Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person before December 1, 2026?

- [2026-10-08] Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Trump at the White House to present "new ideas and proposals" to end the Russia-Ukraine war, with 
Witkoff and Kushner might travel to Moscow later this month for more talks with Putin, a source with knowledge said
. This would be an envoy-level meeting with Putin, not Trump-Putin. (axios.com)

- [2026-10-09] Ukrainian and European delegations met Witkoff/Kushner in Miami to discuss a partial ceasefire and security guarantees; 
Witkoff and Kushner also plan to travel to Russia before the end of the month to discuss the "new ideas" with Russian leadership, according to Axios
. No Trump-Putin meeting is attached to this trip. (meduza.io)

- [2026-10-09] Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the war as a 
"strategic stalemate,"
 and 
the Kremlin also said there are no grounds for such a development at this time
 (referring to a peace breakthrough), signaling no imminent Trump-Putin summit is being announced alongside the envoy shuttle diplomacy. (meduza.io)

- [2026-09-24] At the conclusion of Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, Xi said there would be two more opportunities to meet Trump this year — APEC in China and the G20 in Miami — and 
Trump confirmed in a subsequent post to social media that he planned to attend the APEC summit, which will be hosted in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19
. This is before the Dec 1 resolution deadline. (cnn.com)

- [2026-09-02] Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Russian state TV that the possibility of a Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral meeting at APEC 
"This issue was discussed, yes,"
 adding 
"And if it turns out, as has been said, then the three of them will be able to have a meeting."
 (scmp.com)

- [2026-09-01] Per an earlier Kremlin readout, 
Xi Jinping, as the host of the event, noted that Donald Trump and Putin—who has been invited—are expected to attend the summit, which, under favorable conditions, would allow for trilateral talks or a series of bilateral meetings
. (ua.news)

- [2026-10-06] Ukrainian outlet UNN reported that a Putin-Xi bilateral meeting is scheduled at APEC, but 
no one has yet worked out the practical details of a possible meeting between Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit
, indicating a Trump-Putin encounter at APEC is possible but not confirmed. (unn.ua)

- [2026-09-29] A former DPR adviser, Alexander Kazakov, claimed Xi proposed a trilateral Xi-Putin-Trump meeting at the SCO summit in Bishkek and that 
Putin immediately agreed to the proposal, while Trump has yet to commit
 — this is a secondary/unofficial source, not confirmed by US or Kremlin officials directly. (voennoedelo.com)

- [2025-10-31] Context: the last previously-scheduled Trump-Putin bilateral summit (Budapest) was called off before the question's eligibility window opened, after 
Russia's Foreign Ministry reportedly sent a memo to Washington days later repeating its conditions that Ukraine cede territory, reduce its armed forces and vow never to join NATO… The summit was then canceled after a call between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio, who reportedly told Trump that Moscow was "showing no willingness to negotiate."
 No new Trump-Putin bilateral summit has been announced since. (themoscowtimes.com)

- [2026-11-18/19] APEC China 2026 summit in Shenzhen remains the key scheduled event before Dec 1 where both leaders are expected: 
Date: November 18 – 19, 2026… Venues: Main venue Shenzhen
. Both Trump and Putin have been invited and Trump has confirmed attendance; Putin's personal attendance (vs. sending a delegation) has not been finally confirmed in available sources.

BOTTOM LINE: As of October 9, 2026, no Trump-Putin in-person meeting is scheduled; the active diplomatic track involves envoys (Witkoff/Kushner) shuttling to Moscow and Miami, not the two presidents directly, and Washington/Kremlin officials describe the war as a "stalemate." The one concrete scheduled window before the December 1 deadline is the APEC summit in Shenzhen (Nov 18–19), where Russian officials have floated a possible Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral or bilateral sidebar, but as of the latest reports (Oct 6) "no one has yet worked out the practical details," and Trump's commitment to such a meeting is unconfirmed.

NOT FOUND: No official confirmation that Putin will personally attend APEC China 2026 (vs. sending a representative); no confirmed date/venue for a dedicated Trump-Putin bilateral summit after the Budapest cancellation; no White House or Kremlin statement (post-Oct 8) directly addressing a Trump-Putin in-person meeting plan before December 1, 2026.

**Historical base rate (reference class):** Trump and Putin have met in person seven times during Trump's presidencies (2017 Hamburg G20 x2, 2017 Da Nang APEC, 2018 Helsinki, 2018 Buenos Aires G20, 2019 Osaka G20, 2025 Anchorage). Six of these seven occurred on the sidelines of multilateral summits where both leaders were independently scheduled to attend (G20/APEC), and in every instance from 2017-2019 where both leaders attended the same summit, a bilateral or informal meeting occurred — i.e., co-attendance at a major multilateral summit has historically been an almost-certain predictor of an in-person meeting. The one in-presidency summit (Helsinki 2018) was a standalone bilateral meeting arranged specifically for that purpose.

**Relevant upcoming "natural" opportunity:** 
Recent diplomatic signals have positioned a possible trilateral or bilateral encounter on the sidelines of the November 2026 APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, as the leading scenario among traders, with Putin expected to attend the forum in person for the first time in nearly a decade while likely skipping the December G20 in Florida.
 This summit (Nov 18-19) falls within the question's resolution window (before Dec 1, 2026).

**Prediction market odds (outside-view aggregation):**
- On Polymarket's "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?" market (opened May 26, 2026, ~$1.7M volume), as of the most recent data: China 76%, "No meeting by December 31" 21%, United States ~3%, all other locations <1% each. The site's own synthesis: 
China leads market pricing at 75.5% primarily because the APEC summit is scheduled for Shenzhen on November 18-19, with Putin confirmed to attend and Trump expected, creating a concrete window for bilateral or trilateral talks alongside Xi Jinping.

- A separate, newer Polymarket market "Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?" (launched Sep 25, 2026) was pricing 
Kremlin statements have highlighted the possibility of a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the APEC leaders' summit scheduled for November in Shenzhen, with traders assigning a 70.5% implied probability for a joint sighting before the end of 2026
.
- Track record caveat: these same markets have been volatile and sometimes wrong-footed by delays — e.g., an earlier (Sep 2025-vintage) "Where will Trump and Putin meet next" market priced 
"No meeting by June 30" at 100%
 before expiring, and a similar market from mid-2026 showed 
China 70%, No meeting by December 31 27%
 just weeks before the fetch above showed China risen to 76% — indicating odds have been trending upward toward "Yes" as APEC approaches but are not locked in.
- Trump's own stated base rate for negotiation success is informative context but not meeting-specific: ahead of the August 2025 Anchorage summit he said 
"there is a 25 percent chance this meeting will not be a successful meeting"
 — showing that even confirmed meetings have had non-trivial public uncertainty attached beforehand, though that uncertainty was about outcome, not occurrence.

**Caveat/distinction for this specific question:** Unlike the Polymarket "Dec 31" markets, this Metaculus question's window closes Dec 1, 2026 — i.e., it needs the APEC meeting (or some other meeting) to happen specifically before Dec 1. Since APEC falls Nov 18-19, it is captured, but it is the only confirmed near-term scheduled opportunity; the G20 Miami summit (where Putin is reportedly likely to skip) falls in December, outside this window.

BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate strongly favors "Yes" when both leaders are slated to attend the same multilateral summit (as has consistently produced a meeting in 2017-2019), and current prediction markets price a meeting (primarily via APEC Shenzhen, Nov 18-19) at roughly 75-80% likely by year-end 2026, with the APEC date itself falling safely before the Dec 1 cutoff — though these odds have fluctuated considerably over the past year and no meeting is yet formally confirmed.

NOT FOUND: An official, confirmed bilateral/trilateral meeting agenda or White House/Kremlin statement locking in a Trump-Putin encounter at APEC Shenzhen; a Metaculus community/metaculus-prediction percentage for this exact question (45876/46057) was not retrievable via search.

**Key factors determining whether Trump and Putin meet in person before Dec 1, 2026:**

1. **Both leaders' independent confirmation of APEC Shenzhen attendance (Nov 18-19).** This is the single scheduled window inside the resolution period. Trump has publicly confirmed his plans: after Xi's state visit, 
Trump confirmed in a subsequent post to social media that he planned to attend the APEC summit, which will be hosted in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19
, and a Diplomat analysis dated Oct 7 confirms 
Trump is scheduled, officially, for one more international trip this year: from November 16 to 19, to attend the ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit in the Philippines and then to attend the APEC Summit in Shenzhen, China
. Putin's attendance is conditional: as of Sept 25 (TASS), 
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he intends to attend the APEC summit in China. The president reiterated that his trip to the summit will depend on the situation inside Russia
. China's Foreign Ministry formally welcomed this on Oct 3: 
China welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin's attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen this November, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Saturday
. Controlled by: Putin's domestic situation (Russia/Ukraine war dynamics); Trump's schedule (his control).

2. **Whether a Trump-Putin encounter at APEC is being actively planned vs. merely "discussed."** As of Oct 6, Kremlin aide Ushakov stated explicitly that 
Russia, China and the United States have not yet discussed the organization of a possible trilateral meeting of the leaders of the countries on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. According to him, the idea of holding such a meeting is known to all three leaders, but concrete preparations for it are not underway yet. "No one has yet dealt with such a practical elaboration of this meeting," Ushakov said
. This is a lag between stated intent and operational planning — logistics (bilateral vs. trilateral format, security, scheduling) still need to be worked out with roughly six weeks remaining.

3. **Direct Trump-Putin phone diplomacy already addressing the idea.** Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirmed the topic was raised leader-to-leader, not just at aide level: asked whether 
Trump and Putin discussed the idea of a trilateral meeting in Shenzhen during their phone call on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Undoubtedly." "This potential possibility has been mentioned before, and there will be such an opportunity,"
 Peskov said. Putin himself has publicly welcomed the idea at the Valdai forum, where he 
said that a trilateral summit with the leaders of the US and China "may be possible" during the upcoming APEC summit in China... hailed it as "useful"
. This shows top-level buy-in from the Russian side, controlled jointly by Trump and Putin themselves.

4. **State of Ukraine peace negotiations (the substantive precondition some officials want before any leaders' summit).** The parallel envoy track (Witkoff/Kushner) remains the operative channel: Axios (Oct 8-9, already in prior reports) describes a possible Moscow trip by Witkoff/Kushner before the midterms, following their Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 Moscow meetings with Putin (confirmed via Fox News/TASS-style readouts, e.g., the Jan 21-22, 2026 Kremlin-confirmed Witkoff-Kushner-Putin meeting). This recurring pattern shows that envoy-level Moscow visits have become routine substitutes for direct Trump-Putin contact over the past year, meaning a presidential-level meeting may not require a deal to be finalized first — Trump has met Putin directly before (Anchorage, Aug 2025) even mid-negotiation. Controlled by: pace of the Witkoff/Kushner-led ceasefire/security-guarantee talks, now centered on winter-energy-infrastructure ceasefire proposals.

