Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before 2027?

Current state as of 2026-09-21:

- [2026-09-01] 
The National Assembly sanctioned, in its second discussion by unanimity, the partial reform of the Organic Law of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ)
, a step tied to the government-opposition dialogue but not itself an electoral announcement. (asambleanacional.gob.ve)
- [2026-09-03] 
Interim President Delcy Rodríguez said the country will go to the polls only when it is "ready and prepared," a position aligned with Washington's stance, while emphasizing she is working "without rest" to create conditions to call the process
. No date was given. (curadas.com/cibercuba)
- [2026-09-02] 
Rodríguez, asked directly when a new presidential election would be called, said Venezuela has a Constitution and an electoral system, adding "I don't set the date"
. (lapatilla.com)
- [2026-09-14] A new nine-organization coalition, Alianza por Venezuela, called for "free, fair and verifiable" elections with María Corina Machado as candidate — an opposition/civil-society call, not an authority with legal power to convoke elections (per background already retrieved).
- [2026-09-20] 
Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno called for Venezuela to hold presidential elections soon, proposing July 24, 2027 (Simón Bolívar's birthday) as the date, while also calling interim President Delcy Rodríguez illegitimate
. This is a U.S. senator's proposal, not a Venezuelan legal act. (Yahoo/Fox)
- [2026-09-20] 
Multiple outlets note the July 24, 2027 date "appears in his statements as a senator's proposal, not as an electoral calendar officially announced"
. (El Espectador)
- [2026-09-20] 
María Corina Machado publicly endorsed Moreno's proposal on X, thanking him for his "leadership and clarity" on the importance of free presidential elections
, using the hashtag #SetTheDate. (El Diario NY)
- [2026-09-20] 
Moreno's proposal follows weeks after the Trump and Rodríguez governments announced an oil-sector development deal covering 17 oil fields with potential output of about 65 billion barrels
, underscoring the economic-first sequencing Washington and Caracas have pursued ahead of any vote. (KESQ)
- [2026-09-20] 
Moreno's proposal came as Trump prepared his first in-person meeting with Rodríguez since Maduro's January capture, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly; Rodríguez has said there will be elections when Venezuela is ready, but no official electoral calendar exists so far
. (El Diario NY)
- [2026-09-20] 
Trump had said earlier in September that Venezuela was "not yet ready" for an election, though he said one would take place "soon," while allies like Rep. Carlos Giménez have called Rodríguez illegitimate and demanded elections
. (Yahoo News)
- [2026-09-20] 
Institutionally, the National Electoral Council (CNE) would need to announce the call and publish a calendar including candidate registration, updating of the electoral registry, campaign period, audits, voting and proclamation of results
 — none of which has occurred. (El Venezolano)
- [2026-09-14] 
PSUV's Diosdado Cabello noted some sectors had shifted from requesting elections in November 2026 to floating other possibilities, and said they could move "toward 2028," while PSUV would be ready to win whenever elections are held
. (El Venezolano)

BOTTOM LINE: As of September 21, 2026, there is no official Venezuelan electoral announcement — the CNE has issued no convocation or calendar, and Rodríguez, the only figure with plausible authority to trigger a presidential vote, has repeatedly refused to set a date, tying it to vague "readiness." The visible momentum (Moreno's July 24, 2027 proposal, Machado's endorsement) is a U.S. Senate/opposition advocacy campaign, explicitly acknowledged even by sympathetic outlets as a "proposal," not an official calendar, and if adopted it would set a vote date in mid-2027 — likely satisfying the "voting before Jan 1, 2028" clause but requiring a formal announcement (by CNE or comparable authority) before Jan 1, 2027 to resolve Yes.

NOT FOUND: No CNE (National Electoral Council) statement or press release addressing a presidential election calendar; no official Executive/Rodríguez response accepting or rejecting the July 24, 2027 date; no outcome yet from the anticipated Trump-Rodríguez UNGA meeting (expected around Sept 22-23, 2026); no confirmation of TSJ magistrate selection completion, which the opposition treats as a precondition for an "electoral roadmap."

**Prediction market base rates (primary, most directly relevant):**
- [2026-09-20] The Polymarket "Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?" market prices a scheduling announcement by December 31, 2026 at only ~16-17%, with the "January 31" bucket (2027) essentially at 0%, implying the market sees an announcement inside 2026 as unlikely but the residual mass concentrated much later (market rules require the eventual vote to occur before 2030, and note that 
this market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, otherwise it will resolve to "No," and to qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030
).
- [2026-09-21] Kalshi's equivalent contract prices "before Jan 1, 2027" at just ~5%, "before Jun 1, 2027" at 36%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect any formal announcement (if it comes) to land in 2027, not by this question's Dec 31, 2026/Jan 1, 2027 resolution point.
- [2026-08-18] An algorithmic market-analysis site assessed that 
scheduling an election by December 31 appears highly improbable, since a new electoral council is only expected to be appointed by the end of 2026
, and noted 
this market's price has shown a consistent downward trend since its inception, opening at 23.0% on August 4 and declining to 16.0%, corresponding with mid-August reports confirming no presidential election date had been scheduled
.

**Comparable historical reference class (transitional governments after regime change/leader removal):**
- Tunisia (2011 uprising): 
it took more than three years after the uprising in 2011 to organize elections
 — an example of an "authoritarianism to democracy" transition that far outran initial promises.
- Egypt/Tunisia 2011: 
both countries opted originally for rapid movement toward elections, with Tunisia choosing July 14 as the election date and Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces pledging to complete the election process in six months
, yet 
the interim governments had little legitimacy as caretakers meant to organize quick elections, but elections were postponed in both countries and the transition stretched on
 — illustrating that even fast public commitments to a date routinely slip.
- Libya (2011 fall of Gaddafi): the National Transitional Council governed roughly ten months before holding a first (legislative, not presidential) election in mid-2012, and presidential elections still have not been consolidated 15 years later, with the latest roadmap (2026) targeting a vote only by 
simultaneous elections by 17 February 2027
, itself a repeatedly-delayed target.
- Sudan (2019 ouster of Bashir): 
the removal of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir in 2019 by the military, following months of popular demonstrations, marked the start of a two-year transition
, which was then further disrupted by a 2021 coup, pushing elections out for years beyond the original plan.
- General academic literature (International IDEA) treats Venezuela itself as a case study in an "authoritarianism to democratic governance" transition type, alongside Tunisia, Myanmar, and Burkina Faso, and notes 
international third parties have often favoured early post-conflict elections, which provide them with a convenient exit strategy, but the resulting rush to the polls can have detrimental effects on the transition
 — a caution against assuming fast announcements.
- Net pattern from this reference class: announced/target election dates in post-authoritarian or post-strongman-removal transitions are very frequently missed or pushed back (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Sudan all slipped by a year or more from original pledges), though initial round-number target dates ("six months," "one year," "two years") are commonly floated early by international backers — much like the Moreno/Machado July 2027 proposal here.

**Venezuela-specific expert/institutional estimates:**
- [2026-05] Opposition leader María Corina Machado's own estimate, as tracked by the Congressional Research Service, was that 
an election could occur in as soon as 40 weeks
 from that point (i.e., roughly February 2027) — itself an opposition-optimistic figure, not an official government commitment.
- [2026-04] Chatham House analysis argued that credible elections require extensive groundwork and that 
if fully implemented, these steps will take at least a year
 from when serious preparation begins — and as of April 2026 that preparation had barely started (
the momentum for change is fading as the interim government and the US avoid committing to election specifics
).
- [2026-08] Newsweek/CRS-adjacent reporting notes a poor institutional track record: 
previous rounds of dialogue from 2017 to 2024 ended without lasting agreements
, underscoring that Venezuelan government-opposition talks historically fail to produce timely, binding electoral commitments.
- [2026-09-20] The only concrete "date" now circulating (July 24, 2027, proposed by U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno and endorsed by Machado) is explicitly a political proposal from a foreign legislator and an opposition figure, not an announcement by a Venezuelan authority with legal power to call elections — the CNE/government has made no such announcement, and Rodríguez has repeatedly said elections will happen only "when the country is ready," with Trump agreeing.

BOTTOM LINE: Both the base-rate evidence from comparable post-authoritarian transitions (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Sudan — all of which missed early target dates by a year or more) and current prediction-market pricing (5–17% for an announcement by year-end 2026/Jan 1, 2027) point toward a low probability of Venezuela making a legally authoritative, dated election announcement before January 1, 2027; the institutional prerequisite (a reconstituted CNE) is not expected until late 2026 at the earliest, and the only concrete date floated (July 2027) so far comes from a US senator and opposition leader, not the government body with legal authority to call elections.

NOT FOUND: No official Venezuelan government (CNE, National Assembly, or presidency) statement setting a specific election date has been located; no confirmed appointment date for the new National Electoral Council magistrates; no direct historical statistic on "% of transitional governments that formally announce an election date within 12 months of a leadership change."

Key causal drivers determining whether Venezuela officially announces a presidential election (with named date, voting before 2028) before January 1, 2027:

**1. Who has legal authority to call an election: the CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral), chavista-controlled**
- Under Venezuelan law, only the National Electoral Council can formally convoke a presidential election. 
No convocatoria from the CNE for 2027 presidential elections nor a schedule setting a date for those elections has been found.
 
The CNE's own web portal remains inaccessible, and Venezuela Sin Filtro documented that cne.gob.ve had been offline for nearly a year, a restriction originating from the body itself.
 Its official social media has also gone dark. This body remains under Maduro-era chavista control and has given no indication of movement toward a presidential contest.

**2. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez's stance — deliberately non-committal**
- 
Trump praised Rodríguez as "doing a very, very good job" and said "Delcy wants it, but they're not ready yet," referring to elections.
 Rodríguez herself, per earlier reporting, has said elections will happen "when Venezuela is ready" without a timeline, and explicitly said "yo no fijo fecha" (I don't set a date), per DW reporting cited in Cotejo.info's fact-check.

**3. US position — sets the pace but resists a firm date, prioritizes institutional/economic "phases" first**
- 
Trump said on September 2, 2026, that Venezuela does not yet meet conditions to call elections, five days after announcing an oil deal granting Washington majority control over a fifth of the country's oil reserves, and did not specify conditions or set out any timetable.
 
Secretary of State Rubio said "We don't just want there to be an election... we want to make sure that it leads to a republic," with the goal being an enduring political system with elections held regularly.
 The White House has framed a three-phase process (stability, economic recovery, reconciliation) before elections, per the September 2 White House statement cited in fact-checks, with no fixed date.

