried out as of Oct 7. By state: FL 16, TX 7, OK 3, AL 2, AZ 1, TN 1. By month: September 6, August 4, May 4. The pace is about 3 to 4 per month, with 0 so far in November and December. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-12] Tennessee is out for 2026. Gov. Lee suspended executions for the rest of the year after the failed Pike execution on Sept 30 and the failed Carruthers attempt in May. Gary Sutton's Dec 3 date is on hold. Pike and Carruthers are not counted as executed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-12] The Hasan firing-squad execution (Dec 3, Fort Hood, to be livestreamed) is the least certain entry. It would be the first US military execution since 1961. DPI lists it, and the question's fine print counts military executions. I did not check whether litigation is pending, and I found no expert forecast on whether it will go ahead. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmpwg28vrexzo
- [2026-10-08] SMU's Pending Executions list marks all of the same dates as "serious", meaning more likely to be carried out. It also notes that stays can come at the last moment. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [2026-10-08] Ohio's warrants for 2027 to 2030 are not expected to be carried out. DeWine has said no executions will happen without a new method. These do not affect 2026. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-12] Informal track-record signal: of 58 dates set for 2026, 30 were carried out, 19 are inactive, and 9 remain. Counting the withdrawn Thompson date, the 9 remaining are all-but-one of the original list. This is a base rate of about 52% of dates executed. It is far lower for non-Florida states, and for the other states, where warrants are set months ahead. Florida warrants set about 30 days out have mostly been carried out (16 of the 18 or so signed). https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026

BOTTOM LINE: No market or expert forecast was found. Official sources show 30 executions so far and 8 dates still scheduled after Thompson's withdrawal, which makes the practical ceiling 38 unless Florida adds warrants, which it can do on about 30 days' notice. That gives a plausible range of roughly 32 to 38, with the Hasan firing squad and the late Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama and Indiana dates as the main uncertainties.

NOT FOUND: Any Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus market or forecast on the 2026 US execution total; analyst or expert projections of the year-end total; whether any stay or litigation is pending against Hasan's execution; DPI's own year-end projection (its year-end report comes in December).

The leading outcome is a final 2026 total in the mid-30s, probably 35 to 37. That is 30 executions to date plus most of the eight dates still active. A total of 38 or 39 needs Hasan's firing squad to go ahead, and it is the least certain date.

- [2026-10-12] Florida's dates are the strongest part of the case. Robertson (Oct 13) pleaded guilty and waived all appeals, so he is the least likely of any pending prisoner to be stayed. He took the 12-day warrant window with no litigation to run. https://www.tampafp.com/florida-inmate-chicken-head-killed-for-a-spot-on-death-row-next-week-he-gets-the-needle/
- [2026-10-09] DeSantis withdrew Thompson's warrant. The Hill ties this to the Pike failure. Fox13 and CBS12 tie it to the dementia claims and the psychiatric panel set up under Executive Order 26-192. The panel examined Thompson on Oct 1, and the results were never released. Fox13 says it is unclear whether a new date will be sought. Read as a one-off for a frail 74-year-old, not a Florida pause. Robertson's date was left standing. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-cancels-execution-florida-inmate-claiming-dementia
- [2026-10-06] Guardado's warrant (Nov 5) was signed Oct 5, after the Pike failure of Sept 30. DeSantis was still adding warrants then, and he had signed two in one week. That supports Florida continuing at pace. Fox13 notes his federal habeas claim was already rejected by the 11th Circuit in 2024. Florida uses a different drug protocol (etomidate, rocuronium, potassium acetate), not the pentobarbital that failed in Tennessee. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2026-10-06] Florida's pace gives an upside path. Fox13 counts Guardado as the state's 20th scheduled execution this year, and Florida's 2025 record was 19 executions. Florida warrants have recently run about 12 to 30 days, so a December warrant is feasible. In 2025, DeSantis signed the Geralds warrant (Dec 9) on Nov 7 and Walls (Dec 18) in mid-November. If he repeats that, the total could pass 39 only if Hasan also goes ahead. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-sets-execution-date-man-fatally-shot-man-woman-home-invasion-r-rcna244754
- [2026-10-08] DPI's upcoming-executions page, fetched in full, still lists 9 remaining 2026 dates. It is updated each business day at noon ET. Ohio's dates are flagged as non-operative, and no other state is listed for 2026. That confirms the core case: 30 executed plus up to 8 in FL, TX, OK, AL, IN and the military. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-07] Texas Nov 12 and Nov 19 (Rubio, Dennes) are likely to proceed. In September the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals blocked a Travis County judge's attempt to halt Texas executions over the pentobarbital challenge Rubio filed. Howard was executed with the same drug on Oct 7. Rubio faces the same drug challenge again, but it has already lost at the state's top criminal court. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/2026/09/17/sept-17/
- [2026-10-07] Indiana (Weisheit, Nov 5) was ordered by the state's high court. Oklahoma (Pavatt, Nov 12) is also listed by Wikipedia's schedule with no stay noted. Both are in states that carry out executions, so they are not Ohio-style placeholders. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-09] Hasan may not fight. His civilian lawyer Galligan called a habeas petition "a distinct possibility" but said no decision had been made (ABC). NPR noted that Hasan told the military he could "still be a martyr" if executed. He also offered almost no defense at trial. A non-contesting Hasan makes Dec 3 plausible. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-09] The counterweight on Hasan is that experts say a habeas petition could delay the execution for years, possibly past this administration. Possible challenges to the livestream add further risk. Hasan is the single date most likely to fail, so the realistic range is about 37 if he is stayed and 38 if he is executed. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/09/nx-s1-5996529/firing-squad-livestream-execution-fort-hood-shooter
- [2026-10-12] Mechanically, the leading outcome rests on a high completion rate among the eight active dates. Florida (Robertson, Reaves, Guardado), Texas (Rubio, Dennes), Oklahoma, Indiana and Alabama are all in jurisdictions that carry out executions. Alabama's Taylor is the odd one: its June nitrogen date was blocked by the Supreme Court, per the earlier report. Dropping 1 to 3 of the 8 gives a total of 35 to 37, and 38 only if all eight go ahead. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions

BOTTOM LINE: Official schedules and the pace of Florida warrants put the likeliest 2026 total in the mid-to-high 30s (about 35 to 38). The main swing factors are Hasan's habeas decision and any new December Florida warrants, which could add upside.

NOT FOUND: Robertson's Oct 13 outcome, since it had not happened yet. Any filed Hasan habeas petition or stay. Any December warrant in Florida or Texas. Any published odds on the 2026 total. Any outcome for Thompson's competency review. Any litigation tracker for the Rubio, Weisheit, Taylor or Pavatt dates.

**Case for an upset.** The leader is probably a total in the high 30s, with 38 or 37 the likely modal outcomes. I see two credible upset routes, and both are backed by evidence. The stronger one is a lower total of about 33–36 if Hasan is stayed. The other is 39 or more, if Florida adds warrants.

- [2026-10-08] Hasan's own civilian lawyer, John Galligan, called a federal habeas petition "a distinct possibility" after speaking to Hasan on Oct 7. No decision had been made yet. He also said the Army scheduled the date near the earliest its rules allow, and he objected to moving a paralyzed Hasan from Leavenworth to Fort Hood. This is the first on-record signal from Hasan's side, and it goes beyond the generic "he could file" in the colleagues' reports. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-08] The Army dropped months of lethal-injection planning and has "no modern procedure" for a firing squad. Its old rules (eight riflemen, with blanks mixed in) predate current practice and have not been adapted for a wheelchair user. This is a mechanism for slippage or litigation, and it is separate from habeas. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-07] Yale military-law lecturer Eugene Fidell said a habeas case "can last years." He added that it might outlast the current administration. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/7/questions-procedure-linger-army-moves-execute-fort-hood-shooter/
- [2026-06-?? / undated, ~89 days old] A military-law blog says Hasan can file a §2241 habeas petition in the District of Kansas and seek a stay. It rates his chance of winning as low, but expects the process to take "a few more years." So a stay could come from a filed, pending case without Hasan winning on the merits. https://www.court-martial.com/blog/hasan-military-death-penalty/
- [2026-10-12] Even if Robertson (Oct 13) goes ahead, DeSantis has now withdrawn a warrant for the first time. The Thompson withdrawal gave no reason, and no competency findings were released. It shows the governor will drop a warrant on medical grounds. That is a precedent for a lower total if another elderly or ill inmate is next. William Reaves, 77, is set for Oct 20. https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2026/10/09/desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-74-year-old-man-who-was-set-to-be-executed-tuesday/
- [2026-10-06] Reaves is 77 and the Oct 20 date follows Robertson's by a week. Guardado's warrant (Nov 5) was signed on Oct 5, about 31 days ahead. Florida therefore has a roughly 30-day signing lead. Any warrant signed up to about Dec 1 could still land before Dec 31. That is the route to 39 or more. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2025-11-07 / 2025-11-18] Last year's precedent for late warrants: DeSantis signed warrants on Nov 7 for a Dec 9 execution (Geralds) and, in the second half of November, for Dec 18 (Walls). So Florida did add December executions in 2025 after a similar October schedule. I found no December 2026 Florida warrant yet. https://www.wctv.tv/2025/11/07/gov-desantis-signs-death-warrant-18th-execution-this-year/ and https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-sets-execution-date-man-fatally-shot-man-woman-home-invasion-r-rcna244754
- [2026-10-12] Florida's pace and the Thompson withdrawal imply the state ends the year with the Oct 13, Oct 20 and Nov 5 executions done, so about 19 on that path. DeSantis has signed 20 warrants this year, so the Fox13 "20th execution" figure for Guardado cannot be reconciled with a count of 16 done unless Thompson's withdrawn warrant is included. Florida's 17th on Oct 13 means 31 nationally, and 33 with Reaves and Guardado. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2026-10-08] TDCJ's schedule (last updated Oct 8) shows only two Texas dates left, Rubio (Nov 12) and Dennes (Nov 19). Dennes is 70. Texas has no later 2026 dates listed, so Texas adds nothing to the ceiling unless a new date is set at least 91 days out. Texas law requires about that much notice, so no further Texas dates can arrive in time. https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/death_row/scheduled_executions.html
- [2026-10-08] Death Penalty Action lists Texas's Nov 12 and Nov 19 dates and the Hasan Dec 3 date as active. It also lists many "postponed" Texas cases, which shows Texas dates do get stayed by courts. https://deathpenaltyaction.org/take-action/execution-petitions/
- [2026-10-12] Tennessee's Sutton (Dec 3) is on hold and Tennessee is out. The Wikipedia 2026 list confirms Carruthers got a one-year reprieve after the May IV failure. So no upside from Tennessee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026

BOTTOM LINE: The best-supported upset is a total of 36–37 (Hasan stayed, plus possibly one of the Nov 5 to Nov 19 dates stayed), because Hasan's counsel has publicly kept habeas open, the Army's procedure is improvised, and Hasan's date was set early under the Army's own rules. The opposing upset, 39 or more, needs two new Florida warrants signed by roughly Dec 1, which has precedent from 2025 but has not happened yet, and it would also need the Hasan date to hold.