5. **Russia-US bilateral relationship status, which affects Kremlin incentive to commit Putin's travel.** Peskov on Sept 27 (Sputnik) candidly noted 
Russia-US Relations Still Not in Best Shape... "Nevertheless, bilateral relations are still, to put it mildly, not in the best shape," Peskov said
, even while confirming APEC as an opportunity. This tempers optimism: cordial statements about a possible APEC encounter coexist with acknowledged strained ties, which was the same dynamic that preceded the abrupt cancellation of the planned Budapest summit (late Oct 2025, in prior reports).

**Sequence required for a "Yes" resolution:** (a) Putin's domestic situation must not prevent his travel decision (his own stated conditionality); (b) Chinese organizers must finalize a program slot — bilateral or trilateral — for Putin and Trump, which Ushakov said as of Oct 6 had not yet been "practically elaborated"; (c) no last-minute cancellation (as happened with Budapest) driven by a stalled Ukraine deal or a Rubio/Lavrov-style breakdown; (d) both leaders physically present in Shenzhen Nov 18-19 and occupying the same space, even briefly, satisfying the fine print's "see and hear each other" test — a low bar typically met automatically when both leaders attend the same summit, as happened in 2017-2019.

BOTTOM LINE: No Trump-Putin meeting is confirmed or on a public schedule as of Oct 9, 2026; the active diplomatic track is envoy-level (Witkoff/Kushner), not presidential. However, APEC Shenzhen (Nov 18-19) is a concrete, dated window inside the resolution period at which both leaders have independently signaled intent to attend, and both governments have acknowledged discussing a possible bilateral/trilateral encounter there — though as of Oct 6 no logistics had been worked out and Putin's attendance remains explicitly conditional on Russia's domestic situation.

NOT FOUND: Any White House statement committing to a specific Trump-Putin bilateral format at APEC; a finalized APEC program/schedule naming a Trump-Putin session; any statement from either side definitively ruling out a meeting before Dec 1; confirmation of the Witkoff-Kushner Moscow trip's final date or outcome.

**Prediction markets (Polymarket) — most directly relevant, dollar-weighted:**
- [2026-10-09] Polymarket's "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?" market (opened May 26, 2026, $1.7M+ volume) currently prices 
China at 70%, "No meeting by December 31" at 27%, United States at 2.4%, Switzerland under 1%
. A more recent snapshot of the same market shows 
China leading at 76%, "No meeting by December 31" at 21%, United States at 3.1%
, suggesting the "no meeting" probability has been drifting down slightly (27%→21%) as APEC approaches. https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678
- Market commentary attributes the China-heavy pricing to 
the APEC summit scheduled for Shenzhen on November 18-19, with Putin confirmed to attend and Trump expected, creating a concrete window for bilateral or trilateral talks alongside Xi Jinping
. https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678
- The same listing notes the "no meeting" share reflects 
recent White House comments ruling out an immediate in-person summit, ongoing phone diplomacy without firm dates, and uncertainty over Putin's G20 attendance in Miami
, indicating the question's own listed December 1 APEC date is the market's central scenario but not a lock.
- A separate, simpler "Trump meets with Putin by December 31?" Polymarket contract is trading around 71% Yes, and a related "Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?" contract around 74% Yes (both referenced as "related markets" on the China/no-meeting listing, dated 2026-10). https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678
- [2026-09-25] A newer Polymarket market, "Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?", launched Sep 25, 2026, is priced at 
72% for "Yes," having launched on Sep 25, 2026
, with traders citing 
recent diplomatic engagement between the three leaders, including bilateral summits in Beijing and Washington in 2026, and meetings between Xi and Putin in Beijing and at the SCO gathering in Bishkek
, plus 
Kremlin statements highlighting the possibility of a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen
. https://polymarket.com/event/trump-putin-and-xi-seen-together-before-2027

**Kalshi:**
- Kalshi runs a recurring "Who will Trump meet with" series that has repeatedly listed Vladimir Putin as a named contract across different months in 2025-2026 (e.g., "Who will Trump meet with in 2026?" and monthly variants), but no single aggregated current percentage for a Dec 1, 2026 cutoff was surfaced in available results; a related 2026 instance ("Who will Donald Trump meet this year?") showed 
Vladimir Putin priced around 32%
 as of roughly two months before this report (age ~61 days), i.e., circa August 2026, before the current October diplomatic developments. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpmeeting/who-will-trump-meet-this-year/kxtrumpmeeting-27jan01

**Track record / caveats on these markets:**
- These are the same types of markets that in 2025 repeatedly swung sharply on Kremlin/White House statements — e.g., a Polymarket "Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?" contract resolved Yes after the actual August 15, 2025 Alaska summit, while an October 2025 Budapest-summit plan was abandoned after being announced, per ABC News reporting that 
there are no plans for President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet "in the immediate future," a White House official said on Tuesday -- calling off a summit that was expected in Hungary
. This history shows these markets/trackers have previously been whipsawed by abrupt last-minute cancellations, so current high "China/APEC" pricing should be read as a base-rate estimate, not a certainty.
- Markets consistently price the "no meeting" / "never happens" outcome in the 20-30% range as of early-to-mid October 2026, down from 100% "no meeting" priced in a prior narrower-window market that expired June 30, 2026 without a meeting (
"No meeting by June 30" 100.0%
), showing sentiment has shifted meaningfully toward "yes" as the APEC summit date nears.

**Metaculus:** No current Metaculus community-prediction percentage specific to this question (post_id 45876 / question_id 46057) was found in search results; only indirectly related historical Metaculus questions on the broader Russia-Ukraine war state surfaced.

BOTTOM LINE: Prediction markets (chiefly Polymarket, with over $1.7M traded on the most relevant contract) currently assign roughly 70-80% probability that Trump and Putin will meet again in 2026, with China/APEC-Shenzhen (Nov 18-19) seen as the dominant likely venue, and the "no meeting by year-end" outcome priced around 20-27% as of early-to-mid October 2026; these odds have moved toward "yes" over the past several months but carry a well-documented history of volatility given past last-minute summit cancellations.

NOT FOUND: A dedicated, current Metaculus community-prediction percentage for this specific question (post 45876); a precise, dated Kalshi contract percentage for a Trump-Putin meeting specifically before December 1, 2026 (only older ~32% data point from ~August 2026 and general market-series listings were found); any formal polling of foreign-policy experts/analysts giving numeric probabilities (only qualitative commentary, e.g., Carnegie's Andrew Weiss, was found, without a probability estimate).

YES means: Trump and Putin are confirmed to occupy the same physical space (see, hear each other directly) at least once between October 9, 2026 and December 1, 2026 — most plausibly as a bilateral pull-aside or trilateral encounter on the sidelines of APEC China 2026 in Shenzhen (Nov 18–19).

- [2026-10-02] Putin personally said he "welcomed, in general, the idea of holding a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the APEC summit" — a direct, on-the-record statement of intent from Putin himself, not just an aide's speculation. https://sputnikglobe.com/20261002/china-welcomes-russias-intention-to-attend-apec-summit---foreign-ministry-1124826433.html
- [2026-10-03] China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun explicitly confirmed Beijing "welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin's attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen this November," responding directly to a question about whether a Putin-Xi sideline meeting would occur. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-10-03/China-welcomes-Putin-s-attendance-at-APEC-meeting-in-Shenzhen-1QWEZHw6xkQ/p.html
- [2026-10-02] The Russian Foreign Ministry told Sputnik it "welcomes President Putin's participation in the informal meeting of APEC leaders, which will be held in Shenzhen this November," and did not rule out — while declining to confirm — a possible trilateral with the US and Chinese leaders. https://sputnikglobe.com/20261002/china-welcomes-russias-intention-to-attend-apec-summit---foreign-ministry-1124826433.html
- [2026-09-24] Trump confirmed on social media his own plan to attend APEC Shenzhen Nov 18–19, meaning both leaders now have affirmative, overlapping travel commitments to the same venue on the same dates — the strongest structural precondition for a meeting (per the colleague reports above).
- Historical mechanism/base rate: at every APEC or G20 summit from 2017–2019 where Trump and Putin were both present, an in-person encounter occurred even when a "formal" bilateral was explicitly ruled out beforehand — e.g., at APEC Da Nang 2017, despite the White House announcing no formal sitdown, the two leaders still shook hands and talked during the gala/family-photo session, with Peskov predicting "their paths will cross one way or another," which came true within hours. https://amp.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-putin-meeting-1.4396641
- [2025-12-02] and [2026-01-22]: the Witkoff/Kushner channel to the Kremlin is already well-established and recurring (Witkoff/Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin on Dec 2, 2025, and again Jan 22, 2026 for "overnight Ukraine peace talks"), demonstrating an active, functioning US-Russia negotiating track that could produce enough substantive progress to justify elevating contact to the presidential level before APEC. https://www.euronews.com/embed/2864454
- [2026-10-09] The imminent Witkoff/Kushner Moscow trip (reported by Axios, planned for later this month, before the midterms) is explicitly aimed at a "breakthrough" that could generate the diplomatic momentum and agenda substance needed to justify a leader-level meeting at APEC, continuing the same envoy-to-summit pipeline that preceded the August 2025 Anchorage summit.
- Mechanism for "spontaneous" YES even absent a deal: as in 2017 Da Nang, a formal bilateral is not required for the question to resolve Yes — the fine print only requires physical co-presence with mutual sight/sound, a bar met by APEC's gala dinners, family photos, and leaders' retreats, which both men are now independently scheduled to attend.

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest Yes case rests on freshly confirmed facts from the past week — Putin's own public openness (Oct 2) to a trilateral at APEC and China's official welcome (Oct 3) of his attendance — combined with Trump's already-confirmed APEC travel plans and the historical pattern (2017–2019) that co-attendance at a major summit has reliably produced at least an informal Trump-Putin encounter even when a formal meeting was explicitly denied beforehand.

NOT FOUND: An official White House or Kremlin confirmation that a bilateral/trilateral meeting agenda has been locked in for APEC Shenzhen; confirmation that Putin's travel plans (contingent, per his own caveat, on "the situation in Russia") remain firm closer to Nov 18–19; any statement ruling in (rather than just not ruling out) Trump-Putin contact at APEC from a named senior US official post-Oct 8.

