Check first whether Grok 4.7 is already on the release notes (near-deterministic YES if so); otherwise combine the high probability that xAI keeps shipping, the moderate probability that the exact '4.7' label is used given xAI's erratic naming, and the high probability that any API release gets documented, as a weighted blend anchored on the Monte Carlo base rate.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.4M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.51, Volume: $606.7K - "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $671.5K
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of ~Aug 13-14, 2026, docs.x.ai release notes show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 as latest entries, with no Grok 4.7 entry. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Third-party trackers state xAI has published no model card, pricing, context window, or benchmarks for Grok 4.7, which remains unreleased. 3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6 was officially released on the xAI API around August 12, 2026, and documented on docs.x.ai with model ID and 500k context. 4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting describes xAI's current cadence (4.5 → 4.6 → 4.7 → Grok 5 by end-2026) as its most aggressive release sprint yet. 5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Musk on July 24/28 and Aug 4 explicitly used the label 'Grok 4.7' for a 2.1-trillion-parameter successor to Grok 4.6. 6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On SpaceX's Aug 4 Q2 earnings call Musk said Grok 4.7 would arrive three to four weeks after 4.6, implying roughly Sept 2–9, 2026. 7. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] One outlet reported an August 12 signal that 'narrows Grok 4.7's release window,' without a confirmed date. 8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] xAI's recent naming pattern has followed sequential .1 increments (4, 4.1, 4.5, 4.6) but also included variant labels like 'Fast'. 9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6's docs.x.ai release-notes entry appeared essentially at launch, indicating xAI documents API model launches promptly. 10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo decomposition of ship-rate, label choice, and documentation probability yields mean 0.48 (q10-q90: 0.31-0.65). 11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News coverage of xAI from May–Aug 2026 focused on lawsuits, data centers, and the SpaceX IPO, with no model-release schedule disruptions reported. 12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Musk's original promise of 'Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks, 4.7 in 4 weeks' already slipped, with 4.6 arriving later than the stated 2-week window. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.4M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.51, Volume: $606.7K - "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $671.5K Information gaps: - No base-rate data on historical slippage between Musk-announced Grok versions and actual ship dates - No direct scrape/verification of docs.x.ai release notes at the resolution-relevant date - No evidence on whether xAI plans a 'Grok 4.7' vs jumping to Grok 5 - No market/prediction-platform pricing for this question Key uncertainties: - Whether the ~3-4 week post-4.6 window lands before or after Sept 5 - Whether xAI keeps the '4.7' label or renames (e.g., 4.6 Fast, 5) - Typical Musk timeline slippage magnitude for model launches - Whether an app-only or preview release would appear in API release notes
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will Grok 4.7 appear on SpaceXAI's release notes before September 5, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Elon Musk: [Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks and Grok 4.7 in 4 weeks](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2080724087593226311)
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "0ffd0dfeab8e936f", "sheet_id": "159"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if a version of Grok that is specifically numbered 4.7 has any mention for any reason at SpaceXAI's [Release Notes](https://docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes) before September 5, 2026. If this does not occur for any reason, including that X AI changes its numbering scheme (such as skipping 4.7 or changing it to 4.70), this question resolves as **No**.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.30) Is a model specifically numbered 'Grok 4.7' already listed on xAI's release notes page (docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes) as of the research date? — If it has already shipped, the question resolves YES immediately; this is the single highest-information check.
- (w=0.20) Will xAI ship at least one new Grok model of any name/version between now and September 5, 2026? — Establishes the baseline shipping cadence; xAI ships frequently, so the binding constraint is naming, not activity.
- (w=0.35) Conditional on xAI shipping further 4.x-series updates before Sept 5, 2026, will the specific label '4.7' be used (rather than skipping to 4.8, 5, 'Fast', a codename, or a different scheme)? — The core uncertainty: xAI has a history of irregular version naming (4.1, 4.1 Fast, 4.20-style jokes, jumping to Grok 5)
- (w=0.15) If a Grok 4.7 exists in any form (API, app, announcement), will it be documented on the official docs.x.ai release notes page before Sept 5, 2026? — Resolution requires the specific release-notes page mention; consumer-app-only releases or delayed doc updates could blo
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of ~Aug 13-14, 2026, docs.x.ai release notes show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 as latest entries, with no Grok 4.7 entry.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Third-party trackers state xAI has published no model card, pricing, context window, or benchmarks for Grok 4.7, which remains unreleased.
