Treat the outcome as a short-horizon sequential legislative gate (dictamen by early September, then a scheduled floor session, then sufficient votes) but combine the sub-question probabilities as a weighted average because all steps hinge on the same underlying variable: whether the government has decided it has the numbers and urgency to push a vote before September 10. Recent news on dictamen/session status will dominate, with the low-urgency signal from Decree 105/2026 pushing toward NO.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.5M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.2M - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.4K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $189.3K - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.23, Volume: $7.2M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M - "Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $377.7K - "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $2.5M
1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Most recent reporting (~Aug 16, 2026) says the ruling bloc plans to sign the dictamen around August 20 and take the bill to the floor on August 27. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] The August 5 joint plenary began treatment but produced no dictamen; the process has been slower than the government's original goal of enacting the law before end of August. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The bloc's planning foresees continued consultation rounds with Treasury Secretary Carlos Guberman and other Economy officials before signing the report. 4. [sq1 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] All three committees handling expediente CD 6/26 (Budget & Finance, National Economy & Investment, General Legislation) are chaired by the governing coalition or allies. 5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting states that if the committee dictamen emerges, Senate rules would permit a floor session in the week of the 19th (August). 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of the most recent reports (mid-August 2026), no Senate floor vote on the Super RIGI had occurred and no session with it on the agenda was confirmed. 7. [sq2 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Senate rules require at least 7 days between a signed committee dictamen and floor debate, so a dictamen must be signed by ~September 3 for a vote by September 10. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] In Deputies the bill passed 130-107 with backing from UCR, PRO and provincial allies from San Juan, San Luis, Misiones, Salta, Santa Cruz and Tucuman. 9. [sq3 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of 72 Senate seats and must negotiate with governors and other blocs to reach ~37 votes. 10. [sq4 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Decree 105/2026 extended the existing RIGI enrollment deadline to July 8, 2027, reducing time pressure on passing the expanded regime. 11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] One report indicates the regime would only become operative with implementing regulation in the last quarter of 2026, implying a late-2026 timeline. 12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo of the sequential gate (dictamen, session, passage) yields mean ~0.12, rising to ~0.21 conditional on a dictamen being likely. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.5M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.2M - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.4K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $189.3K - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.23, Volume: $7.2M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M - "Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $377.7K - "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $2.5M Information gaps: - No base rate for lag between Argentine Senate dictamen and floor vote for major economic bills - No confirmation whether the dictamen was actually signed around Aug 20 as planned - No vote-count reporting on Senate bloc commitments (governors, PRO/UCR) toward 37 votes - Article search returned entirely irrelevant results; only web_search provided usable Argentine coverage Key uncertainties: - Whether opposition/provincial senators demand amendments forcing return to committee - Whether 2027 Budget or other political events crowd the September agenda - Whether the government judges it has quorum plus 37 votes before Sept 10 - Reliability of single-source Argentine media timeline (Aug 20 dictamen / Aug 27 session)
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will Argentina's Senate pass the 'Super RIGI' bill on or before September 10, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The 'Super RIGI' is a bill expanding Argentina's Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI), the large-investment incentive regime originally created under the 2024 'Ley Bases.' The bill received half-sanction (media sancion) in the Chamber of Deputies on June 24, 2026 (130 in favor, 106 against, 7 abstentions) and was sent to the Senate as expediente CD 6/26. It is handled by a joint plenary of the Budget & Finance, National Economy & Investment, and General Legislation committees -- all chaired by the governing coalition or its allies. A plenary committee meeting on August 5, 2026 began treatment of the bill but did not produce a committee report (dictamen); senators agreed to reconvene and hear Economy Ministry officials.
As of early August 2026, no committee dictamen had been signed and no floor session (sesion) had been scheduled to vote on the bill. Senate rules require at least 7 days between a committee dictamen and a floor debate. President Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of the 72 Senate seats after the October 2025 midterms and lacks an automatic majority, so the government has been negotiating votes. The existing RIGI regime remains in force, with its enrollment deadline extended to July 8, 2027 via Decree 105/2026, reducing time pressure. Argentine Senate voting records are published on the official Senate site and mirrored by open-data trackers such as senadores.argentinadatos.com.