NOT FOUND: Any filed Hasan habeas petition or stay motion; any Florida warrant for a date after Nov 5; the Oct 13 Robertson result; DPI's live count after Oct 8; any Indiana (Weisheit), Alabama (Taylor) or Oklahoma (Pavatt) litigation status; any forecaster or market pricing.

14 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-12] Failed Execution of Christa Pike Reignites Death Penalty Debate
Vanity Fair Italia — https://www.vanityfair.it/article/il-caso-di-christa-pike-riapre-il-dibattito-sulla-pena-di-morte-esecuzioni-usa
  - The failed execution of Christa Pike on September 30, 2026, in Tennessee has reignited the debate on the death penalty.
  - Pike, who was 18 when she killed her classmate Colleen Slemmer in 1995, was sentenced to death and has spent her adult life in prison.
  - The execution attempt using pentobarbital failed after two doses, leaving Pike unconscious and critically ill before she was transferred to a hospital.
  - Her lawyers reported that she has since regained consciousness and is walking with assistance, though experts suggest the failure may have been due to an intravenous access issue causing the drug to leak into surrounding tissues, potentially leading to burns and neurological damage from oxygen deprivation.
  - Tennessee Governor Bill Lee has suspended executions for the rest of 2026 following this and a previous failed execution of Tony Carruthers in May.
  - The article highlights a history of botched executions, citing William Kemmler's 1890 electric chair execution in New York, John Evans III's 1983 execution in Alabama, and Jesse Tafero's 1990 execution in Florida.
  - It notes that while lethal injection was introduced in 1982 to appear more humane, it has also resulted in failures, including cases involving Doyle Hamm (2018), John Grant (2021), Joe Nathan James (2022), and Thomas Creech (2024).
  - The article also discusses the introduction of nitrogen hypoxia in Alabama in 2024, used on Kenneth Smith, Alan Miller, and Anthony Boyd, which witnesses described as violent and prolonged despite state claims of success.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, between 1890 and 2010, 3.15% of 8,776 documented executions were classified as failed, with lethal injection having a failure rate of 7.2%.
  - Additionally, the article mentions the planned execution of Nidal Hasan for the Fort Hood massacre on December 3, 2026, which will be streamed, a move supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth but criticized as potentially turning justice into a spectacle.

[2026-10-12] US Revives Firing Squads Amid Botched Execution Concerns
BBC — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmpwg28vrexzo
  - On October 12 2026, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the US military will livestream the execution by firing squad of Nidal Hasan, the former military psychiatrist who killed 13 soldiers at Fort Hood in 2009.
  - This marks the first use of a firing squad by the US Army since 1945.
  - The announcement follows the botched lethal injection of Christa Pike, who was hospitalized and later discharged after a failed attempt in which she was heard crying and whimpering.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, there have been 64 botched executions over the past 50 years, including 51 botched lethal injections out of 1,683 total.
  - Medical experts, including Dr. Joel Zivot of Atlanta, Georgia, argue that all execution methods can cause severe pain, especially when botched, citing issues like pulmonary edema in lethal injections and violent thrashing in nitrogen gas executions.
  - Dr. Zivot noted that nitrogen gas executions, used in Alabama and Louisiana, have resulted in seizures and struggle.
  - As of 2026, nine states have approved the electric chair, with South Carolina using it as the default method.
  - Firing squads are now authorized in Idaho, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Utah, and South Carolina.
  - President Trump, who returned to office in 2025 and lifted Biden's 2021 moratorium on federal executions, has called for expanding the death penalty to include drug dealers, human traffickers, and those who kill police officers.
  - Alonzo Lunsford, a survivor of the Fort Hood attack, told the BBC that a firing squad was a 'befitting' method for Hasan.

[2026-10-11] US to Stream Execution of Fort Hood Shooter, Ending Century-Long Ban on Public Capital Punishment
LO_SPECIALE — https://www.lospecialegiornale.it/2026/10/11/dignita-della-morte-e-niente-spettacolo-macabro-perche-ultima-esecuzione-pubblica-negli-usa-risale-al-1936/
  - The US Department of Defense announced on October 11, 2026, its intention to stream the execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, the perpetrator of the Fort Hood shooting, live, marking a potential first for the United States.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, if carried out, this would be the first public execution in the US since 1936, the first military execution since 1961, and the first military firing squad execution since World War II.
  - The last public execution in the US occurred in 1936, involving the hanging of Rainey Bethea in Kentucky, an event attended by 20,000 people; a second public hanging followed in Missouri in 1937.
  - Experts, including Michael L.
  - Radelet of the University of Colorado Boulder, note that public executions ended in the US due to concerns over the 'macabre spectacle' and crowd control.
  - While the US has moved away from public events, Amnesty International reports that at least 17 public executions occurred globally in 2025, with six in Afghanistan and eleven in Iran.
  - In 2026, Iranian state media reported two public executions in Iran of men accused of killing police officers.
  - Human rights advocates, such as Jon Yorke of Birmingham City University and Saul Lehrfreund of the Death Penalty Project, have criticized the US plan, arguing that live streaming undermines the 'dignity of death' and resembles 'Medieval' practices.
  - The article notes that public executions were banned in England in the mid-19th century for similar reasons of crowd control and the perception of executions as entertainment.

[2026-10-11] U.S. Plans to Livestream Execution Would Place It Among Few Nations Conducting Public Capital Punishment
VernonReporter — https://vernonreporter.com/us-plans-for-livestreamed-execution-would-put-it-in-company-with-few-nations/
  - The U.S. is set to join a rare group of nations carrying out public executions if it proceeds with plans to live-stream the military execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter, by firing squad on December 3 at Fort Hood, Texas.
  - This will be the first military execution in over 65 years.
  - According to Amnesty International, only two countries carried out public executions last year: Iran, which executed 11 people publicly, and Afghanistan, which executed six.
  - The Pentagon announced the livestream decision on Thursday, following approval by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had previously criticized public executions in Iran.
  - Hasan was convicted in 2009 for killing 13 people and injuring 32 at the Texas base.
  - The U.S. moved executions behind closed doors nearly a century ago, shifting from hangings and firing squads to methods like the electric chair, gas chamber, and lethal injection.
  - If the U.S. proceeds, it will be in company with Iran and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, both of which have conducted public executions in recent years.
  - Amnesty International reported that in the last four years, public executions were documented only in Iran and Afghanistan, though it does not track executions in China, North Korea, or Vietnam.
  - In 2021, at least nine public executions occurred in Yemen.
  - Iran led global executions with 2,159 in the reported period, though few were public.

[2026-10-10] U.S. Death Penalty Debate: From Lethal Injection to Public Firing Squad
La Opinión Digital — https://laopinion.com/2026/10/10/pena-de-muerte-en-ee-uu-de-la-inyeccion-letal-como-metodo-humano-al-fusilamiento/
  - Since the resumption of the death penalty in the United States in 1976, there have been 1,684 lethal injection executions, 163 by electric chair, 19 by gas chamber, and six by firing squad, according to data cited in the article.
  - The debate over execution methods intensified following the botched lethal injection of Christia Pike in Tennessee, which re-opened discussions on humane methods.
  - The Death Penalty Information Center, a U.S. non-profit founded in 1990, documented 22 failed lethal injection attempts in the last 15 years due to various errors.
  - Complications in obtaining necessary drugs have led states like Utah, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Idaho to reintroduce or prioritize firing squads; Idaho adopted it as the primary method in July 2026.
  - The article highlights cases of suffering during lethal injections, such as Tony Carruther in Tennessee, whose execution was halted after 90 minutes of attempts to find veins, and Dyke Lee Hamm in 2018, who suffered 12 puncture marks, including in the groin and bladder, before his execution was suspended at midnight.
  - Hamm later died of brain cancer in 2021.
  - The U.S. Supreme Court acknowledged in a 2008 ruling that while lethal injection is considered more 'humane,' it carries an inherent risk of pain due to potential procedural errors.
  - Drug shortages have forced states like Texas to source lethal drugs from pharmacies with safety violations.
  - Additionally, Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth announced a public firing squad execution scheduled for December 3, 2026, for Malin Hasan, the former Army psychiatrist who killed 13 people in a 2009 mass shooting at Fort Hood.
  - If carried out, this will be the first military execution by firing squad since World War II and the first uniformed execution since 1961, when a condemned man was hanged.

[2026-10-10] US Secretary of Defense Hegseth Announces Live Execution of Fort Hood Shooter Nidal Hasan on December 3, 2026
quotidiano.net — https://www.quotidiano.net/esteri/giusto-mostrare-lesecuzione-solo-cosi-gli-americani-faranno-i-conti-con-la-loro-barbarie-xuts4xkj
  - On October 10, 2026, the US Department of Defense announced that Nidal Malik Hasan, a military psychiatrist responsible for the Fort Hood massacre that killed 13 soldiers, will be executed by firing squad on December 3, 2026.
  - The execution will be broadcast live on television, a measure proposed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to ensure public visibility of the penalty.
  - The article characterizes the execution method as 'barbaric' and notes that the practice of the death penalty remains active in 23 states, abolished in 23 states, and under executive moratorium in 4 states.
  - The article also references a failed execution of Christa Pike, stating that the botched procedure was not an accident and that retrying the execution would be unconstitutional.

[2026-10-10] Rise in US Executions and Firing Squad Use in 2025-2026
de Volkskrant — https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/toename-executies-in-de-vs-vuurpeloton-in-2025-drie-keer-ingezet~be970076/
  - As of October 10, 2026, 30 death row inmates have been executed in the United States in 2026, according to de Volkskrant.
  - On December 3, 2026, the first public execution in the US since 1936 is scheduled to take place, where Nidal Hasan will be executed by firing squad, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
  - The use of a firing squad for military executions has not occurred since 1945, but states are permitted to use it; in South Carolina, inmates have been allowed to choose this method since 2021, and three inmates chose it in 2025, with two reportedly fearing the 'torture' of other methods.
  - During his first term, the federal government carried out 13 executions, the highest number in 50 years, all in the last half of the term.
  - President Biden commuted the death sentences of 37 of the 40 federal death row inmates to life imprisonment.
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty is observed, an event organized since 2003 by the World Coalition Against the Death Penalty, which considers the death penalty inhumane.
  - According to Amnesty International, at least 2,707 executions occurred globally in 2025, the highest number since 1981, with over 2,000 in Iran.
  - China's execution numbers remain state secrets, though Amnesty International suspects thousands of executions there.

