Anchor on the large existing Soros lead and the short one-month window, using news/tracker research to check for any August mega-gifts or filing-driven jumps; combine sub-question probabilities as a weighted average where sq1 dominates and sq2/sq4 quantify the overtaking/Other paths.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.6M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.7M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.24, Volume: $7.1M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.6M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $664.8K - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M - "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.4M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.0M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $1.6M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Washington Post's leaderboard lists Soros (via Democracy PAC/Fund for Policy Reform) at roughly $102-103 million, the top individual donor overall in the 2026 cycle. 2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Second-place Democratic entity Majority Forward stood at $61 million as of August 1, roughly $41 million behind Soros. 3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Reid Hoffman and Michael Bloomberg are cited as major Democratic donors but far behind Soros in the WaPo tally. 4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article between May 17 and August 15, 2026 reports any new Democratic megadonation approaching $40 million in August 2026. 5. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of one-month contribution accrual estimates ~92% chance Soros remains top Democratic donor, 7% Majority Forward, 1% other. 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Majority Forward is a 501(c)(4) that does not disclose donors, and its counted totals derive from its transfers to Senate Majority PAC reported in FEC filings. 7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates roughly 11% probability Majority Forward adds more than $41 million during August 2026. 8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Corporate-backed super PACs had spent over $517 million in the 2026 cycle by early August, indicating heavy and accelerating outside-money flows ahead of November. 9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The WaPo interactive was published June 25, 2026 and has been updated periodically, including with FEC data through July 20, 2026. 10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Successive WaPo versions showed rising totals ($880M to $1.05B GOP; $290M to $360M Democratic), confirming the leaderboard incorporates new filings over time. 11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of any single Democratic contribution exceeding $50 million made in August 2026. 12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Only about $793,800 of Soros's total was given in his own name; the rest flowed through Democracy PAC, which WaPo attributes to him. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.6M - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.7M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.24, Volume: $7.1M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.6M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $664.8K - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M - "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.4M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.0M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $1.6M Information gaps: - No direct look at the WaPo leaderboard as of late August 2026 - No August 2026 FEC monthly/semi-annual filing data for Democracy PAC or Senate Majority PAC - No historical base rate for month-over-month rank changes on this leaderboard - Unclear WaPo update cadence and whether a Sept 1 snapshot reflects August filings Key uncertainties: - Whether Majority Forward made a very large August transfer to Senate Majority PAC - Whether Soros/Democracy PAC also added funds, widening the gap - Whether WaPo aggregates donors differently (family vs. entity) in later updates - Possibility of an undisclosed new Democratic megadonor entering the top ranks
You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.
## Question
Who will be the largest Democratic donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
The Washington Post, [Meet the megadonors pouring more than \$1.3 billion into the 2026 election](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/): 
> The top donors in American politics have poured more than \$1.3 billion so far this cycle into influencing the country’s politics, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Election Commission data.
> The donors lean Republican, and cash could prove critical for the GOP to maintain control of Congress in November. In the first half of 2026, Republican-leaning donors gave \$880 million, compared with \$290 million from Democratic-leaning givers and \$200 million from bipartisan and special interest groups.
> But most of the money, regardless of affiliation, was given to super PACs that can legally accept unlimited sums.
According to the Post, as of August 1, 2026 the highest Democratic donors were: 
1. George Soros: \$102 million.
2. Majority Forward: \$61 million.
`{"format": "metac_reveal_and_close_in_period", "info": {"post_id": 45017, "question_id": 45170}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the Democratic-aligned donor, according to the Washington Post at its Top 50 donors [leaderboard](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/), who has donated the highest amount in the 2026 election cycle, as of September 1, 2026.
## Fine Print
If someone else is the top donor or in the event of a tie, the question resolves as **Other**.
***
This question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45017) which opened on 2026-08-03 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.
