Will any country other than the DRC have more than 100 confirmed cases of Bundibugyo ebolavirus during 2026?

- [2026-08-25] WHO declared the end of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in Uganda after 42 days with no new confirmed case; 
on 25 August, WHO declared the end of the outbreak following 42 days without a new confirmed case being reported
, per ECDC's tracking page. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-09-29 (reporting on data)] Uganda's cumulative confirmed case count for the entire outbreak was capped at 20 (per WHO/ECDC), with 
a total of 20 cases reported between May and June 2026 by the Ministry of Health
. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-09-23] The latest WHO Disease Outbreak News (DON618, published 25 Sept 2026) confirms 7,890 cases in DRC only, with no additional confirmed-case counts for Uganda given, since Uganda's outbreak is officially closed; 
As of 23 September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported 7890 confirmed cases, including 3799 deaths, resulting in a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 48.1%
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

- [2026-09-25] The same DON explicitly frames the outbreak as DRC-only in its current phase, citing spread to a 7th province (Sud Ubangi) and Dungu health zone bordering South Sudan, i.e., internal geographic expansion rather than international spread; 
Since the last Disease Outbreak News was published on 11 September 2026, the Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has expanded further, with two additional health zones affected...bordering South Sudan
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

- [2026-08-12] Earlier WHO DON615 gave the last combined cross-country tally showing Uganda's confirmed cases plateaued at 20 while DRC's climbed rapidly: 
Cumulatively as of 12 August 2026, 4686 confirmed cases have been reported: 4665 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (including two cases diagnosed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and subsequently treated in Germany), 20 in Uganda
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON615

- [2026-07-17] Isolated imported cases outside Africa remain in the single digits: one case in France (recovered, discharged, no secondary transmission) and two U.S. citizens medically evacuated to Germany for treatment (both recovered), confirming no country other than DRC/Uganda has approached double digits, let alone 100. https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/disease-outbreak-news-ebola-disease-caused-bundibugyo-virus-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-17-july-2026

- [2026-09-29] The CDC's current situation page confirms no domestic transmission risk in the U.S., stating 
To date, no cases of Ebola disease have been confirmed in the United States because of this outbreak
. https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html

- [2026-09-28/29] Latest AskNews-sourced reporting (Sept 26-28) puts DRC's cumulative total at 8,067 confirmed cases and 3,901 deaths, with the outbreak now the largest in DRC history and second-largest globally after West Africa 2014-16, but all of this growth remains confined to DRC's own provinces (Ituri, North Kivu, etc.), not new countries. https://www.op-online.de/welt/mehr-als-000-ebola-faelle-im-kongo-bald-000-tote-zr-94515113.html

- [2026-08-30] WHO's Weekly External Situation Report #16 (data as of 30 Aug 2026) similarly frames the outbreak as centered in DRC provinces (Ituri, Nord-Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Bas-Uélé), with no case growth reported for Uganda or any other country in this update; 
Since External Situation Report #15, a further 516 confirmed cases and 270 confirmed deaths have been reported, bringing the cumulative total to 6100 confirmed cases, including 2950 deaths (CFR 48.4%), as of 30 August 2026
. https://afro.who.int/countries/uganda/publication/ebola-bundibugyo-virus-disease-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-weekly-external-situation

BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent WHO Disease Outbreak News (25 Sept 2026, data to 23 Sept) and Weekly External Situation Reports, DRC alone accounts for essentially all confirmed cases (7,890–8,067 and rising), while Uganda's outbreak was formally declared over on 25 August 2026 with a final cumulative total of only 20 confirmed cases, and all other countries (France, Germany, U.S.) have recorded only 1-3 imported/evacuated cases each — none within striking distance of the >100 threshold with roughly three months left before the resolution date.

NOT FOUND: No source indicates any new country (beyond DRC and the now-closed Uganda outbreak) has reported any confirmed Bundibugyo cases since July 2026; no evidence of renewed transmission in Uganda or spread into South Sudan, Rwanda, or other neighboring states despite geographic expansion of DRC health zones toward those borders.

**Base rate / outside view for this question**

- [2007-08 to 2008-02] The first-ever BDBV outbreak (Uganda) ended with only 
a confirmed Ebola haemorrhagic fever outbreak caused by a putative new species, Bundibugyo ebolavirus, that included 93 putative cases, 56 laboratory-confirmed cases, and 37 deaths
. Confirmed case count never approached 100, let alone in a country other than DRC (this was the only outbreak where DRC wasn't even involved). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3532309/

- [2012] The second historical BDBV outbreak occurred entirely within DRC, per CEPI's summary, which lists 
three known outbreaks – one in 2007 in Uganda, one in 2012 in the DRC and an epidemic in 2026
, with the 2012 event reported as roughly 77 suspected cases. https://cepi.net/ebola-bundibugyo

- [2026, historical reference class conclusion] Across all three known BDBV epidemics (1976–2026), no single country other than DRC has ever recorded more than ~120 confirmed/suspected BDBV cases in total (Uganda 2007 ≈56 confirmed; Uganda 2026 ≈20 confirmed). This is the empirical base rate the question must beat.

- [2026-05-15 to 2026-05-17] In the current (third) BDBV epidemic, Uganda declared its own outbreak after 
the Uganda Ministry of Health confirmed an outbreak of BVD following the identification of one imported case from DRC, a Congolese man who died in the capital city of Kampala
, later joined by a second early case, per WHO's PHEIC declaration. https://www.who.int/news/item/17-05-2026-epidemic-of-ebola-disease-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-uganda-determined-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern

- [2026-07-28] Uganda's outbreak was formally declared over well below the 100-case threshold: 
the Ministry of Health of Uganda declared the end of the BVD outbreak in the country following 42 days without a new locally transmitted confirmed case being reported; as of 28 July 2026, Uganda had confirmed 20 laboratory-confirmed cases and two deaths in Kampala and Wakiso, of which 15 were imported cases linked to travel from DRC
. https://www.nicd.ac.za/bundibugyo-virus-disease-updates/

- [2026-08-25] WHO/ECDC corroborate this outcome: 
in Uganda, a total of 20 cases were reported between May and June 2026 by the Ministry of Health; on 25 August, WHO declared the end of the outbreak following 42 days without a new confirmed case being reported
. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026, other countries] Every other country to record any BDBV case has had only isolated imported/exported cases with no sustained local transmission: 
an imported case in a US citizen was medically evacuated to Germany for treatment, a further imported case was reported in France on 24 June 2026, and a US citizen working for a humanitarian organisation in DRC tested positive and was evacuated to Germany on 13 July 2026 — all three have since recovered
. France, Germany and the US each have single-digit case counts (1–2), far below 100. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-07-30] The WHO Disease Outbreak News confirms the country breakdown showing DRC totally dominates confirmed cases: 
cumulatively, 3626 confirmed cases have been reported: 3605 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (including two cases diagnosed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and subsequently treated in Germany), 20 in Uganda and one in France
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON614

- [2026-08-30] The most recent WHO AFRO weekly situation report (Sitrep 16) shows the outbreak's growth (
Since External Situation Report #15, a further 516 confirmed cases and 270 confirmed deaths have been reported, bringing the cumulative total to 6100 confirmed cases, including 2950 deaths (CFR 48.4%), as of 30 August 2026
) is occurring entirely within DRC's provinces — no new-country spread is mentioned. https://afro.who.int/countries/uganda/publication/ebola-bundibugyo-virus-disease-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-weekly-external-situation

- [Forecast/expert view] No betting markets or formal forecast trackers specific to "which country reaches 100 BDBV cases" were found; expert commentary (CEPI, Africa CDC, WHO risk assessments) consistently frames cross-border risk in terms of "high" regional risk but "low" global risk, and to date no non-DRC country risk assessment has been raised to a level implying sustained community transmission comparable to DRC's.

**BOTTOM LINE:** In the entire 19-year history of Bundibugyo ebolavirus (three outbreaks: 2007 Uganda, 2012 DRC, 2026 DRC/Uganda), no country other than DRC has ever confirmed more than ~56 cases (Uganda 2007) or ~20 cases (Uganda 2026); all other international cases have been single-digit imported events with no onward transmission. The historical base rate for a non-DRC country crossing 100 confirmed BDBV cases is effectively 0%, and the current outbreak's cross-border spread (Uganda, France, Germany, US) has been successfully contained in every instance so far.

NOT FOUND: No dedicated prediction-market odds, formal probabilistic forecasts, or expert survey specifically addressing "will a non-DRC country exceed 100 BDBV cases in 2026"; no evidence of any country besides DRC currently trending toward sustained community transmission.

