Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?

- [2026-09-21] Wikipedia's polling tracker confirms the 2026 election is set for October 27, 2026, to elect the 26th Knesset, with the outgoing 25th Knesset having 
completed its full four-year term without early dissolution since 1988, ending the prolonged political crisis of 2018–2022
. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

- [2026-09-17] The most recent dated individual poll found (Channel 13/HaMadad) shows Yashar leading Likud head-to-head: 
the bloc of parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will win 54 seats, narrowly leading the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, which receives 52 seats. However, Likud drops to 18 seats, one fewer than in the previous poll and its lowest tally in recent months
; 
Eisenkot's Yashar party is the largest with 22 seats, followed by Likud with 18
. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-17/ty-article/israeli-election-poll-sees-pro-netanyahu-bloc-edge-ahead-of-eisenkot/000001a0-ad41-dea8-afe0-eded00220000

- [2026-09-17] Same-week aggregate (five polls, Sept 17) shows Yashar consistently ahead of Likud in seat projections: 
Across the five polls, Eisenkot's Yashar averaged 22.2 seats, ahead of Likud's 21.2, while the bloc picture remained inconclusive with the Netanyahu leading by a thin margin
. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921

- [2026-09-18] Likud escalated its legal/campaign fight against Yashar: 
Likud filed a petition against Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, demanding the removal of three election campaign videos about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conduct in the period leading up to the October 7 massacre
, submitted to the Central Elections Committee chairman; as of filing "no ruling has been issued." https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909066

- [2026-09-10] The five polls taken immediately after Knesset party lists closed (Sept 9-10) put Yashar ahead in seat count in 4 of 5 surveys, with only i24NEWS/Direct Polls showing Likud on top: 
Less than 24 hours after the closing of the Knesset 2026 party lists, five polls published Wednesday night presented a highly fragmented political picture. In four of them, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party is the largest party, while in an i24NEWS poll, the Likud surged into first place by a significant margin
; averaged, 
Netanyahu's bloc, including Winter, stands at 53.6 seats, compared with 53.4 for the Zionist opposition bloc
. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908282

- [2026-09-09] The single outlier poll favoring Likud: i24NEWS/Direct Polls found 
If elections for the Knesset were held today, Likud would remain Israel's largest party with 27 seats, according to an i24NEWS poll conducted on September 9, 2026, by Direct Polls. Yashar ranks second with 22 seats, five behind Likud
, though overall 
the results point to a divided Knesset in which no party comes close to being able to form a government on its own
. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israeli-elections/artc-i24news-poll-likud-leads-with-27-seats-yashar-wins-22

- [2026-09-17] Leadership polling (Channel 14) still gives Netanyahu a big personal lead for PM preference in an open-ended question: figures show Netanyahu at 55 vs Eisenkot at 29 in that poll (per Wikipedia's leadership polling tracker), indicating a split between personal PM preference and party-seat projections. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election

- [2026-09-21] Bloc-level reporting continues to show a near-even split: 
The bloc map: 52 seats for Eisenkot's bloc, 52 for Netanyahu's bloc, 12 for the Arab parties, and 4 for Hendel and Zelekha
 in a recent KAN poll cited by JPost, underscoring that neither bloc has a clear majority. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908282

- [2026-09-21] The Irish Times reports that despite fragmentation, 
The centrist Yashar party, led by former General Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to top Likud as the largest party
 in current polling ahead of the vote. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/09/21/can-anyone-end-the-netanyahu-era/

- [2026-09-21] Wikipedia's current-seats baseline table (pre-election) still lists Likud as the largest incumbent party with 32 seats, versus Yashar's zero incumbent seats as a new party — the starting point against which the projected overtaking is measured. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

BOTTOM LINE: As of Sept 17-21, 2026, the large majority of published polls (Channel 12, Channel 13, KAN, Walla, HaMadad) show Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party leading Likud in projected seats (roughly 21-25 vs Likud's 18-22), with only the i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey showing Likud ahead; the two governing blocs remain locked in a near 50-50 tie, and Likud is actively contesting Yashar's campaign messaging in court, signaling a genuinely close and unresolved Likud-vs-Yashar race heading into the final weeks.

NOT FOUND: No poll published after September 18, 2026 was located (most recent dated survey is the Sept 17 Channel 13/HaMadad poll); no official Central Election Committee ruling on the Likud-vs-Yashar ad petition; no confirmation of election-day or postponement status beyond the scheduled October 27, 2026 date.

- [2026-09-20] Poll aggregation of 15 pollsters (fieldwork Sept 3–17) by the Middle East Forum's tracker shows Yashar and Likud statistically tied for first place, with Yashar averaging 24 seats (range 20–25) and Likud averaging 23 seats (range 18–31 across individual polls). 
Netanyahu bloc 52, Opposition 52, Arab parties 12, average of 15 polling houses, fieldwork 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-18.
 This is the single most comprehensive primary poll-of-polls source available (311 polls tracked in 2026).

- [2026-09-18] A same-day survey of four different pollsters found a nine-seat spread on which party leads: 
Maariv/Lazar gives Yashar 23 seats and Likud 18; Israel Hayom/Kantar puts them at 22 and 20; Zman Yisrael/Tatika gives them 24 and 22. i24NEWS/Direct Polls reverses the order, with Likud on 27 and Yashar on 21.
 This illustrates real house-effect variance rather than a settled consensus on which of the two parties will finish first.

- [2026-09-21] Prediction markets currently favor Yashar over Likud for outright plurality, though the exact reading varies by venue and date, ranging from roughly 60-62% Yashar/39-40% Likud on Polymarket to narrower splits on Kalshi around the low-to-mid 50s in mid-September — indicating markets see this as a real toss-up leaning slightly to the newcomer, not a landslide either way.

- [2026-09-17] Reuters-style bloc analysis (Haaretz) shows a poll where 
the pro-Netanyahu bloc is projected to win 54 seats to lead the race, while Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18
 — a reminder that a party can lead in seats while its bloc still trails or ties, and vice versa, adding genuine uncertainty to a "most seats" (not "most bloc seats") resolution.

- [2006 precedent] The only close historical analogue to a brand-new, poll-leading centrist challenger unseating a long-dominant incumbent party is Kadima (2006): 
established on 24 November 2005 by moderates from Likud... it became the largest party in the Knesset after the 2006 elections, winning 29 of the 120 seats, and led a coalition government.
 That episode is frequently invoked as the outside-view case for Yashar, showing new-party breakthroughs from Likud defectors/military figures are not unprecedented in Israel, though they remain rare (roughly once in ~20 elections since 1949).

- [Historical base rate] Outside that one case, no genuinely new party (first election) has topped the seat count in any of the ~25 Knesset elections since 1949; established Likud or Labor/Alignment/Kadima-successor blocs have almost always finished first, making a first-time party win a low-base-rate event in the raw historical record, even though Yashar is currently polling competitively.

- [Polling error patterns] Analysis of past Israeli elections shows polling misses tend to favor major "bloc-consolidating" parties late in the race: 
Yesh Atid... outperformed the average of polls by eight seats, winning 19 seats, compared to just 11 which it had been projected to win
 in 2013, and similarly 
the Likud was projected to win 22 seats, while in reality it won 30
 in 2015 — both cases of late "big party" consolidation. This pattern is relevant here: both Likud and Yashar are the two "consolidator" parties in their respective blocs in 2026, so late swing could break either way, but historically the incumbent PM's party (Netanyahu/Likud specifically) has a track record of outperforming final pre-election polls in tight races.

- [2026-09-18] Substantive uncertainty also stems from repeated documented systematic errors: 
In 2021, the whole industry overestimated Joint List, New Hope, and Yamina, and underestimated Labor, B&W, RZP, and Meretz. In 2020, every single pollster underestimated Likud and the Joint List's popularity
 — suggesting Likud in particular has a modest history of being underestimated by pre-election polling in multiple recent cycles (2013, 2015, 2020), a favorable outside-view signal for Likud relative to current polling parity with Yashar.

- [2026-09-17] Independent of the top-line horse race, both blocs remain stuck near 52 seats apiece with neither reaching the 61-seat majority threshold, per multiple trackers, meaning the "most seats" winner may not determine the governing coalition — a separate but related base-rate fact: 
Likud won 32 seats in the most recent (2022) election
, its highest total in over a decade, but has now polled below that level continuously through 2026 per Statista's Kantar-based tracking.

- [2026-09-17] Aggregated tracking of the incumbent's polling trajectory shows a sustained decline: 
A political poll conducted on August 16th, 2026, suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu's party would have won 23 of the Knesset's 120 seats had an election been held that day. In the preceding weeks, its support ranged from 21 to 24 seats. Likud won 32 seats in the parliamentary election of November 2022
 — a roughly 9-seat erosion from its last electoral performance, historically unusual for a sitting PM's party this close to an election, though not unprecedented in Israel's volatile multi-party system.

BOTTOM LINE: The outside view offers mixed signals: new "clean-slate" challenger parties have only once before (Kadima, 2006) leapfrogged an incumbent to win a plurality, making an outright Yashar victory a historically rare pattern; but Israel's recent polling-error history shows established "big-tent" incumbents like Likud are frequently underestimated in final polls, while genuine toss-up dynamics (nine-seat spreads between simultaneous polls, near-tied prediction markets) mean the base rate alone cannot decisively favor either Likud or Yashar — this is one of the closest top-two races in Israel's recorded polling history.

NOT FOUND: A rigorous statistical study specifically quantifying "how often the pre-election poll leader in seats has gone on to actually win the most seats" in Israeli elections; final verified Kalshi contract prices (source access limited to secondary summaries, some of unclear reliability, e.g. prediction.com aggregation); any authoritative comparative base rate for "military-hero-led breakaway party" challenges beyond the single Kadima case.

**Key causal drivers determining which party (Likud vs Yashar vs Other) wins the most seats on Oct 27, 2026:**

1. **Head-to-head Yashar vs. Likud polling trend.** This is the single biggest driver. 
Reflecting a broad rightward shift among the Israeli electorate, Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot is winning voters on the right and leading in the polls, with survey after survey putting Yashar slightly ahead or neck-and-neck with Likud, making Eisenkot the opposition figure with the clearest path to leading the next Knesset's largest party.
 The most recent polls (mid-to-late September) show Yashar consistently at 18-25 seats vs Likud's 18-27, with most surveys favoring Yashar: [2026-09-17] 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18
, source: haaretz.com. Only one outlier poll (i24NEWS/Direct Polls) in mid-September showed Likud clearly ahead (27 vs 22).

2. **Right-wing vote fragmentation is squeezing Likud's base.** [2026-09-14] 
Survey after survey has put Yashar slightly ahead or neck-and-neck with Likud, making Eisenkot the opposition figure with the clearest path, not only to leading the next Knesset's largest party, but to forming the next government and replacing Netanyahu as prime minister.
 Times of Israel notes 
Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot is winning voters on the right and leading in the polls by presenting a party that in many ways resembles the Likud of yesteryear
, drawing directly from Likud's traditional voter pool while smaller right parties (Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Ofer Winter's "People of Israel", Zehut) compete for the remainder, further diluting Likud specifically (not the whole bloc).