3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6 was officially released on the xAI API around August 12, 2026, and documented on docs.x.ai with model ID and 500k context.
4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting describes xAI's current cadence (4.5 → 4.6 → 4.7 → Grok 5 by end-2026) as its most aggressive release sprint yet.
5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Musk on July 24/28 and Aug 4 explicitly used the label 'Grok 4.7' for a 2.1-trillion-parameter successor to Grok 4.6.
6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On SpaceX's Aug 4 Q2 earnings call Musk said Grok 4.7 would arrive three to four weeks after 4.6, implying roughly Sept 2–9, 2026.
7. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] One outlet reported an August 12 signal that 'narrows Grok 4.7's release window,' without a confirmed date.
8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] xAI's recent naming pattern has followed sequential .1 increments (4, 4.1, 4.5, 4.6) but also included variant labels like 'Fast'.
9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6's docs.x.ai release-notes entry appeared essentially at launch, indicating xAI documents API model launches promptly.
10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo decomposition of ship-rate, label choice, and documentation probability yields mean 0.48 (q10-q90: 0.31-0.65).
11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News coverage of xAI from May–Aug 2026 focused on lawsuits, data centers, and the SpaceX IPO, with no model-release schedule disruptions reported.
12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Musk's original promise of 'Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks, 4.7 in 4 weeks' already slipped, with 4.6 arriving later than the stated 2-week window.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.4M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.9M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M
- "US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.51, Volume: $606.7K
- "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?" → Yes: 0.62, Volume: $671.5K
Information gaps:
- No base-rate data on historical slippage between Musk-announced Grok versions and actual ship dates
- No direct scrape/verification of docs.x.ai release notes at the resolution-relevant date
- No evidence on whether xAI plans a 'Grok 4.7' vs jumping to Grok 5
- No market/prediction-platform pricing for this question
Key uncertainties:
- Whether the ~3-4 week post-4.6 window lands before or after Sept 5
- Whether xAI keeps the '4.7' label or renames (e.g., 4.6 Fast, 5)
- Typical Musk timeline slippage magnitude for model launches
- Whether an app-only or preview release would appear in API release notes
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq4": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of ~Aug 13-14, 2026, docs.x.ai release notes show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 as latest entries, with no Grok 4.7 entry.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Third-party trackers state xAI has published no model card, pricing, context window, or benchmarks for Grok 4.7, which remains unreleased.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6 was officially released on the xAI API around August 12, 2026, and documented on docs.x.ai with model ID and 500k context.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting describes xAI\u0027s current cadence (4.5 \u2192 4.6 \u2192 4.7 \u2192 Grok 5 by end-2026) as its most aggressive release sprint yet.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Musk on July 24/28 and Aug 4 explicitly used the label \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 for a 2.1-trillion-parameter successor to Grok 4.6.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On SpaceX\u0027s Aug 4 Q2 earnings call Musk said Grok 4.7 would arrive three to four weeks after 4.6, implying roughly Sept 2\u20139, 2026.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] One outlet reported an August 12 signal that \u0027narrows Grok 4.7\u0027s release window,\u0027 without a confirmed date.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] xAI\u0027s recent naming pattern has followed sequential .1 increments (4, 4.1, 4.5, 4.6) but also included variant labels like \u0027Fast\u0027.\n9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6\u0027s docs.x.ai release-notes entry appeared essentially at launch, indicating xAI documents API model launches promptly.\n10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo decomposition of ship-rate, label choice, and documentation probability yields mean 0.48 (q10-q90: 0.31-0.65).\n11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News coverage of xAI from May\u2013Aug 2026 focused on lawsuits, data centers, and the SpaceX IPO, with no model-release schedule disruptions reported.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Musk\u0027s original promise of \u0027Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks, 4.7 in 4 weeks\u0027 already slipped, with 4.6 arriving later than the stated 2-week window.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.4M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.51, Volume: $606.7K\n- \"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $671.