Combine an epidemiological hazard base rate for new-province spread with current evidence on whether the outbreak is still expanding and whether alerts already exist in a 7th province, weighting the empirical/leading-indicator evidence most heavily and discounting slightly for WHO reporting lag.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.0M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.73, Volume: $7.8M - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.8M - "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.9M - "Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $223.9K - "Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.40, Volume: $206.4K - "Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $5.9M - "Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $176.2K - "Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.09, Volume: $144.5K
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO Weekly Situation Report #13 (data to 9 Aug 2026) reported 4,381 cumulative confirmed cases and 2,011 deaths, up 579 cases in ~1 week. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Africa CDC announced on 13 August 2026 that the outbreak had expanded to a sixth province, Bas-Uélé, via an imported case in Buta. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of 5 August 2026, active transmission was concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu with recent spread to Gombari (Haut-Uélé) and Bafwasende (Tshopo). 4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] WHO DON of 1 Aug 2026 stated the outbreak spans 49 health zones across five provinces, up from a single health zone two months earlier. 5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] Uganda declared its linked outbreak over on 28 July 2026 after 20 cases and 2 deaths, indicating containment in at least one jurisdiction. 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Provincial expansion timeline: Ituri (May), then four more provinces by 30 July, and Bas-Uélé by 13 August — roughly six provinces in three months. 7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] By late May 2026 confirmed/suspected cases had appeared across an area of Congo larger than Florida, per Congolese government figures. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No evidence found of confirmed or suspected 2026-outbreak cases in Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Kinshasa or other non-listed provinces; Maniema references were to a prior 2022 outbreak. 9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Cases have been reported in urban centers including Goma and Bunia, and one exported case reached Kampala, showing urban/travel-linked transmission potential. 10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO publishes weekly external situation reports (report #13 covering data to 9 Aug 2026) and Africa CDC issues frequent situational reports with province-level detail. 11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the outbreak a PHEIC on 16 May 2026 and raised national risk to 'very high'; response is hampered by conflict, US funding cuts, and no approved Bundibugyo vaccine. 12. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The six affected provinces are all contiguous in the northeast; adjacent unaffected provinces include Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, and Nord-Ubangi. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.0M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.73, Volume: $7.8M - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.8M - "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.9M - "Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $223.9K - "Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.40, Volume: $206.4K - "Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $5.9M - "Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $176.2K - "Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.09, Volume: $144.5K Information gaps: - No data after 16 August 2026 — the critical 3-week window before Sept 7 is unobserved - No explicit count of new health zones added week-over-week in August (expansion vs. plateau) - No historical base rate for inter-provincial spread intervals in large DRC Ebola outbreaks - No information on alerts/suspected cases under investigation in non-listed provinces Key uncertainties: - Whether case growth was decelerating in late August 2026 - Whether an imported case reaches a 7th province (single traveler suffices) - WHO/Africa CDC reporting lag versus the Sept 7 deadline - Effect of intensified response and possible vaccine/therapeutic deployment
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the WHO report that the 2026 Ebola outbreak has spread to a 7th Congo province before September 7, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
WHO Disease Outbreak News August 1, 2026: [Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON614):
> The Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is intensifying, with sustained transmission and continued increases in reported cases and deaths. Initially confined to the Mongbwalu health zone in Ituri Province, over the last two months, the outbreak has expanded to five provinces (Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uélé and Tshopo), now affecting 49 health zones. The outbreak is now the largest Ebola outbreak ever reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of 30 July 2026, a total of 3605 confirmed cases, including 1587 deaths, have been reported, corresponding to a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 44%. The continued increase in cases, expanding geographic spread, and persistently high mortality underscore the rapidly evolving nature of this public health emergency.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 45090, "question_id": 45240}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 7, 2026, the World Health Organization [reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/emergency-events/item/2026-e000253) that the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease [outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ebola_epidemic) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has expanded to a province other than Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uélé, Tshopo or Bas-Uele.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.35) Is the Bundibugyo virus outbreak in DRC still geographically expanding (new health zones/provinces added) as of the latest WHO or Africa CDC situation report before mid-August 2026? — Continued expansion momentum is the primary driver; an outbreak that has plateaued or is contracting is unlikely to add
- (w=0.30) Based on the observed rate of new-province additions in this outbreak (6 provinces reached within ~5-6 months), does a Poisson/base-rate model imply >50% chance of at least one additional new province in the ~5 weeks before Sept 7, 2026? — Quantifies the historical hazard rate of province-level spread in this specific epidemic and in prior large DRC Ebola ou
- (w=0.25) Are there already suspected/probable cases, alerts, or confirmed exportations reported in a province outside the six listed (e.g., Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Bas-Congo/Kinshasa, Haut-Lomami, Kasai, or Mai-Ndombe)? — Leading indicator: pending investigations or alerts in a 7th province would make WHO confirmation within weeks highly li
- (w=0.10) Will WHO publish at least one new Disease Outbreak News item or situation report with province-level breakdown between mid-August and September 7, 2026? — Resolution requires WHO reporting; a reporting gap could prevent YES even if spread occurs.