3. **Candidate-list finalization (completed early September) locked in the competitive landscape.** [2026-09-14] Party lists closed 
in the final weeks before last week's deadline
, with no major mergers; Likud's primary (Aug 17) produced a slate seen as favoring Netanyahu loyalists, while 
Likud is slated to win significantly fewer seats than it currently holds, with opinion polls suggesting Netanyahu's party will win between 22 and 24 seats, meaning many of the 32 current Likud lawmakers are likely to leave the Knesset
 (Times of Israel, Aug 18). Yashar's 40-person slate, unveiled Sept 7, deliberately targets ex-Likud/right-leaning voters rather than the traditional center-left, directly threatening Likud's core support (Times of Israel, Sept 14).

4. **Bloc-level deadlock does not by itself decide the "largest party" question**, but shapes turnout/tactical dynamics. [2026-09-21] Ruhrbarone/AskNews summary indicates 
the pro-Netanyahu bloc is projected around 52 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc also around 52, with neither able to secure a majority, making the Arab vote decisive
 for governing power — but this is a separate question from which single party tops the seat count.

5. **Small-party threshold survival (3.25%) affects seat totals but not the top-line Likud/Yashar race directly.** Multiple JPost reports [2026-09-08/09] note that lists like Ofer Winter's "People of Israel," Hendel-Zelekha, Blue and White, and the Haredi Public party are hovering near or below threshold, which reallocates a few seats among surviving parties but does not change which of Likud or Yashar leads.

**What would have to happen for each outcome:**
- **Yashar to win:** current trend (most Sept polls) simply continuing to election day — Yashar has led in the majority of individual polls since early August.
- **Likud to win:** a late swing back toward Netanyahu of the kind seen only in the outlier i24NEWS poll, or an "October surprise" (security event, unity/merger, or damaging revelation against Eisenkot) reversing the ongoing right-wing voter migration to Yashar.
- **"Other" to win:** would require both Likud and Yashar to underperform relative to a third party — no polling data support this; no party besides these two has ever led a seat-count poll this cycle.

BOTTOM LINE: Polling through late September 2026 is genuinely close but tilts more often toward Yashar than Likud as the largest single party, driven by Yashar's success in peeling right-leaning, ex-Likud voters away from Netanyahu; a Likud win remains plausible but would require a reversal of the current trend, while an "Other" party win has no support in current data.

NOT FOUND: No official CEC (Central Elections Committee) certified poll-of-polls aggregate; no post-September 17 poll data (most recent found is dated Sept 17); no direct fetch of the live Wikipedia polling tables (attempted but page returned only boilerplate, not the data table with the most recent entries).

- [2026-09-20] Middle East Forum's "poll of polls" tracker (aggregating 15 polling houses, fieldwork Sept 3–17) puts Yashar at a **24-seat average** (mean 22.9, range 20–25) versus Likud's **23-seat average** (mean 22.5, range 18–31), a statistical tie with Yashar slightly ahead; the Netanyahu bloc averages 53 seats, opposition 54, Arab parties 13 — no bloc reaches the 61-seat majority. https://israelvote.meforum.org/

- [2026-09-17] Latest individual polls compiled by the tracker show a split picture: five of six late-September surveys (Kantar/Kan, LRI+P4A/Maariv, Yossi Tatika/Zman Yisrael, MP+TM+SN+A/Channel 13, Midgam R&C/HaHadashot 12) put Yashar ahead of Likud (22–24 vs 18–22 seats), while Channel 14's SF+ND poll and i24News/Direct Polls show Likud leading (30–31 vs 20–21 seats). https://israelvote.meforum.org/

- [2026-09-21] Jerusalem Post reporting on the same week of five polls confirms 
"Across the five polls, Eisenkot's Yashar averaged 22.2 seats, ahead of Likud's 21.2, while the bloc picture remained inconclusive with the Netanyahu leading by a thin margin."
 One outlier, i24NEWS/Direct Polls, 
showed Likud taking first place by a significant margin, with Netanyahu's Likud leading the race with 27 seats to Eisenkot's Yashar receiving 22.


- [2026-09-19] Prediction markets (aggregated by Prediction.com from Polymarket and Kalshi) price Likud's chance of winning the most seats at roughly **31–36%**, down sharply from 42% just three days earlier and from a peak near 60-64% in early August; the article states 
"Prediction markets for the next Israeli legislative election have cut Likud's implied probability from 42% to 31% over the past three days, the steepest three-day decline this contract has recorded."


- [2026-09-19] Individual venue prices: Polymarket lists Likud "YES" at 39¢ (~39%) and Kalshi at 45¢ (~45%), for a blended average of 36%, implying Yashar (and other opposition options combined) hold the balance of probability (~55-60%) as of that snapshot. https://prediction.com/news/likud-falls-to-31-as-bennett-lapid-merger-sep-18-2026

- [2026-09-16 to 2026-09-19] Markets have been highly volatile on news events: a Sept 16 Haaretz report alleging Netanyahu had advance October 7 warning first pushed Likud up to 42% odds (from 34%), then reversed sharply as the Bennett-Lapid merger and fresh polling flipped sentiment, dropping Likud to 31-36% within days — evidence of a genuinely volatile, news-driven market rather than a settled consensus. https://prediction.com/news/likud-falls-to-31-as-bennett-lapid-merger-sep-18-2026

- [2026-08-21] Earlier in the cycle, prediction-market tracker Predictionhunt/Predictmarketcap data showed swings from Likud favored at ~50-64% in late July/early August to Yashar favored at ~45-59% by mid-August after a poll showed 
Kalshi at 57%, Polymarket at 64%... A June poll showed Likud at just 22 seats, yet prediction markets price the party's win probability at 50%
 — illustrating markets have repeatedly overshot and reversed relative to underlying poll numbers over the campaign.

- [2026-09-17] Analysts at Prediction.com caution that "winning" in market terms (largest Knesset faction) differs from "winning" the governing coalition, noting 
a party can lead in seats but fail to form a coalition, and vice versa
, and flag that Likud's disciplined party machine and Netanyahu's control over 8 of the top 29 list slots could let it outperform current polling on election day.

- [2026-09-17] Middle East Forum's tracker separately notes the government bloc trendline has been declining through 2026, with most recent readings (Sept 14–17) clustering around 46-55 government-bloc seats versus peaks near 62-66 in January-August, indicating an erosion of Netanyahu's coalition-bloc strength over the year, independent of the Likud-vs-Yashar party race. https://israelvote.meforum.org/

- [2026-09-21] Coverage from multiple outlets (Irish Times, Ruhrbarone, Cursorinfo) converges on the same structural finding as the trackers: neither bloc can reach 61 seats without Arab-party cooperation, and 
Yashar is projected to top Likud as the largest party
 in several recent polls, though the margin is narrow and unstable.

BOTTOM LINE: Polling aggregators (Middle East Forum's poll-of-polls, JPost's weekly poll roundups) show a genuine toss-up between Likud and Yashar, with Yashar narrowly ahead on average (~23-24 vs ~21-23 seats) but individual polls disagree, including at least one (i24News/Direct Polls, Channel 14/SF+ND) showing Likud clearly ahead; prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) are highly volatile and news-reactive, having swung between ~30% and ~64% for Likud within the past two months, currently sitting around 31-45% for Likud versus a majority implied probability for Yashar/other opposition.

NOT FOUND: No Metaculus community-prediction numbers specifically for this question were located; no Manifold market was found; could not confirm whether prediction markets have a distinct listed contract for "Other" winning outright (data suggests markets treat this mainly as Likud vs. Yashar with small residual probabilities for Together/National Unity/Bennett 2026/Yesh Atid).

**Current polling picture (party level) favors Yashar, but the race has tightened.**

- [2026-09-17] A Jerusalem Post compilation of five polls published that day found 
"Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar holding a slight advantage over Likud at the party level, but with no clear outcome between the blocs."
 Averaged across those five polls, 
"Eisenkot's Yashar led with 22 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud fell to a low of 18"
 in the Channel 13 survey, and the JPost meta-summary states Yashar averaged 22.2 seats to Likud's 21.2. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921
- [2026-09-17] In that same round, a Channel 14 poll (run by Filber, a pollster with Likud ties per Wikipedia's polling-page caveat) was the outlier, showing 
the pro-Netanyahu bloc leading and Likud remaining the largest party with 30 seats
, underscoring house-effect dispersion across pollsters. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921
- [2026-09-17] Haaretz separately reported that in the Channel 13 poll, "Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18," even as the wider pro-Netanyahu bloc (54) edged past Eisenkot's bloc (52). https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-17/ty-article/israeli-election-poll-sees-pro-netanyahu-bloc-edge-ahead-of-eisenkot/000001a0-ad41-dea8-afe0-eded00220000
- [2026-09-08] Haaretz/Midgam poll (503 respondents) showed 
"the bloc led by Eisenkot reaches 57 seats, while the Netanyahu-led bloc captures 52,"
 with Yashar's party-level lead over Likud increasing versus prior weeks. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-08/ty-article/poll-yashar-increases-lead-over-likud-eisenkot-bloc-projected-to-win-57-seats/000001a0-7e31-db0b-a1f2-7eb995c20000
- [~2026-09-08/09] A Maariv/Lazar poll had 
"Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, continued to lead with 25 seats, up from 23 in the previous poll,"
 while 
"Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, remained at 20 seats."
 https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-907949
- [~2026-08-13] A Direct Polls/i24News survey was a notable outlier showing Likud ahead: 
"the most notable poll of the week was conducted by i24NEWS and Direct Polls... it showed Netanyahu's Likud leading the race with 27 seats, while Eisenkot's Yashar received 22."
 https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908444
- [2026-09-21] Times of Israel/ToI poll found the two parties tied at 23 seats each, with 
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar would each get 23 seats if elections were held now," while "the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Eisenkot had 56 seats, while the current coalition led by Likud had 52."
 https://www.timesofisrael.com/toi-poll-finds-likud-and-yashar-neck-and-neck-on-23-seats-as-deadlock-continues/
- [2026-08-06] Even in an earlier August Madad poll, 
"Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party remains the largest, with 23 seats, while Likud is projected to win 22 seats, down one from the previous survey,"
 showing Yashar's lead is not a brand-new phenomenon but has persisted for weeks. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-08-06/ty-article/poll-opposition-bloc-slips-to-58-seats-as-zionist-home-misses-threshold/0000019f-d5ca-d315-a1df-ffeedf480000
- [2026-09-21] Reviewing the raw Wikipedia poll-aggregation table (fieldwork late Aug–early Sept) confirms the same pattern across nearly every non-Filber pollster: Yashar (listed as "Dems"/"Yashar" columns) consistently posts low-to-mid 20s, ahead of Likud's low-to-mid 20s or high teens, while only Filber/Channel 14 polls (flagged for a Likud-affiliated operator under investigation in Case 4000) consistently show Likud far ahead (30–33 seats). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election
- [2026-09-21] Irish Times analysis states plainly that "the centrist Yashar party, led by former General Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to top Likud as the largest party," reinforcing that the consensus reading of the polling landscape is a Yashar plurality, even though neither bloc has a majority. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/09/21/can-anyone-end-the-netanyahu-era/
- [2026-09-21] Head-to-head preference polling also favors Eisenkot: a Kantar poll for Kan (Sept 6) found "38% of respondents supported Eisenkot over Netanyahu's 35% in a direct comparison," suggesting the personal popularity driving Yashar's numbers is durable, not a one-poll fluke.

