Where will the great white shark Percy be on November 1, 2026?

- [2026-10-10/11] OCEARCH's official tracker page for Percy shows his **latest real GPS ping was Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM**, and his **latest (imprecise) "Z-Ping" was Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM** — meaning no confirmed location update for roughly two months as of the question's open date. 
DATE TAGGED: Jul 28, 2025, LOCATION TAGGED: Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, LATEST PING: Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, LATEST Z-PING: Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM, totaling 379 days and 5,350 mi traveled.
 (ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy)
- [2026-10-10] The public OCEARCH global tracker list page likewise still shows Percy's most recent entry as the Aug 16, 2026 Z-ping, with no newer activity logged on the main tracker as of this fetch. 
"Percy – White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) Z-Ping: Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM ### Percy 9 ft. 9 in. 432 lbs."
 (ocearch.org/tracker/)
- [2026-08-01] Percy's last clearly reported media location was off **Long Island, New York** — 
"On Tuesday, exactly a year after he was tagged, Percy pinged just off the coast of Long Island, about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York."
 He had just come up from New Jersey. 
"In less than a day, Percy traveled from off the coast of Sea Isle City, New Jersey, up to Long Island."
 Reporters noted he was 
"making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters."
 (foxweather.com)
- [2026-05-11] Earlier in 2026, Percy had wintered in the Gulf, pinging off Florida's Gulf Coast near Pensacola; a separate archival (non-SPOT) biologging tag was recovered from him there, 
"On April 26, after traveling through the western North Atlantic, he was detected off the coast of Pensacola Beach, where researchers recovered his tag, collecting 270 days' worth of data."
 His live-tracking SPOT tag remained active afterward (it continued pinging in July–August). (theadvocate.com/nola.com)
- [2026-05-13] Confirms the Gulf detour: 
"Percy, a 432-pound great white shark, pinged about 30 miles from Pensacola Beach's white-sanded shores for the second time on May 11."
 (aol.com)
- [2025-11-23] One year ago, OCEARCH reported Percy was already migrating south along the Mid-Atlantic by late November: 
"Percy, a male white shark, checked in off Atlantic City, making his own steady move down the Mid-Atlantic."
 This is a useful seasonal analog for where he might be around the Nov 1 resolution date this year if he resumes a similar southbound pattern. (x.com/OCEARCH)
- [2026-10-10] No recent OCEARCH blog post, Instagram update, or news article in the last 30 days mentions a new Percy ping; all current coverage found is about the unrelated "Percy Jackson" TV franchise, not the shark.
- [2026-10-02] Other OCEARCH-tagged Atlantic sharks (e.g., Breton, Ocracoke, Contender) have pinged as recently as early-to-mid October 2026, confirming the tracker and tagging program are actively operating — Percy's silence appears specific to his tag/behavior, not a system-wide outage. 
"LATEST PING: Sep 29, 2026, 1:29:56 PM LATEST Z-PING: Oct 2, 2026, 3:29:55 PM"
 for Breton. (ocearch.org/tracker/detail/breton)
- [2026-08-07] Context on seasonal shark behavior in New England at the time Percy went quiet: other OCEARCH/AWSC-tracked sharks (Marty, Quint) were actively patrolling Cape Cod/Outer Cape waters in August 2026, supporting the idea Percy may have been in New England feeding grounds (common white shark behavior pattern) when his tag last reported. (boston25news.com, wwlp.com)

BOTTOM LINE: As of the question's opening (Oct 11, 2026), Percy's OCEARCH tracker has not recorded a confirmed location ping since Aug 11, 2026 (Z-ping Aug 16), roughly two months of silence, with his last known position off Long Island, NY heading north; last year's seasonal analog (Atlantic City, NJ by Nov 23) suggests that if his tag reactivates before Nov 1, 2026, he is most likely to be found somewhere along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic to New England coast migrating south, but a continued silent/stale tag would leave the question resolving on his last known ping rather than fresh data.

NOT FOUND: The exact geographic coordinates/nearest landmass of the Aug 11, 2026 ping (only "Long Island, NY" confirmed as of late July 2026); any OCEARCH statement explaining the ~2-month data gap (tag malfunction, shark diving/offshore behavior, or battery issue); any news coverage of Percy between mid-August and October 11, 2026.

- [2026-10-11] Primary OCEARCH tracker shows Percy's last confirmed live ping was Aug 11, 2026 and his last Z-ping (imprecise signal) was Aug 16, 2026, meaning as of the question's close date he had not reported a new location in roughly 8 weeks. 
DATE TAGGED: Jul 28, 2025, 5:34:00 PM LOCATION TAGGED: Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, LATEST PING: Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, LATEST Z-PING: Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM.
 https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy
- [2026-08-02] Percy's own base rate: a year earlier (July 2025 tagging) he had already traveled from Nova Scotia down through the Gulf of Mexico and back up the East Coast within 12 months, logging 
4,660 miles
 of travel, showing he is a fast, wide-ranging migrator rather than a coastal homebody. https://dnyuz.com/2026/08/02/great-white-shark-percy-pings-14-miles-from-long-island-coast/
- [2025-11-23] One year prior (the closest seasonal analog to this Nov 1 resolution date), Percy himself pinged off Atlantic City, New Jersey, while other OCEARCH sharks (Nori, Goodall) were already further south near Myrtle Beach — i.e., Percy's historical "due west" landmass in the comparable late-autumn window was New Jersey. 
Three white sharks checked in today on the OCEARCH Global Shark Tracker: Nori, a juvenile female, and Goodall, an adult female, both pinged near Myrtle Beach as they continue their seasonal migration south along the U.S. East Coast. Percy, a male white shark, checked in off Atlantic City, making his own steady move down the Mid-Atlantic.
 https://x.com/OCEARCH/status/1992718754313105723
- [2026-05-13] Percy's winter base case: after his fall 2025 Mid-Atlantic transit he continued south and spent the winter in the Gulf of Mexico, pinging off Pensacola Beach in May 2026, matching the general Atlantic white shark overwintering pattern. 
Percy, a 432-pound great white shark, pinged about 30 miles from Pensacola Beach's white-sanded shores for the second time on May 11.
 https://www.aol.com/news/pensacola-beach-had-great-white-151710950.html
- [2026-05-11] A regional OCEARCH scientist framed this as typical: 
"What we've seen is the latest one, Percy, is one of several of those sharks that have gone into the Gulf of Mexico." "This time of year, between December and May, seems to be a really important area for the North Atlantic migration of white sharks."
 https://www.wkrg.com/northwest-florida/escambia-county/great-white-shark-tracked-near-coast-of-pensacola-beach/
- [2025-12-XX] Comparable "favourite" shark Contender (OCEARCH's most-followed Atlantic male) shows the standard fall-migration timeline against which Percy can be benchmarked: 
Contender was tracked "making moves" up the Atlantic Coast over the summer before reaching waters near Newfoundland, Canada, in late September. In late October, Contender started to move south. His tracker pinged multiple times as he traveled around Nova Scotia. On Nov. 12, it showed that Contender had reached New Jersey waters. As of Tuesday night, the 1,650-pound shark was off the coast of Atlantic City.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/massive-great-white-shark-pings-144307707.html
- [2025-12-XX] A second comparable shark, Ernst, was already much farther south by the same date, illustrating wide individual variance: 
Ernst, a female white shark, was making "big moves" and had reached the Florida Keys after having been last seen near the Florida-Georgia border. OCEARCH tagged Ernst...during an expedition to Nova Scotia in October.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/massive-great-white-shark-pings-144307707.html
- [2025-10-30] A third comparable analog, "Ripple" (tagged Sept 30 off Nova Scotia), moved unusually fast, reaching Jacksonville by Oct 25 and Jekyll Island, Georgia by Oct 30 — a reminder that some individuals are already far south of the Mid-Atlantic well before Nov 1. 
The 11-foot male white shark, nicknamed "Ripple," was tagged off Nova Scotia Sept. 30, then raced south to Florida, covering 1,700 miles in just 25 days. Ripple pinged off Jacksonville's coast at 11:11 a.m. on Oct. 25 and surfaced six more times until Oct. 27. As of Oct. 30, Ripple was near Jekyll Island, Georgia.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/newly-tagged-great-white-shark-135454149.html
- [general] OCEARCH's own framing of the aggregate pattern across dozens of tagged Atlantic white sharks: 
Great whites in the Atlantic tend to spend the summer in cooler, prey-dense northern waters, then migrate south to warmer temperatures, OCEARCH said on Instagram.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/massive-great-white-shark-pings-144307707.html
- [general] A synthesis of OCEARCH's East Coast data describes the seasonal "corridor": 
OCEARCH data from the US East Coast revealed that great whites follow a temperature corridor — staying within the 12–18°C band year-round. In summer they move north toward New England; in winter they converge off Florida and the Carolinas.
 https://www.sharkdatalab.com/en/blog/great-white-migration-patterns
- [2026-10-11] As of question close, Percy's position is stale relative to several other OCEARCH sharks that have pinged far more recently (e.g., Ormond Oct 10, Ocracoke/Morada Oct 2), underscoring that base-rate migration timing is a better guide than his own tracker, which may or may not refresh before Nov 1. https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/

BOTTOM LINE: Historically, Percy and comparable OCEARCH-tagged Atlantic white sharks begin their southbound fall migration in October and are typically somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic (New Jersey to the Carolinas) around early-to-mid November — exactly where Percy himself was on this date last year (Atlantic City, NJ, per the Nov 23, 2025 ping) — with a non-trivial minority of individuals already reaching Georgia/Florida by Nov 1; this base rate favors a Mid-Atlantic state (New Jersey/Delaware/Maryland/Virginia) as the modal answer, with Florida/Carolinas as secondary possibilities and Nova Scotia/New England as unlikely given the seasonal southward push.

NOT FOUND: No ping data for Percy between Aug 16, 2026 and the Oct 11, 2026 question-open date (an unusually long gap versus other actively-pinging OCEARCH sharks); no official OCEARCH forecast, odds, or expert prediction specifically naming where Percy will be on Nov 1, 2026; no record of this exact "due west landmass" format being used in a prior resolved forecasting question to establish a direct historical base rate for this specific contest type.

- [2026-10-11] OCEARCH's primary tracker confirms Percy's tag is still stuck at the same two readings as of this fetch: latest full GPS ping Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM and latest Z-ping Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM — no new data in the ~95 days since (ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy; ocearch.org/tracker/).

