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Will the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 become law before September 10, 2026?
30.2%
Submitted p(YES)
14.0%
Holistic gut estimate
weighted_average
Fermi logic
politics
Domain
Plan 21.33s
Treat enactment as a correlated sequential gauntlet (Senate passage -> identical House passage -> presidential signature -> calendar feasibility) and blend the sub-question probabilities with weights emphasizing the House and White House choke points, cross-checked against a chain-multiplication base rate for Senate-passed bills becoming law.
Sub-questions (4)
sq1
Will the Senate pass S.5025 (or the House-passed vehicle H.R.2913 containing the sanctions text) by final floor vote before July 2026?
Senate cloture/advancement already reported; a completed Senate passage vote is the first hard gate and a strong leading indicator of enactment.
w=0.25
sq2
Will the House pass identical text to the Senate bill (or the Senate pass the House bill) so that one chamber-agreed version is presented to the President before September 10, 2026?
House floor scheduling under Speaker leadership and White House deference has historically been the main choke point for Russia sanctions bills; bicameral identical passage is required.
w=0.30
sq3
Will President Trump publicly support (or decline to oppose/veto) the bill, i.e., sign it rather than block it, before September 10, 2026?
Trump's posture on Russia diplomacy is decisive; leadership has repeatedly conditioned floor action on his blessing, and a veto threat would stall enactment.
w=0.30
sq4
Will the enactment occur within the compressed calendar window (session days remaining before Sept 10, 2026, including August recess and midterm-year dynamics)?
Even with political will, the legislative calendar (August recess, appropriations crunch, election-year floor time) constrains whether the process finishes before the deadline.
w=0.15
Tool requests (4)
congress_bills
sq1, sq2, sq4
{"congress_number": 119, "query": "Sanctioning Russia Act Graham S.5025 H.R.2913"}
claude_news
sq1, sq2, sq3
{"brief": "Find the current legislative status of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 (S.5025 and H.R.2913): Senate cloture/passage votes and dates, House scheduling and Speaker Johnson\u0027s statements, President Trump\u0027s stated position or veto threat, any amendments (presidential waiver authority), and expected timeline for enactment.", "max_searches": 4, "question_title": "Will the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 become law before September 10, 2026?"}
article_search
sq2, sq3
{"lookback_days": 90, "queries": ["Sanctioning Russia Act Senate vote Graham bill", "House vote Russia sanctions bill Speaker Johnson schedule", "Trump Russia sanctions bill sign veto position"]}
code_execution
sq4
{"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base rate: bills that clear one chamber overwhelmingly -\u003e enacted within ~9 months\n# Historical reference: Senate-passed bills becoming law same Congress ~ 25-40%; high-salience veto-relevant sanctions bills higher when veto-proof margins exist\np_senate_pass=0.9\np_house_pass_given_senate=0.6\np_signed_or_veto_override=0.75\nprint(\u0027chain\u0027, p_senate_pass*p_house_pass_given_senate*p_signed_or_veto_override)\n# Monte Carlo with timing haircut for Sept 10 2026 deadline\nrng=np.random.default_rng(0)\nsims=rng.random((100000,4))\u003cnp.array([0.9,0.6,0.75,0.7])\nprint(\u0027with timing\u0027, sims.all(axis=1).mean())", "description": "Rough chain base-rate and timing-haircut simulation for enactment probability"}
Research 30.57s · 4 tool(s) · 0 error(s)
congress_bills
ok
ok
0.85s
claude_news
ok
14 citations
30.57s
article_search
ok
22 articles
0.65s
code_execution
ok
Rough chain base-rate and timing-haircut simulation for enac
0.16s
Cross-market signals
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.71, Volume: $7.4M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.27, Volume: $6.9M - "Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $639.9K - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $340.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.96, Volume: $329.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $2.8M
Evidence Synthesis 36.21s · 12 items
The Senate passed the Graham-championed Russia sanctions bill 86-11 on Friday, August 7, 2026, sending it to the House.
Senate passage occurred in August 2026, after the 'before July 2026' threshold specified in sq1.
On July 10, 2026, Graham, Blumenthal, Shaheen and Wicker announced an agreement with the Trump administration to move an updated Russia sanctions package.
Reporting notes prior versions of the measure repeatedly stalled after resistance from the White House over more than a year.
In June 2026 the House passed a Ukraine aid bill with Russian oil/banking sanctions 226-195, with 18 Republicans defying Trump and Speaker Johnson.
Speaker Johnson repeatedly lost control of the House floor in June 2026 to hardliners, once sending members home early after abandoning the agenda.
No reporting found of the House scheduling or holding a vote on the Senate-passed sanctions text after August 7, 2026.