[2026-10-10] Global Death Penalty Executions Surge to Record Levels in 2025 and 2026
Sky — https://tg24.sky.it/mondo/2026/10/10/giornata-contro-pena-morte-dati-2026
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty was observed, highlighting a surge in global executions.
  - According to Amnesty International, 2025 was a record year with 2,707 executions, the highest since 1981, representing a 78% increase from 2024.
  - For the current year, 2026, the organization 'Nessuno Tocchi Caino' (No One Touch Cain) has counted 1,547 confirmed executions as of the report date.
  - Iran remains the primary driver of this increase, responsible for at least 2,159 executions in 2025 (doubling the previous year's figure) and 869 executions in 2026.
  - Other nations with significant increases include Saudi Arabia (356 in 2025), Kuwait (tripled to 17), Egypt (doubled to 23), Singapore (doubled to 17), and the United States (doubled to 47).
  - Drug-related offenses accounted for 46% of executions in 2025.
  - While 113 countries have abolished the death penalty, 17 states continue to carry out executions.
  - In the US, Governor Ron DeSantis has accelerated executions in Florida, which set a new record with 19 executions in 2026, surpassing the 1936 record.
  - A notable recent event involved Christa Pike, who survived a double lethal injection in Tennessee on September 30, 2026, following her 1999 conviction for murder.
  - Additionally, US President Donald Trump has approved the execution of Nidal Hasan by firing squad, marking the first military execution in the US since 1961, a move supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

[2026-10-01] Florida Leads U.S. in Executions in 2026 with 16, Surpassing All Other States Combined
Men's Journal — https://www.mensjournal.com/news/florida-has-carried-out-more-executions-than-every-other-state-combined-in-2026
  - As of October 1, 2026, Florida has carried out 16 executions in 2026, a total that exceeds the combined number of executions in all other U.S. states this year, according to a Men's Journal article.
  - This marks a sharp increase from the 19 executions Florida conducted in 2025 and just one in 2024.
  - Over the past two years, 35 prisoners have been executed in the state, with a consistent rate maintained for 18 months.
  - The article suggests President Trump may be a contributing factor, noting he signed an executive order titled 'Restoring the Death Penalty and Protecting Public Safety' in January 2025.
  - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, during his second term, has overseen several lethal injections, including that of James Duckett, a former police officer convicted of murdering an 11-year-old girl in the 1980s.
  - Notably, Florida executed two men in July 2026, one of whom was the second octogenarian to receive the death penalty in 50 years.
  - In contrast, Texas has executed 602 prisoners since 1976 but has seen its annual numbers decline to six in 2026.
  - Oklahoma executed three inmates in 2026, and Alabama executed at least one, according to the Death Penalty Information Center.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Hit 15-Year High in 2025 with Florida Leading Surge
euronews — https://tr.euronews.com/2026/09/03/abdde-idamlar-son-15-yilin-en-yuksek-seviyesine-cikti
  - According to data reported by euronews, the United States executed 47 people in 2025, marking the highest annual number of executions since 2009.
  - This represents a significant increase from the 25 executions carried out in 2024.
  - The primary driver of this surge was Florida, which conducted 19 executions, accounting for 40% of the national total.
  - The executions in 2025 were distributed across 11 states.
  - The high tempo continued into 2026; as of September 1, 2026, 24 executions had taken place nationwide, with Florida alone responsible for 14 of them.
  - Additionally, on August 13, 2026, executions were carried out simultaneously in three states—Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma—for the first time since 2010.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Surge in 2026 with Florida Leading Under Trump Administration
RT en Español — https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/625775-nueva-ola-ejecuciones-recorre-eeuu
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC), the United States has carried out 24 executions so far in 2026, with Florida leading the nation by conducting 14 of them.
  - On Tuesday, Florida executed Harold Lucas, a 74-year-old man convicted of a 1976 homicide, marking the state's 14th execution of the year.
  - In 2025, the U.S. recorded 47 executions, the highest number since 2009.
  - Robin Maher, executive director of the DPIC, told Axios that this increase reflects the Trump Administration's enthusiasm and insistence on more frequent use of the death penalty.
  - The Trump Administration officially reinstated the federal death penalty in 2025 after a four-year moratorium under the Joe Biden administration, having previously restored it in 2019 during its first term.
  - Despite the rise in executions, 2026 figures remain lower than the late 1990s, when 98 executions occurred in 1999.
  - Maher noted that most juries in death penalty cases now impose life imprisonment rather than the death penalty, and public awareness that 'the system makes mistakes' is affecting support for capital punishment.

[2026-08-14] Three Executions on Same Day Spark US Death Penalty Debate
Brasil 247 — https://www.brasil247.com/mundo/tres-execucoes-no-mesmo-dia-ampliam-debate-sobre-pena-de-morte-nos-eua/
  - Three executions scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2026, in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Alabama have reignited the debate over the death penalty in the United States, according to the news outlet Brasil 247.
  - This marks the first time since 2010 that three executions are scheduled for the same day.
  - If carried out, the total number of executions in 2026 will reach 22.
  - In 2025, 47 executions were recorded, the highest number in 17 years, with 19 already executed in 2026.
  - The executions are concentrated in a few states, including Florida, where Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has driven the policy.
  - In Tennessee, Anthony Darrell Hines is scheduled to be executed for the 1985 murder of Catherine Jean Jenkins, a 54-year-old hotel maid.
  - In Alabama, 42-year-old Jeremy Williams will receive a lethal injection for the 2021 rape and murder of a five-year-old girl; he pleaded guilty, filed no appeals, and requested execution.
  - In Oklahoma, 70-year-old Carlos Cuesta-Rodriguez will be executed for the 2003 shooting death of his girlfriend, Olimpia Fisher; he will be the third person executed in the state in 2026 and the 20th under Republican Governor Kevin Stitt.
  - By 2026, six states are expected to have carried out executions, up from 11 states in 2025.

[… older articles omitted]

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: DPIC's 'Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2026' page (last updated October 8, 2026) says 58 execution dates were scheduled for 2026 by 9 states and the U.S. Military. It reports 30 executions carried out and 19 death warrants inactive. The Upcoming Executions page lists 9 more executions between October 13 and December 31, 2026, including the military execution of Nidal Malik Hasan on December 3. If all 9 go ahead, the total would be 39.
  Last updated: October 8, 2026 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The running total is 30 as of Oct 8, 2026. The next scheduled execution is Oct 13, so none were due between Oct 8 and today (Oct 12). The year-end total depends on what happens with the 9 remaining warrants: FL ×3, TX ×2, IN, AL, OK and Military. The Hasan military execution counts under the fine print even if DPIC leaves it out of its own total. The 30 figure is the aggregate count on the outcomes page; the execution database table itself did not load.
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026 (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (19 results):
## Query 1: Florida, DeSantis death warrant, November/December 2026

**Latest warrant: Jesse Guardado, execution set for Nov. 5, 2026**
- 
On Monday, Oct. 5, DeSantis signed a warrant for Jesse Guardado, 64. He is to be executed Nov. 5 at Florida State Prison for the 2004 murder of a Walton County woman.
 
The execution is set for 6 p.m. The victim was 75-year-old Jackie Malone.

- 
Guardado would be the 20th person put to death in Florida this year. That tops the 19 carried out in 2025.
 
The 2025 total was the most in a single year since capital punishment was revived in 1976.

- 
This depends on three other executions scheduled for October going forward first.

- 
His attorneys have filed a complaint challenging Florida's lethal injection protocol. As of that report, the U.S. District Court for the Middle District had not ruled on it.

- **Discrepancy:** 
WCTV called Guardado Florida's 17th execution this year and cited 16 so far per the Death Penalty Information Center.
 Most other outlets say 20th. The difference is probably whether the October executions are counted.

**Other Florida dates**
- 
James Robertson, 63, is set for Oct. 13. He was convicted of murdering his cellmate, Frank Hart, in 2008.

- 
William Reaves Jr. is scheduled for Oct. 20.

- **Withdrawn:** 
DeSantis withdrew the warrant for William Lee Thompson, 74, who was to be executed Oct. 13. His letter to the prison warden gave no reason. Counsel and death-penalty opponents had reported dementia and heart failure.
 
DeSantis had earlier appointed a three-member panel of psychiatrists to examine Thompson's mental condition.


**December 2026:** I found no Florida warrant for a December execution in these results. The only December dates listed nationally are non-Florida: 
Nidal Hasan (U.S. military, Dec. 3, firing squad).
 A Tennessee execution is also listed for that day (see below).

**Sources:**
- https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-20th-death-warrant-jesse-guardado-florida-2026-execution-record/
- https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-05/desantis-signs-warrant-for-record-20th-execution-in-florida-this-year
- https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/florida-could-break-execution-record-after-desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant/
- https://www.wjhg.com/2026/10/06/florida-continues-lead-nation-executions-this-year-desantis-signs-latest-death-warrant/
- https://wiod.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2026-10-06-desantis-signs-warrant-for-record-20th-execution-of-2026/
- https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2026/10/09/desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-74-year-old-man-who-was-set-to-be-executed-tuesday/
- https://hoodline.com/2026/10/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-of-2026-florida-nears-record-execution-pace/

---

## Query 2: Executions stayed, rescheduled or new dates, October 2026

**Florida**
- **Thompson warrant withdrawn (Oct. 8–9):** See above. 
Newsweek reports DeSantis had temporarily stayed the execution in September over competency concerns. The results of th

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (2 lookups):

  List of people executed in the United States in 2026:
  To date, thirty people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
  Detail: To date, thirty people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
Harold Gene Lucas, one of Florida's longest-serving prisoners on death row, was executed nearly 50 years after he was convicted of the 1976 murder of his 16-year-old ex-girlfriend Jill Piper. 
James Aren Duckett and Dominick Anthony Occhicone were executed five hours apart on the same date of July 28, 2026. This was the first double execution carried out in a single day in a U.S. death penalty state since Arkansas executed Jack Harold Jones and Marcel Wayne Williams in 2017 and the first in Florida since 1964. At the same time, Occhicone became the oldest person to be executed in Florida at the age of 80.
Charles Lee Burton was originally scheduled to be executed in Alabama by nitrogen hypoxia on March 12, 2026. His death sentence was commuted to life without parole by Governor Kay Ivey just two days before his scheduled execution. 
Tony Von Carruthers, who was originally scheduled to be executed in Tennessee on May 21, 2026, received a one-year reprieve from Governor Bill Lee after complications with setting IV lines prior to the execution. Another Tennessee inmate, Christa Gail Pike...