BOTTOM LINE: Across the large majority of independent pollsters (Channel 12, 13, 16, Kan, Maariv/Lazar, Zman Yisrael, Madad, Times of Israel) over the past six weeks, Eisenkot's Yashar has consistently polled at or slightly above Likud (typically 21–26 vs. Likud's 18–23), making Yashar the current polling favourite to be the largest party, with Likud's strongest showings confined mainly to the Likud-linked Filber/Channel 14 house.

NOT FOUND: No post-September 17 polls newer than the Sept 21 ToI survey were located; no official campaign-finance or turnout data; no field polling from the final two weeks before the Oct 27 vote (not yet available given today's date).

Case for an upset: **Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot)** overtaking Likud as the largest single party.

- [2026-09-08] A Channel 12 News poll showed 
Yashar would be the largest party in the next Knesset with 25 seats, extending its lead over Likud, which is projected to win 21 seats, down from 23
. haaretz.com
- [2026-09-17] The most recent Haaretz-reported poll (Channel 13) found 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18, its lowest tally in recent months
, even though the pro-Netanyahu bloc as a whole led 54-52. haaretz.com
- [2026-09-16/17] Jerusalem Post's aggregation of five post-list-closing polls found 
five polls released after Israel's party lists closed show a fragmented race, with Gadi Eisenkot leading most surveys... The Kan News poll also placed Eisenkot's Yashar party in first place, with 25 seats
. jpost.com
- [2026-09-17] Averaging that batch of polls, JPost calculated 
Eisenkot's Yashar averaged 22.2 seats, ahead of Likud's 21.2
, i.e. Yashar leads on average, not just in isolated polls. jpost.com
- [2026-09-10] An earlier five-poll average (post primaries/list closing) showed an even wider gap: 
Eisenkot's Yashar leads with an average of 23.6 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud with 21.8
. jpost.com
- [2026-08-19] Yashar first overtook Likud in a Kan News poll following the Likud primaries, with 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party emerging as the largest party with 24 seats following Monday's contentious Likud primary... Likud remained in second place with 23 seats
. jpost.com
- [2026-08-06] Haaretz's poll tracker showed the trend was already visible weeks earlier: 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party remains the largest, with 23 seats, while Likud is projected to win 22 seats, down one from the previous survey
. haaretz.com
- [2026-09-17] Leadership polling reinforces this: a Channel 14 (SF+ND) poll from Sept 17 gave 
Netanyahu 55, Eisenkot 29
 on preferred PM among named options, showing Eisenkot as a credible national figure even where Likud/Netanyahu retain a leadership edge. en.wikipedia.org
- [2026-09-21] Contextually, coverage frames the election as extremely close with neither bloc able to secure a majority, noting 
Current polls project a fragmented landscape where neither the pro-Netanyahu block nor the anti-Netanyahu opposition block can secure a majority on its own
 — a dynamic in which Yashar, not Likud, has topped most seat-count polls for over six weeks. ruhrbarone.de
- Counter-evidence exists for Likud: the i24News/Direct Polls series is a persistent outlier showing Likud ahead. On 2026-09-09 it found 
Likud would remain Israel's largest party with 27 seats... Yashar ranks second with 22 seats, five behind Likud
, and the Wikipedia tracker's Channel 14 (Filber) series — noted for a pro-Likud house effect since it is run by a Netanyahu-affiliated pollster — has also consistently shown Likud far ahead, e.g. 31-33 seats for Likud vs. Yashar in the low-to-mid 20s through late August. en.wikipedia.org
- Despite the pro-Netanyahu house effects of two pollsters (Channel 14/Filber and i24/Direct Polls), the majority of independent outlets (Channel 12/Kan, Channel 13, Channel 16, Maariv, Walla, HaHadashot 12, Zman Yisrael) have shown Yashar leading Likud in nearly every survey since mid-August 2026, a pattern that has persisted for over a month into late September.

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest evidence-backed upset case is that Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) — not Likud — is actually the current polling frontrunner: in the large majority of independent polls since mid-August 2026 (Kan, Channel 12, Channel 13, Maariv, Walla, HaHadashot 12), Yashar has led Likud by 2-7 seats, with poll averages putting Yashar around 22-24 seats vs. Likud's 18-22, meaning the "upset" relative to Likud's status as current largest party would actually align with the current polling baseline rather than defy it.

NOT FOUND: No fetch-confirmed poll from after 2026-09-17 was found in this search (most recent verified data point is the Sept 17 Channel 13 poll and Sept 20-21 news commentary referencing "recent months" polling, not a new numeric poll); no polling-average aggregator (e.g., a formal poll-of-polls) beyond individual outlet averages was located.

13 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-09-21] Israeli Arab Parties Could Decide October 2026 Election Amid 'Apartheid' Claims
Ruhrbarone — https://www.ruhrbarone.de/wie-die-israelische-parlamentswahl-das-geschwaetz-vom-apartheidstaat-widerlegt/267124/
  - According to the German news outlet Ruhrbarone, the upcoming Israeli parliamentary election on October 27, 2026, is being framed as a 'fateful election' that challenges international accusations of Israel being an 'apartheid state' by highlighting the political influence of Arab parties.
  - The Knesset has 120 seats, and a majority of 61 is required to form a government.
  - Current polls project a fragmented landscape where neither the pro-Netanyahu block nor the anti-Netanyahu opposition block can secure a majority on its own, making the Arab vote decisive.
  - The pro-Netanyahu 'Government Block' is projected to hold 52 seats, with a range of 48 to 64 depending on the poll, including parties such as Likud led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mafdal under Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Otzma Yehudit led by Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the new 'Amcha Yisrael' party founded by former General Ofer Winter in August 2026.
  - The non-Arab anti-Netanyahu 'Gush HaShinuy' (Block of Change) is also projected at 52 seats, comprising the centrist 'Yashar!' founded by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, the 'Beyachad' alliance uniting Yesh Atid and Bennett 2026, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats led by former General Yair Golan.
  - The 'United List' (HaRishima HaMeshutefet), an Arab alliance formed in August 2026 by Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, is polling between 7 and 8 seats to overcome the 3.25% threshold and represent the Arab minority, which comprises approximately 20% of the population.
  - Additionally, the 'Ra'am' party, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to win about 5 seats and has indicated a willingness to join coalitions to secure budget improvements for the Arab sector.
  - Due to the deadlock between the two main blocks, the article notes that Arab parties could act as the 'swing vote' to determine who forms the next government in Jerusalem.

[2026-09-21] Israel's Critical October 2026 Election: Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot Amidst Arab Party Alliance
The Irish Times — https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/09/21/can-anyone-end-the-netanyahu-era/
  - Israel is heading into a critical election on October 27, 2026, following three years of multi-front wars and social upheaval that have damaged its global image.
  - Current polls show Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's bloc polling a maximum of 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while the anti-Netanyahu 'change bloc' falls short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
  - The centrist Yashar party, led by former General Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to top Likud as the largest party.
  - Political deadlock is a major risk, as small right-wing parties hovering near the 3.25% threshold could determine the outcome; if they fail to pass, the result could shift in favor of the change bloc.
  - To avoid a repeat of the 2019-2022 stalemate where Netanyahu served as caretaker PM for 17 months, Eisenkot has proposed a government relying on Arab party support (abstention or absence from key votes) rather than direct coalition membership.
  - A significant development is the alliance between Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List (Ra'am), and Yoav Segalovitz, a former police commissioner and Jewish paratrooper, who joined the party to tackle surging crime in Arab towns.
  - While 75% of Israeli Arabs support Arab parties in government, over 70% of Jewish voters oppose it.
  - The right-wing, including Netanyahu's Likud and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, has condemned the alliance, with Likud submitting a petition to disqualify Ra'am and Abbas from the elections.
  - Netanyahu, who faces corruption charges and an international arrest warrant regarding the Gaza war, has vowed to block a Palestinian state.
  - President Yitzhak Herzog has called for moderation, warning against a divisive campaign.

[2026-09-21] Israel's October 2026 Elections: Netanyahu Faces Former Military Leaders Amid War and Security Debates
Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля — https://cursorinfo.co.il/israel-news/netaniyagu-atakuyut-so-vseh-storon-chto-zhdet-izrail/
  - Israel is preparing for Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, held against the backdrop of the ongoing war initiated by the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and deep political divisions.
  - Former military leaders, including Reserve Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, former Prime Ministers Naftal Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, and former Chief of Staff Yair Golan, are the primary challengers to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
  - According to a Kantar poll for Kan published on September 6, 38% of respondents supported Eisenkot over Netanyahu's 35% in a direct comparison.
  - The election system requires parties to surpass a 3.25% threshold to gain seats in the 120-member Knesset, with a coalition of 61 seats needed to form a government.
  - A Walla poll from September 9 showed Eisenkot's 'Yesh Atid' (likely 'Yesh Atid' or 'Yesh' as per text) at 25 seats, Netanyahu's 'Likud' at 21, the Bennett-Lapid 'Bayahad' list at 14, and Lieberman's 'Yisrael Beiteinu' and Golan's 'Democrats' at 9 each.
  - The central campaign issue remains accountability for the October 7 security failure, with Netanyahu claiming he was not warned, while opponents demand answers.
  - A controversy involving alleged warnings from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed before October 7 was dismissed by Netanyahu's office as a lie, with legal action threatened.
  - The election is expected to be influenced by small parties and potential coalitions involving Arab parties or religious groups, with a specific internal dispute over mandatory military service for yeshiva students.
  - A June 2026 study by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that 55% of Israelis view internal disagreements as the country's main threat, and nearly 60% fear internal violence.
  - If no coalition can be formed, a repeat election scenario similar to 2019-2020 is possible.

[2026-09-20] Israeli Knesset Elections 2026: Tight Polls Between Netanyahu and Eisenkot
الحرة — https://alhurra.com/40821
  - With Israeli Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, polls indicate a highly competitive race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp and his opponents, with no side holding a decisive advantage.
  - According to the latest poll by the Israeli Broadcasting Authority 'Kan' (published last Monday), both Netanyahu's camp and the opposing camp are projected to win 52 seats each, while two Arab lists are expected to secure 12 seats combined, and the 'Yozma Hendel' and 'Yaron Zelikha' list is projected to gain four seats.
  - The election uses a proportional representation system in a single district for 120 Knesset seats, with a 3.25% threshold (equivalent to four seats) required to enter parliament.
  - No party has won an absolute majority since the first election in 1949, making coalition building essential, as a government requires support from at least 61 MKs.
  - In the opposition camp, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot leads the 'Yesh Atid' (Straight) party, which currently holds no seats but is projected to win 24, positioning him as the main challenger to Netanyahu.
  - Other parties in the opposition include the centrist-right 'Yachad' (Together) alliance led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid, projected to win 12 seats; the left-wing 'Democrats' party led by Yair Golan, projected to win 8 seats; and Avigdor Lieberman's 'Yisrael Beiteinu', also projected to win 8 seats.
  - In Netanyahu's camp, the Likud party is projected to win 20 seats, down from 32 in the 2022 election.
  - Netanyahu has attempted to unify right-wing parties, forming a technical alliance between Betzalel Smotrich's 'Religious Zionism' and Moshe Feiglin's 'Zehut' list, projected to win six seats.
  - However, he failed to unite with Itamar Ben Gvir's 'Jewish Power' party (projected to win 8 seats) or convince Ofer Winter's 'Your Israel' party (projected to win 4 seats) to join his coalition.
  - The 'Your Israel' list is close to the threshold, and Netanyahu has intensified his campaign against Winter, fearing he might fail to cross the threshold or ally with Lieberman.