YES means: Trump and Putin physically occupy the same space (seeing/hearing each other directly) at least once between 2026-10-09 and 2026-12-01 — most plausibly as a bilateral, trilateral, or summit-sideline encounter at APEC China 2026 (Shenzhen, Nov 18–19), since no dedicated bilateral summit is currently scheduled.

- [2025-10-21] The last time a Trump-Putin meeting was actively being arranged (Budapest), it collapsed days before the window even opened: a White House official said 
"There are no plans for President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin to meet 'in the immediate future'"
 and the Kremlin added 
Moscow also denied that a meeting was imminent, saying that preparations "could take time," with Peskov noting "No precise timeframe was initially set here... Preparation is needed, serious preparation."
 This precedent shows announced Trump-Putin summits have a recent track record of unraveling at the last stage over substance (territorial/NATO conditions), not logistics — the same substantive gap (Ukraine ceasefire terms) remains unresolved as of Oct 9.
- [2026-10-09] As of the most current envoy-track reporting, the active diplomatic channel is explicitly sub-presidential: Witkoff and Kushner are shuttling to Miami and potentially Moscow, with no Trump-Putin encounter attached to that itinerary, and Rubio has already framed the war as a "strategic stalemate" — language that historically precedes delay, not an imminent leaders' summit.
- [2026-09-21/23] Even the APEC "natural opportunity" is not a lock: multiple outlets citing Bloomberg report 
"the possibility of Putin attending the G20 summit as extremely remote," with Putin intending "to participate in APEC for the first time since 2017"
 — but Putin's APEC plan was sourced to unnamed Kremlin-adjacent people, not an official confirmation, and crucially 
"the White House has not confirmed whether Trump will attend the Shenzhen gathering"
 as of that report.
- [2026-10-07] The Kremlin's own spokesman as recently as Oct 7 described any Trump-Putin-Xi encounter as unresolved: Ushakov said Putin's bilateral with Xi is locked in, but 
Putin has confirmed his APEC presence but Trump "no ha confirmado aún su presencia" in Shenzhen, so the possibility of a tripartite meeting "depende" on that
 — i.e., the single scheduled venue capable of producing a YES still lacks a confirmed U.S. presidential travel commitment less than six weeks out.
- [2026-10-06] Ukrainian outlet UNN's reporting (already flagged in prior research) that "no one has yet worked out the practical details" of a Putin-Trump-Xi encounter at APEC underscores that even if both leaders attend, a structured bilateral/trilateral sit-down is not organizationally locked in — contact at a multilateral summit does not automatically guarantee a direct, un-intermediated meeting as defined in the fine print (seeing/hearing each other, not merely co-attendance).
- [2026-10-08] Putin's travel pattern this month (meeting Iran's Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan, engaging CIS summit) shows continued reliance on non-Western, non-ICC-member venues for face time, consistent with his historical avoidance of exposure in venues with Western-aligned security/legal risk; China is a non-ICC state so this is not a barrier for Shenzhen specifically, but it illustrates Putin's broader caution before committing to high-profile co-attendance with Trump.
- [2026-10-09] Secondary/unofficial claims of Putin's "immediate" agreement to a Xi-brokered trilateral (reported via a former DPR adviser, dated Sept 29) remain unconfirmed by Kremlin or White House and explicitly note Trump "has yet to commit" — a single unofficial source is weak evidence for a firm YES-producing event.
- [Historical baseline] Unlike 2017–2019, when every instance of co-attendance at a G20/APEC summit reliably produced a meeting, the current environment differs materially: the war is ongoing and unresolved, both sides have just walked back a scheduled bilateral (Budapest) over substantive disagreement, and Putin is reportedly skipping Trump's own hosted summit (G20 Miami, Dec 14-15) — behavior suggesting Putin may be managing optics/avoiding a second "failed-outcome" encounter with Trump absent a deal, which could extend to limiting direct exposure even at APEC if talks stall further by November.

BOTTOM LINE: The only concrete scheduled window within the resolution period (APEC Shenzhen, Nov 18–19) still has an unconfirmed Trump travel commitment and an unresolved trilateral/bilateral meeting mechanism as of the latest (Oct 7-9) Kremlin and diplomatic reporting, while the most recent precedent (Budapest, Oct 2025) shows a nearly-finalized Trump-Putin summit can still collapse over substance within days — both factors support a real, non-trivial path to NO despite elevated market pricing toward YES.

NOT FOUND: No White House statement (post-Oct 8) confirming Trump will personally attend APEC Shenzhen; no Kremlin statement finalizing Putin's in-person APEC attendance (only Kremlin-sourced/Bloomberg reporting of intent); no agreed agenda, date, or venue for a dedicated Trump-Putin bilateral before Dec 1, 2026.

12 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-09] Witkoff and Kushner to Meet Putin in Moscow Before US Midterms
РЕН ТВ — https://ren.tv/news/v-mire/1465445-axios-uitkoff-i-kushner-mogut-vstretitsia-s-putinym-v-oktiabre
  - According to a report by Axios published on October 9, 2026, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow later this month.
  - The meeting is scheduled for October 2026, prior to the U.S. midterm congressional elections in November.
  - The objective of the proposed meeting is to achieve a breakthrough in negotiations before the elections.
  - Axios cited unnamed sources for this information.
  - Additionally, on October 8, 2026, it was reported that Witkoff and Kushner planned to meet with a Ukrainian delegation in Miami on October 9, 2026, to discuss new ideas regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

[2026-10-09] Trump's Team Prepares for Potential Moscow Talks with Putin on Ukraine Peace
Хартия 97 — https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/10/9/701238/
  - According to Axios, US President Donald Trump's team, specifically Special Representative Steve Witkoff and President's son-in-law Jared Kushner, is preparing for a potential visit to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding peace in Ukraine.
  - This follows a scheduled meeting in Miami on Friday, October 9, 2026, where Witkoff and Kushner will meet with Ukrainian and European delegations to present 'new ideas and proposals' aimed at breaking the deadlock in the war.
  - The Trump administration hopes to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough before the US midterm elections and the onset of winter in Ukraine.
  - One specific goal is a partial ceasefire to halt attacks on energy and grain infrastructure.
  - While Ukraine has expressed readiness for such a step, Russia has shown little desire to agree.
  - A US source stated, 'All of them are nervous about the coming winter.
  - The winter will be hard if the war does not stop.' During a meeting on Thursday, October 8, 2026, Witkoff and Kushner presented the latest US proposal to President Trump.
  - The upcoming negotiations in Miami are expected to last two days and will cover security guarantees for Ukraine and a post-war prosperity plan.
  - A Ukrainian official noted that despite skepticism in Kyiv, the US midterm elections and Russia's need to lift sanctions might compel Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
  - Axios summarized that Witkoff and Kushner could travel to Moscow by the end of October for further negotiations.

[2026-10-08] Putin and Pezeshkian Meet in Turkmenistan Amidst Iran-US Conflict Talks
infobae — https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/10/08/putin-asegura-ante-pezeshkian-que-iran-realiza-intentos-reales-de-terminar-el-conflicto/
  - On Thursday, October 8, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian in Avaza, Turkmenistan, asserting that Iran is making 'real attempts' to end the conflict with the United States.
  - Putin stated that Tehran has 'presented a new proposal for the settlement of the situation, by peaceful means,' and Russia is 'willing to do everything in its power to help settle this situation.' During the meeting, Putin asked Pezeshkian to convey his best wishes to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Jamenei, whom the article identifies as the son of the previous leader, Ali Jamenei, who was killed in a bombing on February 28, the first day of the US and Israel war against Iran.
  - Putin also characterized the assassination of Iran's national security chief, Ali Lariyani, in March 2026, as a 'terrible mistake.' Regarding bilateral relations, Putin highlighted that trade between Russia and Iran increased by 21% in 2025 despite Western sanctions, a trend continuing in the first seven months of 2026.
  - Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he will not launch attacks on Iran before the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, while insisting that Iran 'will not have a nuclear weapon.' The meeting was originally scheduled for Friday following the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) meeting and the Caspian Ecological Summit but was brought forward.
  - Putin and Pezeshkian previously met over a month ago in Kyrgyzstan, where Shanghai Cooperation Organization members advocated for a peaceful resolution.

[2026-10-08] Putin and Pezeshkian Reaffirm Strategic Alliance Against the West
SAPO — https://sapo.pt/artigo/moscovo-e-teerao-reafirmam-a-uniao-contra-o-ocidente-6ac817989b5d020a451d0617
  - On Thursday, October 8, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan ahead of a regional summit, reaffirming their strategic alliance against the West.
  - According to Russian news agencies, Putin thanked Iran for its position on the Middle East conflict and praised the 'strategic relationship' between Moscow and Tehran.
  - Putin stated that Russia is ready to do everything possible to help resolve the situation, noting that Iran is making 'genuine efforts' to end the conflict, which began on February 28 with an Israeli-American offensive against the Islamic Republic.
  - The Kremlin had originally scheduled the meeting for Friday following the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit, but the leaders decided to meet early.
  - The article notes that Kyiv and the West have accused Iran of providing Russia with technology to produce Shahed drones and short-range missiles, while Moscow is attributed with sharing data on US targets in the Middle East.
  - Putin highlighted that despite Western sanctions, trade between Russia and Iran increased by 21% in 2025, a trend that continued in the first seven months of 2026.
  - During the meeting, Putin asked Pezeshkian to convey greetings to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whom the article identifies as the son of the former guide, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a bombing in Tehran on the first day of the war.
  - Putin has repeatedly condemned the assassination of Ali Khamenei as a 'terrible mistake' and also described the late former National Security Advisor, Ali Larijani, as someone capable of reaching agreements.
  - The leaders previously met in September at a summit in Kyrgyzstan and in December 2025 in Turkmenistan.
  - Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that he would not launch attacks on Iran before the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 3, while maintaining 'productive' conversations with Tehran.

