How many mass shootings will the U.S. experience i — Metaculus Scans

Plan 5.89s

Sub-questions (0)

Tool requests (2)

resolution_source {"question": "How many mass shootings will the U.S. experience in October 2026?", "source_name": "Mass Shooting Tracker 2026 database", "urls": ["https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026", "https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2025", "https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2024"]}

web_search {"queries": ["massshootingtracker.site October 2025 mass shootings count", "Mass Shooting Tracker monthly mass shootings 2025 2026 trend decline", "Gun Violence Archive mass shootings October 2025 total"]}

Research 52.06s · 2 tool(s) · 0 error(s)

resolution_source fail resolved=unclear; DATA NOT FOUND; The 2026 data file (2026-data.json, last modified 48.19s

web_search ok 20 results 21.95s

research loops 6/6 ok · 20 searches · 0 page reads

current state ok 3 searches · 0 reads · 3890 chars 19.3s

base rate ok 3 searches · 0 reads · 4334 chars 18.4s

key factors ok 4 searches · 0 reads · 4553 chars 20.8s

expert view ok 3 searches · 0 reads · 3329 chars 15.5s

high case ok 4 searches · 0 reads · 4755 chars 20.1s

low case ok 3 searches · 0 reads · 3826 chars 20.7s

report: current state

I could not read the resolution source (Mass Shooting Tracker, MST) itself. The page at massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026 serves only a "Mass Shootings in 2025" shell with no data table. It lists year links only up to 2025. A rendered copy was a cached 2025 snapshot with an empty body, and the guessed JSON URLs returned 404. So I have no MST figure for October 2026 or for October 2025. The Gun Violence Archive (GVA) figures below are the closest proxy. MST's definition is broader than GVA's, counting four or more shot including the perpetrator. MST counts are therefore usually equal to or higher than GVA's.

- [2026-10-11] The MST data page (`?year=2026`) shows no 2026 data, and its year list stops at 2025. The site says it is an all-volunteer reddit group. The cached render was dated 2025-10-12. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026
- [2026-10-05] GVA's weekly update counted 4 mass shootings in October 1–5 and 358 for 2026 so far. Monthly GVA counts for 2026: Jan 25, Feb 29, Mar 40, Apr 34, May 36, Jun 42, Jul 68, Aug 47, Sep 33, Oct 4. GVA had 328 by the same date in 2025. https://x.com/GunDeaths/status/2107196001312469168
- [2026-10-10] A news report cites GVA at 365 mass shootings in 2026, before or around the Erie event. https://www.ms.now/news/erie-pa-mass-shooting-josh-shapiro
- [2026-10-11] The GVA homepage, published 2026-10-11, shows 366 mass shootings and 20 mass murders for 2026. If 358 was the count on Oct 5, about 8 have been added in October 6–11, or about 12 for October to date. That is my inference from two sources, not a published figure. https://www.shootingtracker.com/
- [2026-10-09] GVA's incident list for October includes Baltimore (2 killed, 2 injured, Oct 9), Erie PA (9 killed, plus the shooter), Meridianville AL (4 injured, Oct 8), Douglas GA (4 killed, plus the shooter) and Vienna GA (2 killed, 35 injured, Oct 4). I could not confirm all of these on the GVA pages. The GVA search result carried a stale age label, so treat the dates as unconfirmed. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/mass-shooting
- [2026-10-09] Douglas GA: 5 dead in an apparent murder-suicide. Under MST's definition, which counts the shooter, this would be a 5-shot incident. GVA counts it as 4 victims plus the shooter. https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/10/10/mass-shooting-reported-douglas-5-dead/
- [2026-10-10] Erie PA (Oct 9): 8 victims plus the shooter, 9 dead in total, in a murder-suicide. https://nbcnews.com/news/us-news/erie-pennsylvania-mass-shooting-rcna602669
- [2026-10-07] GVA counted 343 mass shootings through Sep 24, 2026, against 319 over the same period in 2025. Those 343 caused 323 deaths and 1,449 injuries. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-safety/article/texas-leads-nation-2026-mass-shootings-analysis-22467245.php
- [2026-10-11] The 2026 total is running about 7–9% above 2025 on GVA. GVA's 2025 total was 407, down 19% from 2024. https://www.omnilert.com/gun-violence-statistics
- [2026-10-04] The Vienna GA homecoming block party shooting killed 2 and injured 35. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vienna,_Georgia,_shooting
- Next data point: GVA updates its counts daily and posts a weekly update on X, with the last one on Mon Oct 5. The MST page is updated by volunteers with no stated schedule. October closes Oct 31, and the question resolves Nov 2.

BOTTOM LINE: GVA, the proxy, shows about 12 mass shootings so far in October 2026 (inferred). Recent GVA months ran 33 to 68, with September at 33 and August at 47. MST typically counts more than GVA because it includes the shooter among those shot, and its 2026 page may not be populated or may be lagging, which adds uncertainty about what the resolver will read.

NOT FOUND: any MST 2026 data, including the October-to-date count, the October 2025 MST value and the MST trajectory. The MST 2026 page and its JSON endpoints returned no data.

report: base rate

I could not get any counts out of the Mass Shooting Tracker (MST) itself. Its 2026 page rendered as an empty shell. A cached copy, dated Oct 12, 2025, was titled "Mass Shootings in 2025" and had no rows. The 2025 page lists only JSON download links, and my guessed JSON URL returned a 404. So the October figures for 2023–2025 below are not from MST. They are Gun Violence Archive (GVA) figures and context, and MST's more expansive definition probably gives higher counts than GVA.