**4. Judicial/institutional prerequisites (TSJ reform) — in progress but incomplete**
- 
The TSJ reform law was published in Gaceta Oficial Extraordinaria N.° 7.074 on September 15, 2026, entering into force immediately; it allows activation of the procedure for selecting new TSJ magistrates, but the Assembly must first form the nominations Committee and then evaluate candidates.
 
The nominating committee will grow from 21 to 23 members (11 legislators, 12 civil-society representatives) and will function for two years.
 This is a precondition opposition negotiators see as necessary before any credible electoral roadmap, and it is still mid-process, not complete.

**5. Political pressure/proposals for a date — growing but non-binding**
- 
Elections in Venezuela still have no official date, though political signals point to 2027 as the year with the greatest likelihood of a transitional presidential vote.
 On September 20, 2026, US Senator Bernie Moreno proposed July 24, 2027 (Bolívar's birthday) as an election date, endorsed by María Corina Machado and several US Congress members — but this remains a political proposal, not an official CNE convocation, and it targets a 2027 vote date, not an announcement necessarily occurring by end-2026.

BOTTOM LINE: All levers needed for a binding announcement (CNE convocation with a named date and legal authority) remain firmly with a chavista-controlled electoral council that is currently non-functional/opaque, while both Rodríguez's interim government and the Trump administration are actively resisting setting a firm date, and the prerequisite TSJ/judicial reform process is still incomplete; recent momentum (Moreno/Machado's July 2027 proposal) is advocacy, not an official convocation, making a legally valid election announcement before January 1, 2027 unlikely absent a rapid, currently unsignaled acceleration.

NOT FOUND: Any statement from the CNE itself (its portal and social media remain inactive) addressing a 2027 election; any official government or National Assembly decree naming a specific election date; confirmation of the "second cycle" of government-opposition talks concluding with an electoral timeline.

- [2026-09-20] Polymarket's "Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?" market (Dec 31, 2026 outcome) prices this question's core event at just 16%, down from an opening 23% on Aug 4, 2026, on 
$622,695 in total trading volume as of September 20, 2026, with "December 31" the leading outcome at 16%
. To count as Yes, 
the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030, and this market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within the timeframe, regardless of when the election itself is supposed to occur
 — a lower bar than the Metaculus-style question at hand.

- [2026-08-18] Octagon AI's model-based analysis of that same Polymarket market concluded 
scheduling an election by December 31 appears highly improbable, since a new electoral council is only expected appointed by the end of 2026, and Venezuela lacks a scheduled presidential election date amid a transitional period
. It noted 
the market's price has shown a consistent downward trend, opening at 23.0% on August 4 and declining to 16.0% by August 18
, with 
this decline corresponding to mid-August reports confirming that despite ongoing negotiations, no presidential election date had been scheduled
.

- [2026-08-18] The same Octagon report flagged a structural reason for skepticism: 
the technical picture is defined by a complete lack of trading volume, indicating an illiquid market with very low conviction from traders
 — meaning the 16% figure should be read as a soft, weakly-supported estimate rather than a robust consensus.

- [2026-08-18] Octagon's synthesis of institutional facts underpinning trader pessimism: 
a new National Electoral Council, responsible for scheduling elections, is only expected to be appointed by the end of 2026, making an earlier schedule highly improbable
, and separately that 
as of June 2026, the official CNE website is still offline
 (per Wikipedia's tracking of the ongoing institutional crisis).

- [2026-01-09] Kalshi's markets (data now stale, from early January 2026 shortly after Maduro's capture) had priced considerably higher odds than current Polymarket pricing: 
a 64% chance that Venezuela will hold another presidential election before June 1, 2027, a 47% chance it will be held before the start of next year, and a 26% chance the election will happen by September of this year
. Kalshi's companion market gave 
Rodríguez a 54% chance of lasting until at least the end of 2026, with a 12% chance opposition figure Edmundo González would take over, and a 20% chance María Corina Machado would gain power
. No more recent Kalshi update on this specific question was found, suggesting these odds may not reflect the current state of stalled negotiations.

- [2026-09-14] A new opposition umbrella, Alianza por Venezuela, publicly called for elections with Machado as its candidate — an advocacy position from within the opposition rather than an official government announcement, and thus does not itself move the "official announcement" bar this question requires.

- [2026-09-20] Multiple analysts/politicians — not official electoral bodies — floated a concrete date. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno publicly proposed July 24, 2027 (Simón Bolívar's birthday) as an election date, explicitly stating 
"We need to have elections in Venezuela... Obviously they aren't ready for elections today, but I think it's extremely important to set a date. I suggested July 24 of next year; that's Simón Bolívar's birthday"
. María Corina Machado endorsed this proposal via the hashtag #SetTheDate, and Venezuelan opposition figures such as Juan Pablo Guanipa and Vente Venezuela backed it, but Spanish-language reporting was explicit that 
the date appears in Moreno's declarations as a proposal by the senator, not as an electoral calendar officially announced
.

- [2026-09-03] Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, the person with the actual constitutional authority relevant to this question, stated only that 
Rodríguez's status as president also depends on when Venezuela will hold its next election
 and, per earlier reporting, that elections will occur only "when the country is ready," without giving a date — directly undercutting market/analyst optimism about a near-term formal announcement.

- [2026-08-18] Analysts note a structural gap between political rhetoric and formal capacity: 
arguments for "No" emphasize ongoing political instability, reports of the U.S. potentially ruling out elections, and the interim government's lack of a firm timeline tied to internal negotiations and reduced external pressures, with the market's consensus heavily leaning "No"
, even as some opposition voices suggest possible election windows.

- [2026-01-11] A now-closed, narrower Metaculus question ("Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?") resolved with a community forecast of roughly 15% chance among 94 forecasters, reflecting analyst skepticism about a near-term formal announcement dating back to January 2026 — consistent with the trajectory of later markets remaining low.

NOT FOUND: A live, actively-updated Metaculus question matching this exact "before 2027" framing with a current (September 2026) community probability; a current (post-August) Kalshi quote for the "will Venezuela hold a presidential election" series; any Manifold Markets question on this topic; any official confirmation that Rodríguez, the National Assembly, or a reconstituted CNE has set or is imminently expected to set a specific binding election date.

BOTTOM LINE: Markets and analysts converge on skepticism: Polymarket prices a formal 2026 scheduling announcement at only ~16% (down from 23% in August) on an illiquid, low-volume contract, and analyst commentary (Octagon) attributes this to the absence of a reconstituted CNE and no finalized timeline; the only concrete "date" circulating (July 24, 2027, from Sen. Moreno) is explicitly a political proposal endorsed by opposition figures, not an official government announcement, while Rodríguez and Trump both continue to say Venezuela is "not ready" — all pointing toward a fairly low probability that an official, dated announcement occurs before January 1, 2027.

**Most likely path to YES:** The US-backed political dialogue produces a reformed National Electoral Council (CNE) by the end of 2026, followed swiftly by an announcement of a specific presidential election date (most likely the July 24, 2027 date now being promoted), before the December 31, 2026 window closes.

Key evidentiary building blocks for this path:

- [2026-08-12] 
Venezuela's interim government, backed by the Trump administration, and an opposition faction led by Dinorah Figuera concluded a first round of political talks in Caracas, agreeing to renew the entire TSJ, launch a new nominations process, and establish a committee to reform the CNE ahead of future elections
. Source: jurist.org.
- [2026-09-01] 
Venezuela's National Assembly unanimously approved a reform to the Organic Law of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, expanding the Judicial Nominations Committee to 23 members with civil-society organizations holding a majority of seats, a body responsible for vetting candidates to the 32-seat TSJ
. This is a concrete institutional step negotiators frame as prerequisite to elections. Source: jurist.org.
- [2026-09-02] Per the same JURIST reporting, 
opposition negotiators have said they expect the talks to produce a reformed CNE by the end of 2026
 — precisely within the question's resolution window, which would remove the main institutional obstacle to naming a date.
- [2026-09-14] A new nine-organization coalition, Alianza por Venezuela, publicly called for "free, fair and verifiable" presidential elections with María Corina Machado as candidate, per Reuters reporting cited in the question background — showing organized domestic pressure for a dated election.
- [2026-09-20] U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno publicly proposed July 24, 2027 (Simón Bolívar's birthday) as the election date, explicitly framing setting a date now as necessary even while conceding Venezuela is "not ready for elections today."
- [2026-09-20] María Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning opposition leader with by far the highest polling support (consistently 55-78% in multiple 2026 polls per Meganalisis, AtlasIntel, and Hercon surveys tracked on Wikipedia's "Next Venezuelan presidential election" page), endorsed Moreno's proposal via the #SetTheDate hashtag, adding elite momentum behind a concrete date.
- [2026-09-20] Republican Congressman Carlos Giménez and other US lawmakers echoed the call for elections "as soon as possible," indicating bipartisan/Trump-administration-aligned US political pressure pushing Caracas toward naming a date.
- [2026-09-02] Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, while refusing to commit to a timeline, did not rule out elections and stated at a Miraflores press conference: 
"I don't set the date... There will be an electoral process, but when Venezuela is ready. And there will be one — without a doubt."
 This keeps the door open rather than closed.
- Historical precedent: Venezuela has a track record of announcing specific election dates relatively close to the actual vote once institutional/political conditions align — e.g., 
Elections council head Tibisay Lucena announced Monday, June 22, 2015 that the South American country will hold National Assembly elections on December 6
, only about 5.5 months' notice. A similar late-2026 announcement of a mid-2027 vote (e.g., July 24, 2027) would fit this pattern and would satisfy the resolution criteria (specific date named, voting scheduled before January 1, 2028).
- The oil/investment dimension adds an incentive: Rodríguez signed a major US oil agreement in September 2026 amid parallel electoral talks, suggesting Washington's economic engagement is bundled with the CNE/TSJ reform-election roadmap, giving both sides an incentive to formalize a date to unlock further economic and diplomatic benefits.

BOTTOM LINE: If the CNE reform negotiators say they expect by year-end 2026 is completed on schedule, and the political/US momentum around the July 24, 2027 date (backed by Machado, US senators, and a new nine-party opposition coalition) converts from a "proposal" into a formal act by an authority with legal power (Rodríguez, the CNE, or the National Assembly), a YES resolution is plausible before December 31, 2026 — the pieces (institutional reform, coalesced opposition demand, a specific proposed date, and US pressure) are aligning simultaneously in September 2026.