- [2026-09-27] The most current ECDC tracker (data to 26 Sept) confirms all growth remains DRC-internal: 
the DRC reported 8,067 confirmed cases as of data up to 26 September, an increase of 78 new confirmed cases since the previous report, with the 78 new cases reported from Ituri (57), North Kivu (17), Haut-Uélé (three), and Bas-Uélé (one)
 — no non-DRC health zone contributed.
- [2026-09-25] WHO's DON618 explicitly names the mechanism now driving risk: 
since 11 September the outbreak expanded to two additional health zones, Bulu in new province Sud Ubangi (bordering Central African Republic) and Dungu in Haut-Uélé (bordering South Sudan), an expansion that increases the risk of cross-border transmission
 — this is the key leading indicator: border-zone case emergence precedes any actual export.
- [2026-09-25] Despite this, WHO's own tiered risk assessment (last updated 14 August) still treats border states collectively rather than flagging any single country as imminent: 
on 14 August WHO reassessed risk, separating land-border countries from the rest of the African region; DRC risk is very high, land-border-country risk is high, and risk for the rest of Africa and globally remains low
.
- [2026-09-27] Kenya's inclusion on Africa CDC's at-risk list is a political/preparedness signal, not an epidemiological one: 
Africa CDC named ten countries at risk — Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, CAR, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Zambia — reflecting concern over population movement and cross-border transmission as the outbreak expands
, but no confirmed cases exist yet in any of them, meaning containment inside DRC (via IPC, contact tracing, community trust) remains the sole lever controlling whether this list ever becomes real case counts.
- [2026-09-2x] Ground-level South Sudan preparedness reporting shows the actual chokepoint is border screening capacity, not case importation yet: 
health officials are intensifying efforts to prevent Ebola reaching Ezo, with a WHO team assessing a border crossing escorted by UNMISS peacekeepers, though controlling the border is much harder beyond the checkpoint, as local authorities identify three main routes into Congo but only one is currently monitored
 — porous, under-monitored borders are the mechanism by which any future spillover would occur, but as of this report no case had crossed.
- [2026-07-13] Historical modeling from mid-outbreak (IRC) had flagged a much higher near-term probability than materialized: 
the confirmation of two cases in Wamba, Haut-Uélé Province, near the South Sudan border significantly heightened cross-border risk, with WHO estimating a 70% likelihood that Ebola will spread into the country
 — this 70% import-probability estimate has not yet translated into any confirmed South Sudanese case through late September, over ten weeks later, illustrating that even elevated modeled risk has repeatedly failed to convert into sustained case chains in this outbreak.
- [2026-09-27] The only confirmed non-DRC, non-Uganda cases to date remain isolated, evacuated individuals with no local transmission: 
an imported US citizen case was medically evacuated to Germany in May, a further case was reported in France on 24 June, and a US humanitarian worker tested positive and was evacuated to Germany on 13 July — all three recovered — and ECDC modelling indicates the probability of importation into the EU/EEA remains very low, with multiple independent importations very unlikely even under a pessimistic scenario
.
- [2026-09-29] Structural drivers keeping the outbreak DRC-confined are unchanged and worsening internally rather than externally: contact-tracing capacity remains critically low (one contact traced per 20 patients versus the recommended 60), and roughly 100 active armed groups in North Kivu are driving a 56% three-week case rise there — i.e., the disease is intensifying inward (deeper into DRC's own conflict zones) rather than outward across borders, per AskNews' Sept 29 summary of DRC Ministry/Africa CDC data.
- [2026, mechanism] For the outcome to occur, the causal chain would require: (1) a confirmed case crossing into a specific neighboring country (most likely South Sudan via Dungu/Ezo, or CAR via Bulu, given the newest DON618 health-zone expansions); (2) failure of that country's border screening/IPC to isolate the chain, given South Sudan's acknowledged weak health infrastructure and only one of three border routes monitored; (3) sustained community (not just imported) transmission for weeks, since even Uganda's 2026 outbreak — the single most at-risk neighbor with a 94% modeled importation probability — capped out at 20 cases before being declared over in August; and (4) this sustained chain would need to produce over 100 confirmed cases and be captured in a WHO External Situation Report before 2027.

BOTTOM LINE: The proximate risk factor — DRC's outbreak reaching new health zones bordering South Sudan and CAR (confirmed 25 Sept) — has increased importation risk, but every prior high-probability spillover scenario in this same outbreak (Uganda's 94% modeled risk, South Sudan's 70% WHO-estimated risk) has so far resulted in at most 20 confirmed cases and rapid containment; no primary WHO or national source shows any confirmed case yet in a new country as of late September, leaving a very long causal chain (import → border failure → sustained multi-week local transmission → 100+ confirmed cases → WHO reporting) that no comparable event in this outbreak's five months has come close to completing.

NOT FOUND: No confirmed Bundibugyo case has been reported in South Sudan, CAR, Rwanda, Kenya, or any other newly at-risk country as of the most recent WHO DON (25 Sept) or ECDC update (27 Sept); no updated WHO rapid risk assessment beyond the 14 August version (v4) was located reflecting the Dungu/Bulu health-zone expansion.

**Epidemiological modeling / expert risk assessments**
- [2026-06-25] A recalibrated stochastic SEIRD model published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases estimated cross-border importation probabilities over a 12-week horizon: 
Uganda 94.2% importation probability (19 confirmed cases as of June 4, 2026), South Sudan 69.3%, Rwanda 8.6%, and Burundi 2.0%
. These are importation-event probabilities, not projections of >100 cumulative cases in any one country. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1473309926003208
- [2026-06-25] The same study's authors caution that 
"Control measures within DR Congo remain the primary determinant of regional spillover risk"
, implying other countries' case totals are downstream of DRC containment rather than independently trending toward large outbreaks. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1473309926003208
- [2026-05-24/2026-06] CDC's branching-process modeling (MMWR) focused only on DRC/overall outbreak size scenarios, not country-specific breakdowns for non-DRC nations, projecting 
"the likelihood of an outbreak that exceeds 20,000 cases within 3 months is 65%"
 under poor isolation, versus much smaller outbreaks under high isolation — this bears on total outbreak size but not specifically on other-country case counts. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13257927/

**Metaculus (crowd forecasters, CDC collaboration)**
- [2026-06-19] In the CDC–Metaculus "Respiratory Outlook" June update, forecasters put the 
Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC has passed 676 confirmed cases, with forecasters putting the eventual outbreak size near a median of 5,200
 (this question concerned total outbreak size, presumably DRC-centric). https://metaculus.substack.com/p/cdc-metaculus-respiratory-outlook-may-update
- [2026-06-19] On the specific question of international spread, Metaculus forecasters gave 
just a 9% chance of a case first confirmed on US soil before 2027, citing 21-day quarantine rules, limited importation routes, and no asymptomatic spread
 — indicating low community confidence in significant spread to non-African countries. No Metaculus question specifically tracking ">100 cases in a country other than DRC" was found. https://metaculus.substack.com/p/cdc-metaculus-respiratory-outlook-may-update

**Africa CDC official risk list and actual outcomes to date**
- [2026-09-27] Africa CDC Director-General Dr Jean Kaseya publicly named 
Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Zambia
 as at-risk countries, stating "We have 10 countries at risk," but as of that date none of these ten had any confirmed cases. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads
- [2026-09-27] Notably, 
"the epidemiological situation in the DRC shows signs of improvement in some indicators"
 and Uganda's own outbreak was declared over months prior, leading the UAE to lift Uganda-specific travel restrictions while keeping them for DRC and South Sudan. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads
- [2026-08-28] WHO's own rapid risk assessment (DON616) rated 
the risk for countries sharing land borders with the DRC as high, with Uganda, CAR and South Sudan of particular concern for importation, while risk for the rest of the African region and globally remained low
 — i.e., official expert consensus places only 2–3 countries at meaningfully elevated risk, and even that risk is "importation," not sustained >100-case transmission chains. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON616

**Track record: realized outcomes versus expert warnings so far**
- [2026-08-25] Despite being assessed at 94% importation probability by modelers, Uganda's actual outbreak was declared over on this date after 42 days without a new case, with a final tally of 
20 cases reported between May and June 2026, with WHO declaring the end of the outbreak following 42 days without a new confirmed case
 — a strong indicator that even the highest-risk neighboring country topped out far below 100 cases despite expert alarm. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda
- [2026-06-30] Case-count-based studies for South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi never materialized into confirmed cases at all through late September 2026, despite modeled importation probabilities as high as 69.3% for South Sudan. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1473309926003208
- [2026-09-27] Other confirmed international cases remain single-digit and isolated (one in France, two medically evacuated Americans treated in Germany), none amounting to sustained local transmission chains. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads

BOTTOM LINE: Expert epidemiological models (Lancet ID, CDC/MMWR) flagged Uganda and South Sudan as high-importation-risk, and Africa CDC has formally listed 10 countries as "at risk," but the empirical track record undercuts alarm: Uganda's own outbreak — the single highest-probability spillover target — ended in August 2026 at only 20 cases, and no other country has recorded any sustained local transmission. Crowd forecasters (Metaculus) similarly assign low odds (~9%) even to a single confirmed case reaching US soil, suggesting expert and market sentiment leans strongly toward "No" for any non-DRC country crossing 100 cases in 2026.

NOT FOUND: No dedicated Polymarket, Kalshi, or Manifold market specifically tracking ">100 confirmed Bundibugyo cases outside DRC in 2026" was located; no Metaculus question with that exact threshold/country framing was found (only adjacent questions on total outbreak size and US soil importation).

YES means: some country other than the DRC (e.g., South Sudan, the Central African Republic, or another neighbouring/importing state) records more than 100 confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus cases at some point during 2026, as reflected in the last 2026 WHO External Situation Report.

- [2026-09-25] The outbreak has newly reached Dungu health zone in Haut-Uélé, which the WHO explicitly flags as 
Dungu health zone in Haut-Uélé province, bordering South Sudan
, and Bulu health zone in the new province of Sud-Ubangi bordering CAR; WHO states this 
latest geographic expansion increases the risk of cross-border transmission
 (WHO DON618).

- [2026-08-28] WHO's own rapid risk assessment names South Sudan and CAR — not just Uganda — as the top importation-risk countries: 
Uganda, the Central African Republic and South Sudan are of particular concern for importation given their proximity, high population mobility and connectivity with areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo currently experiencing intense transmission... For the Central African Republic and South Sudan, these risks are further compounded by high humanitarian needs, population displacement, insecurity and underlying limitations in health-system capacity
 (WHO DON616).

- [2026-06-25] Peer-reviewed Lancet Infectious Diseases modelling projected South Sudan's 12-week importation probability at 69.3%, second only to Uganda's 94.2%, and explicitly recommends 
robust cross-border coordination for South Sudan requires urgent reinforcement of infection prevention and control, rapid response, and point of entry surveillance
 — a warning issued before the virus had even reached a South Sudan-bordering health zone, which it has now done as of September.

- [2026-08-14] CAR has already convened a formal cross-border consultation and deployed a 
mobile laboratory has been deployed in Obo, near the borders with the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan
 — evidence that CAR authorities themselves treat imminent importation as a live operational scenario, not a remote hypothetical (WHO AFRO).

- [2026-09-27] Africa CDC has now formally escalated its warning from the earlier Uganda/CAR/South Sudan trio to a 10-country list — 
Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Zambia
 — as the DRC total neared 8,000 cases, showing the risk assessment has broadened, not narrowed, over time (Standard Media/AFP).