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base-rate data on historical slippage between Musk-announced Grok versions and actual ship dates\n - No direct scrape/verification of docs.x.ai release notes at the resolution-relevant date\n - No evidence on whether xAI plans a \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 vs jumping to Grok 5\n - No market/prediction-platform pricing for this question\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the ~3-4 week post-4.6 window lands before or after Sept 5\n - Whether xAI keeps the \u00274.7\u0027 label or renames (e.g., 4.6 Fast, 5)\n - Typical Musk timeline slippage magnitude for model launches\n - Whether an app-only or preview release would appear in API release notes",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill Grok 4.7 appear on SpaceXAI\u0027s release notes before September 5, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nElon Musk: [Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks and Grok 4.7 in 4 weeks](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2080724087593226311)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"0ffd0dfeab8e936f\", \"sheet_id\": \"159\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if a version of Grok that is specifically numbered 4.7 has any mention for any reason at SpaceXAI\u0027s [Release Notes](https://docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes) before September 5, 2026. If this does not occur for any reason, including that X AI changes its numbering scheme (such as skipping 4.7 or changing it to 4.70), this question resolves as **No**.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.30) Is a model specifically numbered \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 already listed on xAI\u0027s release notes page (docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes) as of the research date? \u2014 If it has already shipped, the question resolves YES immediately; this is the single highest-information check.\n- (w=0.20) Will xAI ship at least one new Grok model of any name/version between now and September 5, 2026? \u2014 Establishes the baseline shipping cadence; xAI ships frequently, so the binding constraint is naming, not activity.\n- (w=0.35) Conditional on xAI shipping further 4.x-series updates before Sept 5, 2026, will the specific label \u00274.7\u0027 be used (rather than skipping to 4.8, 5, \u0027Fast\u0027, a codename, or a different scheme)? \u2014 The core uncertainty: xAI has a history of irregular version naming (4.1, 4.1 Fast, 4.20-style jokes, jumping to Grok 5)\n- (w=0.15) If a Grok 4.7 exists in any form (API, app, announcement), will it be documented on the official docs.x.ai release notes page before Sept 5, 2026? \u2014 Resolution requires the specific release-notes page mention; consumer-app-only releases or delayed doc updates could blo\n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] As of ~Aug 13-14, 2026, docs.x.ai release notes show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 as latest entries, with no Grok 4.7 entry.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Third-party trackers state xAI has published no model card, pricing, context window, or benchmarks for Grok 4.7, which remains unreleased.\n3. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6 was officially released on the xAI API around August 12, 2026, and documented on docs.x.ai with model ID and 500k context.\n4. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Reporting describes xAI\u0027s current cadence (4.5 \u2192 4.6 \u2192 4.7 \u2192 Grok 5 by end-2026) as its most aggressive release sprint yet.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] Musk on July 24/28 and Aug 4 explicitly used the label \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 for a 2.1-trillion-parameter successor to Grok 4.6.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] On SpaceX\u0027s Aug 4 Q2 earnings call Musk said Grok 4.7 would arrive three to four weeks after 4.6, implying roughly Sept 2\u20139, 2026.\n7. [sq3 | web_search | WEAK cred 40 | UP | VERY_RECENT] One outlet reported an August 12 signal that \u0027narrows Grok 4.7\u0027s release window,\u0027 without a confirmed date.\n8. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | DATED] xAI\u0027s recent naming pattern has followed sequential .1 increments (4, 4.1, 4.5, 4.6) but also included variant labels like \u0027Fast\u0027.\n9. [sq4 | web_search | MODERATE cred 78 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Grok 4.6\u0027s docs.x.ai release-notes entry appeared essentially at launch, indicating xAI documents API model launches promptly.\n10. [sq2 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo decomposition of ship-rate, label choice, and documentation probability yields mean 0.48 (q10-q90: 0.31-0.65).\n11. [sq2 | article_search | WEAK cred 60 | NEUTRAL | RECENT] News coverage of xAI from May\u2013Aug 2026 focused on lawsuits, data centers, and the SpaceX IPO, with no model-release schedule disruptions reported.\n12. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | RECENT] Musk\u0027s original promise of \u0027Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks, 4.7 in 4 weeks\u0027 already slipped, with 4.6 arriving later than the stated 2-week window.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.4M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.51, Volume: $606.7K\n- \"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $671.5K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No base-rate data on historical slippage between Musk-announced Grok versions and actual ship dates\n - No direct scrape/verification of docs.x.ai release notes at the resolution-relevant date\n - No evidence on whether xAI plans a \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 vs jumping to Grok 5\n - No market/prediction-platform pricing for this question\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether the ~3-4 week post-4.6 window lands before or after Sept 5\n - Whether xAI keeps the \u00274.7\u0027 label or renames (e.g., 4.6 Fast, 5)\n - Typical Musk timeline slippage magnitude for model launches\n - Whether an app-only or preview release would appear in API release notes\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq4\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.27,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.42895,