[2026-09-20] Netanyahu's Re-election Hopes Dim as Israel Approaches October 27 General Election
時事ドットコム — https://www.jiji.com/jc/article
  - Israel is preparing for general elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing significant challenges to his tenure.
  - The race is between Netanyahu's right-wing forces and a centrist coalition led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.
  - Since the October 2023 Hamas attack and the subsequent expansion of military operations into Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, public focus has shifted to the government's accountability for the surprise attack and its security policies.
  - On September 17, 2026, Netanyahu emphasized the necessity of completing his military objectives, including the destruction of Hamas and the overthrow of the Iranian regime.
  - Conversely, Eisenkot has criticized Netanyahu for evading responsibility for the security failures.
  - According to polling data cited by Israeli media, Eisenkot's centrist party, 'Yashar,' is projected to win an average of 22.2 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to win 21.2 seats.
  - However, the broader right-wing bloc, including parties supporting Netanyahu, is expected to hold 54.4 seats, surpassing the 51 seats held by anti-Netanyahu centrist forces.
  - Consequently, forming a new government will likely require coalition negotiations involving Arab parties that do not belong to either major bloc.

[2026-09-20] Netanyahu Faces Political Crossroads Ahead of October 2026 Israeli Elections
Dostor — https://www.dostor.org/5708431
  - Israeli voters are set to head to the polls on October 27, 2026, for a potentially historic Knesset election that could determine the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a report by the Israeli news source Dostor citing The Economist.
  - The article highlights that Netanyahu's Likud party faces a close race with the new Yashir party, led by former Israeli General Gadi Eisenkot, whose support is reportedly on par with Likud's.
  - Netanyahu's governing coalition, described as 'extreme' in the text, has lost significant public backing, with estimates suggesting he may fail to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
  - The election system requires parties to surpass a 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset; failure to do so renders votes wasted.
  - Key political dynamics include the potential for opposition parties to form a coalition government to oust Netanyahu and his allies, including hardline religious and extremist factions.
  - Netanyahu, running for his 12th term as Likud leader, is noted as Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister, having completed a four-year term—a rarity in Israeli politics marked by frequent early elections.
  - His coalition partners, particularly ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, face declining popularity due to their opposition to mandatory military service for religious youth.
  - The Religious Zionism party, an ally of Netanyahu, risks falling below the 3.25% threshold and losing Knesset representation.
  - Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot, who previously served in Netanyahu’s war cabinet on Gaza before resigning over strategic disagreements, is emerging as a centrist figure capable of attracting voters from both right and center.
  - Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who led a diverse coalition from 2021 to 2022, is also a candidate, positioning himself as a unifier of nationalist and centrist factions.

[2026-09-10] Netanyahu Faces Election Deficit in Israel as Opposition Leads in October 2026 Poll
Sözcü Gazetesi — https://www.sozcu.com.tr/israilde-iktidar-blogu-geride-netanyahuya-soguk-dus-p357048
  - According to a poll reported by Israel's Kanal 12 television, the opposition bloc is projected to lead the upcoming early general election in Israel, scheduled for October 27, 2026, by securing 57 seats compared to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition's projected 52 seats.
  - The article attributes Netanyahu's decline in support to his leadership style, described as moving 'from war to war,' his failure to respond to controversial remarks by cabinet members such as Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and his administration's continuous military campaigns.
  - The election will determine which of the 38 participating parties can form a government, as a majority of 61 seats is required.
  - Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party is projected to win the most seats with 25, followed by Netanyahu's Likud Party with 21 seats.
  - Other projected winners include Naftali Bennett's Hadash Party (13 seats), Yair Golan's Democratic Party (10 seats), and Avigdor Liberman's Israel Our Home Party (9 seats).
  - Ultra-Orthodox parties are also expected to perform well, with United Torah Judaism at 8 seats and Shas at 7 seats.
  - The poll indicates that approximately 13 parties will cross the electoral threshold.
  - Despite the opposition bloc reaching 68 seats, the article notes that forming a coalition remains difficult because most Jewish parties rule out cooperation with Arab parties, which are projected to win a combined 11 seats (7 for the Joint List and 4 for Mansur Abbas's Ra'am).

[2026-09-10] Israeli Poll Shows No Clear Winner Ahead of October 27 Elections
Yeni Şafak — https://www.yenisafak.com/dunya/netanyahuya-soguk-dus-israildeki-son-secim-anketi-sonuclari-yayinlandi-4854784
  - According to a poll conducted by Kanal 12 and published on September 10, 2026, ahead of the early general elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, in Israel, no single political bloc has secured the 61 seats required to form a government.
  - The poll projects that the opposition bloc, led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party, will win 57 seats, while Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's governing bloc is projected to hold 52 seats.
  - Yashar Party is forecast to lead with 25 seats, followed by Netanyahu's Likud Party with 21 seats.
  - Other projected seat counts include Naftali Bennett's Together Party (13), Yair Golan's Democrats Party (10), Avigdor Liberman's Israel Our Home Party (9), United Torah Judaism (8), Shas (7), Jewish Power (6), Religious Zionism (5), and Amcha Yisrael (5).
  - Arab parties are expected to win a combined 11 seats, with the Joint List projected to gain 7 and Mansur Abbas's United Arab List (RAAM) to gain 4.
  - Although parties outside Netanyahu's bloc could theoretically combine for 68 seats, the summary notes that most Jewish party leaders have ruled out cooperation with Arab legislators, complicating coalition formation.
  - A total of 38 parties are running, with polls suggesting approximately 13 will cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.

[2026-09-09] Israel's General Election Begins with Netanyahu's Future in Focus
毎日新聞 — https://mainichi.jp/articles/20260909/k00/00m/030/220000c
  - Israel's general election, scheduled for October 27, 2026, officially began after candidate registration closed on September 8, with 38 political parties and coalitions submitting their lists to the Central Elections Committee.
  - This election marks the first since the conflict in Gaza began in October 2023, with the key focus being whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will secure another term.
  - According to a poll conducted by local broadcaster Channel 12 on September 7, the centrist opposition party 'Yashar,' led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is predicted to win the most seats with 25 out of 120 in the Knesset.
  - Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party is expected to secure 21 seats, while the entire ruling coalition is projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.
  - Analysts predict that Jewish opposition parties combined will win 57 seats, leaving the remainder primarily for Arab opposition parties.
  - Due to differing views on security and the Palestinian issue, it remains unclear if Jewish and Arab opposition parties will form a coalition to replace the current government.
  - Under Israel's national single-district proportional representation system, no single party has ever won a majority, and the President typically requests the leader of the party most likely to form a coalition to attempt to build a government.
  - Despite reports of Netanyahu facing difficulties, his experience and ability to build majorities suggest he may still attempt a comeback.

[2026-08-10] Israel's Complex Electoral System and Raam's Potential Kingmaker Role in 2026 Vote
AFP — http://doc.afp.com/C44G8T4
  - On October 27, Israel will hold elections for the 26th Knesset, described by observers as the most significant vote since the state's founding in 1948.
  - The 120-seat parliament is elected via a pure proportional representation system where the entire country serves as a single constituency.
  - To enter the Knesset, parties must overcome a 3.25% threshold (Sperrklausel), equivalent to roughly four seats; votes for parties below this are neutralized.
  - The Bader-Ofer method is used to distribute remaining seats, a mechanism that previously helped Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc secure a comfortable majority of 64 seats in 2022 despite a near-even split of 300,000 excess votes (6% of total votes).
  - No single party has ever won the absolute majority of 61 seats, necessitating coalition governments.
  - Current polls from the news site 'Sman Jisrael' suggest a tight race, with the new party 'Yashar' (led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot) polling at two seats, just ahead of Netanyahu's Likud.
  - The polls indicate the anti-Netanyahu opposition could win 57 seats, but the United Arab List (Raam), led by Mansur Abbas, is seen as a potential 'kingmaker' with a projected six seats.
  - If Raam joins a coalition, the opposition could reach 63 seats.
  - A strategic move by Raam to include Jewish candidate Joav Segalovitz, a former public security secretary who successfully reduced crime in Arab communities, is expected to mobilize both Jewish and Arab voters, particularly given the recent sharp rise in murder rates in these areas under Interior Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.

[… older articles omitted]

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity

## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (FAILED)
  Error: Unknown

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Opinion polling for the 2026 Israeli legislative election:
  In the run up to the 2026 Israeli legislative election, various organisations are conducting opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the twenty-fifth Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls. The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2022 Israeli legislative election, held on 1 November, to the present day. In keeping with the election silence law, no polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00.

  Yashar (political party):
  Yashar, stylized as Yashar! with Eisenkot, is a centrist political party in Israel led by Gadi Eisenkot. Founded by Eisenkot in September 2025, the former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces and National Unity Knesset member, the party will contest the 2026 Israeli legislative election on 27 October. Emerging as a major challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, the party has risen in opinion polls, positioning Eisenkot as a leading contender for the premiership.

  Opinion polling for the 2022 Israeli legislative election:
  


In the run up to the 2022 Israeli legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the 24th Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, to determine the makeup of the 26th Knesset, the legislature of Israel. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election) in recent months suggests a close race between the two leading parties, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's [Likud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Likud) and [Yashar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yashar_\(political_party\)), a new centrist party that was formed in 2025 by [Gadi Eisenkot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadi_Eisenkot), a former government minister and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff.

As a newly created party, Yashar currently holds no seats in the Knesset. Likud, by contrast, is a longstanding major player in Israeli politics, having been formed in 1973 and in government for most of Israel's recent history. Likud currently holds 32 seats, more than any other party, and leads the current government.

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the political party that receives more seats than any other in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

## Fine Print
If a party other than Likud or Yashar wins a plurality of seats, the question will resolve as **Other.** If the elections are canceled or postponed such that results are unavailable before January 1, 2027, the question will be **annulled**.

## Options
  - Likud
  - Yashar
  - Other

## Research tool outputs (raw; the resolution-source read is the status-quo anchor)
## Tool outputs

### resolution_source (FAILED)
  Error: Unknown

### wikipedia_lookup (SUCCESS)
Wikipedia (3 lookups):

  Opinion polling for the 2026 Israeli legislative election:
  In the run up to the 2026 Israeli legislative election, various organisations are conducting opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the twenty-fifth Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls. The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2022 Israeli legislative election, held on 1 November, to the present day. In keeping with the election silence law, no polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00.