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## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves YES if, as of the end of September 10, 2026 (Argentina time, UTC-3), the Argentine Senate (Senado de la Nacion) has approved the bill known as the 'Super RIGI' (Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones en Nuevas Industrias, entered as expediente CD 6/26, which received half-sanction from the Chamber of Deputies on June 24, 2026) in a floor vote (votacion en general), regardless of whether amendments were introduced. It resolves NO otherwise. A YES requires a Senate general-vote approval of this bill; committee action (dictamen) alone, or approval by the Chamber of Deputies alone, does not count. Resolution is based on the Senate voting record shown at https://senadores.argentinadatos.com/ (a bill titled 'Super RIGI' / 'Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones en Nuevas Industrias' appearing with an approved result -- 'A favor' exceeding the required majority). If that tracker is unavailable, resolution follows the official Senate parliamentary record at senado.gob.ar or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
## Fine Print
If the Senate rejects the bill, or takes no floor vote on it by the end of September 10, 2026 (UTC-3), the question resolves NO. If the Senate approves a version with amendments (requiring the bill to return to the Chamber of Deputies), that still counts as a Senate approval and resolves YES. A vote to send the bill back to committee (mocion de vuelta a comision) is not an approval and does not resolve YES.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.30) Will the Senate joint plenary committees sign a dictamen on expediente CD 6/26 ('Super RIGI') on or before September 3, 2026 (leaving the required 7 days before a floor debate)? — The Senate's 7-day rule between dictamen and floor debate makes an early-September dictamen a near-necessary preconditio
- (w=0.30) Will the Senate formally convene an ordinary or special floor session with the 'Super RIGI' on the agenda (orden del dia / plan de labor) on or before September 10, 2026? — Even with a dictamen, the government must obtain quorum and schedule a session; Argentine Senate sessions are infrequent
- (w=0.25) Will the governing coalition publicly claim/secure the ~37 votes needed for general approval (e.g., agreements with provincial governors and PRO/UCR blocs reported before September 10, 2026)? — LLA holds only ~25% of seats; without negotiated support the government typically avoids bringing the bill to the floor
- (w=0.15) Will there be an absence of significant delaying factors (e.g., no return to committee, no announced postponement to later in 2026, no competing priority such as the 2027 Budget or a political crisis crowding out the agenda) through September 10, 2026? — Decree 105/2026 extended RIGI enrollment to July 2027, removing time pressure; the Senate agenda in September is typical
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Most recent reporting (~Aug 16, 2026) says the ruling bloc plans to sign the dictamen around August 20 and take the bill to the floor on August 27.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] The August 5 joint plenary began treatment but produced no dictamen; the process has been slower than the government's original goal of enacting the law before end of August.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The bloc's planning foresees continued consultation rounds with Treasury Secretary Carlos Guberman and other Economy officials before signing the report.
4. [sq1 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] All three committees handling expediente CD 6/26 (Budget & Finance, National Economy & Investment, General Legislation) are chaired by the governing coalition or allies.
5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting states that if the committee dictamen emerges, Senate rules would permit a floor session in the week of the 19th (August).
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of the most recent reports (mid-August 2026), no Senate floor vote on the Super RIGI had occurred and no session with it on the agenda was confirmed.
7. [sq2 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Senate rules require at least 7 days between a signed committee dictamen and floor debate, so a dictamen must be signed by ~September 3 for a vote by September 10.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] In Deputies the bill passed 130-107 with backing from UCR, PRO and provincial allies from San Juan, San Luis, Misiones, Salta, Santa Cruz and Tucuman.
9. [sq3 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of 72 Senate seats and must negotiate with governors and other blocs to reach ~37 votes.
10. [sq4 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Decree 105/2026 extended the existing RIGI enrollment deadline to July 8, 2027, reducing time pressure on passing the expanded regime.
11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] One report indicates the regime would only become operative with implementing regulation in the last quarter of 2026, implying a late-2026 timeline.