[2026-10-08] Putin and Pezeshkian Meet in Turkmenistan to Discuss Middle East War and Strengthen Ties
SAPO — https://sapo.pt/artigo/putin-oferece-apoio-a-presidente-iraniano-para-fim-da-guerra-6ac81aecc1802de9f37f57a7
  - On Thursday, October 8, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan, ahead of a regional summit, to reaffirm Moscow's support for ending the ongoing war in the Middle East.
  - The conflict, described by Putin as having started on February 28 with an Israeli-American offensive against the Islamic Republic, has seen Iran making 'genuine efforts' to resolve the situation, according to Putin.
  - The meeting, originally scheduled for Friday after the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit, was brought forward.
  - Putin praised the positive development in Russia-Iran relations, which have strengthened since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
  - He noted that despite Western sanctions, trade between the two nations increased by 21% in 2025 and remained on an upward trend in the first seven months of 2026.
  - Putin also conveyed greetings to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former leader Ali Khamenei, who was reportedly killed in a bombing in Tehran on the first day of the war.
  - Putin has previously condemned Ali Khamenei's death as a 'terrible mistake.' Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that the US would not launch attacks on Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, and emphasized that Iran 'will not have nuclear weapons.'.

[2026-10-06] Trump to Meet Putin Soon Over Russian Disease Outbreak
Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası — https://www.dirilispostasi.com/trump-putin-ile-cok-yakinda-gorusecegim
  - On October 6, 2026, US President Donald Trump stated he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin 'very soon' regarding a disease outbreak in Russia.
  - Trump, speaking to reporters after an event in Baltimore, confirmed, 'We have a scheduled phone call.
  - We will meet very soon.' He also indicated that US intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the situation and that a report on the matter will likely be released tomorrow.
  - The potential meeting follows reports from October 2 regarding a suspected 'particularly dangerous infection' in the Irkutsk region of Russia.
  - According to Irkutsk Regional Governor Igor Kobzev, an emergency health and epidemic control commission meeting was held after a person in the region was suspected of having the infection.
  - Additionally, social media channels reported the death of a worker at an institute fighting the plague due to 'pneumonic plague', though Rospotrebnadzor stated that a worker at the Irkutsk Plague Control Institute in Siberia and the Far East was diagnosed with 'pneumonia of unknown origin' and special measures were implemented.

[2026-09-24] US Invites Putin to December G20 Meeting in Miami, Potential Trump Summit
Economic Times — https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/us-invites-putin-to-december-g20-meeting-possible-trump-summit/articleshow/134449709.cms
  - On September 24, 2026, the United States extended an invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the December G20 meeting in Miami, Florida, where he could hold a summit with US President Donald Trump.
  - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the announcement after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the UN General Assembly, stating that 'We've invited President Putin to the G20.
  - We think it's an opportunity for him to engage not just with the president but with other world leaders.
  - We hope that's an invitation he'll accept.' The Kremlin, via spokesman Dmitry Peskov, expressed that Russia was 'grateful and appreciative for this invitation' and stated they would make a decision through diplomatic channels.
  - This potential meeting marks the first time Putin could visit the lower 48 states since before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, though he met Trump in Anchorage, Alaska in August 2025.
  - Additionally, Rubio noted that President Trump could potentially meet with China's President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen.

[2026-09-23] US Secretary Rubio Hints at Putin-Trump Meeting in Miami This December
РЕН ТВ — https://ren.tv/news/politika/1460986-rubio-dopustil-vstrechu-putina-i-trampa-v-maiami-v-dekabre
  - On September 23, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump could meet in December in Miami during the G20 summit, which is scheduled to take place in the United States from December 14 to 15.
  - According to Rubio, Putin has been invited to the summit, and if he accepts, the two leaders could hold a personal meeting.
  - Rubio stated, 'If another opportunity for their meeting appears and it has a specific goal, that would be good.
  - They have already spoken on the phone multiple times,' as reported by RIA Novosti.
  - However, the day before, President Trump expressed doubt that Putin would attend the G20 summit, despite Trump also allowing for the possibility of a new meeting.

[2026-09-22] Putin Likely to Skip G20 in Florida, May Attend APEC in China
Украинская сеть новостей — https://ua.korrespondent.net/world/4913972-putin-mozhe-unyknuty-G20-de-bude-zelenskyi-zmi
  - According to Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to attend the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, on November 18-19, 2026, but his participation in the G20 summit in Florida, USA, scheduled for December 14-15, 2026, is considered 'very low' probability.
  - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on September 21, 2026, his readiness to meet Putin at the G20 if the Russian leader attends.
  - Bloomberg reports that Russian officials are discussing a potential trilateral meeting involving Putin, US President Donald Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit, contingent on Trump's participation.
  - Kremlin sources reportedly do not expect significant progress in peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine before the December G20 meeting and are increasingly disillusioned with US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
  - Putin's travel is further complicated by international sanctions, security concerns, and a 2023 International Criminal Court arrest warrant regarding the alleged unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children.
  - The Kremlin has not officially confirmed Putin's attendance at either summit; Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did not respond to Bloomberg's inquiry.
  - Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy expressed hope for initial negotiation results by the end of September 2026, with Ukrainian and American teams discussing a potential trilateral meeting.

[2026-09-22] Trump Says Meeting with Putin Likely Soon, but Unlikely at Miami G20
TASS — https://tass.com/world/2191315
  - US President Donald Trump stated on September 22, 2026, that he and Russian leader Vladimir Putin may hold another face-to-face meeting soon, though it is unlikely to occur at the upcoming G20 summit in Doral near Miami, Florida.
  - Trump made these remarks to reporters at the start of a meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on the sidelines of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York.
  - When asked about the prospects for a trilateral meeting involving Zelensky at the summit, Trump replied, 'Well, I don't know.
  - I know that he [Putin] will meet, and we've had a meeting already in Alaska.
  - I think he'd do another one.
  - I don't know about Miami.' The G20 summit is scheduled to take place on December 14-15, 2026.

[2026-09-12] Kremlin Declares Putin-Zelenskyy Meeting at G20 'Impossible' Unless in Moscow
صحيفة الشرق الأوسط — https://aawsat.com/node/5317567
  - On Saturday, September 12, 2026, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the French Press Agency in New Delhi that a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Miami is 'impossible'.
  - Peskov reiterated Moscow's long-standing position that any such meeting can only take place in the Russian capital, stating, 'There is readiness to hold it in Moscow.' He also noted that it remains undecided whether Putin will attend the December summit in Miami, with Kremlin foreign affairs advisor Yuri Ushakov confirming that Putin's attendance 'was not even discussed' in Moscow.
  - This stance follows an earlier proposal by President Zelenskyy to meet Putin in Miami if the Russian leader attends, which was previously welcomed by US President Donald Trump as 'highly beneficial' in April 2026.

[2026-05-20] Putin and Trump May Meet at APEC Summit in China in November 2026
WEB.DE — https://web.de/magazine/politik/kreml-nennt-termin-moegliches-treffen-putin-trump-42291070
  - Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump may meet in November 2026 in Shenzhen, China, during the APEC summit, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskow.
  - Peskow told the Interfax news agency in Beijing that 'theoretically, yes.
  - Theoretically, meetings with all summit participants are possible' at the event.
  - Putin confirmed his attendance at the APEC summit in Shenzhen during a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
  - It remains unclear whether Trump will attend the APEC summit, though Trump recently visited Xi in Beijing where they agreed to support each other as hosts for future summits.
  - Trump is scheduled to host the G20 summit in December, to which Xi and Putin are invited, though it is unclear if Putin will travel to the USA.
  - The two leaders last met in August 2025 in the USA and have held multiple phone calls regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the US acting as a mediator.
  - Peskow stated regarding the potential meeting in China: 'These summits are organized for this purpose.'.

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?" → Yes: 0.80, Volume: $159.8K — 2026 only, not before Dec 1 2026 specifically though close

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE LOOKUP — page fetched is NOT the source the criteria name. Do NOT anchor on it; treat as weak background at most:
  Current state: The page lists both Vladimir Putin (Russia, President) and Donald Trump (United States, President) as possible participating leaders at the APEC China 2026 summit scheduled for November 18-19, 2026 in Shenzhen, which is before the December 1, 2026 deadline. However, the text does not confirm an actual in-person meeting between the two has occurred.
  Last updated: September 26, 2026 (based on cited references) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: This is a Wikipedia page about the APEC China 2026 summit generally, not a direct source confirming whether Trump and Putin have met or will meet in person. It only shows both are listed as 'possible participating leaders,' which is speculative/planned attendance, not confirmation of an actual meeting. The summit date (Nov 18-19, 2026) falls before the Dec 1, 2026 deadline, but attendance alone does not confirm they would interact in person as defined by the fine print.
  Fetched: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_China_2026 (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2025 Russia–United States summit:
  The 2025 Russia–United States Summit was a summit meeting between United States president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin. It was held on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. The main topic of discussion was the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. The summit ended without an agreement being announced, although Trump later intimated that in his view the onus was now on Ukraine to cede territory in order to end the war.

  APEC China 2026:
  The APEC China 2026 will be a year-long hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings, which will conclude with the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in November 2026. It will be the third time China hosted the summit, having previously hosted in 2001 and 2014.

  2025 Russia–United States summit in Hungary:
  The 2025 Budapest summit was a proposed summit between United States president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin to take place in Budapest, Hungary. Trump had announced on October 16, 2025, that it would be held within two weeks, with the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war as the main topic of discussion. He announced on October 22 that he had cancelled the meeting over Russia's refusal to back down from its maximalist claims on Ukraine.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?" → Yes: 0.80, Volume: $159.8K — 2026 only, not before Dec 1 2026 specifically though close

You are an elite superforecaster. Read ALL the research below — the raw tool outputs, the news bundle and the six research reports — and give one calibrated probability for this Metaculus binary question.

## Question
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person before December 1, 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
During his time as president of the United States, Donald Trump has met with Vladimir Putin, the president of the Russian Federation, seven times: 

| Date                         | Location                                                                         |
| ---------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| July 7, 2017                 | Hamburg, Germany — G20 summit formal bilateral meeting                           |
| July 7, 2017                 | Hamburg, Germany — G20 leaders’ dinner conversation                              |
| November 10–11, 2017         | Da Nang, Vietnam — APEC summit sidelines                                         |
| July 16, 2018                | Helsinki, Finland — U.S.-Russia summit                                           |
| November 30–December 1, 2018 | Buenos Aires, Argentina — G20 summit / informal contact after canceled bilateral |
| June 28, 2019                | Osaka, Japan — G20 summit bilateral meeting                                      |
| August 15, 2025              | Anchorage, Alaska, United States — Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson summit        |

Additionally, both men have invitations to the [APEC China 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_China_2026) summit, which is scheduled for November 18-19, 2026. 

`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 45876, "question_id": 46057}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person before December 1, 2026.

## Fine Print
"Meet in person" is defined as Trump and Putin occupying the same physical space closely enough so that they can see and hear each other through direct un-intermediated exchange of photons and sound waves.