- [2026-09-27] Unlike Uganda's contained 2026 outbreak, South Sudan and CAR have markedly weaker health-system capacity and are already experiencing severe internal displacement and insecurity, per WHO's own framing quoted above; if the virus establishes local transmission in Dungu's cross-border catchment (Western Equatoria, South Sudan) or Obo's catchment (south-eastern CAR), containment could plausibly take far longer than Uganda's 20-case, ~3-month contained episode, given fewer resources for the kind of rapid contact tracing that stopped Uganda's chain.

- [2026-09-29] The parent DRC outbreak itself is far from slowing: 
the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported a total of 8,067 confirmed cases, including 3,901 related deaths...This represents an increase of 78 new confirmed cases and 49 deaths since the previous report
, and contact-tracing coverage remains incomplete at 
74.7% of identified case contacts are under follow-up
 — meaning roughly a quarter of contacts are unmonitored, a persistent leak point for further cross-border seeding over the three remaining months of 2026 (ECDC, 29 Sept update).

- [2026-09-29] Wikipedia's continuously updated tracker independently corroborates that by early August this had become 
the fastest growing Ebola outbreak on record, as well as the second largest
 — an outbreak of this unprecedented speed and scale increases the absolute number of cross-border exposure events per unit time compared with any historical BDBV outbreak, raising the tail probability that at least one importation event seeds sustained (not just imported/isolated) transmission in a fragile neighbouring state before year-end.

- [2026-09-11] Local DRC officials in the newly-affected border province are themselves voicing alarm about regional spread: a Sud-Ubangi provincial official noted 
Our province borders Congo-Brazzaville and the Central African Republic. We fear it may spread regionally
 — direct, dated testimony from an official closest to the new frontier of spread (PBS/AP, ~11 Sept).

BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to YES is a spillover into South Sudan (via Dungu/Western Equatoria) or the Central African Republic (via Obo, near the new Bulu health zone), both of which WHO and Africa CDC now formally rank as top importation risks with weaker health-system capacity than Uganda; combined with the outbreak's still-active, record-fast growth and incomplete (74.7%) contact-tracing coverage in DRC, the structural preconditions for a >100-case spillover event are more elevated now than at any prior point in the outbreak, even though no such case has yet been confirmed in any country besides DRC.

NOT FOUND: No confirmed case of Bundibugyo virus has yet been reported in South Sudan, CAR, or any of the 10 at-risk countries named by Africa CDC as of the most recent search (through 29 Sept 2026); no quantitative modelled probability specifically for the >100-case threshold in a non-DRC country during 2026 was located.

YES means: at least one country other than the DRC (e.g., Uganda, South Sudan, CAR, Rwanda, Kenya, or any importing country like France/Germany/US) confirms more than 100 total Bundibugyo ebolavirus cases at some point during 2026, as recorded in the last WHO External Situation Report published in 2026.

- [2026-09-25] The latest WHO Disease Outbreak News (DON618) attributes the entirety of the new case growth to internal DRC geographic expansion — two newly affected health zones (Bulu in Sud Ubangi, bordering CAR, and Dungu in Haut-Uélé, bordering South Sudan) — with WHO stating this only "increases the risk of cross-border transmission," a forward-looking risk statement, not a report of any actual case in a new country. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

- [2026-09-27] ECDC's near-real-time tracker (data to 26 Sept) breaks down the newest 78 confirmed cases entirely by DRC province — 
The 78 new cases have been reported from Ituri (57 cases), North Kivu (17 cases), Haut-Uélé (three cases), and Bas-Uélé (one case)
 — with zero cases attributed to Uganda or any other country in this update. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-09-27] Despite Africa CDC formally listing ten neighboring/regional countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, CAR, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Zambia) as "at risk," the same report notes zero confirmed cases in any of them and that 
the epidemiological situation in the DRC shows signs of improvement in some indicators, although transmission remains active
, undercutting the case for imminent regional breakout. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads

- [2026-09-29] Uganda's official outbreak was closed a full month ago (25 Aug) at a terminal count of only 20 cases; no source in the past 30 days reports Uganda reopening or recording a new case, meaning its running total remains frozen far below the 100 threshold with only ~3 months left in the resolution window.

- [2026-06-25] The Lancet Infectious Diseases stochastic model that assigned South Sudan a 69.3% "importation probability" and Rwanda 8.6% concluded these were 12-week-horizon single-event importation odds, not projections of case counts anywhere near 100; the same paper stresses 
Control measures within DR Congo remain the primary determinant of regional spillover risk
, meaning any non-DRC country's case count is capped by (and lags) DRC's own trajectory rather than growing independently. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(26)00320-8/fulltext

- [2026-06-04] Even at the point of peak alarm, the same model's confirmed Uganda case count (used as the calibration anchor) was only 19, and Uganda's importation probability of 94.2% converted into just one more case before the outbreak died out entirely — i.e., the single most "at-risk" country, with near-certainty odds of importation, still topped out at 20. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42349475/

- [2026-09-23] US CDC's own situation page, aligned with the DON618 data cutoff, states plainly that 
CDC is responding to an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in remote areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). To date, no cases of Ebola disease have been confirmed in the United States because of this outbreak
, reinforcing that the only non-African cases (France, Germany-treated Americans) remain isolated single-digit imports with no domestic transmission anywhere. https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html

- [2026-09-25] The Africa CDC risk list itself is nearly unchanged from its original 24 May 2026 iteration (same 10 countries named then and now), indicating four-plus months of stagnant risk assessment with no country graduating from "at risk" to "affected" — a strong status-quo signal against any new country crossing even the first case, let alone 100. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads

- [2026-09-23] WHO's own historical framing in DON618 notes the only two prior BDBV outbreaks (Uganda 2007, DRC 2012) had case fatality ratios of 30% and 50% respectively, underscoring that even in the disease's only prior non-DRC occurrence (Uganda 2007), the confirmed case count topped out at 56 — well under 100 — supporting the base-rate argument that no historical precedent exists for a non-DRC country crossing this threshold. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

BOTTOM LINE: Every primary WHO/ECDC data point through 27 September 2026 shows 100% of new case growth occurring within DRC's own provinces, Uganda's outbreak closed months ago at 20 cases, all other international cases remain single-digit imports with no local transmission, and the ten Africa-CDC-flagged "at-risk" countries have recorded zero confirmed cases four months after being named — collectively a strong, well-evidenced case for NO with roughly three months remaining.

NOT FOUND: No report of any confirmed case in South Sudan, CAR, Rwanda, Kenya, or any of the other eight Africa-CDC-listed at-risk countries at any point in 2026; no indication Uganda's outbreak has reopened since its 25 August closure.

8 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 9 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-09-29] DRC Ebola Outbreak Reaches 8,067 Cases with 3,901 Deaths as Ituri Cases Drop
op-online.de — https://www.op-online.de/welt/mehr-als-000-ebola-faelle-im-kongo-bald-000-tote-zr-94515113.html
  - As of September 26, 2026, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has confirmed 8,067 Ebola cases and 3,901 deaths since the outbreak began in mid-May 2026, according to the country's health authorities and the Africa CDC.
  - The outbreak, involving seven provinces, is the second-largest in history after the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic.
  - A hopeful development was reported in the Ituri province, where case numbers fell by 25% over the last three weeks.
  - Conversely, the neighboring North Kivu province saw a 56% increase in cases during the same period.
  - The Africa CDC attributes this rise to ongoing conflict, noting that approximately 100 armed groups are active in the region, causing displacement and forcing patients to delay seeking medical care.
  - Contact tracing remains problematic, with a ratio of only 1 traced contact per 20 patients, far below the recommended 1-to-60 ratio.
  - The outbreak involves the Bundibugyo strain, for which no specific vaccine or therapy currently exists; clinical trials for antiviral treatments began in July 2026, and researchers are testing whether the Ervebo vaccine (approved for the Zaire strain) offers protection against this specific variant.

[2026-09-28] DRC Ebola Outbreak Surpasses 8,000 Cases, Becoming Largest in Country's History
facepress.ma — https://facepress.ma/315487/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86%d8%ba%d9%88-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%85%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b7%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%aa/
  - According to government data published on September 28, 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has recorded over 8,000 confirmed Ebola cases for the first time since the outbreak began.
  - The latest report from the Public Health Institute of the Ministry of Health indicates that the total number of infections has risen to 8,067, with 3,901 deaths.
  - This is now the largest and deadliest outbreak in the country's history, surpassing the 2018-2020 epidemic.
  - The only larger outbreak in history occurred in West Africa between 2014 and 2016, which infected over 28,600 people and killed more than 11,000.
  - The United Nations has previously warned of the need for additional resources to curb the virus amidst difficult humanitarian conditions.
  - Most cases are concentrated in the Ituri province, where Ebola infections were detected in schools following the summer break, causing concern among parents and health workers.
  - The current outbreak is caused by the 'Bundibugyo' strain, for which there is currently no approved vaccine or treatment.

[2026-09-10] Bundibugyo Virus Outbreak in DRC Reaches 6,757 Cases with 48.3% Fatality Rate as of September 2026
ReliefWeb — https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/disease-outbreak-news-ebola-disease-caused-bundibugyo-virus-democratic-republic-congo-10-september-2026
  - As of 7 September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is experiencing a severe outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD), a zoonotic Ebola variant, with 6,757 confirmed cases and 3,267 deaths reported within the country, resulting in a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 48.3%.
  - The outbreak has expanded to 61 health zones across six provinces: Bas-Uélé, Haut-Uélé, Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tshopo, with Ituri remaining the epicentre accounting for 5,406 cases.
  - Since the previous report on 28 August 2026, the DRC reported an additional 963 confirmed cases and 481 deaths.
  - Globally, as of 7 September 2026, there are 6,778 confirmed cases and 3,269 deaths, including 20 cases and two deaths in Uganda, one case in France, and two cases treated in Germany.
  - North Kivu province has recorded a notably high CFR of 65.4%, prompting ongoing investigations.
  - The outbreak is complicated by a complex humanitarian setting involving over 26 million people facing acute food insecurity and approximately one million internally displaced persons in Ituri alone, which hinders surveillance and care.
  - In response, the WHO has assessed the risk in the DRC as 'very high' and in neighboring countries as 'high'.
  - While the licensed vaccine Ervebo is being used in research protocols and has vaccinated 2,007 people across three provinces as of 6 September 2026, the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) concluded on 19 August 2026 that evidence is insufficient for its programmatic use against BVD.
  - Additionally, the PARTNERS clinical trial for treatments began on 2 July 2026 and has enrolled over 300 patients in Ituri.
  - The WHO advises against travel restrictions but emphasizes the need for strengthened cross-border coordination and surveillance to prevent further regional spread.