## Options
- George Soros
- Majority Forward
- Other
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.55) Will George Soros still be listed as the top Democratic-aligned donor on the Washington Post Top 50 donors leaderboard as of September 1, 2026? — Soros led with $102M vs $61M for the runner-up as of Aug 1; a ~$41M lead is very hard to erase in one month, so this is
- (w=0.25) Will Majority Forward (or any single other Democratic donor) add more than $41 million in reported contributions between August 1 and September 1, 2026, enough to overtake Soros? — Direct test of the only plausible path to a different resolution; depends on monthly/semiannual FEC filing timing and su
- (w=0.12) Will the Washington Post leaderboard update its underlying FEC data at least once between August 1 and September 1, 2026 (i.e., new filings incorporated rather than static totals)? — If the tracker is not refreshed with new data before Sept 1, the Aug 1 standings simply persist, locking in Soros.
- (w=0.08) Will a previously lower-ranked Democratic megadonor (e.g., Reid Hoffman, Michael Bloomberg, Karla Jurvetson, Fred Eychaner, Senate Majority PAC-linked entities) make a single reported contribution exceeding $50 million in August 2026? — Covers the 'Other' resolution path via a late-cycle mega-gift ahead of the fall campaign.
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Washington Post's leaderboard lists Soros (via Democracy PAC/Fund for Policy Reform) at roughly $102-103 million, the top individual donor overall in the 2026 cycle.
2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Second-place Democratic entity Majority Forward stood at $61 million as of August 1, roughly $41 million behind Soros.
3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Reid Hoffman and Michael Bloomberg are cited as major Democratic donors but far behind Soros in the WaPo tally.
4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article between May 17 and August 15, 2026 reports any new Democratic megadonation approaching $40 million in August 2026.
5. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of one-month contribution accrual estimates ~92% chance Soros remains top Democratic donor, 7% Majority Forward, 1% other.
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Majority Forward is a 501(c)(4) that does not disclose donors, and its counted totals derive from its transfers to Senate Majority PAC reported in FEC filings.
7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates roughly 11% probability Majority Forward adds more than $41 million during August 2026.
8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Corporate-backed super PACs had spent over $517 million in the 2026 cycle by early August, indicating heavy and accelerating outside-money flows ahead of November.
9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The WaPo interactive was published June 25, 2026 and has been updated periodically, including with FEC data through July 20, 2026.
10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Successive WaPo versions showed rising totals ($880M to $1.05B GOP; $290M to $360M Democratic), confirming the leaderboard incorporates new filings over time.
11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of any single Democratic contribution exceeding $50 million made in August 2026.
12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Only about $793,800 of Soros's total was given in his own name; the rest flowed through Democracy PAC, which WaPo attributes to him.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.6M
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.7M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.24, Volume: $7.1M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.6M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.41, Volume: $664.8K
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M
- "Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.4M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.0M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.20, Volume: $1.6M
Information gaps:
- No direct look at the WaPo leaderboard as of late August 2026
- No August 2026 FEC monthly/semi-annual filing data for Democracy PAC or Senate Majority PAC
- No historical base rate for month-over-month rank changes on this leaderboard
- Unclear WaPo update cadence and whether a Sept 1 snapshot reflects August filings
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Majority Forward made a very large August transfer to Senate Majority PAC
- Whether Soros/Democracy PAC also added funds, widening the gap
- Whether WaPo aggregates donors differently (family vs. entity) in later updates
- Possibility of an undisclosed new Democratic megadonor entering the top ranks
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — the option most likely if nothing changes from today.
(c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.
## Calibration guidance
- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.
- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don't drop options to ~0% — leave ≥3-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.
- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness — most options are not equally likely.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution — 4-7 sentences total>",
"probabilities": {
"George Soros": <prob>,
"Majority Forward": <prob>,
"Other": <prob>
}
}
Probabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Washington Post\u0027s leaderboard lists Soros (via Democracy PAC/Fund for Policy Reform) at roughly $102-103 million, the top individual donor overall in the 2026 cycle.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Second-place Democratic entity Majority Forward stood at $61 million as of August 1, roughly $41 million behind Soros.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Reid Hoffman and Michael Bloomberg are cited as major Democratic donors but far behind Soros in the WaPo tally.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article between May 17 and August 15, 2026 reports any new Democratic megadonation approaching $40 million in August 2026.\n5. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of one-month contribution accrual estimates ~92% chance Soros remains top Democratic donor, 7% Majority Forward, 1% other.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Majority Forward is a 501(c)(4) that does not disclose donors, and its counted totals derive from its transfers to Senate Majority PAC reported in FEC filings.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates roughly 11% probability Majority Forward adds more than $41 million during August 2026.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Corporate-backed super PACs had spent over $517 million in the 2026 cycle by early August, indicating heavy and accelerating outside-money flows ahead of November.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The WaPo interactive was published June 25, 2026 and has been updated periodically, including with FEC data through July 20, 2026.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Successive WaPo versions showed rising totals ($880M to $1.05B GOP; $290M to $360M Democratic), confirming the leaderboard incorporates new filings over time.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of any single Democratic contribution exceeding $50 million made in August 2026.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Only about $793,800 of Soros\u0027s total was given in his own name; the rest flowed through Democracy PAC, which WaPo attributes to him.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.6M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.7M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.24, Volume: $7.1M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.6M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $664.8K\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.4M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.0M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $1.6M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct look at the WaPo leaderboard as of late August 2026\n - No August 2026 FEC monthly/semi-annual filing data for Democracy PAC or Senate Majority PAC\n - No historical base rate for month-over-month rank changes on this leaderboard\n - Unclear WaPo update cadence and whether a Sept 1 snapshot reflects August filings\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Majority Forward made a very large August transfer to Senate Majority PAC\n - Whether Soros/Democracy PAC also added funds, widening the gap\n - Whether WaPo aggregates donors differently (family vs. entity) in later updates\n - Possibility of an undisclosed new Democratic megadonor entering the top ranks",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Estimate the probability of each option for this Metaculus multiple-choice question.\n\n## Question\nWho will be the largest Democratic donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nThe Washington Post, [Meet the megadonors pouring more than \\$1.3 billion into the 2026 election](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e The top donors in American politics have poured more than \\$1.3 billion so far this cycle into influencing the country\u2019s politics, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Election Commission data.\n\n\u003e The donors lean Republican, and cash could prove critical for the GOP to maintain control of Congress in November. In the first half of 2026, Republican-leaning donors gave \\$880 million, compared with \\$290 million from Democratic-leaning givers and \\$200 million from bipartisan and special interest groups.\n\n\u003e But most of the money, regardless of affiliation, was given to super PACs that can legally accept unlimited sums.\n\nAccording to the Post, as of August 1, 2026 the highest Democratic donors were:\u0026#x20;\n\n1. George Soros: \\$102 million.\n2. Majority Forward: \\$61 million.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 45017, \"question_id\": 45170}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the Democratic-aligned donor, according to the Washington Post at its Top 50 donors [leaderboard](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/), who has donated the highest amount in the 2026 election cycle, as of September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf someone else is the top donor or in the event of a tie, the question resolves as **Other**.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45017) which opened on 2026-08-03 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.