***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45876) which opened on 2026-10-02 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE LOOKUP — page fetched is NOT the source the criteria name. Do NOT anchor on it; treat as weak background at most:
  Current state: The page lists both Vladimir Putin (Russia, President) and Donald Trump (United States, President) as possible participating leaders at the APEC China 2026 summit scheduled for November 18-19, 2026 in Shenzhen, which is before the December 1, 2026 deadline. However, the text does not confirm an actual in-person meeting between the two has occurred.
  Last updated: September 26, 2026 (based on cited references) | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: False
  Note: This is a Wikipedia page about the APEC China 2026 summit generally, not a direct source confirming whether Trump and Putin have met or will meet in person. It only shows both are listed as 'possible participating leaders,' which is speculative/planned attendance, not confirmation of an actual meeting. The summit date (Nov 18-19, 2026) falls before the Dec 1, 2026 deadline, but attendance alone does not confirm they would interact in person as defined by the fine print.
  Fetched: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_China_2026 (HTTP 200)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2025 Russia–United States summit:
  The 2025 Russia–United States Summit was a summit meeting between United States president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin. It was held on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. The main topic of discussion was the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. The summit ended without an agreement being announced, although Trump later intimated that in his view the onus was now on Ukraine to cede territory in order to end the war.

  APEC China 2026:
  The APEC China 2026 will be a year-long hosting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings, which will conclude with the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in November 2026. It will be the third time China hosted the summit, having previously hosted in 2001 and 2014.

  2025 Russia–United States summit in Hungary:
  The 2025 Budapest summit was a proposed summit between United States president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin to take place in Budapest, Hungary. Trump had announced on October 16, 2025, that it would be held within two weeks, with the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war as the main topic of discussion. He announced on October 22 that he had cancelled the meeting over Russia's refusal to back down from its maximalist claims on Ukraine.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?" → Yes: 0.80, Volume: $159.8K — 2026 only, not before Dec 1 2026 specifically though close

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-10-09; forecasting closes 2026-10-09; resolves 2026-12-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
12 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-10-09] Witkoff and Kushner to Meet Putin in Moscow Before US Midterms
РЕН ТВ — https://ren.tv/news/v-mire/1465445-axios-uitkoff-i-kushner-mogut-vstretitsia-s-putinym-v-oktiabre
  - According to a report by Axios published on October 9, 2026, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner may meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow later this month.
  - The meeting is scheduled for October 2026, prior to the U.S. midterm congressional elections in November.
  - The objective of the proposed meeting is to achieve a breakthrough in negotiations before the elections.
  - Axios cited unnamed sources for this information.
  - Additionally, on October 8, 2026, it was reported that Witkoff and Kushner planned to meet with a Ukrainian delegation in Miami on October 9, 2026, to discuss new ideas regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

[2026-10-09] Trump's Team Prepares for Potential Moscow Talks with Putin on Ukraine Peace
Хартия 97 — https://charter97.org/ru/news/2026/10/9/701238/
  - According to Axios, US President Donald Trump's team, specifically Special Representative Steve Witkoff and President's son-in-law Jared Kushner, is preparing for a potential visit to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding peace in Ukraine.
  - This follows a scheduled meeting in Miami on Friday, October 9, 2026, where Witkoff and Kushner will meet with Ukrainian and European delegations to present 'new ideas and proposals' aimed at breaking the deadlock in the war.
  - The Trump administration hopes to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough before the US midterm elections and the onset of winter in Ukraine.
  - One specific goal is a partial ceasefire to halt attacks on energy and grain infrastructure.
  - While Ukraine has expressed readiness for such a step, Russia has shown little desire to agree.
  - A US source stated, 'All of them are nervous about the coming winter.
  - The winter will be hard if the war does not stop.' During a meeting on Thursday, October 8, 2026, Witkoff and Kushner presented the latest US proposal to President Trump.
  - The upcoming negotiations in Miami are expected to last two days and will cover security guarantees for Ukraine and a post-war prosperity plan.
  - A Ukrainian official noted that despite skepticism in Kyiv, the US midterm elections and Russia's need to lift sanctions might compel Putin to agree to a ceasefire.
  - Axios summarized that Witkoff and Kushner could travel to Moscow by the end of October for further negotiations.

[2026-10-08] Putin and Pezeshkian Meet in Turkmenistan Amidst Iran-US Conflict Talks
infobae — https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/10/08/putin-asegura-ante-pezeshkian-que-iran-realiza-intentos-reales-de-terminar-el-conflicto/
  - On Thursday, October 8, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian in Avaza, Turkmenistan, asserting that Iran is making 'real attempts' to end the conflict with the United States.
  - Putin stated that Tehran has 'presented a new proposal for the settlement of the situation, by peaceful means,' and Russia is 'willing to do everything in its power to help settle this situation.' During the meeting, Putin asked Pezeshkian to convey his best wishes to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Jamenei, whom the article identifies as the son of the previous leader, Ali Jamenei, who was killed in a bombing on February 28, the first day of the US and Israel war against Iran.
  - Putin also characterized the assassination of Iran's national security chief, Ali Lariyani, in March 2026, as a 'terrible mistake.' Regarding bilateral relations, Putin highlighted that trade between Russia and Iran increased by 21% in 2025 despite Western sanctions, a trend continuing in the first seven months of 2026.
  - Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he will not launch attacks on Iran before the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, while insisting that Iran 'will not have a nuclear weapon.' The meeting was originally scheduled for Friday following the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) meeting and the Caspian Ecological Summit but was brought forward.
  - Putin and Pezeshkian previously met over a month ago in Kyrgyzstan, where Shanghai Cooperation Organization members advocated for a peaceful resolution.

[2026-10-08] Putin and Pezeshkian Reaffirm Strategic Alliance Against the West
SAPO — https://sapo.pt/artigo/moscovo-e-teerao-reafirmam-a-uniao-contra-o-ocidente-6ac817989b5d020a451d0617
  - On Thursday, October 8, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan ahead of a regional summit, reaffirming their strategic alliance against the West.
  - According to Russian news agencies, Putin thanked Iran for its position on the Middle East conflict and praised the 'strategic relationship' between Moscow and Tehran.
  - Putin stated that Russia is ready to do everything possible to help resolve the situation, noting that Iran is making 'genuine efforts' to end the conflict, which began on February 28 with an Israeli-American offensive against the Islamic Republic.
  - The Kremlin had originally scheduled the meeting for Friday following the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit, but the leaders decided to meet early.
  - The article notes that Kyiv and the West have accused Iran of providing Russia with technology to produce Shahed drones and short-range missiles, while Moscow is attributed with sharing data on US targets in the Middle East.
  - Putin highlighted that despite Western sanctions, trade between Russia and Iran increased by 21% in 2025, a trend that continued in the first seven months of 2026.
  - During the meeting, Putin asked Pezeshkian to convey greetings to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whom the article identifies as the son of the former guide, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a bombing in Tehran on the first day of the war.
  - Putin has repeatedly condemned the assassination of Ali Khamenei as a 'terrible mistake' and also described the late former National Security Advisor, Ali Larijani, as someone capable of reaching agreements.
  - The leaders previously met in September at a summit in Kyrgyzstan and in December 2025 in Turkmenistan.
  - Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that he would not launch attacks on Iran before the midterm congressional elections scheduled for November 3, while maintaining 'productive' conversations with Tehran.

[2026-10-08] Putin and Pezeshkian Meet in Turkmenistan to Discuss Middle East War and Strengthen Ties
SAPO — https://sapo.pt/artigo/putin-oferece-apoio-a-presidente-iraniano-para-fim-da-guerra-6ac81aecc1802de9f37f57a7
  - On Thursday, October 8, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan, ahead of a regional summit, to reaffirm Moscow's support for ending the ongoing war in the Middle East.
  - The conflict, described by Putin as having started on February 28 with an Israeli-American offensive against the Islamic Republic, has seen Iran making 'genuine efforts' to resolve the situation, according to Putin.
  - The meeting, originally scheduled for Friday after the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit, was brought forward.
  - Putin praised the positive development in Russia-Iran relations, which have strengthened since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
  - He noted that despite Western sanctions, trade between the two nations increased by 21% in 2025 and remained on an upward trend in the first seven months of 2026.
  - Putin also conveyed greetings to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former leader Ali Khamenei, who was reportedly killed in a bombing in Tehran on the first day of the war.
  - Putin has previously condemned Ali Khamenei's death as a 'terrible mistake.' Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated on Thursday that the US would not launch attacks on Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, and emphasized that Iran 'will not have nuclear weapons.'.

[2026-10-06] Trump to Meet Putin Soon Over Russian Disease Outbreak
Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası — https://www.dirilispostasi.com/trump-putin-ile-cok-yakinda-gorusecegim
  - On October 6, 2026, US President Donald Trump stated he will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin 'very soon' regarding a disease outbreak in Russia.
  - Trump, speaking to reporters after an event in Baltimore, confirmed, 'We have a scheduled phone call.
  - We will meet very soon.' He also indicated that US intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the situation and that a report on the matter will likely be released tomorrow.
  - The potential meeting follows reports from October 2 regarding a suspected 'particularly dangerous infection' in the Irkutsk region of Russia.
  - According to Irkutsk Regional Governor Igor Kobzev, an emergency health and epidemic control commission meeting was held after a person in the region was suspected of having the infection.
  - Additionally, social media channels reported the death of a worker at an institute fighting the plague due to 'pneumonic plague', though Rospotrebnadzor stated that a worker at the Irkutsk Plague Control Institute in Siberia and the Far East was diagnosed with 'pneumonia of unknown origin' and special measures were implemented.

[2026-09-24] US Invites Putin to December G20 Meeting in Miami, Potential Trump Summit
Economic Times — https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/us-invites-putin-to-december-g20-meeting-possible-trump-summit/articleshow/134449709.cms
  - On September 24, 2026, the United States extended an invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the December G20 meeting in Miami, Florida, where he could hold a summit with US President Donald Trump.
  - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the announcement after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the UN General Assembly, stating that 'We've invited President Putin to the G20.
  - We think it's an opportunity for him to engage not just with the president but with other world leaders.
  - We hope that's an invitation he'll accept.' The Kremlin, via spokesman Dmitry Peskov, expressed that Russia was 'grateful and appreciative for this invitation' and stated they would make a decision through diplomatic channels.
  - This potential meeting marks the first time Putin could visit the lower 48 states since before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, though he met Trump in Anchorage, Alaska in August 2025.
  - Additionally, Rubio noted that President Trump could potentially meet with China's President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen.

