Establish the mid-2026 anchor (~150k YTD, ~974/day) and extrapolate to Sept 2 with a Monte Carlo over pace and mega-event shocks; the sub-question probabilities weight whether the pace holds, whether a mega-layoff inflates the tail, and whether the displayed metric is YTD, blending into a median near ~230-250k with a right-skewed distribution.
## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.4M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp.io displayed (mid-August 2026) 533 layoffs in 2026 with 175,465 people impacted, a rate of 780 people per day. 2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp went from ~150k (mid-June) to ~157k (late June) to ~175.5k (mid-August), implying roughly 400-450 people/day over that stretch. 3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Straight-line extrapolation from 175,465 on ~Aug 13 at 400-780/day yields roughly 183,000-191,000 by September 2, 2026. 4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp's tracker text reads 'So far in 2026, there have been 533 layoffs... 175,465 people impacted', with 2025 shown separately as a comparison. 5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] SkillSyncer and LayoffHedge both identify Oracle's 30,000-position cut as the largest single 2026 tech layoff, an event reported before mid-June 2026. 6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Layoffs.fyi reported the first week of August 2026 cuts came from Zillow, TikTok, Etsy and Google, totaling hundreds rather than thousands of jobs. 7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Analysis of Layoffs.fyi data projects the 2026 full-year tech total will land near 210,000 by December 31 on current pace. 8. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US unemployment was 4.1% in July 2026 (down 0.2pp YoY) and initial claims were 209,000 in August 2026, near historic lows. 9. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Information-sector employment (USINFO) stood at 2,780k in July 2026, down 80k year-over-year. 10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Trackers diverge sharply for mid-August 2026: Layoffs.fyi 125,759, LayoffHedge 168,755, TrueUp 175,465, SkillSyncer 205,832. 11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation anchored on the stale mid-June 150k/974-per-day figures produced a median of ~250,000 by September 2, with mega-event shocks. 12. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The largest 2026 tech layoff announcements in news coverage clustered in April-May (Meta ~8,000, Microsoft buyouts ~7%, Intuit 3,000, Cisco thousands). ## Cross-Market Signals ### Polymarket - "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M - "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.4M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M - "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M Information gaps: - No direct TrueUp reading for late August / September 2, 2026 - No itemized list of tech layoff events announced June 15 - Sept 2, 2026 - Unclear whether TrueUp retroactively revises YTD counts upward - No base rate for August-September seasonality in tech layoff announcements Key uncertainties: - Whether a surprise 10,000+ mega-layoff lands before Sept 2 - Reason for apparent TrueUp pace deceleration (real vs. reporting lag) - Which figure Metaculus reads if TrueUp changes its headline display - Possible late-August earnings-season restructuring announcements
You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.
## Question
As of September 2, 2026, how many people will be impacted by tech layoffs according to TrueUp?
## Description / Resolution Criteria
## Description
TechCrunch: [The AI layoff wave is becoming a powder keg](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/15/the-ai-layoff-wave-is-becoming-a-powder-keg/) "Something strange is happening in tech right now. Companies are posting record profits and revenue while laying off tens of thousands of people, citing AI as the official explanation. So far this year, there have been an estimated 363 layoffs at tech companies this year, affecting nearly 150,000 people — a pace of about 974 people per day, 44% faster than last year — according to TrueUp, a tech job board and recruiting platform that also runs one of the most widely cited tech layoff trackers.
"The trend appears to be accelerating. Tech layoffs hit their highest single month in two years last month, with nearly 40,000 cuts, and AI was the most-cited reason for layoffs across every industry for the third month running, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas."
`{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "fc67491598487174", "sheet_id": "164"}}`
## Resolution Criteria
This question resolves as the number of people impacted by layoffs across tech companies according to TrueUp's [Tech Layoffs Tracker](https://www.trueup.io/layoffs), as displayed when the tracker is accessed by Metaculus on or after September 2, 2026.
## Range
The answer must be a number in [175000, 225000] (units: people).