12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo of the sequential gate (dictamen, session, passage) yields mean ~0.12, rising to ~0.21 conditional on a dictamen being likely.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.5M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.2M
- "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K
- "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.4K
- "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $189.3K
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.23, Volume: $7.2M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M
- "Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?" → Yes: 1.00, Volume: $377.7K
- "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $2.5M
Information gaps:
- No base rate for lag between Argentine Senate dictamen and floor vote for major economic bills
- No confirmation whether the dictamen was actually signed around Aug 20 as planned
- No vote-count reporting on Senate bloc commitments (governors, PRO/UCR) toward 37 votes
- Article search returned entirely irrelevant results; only web_search provided usable Argentine coverage
Key uncertainties:
- Whether opposition/provincial senators demand amendments forcing return to committee
- Whether 2027 Budget or other political events crowd the September agenda
- Whether the government judges it has quorum plus 37 votes before Sept 10
- Reliability of single-source Argentine media timeline (Aug 20 dictamen / Aug 27 session)
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Most recent reporting (~Aug 16, 2026) says the ruling bloc plans to sign the dictamen around August 20 and take the bill to the floor on August 27.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] The August 5 joint plenary began treatment but produced no dictamen; the process has been slower than the government\u0027s original goal of enacting the law before end of August.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The bloc\u0027s planning foresees continued consultation rounds with Treasury Secretary Carlos Guberman and other Economy officials before signing the report.\n4. [sq1 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] All three committees handling expediente CD 6/26 (Budget \u0026 Finance, National Economy \u0026 Investment, General Legislation) are chaired by the governing coalition or allies.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting states that if the committee dictamen emerges, Senate rules would permit a floor session in the week of the 19th (August).\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of the most recent reports (mid-August 2026), no Senate floor vote on the Super RIGI had occurred and no session with it on the agenda was confirmed.\n7. [sq2 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Senate rules require at least 7 days between a signed committee dictamen and floor debate, so a dictamen must be signed by ~September 3 for a vote by September 10.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] In Deputies the bill passed 130-107 with backing from UCR, PRO and provincial allies from San Juan, San Luis, Misiones, Salta, Santa Cruz and Tucuman.\n9. [sq3 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of 72 Senate seats and must negotiate with governors and other blocs to reach ~37 votes.\n10. [sq4 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Decree 105/2026 extended the existing RIGI enrollment deadline to July 8, 2027, reducing time pressure on passing the expanded regime.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] One report indicates the regime would only become operative with implementing regulation in the last quarter of 2026, implying a late-2026 timeline.\n12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo of the sequential gate (dictamen, session, passage) yields mean ~0.12, rising to ~0.21 conditional on a dictamen being likely.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.5M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.2M\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $189.3K\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.23, Volume: $7.2M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M\n- \"Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $377.7K\n- \"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $2.5M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base rate for lag between Argentine Senate dictamen and floor vote for major economic bills\n - No confirmation whether the dictamen was actually signed around Aug 20 as planned\n - No vote-count reporting on Senate bloc commitments (governors, PRO/UCR) toward 37 votes\n - Article search returned entirely irrelevant results; only web_search provided usable Argentine coverage\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether opposition/provincial senators demand amendments forcing return to committee\n - Whether 2027 Budget or other political events crowd the September agenda\n - Whether the government judges it has quorum plus 37 votes before Sept 10\n - Reliability of single-source Argentine media timeline (Aug 20 dictamen / Aug 27 session)",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill Argentina\u0027s Senate pass the \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 bill on or before September 10, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nThe \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 is a bill expanding Argentina\u0027s Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI), the large-investment incentive regime originally created under the 2024 \u0027Ley Bases.