  Yashar (political party):
  Yashar, stylized as Yashar! with Eisenkot, is a centrist political party in Israel led by Gadi Eisenkot. Founded by Eisenkot in September 2025, the former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces and National Unity Knesset member, the party will contest the 2026 Israeli legislative election on 27 October. Emerging as a major challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, the party has risen in opinion polls, positioning Eisenkot as a leading contender for the premiership.

  Opinion polling for the 2022 Israeli legislative election:
  


In the run up to the 2022 Israeli legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the 24th Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

### claude_news (SUCCESS)

## Prediction markets on this question (Polymarket)
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity
- RELATED (different resolution, context only): "Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" → Yes: n/a, Volume: $0 — anonymized party, likely same event but unspecified party identity

## Question dates and conventions
Dates: opened 2026-09-21; forecasting closes 2026-10-27; resolves 2026-10-28. Only events AFTER the open date can satisfy the criteria; assume the event has NOT happened unless a source shows it has. A question phrased 'before <date>' or 'by <date>' asks whether it happens between now and that date. The deadline for the outcome is the RESOLUTION date, not the close date.

## Recent news (AskNews, raw article summaries, newest first — read these directly)
13 AskNews articles (newest first; 6 from the last 48 h, 10 from the archive). Summaries are AskNews's own; dates are publication dates.

[2026-09-21] Israeli Arab Parties Could Decide October 2026 Election Amid 'Apartheid' Claims
Ruhrbarone — https://www.ruhrbarone.de/wie-die-israelische-parlamentswahl-das-geschwaetz-vom-apartheidstaat-widerlegt/267124/
  - According to the German news outlet Ruhrbarone, the upcoming Israeli parliamentary election on October 27, 2026, is being framed as a 'fateful election' that challenges international accusations of Israel being an 'apartheid state' by highlighting the political influence of Arab parties.
  - The Knesset has 120 seats, and a majority of 61 is required to form a government.
  - Current polls project a fragmented landscape where neither the pro-Netanyahu block nor the anti-Netanyahu opposition block can secure a majority on its own, making the Arab vote decisive.
  - The pro-Netanyahu 'Government Block' is projected to hold 52 seats, with a range of 48 to 64 depending on the poll, including parties such as Likud led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mafdal under Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, Otzma Yehudit led by Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the new 'Amcha Yisrael' party founded by former General Ofer Winter in August 2026.
  - The non-Arab anti-Netanyahu 'Gush HaShinuy' (Block of Change) is also projected at 52 seats, comprising the centrist 'Yashar!' founded by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, the 'Beyachad' alliance uniting Yesh Atid and Bennett 2026, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats led by former General Yair Golan.
  - The 'United List' (HaRishima HaMeshutefet), an Arab alliance formed in August 2026 by Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, is polling between 7 and 8 seats to overcome the 3.25% threshold and represent the Arab minority, which comprises approximately 20% of the population.
  - Additionally, the 'Ra'am' party, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected to win about 5 seats and has indicated a willingness to join coalitions to secure budget improvements for the Arab sector.
  - Due to the deadlock between the two main blocks, the article notes that Arab parties could act as the 'swing vote' to determine who forms the next government in Jerusalem.

[2026-09-21] Israel's Critical October 2026 Election: Netanyahu vs. Eisenkot Amidst Arab Party Alliance
The Irish Times — https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/09/21/can-anyone-end-the-netanyahu-era/
  - Israel is heading into a critical election on October 27, 2026, following three years of multi-front wars and social upheaval that have damaged its global image.
  - Current polls show Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's bloc polling a maximum of 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while the anti-Netanyahu 'change bloc' falls short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern.
  - The centrist Yashar party, led by former General Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to top Likud as the largest party.
  - Political deadlock is a major risk, as small right-wing parties hovering near the 3.25% threshold could determine the outcome; if they fail to pass, the result could shift in favor of the change bloc.
  - To avoid a repeat of the 2019-2022 stalemate where Netanyahu served as caretaker PM for 17 months, Eisenkot has proposed a government relying on Arab party support (abstention or absence from key votes) rather than direct coalition membership.
  - A significant development is the alliance between Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List (Ra'am), and Yoav Segalovitz, a former police commissioner and Jewish paratrooper, who joined the party to tackle surging crime in Arab towns.
  - While 75% of Israeli Arabs support Arab parties in government, over 70% of Jewish voters oppose it.
  - The right-wing, including Netanyahu's Likud and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, has condemned the alliance, with Likud submitting a petition to disqualify Ra'am and Abbas from the elections.
  - Netanyahu, who faces corruption charges and an international arrest warrant regarding the Gaza war, has vowed to block a Palestinian state.
  - President Yitzhak Herzog has called for moderation, warning against a divisive campaign.

[2026-09-21] Israel's October 2026 Elections: Netanyahu Faces Former Military Leaders Amid War and Security Debates
Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля — https://cursorinfo.co.il/israel-news/netaniyagu-atakuyut-so-vseh-storon-chto-zhdet-izrail/
  - Israel is preparing for Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, held against the backdrop of the ongoing war initiated by the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and deep political divisions.
  - Former military leaders, including Reserve Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot, former Prime Ministers Naftal Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, and former Chief of Staff Yair Golan, are the primary challengers to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
  - According to a Kantar poll for Kan published on September 6, 38% of respondents supported Eisenkot over Netanyahu's 35% in a direct comparison.
  - The election system requires parties to surpass a 3.25% threshold to gain seats in the 120-member Knesset, with a coalition of 61 seats needed to form a government.
  - A Walla poll from September 9 showed Eisenkot's 'Yesh Atid' (likely 'Yesh Atid' or 'Yesh' as per text) at 25 seats, Netanyahu's 'Likud' at 21, the Bennett-Lapid 'Bayahad' list at 14, and Lieberman's 'Yisrael Beiteinu' and Golan's 'Democrats' at 9 each.
  - The central campaign issue remains accountability for the October 7 security failure, with Netanyahu claiming he was not warned, while opponents demand answers.
  - A controversy involving alleged warnings from UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed before October 7 was dismissed by Netanyahu's office as a lie, with legal action threatened.
  - The election is expected to be influenced by small parties and potential coalitions involving Arab parties or religious groups, with a specific internal dispute over mandatory military service for yeshiva students.
  - A June 2026 study by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that 55% of Israelis view internal disagreements as the country's main threat, and nearly 60% fear internal violence.
  - If no coalition can be formed, a repeat election scenario similar to 2019-2020 is possible.

[2026-09-20] Israeli Knesset Elections 2026: Tight Polls Between Netanyahu and Eisenkot
الحرة — https://alhurra.com/40821
  - With Israeli Knesset elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, polls indicate a highly competitive race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp and his opponents, with no side holding a decisive advantage.
  - According to the latest poll by the Israeli Broadcasting Authority 'Kan' (published last Monday), both Netanyahu's camp and the opposing camp are projected to win 52 seats each, while two Arab lists are expected to secure 12 seats combined, and the 'Yozma Hendel' and 'Yaron Zelikha' list is projected to gain four seats.
  - The election uses a proportional representation system in a single district for 120 Knesset seats, with a 3.25% threshold (equivalent to four seats) required to enter parliament.
  - No party has won an absolute majority since the first election in 1949, making coalition building essential, as a government requires support from at least 61 MKs.
  - In the opposition camp, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot leads the 'Yesh Atid' (Straight) party, which currently holds no seats but is projected to win 24, positioning him as the main challenger to Netanyahu.
  - Other parties in the opposition include the centrist-right 'Yachad' (Together) alliance led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and opposition leader Yair Lapid, projected to win 12 seats; the left-wing 'Democrats' party led by Yair Golan, projected to win 8 seats; and Avigdor Lieberman's 'Yisrael Beiteinu', also projected to win 8 seats.
  - In Netanyahu's camp, the Likud party is projected to win 20 seats, down from 32 in the 2022 election.
  - Netanyahu has attempted to unify right-wing parties, forming a technical alliance between Betzalel Smotrich's 'Religious Zionism' and Moshe Feiglin's 'Zehut' list, projected to win six seats.
  - However, he failed to unite with Itamar Ben Gvir's 'Jewish Power' party (projected to win 8 seats) or convince Ofer Winter's 'Your Israel' party (projected to win 4 seats) to join his coalition.
  - The 'Your Israel' list is close to the threshold, and Netanyahu has intensified his campaign against Winter, fearing he might fail to cross the threshold or ally with Lieberman.

[2026-09-20] Netanyahu's Re-election Hopes Dim as Israel Approaches October 27 General Election
時事ドットコム — https://www.jiji.com/jc/article
  - Israel is preparing for general elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing significant challenges to his tenure.
  - The race is between Netanyahu's right-wing forces and a centrist coalition led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.
  - Since the October 2023 Hamas attack and the subsequent expansion of military operations into Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, public focus has shifted to the government's accountability for the surprise attack and its security policies.
  - On September 17, 2026, Netanyahu emphasized the necessity of completing his military objectives, including the destruction of Hamas and the overthrow of the Iranian regime.
  - Conversely, Eisenkot has criticized Netanyahu for evading responsibility for the security failures.
  - According to polling data cited by Israeli media, Eisenkot's centrist party, 'Yashar,' is projected to win an average of 22.2 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to win 21.2 seats.
  - However, the broader right-wing bloc, including parties supporting Netanyahu, is expected to hold 54.4 seats, surpassing the 51 seats held by anti-Netanyahu centrist forces.
  - Consequently, forming a new government will likely require coalition negotiations involving Arab parties that do not belong to either major bloc.

[2026-09-20] Netanyahu Faces Political Crossroads Ahead of October 2026 Israeli Elections
Dostor — https://www.dostor.org/5708431
  - Israeli voters are set to head to the polls on October 27, 2026, for a potentially historic Knesset election that could determine the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a report by the Israeli news source Dostor citing The Economist.
  - The article highlights that Netanyahu's Likud party faces a close race with the new Yashir party, led by former Israeli General Gadi Eisenkot, whose support is reportedly on par with Likud's.
  - Netanyahu's governing coalition, described as 'extreme' in the text, has lost significant public backing, with estimates suggesting he may fail to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
  - The election system requires parties to surpass a 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset; failure to do so renders votes wasted.
  - Key political dynamics include the potential for opposition parties to form a coalition government to oust Netanyahu and his allies, including hardline religious and extremist factions.
  - Netanyahu, running for his 12th term as Likud leader, is noted as Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister, having completed a four-year term—a rarity in Israeli politics marked by frequent early elections.
  - His coalition partners, particularly ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties, face declining popularity due to their opposition to mandatory military service for religious youth.
  - The Religious Zionism party, an ally of Netanyahu, risks falling below the 3.25% threshold and losing Knesset representation.
  - Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot, who previously served in Netanyahu’s war cabinet on Gaza before resigning over strategic disagreements, is emerging as a centrist figure capable of attracting voters from both right and center.
  - Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who led a diverse coalition from 2021 to 2022, is also a candidate, positioning himself as a unifier of nationalist and centrist factions.

