Estimate the climatological base rate that a severe-enough drought summer occurs in Valais and that the resulting canton-wide ban persists specifically to September 2, then blend the sub-question probabilities as a weighted average anchored on historical frequency (roughly 15-25%), adjusting for any early signals about 2026 conditions and for how Valais defines 'general' bans.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M - "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" → Yes: 0.71, Volume: $693.3K
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | DATED] Canton of Valais imposed a general ban on outdoor fires effective Thursday, June 25, 2026, due to very high fire risk. 2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] By July 2026 the Federal Office for the Environment raised forest fire risk in parts of Valais to warning level 4 of 5. 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] By late July/August 2026 forest fire risk was reported at its highest level in Geneva and much of Valais. 4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] A commune update stated the 2026 canton-wide general fire ban was 'maintained' after its June 25 imposition. 5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] In 2025 Valais imposed a general fire ban on August 19 and lifted it on September 17, i.e. it was in force on September 2. 6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] In 2023 Valais lifted its general open-fire ban on August 8 after ten days of rain and cooler temperatures, before September. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Valais lifts general bans quickly once storm fronts deliver ~30mm rain and temperatures return to seasonal norms, converting to localized bans. 8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] The 2026 ban has been in force since June 25, an unusually long duration (>2 months) compared with 2023 and 2025 bans. 9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] When Valais downgrades, it typically retains localized bans in the Rhône plain and Upper Valais rather than a canton-wide general ban. 10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Valais general bans include narrow exceptions permitting use of fixed fire pits, which the question counts as still a general ban. 11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A base-rate Monte Carlo model (no 2026-specific data) estimated ~14.5% probability of a canton-wide ban in force on September 2 in a typical year. 12. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Historical European drought/heat summers (2018, 2022) recurred frequently, with climate change increasing intensity and spatial extent of such droughts. ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M - "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" → Yes: 0.71, Volume: $693.3K Information gaps: - No direct check of vs.ch/SFNP portal status in mid/late August 2026 - No August 2026 precipitation data or September 2026 weather forecast for Rhône valley - Unclear whether the June 25, 2026 ban was ever partially lifted during July - Missing multi-year base rate (2015-2024) of ban status specifically on Sept 2 Key uncertainties: - Whether late-August 2026 storm fronts deliver enough rain to trigger lifting - Whether cantonal authorities downgrade to localized bans before Sept 2 - Reliability of the second-hand 2026 reporting on ban imposition/maintenance - How quickly Valais reacts to falling danger levels (2023 lifted fast, 2025 slowly)
You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates — your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.
## Question
Will the Swiss Canton of Valais have a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2, 2026?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
Vercorin: [General ban on lighting fires](https://www.vercorin.ch/en/A4112/general-ban-on-lighting-fires) "Stricter rules have been introduced across the whole canton to prevent the risk of fire.
Despite the rainfall over the last few days, the fire risk situation remains extremely critical in Valais due to repeated heatwaves and the accumulated rainfall deficit since the start of the year. This is confirmed by the rising number of call-outs to tackle fires. The Canton of Valais therefore reminds the public of the general ban on lighting fires and urges them to remain vigilant in the face of this danger.
The general ban also applies to all ‘fireworks’ devices, regardless of their category or size. Even ‘volcano’-type devices are not permitted during the 1 August celebrations.
Given the current situation, the Canton of Valais wishes to emphasise that conditions will remain critical until there has been continuous rainfall over several days."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "fd788f8bd3029a54", "sheet_id": "166"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as **Yes** if Valais has a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2, 2026 according to its [Forestry, Nature and Landscape Service](https://www.vs.ch/web/sfnp) portal or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
## Fine Print
"General" for purposes of this question means applying to the entire territory of the Canton.
In case of narrow exceptions being introduced such as permitting barbecues, a general ban is considered to still be in force.
## Sub-question decomposition
- (w=0.40) Will summer 2026 in Valais (Rhône valley / Alpine Switzerland) be marked by significant drought or heatwave conditions comparable to 2018/2022/2025, i.e. conditions severe enough to trigger a cantonal-level fire ban at some point in the season? — A ban on Sept 2 requires the underlying meteorological driver: prolonged rainfall deficit plus heat. Base rate of such s
- (w=0.35) Conditional on a cantonal general fire ban being declared during summer 2026, will it still be in force on September 2 rather than lifted/downgraded after early-autumn rainfall? — Valais bans are typically lifted within days of sustained rain; early September often brings precipitation, so persisten
- (w=0.25) Is the ban, if in force, a truly canton-wide 'general' ban (covering the entire territory, possibly with narrow exceptions like fixed barbecue sites) rather than a partial/altitude- or district-limited restriction or a mere 'caution' warning level? — Valais frequently issues graduated danger levels and localized restrictions (e.g. forest-only bans, bans within 200m of
Combination rule: **weighted_average**
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | DATED] Canton of Valais imposed a general ban on outdoor fires effective Thursday, June 25, 2026, due to very high fire risk.