## Sub-question decomposition (planner)
- (w=0.35) Will TrueUp's tracker, as accessed on/after September 2, 2026, display a 2026 year-to-date impacted-people figure of at least 230,000? — Anchors the central estimate: ~150k by mid-June 2026 at ~974/day implies ~230-240k by Sept 2 if the pace merely holds.
- (w=0.30) Will the layoff pace from mid-June 2026 through September 2, 2026 be at least as fast as the ~974 people/day pace recorded in the first half of 2026? — The dominant driver of the extrapolation; summer months are historically slower, but the AI-driven wave was accelerating
- (w=0.20) Will at least one single tech layoff event affecting 10,000+ employees be announced between June 15, 2026 and September 2, 2026? — Mega-events (Amazon/Intel/Microsoft-scale) create fat right tail and can add 20-50k in a single month.
- (w=0.15) Will the headline figure Metaculus reads off TrueUp be the current-year (2026 YTD) count rather than an all-time or trailing-12-month cumulative figure? — Resolution ambiguity: TrueUp displays multiple aggregates; the wrong reading would put the answer near 1M+ instead of ~2
## Synthesized evidence
1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp.io displayed (mid-August 2026) 533 layoffs in 2026 with 175,465 people impacted, a rate of 780 people per day.
2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp went from ~150k (mid-June) to ~157k (late June) to ~175.5k (mid-August), implying roughly 400-450 people/day over that stretch.
3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Straight-line extrapolation from 175,465 on ~Aug 13 at 400-780/day yields roughly 183,000-191,000 by September 2, 2026.
4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp's tracker text reads 'So far in 2026, there have been 533 layoffs... 175,465 people impacted', with 2025 shown separately as a comparison.
5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] SkillSyncer and LayoffHedge both identify Oracle's 30,000-position cut as the largest single 2026 tech layoff, an event reported before mid-June 2026.
6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Layoffs.fyi reported the first week of August 2026 cuts came from Zillow, TikTok, Etsy and Google, totaling hundreds rather than thousands of jobs.
7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Analysis of Layoffs.fyi data projects the 2026 full-year tech total will land near 210,000 by December 31 on current pace.
8. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US unemployment was 4.1% in July 2026 (down 0.2pp YoY) and initial claims were 209,000 in August 2026, near historic lows.
9. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Information-sector employment (USINFO) stood at 2,780k in July 2026, down 80k year-over-year.
10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Trackers diverge sharply for mid-August 2026: Layoffs.fyi 125,759, LayoffHedge 168,755, TrueUp 175,465, SkillSyncer 205,832.
11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation anchored on the stale mid-June 150k/974-per-day figures produced a median of ~250,000 by September 2, with mega-event shocks.
12. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The largest 2026 tech layoff announcements in news coverage clustered in April-May (Meta ~8,000, Microsoft buyouts ~7%, Intuit 3,000, Cisco thousands).
## Cross-Market Signals
### Polymarket
- "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M
- "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.4M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M
- "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?" → Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M
Information gaps:
- No direct TrueUp reading for late August / September 2, 2026
- No itemized list of tech layoff events announced June 15 - Sept 2, 2026
- Unclear whether TrueUp retroactively revises YTD counts upward
- No base rate for August-September seasonality in tech layoff announcements
Key uncertainties:
- Whether a surprise 10,000+ mega-layoff lands before Sept 2
- Reason for apparent TrueUp pace deceleration (real vs. reporting lag)
- Which figure Metaculus reads if TrueUp changes its headline display
- Possible late-August earnings-season restructuring announcements
## Required pre-forecast walkthrough
Before giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:
(a) The time left until the question resolves.
(b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).
(c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.
(d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.
(e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).
(f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).
## Calibration guidance
- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.
- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.
- Don't pile mass at one value — if you're tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.
- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen — don't override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.
- **Relative-return / spread questions ("how much will X's return exceed Y's").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500) do stay within roughly ±2-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches ±10pp or more — crude-vs-equity spreads have hit ±18pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least ±10pp (±15pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.
- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by ±40% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.
## Output
Return ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:
{
"rationale": "<address (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution — 6-10 sentences total>",
"p10": <number>,
"p25": <number>,
"p50": <number>,
"p75": <number>,
"p90": <number>
}
Percentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 <= p25 <= p50 <= p75 <= p90).
{
"forecast": {
"evidence_brief": "1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp.io displayed (mid-August 2026) 533 layoffs in 2026 with 175,465 people impacted, a rate of 780 people per day.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp went from ~150k (mid-June) to ~157k (late June) to ~175.5k (mid-August), implying roughly 400-450 people/day over that stretch.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Straight-line extrapolation from 175,465 on ~Aug 13 at 400-780/day yields roughly 183,000-191,000 by September 2, 2026.\n4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp\u0027s tracker text reads \u0027So far in 2026, there have been 533 layoffs... 175,465 people impacted\u0027, with 2025 shown separately as a comparison.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] SkillSyncer and LayoffHedge both identify Oracle\u0027s 30,000-position cut as the largest single 2026 tech layoff, an event reported before mid-June 2026.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Layoffs.fyi reported the first week of August 2026 cuts came from Zillow, TikTok, Etsy and Google, totaling hundreds rather than thousands of jobs.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Analysis of Layoffs.fyi data projects the 2026 full-year tech total will land near 210,000 by December 31 on current pace.\n8. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US unemployment was 4.1% in July 2026 (down 0.2pp YoY) and initial claims were 209,000 in August 2026, near historic lows.\n9. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Information-sector employment (USINFO) stood at 2,780k in July 2026, down 80k year-over-year.\n10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Trackers diverge sharply for mid-August 2026: Layoffs.fyi 125,759, LayoffHedge 168,755, TrueUp 175,465, SkillSyncer 205,832.\n11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation anchored on the stale mid-June 150k/974-per-day figures produced a median of ~250,000 by September 2, with mega-event shocks.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The largest 2026 tech layoff announcements in news coverage clustered in April-May (Meta ~8,000, Microsoft buyouts ~7%, Intuit 3,000, Cisco thousands).\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.4M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct TrueUp reading for late August / September 2, 2026\n - No itemized list of tech layoff events announced June 15 - Sept 2, 2026\n - Unclear whether TrueUp retroactively revises YTD counts upward\n - No base rate for August-September seasonality in tech layoff announcements\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether a surprise 10,000+ mega-layoff lands before Sept 2\n - Reason for apparent TrueUp pace deceleration (real vs. reporting lag)\n - Which figure Metaculus reads if TrueUp changes its headline display\n - Possible late-August earnings-season restructuring announcements",
"forecast_prompt": "You are an elite superforecaster. Produce a probability distribution over the answer to this Metaculus numeric question.\n\n## Question\nAs of September 2, 2026, how many people will be impacted by tech layoffs according to TrueUp?\n\n## Description / Resolution Criteria\n## Description\nTechCrunch: [The AI layoff wave is becoming a powder keg](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/15/the-ai-layoff-wave-is-becoming-a-powder-keg/) \"Something strange is happening in tech right now. Companies are posting record profits and revenue while laying off tens of thousands of people, citing AI as the official explanation. So far this year, there have been an estimated 363 layoffs at tech companies this year, affecting nearly 150,000 people \u2014 a pace of about 974 people per day, 44% faster than last year \u2014 according to TrueUp, a tech job board and recruiting platform that also runs one of the most widely cited tech layoff trackers.