- [2026-10-11] MST defines a mass shooting as "a single outburst of violence in which four or more people are shot". It is crowd-sourced. Wikipedia says its definition is the most expansive and includes shooters among the people shot. That means counts should run at or above GVA's, which excludes the shooter. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/ ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2024
- [2026-10-11] The MST data page is a JavaScript shell. A cached copy showed no rows. I found no MST monthly counts for any year. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2025
- [2026-01] GVA recorded 408 mass shootings in 2025, with 395 deaths and 1,867 injuries. The Trace says Q4 2025 had fewer shooting deaths and injuries than any other Q4 since GVA's data begins in 2014. Q4 mass-shooting deaths were 113, down from 181 the year before. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q4-2025/
- [2026-09-12] The GVA ledger gives annual mass shootings of 504 for 2024 and 407 for 2025. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
- [2025-10-14] GVA had 340 mass shootings for Jan 1–Oct 14, 2025. Annual totals were cited as 503 for 2024 and 659 for 2023. If the 2025 year-end total was 407–408, then about 67 occurred from Oct 14 to Dec 31, roughly 27–30 per month. This is my arithmetic from the cited totals, not a published October figure. https://www.livenowfox.com/news/us-mass-shootings-2025-gun-violence
- [2026-10-07] GVA-based analysis by the Get The Facts Data Team counted 343 mass shootings through Sept 24, 2026, against 319 over the same period in 2025. That is about 7.5% higher, and the report says 2026 is running ahead of 2025. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-safety/article/texas-leads-nation-2026-mass-shootings-analysis-22467245.php
- [2026-10-04] GVA had at least 355 mass shootings in 2026 by Oct 4. That is 12 more than the Sept 24 count of 343, in 10 days, or about 1.2 a day. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/04/mass-shootings-georgia-baltimore
- [2026-10-11] Reports put the 2026 GVA count above 400 by Oct 11. Recent events include Vienna, GA (Oct 4, 2 killed, 25+ injured), Baltimore (Oct 3), Erie, PA (Oct 9, 8 killed plus the shooter) and Douglas, GA (Oct 9, 5 dead). Several of these fall before or on Oct 9–10, and the Erie and Douglas shootings were reported at the time as dated Oct 9. Only incidents in October count toward the resolution figure, and the question counts the whole month. The pace of roughly 1.2 a day from Sept 24 to Oct 4 implies about 35–40 for the month on GVA. https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-internacional/atirador-mata-8-pessoas-incluindo-criancas-na-pensilvania/
- [2025-10-11] October 2025 included a cluster of high-casualty events around homecoming weekends. Leland, MS (Oct 11: 7 killed, 12 shot) and Saint Helena Island, SC (Oct 12: 3 killed, 14 injured) are examples. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States
- [2026-10-09] Everytown found October had the most campus shootings over its ten-year study period, more than twice the monthly average. About half of the October campus shootings fell in homecoming weeks. This points to an upward seasonal effect on October. https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-on-college-and-university-campuses

BOTTOM LINE: GVA's Q4 2025 figures are low and the 2026 pace is about 7.5% above 2025. October is seasonally elevated, with homecoming weekends adding to it. MST counts are likely at or above GVA's. I found no MST monthly history, and the Oct 11–Nov 2 change cannot be copied from MST.

NOT FOUND: MST's own monthly or October counts for 2023–2025. The MST 2026 running total. The MST JSON data. GVA's October-only totals for 2023–2025. Any record of prior forecasts or consensus accuracy for this question.

report: key factors

- [2026-10-11] The live GVA "Mass Shootings in 2026" table (fetched) lists 13 incidents dated Oct 3–10. These are Oct 3: Commerce TX, Trenton NJ, Baltimore. Oct 4: Vienna GA, Dallas, Sacramento, Albany. Oct 5: Portsmouth VA. Oct 8: Meridianville AL. Oct 9: Erie, Baltimore (Ellicott Dr), Douglas GA. Oct 10: Detroit (1 killed, 3 injured). It lists no GVA incident for Oct 1–2. This revises the earlier "about 12" estimate to at least 13 for Oct 1–10. It also shows GVA backfills: the Oct 5 weekly post said 4, but the table now shows 8 for Oct 3–5. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting
- [2026-10-11] The MST FAQ (fetched) counts "4 or more people shot" and says it includes the shooter's death. Murder-suicides such as Douglas GA (4 victims + shooter) and Erie (8 victims + shooter) therefore count on MST. Under GVA's rules, Douglas has exactly 4 victims and is borderline. MST counts incidents GVA does not, such as 3 victims plus a self-shot shooter. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/faq/
- [2026-10-11] The MST FAQ describes the data as unfunded and crowd-sourced. It says errors can be introduced and entries are removed if found faulty. It calls the data a minimum count, with some incidents likely missed or not written up by news. The count is therefore volunteer-dependent and lags GVA-style automation. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/faq/
- [2026-10-11] The MST data page's indexed copy (title "Mass Shootings in 2025") lists JSON files only for 2013–2025, and it is about 272 days old. The guessed URL /data/2025.json returns 404. No 2026 file or table is visible. The resolver's October 2026 value is therefore not verifiable from outside. If MST posts no 2026 data, the question has no clean source to resolve from. https://massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026
- [2026-10-11] Seasonal mechanism: Everytown's report (updated about 2 days ago) finds October has the most campus shootings of any month, more than twice the monthly average. It says about half occur in homecoming weeks. Prior Octobers show this: Tennessee State (Oct 12, 2024) and Albany State (Oct 19, 2024) shootings, and Leland MS and Saint Helena Island SC in 2025. Remaining 2026 homecoming weekends (Oct 17–18, 24–25) are a main driver of any upward skew. https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-on-college-and-university-campuses
- [2026-10-11] Structural driver: GVA's 2025 total of 408 (Trace, pulled Jan 6) was well below 2023's 659. Q4 2025 had the lowest shooting deaths and injuries of any Q4 since 2014. A low-violence baseline therefore caps the level, though 2026 is running a few percent above it. GVA can add or update incidents weeks or months after they happen. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q4-2025/
- [2026-10-11] Wikipedia's 2026 list had 332 shootings as of Aug 31 (338 killed, 1,396 wounded). Its inclusion rules differ from MST's. This confirms that a wide four-or-more definition yields counts in the same range as GVA's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-11] The GVA homepage (published Oct 11) shows 366 mass shootings and 20 mass murders for 2026. Reuters on Oct 10 said "more than 400" for the year, which conflicts with GVA's own 366. Treat the "400+" in the media as inaccurate. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/
- [2026-10-10] Causal path to the outcome: (1) the MST volunteers must log October incidents. (2) The resolver must read the MST page on or after Oct 31, and the resolution date is Nov 2. (3) The remaining 21 days must add incidents. GVA's pace in the first 10 days was at least 1.3 a day. Applied to 31 days with a weekend and homecoming uplift, that gives roughly 35–45 on GVA. MST, which counts the shooter and has looser inclusion, could differ by a few counts in either direction. The ranking inference is mine. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-10-10/nine-dead-in-erie-pennsylvania-mass-shooting