\u0027 The bill received half-sanction (media sancion) in the Chamber of Deputies on June 24, 2026 (130 in favor, 106 against, 7 abstentions) and was sent to the Senate as expediente CD 6/26. It is handled by a joint plenary of the Budget \u0026 Finance, National Economy \u0026 Investment, and General Legislation committees -- all chaired by the governing coalition or its allies. A plenary committee meeting on August 5, 2026 began treatment of the bill but did not produce a committee report (dictamen); senators agreed to reconvene and hear Economy Ministry officials.\n\nAs of early August 2026, no committee dictamen had been signed and no floor session (sesion) had been scheduled to vote on the bill. Senate rules require at least 7 days between a committee dictamen and a floor debate. President Javier Milei\u0027s La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of the 72 Senate seats after the October 2025 midterms and lacks an automatic majority, so the government has been negotiating votes. The existing RIGI regime remains in force, with its enrollment deadline extended to July 8, 2027 via Decree 105/2026, reducing time pressure. Argentine Senate voting records are published on the official Senate site and mirrored by open-data trackers such as senadores.argentinadatos.com.\n\n`{\"format\":\"llm_question\",\"info\":{\"sdk_version\":\"0.5.2\",\"rating\":{\"quality\":4,\"ambiguity\":3,\"resolvability\":4,\"passes\":true}},\"unique_id\":\"886f7c86-9294-4108-be5d-eaf4567c34a6\"}`\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"41e1720976aca696\", \"sheet_id\": \"172\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves YES if, as of the end of September 10, 2026 (Argentina time, UTC-3), the Argentine Senate (Senado de la Nacion) has approved the bill known as the \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 (Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones en Nuevas Industrias, entered as expediente CD 6/26, which received half-sanction from the Chamber of Deputies on June 24, 2026) in a floor vote (votacion en general), regardless of whether amendments were introduced. It resolves NO otherwise. A YES requires a Senate general-vote approval of this bill; committee action (dictamen) alone, or approval by the Chamber of Deputies alone, does not count. Resolution is based on the Senate voting record shown at https://senadores.argentinadatos.com/ (a bill titled \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 / \u0027Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones en Nuevas Industrias\u0027 appearing with an approved result -- \u0027A favor\u0027 exceeding the required majority). If that tracker is unavailable, resolution follows the official Senate parliamentary record at senado.gob.ar or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf the Senate rejects the bill, or takes no floor vote on it by the end of September 10, 2026 (UTC-3), the question resolves NO. If the Senate approves a version with amendments (requiring the bill to return to the Chamber of Deputies), that still counts as a Senate approval and resolves YES. A vote to send the bill back to committee (mocion de vuelta a comision) is not an approval and does not resolve YES.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.30) Will the Senate joint plenary committees sign a dictamen on expediente CD 6/26 (\u0027Super RIGI\u0027) on or before September 3, 2026 (leaving the required 7 days before a floor debate)? \u2014 The Senate\u0027s 7-day rule between dictamen and floor debate makes an early-September dictamen a near-necessary preconditio\n- (w=0.30) Will the Senate formally convene an ordinary or special floor session with the \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 on the agenda (orden del dia / plan de labor) on or before September 10, 2026? \u2014 Even with a dictamen, the government must obtain quorum and schedule a session; Argentine Senate sessions are infrequent\n- (w=0.25) Will the governing coalition publicly claim/secure the ~37 votes needed for general approval (e.g., agreements with provincial governors and PRO/UCR blocs reported before September 10, 2026)? \u2014 LLA holds only ~25% of seats; without negotiated support the government typically avoids bringing the bill to the floor \n- (w=0.15) Will there be an absence of significant delaying factors (e.g., no return to committee, no announced postponement to later in 2026, no competing priority such as the 2027 Budget or a political crisis crowding out the agenda) through September 10, 2026? \u2014 Decree 105/2026 extended RIGI enrollment to July 2027, removing time pressure; the Senate agenda in September is typical\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Most recent reporting (~Aug 16, 2026) says the ruling bloc plans to sign the dictamen around August 20 and take the bill to the floor on August 27.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | DOWN | RECENT] The August 5 joint plenary began treatment but produced no dictamen; the process has been slower than the government\u0027s original goal of enacting the law before end of August.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The bloc\u0027s planning foresees continued consultation rounds with Treasury Secretary Carlos Guberman and other Economy officials before signing the report.\n4. [sq1 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] All three committees handling expediente CD 6/26 (Budget \u0026 Finance, National Economy \u0026 Investment, General Legislation) are chaired by the governing coalition or allies.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting states that if the committee dictamen emerges, Senate rules would permit a floor session in the week of the 19th (August).\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] As of the most recent reports (mid-August 2026), no Senate floor vote on the Super RIGI had occurred and no session with it on the agenda was confirmed.