\n\n## Options\n - George Soros\n - Majority Forward\n - Other\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.55) Will George Soros still be listed as the top Democratic-aligned donor on the Washington Post Top 50 donors leaderboard as of September 1, 2026? \u2014 Soros led with $102M vs $61M for the runner-up as of Aug 1; a ~$41M lead is very hard to erase in one month, so this is \n- (w=0.25) Will Majority Forward (or any single other Democratic donor) add more than $41 million in reported contributions between August 1 and September 1, 2026, enough to overtake Soros? \u2014 Direct test of the only plausible path to a different resolution; depends on monthly/semiannual FEC filing timing and su\n- (w=0.12) Will the Washington Post leaderboard update its underlying FEC data at least once between August 1 and September 1, 2026 (i.e., new filings incorporated rather than static totals)? \u2014 If the tracker is not refreshed with new data before Sept 1, the Aug 1 standings simply persist, locking in Soros.\n- (w=0.08) Will a previously lower-ranked Democratic megadonor (e.g., Reid Hoffman, Michael Bloomberg, Karla Jurvetson, Fred Eychaner, Senate Majority PAC-linked entities) make a single reported contribution exceeding $50 million in August 2026? \u2014 Covers the \u0027Other\u0027 resolution path via a late-cycle mega-gift ahead of the fall campaign.\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 90 | UP | RECENT] Washington Post\u0027s leaderboard lists Soros (via Democracy PAC/Fund for Policy Reform) at roughly $102-103 million, the top individual donor overall in the 2026 cycle.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | RECENT] Second-place Democratic entity Majority Forward stood at $61 million as of August 1, roughly $41 million behind Soros.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | RECENT] Reid Hoffman and Michael Bloomberg are cited as major Democratic donors but far behind Soros in the WaPo tally.\n4. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No article between May 17 and August 15, 2026 reports any new Democratic megadonation approaching $40 million in August 2026.\n5. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo simulation of one-month contribution accrual estimates ~92% chance Soros remains top Democratic donor, 7% Majority Forward, 1% other.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Majority Forward is a 501(c)(4) that does not disclose donors, and its counted totals derive from its transfers to Senate Majority PAC reported in FEC filings.\n7. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Simulation estimates roughly 11% probability Majority Forward adds more than $41 million during August 2026.\n8. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Corporate-backed super PACs had spent over $517 million in the 2026 cycle by early August, indicating heavy and accelerating outside-money flows ahead of November.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] The WaPo interactive was published June 25, 2026 and has been updated periodically, including with FEC data through July 20, 2026.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Successive WaPo versions showed rising totals ($880M to $1.05B GOP; $290M to $360M Democratic), confirming the leaderboard incorporates new filings over time.\n11. [sq4 | article_search | WEAK cred 50 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of any single Democratic contribution exceeding $50 million made in August 2026.\n12. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] Only about $793,800 of Soros\u0027s total was given in his own name; the rest flowed through Democracy PAC, which WaPo attributes to him.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.6M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.7M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.24, Volume: $7.1M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.6M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $664.8K\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.4M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.0M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $1.6M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct look at the WaPo leaderboard as of late August 2026\n - No August 2026 FEC monthly/semi-annual filing data for Democracy PAC or Senate Majority PAC\n - No historical base rate for month-over-month rank changes on this leaderboard\n - Unclear WaPo update cadence and whether a Sept 1 snapshot reflects August filings\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether Majority Forward made a very large August transfer to Senate Majority PAC\n - Whether Soros/Democracy PAC also added funds, widening the gap\n - Whether WaPo aggregates donors differently (family vs. entity) in later updates\n - Possibility of an undisclosed new Democratic megadonor entering the top ranks\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 the option most likely if nothing changes from today.\n (c) An outcome that would be SURPRISING but plausible.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Status quo anchoring.** Good forecasters put extra weight on the status quo option because the world changes slowly most of the time.\n- **Leave moderate probability on most options.** Good forecasters don\u0027t drop options to ~0% \u2014 leave \u22653-5% on every option to account for unexpected outcomes, unless you have strong specific evidence ruling them out.\n- Avoid uniform-distribution laziness \u2014 most options are not equally likely.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) for these options appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong prior and stay close to them absent specific contrary evidence.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) above, then explain your distribution \u2014 4-7 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"probabilities\": {\n \"George Soros\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Majority Forward\": \u003cprob\u003e,\n \"Other\": \u003cprob\u003e\n }\n}\n\nProbabilities MUST sum to ~1.0 (renormalization is applied; close enough is fine).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"probabilities": {