- [2026-10-06/09] By contrast, the tracker's own homepage shows multiple other OCEARCH sharks pinging in the days right before question-open — 
Contender – White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias), Oct 6 2026, 11:38 PM
 and 
Mira ... Z-Ping: Oct 9 2026, 10:00 PM
 — confirming the Argos satellite pipeline and OCEARCH's reporting system are fully operational; the silence is specific to Percy's tag/behavior (ocearch.org/tracker/).

- [mechanism] The SPOT tag only reports when the shark's dorsal fin clears the surface long enough to dry the antenna; per OCEARCH's own explainer, 
a SPOT Tag allows OCEARCH to follow sharks in near real time, transmitting a "ping" when the shark's fin remains above the water's surface for a brief period as the animal swims
. A full-accuracy fix historically required the tag to 
breach the surface for a minimum of 90 seconds with the transmitter pinging three times in a row
 — so offshore/deep-swimming behavior alone, not a dead battery, can cause a multi-week-to-multi-month data gap (ocearch.org/blog/on-the-lift; newsweek.com/great-white-shark-satellites-virginia-1497725).

- [mechanism/battery] Independent sourcing confirms OCEARCH SPOT tags typically run 2–5 years on battery life (
SPOT satellite tags typically transmit for 2 to 5 years before the battery dies or biofouling stops the signal
), and Percy's tag is only ~15 months old (tagged July 28, 2025), making outright battery failure an unlikely explanation for the gap versus simple low-surfacing behavior (welovesharks.org/shark-tagging-understanding-the-risks-involved).

- [precedent] OCEARCH's own history shows multi-month silences in white sharks are not unusual and can be followed by sudden long-distance reappearances far from the last known point: tracked shark Katherine 
has not appeared on their system since May 2019; it was thought her tracker ... had run out of batteries
 before pinging again a year later off Virginia, and a similarly named shark "Danny" 
after months of silence, is back in a "hotspot" for white shark activity ... pinged in St. George's Bay off the coast of Nova Scotia
 this past July — a reminder that Percy's eventual reappearance point is not constrained to extrapolating in a straight line from Long Island.

- [analog] The closest within-cohort analog for an abrupt, lengthy silence is Contender, who per Fox8's own report (cited in colleague's Expert View) went silent for roughly two months in spring 2026 before resurfacing far north in the Gulf of Maine rather than where last seen — underscoring that if Percy's tag reactivates before Nov 1, there's a real chance the position will not match a simple southbound extrapolation from his Long Island/NJ positions in late July–August.

- [control] No human actor "controls" Percy's location — resolution hinges entirely on (a) whether Percy's SPOT tag surfaces long enough to register a full ping before Nov 1, and (b) his autonomous migratory behavior. OCEARCH does not appear to have a scheduled fall 2026 expedition or recapture event for Percy specifically; searches found no OCEARCH fall 2026 Nova Scotia/Northeast expedition press release newer than archived 2021-2022 editions, suggesting no planned re-tagging intervention that could force a fresh reading.

- [fallback] Per the question's fine print, if no new ping occurs by Nov 1, the resolution falls back to "the most recent ping ... as of November 1, 2026" — meaning the Aug 11/16, 2026 position (last clearly reported near Long Island, NY, per Aug 1 Fox Weather coverage already in hand) would stand as the resolving location by default if the current silence continues through the deadline.

BOTTOM LINE: The deciding factors are (1) whether Percy's SPOT tag resurfaces with a valid ping before Nov 1 — entirely outside human control and currently unresolved after ~2 months of silence despite a fully functional tracker network — and (2) if it does ping, where his autonomous fall migration has taken him, with OCEARCH's own precedents (Katherine, Danny, Contender) showing long-silent sharks can reappear well off a simple southward extrapolation; if it does not ping, the stale Aug ping near Long Island/New Jersey becomes the binding answer by the fine print's fallback rule.

NOT FOUND: Any confirmation of a new Percy ping between Aug 16 and Oct 11, 2026; any OCEARCH statement diagnosing the cause of Percy's specific data gap; any announced OCEARCH fall 2026 expedition that might re-tag or re-locate Percy before Nov 1.

- [2026-10-11] No dedicated Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, or Metaculus market for "Percy the shark" location was found in searches; this appears to be a bespoke bot-tournament question rather than a tracked public betting market. No numeric odds exist to report. (General platform background only, via https://www.bleap.finance/en-us/blog/best-prediction-market-platforms)
- [2026-10-11] The primary "expert" source is OCEARCH itself: Percy's official tracker page shows his 
first ping Jul 28, 2025, latest ping Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, latest Z-ping Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM, tagged 427 days ago, having traveled 379 days and 5,350 miles
 — https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy
- [2026-10-11] OCEARCH's live tracker homepage, checked for an updated position in October, still lists Percy's last Z-ping as 
Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM
, meaning no ping has been publicly logged for roughly two months as of question close — https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/
- [2026-05-13] OCEARCH field analyst Chris Powers (cited by WKRG) framed Percy's behavior within a known seasonal pattern, noting 
"Most of their tagging starts in Nova Scotia... What we've seen is the latest one, Percy, is one of several of those sharks that have gone into the Gulf of Mexico... This time of year, between December and May, seems to be a really important area for the North Atlantic migration of white sharks"
 — https://www.wkrg.com/northwest-florida/escambia-county/great-white-shark-tracked-near-coast-of-pensacola-beach/
- [2026-05-13] A Baton Rouge Advocate report cited OCEARCH researchers' expectation of a seasonal reversal: 
"Percy has likely reached the end of his migratory journey and will begin to make his way back to Nova Scotia, where he was originally tagged in July 2025."
 This is the clearest "expert projection" found, dated mid-May 2026 — https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/great-white-shark-florida-coast/article_4c07d630-ebbf-5cb3-a135-cb4dda22cf03.html
- [2026-08-02] Fox Weather's science desk, drawing on OCEARCH data, reported Percy's northbound summer push and offered an informal forecast: 
"Tagged just over a year ago on July 28, 2025, by OCEARCH in collaboration with the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station off the coast of Nova Scotia, Percy has made the trek from Canada all the way down into the Gulf and back up the East Coast."
 and that he was 
"making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters"
 — https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/great-white-shark-percy-long-island-new-york-ocearch
- [2026-08-20] A comparable OCEARCH-tracked shark, Contender, illustrates how unreliable short-term "expert" location forecasts can be: Fox8 reported 
"the massive shark's track went silent for about two months... On April 23, OCEARCH tracking showed Contendor was off the North Carolina Coast. He did not surface again until June 29 in The Gulf of Maine."
 This shows OCEARCH's own trackers are frequently surprised by long silent gaps and large jumps, undermining confident near-term predictions for Percy — https://fox8.com/news/tracking-massive-shark-that-had-gone-silent-pings/
- [2025-06-19 archive context, pattern precedent] Historical OCEARCH commentary on the "Mary Lee" tracking gap shows experts' default explanation for long silences is tag battery failure rather than any specific location forecast: 
"Chris Fischer of Ocearch tells Jacksonville.com that it's more likely the batteries in her transmitter, designed to last about five years, have finally given out."
 Analysts applying this base rate to Percy (tag active since July 2025) would note his tag is well within normal operating life, making a battery-death explanation for the Aug–Oct 2026 silence less likely than a normal low-surfacing period — https://www.foxnews.com/science/great-white-shark-tracked-for-years-has-fallen-off-the-radar
- [2026-10-11] Wikipedia's "Contender (shark)" page, used by journalists as a secondary tracking log, confirms the broader expert/analyst consensus that OCEARCH-tagged North Atlantic white sharks follow a seasonal loop—summering in Canada, pinging the Mid-Atlantic in fall, wintering in the Gulf/Florida—providing the main qualitative "forecast" framework analysts apply to Percy in lieu of hard data: 
"In February 2026, it was noted that he was lingering in the Cape Fear area of North Carolina for unknown reasons."
 — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contender_(shark)

BOTTOM LINE: No betting markets or formal forecasters cover this question; the only "expert" signal is OCEARCH's own biologists/press officers, who (as of May–August 2026) expected Percy to be migrating back north/toward Nova Scotia in summer, consistent with the general pattern of tagged Atlantic white sharks moving south along the East Coast in fall — but comparable sharks (e.g., Contender) have gone silent for 1–2+ months before resurfacing far from where expected, so OCEARCH-linked commentary should be treated as directional/seasonal rather than a precise location forecast for November 1, 2026.

NOT FOUND: No Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, or Metaculus market specifically tracking Percy's location or this OCEARCH-landmass question; no OCEARCH or journalist statement addressing Percy's position after the Aug 16, 2026 Z-ping; no official explanation (battery failure vs. offshore behavior) for the two-month data gap as of October 2026.

- [2026-08-02] Percy's last fully-reported media ping placed him "about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York" off Long Island's south shore, having arrived there in "less than a day" from Sea Isle City, New Jersey — confirming his most recent *narrated* position sits squarely on the NY/NJ Mid-Atlantic coastline, not farther north or south. (https://dnyuz.com/2026/08/02/great-white-shark-percy-pings-14-miles-from-long-island-coast/)
- [2026-10-11] OCEARCH's own tracker, re-fetched today, still timestamps Percy's precise "LATEST PING" at Aug 11, 2026 (either 1:12 AM or 8:30 AM listed on different page loads) and his imprecise "Z-Ping" at Aug 16, 2026 — an unchanged ~56–61-day-old data point as of question open, meaning any Nov 1 resolution is more likely to rest on this stale NY-area fix than on fresh data. (https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy)
- [2026-10-11] By contrast, the tracker's own "recent pings" rail shows peer sharks Ormond, Breton, Crystal, Contender (Oct 6), Ocracoke and Morada (Oct 2) all reporting within the last two weeks, isolating Percy's silence as tag-specific rather than a platform outage — reinforcing that whatever position is "due west" will likely be whichever one he last confirmed. (https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/)
- [2025-11-23] One year ago to the week, OCEARCH tweeted that "Percy, a male white shark, checked in off Atlantic City, making his own steady move down the Mid-Atlantic," placing him in New Jersey waters in the exact late-Nov analog window. (https://x.com/OCEARCH/status/1992718754313105723)
- [2025-11-25] Barely 24 hours after that Atlantic City check-in, a Virginia TV station reported Percy had already reached "off the coast along the Eastern Shore" in Accomack County, Virginia — a jump of roughly 150 miles in about a day, which is the concrete "mechanism" number behind why Mid-Atlantic states (NJ through VA) dominate the plausible range rather than any single state. (https://www.wavy.com/news/ocearch-tracking-2-great-white-sharks-off-the-virginia-coast/)
- [2026-01-17/2026-02-12] The comparable Atlantic male Contender, tagged in Jan 2025, was still lingering in the Cape Fear, North Carolina area in February 2026 "for unknown reasons," per Wikipedia's shark-tracking summary — illustrating that individual whites can stall well south of the population's modal "New England summer" pattern, a precedent that cuts both ways for Percy's eventual re-ping location. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contender_(shark))
- [2026-general] A third-party synthesis of OCEARCH East Coast data states great whites "follow a temperature corridor — staying within the 12–18°C band year-round," moving north in summer and converging "off Florida and the Carolinas" in winter — the aggregate seasonal logic that underlies why Mid-Atlantic-to-Carolinas, not New England or Canada, is the favoured corridor for a Nov 1 reading. (https://www.sharkdatalab.com/en/blog/great-white-migration-patterns)
- [2026-05-11] Percy's winter 2025–26 base case already shows he is capable of reaching the Gulf of Mexico by May, per the Pensacola Beach pings, meaning if his tag reactivates with a southbound signal before Nov 1 he has precedent for moving unusually far south unusually fast — a tail risk to the Mid-Atlantic "favourite" rather than a reason to doubt it outright. (https://www.aol.com/news/pensacola-beach-had-great-white-151710950.html)
- [general] OCEARCH's own technical explainer confirms the SPOT tag "transmits only when the dorsal fin clears the water surface," so an extended gap reflects diving/offshore behavior rather than guaranteed tag failure, supporting the expectation that Percy is still alive and swimming somewhere along his normal corridor, simply not surfacing enough to ping. (https://welovesharks.org/shark-tracking-app-ocearch/)

