Anchor on whether the route is currently operating and scheduled for Sept 2026, then discount by a hazard-rate estimate for a conflict-driven suspension active on that specific two-day window plus small idiosyncratic cancellation risk; combine as a weighted average dominated by current operating status and regional security outlook.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.1M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $187.7K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $181.4K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.39, Volume: $746.4K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United announced in ~August 2026 it will resume nonstop EWR–TLV service on September 8, 2026, with two daily Boeing 787 flights. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] United suspended Tel Aviv service at the end of February 2026 after Israeli airspace was largely closed due to the Iran conflict, and has not flown the route since. 3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Two independent aviation outlets report the September 8 restart date, implying schedules are loaded and bookable for Sept 8–9, 2026. 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The September 8 relaunch is a reduced two-daily schedule rather than United's previously planned 18 weekly EWR–TLV flights announced in October 2025. 5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United has flown to Tel Aviv more than any other US carrier over the past two years and has repeatedly been first to return after suspensions. 6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] United's 2025 record shows repeated whiplash: resumed March 15, suspended early May after a Houthi missile hit Ben Gurion, resumed June 5, suspended June 12, resumed July 21. 7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | RECENT] In July 2026 Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'OVER' and US forces conducted consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, after a ceasefire announced in early April. 8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Netanyahu said in May 2026 the war with Iran is 'not over,' citing remaining enrichment sites, proxies and ballistic missiles. 9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Nearly 50,000 flights were canceled regionally since February 28, 2026, per Cirium, reflecting the scale of the airspace disruption from the Iran war. 10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United's decision to schedule a restart implies the airline and presumably FAA/insurers judged Israeli airspace sufficiently reopened by August 2026. 11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] September 8–9, 2026 are the first two days of the restarted route, so any slippage of the launch date would cause a NO resolution. 12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jet fuel prices spiked above $100/barrel in 2026 and contributed to Spirit's liquidation, raising industry-wide cost pressure on marginal long-haul routes. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.1M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $187.7K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $181.4K - "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.39, Volume: $746.4K - "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M Information gaps: - No direct confirmation from United's own press release or GDS/Cirium schedule data that UA84/UA90 are loaded and bookable for Sept 8-9, 2026 - No base rate for how often announced Tel Aviv restart dates slipped versus held (2024-2026) - Current FAA NOTAM/prohibition status for Israeli airspace as of August 2026 not verified - Status of other foreign carriers (Delta, Lufthansa, Air France, El Al) returning to TLV in August-September 2026 Key uncertainties: - Whether the Iran conflict re-escalates and closes Israeli airspace before Sept 8 - Whether United's Sept 8 launch date slips by days or weeks - Houthi/proxy missile risk to Ben Gurion specifically - Whether resolution requires the very first flights to operate on schedule with no launch-day delay
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will United Airlines operate a nonstop Newark-Tel Aviv flight on September 8 or 9, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023 and subsequent regional escalations, most U.S. carriers including United repeatedly suspended nonstop service to Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport.
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "d87b37ae5ddf4c11", "sheet_id": "169"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves YES if United Airlines (UA) operates at least one nonstop scheduled passenger flight departing Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) bound for Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) that actually takes off on either September 8, 2026 or September 9, 2026 (Newark local calendar date, US Eastern Time).
## Fine Print
A flight "operates" if a nonstop United flight takes off from EWR and then next lands at TLV. The flight must be both marketed and operated by UA and use a UA flight number. Thus, codeshare flights operated by another airline, connecting or one-stop itineraries, and ferry, positioning, or diverted flights do not count.