BOTTOM LINE: The count depends on weekend and homecoming incident clustering, GVA-style data entry, and MST's crowd-sourced, shooter-inclusive definition. October is on a GVA pace of at least 13 in 10 days, and the 2026 total is running above 2025. The main risk is that MST's 2026 page shows nothing readable, so the outcome rests on volunteers and on what the resolver sees.

NOT FOUND: Any MST 2026 or October monthly count. Any MST JSON file. GVA's October totals for 2023–2025. Any prediction market on this question. Any other fetched source reporting MST figures.

report: expert view

- [2026-10-11] The Gun Violence Archive (GVA) homepage, published 2026-10-11, shows 366 mass shootings for 2026, and its mass-shooting table lists Erie, PA and Douglas, GA on Oct 9. MS NOW the day before cited 365. GVA counts four or more shot, excluding the shooter. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/
- [2026-10-06] GVA's weekly tweet gave 4 mass shootings in Oct 1–5 and a 2026 total of 358. Monthly counts were Jan 25, Feb 29, Mar 40, Apr 34, May 36, Jun 42, Jul 68, Aug 47, Sep 33. The same date in 2025 had 328. https://x.com/GunDeaths/status/2107196001312469168
- [2026-10-11] Through Oct 9–10, GVA's table lists about 10 October incidents, so GVA is near 8 to 10 for Oct 1–10 (the 358-to-366 jump suggests 8 since Oct 5). Oct 2025 totals were not retrieved. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting
- [2026-10-07] A Hearst data team analysis put the national count at 343 through Sept 24, up from 319 a year earlier. GVA's 2025 full-year total was just over 400. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-safety/article/texas-leads-nation-2026-mass-shootings-analysis-22467245.php
- [2026-04] The Trace reported GVA recorded 94 mass shootings in Q1 2026, against 69 in Q1 2025. It said it is too early to call this a trend and that 2021–23 quarters all exceeded 100. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/04/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q1-2026/
- [2026-02] Everytown's EveryShot, which counts more broadly than GVA, recorded 31 mass shootings in Jan 2026, against 29 in Jan 2025. https://everytownresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2026/02/EveryShot-January-2026-Report.docx.pdf
- [2026-07] Counts differ by source. For H1 2026, GVA had 186 and Everytown had 197, while AP and Mother Jones, which use stricter victim-count definitions, had far fewer. Mass Shooting Tracker (MST) uses four or more shot, the same basic definition as GVA, but it is volunteer-run and has historically logged somewhat different or higher counts. https://www.omnilert.com/gun-violence-statistics
- [2026-10-11] The MST 2026 page could not be read. It returned only an empty shell or a cached 2025 snapshot, so MST's own 2026 monthly count could not be confirmed. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026
- [2026-10-07] Prediction-market coverage is limited to general stories about Kalshi and Polymarket. No market on the October 2026 mass-shooting count was found. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-10-07/longshots-losing-98-of-time-dominate-kalshi-polymarket-trading
- [2026-10-04] The Guardian reported the Vienna, GA homecoming shooting (2 killed, 25 or more injured) and a Baltimore shooting. These and the Erie shooting are in the GVA October tally. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/04/mass-shootings-georgia-baltimore

BOTTOM LINE: No formal expert or market forecast of the MST October count exists. The best proxy is GVA, which has run about 8 to 10 incidents in Oct 1–10. September 2026 had 33 and Aug 47, and GVA's 2026 total is running about 7–11% above 2025. A GVA-based October extrapolation would be roughly 30 to 40, and MST's own count may differ from GVA's.

NOT FOUND: MST's 2026 monthly or October figure, any prediction-market or analyst forecast of the October count, GVA's October 2025 total, and any record of how accurate past forecasts of this quantity have been.