  List of people executed in the United States in 2025:
  


Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
  Detail: Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
The state of South Carolina carried out the executions of three inmates by firing squad, marking the first three executions by firing squad since 2010, when Ronnie Lee Gardner was executed in Utah by firing squad (all three inmates chose the method).
The state of Louisiana conducted its first execution in 15 years since 2010; the person executed, Jessie Hoffman Jr., was additionally the first to be executed by nitrogen gas in Louisiana, which became the second state after Alabama to conduct nitrogen gas executions. Arizona carried out the first executions in a state with a Democratic governor in office since 2017. The state of Mississippi carried out the execution of the state's longest-serving death row inmate Richard Gerald Jordan after he spent 49 years on death row. Edward Zakrzewski II was the ninth person put to death in Florida, marking a post-Furman record year of executions for the state since 2014; while the...

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The US death-row population has declined for 20 consecutive years, with around 2,100 [prisoners currently facing execution](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/death-row/overview). However, capital punishment remains in the headlines, in part due to [Florida's increasing numbers of executions](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/magazine/florida-death-penalty.html). In mid August, [Florida executed its 13th death row prisoner of the year](https://apnews.com/article/florida-execution-william-silvia-9ece9e5bba0484cdd83e53fd0918145a). Texas remains the state with the most executions since the reinstatement of the death penalty in the 1970s.

Not all executions that are planned go ahead [on schedule](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026), either due to reprieves, appeals, executive orders, or in the case of [Christa Pike in Tennessee](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/tag/christa-pike), a failed execution. A review was called for by the Governor and [the Department of Correction Commissioner resigned](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/us/tennessee-prison-commissioner-resigns-christa-pike.html). However, [the 30th person executed of the year](https://www.local10.com/news/2026/10/07/texas-carries-out-nations-first-execution-since-christa-pikes-failed-lethal-injection/) occurred a week later in Texas. 

[Nine more executions are scheduled](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions) to take place between October 13 and December 31, 2026. If they all go ahead, the total for the nation in 2026 would be 39.

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the total number of people in the United States who were executed by state and federal governmental authorities in 2026, according to the [Death Penalty Information Center](https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/executions) (DPIC). 

## Fine Print
This question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). Please note that US military executions count even if they are not included in the DPIC total.

## Options
  - Fewer than 39
  - 39
  - 40
  - 41
  - More than 41

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: DPIC's 'Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2026' page (last updated October 8, 2026) says 58 execution dates were scheduled for 2026 by 9 states and the U.S. Military. It reports 30 executions carried out and 19 death warrants inactive. The Upcoming Executions page lists 9 more executions between October 13 and December 31, 2026, including the military execution of Nidal Malik Hasan on December 3. If all 9 go ahead, the total would be 39.
  Last updated: October 8, 2026 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The running total is 30 as of Oct 8, 2026. The next scheduled execution is Oct 13, so none were due between Oct 8 and today (Oct 12). The year-end total depends on what happens with the 9 remaining warrants: FL ×3, TX ×2, IN, AL, OK and Military. The Hasan military execution counts under the fine print even if DPIC leaves it out of its own total. The 30 figure is the aggregate count on the outcomes page; the execution database table itself did not load.
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026 (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (19 results):
## Query 1: Florida, DeSantis death warrant, November/December 2026

**Latest warrant: Jesse Guardado, execution set for Nov. 5, 2026**
- 
On Monday, Oct. 5, DeSantis signed a warrant for Jesse Guardado, 64. He is to be executed Nov. 5 at Florida State Prison for the 2004 murder of a Walton County woman.
 
The execution is set for 6 p.m. The victim was 75-year-old Jackie Malone.

- 
Guardado would be the 20th person put to death in Florida this year. That tops the 19 carried out in 2025.
 
The 2025 total was the most in a single year since capital punishment was revived in 1976.

- 
This depends on three other executions scheduled for October going forward first.

- 
His attorneys have filed a complaint challenging Florida's lethal injection protocol. As of that report, the U.S. District Court for the Middle District had not ruled on it.

- **Discrepancy:** 
WCTV called Guardado Florida's 17th execution this year and cited 16 so far per the Death Penalty Information Center.
 Most other outlets say 20th. The difference is probably whether the October executions are counted.

**Other Florida dates**
- 
James Robertson, 63, is set for Oct. 13. He was convicted of murdering his cellmate, Frank Hart, in 2008.

- 
William Reaves Jr. is scheduled for Oct. 20.

- **Withdrawn:** 
DeSantis withdrew the warrant for William Lee Thompson, 74, who was to be executed Oct. 13. His letter to the prison warden gave no reason. Counsel and death-penalty opponents had reported dementia and heart failure.
 
DeSantis had earlier appointed a three-member panel of psychiatrists to examine Thompson's mental condition.


**December 2026:** I found no Florida warrant for a December execution in these results. The only December dates listed nationally are non-Florida: 
Nidal Hasan (U.S. military, Dec. 3, firing squad).
 A Tennessee execution is also listed for that day (see below).

**Sources:**
- https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-20th-death-warrant-jesse-guardado-florida-2026-execution-record/
- https://www.wusf.org/courts-law/2026-10-05/desantis-signs-warrant-for-record-20th-execution-in-florida-this-year
- https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/florida-could-break-execution-record-after-desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant/
- https://www.wjhg.com/2026/10/06/florida-continues-lead-nation-executions-this-year-desantis-signs-latest-death-warrant/
- https://wiod.iheart.com/featured/florida-news/content/2026-10-06-desantis-signs-warrant-for-record-20th-execution-of-2026/
- https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2026/10/09/desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-74-year-old-man-who-was-set-to-be-executed-tuesday/
- https://hoodline.com/2026/10/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-of-2026-florida-nears-record-execution-pace/

---

## Query 2: Executions stayed, rescheduled or new dates, October 2026

**Florida**
- **Thompson warrant withdrawn (Oct. 8–9):** See above. 
Newsweek reports DeSantis had temporarily stayed the execution in September over competency concerns. The results of th

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (2 lookups):

  List of people executed in the United States in 2026:
  To date, thirty people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
  Detail: To date, thirty people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2026, all by lethal injection.
Harold Gene Lucas, one of Florida's longest-serving prisoners on death row, was executed nearly 50 years after he was convicted of the 1976 murder of his 16-year-old ex-girlfriend Jill Piper. 
James Aren Duckett and Dominick Anthony Occhicone were executed five hours apart on the same date of July 28, 2026. This was the first double execution carried out in a single day in a U.S. death penalty state since Arkansas executed Jack Harold Jones and Marcel Wayne Williams in 2017 and the first in Florida since 1964. At the same time, Occhicone became the oldest person to be executed in Florida at the age of 80.
Charles Lee Burton was originally scheduled to be executed in Alabama by nitrogen hypoxia on March 12, 2026. His death sentence was commuted to life without parole by Governor Kay Ivey just two days before his scheduled execution. 
Tony Von Carruthers, who was originally scheduled to be executed in Tennessee on May 21, 2026, received a one-year reprieve from Governor Bill Lee after complications with setting IV lines prior to the execution. Another Tennessee inmate, Christa Gail Pike...

  List of people executed in the United States in 2025:
  


Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
  Detail: Forty-seven people, all male, were executed in the United States in 2025, thirty-nine by lethal injection, five by nitrogen hypoxia, and three by firing squad. The number of executions in 2025 became the highest number to be carried out in the United States in 16 years.
The state of South Carolina carried out the executions of three inmates by firing squad, marking the first three executions by firing squad since 2010, when Ronnie Lee Gardner was executed in Utah by firing squad (all three inmates chose the method).
The state of Louisiana conducted its first execution in 15 years since 2010; the person executed, Jessie Hoffman Jr., was additionally the first to be executed by nitrogen gas in Louisiana, which became the second state after Alabama to conduct nitrogen gas executions. Arizona carried out the first executions in a state with a Democratic governor in office since 2017. The state of Mississippi carried out the execution of the state's longest-serving death row inmate Richard Gerald Jordan after he spent 49 years on death row. Edward Zakrzewski II was the ninth person put to death in Florida, marking a post-Furman record year of executions for the state since 2014; while the...

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-12; forecasting closes 2026-12-02; resolves 2027-01-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
14 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-12] Failed Execution of Christa Pike Reignites Death Penalty Debate
Vanity Fair Italia — https://www.vanityfair.it/article/il-caso-di-christa-pike-riapre-il-dibattito-sulla-pena-di-morte-esecuzioni-usa
  - The failed execution of Christa Pike on September 30, 2026, in Tennessee has reignited the debate on the death penalty.
  - Pike, who was 18 when she killed her classmate Colleen Slemmer in 1995, was sentenced to death and has spent her adult life in prison.
  - The execution attempt using pentobarbital failed after two doses, leaving Pike unconscious and critically ill before she was transferred to a hospital.
  - Her lawyers reported that she has since regained consciousness and is walking with assistance, though experts suggest the failure may have been due to an intravenous access issue causing the drug to leak into surrounding tissues, potentially leading to burns and neurological damage from oxygen deprivation.
  - Tennessee Governor Bill Lee has suspended executions for the rest of 2026 following this and a previous failed execution of Tony Carruthers in May.
  - The article highlights a history of botched executions, citing William Kemmler's 1890 electric chair execution in New York, John Evans III's 1983 execution in Alabama, and Jesse Tafero's 1990 execution in Florida.
  - It notes that while lethal injection was introduced in 1982 to appear more humane, it has also resulted in failures, including cases involving Doyle Hamm (2018), John Grant (2021), Joe Nathan James (2022), and Thomas Creech (2024).
  - The article also discusses the introduction of nitrogen hypoxia in Alabama in 2024, used on Kenneth Smith, Alan Miller, and Anthony Boyd, which witnesses described as violent and prolonged despite state claims of success.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, between 1890 and 2010, 3.15% of 8,776 documented executions were classified as failed, with lethal injection having a failure rate of 7.2%.
  - Additionally, the article mentions the planned execution of Nidal Hasan for the Fort Hood massacre on December 3, 2026, which will be streamed, a move supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth but criticized as potentially turning justice into a spectacle.