[2026-07-19] Ebola Bundibugyo Outbreak in DRC and Uganda: Over 2,100 Cases and 800+ Deaths as of July 2026
ReliefWeb — https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/disease-outbreak-news-ebola-disease-caused-bundibugyo-virus-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-17-july-2026
  - As of 15 July 2026, the Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remains active with 2,124 confirmed cases and 828 deaths reported, according to WHO data.
  - The outbreak has spread across 46 health zones in five provinces, with Ituri province accounting for 89.6% of cases (1,904) and 83.6% of deaths (692).
  - Since 3 July 2026, an additional 664 cases and 376 deaths were reported in the DRC, partly due to increased surveillance.
  - A crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 39% has been recorded in the DRC, while 390 patients have recovered.
  - In Uganda, no new cases have been reported since 21 June 2026, with a total of 20 confirmed cases and two deaths; the country has begun a 42-day enhanced surveillance period following the discharge of the most recent case on 16 July.
  - Internationally, a US humanitarian worker tested positive in the DRC and was evacuated to Germany on 13 July 2026, marking the second US citizen treated there.
  - Another US citizen was previously evacuated to Germany in May 2026 and recovered.
  - A single case in France was reported on 24 June 2026, recovered, and discharged on 4 July with no secondary transmission.
  - WHO assesses the risk as 'very high' in the DRC and 'high' in Uganda and neighboring countries, while global risk remains 'low'.
  - Infections among health workers in the DRC have reached 119 cases with 36 deaths (CFR 30.3%), highlighting ongoing occupational risks.

[2026-06-26] IOM Situation Report No. 6: Multi-Country Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak as of June 2026
ReliefWeb — https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/multi-country-bundibugyo-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-situation-report-no-6
  - As of 23 June 2026, the World Health Organization confirmed more than 1,000 cases of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with an additional 20 cases confirmed in Uganda on 24 June.
  - In response, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has conducted 1,710,863 health screenings at points of entry and control (PoEs and PoCs) across affected countries.
  - IOM also reached 691,684 individuals through risk communication and community engagement activities, and conducted 221 Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) capacity-building sessions.
  - IOM has supported 242 PoEs across affected and at-risk countries.
  - Funding received stands at USD 20 million, while USD 55.8 million is required.
  - The outbreak is unfolding in a context where 14.9 million people in DRC alone require humanitarian assistance.
  - Challenges include insecurity, access constraints, and community resistance.
  - IOM's response focuses on Priority 1a countries (DRC and Uganda), Priority 1b countries (Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan), and Priority 2 countries (Angola, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and Zambia).

[2026-06-05] DRC Confirms 71 New Ebola Cases as Total Reaches 452
Agência Brasil — https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/saude/noticia/2026-06/republica-democratica-do-congo-confirma-mais-71-casos-de-ebola
  - On Friday, June 5, 2026, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) confirmed 71 new cases of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 452, according to reports cited by Reuters.
  - These infections have resulted in 82 deaths.
  - The outbreak, which has also affected Uganda, is considered one of the most severe since the disease's discovery, prompting the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare it a public health emergency of international concern.
  - In response, the WHO and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), linked to the African Union, announced a joint continental response plan on June 5, 2026.
  - The plan, running from June to November 2026, aims to raise $518 million to assist African countries and partners in accelerating preparation, detection, and response capabilities.
  - Because there are currently no specific vaccines or treatments for the Bundibugyo strain, the strategy focuses on strengthening health system resilience in affected nations and those at high risk of importing the virus, including South Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, Zambia, the Central African Republic, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Angola, Republic of the Congo (Brazzaville), and Burundi.

[2026-05-29] Africa CDC Targets 2026 for Bundibugyo Ebola Vaccine Amidst Rising Case Counts in DRC and Uganda
Adnkronos — https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/esteri/ebola-news-vaccino-farmaco_1sgIrjTJBw7xKFywQKwgTW
  - Jean Kaseya, Director General of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), has asserted that a vaccine and treatment for the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus will be available by the end of 2026.
  - Speaking during a briefing on the ongoing emergency in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where cases have also been recorded in Uganda, Kaseya stated, 'What we can say with certainty is that by the end of this year, 2026, Africa CDC will ensure we have a vaccine and a drug against the Bundibugyo virus.' While no approved vaccines currently exist, Kaseya noted the presence of candidates and confirmed collaboration with Russian researchers, though a specific African health expert clarified that the Russian vaccine targets the Zaire species and its efficacy against Bundibugyo remains under discussion.
  - Kaseya expressed determination to have the tools ready for a potential fourth wave, criticizing the disparity in research compared to Western countries.
  - Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
  - As of May 26, the DRC reported 1,077 suspected cases (121 confirmed, 110 in Ituri) and 238 suspected deaths (17 confirmed).
  - In Uganda, the Ministry of Health confirmed two new cases on May 29, bringing the total to 9, including one death; both were Congolese citizens.
  - Consequently, Uganda closed its border with the DRC and imposed a 21-day quarantine on arrivals.
  - Additionally, Nigeria's National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) identified 21 of its 36 states as high or moderate risk for importation, citing the country's population of over 242 million and porous borders.
  - NCDC Director General Jide Idris warned that Ebola symptoms mimic malaria and Lassa fever, increasing the risk of late diagnosis.

[2026-05-25] WHO Reports Over 900 Suspected Ebola Cases in DRC Amid International Concern
Deutsche Welle — https://www.dw.com/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%83%D8%AB%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%86-900-%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86%D8%BA%D9%88/a-77284860
  - On Sunday, May 25, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that over 900 suspected cases of Ebola have been detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
  - WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated on social media that intensive surveillance efforts have identified more than 900 suspected cases, including 101 confirmed cases, though no update was provided on the death toll.
  - The outbreak began on May 15, 2026, caused by the Bundibugyo strain, for which there is currently no approved vaccine or treatment.
  - A previous update from the DRC Ministry of Health on Saturday reported 204 deaths among 867 suspected cases across three provinces.
  - The current outbreak is considered one of the deadliest in history, with the Bundibugyo strain having a case fatality rate of up to 50%.
  - The WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) to address the 17th outbreak in the DRC, a country with a population exceeding 100 million.
  - The virus spreads through contact with bodily fluids and is naturally hosted by fruit bats and other animals.
  - While vaccines exist for the Zaire strain (offering 97.5-100% protection), they are not effective against the current Bundibugyo strain.
  - Neighboring Uganda confirmed three new infections, bringing its total to five with one death.
  - The African Centre for Disease Control warned that ten countries, including South Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Burundi, Angola, Central African Republic, and Zambia, are threatened.

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The outbreak is a Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak occurring in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with situation reports labeled 'Democratic Republic of the Congo | Uganda Weekly External Situation Report' up to Report 19 (data as of 20 September 2026); the fetched text does not give a case breakdown by country or a total case count for Uganda or any other country.
  Last updated: 20 September 2026 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The situation report titles mention 'Democratic Republic of the Congo | Uganda' suggesting Uganda may be involved or listed jointly, but no actual case numbers for Uganda or any non-DRC country are given in the fetched text. The actual PDF/report content with case counts was not retrieved, only titles/headlines. The final 2026 situation report (needed per fine print) has not yet been identified as the last one of the year since this page shows data only through September 2026.
  Fetched: https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-disease (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: https://www.forbes.com/sites/omerawan/2026/05/16/why-the-current-ebola-outbreak-in-congo-matters-to-the-entire-world (HTTP 403)

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Bundibugyo ebolavirus:
  Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) is a species of orthoebolavirus that is closely related to the Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV). The virus is one of several that can cause Ebola disease in humans, taking the form of viral hemorrhagic fever.

  2026 Ebola epidemic:
  The 2026 Ebola epidemic is an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) mainly in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighbouring countries, including Uganda. Initial cases were reported on 14 May 2026 in the Ituri Province. It is the 17th Ebola outbreak in the DRC and began five months after the end of the previous outbreak. Early infections are theorised to have occurred in January or February 2026 in the town of Mongbwalu. By early August, it had become the fastest growing Ebola outbreak on record, as well as the second largest.

  2026 Ebola epidemic:
  The 2026 Ebola epidemic is an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) mainly in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighbouring countries, including Uganda. Initial cases were reported on 14 May 2026 in the Ituri Province. It is the 17th Ebola outbreak in the DRC and began five months after the end of the previous outbreak. Early infections are theorised to have occurred in January or February 2026 in the town of Mongbwalu. By early August, it had become the fastest growing Ebola outbreak on record, as well as the second largest.

You are an elite superforecaster. Read ALL the research below — the raw tool outputs, the news bundle and the six research reports — and give one calibrated probability for this Metaculus binary question.

## Question
Will any country other than the DRC have more than 100 confirmed cases of Bundibugyo ebolavirus during 2026?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Forbes: [Why The Current Ebola Outbreak In Congo Matters To The Entire World](https://www.forbes.com/sites/omerawan/2026/05/16/why-the-current-ebola-outbreak-in-congo-matters-to-the-entire-world)

`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "89116da7670ff8b8", "sheet_id": "3"}}`

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo has >100 total confirmed cases of Bundibugyo ebolavirus during 2026.

## Fine Print
The source for this question will be the last World Health Organisation [External Situation Report](https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-disease) released during 2026. No other source will be used. 

This question will not re-resolve based on future revisions.