Credible sources such as FlightAware or Flightradar24 will be used to determine whether the flight operated.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.35) Is United Airlines operating regular nonstop EWR-TLV service (at least daily or near-daily) as of the most recent available data? — Current operational status is the strongest baseline predictor; UA resumed TLV service in 2025 and has been the only US
- (w=0.20) Are United's published schedules/GDS listings showing bookable nonstop EWR-TLV flights for early September 2026 (including Sept 8-9)? — Schedule filings ~12 months out are a direct signal of intent, though they are frequently pulled when conflict escalates
- (w=0.35) Will the Israel-Gaza/regional security situation remain calm enough (no active missile/rocket threat to Ben Gurion, no FAA prohibition or NOTAM) that foreign carriers continue flying to TLV through September 2026? — The dominant risk driver: every prior UA suspension was triggered by escalation (Oct 2023, Apr 2024, Aug 2024, Oct 2024,
- (w=0.10) Will the specific Sept 8-9, 2026 flights avoid idiosyncratic cancellation (weather, labor action, aircraft/ETOPS or crew issues, airport closure) given the route is otherwise operating? — Even with the route active, there is a small chance of a two-day cancellation window; but two consecutive dates and typi
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United announced in ~August 2026 it will resume nonstop EWR–TLV service on September 8, 2026, with two daily Boeing 787 flights.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] United suspended Tel Aviv service at the end of February 2026 after Israeli airspace was largely closed due to the Iran conflict, and has not flown the route since.
3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Two independent aviation outlets report the September 8 restart date, implying schedules are loaded and bookable for Sept 8–9, 2026.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The September 8 relaunch is a reduced two-daily schedule rather than United's previously planned 18 weekly EWR–TLV flights announced in October 2025.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United has flown to Tel Aviv more than any other US carrier over the past two years and has repeatedly been first to return after suspensions.
6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] United's 2025 record shows repeated whiplash: resumed March 15, suspended early May after a Houthi missile hit Ben Gurion, resumed June 5, suspended June 12, resumed July 21.
7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | RECENT] In July 2026 Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'OVER' and US forces conducted consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, after a ceasefire announced in early April.
8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Netanyahu said in May 2026 the war with Iran is 'not over,' citing remaining enrichment sites, proxies and ballistic missiles.
9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Nearly 50,000 flights were canceled regionally since February 28, 2026, per Cirium, reflecting the scale of the airspace disruption from the Iran war.
10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United's decision to schedule a restart implies the airline and presumably FAA/insurers judged Israeli airspace sufficiently reopened by August 2026.
11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] September 8–9, 2026 are the first two days of the restarted route, so any slippage of the launch date would cause a NO resolution.
12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jet fuel prices spiked above $100/barrel in 2026 and contributed to Spirit's liquidation, raising industry-wide cost pressure on marginal long-haul routes.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.1M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M
- "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $187.7K
- "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $181.4K
- "Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.39, Volume: $746.4K
- "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M
Information gaps:
- No direct confirmation from United's own press release or GDS/Cirium schedule data that UA84/UA90 are loaded and bookable for Sept 8-9, 2026
- No base rate for how often announced Tel Aviv restart dates slipped versus held (2024-2026)
- Current FAA NOTAM/prohibition status for Israeli airspace as of August 2026 not verified
- Status of other foreign carriers (Delta, Lufthansa, Air France, El Al) returning to TLV in August-September 2026
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the Iran conflict re-escalates and closes Israeli airspace before Sept 8
- Whether United's Sept 8 launch date slips by days or weeks
- Houthi/proxy missile risk to Ben Gurion specifically
- Whether resolution requires the very first flights to operate on schedule with no launch-day delay