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest evidence-backed favourite is a Mid-Atlantic U.S. state (New York/New Jersey down through Virginia) — anchored both by Percy's last confirmed Long Island/NY-NJ-border fix (Jul 28–Aug 11) and by his own near-identical Nov 23–24, 2025 track (Atlantic City, NJ → Accomack County, VA) — making that corridor the modal resolution whether the Nov 1, 2026 reading comes from a fresh ping or defaults to his last known position.

NOT FOUND: Any Percy-specific ping, sighting, or OCEARCH statement dated after Aug 16, 2026; exact latitude/longitude of the Aug 11 ping (only descriptive "near Long Island" location available); any official OCEARCH comment addressing why Percy's tag has been quiet for roughly two months while peer tags remain active.

**Case for the upset: Percy resolves to Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia) rather than the expected Mid-Atlantic/Southeast landmass.**

- [2026-10-11] Percy's tagging site itself, Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, is explicitly framed by the field station as a "summer residency" site, and 
Percy was tagged and released in Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, by the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station Team, in collaboration with the OCEARCH Science and Fishing Teams
, meaning a return pulse to that same region is the single most "programmed" behavior in his known history, not an exotic outcome.

- [2026-10-04/06] The clearest live mechanism for an upset is Contender, whose track went dark for roughly two months after an April 23 Outer Banks ping and then resurfaced far north rather than south — 
on Saturday, Oct. 4, Ocearch announced via Instagram that it tracked the apex predator known as Contender to a northern area off the Atlantic Ocean, just beyond the shores of Maine, calling it "a rare ping from the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region where we don't often see signals from Ocearch-tagged sharks."
 His tracker's latest listed ping is 
Oct 6, 2026, 11:38:54 PM, after being tagged off the FL/GA coast
 — proof that an Atlantic white shark silent for ~2 months (exactly Percy's current gap) can reappear in Canadian waters just weeks before a Nov 1 resolution date.

- [2026-08-24] A Canadian Shark Conservancy field-notes piece synthesizing Atlantic Canada telemetry studies argues these sharks exhibit strong site fidelity, not simple south-for-winter migration: 
"They don't live in Canada. They return to Canada,"
 citing a shark (NS2018-03) that 
returned to within less than two kilometres of where researchers had tagged him the year before
 across three consecutive seasons — a documented behavioral pattern that could apply to Percy given his own tagging site is the same field station's primary study area.

- [2026-07-23 historical, cited in CBC archive] This is not a one-off: Hilton, another OCEARCH-tagged shark, 
tagged by the research group Ocearch in March in South Carolina, was back in Nova Scotia waters off Lunenburg
 the following summer, with researchers calling it "a eureka moment" — reinforcing that Nova Scotia functions as a recurring magnet site, not just a one-time tagging location, for this same shark population Percy belongs to.

- [~July 2026, 86 days ago] The Tancook Islands Marine Field Station — Percy's tagging team — confirms ongoing active fieldwork in the same waters: 
last year, in their first year of operations, they tagged 16 white sharks off the coast of Nova Scotia, and the 2026 tagging expedition launches this weekend
, meaning researcher presence and shark concentration in Nova Scotia is elevated again in the 2026 season, increasing both the odds Percy lingers there and the odds any tag malfunction gets caught/re-detected locally.

- [2026-10-10] Confirming no contradictory signal: the public OCEARCH tracker homepage still lists Percy's most recent position only as the 
Z-Ping: Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM... 9 ft. 9 in. 432 lbs
, meaning there is no fresh data pointing him south (e.g., no Mid-Atlantic or Florida ping) to rule out a Canada-ward reappearance before Nov 1.

- [2025-08-02, Fox Weather] Even the most recent confirmed real movement, from Aug 2026, had him explicitly bound north rather than south: he was 
making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters
 — a northbound trajectory that, if continued/resumed after the tag silence, plausibly carries him into New England/Atlantic Canada waters rather than reversing hard south by Nov 1.

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest upset case is not a Mid-Atlantic or Florida surprise but a return toward Nova Scotia/Atlantic Canada — his own tagging ground and a documented site-fidelity hotspot for this exact OCEARCH population — made newly plausible by Contender's confirmed early-October 2026 reappearance in the Gulf of St. Lawrence after an identical ~2-month silent gap.

NOT FOUND: No direct ping or sighting of Percy himself in Canadian waters in 2026; no OCEARCH statement linking Percy specifically to the 2026 Tancook expedition's recaptures; no confirmation of whether Percy's tag is still transmitting at all (vs. failed) as of October 2026.

9 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 9 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-10] Percy Jackson and the Olympians Season Three Announced for November 20 Premiere
The Futon Critic — http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news/2026/10/10/percy-jackson-and-the-olympians-returns-to-new-york-comic-con-with-walker-scobell-on-the-main-stage-to-talk-season-three-390111/20261010disney01/
  - At New York Comic-Con on October 10, 2026, series star Walker Scobell appeared on the Main Stage to discuss the upcoming third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' with moderator Damian Holbrook.
  - Scobell announced that Season Three will premiere with a two-episode debut on November 20, 2026, followed by two new episodes releasing weekly on Disney+ and Hulu.
  - This season marks the first adaptation of Rick Riordan's third book, 'The Titan's Curse,' which follows Percy Jackson, Annabeth Chase, and Grover Underwood as they embark on a quest to rescue Annabeth from Kronos's forces, free a goddess in chains, and prevent the fall of Olympus.
  - The series, created by Rick Riordan and Jonathan E.
  - Steinberg, features an executive producing team including Dan Shotz, Craig Silverstein, and Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, with the cast including Walker Scobell, Leah Sava' Jeffries, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Tamara Smart, and Levi Chrisopulos.

[2026-10-10] Walker Scobell to Discuss Percy Jackson Season 3 at New York Comic Con
TVLine — https://www.tvline.com/2282586/percy-jackson-new-york-comic-con-panel-2026-walker-scobell/
  - Actor Walker Scobell is attending a panel at New York Comic Con on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 6 pm in Hall 1D to discuss the upcoming third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' on Disney+.
  - According to the official logline, Season 3, based on Rick Riordan's book 'The Titan's Curse' and scheduled to premiere on Friday, November 20, 2026, will feature the disappearance of Annabeth and the 'Great Prophecy' from the Oracle of Delphi, which dictates the fate of Olympus.
  - While Scobell is the only cast member appearing at the event, the full cast includes Leah Sava Jeffries, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Dior Goodjohn, Daniel Diemer, and Tamara Smart, as reported by TVLine.

[2026-10-10] Disney Announces New Episode Format for Percy Jackson Season 3
CBR — https://www.cbr.com/percy-jackson-and-the-olympians-season-3-episode-format/
  - Disney announced a change to the release format for the third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' ahead of its November 20, 2026 premiere on Disney+ and Hulu.
  - According to a post shared on X by Disney, the season will consist of eight episodes spread across four weeks, with two episodes released weekly starting November 20 and concluding on December 11.
  - This marks a departure from the previous format, where the first two seasons debuted with two episodes at once before switching to a single weekly release.
  - The season, which will be the first on-screen adaptation of Rick Riordan's 'The Titan's Curse,' was previewed at New York Comic-Con by series star Walker Scobell and moderator Damian Holbrook.
  - The season's logline, as reported by CBR, states: 'The stakes are higher than ever before as Percy is faced with the sudden disappearance of Annabeth and the impending Great Prophecy provided by the Oracle of Delphi, dictating the fate of Olympus.' The cast includes Walker Scobell, Leah Sava Jeffries, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Tamara Smart, and Levi Chrisopulos.
  - Executive producers include Rick Riordan, Jonathan E.
  - Steinberg, and Jet Wilkinson (who serves as EP on the final two episodes).

[2026-10-09] 12th International Literary Parks Days to Honor Authors and Landscapes
Interris.it — https://www.interris.it/cultura/giornate-parchi-letterari-visite-nei-luoghi-che-hanno-ispirato-gli-scrittori/
  - The International Literary Parks Days are returning for their 12th edition from October 17 to November 2, 2026, featuring events, meetings, and readings across Italy and abroad.
  - Organized with the patronage of the Italian National Commission for UNESCO, the initiative invites visitors to experience the landscapes that inspired authors, including the Alps studied by Nino Chiovini, the Sardinian streets of Grazia Deledda, the Pescina of Ignazio Silone, and the settings of 'Christ Stopped at Eboli' in Aliano.
  - Specific events include a meeting on the Alpine landscape in Verbania, a visit to the Percy B.
  - Shelley Literary Park in Lerici, and a centenary celebration of Hemingway's 'A Farewell to Arms' in Riomaggiore with his grandson, John Hemingway.
  - Other highlights include a literary marathon in Due Carrare, a tribute to Michelangelo in Bibbiena, a presentation on Ovid in Sulmona, and a commemoration of Pier Paolo Pasolini in Ostia on November 2, marking 51 years since his death.
  - Additional events cover locations dedicated to Michele Parrella, Isabella Morra, Policarpo Petrocchi, and Mary Oliver in Florida.