NOT FOUND: No official government or CNE statement setting a binding election date has yet been issued as of September 21, 2026 (all elements found are proposals, endorsements, or reform steps, not a formal legal announcement); could not find a finalized CNE reform completion date or a formal government response accepting/rejecting the July 24, 2027 proposal.

- [2026-09-03] Interim President Delcy Rodríguez stated that 
Trump praised Venezuelan Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, saying she was "doing a very, very good job" and was "very highly respected," and said "Delcy wants it, but they're not ready yet," referring to elections
. Rodríguez herself said an election will happen only when the country is ready, and explicitly stated the authority to set the date does not rest with her personally — pointing the decision toward Venezuela's electoral institutions (CNE), not an interim president's fiat. (Hürriyet, 2026-09-03)

- [2026-09-20] Trump himself, ahead of meeting Rodríguez at UNGA, again declined to give any timeline: 
Trump is now saying the country is not ready for elections yet, without giving a specific timeline for when it will be
. This is the single most authoritative U.S. signal that no near-term convocation is imminent. (NBC Miami, 2026-09-20)

- [2026-09-20/21] The only "date" in circulation — July 24, 2027 — comes not from any Venezuelan authority but from U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno, an informal Trump adviser on Latin America. Multiple outlets stress its non-official status: 
the date appears in his statements as a senator's proposal, not as an electoral calendar officially announced, and his proposal is not equivalent to an official call for elections
. Even backers concede the country "is not ready today" (
the senator acknowledged that the country is not currently prepared to vote, but insisted on the importance of setting a calendar... "Obviously, they are not ready for elections today, but I think it is extremely important to set a date"
).

- [2026-09-13] Reporting on the negotiated TSJ (Supreme Court) reform shows the institutional prerequisites for any credible electoral call remain unresolved. Analysts note 
the new TSJ law does not guarantee a depoliticized high court whose members have the best credentials, and only changes one article of the law
, and one negotiator warned 
the AN president (Delcy Rodríguez's brother) is keeping the Parliament effectively paralyzed on this process, with a PSUV supermajority (256 of 284 deputies)
 controlling the outcome.

- [2026-09-13] A key Venezuelan opposition figure argued that a functioning, independent CNE — the body constitutionally responsible for actually calling elections — is still a step behind even the TSJ reform: 
"Having a new TSJ is more important right now than electing a new National Electoral Council (CNE)... but not with a TSJ like today's that annuls CNE decisions, even the will of Venezuelans"
, per opposition leader Capriles.

- [2026-09-13] An analyst quoted in the same report was skeptical of even the judicial-reform timeline, let alone an election date: 
Sucre "is not very convinced that by November Venezuela will have a new TSJ," and even flagged that the government may not want an independent TSJ too soon "because that accelerates the timelines for a presidential election"
 — direct evidence of chavista incentive to slow-walk, not accelerate, any official announcement.

- [2026-09-17] Opposition's own internally stated goal is merely to "have a new CNE before December 2026" — a precondition, not an election announcement itself, and even that target is aspirational rather than confirmed by any legal act (LaPatilla, 2026-09-17 reporting, corroborated by other dialogue coverage).

- [2026-09-20] Even Moreno's push is paired with attacks on Rodríguez's legitimacy: 
Moreno called for Venezuela to hold elections soon and warned that Rodriguez should not be viewed as a legitimate leader, urging caution as Trump prepared to meet Rodriguez
 — indicating friction inside the Trump camp itself rather than a united push toward a near-term formal announcement.

- [2026-08-27/09-01] The TSJ reform passed unanimously in the National Assembly is explicitly a precursor step, not an election announcement: 
the reform reconfigures the Judicial Nominations Committee, giving civil society a majority of 12 seats versus 11 for lawmakers, establishing the roadmap for the total renewal of the 32 magistrates
 — magistrates who must be seated before any CNE renewal or election calendar can proceed on the chavista-controlled legal track.

- [2026-09-03] No CNE convocation exists to date; historically (see 2024 precedent), Venezuelan presidential elections are called by the CNE with published registration/campaign schedules, a step that per all September reporting has not occurred, and Rodríguez's own statements confirm no calendar has been set.

BOTTOM LINE: As of September 21, 2026, no Venezuelan authority with legal power to call elections — the CNE — has issued any convocation; the only "date" (July 24, 2027) is an unofficial U.S. senator's proposal, explicitly disclaimed as non-binding by multiple outlets; both Rodríguez and Trump have publicly said the country is "not ready" with no timeline; and the prerequisite TSJ/CNE renovation process is bogged down in PSUV-controlled procedural steps that one analyst says the government may deliberately slow to delay elections — all pointing toward NO by the January 1, 2027 resolution deadline.

NOT FOUND: No official CNE statement or Gaceta Oficial publication announcing any electoral schedule; no statement from Delcy Rodríguez or the National Assembly formally adopting the July 24, 2027 (or any other) date as a binding legal call; no evidence the "Alianza por Venezuela" coalition's September 14 call carries legal authority to convene elections.

11 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-09-20] Venezuelan Opposition Leaders Back Proposal for July 2027 Presidential Elections
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/juan-pablo-guanipa-fecha-de-las-presidenciales-es-un-paso-determinante-para-reconstruir-nuestro-pais/
  - On September 20, 2026, Venezuelan opposition leader and former political prisoner Juan Pablo Guanipa publicly supported U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno's proposal to set July 24, 2027, as the date for Venezuela's next presidential elections.
  - The date coincides with the birthday of Simón Bolívar.
  - Guanipa, speaking on X, stated, 'Venezuelans deserve the opportunity to rebuild our country.
  - And we will.
  - The date for presidential elections is a decisive step.' The proposal aims to facilitate the political transition following the departure of Nicolás Maduro from power after a U.S. military operation on January 3, 2026.
  - The plan also received support from Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, who thanked Moreno for defending free elections.
  - However, the article notes that as of the publication date, July 24, 2027, remains a political proposal and not an official electoral call, with discussions ongoing among various sectors regarding the transition.

[2026-09-20] Venezuela Opposition Leader Backs July 2027 Election Proposal
Caracol Radio — https://caracol.com.co/2026/09/20/maria-corina-machado-respalda-propuesta-de-fijar-el-24-de-julio-de-2027-para-elecciones-en-venezuela/
  - On September 20, 2026, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado endorsed a proposal by U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno to set July 24, 2027, as the date for Venezuela's next presidential elections.
  - The date was chosen to coincide with the birthday of Simón Bolívar.
  - Machado used the hashtag #SetTheDate to support the call for free and fair elections.
  - Moreno stated that while Venezuela is not ready for elections today, establishing a date is crucial for planning.
  - The Venezuelan party Vente Venezuela also called for reserving this date.
  - Currently, no official election calendar has been announced, and discussions are ongoing between the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez and opposition sectors, though Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia are not directly involved in these talks.

[2026-09-20] US Lawmakers Push for Venezuela Elections by July 2027 Under Trump Leadership
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/carlos-gimenez-pidio-elecciones-libres-en-venezuela-lo-antes-posible/
  - On Sunday, September 20, 2026, Republican Congressman Carlos Giménez called for 'free and fair elections' in Venezuela 'as soon as possible' in response to a proposal by Senator Bernie Moreno to set the date for presidential elections at July 24, 2027.
  - According to a post on X, Giménez wrote 'Well said, Senator Moreno!' and supported the plan, claiming that President Donald Trump 'has changed the course of history in the Western Hemisphere' and 'has given the people of Venezuela a historic opportunity to recover their country.' Senator Moreno, who proposed the July 24, 2027 date to coincide with the birth anniversary of Simón Bolívar, stated in a post that 'just as Simón Bolívar liberated Venezuela nearly 200 years ago, President Trump has liberated Venezuela from dictatorship.' Moreno linked the proposal to a recently announced oil agreement between Washington and Caracas, asserting that free and fair elections are necessary to complete the democratic transition.
  - Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado also backed Moreno's proposal, stating that 'free and fair elections remain essential to complete the democratic transition, and under the firm leadership of President Trump we will achieve it.'.

[2026-09-20] María Corina Machado Endorses Bernie Moreno's Call for July 2027 Venezuela Elections
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/maria-corina-machado-respaldo-a-bernie-moreno-y-pidio-fijar-fecha-para-las-elecciones-en-venezuela/
  - On Sunday, September 20, 2026, opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado publicly endorsed Republican Senator Bernie Moreno's proposal to set July 24, 2027, as the date for presidential elections in Venezuela.
  - Machado, speaking via her X account, thanked Moreno for his 'leadership and clarity' regarding the critical need for free elections.
  - She argued that 'a democratic Venezuela is essential not only for the stability of our hemisphere but also for the strategic national security interests of the United States.' Machado stated that Venezuelans are ready to build a 'free, peaceful, and prosperous nation' and become 'the strongest ally of the United States,' but emphasized that this future must be based on the 'voice and sovereign will of the people.' She concluded her message with the hashtag #SetTheDate.
  - Earlier that day, Senator Moreno had publicly proposed the July 24, 2027 date, noting it coincides with the birthday of Liberator Simón Bolívar, and defended setting a concrete date as a necessary step in Venezuela's political transition process.

[2026-09-20] Senator Bernie Moreno Proposes July 24, 2027 Election Date in Venezuela to Honor Simón Bolívar
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/bernie-moreno-propuso-elecciones-en-venezuela-el-dia-del-natalicio-de-simon-bolivar-video/
  - Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, in an interview with Fox News published on September 20, 2026, proposed that Venezuela hold presidential elections on July 24, 2027, coinciding with the birth anniversary of Simón Bolívar.
  - Moreno stated, 'We need elections in Venezuela.
  - Obviously, they are not ready for elections today, but I think it is extremely important to set a date.' He suggested the specific date of July 24, 2027, to honor Bolívar, whom he described as 'the liberator of Venezuela and Latin America,' noting that previous elections had coincided with the birthday of the late President Hugo Chávez.
  - During the interview, Moreno referred to US President Donald Trump as the 'modern liberator of Venezuela,' a phrase also used by opposition leader María Corina Machado.
  - When asked about Machado's potential return to Venezuela, Moreno responded that she should return when she deems it appropriate, stating, 'She is a free person.'.

