Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

1. [sq1 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Organizations received roughly 42% of Peace Prizes from 2000-2025, versus ~22-29% across the prize's full history.
2. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Of 287 nominees for 2026, 79 (28%) are organizations and 208 are individuals.
3. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2025 prize went to an individual, María Corina Machado, cited for civilian courage in Latin America.
4. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Bookmaker top-5 favorites contained the eventual laureate only ~27% of the time from 2015-2025.
5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search (Jul-Sep 2026) returned no coverage of 2026 Nobel Peace Prize shortlists, PRIO picks, or bookmaker odds.
6. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Sitting heads of state or government have won roughly 10% of all Peace Prizes historically.
7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] The US completed nine consecutive nights of strikes on Iran in July 2026; Iran launched drones at Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump received FIFA's inaugural Peace Prize before the World Cup, a decision reported as triggering widespread international ridicule.
9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] 2025 laureate Machado gifted Trump her Nobel medal before US military action against Maduro; Venezuelan opposition was later largely sidelined.
10. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] US Ambassador Rose cut all contact with Poland's parliamentary speaker for saying Trump did not deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.
11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Russia launched one of its largest ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv in July 2026 amid escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.
12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump's foreign policy is characterized by CNN as transactional ('get America paid'), including opaque Venezuelan oil arrangements.

## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

Information gaps:
  - No current 2026 betting odds or Polymarket/Kalshi favorites
  - No PRIO director shortlist or expert speculation for 2026
  - No status update on Sudan, Gaza ceasefire, or press-freedom candidates
  - No data on Norwegian Nobel Committee statements or composition changes

Key uncertainties:
  - Whether any major peace deal (Iran, Ukraine, Gaza) is concluded before October
  - Committee reaction to sustained US pressure over Trump candidacy
  - Organization vs individual choice given ~42% recent org share
  - Likelihood of an unheralded laureate outside all shortlists

You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.

## Question
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The [Nobel Peace Prize](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/) is an internationally recognised award to 

> the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.

A total of [287 candidates have been nominated](https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/) for this year’s Prize. Of those, 208 are individuals and 79 are organisations. However, [disclosure of information about nominations is restricted](https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/), which leads to much speculation about the [possible candidates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nobel_Peace_Prize). 

Since its Inception in 1901, the Nobel Peace Prize has been [awarded 106 times to 143 laureates](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/lists/all-nobel-peace-prizes/), consisting of 112 individuals and 31 organisations. [Seventy-two peace prizes](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/facts/facts-on-the-nobel-peace-prize/) have been awarded to one laureate only, and 34 prizes have been shared by two or three laureates. The 2025 peace laureate was [Maria Corina Machado](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2025/summary/).

## Resolution Criteria
This question will resolve as the recipient of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, expected to be announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on October 9, 2026.

If the prize is awarded to an individual not named in the listed options, this question will resolve as **Other individual**. If it is awarded to a non-individual recipient not named in the listed options, it will resolve as **Other organization**.

If no prize is awarded for any reason this question will be **annulled**.

## Fine Print
If the prize is shared, this question will resolve as the option naming one of the recipients. If more than one recipient is named in the options or if none is, it will resolve according to the recipient listed first in the official announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

## Options
  - Doctors Without Borders
  - Donald J. Trump
  - ICC / ICJ
  - Pope Leo XIV
  - Save the Children
  - Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
  - Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
  - UNRWA
  - Yulia Navalnaya
  - Other organization
  - Other individual

## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.25) Will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded to an organization (rather than solely to individuals)?  — Roughly 30% of prizes go to organizations historically; organizational favorites (UNRWA, Sudan Emergency Response Rooms,
- (w=0.30) Will the 2026 laureate be the pre-announcement betting-market favorite or appear on the PRIO director's shortlist / top-5 of oddsmakers?  — Historically the eventual laureate is on prediction lists only ~30-40% of the time (2025 Machado was a favorite; 2024 Ni
- (w=0.20) Will Donald Trump be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?  — Trump is the most heavily discussed candidate given Gaza ceasefire and other diplomatic claims, yet the Norwegian commit
- (w=0.25) Will the 2026 prize relate primarily to one of the headline conflicts/themes of 2025-26 (Sudan, Gaza/Middle East, Ukraine/Russia, press freedom, or democracy defenders)?  — The committee often signals on the year's dominant crises; identifying the thematic direction narrows the plausible laur

## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | code_execution | STRONG cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Organizations received roughly 42% of Peace Prizes from 2000-2025, versus ~22-29% across the prize's full history.
2. [sq1 | question_description | MODERATE cred 90 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Of 287 nominees for 2026, 79 (28%) are organizations and 208 are individuals.
3. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | MODERATE cred 95 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The 2025 prize went to an individual, María Corina Machado, cited for civilian courage in Latin America.
4. [sq2 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | DATED] Bookmaker top-5 favorites contained the eventual laureate only ~27% of the time from 2015-2025.
5. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Article search (Jul-Sep 2026) returned no coverage of 2026 Nobel Peace Prize shortlists, PRIO picks, or bookmaker odds.
6. [sq3 | code_execution | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Sitting heads of state or government have won roughly 10% of all Peace Prizes historically.
7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] The US completed nine consecutive nights of strikes on Iran in July 2026; Iran launched drones at Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump received FIFA's inaugural Peace Prize before the World Cup, a decision reported as triggering widespread international ridicule.
9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] 2025 laureate Machado gifted Trump her Nobel medal before US military action against Maduro; Venezuelan opposition was later largely sidelined.
10. [sq3 | article_search | WEAK cred 70 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] US Ambassador Rose cut all contact with Poland's parliamentary speaker for saying Trump did not deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.
11. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | RECENT] Russia launched one of its largest ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv in July 2026 amid escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict.
12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Trump's foreign policy is characterized by CNN as transactional ('get America paid'), including opaque Venezuelan oil arrangements.

## Cross-Market Signals

### No signal found

Information gaps:
  - No current 2026 betting odds or Polymarket/Kalshi favorites
  - No PRIO director shortlist or expert speculation for 2026
  - No status update on Sudan, Gaza ceasefire, or press-freedom candidates
  - No data on Norwegian Nobel Committee statements or composition changes

Key uncertainties:
  - Whether any major peace deal (Iran, Ukraine, Gaza) is concluded before October
  - Committee reaction to sustained US pressure over Trump candidacy
  - Organization vs individual choice given ~42% recent org share
  - Likelihood of an unheralded laureate outside all shortlists

## Required pre-forecast walkthrough

Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
  (a) The time left until the question resolves.
  (b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
  (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.

## Calibration guidance

- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.

## Output

Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:

{
  "rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
  "probabilities": {
    "Doctors Without Borders": <prob>,
        "Donald J. Trump": <prob>,
        "ICC / ICJ": <prob>,
        "Pope Leo XIV": <prob>,
        "Save the Children": <prob>,
        "Sudan Emergency Response Rooms": <prob>,
        "Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine": <prob>,
        "UNRWA": <prob>,
        "Yulia Navalnaya": <prob>,
        "Other organization": <prob>,
        "Other individual": <prob>
  }
}

Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).