report: high case

- [2026-10-11] Wikipedia's 2026 list (updated through Oct 10) shows at least 8 October incidents with 4 or more shot. They are Detroit (Oct 10, 1 killed, 3 injured), Baltimore (Oct 9), Douglas GA (Oct 9, 5 shot including the shooter), Erie PA (Oct 9, 10 dead including the shooter and an unborn baby), Meridianville AL (Oct 7), Portsmouth VA (Oct 5), Albany NY (Oct 4) and Dallas (Oct 4, 6 injured). Vienna GA (Oct 4, 2 killed, 35 injured) is also an October incident; it is not in the portion of the list I could read, but the Wikipedia article on it confirms it. The list is Wikipedia's own and uses a stricter inclusion rule than MST. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-11] The same Wikipedia list gave 365 shootings through Sep 30, 2026, against 332 through Aug 31. That is 33 in September, matching the GVA monthly figure. It also confirms that MST's "four or more shot including the perpetrator" definition is the broadest in use. Murder-suicides with exactly 3 victims plus the shooter, and shootouts where a shooter is hit, count on MST but not on GVA. That is the mechanism for MST running above GVA. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2026
- [2026-10-11] The MST 2025 data page, fetched directly, is an empty shell. It has year links to 2025 and no 2026 link and no data rows. The all-volunteer reddit group's update cadence is unknown. This is a high-scenario risk in only one direction: if the resolver reads a lagging or empty page, the number could come out low. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2025
- [2025-10-12] October 2025 was a high-profile cluster on the 2025 list: Montgomery AL (Oct 4, 2 killed, 12 injured), Leland MS (Oct 10–11, 7 killed, 12 shot) and Saint Helena Island SC (Oct 12, 3 killed, 14 injured). Oct 2026 has already had a similar homecoming-weekend event in Vienna GA (35 injured), so the same seasonal pattern is present. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_the_2020s
- [2025-11-03] The Halloween weekend adds late-month volume. In 2023, GVA counted 13 mass shootings from Friday to Sunday of Halloween weekend. Halloween 2026 falls on a Saturday, so the full weekend (Oct 30–Nov 1) overlaps the final days of October; only Oct 30–31 count for October. Chicago's 2025 Halloween weekend had just one mass shooting, showing wide variation. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4283289-halloween-weekend-mass-shootings/ ; https://cwbchicago.com/2025/11/two-killed-21-wounded-in-halloween-weekend-shootings-across-chicago.html
- [2026-07-06] The 2026 pace has produced high summer months. GVA had at least 224 by the July 4 weekend, and July's 68 is well above 2025's July. This shows 2026 can produce months of 45 to 68, though that reflects summer seasonality that October lacks. https://www.sandyhookpromise.org/news/press-releases/statement-on-fourth-of-july-weekend-shootings-in-several-u-s-cities/
- [2026-10-09] Everytown's campus study found October was the peak month for campus shootings, 67 of 389 against a monthly average of 32. Homecoming weeks account for about half of October's shootings. This adds an upside driver for events in the Oct 12–31 window. https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-on-college-and-university-campuses
- [2026-01-06] GVA's year-end 2025 total was 408, and the late-2025 pace was about 27 to 30 a month by my arithmetic. If 2026 runs 7 to 9% above 2025, that implies a base of about 30 to 33 for a normal October on GVA. The MST premium would come on top of that. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q4-2025/
- [2026-10-11] High-path arithmetic from the Wikipedia list and GVA: the list shows about 8 to 9 incidents in October 1–10, a pace of about 0.85 a day. Holding that to Oct 31 gives roughly 27, below the GVA September-style total. Reaching 45 or more needs about 1.6 a day for Oct 11–31 (a July-level rate). A figure of that size would need the MST definition to add about 20% or more, plus a busy Halloween Friday and Saturday and homecoming weekends. Those are my own estimates from the sources above. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2026

BOTTOM LINE: The path to a high October figure (above about 40) needs three things together: MST's broader counting, which includes shooters among the four shot; a busy Oct 16–31 stretch of homecoming weekends and Halloween Friday and Saturday; and MST being fully updated by volunteers. The early-October pace, roughly 8 to 10 incidents in 10 days, is not on its own a July-level pace.

NOT FOUND: Any MST 2026 data or MST October totals for any year, and a GVA October 2025 total.

report: low case

- [2026-10-11] The MST data page (`?year=2025`) is a JavaScript shell. When fetched, it showed only a list of JSON download links and no table. Its year bar stops at 2025, and the guessed `/data/2025.json` returned HTTP 404. An MST-specific low path is therefore a non-populated or lagging 2026 page, not an actual low count. I found no MST figure for any month. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2025

- [2026-10-11] GVA's Oct 1 post gave 354 mass shootings for 2026 through Sept 30. Its homepage on Oct 11 shows 366. That is 12 in Oct 1–11, about 1.1 a day, helped by Erie, Douglas and Vienna. The pace needed to land at the low end is about 0.7 a day for the remaining 20 days, which gives roughly 26. That is below Sept 2026's 33 and Aug's 47. https://x.com/GunDeaths?lang=en ; https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

- [2026-10-11] The 2025 comparison points to a similar early-October pace. GVA had 328 by Oct 5, 2025 and 340 by Oct 14, 2025, so 12 occurred in nine days. Starting from the 2025 year-end total of 408, that leaves about 68 for Oct 15–Dec 31, roughly 27 a month. Q4 2025 had the lowest shooting deaths and injuries of any Q4 since 2014. A low October would mirror that late-month fade. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q4-2025/ ; https://www.livenowfox.com/news/us-mass-shootings-2025-gun-violence

- [2026-10-11] Q4 2025 mass-shooting deaths were 113, against 181 in Q4 2024. This is a year-on-year decline in lethality. It is a mild argument that the high-casualty tail will be smaller this October. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q4-2025/

- [2026-10-11] The GVA homepage banner still says mass shootings are down to pre-COVID levels. Its monthly 2026 counts range from 25 (Jan) to 68 (Jul), and the cold-season months Jan, Feb and Apr were 34 or below. A low outcome would be a cooling month (Sept 33 was the lowest since Feb) that keeps falling. Colder weather and fewer outdoor gatherings late in the month would drive it. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

- [2026-10-09] The seasonal upside is concentrated in homecoming weekends, most of which fall in the first half of October. The Vienna GA and Erie events have already been counted. If the remaining weekends are quiet, the second half of the month would be slower. Everytown measured campus shootings only, not all mass shootings, so it is weak evidence about the whole-month count. https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-on-college-and-university-campuses

- [2026-10-11] A definitional nuance that could lower a resolver's count: GVA's mass-murder tally is 20 for 2026. Murder-suicides such as Douglas GA (4 victims plus the shooter) count only under MST's shooter-inclusive rule, so MST can only add to GVA, not subtract. I found no source showing MST ever running below GVA. A low outcome would therefore need GVA itself to be low, and the MST shell to be the only drag. https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2025

- [2026-10-11] Late GVA data entry can change counts, since GVA can add shootings weeks or months later. A resolver reading on Nov 2 would see a slightly higher October than on Oct 31. This works against a low outcome. https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q4-2025/

BOTTOM LINE: The evidence-backed low path is a GVA-style October of about 26–30, produced by the early-month burst fading toward the 2025 late-Q4 pace of about 27 a month. A MST page that stays unpopulated is a separate resolution risk. If MST is read as GVA plus shooter-inclusive cases, I found no evidence it would come out lower than GVA.