[2026-09-23] US Secretary Rubio Hints at Putin-Trump Meeting in Miami This December
РЕН ТВ — https://ren.tv/news/politika/1460986-rubio-dopustil-vstrechu-putina-i-trampa-v-maiami-v-dekabre
  - On September 23, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump could meet in December in Miami during the G20 summit, which is scheduled to take place in the United States from December 14 to 15.
  - According to Rubio, Putin has been invited to the summit, and if he accepts, the two leaders could hold a personal meeting.
  - Rubio stated, 'If another opportunity for their meeting appears and it has a specific goal, that would be good.
  - They have already spoken on the phone multiple times,' as reported by RIA Novosti.
  - However, the day before, President Trump expressed doubt that Putin would attend the G20 summit, despite Trump also allowing for the possibility of a new meeting.

[2026-09-22] Putin Likely to Skip G20 in Florida, May Attend APEC in China
Украинская сеть новостей — https://ua.korrespondent.net/world/4913972-putin-mozhe-unyknuty-G20-de-bude-zelenskyi-zmi
  - According to Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to attend the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, on November 18-19, 2026, but his participation in the G20 summit in Florida, USA, scheduled for December 14-15, 2026, is considered 'very low' probability.
  - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on September 21, 2026, his readiness to meet Putin at the G20 if the Russian leader attends.
  - Bloomberg reports that Russian officials are discussing a potential trilateral meeting involving Putin, US President Donald Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit, contingent on Trump's participation.
  - Kremlin sources reportedly do not expect significant progress in peace negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine before the December G20 meeting and are increasingly disillusioned with US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
  - Putin's travel is further complicated by international sanctions, security concerns, and a 2023 International Criminal Court arrest warrant regarding the alleged unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children.
  - The Kremlin has not officially confirmed Putin's attendance at either summit; Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did not respond to Bloomberg's inquiry.
  - Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy expressed hope for initial negotiation results by the end of September 2026, with Ukrainian and American teams discussing a potential trilateral meeting.

[2026-09-22] Trump Says Meeting with Putin Likely Soon, but Unlikely at Miami G20
TASS — https://tass.com/world/2191315
  - US President Donald Trump stated on September 22, 2026, that he and Russian leader Vladimir Putin may hold another face-to-face meeting soon, though it is unlikely to occur at the upcoming G20 summit in Doral near Miami, Florida.
  - Trump made these remarks to reporters at the start of a meeting with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on the sidelines of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly in New York.
  - When asked about the prospects for a trilateral meeting involving Zelensky at the summit, Trump replied, 'Well, I don't know.
  - I know that he [Putin] will meet, and we've had a meeting already in Alaska.
  - I think he'd do another one.
  - I don't know about Miami.' The G20 summit is scheduled to take place on December 14-15, 2026.

[2026-09-12] Kremlin Declares Putin-Zelenskyy Meeting at G20 'Impossible' Unless in Moscow
صحيفة الشرق الأوسط — https://aawsat.com/node/5317567
  - On Saturday, September 12, 2026, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the French Press Agency in New Delhi that a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Miami is 'impossible'.
  - Peskov reiterated Moscow's long-standing position that any such meeting can only take place in the Russian capital, stating, 'There is readiness to hold it in Moscow.' He also noted that it remains undecided whether Putin will attend the December summit in Miami, with Kremlin foreign affairs advisor Yuri Ushakov confirming that Putin's attendance 'was not even discussed' in Moscow.
  - This stance follows an earlier proposal by President Zelenskyy to meet Putin in Miami if the Russian leader attends, which was previously welcomed by US President Donald Trump as 'highly beneficial' in April 2026.

[2026-05-20] Putin and Trump May Meet at APEC Summit in China in November 2026
WEB.DE — https://web.de/magazine/politik/kreml-nennt-termin-moegliches-treffen-putin-trump-42291070
  - Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump may meet in November 2026 in Shenzhen, China, during the APEC summit, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskow.
  - Peskow told the Interfax news agency in Beijing that 'theoretically, yes.
  - Theoretically, meetings with all summit participants are possible' at the event.
  - Putin confirmed his attendance at the APEC summit in Shenzhen during a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
  - It remains unclear whether Trump will attend the APEC summit, though Trump recently visited Xi in Beijing where they agreed to support each other as hosts for future summits.
  - Trump is scheduled to host the G20 summit in December, to which Xi and Putin are invited, though it is unclear if Putin will travel to the USA.
  - The two leaders last met in August 2025 in the USA and have held multiple phone calls regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the US acting as a mediator.
  - Peskow stated regarding the potential meeting in China: 'These summits are organized for this purpose.'.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-10-08] Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Trump at the White House to present "new ideas and proposals" to end the Russia-Ukraine war, with 
Witkoff and Kushner might travel to Moscow later this month for more talks with Putin, a source with knowledge said
. This would be an envoy-level meeting with Putin, not Trump-Putin. (axios.com)

- [2026-10-09] Ukrainian and European delegations met Witkoff/Kushner in Miami to discuss a partial ceasefire and security guarantees; 
Witkoff and Kushner also plan to travel to Russia before the end of the month to discuss the "new ideas" with Russian leadership, according to Axios
. No Trump-Putin meeting is attached to this trip. (meduza.io)

- [2026-10-09] Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the war as a 
"strategic stalemate,"
 and 
the Kremlin also said there are no grounds for such a development at this time
 (referring to a peace breakthrough), signaling no imminent Trump-Putin summit is being announced alongside the envoy shuttle diplomacy. (meduza.io)

- [2026-09-24] At the conclusion of Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington, Xi said there would be two more opportunities to meet Trump this year — APEC in China and the G20 in Miami — and 
Trump confirmed in a subsequent post to social media that he planned to attend the APEC summit, which will be hosted in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19
. This is before the Dec 1 resolution deadline. (cnn.com)

- [2026-09-02] Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said on Russian state TV that the possibility of a Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral meeting at APEC 
"This issue was discussed, yes,"
 adding 
"And if it turns out, as has been said, then the three of them will be able to have a meeting."
 (scmp.com)

- [2026-09-01] Per an earlier Kremlin readout, 
Xi Jinping, as the host of the event, noted that Donald Trump and Putin—who has been invited—are expected to attend the summit, which, under favorable conditions, would allow for trilateral talks or a series of bilateral meetings
. (ua.news)

- [2026-10-06] Ukrainian outlet UNN reported that a Putin-Xi bilateral meeting is scheduled at APEC, but 
no one has yet worked out the practical details of a possible meeting between Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit
, indicating a Trump-Putin encounter at APEC is possible but not confirmed. (unn.ua)

- [2026-09-29] A former DPR adviser, Alexander Kazakov, claimed Xi proposed a trilateral Xi-Putin-Trump meeting at the SCO summit in Bishkek and that 
Putin immediately agreed to the proposal, while Trump has yet to commit
 — this is a secondary/unofficial source, not confirmed by US or Kremlin officials directly. (voennoedelo.com)

- [2025-10-31] Context: the last previously-scheduled Trump-Putin bilateral summit (Budapest) was called off before the question's eligibility window opened, after 
Russia's Foreign Ministry reportedly sent a memo to Washington days later repeating its conditions that Ukraine cede territory, reduce its armed forces and vow never to join NATO… The summit was then canceled after a call between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio, who reportedly told Trump that Moscow was "showing no willingness to negotiate."
 No new Trump-Putin bilateral summit has been announced since. (themoscowtimes.com)

- [2026-11-18/19] APEC China 2026 summit in Shenzhen remains the key scheduled event before Dec 1 where both leaders are expected: 
Date: November 18 – 19, 2026… Venues: Main venue Shenzhen
. Both Trump and Putin have been invited and Trump has confirmed attendance; Putin's personal attendance (vs. sending a delegation) has not been finally confirmed in available sources.

BOTTOM LINE: As of October 9, 2026, no Trump-Putin in-person meeting is scheduled; the active diplomatic track involves envoys (Witkoff/Kushner) shuttling to Moscow and Miami, not the two presidents directly, and Washington/Kremlin officials describe the war as a "stalemate." The one concrete scheduled window before the December 1 deadline is the APEC summit in Shenzhen (Nov 18–19), where Russian officials have floated a possible Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral or bilateral sidebar, but as of the latest reports (Oct 6) "no one has yet worked out the practical details," and Trump's commitment to such a meeting is unconfirmed.

NOT FOUND: No official confirmation that Putin will personally attend APEC China 2026 (vs. sending a representative); no confirmed date/venue for a dedicated Trump-Putin bilateral summit after the Budapest cancellation; no White House or Kremlin statement (post-Oct 8) directly addressing a Trump-Putin in-person meeting plan before December 1, 2026.

### BASE RATE
**Historical base rate (reference class):** Trump and Putin have met in person seven times during Trump's presidencies (2017 Hamburg G20 x2, 2017 Da Nang APEC, 2018 Helsinki, 2018 Buenos Aires G20, 2019 Osaka G20, 2025 Anchorage). Six of these seven occurred on the sidelines of multilateral summits where both leaders were independently scheduled to attend (G20/APEC), and in every instance from 2017-2019 where both leaders attended the same summit, a bilateral or informal meeting occurred — i.e., co-attendance at a major multilateral summit has historically been an almost-certain predictor of an in-person meeting. The one in-presidency summit (Helsinki 2018) was a standalone bilateral meeting arranged specifically for that purpose.

**Relevant upcoming "natural" opportunity:** 
Recent diplomatic signals have positioned a possible trilateral or bilateral encounter on the sidelines of the November 2026 APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, as the leading scenario among traders, with Putin expected to attend the forum in person for the first time in nearly a decade while likely skipping the December G20 in Florida.
 This summit (Nov 18-19) falls within the question's resolution window (before Dec 1, 2026).

**Prediction market odds (outside-view aggregation):**
- On Polymarket's "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?" market (opened May 26, 2026, ~$1.7M volume), as of the most recent data: China 76%, "No meeting by December 31" 21%, United States ~3%, all other locations <1% each. The site's own synthesis: 
China leads market pricing at 75.5% primarily because the APEC summit is scheduled for Shenzhen on November 18-19, with Putin confirmed to attend and Trump expected, creating a concrete window for bilateral or trilateral talks alongside Xi Jinping.