[2026-10-12] US Revives Firing Squads Amid Botched Execution Concerns
BBC — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmpwg28vrexzo
  - On October 12 2026, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the US military will livestream the execution by firing squad of Nidal Hasan, the former military psychiatrist who killed 13 soldiers at Fort Hood in 2009.
  - This marks the first use of a firing squad by the US Army since 1945.
  - The announcement follows the botched lethal injection of Christa Pike, who was hospitalized and later discharged after a failed attempt in which she was heard crying and whimpering.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, there have been 64 botched executions over the past 50 years, including 51 botched lethal injections out of 1,683 total.
  - Medical experts, including Dr. Joel Zivot of Atlanta, Georgia, argue that all execution methods can cause severe pain, especially when botched, citing issues like pulmonary edema in lethal injections and violent thrashing in nitrogen gas executions.
  - Dr. Zivot noted that nitrogen gas executions, used in Alabama and Louisiana, have resulted in seizures and struggle.
  - As of 2026, nine states have approved the electric chair, with South Carolina using it as the default method.
  - Firing squads are now authorized in Idaho, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Utah, and South Carolina.
  - President Trump, who returned to office in 2025 and lifted Biden's 2021 moratorium on federal executions, has called for expanding the death penalty to include drug dealers, human traffickers, and those who kill police officers.
  - Alonzo Lunsford, a survivor of the Fort Hood attack, told the BBC that a firing squad was a 'befitting' method for Hasan.

[2026-10-11] US to Stream Execution of Fort Hood Shooter, Ending Century-Long Ban on Public Capital Punishment
LO_SPECIALE — https://www.lospecialegiornale.it/2026/10/11/dignita-della-morte-e-niente-spettacolo-macabro-perche-ultima-esecuzione-pubblica-negli-usa-risale-al-1936/
  - The US Department of Defense announced on October 11, 2026, its intention to stream the execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, the perpetrator of the Fort Hood shooting, live, marking a potential first for the United States.
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center, if carried out, this would be the first public execution in the US since 1936, the first military execution since 1961, and the first military firing squad execution since World War II.
  - The last public execution in the US occurred in 1936, involving the hanging of Rainey Bethea in Kentucky, an event attended by 20,000 people; a second public hanging followed in Missouri in 1937.
  - Experts, including Michael L.
  - Radelet of the University of Colorado Boulder, note that public executions ended in the US due to concerns over the 'macabre spectacle' and crowd control.
  - While the US has moved away from public events, Amnesty International reports that at least 17 public executions occurred globally in 2025, with six in Afghanistan and eleven in Iran.
  - In 2026, Iranian state media reported two public executions in Iran of men accused of killing police officers.
  - Human rights advocates, such as Jon Yorke of Birmingham City University and Saul Lehrfreund of the Death Penalty Project, have criticized the US plan, arguing that live streaming undermines the 'dignity of death' and resembles 'Medieval' practices.
  - The article notes that public executions were banned in England in the mid-19th century for similar reasons of crowd control and the perception of executions as entertainment.

[2026-10-11] U.S. Plans to Livestream Execution Would Place It Among Few Nations Conducting Public Capital Punishment
VernonReporter — https://vernonreporter.com/us-plans-for-livestreamed-execution-would-put-it-in-company-with-few-nations/
  - The U.S. is set to join a rare group of nations carrying out public executions if it proceeds with plans to live-stream the military execution of Nidal Malik Hasan, the Fort Hood shooter, by firing squad on December 3 at Fort Hood, Texas.
  - This will be the first military execution in over 65 years.
  - According to Amnesty International, only two countries carried out public executions last year: Iran, which executed 11 people publicly, and Afghanistan, which executed six.
  - The Pentagon announced the livestream decision on Thursday, following approval by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had previously criticized public executions in Iran.
  - Hasan was convicted in 2009 for killing 13 people and injuring 32 at the Texas base.
  - The U.S. moved executions behind closed doors nearly a century ago, shifting from hangings and firing squads to methods like the electric chair, gas chamber, and lethal injection.
  - If the U.S. proceeds, it will be in company with Iran and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, both of which have conducted public executions in recent years.
  - Amnesty International reported that in the last four years, public executions were documented only in Iran and Afghanistan, though it does not track executions in China, North Korea, or Vietnam.
  - In 2021, at least nine public executions occurred in Yemen.
  - Iran led global executions with 2,159 in the reported period, though few were public.

[2026-10-10] U.S. Death Penalty Debate: From Lethal Injection to Public Firing Squad
La Opinión Digital — https://laopinion.com/2026/10/10/pena-de-muerte-en-ee-uu-de-la-inyeccion-letal-como-metodo-humano-al-fusilamiento/
  - Since the resumption of the death penalty in the United States in 1976, there have been 1,684 lethal injection executions, 163 by electric chair, 19 by gas chamber, and six by firing squad, according to data cited in the article.
  - The debate over execution methods intensified following the botched lethal injection of Christia Pike in Tennessee, which re-opened discussions on humane methods.
  - The Death Penalty Information Center, a U.S. non-profit founded in 1990, documented 22 failed lethal injection attempts in the last 15 years due to various errors.
  - Complications in obtaining necessary drugs have led states like Utah, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Idaho to reintroduce or prioritize firing squads; Idaho adopted it as the primary method in July 2026.
  - The article highlights cases of suffering during lethal injections, such as Tony Carruther in Tennessee, whose execution was halted after 90 minutes of attempts to find veins, and Dyke Lee Hamm in 2018, who suffered 12 puncture marks, including in the groin and bladder, before his execution was suspended at midnight.
  - Hamm later died of brain cancer in 2021.
  - The U.S. Supreme Court acknowledged in a 2008 ruling that while lethal injection is considered more 'humane,' it carries an inherent risk of pain due to potential procedural errors.
  - Drug shortages have forced states like Texas to source lethal drugs from pharmacies with safety violations.
  - Additionally, Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth announced a public firing squad execution scheduled for December 3, 2026, for Malin Hasan, the former Army psychiatrist who killed 13 people in a 2009 mass shooting at Fort Hood.
  - If carried out, this will be the first military execution by firing squad since World War II and the first uniformed execution since 1961, when a condemned man was hanged.

[2026-10-10] US Secretary of Defense Hegseth Announces Live Execution of Fort Hood Shooter Nidal Hasan on December 3, 2026
quotidiano.net — https://www.quotidiano.net/esteri/giusto-mostrare-lesecuzione-solo-cosi-gli-americani-faranno-i-conti-con-la-loro-barbarie-xuts4xkj
  - On October 10, 2026, the US Department of Defense announced that Nidal Malik Hasan, a military psychiatrist responsible for the Fort Hood massacre that killed 13 soldiers, will be executed by firing squad on December 3, 2026.
  - The execution will be broadcast live on television, a measure proposed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to ensure public visibility of the penalty.
  - The article characterizes the execution method as 'barbaric' and notes that the practice of the death penalty remains active in 23 states, abolished in 23 states, and under executive moratorium in 4 states.
  - The article also references a failed execution of Christa Pike, stating that the botched procedure was not an accident and that retrying the execution would be unconstitutional.

[2026-10-10] Rise in US Executions and Firing Squad Use in 2025-2026
de Volkskrant — https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/toename-executies-in-de-vs-vuurpeloton-in-2025-drie-keer-ingezet~be970076/
  - As of October 10, 2026, 30 death row inmates have been executed in the United States in 2026, according to de Volkskrant.
  - On December 3, 2026, the first public execution in the US since 1936 is scheduled to take place, where Nidal Hasan will be executed by firing squad, according to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
  - The use of a firing squad for military executions has not occurred since 1945, but states are permitted to use it; in South Carolina, inmates have been allowed to choose this method since 2021, and three inmates chose it in 2025, with two reportedly fearing the 'torture' of other methods.
  - During his first term, the federal government carried out 13 executions, the highest number in 50 years, all in the last half of the term.
  - President Biden commuted the death sentences of 37 of the 40 federal death row inmates to life imprisonment.
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty is observed, an event organized since 2003 by the World Coalition Against the Death Penalty, which considers the death penalty inhumane.
  - According to Amnesty International, at least 2,707 executions occurred globally in 2025, the highest number since 1981, with over 2,000 in Iran.
  - China's execution numbers remain state secrets, though Amnesty International suspects thousands of executions there.

[2026-10-10] Global Death Penalty Executions Surge to Record Levels in 2025 and 2026
Sky — https://tg24.sky.it/mondo/2026/10/10/giornata-contro-pena-morte-dati-2026
  - On October 10, 2026, the World Day Against the Death Penalty was observed, highlighting a surge in global executions.
  - According to Amnesty International, 2025 was a record year with 2,707 executions, the highest since 1981, representing a 78% increase from 2024.
  - For the current year, 2026, the organization 'Nessuno Tocchi Caino' (No One Touch Cain) has counted 1,547 confirmed executions as of the report date.
  - Iran remains the primary driver of this increase, responsible for at least 2,159 executions in 2025 (doubling the previous year's figure) and 869 executions in 2026.
  - Other nations with significant increases include Saudi Arabia (356 in 2025), Kuwait (tripled to 17), Egypt (doubled to 23), Singapore (doubled to 17), and the United States (doubled to 47).
  - Drug-related offenses accounted for 46% of executions in 2025.
  - While 113 countries have abolished the death penalty, 17 states continue to carry out executions.
  - In the US, Governor Ron DeSantis has accelerated executions in Florida, which set a new record with 19 executions in 2026, surpassing the 1936 record.
  - A notable recent event involved Christa Pike, who survived a double lethal injection in Tennessee on September 30, 2026, following her 1999 conviction for murder.
  - Additionally, US President Donald Trump has approved the execution of Nidal Hasan by firing squad, marking the first military execution in the US since 1961, a move supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

[2026-10-01] Florida Leads U.S. in Executions in 2026 with 16, Surpassing All Other States Combined
Men's Journal — https://www.mensjournal.com/news/florida-has-carried-out-more-executions-than-every-other-state-combined-in-2026
  - As of October 1, 2026, Florida has carried out 16 executions in 2026, a total that exceeds the combined number of executions in all other U.S. states this year, according to a Men's Journal article.
  - This marks a sharp increase from the 19 executions Florida conducted in 2025 and just one in 2024.
  - Over the past two years, 35 prisoners have been executed in the state, with a consistent rate maintained for 18 months.
  - The article suggests President Trump may be a contributing factor, noting he signed an executive order titled 'Restoring the Death Penalty and Protecting Public Safety' in January 2025.
  - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, during his second term, has overseen several lethal injections, including that of James Duckett, a former police officer convicted of murdering an 11-year-old girl in the 1980s.
  - Notably, Florida executed two men in July 2026, one of whom was the second octogenarian to receive the death penalty in 50 years.
  - In contrast, Texas has executed 602 prisoners since 1976 but has seen its annual numbers decline to six in 2026.
  - Oklahoma executed three inmates in 2026, and Alabama executed at least one, according to the Death Penalty Information Center.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Hit 15-Year High in 2025 with Florida Leading Surge
euronews — https://tr.euronews.com/2026/09/03/abdde-idamlar-son-15-yilin-en-yuksek-seviyesine-cikti
  - According to data reported by euronews, the United States executed 47 people in 2025, marking the highest annual number of executions since 2009.
  - This represents a significant increase from the 25 executions carried out in 2024.
  - The primary driver of this surge was Florida, which conducted 19 executions, accounting for 40% of the national total.
  - The executions in 2025 were distributed across 11 states.
  - The high tempo continued into 2026; as of September 1, 2026, 24 executions had taken place nationwide, with Florida alone responsible for 14 of them.
  - Additionally, on August 13, 2026, executions were carried out simultaneously in three states—Tennessee, Alabama, and Oklahoma—for the first time since 2010.