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO Weekly Situation Report #13 (data to 9 Aug 2026) reported 4,381 cumulative confirmed cases and 2,011 deaths, up 579 cases in ~1 week.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Africa CDC announced on 13 August 2026 that the outbreak had expanded to a sixth province, Bas-Uélé, via an imported case in Buta.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of 5 August 2026, active transmission was concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu with recent spread to Gombari (Haut-Uélé) and Bafwasende (Tshopo).
4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] WHO DON of 1 Aug 2026 stated the outbreak spans 49 health zones across five provinces, up from a single health zone two months earlier.
5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] Uganda declared its linked outbreak over on 28 July 2026 after 20 cases and 2 deaths, indicating containment in at least one jurisdiction.
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Provincial expansion timeline: Ituri (May), then four more provinces by 30 July, and Bas-Uélé by 13 August — roughly six provinces in three months.
7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] By late May 2026 confirmed/suspected cases had appeared across an area of Congo larger than Florida, per Congolese government figures.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No evidence found of confirmed or suspected 2026-outbreak cases in Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Kinshasa or other non-listed provinces; Maniema references were to a prior 2022 outbreak.
9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Cases have been reported in urban centers including Goma and Bunia, and one exported case reached Kampala, showing urban/travel-linked transmission potential.
10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO publishes weekly external situation reports (report #13 covering data to 9 Aug 2026) and Africa CDC issues frequent situational reports with province-level detail.
11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the outbreak a PHEIC on 16 May 2026 and raised national risk to 'very high'; response is hampered by conflict, US funding cuts, and no approved Bundibugyo vaccine.
12. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The six affected provinces are all contiguous in the northeast; adjacent unaffected provinces include Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, and Nord-Ubangi.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.0M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.73, Volume: $7.8M
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.8M
- "Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.9M
- "Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.47, Volume: $223.9K
- "Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.40, Volume: $206.4K
- "Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $5.9M
- "Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $176.2K
- "Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-08-16?" → Yes: 0.09, Volume: $144.5K
Information gaps:
- No data after 16 August 2026 — the critical 3-week window before Sept 7 is unobserved
- No explicit count of new health zones added week-over-week in August (expansion vs. plateau)
- No historical base rate for inter-provincial spread intervals in large DRC Ebola outbreaks
- No information on alerts/suspected cases under investigation in non-listed provinces
Key uncertainties:
- Whether case growth was decelerating in late August 2026
- Whether an imported case reaches a 7th province (single traveler suffices)
- WHO/Africa CDC reporting lag versus the Sept 7 deadline
- Effect of intensified response and possible vaccine/therapeutic deployment
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO Weekly Situation Report #13 (data to 9 Aug 2026) reported 4,381 cumulative confirmed cases and 2,011 deaths, up 579 cases in ~1 week.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Africa CDC announced on 13 August 2026 that the outbreak had expanded to a sixth province, Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9, via an imported case in Buta.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of 5 August 2026, active transmission was concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu with recent spread to Gombari (Haut-U\u00e9l\u00e9) and Bafwasende (Tshopo).\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] WHO DON of 1 Aug 2026 stated the outbreak spans 49 health zones across five provinces, up from a single health zone two months earlier.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] Uganda declared its linked outbreak over on 28 July 2026 after 20 cases and 2 deaths, indicating containment in at least one jurisdiction.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Provincial expansion timeline: Ituri (May), then four more provinces by 30 July, and Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9 by 13 August \u2014 roughly six provinces in three months.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] By late May 2026 confirmed/suspected cases had appeared across an area of Congo larger than Florida, per Congolese government figures.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No evidence found of confirmed or suspected 2026-outbreak cases in Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Kinshasa or other non-listed provinces; Maniema references were to a prior 2022 outbreak.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Cases have been reported in urban centers including Goma and Bunia, and one exported case reached Kampala, showing urban/travel-linked transmission potential.