[2026-10-09] Percy Jackson and the Olympians Season 3 Release Date and Cast Revealed
Terra — https://www.terra.com.br/diversao/com-o-seu-cavalo-alado-percy-jackson-ganha-os-ceus-em-novo-poster-da-3-temporada,fb3715fb9acca00859f54e66f244df109zjofpzu.html
  - The third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' is scheduled to premiere on Disney+ on November 20, 2026.
  - In the upcoming season, Percy Jackson (played by Walker Scobell) and his friends will race against time to rescue the missing goddess Artemis and stop an ancient monster awakened by the strengthening Titan Cronos.
  - A new poster released by Disney+ depicts Percy riding his pegasus, Blackjack.
  - The season will feature the return of the main trio—Walker Scobell, Leah Jeffries, and Aryan Simhadri—and introduce new cast members including Tamara Smart as Thalia Grace, Kate McKinnon as Aphrodite, Dafne Keen as Artemis, and the di Angelo siblings Nico and Bianca.
  - The series, based on Rick Riordan's books, will also see the return of the main god ensemble, including Lin-Manuel Miranda as Hermes and Toby Stephens as Poseidon.

[2026-10-09] Andy Weir and Benjamin Percy Reveal Details of Upcoming Audible Original 'Exoplanet'
IGN Southeast Asia — https://sea.ign.com/interview/250063/first-look-andy-weir-teases-new-sci-fi-audio-project-exoplanet
  - IGN Southeast Asia reports that the Audible Original sci-fi audio thriller 'Exoplanet' is set to release on November 5, 2026, featuring a star-studded cast including Anthony Mackie, Ariana DeBose, and John Leguizamo.
  - Executive produced by Andy Weir, author of 'Project Hail Mary', and written by Benjamin Percy, author of 'The Ninth Metal', the project centers on a team of astronauts whose ship is destroyed by a quantum anomaly, causing them to crash-land on the same deadly exoplanet across three different timelines: the present, a hostile alien past, and a machine-ruled future.
  - IGN exclusively revealed the cover art, which Percy describes as hinting at 'three different timelines' with astronauts spiraling into a vortex.
  - The production process is described by Weir as highly collaborative, similar to filmmaking, involving improvisation and feedback from actors, contrasting it with the solitary nature of writing novels.
  - Weir notes that the project is the first of several he will curate for Audible, involving active workshop sessions rather than passive approval.
  - Percy highlights the 'three-dimensionality' of the audio experience, urging listeners to wear good headphones to fully appreciate the sound design.

[2026-08-16] Percy Jackson Season 3 Trailer Reveals Intense 'Titan's Curse' Adventure for November 2026
24matins.fr — https://www.24matins.fr/percy-jackson-la-saison-3-promet-son-aventure-la-plus-intense-1419000
  - According to a report by Jordan Servan published on August 16, 2026, the third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' has released its official trailer, promising its most intense adventure yet.
  - The season, which adapts the book 'The Titan's Curse,' is scheduled to premiere on Disney+ on November 20, 2026.
  - In this installment, the protagonist Percy Jackson must embark on a mission to save Annabeth while confronting the forces of the Titan Kronos and a dangerous prophecy.
  - The production team, including author Rick Riordan, has described this season as 'the most faithful to the book we have had so far.'.

[2026-08-03] Great White Shark Percy Completes 4,660-Mile Journey from Canada to Long Island
SSBCrack News — https://news.ssbcrack.com/great-white-shark-percy-tracks-4660-miles-from-canada-to-long-island/
  - Percy, a subadult great white shark, is making headlines for a 4,660-mile migration journey from Canada to Long Island.
  - Initially tagged on July 28, 2025, off the coast of Nova Scotia, Percy weighed 432 pounds and measured 9 feet, 9 inches at the time of tagging.
  - On the anniversary of his tagging, Percy pinged off the coast of Long Island, about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York, having traveled from Sea Isle City, New Jersey the previous day.
  - OCEARCH, in collaboration with the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station, tagged Percy to study the seasonal behaviors of young white sharks and enhance public knowledge about marine ecosystem health.
  - Through the OCEARCH Global Shark Tracker app, over 400 ocean animals, including Percy, can be tracked in real-time, enriching scientific understanding and fostering appreciation for marine life.

[2026-07-23] Highlights from the First Day of Comic-Con 2026
San Diego Union-Tribune — https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/07/23/comic-con-2026-the-best-things-we-saw-thursday/
  - On Thursday, July 23, 2026, Comic-Con International in San Diego kicked off its first full day with panels, cosplayers, and brand activations.
  - The Hall H panel for the Disney+ series 'Percy Jackson & the Olympians' featured cast members Walker Scobell, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Tamara Smart, Levi Chrisopulos, and Olive Abercrombie, alongside showrunners Dan Shotz and Craig Silverstein.
  - The panel announced that the third season, adapting 'The Titan's Curse,' will debut on November 20, 2026.
  - Voice actor Jim Cummings signed autographs for fans at the Saturday Morning Cards, LLC booth.
  - Cosplay highlights included Jonathan Studinka's 'Helldivers 2' suit, Chris Dimoff's 'Red One' outfit, Ryan Heldiz-Napuli's animatronic Anzellan from 'The Mandalorian and Grogu,' and Phil and Ivy Montegut's 'Hazbin Hotel' costumes.
  - The Gaslamp Quarter archway was decorated with 'Avengers: Doomsday' branding, while a Hot Wheels Porsche 911 GT3 R (992) collaboration with K-Pop Demon Hunters was unveiled outside the convention center.
  - Gamers gathered at the Marriott Marquis San Diego Marina to play the unreleased PC game 'Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game' for a chance to win merchandise.
  - Additionally, a shark statue at San Diego Children's Park promoted the premiere of Shark Week on Hulu and HBO Max on July 26, and an advertisement for HBO's 'The House of the Dragon' was displayed at the Museum of Illusions.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The OCEARCH tracker's Percy detail page shows his LATEST PING as Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM and LATEST Z-PING as Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM — no newer pings have been recorded since mid-August 2026. His last confirmed location (per Fox Weather, early August 2026) was about 14 miles off Long Island, NY, after having traveled up from Sea Isle City, NJ.
  Last updated: Aug 16, 2026 (latest Z-ping shown on tracker as of Oct 11, 2026) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: November 1, 2026 has not yet occurred (today is Oct 11, 2026), so the question cannot be resolved yet. Percy's tag appears to have gone quiet since mid-August 2026 (no new pings through at least early October per the tracker's main list, which still shows other sharks like Contender and Ocracoke pinging as recently as Oct 9, 2026 while Percy's entry is unchanged at Aug 16, 2026). His last known position was off Long Island, NY (due west landmass would be roughly New York/New Jersey), but this is nearly 3 months stale and his position on Nov 1, 2026 is unknown — he could resume pinging or remain silent by then.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.foxweather.com/watch/fmc-5806j4n3w5xuugm8 (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (19 results):
Based on my research, here's a comprehensive summary of both queries, which largely overlap since they concern the same shark:

## Query 1: OCEARCH Percy Great White Shark Ping — October 2026

**Key finding: No new ping for Percy has been recorded in October 2026.** The OCEARCH tracker page, which reflects data from around early-to-mid October 2026 (based on other sharks' pings dated Oct 2–10, 2026 appearing on the same page), still lists 
Percy's latest Z-Ping as Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM, with the shark measuring 9 ft. 9 in. and 432 lbs
. 

By contrast, other OCEARCH-tracked sharks have pinged more recently in October 2026 — for example, Ormond (Oct 10), Bob (Oct 9), Baker and Breton (Oct 7), Crystal and Contender (Oct 6), and Ocracoke (Oct 2), according to the 
OCEARCH Shark Tracker's recent pings list
. Percy, however, does not appear among these more recent pings.

**Source:** [OCEARCH Shark Tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/) (page content dated ~Oct 2026)

## Query 2: OCEARCH Percy Shark Latest Ping Location — 2026

**Latest confirmed data (as of search results):**
- According to Percy's dedicated OCEARCH tracker profile page, his 
last ping was recorded Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, with a latest Z-Ping on Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM
. At that point, he had been 
tracked for 379 days and traveled 5,350 miles
 since tagging.

**Timeline of Percy's 2026 movements leading up to this:**
- **May 11, 2026** – Percy 
pinged about 30 miles from Pensacola Beach's white-sanded shores for the second time
, continuing his presence in the Gulf of Mexico. A local report noted 
Percy swimming near the Pensacola Beach coastline, detected via satellite tag signal
, as part of the broader North Atlantic white shark migration pattern into the Gulf during winter/spring months.
- **July 28, 2026** – Exactly one year after being tagged, 
Percy pinged just off the coast of Long Island, about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York
. Notably, 
in less than a day, Percy traveled from off the coast of Sea Isle City, New Jersey, up to Long Island
. By this point, 
having made the trek from Canada down into the Gulf and back up the East Coast, he had traveled 4,660 miles
. Researchers noted he was 
making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters
.

**Background on Percy:**
- 
Percy was tagged and sampled on July 28th, 2025, in Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, by the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station Team, in collaboration with OCEARCH
.
- 
Percy is a 9-foot, 9-inch sub-adult male white shark, weighing an estimated 432 pounds at the time of tagging
.
- 
He was the sixth shark tagged during OCEARCH's summer residency field research study in 2025
.
- Regarding his name's origin, 
Percy was named after a member of the Cross family, a prominent family residing on the Tancook Islands off the coast of Nova Scotia
.

**Sources:**
- [OCEARCH Tracker - Percy Detail Page](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy)
- [FoxWeather - Great whi

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
Where will the great white shark Percy be on November 1, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Fox Weather: [OCEARCH tags great white shark Percy off coast of Nova Scotia](https://www.foxweather.com/watch/fmc-5806j4n3w5xuugm8)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "4b208e73a2d14f18", "sheet_id": "15"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the closest landmass due west of the shark Percy according to the most recent ping at his [Ocearch tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy) as of November 1, 2026.

## Fine Print
For example, the ping on July 6, 2026 had Florida being due west of Percy. Thus a question resolving then would have been the option corresponding with that location.