NOT FOUND: any MST monthly or October count for any year, a working MST JSON endpoint, GVA's October-only totals for 2023–2025, and any prediction-market line on this question.

asknews 4 hot + 10 archive · 14533 chars · 3.9s

AskNews bundle (as the forecaster read it)

11 AskNews articles (newest first; 4 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-11] 8 Killed, Including Children, in Pennsylvania Mass Shooting
Poder360 — https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-internacional/atirador-mata-8-pessoas-incluindo-criancas-na-pensilvania/
- On Friday, October 9, 2026, a 45-year-old man killed 8 people and then took his own life in Erie, Pennsylvania, USA.
- According to the Erie Police Chief, Rick Lorah, 8 of the 9 victims were members of the same family, and the 9th was a family friend.
- Among the victims were a pregnant woman and two children.
- The suspect, who has not been identified, died from an apparent self-inflicted wound before police arrived.
- Police Chief Lorah stated that the shooter exited the residence and shot two women outside; images captured the women appearing distressed and seeking help.
- The suspect was found dead on the second floor of the house.
- Erie Mayor Daria Devlin praised the responding officers for their 'courage and professionalism' in facing 'unimaginable circumstances.' Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (Democratic Party) offered support to the city following the 'tragic mass shooting.' Shapiro is a proponent of gun control measures, having previously pushed for background checks and restrictions on 'ghost guns' in 2024.
- According to the Gun Violence Archive, the United States has recorded over 400 mass shootings in 2026 so far, defined as incidents where 4 or more people are shot, excluding the shooter.

[2026-10-11] US Gunman Kills 7 Relatives and Family Friend in Pennsylvania Massacre
news.rthk.hk — https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1873476-20261011.htm
- On October 10, 2026, a 45-year-old man shot and killed seven relatives and a family friend at a residence in Erie, Pennsylvania, before apparently taking his own life, according to Erie Police Chief Rick Lorah.
- The victims included two young children, a five-year-old boy and a one-year-old girl, as well as a woman who was eight months pregnant.
- Other victims were men and women ranging in age from 19 to 51.
- Police responded to reports of shots fired on Friday evening and discovered two women dead in the street; video evidence showed the pair arriving distressed and attempting to contact neighbors before the gunman exited, shot them, and returned inside.
- The man barricaded himself in the home and was later found with an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound.
- The eighth victim was a family friend.
- Erie Mayor Daria Devlin stated, 'Many people across our community are hurting today,' acknowledging the grief of neighbors, families, and first responders.
- The incident is noted as another mass shooting in the United States, where gun ownership vastly outnumbers the population and efforts to increase firearm restrictions face significant political and legal hurdles, according to AFP.

[2026-10-10] 14 Killed in Two Mass Shootings in Pennsylvania and Georgia
Информационный портал Day.Az — https://news.day.az/world/1865984.html
- On October 9, 2026, two separate mass shootings occurred in the US states of Pennsylvania and Georgia, resulting in a combined total of 14 deaths, according to preliminary data reported by the informational portal Day.Az.
- The first incident took place in Erie, Pennsylvania, around 17:00 local time, where a man opened fire near a residence on Perry Street before barricading himself inside.
- Police and SWAT teams responded; upon entering the home, they discovered the bodies of several victims, including two children, and the gunman, who is believed to have committed suicide.
- Local media reported nine fatalities in total, including the shooter.
- Erie Police Chief Rick Laura described the event as one of the most tragic scenes his department has faced, confirming no further threat to the public.
- A second shooting occurred late that evening in Douglas, Georgia, around 23:00.
- Police responded to a report of gunfire at a residential home and found five people dead from gunshot wounds.
- According to the local outlet DouglasNow, a man shot four people before taking his own life.
- Authorities in both states are currently investigating the incidents, and the identities and motives of the perpetrators remain under verification.

[2026-10-07] Texas Leads U.S. States in Mass Shootings with 37 Incidents in 2026
The Dallas Morning News — https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-safety/article/texas-leads-nation-2026-mass-shootings-analysis-22467245.php
- According to a recent analysis by the Get The Facts Data Team, a collaborative of Hearst television stations, Texas recorded 37 mass shootings through September 24, 2026, the highest total of any U.S. state.
- This analysis, which utilized data from the Gun Violence Data Hub and the Gun Violence Archive, defines a mass shooting as an incident where at least four people are injured or killed, excluding the shooter.
- Notable incidents in Texas include a pair of connected shootings in Carrollton's Koreatown in May that resulted in two deaths and three injuries, and a May shooting at a West Dallas house party that left three people dead and one wounded.
- Nationwide, 343 mass shootings were recorded through September 24, 2026, compared to 319 during the same period in 2025.
- These incidents have resulted in 323 deaths and 1,449 injuries.
- California, Illinois, and Louisiana tied for the second-highest total with 20 mass shootings each.
- While the 2026 total remains below levels seen in some recent years, the country is running ahead of last year's pace, with more than 400 mass shootings recorded nationwide in all of 2025.