2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] By July 2026 the Federal Office for the Environment raised forest fire risk in parts of Valais to warning level 4 of 5.
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] By late July/August 2026 forest fire risk was reported at its highest level in Geneva and much of Valais.
4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] A commune update stated the 2026 canton-wide general fire ban was 'maintained' after its June 25 imposition.
5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] In 2025 Valais imposed a general fire ban on August 19 and lifted it on September 17, i.e. it was in force on September 2.
6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] In 2023 Valais lifted its general open-fire ban on August 8 after ten days of rain and cooler temperatures, before September.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Valais lifts general bans quickly once storm fronts deliver ~30mm rain and temperatures return to seasonal norms, converting to localized bans.
8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] The 2026 ban has been in force since June 25, an unusually long duration (>2 months) compared with 2023 and 2025 bans.
9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] When Valais downgrades, it typically retains localized bans in the Rhône plain and Upper Valais rather than a canton-wide general ban.
10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Valais general bans include narrow exceptions permitting use of fixed fire pits, which the question counts as still a general ban.
11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A base-rate Monte Carlo model (no 2026-specific data) estimated ~14.5% probability of a canton-wide ban in force on September 2 in a typical year.
12. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Historical European drought/heat summers (2018, 2022) recurred frequently, with climate change increasing intensity and spatial extent of such droughts.
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M
- "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" → Yes: 0.71, Volume: $693.3K
Information gaps:
- No direct check of vs.ch/SFNP portal status in mid/late August 2026
- No August 2026 precipitation data or September 2026 weather forecast for Rhône valley
- Unclear whether the June 25, 2026 ban was ever partially lifted during July
- Missing multi-year base rate (2015-2024) of ban status specifically on Sept 2
Key uncertainties:
- Whether late-August 2026 storm fronts deliver enough rain to trigger lifting
- Whether cantonal authorities downgrade to localized bans before Sept 2
- Reliability of the second-hand 2026 reporting on ban imposition/maintenance
- How quickly Valais reacts to falling danger levels (2023 lifted fast, 2025 slowly)
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The status quo outcome — what happens if nothing changes from today.
(c) A brief scenario that results in NO.
(d) A brief scenario that results in YES.
## Calibration guidance
- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition — independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.
- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.
- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid >0.97 or <0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological — overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.
- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question — move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.
- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or "very recent" claim — especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility — must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.
- **Also provide a holistic estimate** — your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) (b) (c) (d) above — 5-8 sentences total>",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq2": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>,
"sq3": <float in [0.01, 0.99]>
},
"holistic_p_yes": <float in [0.01, 0.99] — your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition>,
"what_would_change_my_mind": "<1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%>"
}
{
"forecast": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | DATED] Canton of Valais imposed a general ban on outdoor fires effective Thursday, June 25, 2026, due to very high fire risk.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] By July 2026 the Federal Office for the Environment raised forest fire risk in parts of Valais to warning level 4 of 5.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] By late July/August 2026 forest fire risk was reported at its highest level in Geneva and much of Valais.\n4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] A commune update stated the 2026 canton-wide general fire ban was \u0027maintained\u0027 after its June 25 imposition.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] In 2025 Valais imposed a general fire ban on August 19 and lifted it on September 17, i.e. it was in force on September 2.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] In 2023 Valais lifted its general open-fire ban on August 8 after ten days of rain and cooler temperatures, before September.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Valais lifts general bans quickly once storm fronts deliver ~30mm rain and temperatures return to seasonal norms, converting to localized bans.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] The 2026 ban has been in force since June 25, an unusually long duration (\u003e2 months) compared with 2023 and 2025 bans.