"George Soros": 0.87,
"Majority Forward": 0.09,
"Other": 0.04
},
"rationale": "(a) Only about one month separates the last observed snapshot (Aug 1, Soros $102M vs Majority Forward $61M) from the Sept 1 resolution date, and WaPo updates lag FEC filings, so effectively even less new data will be incorporated. (b) Status quo is George Soros remaining the top Democratic-aligned donor: a ~$41M gap is very large to close in a single month, and Soros/Democracy PAC is also likely to continue adding. (c) A surprising but plausible outcome would be Majority Forward making a massive August transfer to Senate Majority PAC ahead of the fall ad blitz \u2014 c4 transfers are lumpy and can arrive in $30-50M chunks \u2014 pushing it past Soros; slightly less plausible is a previously unranked Democratic megadonor (Hoffman, Bloomberg, Jurvetson) dropping $60M+ in one month, or WaPo re-aggregating entities. Filing timing matters: monthly filers report August activity on Sept 20, so a Sept 1 snapshot likely reflects only through July/mid-August data, further locking in Soros. Simulation and reporting evidence both point to ~90%+ for Soros, with the residual mostly on Majority Forward given its proximity and lumpy funding pattern. I\u0027ll set Soros at 0.90, Majority Forward at 0.07, and Other at 0.03.",
"top_option": "George Soros"
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "politics",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Anchor on the large existing Soros lead and the short one-month window, using news/tracker research to check for any August mega-gifts or filing-driven jumps; combine sub-question probabilities as a weighted average where sq1 dominates and sq2/sq4 quantify the overtaking/Other paths.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will George Soros still be listed as the top Democratic-aligned donor on the Washington Post Top 50 donors leaderboard as of September 1, 2026?",
"rationale": "Soros led with $102M vs $61M for the runner-up as of Aug 1; a ~$41M lead is very hard to erase in one month, so this is the dominant driver.",
"weight": 0.55
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will Majority Forward (or any single other Democratic donor) add more than $41 million in reported contributions between August 1 and September 1, 2026, enough to overtake Soros?",
"rationale": "Direct test of the only plausible path to a different resolution; depends on monthly/semiannual FEC filing timing and super PAC transfer surges.",
"weight": 0.25
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will the Washington Post leaderboard update its underlying FEC data at least once between August 1 and September 1, 2026 (i.e., new filings incorporated rather than static totals)?",
"rationale": "If the tracker is not refreshed with new data before Sept 1, the Aug 1 standings simply persist, locking in Soros.",
"weight": 0.12
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will a previously lower-ranked Democratic megadonor (e.g., Reid Hoffman, Michael Bloomberg, Karla Jurvetson, Fred Eychaner, Senate Majority PAC-linked entities) make a single reported contribution exceeding $50 million in August 2026?",
"rationale": "Covers the \u0027Other\u0027 resolution path via a late-cycle mega-gift ahead of the fall campaign.",
"weight": 0.08
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"George Soros 2026 election donations super PAC",
"Majority Forward Senate Majority PAC contributions 2026",
"biggest political donors 2026 midterms FEC filings"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the current state of the Washington Post\u0027s 2026 cycle Top 50 donors leaderboard, specifically the largest Democratic-aligned donors (George Soros, Majority Forward, Reid Hoffman, Michael Bloomberg, etc.) and their reported totals in August 2026. Also determine how frequently the Post updates the tracker and whether any new FEC filings in August 2026 (monthly filings due Aug 20 for July activity) shifted the Democratic rankings.",
"max_searches": 4,
"question_title": "Who will be the largest Democratic donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Washington Post top 50 donors 2026 leaderboard Soros",
"Majority Forward August 2026 contribution millions",
"largest Democratic donor 2026 cycle FEC August"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nnp.random.seed(0)\n# Aug 1 totals ($M)\nsoros0, mf0 = 102.0, 61.0\nN=20000\n# monthly August additions: heavy-tailed, MF (super PAC transfer vehicle) can spike\nsoros_add = np.random.gamma(1.2, 8.0, N) # mean ~10M\nmf_add = np.random.gamma(0.9, 20.0, N) # mean ~18M, fat tail\nother_top = np.random.gamma(0.7, 25.0, N) # best other Dem donor cumulative-by-Sep1 proxy\nsoros = soros0 + soros_add\nmf = mf0 + mf_add\np_soros = np.mean((soros\u003emf)\u0026(soros\u003eother_top))\np_mf = np.mean((mf\u003esoros)\u0026(mf\u003eother_top))\np_other = 1-p_soros-p_mf\nprint(\u0027P(Soros)\u0027,round(p_soros,3),\u0027P(MajorityForward)\u0027,round(p_mf,3),\u0027P(Other)\u0027,round(p_other,3))\nprint(\u0027P(MF gains \u003e41M in Aug)\u0027, round(np.mean(mf_add\u003e41),3))",