Congress faced a lengthy August recess and a midterm sprint, with government funding and other high-priority items crowding limited session days.
With Senate passage on Aug 7 and Labor Day on Sept 7, 2026, the House would have only a handful of post-recess session days before Sept 10.
In July 2026 some Democrats objected the bill would hand too much sanctions-waiver power to Trump, and a single senator's delay could have blocked floor time.
After Graham's July 11 death, lawmakers including Rep. Mike Turner framed passing the sanctions bill as part of his legacy, creating symbolic momentum.
Congressional bill-tracking queries returned no records for S.5025 or H.R.2913 status, so official legislative-step confirmation is unavailable.
Information gaps
- Exact 2026 House legislative calendar / return date after August recess
- Base rate: share of Senate-passed bills enacted within ~30 days
- Whether Senate passed S.5025 or amended H.R.2913 (affects need for second chamber action)
- Any explicit Trump or Johnson statement on signing/scheduling the Senate-passed text
Key uncertainties
- Whether Johnson schedules a House vote immediately post-recess
- Whether Trump signs promptly or slow-walks/vetoes
- Whether House amends text, forcing another Senate vote
- Competing floor time from government funding fight and Iran war
Forecast 50.27s · opus, secondary
Sub-question estimates
sq1
0.050
sq2
0.200
sq3
0.750
sq4
0.170
Rationale
(a) Roughly one month remains: today is ~August 8-14, 2026, and the deadline is September 10, 2026. (b) Status quo: the Senate passed the bill 86-11 on August 7, 2026 and sent it to the House, but the House is in its August recess and typically returns only the week after Labor Day (Sept 7, 2026), leaving perhaps 2-3 session days before Sept 10 for House passage plus presidential signature. Absent an unusual pro-forma/unanimous-consent maneuver or early return, nothing becomes law by the deadline. (c) NO scenario (most likely): the House returns Sept 8-9, Johnson faces a government-funding crunch and hardliner floor-control problems, wants to amend the waiver provisions or wait for explicit White House sign-off, and the bill is signed later in September or October. (d) YES scenario: symbolic momentum from Graham's death and the 86-11 Senate margin push Johnson to bring it up under suspension immediately on return (or the House recalls early), it passes with a large bipartisan vote, and Trump — who reportedly struck a deal on an updated package on July 10 — signs within a day or two. That chain is plausible but requires everything to break fast in a 2-3 day window. Trump's willingness to sign is the least binding constraint; calendar and House scheduling are the binding ones.
What would change my mind
Above 70%: an announced House vote scheduled for the week of Sept 8 (or an early House return) on the exact Senate-passed text plus a Trump statement that he will sign. Below 30% is already my view; confirmation that the House calendar has no voting days before Sept 10 or that Johnson intends to amend the bill would push me toward 5%.
Evidence brief shown to forecaster
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Senate passed the Graham-championed Russia sanctions bill 86-11 on Friday, August 7, 2026, sending it to the House. 2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Senate passage occurred in August 2026, after the 'before July 2026' threshold specified in sq1. 3. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] On July 10, 2026, Graham, Blumenthal, Shaheen and Wicker announced an agreement with the Trump administration to move an updated Russia sanctions package. 4. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Reporting notes prior versions of the measure repeatedly stalled after resistance from the White House over more than a year. 5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] In June 2026 the House passed a Ukraine aid bill with Russian oil/banking sanctions 226-195, with 18 Republicans defying Trump and Speaker Johnson. 6. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Speaker Johnson repeatedly lost control of the House floor in June 2026 to hardliners, once sending members home early after abandoning the agenda. 7. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of the House scheduling or holding a vote on the Senate-passed sanctions text after August 7, 2026. 8. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | RECENT] Congress faced a lengthy August recess and a midterm sprint, with government funding and other high-priority items crowding limited session days. 9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] With Senate passage on Aug 7 and Labor Day on Sept 7, 2026, the House would have only a handful of post-recess session days before Sept 10. 10. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] In July 2026 some Democrats objected the bill would hand too much sanctions-waiver power to Trump, and a single senator's delay could have blocked floor time. 11. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | RECENT] After Graham's July 11 death, lawmakers including Rep. Mike Turner framed passing the sanctions bill as part of his legacy, creating symbolic momentum. 12. [sq2 | congress_bills | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Congressional bill-tracking queries returned no records for S.5025 or H.R.2913 status, so official legislative-step confirmation is unavailable. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.71, Volume: $7.4M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.27, Volume: $6.9M - "Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $639.9K - "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $340.2K - "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.96, Volume: $329.9K - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $2.8M Information gaps: - Exact 2026 House legislative calendar / return date after August recess - Base rate: share of Senate-passed bills enacted within ~30 days - Whether Senate passed S.5025 or amended H.R.2913 (affects need for second chamber action) - Any explicit Trump or Johnson statement on signing/scheduling the Senate-passed text Key uncertainties: - Whether Johnson schedules a House vote immediately post-recess - Whether Trump signs promptly or slow-walks/vetoes - Whether House amends text, forcing another Senate vote - Competing floor time from government funding fight and Iran war