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United announced in ~August 2026 it will resume nonstop EWR\u2013TLV service on September 8, 2026, with two daily Boeing 787 flights.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] United suspended Tel Aviv service at the end of February 2026 after Israeli airspace was largely closed due to the Iran conflict, and has not flown the route since.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Two independent aviation outlets report the September 8 restart date, implying schedules are loaded and bookable for Sept 8\u20139, 2026.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The September 8 relaunch is a reduced two-daily schedule rather than United\u0027s previously planned 18 weekly EWR\u2013TLV flights announced in October 2025.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United has flown to Tel Aviv more than any other US carrier over the past two years and has repeatedly been first to return after suspensions.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] United\u0027s 2025 record shows repeated whiplash: resumed March 15, suspended early May after a Houthi missile hit Ben Gurion, resumed June 5, suspended June 12, resumed July 21.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | RECENT] In July 2026 Trump declared the Iran ceasefire \u0027OVER\u0027 and US forces conducted consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, after a ceasefire announced in early April.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Netanyahu said in May 2026 the war with Iran is \u0027not over,\u0027 citing remaining enrichment sites, proxies and ballistic missiles.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Nearly 50,000 flights were canceled regionally since February 28, 2026, per Cirium, reflecting the scale of the airspace disruption from the Iran war.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United\u0027s decision to schedule a restart implies the airline and presumably FAA/insurers judged Israeli airspace sufficiently reopened by August 2026.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] September 8\u20139, 2026 are the first two days of the restarted route, so any slippage of the launch date would cause a NO resolution.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jet fuel prices spiked above $100/barrel in 2026 and contributed to Spirit\u0027s liquidation, raising industry-wide cost pressure on marginal long-haul routes.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.1M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $187.7K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $181.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.39, Volume: $746.4K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct confirmation from United\u0027s own press release or GDS/Cirium schedule data that UA84/UA90 are loaded and bookable for Sept 8-9, 2026\n - No base rate for how often announced Tel Aviv restart dates slipped versus held (2024-2026)\n - Current FAA NOTAM/prohibition status for Israeli airspace as of August 2026 not verified\n - Status of other foreign carriers (Delta, Lufthansa, Air France, El Al) returning to TLV in August-September 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the Iran conflict re-escalates and closes Israeli airspace before Sept 8\n - Whether United\u0027s Sept 8 launch date slips by days or weeks\n - Houthi/proxy missile risk to Ben Gurion specifically\n - Whether resolution requires the very first flights to operate on schedule with no launch-day delay",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill United Airlines operate a nonstop Newark-Tel Aviv flight on September 8 or 9, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nFollowing the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023 and subsequent regional escalations, most U.S. carriers including United repeatedly suspended nonstop service to Tel Aviv\u0027s Ben Gurion Airport.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"d87b37ae5ddf4c11\", \"sheet_id\": \"169\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves YES if United Airlines (UA) operates at least one nonstop scheduled passenger flight departing Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) bound for Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) that actually takes off on either September 8, 2026 or September 9, 2026 (Newark local calendar date, US Eastern Time).\n\n## Fine Print\nA flight \"operates\" if a nonstop United flight takes off from EWR and then next lands at TLV. The flight must be both marketed and operated by UA and use a UA flight number. Thus, codeshare flights operated by another airline, connecting or one-stop itineraries, and ferry, positioning, or diverted flights do not count. \n\nCredible sources such as FlightAware or Flightradar24 will be used to determine whether the flight operated.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.35) Is United Airlines operating regular nonstop EWR-TLV service (at least daily or near-daily) as of the most recent available data? \u2014 Current operational status is the strongest baseline predictor; UA resumed TLV service in 2025 and has been the only US \n- (w=0.20) Are United\u0027s published schedules/GDS listings showing bookable nonstop EWR-TLV flights for early September 2026 (including Sept 8-9)? \u2014 Schedule filings ~12 months out are a direct signal of intent, though they are frequently pulled when conflict escalates\n- (w=0.35) Will the Israel-Gaza/regional security situation remain calm enough (no active missile/rocket threat to Ben Gurion, no FAA prohibition or NOTAM) that foreign carriers continue flying to TLV through September 2026? \u2014 The dominant risk driver: every prior UA suspension was triggered by escalation (Oct 2023, Apr 2024, Aug 2024, Oct 2024,\n- (w=0.10) Will the specific Sept 8-9, 2026 flights avoid idiosyncratic cancellation (weather, labor action, aircraft/ETOPS or crew issues, airport closure) given the route is otherwise operating? \u2014 Even with the route active, there is a small chance of a two-day cancellation window; but two consecutive dates and typi\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United announced in ~August 2026 it will resume nonstop EWR\u2013TLV service on September 8, 2026, with two daily Boeing 787 flights.