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (SUCCESS)
RESOLUTION SOURCE (the page the question resolves on — treat as the status-quo anchor):
  Current state: The outbreak is a Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak occurring in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with situation reports labeled 'Democratic Republic of the Congo | Uganda Weekly External Situation Report' up to Report 19 (data as of 20 September 2026); the fetched text does not give a case breakdown by country or a total case count for Uganda or any other country.
  Last updated: 20 September 2026 | already resolved: unclear | page matches criteria: True
  Note: The situation report titles mention 'Democratic Republic of the Congo | Uganda' suggesting Uganda may be involved or listed jointly, but no actual case numbers for Uganda or any non-DRC country are given in the fetched text. The actual PDF/report content with case counts was not retrieved, only titles/headlines. The final 2026 situation report (needed per fine print) has not yet been identified as the last one of the year since this page shows data only through September 2026.
  Fetched: https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-disease (HTTP 200)
  Fetched: https://www.forbes.com/sites/omerawan/2026/05/16/why-the-current-ebola-outbreak-in-congo-matters-to-the-entire-world (HTTP 403)

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Bundibugyo ebolavirus:
  Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) is a species of orthoebolavirus that is closely related to the Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV). The virus is one of several that can cause Ebola disease in humans, taking the form of viral hemorrhagic fever.

  2026 Ebola epidemic:
  The 2026 Ebola epidemic is an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) mainly in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighbouring countries, including Uganda. Initial cases were reported on 14 May 2026 in the Ituri Province. It is the 17th Ebola outbreak in the DRC and began five months after the end of the previous outbreak. Early infections are theorised to have occurred in January or February 2026 in the town of Mongbwalu. By early August, it had become the fastest growing Ebola outbreak on record, as well as the second largest.

  2026 Ebola epidemic:
  The 2026 Ebola epidemic is an outbreak of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) mainly in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and neighbouring countries, including Uganda. Initial cases were reported on 14 May 2026 in the Ituri Province. It is the 17th Ebola outbreak in the DRC and began five months after the end of the previous outbreak. Early infections are theorised to have occurred in January or February 2026 in the town of Mongbwalu. By early August, it had become the fastest growing Ebola outbreak on record, as well as the second largest.

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-09-29; forecasting closes 2026-09-30; resolves 2027-01-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
8 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 9 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-09-29] DRC Ebola Outbreak Reaches 8,067 Cases with 3,901 Deaths as Ituri Cases Drop
op-online.de — https://www.op-online.de/welt/mehr-als-000-ebola-faelle-im-kongo-bald-000-tote-zr-94515113.html
  - As of September 26, 2026, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has confirmed 8,067 Ebola cases and 3,901 deaths since the outbreak began in mid-May 2026, according to the country's health authorities and the Africa CDC.
  - The outbreak, involving seven provinces, is the second-largest in history after the 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic.
  - A hopeful development was reported in the Ituri province, where case numbers fell by 25% over the last three weeks.
  - Conversely, the neighboring North Kivu province saw a 56% increase in cases during the same period.
  - The Africa CDC attributes this rise to ongoing conflict, noting that approximately 100 armed groups are active in the region, causing displacement and forcing patients to delay seeking medical care.
  - Contact tracing remains problematic, with a ratio of only 1 traced contact per 20 patients, far below the recommended 1-to-60 ratio.
  - The outbreak involves the Bundibugyo strain, for which no specific vaccine or therapy currently exists; clinical trials for antiviral treatments began in July 2026, and researchers are testing whether the Ervebo vaccine (approved for the Zaire strain) offers protection against this specific variant.

[2026-09-28] DRC Ebola Outbreak Surpasses 8,000 Cases, Becoming Largest in Country's History
facepress.ma — https://facepress.ma/315487/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86%d8%ba%d9%88-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%85%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b7%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7-%d8%aa/
  - According to government data published on September 28, 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has recorded over 8,000 confirmed Ebola cases for the first time since the outbreak began.
  - The latest report from the Public Health Institute of the Ministry of Health indicates that the total number of infections has risen to 8,067, with 3,901 deaths.
  - This is now the largest and deadliest outbreak in the country's history, surpassing the 2018-2020 epidemic.
  - The only larger outbreak in history occurred in West Africa between 2014 and 2016, which infected over 28,600 people and killed more than 11,000.
  - The United Nations has previously warned of the need for additional resources to curb the virus amidst difficult humanitarian conditions.
  - Most cases are concentrated in the Ituri province, where Ebola infections were detected in schools following the summer break, causing concern among parents and health workers.
  - The current outbreak is caused by the 'Bundibugyo' strain, for which there is currently no approved vaccine or treatment.

[2026-09-10] Bundibugyo Virus Outbreak in DRC Reaches 6,757 Cases with 48.3% Fatality Rate as of September 2026
ReliefWeb — https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/disease-outbreak-news-ebola-disease-caused-bundibugyo-virus-democratic-republic-congo-10-september-2026
  - As of 7 September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is experiencing a severe outbreak of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD), a zoonotic Ebola variant, with 6,757 confirmed cases and 3,267 deaths reported within the country, resulting in a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 48.3%.
  - The outbreak has expanded to 61 health zones across six provinces: Bas-Uélé, Haut-Uélé, Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tshopo, with Ituri remaining the epicentre accounting for 5,406 cases.
  - Since the previous report on 28 August 2026, the DRC reported an additional 963 confirmed cases and 481 deaths.
  - Globally, as of 7 September 2026, there are 6,778 confirmed cases and 3,269 deaths, including 20 cases and two deaths in Uganda, one case in France, and two cases treated in Germany.
  - North Kivu province has recorded a notably high CFR of 65.4%, prompting ongoing investigations.
  - The outbreak is complicated by a complex humanitarian setting involving over 26 million people facing acute food insecurity and approximately one million internally displaced persons in Ituri alone, which hinders surveillance and care.
  - In response, the WHO has assessed the risk in the DRC as 'very high' and in neighboring countries as 'high'.
  - While the licensed vaccine Ervebo is being used in research protocols and has vaccinated 2,007 people across three provinces as of 6 September 2026, the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) concluded on 19 August 2026 that evidence is insufficient for its programmatic use against BVD.
  - Additionally, the PARTNERS clinical trial for treatments began on 2 July 2026 and has enrolled over 300 patients in Ituri.
  - The WHO advises against travel restrictions but emphasizes the need for strengthened cross-border coordination and surveillance to prevent further regional spread.

[2026-07-19] Ebola Bundibugyo Outbreak in DRC and Uganda: Over 2,100 Cases and 800+ Deaths as of July 2026
ReliefWeb — https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/disease-outbreak-news-ebola-disease-caused-bundibugyo-virus-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-17-july-2026
  - As of 15 July 2026, the Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remains active with 2,124 confirmed cases and 828 deaths reported, according to WHO data.
  - The outbreak has spread across 46 health zones in five provinces, with Ituri province accounting for 89.6% of cases (1,904) and 83.6% of deaths (692).
  - Since 3 July 2026, an additional 664 cases and 376 deaths were reported in the DRC, partly due to increased surveillance.
  - A crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 39% has been recorded in the DRC, while 390 patients have recovered.
  - In Uganda, no new cases have been reported since 21 June 2026, with a total of 20 confirmed cases and two deaths; the country has begun a 42-day enhanced surveillance period following the discharge of the most recent case on 16 July.
  - Internationally, a US humanitarian worker tested positive in the DRC and was evacuated to Germany on 13 July 2026, marking the second US citizen treated there.
  - Another US citizen was previously evacuated to Germany in May 2026 and recovered.
  - A single case in France was reported on 24 June 2026, recovered, and discharged on 4 July with no secondary transmission.
  - WHO assesses the risk as 'very high' in the DRC and 'high' in Uganda and neighboring countries, while global risk remains 'low'.
  - Infections among health workers in the DRC have reached 119 cases with 36 deaths (CFR 30.3%), highlighting ongoing occupational risks.

[2026-06-26] IOM Situation Report No. 6: Multi-Country Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak as of June 2026
ReliefWeb — https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/multi-country-bundibugyo-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-situation-report-no-6
  - As of 23 June 2026, the World Health Organization confirmed more than 1,000 cases of Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with an additional 20 cases confirmed in Uganda on 24 June.
  - In response, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has conducted 1,710,863 health screenings at points of entry and control (PoEs and PoCs) across affected countries.
  - IOM also reached 691,684 individuals through risk communication and community engagement activities, and conducted 221 Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) capacity-building sessions.
  - IOM has supported 242 PoEs across affected and at-risk countries.
  - Funding received stands at USD 20 million, while USD 55.8 million is required.
  - The outbreak is unfolding in a context where 14.9 million people in DRC alone require humanitarian assistance.
  - Challenges include insecurity, access constraints, and community resistance.
  - IOM's response focuses on Priority 1a countries (DRC and Uganda), Priority 1b countries (Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan), and Priority 2 countries (Angola, Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, and Zambia).

[2026-06-05] DRC Confirms 71 New Ebola Cases as Total Reaches 452
Agência Brasil — https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/saude/noticia/2026-06/republica-democratica-do-congo-confirma-mais-71-casos-de-ebola
  - On Friday, June 5, 2026, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) confirmed 71 new cases of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 452, according to reports cited by Reuters.
  - These infections have resulted in 82 deaths.
  - The outbreak, which has also affected Uganda, is considered one of the most severe since the disease's discovery, prompting the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare it a public health emergency of international concern.
  - In response, the WHO and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), linked to the African Union, announced a joint continental response plan on June 5, 2026.
  - The plan, running from June to November 2026, aims to raise $518 million to assist African countries and partners in accelerating preparation, detection, and response capabilities.
  - Because there are currently no specific vaccines or treatments for the Bundibugyo strain, the strategy focuses on strengthening health system resilience in affected nations and those at high risk of importing the virus, including South Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, Zambia, the Central African Republic, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Angola, Republic of the Congo (Brazzaville), and Burundi.