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] When Valais downgrades, it typically retains localized bans in the Rh\u00f4ne plain and Upper Valais rather than a canton-wide general ban.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Valais general bans include narrow exceptions permitting use of fixed fire pits, which the question counts as still a general ban.\n11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A base-rate Monte Carlo model (no 2026-specific data) estimated ~14.5% probability of a canton-wide ban in force on September 2 in a typical year.\n12. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Historical European drought/heat summers (2018, 2022) recurred frequently, with climate change increasing intensity and spatial extent of such droughts.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.71, Volume: $693.3K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct check of vs.ch/SFNP portal status in mid/late August 2026\n - No August 2026 precipitation data or September 2026 weather forecast for Rh\u00f4ne valley\n - Unclear whether the June 25, 2026 ban was ever partially lifted during July\n - Missing multi-year base rate (2015-2024) of ban status specifically on Sept 2\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether late-August 2026 storm fronts deliver enough rain to trigger lifting\n - Whether cantonal authorities downgrade to localized bans before Sept 2\n - Reliability of the second-hand 2026 reporting on ban imposition/maintenance\n - How quickly Valais reacts to falling danger levels (2023 lifted fast, 2025 slowly)",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster using Tetlock-style Fermi decomposition. Estimate each sub-question INDEPENDENTLY, then provide a holistic estimate. The pipeline will mathematically recombine the sub-question estimates \u2014 your job is to give the most accurate per-component probabilities.\n\n## Question\nWill the Swiss Canton of Valais have a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2, 2026?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nVercorin: [General ban on lighting fires](https://www.vercorin.ch/en/A4112/general-ban-on-lighting-fires) \"Stricter rules have been introduced across the whole canton to prevent the risk of fire.\n\nDespite the rainfall over the last few days, the fire risk situation remains extremely critical in Valais due to repeated heatwaves and the accumulated rainfall deficit since the start of the year. This is confirmed by the rising number of call-outs to tackle fires. The Canton of Valais therefore reminds the public of the general ban on lighting fires and urges them to remain vigilant in the face of this danger.\n\nThe general ban also applies to all \u2018fireworks\u2019 devices, regardless of their category or size. Even \u2018volcano\u2019-type devices are not permitted during the 1 August celebrations.\n\nGiven the current situation, the Canton of Valais wishes to emphasise that conditions will remain critical until there has been continuous rainfall over several days.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"fd788f8bd3029a54\", \"sheet_id\": \"166\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if Valais has a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2, 2026 according to its [Forestry, Nature and Landscape Service](https://www.vs.ch/web/sfnp) portal or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n## Fine Print\n\"General\" for purposes of this question means applying to the entire territory of the Canton. \n\nIn case of narrow exceptions being introduced such as permitting barbecues, a general ban is considered to still be in force.\n\n## Sub-question decomposition\n- (w=0.40) Will summer 2026 in Valais (Rh\u00f4ne valley / Alpine Switzerland) be marked by significant drought or heatwave conditions comparable to 2018/2022/2025, i.e. conditions severe enough to trigger a cantonal-level fire ban at some point in the season? \u2014 A ban on Sept 2 requires the underlying meteorological driver: prolonged rainfall deficit plus heat. Base rate of such s\n- (w=0.35) Conditional on a cantonal general fire ban being declared during summer 2026, will it still be in force on September 2 rather than lifted/downgraded after early-autumn rainfall? \u2014 Valais bans are typically lifted within days of sustained rain; early September often brings precipitation, so persisten\n- (w=0.25) Is the ban, if in force, a truly canton-wide \u0027general\u0027 ban (covering the entire territory, possibly with narrow exceptions like fixed barbecue sites) rather than a partial/altitude- or district-limited restriction or a mere \u0027caution\u0027 warning level? \u2014 Valais frequently issues graduated danger levels and localized restrictions (e.g. forest-only bans, bans within 200m of \n\nCombination rule: **weighted_average**\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 78 | UP | DATED] Canton of Valais imposed a general ban on outdoor fires effective Thursday, June 25, 2026, due to very high fire risk.\n2. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 75 | UP | RECENT] By July 2026 the Federal Office for the Environment raised forest fire risk in parts of Valais to warning level 4 of 5.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 72 | UP | VERY_RECENT] By late July/August 2026 forest fire risk was reported at its highest level in Geneva and much of Valais.\n4. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | UP | RECENT] A commune update stated the 2026 canton-wide general fire ban was \u0027maintained\u0027 after its June 25 imposition.