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | RECENT] United suspended Tel Aviv service at the end of February 2026 after Israeli airspace was largely closed due to the Iran conflict, and has not flown the route since.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Two independent aviation outlets report the September 8 restart date, implying schedules are loaded and bookable for Sept 8\u20139, 2026.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The September 8 relaunch is a reduced two-daily schedule rather than United\u0027s previously planned 18 weekly EWR\u2013TLV flights announced in October 2025.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United has flown to Tel Aviv more than any other US carrier over the past two years and has repeatedly been first to return after suspensions.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] United\u0027s 2025 record shows repeated whiplash: resumed March 15, suspended early May after a Houthi missile hit Ben Gurion, resumed June 5, suspended June 12, resumed July 21.\n7. [sq3 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | RECENT] In July 2026 Trump declared the Iran ceasefire \u0027OVER\u0027 and US forces conducted consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, after a ceasefire announced in early April.\n8. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 88 | DOWN | DATED] Netanyahu said in May 2026 the war with Iran is \u0027not over,\u0027 citing remaining enrichment sites, proxies and ballistic missiles.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Nearly 50,000 flights were canceled regionally since February 28, 2026, per Cirium, reflecting the scale of the airspace disruption from the Iran war.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] United\u0027s decision to schedule a restart implies the airline and presumably FAA/insurers judged Israeli airspace sufficiently reopened by August 2026.\n11. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] September 8\u20139, 2026 are the first two days of the restarted route, so any slippage of the launch date would cause a NO resolution.\n12. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Jet fuel prices spiked above $100/barrel in 2026 and contributed to Spirit\u0027s liquidation, raising industry-wide cost pressure on marginal long-haul routes.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.1M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $187.7K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $181.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.39, Volume: $746.4K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct confirmation from United\u0027s own press release or GDS/Cirium schedule data that UA84/UA90 are loaded and bookable for Sept 8-9, 2026\n - No base rate for how often announced Tel Aviv restart dates slipped versus held (2024-2026)\n - Current FAA NOTAM/prohibition status for Israeli airspace as of August 2026 not verified\n - Status of other foreign carriers (Delta, Lufthansa, Air France, El Al) returning to TLV in August-September 2026\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the Iran conflict re-escalates and closes Israeli airspace before Sept 8\n - Whether United\u0027s Sept 8 launch date slips by days or weeks\n - Houthi/proxy missile risk to Ben Gurion specifically\n - Whether resolution requires the very first flights to operate on schedule with no launch-day delay\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.6,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.5222,
"rationale": "(a) The question resolves on Sept 8\u20139, 2026, roughly a few weeks out from the apparent information cutoff (~August 2026), so most of the uncertainty is short-horizon. (b) The status quo today is that United is NOT flying EWR\u2013TLV \u2014 it suspended the route at the end of February 2026 when Israeli airspace largely closed amid the Iran conflict \u2014 but it has publicly announced a restart with two daily 787 flights beginning precisely September 8, 2026, which is the first resolution date. (c) NO scenario: the July 2026 collapse of the Iran ceasefire and renewed US strikes reignite missile/drone threats to Ben Gurion (or Houthi launches resume), prompting United to push the launch back by days or weeks \u2014 exactly the pattern seen in 2025 (resume Mar 15, suspend early May, resume Jun 5, suspend Jun 12, resume Jul 21) and in Feb 2026; alternatively insurers/FAA NOTAM constraints, crew/aircraft readiness, or a soft-demand/fuel-cost reassessment delay the relaunch past Sept 9. (d) YES scenario: the April 2026 ceasefire framework holds well enough operationally, Israeli airspace stays open through early September, El Al and European carriers are already flying, and United \u2014 historically the first US carrier back and clearly incentivized to reclaim the route \u2014 operates UA84/UA90 on schedule on Sept 8, with a second chance on Sept 9 if day-one has an isolated cancellation. Net: the announcement is a strong intent signal from an operator with demonstrated willingness to fly, but announced TLV restart dates have slipped repeatedly, and the region is visibly unstable, so I land modestly above even.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.1,
"sq2": 0.9,
"sq3": 0.62,