[2026-05-29] Africa CDC Targets 2026 for Bundibugyo Ebola Vaccine Amidst Rising Case Counts in DRC and Uganda
Adnkronos — https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/esteri/ebola-news-vaccino-farmaco_1sgIrjTJBw7xKFywQKwgTW
  - Jean Kaseya, Director General of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), has asserted that a vaccine and treatment for the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus will be available by the end of 2026.
  - Speaking during a briefing on the ongoing emergency in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where cases have also been recorded in Uganda, Kaseya stated, 'What we can say with certainty is that by the end of this year, 2026, Africa CDC will ensure we have a vaccine and a drug against the Bundibugyo virus.' While no approved vaccines currently exist, Kaseya noted the presence of candidates and confirmed collaboration with Russian researchers, though a specific African health expert clarified that the Russian vaccine targets the Zaire species and its efficacy against Bundibugyo remains under discussion.
  - Kaseya expressed determination to have the tools ready for a potential fourth wave, criticizing the disparity in research compared to Western countries.
  - Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
  - As of May 26, the DRC reported 1,077 suspected cases (121 confirmed, 110 in Ituri) and 238 suspected deaths (17 confirmed).
  - In Uganda, the Ministry of Health confirmed two new cases on May 29, bringing the total to 9, including one death; both were Congolese citizens.
  - Consequently, Uganda closed its border with the DRC and imposed a 21-day quarantine on arrivals.
  - Additionally, Nigeria's National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) identified 21 of its 36 states as high or moderate risk for importation, citing the country's population of over 242 million and porous borders.
  - NCDC Director General Jide Idris warned that Ebola symptoms mimic malaria and Lassa fever, increasing the risk of late diagnosis.

[2026-05-25] WHO Reports Over 900 Suspected Ebola Cases in DRC Amid International Concern
Deutsche Welle — https://www.dw.com/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D8%A3%D9%83%D8%AB%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%86-900-%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%A8%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%88%D9%86%D8%BA%D9%88/a-77284860
  - On Sunday, May 25, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that over 900 suspected cases of Ebola have been detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
  - WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated on social media that intensive surveillance efforts have identified more than 900 suspected cases, including 101 confirmed cases, though no update was provided on the death toll.
  - The outbreak began on May 15, 2026, caused by the Bundibugyo strain, for which there is currently no approved vaccine or treatment.
  - A previous update from the DRC Ministry of Health on Saturday reported 204 deaths among 867 suspected cases across three provinces.
  - The current outbreak is considered one of the deadliest in history, with the Bundibugyo strain having a case fatality rate of up to 50%.
  - The WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) to address the 17th outbreak in the DRC, a country with a population exceeding 100 million.
  - The virus spreads through contact with bodily fluids and is naturally hosted by fruit bats and other animals.
  - While vaccines exist for the Zaire strain (offering 97.5-100% protection), they are not effective against the current Bundibugyo strain.
  - Neighboring Uganda confirmed three new infections, bringing its total to five with one death.
  - The African Centre for Disease Control warned that ten countries, including South Sudan, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Burundi, Angola, Central African Republic, and Zambia, are threatened.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-08-25] WHO declared the end of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in Uganda after 42 days with no new confirmed case; 
on 25 August, WHO declared the end of the outbreak following 42 days without a new confirmed case being reported
, per ECDC's tracking page. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-09-29 (reporting on data)] Uganda's cumulative confirmed case count for the entire outbreak was capped at 20 (per WHO/ECDC), with 
a total of 20 cases reported between May and June 2026 by the Ministry of Health
. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-09-23] The latest WHO Disease Outbreak News (DON618, published 25 Sept 2026) confirms 7,890 cases in DRC only, with no additional confirmed-case counts for Uganda given, since Uganda's outbreak is officially closed; 
As of 23 September 2026, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has reported 7890 confirmed cases, including 3799 deaths, resulting in a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 48.1%
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

- [2026-09-25] The same DON explicitly frames the outbreak as DRC-only in its current phase, citing spread to a 7th province (Sud Ubangi) and Dungu health zone bordering South Sudan, i.e., internal geographic expansion rather than international spread; 
Since the last Disease Outbreak News was published on 11 September 2026, the Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has expanded further, with two additional health zones affected...bordering South Sudan
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

- [2026-08-12] Earlier WHO DON615 gave the last combined cross-country tally showing Uganda's confirmed cases plateaued at 20 while DRC's climbed rapidly: 
Cumulatively as of 12 August 2026, 4686 confirmed cases have been reported: 4665 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (including two cases diagnosed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and subsequently treated in Germany), 20 in Uganda
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON615

- [2026-07-17] Isolated imported cases outside Africa remain in the single digits: one case in France (recovered, discharged, no secondary transmission) and two U.S. citizens medically evacuated to Germany for treatment (both recovered), confirming no country other than DRC/Uganda has approached double digits, let alone 100. https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/disease-outbreak-news-ebola-disease-caused-bundibugyo-virus-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-17-july-2026

- [2026-09-29] The CDC's current situation page confirms no domestic transmission risk in the U.S., stating 
To date, no cases of Ebola disease have been confirmed in the United States because of this outbreak
. https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html

- [2026-09-28/29] Latest AskNews-sourced reporting (Sept 26-28) puts DRC's cumulative total at 8,067 confirmed cases and 3,901 deaths, with the outbreak now the largest in DRC history and second-largest globally after West Africa 2014-16, but all of this growth remains confined to DRC's own provinces (Ituri, North Kivu, etc.), not new countries. https://www.op-online.de/welt/mehr-als-000-ebola-faelle-im-kongo-bald-000-tote-zr-94515113.html

- [2026-08-30] WHO's Weekly External Situation Report #16 (data as of 30 Aug 2026) similarly frames the outbreak as centered in DRC provinces (Ituri, Nord-Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Bas-Uélé), with no case growth reported for Uganda or any other country in this update; 
Since External Situation Report #15, a further 516 confirmed cases and 270 confirmed deaths have been reported, bringing the cumulative total to 6100 confirmed cases, including 2950 deaths (CFR 48.4%), as of 30 August 2026
. https://afro.who.int/countries/uganda/publication/ebola-bundibugyo-virus-disease-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-weekly-external-situation

BOTTOM LINE: As of the most recent WHO Disease Outbreak News (25 Sept 2026, data to 23 Sept) and Weekly External Situation Reports, DRC alone accounts for essentially all confirmed cases (7,890–8,067 and rising), while Uganda's outbreak was formally declared over on 25 August 2026 with a final cumulative total of only 20 confirmed cases, and all other countries (France, Germany, U.S.) have recorded only 1-3 imported/evacuated cases each — none within striking distance of the >100 threshold with roughly three months left before the resolution date.

NOT FOUND: No source indicates any new country (beyond DRC and the now-closed Uganda outbreak) has reported any confirmed Bundibugyo cases since July 2026; no evidence of renewed transmission in Uganda or spread into South Sudan, Rwanda, or other neighboring states despite geographic expansion of DRC health zones toward those borders.

### BASE RATE
**Base rate / outside view for this question**

- [2007-08 to 2008-02] The first-ever BDBV outbreak (Uganda) ended with only 
a confirmed Ebola haemorrhagic fever outbreak caused by a putative new species, Bundibugyo ebolavirus, that included 93 putative cases, 56 laboratory-confirmed cases, and 37 deaths
. Confirmed case count never approached 100, let alone in a country other than DRC (this was the only outbreak where DRC wasn't even involved). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3532309/

- [2012] The second historical BDBV outbreak occurred entirely within DRC, per CEPI's summary, which lists 
three known outbreaks – one in 2007 in Uganda, one in 2012 in the DRC and an epidemic in 2026
, with the 2012 event reported as roughly 77 suspected cases. https://cepi.net/ebola-bundibugyo

- [2026, historical reference class conclusion] Across all three known BDBV epidemics (1976–2026), no single country other than DRC has ever recorded more than ~120 confirmed/suspected BDBV cases in total (Uganda 2007 ≈56 confirmed; Uganda 2026 ≈20 confirmed). This is the empirical base rate the question must beat.

- [2026-05-15 to 2026-05-17] In the current (third) BDBV epidemic, Uganda declared its own outbreak after 
the Uganda Ministry of Health confirmed an outbreak of BVD following the identification of one imported case from DRC, a Congolese man who died in the capital city of Kampala
, later joined by a second early case, per WHO's PHEIC declaration. https://www.who.int/news/item/17-05-2026-epidemic-of-ebola-disease-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-uganda-determined-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern

- [2026-07-28] Uganda's outbreak was formally declared over well below the 100-case threshold: 
the Ministry of Health of Uganda declared the end of the BVD outbreak in the country following 42 days without a new locally transmitted confirmed case being reported; as of 28 July 2026, Uganda had confirmed 20 laboratory-confirmed cases and two deaths in Kampala and Wakiso, of which 15 were imported cases linked to travel from DRC
. https://www.nicd.ac.za/bundibugyo-virus-disease-updates/

- [2026-08-25] WHO/ECDC corroborate this outcome: 
in Uganda, a total of 20 cases were reported between May and June 2026 by the Ministry of Health; on 25 August, WHO declared the end of the outbreak following 42 days without a new confirmed case being reported
. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026, other countries] Every other country to record any BDBV case has had only isolated imported/exported cases with no sustained local transmission: 
an imported case in a US citizen was medically evacuated to Germany for treatment, a further imported case was reported in France on 24 June 2026, and a US citizen working for a humanitarian organisation in DRC tested positive and was evacuated to Germany on 13 July 2026 — all three have since recovered
. France, Germany and the US each have single-digit case counts (1–2), far below 100. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-07-30] The WHO Disease Outbreak News confirms the country breakdown showing DRC totally dominates confirmed cases: 
cumulatively, 3626 confirmed cases have been reported: 3605 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (including two cases diagnosed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and subsequently treated in Germany), 20 in Uganda and one in France
. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON614

- [2026-08-30] The most recent WHO AFRO weekly situation report (Sitrep 16) shows the outbreak's growth (
Since External Situation Report #15, a further 516 confirmed cases and 270 confirmed deaths have been reported, bringing the cumulative total to 6100 confirmed cases, including 2950 deaths (CFR 48.4%), as of 30 August 2026
) is occurring entirely within DRC's provinces — no new-country spread is mentioned. https://afro.who.int/countries/uganda/publication/ebola-bundibugyo-virus-disease-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-uganda-weekly-external-situation

- [Forecast/expert view] No betting markets or formal forecast trackers specific to "which country reaches 100 BDBV cases" were found; expert commentary (CEPI, Africa CDC, WHO risk assessments) consistently frames cross-border risk in terms of "high" regional risk but "low" global risk, and to date no non-DRC country risk assessment has been raised to a level implying sustained community transmission comparable to DRC's.