[2026-09-03] US Executions Surge in 2026 with Florida Leading Under Trump Administration
RT en Español — https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/625775-nueva-ola-ejecuciones-recorre-eeuu
  - According to the Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC), the United States has carried out 24 executions so far in 2026, with Florida leading the nation by conducting 14 of them.
  - On Tuesday, Florida executed Harold Lucas, a 74-year-old man convicted of a 1976 homicide, marking the state's 14th execution of the year.
  - In 2025, the U.S. recorded 47 executions, the highest number since 2009.
  - Robin Maher, executive director of the DPIC, told Axios that this increase reflects the Trump Administration's enthusiasm and insistence on more frequent use of the death penalty.
  - The Trump Administration officially reinstated the federal death penalty in 2025 after a four-year moratorium under the Joe Biden administration, having previously restored it in 2019 during its first term.
  - Despite the rise in executions, 2026 figures remain lower than the late 1990s, when 98 executions occurred in 1999.
  - Maher noted that most juries in death penalty cases now impose life imprisonment rather than the death penalty, and public awareness that 'the system makes mistakes' is affecting support for capital punishment.

[2026-08-14] Three Executions on Same Day Spark US Death Penalty Debate
Brasil 247 — https://www.brasil247.com/mundo/tres-execucoes-no-mesmo-dia-ampliam-debate-sobre-pena-de-morte-nos-eua/
  - Three executions scheduled for Thursday, August 13, 2026, in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Alabama have reignited the debate over the death penalty in the United States, according to the news outlet Brasil 247.
  - This marks the first time since 2010 that three executions are scheduled for the same day.
  - If carried out, the total number of executions in 2026 will reach 22.
  - In 2025, 47 executions were recorded, the highest number in 17 years, with 19 already executed in 2026.
  - The executions are concentrated in a few states, including Florida, where Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has driven the policy.
  - In Tennessee, Anthony Darrell Hines is scheduled to be executed for the 1985 murder of Catherine Jean Jenkins, a 54-year-old hotel maid.
  - In Alabama, 42-year-old Jeremy Williams will receive a lethal injection for the 2021 rape and murder of a five-year-old girl; he pleaded guilty, filed no appeals, and requested execution.
  - In Oklahoma, 70-year-old Carlos Cuesta-Rodriguez will be executed for the 2003 shooting death of his girlfriend, Olimpia Fisher; he will be the third person executed in the state in 2026 and the 20th under Republican Governor Kevin Stitt.
  - By 2026, six states are expected to have carried out executions, up from 11 states in 2025.

[… older articles omitted]

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-08] DPI's upcoming-executions page (last updated Oct 8) lists nine remaining 2026 executions: Robertson (FL, Oct 13), Reaves (FL, Oct 20), Weisheit (IN), Taylor (AL) and Guardado (FL) on Nov 5, Rubio (TX) and Pavatt (OK) on Nov 12, Dennes (TX) on Nov 19, and Hasan (military) on Dec 3. DPI says Ohio's warrants will not be carried out, since the governor has said there will be no executions without a new method. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-07] Jamaal Howard was executed in Texas and was widely reported as the 30th US execution of 2026. It was the first since Christa Pike's failed execution. Texas has executed seven this year and plans two more (Rubio, Dennes). Reports differ on Texas's count (ABC7 says six, The Hill says seven). https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/texas-man-executed-after-christa-pike/
- [2026-10-11] Florida withdrew the warrant for William Thompson (Oct 13, 6pm). His attorneys say dementia makes him incompetent, and the state has not released the competency evaluation. James Robertson remains set for noon Oct 13. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/newsletter/dpi-weekly-updates-2026-42
- [2026-10-01] Robertson pleaded guilty, waived his appeals, and says he killed his cellmate to get a death sentence. The Florida Supreme Court briefing schedule ran through Oct 11. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-james-robertsons-execution
- [2026-10-02] Florida had already executed 16 people in 2026, per a Yahoo report. William Reaves Jr. is set for Oct 20 at 6pm ET. DeSantis has signed 19 warrants this year, matching the 2025 record, and more could be added before year-end. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/desantis-signs-death-warrant-man-190413946.html
- [2026-09-30] Tennessee's execution of Christa Pike failed after two doses of pentobarbital. Gov. Lee halted Tennessee executions for the rest of 2026, so no Tennessee executions will count in 2026. He postponed the state's only other scheduled one this year. The prison commissioner resigned. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/01/nx-s1-5986822/tennessee-governor-halts-executions
- [2026-10-10] Tennessee's September failure followed Tony Carruthers' failed execution in May. Texas executed Howard with the same drug (pentobarbital) a week after Pike without incident, though his final minutes were reported as prolonged. Howard's lawyers' appeals to the Supreme Court failed. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/us/texas-tennessee-lethal-injection-execution-hnk
- [2026-10-06] The Army set Nidal Hasan's execution by firing squad for Dec 3, 2026, at 1pm CST. The Army order is dated Oct 6, and Trump approved it Oct 2. Reports differ on the site (Fort Hood vs Fort Leavenworth). DPI says Hasan can seek habeas review in civilian federal courts, which would delay it indefinitely. It would be the first military execution since 1961, and military executions count under the question's fine print even though DPI does not include them in its total. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/nidal-hasan-may-be-executed-on-december-3-by-firing-squad-first-military-execution-in-65-years
- [2026-10-07] KWTX quoted legal experts saying continued delay in the Hasan case is "very likely". As of Oct 9–10, PBS reported Hasan had not signaled whether he will contest the sentence. Hegseth announced a livestream, which drew bipartisan criticism (e.g. Sen. Tillis). https://www.kwtx.com/2026/10/07/very-likely-we-will-see-continued-delay-legal-challenges-may-stall-hasans-execution/
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia's schedule tracker also shows nine 2026 executions remaining: 3 Florida, 2 Texas, and one each for Alabama, Indiana, Oklahoma and the military. It was compiled before Thompson's withdrawal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-08] DPI's 2026 outcomes page shows 58 execution dates scheduled by nine states and the military this year. Many have ended inactive, for example through reprieves (Pennsylvania, Ohio) and clemency (Alabama's Burton, Mar 10). Alabama's June nitrogen execution was blocked by the Supreme Court, and Alabama sought lethal injection instead. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026

BOTTOM LINE: The count stands at 30 as of Oct 7, with nine dates remaining. Thompson's Oct 13 warrant has been withdrawn, but Robertson's execution is the same day, so the Oct 13 slot still holds one. The ceiling on current dates is 39, and the Hasan execution on Dec 3 is the least certain. Further Florida warrants (the late-year pace) could raise the total above 39, and stays, reprieves or other failures could lower it.

NOT FOUND: Any execution result after Oct 7; the live DPI 2026 count, because the DPI database is a JavaScript table that did not render; the outcome of Thompson's competency review; any filed Hasan habeas petition; and any new Florida warrants beyond Reaves.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-08] DPI counted 30 executions in 2026 as of its Oct 8 update. It lists 58 execution dates set by 9 states and the US military for 2026, with 19 warrants inactive. 30 executed plus 19 inactive leaves 9 active, which matches DPI's upcoming list. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-08] DPI's remaining 2026 schedule has 9 dates:
  - Oct 13: Robertson (FL).
  - Oct 20: Reaves (FL).
  - Nov 5: Weisheit (IN), Taylor (AL), Guardado (FL).
  - Nov 12: Rubio (TX), Pavatt (OK).
  - Nov 19: Dennes (TX).
  - Dec 3: Hasan (US military, firing squad).
  
  The DPI Oct 8 page predates the Oct 12 Florida notice below. Ohio dates are non-operative under DeWine's stated policy. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-12] The Florida Supreme Court-watch (FADP) release says Thompson's Oct 13 warrant was withdrawn (stayed for a competency review on Sept 17). Robertson's execution at noon Oct 13 remains on. It would be Florida's 17th of 2026. Robertson waived his appeals. https://www.fadp.org/florida-set-to-execute-man-who-said-he-killed-to-reach-death-row-challenging-misconception-that-death-penalty-deters-crime/
- [2026-10-08] The Wikipedia 2026 list shows 30 executions: FL 16, TX 7, OK 3, AL 2, AZ 1, TN 1, all by lethal injection. September had 6, which is the monthly high. The 30th was Howard (TX) on Oct 7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-01] Tennessee Gov. Lee paused all executions for the rest of 2026 after the failed Pike execution (Sept 30), so Sutton's Dec 3 date is inactive. Tennessee has had two failed executions in 2026 (Carruthers in May, Pike). The state has completed one execution (Hines). https://tennesseelookout.com/2026/10/01/tennessee-governor-orders-third-party-review-pause-all-executions-for-the-rest-of-the-year/
- [2026-10-07] Hasan (military): Trump approved the sentence on Oct 2, and the Army set Dec 3 for the firing squad. The last US military execution was in 1961. DPI's director says Hasan could delay it with a federal habeas petition, and Army Lawyer says that could take years. It is the least certain of the 9 dates. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/07/nx-s1-5993539/firing-squad-execution-nidal-hasan-fort-hood
- [2025 base rate] 2025 finished with 47 executions, the highest in over a decade. Florida had 19, and 7 of those fell in October. October to December 2025 had 7, 3 and 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2025
- [2026 attrition] Of the dates that ran their course so far in 2026, roughly 30 of 49 were executed (about 61%). Many inactive ones were Ohio reprieves (a structural non-event), Pennsylvania reprieves and gubernatorial clemency (AL Burton), and the Tennessee failures. Among warrants in states that actually carry out executions (FL, TX, OK, AL, IN), nearly all proceeded, with exceptions such as the Thompson stay. This is my own calculation from the DPI table. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-12] Florida: DeSantis has signed 19 warrants in 2026 (matching the 2025 record), and Florida has completed 16 executions so far. Florida shows a short warrant-to-execution window (Robertson's was 12 days). New Florida warrants could be signed for dates before Dec 31, which would add executions beyond the current list. Warrants have typically been issued about 30 days or less before execution. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/2026/10/02/oct-2/
- [2026-10-07] The SMU pending list (Oct 8) marks all 2026 dates except Tennessee's as "serious" (*). Wikipedia also lists 13 pending requests for execution dates in four states, so additional late-2026 dates are possible but none are confirmed. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [Historical context] Annual US executions were 11 (2021), 18 (2022), 24 (2023), and 47 (2025). 2026's 30 through Oct 7 is on pace to land well below 2025 unless Florida adds more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2022