"sq4": 0.8
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Confirmation from United\u0027s own press release plus Cirium/GDS data that UA84/UA90 are loaded and bookable for Sept 8\u20139 with El Al/Lufthansa/Delta already operating normally would push me above 70%; renewed Israeli airspace closure, a new FAA NOTAM/prohibition, or a reported slip of the launch date to late September would push me below 30%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "geopolitics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on whether the route is currently operating and scheduled for Sept 2026, then discount by a hazard-rate estimate for a conflict-driven suspension active on that specific two-day window plus small idiosyncratic cancellation risk; combine as a weighted average dominated by current operating status and regional security outlook.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Is United Airlines operating regular nonstop EWR-TLV service (at least daily or near-daily) as of the most recent available data?",
"rationale": "Current operational status is the strongest baseline predictor; UA resumed TLV service in 2025 and has been the only US carrier flying it during much of the conflict period.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Are United\u0027s published schedules/GDS listings showing bookable nonstop EWR-TLV flights for early September 2026 (including Sept 8-9)?",
"rationale": "Schedule filings ~12 months out are a direct signal of intent, though they are frequently pulled when conflict escalates.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the Israel-Gaza/regional security situation remain calm enough (no active missile/rocket threat to Ben Gurion, no FAA prohibition or NOTAM) that foreign carriers continue flying to TLV through September 2026?",
"rationale": "The dominant risk driver: every prior UA suspension was triggered by escalation (Oct 2023, Apr 2024, Aug 2024, Oct 2024, Jun 2025 Israel-Iran war).",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the specific Sept 8-9, 2026 flights avoid idiosyncratic cancellation (weather, labor action, aircraft/ETOPS or crew issues, airport closure) given the route is otherwise operating?",
"rationale": "Even with the route active, there is a small chance of a two-day cancellation window; but two consecutive dates and typically a daily/double-daily frequency make this unlikely.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine the current status of United Airlines nonstop Newark (EWR) to Tel Aviv (TLV) service: is it operating now, what frequency, when was it last suspended and resumed, and what schedule has United filed for 2026 (including September 2026)? Also report whether other US carriers (Delta, American) fly TLV, any FAA restrictions on Israeli airspace, and the current state of the Gaza ceasefire / Israel-Iran tensions affecting Ben Gurion operations.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Will United Airlines operate a nonstop Newark-Tel Aviv flight on September 8 or 9, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"United Airlines Newark Tel Aviv flights status 2026 schedule",
"United Airlines suspends resumes Tel Aviv service latest",
"FAA Israel airspace notice airlines Ben Gurion flights resume"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 180,
"queries": [
"United Airlines Tel Aviv flights suspension resumption",
"airlines returning to Ben Gurion Airport Israel",
"Israel Gaza ceasefire escalation airspace airlines"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base rate: fraction of days since Oct 2023 that UA operated EWR-TLV, and hazard of a new suspension covering Sep 8-9 2026\n# Timeline (approx): suspended Oct 7 2023 - Mar 15 2025 (~525 days off), operating Mar 15 2025 - Jun 13 2025 (~90 on),\n# suspended Jun 13 - Jul 21 2025 (~38 off), operating Jul 21 2025 onward (~assume continuous)\nsegments=[(\u0027off\u0027,525),(\u0027on\u0027,90),(\u0027off\u0027,38),(\u0027on\u0027,200)]\non=sum(d for s,d in segments if s==\u0027on\u0027); off=sum(d for s,d in segments if s==\u0027off\u0027)\nprint(\u0027naive on-fraction since Oct2023:\u0027, round(on/(on+off),3))\n# Conditional on currently operating: monthly hazard of suspension events\n# Suspension-triggering escalations since Oct 2023: Apr 2024, Aug 2024, Oct 2024, Jun 2025 -\u003e ~4 events in ~27 months\nlam=4/27\nmonths_ahead=10 # from ~Nov 2025 to Sep 2026\n# probability at least one escalation event, and probability it is *active* on a given 2-day window\n# average suspension duration ~ 5 weeks (1.2 months)\ndur=1.2\np_down_on_random_day = lam*dur/(1+lam*dur)\nprint(\u0027steady-state prob route suspended on random future day:\u0027, round(p_down_on_random_day,3))\nprint(\u0027=\u003e prob operating on Sep 8-9 2026 given structural continuation:\u0027, round(1-p_down_on_random_day,3))\n# add small idiosyncratic 2-day cancellation risk\nfor idio in [0.01,0.02,0.03]:\n print(\u0027with idio\u0027, idio, \u0027-\u003e\u0027, round((1-p_down_on_random_day)*(1-idio),3))\n# sensitivity: lower hazard if ceasefire holds\nfor lam2 in [0.05,0.10,0.15,0.20]:\n p=lam2*dur/(1+lam2*dur)\n print(\u0027lambda/mo\u0027,lam2,\u0027prob up:\u0027,round((1-p)*0.98,3))\n",