**BOTTOM LINE:** In the entire 19-year history of Bundibugyo ebolavirus (three outbreaks: 2007 Uganda, 2012 DRC, 2026 DRC/Uganda), no country other than DRC has ever confirmed more than ~56 cases (Uganda 2007) or ~20 cases (Uganda 2026); all other international cases have been single-digit imported events with no onward transmission. The historical base rate for a non-DRC country crossing 100 confirmed BDBV cases is effectively 0%, and the current outbreak's cross-border spread (Uganda, France, Germany, US) has been successfully contained in every instance so far.

NOT FOUND: No dedicated prediction-market odds, formal probabilistic forecasts, or expert survey specifically addressing "will a non-DRC country exceed 100 BDBV cases in 2026"; no evidence of any country besides DRC currently trending toward sustained community transmission.

### KEY FACTORS
- [2026-09-27] The most current ECDC tracker (data to 26 Sept) confirms all growth remains DRC-internal: 
the DRC reported 8,067 confirmed cases as of data up to 26 September, an increase of 78 new confirmed cases since the previous report, with the 78 new cases reported from Ituri (57), North Kivu (17), Haut-Uélé (three), and Bas-Uélé (one)
 — no non-DRC health zone contributed.
- [2026-09-25] WHO's DON618 explicitly names the mechanism now driving risk: 
since 11 September the outbreak expanded to two additional health zones, Bulu in new province Sud Ubangi (bordering Central African Republic) and Dungu in Haut-Uélé (bordering South Sudan), an expansion that increases the risk of cross-border transmission
 — this is the key leading indicator: border-zone case emergence precedes any actual export.
- [2026-09-25] Despite this, WHO's own tiered risk assessment (last updated 14 August) still treats border states collectively rather than flagging any single country as imminent: 
on 14 August WHO reassessed risk, separating land-border countries from the rest of the African region; DRC risk is very high, land-border-country risk is high, and risk for the rest of Africa and globally remains low
.
- [2026-09-27] Kenya's inclusion on Africa CDC's at-risk list is a political/preparedness signal, not an epidemiological one: 
Africa CDC named ten countries at risk — Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, CAR, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Zambia — reflecting concern over population movement and cross-border transmission as the outbreak expands
, but no confirmed cases exist yet in any of them, meaning containment inside DRC (via IPC, contact tracing, community trust) remains the sole lever controlling whether this list ever becomes real case counts.
- [2026-09-2x] Ground-level South Sudan preparedness reporting shows the actual chokepoint is border screening capacity, not case importation yet: 
health officials are intensifying efforts to prevent Ebola reaching Ezo, with a WHO team assessing a border crossing escorted by UNMISS peacekeepers, though controlling the border is much harder beyond the checkpoint, as local authorities identify three main routes into Congo but only one is currently monitored
 — porous, under-monitored borders are the mechanism by which any future spillover would occur, but as of this report no case had crossed.
- [2026-07-13] Historical modeling from mid-outbreak (IRC) had flagged a much higher near-term probability than materialized: 
the confirmation of two cases in Wamba, Haut-Uélé Province, near the South Sudan border significantly heightened cross-border risk, with WHO estimating a 70% likelihood that Ebola will spread into the country
 — this 70% import-probability estimate has not yet translated into any confirmed South Sudanese case through late September, over ten weeks later, illustrating that even elevated modeled risk has repeatedly failed to convert into sustained case chains in this outbreak.
- [2026-09-27] The only confirmed non-DRC, non-Uganda cases to date remain isolated, evacuated individuals with no local transmission: 
an imported US citizen case was medically evacuated to Germany in May, a further case was reported in France on 24 June, and a US humanitarian worker tested positive and was evacuated to Germany on 13 July — all three recovered — and ECDC modelling indicates the probability of importation into the EU/EEA remains very low, with multiple independent importations very unlikely even under a pessimistic scenario
.
- [2026-09-29] Structural drivers keeping the outbreak DRC-confined are unchanged and worsening internally rather than externally: contact-tracing capacity remains critically low (one contact traced per 20 patients versus the recommended 60), and roughly 100 active armed groups in North Kivu are driving a 56% three-week case rise there — i.e., the disease is intensifying inward (deeper into DRC's own conflict zones) rather than outward across borders, per AskNews' Sept 29 summary of DRC Ministry/Africa CDC data.
- [2026, mechanism] For the outcome to occur, the causal chain would require: (1) a confirmed case crossing into a specific neighboring country (most likely South Sudan via Dungu/Ezo, or CAR via Bulu, given the newest DON618 health-zone expansions); (2) failure of that country's border screening/IPC to isolate the chain, given South Sudan's acknowledged weak health infrastructure and only one of three border routes monitored; (3) sustained community (not just imported) transmission for weeks, since even Uganda's 2026 outbreak — the single most at-risk neighbor with a 94% modeled importation probability — capped out at 20 cases before being declared over in August; and (4) this sustained chain would need to produce over 100 confirmed cases and be captured in a WHO External Situation Report before 2027.

BOTTOM LINE: The proximate risk factor — DRC's outbreak reaching new health zones bordering South Sudan and CAR (confirmed 25 Sept) — has increased importation risk, but every prior high-probability spillover scenario in this same outbreak (Uganda's 94% modeled risk, South Sudan's 70% WHO-estimated risk) has so far resulted in at most 20 confirmed cases and rapid containment; no primary WHO or national source shows any confirmed case yet in a new country as of late September, leaving a very long causal chain (import → border failure → sustained multi-week local transmission → 100+ confirmed cases → WHO reporting) that no comparable event in this outbreak's five months has come close to completing.

NOT FOUND: No confirmed Bundibugyo case has been reported in South Sudan, CAR, Rwanda, Kenya, or any other newly at-risk country as of the most recent WHO DON (25 Sept) or ECDC update (27 Sept); no updated WHO rapid risk assessment beyond the 14 August version (v4) was located reflecting the Dungu/Bulu health-zone expansion.

### EXPERT VIEW
**Epidemiological modeling / expert risk assessments**
- [2026-06-25] A recalibrated stochastic SEIRD model published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases estimated cross-border importation probabilities over a 12-week horizon: 
Uganda 94.2% importation probability (19 confirmed cases as of June 4, 2026), South Sudan 69.3%, Rwanda 8.6%, and Burundi 2.0%
. These are importation-event probabilities, not projections of >100 cumulative cases in any one country. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1473309926003208
- [2026-06-25] The same study's authors caution that 
"Control measures within DR Congo remain the primary determinant of regional spillover risk"
, implying other countries' case totals are downstream of DRC containment rather than independently trending toward large outbreaks. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1473309926003208
- [2026-05-24/2026-06] CDC's branching-process modeling (MMWR) focused only on DRC/overall outbreak size scenarios, not country-specific breakdowns for non-DRC nations, projecting 
"the likelihood of an outbreak that exceeds 20,000 cases within 3 months is 65%"
 under poor isolation, versus much smaller outbreaks under high isolation — this bears on total outbreak size but not specifically on other-country case counts. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13257927/

**Metaculus (crowd forecasters, CDC collaboration)**
- [2026-06-19] In the CDC–Metaculus "Respiratory Outlook" June update, forecasters put the 
Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern DRC has passed 676 confirmed cases, with forecasters putting the eventual outbreak size near a median of 5,200
 (this question concerned total outbreak size, presumably DRC-centric). https://metaculus.substack.com/p/cdc-metaculus-respiratory-outlook-may-update
- [2026-06-19] On the specific question of international spread, Metaculus forecasters gave 
just a 9% chance of a case first confirmed on US soil before 2027, citing 21-day quarantine rules, limited importation routes, and no asymptomatic spread
 — indicating low community confidence in significant spread to non-African countries. No Metaculus question specifically tracking ">100 cases in a country other than DRC" was found. https://metaculus.substack.com/p/cdc-metaculus-respiratory-outlook-may-update

**Africa CDC official risk list and actual outcomes to date**
- [2026-09-27] Africa CDC Director-General Dr Jean Kaseya publicly named 
Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Zambia
 as at-risk countries, stating "We have 10 countries at risk," but as of that date none of these ten had any confirmed cases. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads
- [2026-09-27] Notably, 
"the epidemiological situation in the DRC shows signs of improvement in some indicators"
 and Uganda's own outbreak was declared over months prior, leading the UAE to lift Uganda-specific travel restrictions while keeping them for DRC and South Sudan. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads
- [2026-08-28] WHO's own rapid risk assessment (DON616) rated 
the risk for countries sharing land borders with the DRC as high, with Uganda, CAR and South Sudan of particular concern for importation, while risk for the rest of the African region and globally remained low
 — i.e., official expert consensus places only 2–3 countries at meaningfully elevated risk, and even that risk is "importation," not sustained >100-case transmission chains. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON616

**Track record: realized outcomes versus expert warnings so far**
- [2026-08-25] Despite being assessed at 94% importation probability by modelers, Uganda's actual outbreak was declared over on this date after 42 days without a new case, with a final tally of 
20 cases reported between May and June 2026, with WHO declaring the end of the outbreak following 42 days without a new confirmed case
 — a strong indicator that even the highest-risk neighboring country topped out far below 100 cases despite expert alarm. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda
- [2026-06-30] Case-count-based studies for South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi never materialized into confirmed cases at all through late September 2026, despite modeled importation probabilities as high as 69.3% for South Sudan. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1473309926003208
- [2026-09-27] Other confirmed international cases remain single-digit and isolated (one in France, two medically evacuated Americans treated in Germany), none amounting to sustained local transmission chains. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads

BOTTOM LINE: Expert epidemiological models (Lancet ID, CDC/MMWR) flagged Uganda and South Sudan as high-importation-risk, and Africa CDC has formally listed 10 countries as "at risk," but the empirical track record undercuts alarm: Uganda's own outbreak — the single highest-probability spillover target — ended in August 2026 at only 20 cases, and no other country has recorded any sustained local transmission. Crowd forecasters (Metaculus) similarly assign low odds (~9%) even to a single confirmed case reaching US soil, suggesting expert and market sentiment leans strongly toward "No" for any non-DRC country crossing 100 cases in 2026.