[2026-09-03] Venezuela's Interim President Rodriguez Announces Elections Will Happen When Country is Ready
Hürriyet — https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/venezuelanin-gecici-baskanindan-secim-aciklamasi-43294101
  - According to Venezuelan Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, speaking at a press conference at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on September 3, 2026, elections will take place in Venezuela once the country is fully prepared.
  - Rodriguez stated she has worked 'day and night' since assuming office on January 5, 2026, to ensure the necessary conditions are met, asserting that 'an election will happen, but when the country is ready.' She emphasized that the authority to set the election date does not lie with her and cited the existence of a functioning constitution and democratic order.
  - Rodriguez also highlighted her intensive diplomatic efforts to restore democratic peace and lift international sanctions.
  - This statement follows conflicting reports regarding the country's stability; U.S. President Donald Trump had previously claimed Venezuela is 'not yet ready' for elections and requires more time.
  - Additionally, following explosions and aircraft sounds reported in Caracas on January 3, 2026, the Venezuelan government accused the U.S. of attacking civilian and military facilities.
  - Former U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that charges including 'drug trafficking, cocaine smuggling, and possessing machine guns and destructive devices against the U.S.' had been filed against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, though Maduro's status remains a point of contention in the reporting.

[2026-09-02] Venezuela's Acting President Delcy Rodríguez Announces Elections Will Occur When Nation is 'Prepared'
Caracol Radio — https://caracol.com.co/2026/09/02/delcy-rodriguez-anuncia-elecciones-cuando-venezuela-este-preparada/
  - Delcy Rodríguez, the acting president of Venezuela, announced that elections will take place in the country once it is 'prepared' for them.
  - Speaking during a press conference in Caracas alongside U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Rodríguez stated she has worked 'without rest' to ensure the nation is ready for the electoral process. 'There will be an electoral process, but under the conditions in which Venezuela is prepared,' she said.
  - This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump had previously indicated that while Rodríguez 'wants' elections, the country is not yet ready, though he hopes they occur 'soon.' The article notes a significant shift in U.S.-Venezuela relations, citing a claim that Nicolás Maduro was captured by the U.S. in January 2026, leading to the restoration of diplomatic ties and a new agreement granting the U.S. control over 17 oil fields, which hold approximately one-fifth of Venezuela's crude reserves.
  - The Trump administration maintains that the economy must be revitalized through this agreement before elections can be held, a move critics argue prioritizes oil access over democratization.

[2026-06-19] Venezuela Elections Postponed Until 2028 Amid Economic Adjustment and US Control (opinion)
El Nacional — https://www.elnacional.com/columnas/2026/06/por-que-en-venezuela-no-habra-elecciones/
  - According to the article published in El Nacional on June 19, 2026, Venezuela will not hold presidential elections in 2027, with the possibility of postponement until 2028.
  - This delay is attributed to the need to complete a difficult economic adjustment program and the second phase of recovery before the Trump administration declares the process complete.
  - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated to Fox News that while he does not want to wait too long for a transition, he also does not want to act too quickly to avoid collapse.
  - Key figures such as María Elvira Salazar and Republican congressmen, who previously pressured for elections, now accept the postponement.
  - The article argues that the economic recovery stage is complex and may last over two years, involving measures like public utility tariff adjustments, elimination of fuel subsidies, privatization of state enterprises, and public spending cuts, which typically cause social unrest.
  - The United States is managing Venezuela's reintegration into the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to supervise the economic adjustment program.
  - The article claims that holding elections before this 'dirty work' is done would leave the new government with an unsanitized economy and a discontented society.
  - María Corina Machado, who previously demanded the 2024 election results be honored, has now announced she will be a presidential candidate, preferring the current Chavismo government to bear the political cost of the economic adjustments.
  - The article suggests the true 'red line' for the official government is the threat of Machado's return, noting the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) has legally enabled Delcy Rodríguez to complete the constitutional term until 2030.
  - The text asserts that US Executive Order 14373 and OFAC licenses act as a filter to align Venezuela's oil industry with US geopolitical interests, a control mechanism that could persist even after a new government is elected.

[2026-06-02] Venezuela Opposition Deputy Predicts 2027 Presidential Elections Under New Electoral Council
El Nacional — https://www.elnacional.com/2026/06/diputada-gladis-socorro-preve-elecciones-presidenciales-entre-marzo-y-abril-de-2027/
  - Opposition National Assembly Deputy Gladis Socorro stated on Tuesday that presidential elections in Venezuela could take place between March and April 2027, contingent on the leadership of a special ad hoc National Electoral Council (CNE).
  - Socorro, speaking in a video on her social media, noted that 'three-way coordinations' are underway between the ruling party and the opposition emerging from the October 22, 2023 primaries, with a United States delegation closely overseeing the plan.
  - She explicitly ruled out the current CNE led by Elvis Amoroso and his rectors, asserting that work is already underway to determine new leaders for the Electoral Power.
  - Socorro calculated that from June 2 (the date of her statement) to April 18, 2027, there are exactly 320 days remaining.
  - While the realization of elections is part of a three-phase plan established by U.S. President Donald Trump for Venezuela, no official date or timeline has been released.
  - This plan outlines a transition following the alleged capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which would install Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president.
  - The plan's first phase focuses on stabilization and humanitarian crisis management, the second on economic reconstruction with a focus on the energy sector, and the final phase aims to institutionalize democracy through competitive and free general elections.

[2026-05-24] María Corina Machado Announces 2026 Presidential Candidacy for Venezuela
Radio Mitre ✋🏽🧼🤚🏽 — https://radiomitre.cienradios.com/mundo/maria-corina-machado-anuncio-que-sera-candidata-a-presidenta-de-venezuela-en-2026/
  - Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado announced at a summit of opposition leaders in Panama City that she will be a candidate for president in 2026, stating, 'I will be a candidate, but there may be others, of course.' Machado, who has been in exile since December and spent nearly eleven months in clandestinity within Venezuela, confirmed she will return to Venezuela before the end of 2026.
  - Her international profile was bolstered when she traveled to Norway to receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
  - The opposition coalition aims to establish a roadmap for free, fair, and transparent presidential elections, though no specific electoral calendar has been set yet.
  - Advisors estimate that seven to nine months of work will be required to build the necessary technical and logistical framework for international oversight.
  - This political urgency follows the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which reconfigured the geopolitical landscape.
  - Following this event, the U.S. administration of Donald Trump began formally backing interim president Delcy Rodríguez, who has promoted opening the hydrocarbon sector to North American investments.
  - Although the Venezuelan Constitution mandates that presidential elections be called within 30 days of a 'total absence' declaration by the head of state, Machado emphasized that structural reforms—such as appointing neutral electoral authorities and updating the voter registry to allow citizens to vote abroad—must be prioritized before setting an election date.

[2026-05-23] Machado Confirms Presidential Candidacy in Venezuela for Future Free Elections
laverdad.com — https://laverdad.com/machado-afirma-que-sera-candidata-en-unas-elecciones-limpias-y-libres/
  - María Corina Machado, the opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, announced on Saturday in Panama that she will run for president in future 'clean and free' elections in Venezuela, aligning with a three-phase plan promoted by the United States.
  - Speaking at a press conference, Machado emphasized the need for a democratic process with guarantees, stating, 'I will be a candidate, but there could be others.
  - I would love to compete with everyone.' She highlighted that nearly 40% of citizens were excluded from the July 28, 2024 presidential elections, including millions of unregistered migrants.
  - Machado called for the appointment of a new, independent National Electoral Council, describing the current system as 'corrupt, fraudulent, and unjust.' While avoiding a specific date, she noted elections could occur in seven to nine months under the current system but insisted on prioritizing conditions for full participation.
  - She thanked U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for his 'stabilization, recovery, and transition with election' plan, asserting that Venezuela is dismantling its repressive system and transforming economically.
  - Machado expressed confidence that she will return to Venezuela before the end of 2026 to coordinate with Washington and prepare for the fourth phase of national reconstruction.

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $130.8K — different deadline (Dec 31 2026 vs before 2027, essentially same but 'scheduled' vs 'announce'

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (FAILED)
  Error: Unknown

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2026 United States intervention in Venezuela:
  On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The US operation, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, began around 2 a.m. local time, when explosions were observed. The US Armed Forces bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela to suppress air defenses as an apprehension force attacked Maduro's compound in Caracas. Approximately 80 people, including Venezuelan and Cuban military and civilians, died and seven American soldiers were wounded. Maduro and Flores were transported to New York City by US forces and were indicted on drug trafficking charges to which Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty.

  Delcy Rodríguez:
  Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez is a Venezuelan lawyer, politician, and diplomat who has been interim president of Venezuela since 2026, following the United States intervention in Venezuela. She is the first woman in Venezuelan history to perform the duties of the presidency. A member of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), Rodríguez served as the 24th vice president under Nicolás Maduro's government since 2018.

  National Electoral Council (Venezuela):
  The National Electoral Council is the head of one of the five branches of government of Venezuela under its 1999 constitution. It is the institution that has the responsibility of overseeing and guaranteeing the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels. The creation of the CNE was ratified in Venezuela's 1999 constitutional referendum. Following the election of Nicolás Maduro into the presidency, the CNE has been described, by the president's opponents, as being pro-Maduro.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $130.8K — different deadline (Dec 31 2026 vs before 2027, essentially same but 'scheduled' vs 'announce'

You are an elite superforecaster. Read ALL the research below — the raw tool outputs, the news bundle and the six research reports — and give one calibrated probability for this Metaculus binary question.

## Question
Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before 2027?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Since [the US capture of Nicolás Maduro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_intervention_in_Venezuela) in January 2026 and Delcy Rodríguez's subsequent interim Venezuelean presidency there has been speculation as to when the next presidential election will be held.

On August 27, 2026, [the Venezuelan National Assembly unanimously approved](https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-27/la-asamblea-venezolana-acelera-la-reforma-del-supremo-promovida-por-estados-unidos.html), in its first reading, a [partial reform of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) Law](https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-13/el-chavismo-y-la-oposicion-venezolana-acuerdan-renovar-a-todos-los-magistrados-del-supremo.html "https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-13/el-chavismo-y-la-oposicion-venezolana-acuerdan-renovar-a-todos-los-magistrados-del-supremo.html"). This legislative step is part of the ongoing political dialogue agreements between the Venezuelan government and opposition, under the support and guidance of the US government. This process aims to form a new high court, a step the opposition considers essential for restoring the country's institutions and establishing an electoral roadmap.

In early September 2026, [Rodríguez stated ](https://www.cubaheadlines.com/articles/339452)her nation would hold elections when "ready," without providing a specific timeline. [US President Trump agreed with this](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/world/trump-says-venezuela-not-ready-yet-for-elections-3227329).

On September 14, [a new coalition](https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/opposition-group-calls-for-presidential-election-in-venezuela-with-maria-corina-machado-as-candidate/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX09XRUZWQzcwMDE2MTI5OTIwMDE), called Alianza por Venezuela, consisting of nine political and social organizations, called for "free, fair and verifiable" presidential elections, with Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado to serve as its candidate.

## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, Venezuela officially announces a new presidential election. In order to count, the announcement must be made by a person or entity with the legal authority to do so, the announcement must name a specific election date, and voting must be scheduled to take place before January 1, 2028. 

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (FAILED)
  Error: Unknown

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  2026 United States intervention in Venezuela:
  On 3 January 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela and captured incumbent Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The US operation, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, began around 2 a.m. local time, when explosions were observed. The US Armed Forces bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela to suppress air defenses as an apprehension force attacked Maduro's compound in Caracas. Approximately 80 people, including Venezuelan and Cuban military and civilians, died and seven American soldiers were wounded. Maduro and Flores were transported to New York City by US forces and were indicted on drug trafficking charges to which Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty.

  Delcy Rodríguez:
  Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez is a Venezuelan lawyer, politician, and diplomat who has been interim president of Venezuela since 2026, following the United States intervention in Venezuela. She is the first woman in Venezuelan history to perform the duties of the presidency. A member of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), Rodríguez served as the 24th vice president under Nicolás Maduro's government since 2018.

  National Electoral Council (Venezuela):
  The National Electoral Council is the head of one of the five branches of government of Venezuela under its 1999 constitution. It is the institution that has the responsibility of overseeing and guaranteeing the transparency of all elections and referendums in Venezuela at the local, regional, and national levels. The creation of the CNE was ratified in Venezuela's 1999 constitutional referendum. Following the election of Nicolás Maduro into the presidency, the CNE has been described, by the president's opponents, as being pro-Maduro.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $130.8K — different deadline (Dec 31 2026 vs before 2027, essentially same but 'scheduled' vs 'announce'

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-09-21; forecasting closes 2026-12-31; resolves 2027-01-01. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
11 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-09-20] Venezuelan Opposition Leaders Back Proposal for July 2027 Presidential Elections
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/juan-pablo-guanipa-fecha-de-las-presidenciales-es-un-paso-determinante-para-reconstruir-nuestro-pais/
  - On September 20, 2026, Venezuelan opposition leader and former political prisoner Juan Pablo Guanipa publicly supported U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno's proposal to set July 24, 2027, as the date for Venezuela's next presidential elections.
  - The date coincides with the birthday of Simón Bolívar.
  - Guanipa, speaking on X, stated, 'Venezuelans deserve the opportunity to rebuild our country.
  - And we will.
  - The date for presidential elections is a decisive step.' The proposal aims to facilitate the political transition following the departure of Nicolás Maduro from power after a U.S. military operation on January 3, 2026.
  - The plan also received support from Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, who thanked Moreno for defending free elections.
  - However, the article notes that as of the publication date, July 24, 2027, remains a political proposal and not an official electoral call, with discussions ongoing among various sectors regarding the transition.

[2026-09-20] Venezuela Opposition Leader Backs July 2027 Election Proposal
Caracol Radio — https://caracol.com.co/2026/09/20/maria-corina-machado-respalda-propuesta-de-fijar-el-24-de-julio-de-2027-para-elecciones-en-venezuela/
  - On September 20, 2026, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado endorsed a proposal by U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno to set July 24, 2027, as the date for Venezuela's next presidential elections.
  - The date was chosen to coincide with the birthday of Simón Bolívar.
  - Machado used the hashtag #SetTheDate to support the call for free and fair elections.
  - Moreno stated that while Venezuela is not ready for elections today, establishing a date is crucial for planning.
  - The Venezuelan party Vente Venezuela also called for reserving this date.
  - Currently, no official election calendar has been announced, and discussions are ongoing between the interim government of Delcy Rodríguez and opposition sectors, though Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia are not directly involved in these talks.

[2026-09-20] US Lawmakers Push for Venezuela Elections by July 2027 Under Trump Leadership
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/carlos-gimenez-pidio-elecciones-libres-en-venezuela-lo-antes-posible/
  - On Sunday, September 20, 2026, Republican Congressman Carlos Giménez called for 'free and fair elections' in Venezuela 'as soon as possible' in response to a proposal by Senator Bernie Moreno to set the date for presidential elections at July 24, 2027.
  - According to a post on X, Giménez wrote 'Well said, Senator Moreno!' and supported the plan, claiming that President Donald Trump 'has changed the course of history in the Western Hemisphere' and 'has given the people of Venezuela a historic opportunity to recover their country.' Senator Moreno, who proposed the July 24, 2027 date to coincide with the birth anniversary of Simón Bolívar, stated in a post that 'just as Simón Bolívar liberated Venezuela nearly 200 years ago, President Trump has liberated Venezuela from dictatorship.' Moreno linked the proposal to a recently announced oil agreement between Washington and Caracas, asserting that free and fair elections are necessary to complete the democratic transition.
  - Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado also backed Moreno's proposal, stating that 'free and fair elections remain essential to complete the democratic transition, and under the firm leadership of President Trump we will achieve it.'.

[2026-09-20] María Corina Machado Endorses Bernie Moreno's Call for July 2027 Venezuela Elections
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/maria-corina-machado-respaldo-a-bernie-moreno-y-pidio-fijar-fecha-para-las-elecciones-en-venezuela/
  - On Sunday, September 20, 2026, opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado publicly endorsed Republican Senator Bernie Moreno's proposal to set July 24, 2027, as the date for presidential elections in Venezuela.
  - Machado, speaking via her X account, thanked Moreno for his 'leadership and clarity' regarding the critical need for free elections.
  - She argued that 'a democratic Venezuela is essential not only for the stability of our hemisphere but also for the strategic national security interests of the United States.' Machado stated that Venezuelans are ready to build a 'free, peaceful, and prosperous nation' and become 'the strongest ally of the United States,' but emphasized that this future must be based on the 'voice and sovereign will of the people.' She concluded her message with the hashtag #SetTheDate.
  - Earlier that day, Senator Moreno had publicly proposed the July 24, 2027 date, noting it coincides with the birthday of Liberator Simón Bolívar, and defended setting a concrete date as a necessary step in Venezuela's political transition process.

[2026-09-20] Senator Bernie Moreno Proposes July 24, 2027 Election Date in Venezuela to Honor Simón Bolívar
LaPatilla.com — https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/20/bernie-moreno-propuso-elecciones-en-venezuela-el-dia-del-natalicio-de-simon-bolivar-video/
  - Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, in an interview with Fox News published on September 20, 2026, proposed that Venezuela hold presidential elections on July 24, 2027, coinciding with the birth anniversary of Simón Bolívar.
  - Moreno stated, 'We need elections in Venezuela.
  - Obviously, they are not ready for elections today, but I think it is extremely important to set a date.' He suggested the specific date of July 24, 2027, to honor Bolívar, whom he described as 'the liberator of Venezuela and Latin America,' noting that previous elections had coincided with the birthday of the late President Hugo Chávez.
  - During the interview, Moreno referred to US President Donald Trump as the 'modern liberator of Venezuela,' a phrase also used by opposition leader María Corina Machado.
  - When asked about Machado's potential return to Venezuela, Moreno responded that she should return when she deems it appropriate, stating, 'She is a free person.'.

[2026-09-03] Venezuela's Interim President Rodriguez Announces Elections Will Happen When Country is Ready
Hürriyet — https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/venezuelanin-gecici-baskanindan-secim-aciklamasi-43294101
  - According to Venezuelan Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, speaking at a press conference at the Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on September 3, 2026, elections will take place in Venezuela once the country is fully prepared.
  - Rodriguez stated she has worked 'day and night' since assuming office on January 5, 2026, to ensure the necessary conditions are met, asserting that 'an election will happen, but when the country is ready.' She emphasized that the authority to set the election date does not lie with her and cited the existence of a functioning constitution and democratic order.
  - Rodriguez also highlighted her intensive diplomatic efforts to restore democratic peace and lift international sanctions.
  - This statement follows conflicting reports regarding the country's stability; U.S. President Donald Trump had previously claimed Venezuela is 'not yet ready' for elections and requires more time.
  - Additionally, following explosions and aircraft sounds reported in Caracas on January 3, 2026, the Venezuelan government accused the U.S. of attacking civilian and military facilities.
  - Former U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that charges including 'drug trafficking, cocaine smuggling, and possessing machine guns and destructive devices against the U.S.' had been filed against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, though Maduro's status remains a point of contention in the reporting.

[2026-09-02] Venezuela's Acting President Delcy Rodríguez Announces Elections Will Occur When Nation is 'Prepared'
Caracol Radio — https://caracol.com.co/2026/09/02/delcy-rodriguez-anuncia-elecciones-cuando-venezuela-este-preparada/
  - Delcy Rodríguez, the acting president of Venezuela, announced that elections will take place in the country once it is 'prepared' for them.
  - Speaking during a press conference in Caracas alongside U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Rodríguez stated she has worked 'without rest' to ensure the nation is ready for the electoral process. 'There will be an electoral process, but under the conditions in which Venezuela is prepared,' she said.
  - This comes after U.S. President Donald Trump had previously indicated that while Rodríguez 'wants' elections, the country is not yet ready, though he hopes they occur 'soon.' The article notes a significant shift in U.S.-Venezuela relations, citing a claim that Nicolás Maduro was captured by the U.S. in January 2026, leading to the restoration of diplomatic ties and a new agreement granting the U.S. control over 17 oil fields, which hold approximately one-fifth of Venezuela's crude reserves.
  - The Trump administration maintains that the economy must be revitalized through this agreement before elections can be held, a move critics argue prioritizes oil access over democratization.

[2026-06-19] Venezuela Elections Postponed Until 2028 Amid Economic Adjustment and US Control (opinion)
El Nacional — https://www.elnacional.com/columnas/2026/06/por-que-en-venezuela-no-habra-elecciones/
  - According to the article published in El Nacional on June 19, 2026, Venezuela will not hold presidential elections in 2027, with the possibility of postponement until 2028.
  - This delay is attributed to the need to complete a difficult economic adjustment program and the second phase of recovery before the Trump administration declares the process complete.
  - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated to Fox News that while he does not want to wait too long for a transition, he also does not want to act too quickly to avoid collapse.
  - Key figures such as María Elvira Salazar and Republican congressmen, who previously pressured for elections, now accept the postponement.
  - The article argues that the economic recovery stage is complex and may last over two years, involving measures like public utility tariff adjustments, elimination of fuel subsidies, privatization of state enterprises, and public spending cuts, which typically cause social unrest.
  - The United States is managing Venezuela's reintegration into the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to supervise the economic adjustment program.
  - The article claims that holding elections before this 'dirty work' is done would leave the new government with an unsanitized economy and a discontented society.
  - María Corina Machado, who previously demanded the 2024 election results be honored, has now announced she will be a presidential candidate, preferring the current Chavismo government to bear the political cost of the economic adjustments.
  - The article suggests the true 'red line' for the official government is the threat of Machado's return, noting the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) has legally enabled Delcy Rodríguez to complete the constitutional term until 2030.
  - The text asserts that US Executive Order 14373 and OFAC licenses act as a filter to align Venezuela's oil industry with US geopolitical interests, a control mechanism that could persist even after a new government is elected.