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO publishes weekly external situation reports (report #13 covering data to 9 Aug 2026) and Africa CDC issues frequent situational reports with province-level detail.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the outbreak a PHEIC on 16 May 2026 and raised national risk to \u0027very high\u0027; response is hampered by conflict, US funding cuts, and no approved Bundibugyo vaccine.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The six affected provinces are all contiguous in the northeast; adjacent unaffected provinces include Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, and Nord-Ubangi.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.0M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.73, Volume: $7.8M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.8M\n- \"Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.9M\n- \"Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $223.9K\n- \"Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.40, Volume: $206.4K\n- \"Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $5.9M\n- \"Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $176.2K\n- \"Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.09, Volume: $144.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No data after 16 August 2026 \u2014 the critical 3-week window before Sept 7 is unobserved\n - No explicit count of new health zones added week-over-week in August (expansion vs. plateau)\n - No historical base rate for inter-provincial spread intervals in large DRC Ebola outbreaks\n - No information on alerts/suspected cases under investigation in non-listed provinces\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether case growth was decelerating in late August 2026\n - Whether an imported case reaches a 7th province (single traveler suffices)\n - WHO/Africa CDC reporting lag versus the Sept 7 deadline\n - Effect of intensified response and possible vaccine/therapeutic deployment",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill the WHO report that the 2026 Ebola outbreak has spread to a 7th Congo province before September 7, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nWHO Disease Outbreak News August 1, 2026: [Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON614):\r\n\r\n\u003e The Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is intensifying, with sustained transmission and continued increases in reported cases and deaths. Initially confined to the Mongbwalu health zone in Ituri Province, over the last two months, the outbreak has expanded to five provinces (Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-U\u00e9l\u00e9 and Tshopo), now affecting 49 health zones. The outbreak is now the largest Ebola outbreak ever reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of 30 July 2026, a total of 3605 confirmed cases, including 1587 deaths, have been reported, corresponding to a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 44%. The continued increase in cases, expanding geographic spread, and persistently high mortality underscore the rapidly evolving nature of this public health emergency.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 45090, \"question_id\": 45240}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 7, 2026, the World Health Organization [reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/emergency-events/item/2026-e000253) that the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease [outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ebola_epidemic) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo\u00a0has expanded to a province other than Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-U\u00e9l\u00e9, Tshopo or Bas-Uele.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.35) Is the Bundibugyo virus outbreak in DRC still geographically expanding (new health zones/provinces added) as of the latest WHO or Africa CDC situation report before mid-August 2026? \u2014 Continued expansion momentum is the primary driver; an outbreak that has plateaued or is contracting is unlikely to add \n- (w=0.30) Based on the observed rate of new-province additions in this outbreak (6 provinces reached within ~5-6 months), does a Poisson/base-rate model imply \u003e50% chance of at least one additional new province in the ~5 weeks before Sept 7, 2026? \u2014 Quantifies the historical hazard rate of province-level spread in this specific epidemic and in prior large DRC Ebola ou\n- (w=0.25) Are there already suspected/probable cases, alerts, or confirmed exportations reported in a province outside the six listed (e.g., Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Bas-Congo/Kinshasa, Haut-Lomami, Kasai, or Mai-Ndombe)? \u2014 Leading indicator: pending investigations or alerts in a 7th province would make WHO confirmation within weeks highly li\n- (w=0.10) Will WHO publish at least one new Disease Outbreak News item or situation report with province-level breakdown between mid-August and September 7, 2026? \u2014 Resolution requires WHO reporting; a reporting gap could prevent YES even if spread occurs.\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO Weekly Situation Report #13 (data to 9 Aug 2026) reported 4,381 cumulative confirmed cases and 2,011 deaths, up 579 cases in ~1 week.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Africa CDC announced on 13 August 2026 that the outbreak had expanded to a sixth province, Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9, via an imported case in Buta.