\n7. [sq2 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Senate rules require at least 7 days between a signed committee dictamen and floor debate, so a dictamen must be signed by ~September 3 for a vote by September 10.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] In Deputies the bill passed 130-107 with backing from UCR, PRO and provincial allies from San Juan, San Luis, Misiones, Salta, Santa Cruz and Tucuman.\n9. [sq3 | description | STRONG cred 88 | NEUTRAL | DATED] La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of 72 Senate seats and must negotiate with governors and other blocs to reach ~37 votes.\n10. [sq4 | description | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Decree 105/2026 extended the existing RIGI enrollment deadline to July 8, 2027, reducing time pressure on passing the expanded regime.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] One report indicates the regime would only become operative with implementing regulation in the last quarter of 2026, implying a late-2026 timeline.\n12. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] A Monte Carlo of the sequential gate (dictamen, session, passage) yields mean ~0.12, rising to ~0.21 conditional on a dictamen being likely.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.5M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.2M\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $189.3K\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.23, Volume: $7.2M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M\n- \"Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $377.7K\n- \"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $2.5M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base rate for lag between Argentine Senate dictamen and floor vote for major economic bills\n - No confirmation whether the dictamen was actually signed around Aug 20 as planned\n - No vote-count reporting on Senate bloc commitments (governors, PRO/UCR) toward 37 votes\n - Article search returned entirely irrelevant results; only web_search provided usable Argentine coverage\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether opposition/provincial senators demand amendments forcing return to committee\n - Whether 2027 Budget or other political events crowd the September agenda\n - Whether the government judges it has quorum plus 37 votes before Sept 10\n - Reliability of single-source Argentine media timeline (Aug 20 dictamen / Aug 27 session)\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.4,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.47000000000000003,
"rationale": "(a) About 3.5 weeks remain between the latest evidence (mid-August 2026) and the September 10 deadline, with the reported government plan (dictamen ~Aug 20, floor session ~Aug 27) sitting comfortably inside that window plus roughly two weeks of slack. (b) Status quo as of early/mid-August: no dictamen signed, no session convened, negotiations with governors ongoing and the existing RIGI extended to July 2027 by Decree 105/2026 \u2014 i.e., inertia points to further consultation rounds and NO. (c) NO scenario: the plenary keeps calling Economy officials, provincial senators demand carve-outs (fiscal shares, provincial taxes), the dictamen slips past early September, or the government, short of 37 votes and quorum, deliberately delays to bundle the bill with 2027 Budget negotiations in late September/October. (d) YES scenario: the LLA-chaired committees sign the dictamen around Aug 20 as reported, the government closes deals with PRO/UCR and the same provincial governors who delivered the 130-106 Deputies vote, and a session in late August or early September approves it in general (possibly with amendments, which still counts). Argentine legislative timetables slip routinely \u2014 the government had already missed its own \u0027law by end of August\u0027 goal \u2014 and the removal of time pressure lowers the cost of delay, but the direction of travel and the government\u0027s control of the committee chairs are genuinely favorable. Balancing single-source reporting on the Aug 20/27 plan (which I discount ~30%) against the substantial buffer, I land near 40% overall, above the naive sequential Monte Carlo (~12-21%) because that model appears to under-weight the reported concrete scheduling plan and the extra two weeks of slack.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.66,
"sq2": 0.45,
"sq3": 0.5,
"sq4": 0.4
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Confirmation from multiple outlets that the joint dictamen was actually signed (with signatures totaling a majority) and a session convoked with CD 6/26 on the plan de labor would push me above 70%; reports of a new round of hearings, a postponement to October, or provincial senators demanding changes that send it back to committee would push me below 25%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Treat the outcome as a short-horizon sequential legislative gate (dictamen by early September, then a scheduled floor session, then sufficient votes) but combine the sub-question probabilities as a weighted average because all steps hinge on the same underlying variable: whether the government has decided it has the numbers and urgency to push a vote before September 10. Recent news on dictamen/session status will dominate, with the low-urgency signal from Decree 105/2026 pushing toward NO.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will the Senate joint plenary committees sign a dictamen on expediente CD 6/26 (\u0027Super RIGI\u0027) on or before September 3, 2026 (leaving the required 7 days before a floor debate)?",
"rationale": "The Senate\u0027s 7-day rule between dictamen and floor debate makes an early-September dictamen a near-necessary precondition; as of early August none existed and officials were still being summoned.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the Senate formally convene an ordinary or special floor session with the \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 on the agenda (orden del dia / plan de labor) on or before September 10, 2026?",