[2026-06-02] Venezuela Opposition Deputy Predicts 2027 Presidential Elections Under New Electoral Council
El Nacional — https://www.elnacional.com/2026/06/diputada-gladis-socorro-preve-elecciones-presidenciales-entre-marzo-y-abril-de-2027/
  - Opposition National Assembly Deputy Gladis Socorro stated on Tuesday that presidential elections in Venezuela could take place between March and April 2027, contingent on the leadership of a special ad hoc National Electoral Council (CNE).
  - Socorro, speaking in a video on her social media, noted that 'three-way coordinations' are underway between the ruling party and the opposition emerging from the October 22, 2023 primaries, with a United States delegation closely overseeing the plan.
  - She explicitly ruled out the current CNE led by Elvis Amoroso and his rectors, asserting that work is already underway to determine new leaders for the Electoral Power.
  - Socorro calculated that from June 2 (the date of her statement) to April 18, 2027, there are exactly 320 days remaining.
  - While the realization of elections is part of a three-phase plan established by U.S. President Donald Trump for Venezuela, no official date or timeline has been released.
  - This plan outlines a transition following the alleged capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which would install Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president.
  - The plan's first phase focuses on stabilization and humanitarian crisis management, the second on economic reconstruction with a focus on the energy sector, and the final phase aims to institutionalize democracy through competitive and free general elections.

[2026-05-24] María Corina Machado Announces 2026 Presidential Candidacy for Venezuela
Radio Mitre ✋🏽🧼🤚🏽 — https://radiomitre.cienradios.com/mundo/maria-corina-machado-anuncio-que-sera-candidata-a-presidenta-de-venezuela-en-2026/
  - Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado announced at a summit of opposition leaders in Panama City that she will be a candidate for president in 2026, stating, 'I will be a candidate, but there may be others, of course.' Machado, who has been in exile since December and spent nearly eleven months in clandestinity within Venezuela, confirmed she will return to Venezuela before the end of 2026.
  - Her international profile was bolstered when she traveled to Norway to receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
  - The opposition coalition aims to establish a roadmap for free, fair, and transparent presidential elections, though no specific electoral calendar has been set yet.
  - Advisors estimate that seven to nine months of work will be required to build the necessary technical and logistical framework for international oversight.
  - This political urgency follows the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which reconfigured the geopolitical landscape.
  - Following this event, the U.S. administration of Donald Trump began formally backing interim president Delcy Rodríguez, who has promoted opening the hydrocarbon sector to North American investments.
  - Although the Venezuelan Constitution mandates that presidential elections be called within 30 days of a 'total absence' declaration by the head of state, Machado emphasized that structural reforms—such as appointing neutral electoral authorities and updating the voter registry to allow citizens to vote abroad—must be prioritized before setting an election date.

[2026-05-23] Machado Confirms Presidential Candidacy in Venezuela for Future Free Elections
laverdad.com — https://laverdad.com/machado-afirma-que-sera-candidata-en-unas-elecciones-limpias-y-libres/
  - María Corina Machado, the opposition leader and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, announced on Saturday in Panama that she will run for president in future 'clean and free' elections in Venezuela, aligning with a three-phase plan promoted by the United States.
  - Speaking at a press conference, Machado emphasized the need for a democratic process with guarantees, stating, 'I will be a candidate, but there could be others.
  - I would love to compete with everyone.' She highlighted that nearly 40% of citizens were excluded from the July 28, 2024 presidential elections, including millions of unregistered migrants.
  - Machado called for the appointment of a new, independent National Electoral Council, describing the current system as 'corrupt, fraudulent, and unjust.' While avoiding a specific date, she noted elections could occur in seven to nine months under the current system but insisted on prioritizing conditions for full participation.
  - She thanked U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for his 'stabilization, recovery, and transition with election' plan, asserting that Venezuela is dismantling its repressive system and transforming economically.
  - Machado expressed confidence that she will return to Venezuela before the end of 2026 to coordinate with Washington and prepare for the fourth phase of national reconstruction.

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
Current state as of 2026-09-21:

- [2026-09-01] 
The National Assembly sanctioned, in its second discussion by unanimity, the partial reform of the Organic Law of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ)
, a step tied to the government-opposition dialogue but not itself an electoral announcement. (asambleanacional.gob.ve)
- [2026-09-03] 
Interim President Delcy Rodríguez said the country will go to the polls only when it is "ready and prepared," a position aligned with Washington's stance, while emphasizing she is working "without rest" to create conditions to call the process
. No date was given. (curadas.com/cibercuba)
- [2026-09-02] 
Rodríguez, asked directly when a new presidential election would be called, said Venezuela has a Constitution and an electoral system, adding "I don't set the date"
. (lapatilla.com)
- [2026-09-14] A new nine-organization coalition, Alianza por Venezuela, called for "free, fair and verifiable" elections with María Corina Machado as candidate — an opposition/civil-society call, not an authority with legal power to convoke elections (per background already retrieved).
- [2026-09-20] 
Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno called for Venezuela to hold presidential elections soon, proposing July 24, 2027 (Simón Bolívar's birthday) as the date, while also calling interim President Delcy Rodríguez illegitimate
. This is a U.S. senator's proposal, not a Venezuelan legal act. (Yahoo/Fox)
- [2026-09-20] 
Multiple outlets note the July 24, 2027 date "appears in his statements as a senator's proposal, not as an electoral calendar officially announced"
. (El Espectador)
- [2026-09-20] 
María Corina Machado publicly endorsed Moreno's proposal on X, thanking him for his "leadership and clarity" on the importance of free presidential elections
, using the hashtag #SetTheDate. (El Diario NY)
- [2026-09-20] 
Moreno's proposal follows weeks after the Trump and Rodríguez governments announced an oil-sector development deal covering 17 oil fields with potential output of about 65 billion barrels
, underscoring the economic-first sequencing Washington and Caracas have pursued ahead of any vote. (KESQ)
- [2026-09-20] 
Moreno's proposal came as Trump prepared his first in-person meeting with Rodríguez since Maduro's January capture, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly; Rodríguez has said there will be elections when Venezuela is ready, but no official electoral calendar exists so far
. (El Diario NY)
- [2026-09-20] 
Trump had said earlier in September that Venezuela was "not yet ready" for an election, though he said one would take place "soon," while allies like Rep. Carlos Giménez have called Rodríguez illegitimate and demanded elections
. (Yahoo News)
- [2026-09-20] 
Institutionally, the National Electoral Council (CNE) would need to announce the call and publish a calendar including candidate registration, updating of the electoral registry, campaign period, audits, voting and proclamation of results
 — none of which has occurred. (El Venezolano)
- [2026-09-14] 
PSUV's Diosdado Cabello noted some sectors had shifted from requesting elections in November 2026 to floating other possibilities, and said they could move "toward 2028," while PSUV would be ready to win whenever elections are held
. (El Venezolano)

BOTTOM LINE: As of September 21, 2026, there is no official Venezuelan electoral announcement — the CNE has issued no convocation or calendar, and Rodríguez, the only figure with plausible authority to trigger a presidential vote, has repeatedly refused to set a date, tying it to vague "readiness." The visible momentum (Moreno's July 24, 2027 proposal, Machado's endorsement) is a U.S. Senate/opposition advocacy campaign, explicitly acknowledged even by sympathetic outlets as a "proposal," not an official calendar, and if adopted it would set a vote date in mid-2027 — likely satisfying the "voting before Jan 1, 2028" clause but requiring a formal announcement (by CNE or comparable authority) before Jan 1, 2027 to resolve Yes.

NOT FOUND: No CNE (National Electoral Council) statement or press release addressing a presidential election calendar; no official Executive/Rodríguez response accepting or rejecting the July 24, 2027 date; no outcome yet from the anticipated Trump-Rodríguez UNGA meeting (expected around Sept 22-23, 2026); no confirmation of TSJ magistrate selection completion, which the opposition treats as a precondition for an "electoral roadmap."

### BASE RATE
**Prediction market base rates (primary, most directly relevant):**
- [2026-09-20] The Polymarket "Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?" market prices a scheduling announcement by December 31, 2026 at only ~16-17%, with the "January 31" bucket (2027) essentially at 0%, implying the market sees an announcement inside 2026 as unlikely but the residual mass concentrated much later (market rules require the eventual vote to occur before 2030, and note that 
this market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, otherwise it will resolve to "No," and to qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030
).
- [2026-09-21] Kalshi's equivalent contract prices "before Jan 1, 2027" at just ~5%, "before Jun 1, 2027" at 36%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect any formal announcement (if it comes) to land in 2027, not by this question's Dec 31, 2026/Jan 1, 2027 resolution point.
- [2026-08-18] An algorithmic market-analysis site assessed that 
scheduling an election by December 31 appears highly improbable, since a new electoral council is only expected to be appointed by the end of 2026
, and noted 
this market's price has shown a consistent downward trend since its inception, opening at 23.0% on August 4 and declining to 16.0%, corresponding with mid-August reports confirming no presidential election date had been scheduled
.