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] As of 5 August 2026, active transmission was concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu with recent spread to Gombari (Haut-U\u00e9l\u00e9) and Bafwasende (Tshopo).\n4. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 92 | UP | RECENT] WHO DON of 1 Aug 2026 stated the outbreak spans 49 health zones across five provinces, up from a single health zone two months earlier.\n5. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | RECENT] Uganda declared its linked outbreak over on 28 July 2026 after 20 cases and 2 deaths, indicating containment in at least one jurisdiction.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Provincial expansion timeline: Ituri (May), then four more provinces by 30 July, and Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9 by 13 August \u2014 roughly six provinces in three months.\n7. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | DATED] By late May 2026 confirmed/suspected cases had appeared across an area of Congo larger than Florida, per Congolese government figures.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] No evidence found of confirmed or suspected 2026-outbreak cases in Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Kinshasa or other non-listed provinces; Maniema references were to a prior 2022 outbreak.\n9. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Cases have been reported in urban centers including Goma and Bunia, and one exported case reached Kampala, showing urban/travel-linked transmission potential.\n10. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] WHO AFRO publishes weekly external situation reports (report #13 covering data to 9 Aug 2026) and Africa CDC issues frequent situational reports with province-level detail.\n11. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] WHO declared the outbreak a PHEIC on 16 May 2026 and raised national risk to \u0027very high\u0027; response is hampered by conflict, US funding cuts, and no approved Bundibugyo vaccine.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] The six affected provinces are all contiguous in the northeast; adjacent unaffected provinces include Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, and Nord-Ubangi.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.0M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.73, Volume: $7.8M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.8M\n- \"Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.9M\n- \"Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $223.9K\n- \"Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.40, Volume: $206.4K\n- \"Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $5.9M\n- \"Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $176.2K\n- \"Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.09, Volume: $144.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No data after 16 August 2026 \u2014 the critical 3-week window before Sept 7 is unobserved\n - No explicit count of new health zones added week-over-week in August (expansion vs. plateau)\n - No historical base rate for inter-provincial spread intervals in large DRC Ebola outbreaks\n - No information on alerts/suspected cases under investigation in non-listed provinces\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether case growth was decelerating in late August 2026\n - Whether an imported case reaches a 7th province (single traveler suffices)\n - WHO/Africa CDC reporting lag versus the Sept 7 deadline\n - Effect of intensified response and possible vaccine/therapeutic deployment\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.67,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.69205,
"rationale": "(a) The question closes 7 September 2026; with information available only through ~16 August, roughly three weeks of unobserved outbreak evolution remain. (b) Status quo: the outbreak is still actively expanding \u2014 4,381 confirmed cases and 2,011 deaths by 9 August (+579 in one week), 49+ health zones, and a sixth province (Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9) added via an imported case on 13 August; if that momentum simply continues, a 7th province is more likely than not within three weeks. (c) NO scenario: intensified WHO/Africa CDC response, ring containment, and the fact that the six affected provinces already cover most of the highly connected northeastern corridor mean the remaining adjacent provinces (Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, Nord-Ubangi) stay clear; new health zones keep being added but only inside already-affected provinces, and any late-August exportation is confirmed only after the 7 September cutoff. (d) YES scenario: a single infected traveler on the Bunia/Goma/Kisangani road-river network seeds a case in Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala or even Kinshasa \u2014 exactly the mechanism that produced the Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9 (Buta) case \u2014 and WHO AFRO\u0027s weekly external situation report with province-level tables confirms it within days. Reporting infrastructure is not a real constraint (weekly WHO AFRO sitreps plus Africa CDC updates). A Poisson hazard of ~1.5 new provinces/month over ~0.7 months gives \u03bb\u22481.0-1.1, i.e., ~65% for at least one addition, which I shade slightly down for response scale-up, saturation of the immediately adjacent high-traffic provinces, and confirmation lag.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.93,
"sq2": 0.85,
"sq3": 0.3,
"sq4": 0.96