"rationale": "Even with a dictamen, the government must obtain quorum and schedule a session; Argentine Senate sessions are infrequent and often postponed for lack of quorum.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the governing coalition publicly claim/secure the ~37 votes needed for general approval (e.g., agreements with provincial governors and PRO/UCR blocs reported before September 10, 2026)?",
"rationale": "LLA holds only ~25% of seats; without negotiated support the government typically avoids bringing the bill to the floor rather than risk defeat.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will there be an absence of significant delaying factors (e.g., no return to committee, no announced postponement to later in 2026, no competing priority such as the 2027 Budget or a political crisis crowding out the agenda) through September 10, 2026?",
"rationale": "Decree 105/2026 extended RIGI enrollment to July 2027, removing time pressure; the Senate agenda in September is typically dominated by the Presupuesto and other negotiations, favoring delay.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 75,
"queries": [
"Super RIGI Senado dictamen sesion",
"Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones Nuevas Industrias Senado votos",
"Senado Argentina sesion agosto septiembre 2026 quorum RIGI"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Super RIGI Senado dictamen agosto 2026",
"Senado sesion Super RIGI CD 6/26 votacion",
"plenario comisiones Senado RIGI funcionarios Economia"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest status (August 2026) of Argentina\u0027s \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 bill (expediente CD 6/26) in the Senate: whether a committee dictamen has been signed, whether a floor session has been scheduled or requested, vote counting among provincial/PRO/UCR blocs, statements by Senate leadership (Villarruel, Bartolome Abdala, Patricia Bullrich) or the Executive about timing, and any reported plan to delay treatment to later in 2026. Also note the Senate\u0027s session calendar for August-September 2026 and competing agenda items (2027 Budget, other bills).",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Will Argentina\u0027s Senate pass the \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 bill on or before September 10, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base-rate style model: P(dictamen by Sep 3) * P(session scheduled+held with bill) * P(passes)\nrng=np.random.default_rng(0)\nn=20000\np_dict=rng.beta(3,5,n) # dictamen by Sep3, uncertain, centered ~0.37\np_sess=rng.beta(3,4,n) # session held with bill on agenda given dictamen\np_pass=rng.beta(8,3,n) # passes if voted (govt usually only votes when it has numbers)\np=p_dict*p_sess*p_pass\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027, p.mean(), \u0027median\u0027, np.median(p), \u0027p10/p90\u0027, np.percentile(p,[10,90]))\n# sensitivity: if dictamen already exists by mid-Aug\np2=rng.beta(6,3,n)*p_sess*p_pass\nprint(\u0027if dictamen likely: mean\u0027, p2.mean())",
"description": "Monte Carlo of the sequential legislative gate (dictamen -\u003e scheduled session -\u003e passage) to bound plausible probabilities."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-17T18:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nThe \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 is a bill expanding Argentina\u0027s Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI), the large-investment incentive regime originally created under the 2024 \u0027Ley Bases.\u0027 The bill received half-sanction (media sancion) in the Chamber of Deputies on June 24, 2026 (130 in favor, 106 against, 7 abstentions) and was sent to the Senate as expediente CD 6/26. It is handled by a joint plenary of the Budget \u0026 Finance, National Economy \u0026 Investment, and General Legislation committees -- all chaired by the governing coalition or its allies. A plenary committee meeting on August 5, 2026 began treatment of the bill but did not produce a committee report (dictamen); senators agreed to reconvene and hear Economy Ministry officials.\n\nAs of early August 2026, no committee dictamen had been signed and no floor session (sesion) had been scheduled to vote on the bill. Senate rules require at least 7 days between a committee dictamen and a floor debate. President Javier Milei\u0027s La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of the 72 Senate seats after the October 2025 midterms and lacks an automatic majority, so the government has been negotiating votes. The existing RIGI regime remains in force, with its enrollment deadline extended to July 8, 2027 via Decree 105/2026, reducing time pressure. Argentine Senate voting records are published on the official Senate site and mirrored by open-data trackers such as senadores.argentinadatos.com.