[2026-09-10] Netanyahu Faces Election Deficit in Israel as Opposition Leads in October 2026 Poll
Sözcü Gazetesi — https://www.sozcu.com.tr/israilde-iktidar-blogu-geride-netanyahuya-soguk-dus-p357048
  - According to a poll reported by Israel's Kanal 12 television, the opposition bloc is projected to lead the upcoming early general election in Israel, scheduled for October 27, 2026, by securing 57 seats compared to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition's projected 52 seats.
  - The article attributes Netanyahu's decline in support to his leadership style, described as moving 'from war to war,' his failure to respond to controversial remarks by cabinet members such as Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and his administration's continuous military campaigns.
  - The election will determine which of the 38 participating parties can form a government, as a majority of 61 seats is required.
  - Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party is projected to win the most seats with 25, followed by Netanyahu's Likud Party with 21 seats.
  - Other projected winners include Naftali Bennett's Hadash Party (13 seats), Yair Golan's Democratic Party (10 seats), and Avigdor Liberman's Israel Our Home Party (9 seats).
  - Ultra-Orthodox parties are also expected to perform well, with United Torah Judaism at 8 seats and Shas at 7 seats.
  - The poll indicates that approximately 13 parties will cross the electoral threshold.
  - Despite the opposition bloc reaching 68 seats, the article notes that forming a coalition remains difficult because most Jewish parties rule out cooperation with Arab parties, which are projected to win a combined 11 seats (7 for the Joint List and 4 for Mansur Abbas's Ra'am).

[2026-09-10] Israeli Poll Shows No Clear Winner Ahead of October 27 Elections
Yeni Şafak — https://www.yenisafak.com/dunya/netanyahuya-soguk-dus-israildeki-son-secim-anketi-sonuclari-yayinlandi-4854784
  - According to a poll conducted by Kanal 12 and published on September 10, 2026, ahead of the early general elections scheduled for October 27, 2026, in Israel, no single political bloc has secured the 61 seats required to form a government.
  - The poll projects that the opposition bloc, led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party, will win 57 seats, while Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's governing bloc is projected to hold 52 seats.
  - Yashar Party is forecast to lead with 25 seats, followed by Netanyahu's Likud Party with 21 seats.
  - Other projected seat counts include Naftali Bennett's Together Party (13), Yair Golan's Democrats Party (10), Avigdor Liberman's Israel Our Home Party (9), United Torah Judaism (8), Shas (7), Jewish Power (6), Religious Zionism (5), and Amcha Yisrael (5).
  - Arab parties are expected to win a combined 11 seats, with the Joint List projected to gain 7 and Mansur Abbas's United Arab List (RAAM) to gain 4.
  - Although parties outside Netanyahu's bloc could theoretically combine for 68 seats, the summary notes that most Jewish party leaders have ruled out cooperation with Arab legislators, complicating coalition formation.
  - A total of 38 parties are running, with polls suggesting approximately 13 will cross the threshold to enter the Knesset.

[2026-09-09] Israel's General Election Begins with Netanyahu's Future in Focus
毎日新聞 — https://mainichi.jp/articles/20260909/k00/00m/030/220000c
  - Israel's general election, scheduled for October 27, 2026, officially began after candidate registration closed on September 8, with 38 political parties and coalitions submitting their lists to the Central Elections Committee.
  - This election marks the first since the conflict in Gaza began in October 2023, with the key focus being whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will secure another term.
  - According to a poll conducted by local broadcaster Channel 12 on September 7, the centrist opposition party 'Yashar,' led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is predicted to win the most seats with 25 out of 120 in the Knesset.
  - Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party is expected to secure 21 seats, while the entire ruling coalition is projected to fall short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.
  - Analysts predict that Jewish opposition parties combined will win 57 seats, leaving the remainder primarily for Arab opposition parties.
  - Due to differing views on security and the Palestinian issue, it remains unclear if Jewish and Arab opposition parties will form a coalition to replace the current government.
  - Under Israel's national single-district proportional representation system, no single party has ever won a majority, and the President typically requests the leader of the party most likely to form a coalition to attempt to build a government.
  - Despite reports of Netanyahu facing difficulties, his experience and ability to build majorities suggest he may still attempt a comeback.

[2026-08-10] Israel's Complex Electoral System and Raam's Potential Kingmaker Role in 2026 Vote
AFP — http://doc.afp.com/C44G8T4
  - On October 27, Israel will hold elections for the 26th Knesset, described by observers as the most significant vote since the state's founding in 1948.
  - The 120-seat parliament is elected via a pure proportional representation system where the entire country serves as a single constituency.
  - To enter the Knesset, parties must overcome a 3.25% threshold (Sperrklausel), equivalent to roughly four seats; votes for parties below this are neutralized.
  - The Bader-Ofer method is used to distribute remaining seats, a mechanism that previously helped Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc secure a comfortable majority of 64 seats in 2022 despite a near-even split of 300,000 excess votes (6% of total votes).
  - No single party has ever won the absolute majority of 61 seats, necessitating coalition governments.
  - Current polls from the news site 'Sman Jisrael' suggest a tight race, with the new party 'Yashar' (led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot) polling at two seats, just ahead of Netanyahu's Likud.
  - The polls indicate the anti-Netanyahu opposition could win 57 seats, but the United Arab List (Raam), led by Mansur Abbas, is seen as a potential 'kingmaker' with a projected six seats.
  - If Raam joins a coalition, the opposition could reach 63 seats.
  - A strategic move by Raam to include Jewish candidate Joav Segalovitz, a former public security secretary who successfully reduced crime in Arab communities, is expected to mobilize both Jewish and Arab voters, particularly given the recent sharp rise in murder rates in these areas under Interior Minister Itamar Ben Gvir.

[… older articles omitted]

## Research reports (one per dimension: web search + page reads, dated, with sources)
### CURRENT STATE
- [2026-09-21] Wikipedia's polling tracker confirms the 2026 election is set for October 27, 2026, to elect the 26th Knesset, with the outgoing 25th Knesset having 
completed its full four-year term without early dissolution since 1988, ending the prolonged political crisis of 2018–2022
. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

- [2026-09-17] The most recent dated individual poll found (Channel 13/HaMadad) shows Yashar leading Likud head-to-head: 
the bloc of parties supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will win 54 seats, narrowly leading the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, which receives 52 seats. However, Likud drops to 18 seats, one fewer than in the previous poll and its lowest tally in recent months
; 
Eisenkot's Yashar party is the largest with 22 seats, followed by Likud with 18
. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-17/ty-article/israeli-election-poll-sees-pro-netanyahu-bloc-edge-ahead-of-eisenkot/000001a0-ad41-dea8-afe0-eded00220000

- [2026-09-17] Same-week aggregate (five polls, Sept 17) shows Yashar consistently ahead of Likud in seat projections: 
Across the five polls, Eisenkot's Yashar averaged 22.2 seats, ahead of Likud's 21.2, while the bloc picture remained inconclusive with the Netanyahu leading by a thin margin
. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921

- [2026-09-18] Likud escalated its legal/campaign fight against Yashar: 
Likud filed a petition against Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, demanding the removal of three election campaign videos about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conduct in the period leading up to the October 7 massacre
, submitted to the Central Elections Committee chairman; as of filing "no ruling has been issued." https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909066

- [2026-09-10] The five polls taken immediately after Knesset party lists closed (Sept 9-10) put Yashar ahead in seat count in 4 of 5 surveys, with only i24NEWS/Direct Polls showing Likud on top: 
Less than 24 hours after the closing of the Knesset 2026 party lists, five polls published Wednesday night presented a highly fragmented political picture. In four of them, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party is the largest party, while in an i24NEWS poll, the Likud surged into first place by a significant margin
; averaged, 
Netanyahu's bloc, including Winter, stands at 53.6 seats, compared with 53.4 for the Zionist opposition bloc
. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908282

- [2026-09-09] The single outlier poll favoring Likud: i24NEWS/Direct Polls found 
If elections for the Knesset were held today, Likud would remain Israel's largest party with 27 seats, according to an i24NEWS poll conducted on September 9, 2026, by Direct Polls. Yashar ranks second with 22 seats, five behind Likud
, though overall 
the results point to a divided Knesset in which no party comes close to being able to form a government on its own
. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israeli-elections/artc-i24news-poll-likud-leads-with-27-seats-yashar-wins-22

- [2026-09-17] Leadership polling (Channel 14) still gives Netanyahu a big personal lead for PM preference in an open-ended question: figures show Netanyahu at 55 vs Eisenkot at 29 in that poll (per Wikipedia's leadership polling tracker), indicating a split between personal PM preference and party-seat projections. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election

- [2026-09-21] Bloc-level reporting continues to show a near-even split: 
The bloc map: 52 seats for Eisenkot's bloc, 52 for Netanyahu's bloc, 12 for the Arab parties, and 4 for Hendel and Zelekha
 in a recent KAN poll cited by JPost, underscoring that neither bloc has a clear majority. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908282

- [2026-09-21] The Irish Times reports that despite fragmentation, 
The centrist Yashar party, led by former General Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to top Likud as the largest party
 in current polling ahead of the vote. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/09/21/can-anyone-end-the-netanyahu-era/

- [2026-09-21] Wikipedia's current-seats baseline table (pre-election) still lists Likud as the largest incumbent party with 32 seats, versus Yashar's zero incumbent seats as a new party — the starting point against which the projected overtaking is measured. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election

BOTTOM LINE: As of Sept 17-21, 2026, the large majority of published polls (Channel 12, Channel 13, KAN, Walla, HaMadad) show Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party leading Likud in projected seats (roughly 21-25 vs Likud's 18-22), with only the i24NEWS/Direct Polls survey showing Likud ahead; the two governing blocs remain locked in a near 50-50 tie, and Likud is actively contesting Yashar's campaign messaging in court, signaling a genuinely close and unresolved Likud-vs-Yashar race heading into the final weeks.

NOT FOUND: No poll published after September 18, 2026 was located (most recent dated survey is the Sept 17 Channel 13/HaMadad poll); no official Central Election Committee ruling on the Likud-vs-Yashar ad petition; no confirmation of election-day or postponement status beyond the scheduled October 27, 2026 date.

### BASE RATE
- [2026-09-20] Poll aggregation of 15 pollsters (fieldwork Sept 3–17) by the Middle East Forum's tracker shows Yashar and Likud statistically tied for first place, with Yashar averaging 24 seats (range 20–25) and Likud averaging 23 seats (range 18–31 across individual polls). 
Netanyahu bloc 52, Opposition 52, Arab parties 12, average of 15 polling houses, fieldwork 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-18.
 This is the single most comprehensive primary poll-of-polls source available (311 polls tracked in 2026).

- [2026-09-18] A same-day survey of four different pollsters found a nine-seat spread on which party leads: 
Maariv/Lazar gives Yashar 23 seats and Likud 18; Israel Hayom/Kantar puts them at 22 and 20; Zman Yisrael/Tatika gives them 24 and 22. i24NEWS/Direct Polls reverses the order, with Likud on 27 and Yashar on 21.
 This illustrates real house-effect variance rather than a settled consensus on which of the two parties will finish first.

- [2026-09-21] Prediction markets currently favor Yashar over Likud for outright plurality, though the exact reading varies by venue and date, ranging from roughly 60-62% Yashar/39-40% Likud on Polymarket to narrower splits on Kalshi around the low-to-mid 50s in mid-September — indicating markets see this as a real toss-up leaning slightly to the newcomer, not a landslide either way.