\n\n\"The trend appears to be accelerating. Tech layoffs hit their highest single month in two years last month, with nearly 40,000 cuts, and AI was the most-cited reason for layoffs across every industry for the third month running, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray \u0026 Christmas.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"fc67491598487174\", \"sheet_id\": \"164\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of people impacted by layoffs across tech companies according to TrueUp\u0027s [Tech Layoffs Tracker](https://www.trueup.io/layoffs), as displayed when the tracker is accessed by Metaculus on or after September 2, 2026.\n\n## Range\nThe answer must be a number in [175000, 225000] (units: people).\n\n## Sub-question decomposition (planner)\n- (w=0.35) Will TrueUp\u0027s tracker, as accessed on/after September 2, 2026, display a 2026 year-to-date impacted-people figure of at least 230,000? \u2014 Anchors the central estimate: ~150k by mid-June 2026 at ~974/day implies ~230-240k by Sept 2 if the pace merely holds.\n- (w=0.30) Will the layoff pace from mid-June 2026 through September 2, 2026 be at least as fast as the ~974 people/day pace recorded in the first half of 2026? \u2014 The dominant driver of the extrapolation; summer months are historically slower, but the AI-driven wave was accelerating\n- (w=0.20) Will at least one single tech layoff event affecting 10,000+ employees be announced between June 15, 2026 and September 2, 2026? \u2014 Mega-events (Amazon/Intel/Microsoft-scale) create fat right tail and can add 20-50k in a single month.\n- (w=0.15) Will the headline figure Metaculus reads off TrueUp be the current-year (2026 YTD) count rather than an all-time or trailing-12-month cumulative figure? \u2014 Resolution ambiguity: TrueUp displays multiple aggregates; the wrong reading would put the answer near 1M+ instead of ~2\n\n## Synthesized evidence\n1. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 85 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp.io displayed (mid-August 2026) 533 layoffs in 2026 with 175,465 people impacted, a rate of 780 people per day.\n2. [sq2 | web_search | STRONG cred 75 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp went from ~150k (mid-June) to ~157k (late June) to ~175.5k (mid-August), implying roughly 400-450 people/day over that stretch.\n3. [sq1 | web_search | STRONG cred 80 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Straight-line extrapolation from 175,465 on ~Aug 13 at 400-780/day yields roughly 183,000-191,000 by September 2, 2026.\n4. [sq4 | web_search | STRONG cred 88 | UP | VERY_RECENT] TrueUp\u0027s tracker text reads \u0027So far in 2026, there have been 533 layoffs... 175,465 people impacted\u0027, with 2025 shown separately as a comparison.\n5. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 65 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] SkillSyncer and LayoffHedge both identify Oracle\u0027s 30,000-position cut as the largest single 2026 tech layoff, an event reported before mid-June 2026.\n6. [sq3 | web_search | MODERATE cred 70 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Layoffs.fyi reported the first week of August 2026 cuts came from Zillow, TikTok, Etsy and Google, totaling hundreds rather than thousands of jobs.\n7. [sq2 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] Analysis of Layoffs.fyi data projects the 2026 full-year tech total will land near 210,000 by December 31 on current pace.\n8. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | DOWN | VERY_RECENT] US unemployment was 4.1% in July 2026 (down 0.2pp YoY) and initial claims were 209,000 in August 2026, near historic lows.\n9. [sq2 | fred_data | MODERATE cred 95 | UP | VERY_RECENT] Information-sector employment (USINFO) stood at 2,780k in July 2026, down 80k year-over-year.\n10. [sq1 | web_search | MODERATE cred 60 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Trackers diverge sharply for mid-August 2026: Layoffs.fyi 125,759, LayoffHedge 168,755, TrueUp 175,465, SkillSyncer 205,832.