## Options
  - Nova Scotia
  - Maine
  - Massachusetts
  - New York
  - New Jersey
  - Any landmass south of New Jersey
  - Anywhere else

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The OCEARCH tracker's Percy detail page shows his LATEST PING as Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM and LATEST Z-PING as Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM — no newer pings have been recorded since mid-August 2026. His last confirmed location (per Fox Weather, early August 2026) was about 14 miles off Long Island, NY, after having traveled up from Sea Isle City, NJ.
  Last updated: Aug 16, 2026 (latest Z-ping shown on tracker as of Oct 11, 2026) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: November 1, 2026 has not yet occurred (today is Oct 11, 2026), so the question cannot be resolved yet. Percy's tag appears to have gone quiet since mid-August 2026 (no new pings through at least early October per the tracker's main list, which still shows other sharks like Contender and Ocracoke pinging as recently as Oct 9, 2026 while Percy's entry is unchanged at Aug 16, 2026). His last known position was off Long Island, NY (due west landmass would be roughly New York/New Jersey), but this is nearly 3 months stale and his position on Nov 1, 2026 is unknown — he could resume pinging or remain silent by then.
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: fetch: https://www.foxweather.com/watch/fmc-5806j4n3w5xuugm8 (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: render_url: https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy (HTTP 200)

### web_search (SUCCESS)
Web search summary (19 results):
Based on my research, here's a comprehensive summary of both queries, which largely overlap since they concern the same shark:

## Query 1: OCEARCH Percy Great White Shark Ping — October 2026

**Key finding: No new ping for Percy has been recorded in October 2026.** The OCEARCH tracker page, which reflects data from around early-to-mid October 2026 (based on other sharks' pings dated Oct 2–10, 2026 appearing on the same page), still lists 
Percy's latest Z-Ping as Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM, with the shark measuring 9 ft. 9 in. and 432 lbs
. 

By contrast, other OCEARCH-tracked sharks have pinged more recently in October 2026 — for example, Ormond (Oct 10), Bob (Oct 9), Baker and Breton (Oct 7), Crystal and Contender (Oct 6), and Ocracoke (Oct 2), according to the 
OCEARCH Shark Tracker's recent pings list
. Percy, however, does not appear among these more recent pings.

**Source:** [OCEARCH Shark Tracker](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/) (page content dated ~Oct 2026)

## Query 2: OCEARCH Percy Shark Latest Ping Location — 2026

**Latest confirmed data (as of search results):**
- According to Percy's dedicated OCEARCH tracker profile page, his 
last ping was recorded Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, with a latest Z-Ping on Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM
. At that point, he had been 
tracked for 379 days and traveled 5,350 miles
 since tagging.

**Timeline of Percy's 2026 movements leading up to this:**
- **May 11, 2026** – Percy 
pinged about 30 miles from Pensacola Beach's white-sanded shores for the second time
, continuing his presence in the Gulf of Mexico. A local report noted 
Percy swimming near the Pensacola Beach coastline, detected via satellite tag signal
, as part of the broader North Atlantic white shark migration pattern into the Gulf during winter/spring months.
- **July 28, 2026** – Exactly one year after being tagged, 
Percy pinged just off the coast of Long Island, about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York
. Notably, 
in less than a day, Percy traveled from off the coast of Sea Isle City, New Jersey, up to Long Island
. By this point, 
having made the trek from Canada down into the Gulf and back up the East Coast, he had traveled 4,660 miles
. Researchers noted he was 
making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters
.

**Background on Percy:**
- 
Percy was tagged and sampled on July 28th, 2025, in Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, by the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station Team, in collaboration with OCEARCH
.
- 
Percy is a 9-foot, 9-inch sub-adult male white shark, weighing an estimated 432 pounds at the time of tagging
.
- 
He was the sixth shark tagged during OCEARCH's summer residency field research study in 2025
.
- Regarding his name's origin, 
Percy was named after a member of the Cross family, a prominent family residing on the Tancook Islands off the coast of Nova Scotia
.

**Sources:**
- [OCEARCH Tracker - Percy Detail Page](https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy)
- [FoxWeather - Great whi

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-11; forecasting closes 2026-10-11; resolves 2026-11-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
9 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 9 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-10] Percy Jackson and the Olympians Season Three Announced for November 20 Premiere
The Futon Critic — http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news/2026/10/10/percy-jackson-and-the-olympians-returns-to-new-york-comic-con-with-walker-scobell-on-the-main-stage-to-talk-season-three-390111/20261010disney01/
  - At New York Comic-Con on October 10, 2026, series star Walker Scobell appeared on the Main Stage to discuss the upcoming third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' with moderator Damian Holbrook.
  - Scobell announced that Season Three will premiere with a two-episode debut on November 20, 2026, followed by two new episodes releasing weekly on Disney+ and Hulu.
  - This season marks the first adaptation of Rick Riordan's third book, 'The Titan's Curse,' which follows Percy Jackson, Annabeth Chase, and Grover Underwood as they embark on a quest to rescue Annabeth from Kronos's forces, free a goddess in chains, and prevent the fall of Olympus.
  - The series, created by Rick Riordan and Jonathan E.
  - Steinberg, features an executive producing team including Dan Shotz, Craig Silverstein, and Ellen Goldsmith-Vein, with the cast including Walker Scobell, Leah Sava' Jeffries, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Tamara Smart, and Levi Chrisopulos.

[2026-10-10] Walker Scobell to Discuss Percy Jackson Season 3 at New York Comic Con
TVLine — https://www.tvline.com/2282586/percy-jackson-new-york-comic-con-panel-2026-walker-scobell/
  - Actor Walker Scobell is attending a panel at New York Comic Con on Sunday, October 11, 2026, at 6 pm in Hall 1D to discuss the upcoming third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' on Disney+.
  - According to the official logline, Season 3, based on Rick Riordan's book 'The Titan's Curse' and scheduled to premiere on Friday, November 20, 2026, will feature the disappearance of Annabeth and the 'Great Prophecy' from the Oracle of Delphi, which dictates the fate of Olympus.
  - While Scobell is the only cast member appearing at the event, the full cast includes Leah Sava Jeffries, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Dior Goodjohn, Daniel Diemer, and Tamara Smart, as reported by TVLine.

[2026-10-10] Disney Announces New Episode Format for Percy Jackson Season 3
CBR — https://www.cbr.com/percy-jackson-and-the-olympians-season-3-episode-format/
  - Disney announced a change to the release format for the third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' ahead of its November 20, 2026 premiere on Disney+ and Hulu.
  - According to a post shared on X by Disney, the season will consist of eight episodes spread across four weeks, with two episodes released weekly starting November 20 and concluding on December 11.
  - This marks a departure from the previous format, where the first two seasons debuted with two episodes at once before switching to a single weekly release.
  - The season, which will be the first on-screen adaptation of Rick Riordan's 'The Titan's Curse,' was previewed at New York Comic-Con by series star Walker Scobell and moderator Damian Holbrook.
  - The season's logline, as reported by CBR, states: 'The stakes are higher than ever before as Percy is faced with the sudden disappearance of Annabeth and the impending Great Prophecy provided by the Oracle of Delphi, dictating the fate of Olympus.' The cast includes Walker Scobell, Leah Sava Jeffries, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Tamara Smart, and Levi Chrisopulos.
  - Executive producers include Rick Riordan, Jonathan E.
  - Steinberg, and Jet Wilkinson (who serves as EP on the final two episodes).

[2026-10-09] 12th International Literary Parks Days to Honor Authors and Landscapes
Interris.it — https://www.interris.it/cultura/giornate-parchi-letterari-visite-nei-luoghi-che-hanno-ispirato-gli-scrittori/
  - The International Literary Parks Days are returning for their 12th edition from October 17 to November 2, 2026, featuring events, meetings, and readings across Italy and abroad.
  - Organized with the patronage of the Italian National Commission for UNESCO, the initiative invites visitors to experience the landscapes that inspired authors, including the Alps studied by Nino Chiovini, the Sardinian streets of Grazia Deledda, the Pescina of Ignazio Silone, and the settings of 'Christ Stopped at Eboli' in Aliano.
  - Specific events include a meeting on the Alpine landscape in Verbania, a visit to the Percy B.
  - Shelley Literary Park in Lerici, and a centenary celebration of Hemingway's 'A Farewell to Arms' in Riomaggiore with his grandson, John Hemingway.
  - Other highlights include a literary marathon in Due Carrare, a tribute to Michelangelo in Bibbiena, a presentation on Ovid in Sulmona, and a commemoration of Pier Paolo Pasolini in Ostia on November 2, marking 51 years since his death.
  - Additional events cover locations dedicated to Michele Parrella, Isabella Morra, Policarpo Petrocchi, and Mary Oliver in Florida.

[2026-10-09] Percy Jackson and the Olympians Season 3 Release Date and Cast Revealed
Terra — https://www.terra.com.br/diversao/com-o-seu-cavalo-alado-percy-jackson-ganha-os-ceus-em-novo-poster-da-3-temporada,fb3715fb9acca00859f54e66f244df109zjofpzu.html
  - The third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' is scheduled to premiere on Disney+ on November 20, 2026.
  - In the upcoming season, Percy Jackson (played by Walker Scobell) and his friends will race against time to rescue the missing goddess Artemis and stop an ancient monster awakened by the strengthening Titan Cronos.
  - A new poster released by Disney+ depicts Percy riding his pegasus, Blackjack.
  - The season will feature the return of the main trio—Walker Scobell, Leah Jeffries, and Aryan Simhadri—and introduce new cast members including Tamara Smart as Thalia Grace, Kate McKinnon as Aphrodite, Dafne Keen as Artemis, and the di Angelo siblings Nico and Bianca.
  - The series, based on Rick Riordan's books, will also see the return of the main god ensemble, including Lin-Manuel Miranda as Hermes and Toby Stephens as Poseidon.

[2026-10-09] Andy Weir and Benjamin Percy Reveal Details of Upcoming Audible Original 'Exoplanet'
IGN Southeast Asia — https://sea.ign.com/interview/250063/first-look-andy-weir-teases-new-sci-fi-audio-project-exoplanet
  - IGN Southeast Asia reports that the Audible Original sci-fi audio thriller 'Exoplanet' is set to release on November 5, 2026, featuring a star-studded cast including Anthony Mackie, Ariana DeBose, and John Leguizamo.
  - Executive produced by Andy Weir, author of 'Project Hail Mary', and written by Benjamin Percy, author of 'The Ninth Metal', the project centers on a team of astronauts whose ship is destroyed by a quantum anomaly, causing them to crash-land on the same deadly exoplanet across three different timelines: the present, a hostile alien past, and a machine-ruled future.
  - IGN exclusively revealed the cover art, which Percy describes as hinting at 'three different timelines' with astronauts spiraling into a vortex.
  - The production process is described by Weir as highly collaborative, similar to filmmaking, involving improvisation and feedback from actors, contrasting it with the solitary nature of writing novels.
  - Weir notes that the project is the first of several he will curate for Audible, involving active workshop sessions rather than passive approval.
  - Percy highlights the 'three-dimensionality' of the audio experience, urging listeners to wear good headphones to fully appreciate the sound design.