\n5. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | DATED] In 2025 Valais imposed a general fire ban on August 19 and lifted it on September 17, i.e. it was in force on September 2.\n6. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 85 | DOWN | DATED] In 2023 Valais lifted its general open-fire ban on August 8 after ten days of rain and cooler temperatures, before September.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] Valais lifts general bans quickly once storm fronts deliver ~30mm rain and temperatures return to seasonal norms, converting to localized bans.\n8. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | UP | RECENT] The 2026 ban has been in force since June 25, an unusually long duration (\u003e2 months) compared with 2023 and 2025 bans.\n9. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 82 | DOWN | DATED] When Valais downgrades, it typically retains localized bans in the Rh\u00f4ne plain and Upper Valais rather than a canton-wide general ban.\n10. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 80 | UP | DATED] Valais general bans include narrow exceptions permitting use of fixed fire pits, which the question counts as still a general ban.\n11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 35 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] A base-rate Monte Carlo model (no 2026-specific data) estimated ~14.5% probability of a canton-wide ban in force on September 2 in a typical year.\n12. [sq1 | wikipedia_lookup | WEAK cred 70 | UP | DATED] Historical European drought/heat summers (2018, 2022) recurred frequently, with climate change increasing intensity and spatial extent of such droughts.\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.71, Volume: $693.3K\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct check of vs.ch/SFNP portal status in mid/late August 2026\n - No August 2026 precipitation data or September 2026 weather forecast for Rh\u00f4ne valley\n - Unclear whether the June 25, 2026 ban was ever partially lifted during July\n - Missing multi-year base rate (2015-2024) of ban status specifically on Sept 2\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether late-August 2026 storm fronts deliver enough rain to trigger lifting\n - Whether cantonal authorities downgrade to localized bans before Sept 2\n - Reliability of the second-hand 2026 reporting on ban imposition/maintenance\n - How quickly Valais reacts to falling danger levels (2023 lifted fast, 2025 slowly)\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving probabilities, walk through these explicitly:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The status quo outcome \u2014 what happens if nothing changes from today.\n (c) A brief scenario that results in NO.\n (d) A brief scenario that results in YES.\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Estimate each sub-question in isolation.** Do not let your answer to one sub-question anchor your answer to another. This is the core of Fermi decomposition \u2014 independence forces more careful reasoning per factor.\n- **Anchor on the status quo.** Require strong specific evidence to move far from it.\n- 0.05 / 0.95 require strong, multi-source evidence. Avoid \u003e0.97 or \u003c0.03 unless the outcome is already settled or near-tautological \u2014 overconfident misses are punished heavily by the log score.\n- **Anchor on prediction markets.** If liquid market prices (Polymarket / Kalshi) or a community forecast appear in the evidence, treat them as a strong, well-calibrated prior. Your final estimate should rarely sit more than ~15 percentage points from a liquid market on the SAME question \u2014 move further only with specific evidence the market lacks.\n- **Treat research as fallible, not ground truth.** A single-source or \"very recent\" claim \u2014 especially one the evidence flags as unverified, possibly AI-generated, or low-credibility \u2014 must not drive you to near-certainty. When a load-bearing fact is unverified, keep at least 10-15% on the chance it is wrong.\n- **Also provide a holistic estimate** \u2014 your overall gut feeling about the main question, BEFORE you see the mathematical combination. This serves as a sanity check: if the Fermi result and holistic estimate diverge wildly, something is wrong.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) (b) (c) (d) above \u2014 5-8 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"sub_question_estimates\": {\n \"sq1\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq2\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e,\n \"sq3\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99]\u003e\n },\n \"holistic_p_yes\": \u003cfloat in [0.01, 0.99] \u2014 your overall estimate ignoring the decomposition\u003e,\n \"what_would_change_my_mind\": \"\u003c1-2 sentences: what new info would push you above 70% or below 30%\u003e\"\n}\n",
"holistic_p_yes": 0.68,
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p_yes": 0.7631,