\n11. [sq1 | code_execution | WEAK cred 30 | NEUTRAL | VERY_RECENT] Monte Carlo extrapolation anchored on the stale mid-June 150k/974-per-day figures produced a median of ~250,000 by September 2, with mega-event shocks.\n12. [sq3 | article_search | MODERATE cred 80 | NEUTRAL | DATED] The largest 2026 tech layoff announcements in news coverage clustered in April-May (Meta ~8,000, Microsoft buyouts ~7%, Intuit 3,000, Cisco thousands).\n\n## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.4M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M\n\nInformation gaps:\n - No direct TrueUp reading for late August / September 2, 2026\n - No itemized list of tech layoff events announced June 15 - Sept 2, 2026\n - Unclear whether TrueUp retroactively revises YTD counts upward\n - No base rate for August-September seasonality in tech layoff announcements\n\nKey uncertainties:\n - Whether a surprise 10,000+ mega-layoff lands before Sept 2\n - Reason for apparent TrueUp pace deceleration (real vs. reporting lag)\n - Which figure Metaculus reads if TrueUp changes its headline display\n - Possible late-August earnings-season restructuring announcements\n\n## Required pre-forecast walkthrough\n\nBefore giving percentiles, address these explicitly in your rationale:\n (a) The time left until the question resolves.\n (b) The outcome if NOTHING changes from today (the status quo value).\n (c) The outcome if the CURRENT TREND continues.\n (d) The expectations of experts / markets / base rates.\n (e) A plausible scenario that produces a LOW outcome (near p10).\n (f) A plausible scenario that produces a HIGH outcome (near p90).\n\n## Calibration guidance\n\n- **Be humble about tails.** Good forecasters set WIDE 90/10 intervals to account for unknown unknowns. Narrow tails get punished by the log score far more than slightly-biased medians.\n- **Status quo anchoring.** The p50 should be close to the status quo value unless you have strong evidence of a trend.\n- Don\u0027t pile mass at one value \u2014 if you\u0027re tempted, widen the spread by 20-50%.\n- **Anchor on markets/experts.** If liquid market prices, analyst forecasts, or community percentiles appear in the evidence, center your distribution on them and widen \u2014 don\u0027t override a liquid market without specific evidence it lacks.\n- **Relative-return / spread questions (\"how much will X\u0027s return exceed Y\u0027s\").** A near-zero median is usually right, but size the TAILS to the more VOLATILE leg, not to a generic 2-3pp spread. Two broad equity indices (e.g. Nasdaq-100 vs S\u0026P 500) do stay within roughly \u00b12-3pp over a two-week window. But when one leg is a commodity (crude oil, gold) or a single high-beta stock (e.g. Nvidia), the two-week realized spread regularly reaches \u00b110pp or more \u2014 crude-vs-equity spreads have hit \u00b118pp. In those cases set p10/p90 to at least \u00b110pp (\u00b115pp or wider for oil) while keeping the median near the status-quo spread; the 2-3pp intuition applies only to index-vs-index.\n- **Heavy-tailed one-off magnitudes (opening-weekend box office, product-launch or debut numbers).** Pre-event tracking for these routinely misses by \u00b140% or more, and results land both far above and far below the consensus. Do NOT treat the displayed [min, max] range as the plausible range or clamp p10/p90 to its edges: the outcome can fall outside the range in either direction (recent opening weekends resolved ~7% above a displayed ceiling in one case and roughly half the displayed floor in another). Set p10/p90 wide enough that a 2x-or-0.5x surprise versus your central estimate still lands inside the interval, and when concrete current tracking disagrees with historical/franchise base rates, weight the tracking.\n\n## Output\n\nReturn ONLY valid JSON, no markdown fences:\n\n{\n \"rationale\": \"\u003caddress (a) through (f) above, then state your distribution \u2014 6-10 sentences total\u003e\",\n \"p10\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p25\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p50\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p75\": \u003cnumber\u003e,\n \"p90\": \u003cnumber\u003e\n}\n\nPercentiles MUST be in non-decreasing order (p10 \u003c= p25 \u003c= p50 \u003c= p75 \u003c= p90).\n",