BOTTOM LINE: The outside view gives a floor of 30. The most likely total is 30 plus the executions that go ahead from the 8 non-Tennessee dates. Of these, FL/TX/OK/AL/IN dates usually proceed but with occasional stays, and Hasan's is the main uncertainty. Florida could add warrants, so totals above 39 are possible but would need new warrants. No bookmaker or forecaster odds were found.

NOT FOUND: Any published odds or expert forecast for the 2026 total. DPI's year-to-date tally was not confirmed after Oct 8. Outcome of Robertson's Oct 13 execution. Any new Florida or Texas warrants dated for Dec 2026. Info on whether Hasan has filed a federal habeas petition. DPI's stay and attrition rates for 2025 warrants.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-08] Hasan is the swing entry. His civilian lawyer John Galligan told ABC that a federal habeas petition is "a distinct possibility" but no decision has been made. Army rules require a date 60–150 days after presidential approval, and Dec 3 is near the earliest allowed. Army officials are still writing a new firing-squad procedure. The existing 1959 procedure has not been updated, and the Army had planned for lethal injection until Trump chose a firing squad. So Hasan's date depends on three things in order: no habeas filing or stay, the Army finishing a protocol, and the execution going ahead on Dec 3. A habeas filing is the main thing that could stop it. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734

- [2026-10-09] Hasan has litigation routes beyond habeas. Experts quoted by Snopes say the defense could argue that a livestreamed execution is cruel and unusual punishment. Any civilian-court stay would halt both the execution and the stream. The Hasan execution is therefore the date most exposed to a court. https://www.snopes.com/news/2026/10/09/nidal-hasan-execution-livestream-legal/

- [2026-10-09] Thompson's warrant was withdrawn after a Sept 15 neuropsychologist found him unable to understand his execution. The Florida Supreme Court denied his stay hours before DeSantis rescinded the warrant. A three-member panel appointed under Executive Order 26-192 examined him on Oct 1. The state hasn't said whether it will seek a new date, and Thompson's lawyers have filed a separate federal suit over his medical care. A Thompson execution in 2026 is unlikely. Florida attributed no other withdrawal to the Tennessee failures, but advocates raised the compromised-veins risk. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-cancels-execution-florida-inmate-claiming-dementia

- [2026-10-05] Florida upside driver: Guardado's Nov 5 warrant was DeSantis's second in a week. After Guardado, no Florida date after Nov 5 is on the schedule. Florida's Dec 2025 date (Geralds, Dec 9) was signed on Nov 7, 2025, about 32 days ahead. So a new warrant signed in early-to-mid November could still land in 2026. Florida's 2026 execution total could pass 20 only if all Oct–Nov dates run and more warrants follow. https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/desantis-20th-death-warrant-jesse-guardado-florida-2026-execution-record/ ; https://www.wctv.tv/2025/11/07/gov-desantis-signs-death-warrant-18th-execution-this-year/

- [2026-10-02] Robertson's warrant gave the shortest warrant window since Florida resumed executions in 2017, only 12 days. He waived all postconviction claims, and the Florida Supreme Court issued its scheduling order the same day. This makes Oct 13 the most certain remaining date. https://fladeathpenalty.substack.com/p/new-warrant-james-robertsons-execution

- [2026-09-19] Texas has a pending method challenge. Rubio and the already-executed Norman sued over expired or compounded pentobarbital. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, at Paxton's urging, blocked a Travis County judge from halting executions. That blocks the route most likely to stop Rubio on Nov 12. Dennes on Nov 19 faces the same pentobarbital questions. Texas has since executed Ramey and Howard. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/09/19/mvav-s19.html

- [2026-08-31] Indiana's Weisheit (Nov 5) was ordered by the Indiana Supreme Court. State attorneys say he has exhausted all appeals and has no active stay. Indiana would be carrying out its fourth execution since resuming. https://www.wwbl.com/2026/08/31/indiana-supreme-court-sets-jeffrey-weisheits-execution-for-november-5th/

- [2026-09-17] Alabama precedent: Jeffery Lee's June 11 date was stayed after a nitrogen-method lawsuit. The state then got a new warrant specifying lethal injection, and he was executed Sept 17. So an Alabama stay is not necessarily final within the year, but Taylor's Nov 5 date has no known similar challenge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026

- [2026-10-12] Death Penalty Action (Oct 8 snapshot) lists Weisheit, Taylor, Pavatt, Rubio and Dennes as active, and marks Roberts (AL), Ryder (OK), Speer (TX) and Sutton (TN) as postponed. Postponements happen months ahead, so none of these dates is a late surprise. https://deathpenaltyaction.org/take-action/execution-petitions/

- [2026-10-12] Wikipedia's schedule count of 36 includes 27 Ohio dates that will not run. The remaining nine are the same nine as DPI. This confirms no unlisted late-2026 date exists, other than possible new Florida warrants. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States

BOTTOM LINE: After the Oct 7 count of 30, the arithmetic is 30 plus the executions that go ahead from 8 live dates (Thompson is out), with Robertson, Reaves, and the Texas, Oklahoma, Indiana and Alabama dates the most routine. Hasan on Dec 3 is the main downside risk, and new Florida warrants signed by about early December are the main upside, so a final total in the mid-to-high 30s is plausible.

NOT FOUND: Any result of Robertson's Oct 13 execution. Any Hasan habeas filing or stay. Whether Florida will re-warrant Thompson. Any Florida warrant for a date after Nov 5. Any new Texas, Oklahoma or Alabama stay. DPI's live 2026 count after Oct 8.

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-12] I found no prediction-market or forecaster pricing for this exact question. I searched Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Metaculus and saw no 2026 US execution-count contract or question. The numbers below come from official schedules and news, not from forecasters. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39805/us-executive-in-contempt-for-not-obeying-a-court-ruling-in-these-years/ (unrelated Metaculus page; nothing on executions)
- [2026-10-08] DPI's primary outcomes-of-warrants page says 58 execution dates were set for 2026 by 9 states and the US military. 30 executions have been carried out and 19 warrants are inactive. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026
- [2026-10-08] DPI's "Remaining Executions Scheduled for 2026" lists 9 dates: FL Robertson (Oct 13), FL Reaves (Oct 20), IN Weisheit, AL Taylor and FL Guardado (all Nov 5), TX Rubio and OK Pavatt (Nov 12), TX Dennes (Nov 19), and military Hasan (Dec 3). On that list the maximum is 39. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-09] The first schedule change since DPI's update: DeSantis withdrew the death warrant for William Lee Thompson, who was due Oct 13. This was the first warrant withdrawal of his tenure. Robertson's execution remains set. That puts the ceiling at 38 unless a new warrant is added. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/9/florida-execution-called-ron-desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-first/
- [2026-10-12] Florida advocacy group FADP describes Robertson's execution as scheduled for noon on Oct 13, and as Florida's 17th of 2026 if carried out. That is consistent with Florida's 16 executions through Oct 7 per Wikipedia. https://fadp.org/florida-set-to-execute-man-who-said-he-killed-to-reach-death-row-challenging-misconception-that-death-penalty-deters-crime
- [2026-10-06] Florida has issued 20 warrants this year, the most recent for Guardado (Nov 5). DeSantis can sign more warrants with roughly 30 days' lead time. Florida carried out 19 executions in 2025, a modern record. This is the main upside risk to the DPI list. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2026-10-07] Wikipedia's list of 2026 executions shows 30 carried out as of Oct 7. By state: FL 16, TX 7, OK 3, AL 2, AZ 1, TN 1. By month: September 6, August 4, May 4. The pace is about 3 to 4 per month, with 0 so far in November and December. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-12] Tennessee is out for 2026. Gov. Lee suspended executions for the rest of the year after the failed Pike execution on Sept 30 and the failed Carruthers attempt in May. Gary Sutton's Dec 3 date is on hold. Pike and Carruthers are not counted as executed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-12] The Hasan firing-squad execution (Dec 3, Fort Hood, to be livestreamed) is the least certain entry. It would be the first US military execution since 1961. DPI lists it, and the question's fine print counts military executions. I did not check whether litigation is pending, and I found no expert forecast on whether it will go ahead. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmpwg28vrexzo
- [2026-10-08] SMU's Pending Executions list marks all of the same dates as "serious", meaning more likely to be carried out. It also notes that stays can come at the last moment. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/pending-u-s-executions/
- [2026-10-08] Ohio's warrants for 2027 to 2030 are not expected to be carried out. DeWine has said no executions will happen without a new method. These do not affect 2026. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-12] Informal track-record signal: of 58 dates set for 2026, 30 were carried out, 19 are inactive, and 9 remain. Counting the withdrawn Thompson date, the 9 remaining are all-but-one of the original list. This is a base rate of about 52% of dates executed. It is far lower for non-Florida states, and for the other states, where warrants are set months ahead. Florida warrants set about 30 days out have mostly been carried out (16 of the 18 or so signed). https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2026

BOTTOM LINE: No market or expert forecast was found. Official sources show 30 executions so far and 8 dates still scheduled after Thompson's withdrawal, which makes the practical ceiling 38 unless Florida adds warrants, which it can do on about 30 days' notice. That gives a plausible range of roughly 32 to 38, with the Hasan firing squad and the late Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama and Indiana dates as the main uncertainties.