[2026-08-16] Percy Jackson Season 3 Trailer Reveals Intense 'Titan's Curse' Adventure for November 2026
24matins.fr — https://www.24matins.fr/percy-jackson-la-saison-3-promet-son-aventure-la-plus-intense-1419000
  - According to a report by Jordan Servan published on August 16, 2026, the third season of 'Percy Jackson and the Olympians' has released its official trailer, promising its most intense adventure yet.
  - The season, which adapts the book 'The Titan's Curse,' is scheduled to premiere on Disney+ on November 20, 2026.
  - In this installment, the protagonist Percy Jackson must embark on a mission to save Annabeth while confronting the forces of the Titan Kronos and a dangerous prophecy.
  - The production team, including author Rick Riordan, has described this season as 'the most faithful to the book we have had so far.'.

[2026-08-03] Great White Shark Percy Completes 4,660-Mile Journey from Canada to Long Island
SSBCrack News — https://news.ssbcrack.com/great-white-shark-percy-tracks-4660-miles-from-canada-to-long-island/
  - Percy, a subadult great white shark, is making headlines for a 4,660-mile migration journey from Canada to Long Island.
  - Initially tagged on July 28, 2025, off the coast of Nova Scotia, Percy weighed 432 pounds and measured 9 feet, 9 inches at the time of tagging.
  - On the anniversary of his tagging, Percy pinged off the coast of Long Island, about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York, having traveled from Sea Isle City, New Jersey the previous day.
  - OCEARCH, in collaboration with the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station, tagged Percy to study the seasonal behaviors of young white sharks and enhance public knowledge about marine ecosystem health.
  - Through the OCEARCH Global Shark Tracker app, over 400 ocean animals, including Percy, can be tracked in real-time, enriching scientific understanding and fostering appreciation for marine life.

[2026-07-23] Highlights from the First Day of Comic-Con 2026
San Diego Union-Tribune — https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/07/23/comic-con-2026-the-best-things-we-saw-thursday/
  - On Thursday, July 23, 2026, Comic-Con International in San Diego kicked off its first full day with panels, cosplayers, and brand activations.
  - The Hall H panel for the Disney+ series 'Percy Jackson & the Olympians' featured cast members Walker Scobell, Aryan Simhadri, Charlie Bushnell, Tamara Smart, Levi Chrisopulos, and Olive Abercrombie, alongside showrunners Dan Shotz and Craig Silverstein.
  - The panel announced that the third season, adapting 'The Titan's Curse,' will debut on November 20, 2026.
  - Voice actor Jim Cummings signed autographs for fans at the Saturday Morning Cards, LLC booth.
  - Cosplay highlights included Jonathan Studinka's 'Helldivers 2' suit, Chris Dimoff's 'Red One' outfit, Ryan Heldiz-Napuli's animatronic Anzellan from 'The Mandalorian and Grogu,' and Phil and Ivy Montegut's 'Hazbin Hotel' costumes.
  - The Gaslamp Quarter archway was decorated with 'Avengers: Doomsday' branding, while a Hot Wheels Porsche 911 GT3 R (992) collaboration with K-Pop Demon Hunters was unveiled outside the convention center.
  - Gamers gathered at the Marriott Marquis San Diego Marina to play the unreleased PC game 'Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game' for a chance to win merchandise.
  - Additionally, a shark statue at San Diego Children's Park promoted the premiere of Shark Week on Hulu and HBO Max on July 26, and an advertisement for HBO's 'The House of the Dragon' was displayed at the Museum of Illusions.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-10/11] OCEARCH's official tracker page for Percy shows his **latest real GPS ping was Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM**, and his **latest (imprecise) "Z-Ping" was Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM** — meaning no confirmed location update for roughly two months as of the question's open date. 
DATE TAGGED: Jul 28, 2025, LOCATION TAGGED: Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, LATEST PING: Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, LATEST Z-PING: Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM, totaling 379 days and 5,350 mi traveled.
 (ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy)
- [2026-10-10] The public OCEARCH global tracker list page likewise still shows Percy's most recent entry as the Aug 16, 2026 Z-ping, with no newer activity logged on the main tracker as of this fetch. 
"Percy – White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) Z-Ping: Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM ### Percy 9 ft. 9 in. 432 lbs."
 (ocearch.org/tracker/)
- [2026-08-01] Percy's last clearly reported media location was off **Long Island, New York** — 
"On Tuesday, exactly a year after he was tagged, Percy pinged just off the coast of Long Island, about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York."
 He had just come up from New Jersey. 
"In less than a day, Percy traveled from off the coast of Sea Isle City, New Jersey, up to Long Island."
 Reporters noted he was 
"making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters."
 (foxweather.com)
- [2026-05-11] Earlier in 2026, Percy had wintered in the Gulf, pinging off Florida's Gulf Coast near Pensacola; a separate archival (non-SPOT) biologging tag was recovered from him there, 
"On April 26, after traveling through the western North Atlantic, he was detected off the coast of Pensacola Beach, where researchers recovered his tag, collecting 270 days' worth of data."
 His live-tracking SPOT tag remained active afterward (it continued pinging in July–August). (theadvocate.com/nola.com)
- [2026-05-13] Confirms the Gulf detour: 
"Percy, a 432-pound great white shark, pinged about 30 miles from Pensacola Beach's white-sanded shores for the second time on May 11."
 (aol.com)
- [2025-11-23] One year ago, OCEARCH reported Percy was already migrating south along the Mid-Atlantic by late November: 
"Percy, a male white shark, checked in off Atlantic City, making his own steady move down the Mid-Atlantic."
 This is a useful seasonal analog for where he might be around the Nov 1 resolution date this year if he resumes a similar southbound pattern. (x.com/OCEARCH)
- [2026-10-10] No recent OCEARCH blog post, Instagram update, or news article in the last 30 days mentions a new Percy ping; all current coverage found is about the unrelated "Percy Jackson" TV franchise, not the shark.
- [2026-10-02] Other OCEARCH-tagged Atlantic sharks (e.g., Breton, Ocracoke, Contender) have pinged as recently as early-to-mid October 2026, confirming the tracker and tagging program are actively operating — Percy's silence appears specific to his tag/behavior, not a system-wide outage. 
"LATEST PING: Sep 29, 2026, 1:29:56 PM LATEST Z-PING: Oct 2, 2026, 3:29:55 PM"
 for Breton. (ocearch.org/tracker/detail/breton)
- [2026-08-07] Context on seasonal shark behavior in New England at the time Percy went quiet: other OCEARCH/AWSC-tracked sharks (Marty, Quint) were actively patrolling Cape Cod/Outer Cape waters in August 2026, supporting the idea Percy may have been in New England feeding grounds (common white shark behavior pattern) when his tag last reported. (boston25news.com, wwlp.com)

BOTTOM LINE: As of the question's opening (Oct 11, 2026), Percy's OCEARCH tracker has not recorded a confirmed location ping since Aug 11, 2026 (Z-ping Aug 16), roughly two months of silence, with his last known position off Long Island, NY heading north; last year's seasonal analog (Atlantic City, NJ by Nov 23) suggests that if his tag reactivates before Nov 1, 2026, he is most likely to be found somewhere along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic to New England coast migrating south, but a continued silent/stale tag would leave the question resolving on his last known ping rather than fresh data.

NOT FOUND: The exact geographic coordinates/nearest landmass of the Aug 11, 2026 ping (only "Long Island, NY" confirmed as of late July 2026); any OCEARCH statement explaining the ~2-month data gap (tag malfunction, shark diving/offshore behavior, or battery issue); any news coverage of Percy between mid-August and October 11, 2026.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-10-11] Primary OCEARCH tracker shows Percy's last confirmed live ping was Aug 11, 2026 and his last Z-ping (imprecise signal) was Aug 16, 2026, meaning as of the question's close date he had not reported a new location in roughly 8 weeks. 
DATE TAGGED: Jul 28, 2025, 5:34:00 PM LOCATION TAGGED: Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, LATEST PING: Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, LATEST Z-PING: Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM.
 https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy
- [2026-08-02] Percy's own base rate: a year earlier (July 2025 tagging) he had already traveled from Nova Scotia down through the Gulf of Mexico and back up the East Coast within 12 months, logging 
4,660 miles
 of travel, showing he is a fast, wide-ranging migrator rather than a coastal homebody. https://dnyuz.com/2026/08/02/great-white-shark-percy-pings-14-miles-from-long-island-coast/
- [2025-11-23] One year prior (the closest seasonal analog to this Nov 1 resolution date), Percy himself pinged off Atlantic City, New Jersey, while other OCEARCH sharks (Nori, Goodall) were already further south near Myrtle Beach — i.e., Percy's historical "due west" landmass in the comparable late-autumn window was New Jersey. 
Three white sharks checked in today on the OCEARCH Global Shark Tracker: Nori, a juvenile female, and Goodall, an adult female, both pinged near Myrtle Beach as they continue their seasonal migration south along the U.S. East Coast. Percy, a male white shark, checked in off Atlantic City, making his own steady move down the Mid-Atlantic.
 https://x.com/OCEARCH/status/1992718754313105723
- [2026-05-13] Percy's winter base case: after his fall 2025 Mid-Atlantic transit he continued south and spent the winter in the Gulf of Mexico, pinging off Pensacola Beach in May 2026, matching the general Atlantic white shark overwintering pattern. 
Percy, a 432-pound great white shark, pinged about 30 miles from Pensacola Beach's white-sanded shores for the second time on May 11.
 https://www.aol.com/news/pensacola-beach-had-great-white-151710950.html
- [2026-05-11] A regional OCEARCH scientist framed this as typical: 
"What we've seen is the latest one, Percy, is one of several of those sharks that have gone into the Gulf of Mexico." "This time of year, between December and May, seems to be a really important area for the North Atlantic migration of white sharks."
 https://www.wkrg.com/northwest-florida/escambia-county/great-white-shark-tracked-near-coast-of-pensacola-beach/
- [2025-12-XX] Comparable "favourite" shark Contender (OCEARCH's most-followed Atlantic male) shows the standard fall-migration timeline against which Percy can be benchmarked: 
Contender was tracked "making moves" up the Atlantic Coast over the summer before reaching waters near Newfoundland, Canada, in late September. In late October, Contender started to move south. His tracker pinged multiple times as he traveled around Nova Scotia. On Nov. 12, it showed that Contender had reached New Jersey waters. As of Tuesday night, the 1,650-pound shark was off the coast of Atlantic City.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/massive-great-white-shark-pings-144307707.html
- [2025-12-XX] A second comparable shark, Ernst, was already much farther south by the same date, illustrating wide individual variance: 
Ernst, a female white shark, was making "big moves" and had reached the Florida Keys after having been last seen near the Florida-Georgia border. OCEARCH tagged Ernst...during an expedition to Nova Scotia in October.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/massive-great-white-shark-pings-144307707.html
- [2025-10-30] A third comparable analog, "Ripple" (tagged Sept 30 off Nova Scotia), moved unusually fast, reaching Jacksonville by Oct 25 and Jekyll Island, Georgia by Oct 30 — a reminder that some individuals are already far south of the Mid-Atlantic well before Nov 1. 
The 11-foot male white shark, nicknamed "Ripple," was tagged off Nova Scotia Sept. 30, then raced south to Florida, covering 1,700 miles in just 25 days. Ripple pinged off Jacksonville's coast at 11:11 a.m. on Oct. 25 and surfaced six more times until Oct. 27. As of Oct. 30, Ripple was near Jekyll Island, Georgia.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/newly-tagged-great-white-shark-135454149.html
- [general] OCEARCH's own framing of the aggregate pattern across dozens of tagged Atlantic white sharks: 
Great whites in the Atlantic tend to spend the summer in cooler, prey-dense northern waters, then migrate south to warmer temperatures, OCEARCH said on Instagram.
 https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/massive-great-white-shark-pings-144307707.html
- [general] A synthesis of OCEARCH's East Coast data describes the seasonal "corridor": 
OCEARCH data from the US East Coast revealed that great whites follow a temperature corridor — staying within the 12–18°C band year-round. In summer they move north toward New England; in winter they converge off Florida and the Carolinas.
 https://www.sharkdatalab.com/en/blog/great-white-migration-patterns
- [2026-10-11] As of question close, Percy's position is stale relative to several other OCEARCH sharks that have pinged far more recently (e.g., Ormond Oct 10, Ocracoke/Morada Oct 2), underscoring that base-rate migration timing is a better guide than his own tracker, which may or may not refresh before Nov 1. https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/