Raw forecast prompt
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 become law before September 10, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
ABC News: [Senate overwhelmingly advances Russia sanctions bill named after Sen. Lindsey Graham](https://abcnews.com/Politics/senate-move-russia-sanctions-bill-named-after-sen/story?id=135151693)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "1ad4d0ee0b6a4bdc", "sheet_id": "168"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if either [S.5025](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/5025) or [H.R.2913](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/2913) becomes law before September 10, 2026.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.25) Will the Senate pass S.5025 (or the House-passed vehicle H.R.2913 containing the sanctions text) by final floor vote before July 2026? — Senate cloture/advancement already reported; a completed Senate passage vote is the first hard gate and a strong leading
- (w=0.30) Will the House pass identical text to the Senate bill (or the Senate pass the House bill) so that one chamber-agreed version is presented to the President before September 10, 2026? — House floor scheduling under Speaker leadership and White House deference has historically been the main choke point for
- (w=0.30) Will President Trump publicly support (or decline to oppose/veto) the bill, i.e., sign it rather than block it, before September 10, 2026? — Trump's posture on Russia diplomacy is decisive; leadership has repeatedly conditioned floor action on his blessing, and
- (w=0.15) Will the enactment occur within the compressed calendar window (session days remaining before Sept 10, 2026, including August recess and midterm-year dynamics)? — Even with political will, the legislative calendar (August recess, appropriations crunch, election-year floor time) cons
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 93 | UP | VERY_RECENT] The Senate passed the Graham-championed Russia sanctions bill 86-11 on Friday, August 7, 2026, sending it to the House.
2. [sq1 | article_search | STRONG cred 90 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Senate passage occurred in August 2026, after the 'before July 2026' threshold specified in sq1.
3. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] On July 10, 2026, Graham, Blumenthal, Shaheen and Wicker announced an agreement with the Trump administration to move an updated Russia sanctions package.
4. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Reporting notes prior versions of the measure repeatedly stalled after resistance from the White House over more than a year.
5. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | UP | DATED] In June 2026 the House passed a Ukraine aid bill with Russian oil/banking sanctions 226-195, with 18 Republicans defying Trump and Speaker Johnson.
6. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] Speaker Johnson repeatedly lost control of the House floor in June 2026 to hardliners, once sending members home early after abandoning the agenda.
7. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 40 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] No reporting found of the House scheduling or holding a vote on the Senate-passed sanctions text after August 7, 2026.
8. [sq4 | article_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | RECENT] Congress faced a lengthy August recess and a midterm sprint, with government funding and other high-priority items crowding limited session days.
9. [sq4 | article_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] With Senate passage on Aug 7 and Labor Day on Sept 7, 2026, the House would have only a handful of post-recess session days before Sept 10.
10. [sq1 | article_search | MODERATE cred 85 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] In July 2026 some Democrats objected the bill would hand too much sanctions-waiver power to Trump, and a single senator's delay could have blocked floor time.
11. [sq2 | article_search | MODERATE cred 82 | UP | RECENT] After Graham's July 11 death, lawmakers including Rep. Mike Turner framed passing the sanctions bill as part of his legacy, creating symbolic momentum.
12. [sq2 | congress_bills | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Congressional bill-tracking queries returned no records for S.5025 or H.R.2913 status, so official legislative-step confirmation is unavailable.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.71, Volume: $7.4M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.27, Volume: $6.9M
- "Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $639.9K
- "Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M
- "Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.04, Volume: $340.2K
- "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?" → Yes: 0.96, Volume: $329.9K
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?" → Yes: 0.02, Volume: $2.8M
Information gaps:
- Exact 2026 House legislative calendar / return date after August recess
- Base rate: share of Senate-passed bills enacted within ~30 days
- Whether Senate passed S.5025 or amended H.R.2913 (affects need for second chamber action)
- Any explicit Trump or Johnson statement on signing/scheduling the Senate-passed text
Key uncertainties:
- Whether Johnson schedules a House vote immediately post-recess
- Whether Trump signs promptly or slow-walks/vetoes
- Whether House amends text, forcing another Senate vote
- Competing floor time from government funding fight and Iran war
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}