"rationale": "(a) Roughly three weeks remain: today is ~mid-August 2026 and the deadline is September 5, 2026. (b) Status quo is NO \u2014 docs.x.ai currently lists Grok 4.6 (released ~Aug 12, 2026) and 4.5 as the newest entries, with no 4.7 model card, pricing, or benchmarks anywhere. (c) NO scenario: Musk\u0027s stated \u0027three to four weeks after 4.6\u0027 puts 4.7 at roughly Sept 2\u20139, straddling the deadline, and his model timelines have already slipped once (4.6 arrived later than the promised two weeks); a slip of even one week, or a pivot to a differently-named release (\u00274.6 Fast\u0027, a 4.8, or straight to Grok 5), lands the question on NO. (d) YES scenario: xAI\u0027s compressed sprint holds, the 2.1T-parameter successor ships at the early end of the window (~Sept 1\u20134), and because xAI documents API launches essentially at launch time, a \u0027grok-4-7\u0027 entry appears on the release notes within days. Decomposing: the model is not yet listed (~3%); xAI shipping some new Grok artifact in a three-week window is plausible but not assured (~55%); conditional on a 4.x release landing in-window, the \u00274.7\u0027 label is likely given Musk\u0027s repeated explicit use of it (~72%); and documentation on docs.x.ai given an API release is highly likely (~90%). Multiplying the operative path (ship-in-window ~0.35\u20130.40 \u00d7 label ~0.85 \u00d7 documented ~0.92) gives ~0.28\u20130.31, which is my holistic anchor \u2014 the binding constraint is calendar timing, not naming or documentation.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.03,
"sq2": 0.55,
"sq3": 0.72,
"sq4": 0.9
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "A confirmed xAI announcement or docs.x.ai entry with a \u0027grok-4-7\u0027 model ID, or a credible dated launch commitment before Sept 1, would push me above 70%; conversely, a Musk statement pivoting to Grok 5 / a renamed variant, or any slip announcement pushing 4.7 into mid-September, would push me below 15%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Check first whether Grok 4.7 is already on the release notes (near-deterministic YES if so); otherwise combine the high probability that xAI keeps shipping, the moderate probability that the exact \u00274.7\u0027 label is used given xAI\u0027s erratic naming, and the high probability that any API release gets documented, as a weighted blend anchored on the Monte Carlo base rate.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Is a model specifically numbered \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 already listed on xAI\u0027s release notes page (docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes) as of the research date?",
"rationale": "If it has already shipped, the question resolves YES immediately; this is the single highest-information check.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will xAI ship at least one new Grok model of any name/version between now and September 5, 2026?",
"rationale": "Establishes the baseline shipping cadence; xAI ships frequently, so the binding constraint is naming, not activity.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Conditional on xAI shipping further 4.x-series updates before Sept 5, 2026, will the specific label \u00274.7\u0027 be used (rather than skipping to 4.8, 5, \u0027Fast\u0027, a codename, or a different scheme)?",
"rationale": "The core uncertainty: xAI has a history of irregular version naming (4.1, 4.1 Fast, 4.20-style jokes, jumping to Grok 5), so Musk\u0027s stated \u00274.7\u0027 may never materialize under that exact label.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "If a Grok 4.7 exists in any form (API, app, announcement), will it be documented on the official docs.x.ai release notes page before Sept 5, 2026?",
"rationale": "Resolution requires the specific release-notes page mention; consumer-app-only releases or delayed doc updates could block YES.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"xAI docs release notes Grok 4.7",
"Grok 4.7 release xAI",
"grok 4.6 release notes docs.x.ai"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Determine the current state of xAI\u0027s Grok model releases: what versions are listed on docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes right now (e.g., Grok 4, 4.1, 4.1 Fast, 4.6, 4.7, Grok 5), the dates each was added, whether Grok 4.6 shipped and when, whether Elon Musk\u0027s promised Grok 4.7 has been released or announced, and any evidence xAI is skipping version numbers or moving to Grok 5. Also note historical lag between Musk\u0027s promised timelines and actual xAI releases.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Will Grok 4.7 appear on SpaceXAI\u0027s release notes before September 5, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 90,
"queries": [
"xAI Grok 4.7 release",
"Elon Musk Grok 4.6 Grok 5 timeline",