"models": [
"opus",
"secondary"
],
"p50": 186500.0,
"percentiles": {
"0.1": 178400.0,
"0.25": 182150.0,
"0.5": 186500.0,
"0.75": 192500.0,
"0.9": 203000.0
},
"rationale": "(a) Only ~3 weeks separate the last observed TrueUp reading (175,465 impacted, 533 layoffs, on ~Aug 13, 2026) from the Sept 2, 2026 resolution date. (b) Status quo \u2014 if the tracker barely moved \u2014 gives ~176-178k, right at the bottom of the allowed range. (c) Current trend: the incremental pace since mid-June has been roughly 400-450/day (150k mid-June \u2192 157k late June \u2192 175.5k mid-August), while TrueUp\u0027s own headline YTD average is 780/day; 20 days at 400-780/day adds 8,000-15,600, landing at ~183,500-191,000. (d) Cross-tracker evidence is noisy (Layoffs.fyi 126k, LayoffHedge 169k, SkillSyncer 206k), but the question resolves specifically on TrueUp\u0027s 2026 YTD headline, which the evidence confirms is the displayed figure; a Layoffs.fyi-based full-year projection of ~210k for December is broadly consistent with ~185k by early September. Macro data is mixed \u2014 low unemployment/claims argue against acceleration, but information-sector employment is down 80k YoY. (e) Low scenario: a quiet late-August (summer lull, only small Zillow/Etsy/Google-scale cuts of a few hundred each), no retroactive revisions, giving ~179-181k. (f) High scenario: a fresh mega-announcement (Amazon/Intel/Oracle-scale, 10k+) during the late-August restructuring/earnings window, plus TrueUp back-filling previously unreported events, pushing toward 198-210k, though the range caps at 225k. I center at ~186k with a right skew for mega-event risk and upward revisions, and keep the left tail near 180k since the 175k floor is already exceeded."
},
"plan": {
"combination_logic": "weighted_average",
"domain": "tech",
"n_sub_qs": 4,
"n_tools": 5,
"reasoning_approach": "Establish the mid-2026 anchor (~150k YTD, ~974/day) and extrapolate to Sept 2 with a Monte Carlo over pace and mega-event shocks; the sub-question probabilities weight whether the pace holds, whether a mega-layoff inflates the tail, and whether the displayed metric is YTD, blending into a median near ~230-250k with a right-skewed distribution.",
"sub_questions": [
{
"id": "sq1",
"question": "Will TrueUp\u0027s tracker, as accessed on/after September 2, 2026, display a 2026 year-to-date impacted-people figure of at least 230,000?",
"rationale": "Anchors the central estimate: ~150k by mid-June 2026 at ~974/day implies ~230-240k by Sept 2 if the pace merely holds.",
"weight": 0.35
},
{
"id": "sq2",
"question": "Will the layoff pace from mid-June 2026 through September 2, 2026 be at least as fast as the ~974 people/day pace recorded in the first half of 2026?",
"rationale": "The dominant driver of the extrapolation; summer months are historically slower, but the AI-driven wave was accelerating.",
"weight": 0.3
},
{
"id": "sq3",
"question": "Will at least one single tech layoff event affecting 10,000+ employees be announced between June 15, 2026 and September 2, 2026?",
"rationale": "Mega-events (Amazon/Intel/Microsoft-scale) create fat right tail and can add 20-50k in a single month.",
"weight": 0.2
},
{
"id": "sq4",
"question": "Will the headline figure Metaculus reads off TrueUp be the current-year (2026 YTD) count rather than an all-time or trailing-12-month cumulative figure?",
"rationale": "Resolution ambiguity: TrueUp displays multiple aggregates; the wrong reading would put the answer near 1M+ instead of ~250k.",
"weight": 0.15
}
],
"tool_requests": [
{
"parameters": {
"brief": "Find the most recent numbers displayed on TrueUp\u0027s tech layoffs tracker (trueup.io/layoffs): 2026 year-to-date number of people laid off, number of layoff events, layoffs per day pace, and how the tracker labels/displays these figures (YTD vs all-time). Also find monthly 2026 tech layoff totals from TrueUp, Layoffs.fyi, and Challenger Gray for Jan-Aug 2026, plus any large (10,000+) single-company tech layoff announcements in summer 2026.",
"max_searches": 5,
"question_title": "As of September 2, 2026, how many people will be impacted by tech layoffs according to TrueUp?"