[2026-10-04] Two Mass Shootings in US Kill Three, Including a 12-Year-Old
The Guardian — https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/04/mass-shootings-georgia-baltimore
- On Sunday, October 04, 2026, two people were killed and at least 25 others injured when a shooting erupted at a homecoming block party in Vienna, Georgia, early that morning, according to local Sheriff Craig Peavy.
- The incident occurred at a gathering of over 1,000 people, with shots fired at approximately 50 people in two locations about a block apart just after 1 am.
- The identities of the victims, suspects, and the motive remain unknown.
- In a separate incident in Baltimore on Saturday, a 12-year-old girl was killed and three others wounded after gunfire broke out over a parking spot at Leon Day Park during a youth football event.
- Baltimore Police Commissioner Richard Worley stated that two suspects were being sought after finding two different types of gun cartridges, describing the event as an argument between two men who 'opened fire on each other.' The 12-year-old girl was a bystander hit by 'multiple rounds down range.' Mayor Brandon Scott called the death of the child 'one of the most disgusting things I've ever seen.' According to the Gun Violence Archive, there have been at least 355 mass shootings reported in the US so far in 2026, defined as incidents with at least four victims killed or wounded.

[2026-10-01] U.S. Mass Shootings Reach 343 in 2026 Despite Record-Low Homicides
KCCI — https://www.kcci.com/article/us-mass-shootings-map-2026/73874634
- As of September 24, 2026, there have been 343 mass shootings in the U.S. (where four or more victims were injured or killed, excluding the shooter), a 7.5% increase from the 319 incidents recorded at the same time in 2025, according to a Get The Facts Data Team analysis of Gun Violence Archive data.
- While the nation recorded record-low homicide numbers in 2026, mass shootings remain on track to be the sixth worst year since 2014.
- More than 320 people have been killed and over 1,440 injured across 40 states and Washington, D.C.
- Texas leads with 37 incidents, followed by California, Illinois, and Louisiana with 20 each.
- The two deadliest incidents this year were domestic violence cases: one in Shreveport, Louisiana, in April where eight children and two adults were affected, and another in Billings, Montana, in August where a man killed eight relatives, including four children.
- Additionally, October 1, 2026, marks the nine-year anniversary of the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history, which occurred on October 1, 2017, in Las Vegas, killing 60 and injuring over 430.

[2026-08-06] US Gun Violence Archive: 650 Children and Adolescents Killed in Shootings in 2026
Univision — https://www.univision.com/noticias/estados-unidos/eeuu-registra-mas-de-600-ninos-y-adolescentes-muertos-en-tiroteos-en-2026-solo-25-policias-han-fallecido
- According to the Gun Violence Archive, at least 650 children and adolescents have died in shootings in the United States in 2026, compared to 25 police officers killed in line-of-duty incidents.
- As of July 2026, the data also reports 286 mass shootings and 14,478 firearm-related injuries nationwide.
- Additional statistics include 502 defensive gun use incidents, 760 accidental shootings, and 334 homicide-suicides.
- These figures are lower than the corresponding totals for August 2025, which recorded 808 youth deaths and 49 police fatalities.
- The Gun Violence Archive notes that these 2026 figures remain subject to increase as local authorities confirm additional cases.

[2026-07-28] Rise in U.S. Mass Shootings and Intersection with Suicide Crisis
RealClearScience — https://www.realclearscience.com/2026/07/28/the_seasonal_patterns_of_suicide_and_mass_shootings_1196908.html
- Over the past decade, the United States has experienced a significant rise in mass shootings.
- According to the Gun Violence Archive, there were 3,106 mass shootings recorded nationally from 2020 to 2024, representing a 72% increase compared to the 1,811 incidents reported between 2015 and 2019.
- These events intersect with a concurrent public health crisis: deaths by suicide, which account for the majority of gun-related deaths in the United States.

[2026-07-06] 17 Mass Shootings Recorded Across US During July 4 Weekend 2026
Yahoo — https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/florida-mass-shooting-among-17-132149146.html
- According to data from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), 17 mass shootings occurred across the United States during the July 4th weekend in 2026, resulting in 11 deaths and 86 injuries.
- A specific incident in Pensacola, Florida, on July 5 injured six people and killed a 19-year-old man; Pensacola Police Chief Eric Winstrom stated the victim was pronounced dead at the scene, while the other six victims, aged 16-26, are expected to survive.
- The GVA defines a mass shooting as an event injuring or killing four or more people, excluding the shooter.
- As of July 6, 2026, Florida has recorded 13 mass shootings, a significant increase from the eight recorded by this time in 2025, though the total for 2026 (13) remains lower than the 16 recorded in 2025.
- Nationwide, the GVA reported 224 mass shootings as of July 6, 2026, compared to 217 during the same period last year.
- The GVA collects data from over 5,000 law enforcement, government, and media sources, though these figures are disputed by pro-firearm organizations and may differ from FBI or CDC data.
- As of July 6, neither the victims nor the shooter in the Pensacola incident have been identified.

[2026-06-07] U.S. Mass Shootings Surge in 2026 Amid Intensified Gun Control Debate
Globalist.it — https://www.globalist.it/world/2026/06/07/usa-impennano-le-stragi-armate-e-il-2026-rischia-di-segnare-un-nuovo-record/
- In 2026, the United States has experienced a surge in mass shootings, with over 120 incidents involving at least four victims recorded in the first four months alone, according to data from the Gun Violence Archive.
- This figure exceeds the pace set in 2025, raising concerns that the year could become one of the bloodiest in recent US history.
- Notable incidents include a mass shooting on April 19 in Shreveport, Louisiana, where Shaar Elkins killed eight children (seven of them his own) before dying in a police shootout; a June 2 attack in Muscatine, Iowa, in which Rayan Willis McFarland is suspected of killing six relatives; and a March 1 shooting in Austin, Texas, that left three dead and 15 injured.
- On May 18, two white supremacist teenagers radicalized online killed three people at the Islamic Center of San Diego, citing the 2019 Christchurch mosque attacks as inspiration.
- Additionally, on March 12, Amman Ghazali drove a pickup truck into Temple Israel in West Bloomfield, Michigan, an act the FBI classified as a Hezbollah-inspired terrorist attack targeting the Jewish community.
- While many attacks stemmed from domestic conflicts, others were ideologically motivated.
- The surge in violence has reignited political debate: Democrats and advocacy groups are calling for stricter gun control, while Republicans emphasize mental health reforms.