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "Evidence of suspected/probable cases or active alerts under investigation in Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, Nord-Ubangi or Kinshasa would push me above 75%; clear signs of week-over-week case decline, no new health zones added in late August, and explicit WHO statements that spread is confined to the six provinces would push me below 40%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "health",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Combine an epidemiological hazard base rate for new-province spread with current evidence on whether the outbreak is still expanding and whether alerts already exist in a 7th province, weighting the empirical/leading-indicator evidence most heavily and discounting slightly for WHO reporting lag.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Is the Bundibugyo virus outbreak in DRC still geographically expanding (new health zones/provinces added) as of the latest WHO or Africa CDC situation report before mid-August 2026?",
"rationale": "Continued expansion momentum is the primary driver; an outbreak that has plateaued or is contracting is unlikely to add a 7th province.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Based on the observed rate of new-province additions in this outbreak (6 provinces reached within ~5-6 months), does a Poisson/base-rate model imply \u003e50% chance of at least one additional new province in the ~5 weeks before Sept 7, 2026?",
"rationale": "Quantifies the historical hazard rate of province-level spread in this specific epidemic and in prior large DRC Ebola outbreaks (e.g., 2018-20 Kivu).",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Are there already suspected/probable cases, alerts, or confirmed exportations reported in a province outside the six listed (e.g., Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Bas-Congo/Kinshasa, Haut-Lomami, Kasai, or Mai-Ndombe)?",
"rationale": "Leading indicator: pending investigations or alerts in a 7th province would make WHO confirmation within weeks highly likely.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will WHO publish at least one new Disease Outbreak News item or situation report with province-level breakdown between mid-August and September 7, 2026?",
"rationale": "Resolution requires WHO reporting; a reporting gap could prevent YES even if spread occurs.",
"weight": 0.1
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the latest WHO, Africa CDC, and DRC Ministry of Health reporting on the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease (Ebola) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Specifically: which provinces and how many health zones are currently affected, the date the 6th province (Bas-Uele) was added, whether any cases/alerts have been reported in additional provinces (Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Kasai, Kinshasa, Mai-Ndombe, Haut-Lomami), current case and death counts, epidemic trend (rising/plateau), and WHO reporting cadence (DON items, situation reports).",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Will the WHO report that the 2026 Ebola outbreak has spread to a 7th Congo province before September 7, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"WHO Bundibugyo virus disease DRC outbreak situation report provinces August 2026",
"Ebola DRC 2026 new province Maniema Tanganyika Sankuru confirmed case",
"2026 Ebola epidemic DRC health zones affected latest count"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"Ebola Bundibugyo Democratic Republic of Congo outbreak spreads new province",
"DRC Ebola outbreak cases deaths health zones WHO update",
"Ebola epidemic Congo Ituri North Kivu Tshopo Bas-Uele spread"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Province-addition hazard model.\n# Outbreak began ~Feb-Mar 2026 in Ituri; by 30 Jul 2026 five provinces; Bas-Uele added ~early Aug (6th).\n# Estimate rate of new-province events over the expansion phase.\nfor start_months, n_new in [(5,5),(4,5),(3,5),(2,4)]:\n rate_per_week = n_new/(start_months*4.345)\n # window: question creation ~ mid Aug to Sep 7 -\u003e use 3 to 5.5 weeks\n for wk in [3.0,4.0,5.5]:\n lam = rate_per_week*wk\n p = 1-np.exp(-lam)\n print(f\u0027phase={start_months}mo n_new={n_new} rate/wk={rate_per_week:.2f} weeks={wk} P(\u003e=1 new province)={p:.3f}\u0027)\n# Sensitivity: control efforts reduce hazard by factor f\nprint(\u0027--- with control-effort damping ---\u0027)\nfor f in [1.0,0.6,0.35,0.2]:\n lam = (5/(4*4.345))*4.0*f\n print(f\u0027damping={f} P={1-np.exp(-lam):.3f}\u0027)\n# Also require WHO reporting within window (prob r)\nfor r in [0.85,0.95]:\n lam=(5/(4*4.345))*4.0*0.5\n print(f\u0027reporting prob {r}: joint P={(1-np.exp(-lam))*r:.3f}\u0027)",
"description": "Poisson hazard base rate for adding a new affected province in the remaining window, with damping for control efforts and WHO reporting probability."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-16T15:30:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nWHO Disease Outbreak News August 1, 2026: [Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus - Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON614):\r\n\r\n\u003e The Bundibugyo virus disease (BVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is intensifying, with sustained transmission and continued increases in reported cases and deaths. Initially confined to the Mongbwalu health zone in Ituri Province, over the last two months, the outbreak has expanded to five provinces (Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-U\u00e9l\u00e9 and Tshopo), now affecting 49 health zones. The outbreak is now the largest Ebola outbreak ever reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of 30 July 2026, a total of 3605 confirmed cases, including 1587 deaths, have been reported, corresponding to a crude case fatality ratio (CFR) of 44%. The continued increase in cases, expanding geographic spread, and persistently high mortality underscore the rapidly evolving nature of this public health emergency.