**Comparable historical reference class (transitional governments after regime change/leader removal):**
- Tunisia (2011 uprising): 
it took more than three years after the uprising in 2011 to organize elections
 — an example of an "authoritarianism to democracy" transition that far outran initial promises.
- Egypt/Tunisia 2011: 
both countries opted originally for rapid movement toward elections, with Tunisia choosing July 14 as the election date and Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces pledging to complete the election process in six months
, yet 
the interim governments had little legitimacy as caretakers meant to organize quick elections, but elections were postponed in both countries and the transition stretched on
 — illustrating that even fast public commitments to a date routinely slip.
- Libya (2011 fall of Gaddafi): the National Transitional Council governed roughly ten months before holding a first (legislative, not presidential) election in mid-2012, and presidential elections still have not been consolidated 15 years later, with the latest roadmap (2026) targeting a vote only by 
simultaneous elections by 17 February 2027
, itself a repeatedly-delayed target.
- Sudan (2019 ouster of Bashir): 
the removal of long-time leader Omar al-Bashir in 2019 by the military, following months of popular demonstrations, marked the start of a two-year transition
, which was then further disrupted by a 2021 coup, pushing elections out for years beyond the original plan.
- General academic literature (International IDEA) treats Venezuela itself as a case study in an "authoritarianism to democratic governance" transition type, alongside Tunisia, Myanmar, and Burkina Faso, and notes 
international third parties have often favoured early post-conflict elections, which provide them with a convenient exit strategy, but the resulting rush to the polls can have detrimental effects on the transition
 — a caution against assuming fast announcements.
- Net pattern from this reference class: announced/target election dates in post-authoritarian or post-strongman-removal transitions are very frequently missed or pushed back (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Sudan all slipped by a year or more from original pledges), though initial round-number target dates ("six months," "one year," "two years") are commonly floated early by international backers — much like the Moreno/Machado July 2027 proposal here.

**Venezuela-specific expert/institutional estimates:**
- [2026-05] Opposition leader María Corina Machado's own estimate, as tracked by the Congressional Research Service, was that 
an election could occur in as soon as 40 weeks
 from that point (i.e., roughly February 2027) — itself an opposition-optimistic figure, not an official government commitment.
- [2026-04] Chatham House analysis argued that credible elections require extensive groundwork and that 
if fully implemented, these steps will take at least a year
 from when serious preparation begins — and as of April 2026 that preparation had barely started (
the momentum for change is fading as the interim government and the US avoid committing to election specifics
).
- [2026-08] Newsweek/CRS-adjacent reporting notes a poor institutional track record: 
previous rounds of dialogue from 2017 to 2024 ended without lasting agreements
, underscoring that Venezuelan government-opposition talks historically fail to produce timely, binding electoral commitments.
- [2026-09-20] The only concrete "date" now circulating (July 24, 2027, proposed by U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno and endorsed by Machado) is explicitly a political proposal from a foreign legislator and an opposition figure, not an announcement by a Venezuelan authority with legal power to call elections — the CNE/government has made no such announcement, and Rodríguez has repeatedly said elections will happen only "when the country is ready," with Trump agreeing.

BOTTOM LINE: Both the base-rate evidence from comparable post-authoritarian transitions (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Sudan — all of which missed early target dates by a year or more) and current prediction-market pricing (5–17% for an announcement by year-end 2026/Jan 1, 2027) point toward a low probability of Venezuela making a legally authoritative, dated election announcement before January 1, 2027; the institutional prerequisite (a reconstituted CNE) is not expected until late 2026 at the earliest, and the only concrete date floated (July 2027) so far comes from a US senator and opposition leader, not the government body with legal authority to call elections.

NOT FOUND: No official Venezuelan government (CNE, National Assembly, or presidency) statement setting a specific election date has been located; no confirmed appointment date for the new National Electoral Council magistrates; no direct historical statistic on "% of transitional governments that formally announce an election date within 12 months of a leadership change."

### KEY FACTORS
Key causal drivers determining whether Venezuela officially announces a presidential election (with named date, voting before 2028) before January 1, 2027:

**1. Who has legal authority to call an election: the CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral), chavista-controlled**
- Under Venezuelan law, only the National Electoral Council can formally convoke a presidential election. 
No convocatoria from the CNE for 2027 presidential elections nor a schedule setting a date for those elections has been found.
 
The CNE's own web portal remains inaccessible, and Venezuela Sin Filtro documented that cne.gob.ve had been offline for nearly a year, a restriction originating from the body itself.
 Its official social media has also gone dark. This body remains under Maduro-era chavista control and has given no indication of movement toward a presidential contest.

**2. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez's stance — deliberately non-committal**
- 
Trump praised Rodríguez as "doing a very, very good job" and said "Delcy wants it, but they're not ready yet," referring to elections.
 Rodríguez herself, per earlier reporting, has said elections will happen "when Venezuela is ready" without a timeline, and explicitly said "yo no fijo fecha" (I don't set a date), per DW reporting cited in Cotejo.info's fact-check.

**3. US position — sets the pace but resists a firm date, prioritizes institutional/economic "phases" first**
- 
Trump said on September 2, 2026, that Venezuela does not yet meet conditions to call elections, five days after announcing an oil deal granting Washington majority control over a fifth of the country's oil reserves, and did not specify conditions or set out any timetable.
 
Secretary of State Rubio said "We don't just want there to be an election... we want to make sure that it leads to a republic," with the goal being an enduring political system with elections held regularly.
 The White House has framed a three-phase process (stability, economic recovery, reconciliation) before elections, per the September 2 White House statement cited in fact-checks, with no fixed date.

**4. Judicial/institutional prerequisites (TSJ reform) — in progress but incomplete**
- 
The TSJ reform law was published in Gaceta Oficial Extraordinaria N.° 7.074 on September 15, 2026, entering into force immediately; it allows activation of the procedure for selecting new TSJ magistrates, but the Assembly must first form the nominations Committee and then evaluate candidates.
 
The nominating committee will grow from 21 to 23 members (11 legislators, 12 civil-society representatives) and will function for two years.
 This is a precondition opposition negotiators see as necessary before any credible electoral roadmap, and it is still mid-process, not complete.

**5. Political pressure/proposals for a date — growing but non-binding**
- 
Elections in Venezuela still have no official date, though political signals point to 2027 as the year with the greatest likelihood of a transitional presidential vote.
 On September 20, 2026, US Senator Bernie Moreno proposed July 24, 2027 (Bolívar's birthday) as an election date, endorsed by María Corina Machado and several US Congress members — but this remains a political proposal, not an official CNE convocation, and it targets a 2027 vote date, not an announcement necessarily occurring by end-2026.

BOTTOM LINE: All levers needed for a binding announcement (CNE convocation with a named date and legal authority) remain firmly with a chavista-controlled electoral council that is currently non-functional/opaque, while both Rodríguez's interim government and the Trump administration are actively resisting setting a firm date, and the prerequisite TSJ/judicial reform process is still incomplete; recent momentum (Moreno/Machado's July 2027 proposal) is advocacy, not an official convocation, making a legally valid election announcement before January 1, 2027 unlikely absent a rapid, currently unsignaled acceleration.

NOT FOUND: Any statement from the CNE itself (its portal and social media remain inactive) addressing a 2027 election; any official government or National Assembly decree naming a specific election date; confirmation of the "second cycle" of government-opposition talks concluding with an electoral timeline.

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-09-20] Polymarket's "Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?" market (Dec 31, 2026 outcome) prices this question's core event at just 16%, down from an opening 23% on Aug 4, 2026, on 
$622,695 in total trading volume as of September 20, 2026, with "December 31" the leading outcome at 16%
. To count as Yes, 
the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030, and this market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within the timeframe, regardless of when the election itself is supposed to occur
 — a lower bar than the Metaculus-style question at hand.

- [2026-08-18] Octagon AI's model-based analysis of that same Polymarket market concluded 
scheduling an election by December 31 appears highly improbable, since a new electoral council is only expected appointed by the end of 2026, and Venezuela lacks a scheduled presidential election date amid a transitional period
. It noted 
the market's price has shown a consistent downward trend, opening at 23.0% on August 4 and declining to 16.0% by August 18
, with 
this decline corresponding to mid-August reports confirming that despite ongoing negotiations, no presidential election date had been scheduled
.

- [2026-08-18] The same Octagon report flagged a structural reason for skepticism: 
the technical picture is defined by a complete lack of trading volume, indicating an illiquid market with very low conviction from traders
 — meaning the 16% figure should be read as a soft, weakly-supported estimate rather than a robust consensus.

- [2026-08-18] Octagon's synthesis of institutional facts underpinning trader pessimism: 
a new National Electoral Council, responsible for scheduling elections, is only expected to be appointed by the end of 2026, making an earlier schedule highly improbable
, and separately that 
as of June 2026, the official CNE website is still offline
 (per Wikipedia's tracking of the ongoing institutional crisis).

- [2026-01-09] Kalshi's markets (data now stale, from early January 2026 shortly after Maduro's capture) had priced considerably higher odds than current Polymarket pricing: 
a 64% chance that Venezuela will hold another presidential election before June 1, 2027, a 47% chance it will be held before the start of next year, and a 26% chance the election will happen by September of this year
. Kalshi's companion market gave 
Rodríguez a 54% chance of lasting until at least the end of 2026, with a 12% chance opposition figure Edmundo González would take over, and a 20% chance María Corina Machado would gain power
. No more recent Kalshi update on this specific question was found, suggesting these odds may not reflect the current state of stalled negotiations.

- [2026-09-14] A new opposition umbrella, Alianza por Venezuela, publicly called for elections with Machado as its candidate — an advocacy position from within the opposition rather than an official government announcement, and thus does not itself move the "official announcement" bar this question requires.

- [2026-09-20] Multiple analysts/politicians — not official electoral bodies — floated a concrete date. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno publicly proposed July 24, 2027 (Simón Bolívar's birthday) as an election date, explicitly stating 
"We need to have elections in Venezuela... Obviously they aren't ready for elections today, but I think it's extremely important to set a date. I suggested July 24 of next year; that's Simón Bolívar's birthday"
. María Corina Machado endorsed this proposal via the hashtag #SetTheDate, and Venezuelan opposition figures such as Juan Pablo Guanipa and Vente Venezuela backed it, but Spanish-language reporting was explicit that 
the date appears in Moreno's declarations as a proposal by the senator, not as an electoral calendar officially announced
.

- [2026-09-03] Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, the person with the actual constitutional authority relevant to this question, stated only that 
Rodríguez's status as president also depends on when Venezuela will hold its next election
 and, per earlier reporting, that elections will occur only "when the country is ready," without giving a date — directly undercutting market/analyst optimism about a near-term formal announcement.

- [2026-08-18] Analysts note a structural gap between political rhetoric and formal capacity: 
arguments for "No" emphasize ongoing political instability, reports of the U.S. potentially ruling out elections, and the interim government's lack of a firm timeline tied to internal negotiations and reduced external pressures, with the market's consensus heavily leaning "No"
, even as some opposition voices suggest possible election windows.

- [2026-01-11] A now-closed, narrower Metaculus question ("Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?") resolved with a community forecast of roughly 15% chance among 94 forecasters, reflecting analyst skepticism about a near-term formal announcement dating back to January 2026 — consistent with the trajectory of later markets remaining low.