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"parameters": {
"queries": [
"TrueUp tech layoffs tracker 2026 total people laid off",
"tech layoffs August 2026 total year to date",
"Challenger Gray July 2026 job cuts technology AI"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq4"
],
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_days": 120,
"queries": [
"tech layoffs 2026 TrueUp tracker people impacted",
"mass layoffs technology company thousands employees AI 2026",
"monthly tech layoff totals summer 2026"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"parameters": {
"code": "import numpy as np\nfrom datetime import date\n# Known anchor: ~150,000 people YTD as of 2026-06-15, ~974/day, 44% faster than 2025\nstart=date(2026,6,15); end=date(2026,9,2)\ndays=(end-start).days\nprint(\u0027days remaining:\u0027, days)\nbase=150000\nnp.random.seed(0)\n# simulate daily pace ratio vs H1 pace: summer slowdown vs acceleration\nsims=200000\npace_ratio=np.random.lognormal(mean=np.log(0.85), sigma=0.45, size=sims) # median 15% slowdown, wide\ndaily=974*pace_ratio\n# add mega-event shock: prob of 10k+ event(s)\nn_mega=np.random.poisson(0.8, sims)\nmega=n_mega*np.random.uniform(10000,30000,sims)\ntotal=base+daily*days+mega*0 # mega partially inside pace; test both\ntotal2=base+daily*days*0.9+mega\nfor t,name in [(total,\u0027no separate mega\u0027),(total2,\u0027with mega\u0027)]:\n print(name, [int(np.percentile(t,q)) for q in [5,10,25,50,75,90,95]])\n",
"description": "Monte Carlo extrapolation of TrueUp YTD 2026 layoff total to Sept 2, 2026 from the mid-June anchor of 150k at 974/day, with pace uncertainty and mega-event shocks."
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq1",
"sq2",
"sq3"
],
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"parameters": {
"lookback_months": 24,
"search_text": "information technology employment layoffs discharges JOLTS",
"series_ids": [
"UNRATE",
"ICSA",
"USINFO"
]
},
"target_sub_questions": [
"sq2"
],
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"question": {
"close_time": "2026-08-14T00:00:00Z",
"description": "## Description\nTechCrunch: [The AI layoff wave is becoming a powder keg](https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/15/the-ai-layoff-wave-is-becoming-a-powder-keg/) \"Something strange is happening in tech right now. Companies are posting record profits and revenue while laying off tens of thousands of people, citing AI as the official explanation. So far this year, there have been an estimated 363 layoffs at tech companies this year, affecting nearly 150,000 people \u2014 a pace of about 974 people per day, 44% faster than last year \u2014 according to TrueUp, a tech job board and recruiting platform that also runs one of the most widely cited tech layoff trackers.\n\n\"The trend appears to be accelerating. Tech layoffs hit their highest single month in two years last month, with nearly 40,000 cuts, and AI was the most-cited reason for layoffs across every industry for the third month running, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray \u0026 Christmas.\"\n\n`{\"format\": \"bot_tournament_question\", \"info\": {\"hash_id\": \"fc67491598487174\", \"sheet_id\": \"164\"}}`\n\n## Resolution Criteria\nThis question resolves as the number of people impacted by layoffs across tech companies according to TrueUp\u0027s [Tech Layoffs Tracker](https://www.trueup.io/layoffs), as displayed when the tracker is accessed by Metaculus on or after September 2, 2026.",
"open_lower": true,
"open_upper": true,
"q_max": 225000,
"q_min": 175000,
"question_type": "numeric",
"title": "As of September 2, 2026, how many people will be impacted by tech layoffs according to TrueUp?",
"units": "people"
},
"research": {
"cross_market_brief": "## Cross-Market Signals\n\n### Polymarket\n- \"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.70, Volume: $7.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.01, Volume: $8.3M\n- \"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.4M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.28, Volume: $6.8M\n- \"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?\" \u2192 Yes: 0.00, Volume: $4.9M",
"errors": [],
"has_cross_market": true,
"n_errors": 0,
"n_tools": 5,
"tools": [
{
"elapsed_s": 24.64,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "14 citations",