"rationale": "(a) The resolution date is September 2, 2026; evidence runs through late July/August 2026, so only a few weeks of weather uncertainty remain. (b) Status quo: Valais imposed a canton-wide general fire ban on June 25, 2026, it was reported \u0027maintained\u0027, and fire danger was still at the highest level in late July/August \u2014 if nothing changes, the ban is still in force on September 2 and the question resolves Yes. (c) NO scenario: a late-August Atlantic storm front delivers 30+ mm of sustained rain with a return to seasonal temperatures, prompting the canton to lift the general ban and replace it with localized restrictions (Rh\u00f4ne plain / Upper Valais only), exactly as happened in August 2023; alternatively the second-hand 2026 reporting is inaccurate or the ban was already downgraded in July. (d) YES scenario: the accumulated rainfall deficit persists, September starts warm and dry (as in 2025, when the ban ran from Aug 19 to Sep 17), and authorities keep the canton-wide ban with only narrow barbecue/fixed-fire-pit exceptions, which still count. Historical mixed: 2023 lifted early August, 2025 in force on Sept 2; the key asymmetry is that a very long-standing 2026 deficit takes multiple days of rain to erase, and cantons are cautious about lifting prematurely. Main risk is the reliability of the unverified 2026 reports and the well-documented tendency to convert to localized bans once rain arrives.",
"sub_question_estimates": {
"sq1": 0.93,
"sq2": 0.65,
"sq3": 0.8
},
"what_would_change_my_mind": "A direct check of the vs.ch/SFNP portal in late August 2026 showing the general ban still listed (\u003e85%) or showing it lifted/downgraded to localized bans (\u003c20%); likewise, MeteoSwiss data showing a multi-day, canton-wide rain event in late August would push me well below 30%."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "climate",
"n_sub_qs": 3,
"n_tools": 4,
"reasoning_approach": "Estimate the climatological base rate that a severe-enough drought summer occurs in Valais and that the resulting canton-wide ban persists specifically to September 2, then blend the sub-question probabilities as a weighted average anchored on historical frequency (roughly 15-25%), adjusting for any early signals about 2026 conditions and for how Valais defines \u0027general\u0027 bans.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will summer 2026 in Valais (Rh\u00f4ne valley / Alpine Switzerland) be marked by significant drought or heatwave conditions comparable to 2018/2022/2025, i.e. conditions severe enough to trigger a cantonal-level fire ban at some point in the season?",
"rationale": "A ban on Sept 2 requires the underlying meteorological driver: prolonged rainfall deficit plus heat. Base rate of such summers in Valais is roughly 1-in-2 to 1-in-3 in recent years.",
"weight": 0.4
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Conditional on a cantonal general fire ban being declared during summer 2026, will it still be in force on September 2 rather than lifted/downgraded after early-autumn rainfall?",
"rationale": "Valais bans are typically lifted within days of sustained rain; early September often brings precipitation, so persistence to Sept 2 is the key timing gate. Historical episodes (2018 ban lasted into autumn; 2022 and 2025 bans were lifted in late August/September) inform this.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Is the ban, if in force, a truly canton-wide \u0027general\u0027 ban (covering the entire territory, possibly with narrow exceptions like fixed barbecue sites) rather than a partial/altitude- or district-limited restriction or a mere \u0027caution\u0027 warning level?",
"rationale": "Valais frequently issues graduated danger levels and localized restrictions (e.g. forest-only bans, bans within 200m of forest); only a canton-wide general ban resolves YES.",
"weight": 0.25
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the history and current status of general open-fire bans (interdiction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de faire du feu) in the Swiss Canton of Valais: when bans were declared and lifted in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025; whether the 2025 ban was still in force in early September 2025; typical trigger and lifting criteria used by the Service des for\u00eats, de la nature et du paysage (SFNP); and current danger-level information on vs.ch and waldbrandgefahr.ch.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "Will the Swiss Canton of Valais have a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2, 2026?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"Valais interdiction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de faire du feu lev\u00e9e 2025",
"canton Valais fire ban lifted September date history",
"Waldbrandgefahr Wallis Feuerverbot aufgehoben"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"2018 European drought",
"2022 European drought",
"Droughts in Switzerland",
"Valais climate"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1"
],
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\n# Base-rate estimate: years 2015-2025, indicator whether a canton-wide general fire ban was in force in Valais on ~Sept 2\n# Coding from known drought summers (2015,2018,2022,2025 severe; 2017,2019,2023 moderate; 2016,2020,2021,2024 wet-ish)\nsevere = {2015:1,2016:0,2017:1,2018:1,2019:0,2020:0,2021:0,2022:1,2023:0,2024:0,2025:1}\np_ban_season = np.mean(list(severe.values()))\n# Conditional persistence to Sept 2 given a ban declared in summer (rain often lifts bans late Aug)\nfor p_persist in [0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6]:\n print(p_persist, round(p_ban_season*p_persist,3))\nprint(\u0027p_ban_season\u0027, p_ban_season)\n# Monte Carlo with uncertainty\nrng=np.random.default_rng(0)\nps=rng.beta(4,7,20000) # season ban prob ~0.36\npp=rng.beta(4,6,20000) # persistence ~0.4\nprint(\u0027MC mean\u0027, float(np.mean(ps*pp)), \u0027p10/p90\u0027, np.percentile(ps*pp,[10,90]))",