"description": "Monte Carlo of one-month contribution accrual to estimate probability Soros retains the top Democratic donor slot by Sept 1."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-15T12:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nThe Washington Post, [Meet the megadonors pouring more than \\$1.3 billion into the 2026 election](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/):\u0026#x20;\n\n\u003e The top donors in American politics have poured more than \\$1.3 billion so far this cycle into influencing the country\u2019s politics, according to a Washington Post analysis of Federal Election Commission data.\n\n\u003e The donors lean Republican, and cash could prove critical for the GOP to maintain control of Congress in November. In the first half of 2026, Republican-leaning donors gave \\$880 million, compared with \\$290 million from Democratic-leaning givers and \\$200 million from bipartisan and special interest groups.\n\n\u003e But most of the money, regardless of affiliation, was given to super PACs that can legally accept unlimited sums.\n\nAccording to the Post, as of August 1, 2026 the highest Democratic donors were:\u0026#x20;\n\n1. George Soros: \\$102 million.\n2. Majority Forward: \\$61 million.\n\n`{\"format\": \"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\", \"info\": {\"post_id\": 45017, \"question_id\": 45170}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the Democratic-aligned donor, according to the Washington Post at its Top 50 donors [leaderboard](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2026/06/25/these-are-biggest-individual-donors-2026-election-cycle/), who has donated the highest amount in the 2026 election cycle, as of September 1, 2026.\n\n## Fine Print\nIf someone else is the top donor or in the event of a tie, the question resolves as **Other**.\n\n***\nThis question\u0027s information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45017) which opened on 2026-08-03 12:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print of the linked original question. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question\u0027s resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.",
"options": [
"George Soros",
"Majority Forward",
"Other"
],
"question_type": "multiple_choice",
"title": "Who will be the largest Democratic donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.6M\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.74, Volume: $7.7M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.24, Volume: $7.1M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.6M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.41, Volume: $664.8K\n- \"Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $5.3M\n- \"Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $2.4M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $3.0M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.20, Volume: $1.6M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 0.64,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "28 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 22.29,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "7 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 29.74,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.14,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo of one-month contribution accrual to estimate pr",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Washington Post\u0027s leaderboard lists Soros (via Democracy PAC/Fund for Policy Reform) at roughly $102-103 million, the top individual donor overall in the 2026 cycle.",
"credibility": 90,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Second-place Democratic entity Majority Forward stood at $61 million as of August 1, roughly $41 million behind Soros.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Reid Hoffman and Michael Bloomberg are cited as major Democratic donors but far behind Soros in the WaPo tally.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "No article between May 17 and August 15, 2026 reports any new Democratic megadonation approaching $40 million in August 2026.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo simulation of one-month contribution accrual estimates ~92% chance Soros remains top Democratic donor, 7% Majority Forward, 1% other.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Majority Forward is a 501(c)(4) that does not disclose donors, and its counted totals derive from its transfers to Senate Majority PAC reported in FEC filings.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Simulation estimates roughly 11% probability Majority Forward adds more than $41 million during August 2026.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Corporate-backed super PACs had spent over $517 million in the 2026 cycle by early August, indicating heavy and accelerating outside-money flows ahead of November.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The WaPo interactive was published June 25, 2026 and has been updated periodically, including with FEC data through July 20, 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Successive WaPo versions showed rising totals ($880M to $1.05B GOP; $290M to $360M Democratic), confirming the leaderboard incorporates new filings over time.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "No reporting found of any single Democratic contribution exceeding $50 million made in August 2026.",
"credibility": 50,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Only about $793,800 of Soros\u0027s total was given in his own name; the rest flowed through Democracy PAC, which WaPo attributes to him.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct look at the WaPo leaderboard as of late August 2026",
"No August 2026 FEC monthly/semi-annual filing data for Democracy PAC or Senate Majority PAC",
"No historical base rate for month-over-month rank changes on this leaderboard",
"Unclear WaPo update cadence and whether a Sept 1 snapshot reflects August filings"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether Majority Forward made a very large August transfer to Senate Majority PAC",
"Whether Soros/Democracy PAC also added funds, widening the gap",
"Whether WaPo aggregates donors differently (family vs. entity) in later updates",
"Possibility of an undisclosed new Democratic megadonor entering the top ranks"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 22.62,
"plan": 24.15,
"research": 29.74,
"synthesis": 19.73
}
}