- [2026-09-17] Reuters-style bloc analysis (Haaretz) shows a poll where 
the pro-Netanyahu bloc is projected to win 54 seats to lead the race, while Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18
 — a reminder that a party can lead in seats while its bloc still trails or ties, and vice versa, adding genuine uncertainty to a "most seats" (not "most bloc seats") resolution.

- [2006 precedent] The only close historical analogue to a brand-new, poll-leading centrist challenger unseating a long-dominant incumbent party is Kadima (2006): 
established on 24 November 2005 by moderates from Likud... it became the largest party in the Knesset after the 2006 elections, winning 29 of the 120 seats, and led a coalition government.
 That episode is frequently invoked as the outside-view case for Yashar, showing new-party breakthroughs from Likud defectors/military figures are not unprecedented in Israel, though they remain rare (roughly once in ~20 elections since 1949).

- [Historical base rate] Outside that one case, no genuinely new party (first election) has topped the seat count in any of the ~25 Knesset elections since 1949; established Likud or Labor/Alignment/Kadima-successor blocs have almost always finished first, making a first-time party win a low-base-rate event in the raw historical record, even though Yashar is currently polling competitively.

- [Polling error patterns] Analysis of past Israeli elections shows polling misses tend to favor major "bloc-consolidating" parties late in the race: 
Yesh Atid... outperformed the average of polls by eight seats, winning 19 seats, compared to just 11 which it had been projected to win
 in 2013, and similarly 
the Likud was projected to win 22 seats, while in reality it won 30
 in 2015 — both cases of late "big party" consolidation. This pattern is relevant here: both Likud and Yashar are the two "consolidator" parties in their respective blocs in 2026, so late swing could break either way, but historically the incumbent PM's party (Netanyahu/Likud specifically) has a track record of outperforming final pre-election polls in tight races.

- [2026-09-18] Substantive uncertainty also stems from repeated documented systematic errors: 
In 2021, the whole industry overestimated Joint List, New Hope, and Yamina, and underestimated Labor, B&W, RZP, and Meretz. In 2020, every single pollster underestimated Likud and the Joint List's popularity
 — suggesting Likud in particular has a modest history of being underestimated by pre-election polling in multiple recent cycles (2013, 2015, 2020), a favorable outside-view signal for Likud relative to current polling parity with Yashar.

- [2026-09-17] Independent of the top-line horse race, both blocs remain stuck near 52 seats apiece with neither reaching the 61-seat majority threshold, per multiple trackers, meaning the "most seats" winner may not determine the governing coalition — a separate but related base-rate fact: 
Likud won 32 seats in the most recent (2022) election
, its highest total in over a decade, but has now polled below that level continuously through 2026 per Statista's Kantar-based tracking.

- [2026-09-17] Aggregated tracking of the incumbent's polling trajectory shows a sustained decline: 
A political poll conducted on August 16th, 2026, suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu's party would have won 23 of the Knesset's 120 seats had an election been held that day. In the preceding weeks, its support ranged from 21 to 24 seats. Likud won 32 seats in the parliamentary election of November 2022
 — a roughly 9-seat erosion from its last electoral performance, historically unusual for a sitting PM's party this close to an election, though not unprecedented in Israel's volatile multi-party system.

BOTTOM LINE: The outside view offers mixed signals: new "clean-slate" challenger parties have only once before (Kadima, 2006) leapfrogged an incumbent to win a plurality, making an outright Yashar victory a historically rare pattern; but Israel's recent polling-error history shows established "big-tent" incumbents like Likud are frequently underestimated in final polls, while genuine toss-up dynamics (nine-seat spreads between simultaneous polls, near-tied prediction markets) mean the base rate alone cannot decisively favor either Likud or Yashar — this is one of the closest top-two races in Israel's recorded polling history.

NOT FOUND: A rigorous statistical study specifically quantifying "how often the pre-election poll leader in seats has gone on to actually win the most seats" in Israeli elections; final verified Kalshi contract prices (source access limited to secondary summaries, some of unclear reliability, e.g. prediction.com aggregation); any authoritative comparative base rate for "military-hero-led breakaway party" challenges beyond the single Kadima case.

### KEY FACTORS
**Key causal drivers determining which party (Likud vs Yashar vs Other) wins the most seats on Oct 27, 2026:**

1. **Head-to-head Yashar vs. Likud polling trend.** This is the single biggest driver. 
Reflecting a broad rightward shift among the Israeli electorate, Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot is winning voters on the right and leading in the polls, with survey after survey putting Yashar slightly ahead or neck-and-neck with Likud, making Eisenkot the opposition figure with the clearest path to leading the next Knesset's largest party.
 The most recent polls (mid-to-late September) show Yashar consistently at 18-25 seats vs Likud's 18-27, with most surveys favoring Yashar: [2026-09-17] 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18
, source: haaretz.com. Only one outlier poll (i24NEWS/Direct Polls) in mid-September showed Likud clearly ahead (27 vs 22).

2. **Right-wing vote fragmentation is squeezing Likud's base.** [2026-09-14] 
Survey after survey has put Yashar slightly ahead or neck-and-neck with Likud, making Eisenkot the opposition figure with the clearest path, not only to leading the next Knesset's largest party, but to forming the next government and replacing Netanyahu as prime minister.
 Times of Israel notes 
Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot is winning voters on the right and leading in the polls by presenting a party that in many ways resembles the Likud of yesteryear
, drawing directly from Likud's traditional voter pool while smaller right parties (Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Ofer Winter's "People of Israel", Zehut) compete for the remainder, further diluting Likud specifically (not the whole bloc).

3. **Candidate-list finalization (completed early September) locked in the competitive landscape.** [2026-09-14] Party lists closed 
in the final weeks before last week's deadline
, with no major mergers; Likud's primary (Aug 17) produced a slate seen as favoring Netanyahu loyalists, while 
Likud is slated to win significantly fewer seats than it currently holds, with opinion polls suggesting Netanyahu's party will win between 22 and 24 seats, meaning many of the 32 current Likud lawmakers are likely to leave the Knesset
 (Times of Israel, Aug 18). Yashar's 40-person slate, unveiled Sept 7, deliberately targets ex-Likud/right-leaning voters rather than the traditional center-left, directly threatening Likud's core support (Times of Israel, Sept 14).

4. **Bloc-level deadlock does not by itself decide the "largest party" question**, but shapes turnout/tactical dynamics. [2026-09-21] Ruhrbarone/AskNews summary indicates 
the pro-Netanyahu bloc is projected around 52 seats and the anti-Netanyahu bloc also around 52, with neither able to secure a majority, making the Arab vote decisive
 for governing power — but this is a separate question from which single party tops the seat count.

5. **Small-party threshold survival (3.25%) affects seat totals but not the top-line Likud/Yashar race directly.** Multiple JPost reports [2026-09-08/09] note that lists like Ofer Winter's "People of Israel," Hendel-Zelekha, Blue and White, and the Haredi Public party are hovering near or below threshold, which reallocates a few seats among surviving parties but does not change which of Likud or Yashar leads.

**What would have to happen for each outcome:**
- **Yashar to win:** current trend (most Sept polls) simply continuing to election day — Yashar has led in the majority of individual polls since early August.
- **Likud to win:** a late swing back toward Netanyahu of the kind seen only in the outlier i24NEWS poll, or an "October surprise" (security event, unity/merger, or damaging revelation against Eisenkot) reversing the ongoing right-wing voter migration to Yashar.
- **"Other" to win:** would require both Likud and Yashar to underperform relative to a third party — no polling data support this; no party besides these two has ever led a seat-count poll this cycle.

BOTTOM LINE: Polling through late September 2026 is genuinely close but tilts more often toward Yashar than Likud as the largest single party, driven by Yashar's success in peeling right-leaning, ex-Likud voters away from Netanyahu; a Likud win remains plausible but would require a reversal of the current trend, while an "Other" party win has no support in current data.

NOT FOUND: No official CEC (Central Elections Committee) certified poll-of-polls aggregate; no post-September 17 poll data (most recent found is dated Sept 17); no direct fetch of the live Wikipedia polling tables (attempted but page returned only boilerplate, not the data table with the most recent entries).

### EXPERT VIEW
- [2026-09-20] Middle East Forum's "poll of polls" tracker (aggregating 15 polling houses, fieldwork Sept 3–17) puts Yashar at a **24-seat average** (mean 22.9, range 20–25) versus Likud's **23-seat average** (mean 22.5, range 18–31), a statistical tie with Yashar slightly ahead; the Netanyahu bloc averages 53 seats, opposition 54, Arab parties 13 — no bloc reaches the 61-seat majority. https://israelvote.meforum.org/

- [2026-09-17] Latest individual polls compiled by the tracker show a split picture: five of six late-September surveys (Kantar/Kan, LRI+P4A/Maariv, Yossi Tatika/Zman Yisrael, MP+TM+SN+A/Channel 13, Midgam R&C/HaHadashot 12) put Yashar ahead of Likud (22–24 vs 18–22 seats), while Channel 14's SF+ND poll and i24News/Direct Polls show Likud leading (30–31 vs 20–21 seats). https://israelvote.meforum.org/

- [2026-09-21] Jerusalem Post reporting on the same week of five polls confirms 
"Across the five polls, Eisenkot's Yashar averaged 22.2 seats, ahead of Likud's 21.2, while the bloc picture remained inconclusive with the Netanyahu leading by a thin margin."
 One outlier, i24NEWS/Direct Polls, 
showed Likud taking first place by a significant margin, with Netanyahu's Likud leading the race with 27 seats to Eisenkot's Yashar receiving 22.


- [2026-09-19] Prediction markets (aggregated by Prediction.com from Polymarket and Kalshi) price Likud's chance of winning the most seats at roughly **31–36%**, down sharply from 42% just three days earlier and from a peak near 60-64% in early August; the article states 
"Prediction markets for the next Israeli legislative election have cut Likud's implied probability from 42% to 31% over the past three days, the steepest three-day decline this contract has recorded."


- [2026-09-19] Individual venue prices: Polymarket lists Likud "YES" at 39¢ (~39%) and Kalshi at 45¢ (~45%), for a blended average of 36%, implying Yashar (and other opposition options combined) hold the balance of probability (~55-60%) as of that snapshot. https://prediction.com/news/likud-falls-to-31-as-bennett-lapid-merger-sep-18-2026

- [2026-09-16 to 2026-09-19] Markets have been highly volatile on news events: a Sept 16 Haaretz report alleging Netanyahu had advance October 7 warning first pushed Likud up to 42% odds (from 34%), then reversed sharply as the Bennett-Lapid merger and fresh polling flipped sentiment, dropping Likud to 31-36% within days — evidence of a genuinely volatile, news-driven market rather than a settled consensus. https://prediction.com/news/likud-falls-to-31-as-bennett-lapid-merger-sep-18-2026

- [2026-08-21] Earlier in the cycle, prediction-market tracker Predictionhunt/Predictmarketcap data showed swings from Likud favored at ~50-64% in late July/early August to Yashar favored at ~45-59% by mid-August after a poll showed 
Kalshi at 57%, Polymarket at 64%... A June poll showed Likud at just 22 seats, yet prediction markets price the party's win probability at 50%
 — illustrating markets have repeatedly overshot and reversed relative to underlying poll numbers over the campaign.