[2026-05-31] Opinion: Mass shootings in South Africa reveal systemic devaluation of black lives (opinion)
Sunday World — https://sundayworld.co.za/
- In an opinion piece titled 'Black lives don't matter in this country', published in the Sunday World on May 31, 2026, the author argues that the recurring mass shootings in South Africa are treated with nonchalance because the victims are predominantly African.
- The article details several specific incidents: in February 2026, a bus near Meyerton was attacked leaving six dead (four women, two men) and 18 hospitalized; in December 2025, a tavern in Saulsville saw 12 killed and nine more butchered in a shebeen in Bekkersdal; and in September and October 2024, shootings in Lusikisiki and Qumbu killed 24 people, including a three-year-old in Mokokotlong.
- The author cites statistics stating South Africa lost 26,232 people to murder in 2024, averaging 70 deaths per day, with a murder rate of 45 per 100,000.
- Although police recorded a drop in daily killings from 63 (April-September 2025) to 70, the author notes the rate remains one of the highest globally.
- The article highlights that 80 mass shooting incidents were recorded in 2024 and seven occurred in the first quarter of 2025 alone.
- Despite police shutting down 12,000 shebeens and arresting 18,000 people between April and September 2025, the author contends that the killing continues, asserting that the normalization of these events proves that 'black lives don't matter'.

Evidence Synthesis ?s · 0 items

Forecast 54.53s · claude-opus-5-5

Rationale

The MST 2026 table shows 13 October entries through Oct 10, so October is partly logged and not yet fixed. About three weeks remain until the Nov 2 resolution. Status quo is 13, a floor. Continuing the early-October and September MST pace of about 1.27–1.3 per day adds roughly 24–28, for about 37–41. Base rates agree: MST runs about 15–19% above GVA (MST September 38 vs GVA 33), and a GVA October of 32–37 implies about 37–43 on MST. The low case is a quiet late October plus volunteer logging lag on the last days, totalling around 29–31. The high case is homecoming-weekend and Halloween Friday/Saturday clusters at an August-like pace, reaching about 48–52. Median about 39, with moderately wide, overdispersed tails.

Evidence brief shown to forecaster

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — DATA NOT FOUND: every route tried failed to show the value this question resolves on, so its current state is UNKNOWN. Do not read the missing data as evidence either way; reason from the research instead:
Tried: fetch_url massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026: JavaScript page with no data (title still says 2025)
render_url same page: cached snapshot, no content
fetch_url massshootingtracker.site/data/2026.json: 404
fetch_url S3 2026-data.json: HTTP 200 but rejected (unsupported content type, octet-stream)
render_url S3 2026-data.json: returned only the end of the file (January 2026 entries); the start, with October, was cut off
allorigins proxy: HTTP 522
r.jina.ai proxy: everything cut off
codetabs proxy: ran out of research budget before a result came back
Current state: The 2026 data file (2026-data.json, last modified Sun, 11 Oct 2026 16:02:10 GMT) exists and lists incidents, newest first. I only saw the end of the file, which holds the January 2026 entries (e.g., Jan 1 Houston, Dallas, Jackson). The October 2026 entries at the start of the file were cut off in every response, so I don't have a count of October incidents so far.
Last updated: 2026-10-11 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
Note: The site's page links to the JSON file at mass-shooting-tracker-data.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2026-data.json, and the file was updated Oct 11, 2026, so October is only partly through. Incidents are listed newest first, so the October entries are at the top of the file. Counting the entries dated 2026-10-xx gives the running total. The tracker includes incidents with 4 or more people shot, killed or wounded (the Jan 1 Jackson entry, 0 killed and 4 wounded, is counted). The question can't resolve until October ends and the data is filled in.
Fetched: fetch: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: fetch: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2025 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: fetch: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2024 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: render_url: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: fetch_url: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/2026.json (HTTP 404)
Fetched: fetch_url: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/ (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
I found no page from massshootingtracker.site with an October 2025 count. Almost all the usable figures come from Gun Violence Archive (GVA) data reported by other outlets.

## 1. massshootingtracker.site, October 2025 count

- **No direct count found.** None of the results contained monthly or October 2025 totals from the site. The only references were Wikipedia citations of its "About" and FAQ pages, both retrieved April 25, 2026.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_Arizona

- **Its definition.**
Mass Shooting Tracker counts incidents with four or more persons shot, at one location, at roughly the same time.
Unlike GVA, it does not exclude the perpetrator.
GVA excludes the perpetrator(s) from the count.
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2024)
- **Major October 2025 incidents (Wikipedia):**
-
October 4, Montgomery, Alabama: 2 killed, 12 injured.

-
October 11, Leland, Mississippi: 7 killed, 12 injured by gunfire.

-
October 12, Saint Helena Island, South Carolina: 3 killed, 14 injured.

- Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_the_2020s
- **Wikipedia's 2025 list.**
It totals 425 shootings, 420 killed and 1,900 wounded.
This is Wikipedia's own compilation, not Mass Shooting Tracker's. (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2025)
- **Other October 2025 context.** Everytown reported that
on October 11, 2025, gunfire erupted on four university campuses during homecoming week, and eight people were shot.
(Source: https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-on-college-and-university-campuses)

## 2. Mass Shooting Tracker monthly trend, 2025–2026

I found no month-by-month Mass Shooting Tracker data. The trend below is from GVA and related datasets, which use a similar four-or-more-shot threshold.

- **2025 declined sharply.**
There were 408 mass shootings in 2025, down from 504 in 2024 and 41 percent below the 2021 record.
(Source: https://www.thetrace.org/2025/12/data-shooting-stats-gun-violence-america/, Dec 2025)
- **Q4 2025 deaths fell.**
The death toll for Q4 mass shootings was 113, down from 181 the year before.
(Source: https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q5-2025/, Jan 2026)
- **Mass killings hit a 20-year low in 2025.**
The Stockton shooting was the 17th mass killing of 2025.