NOT FOUND: A live, actively-updated Metaculus question matching this exact "before 2027" framing with a current (September 2026) community probability; a current (post-August) Kalshi quote for the "will Venezuela hold a presidential election" series; any Manifold Markets question on this topic; any official confirmation that Rodríguez, the National Assembly, or a reconstituted CNE has set or is imminently expected to set a specific binding election date.

BOTTOM LINE: Markets and analysts converge on skepticism: Polymarket prices a formal 2026 scheduling announcement at only ~16% (down from 23% in August) on an illiquid, low-volume contract, and analyst commentary (Octagon) attributes this to the absence of a reconstituted CNE and no finalized timeline; the only concrete "date" circulating (July 24, 2027, from Sen. Moreno) is explicitly a political proposal endorsed by opposition figures, not an official government announcement, while Rodríguez and Trump both continue to say Venezuela is "not ready" — all pointing toward a fairly low probability that an official, dated announcement occurs before January 1, 2027.

### YES CASE
**Most likely path to YES:** The US-backed political dialogue produces a reformed National Electoral Council (CNE) by the end of 2026, followed swiftly by an announcement of a specific presidential election date (most likely the July 24, 2027 date now being promoted), before the December 31, 2026 window closes.

Key evidentiary building blocks for this path:

- [2026-08-12] 
Venezuela's interim government, backed by the Trump administration, and an opposition faction led by Dinorah Figuera concluded a first round of political talks in Caracas, agreeing to renew the entire TSJ, launch a new nominations process, and establish a committee to reform the CNE ahead of future elections
. Source: jurist.org.
- [2026-09-01] 
Venezuela's National Assembly unanimously approved a reform to the Organic Law of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, expanding the Judicial Nominations Committee to 23 members with civil-society organizations holding a majority of seats, a body responsible for vetting candidates to the 32-seat TSJ
. This is a concrete institutional step negotiators frame as prerequisite to elections. Source: jurist.org.
- [2026-09-02] Per the same JURIST reporting, 
opposition negotiators have said they expect the talks to produce a reformed CNE by the end of 2026
 — precisely within the question's resolution window, which would remove the main institutional obstacle to naming a date.
- [2026-09-14] A new nine-organization coalition, Alianza por Venezuela, publicly called for "free, fair and verifiable" presidential elections with María Corina Machado as candidate, per Reuters reporting cited in the question background — showing organized domestic pressure for a dated election.
- [2026-09-20] U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno publicly proposed July 24, 2027 (Simón Bolívar's birthday) as the election date, explicitly framing setting a date now as necessary even while conceding Venezuela is "not ready for elections today."
- [2026-09-20] María Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize-winning opposition leader with by far the highest polling support (consistently 55-78% in multiple 2026 polls per Meganalisis, AtlasIntel, and Hercon surveys tracked on Wikipedia's "Next Venezuelan presidential election" page), endorsed Moreno's proposal via the #SetTheDate hashtag, adding elite momentum behind a concrete date.
- [2026-09-20] Republican Congressman Carlos Giménez and other US lawmakers echoed the call for elections "as soon as possible," indicating bipartisan/Trump-administration-aligned US political pressure pushing Caracas toward naming a date.
- [2026-09-02] Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, while refusing to commit to a timeline, did not rule out elections and stated at a Miraflores press conference: 
"I don't set the date... There will be an electoral process, but when Venezuela is ready. And there will be one — without a doubt."
 This keeps the door open rather than closed.
- Historical precedent: Venezuela has a track record of announcing specific election dates relatively close to the actual vote once institutional/political conditions align — e.g., 
Elections council head Tibisay Lucena announced Monday, June 22, 2015 that the South American country will hold National Assembly elections on December 6
, only about 5.5 months' notice. A similar late-2026 announcement of a mid-2027 vote (e.g., July 24, 2027) would fit this pattern and would satisfy the resolution criteria (specific date named, voting scheduled before January 1, 2028).
- The oil/investment dimension adds an incentive: Rodríguez signed a major US oil agreement in September 2026 amid parallel electoral talks, suggesting Washington's economic engagement is bundled with the CNE/TSJ reform-election roadmap, giving both sides an incentive to formalize a date to unlock further economic and diplomatic benefits.

BOTTOM LINE: If the CNE reform negotiators say they expect by year-end 2026 is completed on schedule, and the political/US momentum around the July 24, 2027 date (backed by Machado, US senators, and a new nine-party opposition coalition) converts from a "proposal" into a formal act by an authority with legal power (Rodríguez, the CNE, or the National Assembly), a YES resolution is plausible before December 31, 2026 — the pieces (institutional reform, coalesced opposition demand, a specific proposed date, and US pressure) are aligning simultaneously in September 2026.

NOT FOUND: No official government or CNE statement setting a binding election date has yet been issued as of September 21, 2026 (all elements found are proposals, endorsements, or reform steps, not a formal legal announcement); could not find a finalized CNE reform completion date or a formal government response accepting/rejecting the July 24, 2027 proposal.

### NO CASE
- [2026-09-03] Interim President Delcy Rodríguez stated that 
Trump praised Venezuelan Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, saying she was "doing a very, very good job" and was "very highly respected," and said "Delcy wants it, but they're not ready yet," referring to elections
. Rodríguez herself said an election will happen only when the country is ready, and explicitly stated the authority to set the date does not rest with her personally — pointing the decision toward Venezuela's electoral institutions (CNE), not an interim president's fiat. (Hürriyet, 2026-09-03)

- [2026-09-20] Trump himself, ahead of meeting Rodríguez at UNGA, again declined to give any timeline: 
Trump is now saying the country is not ready for elections yet, without giving a specific timeline for when it will be
. This is the single most authoritative U.S. signal that no near-term convocation is imminent. (NBC Miami, 2026-09-20)

- [2026-09-20/21] The only "date" in circulation — July 24, 2027 — comes not from any Venezuelan authority but from U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno, an informal Trump adviser on Latin America. Multiple outlets stress its non-official status: 
the date appears in his statements as a senator's proposal, not as an electoral calendar officially announced, and his proposal is not equivalent to an official call for elections
. Even backers concede the country "is not ready today" (
the senator acknowledged that the country is not currently prepared to vote, but insisted on the importance of setting a calendar... "Obviously, they are not ready for elections today, but I think it is extremely important to set a date"
).

- [2026-09-13] Reporting on the negotiated TSJ (Supreme Court) reform shows the institutional prerequisites for any credible electoral call remain unresolved. Analysts note 
the new TSJ law does not guarantee a depoliticized high court whose members have the best credentials, and only changes one article of the law
, and one negotiator warned 
the AN president (Delcy Rodríguez's brother) is keeping the Parliament effectively paralyzed on this process, with a PSUV supermajority (256 of 284 deputies)
 controlling the outcome.

- [2026-09-13] A key Venezuelan opposition figure argued that a functioning, independent CNE — the body constitutionally responsible for actually calling elections — is still a step behind even the TSJ reform: 
"Having a new TSJ is more important right now than electing a new National Electoral Council (CNE)... but not with a TSJ like today's that annuls CNE decisions, even the will of Venezuelans"
, per opposition leader Capriles.

- [2026-09-13] An analyst quoted in the same report was skeptical of even the judicial-reform timeline, let alone an election date: 
Sucre "is not very convinced that by November Venezuela will have a new TSJ," and even flagged that the government may not want an independent TSJ too soon "because that accelerates the timelines for a presidential election"
 — direct evidence of chavista incentive to slow-walk, not accelerate, any official announcement.

- [2026-09-17] Opposition's own internally stated goal is merely to "have a new CNE before December 2026" — a precondition, not an election announcement itself, and even that target is aspirational rather than confirmed by any legal act (LaPatilla, 2026-09-17 reporting, corroborated by other dialogue coverage).

- [2026-09-20] Even Moreno's push is paired with attacks on Rodríguez's legitimacy: 
Moreno called for Venezuela to hold elections soon and warned that Rodriguez should not be viewed as a legitimate leader, urging caution as Trump prepared to meet Rodriguez
 — indicating friction inside the Trump camp itself rather than a united push toward a near-term formal announcement.

- [2026-08-27/09-01] The TSJ reform passed unanimously in the National Assembly is explicitly a precursor step, not an election announcement: 
the reform reconfigures the Judicial Nominations Committee, giving civil society a majority of 12 seats versus 11 for lawmakers, establishing the roadmap for the total renewal of the 32 magistrates
 — magistrates who must be seated before any CNE renewal or election calendar can proceed on the chavista-controlled legal track.

- [2026-09-03] No CNE convocation exists to date; historically (see 2024 precedent), Venezuelan presidential elections are called by the CNE with published registration/campaign schedules, a step that per all September reporting has not occurred, and Rodríguez's own statements confirm no calendar has been set.

BOTTOM LINE: As of September 21, 2026, no Venezuelan authority with legal power to call elections — the CNE — has issued any convocation; the only "date" (July 24, 2027) is an unofficial U.S. senator's proposal, explicitly disclaimed as non-binding by multiple outlets; both Rodríguez and Trump have publicly said the country is "not ready" with no timeline; and the prerequisite TSJ/CNE renovation process is bogged down in PSUV-controlled procedural steps that one analyst says the government may deliberately slow to delay elections — all pointing toward NO by the January 1, 2027 resolution deadline.

NOT FOUND: No official CNE statement or Gaceta Oficial publication announcing any electoral schedule; no statement from Delcy Rodríguez or the National Assembly formally adopting the July 24, 2027 (or any other) date as a binding legal call; no evidence the "Alianza por Venezuela" coalition's September 14 call carries legal authority to convene elections.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources above show the resolving condition ALREADY met (or already impossible) as of today? If so, say which source and price it at the cap. Otherwise, name what would still have to happen and by when (the RESOLUTION date).
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
  (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
  (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.

## Calibration guidance

- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market, treat its price as a strong, well-calibrated prior and name the specific evidence the market lacks whenever you land more than ~15 percentage points from it. A RELATED market (different deadline, threshold or resolution) is context only — do not anchor on it. If no market is listed, there is none on this question; do not assume one.
- **Anchor on the resolution source.** If the evidence includes a RESOLUTION SOURCE block, the question resolves on what THAT page shows, not on what the world does. If it says the resolving condition is already met, the correct probability is at the cap (0.97-0.98); if definitively unmet with no path left, 0.02-0.03. Otherwise its current state is your status quo, and the gap between the source and reality (lagging updates, different metric, classification rules) is a first-class risk to price explicitly, not a footnote at 5%.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (0) (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
  "p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
  "what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}