"tool_name": "claude_news"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 29.53,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "20 results",
"tool_name": "web_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.91,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "26 articles",
"tool_name": "article_search"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 0.49,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "Monte Carlo extrapolation of TrueUp YTD 2026 layoff total to",
"tool_name": "code_execution"
},
{
"elapsed_s": 32.46,
"error": null,
"success": true,
"summary": "3 series",
"tool_name": "fred_data"
}
]
},
"synthesis": {
"error": null,
"evidence": [
{
"claim": "TrueUp.io displayed (mid-August 2026) 533 layoffs in 2026 with 175,465 people impacted, a rate of 780 people per day.",
"credibility": 85,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "TrueUp went from ~150k (mid-June) to ~157k (late June) to ~175.5k (mid-August), implying roughly 400-450 people/day over that stretch.",
"credibility": 75,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Straight-line extrapolation from 175,465 on ~Aug 13 at 400-780/day yields roughly 183,000-191,000 by September 2, 2026.",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "TrueUp\u0027s tracker text reads \u0027So far in 2026, there have been 533 layoffs... 175,465 people impacted\u0027, with 2025 shown separately as a comparison.",
"credibility": 88,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "STRONG",
"sub_question_id": "sq4"
},
{
"claim": "SkillSyncer and LayoffHedge both identify Oracle\u0027s 30,000-position cut as the largest single 2026 tech layoff, an event reported before mid-June 2026.",
"credibility": 65,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Layoffs.fyi reported the first week of August 2026 cuts came from Zillow, TikTok, Etsy and Google, totaling hundreds rather than thousands of jobs.",
"credibility": 70,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
},
{
"claim": "Analysis of Layoffs.fyi data projects the 2026 full-year tech total will land near 210,000 by December 31 on current pace.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "US unemployment was 4.1% in July 2026 (down 0.2pp YoY) and initial claims were 209,000 in August 2026, near historic lows.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "DOWN",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Information-sector employment (USINFO) stood at 2,780k in July 2026, down 80k year-over-year.",
"credibility": 95,
"direction": "UP",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "fred_data",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq2"
},
{
"claim": "Trackers diverge sharply for mid-August 2026: Layoffs.fyi 125,759, LayoffHedge 168,755, TrueUp 175,465, SkillSyncer 205,832.",
"credibility": 60,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "web_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "Monte Carlo extrapolation anchored on the stale mid-June 150k/974-per-day figures produced a median of ~250,000 by September 2, with mega-event shocks.",
"credibility": 30,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": false,
"recency": "VERY_RECENT",
"source": "code_execution",
"strength": "WEAK",
"sub_question_id": "sq1"
},
{
"claim": "The largest 2026 tech layoff announcements in news coverage clustered in April-May (Meta ~8,000, Microsoft buyouts ~7%, Intuit 3,000, Cisco thousands).",
"credibility": 80,
"direction": "NEUTRAL",
"priced_in": true,
"recency": "DATED",
"source": "article_search",
"strength": "MODERATE",
"sub_question_id": "sq3"
}
],
"information_gaps": [
"No direct TrueUp reading for late August / September 2, 2026",
"No itemized list of tech layoff events announced June 15 - Sept 2, 2026",
"Unclear whether TrueUp retroactively revises YTD counts upward",
"No base rate for August-September seasonality in tech layoff announcements"
],
"key_uncertainties": [
"Whether a surprise 10,000+ mega-layoff lands before Sept 2",
"Reason for apparent TrueUp pace deceleration (real vs. reporting lag)",
"Which figure Metaculus reads if TrueUp changes its headline display",
"Possible late-August earnings-season restructuring announcements"
],
"n_evidence": 12
},
"timings": {
"forecast": 35.56,
"plan": 29.67,
"research": 32.47,
"synthesis": 48.95
}
}