The tally was down about 24 percent from 2024, which was itself about 20 percent below 2023.

Asked whether 2026 would see a further decline, criminologist James Alan Fox said he wouldn't bet on it.
(Source: https://aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/us-mass-killings-drop-to-20-year-low-in-2025-database, Dec 2, 2025)
- **2026 looks flat or slightly up, not declining.**
-
Through two quarters of 2026, GVA recorded 206 mass shootings, up from 193 a year earlier. That is still well below the post-pandemic years, when the total exceeded 300 mu

Raw forecast prompt

You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.

## Question
How many mass shootings will the U.S. experience in October 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Pew Research: [What the data says about gun deaths in the U.S.](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/28/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-us/)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "d48b0075e5bf0eb1", "sheet_id": "7"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of mass shootings reported at the Mass Shooting Tracker [Mass Shootings in 2026](https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026) database for October 2026.

## Range
The question's displayed range is [29.5, 90.5] (units: mass shootings).
The LOWER bound is OPEN: outcomes below 29.5 are possible and resolve as "below range".
The UPPER bound is OPEN: outcomes above 90.5 are possible and resolve as "above range".
Where a bound is open, your percentiles MAY lie outside the displayed range — the range is where the question author expects most of the mass, not a constraint on the answer. Do not compress your distribution to fit inside it.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE — DATA NOT FOUND: every route tried failed to show the value this question resolves on, so its current state is UNKNOWN. Do not read the missing data as evidence either way; reason from the research instead:
Tried: fetch_url massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026: JavaScript page with no data (title still says 2025)
render_url same page: cached snapshot, no content
fetch_url massshootingtracker.site/data/2026.json: 404
fetch_url S3 2026-data.json: HTTP 200 but rejected (unsupported content type, octet-stream)
render_url S3 2026-data.json: returned only the end of the file (January 2026 entries); the start, with October, was cut off
allorigins proxy: HTTP 522
r.jina.ai proxy: everything cut off
codetabs proxy: ran out of research budget before a result came back
Current state: The 2026 data file (2026-data.json, last modified Sun, 11 Oct 2026 16:02:10 GMT) exists and lists incidents, newest first. I only saw the end of the file, which holds the January 2026 entries (e.g., Jan 1 Houston, Dallas, Jackson). The October 2026 entries at the start of the file were cut off in every response, so I don't have a count of October incidents so far.
Last updated: 2026-10-11 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
Note: The site's page links to the JSON file at mass-shooting-tracker-data.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2026-data.json, and the file was updated Oct 11, 2026, so October is only partly through. Incidents are listed newest first, so the October entries are at the top of the file. Counting the entries dated 2026-10-xx gives the running total. The tracker includes incidents with 4 or more people shot, killed or wounded (the Jan 1 Jackson entry, 0 killed and 4 wounded, is counted). The question can't resolve until October ends and the data is filled in.
Fetched: fetch: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: fetch: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2025 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: fetch: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2024 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: render_url: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/?year=2026 (HTTP 200)
Fetched: fetch_url: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/2026.json (HTTP 404)
Fetched: fetch_url: https://www.massshootingtracker.site/data/ (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (20 results):
I found no page from massshootingtracker.site with an October 2025 count. Almost all the usable figures come from Gun Violence Archive (GVA) data reported by other outlets.

## 1. massshootingtracker.site, October 2025 count

- **No direct count found.** None of the results contained monthly or October 2025 totals from the site. The only references were Wikipedia citations of its "About" and FAQ pages, both retrieved April 25, 2026.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_Arizona

- **Its definition.**
Mass Shooting Tracker counts incidents with four or more persons shot, at one location, at roughly the same time.
Unlike GVA, it does not exclude the perpetrator.
GVA excludes the perpetrator(s) from the count.
(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2024)
- **Major October 2025 incidents (Wikipedia):**
-
October 4, Montgomery, Alabama: 2 killed, 12 injured.

-
October 11, Leland, Mississippi: 7 killed, 12 injured by gunfire.

-
October 12, Saint Helena Island, South Carolina: 3 killed, 14 injured.

- Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_the_2020s
- **Wikipedia's 2025 list.**
It totals 425 shootings, 420 killed and 1,900 wounded.
This is Wikipedia's own compilation, not Mass Shooting Tracker's. (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2025)
- **Other October 2025 context.** Everytown reported that
on October 11, 2025, gunfire erupted on four university campuses during homecoming week, and eight people were shot.
(Source: https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-on-college-and-university-campuses)

## 2. Mass Shooting Tracker monthly trend, 2025–2026

I found no month-by-month Mass Shooting Tracker data. The trend below is from GVA and related datasets, which use a similar four-or-more-shot threshold.

- **2025 declined sharply.**
There were 408 mass shootings in 2025, down from 504 in 2024 and 41 percent below the 2021 record.
(Source: https://www.thetrace.org/2025/12/data-shooting-stats-gun-violence-america/, Dec 2025)
- **Q4 2025 deaths fell.**
The death toll for Q4 mass shootings was 113, down from 181 the year before.
(Source: https://www.thetrace.org/2026/01/shooting-gun-violence-data-america-q5-2025/, Jan 2026)
- **Mass killings hit a 20-year low in 2025.**
The Stockton shooting was the 17th mass killing of 2025.

The tally was down about 24 percent from 2024, which was itself about 20 percent below 2023.

Asked whether 2026 would see a further decline, criminologist James Alan Fox said he wouldn't bet on it.
(Source: https://aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/us-mass-killings-drop-to-20-year-low-in-2025-database, Dec 2, 2025)
- **2026 looks flat or slightly up, not declining.**
-
Through two quarters of 2026, GVA recorded 206 mass shootings, up from 193 a year earlier. That is still well below the post-pandemic years, when the total exceeded 300 mu

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-11; forecasting closes 2026-10-12; resolves 2026-11-02. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
11 AskNews articles (newest first; 4 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.