"xAI new Grok model launch"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base-rate model: probability xAI uses the exact label \u00274.7\u0027 on release notes before 2026-09-05\n# Historical xAI version labels since Grok 1: 1, 1.5, 1.5V, 2, 2 mini, 3, 3 mini, 4, 4 Fast, 4.1, 4.1 Fast, 4.6 ...\n# Estimate: p(ships another 4.x point release in window), p(that label is exactly 4.7), p(documented in release notes)\nnp.random.seed(0)\nN=200000\np_ship_more = np.random.beta(38,2,N) # xAI ships very frequently, ~9 months window\np_label_47 = np.random.beta(6,4,N) # Musk explicitly promised 4.7, but naming often deviates\np_docs = np.random.beta(17,3,N) # API models are generally documented in release notes\np = p_ship_more*p_label_47*p_docs\nprint(\u0027mean\u0027, p.mean(), \u0027median\u0027, np.median(p), \u0027q10/q90\u0027, np.percentile(p,[10,90]))\n# Musk timeline slippage: promised \u00274 weeks\u0027 -\u003e historical slip factor 1.5x-4x, window is ~9 months, so timing rarely binding\nslip = np.random.lognormal(np.log(2.5),0.6,N)\nprint(\u0027frac of promises delivered within 9x promised horizon:\u0027, (slip\u003c9).mean())",
"description": "Monte Carlo decomposition of ship-rate x naming-label x documentation probability, plus Musk timeline slippage factor."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-14T09:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nElon Musk: [Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks and Grok 4.7 in 4 weeks](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2080724087593226311)\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"0ffd0dfeab8e936f\", \"sheet_id\": \"159\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if a version of Grok that is specifically numbered 4.7 has any mention for any reason at SpaceXAI\u0027s [Release Notes](https://docs.x.ai/developers/release-notes) before September 5, 2026. If this does not occur for any reason, including that X AI changes its numbering scheme (such as skipping 4.7 or changing it to 4.70), this question resolves as **No**.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will Grok 4.7 appear on SpaceXAI\u0027s release notes before September 5, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.72, Volume: $7.4M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.4M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n- \"US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.51, Volume: $606.7K\n- \"Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.62, Volume: $671.5K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 25.09,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 23.69,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "10 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.57,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "24 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.39,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo decomposition of ship-rate x naming-label x docu",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "As of ~Aug 13-14, 2026, docs.x.ai release notes show Grok 4.6 and 4.5 as latest entries, with no Grok 4.7 entry.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Third-party trackers state xAI has published no model card, pricing, context window, or benchmarks for Grok 4.7, which remains unreleased.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Grok 4.6 was officially released on the xAI API around August 12, 2026, and documented on docs.x.ai with model ID and 500k context.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Reporting describes xAI\u0027s current cadence (4.5 \u2192 4.6 \u2192 4.7 \u2192 Grok 5 by end-2026) as its most aggressive release sprint yet.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Musk on July 24/28 and Aug 4 explicitly used the label \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 for a 2.1-trillion-parameter successor to Grok 4.6.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "On SpaceX\u0027s Aug 4 Q2 earnings call Musk said Grok 4.7 would arrive three to four weeks after 4.6, implying roughly Sept 2\u20139, 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "One outlet reported an August 12 signal that \u0027narrows Grok 4.7\u0027s release window,\u0027 without a confirmed date.",
"credibility": 40,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "xAI\u0027s recent naming pattern has followed sequential .1 increments (4, 4.1, 4.5, 4.6) but also included variant labels like \u0027Fast\u0027.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Grok 4.6\u0027s docs.x.ai release-notes entry appeared essentially at launch, indicating xAI documents API model launches promptly.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo decomposition of ship-rate, label choice, and documentation probability yields mean 0.48 (q10-q90: 0.31-0.65).",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "News coverage of xAI from May\u2013Aug 2026 focused on lawsuits, data centers, and the SpaceX IPO, with no model-release schedule disruptions reported.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Musk\u0027s original promise of \u0027Grok 4.6 in 2 weeks, 4.7 in 4 weeks\u0027 already slipped, with 4.6 arriving later than the stated 2-week window.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No base-rate data on historical slippage between Musk-announced Grok versions and actual ship dates",
"No direct scrape/verification of docs.x.ai release notes at the resolution-relevant date",
"No evidence on whether xAI plans a \u0027Grok 4.7\u0027 vs jumping to Grok 5",
"No market/prediction-platform pricing for this question"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether the ~3-4 week post-4.6 window lands before or after Sept 5",
"Whether xAI keeps the \u00274.7\u0027 label or renames (e.g., 4.6 Fast, 5)",
"Typical Musk timeline slippage magnitude for model launches",
"Whether an app-only or preview release would appear in API release notes"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 44.54,
"plan": 26.48,
"research": 25.09,
"synthesis": 26.87
}
}