BOTTOM LINE: Historically, Percy and comparable OCEARCH-tagged Atlantic white sharks begin their southbound fall migration in October and are typically somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic (New Jersey to the Carolinas) around early-to-mid November — exactly where Percy himself was on this date last year (Atlantic City, NJ, per the Nov 23, 2025 ping) — with a non-trivial minority of individuals already reaching Georgia/Florida by Nov 1; this base rate favors a Mid-Atlantic state (New Jersey/Delaware/Maryland/Virginia) as the modal answer, with Florida/Carolinas as secondary possibilities and Nova Scotia/New England as unlikely given the seasonal southward push.

NOT FOUND: No ping data for Percy between Aug 16, 2026 and the Oct 11, 2026 question-open date (an unusually long gap versus other actively-pinging OCEARCH sharks); no official OCEARCH forecast, odds, or expert prediction specifically naming where Percy will be on Nov 1, 2026; no record of this exact "due west landmass" format being used in a prior resolved forecasting question to establish a direct historical base rate for this specific contest type.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-10-11] OCEARCH's primary tracker confirms Percy's tag is still stuck at the same two readings as of this fetch: latest full GPS ping Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM and latest Z-ping Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM — no new data in the ~95 days since (ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy; ocearch.org/tracker/).

- [2026-10-06/09] By contrast, the tracker's own homepage shows multiple other OCEARCH sharks pinging in the days right before question-open — 
Contender – White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias), Oct 6 2026, 11:38 PM
 and 
Mira ... Z-Ping: Oct 9 2026, 10:00 PM
 — confirming the Argos satellite pipeline and OCEARCH's reporting system are fully operational; the silence is specific to Percy's tag/behavior (ocearch.org/tracker/).

- [mechanism] The SPOT tag only reports when the shark's dorsal fin clears the surface long enough to dry the antenna; per OCEARCH's own explainer, 
a SPOT Tag allows OCEARCH to follow sharks in near real time, transmitting a "ping" when the shark's fin remains above the water's surface for a brief period as the animal swims
. A full-accuracy fix historically required the tag to 
breach the surface for a minimum of 90 seconds with the transmitter pinging three times in a row
 — so offshore/deep-swimming behavior alone, not a dead battery, can cause a multi-week-to-multi-month data gap (ocearch.org/blog/on-the-lift; newsweek.com/great-white-shark-satellites-virginia-1497725).

- [mechanism/battery] Independent sourcing confirms OCEARCH SPOT tags typically run 2–5 years on battery life (
SPOT satellite tags typically transmit for 2 to 5 years before the battery dies or biofouling stops the signal
), and Percy's tag is only ~15 months old (tagged July 28, 2025), making outright battery failure an unlikely explanation for the gap versus simple low-surfacing behavior (welovesharks.org/shark-tagging-understanding-the-risks-involved).

- [precedent] OCEARCH's own history shows multi-month silences in white sharks are not unusual and can be followed by sudden long-distance reappearances far from the last known point: tracked shark Katherine 
has not appeared on their system since May 2019; it was thought her tracker ... had run out of batteries
 before pinging again a year later off Virginia, and a similarly named shark "Danny" 
after months of silence, is back in a "hotspot" for white shark activity ... pinged in St. George's Bay off the coast of Nova Scotia
 this past July — a reminder that Percy's eventual reappearance point is not constrained to extrapolating in a straight line from Long Island.

- [analog] The closest within-cohort analog for an abrupt, lengthy silence is Contender, who per Fox8's own report (cited in colleague's Expert View) went silent for roughly two months in spring 2026 before resurfacing far north in the Gulf of Maine rather than where last seen — underscoring that if Percy's tag reactivates before Nov 1, there's a real chance the position will not match a simple southbound extrapolation from his Long Island/NJ positions in late July–August.

- [control] No human actor "controls" Percy's location — resolution hinges entirely on (a) whether Percy's SPOT tag surfaces long enough to register a full ping before Nov 1, and (b) his autonomous migratory behavior. OCEARCH does not appear to have a scheduled fall 2026 expedition or recapture event for Percy specifically; searches found no OCEARCH fall 2026 Nova Scotia/Northeast expedition press release newer than archived 2021-2022 editions, suggesting no planned re-tagging intervention that could force a fresh reading.

- [fallback] Per the question's fine print, if no new ping occurs by Nov 1, the resolution falls back to "the most recent ping ... as of November 1, 2026" — meaning the Aug 11/16, 2026 position (last clearly reported near Long Island, NY, per Aug 1 Fox Weather coverage already in hand) would stand as the resolving location by default if the current silence continues through the deadline.

BOTTOM LINE: The deciding factors are (1) whether Percy's SPOT tag resurfaces with a valid ping before Nov 1 — entirely outside human control and currently unresolved after ~2 months of silence despite a fully functional tracker network — and (2) if it does ping, where his autonomous fall migration has taken him, with OCEARCH's own precedents (Katherine, Danny, Contender) showing long-silent sharks can reappear well off a simple southward extrapolation; if it does not ping, the stale Aug ping near Long Island/New Jersey becomes the binding answer by the fine print's fallback rule.

NOT FOUND: Any confirmation of a new Percy ping between Aug 16 and Oct 11, 2026; any OCEARCH statement diagnosing the cause of Percy's specific data gap; any announced OCEARCH fall 2026 expedition that might re-tag or re-locate Percy before Nov 1.

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-10-11] No dedicated Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, or Metaculus market for "Percy the shark" location was found in searches; this appears to be a bespoke bot-tournament question rather than a tracked public betting market. No numeric odds exist to report. (General platform background only, via https://www.bleap.finance/en-us/blog/best-prediction-market-platforms)
- [2026-10-11] The primary "expert" source is OCEARCH itself: Percy's official tracker page shows his 
first ping Jul 28, 2025, latest ping Aug 11, 2026, 8:30:46 AM, latest Z-ping Aug 16, 2026, 9:05:33 AM, tagged 427 days ago, having traveled 379 days and 5,350 miles
 — https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy
- [2026-10-11] OCEARCH's live tracker homepage, checked for an updated position in October, still lists Percy's last Z-ping as 
Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM
, meaning no ping has been publicly logged for roughly two months as of question close — https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/
- [2026-05-13] OCEARCH field analyst Chris Powers (cited by WKRG) framed Percy's behavior within a known seasonal pattern, noting 
"Most of their tagging starts in Nova Scotia... What we've seen is the latest one, Percy, is one of several of those sharks that have gone into the Gulf of Mexico... This time of year, between December and May, seems to be a really important area for the North Atlantic migration of white sharks"
 — https://www.wkrg.com/northwest-florida/escambia-county/great-white-shark-tracked-near-coast-of-pensacola-beach/
- [2026-05-13] A Baton Rouge Advocate report cited OCEARCH researchers' expectation of a seasonal reversal: 
"Percy has likely reached the end of his migratory journey and will begin to make his way back to Nova Scotia, where he was originally tagged in July 2025."
 This is the clearest "expert projection" found, dated mid-May 2026 — https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/great-white-shark-florida-coast/article_4c07d630-ebbf-5cb3-a135-cb4dda22cf03.html
- [2026-08-02] Fox Weather's science desk, drawing on OCEARCH data, reported Percy's northbound summer push and offered an informal forecast: 
"Tagged just over a year ago on July 28, 2025, by OCEARCH in collaboration with the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station off the coast of Nova Scotia, Percy has made the trek from Canada all the way down into the Gulf and back up the East Coast."
 and that he was 
"making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters"
 — https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/great-white-shark-percy-long-island-new-york-ocearch
- [2026-08-20] A comparable OCEARCH-tracked shark, Contender, illustrates how unreliable short-term "expert" location forecasts can be: Fox8 reported 
"the massive shark's track went silent for about two months... On April 23, OCEARCH tracking showed Contendor was off the North Carolina Coast. He did not surface again until June 29 in The Gulf of Maine."
 This shows OCEARCH's own trackers are frequently surprised by long silent gaps and large jumps, undermining confident near-term predictions for Percy — https://fox8.com/news/tracking-massive-shark-that-had-gone-silent-pings/
- [2025-06-19 archive context, pattern precedent] Historical OCEARCH commentary on the "Mary Lee" tracking gap shows experts' default explanation for long silences is tag battery failure rather than any specific location forecast: 
"Chris Fischer of Ocearch tells Jacksonville.com that it's more likely the batteries in her transmitter, designed to last about five years, have finally given out."
 Analysts applying this base rate to Percy (tag active since July 2025) would note his tag is well within normal operating life, making a battery-death explanation for the Aug–Oct 2026 silence less likely than a normal low-surfacing period — https://www.foxnews.com/science/great-white-shark-tracked-for-years-has-fallen-off-the-radar
- [2026-10-11] Wikipedia's "Contender (shark)" page, used by journalists as a secondary tracking log, confirms the broader expert/analyst consensus that OCEARCH-tagged North Atlantic white sharks follow a seasonal loop—summering in Canada, pinging the Mid-Atlantic in fall, wintering in the Gulf/Florida—providing the main qualitative "forecast" framework analysts apply to Percy in lieu of hard data: 
"In February 2026, it was noted that he was lingering in the Cape Fear area of North Carolina for unknown reasons."
 — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contender_(shark)

BOTTOM LINE: No betting markets or formal forecasters cover this question; the only "expert" signal is OCEARCH's own biologists/press officers, who (as of May–August 2026) expected Percy to be migrating back north/toward Nova Scotia in summer, consistent with the general pattern of tagged Atlantic white sharks moving south along the East Coast in fall — but comparable sharks (e.g., Contender) have gone silent for 1–2+ months before resurfacing far from where expected, so OCEARCH-linked commentary should be treated as directional/seasonal rather than a precise location forecast for November 1, 2026.