- [2026-09-17] Analysts at Prediction.com caution that "winning" in market terms (largest Knesset faction) differs from "winning" the governing coalition, noting 
a party can lead in seats but fail to form a coalition, and vice versa
, and flag that Likud's disciplined party machine and Netanyahu's control over 8 of the top 29 list slots could let it outperform current polling on election day.

- [2026-09-17] Middle East Forum's tracker separately notes the government bloc trendline has been declining through 2026, with most recent readings (Sept 14–17) clustering around 46-55 government-bloc seats versus peaks near 62-66 in January-August, indicating an erosion of Netanyahu's coalition-bloc strength over the year, independent of the Likud-vs-Yashar party race. https://israelvote.meforum.org/

- [2026-09-21] Coverage from multiple outlets (Irish Times, Ruhrbarone, Cursorinfo) converges on the same structural finding as the trackers: neither bloc can reach 61 seats without Arab-party cooperation, and 
Yashar is projected to top Likud as the largest party
 in several recent polls, though the margin is narrow and unstable.

BOTTOM LINE: Polling aggregators (Middle East Forum's poll-of-polls, JPost's weekly poll roundups) show a genuine toss-up between Likud and Yashar, with Yashar narrowly ahead on average (~23-24 vs ~21-23 seats) but individual polls disagree, including at least one (i24News/Direct Polls, Channel 14/SF+ND) showing Likud clearly ahead; prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) are highly volatile and news-reactive, having swung between ~30% and ~64% for Likud within the past two months, currently sitting around 31-45% for Likud versus a majority implied probability for Yashar/other opposition.

NOT FOUND: No Metaculus community-prediction numbers specifically for this question were located; no Manifold market was found; could not confirm whether prediction markets have a distinct listed contract for "Other" winning outright (data suggests markets treat this mainly as Likud vs. Yashar with small residual probabilities for Together/National Unity/Bennett 2026/Yesh Atid).

### FAVORITE CASE
**Current polling picture (party level) favors Yashar, but the race has tightened.**

- [2026-09-17] A Jerusalem Post compilation of five polls published that day found 
"Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar holding a slight advantage over Likud at the party level, but with no clear outcome between the blocs."
 Averaged across those five polls, 
"Eisenkot's Yashar led with 22 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud fell to a low of 18"
 in the Channel 13 survey, and the JPost meta-summary states Yashar averaged 22.2 seats to Likud's 21.2. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921
- [2026-09-17] In that same round, a Channel 14 poll (run by Filber, a pollster with Likud ties per Wikipedia's polling-page caveat) was the outlier, showing 
the pro-Netanyahu bloc leading and Likud remaining the largest party with 30 seats
, underscoring house-effect dispersion across pollsters. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908921
- [2026-09-17] Haaretz separately reported that in the Channel 13 poll, "Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18," even as the wider pro-Netanyahu bloc (54) edged past Eisenkot's bloc (52). https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-17/ty-article/israeli-election-poll-sees-pro-netanyahu-bloc-edge-ahead-of-eisenkot/000001a0-ad41-dea8-afe0-eded00220000
- [2026-09-08] Haaretz/Midgam poll (503 respondents) showed 
"the bloc led by Eisenkot reaches 57 seats, while the Netanyahu-led bloc captures 52,"
 with Yashar's party-level lead over Likud increasing versus prior weeks. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-08/ty-article/poll-yashar-increases-lead-over-likud-eisenkot-bloc-projected-to-win-57-seats/000001a0-7e31-db0b-a1f2-7eb995c20000
- [~2026-09-08/09] A Maariv/Lazar poll had 
"Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, continued to lead with 25 seats, up from 23 in the previous poll,"
 while 
"Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, remained at 20 seats."
 https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-907949
- [~2026-08-13] A Direct Polls/i24News survey was a notable outlier showing Likud ahead: 
"the most notable poll of the week was conducted by i24NEWS and Direct Polls... it showed Netanyahu's Likud leading the race with 27 seats, while Eisenkot's Yashar received 22."
 https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908444
- [2026-09-21] Times of Israel/ToI poll found the two parties tied at 23 seats each, with 
"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar would each get 23 seats if elections were held now," while "the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Eisenkot had 56 seats, while the current coalition led by Likud had 52."
 https://www.timesofisrael.com/toi-poll-finds-likud-and-yashar-neck-and-neck-on-23-seats-as-deadlock-continues/
- [2026-08-06] Even in an earlier August Madad poll, 
"Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party remains the largest, with 23 seats, while Likud is projected to win 22 seats, down one from the previous survey,"
 showing Yashar's lead is not a brand-new phenomenon but has persisted for weeks. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-08-06/ty-article/poll-opposition-bloc-slips-to-58-seats-as-zionist-home-misses-threshold/0000019f-d5ca-d315-a1df-ffeedf480000
- [2026-09-21] Reviewing the raw Wikipedia poll-aggregation table (fieldwork late Aug–early Sept) confirms the same pattern across nearly every non-Filber pollster: Yashar (listed as "Dems"/"Yashar" columns) consistently posts low-to-mid 20s, ahead of Likud's low-to-mid 20s or high teens, while only Filber/Channel 14 polls (flagged for a Likud-affiliated operator under investigation in Case 4000) consistently show Likud far ahead (30–33 seats). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election
- [2026-09-21] Irish Times analysis states plainly that "the centrist Yashar party, led by former General Gadi Eisenkot, is projected to top Likud as the largest party," reinforcing that the consensus reading of the polling landscape is a Yashar plurality, even though neither bloc has a majority. https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/09/21/can-anyone-end-the-netanyahu-era/
- [2026-09-21] Head-to-head preference polling also favors Eisenkot: a Kantar poll for Kan (Sept 6) found "38% of respondents supported Eisenkot over Netanyahu's 35% in a direct comparison," suggesting the personal popularity driving Yashar's numbers is durable, not a one-poll fluke.

BOTTOM LINE: Across the large majority of independent pollsters (Channel 12, 13, 16, Kan, Maariv/Lazar, Zman Yisrael, Madad, Times of Israel) over the past six weeks, Eisenkot's Yashar has consistently polled at or slightly above Likud (typically 21–26 vs. Likud's 18–23), making Yashar the current polling favourite to be the largest party, with Likud's strongest showings confined mainly to the Likud-linked Filber/Channel 14 house.

NOT FOUND: No post-September 17 polls newer than the Sept 21 ToI survey were located; no official campaign-finance or turnout data; no field polling from the final two weeks before the Oct 27 vote (not yet available given today's date).

### UPSET CASE
Case for an upset: **Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot)** overtaking Likud as the largest single party.

- [2026-09-08] A Channel 12 News poll showed 
Yashar would be the largest party in the next Knesset with 25 seats, extending its lead over Likud, which is projected to win 21 seats, down from 23
. haaretz.com
- [2026-09-17] The most recent Haaretz-reported poll (Channel 13) found 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar emerges as the largest individual party with 22 seats as Likud slips to 18, its lowest tally in recent months
, even though the pro-Netanyahu bloc as a whole led 54-52. haaretz.com
- [2026-09-16/17] Jerusalem Post's aggregation of five post-list-closing polls found 
five polls released after Israel's party lists closed show a fragmented race, with Gadi Eisenkot leading most surveys... The Kan News poll also placed Eisenkot's Yashar party in first place, with 25 seats
. jpost.com
- [2026-09-17] Averaging that batch of polls, JPost calculated 
Eisenkot's Yashar averaged 22.2 seats, ahead of Likud's 21.2
, i.e. Yashar leads on average, not just in isolated polls. jpost.com
- [2026-09-10] An earlier five-poll average (post primaries/list closing) showed an even wider gap: 
Eisenkot's Yashar leads with an average of 23.6 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud with 21.8
. jpost.com
- [2026-08-19] Yashar first overtook Likud in a Kan News poll following the Likud primaries, with 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party emerging as the largest party with 24 seats following Monday's contentious Likud primary... Likud remained in second place with 23 seats
. jpost.com
- [2026-08-06] Haaretz's poll tracker showed the trend was already visible weeks earlier: 
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party remains the largest, with 23 seats, while Likud is projected to win 22 seats, down one from the previous survey
. haaretz.com
- [2026-09-17] Leadership polling reinforces this: a Channel 14 (SF+ND) poll from Sept 17 gave 
Netanyahu 55, Eisenkot 29
 on preferred PM among named options, showing Eisenkot as a credible national figure even where Likud/Netanyahu retain a leadership edge. en.wikipedia.org
- [2026-09-21] Contextually, coverage frames the election as extremely close with neither bloc able to secure a majority, noting 
Current polls project a fragmented landscape where neither the pro-Netanyahu block nor the anti-Netanyahu opposition block can secure a majority on its own
 — a dynamic in which Yashar, not Likud, has topped most seat-count polls for over six weeks. ruhrbarone.de
- Counter-evidence exists for Likud: the i24News/Direct Polls series is a persistent outlier showing Likud ahead. On 2026-09-09 it found 
Likud would remain Israel's largest party with 27 seats... Yashar ranks second with 22 seats, five behind Likud
, and the Wikipedia tracker's Channel 14 (Filber) series — noted for a pro-Likud house effect since it is run by a Netanyahu-affiliated pollster — has also consistently shown Likud far ahead, e.g. 31-33 seats for Likud vs. Yashar in the low-to-mid 20s through late August. en.wikipedia.org
- Despite the pro-Netanyahu house effects of two pollsters (Channel 14/Filber and i24/Direct Polls), the majority of independent outlets (Channel 12/Kan, Channel 13, Channel 16, Maariv, Walla, HaHadashot 12, Zman Yisrael) have shown Yashar leading Likud in nearly every survey since mid-August 2026, a pattern that has persisted for over a month into late September.

BOTTOM LINE: The strongest evidence-backed upset case is that Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) — not Likud — is actually the current polling frontrunner: in the large majority of independent polls since mid-August 2026 (Kan, Channel 12, Channel 13, Maariv, Walla, HaHadashot 12), Yashar has led Likud by 2-7 seats, with poll averages putting Yashar around 22-24 seats vs. Likud's 18-22, meaning the "upset" relative to Likud's status as current largest party would actually align with the current polling baseline rather than defy it.

NOT FOUND: No fetch-confirmed poll from after 2026-09-17 was found in this search (most recent verified data point is the Sept 17 Channel 13 poll and Sept 20-21 news commentary referencing "recent months" polling, not a new numeric poll); no polling-average aggregator (e.g., a formal poll-of-polls) beyond individual outlet averages was located.

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (0) Resolution check: do the sources show the outcome already decided as of today? If so, which option and by which source.
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Prediction markets are a prior, not an anchor.** If the evidence lists a SAME QUESTION market for these options, treat its prices as a strong prior and name the specific evidence it lacks whenever you move away from it. A RELATED market is context only. If no market is listed, there is none — do not assume one.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "Likud": <prob>,
        "Yashar": <prob>,
        "Other": <prob>
  }
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).