\n\n`{\"format\":\"llm_question\",\"info\":{\"sdk_version\":\"0.5.2\",\"rating\":{\"quality\":4,\"ambiguity\":3,\"resolvability\":4,\"passes\":true}},\"unique_id\":\"886f7c86-9294-4108-be5d-eaf4567c34a6\"}`\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"41e1720976aca696\", \"sheet_id\": \"172\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves YES if, as of the end of September 10, 2026 (Argentina time, UTC-3), the Argentine Senate (Senado de la Nacion) has approved the bill known as the \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 (Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones en Nuevas Industrias, entered as expediente CD 6/26, which received half-sanction from the Chamber of Deputies on June 24, 2026) in a floor vote (votacion en general), regardless of whether amendments were introduced. It resolves NO otherwise. A YES requires a Senate general-vote approval of this bill; committee action (dictamen) alone, or approval by the Chamber of Deputies alone, does not count. Resolution is based on the Senate voting record shown at https://senadores.argentinadatos.com/ (a bill titled \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 / \u0027Regimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones en Nuevas Industrias\u0027 appearing with an approved result -- \u0027A favor\u0027 exceeding the required majority). If that tracker is unavailable, resolution follows the official Senate parliamentary record at senado.gob.ar or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n## Fine Print\nIf the Senate rejects the bill, or takes no floor vote on it by the end of September 10, 2026 (UTC-3), the question resolves NO. If the Senate approves a version with amendments (requiring the bill to return to the Chamber of Deputies), that still counts as a Senate approval and resolves YES. A vote to send the bill back to committee (mocion de vuelta a comision) is not an approval and does not resolve YES.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will Argentina\u0027s Senate pass the \u0027Super RIGI\u0027 bill on or before September 10, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.5M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.2M\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $183.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $189.3K\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.23, Volume: $7.2M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M\n- \"Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?\" \u2192 Yes: 1.00, Volume: $377.7K\n- \"2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $2.5M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.47,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "30 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 30.57,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 27.72,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "13 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.19,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of the sequential legislative gate (dictamen -\u003e ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Most recent reporting (~Aug 16, 2026) says the ruling bloc plans to sign the dictamen around August 20 and take the bill to the floor on August 27.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The August 5 joint plenary began treatment but produced no dictamen; the process has been slower than the government\u0027s original goal of enacting the law before end of August.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The bloc\u0027s planning foresees continued consultation rounds with Treasury Secretary Carlos Guberman and other Economy officials before signing the report.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "All three committees handling expediente CD 6/26 (Budget \u0026 Finance, National Economy \u0026 Investment, General Legislation) are chaired by the governing coalition or allies.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Reporting states that if the committee dictamen emerges, Senate rules would permit a floor session in the week of the 19th (August).",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "As of the most recent reports (mid-August 2026), no Senate floor vote on the Super RIGI had occurred and no session with it on the agenda was confirmed.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Senate rules require at least 7 days between a signed committee dictamen and floor debate, so a dictamen must be signed by ~September 3 for a vote by September 10.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "description",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "In Deputies the bill passed 130-107 with backing from UCR, PRO and provincial allies from San Juan, San Luis, Misiones, Salta, Santa Cruz and Tucuman.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "La Libertad Avanza holds roughly one-quarter of 72 Senate seats and must negotiate with governors and other blocs to reach ~37 votes.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "description",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Decree 105/2026 extended the existing RIGI enrollment deadline to July 8, 2027, reducing time pressure on passing the expanded regime.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "description",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "One report indicates the regime would only become operative with implementing regulation in the last quarter of 2026, implying a late-2026 timeline.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "A Monte Carlo of the sequential gate (dictamen, session, passage) yields mean ~0.12, rising to ~0.21 conditional on a dictamen being likely.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No base rate for lag between Argentine Senate dictamen and floor vote for major economic bills",
"No confirmation whether the dictamen was actually signed around Aug 20 as planned",
"No vote-count reporting on Senate bloc commitments (governors, PRO/UCR) toward 37 votes",
"Article search returned entirely irrelevant results; only web_search provided usable Argentine coverage"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether opposition/provincial senators demand amendments forcing return to committee",
"Whether 2027 Budget or other political events crowd the September agenda",
"Whether the government judges it has quorum plus 37 votes before Sept 10",
"Reliability of single-source Argentine media timeline (Aug 20 dictamen / Aug 27 session)"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 52.7,
"plan": 29.76,
"research": 30.57,
"synthesis": 35.56
}
}