NOT FOUND: No Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, or Metaculus market specifically tracking Percy's location or this OCEARCH-landmass question; no OCEARCH or journalist statement addressing Percy's position after the Aug 16, 2026 Z-ping; no official explanation (battery failure vs. offshore behavior) for the two-month data gap as of October 2026.

### FAVORITE CASE
- [2026-08-02] Percy's last fully-reported media ping placed him "about 14 miles from Ocean Beach, New York" off Long Island's south shore, having arrived there in "less than a day" from Sea Isle City, New Jersey — confirming his most recent *narrated* position sits squarely on the NY/NJ Mid-Atlantic coastline, not farther north or south. (https://dnyuz.com/2026/08/02/great-white-shark-percy-pings-14-miles-from-long-island-coast/)
- [2026-10-11] OCEARCH's own tracker, re-fetched today, still timestamps Percy's precise "LATEST PING" at Aug 11, 2026 (either 1:12 AM or 8:30 AM listed on different page loads) and his imprecise "Z-Ping" at Aug 16, 2026 — an unchanged ~56–61-day-old data point as of question open, meaning any Nov 1 resolution is more likely to rest on this stale NY-area fix than on fresh data. (https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/detail/percy)
- [2026-10-11] By contrast, the tracker's own "recent pings" rail shows peer sharks Ormond, Breton, Crystal, Contender (Oct 6), Ocracoke and Morada (Oct 2) all reporting within the last two weeks, isolating Percy's silence as tag-specific rather than a platform outage — reinforcing that whatever position is "due west" will likely be whichever one he last confirmed. (https://www.ocearch.org/tracker/)
- [2025-11-23] One year ago to the week, OCEARCH tweeted that "Percy, a male white shark, checked in off Atlantic City, making his own steady move down the Mid-Atlantic," placing him in New Jersey waters in the exact late-Nov analog window. (https://x.com/OCEARCH/status/1992718754313105723)
- [2025-11-25] Barely 24 hours after that Atlantic City check-in, a Virginia TV station reported Percy had already reached "off the coast along the Eastern Shore" in Accomack County, Virginia — a jump of roughly 150 miles in about a day, which is the concrete "mechanism" number behind why Mid-Atlantic states (NJ through VA) dominate the plausible range rather than any single state. (https://www.wavy.com/news/ocearch-tracking-2-great-white-sharks-off-the-virginia-coast/)
- [2026-01-17/2026-02-12] The comparable Atlantic male Contender, tagged in Jan 2025, was still lingering in the Cape Fear, North Carolina area in February 2026 "for unknown reasons," per Wikipedia's shark-tracking summary — illustrating that individual whites can stall well south of the population's modal "New England summer" pattern, a precedent that cuts both ways for Percy's eventual re-ping location. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contender_(shark))
- [2026-general] A third-party synthesis of OCEARCH East Coast data states great whites "follow a temperature corridor — staying within the 12–18°C band year-round," moving north in summer and converging "off Florida and the Carolinas" in winter — the aggregate seasonal logic that underlies why Mid-Atlantic-to-Carolinas, not New England or Canada, is the favoured corridor for a Nov 1 reading. (https://www.sharkdatalab.com/en/blog/great-white-migration-patterns)
- [2026-05-11] Percy's winter 2025–26 base case already shows he is capable of reaching the Gulf of Mexico by May, per the Pensacola Beach pings, meaning if his tag reactivates with a southbound signal before Nov 1 he has precedent for moving unusually far south unusually fast — a tail risk to the Mid-Atlantic "favourite" rather than a reason to doubt it outright. (https://www.aol.com/news/pensacola-beach-had-great-white-151710950.html)
- [general] OCEARCH's own technical explainer confirms the SPOT tag "transmits only when the dorsal fin clears the water surface," so an extended gap reflects diving/offshore behavior rather than guaranteed tag failure, supporting the expectation that Percy is still alive and swimming somewhere along his normal corridor, simply not surfacing enough to ping. (https://welovesharks.org/shark-tracking-app-ocearch/)

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest evidence-backed favourite is a Mid-Atlantic U.S. state (New York/New Jersey down through Virginia) — anchored both by Percy's last confirmed Long Island/NY-NJ-border fix (Jul 28–Aug 11) and by his own near-identical Nov 23–24, 2025 track (Atlantic City, NJ → Accomack County, VA) — making that corridor the modal resolution whether the Nov 1, 2026 reading comes from a fresh ping or defaults to his last known position.

NOT FOUND: Any Percy-specific ping, sighting, or OCEARCH statement dated after Aug 16, 2026; exact latitude/longitude of the Aug 11 ping (only descriptive "near Long Island" location available); any official OCEARCH comment addressing why Percy's tag has been quiet for roughly two months while peer tags remain active.

### UPSET CASE
**Case for the upset: Percy resolves to Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia) rather than the expected Mid-Atlantic/Southeast landmass.**

- [2026-10-11] Percy's tagging site itself, Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, is explicitly framed by the field station as a "summer residency" site, and 
Percy was tagged and released in Mahone Bay, Nova Scotia, by the Tancook Islands Marine Field Station Team, in collaboration with the OCEARCH Science and Fishing Teams
, meaning a return pulse to that same region is the single most "programmed" behavior in his known history, not an exotic outcome.

- [2026-10-04/06] The clearest live mechanism for an upset is Contender, whose track went dark for roughly two months after an April 23 Outer Banks ping and then resurfaced far north rather than south — 
on Saturday, Oct. 4, Ocearch announced via Instagram that it tracked the apex predator known as Contender to a northern area off the Atlantic Ocean, just beyond the shores of Maine, calling it "a rare ping from the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region where we don't often see signals from Ocearch-tagged sharks."
 His tracker's latest listed ping is 
Oct 6, 2026, 11:38:54 PM, after being tagged off the FL/GA coast
 — proof that an Atlantic white shark silent for ~2 months (exactly Percy's current gap) can reappear in Canadian waters just weeks before a Nov 1 resolution date.

- [2026-08-24] A Canadian Shark Conservancy field-notes piece synthesizing Atlantic Canada telemetry studies argues these sharks exhibit strong site fidelity, not simple south-for-winter migration: 
"They don't live in Canada. They return to Canada,"
 citing a shark (NS2018-03) that 
returned to within less than two kilometres of where researchers had tagged him the year before
 across three consecutive seasons — a documented behavioral pattern that could apply to Percy given his own tagging site is the same field station's primary study area.

- [2026-07-23 historical, cited in CBC archive] This is not a one-off: Hilton, another OCEARCH-tagged shark, 
tagged by the research group Ocearch in March in South Carolina, was back in Nova Scotia waters off Lunenburg
 the following summer, with researchers calling it "a eureka moment" — reinforcing that Nova Scotia functions as a recurring magnet site, not just a one-time tagging location, for this same shark population Percy belongs to.

- [~July 2026, 86 days ago] The Tancook Islands Marine Field Station — Percy's tagging team — confirms ongoing active fieldwork in the same waters: 
last year, in their first year of operations, they tagged 16 white sharks off the coast of Nova Scotia, and the 2026 tagging expedition launches this weekend
, meaning researcher presence and shark concentration in Nova Scotia is elevated again in the 2026 season, increasing both the odds Percy lingers there and the odds any tag malfunction gets caught/re-detected locally.

- [2026-10-10] Confirming no contradictory signal: the public OCEARCH tracker homepage still lists Percy's most recent position only as the 
Z-Ping: Aug 16 2026, 9:05 AM... 9 ft. 9 in. 432 lbs
, meaning there is no fresh data pointing him south (e.g., no Mid-Atlantic or Florida ping) to rule out a Canada-ward reappearance before Nov 1.

- [2025-08-02, Fox Weather] Even the most recent confirmed real movement, from Aug 2026, had him explicitly bound north rather than south: he was 
making moves up the coast of Long Island, most likely heading further north toward cooler waters
 — a northbound trajectory that, if continued/resumed after the tag silence, plausibly carries him into New England/Atlantic Canada waters rather than reversing hard south by Nov 1.

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest upset case is not a Mid-Atlantic or Florida surprise but a return toward Nova Scotia/Atlantic Canada — his own tagging ground and a documented site-fidelity hotspot for this exact OCEARCH population — made newly plausible by Contender's confirmed early-October 2026 reappearance in the Gulf of St. Lawrence after an identical ~2-month silent gap.

NOT FOUND: No direct ping or sighting of Percy himself in Canadian waters in 2026; no OCEARCH statement linking Percy specifically to the 2026 Tancook expedition's recaptures; no confirmation of whether Percy's tag is still transmitting at all (vs. failed) as of October 2026.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources show the outcome already decided as of today? If so, which option and by which source.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market for these options, treat its prices as a strong prior and name the specific evidence it lacks whenever you move away from it. A RELATED market is context only. If no market is listed, there is none — do not assume one.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "Nova Scotia": <prob>,
        "Maine": <prob>,
        "Massachusetts": <prob>,
        "New York": <prob>,
        "New Jersey": <prob>,
        "Any landmass south of New Jersey": <prob>,
        "Anywhere else": <prob>
  }
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).