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 45090, \"question_id\": 45240}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 7, 2026, the World Health Organization [reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/emergency-events/item/2026-e000253) that the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease [outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ebola_epidemic) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo\u00a0has expanded to a province other than Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-U\u00e9l\u00e9, Tshopo or Bas-Uele.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will the WHO report that the 2026 Ebola outbreak has spread to a 7th Congo province before September 7, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.0M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.73, Volume: $7.8M\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.8M\n- \"Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.4M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.14, Volume: $1.9M\n- \"Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.47, Volume: $223.9K\n- \"Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.40, Volume: $206.4K\n- \"Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $5.9M\n- \"Will ADO Den Haag win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $176.2K\n- \"Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-08-16?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.09, Volume: $144.5K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 24.18,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 27.15,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.55,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "16 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.1,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Poisson hazard base rate for adding a new affected province ",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "WHO AFRO Weekly Situation Report #13 (data to 9 Aug 2026) reported 4,381 cumulative confirmed cases and 2,011 deaths, up 579 cases in ~1 week.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Africa CDC announced on 13 August 2026 that the outbreak had expanded to a sixth province, Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9, via an imported case in Buta.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "As of 5 August 2026, active transmission was concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu with recent spread to Gombari (Haut-U\u00e9l\u00e9) and Bafwasende (Tshopo).",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "WHO DON of 1 Aug 2026 stated the outbreak spans 49 health zones across five provinces, up from a single health zone two months earlier.",
"credibility": 92,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Uganda declared its linked outbreak over on 28 July 2026 after 20 cases and 2 deaths, indicating containment in at least one jurisdiction.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Provincial expansion timeline: Ituri (May), then four more provinces by 30 July, and Bas-U\u00e9l\u00e9 by 13 August \u2014 roughly six provinces in three months.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "By late May 2026 confirmed/suspected cases had appeared across an area of Congo larger than Florida, per Congolese government figures.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "No evidence found of confirmed or suspected 2026-outbreak cases in Maniema, Tanganyika, Sankuru, Kinshasa or other non-listed provinces; Maniema references were to a prior 2022 outbreak.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Cases have been reported in urban centers including Goma and Bunia, and one exported case reached Kampala, showing urban/travel-linked transmission potential.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "WHO AFRO publishes weekly external situation reports (report #13 covering data to 9 Aug 2026) and Africa CDC issues frequent situational reports with province-level detail.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "WHO declared the outbreak a PHEIC on 16 May 2026 and raised national risk to \u0027very high\u0027; response is hampered by conflict, US funding cuts, and no approved Bundibugyo vaccine.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The six affected provinces are all contiguous in the northeast; adjacent unaffected provinces include Maniema, Tanganyika, Mongala, and Nord-Ubangi.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No data after 16 August 2026 \u2014 the critical 3-week window before Sept 7 is unobserved",
"No explicit count of new health zones added week-over-week in August (expansion vs. plateau)",
"No historical base rate for inter-provincial spread intervals in large DRC Ebola outbreaks",
"No information on alerts/suspected cases under investigation in non-listed provinces"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether case growth was decelerating in late August 2026",
"Whether an imported case reaches a 7th province (single traveler suffices)",
"WHO/Africa CDC reporting lag versus the Sept 7 deadline",
"Effect of intensified response and possible vaccine/therapeutic deployment"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 58.61,
"plan": 28.6,
"research": 27.16,
"synthesis": 20.79
}
}