NOT FOUND: Any Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold or Metaculus market or forecast on the 2026 US execution total; analyst or expert projections of the year-end total; whether any stay or litigation is pending against Hasan's execution; DPI's own year-end projection (its year-end report comes in December).

### FAVORITE CASE
The leading outcome is a final 2026 total in the mid-30s, probably 35 to 37. That is 30 executions to date plus most of the eight dates still active. A total of 38 or 39 needs Hasan's firing squad to go ahead, and it is the least certain date.

- [2026-10-12] Florida's dates are the strongest part of the case. Robertson (Oct 13) pleaded guilty and waived all appeals, so he is the least likely of any pending prisoner to be stayed. He took the 12-day warrant window with no litigation to run. https://www.tampafp.com/florida-inmate-chicken-head-killed-for-a-spot-on-death-row-next-week-he-gets-the-needle/
- [2026-10-09] DeSantis withdrew Thompson's warrant. The Hill ties this to the Pike failure. Fox13 and CBS12 tie it to the dementia claims and the psychiatric panel set up under Executive Order 26-192. The panel examined Thompson on Oct 1, and the results were never released. Fox13 says it is unclear whether a new date will be sought. Read as a one-off for a frail 74-year-old, not a Florida pause. Robertson's date was left standing. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-cancels-execution-florida-inmate-claiming-dementia
- [2026-10-06] Guardado's warrant (Nov 5) was signed Oct 5, after the Pike failure of Sept 30. DeSantis was still adding warrants then, and he had signed two in one week. That supports Florida continuing at pace. Fox13 notes his federal habeas claim was already rejected by the 11th Circuit in 2024. Florida uses a different drug protocol (etomidate, rocuronium, potassium acetate), not the pentobarbital that failed in Tennessee. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2026-10-06] Florida's pace gives an upside path. Fox13 counts Guardado as the state's 20th scheduled execution this year, and Florida's 2025 record was 19 executions. Florida warrants have recently run about 12 to 30 days, so a December warrant is feasible. In 2025, DeSantis signed the Geralds warrant (Dec 9) on Nov 7 and Walls (Dec 18) in mid-November. If he repeats that, the total could pass 39 only if Hasan also goes ahead. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-sets-execution-date-man-fatally-shot-man-woman-home-invasion-r-rcna244754
- [2026-10-08] DPI's upcoming-executions page, fetched in full, still lists 9 remaining 2026 dates. It is updated each business day at noon ET. Ohio's dates are flagged as non-operative, and no other state is listed for 2026. That confirms the core case: 30 executed plus up to 8 in FL, TX, OK, AL, IN and the military. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions
- [2026-10-07] Texas Nov 12 and Nov 19 (Rubio, Dennes) are likely to proceed. In September the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals blocked a Travis County judge's attempt to halt Texas executions over the pentobarbital challenge Rubio filed. Howard was executed with the same drug on Oct 7. Rubio faces the same drug challenge again, but it has already lost at the state's top criminal court. https://people.smu.edu/rhalperi/2026/09/17/sept-17/
- [2026-10-07] Indiana (Weisheit, Nov 5) was ordered by the state's high court. Oklahoma (Pavatt, Nov 12) is also listed by Wikipedia's schedule with no stay noted. Both are in states that carry out executions, so they are not Ohio-style placeholders. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_scheduled_to_be_executed_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-09] Hasan may not fight. His civilian lawyer Galligan called a habeas petition "a distinct possibility" but said no decision had been made (ABC). NPR noted that Hasan told the military he could "still be a martyr" if executed. He also offered almost no defense at trial. A non-contesting Hasan makes Dec 3 plausible. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-09] The counterweight on Hasan is that experts say a habeas petition could delay the execution for years, possibly past this administration. Possible challenges to the livestream add further risk. Hasan is the single date most likely to fail, so the realistic range is about 37 if he is stayed and 38 if he is executed. https://www.npr.org/2026/10/09/nx-s1-5996529/firing-squad-livestream-execution-fort-hood-shooter
- [2026-10-12] Mechanically, the leading outcome rests on a high completion rate among the eight active dates. Florida (Robertson, Reaves, Guardado), Texas (Rubio, Dennes), Oklahoma, Indiana and Alabama are all in jurisdictions that carry out executions. Alabama's Taylor is the odd one: its June nitrogen date was blocked by the Supreme Court, per the earlier report. Dropping 1 to 3 of the 8 gives a total of 35 to 37, and 38 only if all eight go ahead. https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions

BOTTOM LINE: Official schedules and the pace of Florida warrants put the likeliest 2026 total in the mid-to-high 30s (about 35 to 38). The main swing factors are Hasan's habeas decision and any new December Florida warrants, which could add upside.

NOT FOUND: Robertson's Oct 13 outcome, since it had not happened yet. Any filed Hasan habeas petition or stay. Any December warrant in Florida or Texas. Any published odds on the 2026 total. Any outcome for Thompson's competency review. Any litigation tracker for the Rubio, Weisheit, Taylor or Pavatt dates.

### UPSET CASE
**Case for an upset.** The leader is probably a total in the high 30s, with 38 or 37 the likely modal outcomes. I see two credible upset routes, and both are backed by evidence. The stronger one is a lower total of about 33–36 if Hasan is stayed. The other is 39 or more, if Florida adds warrants.

- [2026-10-08] Hasan's own civilian lawyer, John Galligan, called a federal habeas petition "a distinct possibility" after speaking to Hasan on Oct 7. No decision had been made yet. He also said the Army scheduled the date near the earliest its rules allow, and he objected to moving a paralyzed Hasan from Leavenworth to Fort Hood. This is the first on-record signal from Hasan's side, and it goes beyond the generic "he could file" in the colleagues' reports. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-08] The Army dropped months of lethal-injection planning and has "no modern procedure" for a firing squad. Its old rules (eight riflemen, with blanks mixed in) predate current practice and have not been adapted for a wheelchair user. This is a mechanism for slippage or litigation, and it is separate from habeas. https://abcnews.com/Politics/hegseth-hasan-execution-public/story?id=137110734
- [2026-10-07] Yale military-law lecturer Eugene Fidell said a habeas case "can last years." He added that it might outlast the current administration. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/oct/7/questions-procedure-linger-army-moves-execute-fort-hood-shooter/
- [2026-06-?? / undated, ~89 days old] A military-law blog says Hasan can file a §2241 habeas petition in the District of Kansas and seek a stay. It rates his chance of winning as low, but expects the process to take "a few more years." So a stay could come from a filed, pending case without Hasan winning on the merits. https://www.court-martial.com/blog/hasan-military-death-penalty/
- [2026-10-12] Even if Robertson (Oct 13) goes ahead, DeSantis has now withdrawn a warrant for the first time. The Thompson withdrawal gave no reason, and no competency findings were released. It shows the governor will drop a warrant on medical grounds. That is a precedent for a lower total if another elderly or ill inmate is next. William Reaves, 77, is set for Oct 20. https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2026/10/09/desantis-withdraws-death-warrant-for-74-year-old-man-who-was-set-to-be-executed-tuesday/
- [2026-10-06] Reaves is 77 and the Oct 20 date follows Robertson's by a week. Guardado's warrant (Nov 5) was signed on Oct 5, about 31 days ahead. Florida therefore has a roughly 30-day signing lead. Any warrant signed up to about Dec 1 could still land before Dec 31. That is the route to 39 or more. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2025-11-07 / 2025-11-18] Last year's precedent for late warrants: DeSantis signed warrants on Nov 7 for a Dec 9 execution (Geralds) and, in the second half of November, for Dec 18 (Walls). So Florida did add December executions in 2025 after a similar October schedule. I found no December 2026 Florida warrant yet. https://www.wctv.tv/2025/11/07/gov-desantis-signs-death-warrant-18th-execution-this-year/ and https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-sets-execution-date-man-fatally-shot-man-woman-home-invasion-r-rcna244754
- [2026-10-12] Florida's pace and the Thompson withdrawal imply the state ends the year with the Oct 13, Oct 20 and Nov 5 executions done, so about 19 on that path. DeSantis has signed 20 warrants this year, so the Fox13 "20th execution" figure for Guardado cannot be reconciled with a count of 16 done unless Thompson's withdrawn warrant is included. Florida's 17th on Oct 13 means 31 nationally, and 33 with Reaves and Guardado. https://www.fox13news.com/news/desantis-signs-20th-death-warrant-putting-florida-track-execution-record
- [2026-10-08] TDCJ's schedule (last updated Oct 8) shows only two Texas dates left, Rubio (Nov 12) and Dennes (Nov 19). Dennes is 70. Texas has no later 2026 dates listed, so Texas adds nothing to the ceiling unless a new date is set at least 91 days out. Texas law requires about that much notice, so no further Texas dates can arrive in time. https://www.tdcj.texas.gov/death_row/scheduled_executions.html
- [2026-10-08] Death Penalty Action lists Texas's Nov 12 and Nov 19 dates and the Hasan Dec 3 date as active. It also lists many "postponed" Texas cases, which shows Texas dates do get stayed by courts. https://deathpenaltyaction.org/take-action/execution-petitions/
- [2026-10-12] Tennessee's Sutton (Dec 3) is on hold and Tennessee is out. The Wikipedia 2026 list confirms Carruthers got a one-year reprieve after the May IV failure. So no upside from Tennessee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_executed_in_the_United_States_in_2026

BOTTOM LINE: The best-supported upset is a total of 36–37 (Hasan stayed, plus possibly one of the Nov 5 to Nov 19 dates stayed), because Hasan's counsel has publicly kept habeas open, the Army's procedure is improvised, and Hasan's date was set early under the Army's own rules. The opposing upset, 39 or more, needs two new Florida warrants signed by roughly Dec 1, which has precedent from 2025 but has not happened yet, and it would also need the Hasan date to hold.

NOT FOUND: Any filed Hasan habeas petition or stay motion; any Florida warrant for a date after Nov 5; the Oct 13 Robertson result; DPI's live count after Oct 8; any Indiana (Weisheit), Alabama (Taylor) or Oklahoma (Pavatt) litigation status; any forecaster or market pricing.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources show the outcome already decided as of today? If so, which option and by which source.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market for these options, treat its prices as a strong prior and name the specific evidence it lacks whenever you move away from it. A RELATED market is context only. If no market is listed, there is none — do not assume one.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "Fewer than 39": <prob>,
        "39": <prob>,
        "40": <prob>,
        "41": <prob>,
        "More than 41": <prob>
  },
  "unverified_claims": ["<a fact your forecast depends on that no source above confirms, one that would change your leading option or move it by 10+ points if false; [] if none>"]
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).