- A separate, newer Polymarket market "Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?" (launched Sep 25, 2026) was pricing 
Kremlin statements have highlighted the possibility of a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the APEC leaders' summit scheduled for November in Shenzhen, with traders assigning a 70.5% implied probability for a joint sighting before the end of 2026
.
- Track record caveat: these same markets have been volatile and sometimes wrong-footed by delays — e.g., an earlier (Sep 2025-vintage) "Where will Trump and Putin meet next" market priced 
"No meeting by June 30" at 100%
 before expiring, and a similar market from mid-2026 showed 
China 70%, No meeting by December 31 27%
 just weeks before the fetch above showed China risen to 76% — indicating odds have been trending upward toward "Yes" as APEC approaches but are not locked in.
- Trump's own stated base rate for negotiation success is informative context but not meeting-specific: ahead of the August 2025 Anchorage summit he said 
"there is a 25 percent chance this meeting will not be a successful meeting"
 — showing that even confirmed meetings have had non-trivial public uncertainty attached beforehand, though that uncertainty was about outcome, not occurrence.

**Caveat/distinction for this specific question:** Unlike the Polymarket "Dec 31" markets, this Metaculus question's window closes Dec 1, 2026 — i.e., it needs the APEC meeting (or some other meeting) to happen specifically before Dec 1. Since APEC falls Nov 18-19, it is captured, but it is the only confirmed near-term scheduled opportunity; the G20 Miami summit (where Putin is reportedly likely to skip) falls in December, outside this window.

BOTTOM LINE: The historical base rate strongly favors "Yes" when both leaders are slated to attend the same multilateral summit (as has consistently produced a meeting in 2017-2019), and current prediction markets price a meeting (primarily via APEC Shenzhen, Nov 18-19) at roughly 75-80% likely by year-end 2026, with the APEC date itself falling safely before the Dec 1 cutoff — though these odds have fluctuated considerably over the past year and no meeting is yet formally confirmed.

NOT FOUND: An official, confirmed bilateral/trilateral meeting agenda or White House/Kremlin statement locking in a Trump-Putin encounter at APEC Shenzhen; a Metaculus community/metaculus-prediction percentage for this exact question (45876/46057) was not retrievable via search.

### KEY FACTORS
**Key factors determining whether Trump and Putin meet in person before Dec 1, 2026:**

1. **Both leaders' independent confirmation of APEC Shenzhen attendance (Nov 18-19).** This is the single scheduled window inside the resolution period. Trump has publicly confirmed his plans: after Xi's state visit, 
Trump confirmed in a subsequent post to social media that he planned to attend the APEC summit, which will be hosted in Shenzhen on November 18 and 19
, and a Diplomat analysis dated Oct 7 confirms 
Trump is scheduled, officially, for one more international trip this year: from November 16 to 19, to attend the ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit in the Philippines and then to attend the APEC Summit in Shenzhen, China
. Putin's attendance is conditional: as of Sept 25 (TASS), 
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he intends to attend the APEC summit in China. The president reiterated that his trip to the summit will depend on the situation inside Russia
. China's Foreign Ministry formally welcomed this on Oct 3: 
China welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin's attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen this November, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said Saturday
. Controlled by: Putin's domestic situation (Russia/Ukraine war dynamics); Trump's schedule (his control).

2. **Whether a Trump-Putin encounter at APEC is being actively planned vs. merely "discussed."** As of Oct 6, Kremlin aide Ushakov stated explicitly that 
Russia, China and the United States have not yet discussed the organization of a possible trilateral meeting of the leaders of the countries on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. According to him, the idea of holding such a meeting is known to all three leaders, but concrete preparations for it are not underway yet. "No one has yet dealt with such a practical elaboration of this meeting," Ushakov said
. This is a lag between stated intent and operational planning — logistics (bilateral vs. trilateral format, security, scheduling) still need to be worked out with roughly six weeks remaining.

3. **Direct Trump-Putin phone diplomacy already addressing the idea.** Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirmed the topic was raised leader-to-leader, not just at aide level: asked whether 
Trump and Putin discussed the idea of a trilateral meeting in Shenzhen during their phone call on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Undoubtedly." "This potential possibility has been mentioned before, and there will be such an opportunity,"
 Peskov said. Putin himself has publicly welcomed the idea at the Valdai forum, where he 
said that a trilateral summit with the leaders of the US and China "may be possible" during the upcoming APEC summit in China... hailed it as "useful"
. This shows top-level buy-in from the Russian side, controlled jointly by Trump and Putin themselves.

4. **State of Ukraine peace negotiations (the substantive precondition some officials want before any leaders' summit).** The parallel envoy track (Witkoff/Kushner) remains the operative channel: Axios (Oct 8-9, already in prior reports) describes a possible Moscow trip by Witkoff/Kushner before the midterms, following their Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 Moscow meetings with Putin (confirmed via Fox News/TASS-style readouts, e.g., the Jan 21-22, 2026 Kremlin-confirmed Witkoff-Kushner-Putin meeting). This recurring pattern shows that envoy-level Moscow visits have become routine substitutes for direct Trump-Putin contact over the past year, meaning a presidential-level meeting may not require a deal to be finalized first — Trump has met Putin directly before (Anchorage, Aug 2025) even mid-negotiation. Controlled by: pace of the Witkoff/Kushner-led ceasefire/security-guarantee talks, now centered on winter-energy-infrastructure ceasefire proposals.

5. **Russia-US bilateral relationship status, which affects Kremlin incentive to commit Putin's travel.** Peskov on Sept 27 (Sputnik) candidly noted 
Russia-US Relations Still Not in Best Shape... "Nevertheless, bilateral relations are still, to put it mildly, not in the best shape," Peskov said
, even while confirming APEC as an opportunity. This tempers optimism: cordial statements about a possible APEC encounter coexist with acknowledged strained ties, which was the same dynamic that preceded the abrupt cancellation of the planned Budapest summit (late Oct 2025, in prior reports).

**Sequence required for a "Yes" resolution:** (a) Putin's domestic situation must not prevent his travel decision (his own stated conditionality); (b) Chinese organizers must finalize a program slot — bilateral or trilateral — for Putin and Trump, which Ushakov said as of Oct 6 had not yet been "practically elaborated"; (c) no last-minute cancellation (as happened with Budapest) driven by a stalled Ukraine deal or a Rubio/Lavrov-style breakdown; (d) both leaders physically present in Shenzhen Nov 18-19 and occupying the same space, even briefly, satisfying the fine print's "see and hear each other" test — a low bar typically met automatically when both leaders attend the same summit, as happened in 2017-2019.

BOTTOM LINE: No Trump-Putin meeting is confirmed or on a public schedule as of Oct 9, 2026; the active diplomatic track is envoy-level (Witkoff/Kushner), not presidential. However, APEC Shenzhen (Nov 18-19) is a concrete, dated window inside the resolution period at which both leaders have independently signaled intent to attend, and both governments have acknowledged discussing a possible bilateral/trilateral encounter there — though as of Oct 6 no logistics had been worked out and Putin's attendance remains explicitly conditional on Russia's domestic situation.

NOT FOUND: Any White House statement committing to a specific Trump-Putin bilateral format at APEC; a finalized APEC program/schedule naming a Trump-Putin session; any statement from either side definitively ruling out a meeting before Dec 1; confirmation of the Witkoff-Kushner Moscow trip's final date or outcome.

### EXPERT VIEW
**Prediction markets (Polymarket) — most directly relevant, dollar-weighted:**
- [2026-10-09] Polymarket's "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?" market (opened May 26, 2026, $1.7M+ volume) currently prices 
China at 70%, "No meeting by December 31" at 27%, United States at 2.4%, Switzerland under 1%
. A more recent snapshot of the same market shows 
China leading at 76%, "No meeting by December 31" at 21%, United States at 3.1%
, suggesting the "no meeting" probability has been drifting down slightly (27%→21%) as APEC approaches. https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678
- Market commentary attributes the China-heavy pricing to 
the APEC summit scheduled for Shenzhen on November 18-19, with Putin confirmed to attend and Trump expected, creating a concrete window for bilateral or trilateral talks alongside Xi Jinping
. https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678
- The same listing notes the "no meeting" share reflects 
recent White House comments ruling out an immediate in-person summit, ongoing phone diplomacy without firm dates, and uncertainty over Putin's G20 attendance in Miami
, indicating the question's own listed December 1 APEC date is the market's central scenario but not a lock.
- A separate, simpler "Trump meets with Putin by December 31?" Polymarket contract is trading around 71% Yes, and a related "Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?" contract around 74% Yes (both referenced as "related markets" on the China/no-meeting listing, dated 2026-10). https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-trump-and-putin-meet-next-678
- [2026-09-25] A newer Polymarket market, "Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?", launched Sep 25, 2026, is priced at 
72% for "Yes," having launched on Sep 25, 2026
, with traders citing 
recent diplomatic engagement between the three leaders, including bilateral summits in Beijing and Washington in 2026, and meetings between Xi and Putin in Beijing and at the SCO gathering in Bishkek
, plus 
Kremlin statements highlighting the possibility of a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen
. https://polymarket.com/event/trump-putin-and-xi-seen-together-before-2027

**Kalshi:**
- Kalshi runs a recurring "Who will Trump meet with" series that has repeatedly listed Vladimir Putin as a named contract across different months in 2025-2026 (e.g., "Who will Trump meet with in 2026?" and monthly variants), but no single aggregated current percentage for a Dec 1, 2026 cutoff was surfaced in available results; a related 2026 instance ("Who will Donald Trump meet this year?") showed 
Vladimir Putin priced around 32%
 as of roughly two months before this report (age ~61 days), i.e., circa August 2026, before the current October diplomatic developments. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpmeeting/who-will-trump-meet-this-year/kxtrumpmeeting-27jan01

**Track record / caveats on these markets:**
- These are the same types of markets that in 2025 repeatedly swung sharply on Kremlin/White House statements — e.g., a Polymarket "Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?" contract resolved Yes after the actual August 15, 2025 Alaska summit, while an October 2025 Budapest-summit plan was abandoned after being announced, per ABC News reporting that 
there are no plans for President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet "in the immediate future," a White House official said on Tuesday -- calling off a summit that was expected in Hungary
. This history shows these markets/trackers have previously been whipsawed by abrupt last-minute cancellations, so current high "China/APEC" pricing should be read as a base-rate estimate, not a certainty.
- Markets consistently price the "no meeting" / "never happens" outcome in the 20-30% range as of early-to-mid October 2026, down from 100% "no meeting" priced in a prior narrower-window market that expired June 30, 2026 without a meeting (
"No meeting by June 30" 100.0%
), showing sentiment has shifted meaningfully toward "yes" as the APEC summit date nears.