NOT FOUND: No dedicated Polymarket, Kalshi, or Manifold market specifically tracking ">100 confirmed Bundibugyo cases outside DRC in 2026" was located; no Metaculus question with that exact threshold/country framing was found (only adjacent questions on total outbreak size and US soil importation).

### YES CASE
YES means: some country other than the DRC (e.g., South Sudan, the Central African Republic, or another neighbouring/importing state) records more than 100 confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus cases at some point during 2026, as reflected in the last 2026 WHO External Situation Report.

- [2026-09-25] The outbreak has newly reached Dungu health zone in Haut-Uélé, which the WHO explicitly flags as 
Dungu health zone in Haut-Uélé province, bordering South Sudan
, and Bulu health zone in the new province of Sud-Ubangi bordering CAR; WHO states this 
latest geographic expansion increases the risk of cross-border transmission
 (WHO DON618).

- [2026-08-28] WHO's own rapid risk assessment names South Sudan and CAR — not just Uganda — as the top importation-risk countries: 
Uganda, the Central African Republic and South Sudan are of particular concern for importation given their proximity, high population mobility and connectivity with areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo currently experiencing intense transmission... For the Central African Republic and South Sudan, these risks are further compounded by high humanitarian needs, population displacement, insecurity and underlying limitations in health-system capacity
 (WHO DON616).

- [2026-06-25] Peer-reviewed Lancet Infectious Diseases modelling projected South Sudan's 12-week importation probability at 69.3%, second only to Uganda's 94.2%, and explicitly recommends 
robust cross-border coordination for South Sudan requires urgent reinforcement of infection prevention and control, rapid response, and point of entry surveillance
 — a warning issued before the virus had even reached a South Sudan-bordering health zone, which it has now done as of September.

- [2026-08-14] CAR has already convened a formal cross-border consultation and deployed a 
mobile laboratory has been deployed in Obo, near the borders with the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan
 — evidence that CAR authorities themselves treat imminent importation as a live operational scenario, not a remote hypothetical (WHO AFRO).

- [2026-09-27] Africa CDC has now formally escalated its warning from the earlier Uganda/CAR/South Sudan trio to a 10-country list — 
Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Zambia
 — as the DRC total neared 8,000 cases, showing the risk assessment has broadened, not narrowed, over time (Standard Media/AFP).

- [2026-09-27] Unlike Uganda's contained 2026 outbreak, South Sudan and CAR have markedly weaker health-system capacity and are already experiencing severe internal displacement and insecurity, per WHO's own framing quoted above; if the virus establishes local transmission in Dungu's cross-border catchment (Western Equatoria, South Sudan) or Obo's catchment (south-eastern CAR), containment could plausibly take far longer than Uganda's 20-case, ~3-month contained episode, given fewer resources for the kind of rapid contact tracing that stopped Uganda's chain.

- [2026-09-29] The parent DRC outbreak itself is far from slowing: 
the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported a total of 8,067 confirmed cases, including 3,901 related deaths...This represents an increase of 78 new confirmed cases and 49 deaths since the previous report
, and contact-tracing coverage remains incomplete at 
74.7% of identified case contacts are under follow-up
 — meaning roughly a quarter of contacts are unmonitored, a persistent leak point for further cross-border seeding over the three remaining months of 2026 (ECDC, 29 Sept update).

- [2026-09-29] Wikipedia's continuously updated tracker independently corroborates that by early August this had become 
the fastest growing Ebola outbreak on record, as well as the second largest
 — an outbreak of this unprecedented speed and scale increases the absolute number of cross-border exposure events per unit time compared with any historical BDBV outbreak, raising the tail probability that at least one importation event seeds sustained (not just imported/isolated) transmission in a fragile neighbouring state before year-end.

- [2026-09-11] Local DRC officials in the newly-affected border province are themselves voicing alarm about regional spread: a Sud-Ubangi provincial official noted 
Our province borders Congo-Brazzaville and the Central African Republic. We fear it may spread regionally
 — direct, dated testimony from an official closest to the new frontier of spread (PBS/AP, ~11 Sept).

BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely path to YES is a spillover into South Sudan (via Dungu/Western Equatoria) or the Central African Republic (via Obo, near the new Bulu health zone), both of which WHO and Africa CDC now formally rank as top importation risks with weaker health-system capacity than Uganda; combined with the outbreak's still-active, record-fast growth and incomplete (74.7%) contact-tracing coverage in DRC, the structural preconditions for a >100-case spillover event are more elevated now than at any prior point in the outbreak, even though no such case has yet been confirmed in any country besides DRC.

NOT FOUND: No confirmed case of Bundibugyo virus has yet been reported in South Sudan, CAR, or any of the 10 at-risk countries named by Africa CDC as of the most recent search (through 29 Sept 2026); no quantitative modelled probability specifically for the >100-case threshold in a non-DRC country during 2026 was located.

### NO CASE
YES means: at least one country other than the DRC (e.g., Uganda, South Sudan, CAR, Rwanda, Kenya, or any importing country like France/Germany/US) confirms more than 100 total Bundibugyo ebolavirus cases at some point during 2026, as recorded in the last WHO External Situation Report published in 2026.

- [2026-09-25] The latest WHO Disease Outbreak News (DON618) attributes the entirety of the new case growth to internal DRC geographic expansion — two newly affected health zones (Bulu in Sud Ubangi, bordering CAR, and Dungu in Haut-Uélé, bordering South Sudan) — with WHO stating this only "increases the risk of cross-border transmission," a forward-looking risk statement, not a report of any actual case in a new country. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

- [2026-09-27] ECDC's near-real-time tracker (data to 26 Sept) breaks down the newest 78 confirmed cases entirely by DRC province — 
The 78 new cases have been reported from Ituri (57 cases), North Kivu (17 cases), Haut-Uélé (three cases), and Bas-Uélé (one case)
 — with zero cases attributed to Uganda or any other country in this update. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/ebola-outbreak-democratic-republic-congo-and-uganda

- [2026-09-27] Despite Africa CDC formally listing ten neighboring/regional countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Angola, Burundi, CAR, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Zambia) as "at risk," the same report notes zero confirmed cases in any of them and that 
the epidemiological situation in the DRC shows signs of improvement in some indicators, although transmission remains active
, undercutting the case for imminent regional breakout. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads

- [2026-09-29] Uganda's official outbreak was closed a full month ago (25 Aug) at a terminal count of only 20 cases; no source in the past 30 days reports Uganda reopening or recording a new case, meaning its running total remains frozen far below the 100 threshold with only ~3 months left in the resolution window.

- [2026-06-25] The Lancet Infectious Diseases stochastic model that assigned South Sudan a 69.3% "importation probability" and Rwanda 8.6% concluded these were 12-week-horizon single-event importation odds, not projections of case counts anywhere near 100; the same paper stresses 
Control measures within DR Congo remain the primary determinant of regional spillover risk
, meaning any non-DRC country's case count is capped by (and lags) DRC's own trajectory rather than growing independently. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(26)00320-8/fulltext

- [2026-06-04] Even at the point of peak alarm, the same model's confirmed Uganda case count (used as the calibration anchor) was only 19, and Uganda's importation probability of 94.2% converted into just one more case before the outbreak died out entirely — i.e., the single most "at-risk" country, with near-certainty odds of importation, still topped out at 20. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42349475/

- [2026-09-23] US CDC's own situation page, aligned with the DON618 data cutoff, states plainly that 
CDC is responding to an outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in remote areas of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). To date, no cases of Ebola disease have been confirmed in the United States because of this outbreak
, reinforcing that the only non-African cases (France, Germany-treated Americans) remain isolated single-digit imports with no domestic transmission anywhere. https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html

- [2026-09-25] The Africa CDC risk list itself is nearly unchanged from its original 24 May 2026 iteration (same 10 countries named then and now), indicating four-plus months of stagnant risk assessment with no country graduating from "at risk" to "affected" — a strong status-quo signal against any new country crossing even the first case, let alone 100. https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/health-science/article/2001558791/africa-cdc-warns-kenya-at-risk-as-drc-ebola-outbreak-spreads

- [2026-09-23] WHO's own historical framing in DON618 notes the only two prior BDBV outbreaks (Uganda 2007, DRC 2012) had case fatality ratios of 30% and 50% respectively, underscoring that even in the disease's only prior non-DRC occurrence (Uganda 2007), the confirmed case count topped out at 56 — well under 100 — supporting the base-rate argument that no historical precedent exists for a non-DRC country crossing this threshold. https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON618

BOTTOM LINE: Every primary WHO/ECDC data point through 27 September 2026 shows 100% of new case growth occurring within DRC's own provinces, Uganda's outbreak closed months ago at 20 cases, all other international cases remain single-digit imports with no local transmission, and the ten Africa-CDC-flagged "at-risk" countries have recorded zero confirmed cases four months after being named — collectively a strong, well-evidenced case for NO with roughly three months remaining.

NOT FOUND: No report of any confirmed case in South Sudan, CAR, Rwanda, Kenya, or any of the other eight Africa-CDC-listed at-risk countries at any point in 2026; no indication Uganda's outbreak has reopened since its 25 August closure.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources above show the resolving condition ALREADY met (or already impossible) as of today? If so, say which source and price it at the cap. Otherwise, name what would still have to happen and by when (the RESOLUTION date).
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market, treat its price as a strong, well-calibrated prior and name the specific evidence the market lacks whenever you land more than ~15 percentage points from it. A RELATED market (different deadline, threshold or resolution) is context only — do not anchor on it. If no market is listed, there is none on this question; do not assume one.
- **Anchor on the resolution source.** If the evidence includes a RESOLUTION SOURCE block, the question resolves on what THAT page shows, not on what the world does. If it says the resolving condition is already met, the correct probability is at the cap (0.97-0.98); if definitively unmet with no path left, 0.02-0.03. Otherwise its current state is your status quo, and the gap between the source and reality (lagging updates, different metric, classification rules) is a first-class risk to price explicitly, not a footnote at 5%.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (0) (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}