"description": "Base-rate and Monte Carlo estimate of probability a canton-wide Valais fire ban is in force on September 2 of a given year"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-14T03:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nVercorin: [General ban on lighting fires](https://www.vercorin.ch/en/A4112/general-ban-on-lighting-fires) \"Stricter rules have been introduced across the whole canton to prevent the risk of fire.\n\nDespite the rainfall over the last few days, the fire risk situation remains extremely critical in Valais due to repeated heatwaves and the accumulated rainfall deficit since the start of the year. This is confirmed by the rising number of call-outs to tackle fires. The Canton of Valais therefore reminds the public of the general ban on lighting fires and urges them to remain vigilant in the face of this danger.\n\nThe general ban also applies to all \u2018fireworks\u2019 devices, regardless of their category or size. Even \u2018volcano\u2019-type devices are not permitted during the 1 August celebrations.\n\nGiven the current situation, the Canton of Valais wishes to emphasise that conditions will remain critical until there has been continuous rainfall over several days.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"fd788f8bd3029a54\", \"sheet_id\": \"166\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if Valais has a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2, 2026 according to its [Forestry, Nature and Landscape Service](https://www.vs.ch/web/sfnp) portal or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\n## Fine Print\n\"General\" for purposes of this question means applying to the entire territory of the Canton. \n\nIn case of narrow exceptions being introduced such as permitting barbecues, a general ban is considered to still be in force.",
"question_type": "binary",
"title": "Will the Swiss Canton of Valais have a general ban on open fires in effect on September 2, 2026?"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.5M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.71, Volume: $693.3K",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 4,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 30.93,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "12 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 34.61,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 1.31,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 pages",
"tool_name": "wikipedia_lookup"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.27,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Base-rate and Monte Carlo estimate of probability a canton-w",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "Canton of Valais imposed a general ban on outdoor fires effective Thursday, June 25, 2026, due to very high fire risk.",
"credibility": 78,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "By July 2026 the Federal Office for the Environment raised forest fire risk in parts of Valais to warning level 4 of 5.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "By late July/August 2026 forest fire risk was reported at its highest level in Geneva and much of Valais.",
"credibility": 72,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "A commune update stated the 2026 canton-wide general fire ban was \u0027maintained\u0027 after its June 25 imposition.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "In 2025 Valais imposed a general fire ban on August 19 and lifted it on September 17, i.e. it was in force on September 2.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "In 2023 Valais lifted its general open-fire ban on August 8 after ten days of rain and cooler temperatures, before September.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Valais lifts general bans quickly once storm fronts deliver ~30mm rain and temperatures return to seasonal norms, converting to localized bans.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "The 2026 ban has been in force since June 25, an unusually long duration (\u003e2 months) compared with 2023 and 2025 bans.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "When Valais downgrades, it typically retains localized bans in the Rh\u00f4ne plain and Upper Valais rather than a canton-wide general ban.",
"credibility": 82,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Valais general bans include narrow exceptions permitting use of fixed fire pits, which the question counts as still a general ban.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "A base-rate Monte Carlo model (no 2026-specific data) estimated ~14.5% probability of a canton-wide ban in force on September 2 in a typical year.",
"credibility": 35,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Historical European drought/heat summers (2018, 2022) recurred frequently, with climate change increasing intensity and spatial extent of such droughts.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "wikipedia_lookup",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct check of vs.ch/SFNP portal status in mid/late August 2026",
"No August 2026 precipitation data or September 2026 weather forecast for Rh\u00f4ne valley",
"Unclear whether the June 25, 2026 ban was ever partially lifted during July",
"Missing multi-year base rate (2015-2024) of ban status specifically on Sept 2"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether late-August 2026 storm fronts deliver enough rain to trigger lifting",
"Whether cantonal authorities downgrade to localized bans before Sept 2",
"Reliability of the second-hand 2026 reporting on ban imposition/maintenance",
"How quickly Valais reacts to falling danger levels (2023 lifted fast, 2025 slowly)"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 54.23,
"plan": 26.3,
"research": 34.61,
"synthesis": 22.62
}
}