**Metaculus:** No current Metaculus community-prediction percentage specific to this question (post_id 45876 / question_id 46057) was found in search results; only indirectly related historical Metaculus questions on the broader Russia-Ukraine war state surfaced.

BOTTOM LINE: Prediction markets (chiefly Polymarket, with over $1.7M traded on the most relevant contract) currently assign roughly 70-80% probability that Trump and Putin will meet again in 2026, with China/APEC-Shenzhen (Nov 18-19) seen as the dominant likely venue, and the "no meeting by year-end" outcome priced around 20-27% as of early-to-mid October 2026; these odds have moved toward "yes" over the past several months but carry a well-documented history of volatility given past last-minute summit cancellations.

NOT FOUND: A dedicated, current Metaculus community-prediction percentage for this specific question (post 45876); a precise, dated Kalshi contract percentage for a Trump-Putin meeting specifically before December 1, 2026 (only older ~32% data point from ~August 2026 and general market-series listings were found); any formal polling of foreign-policy experts/analysts giving numeric probabilities (only qualitative commentary, e.g., Carnegie's Andrew Weiss, was found, without a probability estimate).

### YES CASE
YES means: Trump and Putin are confirmed to occupy the same physical space (see, hear each other directly) at least once between October 9, 2026 and December 1, 2026 — most plausibly as a bilateral pull-aside or trilateral encounter on the sidelines of APEC China 2026 in Shenzhen (Nov 18–19).

- [2026-10-02] Putin personally said he "welcomed, in general, the idea of holding a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the APEC summit" — a direct, on-the-record statement of intent from Putin himself, not just an aide's speculation. https://sputnikglobe.com/20261002/china-welcomes-russias-intention-to-attend-apec-summit---foreign-ministry-1124826433.html
- [2026-10-03] China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun explicitly confirmed Beijing "welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin's attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen this November," responding directly to a question about whether a Putin-Xi sideline meeting would occur. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-10-03/China-welcomes-Putin-s-attendance-at-APEC-meeting-in-Shenzhen-1QWEZHw6xkQ/p.html
- [2026-10-02] The Russian Foreign Ministry told Sputnik it "welcomes President Putin's participation in the informal meeting of APEC leaders, which will be held in Shenzhen this November," and did not rule out — while declining to confirm — a possible trilateral with the US and Chinese leaders. https://sputnikglobe.com/20261002/china-welcomes-russias-intention-to-attend-apec-summit---foreign-ministry-1124826433.html
- [2026-09-24] Trump confirmed on social media his own plan to attend APEC Shenzhen Nov 18–19, meaning both leaders now have affirmative, overlapping travel commitments to the same venue on the same dates — the strongest structural precondition for a meeting (per the colleague reports above).
- Historical mechanism/base rate: at every APEC or G20 summit from 2017–2019 where Trump and Putin were both present, an in-person encounter occurred even when a "formal" bilateral was explicitly ruled out beforehand — e.g., at APEC Da Nang 2017, despite the White House announcing no formal sitdown, the two leaders still shook hands and talked during the gala/family-photo session, with Peskov predicting "their paths will cross one way or another," which came true within hours. https://amp.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-putin-meeting-1.4396641
- [2025-12-02] and [2026-01-22]: the Witkoff/Kushner channel to the Kremlin is already well-established and recurring (Witkoff/Kushner met Putin at the Kremlin on Dec 2, 2025, and again Jan 22, 2026 for "overnight Ukraine peace talks"), demonstrating an active, functioning US-Russia negotiating track that could produce enough substantive progress to justify elevating contact to the presidential level before APEC. https://www.euronews.com/embed/2864454
- [2026-10-09] The imminent Witkoff/Kushner Moscow trip (reported by Axios, planned for later this month, before the midterms) is explicitly aimed at a "breakthrough" that could generate the diplomatic momentum and agenda substance needed to justify a leader-level meeting at APEC, continuing the same envoy-to-summit pipeline that preceded the August 2025 Anchorage summit.
- Mechanism for "spontaneous" YES even absent a deal: as in 2017 Da Nang, a formal bilateral is not required for the question to resolve Yes — the fine print only requires physical co-presence with mutual sight/sound, a bar met by APEC's gala dinners, family photos, and leaders' retreats, which both men are now independently scheduled to attend.

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest Yes case rests on freshly confirmed facts from the past week — Putin's own public openness (Oct 2) to a trilateral at APEC and China's official welcome (Oct 3) of his attendance — combined with Trump's already-confirmed APEC travel plans and the historical pattern (2017–2019) that co-attendance at a major summit has reliably produced at least an informal Trump-Putin encounter even when a formal meeting was explicitly denied beforehand.

NOT FOUND: An official White House or Kremlin confirmation that a bilateral/trilateral meeting agenda has been locked in for APEC Shenzhen; confirmation that Putin's travel plans (contingent, per his own caveat, on "the situation in Russia") remain firm closer to Nov 18–19; any statement ruling in (rather than just not ruling out) Trump-Putin contact at APEC from a named senior US official post-Oct 8.

### NO CASE
YES means: Trump and Putin physically occupy the same space (seeing/hearing each other directly) at least once between 2026-10-09 and 2026-12-01 — most plausibly as a bilateral, trilateral, or summit-sideline encounter at APEC China 2026 (Shenzhen, Nov 18–19), since no dedicated bilateral summit is currently scheduled.

- [2025-10-21] The last time a Trump-Putin meeting was actively being arranged (Budapest), it collapsed days before the window even opened: a White House official said 
"There are no plans for President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin to meet 'in the immediate future'"
 and the Kremlin added 
Moscow also denied that a meeting was imminent, saying that preparations "could take time," with Peskov noting "No precise timeframe was initially set here... Preparation is needed, serious preparation."
 This precedent shows announced Trump-Putin summits have a recent track record of unraveling at the last stage over substance (territorial/NATO conditions), not logistics — the same substantive gap (Ukraine ceasefire terms) remains unresolved as of Oct 9.
- [2026-10-09] As of the most current envoy-track reporting, the active diplomatic channel is explicitly sub-presidential: Witkoff and Kushner are shuttling to Miami and potentially Moscow, with no Trump-Putin encounter attached to that itinerary, and Rubio has already framed the war as a "strategic stalemate" — language that historically precedes delay, not an imminent leaders' summit.
- [2026-09-21/23] Even the APEC "natural opportunity" is not a lock: multiple outlets citing Bloomberg report 
"the possibility of Putin attending the G20 summit as extremely remote," with Putin intending "to participate in APEC for the first time since 2017"
 — but Putin's APEC plan was sourced to unnamed Kremlin-adjacent people, not an official confirmation, and crucially 
"the White House has not confirmed whether Trump will attend the Shenzhen gathering"
 as of that report.
- [2026-10-07] The Kremlin's own spokesman as recently as Oct 7 described any Trump-Putin-Xi encounter as unresolved: Ushakov said Putin's bilateral with Xi is locked in, but 
Putin has confirmed his APEC presence but Trump "no ha confirmado aún su presencia" in Shenzhen, so the possibility of a tripartite meeting "depende" on that
 — i.e., the single scheduled venue capable of producing a YES still lacks a confirmed U.S. presidential travel commitment less than six weeks out.
- [2026-10-06] Ukrainian outlet UNN's reporting (already flagged in prior research) that "no one has yet worked out the practical details" of a Putin-Trump-Xi encounter at APEC underscores that even if both leaders attend, a structured bilateral/trilateral sit-down is not organizationally locked in — contact at a multilateral summit does not automatically guarantee a direct, un-intermediated meeting as defined in the fine print (seeing/hearing each other, not merely co-attendance).
- [2026-10-08] Putin's travel pattern this month (meeting Iran's Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan, engaging CIS summit) shows continued reliance on non-Western, non-ICC-member venues for face time, consistent with his historical avoidance of exposure in venues with Western-aligned security/legal risk; China is a non-ICC state so this is not a barrier for Shenzhen specifically, but it illustrates Putin's broader caution before committing to high-profile co-attendance with Trump.
- [2026-10-09] Secondary/unofficial claims of Putin's "immediate" agreement to a Xi-brokered trilateral (reported via a former DPR adviser, dated Sept 29) remain unconfirmed by Kremlin or White House and explicitly note Trump "has yet to commit" — a single unofficial source is weak evidence for a firm YES-producing event.
- [Historical baseline] Unlike 2017–2019, when every instance of co-attendance at a G20/APEC summit reliably produced a meeting, the current environment differs materially: the war is ongoing and unresolved, both sides have just walked back a scheduled bilateral (Budapest) over substantive disagreement, and Putin is reportedly skipping Trump's own hosted summit (G20 Miami, Dec 14-15) — behavior suggesting Putin may be managing optics/avoiding a second "failed-outcome" encounter with Trump absent a deal, which could extend to limiting direct exposure even at APEC if talks stall further by November.

BOTTOM LINE: The only concrete scheduled window within the resolution period (APEC Shenzhen, Nov 18–19) still has an unconfirmed Trump travel commitment and an unresolved trilateral/bilateral meeting mechanism as of the latest (Oct 7-9) Kremlin and diplomatic reporting, while the most recent precedent (Budapest, Oct 2025) shows a nearly-finalized Trump-Putin summit can still collapse over substance within days — both factors support a real, non-trivial path to NO despite elevated market pricing toward YES.

NOT FOUND: No White House statement (post-Oct 8) confirming Trump will personally attend APEC Shenzhen; no Kremlin statement finalizing Putin's in-person APEC attendance (only Kremlin-sourced/Bloomberg reporting of intent); no agreed agenda, date, or venue for a dedicated Trump-Putin bilateral before Dec 1, 2026.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources above show the resolving condition ALREADY met (or already impossible) as of today? If so, say which source and price it at the cap. Otherwise, name what would still have to happen and by when (the RESOLUTION date).
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market, treat its price as a strong, well-calibrated prior and name the specific evidence the market lacks whenever you land more than ~15 percentage points from it. A RELATED market (different deadline, threshold or resolution) is context only — do not anchor on it. If no market is listed, there is none on this question; do not assume one.
- **Anchor on the resolution source.** If the evidence includes a RESOLUTION SOURCE block, the question resolves on what THAT page shows, not on what the world does. If it says the resolving condition is already met, the correct probability is at the cap (0.97-0.98); if definitively unmet with no path left, 0.02-0.03. Otherwise its current state is your status quo, and the gap between the source and reality (lagging updates, different metric, classification rules) is a first-class risk to price explicitly, not a footnote at 5%.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (0) (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}