"description": "Base-rate/hazard model for probability UA EWR-TLV operates on a specific 2-day window in Sep 2026"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-17T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nFollowing the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023 and subsequent regional escalations, most U.S. carriers including United repeatedly suspended nonstop service to Tel Aviv\u0027s Ben Gurion Airport.\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"d87b37ae5ddf4c11\", \"sheet_id\": \"169\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves YES if United Airlines (UA) operates at least one nonstop scheduled passenger flight departing Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) bound for Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) that actually takes off on either September 8, 2026 or September 9, 2026 (Newark local calendar date, US Eastern Time).\n\n## Fine Print\nA flight \"operates\" if a nonstop United flight takes off from EWR and then next lands at TLV. The flight must be both marketed and operated by UA and use a UA flight number. Thus, codeshare flights operated by another airline, connecting or one-stop itineraries, and ferry, positioning, or diverted flights do not count. \n\nCredible sources such as FlightAware or Flightradar24 will be used to determine whether the flight operated.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will United Airlines operate a nonstop Newark-Tel Aviv flight on September 8 or 9, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.1M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.9M\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $187.7K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $181.4K\n- \"Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $192.4K\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.39, Volume: $746.4K\n- \"US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.03, Volume: $1.1M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 26.49,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "17 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 31.28,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.61,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "18 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.07,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Base-rate/hazard model for probability UA EWR-TLV operates o",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "United announced in ~August 2026 it will resume nonstop EWR\u2013TLV service on September 8, 2026, with two daily Boeing 787 flights.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "United suspended Tel Aviv service at the end of February 2026 after Israeli airspace was largely closed due to the Iran conflict, and has not flown the route since.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Two independent aviation outlets report the September 8 restart date, implying schedules are loaded and bookable for Sept 8\u20139, 2026.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The September 8 relaunch is a reduced two-daily schedule rather than United\u0027s previously planned 18 weekly EWR\u2013TLV flights announced in October 2025.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "United has flown to Tel Aviv more than any other US carrier over the past two years and has repeatedly been first to return after suspensions.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "United\u0027s 2025 record shows repeated whiplash: resumed March 15, suspended early May after a Houthi missile hit Ben Gurion, resumed June 5, suspended June 12, resumed July 21.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "In July 2026 Trump declared the Iran ceasefire \u0027OVER\u0027 and US forces conducted consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, after a ceasefire announced in early April.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Netanyahu said in May 2026 the war with Iran is \u0027not over,\u0027 citing remaining enrichment sites, proxies and ballistic missiles.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Nearly 50,000 flights were canceled regionally since February 28, 2026, per Cirium, reflecting the scale of the airspace disruption from the Iran war.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "United\u0027s decision to schedule a restart implies the airline and presumably FAA/insurers judged Israeli airspace sufficiently reopened by August 2026.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "September 8\u20139, 2026 are the first two days of the restarted route, so any slippage of the launch date would cause a NO resolution.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Jet fuel prices spiked above $100/barrel in 2026 and contributed to Spirit\u0027s liquidation, raising industry-wide cost pressure on marginal long-haul routes.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct confirmation from United\u0027s own press release or GDS/Cirium schedule data that UA84/UA90 are loaded and bookable for Sept 8-9, 2026",
"No base rate for how often announced Tel Aviv restart dates slipped versus held (2024-2026)",
"Current FAA NOTAM/prohibition status for Israeli airspace as of August 2026 not verified",
"Status of other foreign carriers (Delta, Lufthansa, Air France, El Al) returning to TLV in August-September 2026"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the Iran conflict re-escalates and closes Israeli airspace before Sept 8",
"Whether United\u0027s Sept 8 launch date slips by days or weeks",
"Houthi/proxy missile risk to Ben Gurion specifically",
"Whether resolution requires the very first flights to operate on schedule with no launch-day delay"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 68.96,
"plan": 32.54,
"research": 31.29,
"synthesis": 25.62
}
}